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This Is It: Mike Maloney’s Most Important Video Ever – Helium, Oil, Gold, Silver & the Iran Crisis — Transcript

by Mike Maloney & Freedom Farms · 8,303 words · 1,171 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00You cannot make a microchip uh that
0:03especially the advanced chips that are
0:05required for AI without helium. It is
0:09absolutely necessary. If a third of the
0:11world's helium goes away, a third of the
0:14world's microchips go away. Now,
0:18this is the top 10 stocks in the stock
0:21market in the United States. And you'll
0:24notice down here at the bottom is Eli
0:26Lillian Company. So that is the only one
0:29that is not a tech stock. These are all
0:32the companies that the entire United
0:35States of America is betting on for the
0:37future. The stock market is propped up.
0:40This is more than a third of the stock
0:42market's entire value. And what do they
0:45need to do all of these big data centers
0:48and the cloud computing? They need
0:50massive amounts of energy, which we no
0:52longer have. And they need massive
0:55amounts of computer chips, which we no
0:57longer have. They also need massive
0:59amounts of copper, which the world is
1:01not going to have anymore because of the
1:03lack of uh of sulfuric acid because of
1:06the lack of sulfur. And they need
1:08massive amounts of silver. And silver
1:10has been underinvested uh in in for
1:13decades. There's been a structural
1:15deficit for the last seven years. You
1:18may want to consider looking at silver.
1:20We're going to have a wave of inflation,
1:22but it's going to be really weird. Asset
1:24prices are going to fall. They're going
1:26to deflate. But all the things that you
1:28need, all the things that you eat, the
1:31stuff that you drive, that's all going
1:33up and it's going up big time. Hi, I'm
1:36Mike Maloney and I believe that this is
1:38one of the most important videos I've
1:40ever done. you're going to want to watch
1:43this whole thing. And please, if you if
1:45you have people that you care about,
1:47copy the URL and email them the link. Uh
1:51we don't know how the YouTube algorithms
1:53are going to handle this and so on, but
1:56this is important for you and it's
1:58important for anybody that you care
2:01about because I have been getting ready
2:03for this moment now for 24 years and
2:06this is it. We are there right now and I
2:11believe everybody needs to understand
2:13what's going on and take action to
2:15protect themselves. First, I just want
2:17to mention that I'm going to be at uh
2:20Investor Summit on Sand, which is going
2:23to be in Puerto Rico. Uh and it's the
2:2613th through the 18th of September. I'll
2:28tell you more about that later, but
2:30let's get right in first to the scale of
2:34all of the bubbles that currently exist.
2:37They're not just superb bubbles. These
2:39are super hyperbubbles.
2:41And first of all, we've got the Buffett
2:43indicator. The reason I'm presenting
2:45this information first is because when
2:49the stock markets crash, the Federal
2:52Reserve's uh uh modus operande is you
2:55take interest rates to zero and you
2:57print like crazy. Actually, don't they
2:59don't print anymore. They just type. The
3:02difference between one and one trillion
3:05is 12 zeros. That's all it takes. So the
3:09Buffett indicator is uh the total US
3:13stock market capitalization divided by
3:15US GDP. So it's the size of of all the
3:19publicly listed stocks compared to the
3:21size of the economy. And throughout
3:24history, it seems like uh the the
3:26information that I have shows that it uh
3:28is fairly valued somewhere between 40%
3:31the size of the economy and 80% the size
3:33of the economy. It shouldn't be possible
3:36for the publicly listed companies, which
3:38excludes all of the little dry cleaners
3:40and restaurants that you go to. It
3:42excludes most of the business in the
3:44United States. It should not be 238%
3:49the size of the economy. That is insane.
3:52This is another way of looking at the
3:54same metric. It's got some other metrics
3:56in here. uh the Schiller's PE ratio,
3:58which we'll get to later, and the S&P
4:01500 PE ratio. But what you see here is
4:05the bubble in 1929, the tech bubble in
4:08the year 2000, uh just before the global
4:11financial crisis when the Buffett
4:13indicator peaked, and then we've got
4:16where we are today, which is totally
4:19insane. Uh you're talking about 50%
4:22larger than the 1929 peak. And when that
4:26bubble burst, it led to the Great
4:28Depression. You're talking about um uh
4:31maybe
4:33uh the we're at a probably uh 30% or
4:38more uh larger than the tech bubble of
4:42uh 2000. And uh then the financial
4:47crisis stocks weren't really in a bubble
4:50during the they were they've been in a
4:52bubble this whole century but they
4:54weren't in a super bubble during the
4:55financial crisis. The financial crisis
4:57was real estate driven. This is another
5:00way of looking at the scale of the
5:01bubbles. Uh this is the stock market,
5:05the dotcom bubble and where we are
5:07today. And this is dividend yields and
5:10it's sort of an inverse indicator. uh
5:13the lower the dividend yield on the
5:15stock shows you that you if it's too
5:18low, you paid too much. So when the
5:21price on stocks is too high compared to
5:23how much earnings they've got per share,
5:26the dividend yield is lower and lower
5:28and it always uh is lowest right at the
5:31peaks of bubbles just before a crash. uh
5:35this was when uh the real estate peaked
5:40in 2007 leading to the global financial
5:43crisis. So dividend yields rose when the
5:47stock market crashed because real estate
5:50the real estate bubble had popped. This
5:52is another way of looking at the stock
5:54market. And this is just from the Great
5:56Depression to today. And this is the S&P
5:59500 index. And I've just drawn a couple
6:01of lines around it. And you can see that
6:05whenever it hits the top of that trend
6:07line, there's it's usually followed by
6:10some sort of crash and a reversion to
6:12undervalued. It hits the bottom of that
6:14trend line. And we had that here at the
6:16tech bubble of 2000. It went above that
6:19trend line and then it touched the
6:21bottom after the global financial crisis
6:23in 2008 and once again we are above the
6:28top of this trend channel. Uh this is
6:32inflation adjusted. It's the same uh
6:34chart, inflation adjusted. However, the
6:37consumer price index information only
6:39goes back to about 1953.
6:42So this one doesn't go all the way back
6:43to the Great Depression. But what you
6:45see here is sort of the same
6:46information. Uh you know, overvalued,
6:49undervalued, overvalued, undervalued,
6:52way overvalued again. So it's the same
6:55information inflation adjusted. Now
6:59this is Dr. Robert Schiller's cape
7:02ratio. It's the cyclally adjusted price
7:04earnings ratio. So uh he's he's taken
7:08the price earnings ratio. So it's the uh
7:11price of a stock divided by the earnings
7:14per share of the stock. So how much did
7:17it cost you? How much are you getting
7:19paid to own it? And uh what he's done
7:23here is taken this information back to
7:251880. Uh, now the S&P 500 actually only
7:29goes to 1950, but again, his researchers
7:33compiled information going all the way
7:35back to 1880. Now, I've been presenting
7:38uh Dr. Robert Schiller's information
7:40since before anybody knew who he was.
7:43Now, it's called the Case Schiller S&P
7:45index. Uh, so Standard andors pays him.
7:50But back when I first started presenting
7:52this in 2004, he was just a Yale
7:55University professor and nobody knew who
7:57he was. But um there's an average here
8:01until you get to this century which I
8:04call the the bubble century. And you can
8:07see overvalued, undervalued, overvalued,
8:09undervalued. And then we go into the
8:12bubble century and it sort of became
8:14normal to be to pay double what we used
8:18to pay per share compared to the
8:20earnings. So now you're paying 30 times
8:22earnings instead of 15 being fairly
8:25valued. What caused this? This is all
8:28passive inflows. It was the 1974 Orisa
8:31Act that created the IRA and the 401k.
8:36And uh as time went on uh people uh
8:41would have a certain amount deducted
8:44every week or month from their paycheck
8:47and it would go to their brokerage
8:49account and the brokerage account uh the
8:51broker would uh direct it toward you
8:54know you'd specify you want this much in
8:56this ETF and that much in this tech
8:58sector or whatever. And so it's just
9:01passive inflows with nobody picking a
9:04stock or or deciding exactly. It's just
9:07constant cash going in. When you have
9:09more cash going into a market than
9:11coming out, it has to rise. And so it's
9:14that simple. This is a brainless thing.
9:17And it's caused what I call the bubble
9:19century. And what you see here is the uh
9:22the bubble, the tech bubble of 2000 and
9:26then the market crash. But right
9:30here we here we've got the 1929 peak.
9:33When that bubble popped, it led to the
9:35Great Depression. Uh then we have the
9:39the tech bubble of 2000.
9:42And this was the real estate bubble.
9:46Stocks were not in a giant bubble when
9:49real estate went into the 2007 bubble.
9:52But when real estate fell apart, it
9:55drugged the stock market with it down to
9:57what was used to be considered fair
9:59value. It never actually visited
10:01undervalued. But look at where we are
10:03are today on this measurement. We're in
10:06the second largest bubble in history.
10:08This is the only measurement that you
10:10can look at the stock market with that
10:12shows it not being in the biggest bubble
10:15in history. We truly are in the biggest
10:17bubble in history right now. Now,
10:20[clears throat] this is Dr. Robert
10:22Schiller's real home prices. So, he's
10:24taken um homes and inflation adjusted
10:28them. And to do that, he had to create
10:30his own CPI. And I believe that's the
10:32reason you see like the further you go
10:34back into history, the sketchier the
10:37data gets. it's it's harder and harder
10:39to compile really accurate data. So,
10:41they had to go to libraries here and get
10:44old newspaper articles and uh so I think
10:47that's the reason these aren't perfectly
10:49uh um level with each other. Uh but this
10:53should be all indexed to 100, but what
10:56it's showing is the um I've been I've
10:59been showing this. So that's 100 that
11:02should be fair value normal. And I've
11:05been presenting this information. Uh
11:08there's the 2000 um
11:11uh tech bubble. Uh and and real estate
11:15was not in a bubble during the 2000 tech
11:19bubble. I've been showing this since
11:212004. Uh and that back then he was just
11:25a college professor. Nobody knew who he
11:27was. There we've got the 2007
11:30uh global financial crisis caused by
11:33real estate. So this is the first time
11:34that real estate was in a super
11:37hyperbubble and then and here we are
11:41today. The greatest bubble in history.
11:44It's a super hyperbubble in 2026. And so
11:48when this pops, it basically says that
11:51that residential real estate has to fall
11:54by more than half to get back to fair
11:56value, not necessarily undervalued. Now
11:59what I've done here, I don't care about
12:01what the dates are. I don't care about
12:03what the scale is. I just want you to
12:05see where the super hyperbubbles are and
12:09I've marked them here. So, in real
12:10estate, we had 2007 and we've got today.
12:14Now, the information on the stock
12:16market, this goes back to 1890. The
12:20information on the stock market went
12:21back to 1880. So, I cut off 10 years off
12:25of this information. So, they're taking
12:27up the same space on the screen. And
12:30then I'm going to mark the super
12:32hyperbubbles of 1929, the tech bubble of
12:362000, and where we are today. And now
12:39I'm going to take away the chart and
12:41just show you where those bubbles are.
12:44And this is the very first time in
12:47history where we have simultaneous super
12:49hyperbubbles in both real estate and
12:52stocks. This is extremely dangerous
12:55because all bubbles burst always. There
12:58is no other way about it. When you go
13:00into a super hyperbubble, this is
13:02usually because of some sort of man
13:04manipulation usually caused by the
13:06Federal Reserve, but we've got those
13:09bubbles and simultaneously uh this is
13:13three times leveraged ETFs. So if the S
13:17if this is a S&P three times leverage
13:19and the S&P goes up 10%, your investment
13:22goes up 30%. But it cuts both ways. And
13:25when a bubble pops, the people that are
13:27invested in this kind of stuff get
13:29completely wiped out. And here we are at
13:33the uh biggest concentration in history
13:37of these superleveraged uh uh stock
13:41market products. And then uh this is uh
13:44really interesting. It is margin debt in
13:48brokerage accounts uh compared to the
13:51size of the currency supply. how much
13:54currency exists. So this is the M2
13:56currency supply and we are at the
13:59biggest bubble in history as far as
14:01people borrowing money to borrowing
14:05currency uh to invest in stocks. Very
14:08very dangerous. Again uh leverage cuts
14:12both directions and actually the the way
14:14the math works it's it cuts even sharper
14:19on the way down than it does on the way
14:21up. you end up with more leverage on the
14:24way down. Now, what happened when the
14:26tech bubble popped? How much did the uh
14:29NASDAQ uh lose? Uh and it was about 85%
14:34back when the bubble in 2000 popped.
14:3785%.
14:38Now, can you imagine what's going to
14:41happen when all these baby boomers and
14:43everybody else that's that's uh deriving
14:46that they're planning on being able to
14:48retire on their IRAs and they see their
14:50IRA fall by 80%. I believe it's going to
14:54be more this time. I'm going to show you
14:56why this is really important. Stick
14:58around. Uh then there is the uh
15:02concentration in just a few stocks. And
15:05according to this chart that I believe
15:07is uh Bloom Yeah. Bloomberg information
15:11uh right now the 24 largest stocks uh
15:15account for more than 50% of the total
15:19market capitalization of of the stock
15:23market. 24 stocks being more valuable
15:27than all the rest of the stocks
15:29combined. Uh, and then here is the top
15:3310 stocks, and they come up with
15:35different data than I do. This is 43% it
15:38says of the Is this the S&P? It's stock
15:42market. No, S&P 500. Uh, so the top 10
15:46stocks, I've got some current data
15:48toward the end of this uh, presentation.
15:51So, now we've looked at the bubbles.
15:53Let's look at what could pop the
15:55bubbles. And the very first thing
15:58straight of hormuz and uh so we're going
16:02to really dig into this and what how it
16:05is suddenly disrupting the world the war
16:08that the US declared on Iran. Um and but
16:13first I want to urge you if you want to
16:16understand what is going on in the
16:19Middle East right now what you really
16:21need to do is watch this video. We'll
16:24put a link down in the description
16:27below. Uh and this guy uh Robert uh Pap
16:33uh he has been modeling war with Iran
16:36for more than 20 years and he has
16:38advised every president from 2001 to
16:412024 on this and he really knows the
16:45psychology of what is going on and uh
16:49the motivations that Iran has that
16:52Israel has that the US uh lacks I guess.
16:56But um if you watch this, yes it's long,
16:59an hour and 41 minutes, but you will
17:01know more about the reasons that all of
17:04this is happening than 99.9% of the
17:07people that you uh encounter. So please
17:10watch that video. Now
17:14this presentation I first gave I I keep
17:17on expanding it, updating it and
17:19improving it. I first gave this at the
17:21beginning of May at an event in Puerto
17:24Rico and then improved it uh updated it
17:27and gave it again at Rebel Capitalist
17:29Live at the end of May and it was titled
17:32financial resilience and survival in a
17:34dangerous and uncertain world. But now
17:38it is titled this is it because we are
17:41there right now. What I've been getting
17:43prepared for for the last 24 years is is
17:47right around the corner. When I first
17:49presented this, uh, this is the total
17:52barrel. It's millions of barrels of oil
17:54per day, uh, making it through the
17:56straight of Hormuz. And it just shut off
17:59like a light switch. Uh, and then I
18:02updated it further. This is the total
18:04number of ships and it's going out
18:07through March. Uh, now the
18:09[clears throat] World Trade Organization
18:12has straight of Hormuz tracker on their
18:15website.
18:16So this is the latest information and
18:19it's unbiased information. If you're
18:21getting information uh they sort of
18:23fudge things. Uh I've stopped using uh
18:28any US media. It all has spin in it. Uh
18:32I mean how many times have we won this
18:35war? How many times has the straight
18:36been opened? And uh we our news media
18:40you just can't trust anymore. Uh so this
18:44is directly from the the World Trade
18:46Organization's website. The gray line
18:48here is the 7-day moving average of last
18:52year 2025.
18:54And um uh they used all of 25 as an
18:58index. So they indexed the amount of oil
19:01making it or ships making it through the
19:04straight of Hormuz uh for 2025. And then
19:07the gold line is this year and you can
19:10see it just shut off. So this goes from
19:12January of 25, January of 26, there's
19:16March, and it turned off like a light
19:18switch. This is the first memorandum of
19:20understanding where they allowed a few
19:22ships through, but now there's basically
19:26no traffic. This is 20% of the world's
19:29energy output. Uh this is the amount of
19:33liqufied natural gas uh making it
19:36through. Now, liqufied natural gas uh
19:39has to be kept very cold. It's in these
19:41c cryogenic chambers. And you can see
19:44that when it gets hot in the summer, the
19:46amount coming through the straight goes
19:48down because it's boiling off rapidly.
19:51Uh but again, only a few ships making it
19:54through here. This you will see is
19:58incredibly important later that there
20:00are things that um are part of the
20:03supply chain of the entire world.
20:06everything that we use that are derived
20:10uh from these uh you'll see all of that
20:12later. Uh now these are some quotes.
20:14What we are currently witnessing today
20:16is the fastest onshore oil inventory
20:19decline in history and that's from HFI
20:23research. They specialize in oil
20:26research. Uh and then
20:29uh commercial inventories of crude oil,
20:32gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all
20:35run down. We've modeled it. We're
20:38approaching unheard of inventory levels.
20:41I mean really, really low levels. Then
20:44you'll see uh price shoot up to $150
20:48$160 a barrel. Um when the price gets uh
20:54to a certain level, demand destruction
20:57brings it back into balance. Prices get
21:00so high it becomes unaffordable. Who
21:03said that? Neil Chapman, the senior vice
21:06president of Exxon. Exon Mobile is
21:09warning about this. The world is running
21:11out. Now he was talking about uh all the
21:13private in inventories. He wasn't
21:15talking about the uh strategic uh the
21:18the s strategic petroleum reserve that
21:22the United States has. I'll get to that
21:24information in a moment. Uh this is also
21:27about private inventories. We are 9
21:30million barrels uh away from hitting a
21:34storage level that's basically the
21:36equivalent of living paycheck to
21:38paycheck for gasoline and distillates.
21:41distill its meaning diesel, jet fuel and
21:44such.
21:45Uh the strategic petroleum reserve falls
21:48to the lowest level since 1983.
21:51USA strategic petroleum reserve is 56%
21:56empty. That's how we started uh this
21:59period of time where we just cut off 20%
22:02of the world's energy. Uh this is the
22:05strategic petroleum reserve. This was
22:08the first Gulf War. That's the second
22:10Gulf War. This is Hurricane Katrina.
22:13This is the Arab Spring and and Yemen
22:16and some other places that oil came
22:19from. And then uh Russia invaded the
22:22Ukraine. Gas prices shot up in the
22:24United States in uh just like 6 months
22:27later, there was supposed to be the
22:29midterm elections and the Democrats
22:32controlled the House and the Senate, and
22:34Biden didn't want to lose that. So what
22:36happened? They drained the strategic
22:38petroleum reserve to try and keep
22:41Americans feeling warm and fuzzy about,
22:44you know, it kept oil prices down. But
22:47we ended up starting this from these
22:49levels. What do we have now? We've got
22:51midterms coming up. We've got a
22:53president that has sort of made himself
22:56unpopular with what I believe is a huge
22:58mistake. this this war uh thinking, you
23:02know, they'll just kill all the leaders
23:03and we'll be in and out in a week just
23:05like Venezuela. Uh you know, I don't
23:08know what your opinion is on this. I'm
23:10just showing you what the consequences
23:12are. But what is probably going to
23:15happen is the same darn thing. Trying to
23:18keep Americans feeling warm and fuzzy
23:20going into the midterm elections. It's
23:22just history repeating. Now
23:25uh the uh what you've seen is the result
23:28of the strait of Hormuz and Iran and it
23:32squeezed Ukraine Russia war right out of
23:35the news cycle and it's like everybody
23:37forgot about this but what has been
23:40happening uh in Ukraine and Russia
23:43Ukraine has been doing drone strikes
23:45strikes on almost every Russian oil
23:48refinery and Russia has gone from an one
23:52of the world's major oil exporters to an
23:54oil importer. And so, not only have they
23:59stopped supplying the world, but they've
24:02increased the demand. So, just when
24:04we've lost 20% of the world's uh oil
24:07output through the strait, Russia uh is
24:10now in and this is on a massive scale
24:14the stuff that is happening. And it's
24:16not just the oil refineries. uh Ukraine
24:20is now they're both sides are now
24:24attacking uh public infrastructure. So
24:27they're trying to really hurt the
24:28populations. This is the equivalent of
24:31Amazon in Russia and they they've taken
24:34out four out of the five warehouses and
24:37all the goods and stuff that were in
24:38there that people order online. Um so we
24:43have Ukraine Ukrainian drone strikes
24:46force Russia to suspend shipping in the
24:49Sea of Oz. Um
24:52Ukraine drones struck 15 more Russian
24:55ships as Sea of Oz uh campaign total
24:59reaches 105 ships. Uh Ukraine expands
25:03drone campaign to the Black Sea and hits
25:0620 Russian vessels including oil
25:09tankers. The Ukraine strikes 136 Russian
25:13ships in 10 days as Black Sea. So this
25:16is separate. This is sea of Ozav. This
25:19is the Black Sea. 135 in 10 days as
25:23Black Sea drone campaign expands. Uh
25:26Ukraine drone travels 2500 km in 12
25:30hours to attack oil refinery in Siberia.
25:35CIA confirms. And Russia's that was
25:39Russia's biggest oil refinery. Russia's
25:42biggest oil refinery just went dark. So
25:45100% offline after Ukrainian drone
25:49struck it deep in Siberia and kilometer
25:52long gas lines followed. So now this is
25:56a map of and this is old now. Uh I've
25:59presented this at Rebel Capitalist. Uh
26:02these are all of the oil refineries that
26:04had already been hit. The one that we're
26:06talking about is right here. So, the
26:09Ukraine struck that and that was the
26:11biggest oil refinery. Uh, this is what
26:14it looks like. These are the ships that
26:17they're blowing up. Uh, and I want you
26:20to remember this word throughout the
26:21rest of this presentation,
26:23infrastructure, and the estimates are 3
26:26to 5 years to rebuild. So even if the
26:29strait opened up tomorrow and peace
26:32broke out between Russia and Ukraine and
26:35everything was rosy, we're not getting
26:37back to energy levels for at least 3 to
26:40five the energy levels that we had at
26:41the beginning of this year. We will not
26:44see that again for 3 to 5 years. It's
26:46infrastructure all over. So it's Iran,
26:49Kuwait, uh Oman, Ukraine, and Russia.
26:54And it will take years to rebuild. Now
26:57look at the scale of this. These
26:58apartment buildings in the foreground
27:00here and how far back those oil
27:03refineries are. This is really, really
27:07big and scary stuff. It's the entire
27:10world gone crazy. Okay, this is the
27:13result. There are fights breaking out
27:15over gasoline at gas stations. Uh there
27:18are these incredible lines to get into
27:21gas stations that remind me very much of
27:24the 1970s. I lived through this. Look at
27:27that line of cars trying to get into one
27:29gas station. Uh and it's happening all
27:32over Russia. And uh they've uh halted
27:36all exports of uh diesel and jet fuel.
27:40Uh and so this is really bad and it's
27:45going to become worldwide very very
27:48soon. uh everything that they are going
27:50through and here's uh an attack and oil
27:53refineries going up. Uh so anyway uh
27:57that's enough of this. We're going to
27:59get back to all of the data now. So uh
28:02Russia, one of the world's biggest oil
28:05exporters, moves to import fuel as drone
28:08strikes squeeze the supply. Russia halts
28:11oil exports amid shortages. Uh, Russia
28:15bans diesel exports amid heavy Ukraine
28:18attacks on refineries.
28:21Russia halts jet fuel exports. Uh, as
28:24Ukraine cripples Russian refining,
28:27global diesel markets pay the price. And
28:30so this is Brent crude, uh, one of the
28:34types of worldwide crude that has a
28:36futures market. And you see before the
28:39war and then where we are today. Now
28:42this was that first memorandum of
28:45understanding where they signed an
28:47agreement that basically says we don't
28:49agree on sorry
28:52and uh but we agree to continue to talk.
28:55That was what the memorandum of
28:57understanding basically said uh this is
29:01gasoline. So this was the drop with the
29:03memorandum of understanding in gasoline.
29:06It didn't translate. So the the crude
29:09oil and then the refined product stayed
29:13high. Uh you know, we're talking about a
29:15buck 75 down here and then we're talking
29:19375 at the peak and we're back at three.
29:23So we're talking enormous price
29:25increases that haven't quite made it all
29:28the way to the gas pump yet. Is the gas
29:30pump uh uh more than double what it was
29:34back in January? It's higher, but it's
29:37not double. Uh, so [clears throat] the
29:401973 oil embargo uh caused a peak global
29:45oil supply reduction of approximately
29:487%.
29:49The current 2026 USIsraeli Iran war has
29:54caused a significantly larger disruption
29:58uh around 11.5%.
30:01This data is it's from Forbes magazine
30:04except this was before Ukraine started
30:06striking all of Russia's uh oil
30:10refineries. This was just the straight
30:13of Hormuz being closed down. Now what
30:16happened? I lived through this in the
30:1870s. I remember it. I had sort of a
30:21special exemption because I was a
30:24traveling salesman with commercial
30:25plates. But uh for for the first time in
30:29US histories, states did not get to set
30:32the speed limits. There was a national
30:34speed limit of 55 m an hour. Gas
30:37rationing set for Monday. Now gas
30:40rationing. This is one of the problems.
30:42When government intervenes on anything,
30:44they're going, "Oh, poor people still
30:46need to be able to get to work, so we're
30:48going to have to ration gas instead of
30:50letting supply and demand be set into
30:53equilibrium by price." That's what price
30:55discovery does. And if they had let it
30:58go up enough, these gas lines would not
31:01have developed. But instead, they
31:03decided to ration it out. If you had an
31:05even numbered license plate, if it ended
31:07in an even number, you could only fill
31:09up on evenumbered calendar days. Odd the
31:12same. So if you your mother died and you
31:15had a funeral to go to in San Francisco
31:17on the wrong day, you ran out of gas
31:19halfway and you got stuck. This was a
31:22huge hardship on everybody. Another
31:25thing that they did is they would only
31:27allow so much per car. Now, what happens
31:29when you can't like fill your tank up
31:31each week? If you if you've got if you
31:33get a quarter tank, you got to go to the
31:36gas station four more times that week.
31:38And the result of all of the government
31:41intervention was all of these gas lines
31:44developing everywhere. I remember
31:47sitting in gas. I could fill up any day,
31:50but I remember sitting in gas lines for
31:5245 minutes to get into a gas station. It
31:55was a total nightmare. And the result of
31:59all of this um and by the way, so uh
32:03pumps would run out of gas and then uh
32:07this was global. This is England and
32:09sorry, no petrol. Um,
32:13now the result of that, this is this S&P
32:16500, the Yam Kapour war, and then the
32:19embargo was declared by all of the uh
32:22OPEC nations, the oil producing
32:24countries that wanted to punish anybody
32:26that was supporting the war. And then
32:30just like a a week or two later, the
32:33stock market finally started to crash.
32:36And it took um if this is the end of
32:40October like the third week of October
32:43to the first week of October the
32:46following year. So you're talking 11
32:49months and uh one year of the uh taking
32:52the stock market to bottom. Now uh I
32:56turned this into a percentage chart so
32:59that we could see how far the stock
33:01market crashed and it was about 45%.
33:04And then I did a 20-year chart here. I
33:08wanted to see how long did it take to
33:10get into permanent recovery. Uh where
33:13your stocks were always above the level
33:16of when the war started. And it was
33:19about 9 years that it took. And here we
33:24have a percentage basis. And uh it took
33:27that 9 years to uh get back into
33:30permanent profit. Uh and you can see
33:33that it was up after 20 years from the
33:36beginning of the war it was up 325%.
33:39Ah but is that purchasing power? No.
33:42That's the points on on the S&P 500. If
33:46you adjust it for inflation like this,
33:48you see that you were actually
33:51underwater for about 17 years. the
33:54entire US economy was set back by 17
33:58years from that war that uh was only a
34:027% reduction in in uh oil. Now we have
34:05an 11 12% but now we've added Russia to
34:08the mix. They've become demand instead
34:11of supply and so I don't know exactly
34:14what the percentage is but it's probably
34:16somewhere close to 20%. Now this is one
34:19of the most important charts you're
34:21going to see. This is world GDP, real
34:24GDP, uh, compared to world energy
34:27consumption. Look at the correlation.
34:30Chris Martinson often says that the
34:32economy is energy and energy is the
34:35economy. You just can't have an economy
34:38without energy. And so the the uh better
34:42a country does, the more they have to
34:45consume energy. Uh now the problem with
34:48this data I wish that it uh from the 80s
34:52they're collecting data every year and
34:54you can see some little wrinkles there.
34:57I wish we could see the 73 oil embargo,
35:01the uh Great Depression in here, but you
35:04can't because they've got a data point
35:06every decade, two decades, three
35:08decades, even 40 years between one data
35:11point and the next as you go back to the
35:14year 1820.
35:17But it proves a point and the point is
35:19that energy consumption and GDP are
35:23basically one and the same. There are a
35:25couple little wrinkles here. This is the
35:27global financial crisis of 2008. Uh all
35:31economic activity shrunk and we used
35:33less oil. This is CO and we shut down
35:37the world economy and people stopped
35:40driving and we used less oil. But
35:42they're tiny little wrinkles compared to
35:44what is coming. Uh now I want to just
35:47remind everybody I'm going to be at this
35:49event. It's the 24th annual investor
35:52summit on sand. Now, usually it's summit
35:55on Sea. They do it on a cruise ship. Uh
35:57Robert Helms here has been producing
36:00this for uh 24 years. This year it's in
36:04San Juan, Puerto Rico, featuring Ken
36:06Mroy, uh Brent Johnson. He's a great
36:10when it comes to economics and what's
36:12happening currently. Elizabeth Tresp,
36:14some gold guys, Peter Schiff, Dana
36:17Samuelson, and me. And the dates are the
36:2118th uh the 13th through the 18th of
36:24September in San Juan, Puerto Rico. And
36:28if you go there and register, there's an
36:30add-on day where you can come up and
36:32visit my farm. If you put in there that
36:35you were referred by Mike Maloney,
36:37there's a very good chance that we will
36:39be having dinner together. There's two
36:41nights. Uh there's tables of for 10, so
36:44there will be me and nine guests having
36:46dinner uh uh for two different nights.
36:49So, you have a pretty good chance of
36:51having dinner with me. There is an
36:54add-on day where you can come up to the
36:56farm on uh Friday and uh and see what
37:00we're doing up there and how I have been
37:02getting prepared for all of this. So, go
37:04to summitons.com
37:07uh and sign up for this. So, uh our
37:11country, our choice says Trump just
37:14declared a national fertilizer
37:16emergency. Uh, and this was July 9th.
37:21Uh, and so here's the official White
37:23House announcement of this. So, um, Iran
37:28attacked Oman. Uh, and also the
37:32[clears throat] the So, this is URA
37:34based fertilizer that is extracted from
37:38liqufied natural gas in Oman. And how
37:41much of it's making it through? Notice
37:44in July, since July, nothing. zero. So
37:48there's uh the memorandum of
37:50understanding somewhere in here, but a
37:52few ships used to be making it through
37:55there, but for the last month and a
37:56half, nothing. This is onethird of the
38:01world's urabased fertilizers. Now I
38:05don't didn't have uh sulfur in this
38:08presentation, but sulfur is a byproduct
38:10of oil. Uh when you refine it, you end
38:13up with sulfur. And this information
38:16Chris Martinson had in his presentation.
38:19And uh you need sulfur to make sulfuric
38:22acid which you need to be able to make
38:25uh fertilizers that are phosphorbased
38:28fertilizers. So this is a third of the
38:30world's ura the fertilizers
38:33and nitrogen fertilizers. The phosphor
38:36fertilizers have also uh I think it's
38:39greater than 30%. uh but uh those are
38:44gone as well because of the lack of uh
38:48this byproduct of refining oil, this
38:50lack of sulfur and sulfur goes into
38:53everything. Uh you can't heat leach all
38:56of the uh metals, the ore that you dig
38:59up for copper and things like that if
39:02you don't have sulfuric acid. So this is
39:04what happened to ura uh based
39:07fertilizers, but this data ends in June.
39:10Uh it's going back up and it's going to
39:12get worse. Uh this is uh the US is to
39:17harvest the fewest acres of wheat in 149
39:21years. So not [clears throat] only um do
39:25we have a lack of fertilizer in the
39:27world, giving you a lower crop yield per
39:29acre, but we're also harvesting the
39:32least amount of acres in the United
39:33States. Ukraine farmers despair as
39:36Russian Black Sea blockade traps their
39:39harvest. Uh food threat. Russian attacks
39:43on grain ships raise fears of global
39:46supply crisis. Ukrainian attacks damage
39:50Russian grain ports. Russia Ukraine
39:53strikes threaten global food supply. So
39:57there's less food coming from the United
39:59States. There's less fertilizer for the
40:01entire world. And then uh they're trying
40:03to damage each other's economies right
40:05now by stopping uh grain exports and
40:08grain production. Now, um what is going
40:12to happen here most likely uh is first
40:16of all, food prices are going to go way
40:18up in the advanced countries as we pay
40:20more for fertilizers, but we're going to
40:22be bidding them away from the poorer
40:24countries. And so there's going to be a
40:26fertilizer shortage or even, you know,
40:29uh no fertilizer available. And I I
40:33actually believe this is a third of the
40:36world's fertilizer. I think you're going
40:38to see famine return to Africa,
40:41Southeast Asia, uh, and other places as
40:45uh, crops fail in those places where the
40:48rich countries have bought all of the
40:50fertilizer that the world produces and
40:52they're they've got to go without
40:54fertilizer. And so, uh, that's coming
40:56back. Now this is an old chart from Tavi
40:59Costa uh and he basically shows the
41:03correlation between gasoline prices and
41:05food prices and he says energy leads and
41:08food follows but this time it isn't just
41:11the cost of the input of the energy it's
41:14the fertilizer it's the lack of acreage
41:16that we're harvesting and it's the lack
41:18of crops being able to be exported from
41:21Ukraine is one of the largest grain
41:23exporters on the planet that's gone.
41:27Uh then we've got inflation then versus
41:30now. And we had three waves of inflation
41:32back in the 70s. Well, this one is we're
41:36we're going to have a wave of inflation,
41:39but it's going to be really weird. Asset
41:41prices are going to fall. They're going
41:42to deflate. But all the things that you
41:45need, all the things that you eat, the
41:47stuff that you drive, that's all going
41:49up. And it's going up big time. This is
41:52the number of people doing a search for
41:54sell my house. So that's going up. This
41:57is the number of people searching for
41:59the term can't sell my house. Uh this is
42:04office commercial mortgage back security
42:06delinquency rate. So it's office
42:08buildings that have been vacant since co
42:11and they're not able to make their
42:13payments on their uh their bank loans.
42:16Uh which reflects on the mortgage back
42:18securities. And this is the peak of the
42:22real estate bubble. Oh, now this is the
42:24the onset of the global the peak of the
42:26real estate bubble would be right about
42:28here. That's the onset of the global
42:30financial crisis. And it took until 2011
42:332012 for the delinquency rate to peak.
42:37Look at where we are today already. And
42:39the crisis hasn't even started. We are
42:41really in for something big here folks.
42:44Uh this is private credit defaults. And
42:47so you can see 2008 uh the bank loans.
42:51This is COVID uh this is private a
42:54private credit 2024 crisis and here we
42:58are today uh at 9.2% and the crisis has
43:02not yet started. Uh so you can see how
43:06much bigger it is right now precrisis
43:10uh uh than it has been ever in the past.
43:13uh this is the portion of loan re loan
43:16receivables that are 60 days or more uh
43:19past due by uh credit type. So you've
43:23got prime down here, this peach line.
43:26You've got subprime and hopefully the
43:28banks learned their lesson from the
43:30global financial crisis of 2008.
43:33Subprime is already up here. Ignore that
43:35little box. The [music] thing to pay
43:37attention to is this peach line down
43:40here. That is what banks are counting
43:42on. That's what makes up a large portion
43:44of their balance sheet. That's what they
43:47trust in. This this gives them safety.
43:50All these prime loans to all of these
43:53middle class and upper middle class uh
43:56white collar workers and so on. One out
43:59of four of which will be replaced by AI
44:02very shortly. This thing is going to be
44:04doing a hockey stick. And that is the
44:06only thing the banks have that they feel
44:09is safe. and they're not looking into
44:11the future and seeing that in a couple
44:13of years uh this peach line is going to
44:16be go going up to where that uh red line
44:19is. Now this is the condition of the
44:21banks. Uh this is their balance sheet as
44:24far as the bonds. They all have to carry
44:26treasuries on their balance sheet and
44:28other bonds and whether they're upside
44:31down or not. uh if interest rates were
44:34zero and they've got a bunch of those
44:36bonds that are paying uh 1%. And then we
44:40raise rates, those old bonds are worth
44:42less. You can't they're not worth
44:45worthless. They are worth less, a lot
44:47less. you can't sell them in the
44:50aftermarket as easily because nobody
44:52wants, you know, when you're in an
44:54inflationary environment and you've got
44:57a bond that's only paying 1% and
44:59inflation is 3% or 4%. Uh that means,
45:03you know, back in the uh 70s and 80s,
45:06they called US treasuries certificates
45:08of confiscation because they confiscated
45:10your wealth. This is how upside down the
45:14banks are right now. This is the global
45:17fi financial crisis of 2008. They were
45:20barely uh upside down. Uh this time it
45:23is global. This is residential real
45:26estate in China. And over the past two
45:29years it's already fallen 25%. And this
45:32crisis is going to affect the entire
45:35world. This is going to get a lot worse.
45:39This is the probability of one
45:41measurement that predicts recessions.
45:44and it's done a marvelous job. Uh 1 2 3
45:484 five six uh it's it's done six out of
45:52eight of the past recessions. It's
45:55accurately predicted. And what it is is
45:58the rate of change when you have a
46:00sudden deviation in energy prices from
46:03the trend. trend is going like this and
46:06then suddenly there's like a 50%
46:08increase and when it gets over that 50%
46:11we almost always have a recession and
46:13there's there's where we are. Now
46:15remember a recession is a trailing
46:18indicator. Uh you have to have a couple
46:21of quarters in a row of GDP contraction.
46:25Uh and so they can't tell you that uh
46:28we're in a recession until we've already
46:30been in it for at least six months. But
46:33sometimes it takes a year for them to
46:35say, "Oh, there's a recession." Uh, and
46:38I want to just remind everybody that
46:40we're starting this off, this crisis,
46:43with the highest levels of debt to GDP
46:47since World War II and the highest
46:49interest payments ever. Uh, so we're
46:53we're starting off from this is just
46:55reckless spending by all of the
46:57politicians getting us in a suicidal
47:00debt. And this is it. We are here uh
47:03where all of this blows up. Again, go to
47:06summit onsand.com,
47:08sign up for this uh conference and it's
47:11going to be at the Kandado Vanderbilt.
47:14Very nice hotel and then there's that
47:16add-on day on the 19th of September
47:19where we're having a farm tour of my
47:21farm. Uh, also go to mmaloney.com
47:27and put in your email address and uh I
47:30will keep you updated on what I'm doing
47:32with my own finances and uh what I'm
47:36investing in and I just made some
47:39changes. So, if you were an insider, you
47:42know, I'm under a non-compete right now
47:44with my former company. Uh, January 1st,
47:48uh, I'm that will be over with and I'll
47:50be able to do whatever I want. But for
47:52now, I made a promise to people. And my
47:54promise was that uh you know, for people
47:57that qualified as an insider by making a
48:00certain size purchase over at golds.com,
48:03which by the way is still a great place
48:05to buy precious metals. So, I'm not
48:07saying anything against them. Great
48:08place to buy. Uh I I do believe that
48:11this is a time that you want to hold
48:14precious metals. I also believe that
48:16they are bottoming right now and that by
48:19the end of the year you'll be in you'll
48:21probably be in some serious profit if
48:24you buy precious metals. But go to
48:26mmaloney.com
48:29and put in your email address. I'm
48:32there's no charge for anything. We have
48:34no profit motive here. I won't bother
48:37you except to tell you when I've got
48:39something new, a new video or new
48:42information. Uh so
48:45breaking Kuwait says power and water
48:48desalinization plant attacked for a
48:50second time in two days. So this is Iran
48:54attacking its neighbors Oman uh uh
48:57Kuwait uh UAE uh and uh it's
49:01infrastructure that is being destroyed
49:04and now it's getting personal. They're
49:06trying to hurt the populations not the
49:09export of oil necessarily. This is the
49:12water. I mean, without water in these
49:14areas, they die. Uh, this is really
49:17important. Now, one of the things that
49:19we haven't talked about that people
49:21don't even know about usually is helium.
49:25And [clears throat] a third of the
49:26world's helium comes from Oman. Iran
49:29attacked Oman, destroying their
49:31infrastructure and taking that helium
49:35[clears throat] offline
49:36for at least uh 3 to 5 years is the
49:40estimate. uh straight hormone disruption
49:44threatens helium supply and
49:46semiconductor
49:48production.
49:50What most people don't know and I didn't
49:52know until I started investing
49:54investigating all of this, you cannot
49:57make a microchip uh that especially the
50:00advanced chips that are required for AI
50:03without helium. It is absolutely
50:05necessary. If a if a third of the
50:08world's helium goes away, a third of the
50:11world's microchips go away. Um, [snorts]
50:15so this is what it looks like in Oman.
50:17And uh the US uh Iran war has cut into
50:21world helium production by roughly 33%.
50:25Iran drone missile strikes on Qatar
50:28facilities have caused extensive damage
50:31uh a halt to production and a
50:34declaration of force majour meaning all
50:36the contracts that they that Oman had to
50:39deliver onethird of the world's helium
50:42they just said sorry we can't there
50:45isn't anymore um and then
50:49uh repair of production facilities and
50:53recovery of the lost Qatari share is
50:56estimated to take 3 to 5 years. So,
50:59we're talking uh 2029 to 2031 before we
51:04get back to the levels that we were at
51:07in January of this year. uh Chris
51:10Martinson talks about when it comes to
51:12the en if the economy is energy which it
51:15is and energy is the economy which it is
51:19that this uh 20% reduction of the
51:21closure of the straight of hormuz for
51:25oil uh will take us back to GDP levels
51:28of 2011. Uh one of the things that he
51:31didn't say is the world population has
51:34grown since then. So per share of world
51:37GDP per person is actually going to be
51:40smaller. Probably takes us back to 2006
51:44or or even before. I don't know. I I'll
51:47have to calculate that in the future.
51:50There are no practical substitutes for
51:52helium's cryogenic uses in and then the
51:55main one is semiconductor manufacturing
51:58especially AI and logic chips. Now,
52:02this is the top 10 stocks in the stock
52:06market in the United States. And you'll
52:09notice down here at the bottom is Eli
52:11Lillian Company. So, that is the only
52:14one that is not a tech stock. Now,
52:16people will go, "Ah, but Amazon is
52:19retail. That's not tech." No. 60% of
52:22their profits come from cloud computing
52:25services. They are a tech company. These
52:28are all the companies that the entire
52:30United States of America is betting on
52:33for the future. The stock market is
52:35propped up. This is more than a third of
52:38the stock market's entire value is
52:40wrapped up in these nine companies. And
52:44u what do they need to do all of these
52:48big data centers and the cloud
52:50computing? They need massive amounts of
52:52energy, which we no longer have. And
52:54they need massive amounts of computer
52:56chips, which we no longer have. They
52:59also need massive amounts of copper,
53:01which the world is not going to have
53:02anymore because of the lack of uh of
53:05sulfuric acid because of the lack of
53:07sulfur. And they need massive amounts of
53:10silver. And silver has been
53:11underinvested uh in in for decades.
53:15There's been a structural deficit for
53:16the last seven years. you may want to
53:19consider looking at silver. Uh so alert,
53:24uh the US State Department has issued a
53:26worldwide caution over heightened Middle
53:29East tensions, warning Americans
53:31everywhere to exercise increased
53:34caution. It cites potential for
53:37escalation, flight cancellations,
53:39airspace closures, and threats to US
53:42facilities and interests worldwide. And
53:46so, uh, just like that, uh, video that I
53:49referred you to earlier, they are
53:51worried about attacks on our home soil,
53:54we have now groomed an entire generation
53:57of terrorists by killing off their
54:00family members and and uh, hurting their
54:03country and stuff. And so, we are going
54:05to see something in the future uh, like
54:08we saw at 9/11, there will be terrorism
54:10again in the United States. That's my
54:13prediction. Go to mikemmealoney.com,
54:16put in your email address. I will keep
54:19you informed. Now, there's going to be a
54:21very important video coming of what I've
54:25invested in. And the moves that I am
54:27making right now to get prepared for
54:30this. Uh right now, they're still
54:32papering things over, so you probably
54:35have a few months to get ready. But
54:38personally, uh I ran from the stock
54:41market. I'll tell you about it in the
54:43next video. I want to thank you for
54:45watching. Please, please, please forward
54:48this to anybody that you care about. Uh
54:51just copy the email address or I mean
54:53the URL and uh email it to them. Uh uh
54:57it isn't we can't rely on YouTube's
54:59algorithms to spread this word. I want
55:02to thank you for watching. We'll see you
55:04next time.

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