This Has Never Happened Before... And the Window May Be Closing — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00What is going on all you Pokémon
- 0:02collecting maniacs out there? This is
- 0:04Ryan, the Pika Pika Papa, and today
- 0:07we're going to be doing what we have
- 0:09been doing every single month since
- 0:11September of 2023, and we're going to be
- 0:13doing a deep dive into the Sword and
- 0:16Shield era and how the amazing cards and
- 0:19products from that generation have been
- 0:21moving month over month. Now, if you are
- 0:23like me and you like buying fantastic
- 0:25Pokémon cards and products at an
- 0:27absolute amazing deal, then this video
- 0:30is going to be for you because we're
- 0:31going to be talking about what's been
- 0:32happening in this space really over the
- 0:34last couple months. And again, this
- 0:36feels like I've said this a couple times
- 0:38recently, but what we are seeing today,
- 0:40what we're going to talk about today,
- 0:41has never happened in the entire history
- 0:44of us monitoring Sword and Shield
- 0:45products month over month from September
- 0:472023 till now, we have never seen this
- 0:50happen before. So,
- 0:51we're going to be talking about some big
- 0:52opportunities. We're going to be talking
- 0:54about what's happening in this space and
- 0:56maybe just shining up that crystal ball
- 0:58just a tiny bit. You know me, I don't
- 0:59predict the future, but we can follow
- 1:01patterns and trends to give us some
- 1:03small idea of if things repeat the way
- 1:06that they have in the past, what might
- 1:07happen in the future. So, if you take a
- 1:09look at this first slide right here.
- 1:11Now, this is me trying to make things
- 1:12more engaging for you guys cuz we're
- 1:13super super data heavy. But, what you
- 1:16can see here is a blue graph and a
- 1:18orange graph there in the very middle,
- 1:20right? The blue line represents how the
- 1:22top 20 single cards from every single
- 1:24set in the Sword and Shield era that has
- 1:27a booster box and how it has performed
- 1:29from September 2023 till now. And as you
- 1:31can see, as a whole, those what? 12
- 1:34times 20 cards each, those 240 cards
- 1:36have given a 153 or 158.3% gain from
- 1:41September 2023 till now. Now, take a
- 1:43look at what the booster boxes have
- 1:45done. The booster boxes have in from
- 1:47terms of rate of return, absolutely
- 1:49crushed it, right? It is up 288
- 1:52.6% over the exact same timeframe. And
- 1:54so, what what do for booster boxes we
- 1:56said, "Hey, listen, if you were to buy
- 1:57one of all 12 booster boxes, how much
- 2:00would that cost?" And you can see how
- 2:01both of these have moved over time. But,
- 2:03what's been really exciting is if you
- 2:05look over on the far right-hand side,
- 2:07look at how both booster boxes and top
- 2:0920 single cards have been working their
- 2:11way down over the last several months.
- 2:13That is what I get excited about. Now,
- 2:15what's even more exciting to me is
- 2:18month-over-month. Now, again, I'm going
- 2:19to show you this in detail here in just
- 2:21a second, and I do two videos. Today,
- 2:22we're going to talk a lot about sealed
- 2:24in the market as a whole, but I've got a
- 2:25follow-up video where we talk about
- 2:27single cards. But, for me, from last
- 2:29month to this month, zero. Now,
- 2:31remember, we're going to talk about
- 2:32specialty sets, too. But, zero of these
- 2:3417 sets from the Sword & Shield era were
- 2:37positive month-over-month in terms of
- 2:39top 20 single cards growth.
- 2:41That we've seen before, but almost
- 2:43never. And when you think about that,
- 2:45what happens traditionally the month
- 2:46after that is you might get one, two,
- 2:48maybe even three or four sets that turn
- 2:50positive, but traditionally, in the
- 2:52past, when we've seen every single set
- 2:54red month-over-month, the month after
- 2:56that, we don't see the overall market
- 2:58turn green. So, I've got that in the
- 3:00back of my mind. And then, in terms of
- 3:02booster boxes, four of the eight turned
- 3:04positive, but guess what? The overall
- 3:06booster box market was still down in the
- 3:08Sword & Shield era month-over-month. As
- 3:10you can see, booster boxes were down
- 3:113.62%
- 3:13from last month to this month, and those
- 3:15top 20 singles aggregate is down 2.92%.
- 3:18Now, the biggest thing, this is the
- 3:19thing that I'm going to dig into is we
- 3:21have never seen booster boxes be
- 3:22negative 4 months in a row in the Sword
- 3:24& Shield space. When you think about
- 3:26buying high-quality Pokémon cards and
- 3:28products that are going to be durable
- 3:30over the course of time, you and I and
- 3:32everybody else out there knows
- 3:34sealed is as safe a product as you can
- 3:36buy. Nothing is safe, nothing is
- 3:37guaranteed a guarantee, right, in the
- 3:39Pokémon world. But, if you want downside
- 3:42protection and upside opportunity, we
- 3:44all know that sealed products in the
- 3:45Pokémon world are one of the best bets.
- 3:47And so, when you see four consecutive
- 3:50months of these 12 booster boxes being
- 3:52down month over month in a set that's as
- 3:55amazing as the sword and shield era is,
- 3:56like it just has you scratching your
- 3:58head a little bit because we all know
- 4:00the best time to get in on products is
- 4:02not when they're sky high, it's when
- 4:04they start to pull back a little bit.
- 4:05So, we're going to have a ton of fun
- 4:07talking about all of those booster
- 4:08boxes. I'm going to give you my personal
- 4:10favorites here at the very end. And
- 4:11before I get into the rest of the video,
- 4:13I got to give my selfish little plug
- 4:15because as you can see we've been doing
- 4:16this for a long time. We put a ton of
- 4:18work into bringing you the very best
- 4:19data that we can. So, if you get into
- 4:21this video, if you're having fun, if you
- 4:22take something away from it, hit that
- 4:24subscribe button or give us a thumbs up.
- 4:25Those two small things go a long way in
- 4:27helping my channel out and it's the best
- 4:29way to say thank you for everything that
- 4:30we do. Now, I don't just have these
- 4:32colorful graphs as most of you are well
- 4:34aware.
- 4:35I have a website that I built and on
- 4:36that website we have every single era
- 4:38where you can track every single set and
- 4:40how it's moved month over month. In
- 4:42terms of sword and shield, you can go
- 4:43all the way back to September of 2023.
- 4:46So, this is what that looks like in
- 4:48terms of the top 20 single cards and
- 4:50this is where I really want to call out
- 4:52what's been happening here in the
- 4:53market. And when I talk about using this
- 4:55information to help you be able to make
- 4:57plays and help you decide, "Listen, I'm
- 4:59never going to tell you when to buy or
- 5:00sell." But, the data can certainly point
- 5:02you in a direction and I have this
- 5:04yellow box right there in the very
- 5:05middle, right? Obviously, that is when
- 5:08the sword and shield single card space
- 5:10started to really heat up. But, then if
- 5:11you look on the left-hand side and if
- 5:13you look on the right-hand side, we have
- 5:14these periods of markets cooling down
- 5:16and that is the opportunity here. If you
- 5:18can identify when markets are starting
- 5:20to cool down, but most importantly when
- 5:22they start to turn a little bit
- 5:23positive. Take a look at January of
- 5:252026. That was the final month before
- 5:28the sword and shield market started to
- 5:29get hot again. In February, March,
- 5:31April, May, June, all the way through
- 5:34till July of 2026. What do you see in
- 5:36January of 2026? You see 1 2 3 4 5 sets
- 5:40that had started to turn green, right?
- 5:41In December you saw five sets that were
- 5:43starting to turn green. But, then in
- 5:45November you only saw two sets. So, when
- 5:47I talk about where we're at today, what
- 5:49it's going to take for the market to
- 5:50start turning positive, I don't think
- 5:52next month we're going to have four,
- 5:53five, or six sets just magically turn
- 5:55green in the Sword and Shield space.
- 5:57Maybe we will, who knows, but all I can
- 5:59say is in the past, there's going to be
- 6:00a little bit of a build-up to it. And
- 6:02when you look to the right of that
- 6:04yellow box, look at how red everything
- 6:06was. August, we only had two sets that
- 6:08were positive. September, we only had
- 6:11one. And then here we are in October,
- 6:13all of them are red top to bottom. It's
- 6:15hard for me to imagine everything just
- 6:16fundamentally shifting month-over-month.
- 6:18Now, we will hit a period where things
- 6:20start to slow down. Like I said, we'll
- 6:21have a couple that will turn green. But
- 6:23for me, we'll probably have another
- 6:25month. So, I'm not necessarily jumping
- 6:26in quite yet, but I'm going to wait and
- 6:28see when we start to see a couple of
- 6:29these sets turning positive, then that
- 6:31will tell me, "Hey, listen, this might
- 6:32be a great time to jump in on some of
- 6:33these really cool cards."
- 6:35Now, from the booster box perspective, I
- 6:37have a lot of colors on this page, but
- 6:39this is the same thing. Now, I have the
- 6:41singles and I have this booster box
- 6:43filtered uh just to a 12-month view, but
- 6:45obviously on the website, you can go
- 6:46back all the way to January of 20 or
- 6:48excuse me, September 2023. It's really
- 6:50cool. You can just look at the colors
- 6:52and you can see these cyclical patterns,
- 6:53and that's what I love about this
- 6:55Pokémon space so much is we can use
- 6:57these patterns to our advantage. Now,
- 7:00the reason I have all of these beautiful
- 7:01colors on here is because there are some
- 7:04booster boxes which are starting to turn
- 7:06positive. And for me, that's a good
- 7:08thing. Usually, the booster boxes, when
- 7:09we're going through a period of
- 7:10regression, the booster boxes will kind
- 7:12of be the very first ones to make the
- 7:14turn, right? The sealed product. Again,
- 7:16less volatile than single cards. And so,
- 7:18when I look at the ones that are
- 7:19starting to turn positive, I see three
- 7:21big names, right? You see Fusion Strike,
- 7:23you see Lost Origin, you see Silver
- 7:25Tempest. And I'll give you a better
- 7:26visual representation that of here in
- 7:28just a second. But also, when you look
- 7:29at the sets that are negative, you see
- 7:31three big names that are negative as
- 7:33well. You got Brilliant Stars, you got
- 7:34Chilling Reign, you got Evolving Skies.
- 7:36Evolving Skies booster boxes have been
- 7:38negative three of the last four months.
- 7:40And if you look at Chilling Reign,
- 7:42Chilling Reign has been negative four
- 7:43consecutive months. And if you look at
- 7:45Brilliant Stars, those booster boxes
- 7:46have been down three consecutive months.
- 7:48So,
- 7:49when I talked earlier in this video
- 7:50about identifying value, identifying
- 7:52opportunities, like even if you just
- 7:54look at these color patterns here, you
- 7:56notice that you don't have those real
- 7:58defined green and red blocks like we did
- 8:00on the single cards. Sealed product just
- 8:02has a tendency to be much more durable
- 8:04in the long run. And so, when I see
- 8:05these things start to pull back,
- 8:07especially these big names, man, that's
- 8:09a great time to take advantage of it.
- 8:10So,
- 8:11here's what I wanted to highlight, too.
- 8:12When I talk about kind of the
- 8:14unprecedentedness
- 8:15of what we're going through, we have
- 8:17never, again, since we started
- 8:19monitoring this month-over-month
- 8:20information, we have never seen four
- 8:23consecutive months of booster box
- 8:25pullbacks. But, what we have seen in the
- 8:27past is we have seen at least three
- 8:29months. So, prior to this, we had three
- 8:31different downturn cycles in the Sword &
- 8:33Shield booster box era. If you look,
- 8:35October to December of 2023, three
- 8:38consecutive months were booster boxes
- 8:39pulled back. They were down 5.1%. Then
- 8:42you look July to September 2024, again,
- 8:44three months of red, and it was only
- 8:46down 3%. November to December of 2025,
- 8:50we had a big pullback, just two months,
- 8:52but man, those were two brutal months,
- 8:53and it was down 10.5%. And then if you
- 8:56look at what we're going through right
- 8:57now, from June to October of 2026, our
- 9:00first time ever with four consecutive
- 9:02months, and it is down almost a full
- 9:0410%. Remember, once you're down 10%, you
- 9:07are in full-on correction territory. So,
- 9:09we are almost there. And again, this is
- 9:11the second biggest pullback that we have
- 9:13seen in the Sword & Shield era from a
- 9:15booster box perspective since we've ever
- 9:17started monitoring that. That is a big
- 9:19deal. That is not something to ignore.
- 9:21And as I said earlier, we're seeing some
- 9:23of the bleeding come from the biggest
- 9:24sets out there. So, I wanted to give
- 9:26this individual subset of information
- 9:28its own slide because this is really,
- 9:30really important to grab a hold of. Now,
- 9:32the next thing that I want to talk
- 9:33about, too, is listen, it's not all bad.
- 9:35We talked about this a minute ago. There
- 9:37are some sets and some very big sets
- 9:40which are just starting to turn
- 9:41positive. But man, I mean, we are
- 9:42talking about slivers here. We aren't
- 9:45seeing 3, 4, 5% jumps in these booster
- 9:47boxes. We are talking about ones that
- 9:49are just barely starting to make the
- 9:50turn. However, the number of green
- 9:53booster boxes increased
- 9:55month-over-month. Remember what I talked
- 9:56about in the single card space? I said,
- 9:58"Hey, listen, like I don't normally see
- 10:00things go from all red one month to a
- 10:02majority green the next month. Normally,
- 10:04it's more of a slower rotation.
- 10:06Same thing happens in the booster box
- 10:08space and I feel like we're deeper into
- 10:10that rotation than we are in the single
- 10:11card space. Remember what I said
- 10:13earlier, normally booster boxes are the
- 10:14first ones to make the move. So, if you
- 10:16look in September, we had two of the 12
- 10:19booster boxes that were positive
- 10:21month-over-month. Now, look at October.
- 10:23We have four of the 12 booster boxes
- 10:25that are positive month-over-month. So,
- 10:26we're starting to see, you know, the
- 10:28breath is starting to improve a little
- 10:29bit. More than that, we're moving in the
- 10:31right direction, but the drawdown was
- 10:33actually bigger. Now, a big part of that
- 10:35is Evolving Skies. Evolving Skies
- 10:37booster boxes got absolutely waylaid. So
- 10:39much so that I have a slide dedicated to
- 10:41that here in just a couple, but what I
- 10:43want to talk about here is the four that
- 10:45are turning green are just barely making
- 10:47that turn. So, this isn't a huge turn. I
- 10:49mean, look at Vivid Voltage, obviously
- 10:51not the most popular set out there, but
- 10:52Vivid Voltage
- 10:54up 1.5% month-over-month. Silver Tempest
- 10:57up 0.8% month-over-month. Fusion Strike
- 10:59only up half a percent month-over-month.
- 11:01And Lost Origin, yes, it's green, but as
- 11:03far as I'm concerned, that's
- 11:04directionally flat, only up 0.1%
- 11:06month-over-month. And when you look to
- 11:08the right, look at the biggest losers. I
- 11:09mean, we had huge drops in some of the
- 11:11biggest names from the Sword & Shield
- 11:13era. Evolving Skies was down 9%,
- 11:15Chilling Reign down almost 7%, Brilliant
- 11:18Stars down 4.3, Darkness Ablaze, again,
- 11:21not an all-time set for any stretch of
- 11:23the imagination, right? But it's still
- 11:24down 4.1%. So, again, more are turning
- 11:27green, but I do think this is just the
- 11:29beginning. I think this This just the
- 11:30beginning of people starting to realize
- 11:32my goodness these booster boxes are
- 11:33super undervalued and if that mentality
- 11:36is going to start hitting it, I'm going
- 11:37to be looking really hard at evolving
- 11:39skies chilling rain and brilliant stars
- 11:40cuz I don't know how much further
- 11:41they're going to drop. Now the other
- 11:43thing that I want to talk about here is
- 11:44listen, we talked about the movers and
- 11:45shakers. Let's look at all of them,
- 11:47right? I showed you eight. I wanted to
- 11:48show you all 12 of them. A little bit of
- 11:50a redundant slide, but as you can see
- 11:52the breakdown here evolving skies at the
- 11:53very bottom. In the middle some of the
- 11:55ones that didn't get talked about. Sword
- 11:57and Shield again pretty much
- 11:58directionally flat. Rebel Clash was down
- 12:00.6% Astral Radiance down .8% Battle
- 12:04Styles is not that terrible of a set.
- 12:05You got Alt Arts in there. You got the
- 12:07sleepy T Tar.
- 12:09That box is down 3.7% but still the
- 12:12majority of these are red month over
- 12:14month. We saw a big overall loss and
- 12:16again just starting to see those things
- 12:18start to make the turn as far as I'm
- 12:19concerned. Now this is a really cool
- 12:21graphical representation. So this is
- 12:24Evolving Skies and this is how the
- 12:26Evolving Skies single cards and booster
- 12:28boxes moved from October 2025 to October
- 12:322026. Now I'm not telling you anything
- 12:34you don't know but Evolving Skies is the
- 12:35biggest and baddest set in the Sword and
- 12:37Shield era, right? The Moon Brionne is
- 12:39absolutely lights out. The Rayquaza that
- 12:41you have coming in there. The Alt Art on
- 12:43there. Like the trainer gallery that
- 12:44whole set is just absolutely insane top
- 12:48to bottom. Absolutely love it. You got
- 12:49the VMAXs. You got the V Alt Arts. You
- 12:51got the Evolutions, right? Just an
- 12:53incredible set in and of itself. But
- 12:55take a look at what the booster box has
- 12:56done over the last year. The booster box
- 12:58is actually down 14% while the single
- 13:01cards are up 12.7%. Look at how the
- 13:04orange line and the blue line cross. You
- 13:06we don't see that happen that often. And
- 13:08we specifically don't see it in some of
- 13:10these biggest sets. So for me this is a
- 13:12big call out. Like this is a big deal.
- 13:14You look at the singles over the last 3
- 13:16months. Yeah, they're down a little bit
- 13:18but the booster boxes are down almost
- 13:2018% from that June high. Now don't get
- 13:22me wrong. Evolving Skies booster boxes
- 13:25are still big and expensive but when you
- 13:27think about the opportunity to jump in
- 13:29on these during the middle of a market
- 13:31downturn, if you don't have any Evolving
- 13:33Skies or if it's something you just
- 13:34wanted to add more of, if you think, and
- 13:35I'm not saying it will be, but if you're
- 13:37one of those people who think that
- 13:38that's going to be destined to be like a
- 13:39$5,000 booster box far into the future,
- 13:42these are some of those opportunities
- 13:44that you would want to be looking at.
- 13:45Matter of fact, if you look at the way
- 13:47those chase card, the Moonbreon has
- 13:49performed versus the booster box, you
- 13:51see the exact same crossing pattern
- 13:53here. Now, the graph that you see right
- 13:55here, this goes all the way back to
- 13:57January of 2025, so we're plotting the
- 13:59booster box, we're plotting the
- 14:01uh the the excuse me, the chase card,
- 14:03the Moonbreon here as well. And as you
- 14:05can see, overall, both of them have
- 14:07delivered huge returns, right? From
- 14:09January 2025 all the way till now, uh
- 14:11the booster box is up 65% uh and the
- 14:14chase card is up 84%, so that's nothing
- 14:16to shake a fist at, but you can see that
- 14:18the sealed product for most of the time,
- 14:20the orange line on there, was actually
- 14:22beating the rate of return versus the
- 14:24chase card. Now, we've seen the
- 14:26opposite, the rate of return has
- 14:27actually gotten better for the Moonbreon
- 14:29versus the booster box itself. And as
- 14:31you can see on our support line
- 14:32dashboard, the booster box is actually
- 14:34being called out because it's 17.3%
- 14:37below its all-time high, which we talked
- 14:38about there just a minute ago. So, this
- 14:40is a product which is actually on my
- 14:42personal watch list. I don't know what
- 14:44I'm waiting for. I can't I Again, who
- 14:46knows? I don't have a crystal ball, but
- 14:47man, can you imagine if Evolving Skies
- 14:49booster boxes actually got to $2,000
- 14:51again or maybe even dropped just a
- 14:53little bit below? Look at where that
- 14:55orange line is. I mean, we're actually
- 14:56the buying it below significantly higher
- 14:59all-time prices. So, Evolving Skies is
- 15:01an I don't know, it's a very interesting
- 15:03thing. It's hard for me to talk about a
- 15:04$2,000 booster box, but still, if it
- 15:06drops down to that $2,000 threshold,
- 15:08man, it would be worth a very, very hard
- 15:10look.
- 15:11Next product, you know how much I love
- 15:13Brilliant Stars. And when you take a
- 15:15look, this is very different, right? You
- 15:17take a look at what the orange line has
- 15:18done versus what the purple line has
- 15:20done. Uh the obviously the Charizard V
- 15:22Alt Art hasn't quite performed as well
- 15:24as the booster box, but this is a
- 15:26catch-up. You so if you watch this
- 15:27channel over the last several years, you
- 15:29know, I've been a huge fan of Brilliant
- 15:31Stars booster boxes. The lineup for the
- 15:32set is incredible. The Charizard, even
- 15:34though it doesn't have a crazy price
- 15:36point to it, it is still anchored by an
- 15:38Alt Art Charizard card. And we've
- 15:39watched the booster box gain a lot of
- 15:41ground. Matter of fact, I included that
- 15:43snippet up there so you can see where
- 15:44these booster boxes and the chase cards
- 15:46have performed over the last three, six,
- 15:48and nine months. But this booster box
- 15:49right now, it's down 11 and 1/2% versus
- 15:52where it was before. You know, this is a
- 15:54set that I think is going to age
- 15:56phenomenally well. Now, 560 bucks,
- 15:58again, this is a ton of money for a
- 16:00booster box. But again, you just don't
- 16:02see these pullbacks very often. Over the
- 16:04last six months, this thing is down 10%.
- 16:07It's down 11 and 1/2% versus its
- 16:09all-time high. Like this is a booster
- 16:11box, which I think does have a lot of
- 16:13room to grow in the future. Sun and Moon
- 16:15was a very different era, very different
- 16:17print quality, quantities, and very few
- 16:19people were sealed collecting back then
- 16:21like they are today. So you have to take
- 16:23it with a grain of salt, but I continue
- 16:24to look at the Sun and Moon era
- 16:27and figure out how many booster boxes in
- 16:29that era are over the $1,000 threshold
- 16:31at this point. There's a ton of them,
- 16:32right? And I don't think Sword and
- 16:33Shield is going to do a one-for-one, but
- 16:35I certainly think this, one of the top
- 16:37cards in the sword or sets in the Sword
- 16:38and Shield era, certainly has that type
- 16:40of upside to it. So as I watch it pull
- 16:42down, again, you see the nine-month
- 16:44trend on the booster box is negative.
- 16:45You can see that the chase card has been
- 16:47doing relatively well over the last nine
- 16:48months. So this is a set that I truly
- 16:50have my eye on. And as you can see that
- 16:51green little watch list thing is
- 16:53clicked. This is another one which is on
- 16:54my personal watch list.
- 16:56Finally, Chilling Reign. You know,
- 16:58Chilling Reign was the number three set
- 17:00in the entire Sword and Shield era for a
- 17:02very, very long time if you just went by
- 17:04booster box pricing. Brilliant Stars was
- 17:07number four. We always knew that, you
- 17:09know, listen, Evolving Skies was going
- 17:10to be number one, Fusion Strike was
- 17:11going to be number two, Lost Origin was
- 17:13going to be number three. As I said,
- 17:14Chilling Reign was number four for a
- 17:16long time. Brilliant Stars was number
- 17:17five. You know, we really felt that
- 17:19Brilliant Stars was eventually going to
- 17:21overtake Chilling Reign, which it ended
- 17:23up doing. That's a great lesson for
- 17:24today's market as well. Listen, even
- 17:26though a current set might be
- 17:28undervalued, aka Surging Sparks, you
- 17:31have to look at the card lineup. Like
- 17:32the card lineup in the long run is going
- 17:35to matter the most, right? It just is
- 17:37very, very important to keep your eyes
- 17:39on that. Warren Buffett has this awesome
- 17:41saying about investing. He said the
- 17:43stock market in the short world in the
- 17:45short run is a voting machine. People
- 17:47are voting up and people are voting
- 17:48down. In the long run, it's a weighing
- 17:50machine. Like the weight and the value
- 17:51of something is what's going to matter
- 17:53over the long run. Same thing for the
- 17:54Pokémon market. We see it happen time
- 17:56and time again. In the short run, it's a
- 17:58voting machine. People FOMO in, they
- 18:00panic out, prices go all over the place.
- 18:03If you have a long-term time horizon,
- 18:05buy quality sets with big-name Pokémon
- 18:07that are super deep, and I promise you
- 18:09the value will unlock itself given
- 18:11enough time. The Chilling Reign and the
- 18:13Brilliant Stars flip is a great example
- 18:15of that, and I encourage you to use that
- 18:17same type of methodology when you're
- 18:19looking at Scarlet and Violet and the
- 18:20mega series sets as well. So,
- 18:22when you look at Chilling Reign, it was
- 18:24pulled back a little bit, and
- 18:25unfortunately the kicking chicken, even
- 18:26though the Blaziken alt art is a really
- 18:28awesome card, you know, it just hasn't
- 18:30quite had a lot of pizzazz over the
- 18:32last, you know, from January 2025 till
- 18:34now, you'll see it's only up about 15%.
- 18:36Uh but the booster box hasn't seen the
- 18:38type of growth we've seen in some of the
- 18:39other products. So, it's only up 37.3%.
- 18:43Uh it's about 20% off of its all-time
- 18:45high, and this is another one where
- 18:47sometimes the price matters. Like this
- 18:49is silly. I never say buy something just
- 18:51because it's cheap, but again, we went
- 18:52through the lineup. This is going to be
- 18:54the number five set in the Sword and
- 18:55Shield era. We're deep enough into it.
- 18:57Like we've already seen the rotation
- 18:58between this and Brilliant Stars. I
- 19:00don't think anything's going to overtake
- 19:01Chilling Reign. It's coming in at 450
- 19:04bucks, which is still a lot of money,
- 19:05but if you have a long-term time
- 19:07horizon, I think the set is going to do
- 19:08really well. As I said, the chase card
- 19:10la- lacks that huge chase card at the
- 19:12very top. Although I'm telling you right
- 19:14now, it's still at $382, but it doesn't
- 19:17have the name brand recognition of a
- 19:18Charizard or a Pikachu or a Rayquaza or,
- 19:20you know, a Moonbreon or anything like
- 19:22that, but the set as a whole is super
- 19:24deep, lots of awesome artwork, and I
- 19:26think because it's 20% off its all-time
- 19:28high right now, it's one that we
- 19:29certainly shouldn't ignore.
- 19:31The final set I'm going to talk about is
- 19:33Lost Origin. Huge fan of Lost Origin,
- 19:35have been for a very long time as well,
- 19:37and I wanted to include this. So, when
- 19:39you look at the sealed products on the
- 19:40website, I include these little blocks,
- 19:42and you can just see at a quick view how
- 19:43things have done, 3 months, 6 months,
- 19:45and 9 months. And I was taking a look at
- 19:47how the trainer boxes have performed.
- 19:49So, you have the Pokémon Center
- 19:50exclusive ETB, and you have the regular
- 19:53ETB. And if you look, they've kind of
- 19:54moved in lockstep. Pokémon Center
- 19:56exclusive ETB has outperformed, but
- 19:58still, if you look over the last 3
- 20:00months, one is down 15%, one is down 3%.
- 20:02If you look over 6 months, one is up 5%,
- 20:05one is up 24%. Then if you look at the
- 20:069-month trend, the regular is up 31%,
- 20:09and the PC ETB is up almost 50%. But
- 20:11then if you look at the booster boxes,
- 20:13the booster box is down 2.5%. Okay, that
- 20:16kind of tracks with the other ones, but
- 20:17take a look at the long-term growth.
- 20:19Like, the booster box over 6 months is
- 20:21only up 1.7%. The booster box over 9
- 20:24months is only up 4%, and you compare
- 20:27that to where the Pokémon Center
- 20:28exclusive ETB is up 50% over 9 months,
- 20:31the regular ETB is up 32% over 9 months.
- 20:34You know, the booster box in terms of
- 20:36rate of growth over the last 9 months
- 20:38has lagged both the regular ETB and the
- 20:40Pokémon Center exclusive ETB. This is a
- 20:43set where the lineup is so great, I
- 20:45don't think you can go wrong with it.
- 20:46Now, I've been talking about it a lot,
- 20:47probably last 3 or 4 months this set has
- 20:49been featured on this video. Because it
- 20:51is still down over the last 3 months,
- 20:53because the growth has been so muted
- 20:54over the last 9, I still think booster
- 20:56boxes are a phenomenal play. So,
- 20:58I thought this was an awesome takeaway.
- 21:00I thought this was a cool way to look at
- 21:01it. I hope the graphics really helped
- 21:03everybody kind of get a better
- 21:04understanding uh what's happening.
- 21:06Obviously, I still think the streaks tab
- 21:08on the website is one of the very best
- 21:10tools out there. I use it almost daily.
- 21:12I look at it all the time whenever I'm
- 21:13trying to figure out what plays I'm
- 21:14going to make or content that I can
- 21:15bring for you. So, if you're interested
- 21:17in that, check it out. No matter what,
- 21:19listen, I can't thank you enough for
- 21:20watching. If you made it to the end and
- 21:21you got something out of this, hit the
- 21:22subscribe button, give us a thumbs up.
- 21:24But, most important to me is I hope you
- 21:26have an epic rest of your day. All
- 21:27right, everybody. I'll talk to you soon.
- 21:28See you. Bye.
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