YouTube2Text

This Has Never Happened Before... And the Window May Be Closing — Transcript

by PikaPikaPaPa · 4,966 words · 689 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Full transcript

  1. 0:00What is going on all you Pokémon
  2. 0:02collecting maniacs out there? This is
  3. 0:04Ryan, the Pika Pika Papa, and today
  4. 0:07we're going to be doing what we have
  5. 0:09been doing every single month since
  6. 0:11September of 2023, and we're going to be
  7. 0:13doing a deep dive into the Sword and
  8. 0:16Shield era and how the amazing cards and
  9. 0:19products from that generation have been
  10. 0:21moving month over month. Now, if you are
  11. 0:23like me and you like buying fantastic
  12. 0:25Pokémon cards and products at an
  13. 0:27absolute amazing deal, then this video
  14. 0:30is going to be for you because we're
  15. 0:31going to be talking about what's been
  16. 0:32happening in this space really over the
  17. 0:34last couple months. And again, this
  18. 0:36feels like I've said this a couple times
  19. 0:38recently, but what we are seeing today,
  20. 0:40what we're going to talk about today,
  21. 0:41has never happened in the entire history
  22. 0:44of us monitoring Sword and Shield
  23. 0:45products month over month from September
  24. 0:472023 till now, we have never seen this
  25. 0:50happen before. So,
  26. 0:51we're going to be talking about some big
  27. 0:52opportunities. We're going to be talking
  28. 0:54about what's happening in this space and
  29. 0:56maybe just shining up that crystal ball
  30. 0:58just a tiny bit. You know me, I don't
  31. 0:59predict the future, but we can follow
  32. 1:01patterns and trends to give us some
  33. 1:03small idea of if things repeat the way
  34. 1:06that they have in the past, what might
  35. 1:07happen in the future. So, if you take a
  36. 1:09look at this first slide right here.
  37. 1:11Now, this is me trying to make things
  38. 1:12more engaging for you guys cuz we're
  39. 1:13super super data heavy. But, what you
  40. 1:16can see here is a blue graph and a
  41. 1:18orange graph there in the very middle,
  42. 1:20right? The blue line represents how the
  43. 1:22top 20 single cards from every single
  44. 1:24set in the Sword and Shield era that has
  45. 1:27a booster box and how it has performed
  46. 1:29from September 2023 till now. And as you
  47. 1:31can see, as a whole, those what? 12
  48. 1:34times 20 cards each, those 240 cards
  49. 1:36have given a 153 or 158.3% gain from
  50. 1:41September 2023 till now. Now, take a
  51. 1:43look at what the booster boxes have
  52. 1:45done. The booster boxes have in from
  53. 1:47terms of rate of return, absolutely
  54. 1:49crushed it, right? It is up 288
  55. 1:52.6% over the exact same timeframe. And
  56. 1:54so, what what do for booster boxes we
  57. 1:56said, "Hey, listen, if you were to buy
  58. 1:57one of all 12 booster boxes, how much
  59. 2:00would that cost?" And you can see how
  60. 2:01both of these have moved over time. But,
  61. 2:03what's been really exciting is if you
  62. 2:05look over on the far right-hand side,
  63. 2:07look at how both booster boxes and top
  64. 2:0920 single cards have been working their
  65. 2:11way down over the last several months.
  66. 2:13That is what I get excited about. Now,
  67. 2:15what's even more exciting to me is
  68. 2:18month-over-month. Now, again, I'm going
  69. 2:19to show you this in detail here in just
  70. 2:21a second, and I do two videos. Today,
  71. 2:22we're going to talk a lot about sealed
  72. 2:24in the market as a whole, but I've got a
  73. 2:25follow-up video where we talk about
  74. 2:27single cards. But, for me, from last
  75. 2:29month to this month, zero. Now,
  76. 2:31remember, we're going to talk about
  77. 2:32specialty sets, too. But, zero of these
  78. 2:3417 sets from the Sword & Shield era were
  79. 2:37positive month-over-month in terms of
  80. 2:39top 20 single cards growth.
  81. 2:41That we've seen before, but almost
  82. 2:43never. And when you think about that,
  83. 2:45what happens traditionally the month
  84. 2:46after that is you might get one, two,
  85. 2:48maybe even three or four sets that turn
  86. 2:50positive, but traditionally, in the
  87. 2:52past, when we've seen every single set
  88. 2:54red month-over-month, the month after
  89. 2:56that, we don't see the overall market
  90. 2:58turn green. So, I've got that in the
  91. 3:00back of my mind. And then, in terms of
  92. 3:02booster boxes, four of the eight turned
  93. 3:04positive, but guess what? The overall
  94. 3:06booster box market was still down in the
  95. 3:08Sword & Shield era month-over-month. As
  96. 3:10you can see, booster boxes were down
  97. 3:113.62%
  98. 3:13from last month to this month, and those
  99. 3:15top 20 singles aggregate is down 2.92%.
  100. 3:18Now, the biggest thing, this is the
  101. 3:19thing that I'm going to dig into is we
  102. 3:21have never seen booster boxes be
  103. 3:22negative 4 months in a row in the Sword
  104. 3:24& Shield space. When you think about
  105. 3:26buying high-quality Pokémon cards and
  106. 3:28products that are going to be durable
  107. 3:30over the course of time, you and I and
  108. 3:32everybody else out there knows
  109. 3:34sealed is as safe a product as you can
  110. 3:36buy. Nothing is safe, nothing is
  111. 3:37guaranteed a guarantee, right, in the
  112. 3:39Pokémon world. But, if you want downside
  113. 3:42protection and upside opportunity, we
  114. 3:44all know that sealed products in the
  115. 3:45Pokémon world are one of the best bets.
  116. 3:47And so, when you see four consecutive
  117. 3:50months of these 12 booster boxes being
  118. 3:52down month over month in a set that's as
  119. 3:55amazing as the sword and shield era is,
  120. 3:56like it just has you scratching your
  121. 3:58head a little bit because we all know
  122. 4:00the best time to get in on products is
  123. 4:02not when they're sky high, it's when
  124. 4:04they start to pull back a little bit.
  125. 4:05So, we're going to have a ton of fun
  126. 4:07talking about all of those booster
  127. 4:08boxes. I'm going to give you my personal
  128. 4:10favorites here at the very end. And
  129. 4:11before I get into the rest of the video,
  130. 4:13I got to give my selfish little plug
  131. 4:15because as you can see we've been doing
  132. 4:16this for a long time. We put a ton of
  133. 4:18work into bringing you the very best
  134. 4:19data that we can. So, if you get into
  135. 4:21this video, if you're having fun, if you
  136. 4:22take something away from it, hit that
  137. 4:24subscribe button or give us a thumbs up.
  138. 4:25Those two small things go a long way in
  139. 4:27helping my channel out and it's the best
  140. 4:29way to say thank you for everything that
  141. 4:30we do. Now, I don't just have these
  142. 4:32colorful graphs as most of you are well
  143. 4:34aware.
  144. 4:35I have a website that I built and on
  145. 4:36that website we have every single era
  146. 4:38where you can track every single set and
  147. 4:40how it's moved month over month. In
  148. 4:42terms of sword and shield, you can go
  149. 4:43all the way back to September of 2023.
  150. 4:46So, this is what that looks like in
  151. 4:48terms of the top 20 single cards and
  152. 4:50this is where I really want to call out
  153. 4:52what's been happening here in the
  154. 4:53market. And when I talk about using this
  155. 4:55information to help you be able to make
  156. 4:57plays and help you decide, "Listen, I'm
  157. 4:59never going to tell you when to buy or
  158. 5:00sell." But, the data can certainly point
  159. 5:02you in a direction and I have this
  160. 5:04yellow box right there in the very
  161. 5:05middle, right? Obviously, that is when
  162. 5:08the sword and shield single card space
  163. 5:10started to really heat up. But, then if
  164. 5:11you look on the left-hand side and if
  165. 5:13you look on the right-hand side, we have
  166. 5:14these periods of markets cooling down
  167. 5:16and that is the opportunity here. If you
  168. 5:18can identify when markets are starting
  169. 5:20to cool down, but most importantly when
  170. 5:22they start to turn a little bit
  171. 5:23positive. Take a look at January of
  172. 5:252026. That was the final month before
  173. 5:28the sword and shield market started to
  174. 5:29get hot again. In February, March,
  175. 5:31April, May, June, all the way through
  176. 5:34till July of 2026. What do you see in
  177. 5:36January of 2026? You see 1 2 3 4 5 sets
  178. 5:40that had started to turn green, right?
  179. 5:41In December you saw five sets that were
  180. 5:43starting to turn green. But, then in
  181. 5:45November you only saw two sets. So, when
  182. 5:47I talk about where we're at today, what
  183. 5:49it's going to take for the market to
  184. 5:50start turning positive, I don't think
  185. 5:52next month we're going to have four,
  186. 5:53five, or six sets just magically turn
  187. 5:55green in the Sword and Shield space.
  188. 5:57Maybe we will, who knows, but all I can
  189. 5:59say is in the past, there's going to be
  190. 6:00a little bit of a build-up to it. And
  191. 6:02when you look to the right of that
  192. 6:04yellow box, look at how red everything
  193. 6:06was. August, we only had two sets that
  194. 6:08were positive. September, we only had
  195. 6:11one. And then here we are in October,
  196. 6:13all of them are red top to bottom. It's
  197. 6:15hard for me to imagine everything just
  198. 6:16fundamentally shifting month-over-month.
  199. 6:18Now, we will hit a period where things
  200. 6:20start to slow down. Like I said, we'll
  201. 6:21have a couple that will turn green. But
  202. 6:23for me, we'll probably have another
  203. 6:25month. So, I'm not necessarily jumping
  204. 6:26in quite yet, but I'm going to wait and
  205. 6:28see when we start to see a couple of
  206. 6:29these sets turning positive, then that
  207. 6:31will tell me, "Hey, listen, this might
  208. 6:32be a great time to jump in on some of
  209. 6:33these really cool cards."
  210. 6:35Now, from the booster box perspective, I
  211. 6:37have a lot of colors on this page, but
  212. 6:39this is the same thing. Now, I have the
  213. 6:41singles and I have this booster box
  214. 6:43filtered uh just to a 12-month view, but
  215. 6:45obviously on the website, you can go
  216. 6:46back all the way to January of 20 or
  217. 6:48excuse me, September 2023. It's really
  218. 6:50cool. You can just look at the colors
  219. 6:52and you can see these cyclical patterns,
  220. 6:53and that's what I love about this
  221. 6:55Pokémon space so much is we can use
  222. 6:57these patterns to our advantage. Now,
  223. 7:00the reason I have all of these beautiful
  224. 7:01colors on here is because there are some
  225. 7:04booster boxes which are starting to turn
  226. 7:06positive. And for me, that's a good
  227. 7:08thing. Usually, the booster boxes, when
  228. 7:09we're going through a period of
  229. 7:10regression, the booster boxes will kind
  230. 7:12of be the very first ones to make the
  231. 7:14turn, right? The sealed product. Again,
  232. 7:16less volatile than single cards. And so,
  233. 7:18when I look at the ones that are
  234. 7:19starting to turn positive, I see three
  235. 7:21big names, right? You see Fusion Strike,
  236. 7:23you see Lost Origin, you see Silver
  237. 7:25Tempest. And I'll give you a better
  238. 7:26visual representation that of here in
  239. 7:28just a second. But also, when you look
  240. 7:29at the sets that are negative, you see
  241. 7:31three big names that are negative as
  242. 7:33well. You got Brilliant Stars, you got
  243. 7:34Chilling Reign, you got Evolving Skies.
  244. 7:36Evolving Skies booster boxes have been
  245. 7:38negative three of the last four months.
  246. 7:40And if you look at Chilling Reign,
  247. 7:42Chilling Reign has been negative four
  248. 7:43consecutive months. And if you look at
  249. 7:45Brilliant Stars, those booster boxes
  250. 7:46have been down three consecutive months.
  251. 7:48So,
  252. 7:49when I talked earlier in this video
  253. 7:50about identifying value, identifying
  254. 7:52opportunities, like even if you just
  255. 7:54look at these color patterns here, you
  256. 7:56notice that you don't have those real
  257. 7:58defined green and red blocks like we did
  258. 8:00on the single cards. Sealed product just
  259. 8:02has a tendency to be much more durable
  260. 8:04in the long run. And so, when I see
  261. 8:05these things start to pull back,
  262. 8:07especially these big names, man, that's
  263. 8:09a great time to take advantage of it.
  264. 8:10So,
  265. 8:11here's what I wanted to highlight, too.
  266. 8:12When I talk about kind of the
  267. 8:14unprecedentedness
  268. 8:15of what we're going through, we have
  269. 8:17never, again, since we started
  270. 8:19monitoring this month-over-month
  271. 8:20information, we have never seen four
  272. 8:23consecutive months of booster box
  273. 8:25pullbacks. But, what we have seen in the
  274. 8:27past is we have seen at least three
  275. 8:29months. So, prior to this, we had three
  276. 8:31different downturn cycles in the Sword &
  277. 8:33Shield booster box era. If you look,
  278. 8:35October to December of 2023, three
  279. 8:38consecutive months were booster boxes
  280. 8:39pulled back. They were down 5.1%. Then
  281. 8:42you look July to September 2024, again,
  282. 8:44three months of red, and it was only
  283. 8:46down 3%. November to December of 2025,
  284. 8:50we had a big pullback, just two months,
  285. 8:52but man, those were two brutal months,
  286. 8:53and it was down 10.5%. And then if you
  287. 8:56look at what we're going through right
  288. 8:57now, from June to October of 2026, our
  289. 9:00first time ever with four consecutive
  290. 9:02months, and it is down almost a full
  291. 9:0410%. Remember, once you're down 10%, you
  292. 9:07are in full-on correction territory. So,
  293. 9:09we are almost there. And again, this is
  294. 9:11the second biggest pullback that we have
  295. 9:13seen in the Sword & Shield era from a
  296. 9:15booster box perspective since we've ever
  297. 9:17started monitoring that. That is a big
  298. 9:19deal. That is not something to ignore.
  299. 9:21And as I said earlier, we're seeing some
  300. 9:23of the bleeding come from the biggest
  301. 9:24sets out there. So, I wanted to give
  302. 9:26this individual subset of information
  303. 9:28its own slide because this is really,
  304. 9:30really important to grab a hold of. Now,
  305. 9:32the next thing that I want to talk
  306. 9:33about, too, is listen, it's not all bad.
  307. 9:35We talked about this a minute ago. There
  308. 9:37are some sets and some very big sets
  309. 9:40which are just starting to turn
  310. 9:41positive. But man, I mean, we are
  311. 9:42talking about slivers here. We aren't
  312. 9:45seeing 3, 4, 5% jumps in these booster
  313. 9:47boxes. We are talking about ones that
  314. 9:49are just barely starting to make the
  315. 9:50turn. However, the number of green
  316. 9:53booster boxes increased
  317. 9:55month-over-month. Remember what I talked
  318. 9:56about in the single card space? I said,
  319. 9:58"Hey, listen, like I don't normally see
  320. 10:00things go from all red one month to a
  321. 10:02majority green the next month. Normally,
  322. 10:04it's more of a slower rotation.
  323. 10:06Same thing happens in the booster box
  324. 10:08space and I feel like we're deeper into
  325. 10:10that rotation than we are in the single
  326. 10:11card space. Remember what I said
  327. 10:13earlier, normally booster boxes are the
  328. 10:14first ones to make the move. So, if you
  329. 10:16look in September, we had two of the 12
  330. 10:19booster boxes that were positive
  331. 10:21month-over-month. Now, look at October.
  332. 10:23We have four of the 12 booster boxes
  333. 10:25that are positive month-over-month. So,
  334. 10:26we're starting to see, you know, the
  335. 10:28breath is starting to improve a little
  336. 10:29bit. More than that, we're moving in the
  337. 10:31right direction, but the drawdown was
  338. 10:33actually bigger. Now, a big part of that
  339. 10:35is Evolving Skies. Evolving Skies
  340. 10:37booster boxes got absolutely waylaid. So
  341. 10:39much so that I have a slide dedicated to
  342. 10:41that here in just a couple, but what I
  343. 10:43want to talk about here is the four that
  344. 10:45are turning green are just barely making
  345. 10:47that turn. So, this isn't a huge turn. I
  346. 10:49mean, look at Vivid Voltage, obviously
  347. 10:51not the most popular set out there, but
  348. 10:52Vivid Voltage
  349. 10:54up 1.5% month-over-month. Silver Tempest
  350. 10:57up 0.8% month-over-month. Fusion Strike
  351. 10:59only up half a percent month-over-month.
  352. 11:01And Lost Origin, yes, it's green, but as
  353. 11:03far as I'm concerned, that's
  354. 11:04directionally flat, only up 0.1%
  355. 11:06month-over-month. And when you look to
  356. 11:08the right, look at the biggest losers. I
  357. 11:09mean, we had huge drops in some of the
  358. 11:11biggest names from the Sword & Shield
  359. 11:13era. Evolving Skies was down 9%,
  360. 11:15Chilling Reign down almost 7%, Brilliant
  361. 11:18Stars down 4.3, Darkness Ablaze, again,
  362. 11:21not an all-time set for any stretch of
  363. 11:23the imagination, right? But it's still
  364. 11:24down 4.1%. So, again, more are turning
  365. 11:27green, but I do think this is just the
  366. 11:29beginning. I think this This just the
  367. 11:30beginning of people starting to realize
  368. 11:32my goodness these booster boxes are
  369. 11:33super undervalued and if that mentality
  370. 11:36is going to start hitting it, I'm going
  371. 11:37to be looking really hard at evolving
  372. 11:39skies chilling rain and brilliant stars
  373. 11:40cuz I don't know how much further
  374. 11:41they're going to drop. Now the other
  375. 11:43thing that I want to talk about here is
  376. 11:44listen, we talked about the movers and
  377. 11:45shakers. Let's look at all of them,
  378. 11:47right? I showed you eight. I wanted to
  379. 11:48show you all 12 of them. A little bit of
  380. 11:50a redundant slide, but as you can see
  381. 11:52the breakdown here evolving skies at the
  382. 11:53very bottom. In the middle some of the
  383. 11:55ones that didn't get talked about. Sword
  384. 11:57and Shield again pretty much
  385. 11:58directionally flat. Rebel Clash was down
  386. 12:00.6% Astral Radiance down .8% Battle
  387. 12:04Styles is not that terrible of a set.
  388. 12:05You got Alt Arts in there. You got the
  389. 12:07sleepy T Tar.
  390. 12:09That box is down 3.7% but still the
  391. 12:12majority of these are red month over
  392. 12:14month. We saw a big overall loss and
  393. 12:16again just starting to see those things
  394. 12:18start to make the turn as far as I'm
  395. 12:19concerned. Now this is a really cool
  396. 12:21graphical representation. So this is
  397. 12:24Evolving Skies and this is how the
  398. 12:26Evolving Skies single cards and booster
  399. 12:28boxes moved from October 2025 to October
  400. 12:322026. Now I'm not telling you anything
  401. 12:34you don't know but Evolving Skies is the
  402. 12:35biggest and baddest set in the Sword and
  403. 12:37Shield era, right? The Moon Brionne is
  404. 12:39absolutely lights out. The Rayquaza that
  405. 12:41you have coming in there. The Alt Art on
  406. 12:43there. Like the trainer gallery that
  407. 12:44whole set is just absolutely insane top
  408. 12:48to bottom. Absolutely love it. You got
  409. 12:49the VMAXs. You got the V Alt Arts. You
  410. 12:51got the Evolutions, right? Just an
  411. 12:53incredible set in and of itself. But
  412. 12:55take a look at what the booster box has
  413. 12:56done over the last year. The booster box
  414. 12:58is actually down 14% while the single
  415. 13:01cards are up 12.7%. Look at how the
  416. 13:04orange line and the blue line cross. You
  417. 13:06we don't see that happen that often. And
  418. 13:08we specifically don't see it in some of
  419. 13:10these biggest sets. So for me this is a
  420. 13:12big call out. Like this is a big deal.
  421. 13:14You look at the singles over the last 3
  422. 13:16months. Yeah, they're down a little bit
  423. 13:18but the booster boxes are down almost
  424. 13:2018% from that June high. Now don't get
  425. 13:22me wrong. Evolving Skies booster boxes
  426. 13:25are still big and expensive but when you
  427. 13:27think about the opportunity to jump in
  428. 13:29on these during the middle of a market
  429. 13:31downturn, if you don't have any Evolving
  430. 13:33Skies or if it's something you just
  431. 13:34wanted to add more of, if you think, and
  432. 13:35I'm not saying it will be, but if you're
  433. 13:37one of those people who think that
  434. 13:38that's going to be destined to be like a
  435. 13:39$5,000 booster box far into the future,
  436. 13:42these are some of those opportunities
  437. 13:44that you would want to be looking at.
  438. 13:45Matter of fact, if you look at the way
  439. 13:47those chase card, the Moonbreon has
  440. 13:49performed versus the booster box, you
  441. 13:51see the exact same crossing pattern
  442. 13:53here. Now, the graph that you see right
  443. 13:55here, this goes all the way back to
  444. 13:57January of 2025, so we're plotting the
  445. 13:59booster box, we're plotting the
  446. 14:01uh the the excuse me, the chase card,
  447. 14:03the Moonbreon here as well. And as you
  448. 14:05can see, overall, both of them have
  449. 14:07delivered huge returns, right? From
  450. 14:09January 2025 all the way till now, uh
  451. 14:11the booster box is up 65% uh and the
  452. 14:14chase card is up 84%, so that's nothing
  453. 14:16to shake a fist at, but you can see that
  454. 14:18the sealed product for most of the time,
  455. 14:20the orange line on there, was actually
  456. 14:22beating the rate of return versus the
  457. 14:24chase card. Now, we've seen the
  458. 14:26opposite, the rate of return has
  459. 14:27actually gotten better for the Moonbreon
  460. 14:29versus the booster box itself. And as
  461. 14:31you can see on our support line
  462. 14:32dashboard, the booster box is actually
  463. 14:34being called out because it's 17.3%
  464. 14:37below its all-time high, which we talked
  465. 14:38about there just a minute ago. So, this
  466. 14:40is a product which is actually on my
  467. 14:42personal watch list. I don't know what
  468. 14:44I'm waiting for. I can't I Again, who
  469. 14:46knows? I don't have a crystal ball, but
  470. 14:47man, can you imagine if Evolving Skies
  471. 14:49booster boxes actually got to $2,000
  472. 14:51again or maybe even dropped just a
  473. 14:53little bit below? Look at where that
  474. 14:55orange line is. I mean, we're actually
  475. 14:56the buying it below significantly higher
  476. 14:59all-time prices. So, Evolving Skies is
  477. 15:01an I don't know, it's a very interesting
  478. 15:03thing. It's hard for me to talk about a
  479. 15:04$2,000 booster box, but still, if it
  480. 15:06drops down to that $2,000 threshold,
  481. 15:08man, it would be worth a very, very hard
  482. 15:10look.
  483. 15:11Next product, you know how much I love
  484. 15:13Brilliant Stars. And when you take a
  485. 15:15look, this is very different, right? You
  486. 15:17take a look at what the orange line has
  487. 15:18done versus what the purple line has
  488. 15:20done. Uh the obviously the Charizard V
  489. 15:22Alt Art hasn't quite performed as well
  490. 15:24as the booster box, but this is a
  491. 15:26catch-up. You so if you watch this
  492. 15:27channel over the last several years, you
  493. 15:29know, I've been a huge fan of Brilliant
  494. 15:31Stars booster boxes. The lineup for the
  495. 15:32set is incredible. The Charizard, even
  496. 15:34though it doesn't have a crazy price
  497. 15:36point to it, it is still anchored by an
  498. 15:38Alt Art Charizard card. And we've
  499. 15:39watched the booster box gain a lot of
  500. 15:41ground. Matter of fact, I included that
  501. 15:43snippet up there so you can see where
  502. 15:44these booster boxes and the chase cards
  503. 15:46have performed over the last three, six,
  504. 15:48and nine months. But this booster box
  505. 15:49right now, it's down 11 and 1/2% versus
  506. 15:52where it was before. You know, this is a
  507. 15:54set that I think is going to age
  508. 15:56phenomenally well. Now, 560 bucks,
  509. 15:58again, this is a ton of money for a
  510. 16:00booster box. But again, you just don't
  511. 16:02see these pullbacks very often. Over the
  512. 16:04last six months, this thing is down 10%.
  513. 16:07It's down 11 and 1/2% versus its
  514. 16:09all-time high. Like this is a booster
  515. 16:11box, which I think does have a lot of
  516. 16:13room to grow in the future. Sun and Moon
  517. 16:15was a very different era, very different
  518. 16:17print quality, quantities, and very few
  519. 16:19people were sealed collecting back then
  520. 16:21like they are today. So you have to take
  521. 16:23it with a grain of salt, but I continue
  522. 16:24to look at the Sun and Moon era
  523. 16:27and figure out how many booster boxes in
  524. 16:29that era are over the $1,000 threshold
  525. 16:31at this point. There's a ton of them,
  526. 16:32right? And I don't think Sword and
  527. 16:33Shield is going to do a one-for-one, but
  528. 16:35I certainly think this, one of the top
  529. 16:37cards in the sword or sets in the Sword
  530. 16:38and Shield era, certainly has that type
  531. 16:40of upside to it. So as I watch it pull
  532. 16:42down, again, you see the nine-month
  533. 16:44trend on the booster box is negative.
  534. 16:45You can see that the chase card has been
  535. 16:47doing relatively well over the last nine
  536. 16:48months. So this is a set that I truly
  537. 16:50have my eye on. And as you can see that
  538. 16:51green little watch list thing is
  539. 16:53clicked. This is another one which is on
  540. 16:54my personal watch list.
  541. 16:56Finally, Chilling Reign. You know,
  542. 16:58Chilling Reign was the number three set
  543. 17:00in the entire Sword and Shield era for a
  544. 17:02very, very long time if you just went by
  545. 17:04booster box pricing. Brilliant Stars was
  546. 17:07number four. We always knew that, you
  547. 17:09know, listen, Evolving Skies was going
  548. 17:10to be number one, Fusion Strike was
  549. 17:11going to be number two, Lost Origin was
  550. 17:13going to be number three. As I said,
  551. 17:14Chilling Reign was number four for a
  552. 17:16long time. Brilliant Stars was number
  553. 17:17five. You know, we really felt that
  554. 17:19Brilliant Stars was eventually going to
  555. 17:21overtake Chilling Reign, which it ended
  556. 17:23up doing. That's a great lesson for
  557. 17:24today's market as well. Listen, even
  558. 17:26though a current set might be
  559. 17:28undervalued, aka Surging Sparks, you
  560. 17:31have to look at the card lineup. Like
  561. 17:32the card lineup in the long run is going
  562. 17:35to matter the most, right? It just is
  563. 17:37very, very important to keep your eyes
  564. 17:39on that. Warren Buffett has this awesome
  565. 17:41saying about investing. He said the
  566. 17:43stock market in the short world in the
  567. 17:45short run is a voting machine. People
  568. 17:47are voting up and people are voting
  569. 17:48down. In the long run, it's a weighing
  570. 17:50machine. Like the weight and the value
  571. 17:51of something is what's going to matter
  572. 17:53over the long run. Same thing for the
  573. 17:54Pokémon market. We see it happen time
  574. 17:56and time again. In the short run, it's a
  575. 17:58voting machine. People FOMO in, they
  576. 18:00panic out, prices go all over the place.
  577. 18:03If you have a long-term time horizon,
  578. 18:05buy quality sets with big-name Pokémon
  579. 18:07that are super deep, and I promise you
  580. 18:09the value will unlock itself given
  581. 18:11enough time. The Chilling Reign and the
  582. 18:13Brilliant Stars flip is a great example
  583. 18:15of that, and I encourage you to use that
  584. 18:17same type of methodology when you're
  585. 18:19looking at Scarlet and Violet and the
  586. 18:20mega series sets as well. So,
  587. 18:22when you look at Chilling Reign, it was
  588. 18:24pulled back a little bit, and
  589. 18:25unfortunately the kicking chicken, even
  590. 18:26though the Blaziken alt art is a really
  591. 18:28awesome card, you know, it just hasn't
  592. 18:30quite had a lot of pizzazz over the
  593. 18:32last, you know, from January 2025 till
  594. 18:34now, you'll see it's only up about 15%.
  595. 18:36Uh but the booster box hasn't seen the
  596. 18:38type of growth we've seen in some of the
  597. 18:39other products. So, it's only up 37.3%.
  598. 18:43Uh it's about 20% off of its all-time
  599. 18:45high, and this is another one where
  600. 18:47sometimes the price matters. Like this
  601. 18:49is silly. I never say buy something just
  602. 18:51because it's cheap, but again, we went
  603. 18:52through the lineup. This is going to be
  604. 18:54the number five set in the Sword and
  605. 18:55Shield era. We're deep enough into it.
  606. 18:57Like we've already seen the rotation
  607. 18:58between this and Brilliant Stars. I
  608. 19:00don't think anything's going to overtake
  609. 19:01Chilling Reign. It's coming in at 450
  610. 19:04bucks, which is still a lot of money,
  611. 19:05but if you have a long-term time
  612. 19:07horizon, I think the set is going to do
  613. 19:08really well. As I said, the chase card
  614. 19:10la- lacks that huge chase card at the
  615. 19:12very top. Although I'm telling you right
  616. 19:14now, it's still at $382, but it doesn't
  617. 19:17have the name brand recognition of a
  618. 19:18Charizard or a Pikachu or a Rayquaza or,
  619. 19:20you know, a Moonbreon or anything like
  620. 19:22that, but the set as a whole is super
  621. 19:24deep, lots of awesome artwork, and I
  622. 19:26think because it's 20% off its all-time
  623. 19:28high right now, it's one that we
  624. 19:29certainly shouldn't ignore.
  625. 19:31The final set I'm going to talk about is
  626. 19:33Lost Origin. Huge fan of Lost Origin,
  627. 19:35have been for a very long time as well,
  628. 19:37and I wanted to include this. So, when
  629. 19:39you look at the sealed products on the
  630. 19:40website, I include these little blocks,
  631. 19:42and you can just see at a quick view how
  632. 19:43things have done, 3 months, 6 months,
  633. 19:45and 9 months. And I was taking a look at
  634. 19:47how the trainer boxes have performed.
  635. 19:49So, you have the Pokémon Center
  636. 19:50exclusive ETB, and you have the regular
  637. 19:53ETB. And if you look, they've kind of
  638. 19:54moved in lockstep. Pokémon Center
  639. 19:56exclusive ETB has outperformed, but
  640. 19:58still, if you look over the last 3
  641. 20:00months, one is down 15%, one is down 3%.
  642. 20:02If you look over 6 months, one is up 5%,
  643. 20:05one is up 24%. Then if you look at the
  644. 20:069-month trend, the regular is up 31%,
  645. 20:09and the PC ETB is up almost 50%. But
  646. 20:11then if you look at the booster boxes,
  647. 20:13the booster box is down 2.5%. Okay, that
  648. 20:16kind of tracks with the other ones, but
  649. 20:17take a look at the long-term growth.
  650. 20:19Like, the booster box over 6 months is
  651. 20:21only up 1.7%. The booster box over 9
  652. 20:24months is only up 4%, and you compare
  653. 20:27that to where the Pokémon Center
  654. 20:28exclusive ETB is up 50% over 9 months,
  655. 20:31the regular ETB is up 32% over 9 months.
  656. 20:34You know, the booster box in terms of
  657. 20:36rate of growth over the last 9 months
  658. 20:38has lagged both the regular ETB and the
  659. 20:40Pokémon Center exclusive ETB. This is a
  660. 20:43set where the lineup is so great, I
  661. 20:45don't think you can go wrong with it.
  662. 20:46Now, I've been talking about it a lot,
  663. 20:47probably last 3 or 4 months this set has
  664. 20:49been featured on this video. Because it
  665. 20:51is still down over the last 3 months,
  666. 20:53because the growth has been so muted
  667. 20:54over the last 9, I still think booster
  668. 20:56boxes are a phenomenal play. So,
  669. 20:58I thought this was an awesome takeaway.
  670. 21:00I thought this was a cool way to look at
  671. 21:01it. I hope the graphics really helped
  672. 21:03everybody kind of get a better
  673. 21:04understanding uh what's happening.
  674. 21:06Obviously, I still think the streaks tab
  675. 21:08on the website is one of the very best
  676. 21:10tools out there. I use it almost daily.
  677. 21:12I look at it all the time whenever I'm
  678. 21:13trying to figure out what plays I'm
  679. 21:14going to make or content that I can
  680. 21:15bring for you. So, if you're interested
  681. 21:17in that, check it out. No matter what,
  682. 21:19listen, I can't thank you enough for
  683. 21:20watching. If you made it to the end and
  684. 21:21you got something out of this, hit the
  685. 21:22subscribe button, give us a thumbs up.
  686. 21:24But, most important to me is I hope you
  687. 21:26have an epic rest of your day. All
  688. 21:27right, everybody. I'll talk to you soon.
  689. 21:28See you. Bye.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of This Has Never Happened Before... And the Window May Be Closing by PikaPikaPaPa, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,966 words across 689 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.