This 15 Minute Day Trading Model Happens EVERYDAY (8.30am Macro) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00At 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time,
2. 0:02every single day, a macro runs behind
3. 0:05the scenes that is coded to deliver
4. 0:07price to a specific area. If you know
5. 0:10what you're looking for, this time macro
6. 0:12can give you some incredible trade
7. 0:14setups that can literally print you
8. 0:16money. What I'm about to show you
9. 0:17totally changed the game for me and is
10. 0:20based on an incredibly simple framework
11. 0:22that I call dealing range theory or DRT.
12. 0:26I'm going to walk you through last
13. 0:27week's price action and take you through
14. 0:29each day to show you how effective this
15. 0:32model actually is and how many of my
16. 0:34students are using this framework to
17. 0:36completely turn their trading around.
18. 0:39Let's get into the charts. So, here we
19. 0:41are on the 15-minute chart for the
20. 0:43British pound. Now, the first thing that
21. 0:45I want to do is I want to delineate the
22. 0:478:30 a.m. candle and this is on Friday's
23. 0:50price action. Prior to 8:30 a.m., I want
24. 0:54to establish where is price at 8:30
25. 0:57relative to the current dealing range.
26. 1:00And I can clearly see here that the
27. 1:02highest high inside of this range is up
28. 1:05here and the lowest low is down here. I
29. 1:08can therefore plot my dealing range and
30. 1:10of course my DRT levels. Now, I'm not
31. 1:12going to go into a whole lot of detail
32. 1:14on dealing range theory in this video,
33. 1:16but I have a whole series dedicated to
34. 1:19dealing range theory for free right here
35. 1:22on this YouTube channel. Now, one of my
36. 1:24favorite sayings when it comes to really
37. 1:26understanding and interpreting price
38. 1:28action is in order to establish where
39. 1:30price is going to go next, we need to
40. 1:32establish what price has already done.
41. 1:35So, prior to 8:30, which is obviously
42. 1:38the New York session, we have the
43. 1:40benefit of having the London session
44. 1:42behind us. Now, that gives us a great
45. 1:44deal of information. The first thing
46. 1:45that we can see is inside of the London
47. 1:48session, we have already run the Asian
48. 1:51session highs. So, we've seen a buy-side
49. 1:54liquidity pool raided and then the
50. 1:56market has dropped lower, closing below
51. 2:00these lows and breaking structure. So,
52. 2:02already is giving us a bearish
53. 2:04indication. The second thing is above
54. 2:07the market, we can see that prior to
55. 2:10that 8:30 a.m. candle printing, price
56. 2:13had traded into this inversion fair
57. 2:16value gap. Notice how the consequent
58. 2:19encroachment of that gap overlaps with a
59. 2:2175 DRT level. That's how we know we have
60. 2:24the correct dealing range. Look at the
61. 2:26wick of this candle. It fails to touch
62. 2:29consequent encroachment, and then we see
63. 2:31the body close down here. This is
64. 2:33significant. It tells us that the market
65. 2:36here is heavy. Also, these consecutive
66. 2:39up close candles we can consider a
67. 2:41bearish order block. At 8:30, we dip
68. 2:44into to the opening price, and we
69. 2:46already have order flow on our side. And
70. 2:49I mean algorithmic order flow here
71. 2:51specifically. And now, since we're in a
72. 2:53continuation lower, we can also grade
73. 2:55this as a type one dealing range, and we
74. 2:58can see that we're above the halfway
75. 2:59point here, but I'll leave that homework
76. 3:01for yourself. It's also worth noting
77. 3:03that the bodies don't close above this
78. 3:06immediate rebalance to the left. So,
79. 3:08that's one for your notes. Quick one.
80. 3:11I've been working on something that I've
81. 3:12never really done publicly before. On
82. 3:15May the 18th, I'm running a 5-day live
83. 3:18challenge called the high probability
84. 3:20trading challenge. Creative, I know. And
85. 3:22I'm going to teach the exact process I
86. 3:25used to look for any setup on any pair
87. 3:27in any session, and know it in under 5
88. 3:30minutes whether it's worth my time or
89. 3:32not. This is the same framework I've
90. 3:34kept close to my chest for years, and
91. 3:36only ever really taught it inside of my
92. 3:38private mentorship. On day one, I'm
93. 3:40showing you why 80% of the order blocks
94. 3:42and fair value gaps on your chart right
95. 3:44now were never going to work, and how to
96. 3:47spot the difference. And once you can
97. 3:48see which ones were never real, day two
98. 3:51gives you the three condition checklist
99. 3:53I run before I ever risk a single
100. 3:55dollar. From there, day three is where
101. 3:57we take that checklist and I show you
102. 3:59how I find the single highest
103. 4:01probability trade of the session in
104. 4:03under 30 minutes. Then day four, I'm
105. 4:05going to read the tape live and you're
106. 4:07going to see exactly how I apply
107. 4:09everything in real time. In day five,
108. 4:12you're going to be building your own
109. 4:13personal trading plan around your pairs,
110. 4:16your session and your schedule. Now,
111. 4:18tickets are capped because we're running
112. 4:20this live on Zoom and Zoom does have a
113. 4:22capacity limit, so it's a first come
114. 4:24first serve basis. Early bird tickets
115. 4:27are live right now. Click the link in
116. 4:29the description, grab yours before we
117. 4:31hit capacity. Right, let's get back to
118. 4:32it. Now, where is the market going to
119. 4:35draw towards? Well, first it will draw
120. 4:37back to equilibrium and into a discount.
121. 4:40Now, if we look carefully in a discount,
122. 4:42we see that we have this inefficiency
123. 4:45here in the form of this buy side
124. 4:46imbalance. So, this is going to be a
125. 4:48strong magnet for price to draw lower
126. 4:50and it's also in close proximity to the
127. 4:5375 DRT level. Note the bodies over here.
128. 4:57Now, if we take an entry at the low of
129. 4:59the order block, place our stop at the
130. 5:02order block high, and we target the 25
131. 5:05DRT level. This gives us a risk to
132. 5:06reward of 3.24.
133. 5:08There was also another smaller entry as
134. 5:10an institutional order flow entry drill
135. 5:13right inside of this fair value gap. Our
136. 5:15stop would go above the high and again
137. 5:17we could target the inefficiency, at
138. 5:19least consequent encroachment or again
139. 5:21that 25 DRT level. Let's scrub to the
140. 5:25left a little bit and let's get up
141. 5:27Thursday's price action. And again here
142. 5:29we delineate the 8:30 a.m. candle. Now
143. 5:31again, same thing. What we want to do is
144. 5:33we want to establish a dealing range
145. 5:35prior to 8:30 and we can clearly see
146. 5:39that the highest high is here and the
147. 5:41lowest low is here. Now, there's rules
148. 5:44of when I use the wicks and the bodies,
149. 5:47but that's beyond the scope of this
150. 5:49video. Now, again at 8:30 over here, we
151. 5:53have the benefit of London and we can
152. 5:55see that London has already raided these
153. 5:58lows from Asia and the Central Bank
154. 6:01Dealers Range to the left. So, we've
155. 6:03already seen a raid of sell-side
156. 6:04liquidity prior to the New York session.
157. 6:07At 8:30, we see this candle drop lower
158. 6:10and it absolutely nails the 25 DRT level
159. 6:14of this entire range. Now, if you look
160. 6:16closely, we have relative equal highs up
161. 6:18here, making this a type two dealing
162. 6:20range. And if you look closely again, we
163. 6:23have a small inversion fair value gap
164. 6:26that overlaps with that 25 DRT level. At
165. 6:298:30, we tap the low, we run away before
166. 6:33we close through the 50 DRT level, just
167. 6:35filling in some of this inefficiency to
168. 6:37the left. We drop back one more time,
169. 6:40nail consequent encroachment of that
170. 6:42inversion fair value gap, and then we
171. 6:44see the market really drive higher for
172. 6:46those relative equal highs above the
173. 6:49market. Now, this would have given us a
174. 6:51fantastic risk-to-reward entry. And it's
175. 6:53something that I actually went through
176. 6:55with my private students with a real
177. 6:57trade that I took, but the trade was
178. 6:59framed on a 1-minute time frame, so I
179. 7:01got really, really precise with my
180. 7:03entry. But, I've been doing this for
181. 7:05almost 10 years. If you're starting out
182. 7:07then as a safe stop, I'd put it below
183. 7:09the dealing range low. But, watch what
184. 7:11happens. We see the market drive and
185. 7:14close straight through the 50 and the 75
186. 7:17DRT level. And at that 75 DRT level
187. 7:21again, we have another inversion fair
188. 7:23value gap. We hit the consequent
189. 7:25encroachment over here, and then we see
190. 7:27price really drive higher for those
191. 7:30relative equal highs, but prior to that
192. 7:32happen, notice how it leaves these equal
193. 7:34highs. The algorithms engineering
194. 7:36buy-side liquidity above the market.
195. 7:39Now, here's what's also so
196. 7:40is that this here, this is also our
197. 7:43second stage of accumulation, right? So,
198. 7:46first stage down here, second stage up
199. 7:48here, but when we're accumulating in an
200. 7:50extreme premium, it's very unlikely for
201. 7:53the market to have a deep retracement,
202. 7:55in which case we would anticipate an
203. 7:57explosive move higher like we see over
204. 8:00here. Okay, let's go to the previous day
205. 8:02on Wednesday here at 8:30. Just going to
206. 8:04move me out the way. Now, same thing.
207. 8:07Where are we at 8:30 relative to the
208. 8:10current dealing range? We have the
209. 8:11dealing range high and we have the
210. 8:13dealing range low. Now, this one's a
211. 8:15little bit more trickier because at 8:30
212. 8:18we are already at equilibrium or that 50
213. 8:20DRT level. And if you're a student of
214. 8:22mine, you know that we would generally
215. 8:25see consolidation form around this area.
216. 8:28So, what we have to do is wait for
217. 8:31liquidity to engineer post 8:30 in the
218. 8:35form of equal highs and equal lows and
219. 8:37then wait for which side is going to be
220. 8:39raided. Now, with this displacement
221. 8:42lower, we already have a clue that the
222. 8:43market is likely to drop lower. And we
223. 8:47engineer equal highs over here, but note
224. 8:50the bodies at that 50 DRT level. We're
225. 8:52engineering a pool of sell-side
226. 8:54liquidity below the market. The market
227. 8:57then runs higher, taps the 75 DRT level,
228. 9:01but also note what overlaps that level.
229. 9:03We have this sell-side imbalance. Price
230. 9:06nails the consequent encroachment at
231. 9:08that 3:00 macro and then we see the
232. 9:10market spill lower to the external range
233. 9:14liquidity below the dealing range low.
234. 9:16So, we raid internal range liquidity and
235. 9:20then smart money pair short positions
236. 9:22and offset those positions as the market
237. 9:25distributes lower back to the sell stops
238. 9:28below the dealing range low. Since we
239. 9:30have this consolidation up here,
240. 9:32clearing buy-side, have a break in
241. 9:35structure here, and then we see the
242. 9:37market displaces lower, we can
243. 9:39anticipate a continuation lower, and
244. 9:41therefore we can interpret this high and
245. 9:44this low to form a type one dealing
246. 9:46range. In a type one dealing range, what
247. 9:48do we want to see happen if we are
248. 9:50bearish? We want to see the market
249. 9:52retrace into a premium above the 50 DRT
250. 9:57level, and that's where we have that
251. 9:59nested 75 DRT level fair value gap. So,
252. 10:03this gives us extra confluence for a
253. 10:05trade idea that also overlaps with our
254. 10:08down close candle right here. This is
255. 10:11going to be our mitigation block since
256. 10:13we have a high, low, and a lower high to
257. 10:17the right. Price fails to tap the mean
258. 10:19threshold here, again signifying
259. 10:22weakness, and this is how we interpret
260. 10:24PD arrays in the context of algorithmic
261. 10:27order flow. So, all of these things
262. 10:29stack up to give us clues, and look at
263. 10:30the reaction that we have from that
264. 10:32level, and price absolutely tanks. We
265. 10:34could have taken an entry at that 75 DRT
266. 10:37level, placed our stop above the
267. 10:40mitigation block, and then targeted for
268. 10:43the dealing range low. This would give
269. 10:44us a risk to reward of 3.5. Again, let's
270. 10:47move on to Tuesday's price action. Here
271. 10:50again at 8:30, we look back and see
272. 10:53where we are in relation to the current
273. 10:55dealing range from this high down to
274. 10:58this low. Now Now again, what has
275. 11:00happened prior to 8:30? We've already
276. 11:02seen the market drop lower, raid sell
277. 11:06side here with all these relatively
278. 11:08equal lows, and balance this inefficient
279. 11:11area of price. We're also seeing price
280. 11:15stay above the consequent encroachment
281. 11:18of this, and we have all these relative
282. 11:20equal highs above the market. Now again,
283. 11:22we're in a similar situation where we
284. 11:24have stage one accumulation, stage two
285. 11:27accumulation with relative equal highs
286. 11:30above the market prior to 8:30. So, we
287. 11:33have a whole lot of engineered buy side
288. 11:35above the market with a potential stage
289. 11:38two of accumulation. What's going to
290. 11:41happen? The market's going to explode at
291. 11:43that 8:30 macro to spool price to that
292. 11:46buy side liquidity pool, right? So, this
293. 11:48would have been a really nice scalping
294. 11:50opportunity. We've taken entry at the
295. 11:52consequent encroachment of this
296. 11:54reclaimed buy side imbalance, stop and
297. 11:57below it, and we could target the equal
298. 11:59highs above the market. We're also close
299. 12:01to that 400 big figure level, so we
300. 12:03should anticipate a real drive through
301. 12:06that price range. Now, looking at
302. 12:08Monday's price action, again, 8:30
303. 12:10delineated over here. Now, this one's a
304. 12:13little bit more trickier because this is
305. 12:15a smaller dealing range inside of a
306. 12:17larger parent dealing range. We already
307. 12:20have equal highs right here prior to
308. 12:238:30. See the market really run through
309. 12:26these equal highs into this inefficiency
310. 12:29that sits in a premium relative to the
311. 12:32parent dealing range high and low. And
312. 12:35you can see how we consolidate in that
313. 12:37area.
314. 12:38Engineered buy side liquidity above the
315. 12:40market, drop into that 50 DRT level,
316. 12:43which overlaps with this fair value gap
317. 12:46here. Look at the bodies failing to
318. 12:48close below the 50 DRT level, and then
319. 12:50we have price explode higher back
320. 12:53through the buy side up here into this
321. 12:55sell side imbalance that nests at that
322. 12:5775 DRT level. This would have been,
323. 13:00again, another nice scalp going from 50
324. 13:02DRT to the 75 DRT, which in itself is a
325. 13:06fantastic model. I have a lot of
326. 13:08students who just trade from one DRT
327. 13:11level to the next. In this case, you can
328. 13:13obviously see that there's very little
329. 13:15drawdown. Then the market really runs
330. 13:17for those engineered equal highs and
331. 13:20tags that 75 DRT level above. Now, one
332. 13:23thing that I want to be clear about is
333. 13:25I've been doing this for nearly 10
334. 13:27years. So, the way I can see the market
335. 13:29and obviously utilize dealing range
336. 13:31theory is not something that is going to
337. 13:33come overnight. You're going to have to
338. 13:35spend some time with this, back test it,
339. 13:37journal your findings. But, I can
340. 13:39promise you it's an extremely powerful
341. 13:42model, especially utilizing this model
342. 13:45at that 8:30 macro.