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These 5 Events May Determine Where the One Piece Market Goes Next + OP-17 Updates — Transcript

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0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
0:02Insight. In today's video, I'm going to
0:04be attempting to answer the question of
0:06how long are we going to stay in a
0:08correction and what are the potential
0:09catalysts that could pull us out of it.
0:11I'm also going to be trying to answer
0:12some of your other questions before
0:14finally checking in on OP7 to see where
0:17I think there are some potential values
0:19to be had right now and where I think we
0:21should continue to wait for prices to
0:22settle. So, with that, as always, this
0:25is intended to be interesting and
0:26informative, but not financial advice.
0:28Let's jump right in. Okay, so let's jump
0:30into our main topic for the day. Donald
0:32Zurampramp 4404 asks, "How long do you
0:36think this downtrend will last?" Which
0:38frankly I think is the question that
0:39most of us have on our minds. So the
0:40first is let's start with the
0:41fundamentals. So markets need to grow in
0:44order to remain stable, right? Every
0:46time we release a set, we're increasing
0:48the total number of cards in the
0:50ecosystem. All those cards have value.
0:52So, if you think about a card game from
0:54a market cap perspective, more money
0:57needs to come in for cards to retain
0:59their prices because new cards are
1:02always being printed, which if you took
1:03the same amount of money and divided by
1:04a larger denominator means the prices
1:07would go down, right? So, it's literally
1:09grow or die when it comes to TCGs. And
1:12so, there are three main ways in which
1:13this happens. So, number one, which
1:15we've seen a lot over the last few
1:17years, market for all TCGs grow, right?
1:20So this isn't a statement that like one
1:22game is doing better than the other. It
1:23means that there are more potential
1:25consumers for a given product and even
1:27if those percentages are distributed in
1:29a you know even way um a card game is
1:32getting some benefit from some of those
1:33folks looking their way. Now the second
1:35way is that One Piece takes market share
1:37from other TCGs. And I think we've seen
1:39a lot of this as well. We've seen people
1:41who collect Pokémon, people who collect
1:43magic uh coming over to One Piece and
1:47collecting less of another game, right?
1:49And so if all card games are going to
1:51grow, then the market needs to grow. But
1:53if a single card game is going to grow,
1:54it can absolutely cannibalize from other
1:56games. And then finally, current
1:58collectors spend more. And I think this
2:00is the main way in which current games
2:02continue to grow. Right? You have a
2:03player base that is always going to buy
2:04the cards they need to build their
2:06decks. You have a collector base that's
2:07always going to buy the cards they want
2:09from those boxes. So even though they're
2:11now committing more money to the game
2:12than they had been previously, you know,
2:13most collectors think of it as they have
2:15some amount of budget that they're
2:16willing to spend on their hobby. And so
2:18it is natural that collectors will
2:19continue to spend more on it the longer
2:21the game goes on. So in order to try to
2:24answer the question of how long I think
2:25this downturn is going to last, I wanted
2:27to look at some potential catalysts over
2:28the next few months from this framework
2:30to think about how the events could
2:32either expand the size of TCG markets,
2:35pull from other TCGs into OP, or
2:38convince OP collectors to continue to
2:41spend more money. So the first catalyst
2:43I want to talk about is the Pokemon 30th
2:44anniversary. It's hard to talk about
2:46trading cards right now and not talk
2:47about this. A ton of money is going to
2:49be spent on this. I think there are a
2:51couple big unknowns here. So, I have
2:53seen some speculation online. I don't
2:54have any good information about how
2:56valid it is that the print run uh for
2:59this is going to be exceptionally large.
3:01Like I know Rudy was talking about this
3:02on Alpha Investments. And so, while
3:04there's likely to be a lot of hype
3:06early, eventually there should be a lot
3:09of product for this. And so, I think
3:11this could go two ways. Number one, the
3:13cards do seem really hype. So, people
3:15seem really excited about it. I super
3:16get that if the prices of the product
3:18are high initially, that could pull a
3:20lot of money out of other TCGs. And I
3:23think part of what we have already seen
3:24is that some people have likely sold and
3:26taken profits on some One Piece things
3:28in order to prepare themselves for the
3:30Pokemon 30th anniversary. But then on
3:32the other hand, there is the possibility
3:33that the print run ends up being massive
3:36for this. Prices start out really high,
3:38but as the print run eventually starts
3:40to come closer to mean demand, we see
3:42prices fall, which then lowers
3:45confidence in the quality of Pokemon
3:46products, which then pushes people out
3:48of Pokemon into One Piece. I think of
3:51these two scenarios, I think the more
3:52likely one is that, you know, raw
3:55dollars are spent on this instead of
3:57being spent on One Piece. So, I think in
3:59the short term, this likely keeps more
4:01money out of the One Piece market. The
4:03next potential catalyst I want to talk
4:04about are possible big OP7 sales. We're
4:07seeing some of the first graded cards
4:09from OP7 come out. And part of what we
4:11saw in OP13 was that, you know, the RAW
4:13cards were expensive, but they weren't
4:15like crazy expensive. And then you start
4:17seeing PSA 10s, BGS10s, you know,
4:20selling for 30,4 $50,000.
4:24And that's what made people, you know,
4:26look up and say, "Huh, maybe we should
4:28be buying these boxes." And so I think
4:30there's an argument to say that like
4:32these like sticker shock big graded card
4:35sales have the potential to generate a
4:37lot of hype that brings more people into
4:39One Piece, it generates news that can
4:41bring more people into the hobby in
4:42general. But I also think that like, you
4:44know, if the Pokemon 30th anniversary is
4:47happening and like most of those cards
4:48are going down in price and you see a
4:50sale of the Crew Luffy for like $40,000
4:53in a BGS10 or like $70,000 in a BGS10
4:56black label, that might make people
4:58think, hey, maybe I should be in One
4:59Piece instead of in Pokemon, right? This
5:00is where the big money seems to be. I
5:03don't know that this is necessarily
5:04going to happen. We're going to do a
5:05little bit of a check-in on uh OP7 at
5:07the end of the video to see where things
5:09are. I don't think that the Crew Luffy
5:12is likely to be as expensive as the Red
5:15Mangal Luffy, but certainly particularly
5:17with early sales, it's possible that we
5:19see something very expensive uh that
5:21drives people into OP7, which then in
5:23turn brings more hype into the market.
5:25You know, also on the other hand, if the
5:27sales for this are lackluster, that
5:29could send a signal to the market that
5:30like, hey, One Piece isn't as healthy as
5:32we thought it was, right? So, I'm not
5:34anticipating
5:36like super lackluster sales for these
5:37cards. I do think they're going to be
5:38popular. I do think that if people's
5:40expectations are that they're going to
5:42be more expensive than OP13, like then
5:44the lived reality might contradict those
5:46expectations in a way that could sort of
5:48make the market look worse, even if the
5:50market fundamentally is still sound. But
5:53for now, you know, unless we see like
5:54massive sales that generate a lot of
5:56hype, I don't see this pulling us out of
5:57our current market correction. Now, the
5:59next catalyst I want to talk about is
6:00the holiday season. Uh, you know,
6:02historically back before there was sort
6:04of unified global release, One Piece
6:06would release its anniversary sets close
6:08to the holidays. You know, they also
6:10released PRBO1 close to the holiday,
6:12right? So, this has historically been a
6:14time where they have released absolutely
6:15banger sets and people have gone crazy.
6:17However, because of the global release
6:19and because of the timing of the
6:20anniversary sets, it's really hard to
6:22use any of that as precedent to know
6:24what's going to happen going forward.
6:26We're going to talk about what's coming
6:27at the end of the year as another
6:28potential catalyst. But I think thinking
6:30about the holiday season as its own
6:32potential catalyst is something to keep
6:34in mind for a few reasons. Number one, I
6:36think they're going to be some cards
6:37that do particularly well during this
6:39season, the Santa Chopper, like people
6:41are going to remember it. They're going
6:42to think about it. They're going to want
6:43it. Prices are going to go up, right?
6:45Are those prices going to be
6:46sustainable? Probably not. Um, you know,
6:48does Bandai release like some type of
6:50sick gift collection like they did in
6:512023? uh you know there are lots of
6:54opportunities to use the holidays for
6:56hype. You know I also think there's sort
6:58of this general economic question of are
6:59people taking money out of the market so
7:02that they can buy Christmas gifts and
7:04buy holiday gifts for other people uh or
7:07are people giving one piece as gifts to
7:09other people which in turn injects more
7:11money into the market. I think between
7:12those two things it's more likely that
7:14the market sees money coming out uh as
7:17people are spending on other
7:19requirements whether it's gifts or
7:20whether it's travel. Um, so I am not
7:23anticipating this to pull us out of the
7:25current correction that we're in, but
7:27there is always that possibility that
7:28One Piece does something incredibly hype
7:29that will help to generate more buzz
7:31going into the holiday season. So the
7:32next potential catalyst I want to talk
7:34about obviously are the sets that we're
7:35getting at the end of the year. So those
7:36are EVO5 and OP8. Now, we talked about
7:39how historically they released the
7:41anniversary sets at the end of the year
7:42and that led to a lot of hype.
7:44Obviously, they're not doing that here
7:45because they've already released OP17,
7:48but it does seem to me like they
7:50deliberately put two sets that they know
7:51are going to be pretty hyped in eB5 and
7:54OP8 at the end of the year. So, I don't
7:56know if they're like trying to meet end
7:58of year sales targets or if there's some
7:59other motivation or if it's a
8:01coincidence, but like it sure does seem
8:03like they really want people to be
8:05buying One Piece product around the end
8:08of the year. It's hard to predict how
8:09ebo 5 and OP8 are going to do, but I
8:12will say based on what we've seen so
8:14far, they both seem to be like
8:15significantly above average sets. You
8:17know, obviously we know EBO3 did pretty
8:19well. Those SPS are expensive. You know,
8:22one of the not so bright spots of EBO3
8:25is that there was only one leader,
8:26right? So, even though I like the VB
8:28leader, it's like incredibly common. You
8:30know, here it sounds like they're doing
8:31cool altart leaders, they're also going
8:32to do SP. So, if they're just like
8:34loading this set up with stuff, like it
8:36could be incredibly hype. You know,
8:37OP18, we have the Robin manga that
8:40everyone has been waiting for. Uh, you
8:43know, I know some people absolutely love
8:44this manga. Like, there's other front
8:46art that I would have liked better,
8:48frankly, uh, than this one, but
8:49certainly, I think this is going to hype
8:50the set. So, I would say that at a
8:52minimum, based on what we know right
8:53now, OP8 looks really good and could be
8:56amazing. So, you know, part of the
8:59challenge here is that like everything
9:01has been so hype for so long that like
9:04people haven't been able to catch their
9:05breath at all and there's like a lot of
9:07fatigue. So, I do think that there's a
9:09possibility that like even though people
9:11felt hyped about OP7 that like that
9:14fatigue finally caught up to them and
9:16they're like, I need to take a little
9:17bit of a break, but then they might be
9:19geared up again for the holiday season.
9:20So, I think that like there's a decent
9:23chance that there is a catalyst at the
9:24end of the year that pulls us up. Um,
9:26but I think more likely than pulling up
9:29the entire market, I think it likely
9:31just takes the money that people are
9:33spending it and concentrates it on these
9:35newer sets. You know, the question of
9:36whether one of these catalysts is going
9:38to like fundamentally move the entire
9:40market. So far, we have seen the market
9:43broadly move as one as opposed to like
9:46distinct sectors. Um, but I do think
9:49that as time goes on, that's going to
9:50change and I have a very specific reason
9:52for that that we'll talk about next. So
9:54in terms of whether any of these
9:55catalysts are going to pull the entire
9:56market for One Piece up and take us
9:58another leg up where prices across the
10:00board are, you know, rocketing like they
10:03have over the last year. I don't see
10:05that coming in the near future. And so
10:07in order to understand the main reason
10:08why I don't see that coming, I need to
10:09talk about a little bit of history of
10:11credit cards. So if you think about
10:12families before they had credit cards,
10:14let's say they have $1,000 to spend on
10:16consumables. Then they get a credit card
10:18and suddenly they have $1,500 that they
10:21can spend on consumables, right? So now
10:23they have 50% more money that they can
10:25put into the market. So if everybody
10:27does that, there's suddenly way more
10:29demand. Prices go up. You know, the
10:31economy looks really, really good. But
10:33actually what they've done is they've
10:34borrowed from their future self, right?
10:37So like that can't really sustain
10:39because now they have debt that they
10:41have to pay off. So I think it's
10:43important to understand that when we
10:44have like a massive shock where demand
10:46goes up, like we can't necessarily
10:49expect that to continue happening. And I
10:51think probably the number one motivator
10:54for why One Piece prices have gone up so
10:56much over the last year has to do with
10:59vendors. I do think that the game has
11:01grown. I think that people have become
11:02more excited. I think people have change
11:05their anchoring point for what these
11:06cards should cost. I know I certainly
11:08have. But like credit cards being sort
11:11of like a one-time boost that you know
11:13the economy can get. Like vendors have
11:16been a one-time boost to the one piece
11:18market. So just think about it from
11:20simple supply and demand perspective,
11:22right? What percentage of cards are in
11:24the hands of collectors? Well, before
11:26vendors got into the game, before
11:27everybody was selling one piece, that
11:29was like 100%. Right? But now you had
11:32all these people who wanted to be able
11:33to sell the cards and so they needed to
11:35pry them away from the collectors. So in
11:37order to do that, they needed to pay
11:38more money. And like I was just a
11:40collecticon and like most of the tables
11:42there at least had some one piece and
11:44there were plenty of tables that had six
11:46figures or even possibly seven figures
11:48in one piece cards. Like that was new
11:51money that came in in a relatively short
11:54period of time that drove prices up. But
11:56now we've reached a level of
11:58equilibrium, right? Like most of the
12:00people who are going to vend
12:02purchased their cards. And it's not to
12:04say that they're going to stop
12:05purchasing cards, but like are they
12:07going to be massively expanding their
12:08inventory or are they going to be
12:10selling some things and then replacing
12:12their inventory, right? So, in my mind,
12:14like One Piece legitimately becoming a
12:17game that people are going to collect
12:18and therefore vendors want to have in
12:20their inventory was like a one-time
12:23boost to the market for the game. A
12:26massive spike in demand. So, that's part
12:28of the reason why I think the demand was
12:29legitimate, right? and we've reached
12:30like a certain equilibrium and we're not
12:32going to crash back down. But I think if
12:34your expectation is that like this is
12:37going to keep happening over and over
12:38again, like there has to be a catalyst
12:40for why that much new demand can come
12:42into the market. And while it's
12:44certainly true that like the game's
12:45going to keep growing and people are
12:46going to keep coming to it and people
12:47may, you know, divert money away from
12:49Pokemon or some other game to go to One
12:50Piece, the reality is like that's all
12:53relatively small potatoes compared to
12:55like the thousands of people that were
12:57trying to add, you know, four, five,
13:00six, seven figure inventories to be able
13:03to sell for this. I also think this is
13:05healthy, right? I think these spikes,
13:07you know, are not a good way for the
13:09game to survive. they disincentivize new
13:11people from coming in. You know, I do
13:13think over the next 6 months, a year,
13:16you know, if the game starts to increase
13:18more slowly and and much more
13:21consistently like in a healthy way, um
13:23that could push some of the people who
13:25were in this like for short-term profit
13:28out, right? So, I think we could see
13:30sealed prices fall and make the game
13:32more accessible. I think we could see
13:34prices, you know, slowly fall across the
13:36board as some of those people get bored
13:37and move on to something else, which is
13:39like what we've seen with the blue
13:40bottom booster boxes, right? Like, do I
13:42think that blue bottom booster boxes are
13:44fundamentally less desirable now because
13:46they've lost $1,500 in value? No. I
13:48think the people who put their money in
13:50it were just tired of not seeing their
13:52money go up, so they decided to put it
13:53somewhere else. Right? So, again, I
13:55don't think any of this is unhealthy,
13:57but I do think there's a possibility
13:58that we see the market trade sideways
14:00for quite a while. that like the new
14:02people who are coming into the market is
14:04offset by the short-term people who are
14:06leaving because it's not as exciting as
14:08it once was. So ultimately, I think all
14:10of that is good for the long-term
14:11success of the game, but I think if
14:13you're here hoping that I'm going to
14:14tell you that like we're going to go
14:15through another boom in 3 months, I
14:17don't see the catalyst for it. Could it
14:19happen? Absolutely. But I don't think
14:21that it's the most likely scenario. So,
14:23next up, 21 PSV asks, "I'd love to hear
14:25your viewpoint and prediction on the
14:26recently released third anniversary set,
14:28which is Ace, Sabo, and Luffy." So, this
14:32is the English third anniversary set.
14:34So, I think this set is sick. I love
14:36these anniversary sets. Honestly,
14:39[laughter] if I was only going to
14:40collect one thing in one piece, like
14:41there's a decent chance it might be
14:42these anniversary sets. All that said, I
14:44think this is the third best of the
14:46anniversary sets. I think if you look at
14:48print runs, you know, the first one
14:50obviously is the lowest and I strongly
14:51suspect that the second one will be
14:53lower than this one. So, right now, this
14:55one is selling for $850
14:57and the second anniversary set is
15:00currently selling for $1,500. So, in my
15:02mind, $1,500 is like a pretty clear
15:05price ceiling, right? The third one
15:06shouldn't cost more than the second one.
15:08So, the question is, how much less
15:09should it cost? So rather than giving a
15:11specific number, I'm going to give a
15:13range where I feel like if this goes up
15:15to $1,200, that's going to feel really
15:18expensive to me, right? I think this
15:19should be significantly cheaper than the
15:20second anniversary set, you know, given
15:22that it's newer, given it likely has a
15:24higher population, given that I think
15:25it's slightly less desirable overall.
15:28But on the other hand, I feel like, you
15:29know, at $750 at half the price of the
15:32second anniversary set, that feels like
15:34a bottom to me, right? So, at $850,
15:37you know, I think that this is like
15:39pretty close to being a really really
15:41strong value. I maybe a year from now
15:44see it as being like a $1,000 uh
15:47product, but I just see it sort of
15:49keeping pace with the first and second
15:51anniversary sets, but just at a lower
15:53level. So, at $850, I do like it. If I
15:56didn't already have one, I would be
15:57seriously considering picking one up at
15:58this price, I think. So, next, Aussie
16:00Blastoise 2.0 know says, "Look at the
16:02OPO5 auction about to finish in 16
16:04hours, currently at $960, and let me
16:07know what grabs your attention about
16:08it." So, naturally, this was a very
16:10intriguing comment, so I immediately had
16:12to go to eBay, and I'll give you a
16:14second to take a look at what grabs you
16:17about this particular listing.
16:20Okay, well, I kind of spoiled it because
16:22I included it in the title, but like
16:24this box, in my opinion, is so obviously
16:27fake. This is a really unfortunate side
16:30effect of the hobby that we need to be
16:32prepared for. So, I wanted to just
16:34quickly go through like ways that you
16:36can tell that this box is fake in case
16:38you encounter this in your own life. The
16:40design of the box is completely
16:42different, but also just like look how
16:43much sharper and how much tighter the
16:46actual version looks. Both in terms of
16:47like design and aesthetic and also
16:49physically the plastic looks tighter,
16:51right? It just looks like a higher
16:53quality product. Another thing I'll
16:55point out is that it doesn't say Bandai
16:56anywhere, right? So, one of the tricks
16:58that these folks will try to do is they
17:00will create something that looks really
17:01similar, but to get themselves out of
17:03the hot water of it being a counterfeit
17:05product, they won't actually say that
17:08it's produced by the original person who
17:09makes it, right? So, if you ever see
17:11something and you don't see Bandai
17:12stamped prominently on it in several
17:14places, there's a pretty good chance
17:15that it's fake. Uh, you know, the bottom
17:17of the box on regular boxes should be
17:20clean. Um, you know, the sides of the
17:21boxes have tons of information about
17:23what's in the box, where it comes from,
17:25their different distributors in
17:27different continents and things. And
17:28then finally, I want to point out that
17:30if you scroll to the bottom of these
17:31listings, it literally says, "Note,
17:34English version cards for casual play
17:35and collection only, not an official
17:38Bandai tournament product, perfect for
17:40One Piece fans." And so, like, if you're
17:42going to buy something online, buy from
17:44highquality sellers, buy from people
17:46with a lot of feedback, and always read
17:47till the end of the listing. Next up,
17:49Iro 6730 asks, "How well do we think the
17:52Watermelon Luffy will do long term?"
17:54Okay, so I don't know the answer to this
17:56question, right? It's not a Bandai card.
17:58I have no sense of what the print run
17:59is. But the reason that I brought this
18:01up here is because I want to talk about
18:03Japanese promos in general. Japanese
18:06promos tend to get much larger print
18:08runs than the English versions. So like
18:11I bought this base set leader set, um,
18:14which I still think is absolutely sick.
18:16I paid like I think 120 bucks for the
18:18set and then it got a massive reprint
18:20and now you can buy them for around you
18:22know $60 which like I think that's a
18:25ridiculous deal for these cards. They're
18:27so fun. But like there was no way for me
18:29to know that there was going to be a
18:30reprint. There could be another reprint
18:31after this one, right? So I think if
18:33you're coming from the United States
18:35like Japanese promos can be a little bit
18:38of a black box in terms of like how rare
18:40they actually are and that makes them
18:42very very difficult to price. And so I
18:44think when it comes to this Luffy, like
18:46being in the United States, I have no
18:47sense of how common these actually are.
18:49I suspect they're quite common and we
18:52don't have any sort of guard rails on
18:54whether these are going to be reprinted,
18:55how long they're going to be reprinted.
18:57All of that is to say, I absolutely love
18:59Japanese promos. I think people should
19:00collect them. But I also think that you
19:02should understand that we are operating,
19:04if you're coming from the United States,
19:05with a very limited information, and
19:07that increases the risk fundamentally
19:09compared to other products that we know
19:10more about. So next, I wanted to do a
19:12quick check on an OP7. I've gotten a lot
19:14of questions about whether or not it's a
19:15good time to buy some of these cards.
19:17And so I wanted to revisit where I
19:18thought the prices were going to be,
19:20where they currently are, and what I
19:21think that says about what's a good
19:22value uh and what we should still wait
19:24on. So looking quickly at the mangas,
19:26you know, I think the New Gate, I
19:28overestimated demand for the New Gate.
19:30So while 1165 is well below my
19:32prediction, I wouldn't be surprised if
19:34it continues to fall based on the level
19:35of demand that we've seen so far. you
19:37know, the Shanks. I think I
19:38underestimated demand for the Shanks
19:40because I just wasn't thinking about how
19:41ridiculously good this card is, both
19:43right now, but also like because it's
19:45not going to rotate out. Like, this is
19:47forever going to be an incredible card
19:48anytime a green deck is relevant, unless
19:50Bandai just continues to like massively
19:52power creep, which they might. At
19:54$1,485,
19:56like, this is above what I thought the
19:57target was going to be. But I think
19:59recognizing how many people are going to
20:00want these for these decks, while I
20:02don't think this is like a screaming buy
20:03at this price, I do think this card has
20:05potential mostly because of just how
20:06playable it is. The Kaido, I think
20:08similar boat to the New Gate. You know,
20:11when we did this analysis, we looked at
20:12the price of the OP16 mangas, which I
20:14thought were actually the best comps for
20:15these. Those have continued to fall even
20:18further. Um, which I think cautions me a
20:21little bit about these mangas. So, I
20:22think I'm actually going to lower my
20:24target on the Kaido, the New Gate, and
20:27the Big Mom below where they currently
20:29are. So, you know, I think at $990, like
20:32again, it's not a horrible price, but
20:33like, you know, could I see this falling
20:35to like $800? Yeah, absolutely I could.
20:38Uh, and then finally, The Big Mom. You
20:39know, I think this is going to be the
20:41cheapest. It's already below our target
20:43at $900, but I think seeing how soft the
20:45demand has been for these mangas, I'm
20:47going to lower this price target even
20:48further. I think if you look at like the
20:51floor for mangas, the silver Israeli
20:54from OP8, the Sabo from OPO4, in terms
20:58of mangas that have multiple in the same
21:00set, you know, you're really talking
21:01about the kid from OPO5, you know, so
21:04between like $600 and $800 is where
21:06these tend to fall. So, I'm going to
21:08lower a price target on this one, too. I
21:10think this is more like a $750 card
21:12given how soft the demand seems to be.
21:14So, even at this price, I still think
21:16it's likely to fall further. Hey, so
21:18future me here. Uh, so it turns out that
21:21the deck that won the Flame Flame Fruit
21:24uh, Coliseum was running four Lynlands.
21:26So that's probably going to push up the
21:28price in the short term. But when we're
21:29thinking about long-term, I'm standing
21:30by my conviction that this is going to
21:32be one of the cheapest of the mangas.
21:33Moving on to the Throne SPS. So I think
21:37these are interesting. I got a lot of
21:38hate in this video about the price of
21:39this Luffy saying it was only going to
21:41be $750.
21:42Uh, people thought that was crazy. I
21:44will say we have gotten some new
21:45information which is that unlike OP9 and
21:48OP13 uh these seem to have the same pole
21:50rates as the other set of SPS. So there
21:54are fewer of these than I anticipated
21:56when I made these prices. So I am
21:58actually going to like slightly increase
22:00the value of the Luffy. So I'm going to
22:02set a price target of between like $800
22:04$850. So what I would say there is I
22:07think $8.25 is fair. But I'm also not
22:10convinced given how much demand has been
22:12softer for all of these cards than I
22:14initially expected if it continues to go
22:16down a little bit. You know, the Shanks,
22:18I think we've seen softer demand for SPS
22:19across the board in general. So, at $270
22:23compared to the $300 price target, I
22:25think it's fair. I also think it might
22:26fall a little bit further. 225 to 250
22:29range like strikes me as plausible for
22:31this. The Blackbeard, uh, again, I think
22:34this one is much closer to its bottom. I
22:37could see this being like a $175 to $200
22:40card, but in truth like Blackbeard cards
22:43and Shanks cards are like normally
22:45fairly comparable given that it doesn't
22:48have like a massive boost from
22:49playability. Like I don't think that the
22:51Shanks should be this much more
22:52expensive than the Teach. So I
22:54personally think the Teach is probably a
22:55better value right now than the Shanks.
22:57If I was going to pick up one of these
22:58four, that's probably the one that I
23:00would pick up. Uh just because it feels
23:02closest to the bottom for me. I actually
23:04think the Buggy one is really, really
23:05cool. But it's clear that Buggy does not
23:07have the same level of demand. And so at
23:09$195, like I would rather have the
23:11Teach, I think this one probably settles
23:13in like the 150 to 175 range. So, you
23:16know, I think likely these will fall a
23:18little bit further. If you are worried
23:21that they're going to go up and that
23:22you're going to get priced out, like I
23:24think it's an okay time to buy, but you
23:26just have to understand the decision
23:27you're making based on your risk
23:28tolerance. Probably the OP7 result I am
23:31most surprised by and most made me want
23:33to talk about this are the hockey SPS.
23:35Um, so the hockey SPS I think are
23:38absolutely incredible. Like I think if
23:40you've held one in your hand, like it's
23:42hard to deny that these are like some of
23:44the best quality cards that Bandai's
23:46ever printed just in terms of like print
23:48quality and how much they sparkle. And
23:50yet like the prices are far below where
23:54I thought they were going to be. I think
23:55in particular the Zoro here being $470
23:59shocks me. Now, I will say that like as
24:02a result of the Throne SPS having a
24:06slightly smaller population than I
24:08anticipated, that means that these have
24:10a slightly larger population than I
24:12anticipated. So, I probably would have
24:15reduced these prices a little bit. But,
24:17I still think that this feels, you know,
24:19really cheap at $470.
24:21I do think though that there's an
24:22important caveat here, which is that if
24:24we look at what has happened with OP16,
24:28when OP16 came out, people were really,
24:30really hesitant to buy it, right? So
24:32prices went pretty low pretty early. The
24:35Robin was down to like, you know, $475
24:39at one point and then it sort of
24:42stabilized in like the $650 range and
24:44then it dipped a little bit down from
24:47there. And like what we've seen from
24:48OP16 is that like prices were kind of
24:51low in the beginning, then they went up
24:53for several months, and then they slowly
24:56started to fall back down below the lows
24:58that they had previously had upon
25:00release. So, I'm keeping that in mind as
25:04a possible course of action for what
25:05might happen for OP7. Now, at the same
25:07time, are we talking about like a crazy
25:09difference in price? I don't think so.
25:11you know, like I thought the relative
25:13bottom for the Ace SP and OP16 was going
25:16to be like, you know, I think I bought
25:18mine for like $210 or something like
25:20that. You know, subsequently, you've
25:21been able to buy it for like $150. So, I
25:24think whether or not you want to buy
25:25these right now is entirely based on
25:28your risk tolerance recognizing what's
25:29happened with OP16. That said, I think
25:32$470 for this Zoro is too low. I think
25:34like 3 years from now, this is going to
25:36be like at least like a top 10, top 20
25:39SP. Um, so I think we will look back on
25:42this and say, I can't believe how cheap
25:43that was. You know, same thing with the
25:45Garp and with the I recognize that these
25:48are not like the most popular
25:49characters, but I do think the floor
25:51just for this art style should be quite
25:53high. You know, this is like $35 more
25:56than like OP12 SP, which is like not a
26:01popular style at all. You know, the
26:03Yamato is a little bit harder to price
26:05um given how much softer demand has been
26:08in general. seeing this one closer to my
26:10price target um suggests to me that like
26:12maybe this one has further to fall. You
26:15know, I'll be honest, I have been
26:16picking these up. I bought the Yamato
26:18for 250 uh because to me at that price I
26:21think the odds are more than 50% that it
26:23goes up from there and ultimately like I
26:25really like the card so I felt good at
26:27it there. Uh you know, I bought the Rail
26:29and the Garp for $110 from a local
26:31player. Uh, I could have gotten them a
26:32little bit cheaper, but I like
26:33supporting local players. And it's also
26:35nice to have it in hand as opposed to
26:36just buying it off TCG Player and not
26:38knowing what you're going to get, right?
26:39You know, the Zoro I bought for 450
26:41again from a local player. There was at
26:43one point where I could have picked one
26:44up for like 375. I was tempted to buy
26:47another one, frankly, just because of
26:48how ridiculous of a value I thought that
26:50was, but then I remembered someone who
26:52made a video who said you shouldn't just
26:53buy things uh that you don't actually
26:55need or want because they're a good
26:57value. And I decided to take that
26:58person's advice, so I didn't. The Odin.
27:01I think the Odin is, you know, being
27:03kept up by the fact that it's a really
27:05playable card right now. This is a card
27:06that I absolutely would wait until it
27:08leaves the meta and then I see it being
27:10much closer to the RA and the Garp
27:12territory. I'm probably going to wait
27:13until this is around like $125 before I
27:16consider picking it up. And then
27:17finally, the Roger uh is also a little
27:20bit tough for me to figure out. Like
27:21it's so much more expensive than the
27:23Garp and the Raleley, but I'm not sure
27:25how well that's going to hold, right?
27:26Like this kind of reminds me of like the
27:28Tshigi SP from OP16 where like it kind
27:32of held at like $125 for quite a while
27:34which was more expensive than like the
27:36other lower tier SPs but like slowly
27:38over time it's just eroded value and is
27:41down to like $78 which is what I bought
27:43mine for at Collecton. Um I'm trying to
27:45finish all the OP16 SPS and I am almost
27:48there now. Um so all that is to say I do
27:51think that the price on the Roger is
27:53going to continue to go down. I will
27:54probably buy at around $150, $160, I
27:58think, is what I'm targeting. And then
27:59finally, we got to talk about the Luffy
28:01Leader and the Baky Kaido. Um, I don't
28:03have enough information, frankly, about
28:05the Crew Alt to really tell you whether
28:07or not. I think they're fairly priced at
28:09this point. But the Luffy Leader, you
28:11know, we anticipated that this was going
28:12to be around $1,500. It's currently at
28:14$1,650.
28:16I do think there's a decent chance that
28:17this continues to fall. Um, but it's
28:20also like close enough to our price
28:21target that if you're like absolutely
28:24have to have this and are going to be
28:25devastated if it goes out of your price
28:27range, like I don't think it's a
28:28psychotic price. But I'm definitely
28:30lowering my price target on this to
28:31like, you know, $1,300. And then
28:34finally, we have the Baky Kaido, which I
28:35thought was going to be worth around
28:37$400 if its pull rate was around 1 and4.
28:40I haven't done the analysis myself, but
28:42what I've seen online is that people are
28:43speculating that this has about the same
28:46rarity as like a treasure rare or an
28:47event manga. What I know from doing the
28:49research myself is that the event mangas
28:51and the treasure rares are just regular
28:53alt arts. And so like their frequency is
28:55a result of how many alt arts are in the
28:57set. So if this Kaido is essentially a
29:00regular alt art in terms of its pull
29:02rates, like I think this is going to be
29:04much less expensive. Um I do think the
29:06art is fantastic. I think that if this
29:08was an SP, like I think where it's at
29:10around $240 would be a super fair price.
29:13But given that it's an altar, I think we
29:15should be comparing these to the event
29:17mangas in terms of how expensive they're
29:19likely to be. I would not be paying
29:20significantly more than $100 for this
29:22card. So, that's all I have today. As
29:24always, I hope you found this helpful.
29:26You know, if you did, please give us a
29:28like. If you have any thoughts, tell me
29:29where I'm right. Tell me where I'm
29:30wrong. Hit us up in the comments. I
29:32always love chatting with you there. You
29:33know, if you're interested in picking up
29:34any cards, we have our TCG Player
29:35affiliate link as well as our eBay
29:37storefront. You know, we get a small
29:38commission if you buy something, so of
29:40course, no pressure, but it does help
29:41out the channel. So with that, as
29:43always, I appreciate your time and I
29:45will see you in the next

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