THE TRADING DAY BEFORE FOMC — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:01hello everybody I hope they are good
2. 0:03we're gonna talk about the weeks okay
3. 0:04because yesterday you watched
4. 0:06yesterday's video we marked these two
5. 0:08weeks we have this week a 28 250 and
6. 0:12then from last week we still have this
7. 0:14target of 27 235 and 27 550 with the
8. 0:20fifty percent of this week okay you can
9. 0:22see the price almost went to this week
10. 0:24but I didn't fill it why because we had
11. 0:27a daily 50ma there check this out
12. 0:30okay check the accuracy
13. 0:32that's exactly if we you know
14. 0:36make a line 27 666 exactly the 50 EMA
15. 0:42you can check in the top left of the
16. 0:44screen twenty seven thousand six hundred
17. 0:47eighty two is the daily 50ma so in in
18. 0:51essence that was the target okay now if
19. 0:53we go again to the one hour time frame
20. 0:55we're gonna go through yesterday's price
21. 0:57action and then I think that we're
22. 0:59probably gonna come to the conclusion
23. 1:01them they might leave this week for
24. 1:03tomorrow okay because tomorrow Wednesday
25. 1:05we have the fomc meeting there is gonna
26. 1:09be a lot of volatility you're gonna see
27. 1:10spikes up and down okay so it's very
28. 1:13likely that you see something crazy like
29. 1:15for example this okay you might see
30. 1:17literally something like this tomorrow
31. 1:19is gonna be very hectic so you have to
32. 1:22keep in mind that if you trade tomorrow
33. 1:25don't trade until probably I would say
34. 1:28after the press conference okay so I
35. 1:31usually when there is fomc I don't like
36. 1:34to trade 30 minutes before the fomc
37. 1:37meeting before the data comes out and 45
38. 1:41minutes after the press conference okay
39. 1:44so that's my that's that's my suggestion
40. 1:48that's what I usually do but of course
41. 1:49no Financial advice you guys can do what
42. 1:51you want you can gamble if you want but
43. 1:53I'm not willing to risk my money okay
44. 1:56now let's go through yesterday's price
45. 1:58action because we have this week okay
46. 1:59and we were talking that if we so you
47. 2:03know
48. 2:03this week getting filled or even a sweep
49. 2:05of the lows so for example we saw here
50. 2:08and price didn't leave an imbalance then
51. 2:10I would enter up a long position and I
52. 2:13did them because if you go to the 15
53. 2:14minutes time frame
54. 2:16I was talking with the guys in telegram
55. 2:17about this you can see that I left this
56. 2:20long week okay so I didn't enter in this
57. 2:22bounce because I was thinking the price
58. 2:24was gonna come back to the zone and you
59. 2:26can see that I did then we have the same
60. 2:27thing going on here another long week
61. 2:30okay in this one
62. 2:33we were expecting the same that price
63. 2:34comes back down to the week so unto here
64. 2:37there is no moment to enter along then
65. 2:39in this Zone okay I like this better
66. 2:41because you can see that doesn't live a
67. 2:43week behind and view to the one or time
68. 2:45frame you can see that this is a bullish
69. 2:47engulfing candle and I entered a
70. 2:50934. so that was around here when I
71. 2:53entered okay so right now I'm in a long
72. 2:55position you know with very tighter stop
73. 2:58loss I don't have big confidence of this
74. 3:01in this trade okay but that was the idea
75. 3:04now what I'm expecting to see today is
76. 3:08if you notice in this Zone we'll have a
77. 3:10resistance okay we've got rejected so
78. 3:12many times so what I would like to say
79. 3:14is something like this okay
80. 3:18if you do something like this then I'm
81. 3:19gonna Target the 50 EMA in the one hour
82. 3:22time frame that right now it's a 28
83. 3:25435. so that's what I'm looking at today
84. 3:27if I say something like this and then
85. 3:30navigation then at this moment I'm gonna
86. 3:31close my lung why should I wait for it
87. 3:34to hit my my entry point again no point
88. 3:36because if I see something like this is
89. 3:38going to come back to the range and
90. 3:40probably it's going to form a range like
91. 3:41this okay until tomorrow so that's what
92. 3:44I'm waiting for yesterday we had a
93. 3:46massive drop I think it was like a four
94. 3:47or five percent it was quite vile let me
95. 3:50check so this was around here
96. 3:54that's a five percent drop so at least
97. 3:57today I would like to see some kind of a
98. 3:58bounce maybe to test the 1 hour 50ma
99. 4:01but again if I don't see that
100. 4:03and I see something like this
101. 4:05then on this moment
102. 4:07I'm gonna get off my long okay I'm gonna
103. 4:09Target this Zone maybe some range and
104. 4:12tomorrow we're gonna see maybe some
105. 4:14crazy volatility and maybe they can fill
106. 4:16the 50 of the week at least okay so
107. 4:18that's what I have in mind at the moment
108. 4:20let's have a quick look at the dollar
109. 4:22Index let's see how it's doing
110. 4:24daily time frame
111. 4:26okay it hasn't lost its lows yet so I
112. 4:30would say that for now the bulletin
113. 4:32makes it safe okay uh remember that we
114. 4:35were talking that this might be forming
115. 4:37a WB pattern okay you can see something
116. 4:41like this may be playing out or this
117. 4:42could be you know push low retrace
118. 4:46continuation so that's the question
119. 4:48right now
120. 4:52before continuation because you know
121. 4:55that Bitcoin trades against the dollar
122. 4:57so if the dollar happens to be forming a
123. 5:00WB pattern and we are now seeing this
124. 5:02leg up then when the dollar Index goes
125. 5:05up Bitcoin goes down okay and this is
126. 5:08crap big distance to me honest this is a
127. 5:11round let me check
128. 5:13almost four percent so that would be
129. 5:16well without the almost because it would
130. 5:18have to go above this this high so it
131. 5:21will be at least five percent I would
132. 5:23say
133. 5:24and that would mean a big drop for
134. 5:26Bitcoin okay skip this in mind let's see
135. 5:28what the audience is doing in my opinion
136. 5:31as long as the dollar Index doesn't lose
137. 5:34this low then I'm gonna be favoring a WB
138. 5:37pattern now if we see the dollar Index
139. 5:39is starting to lose this low of course
140. 5:41yes we're gonna spec lower prices
141. 5:42probably 96. I would say 90 between 96
142. 5:45and 95 would be uh a normal Direction
143. 5:50you're gonna be able to see very clearly
144. 5:52here the inverse correlation between the
145. 5:54Dual index and Bitcoin okay so if you
146. 5:57check the level the orange line is
147. 5:59Bitcoin and what we have in the chart is
148. 6:02standard index okay so you can see
149. 6:04through that index makes a top okay
150. 6:06that's the 8th of March and you can see
151. 6:09the Bitcoin the 10th of March you know
152. 6:11makes a bottom and that's when we start
153. 6:14to see this crazy rune for Bitcoin from
154. 6:1720K all the way to 30k at the same time
155. 6:22that dollar Index went from 105
156. 6:26to a hundred okay so you can see the
157. 6:29correlation there now the drawing is it
158. 6:31seems like it might be formula W
159. 6:33formation is found for now a bottom okay
160. 6:36and you can see the Bitcoin is starting
161. 6:38to retrace okay so if we continue to see
162. 6:41that index going high
163. 6:43then Bitcoin is going to go low okay so
164. 6:46that's what you have to pay attention to
165. 6:48however if we see the opposite and we
166. 6:50see the dollar Index continue falling
167. 6:51then Bitcoin is going to have another
168. 6:53Rune up okay
169. 6:55this is what in my opinion it's very
170. 6:57important to always keep an eye on the
171. 6:58dollar Index because sometimes it can
172. 7:01help you to anticipate the next move for
173. 7:03Bitcoin this is the best example in my
174. 7:05opinion you can see very clearly that
175. 7:07the total index is forming a clear top
176. 7:09here you can see the the Scandal the
177. 7:12dodgy candle and then a very single
178. 7:14thing candle that happens the eighth
179. 7:17what the 9th of March and Bitcoin starts
180. 7:21to go up the 10th of March so here you
181. 7:23would know that the next day the most
182. 7:25likely thing is that the dollar Index
183. 7:26goes down and Bitcoin goes up let's have
184. 7:29a look at the SMP because the SMP is
185. 7:31doing some interesting Moves In This
186. 7:33Zone okay so let's go there
187. 7:36here
188. 7:38okay let's go to the smaller time frame
189. 7:41but lower time frame okay so you can see
190. 7:44that we had but we were in this range
191. 7:47for
192. 7:49quite some time 24 days that's more than
193. 7:51three weeks okay and now finally
194. 7:55seems that it has breaking out of this
195. 7:57of this range the question now is are
196. 8:00you gonna see something similar to what
197. 8:02we saw between the 13th of April and the
198. 8:0620th of April okay that was a deviation
199. 8:08or what we saw in the 25th on 27th of
200. 8:11April another deviation because what the
201. 8:15SMP has to do here is you know retest
202. 8:17this Zone
203. 8:19and then go higher and then we would
204. 8:22Target 4200 okay
205. 8:25because that's around the number it's a
206. 8:27psychological number it's a
207. 8:28psychological song where we could see
208. 8:29rejections okay and some kind of
209. 8:32sideways move in this zone so that's
210. 8:34what I'm keeping a look now because if
211. 8:37we see this in P coming lower and it
212. 8:40fails to test this one as uh support
213. 8:42then we're gonna go back in this range
214. 8:44is that clear
215. 8:46now this gwick is going to be wild for
216. 8:49the SMP don't get me wrong because we
217. 8:50have tomorrow on Wednesday the pharmacy
218. 8:52meeting on Thursday we have Apple's
219. 8:55earnings around on Friday we have the
220. 8:58non-farm payrolls okay so it's gonna be
221. 9:01a very volatile week for the SMP so if
222. 9:04he can hold this Zone that's great
223. 9:05because we're gonna be aiming we're
224. 9:07going to be targeting 4200 but if it
225. 9:10loses this Zone and goes back into the
226. 9:13range then Bitcoin might have an excuse
227. 9:15to continue going down okay so that's
228. 9:17the important thing about the SMP and
229. 9:19Bitcoin that correlation that they seem
230. 9:21to have the fomc meeting tomorrow so
231. 9:24Navi a very interesting one because 25
232. 9:2725 basis points is priced in you know 85
233. 9:32percent of the market is expecting 25
234. 9:34basis points so that's price thing
235. 9:37that's not a problem
236. 9:38I think they think that's going to be
237. 9:39volatile tomorrow is going to be the
238. 9:40press conference let's see what Jerome
239. 9:42Powell has to say
240. 9:43but seeing that the Futures markets
241. 9:46they are pricing three 25 basis points
242. 9:51cuts
243. 9:52this year so basically three rate cuts
244. 9:55of 25 basis points
245. 9:57I think that the most likely thing is
246. 9:59that you don't power comes tomorrow and
247. 10:00says in the press conference
248. 10:03again that there is not gonna be right
249. 10:06Goods this year so let's see how the SMP
250. 10:09takes that okay that's that's what I'm
251. 10:12anticipating for tomorrow's press
252. 10:14conference
253. 10:16it's not gonna be a surprise 25
254. 10:19basis points highs nobody's gonna be
255. 10:21surprised the market is not gonna be
256. 10:23surprised about that that would be
257. 10:24surprised about their press conference
258. 10:26you do high block capital in the three
259. 10:29months time frame
260. 10:30so we have a bigger the bigger picture
261. 10:33of where the liquidity is in higher time
262. 10:35frame you can see there is liquidity
263. 10:37pure emotes in both sides okay we have
264. 10:40liquid to the round so we have loads
265. 10:42at 22 400 and 600 also a 25 400 and 600
266. 10:49this is uh mayor this was a major
267. 10:52resistance in the past
268. 10:54that it hasn't been tested a support yet
269. 10:57so that's an interesting Zone obviously
270. 10:59if we lose 27 000
271. 11:02we're going to be aiming at 25 600 okay
272. 11:05that's the reality but there is also a
273. 11:07lot of liquidity to the website look at
274. 11:08this Thirty one thousand two hundred and
275. 11:11thirty three thousand four hundred so we
276. 11:13can't dismiss the possibility that
277. 11:16Bitcoin could be going higher
278. 11:18okay of course he also depends on the
279. 11:20dollar index in my opinion let's see how
280. 11:22the double bottom develops
281. 11:26now in the one month time frame we'll
282. 11:28have pretty much the same story lots of
283. 11:30liquidity at 26 400 but also to the
284. 11:33upside all the way to 33k there is loads
285. 11:37of liquidity especially between 31 300.
286. 11:40and thirty thousand three hundred
287. 11:43so that's basically between this Heist
288. 11:46that we had for some time how many days
289. 11:50that was for four days
290. 11:52and also the up right above the previous
291. 11:54size because always above previous highs
292. 11:57and Below previous lows there is quite
293. 12:00of liquidity
294. 12:01and in the 70s time frame
295. 12:04let's see what we've got here
296. 12:07I see quality liquidity to the upside at
297. 12:1030 300 okay that's why on the Sunday
298. 12:14update we're projecting first that maybe
299. 12:16they could take this Zone but they
300. 12:18didn't just went all the way low okay so
301. 12:21now we are very close to 27 000.
302. 12:24right below their wig maybe that could
303. 12:27be a sweep of the lows
304. 12:29or it just must be continuing going
305. 12:31lower because there is also quality
306. 12:32liquidity at 26 450. so you can see that
307. 12:36the liquidation hit the maps at the
308. 12:37moment it's not very clear
309. 12:39you know if let's check the six months
310. 12:42time frame because I don't think we've
311. 12:43checked this one
312. 12:45I mean
313. 12:46yes the liquidity the major liquidity is
314. 12:50to the downside 25 500 22 500 18
315. 12:56000 also a lot of liquidity and below
316. 13:00the previous lows because always below
317. 13:02the previous lows there is a lot of
318. 13:04liquidity and that's at 13 500. now I'm
319. 13:07gonna say we're gonna go here because we
320. 13:09are at twenty eight thousand at the
321. 13:12moment okay
322. 13:16and I don't know how the last quarter of
323. 13:20the year is gonna play out I posted the
324. 13:2331st of December that we were expecting
325. 13:25the first quarter of the year
326. 13:29a bear rally then a pivot
327. 13:32in the in the second quarter of the year
328. 13:35we just started the second quarter of
329. 13:37the Year let's see if the FED can pivot
330. 13:39but they're gonna probably say tomorrow
331. 13:42that we're not going to see any rate
332. 13:45Cuts this year and then if they do that
333. 13:48pivot in the second quarter of the year
334. 13:51I said that if that happens
335. 13:54you know looking at what happens
336. 13:55historically after the fat pivots we
337. 13:57could see
338. 13:59a refession and a big dump for the SMP
339. 14:02at the end of the year of course you
340. 14:05know it's difficult to tell because I
341. 14:06don't know what the fat is thinking I
342. 14:09don't know if you know they don't want
343. 14:11to Bluff tomorrow and said they're not
344. 14:12going to do Red Coach and then when I
345. 14:13end up doing them or they actually they
346. 14:16are not going to so let's see how that
347. 14:18develops but if we see you know the
348. 14:21second quarter of the year a pivot
349. 14:24I probably go with a narrative
350. 14:27that we're gonna have a baddest end of
351. 14:29the year
352. 14:30I don't know if you want to go all the
353. 14:32way to the lows it seems pretty far at
354. 14:35the moment where you know that was 15K
355. 14:37we're around almost 30k it's it's a long
356. 14:40distance so again guys level by level
357. 14:44if we lose 27k then 109 for 25.
358. 14:50400 ish what it was the previous
359. 14:53resistance and if we lose that of course
360. 14:56we're gonna look at these liquidations
361. 14:57at 22 500 and so on so guys thank you so
362. 15:03much for watching and I'll see you soon