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The Same Pace for Bull Recovery on Bitcoin, Altcoin Market, XRP and Crypto, Patience Till Expansion — Transcript

by Blockchain Backer · 4,852 words · 687 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:01[music]
  2. 0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
  3. 0:16the Blockchain Backer bringing you the
  4. 0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
  5. 0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
  6. 0:23at the Bitcoin price chart along with
  7. 0:25the total market cap of the
  8. 0:26cryptocurrency market. As for the last
  9. 0:28several weeks, the market has really
  10. 0:29just been kind of stuck here since the
  11. 0:31middle of September after breaking
  12. 0:33through the 50week moving average like
  13. 0:35we historically do when we've come off
  14. 0:37the bottom of a bare market and produced
  15. 0:39all of our bullish divergences and then
  16. 0:42confirm those bullish divergences. We've
  17. 0:44just kind of been stuck. That shouldn't
  18. 0:45be news to anybody. But as we're stuck,
  19. 0:48the major questions are, are we already
  20. 0:50ranging? Are we already stuck for the
  21. 0:52months ahead? Or do we still have to go
  22. 0:55a little bit higher to then go range for
  23. 0:58a longer period of time? Or do we just
  24. 1:00kind of range out here right now as we
  25. 1:03wait for something more macro oriented
  26. 1:05to cooperate and then push this market a
  27. 1:07little bit higher? And it's really the
  28. 1:09dilemma we're kind of stuck in right now
  29. 1:11on have we already started ranging or
  30. 1:13not. the big picture I try to
  31. 1:15continuously paint and before we ever
  32. 1:17had this pullback is to say conviction
  33. 1:19is going to matter on having the bigger
  34. 1:21picture perspective of this market and
  35. 1:23where we're at. We have certainly
  36. 1:25flashed every historical behavior of
  37. 1:28being beyond the bottom. Whether that is
  38. 1:30technicals, whether that is onchain,
  39. 1:32whether that is social dynamics of the
  40. 1:34market and also sentiment, we are
  41. 1:36certainly already mirroring all the
  42. 1:38things we've seen in the past that we're
  43. 1:40past the bottom. The difficult part is
  44. 1:42when we're trying to climb this wall of
  45. 1:44worry, all the various types of shapes
  46. 1:46we can take to climb up those walls of
  47. 1:48worry and where will those ranges build
  48. 1:50from? That's clearly been the messaging
  49. 1:53for the last several weeks at this
  50. 1:54point. And those answers still remain
  51. 1:56unknown, but this is really just kind of
  52. 1:59what we tend to do once we're able to
  53. 2:01get out of that 50week moving average.
  54. 2:04Just we're all left twiddling our
  55. 2:05thumbs. Is is it going to be here or is
  56. 2:08it going to be from here? Yesterday I
  57. 2:10was like, I'm going to give the market
  58. 2:11kind of a day to play out some price
  59. 2:12action to see if we can get something
  60. 2:14new to talk about to describe that
  61. 2:16differently, but we didn't get really
  62. 2:17anything. We got we got some green in
  63. 2:19the market yesterday, back to some red
  64. 2:21again today. We're really just ranging.
  65. 2:22But I figured, you know, we'll we'll
  66. 2:24paint the bigger picture again here to
  67. 2:26understand what is really happening in
  68. 2:28this market right now. We know that
  69. 2:29we're beyond the bottom. The onchain and
  70. 2:31the technicals have done everything
  71. 2:32we've historically seen. If it isn't the
  72. 2:35bottom, then it would be different from
  73. 2:36every bottom we've ever had. Don't be
  74. 2:38confused by that. The crowd will always
  75. 2:40think this time is different. I can't
  76. 2:42operate like that. I have to operate
  77. 2:44based on the data that I see. But after
  78. 2:46pushing off that floor, we can clearly
  79. 2:48see how like Bitcoin and the altcoin
  80. 2:50market moved hand in hand in here. Over
  81. 2:53here on the left, I've got the altcoin
  82. 2:54market. It's excluding Bitcoin and
  83. 2:56Ethereum. Over here on the right, I've
  84. 2:58got Bitcoin itself. And what we can see
  85. 3:01is this market moved right in unison
  86. 3:03here heading right back to the exact
  87. 3:05same levels of where we capitulated from
  88. 3:08back in January and February of earlier
  89. 3:10this year. There was no divergence
  90. 3:12between the two. We moved up together.
  91. 3:15That's actually exactly what we've done
  92. 3:16off the bottom of each bare market when
  93. 3:19we're proving that the bottom is in. But
  94. 3:21what we can see is that there's been no
  95. 3:23flashing of like an alt season. And an
  96. 3:25alt season is going to be where we
  97. 3:26actually see the Bitcoin dominance go
  98. 3:28down and we're actually experiencing a
  99. 3:31higher push on the altcoin market beyond
  100. 3:34what Bitcoin is doing. It would be an
  101. 3:36outperformance of the altcoin market
  102. 3:37versus Bitcoin and that would mean there
  103. 3:39would be a move down in the Bitcoin
  104. 3:41dominance as the altcoin market would be
  105. 3:43taking more share away from Bitcoin. But
  106. 3:46we could see that the Bitcoin dominance
  107. 3:48did not budge since July of last year.
  108. 3:51We've been stuck in this exact same
  109. 3:53range for almost a year and a half. And
  110. 3:55so the fact that there was no separation
  111. 3:56between the altcoin market and between
  112. 3:58Bitcoin tells us we're doing exactly
  113. 4:00like what we do when we bounce off the
  114. 4:02bottom where everything kind of bounces
  115. 4:04together. I showed an example of this in
  116. 4:06my newsletter that I put out several
  117. 4:08days ago that it's very common for
  118. 4:10everything to bounce together when
  119. 4:11you're coming off of a floor like we
  120. 4:13could see back in the recovery of 2019
  121. 4:16off of our capitulative floor or more
  122. 4:18specifically when we had the C19 crash
  123. 4:21there in March of 2020 that the altcoin
  124. 4:23market moves up with Bitcoin. So, I've
  125. 4:25got the altcoin market here in blue and
  126. 4:27I've got Bitcoin here in the
  127. 4:28candlesticks. It's very common for
  128. 4:30everything to come off the floor
  129. 4:31together. But then once we actually kind
  130. 4:33of get ourselves stuck, there will
  131. 4:35become this separation here that happens
  132. 4:37with Bitcoin where the altcoin market
  133. 4:39does not follow until Bitcoin can get
  134. 4:42over here and take out that all-time
  135. 4:45high. Then we will typically see the
  136. 4:47altcoin or altcoin market follow. But in
  137. 4:49in particular, we will see it move in
  138. 4:51unison with Bitcoin off the floor. And
  139. 4:54that drop that you're looking for there
  140. 4:56on the Bitcoin dominance doesn't
  141. 4:58actually come until we get to really
  142. 5:01like the yolo, the exciting, the
  143. 5:02euphoria, the expansion, the kumbaya.
  144. 5:05Oh, pump it up. All that stuff happens.
  145. 5:07And that's usually going to take the
  146. 5:08expansion moment of a market. Otherwise,
  147. 5:11it's really common that we're going to
  148. 5:12see the Bitcoin dominance just get stuck
  149. 5:14in this environment while this market is
  150. 5:16acting in unison coming off of the
  151. 5:18floor. Typically our next phases that
  152. 5:20we're going to enter is some type of
  153. 5:22ranging behavior to happen in here or
  154. 5:24from higher, right? And then what we
  155. 5:26have to have is we have to have a
  156. 5:27separation of macro to come that has
  157. 5:29Bitcoin follow along and then the
  158. 5:31altcoin market follows after that. So,
  159. 5:33we're really acting exactly like what
  160. 5:35we've acted like off the bottom of all
  161. 5:37past bare markets, even with there not
  162. 5:40being a separation of the altcoins from
  163. 5:42Bitcoin. and that structurally even in
  164. 5:45these types of situations where if the
  165. 5:47end result is going to be revisiting
  166. 5:49back to that floor of like 35 36 37%
  167. 5:52Bitcoin dominance and like one of the
  168. 5:53most epic alt seasons of our lives uh
  169. 5:55still even hovering in here would make
  170. 5:58logical sense when we think about the
  171. 6:00steps that would be necessary for that
  172. 6:02type of environment to manifest itself
  173. 6:04in the crypto market that we would
  174. 6:06typically enter into some type of
  175. 6:09ranging price action to happen in here
  176. 6:11and then a separation of Bitcoin happens
  177. 6:13that takes us back to the high where it
  178. 6:16breaks itself out and shoots back up to
  179. 6:18the high. And in that environment
  180. 6:20historically of past recoveries and
  181. 6:23beginning phases of bull markets, that
  182. 6:25can lead to a little bit of a push here
  183. 6:27in the Bitcoin dominance like so before
  184. 6:30that expansion happens and then we see
  185. 6:33that occur. And so I can see that
  186. 6:34clearly here on the Bitcoin dominance
  187. 6:36that that still seems pretty likely that
  188. 6:38there could just be kind of this push up
  189. 6:39here and then that would logically make
  190. 6:41sense based on how things usually behave
  191. 6:44that we're going to we're going to range
  192. 6:45out here for some time. Then there's
  193. 6:47going to be this break from Bitcoin and
  194. 6:49then finally the altcoin market follows
  195. 6:50behind because right now we're really
  196. 6:52moving in lock step which is
  197. 6:54historically what we do off the low then
  198. 6:56we enter that kind of choppy zone that
  199. 6:59patience zone while we have to wait for
  200. 7:01this thing to be able to exit. And so
  201. 7:03the two kind of pictures I'm trying to
  202. 7:04paint here is saying like, yep,
  203. 7:06everything looks fine. This market still
  204. 7:08looks exactly like what it does when we
  205. 7:10come off the lows, whether it's onchain,
  206. 7:12whether it's technicals, whether it's
  207. 7:13dynamics of altcoins versus Bitcoin
  208. 7:16where we see things moving lock step off
  209. 7:18the lows, it all looks very normal. And
  210. 7:20so the good news is saying, hey, bottom
  211. 7:23in, yay, all good. Now, next phase,
  212. 7:26ranging and then waiting for macro,
  213. 7:29Bitcoin, and then altcoin market. and
  214. 7:31that we do see that dynamic present here
  215. 7:33on the altcoin market, but it's still
  216. 7:35it's like trying to say, hey, look, it's
  217. 7:37going to be really exciting. And it's
  218. 7:38that mix, right, with influencers,
  219. 7:40right, historically create a lot of
  220. 7:42hype, create a lot of excitement, right?
  221. 7:43We could we could ignore all this and
  222. 7:45say impending Bitcoin dominance collapse
  223. 7:48any moment now. Check in today. We check
  224. 7:51in. Is the collapse of the Bitcoin
  225. 7:53dominance starting? Right. I I do think
  226. 7:55that will come. Uh but usually there's a
  227. 7:57couple of phases first that we have to
  228. 7:58go through. And it's still looking right
  229. 8:00on track. It's looking wonderful. It's
  230. 8:02just, you know, where will these ranges
  231. 8:03happen to have have to manifest
  232. 8:05themselves on the Bitcoin price chart
  233. 8:07and for the crypto market before this
  234. 8:10can lead to an expansion over here on
  235. 8:12IGV, the tech software sector ETF, which
  236. 8:15we've tracked really through the whole
  237. 8:16bare market and into the recovery and
  238. 8:18was one of our strong arguments that
  239. 8:20this market would turn itself around.
  240. 8:22But we're still just kind of stuck
  241. 8:23waiting, right? And so there was nothing
  242. 8:25to say yesterday. Say, "Hey, where's
  243. 8:26where's something new manifesting itself
  244. 8:28on these charts to say something is
  245. 8:30different." It's not, right? We could
  246. 8:32totally still just be trying to find a
  247. 8:33support here that's going to try to
  248. 8:35build a range from a higher level or or
  249. 8:37we could already be in it to do it,
  250. 8:39right? None of these arguments are in
  251. 8:40any way implying, hey, we're going to go
  252. 8:42set new lows. It's just where does this
  253. 8:43range really establish itself at? The
  254. 8:46crowd will certainly get extremely
  255. 8:48euphoric if we get to the top of this
  256. 8:50range thinking we're ready to break out.
  257. 8:51Or they would get extremely pessimistic
  258. 8:53and scared that the world is coming to
  259. 8:55an end if we pull back from here. Either
  260. 8:57way, we're trying to make a little bit
  261. 8:59of sense out of a bunch of chaos now in
  262. 9:01a range. Right? These are our range
  263. 9:03boundaries. That's the bottom of our
  264. 9:05range boundary. That's the top of our
  265. 9:06range boundary. And now we're trying to
  266. 9:08shuffle our way back through here where
  267. 9:09there's usually a lot of noise that ends
  268. 9:11up showing up. For me personally, the
  269. 9:13way I'm treating it is obviously I've
  270. 9:14had some cash sidelined. I got over 80%
  271. 9:17of my capital in here. I did 25, 25, and
  272. 9:2030% in here and then little little nips
  273. 9:23along the way up throughout here. But I
  274. 9:26obviously sit there and think, you know,
  275. 9:27at what point would I just go ahead and
  276. 9:29do a oneshot clip of getting it all in
  277. 9:31there all at one time? And, you know, it
  278. 9:33would probably be if we saw something
  279. 9:35like what we saw back in 2023,
  280. 9:38if we even end up getting it. Otherwise,
  281. 9:41I probably have to wait more for like a
  282. 9:43moment like that. If we're going to end
  283. 9:45up doing something like this, that where
  284. 9:47we come back and back test this level,
  285. 9:48it would probably end up having to be
  286. 9:50right there. But in the event of
  287. 9:52something more like this right in here
  288. 9:54where we just kind of stall out at the
  289. 9:55top of the range and then our our range
  290. 9:57really establishes throughout here
  291. 9:59between, you know, 71 and, you know,
  292. 10:00$85,000 for Bitcoin. I just kind of look
  293. 10:03at it in this type of lens, right? We're
  294. 10:05we're certainly beyond the bottom based
  295. 10:07on what we've seen in the past based on
  296. 10:09the technicals, based on onchain, right?
  297. 10:11Market would have to do something
  298. 10:12different than what we've ever seen. But
  299. 10:14if we're going to use that data, we
  300. 10:15would say, "Yep, this is exactly what
  301. 10:16we've done when the bottom's already
  302. 10:18come in." If this range establishes
  303. 10:19itself lower like so, you know, I'd
  304. 10:22probably have to take that one shop clip
  305. 10:24right down in here. Probably around 72
  306. 10:26$73,000
  307. 10:28being like some type of back test coming
  308. 10:30in here on that 200 day moving average.
  309. 10:33kind of showing you right there. It It
  310. 10:35just seems like that would be good
  311. 10:36enough for me to go ahead and take the
  312. 10:38shot and say that's it. I will say
  313. 10:40having a little bit of cash sidelined
  314. 10:42has been beneficial because I've gotten
  315. 10:43to kind of witness how the market has
  316. 10:45initially reacted off the floor and
  317. 10:47where there's like some weaknesses in my
  318. 10:48portfolio to kind of like allocate in
  319. 10:50certain places that maybe I don't think
  320. 10:52I was strong enough in. Um, so I have my
  321. 10:54list of just a few coins um where I will
  322. 10:57just take it and blast it all at one
  323. 10:59time [laughter] in the event that it can
  324. 11:00come down low enough here to go ahead
  325. 11:02and hit that. Um, I don't know if that's
  326. 11:04going to happen or if it's going to end
  327. 11:05up being more like this stuff that we've
  328. 11:07been talking about in here where it
  329. 11:09shifts its way up and then it comes down
  330. 11:11after hitting the top of the range
  331. 11:13boundary throughout in here. Otherwise,
  332. 11:14I'll be waiting longer. Otherwise, that
  333. 11:16would probably be my grab as we've of
  334. 11:18course done the same thing. So where we
  335. 11:20go ahead and flip on the Brett down in
  336. 11:23here coming off that low breaking
  337. 11:25through that 200 day moving average in
  338. 11:27there right it's just there's no
  339. 11:28thinking right like talk about with
  340. 11:29conviction there's no thinking for me
  341. 11:31I've got my bread I've got my moving
  342. 11:33average break I've got my technicals I
  343. 11:35know we've already hit the onchain
  344. 11:36losses easy peasy I think the the
  345. 11:38hardest thing for everyone in this
  346. 11:40environment based on my own experiences
  347. 11:42right in creating content we're about to
  348. 11:44be in November right November is going
  349. 11:46to be my seven-year anniversary of
  350. 11:48creating YouTube content and really
  351. 11:49getting to watch social sentiment very
  352. 11:51closely through all of these. If we kind
  353. 11:53of do what we typically do where, you
  354. 11:55know, we go through a bare market, we
  355. 11:57ricochet off the low, people get excited
  356. 12:00that the low is in and then they're
  357. 12:01looking for expansion to come up right
  358. 12:03away. That's never happened before.
  359. 12:06[laughter] It's never happened where we
  360. 12:07go straight from bottom into expansion
  361. 12:09really quick. It's it's we come off the
  362. 12:11bottom, then we go through this phase in
  363. 12:14the market where we kind of stall, we
  364. 12:16wait for macro to give us this signal,
  365. 12:19then Bitcoin takes that signal and runs
  366. 12:21with it, and then the altcoin market
  367. 12:23follows behind it. And so I of course
  368. 12:25want to come on the channel and be like,
  369. 12:26"Yo, low, yo, low, yo, low, right? I'm
  370. 12:30content creator, right? Engagement,
  371. 12:31clicks, all that stuff, right? But it's
  372. 12:34usually this part that's like the
  373. 12:35hardest part for people. You can have
  374. 12:37every piece of data telling you that the
  375. 12:39bottom is in and we're beyond that and
  376. 12:41that we have to wait for the macro
  377. 12:42element to line up and then once that
  378. 12:44happens then Bitcoin takes the lead and
  379. 12:46then finally the altcoin market goes.
  380. 12:48But what happens to sentiment is it
  381. 12:49really deteriorates. Uh people get
  382. 12:51bored, things slow down, altcoins kind
  383. 12:53of bleed sideways during this type of
  384. 12:56environment and then to add insult to
  385. 12:59injury, Bitcoin will usually take that
  386. 13:01first stab and then people look at their
  387. 13:03altcoins and say, "Dude, what? This
  388. 13:05coin's dumb. Why' I waste my time on
  389. 13:07this? And they capitulate on their
  390. 13:09altcoin after being super excited off
  391. 13:11the low, then being really bored, and
  392. 13:13then watching Bitcoin take the take the
  393. 13:15show. And then it's at like at that
  394. 13:17exact moment, Bitcoin expands, and then
  395. 13:19boom, there go the altcoins all at that
  396. 13:21moment. And people kind of convince
  397. 13:22themselves that isn't the order of
  398. 13:24operations, even though it's done it
  399. 13:25every single time. We ricochet off the
  400. 13:27floor, we range, macro leads, Bitcoin
  401. 13:30follows, then all coins come next. And
  402. 13:33that's where we're at. And it's exciting
  403. 13:34to be in in that environment. And that's
  404. 13:36what we're talking about. I mean, you
  405. 13:38can just flash back eight months ago.
  406. 13:39What are we talking about? Hey, we're
  407. 13:41stuck on top of the 100week moving
  408. 13:43average. We're going to capitulate. The
  409. 13:45crowd doesn't have anything to be scared
  410. 13:46of right now. It's going to get really
  411. 13:48ugly. Everybody's screaming, "No, it's
  412. 13:50not. No, it's not. We're on top of
  413. 13:5274,000. It's going to be fine." Right?
  414. 13:54Like that. That was an ugly time back
  415. 13:57then. Now we're talking about, hey,
  416. 13:59we're talking about real bull markets
  417. 14:00kicking in. What do they look like once
  418. 14:02they go? like we're past bare market
  419. 14:04stuff, we're past accumulation stuff.
  420. 14:06There's probably going to still be
  421. 14:07opportunities to accumulate, but we've
  422. 14:08entered historically into risk on
  423. 14:10periods whenever we can get into these
  424. 14:12elements right in here where dips are
  425. 14:14treated as they're probably going to be
  426. 14:16the low and then the next low that we
  427. 14:19have for the next correction that comes.
  428. 14:21Like I've said over and over, we're
  429. 14:22going to see liquidations. We're going
  430. 14:24to see corrections in a bull market.
  431. 14:26There's never been a time where we don't
  432. 14:27see them. But that the next correction,
  433. 14:29the next dip, it doesn't go as low as
  434. 14:31the last one. And that's more of what
  435. 14:32risk on is like. We're still going to
  436. 14:34see corrections. We're still going to
  437. 14:36see pullbacks, but they're not going to
  438. 14:37be as low as the ones previously. So, we
  439. 14:39still sit around kind of twiddling our
  440. 14:41thumbs to see how Bitcoin's going to
  441. 14:43react in here after being kind of stuck
  442. 14:45in this area since September 20th. So,
  443. 14:47we are at a month now. The big picture
  444. 14:49is very obvious in here. The harder
  445. 14:52picture for people to wrap their head
  446. 14:53around is the dynamic of what comes
  447. 14:55next. Typically ranging. We're waiting
  448. 14:57for macro. Once macro leads, then
  449. 15:00Bitcoin goes with it. and then the
  450. 15:01altcoins trail behind. Right now, we
  451. 15:04don't have that yet in macro. We're
  452. 15:05obviously bucking up in the area where
  453. 15:07we're all just kind of sitting around
  454. 15:08waiting. Hey, are you going to end up
  455. 15:10doing it? I don't necessarily see
  456. 15:11something that's telling me today's the
  457. 15:13day or or anything like that. But
  458. 15:15obviously getting back up into these
  459. 15:17prices. It was expected we'd see a
  460. 15:20tremendous amount of chop throughout in
  461. 15:21here and then it's of course going to be
  462. 15:23that moment right there where we start
  463. 15:24sitting around and my guess is we would
  464. 15:27see this happen in here and for some
  465. 15:29reason or another the crowd sentiment is
  466. 15:31just totally ravished and and not paying
  467. 15:33attention. You're right man not
  468. 15:35happening you [laughter] know. Ah why am
  469. 15:37I jerk sometimes? Either way, great time
  470. 15:39to be in the market entering into the
  471. 15:41phase of, you know, having to do all
  472. 15:42this ranging stuff and our main focus on
  473. 15:44being like, is something significant
  474. 15:46happening in this market, right? I think
  475. 15:48everybody cares about that. I know that.
  476. 15:49I've been doing this, like I said, for
  477. 15:50almost seven years now. The number one
  478. 15:52question in all different types of
  479. 15:54phrases and workarounds and attempts to
  480. 15:56get me to answer is when, moon? I get
  481. 15:58asked it a thousand different ways.
  482. 15:59When, moon? Well, I don't have a time
  483. 16:01for you to tell you here's when it's
  484. 16:02going to happen. I can really outline
  485. 16:04exactly how the dynamics are and how it
  486. 16:06tends to play out. and it tends to play
  487. 16:08out that we go through some ranging. We
  488. 16:09wait for macro to push. Bitcoin then
  489. 16:11goes next and then the altcoins follow
  490. 16:13behind. But of course, when we look for
  491. 16:14those, we want to see things that are
  492. 16:16also flashing for the bottom of the
  493. 16:17market to be in, right? And that's what
  494. 16:19we saw on chain. That's what we've seen
  495. 16:21here with the technicals. It's
  496. 16:22historically normal for the altcoin
  497. 16:24market to move together. But when we're
  498. 16:25looking for things to say, hey, I I
  499. 16:27don't really care so much about the
  500. 16:28bottom. I care about when moon. That's
  501. 16:30when we start working in all these
  502. 16:32different dynamics, right? And talking
  503. 16:33about Bitcoin dominance, what usually
  504. 16:35happens and that, you know, there's
  505. 16:36usually this push to a new high for
  506. 16:38Bitcoin where that Bitcoin dominance
  507. 16:39tries to tries to get out, the crowd
  508. 16:42sentiment usually goes down and then
  509. 16:43once that Bitcoin can get out, boom,
  510. 16:46that's where this thing ends up falling
  511. 16:47all apart. And that's just where we're
  512. 16:49at and that's what we're waiting on. I'm
  513. 16:50happy to be here. I know this won't last
  514. 16:52forever. Uh I wrote about this in the
  515. 16:54newsletter, too. We tend to spend even
  516. 16:56in an absolute bull market in here uh if
  517. 16:58you wouldn't guess it to be true uh only
  518. 17:0227%
  519. 17:03of this market uh was spent actually
  520. 17:06moving up. Otherwise 72%
  521. 17:09of the time is spent ranging and it's
  522. 17:13only 27% of the time where we're
  523. 17:15actually moving up. And I think people
  524. 17:18tend to forget that. Uh think about what
  525. 17:20a bull flag is. If you understand what a
  526. 17:22bull flag is, is where price moves up
  527. 17:24and then it ranges and then price moves
  528. 17:26up and then it ranges in here that this
  529. 17:29is how much time you tend to spend in
  530. 17:32here versus how much time you spend in
  531. 17:34here, right? And that's just how markets
  532. 17:37work. You spend most of your time going
  533. 17:39sideways versus those actual big
  534. 17:41breakouts that end up coming. And if you
  535. 17:43do yourself a favor and have those
  536. 17:45expectations that we we do stairst step
  537. 17:48in markets, well that stairst step is
  538. 17:50very short compared to that phase
  539. 17:52whereas the stair step, right? That's
  540. 17:54how it works. So we'll get there. We're
  541. 17:56waiting for the market to flash some
  542. 17:57type of sign. Again, for me, if we got
  543. 17:59to like 72, $73,000 for Bitcoin, that
  544. 18:02would probably be the moment where I
  545. 18:03say, "That's it. YOLO. I'm going for it.
  546. 18:05We're at 100%." Um, otherwise I'm not
  547. 18:07fully convinced that even has to happen
  548. 18:09that we could still push our way up to
  549. 18:12try to hit the top of this range before
  550. 18:14we end up back testing back in here.
  551. 18:16Otherwise, it's still waiting for the
  552. 18:18market to show its hand and tell us
  553. 18:19what's going to end up happening. Again,
  554. 18:21I I try to paint that big picture on it.
  555. 18:23Uh, it's still all this stuff, right?
  556. 18:25It's just all the chop along the way and
  557. 18:27the ranging along the way. And we're
  558. 18:28trying to figure out what ranging within
  559. 18:30a range is going to look like. And
  560. 18:32that's just expert level 10,00 very
  561. 18:35difficult. But our broader context of
  562. 18:36the market and saying we're beyond the
  563. 18:38bottom. This is typically how the
  564. 18:39altcoin market moves together. Next we
  565. 18:41wait for this really big clear macro
  566. 18:43Bitcoin situation to unfold and then we
  567. 18:45see altcoins all go together. Very
  568. 18:47exciting, right? And like if you just
  569. 18:48kind of look at it like, okay, look,
  570. 18:50we've done all of this uh you know,
  571. 18:52whoa, man. You know, we just have that
  572. 18:54part and that's going to be crazy and
  573. 18:55wild. It it's true. Uh but we have these
  574. 18:58things here, too. And all I'm trying to
  575. 18:59do is help with that sentiment, help
  576. 19:01with that mind thought or that thought
  577. 19:03process as we go through this and
  578. 19:04because there is usually a lot of
  579. 19:06psychological warfare that happens here
  580. 19:09in the middle. Um, but everything does
  581. 19:11point towards an end result uh being
  582. 19:13very favorable. We just have to take our
  583. 19:15time with it. So the best piece of
  584. 19:16advice I can give you is to just really
  585. 19:18avoid social media. I go there and I
  586. 19:20look at it and it's always the mix of
  587. 19:22the two different things. Every pullback
  588. 19:24is met with extreme fear because there's
  589. 19:27extremely low conviction capital of
  590. 19:29people who thought we were going to
  591. 19:304050k. They had to enter higher. So
  592. 19:32their emotions are all all over the
  593. 19:34place. We warned of that weeks ago that
  594. 19:36that would happen and that will continue
  595. 19:38to happen. Those extremely low
  596. 19:40conviction participants will have a loud
  597. 19:42voice and things will go viral for them.
  598. 19:44But then it also at the same time on
  599. 19:46social media you've got so much
  600. 19:48nonsense. You've got so much, oh this is
  601. 19:50so bullish. Oh, this is going to happen.
  602. 19:52Oh, this is crazy bullish and it's like
  603. 19:54really man based on what? Like this is
  604. 19:56usually rangy, right? Like you know the
  605. 19:59phases of a market. And so you know you
  606. 20:01have a low conviction capital group
  607. 20:03who's very scared but then of course you
  608. 20:05have the content creation that tries to
  609. 20:08constantly create the hype. And so
  610. 20:09you're getting bombarded by both sides
  611. 20:11of it when that's usually not really the
  612. 20:13picture. The picture is hey man this is
  613. 20:14just a recovery. We're going through the
  614. 20:16typical processes. Uh, all that stuff is
  615. 20:18just a bunch of noise and people find
  616. 20:20themselves emotionally ravished by all
  617. 20:22of it if they pay really close attention
  618. 20:24to all that stuff. So, do whatever you
  619. 20:26want. I just know that it's a total
  620. 20:28waste of my time. Every time I open up X
  621. 20:30and and start scrolling, it's like this
  622. 20:32is crazy. This is nuts, this whole
  623. 20:34thing. So, all right, I'm going to wrap
  624. 20:36it up, you guys. I hope that you're
  625. 20:37doing well. Hope you had a wonderful
  626. 20:39weekend. I hope you're having a good
  627. 20:40week so far. I'll check in with you guys
  628. 20:41tomorrow morning and markets in the
  629. 20:43morning. In the meantime, check out the
  630. 20:44newsletter that I published over here at
  631. 20:46blockchainbacker.substack.com.
  632. 20:48The early phases of a bull market. The
  633. 20:50same historical setup is taking shape in
  634. 20:52Bitcoin and altcoins. The next dynamic
  635. 20:54phase and behindthe-scenes data. So, I
  636. 20:56mentioned in the past that I do have
  637. 20:58just engagement data and things that I
  638. 20:59can see, you know, website traffic and,
  639. 21:01you know, newsletter and likes versus
  640. 21:03dislikes and view counts and time spent
  641. 21:06watching. I have all these extra data
  642. 21:08points that I've talked to you about in
  643. 21:10the past. Um, and some of them have
  644. 21:11meaning. So, I share some of them here
  645. 21:13in this newsletter that kind of behind
  646. 21:15the scenes back-end data um that really
  647. 21:18showed how, you know, the top of the
  648. 21:19market was coming in back there in July,
  649. 21:21August, September, and October of last
  650. 21:22year. And they really show how that data
  651. 21:24has drastically changed here at the lows
  652. 21:27um and recovering into a much more
  653. 21:29positive direction. So, we do have
  654. 21:31sentiment uh whether or not there's low
  655. 21:32conviction capital. Uh we can see
  656. 21:34behavior of participants is very
  657. 21:36different than what we saw during the
  658. 21:37bare market. So, it's very reassuring
  659. 21:39and optimistic. So, all of that's
  660. 21:41available over here at
  661. 21:42blockchainbacker.substack.com.
  662. 21:44I do also audio record all of these. So,
  663. 21:45if you want to pop in your AirPods or
  664. 21:47listen in your vehicle or something
  665. 21:48while you're driving to work or hanging
  666. 21:50out, whatever. There's a link down here
  667. 21:51in the description of this video to the
  668. 21:53newsletter at
  669. 21:53blockchainbacker.substack.com
  670. 21:56or you can go directly within your
  671. 21:57browser. Otherwise, guys, I will catch
  672. 21:59up with you tomorrow. I hope you have a
  673. 22:00wonderful day. But that's going to be
  674. 22:01it. Thank you so much for watching. If
  675. 22:03you could please like this video and
  676. 22:05give it a thumbs up. If you're new to
  677. 22:07the channel, please subscribe and hit
  678. 22:09the notification bell so you can be
  679. 22:10notified of when I create new content
  680. 22:12and when I go live. As always, this is
  681. 22:14not investment advice and I am not a
  682. 22:16financial adviser. But if you ever need
  683. 22:18a pickme up or a little bit of
  684. 22:20reassurance, just remember that the
  685. 22:22blockchain backers got your back. Have a
  686. 22:26good one.
  687. 22:31[music]

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