The Same Pace for Bull Recovery on Bitcoin, Altcoin Market, XRP and Crypto, Patience Till Expansion — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:01[music]
- 0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
- 0:16the Blockchain Backer bringing you the
- 0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
- 0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
- 0:23at the Bitcoin price chart along with
- 0:25the total market cap of the
- 0:26cryptocurrency market. As for the last
- 0:28several weeks, the market has really
- 0:29just been kind of stuck here since the
- 0:31middle of September after breaking
- 0:33through the 50week moving average like
- 0:35we historically do when we've come off
- 0:37the bottom of a bare market and produced
- 0:39all of our bullish divergences and then
- 0:42confirm those bullish divergences. We've
- 0:44just kind of been stuck. That shouldn't
- 0:45be news to anybody. But as we're stuck,
- 0:48the major questions are, are we already
- 0:50ranging? Are we already stuck for the
- 0:52months ahead? Or do we still have to go
- 0:55a little bit higher to then go range for
- 0:58a longer period of time? Or do we just
- 1:00kind of range out here right now as we
- 1:03wait for something more macro oriented
- 1:05to cooperate and then push this market a
- 1:07little bit higher? And it's really the
- 1:09dilemma we're kind of stuck in right now
- 1:11on have we already started ranging or
- 1:13not. the big picture I try to
- 1:15continuously paint and before we ever
- 1:17had this pullback is to say conviction
- 1:19is going to matter on having the bigger
- 1:21picture perspective of this market and
- 1:23where we're at. We have certainly
- 1:25flashed every historical behavior of
- 1:28being beyond the bottom. Whether that is
- 1:30technicals, whether that is onchain,
- 1:32whether that is social dynamics of the
- 1:34market and also sentiment, we are
- 1:36certainly already mirroring all the
- 1:38things we've seen in the past that we're
- 1:40past the bottom. The difficult part is
- 1:42when we're trying to climb this wall of
- 1:44worry, all the various types of shapes
- 1:46we can take to climb up those walls of
- 1:48worry and where will those ranges build
- 1:50from? That's clearly been the messaging
- 1:53for the last several weeks at this
- 1:54point. And those answers still remain
- 1:56unknown, but this is really just kind of
- 1:59what we tend to do once we're able to
- 2:01get out of that 50week moving average.
- 2:04Just we're all left twiddling our
- 2:05thumbs. Is is it going to be here or is
- 2:08it going to be from here? Yesterday I
- 2:10was like, I'm going to give the market
- 2:11kind of a day to play out some price
- 2:12action to see if we can get something
- 2:14new to talk about to describe that
- 2:16differently, but we didn't get really
- 2:17anything. We got we got some green in
- 2:19the market yesterday, back to some red
- 2:21again today. We're really just ranging.
- 2:22But I figured, you know, we'll we'll
- 2:24paint the bigger picture again here to
- 2:26understand what is really happening in
- 2:28this market right now. We know that
- 2:29we're beyond the bottom. The onchain and
- 2:31the technicals have done everything
- 2:32we've historically seen. If it isn't the
- 2:35bottom, then it would be different from
- 2:36every bottom we've ever had. Don't be
- 2:38confused by that. The crowd will always
- 2:40think this time is different. I can't
- 2:42operate like that. I have to operate
- 2:44based on the data that I see. But after
- 2:46pushing off that floor, we can clearly
- 2:48see how like Bitcoin and the altcoin
- 2:50market moved hand in hand in here. Over
- 2:53here on the left, I've got the altcoin
- 2:54market. It's excluding Bitcoin and
- 2:56Ethereum. Over here on the right, I've
- 2:58got Bitcoin itself. And what we can see
- 3:01is this market moved right in unison
- 3:03here heading right back to the exact
- 3:05same levels of where we capitulated from
- 3:08back in January and February of earlier
- 3:10this year. There was no divergence
- 3:12between the two. We moved up together.
- 3:15That's actually exactly what we've done
- 3:16off the bottom of each bare market when
- 3:19we're proving that the bottom is in. But
- 3:21what we can see is that there's been no
- 3:23flashing of like an alt season. And an
- 3:25alt season is going to be where we
- 3:26actually see the Bitcoin dominance go
- 3:28down and we're actually experiencing a
- 3:31higher push on the altcoin market beyond
- 3:34what Bitcoin is doing. It would be an
- 3:36outperformance of the altcoin market
- 3:37versus Bitcoin and that would mean there
- 3:39would be a move down in the Bitcoin
- 3:41dominance as the altcoin market would be
- 3:43taking more share away from Bitcoin. But
- 3:46we could see that the Bitcoin dominance
- 3:48did not budge since July of last year.
- 3:51We've been stuck in this exact same
- 3:53range for almost a year and a half. And
- 3:55so the fact that there was no separation
- 3:56between the altcoin market and between
- 3:58Bitcoin tells us we're doing exactly
- 4:00like what we do when we bounce off the
- 4:02bottom where everything kind of bounces
- 4:04together. I showed an example of this in
- 4:06my newsletter that I put out several
- 4:08days ago that it's very common for
- 4:10everything to bounce together when
- 4:11you're coming off of a floor like we
- 4:13could see back in the recovery of 2019
- 4:16off of our capitulative floor or more
- 4:18specifically when we had the C19 crash
- 4:21there in March of 2020 that the altcoin
- 4:23market moves up with Bitcoin. So, I've
- 4:25got the altcoin market here in blue and
- 4:27I've got Bitcoin here in the
- 4:28candlesticks. It's very common for
- 4:30everything to come off the floor
- 4:31together. But then once we actually kind
- 4:33of get ourselves stuck, there will
- 4:35become this separation here that happens
- 4:37with Bitcoin where the altcoin market
- 4:39does not follow until Bitcoin can get
- 4:42over here and take out that all-time
- 4:45high. Then we will typically see the
- 4:47altcoin or altcoin market follow. But in
- 4:49in particular, we will see it move in
- 4:51unison with Bitcoin off the floor. And
- 4:54that drop that you're looking for there
- 4:56on the Bitcoin dominance doesn't
- 4:58actually come until we get to really
- 5:01like the yolo, the exciting, the
- 5:02euphoria, the expansion, the kumbaya.
- 5:05Oh, pump it up. All that stuff happens.
- 5:07And that's usually going to take the
- 5:08expansion moment of a market. Otherwise,
- 5:11it's really common that we're going to
- 5:12see the Bitcoin dominance just get stuck
- 5:14in this environment while this market is
- 5:16acting in unison coming off of the
- 5:18floor. Typically our next phases that
- 5:20we're going to enter is some type of
- 5:22ranging behavior to happen in here or
- 5:24from higher, right? And then what we
- 5:26have to have is we have to have a
- 5:27separation of macro to come that has
- 5:29Bitcoin follow along and then the
- 5:31altcoin market follows after that. So,
- 5:33we're really acting exactly like what
- 5:35we've acted like off the bottom of all
- 5:37past bare markets, even with there not
- 5:40being a separation of the altcoins from
- 5:42Bitcoin. and that structurally even in
- 5:45these types of situations where if the
- 5:47end result is going to be revisiting
- 5:49back to that floor of like 35 36 37%
- 5:52Bitcoin dominance and like one of the
- 5:53most epic alt seasons of our lives uh
- 5:55still even hovering in here would make
- 5:58logical sense when we think about the
- 6:00steps that would be necessary for that
- 6:02type of environment to manifest itself
- 6:04in the crypto market that we would
- 6:06typically enter into some type of
- 6:09ranging price action to happen in here
- 6:11and then a separation of Bitcoin happens
- 6:13that takes us back to the high where it
- 6:16breaks itself out and shoots back up to
- 6:18the high. And in that environment
- 6:20historically of past recoveries and
- 6:23beginning phases of bull markets, that
- 6:25can lead to a little bit of a push here
- 6:27in the Bitcoin dominance like so before
- 6:30that expansion happens and then we see
- 6:33that occur. And so I can see that
- 6:34clearly here on the Bitcoin dominance
- 6:36that that still seems pretty likely that
- 6:38there could just be kind of this push up
- 6:39here and then that would logically make
- 6:41sense based on how things usually behave
- 6:44that we're going to we're going to range
- 6:45out here for some time. Then there's
- 6:47going to be this break from Bitcoin and
- 6:49then finally the altcoin market follows
- 6:50behind because right now we're really
- 6:52moving in lock step which is
- 6:54historically what we do off the low then
- 6:56we enter that kind of choppy zone that
- 6:59patience zone while we have to wait for
- 7:01this thing to be able to exit. And so
- 7:03the two kind of pictures I'm trying to
- 7:04paint here is saying like, yep,
- 7:06everything looks fine. This market still
- 7:08looks exactly like what it does when we
- 7:10come off the lows, whether it's onchain,
- 7:12whether it's technicals, whether it's
- 7:13dynamics of altcoins versus Bitcoin
- 7:16where we see things moving lock step off
- 7:18the lows, it all looks very normal. And
- 7:20so the good news is saying, hey, bottom
- 7:23in, yay, all good. Now, next phase,
- 7:26ranging and then waiting for macro,
- 7:29Bitcoin, and then altcoin market. and
- 7:31that we do see that dynamic present here
- 7:33on the altcoin market, but it's still
- 7:35it's like trying to say, hey, look, it's
- 7:37going to be really exciting. And it's
- 7:38that mix, right, with influencers,
- 7:40right, historically create a lot of
- 7:42hype, create a lot of excitement, right?
- 7:43We could we could ignore all this and
- 7:45say impending Bitcoin dominance collapse
- 7:48any moment now. Check in today. We check
- 7:51in. Is the collapse of the Bitcoin
- 7:53dominance starting? Right. I I do think
- 7:55that will come. Uh but usually there's a
- 7:57couple of phases first that we have to
- 7:58go through. And it's still looking right
- 8:00on track. It's looking wonderful. It's
- 8:02just, you know, where will these ranges
- 8:03happen to have have to manifest
- 8:05themselves on the Bitcoin price chart
- 8:07and for the crypto market before this
- 8:10can lead to an expansion over here on
- 8:12IGV, the tech software sector ETF, which
- 8:15we've tracked really through the whole
- 8:16bare market and into the recovery and
- 8:18was one of our strong arguments that
- 8:20this market would turn itself around.
- 8:22But we're still just kind of stuck
- 8:23waiting, right? And so there was nothing
- 8:25to say yesterday. Say, "Hey, where's
- 8:26where's something new manifesting itself
- 8:28on these charts to say something is
- 8:30different." It's not, right? We could
- 8:32totally still just be trying to find a
- 8:33support here that's going to try to
- 8:35build a range from a higher level or or
- 8:37we could already be in it to do it,
- 8:39right? None of these arguments are in
- 8:40any way implying, hey, we're going to go
- 8:42set new lows. It's just where does this
- 8:43range really establish itself at? The
- 8:46crowd will certainly get extremely
- 8:48euphoric if we get to the top of this
- 8:50range thinking we're ready to break out.
- 8:51Or they would get extremely pessimistic
- 8:53and scared that the world is coming to
- 8:55an end if we pull back from here. Either
- 8:57way, we're trying to make a little bit
- 8:59of sense out of a bunch of chaos now in
- 9:01a range. Right? These are our range
- 9:03boundaries. That's the bottom of our
- 9:05range boundary. That's the top of our
- 9:06range boundary. And now we're trying to
- 9:08shuffle our way back through here where
- 9:09there's usually a lot of noise that ends
- 9:11up showing up. For me personally, the
- 9:13way I'm treating it is obviously I've
- 9:14had some cash sidelined. I got over 80%
- 9:17of my capital in here. I did 25, 25, and
- 9:2030% in here and then little little nips
- 9:23along the way up throughout here. But I
- 9:26obviously sit there and think, you know,
- 9:27at what point would I just go ahead and
- 9:29do a oneshot clip of getting it all in
- 9:31there all at one time? And, you know, it
- 9:33would probably be if we saw something
- 9:35like what we saw back in 2023,
- 9:38if we even end up getting it. Otherwise,
- 9:41I probably have to wait more for like a
- 9:43moment like that. If we're going to end
- 9:45up doing something like this, that where
- 9:47we come back and back test this level,
- 9:48it would probably end up having to be
- 9:50right there. But in the event of
- 9:52something more like this right in here
- 9:54where we just kind of stall out at the
- 9:55top of the range and then our our range
- 9:57really establishes throughout here
- 9:59between, you know, 71 and, you know,
- 10:00$85,000 for Bitcoin. I just kind of look
- 10:03at it in this type of lens, right? We're
- 10:05we're certainly beyond the bottom based
- 10:07on what we've seen in the past based on
- 10:09the technicals, based on onchain, right?
- 10:11Market would have to do something
- 10:12different than what we've ever seen. But
- 10:14if we're going to use that data, we
- 10:15would say, "Yep, this is exactly what
- 10:16we've done when the bottom's already
- 10:18come in." If this range establishes
- 10:19itself lower like so, you know, I'd
- 10:22probably have to take that one shop clip
- 10:24right down in here. Probably around 72
- 10:26$73,000
- 10:28being like some type of back test coming
- 10:30in here on that 200 day moving average.
- 10:33kind of showing you right there. It It
- 10:35just seems like that would be good
- 10:36enough for me to go ahead and take the
- 10:38shot and say that's it. I will say
- 10:40having a little bit of cash sidelined
- 10:42has been beneficial because I've gotten
- 10:43to kind of witness how the market has
- 10:45initially reacted off the floor and
- 10:47where there's like some weaknesses in my
- 10:48portfolio to kind of like allocate in
- 10:50certain places that maybe I don't think
- 10:52I was strong enough in. Um, so I have my
- 10:54list of just a few coins um where I will
- 10:57just take it and blast it all at one
- 10:59time [laughter] in the event that it can
- 11:00come down low enough here to go ahead
- 11:02and hit that. Um, I don't know if that's
- 11:04going to happen or if it's going to end
- 11:05up being more like this stuff that we've
- 11:07been talking about in here where it
- 11:09shifts its way up and then it comes down
- 11:11after hitting the top of the range
- 11:13boundary throughout in here. Otherwise,
- 11:14I'll be waiting longer. Otherwise, that
- 11:16would probably be my grab as we've of
- 11:18course done the same thing. So where we
- 11:20go ahead and flip on the Brett down in
- 11:23here coming off that low breaking
- 11:25through that 200 day moving average in
- 11:27there right it's just there's no
- 11:28thinking right like talk about with
- 11:29conviction there's no thinking for me
- 11:31I've got my bread I've got my moving
- 11:33average break I've got my technicals I
- 11:35know we've already hit the onchain
- 11:36losses easy peasy I think the the
- 11:38hardest thing for everyone in this
- 11:40environment based on my own experiences
- 11:42right in creating content we're about to
- 11:44be in November right November is going
- 11:46to be my seven-year anniversary of
- 11:48creating YouTube content and really
- 11:49getting to watch social sentiment very
- 11:51closely through all of these. If we kind
- 11:53of do what we typically do where, you
- 11:55know, we go through a bare market, we
- 11:57ricochet off the low, people get excited
- 12:00that the low is in and then they're
- 12:01looking for expansion to come up right
- 12:03away. That's never happened before.
- 12:06[laughter] It's never happened where we
- 12:07go straight from bottom into expansion
- 12:09really quick. It's it's we come off the
- 12:11bottom, then we go through this phase in
- 12:14the market where we kind of stall, we
- 12:16wait for macro to give us this signal,
- 12:19then Bitcoin takes that signal and runs
- 12:21with it, and then the altcoin market
- 12:23follows behind it. And so I of course
- 12:25want to come on the channel and be like,
- 12:26"Yo, low, yo, low, yo, low, right? I'm
- 12:30content creator, right? Engagement,
- 12:31clicks, all that stuff, right? But it's
- 12:34usually this part that's like the
- 12:35hardest part for people. You can have
- 12:37every piece of data telling you that the
- 12:39bottom is in and we're beyond that and
- 12:41that we have to wait for the macro
- 12:42element to line up and then once that
- 12:44happens then Bitcoin takes the lead and
- 12:46then finally the altcoin market goes.
- 12:48But what happens to sentiment is it
- 12:49really deteriorates. Uh people get
- 12:51bored, things slow down, altcoins kind
- 12:53of bleed sideways during this type of
- 12:56environment and then to add insult to
- 12:59injury, Bitcoin will usually take that
- 13:01first stab and then people look at their
- 13:03altcoins and say, "Dude, what? This
- 13:05coin's dumb. Why' I waste my time on
- 13:07this? And they capitulate on their
- 13:09altcoin after being super excited off
- 13:11the low, then being really bored, and
- 13:13then watching Bitcoin take the take the
- 13:15show. And then it's at like at that
- 13:17exact moment, Bitcoin expands, and then
- 13:19boom, there go the altcoins all at that
- 13:21moment. And people kind of convince
- 13:22themselves that isn't the order of
- 13:24operations, even though it's done it
- 13:25every single time. We ricochet off the
- 13:27floor, we range, macro leads, Bitcoin
- 13:30follows, then all coins come next. And
- 13:33that's where we're at. And it's exciting
- 13:34to be in in that environment. And that's
- 13:36what we're talking about. I mean, you
- 13:38can just flash back eight months ago.
- 13:39What are we talking about? Hey, we're
- 13:41stuck on top of the 100week moving
- 13:43average. We're going to capitulate. The
- 13:45crowd doesn't have anything to be scared
- 13:46of right now. It's going to get really
- 13:48ugly. Everybody's screaming, "No, it's
- 13:50not. No, it's not. We're on top of
- 13:5274,000. It's going to be fine." Right?
- 13:54Like that. That was an ugly time back
- 13:57then. Now we're talking about, hey,
- 13:59we're talking about real bull markets
- 14:00kicking in. What do they look like once
- 14:02they go? like we're past bare market
- 14:04stuff, we're past accumulation stuff.
- 14:06There's probably going to still be
- 14:07opportunities to accumulate, but we've
- 14:08entered historically into risk on
- 14:10periods whenever we can get into these
- 14:12elements right in here where dips are
- 14:14treated as they're probably going to be
- 14:16the low and then the next low that we
- 14:19have for the next correction that comes.
- 14:21Like I've said over and over, we're
- 14:22going to see liquidations. We're going
- 14:24to see corrections in a bull market.
- 14:26There's never been a time where we don't
- 14:27see them. But that the next correction,
- 14:29the next dip, it doesn't go as low as
- 14:31the last one. And that's more of what
- 14:32risk on is like. We're still going to
- 14:34see corrections. We're still going to
- 14:36see pullbacks, but they're not going to
- 14:37be as low as the ones previously. So, we
- 14:39still sit around kind of twiddling our
- 14:41thumbs to see how Bitcoin's going to
- 14:43react in here after being kind of stuck
- 14:45in this area since September 20th. So,
- 14:47we are at a month now. The big picture
- 14:49is very obvious in here. The harder
- 14:52picture for people to wrap their head
- 14:53around is the dynamic of what comes
- 14:55next. Typically ranging. We're waiting
- 14:57for macro. Once macro leads, then
- 15:00Bitcoin goes with it. and then the
- 15:01altcoins trail behind. Right now, we
- 15:04don't have that yet in macro. We're
- 15:05obviously bucking up in the area where
- 15:07we're all just kind of sitting around
- 15:08waiting. Hey, are you going to end up
- 15:10doing it? I don't necessarily see
- 15:11something that's telling me today's the
- 15:13day or or anything like that. But
- 15:15obviously getting back up into these
- 15:17prices. It was expected we'd see a
- 15:20tremendous amount of chop throughout in
- 15:21here and then it's of course going to be
- 15:23that moment right there where we start
- 15:24sitting around and my guess is we would
- 15:27see this happen in here and for some
- 15:29reason or another the crowd sentiment is
- 15:31just totally ravished and and not paying
- 15:33attention. You're right man not
- 15:35happening you [laughter] know. Ah why am
- 15:37I jerk sometimes? Either way, great time
- 15:39to be in the market entering into the
- 15:41phase of, you know, having to do all
- 15:42this ranging stuff and our main focus on
- 15:44being like, is something significant
- 15:46happening in this market, right? I think
- 15:48everybody cares about that. I know that.
- 15:49I've been doing this, like I said, for
- 15:50almost seven years now. The number one
- 15:52question in all different types of
- 15:54phrases and workarounds and attempts to
- 15:56get me to answer is when, moon? I get
- 15:58asked it a thousand different ways.
- 15:59When, moon? Well, I don't have a time
- 16:01for you to tell you here's when it's
- 16:02going to happen. I can really outline
- 16:04exactly how the dynamics are and how it
- 16:06tends to play out. and it tends to play
- 16:08out that we go through some ranging. We
- 16:09wait for macro to push. Bitcoin then
- 16:11goes next and then the altcoins follow
- 16:13behind. But of course, when we look for
- 16:14those, we want to see things that are
- 16:16also flashing for the bottom of the
- 16:17market to be in, right? And that's what
- 16:19we saw on chain. That's what we've seen
- 16:21here with the technicals. It's
- 16:22historically normal for the altcoin
- 16:24market to move together. But when we're
- 16:25looking for things to say, hey, I I
- 16:27don't really care so much about the
- 16:28bottom. I care about when moon. That's
- 16:30when we start working in all these
- 16:32different dynamics, right? And talking
- 16:33about Bitcoin dominance, what usually
- 16:35happens and that, you know, there's
- 16:36usually this push to a new high for
- 16:38Bitcoin where that Bitcoin dominance
- 16:39tries to tries to get out, the crowd
- 16:42sentiment usually goes down and then
- 16:43once that Bitcoin can get out, boom,
- 16:46that's where this thing ends up falling
- 16:47all apart. And that's just where we're
- 16:49at and that's what we're waiting on. I'm
- 16:50happy to be here. I know this won't last
- 16:52forever. Uh I wrote about this in the
- 16:54newsletter, too. We tend to spend even
- 16:56in an absolute bull market in here uh if
- 16:58you wouldn't guess it to be true uh only
- 17:0227%
- 17:03of this market uh was spent actually
- 17:06moving up. Otherwise 72%
- 17:09of the time is spent ranging and it's
- 17:13only 27% of the time where we're
- 17:15actually moving up. And I think people
- 17:18tend to forget that. Uh think about what
- 17:20a bull flag is. If you understand what a
- 17:22bull flag is, is where price moves up
- 17:24and then it ranges and then price moves
- 17:26up and then it ranges in here that this
- 17:29is how much time you tend to spend in
- 17:32here versus how much time you spend in
- 17:34here, right? And that's just how markets
- 17:37work. You spend most of your time going
- 17:39sideways versus those actual big
- 17:41breakouts that end up coming. And if you
- 17:43do yourself a favor and have those
- 17:45expectations that we we do stairst step
- 17:48in markets, well that stairst step is
- 17:50very short compared to that phase
- 17:52whereas the stair step, right? That's
- 17:54how it works. So we'll get there. We're
- 17:56waiting for the market to flash some
- 17:57type of sign. Again, for me, if we got
- 17:59to like 72, $73,000 for Bitcoin, that
- 18:02would probably be the moment where I
- 18:03say, "That's it. YOLO. I'm going for it.
- 18:05We're at 100%." Um, otherwise I'm not
- 18:07fully convinced that even has to happen
- 18:09that we could still push our way up to
- 18:12try to hit the top of this range before
- 18:14we end up back testing back in here.
- 18:16Otherwise, it's still waiting for the
- 18:18market to show its hand and tell us
- 18:19what's going to end up happening. Again,
- 18:21I I try to paint that big picture on it.
- 18:23Uh, it's still all this stuff, right?
- 18:25It's just all the chop along the way and
- 18:27the ranging along the way. And we're
- 18:28trying to figure out what ranging within
- 18:30a range is going to look like. And
- 18:32that's just expert level 10,00 very
- 18:35difficult. But our broader context of
- 18:36the market and saying we're beyond the
- 18:38bottom. This is typically how the
- 18:39altcoin market moves together. Next we
- 18:41wait for this really big clear macro
- 18:43Bitcoin situation to unfold and then we
- 18:45see altcoins all go together. Very
- 18:47exciting, right? And like if you just
- 18:48kind of look at it like, okay, look,
- 18:50we've done all of this uh you know,
- 18:52whoa, man. You know, we just have that
- 18:54part and that's going to be crazy and
- 18:55wild. It it's true. Uh but we have these
- 18:58things here, too. And all I'm trying to
- 18:59do is help with that sentiment, help
- 19:01with that mind thought or that thought
- 19:03process as we go through this and
- 19:04because there is usually a lot of
- 19:06psychological warfare that happens here
- 19:09in the middle. Um, but everything does
- 19:11point towards an end result uh being
- 19:13very favorable. We just have to take our
- 19:15time with it. So the best piece of
- 19:16advice I can give you is to just really
- 19:18avoid social media. I go there and I
- 19:20look at it and it's always the mix of
- 19:22the two different things. Every pullback
- 19:24is met with extreme fear because there's
- 19:27extremely low conviction capital of
- 19:29people who thought we were going to
- 19:304050k. They had to enter higher. So
- 19:32their emotions are all all over the
- 19:34place. We warned of that weeks ago that
- 19:36that would happen and that will continue
- 19:38to happen. Those extremely low
- 19:40conviction participants will have a loud
- 19:42voice and things will go viral for them.
- 19:44But then it also at the same time on
- 19:46social media you've got so much
- 19:48nonsense. You've got so much, oh this is
- 19:50so bullish. Oh, this is going to happen.
- 19:52Oh, this is crazy bullish and it's like
- 19:54really man based on what? Like this is
- 19:56usually rangy, right? Like you know the
- 19:59phases of a market. And so you know you
- 20:01have a low conviction capital group
- 20:03who's very scared but then of course you
- 20:05have the content creation that tries to
- 20:08constantly create the hype. And so
- 20:09you're getting bombarded by both sides
- 20:11of it when that's usually not really the
- 20:13picture. The picture is hey man this is
- 20:14just a recovery. We're going through the
- 20:16typical processes. Uh, all that stuff is
- 20:18just a bunch of noise and people find
- 20:20themselves emotionally ravished by all
- 20:22of it if they pay really close attention
- 20:24to all that stuff. So, do whatever you
- 20:26want. I just know that it's a total
- 20:28waste of my time. Every time I open up X
- 20:30and and start scrolling, it's like this
- 20:32is crazy. This is nuts, this whole
- 20:34thing. So, all right, I'm going to wrap
- 20:36it up, you guys. I hope that you're
- 20:37doing well. Hope you had a wonderful
- 20:39weekend. I hope you're having a good
- 20:40week so far. I'll check in with you guys
- 20:41tomorrow morning and markets in the
- 20:43morning. In the meantime, check out the
- 20:44newsletter that I published over here at
- 20:46blockchainbacker.substack.com.
- 20:48The early phases of a bull market. The
- 20:50same historical setup is taking shape in
- 20:52Bitcoin and altcoins. The next dynamic
- 20:54phase and behindthe-scenes data. So, I
- 20:56mentioned in the past that I do have
- 20:58just engagement data and things that I
- 20:59can see, you know, website traffic and,
- 21:01you know, newsletter and likes versus
- 21:03dislikes and view counts and time spent
- 21:06watching. I have all these extra data
- 21:08points that I've talked to you about in
- 21:10the past. Um, and some of them have
- 21:11meaning. So, I share some of them here
- 21:13in this newsletter that kind of behind
- 21:15the scenes back-end data um that really
- 21:18showed how, you know, the top of the
- 21:19market was coming in back there in July,
- 21:21August, September, and October of last
- 21:22year. And they really show how that data
- 21:24has drastically changed here at the lows
- 21:27um and recovering into a much more
- 21:29positive direction. So, we do have
- 21:31sentiment uh whether or not there's low
- 21:32conviction capital. Uh we can see
- 21:34behavior of participants is very
- 21:36different than what we saw during the
- 21:37bare market. So, it's very reassuring
- 21:39and optimistic. So, all of that's
- 21:41available over here at
- 21:42blockchainbacker.substack.com.
- 21:44I do also audio record all of these. So,
- 21:45if you want to pop in your AirPods or
- 21:47listen in your vehicle or something
- 21:48while you're driving to work or hanging
- 21:50out, whatever. There's a link down here
- 21:51in the description of this video to the
- 21:53newsletter at
- 21:53blockchainbacker.substack.com
- 21:56or you can go directly within your
- 21:57browser. Otherwise, guys, I will catch
- 21:59up with you tomorrow. I hope you have a
- 22:00wonderful day. But that's going to be
- 22:01it. Thank you so much for watching. If
- 22:03you could please like this video and
- 22:05give it a thumbs up. If you're new to
- 22:07the channel, please subscribe and hit
- 22:09the notification bell so you can be
- 22:10notified of when I create new content
- 22:12and when I go live. As always, this is
- 22:14not investment advice and I am not a
- 22:16financial adviser. But if you ever need
- 22:18a pickme up or a little bit of
- 22:20reassurance, just remember that the
- 22:22blockchain backers got your back. Have a
- 22:26good one.
- 22:31[music]
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