The NEXT League-Winning Quarterback - 2026 Fantasy Football — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:06Greetings and salutations, everyone. My
2. 0:08name is Ange Pericof, and welcome to my
3. 0:09YouTube channel. Today, we're going to
4. 0:10be talking about the next league-winning
5. 0:12quarterback. Now, finding said player
6. 0:14may not be as difficult as it
7. 0:15potentially sounds because this time
8. 0:17last year, I talked about Caleb Williams
9. 0:19being in my top 10 quarterback rankings.
10. 0:21And though I was thoroughly clowned for
11. 0:23it, he still was able to deliver because
12. 0:25of the vision that I had set for his
13. 0:27potential. And of course, he
14. 0:28accomplished QB five overall. Then I had
15. 0:31someone like Trevor Lawrence as a
16. 0:32preseason league winner finish as QB
17. 0:34four overall. Now, I didn't have the
18. 0:36vision on someone like Drake May
19. 0:38reaching the high ceiling in which he
20. 0:39was able to accomplish in 2025. But
21. 0:42despite that, we will utilize that as a
22. 0:44learning experience as we approach the
23. 0:452026 season. So, let me share with you
24. 0:47how I discovered the next league-winning
25. 0:49quarterback for the upcoming fantasy
26. 0:51football season. First and foremost, we
27. 0:53have to talk about rushing statistics
28. 0:55and the top 12 quarterback rushing
29. 0:57correlation from 2020 to 2025, the last
30. 1:00two seasons. Among the top 12 ranked
31. 1:02quarterbacks in those given seasons, 18
32. 1:05of the 24, so 75% of them were
33. 1:07considered mobile quarterbacks in a
34. 1:09fantasy sense. Now, a mobile quarterback
35. 1:11based on how I've defined it is a
36. 1:12quarterback that is capable of
37. 1:14accomplishing 265 or more rushing yards
38. 1:17within a given year. Now, the reason why
39. 1:19this is so important is because over the
40. 1:20course of the last decade of the NFL, we
41. 1:23have seen a gradual decline in terms of
42. 1:25the passing statistics from the
43. 1:26quarterback position. This most recent
44. 1:28year, 2025, highlighted in red, had the
45. 1:30fewest amount of passing attempts,
46. 1:32completions, passing yards on a per week
47. 1:35basis over the course of the last
48. 1:37decade. And of course, because of the
49. 1:39rushing contributions of our
50. 1:40quarterbacks, it certainly has
51. 1:41outweighed the quarterbacks who are not
52. 1:43capable of contributing within that
53. 1:45capacity. But when we talk about the
54. 1:46history of fantasy football, this is
55. 1:48something that we saw coming years in
56. 1:50advance. Since 2021, over the course of
57. 1:52the last five seasons, there have been
58. 1:5424 quarterbacks who have scored 350 or
59. 1:57more fantasy points in their given year.
60. 1:5919 of those 24 quarterbacks, 79% of
61. 2:03them, were able to achieve 300 or more
62. 2:05rushing yards in that given year. Again,
63. 2:07the high ceilings that we have seen from
64. 2:09the quarterback position are because of
65. 2:11rushing contributions. There's a reason
66. 2:13why I call Josh Allen the greatest
67. 2:14fantasy football quarterback of all
68. 2:16time. The rushing statistics he puts up
69. 2:18year over year, on top of the
70. 2:19year-by-year consistency of being a top
71. 2:21two quarterback, has led him to be in
72. 2:24that conversation. Now, you may be
73. 2:25thinking, "Okay, well, Andrew, you know,
74. 2:27these quarterbacks achieving 300-plus
75. 2:29rushing yards, it's an incredible feat,
76. 2:31but how does that lead us to success?
77. 2:33Isn't 300 rushing yards just 30 fantasy
78. 2:36points within a given year?" The answer
79. 2:37to that, on the surface level, is yes,
80. 2:39but when we dig deeper, there's far more
81. 2:41value. Now, before we continue, speaking
82. 2:44of digging deeper, for those of you guys
83. 2:45who want to go ahead and have an edge
84. 2:47upon your league mates for the remainder
85. 2:48of the season in your upcoming draft
86. 2:50with my draft rankings, and additionally
87. 2:52my rankings every single Sunday morning
88. 2:54to help you set your lineups. These are
89. 2:55by position, by tier, quarterback,
90. 2:57running back, wide receiver, tight end,
91. 2:59kicker, defense, and flex for both half
92. 3:00and full PPR, with accompanied ADPs in
93. 3:03order to help you make the best
94. 3:04decision, regardless of what platform
95. 3:06you're playing on. Be sure to travel
96. 3:07down to the description of the video
97. 3:08today and check out Parlay Play. We'll
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114. 3:39for those of you who are trying to tail
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126. 4:00much. Okay, let's continue this
127. 4:02conversation. Now, moments ago we were
128. 4:04discussing whether 300 rushing yards
129. 4:06equals a flat 30 fantasy points or if
130. 4:08there was more behind that surface-level
131. 4:11number. When you go ahead and look at
132. 4:12the last five years of fantasy football,
133. 4:142021 to 2025, of the 61 total
134. 4:17quarterbacks that surpassed 265 rushing
135. 4:20yards in their given season, those
136. 4:22quarterbacks averaged 4.87
137. 4:25rushing touchdowns in that season.
138. 4:27Additionally, if you go further beyond
139. 4:29that to quarterbacks who are far more
140. 4:30capable with their legs, of the 32
141. 4:33quarterbacks who surpassed 400 rushing
142. 4:35yards, they were averaging 6.56
143. 4:38rushing touchdowns per season. To
144. 4:39continue with quarterbacks eligible for
145. 4:42500 or more rushing yards, only 18 of
146. 4:44them in the last five seasons, averaging
147. 4:478.33 rushing touchdowns per game. We're
148. 4:50talking about players like Josh Allen,
149. 4:52of course Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts,
150. 4:54Lamar Jackson's of the world, who are
151. 4:56certainly high upside within that
152. 4:58category, but certainly there are going
153. 5:00to be other options outside of that
154. 5:02group that can be a league winner this
155. 5:04upcoming season. Now, the reason why I
156. 5:06wanted to mention this statistic is
157. 5:07because of the value behind the yardage
158. 5:09itself. Even though yes, 265 rushing
159. 5:12yards is 26 and a half fantasy points,
160. 5:14when you take into account these
161. 5:16quarterbacks are averaging 4.87 rushing
162. 5:18touchdowns a season, that's a flat rate
163. 5:21of potentially 55.72
164. 5:24fantasy points per season. So, when we
165. 5:25up the numbers in terms of rushing yards
166. 5:27and rushing touchdowns, of course you
167. 5:29get to 79 and 99 fantasy points per
168. 5:32season for the top end of the
169. 5:34quarterback conversation. Now, when we
170. 5:36look at the history of quarterbacks who
171. 5:38were able to get themselves 500 or more
172. 5:40rushing yards, 83% of them ranked in the
173. 5:43top 10 of their fantasy year over the
174. 5:45course of the last five seasons. The
175. 5:47only three quarterbacks who were not
176. 5:49able to accomplish that weren't healthy
177. 5:51in that given season, being Lamar
178. 5:53Jackson twice and once Justin Fields.
179. 5:55Had they stayed healthy, easily would
180. 5:56have been top 10 if in that category.
181. 5:58And even if we expand that statistic to
182. 6:00the last decade of the National Football
183. 6:02League, there've been 33 quarterbacks
184. 6:04with 500 rushing yards. Five of them did
185. 6:07not play full seasons or were injured.
186. 6:09So, with that in mind, of the 28
187. 6:11quarterbacks who were healthy, had full
188. 6:13seasons, 25 of them, 90% were top 10
189. 6:16ranked within that given year. So, the
190. 6:18question remains, how do we identify
191. 6:19which quarterbacks are going to be
192. 6:21eligible to reaching these levels of
193. 6:23success within the rushing yards and
194. 6:24touchdown category? Well, the only way
195. 6:26that you accumulate said yards and
196. 6:29touchdowns is with rushing attempts. So,
197. 6:32let's talk about the rushing attempt
198. 6:33correlation of the quarterback position.
199. 6:35In 2025, when you compare all
200. 6:37quarterbacks to the mobile quarterbacks
201. 6:40in the National Football League who were
202. 6:42able to average over 16 rushing yards
203. 6:44per game, in which there were 24
204. 6:46quarterbacks that accomplished that last
205. 6:47season, the value of the league average
206. 6:50ends up being .7269
207. 6:52fantasy points per rushing attempt.
208. 6:54While when you specifically only isolate
209. 6:57the mobile quarterbacks, it's .8843
210. 7:00fantasy points per attempt. So, if in
211. 7:02fact you're able to get yourself a high
212. 7:03volume of rushing attempts, of course
213. 7:05the fantasy points are going to flow in.
214. 7:07Since 2021, amongst the quarterbacks who
215. 7:09had 60 rushing attempts in a given year,
216. 7:11while also playing 15 games minimum. So,
217. 7:14basically avoiding injury altogether, 34
218. 7:17of those 39 quarterbacks, 87.2%
219. 7:20of them, achieved a top 12 fantasy
220. 7:23standing. Now, for other quarterbacks
221. 7:25that had themselves an even higher
222. 7:26volume of rushing attempts, we're
223. 7:27talking about 100-plus. Since 2021, of
224. 7:30the quarterbacks that in the same vein
225. 7:32played 15 or more games, avoiding
226. 7:34injury, 100% of them, 16 of 16, ranked
227. 7:38in the top 12. Now, again, if you go
228. 7:40ahead and talk about some of the
229. 7:41quarterbacks that did in fact not play
230. 7:43the full season, missed due to injury,
231. 7:45again once again this is Lamar Jackson
232. 7:47and Justin Fields written all over it as
233. 7:49they of course missed time and of course
234. 7:51were not able to get into the top 12
235. 7:53standings despite their 100 rushing
236. 7:55attempts. But if we can go ahead and
237. 7:56identify a quarterback who can stay
238. 7:58healthy, who can reach these levels of
239. 8:00success not only via rushing attempts
240. 8:02but also the rushing yardage, at least
241. 8:03the touchdowns, and effectively a high
242. 8:05volume of fantasy points, well that
243. 8:07would technically be checking all the
244. 8:09boxes. So let's talk about who checks
245. 8:11all the boxes in 2026. Sure, you may be
246. 8:14thinking Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar
247. 8:17Jackson, but when you talk about their
248. 8:19current ADPs and the draft capital that
249. 8:21you need to utilize in order to have
250. 8:23them on roster in comparison to the rest
251. 8:25of the field that I'm going to mention,
252. 8:27I think these quarterbacks are far more
253. 8:28enticing and can live up to that
254. 8:30league-winning potential because your
255. 8:32investment is far less than of course
256. 8:35the rest of the field. So when we talk
257. 8:36about someone like Jayden Daniels who
258. 8:37currently sitting as ADP 50 2 to 64.1
259. 8:41depending on platform, pretty much a
260. 8:43fifth to sixth round selection. In the
261. 8:45last 23 healthy games he has played with
262. 8:4785 plus percent of the offensive snaps,
263. 8:49whether that be regular or postseason,
264. 8:51averaging 9.65 rushing attempts per
265. 8:53game, 51.13 yards per game, .35
266. 8:57touchdowns per game on the ground, which
267. 8:59all leads to 7.2 fantasy points per
268. 9:01game.
269. 9:02Again, he checks the boxes of being able
270. 9:04to get himself in a full healthy
271. 9:06upcoming season of at least 15 games,
272. 9:08the ability to surpass 100 rushing
273. 9:10attempts and 500 rushing yards. Like I
274. 9:13mentioned earlier, getting to that 100
275. 9:15rushing attempt mark pretty much
276. 9:17guarantees a top 12 standing while the
277. 9:18500 plus rushing yard mark is a top 10
278. 9:21standing. So in the case of someone like
279. 9:23Jayden Daniels, yes, I currently have
280. 9:25him, I mean at least according to the
281. 9:27most recent news of the acquisition of
282. 9:29Stefon Diggs, as my number four overall
283. 9:32quarterback going into the upcoming
284. 9:34season. Does Does mean that he's a
285. 9:35potential league winner? Well, when we
286. 9:37talk about the context of what he can
287. 9:38accomplish, we're looking for a
288. 9:40quarterback that this upcoming season
289. 9:41can accomplish 350 plus fantasy points,
290. 9:45maybe even top the league with 380, 400
291. 9:48fantasy points. If you're looking for
292. 9:50someone who can go far beyond where
293. 9:52their current ADP stands, Jayden Daniels
294. 9:55certainly checks that box. Now, let's
295. 9:57move on to another quarterback who has
296. 9:58incredible potential for upside within
297. 10:00the rushing category, being the year two
298. 10:02quarterback Jackson Dart. Currently in
299. 10:04ADP of 74.9 to 88.8, either a seventh or
300. 10:07eighth round selection depending on
301. 10:09platform. In the last 12 healthy starts
302. 10:12of his career, 7.0 rushing attempts per
303. 10:14game, nearly 41 rushing yards per game,
304. 10:160.75 rushing touchdowns per game,
305. 10:18leading to 8.56 fantasy points per game
306. 10:21from his rushing statistics, which is
307. 10:23more than two passing touchdowns
308. 10:25of equivalency.
309. 10:27Now, when we talk about his overall
310. 10:28potential, he is certainly checking all
311. 10:29the boxes of 100 plus rushing attempts,
312. 10:31500 plus rushing yards, and based on his
313. 10:33current ADP value, yes, there is
314. 10:35inherent risk with mobile quarterbacks
315. 10:37of this capacity because of the concern
316. 10:39of injury, but what he could potentially
317. 10:41accomplish if all of those boxes check
318. 10:44this year, able to stay healthy for 15
319. 10:46plus games, I mean, last year with 12
320. 10:48games under his belt, finished as
321. 10:50quarterback 13 overall. Then we move on
322. 10:53to another quarterback, Kyler Murray,
323. 10:55who currently at an ADP of 110 to 150,
324. 10:58depending on platform, sitting at
325. 11:00around, uh, you know, ninth to 12th
326. 11:02round selection, technically speaking.
327. 11:04In the last 18 starts of his career,
328. 11:065.06 attempts per game, 32.28
329. 11:09rushing yards per game, 0.33 rushing
330. 11:11touchdowns for 5.23 fantasy points per
331. 11:14game. He doesn't check the box going
332. 11:17into this upcoming season based on what
333. 11:18he did in Arizona over the course of the
334. 11:20last two years of being someone who is
335. 11:22capable of 100 plus rushing attempts,
336. 11:24even though we have seen it in the past,
337. 11:26he'll have to unlock that this upcoming
338. 11:28season based on what he has done of
339. 11:29late. He is certainly on track for that
340. 11:31500 rushing yard pace, which certainly
341. 11:34can get him into that top 10 to 12
342. 11:36conversation, but it's not as strong as
343. 11:38the prior two quarterbacks I mentioned.
344. 11:39Therefore, of course, the ADP discount
345. 11:42you get on Kyler Murray is far more
346. 11:44significant.
347. 11:45Then we talk about one of my favorite
348. 11:46quarterbacks going into the given year.
349. 11:48Malik Willis. The free agent quarterback
350. 11:50who signed as the new starting
351. 11:52quarterback of the Miami Dolphins has an
352. 11:54opportunity to break fantasy football
353. 11:56this season. From 2024 to 2025 and in
354. 12:00the three starts in which he had with
355. 12:01the Green Bay Packers, averaging seven
356. 12:03attempts per game, 58 rushing yards per
357. 12:05game, one rushing touchdown per game,
358. 12:0711.8 fantasy points per game via rushing
359. 12:09statistics isolated. Even if you include
360. 12:11the week 16 game of last season, once in
361. 12:14fact Jordan Love left the game due to
362. 12:15injury against the Chicago Bears, we saw
363. 12:18Malik Willis come into the game as the
364. 12:20backup quarterback, played 64% of the
365. 12:21snaps, and have 10 rushing attempts for
366. 12:2344 rushing yards in that overall
367. 12:25expansion of time. So, if you include
368. 12:27those four games as a whole, 218 total
369. 12:30rushing yards, 92 of which were from
370. 12:33designed runs, 126 of which were
371. 12:35scrambles. This is a quarterback that is
372. 12:37certainly with the team that surrounds
373. 12:40him currently in Miami more than capable
374. 12:42of 100-plus rushing attempts, 500-plus
375. 12:44rushing yards, and being able to meet
376. 12:46that floor of a top 12 potential
377. 12:48quarterback. The question is, can his
378. 12:50arm do enough to get him to the dance?
379. 12:53Because that's purely the only thing
380. 12:55that will be holding him back
381. 12:56considering the weapons that surround
382. 12:58him, but certainly has the possibility
383. 13:00of being a league winner when it's all
384. 13:02said and done. Now, the final
385. 13:04quarterback I wanted to mention is Tyler
386. 13:06Shuck. Sure, he may not have the ability
387. 13:08to reach that 100 rushing attempt marker
388. 13:11or 500 rushing yards based on his
389. 13:13averages last year post by week. From
390. 13:15weeks 12 on, averaging 5.29 attempts, 25
391. 13:18rushing yards per game, 0.43 rushing
392. 13:20touchdowns, over five fantasy points per
393. 13:22game via rushing statistics. In the
394. 13:24event in which we we to see him play a
395. 13:25full season, we're talking about
396. 13:27probably 80 rushing attempts, over 420
397. 13:30rushing yards,
398. 13:31you know, handful of touchdowns to say
399. 13:33the least, which makes him a very
400. 13:34intriguing prospect. Yes, maybe not
401. 13:36going to reach these levels, but maybe
402. 13:39if in fact the Saints, like I've
403. 13:40mentioned before, can be the dark horse
404. 13:42to win
405. 13:43the NFC South, perhaps per maybe he can
406. 13:46be a top 15 to 12 quarterback this
407. 13:49upcoming season because of course the
408. 13:50contributions on the ground. Now, like I
409. 13:52mentioned before, since 2016 in the last
410. 13:55decade of fantasy football, 33
411. 13:57quarterbacks have had a 500 or more
412. 13:59rushing yards.
413. 14:01Again, of those 28 healthy quarterbacks,
414. 14:0325 of which
415. 14:0590% ranked in the top 10. So, if in fact
416. 14:09these quarterbacks are capable of
417. 14:10reaching that level of upside, expect
418. 14:13for a lot of change up within the top 12
419. 14:15rankings of the quarterback position.
420. 14:17So, you may be wondering, "Well, Andrew,
421. 14:18this season the quarterback position,
422. 14:20there's just so much depth. It's
423. 14:22stacked. Why are we talking about such
424. 14:23obscure options as league winners?"
425. 14:25Well, let's talk about the yearly
426. 14:27turnover at the quarterback position. In
427. 14:29the last decade, 2016 to 2025,
428. 14:32quarterbacks who have ranked in the top
429. 14:3412 the following season, we have seen 33
430. 14:38of the 120 quarterbacks, only 38% of
431. 14:41quarterbacks had an increase in fantasy
432. 14:43point production the following year. And
433. 14:45additionally, on top of it, only 65 of
434. 14:48the 120 quarterbacks we're talking about
435. 14:51returned to the top 12 their following
436. 14:53season. That's a 54% return rate. And
437. 14:57the reason why I have guys like Josh
438. 14:58Allen and Patrick Mahomes on screen is
439. 15:00because if you exclude them within that
440. 15:02most recent stat I mentioned, they
441. 15:04account for 13 of those 65
442. 15:07performances. Therefore, if you remove
443. 15:10those two automatic top 12 contributors
444. 15:13over the course of the last seven years,
445. 15:16we're talking about a 43% success rate
446. 15:19in terms of top 12 returns
447. 15:21from the quarterback position. Now, to
448. 15:23further prove the overall turnover at
449. 15:25the quarterback position, let's focus on
450. 15:272024 to 2025 in this QB run-heavy era.
451. 15:30Six of 24 quarterbacks returned having
452. 15:33more fantasy points scored the next
453. 15:35year. Again, only 25% of them.
454. 15:3713 of those 24 quarterbacks returning to
455. 15:40a top 12 standing. 54% once again. And
456. 15:44again, if I remove Mahomes and Josh
457. 15:46Allen,
458. 15:47you know the deal.
459. 15:48The reality of the situation is I want
460. 15:50you guys to know these statistics as you
461. 15:52navigate your upcoming drafts. Make sure
462. 15:54you understand the true value of a
463. 15:56rushing attempt from the quarterback
464. 15:57position and utilize your draft capital
465. 15:59wisely because there are certainly going
466. 16:01to be quarterbacks out there that yes,
467. 16:03may not have the biggest names, may have
468. 16:05inherent risk because of injury history,
469. 16:08but additionally on top of it, may not
470. 16:10be valued where they truly should be
471. 16:12because of the upside that we
472. 16:13potentially foresee. It reminds me of
473. 16:16what I saw last season in guys like
474. 16:17Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. The
475. 16:19potential was there, the vision is
476. 16:20there, and that's what we're hoping to
477. 16:22accomplish this season. All right,
478. 16:24that's going to cover for me today.
479. 16:25Thank you everybody for watching. If you
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497. 16:53everybody for watching and until next
498. 16:54time, I'll see you guys. Peace.
499. 16:57>> [music]
500. 17:05[music]