YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → The Midterms Just Destroyed the AI Trade?

The Midterms Just Destroyed the AI Trade? — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 12,325 words · 1,761 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00progress is moving faster than humans
0:02can handle it. And those humans are
0:04government. Those humans are the
0:05companies that have lots of people. When
0:07Microsoft says they're going to get
0:09offer buyouts to 27% of their employees,
0:13how is that not like a major warning
0:15sign that we have reached a level
0:17[music] where this has never happened
0:19before and they're offering for 27% of
0:21the people in the company to go. This is
0:24a very kind of dystop dystopian time
0:26that's only going to get worse going
0:28forward. What's going on guys? Today we
0:29got a great conversation with Jordi
0:30Visser. In this conversation we talk
0:32about the midterm elections. What's
0:33going on with the AI slowdown slash the
0:35crash that happened this week in your
0:37portfolio. How is he thinking about
0:38Bitcoin, crypto, oil, stocks, and much
0:41more? And then we get into a very
0:43interesting idea that maybe the S&P 500
0:45is made up of 492 bonds and eight call
0:48options. And that is going to be a part
0:49of the conversation you really want to
0:50pay attention to. And then we go around
0:52the news and all the different current
0:53events. We talk about some things that
0:55we used AI for this week. We even throw
0:56in a couple of memes and jokes that'll
0:58get you laughing. So, here's my latest
0:59conversation with Jordy Visser. All
1:02right, Jordy, the midterm elections
1:03happened this week. It was a blue wave
1:05for the ages. Now, people are freaking
1:07out. There was a big sell-off in the
1:09stock market through the end of the
1:10week. What's your take?
1:14>> This is not what hedge funds wanted. Um,
1:17it's not what my portfolio wanted
1:19either. But, um, first of all, the the
1:22Democrats were favored to win going into
1:24it. So, it wasn't the outcome of the
1:26Senate. Uh, it was the extent of the
1:29damage, it was Texas and the surprise
1:34because Abbott was over 60% going into
1:36it. But I I think the story um rather
1:39than get into people's fears over what
1:42this will mean, I don't really think it
1:45has a huge impact on next year from
1:47what'll be built. Uh, most of the things
1:50that are already under construction will
1:52get finished. I think the fear for
1:54people really comes from number one this
1:57is a tangible thing to make the next two
2:01years slower.
2:04Uh for sure regulations will get heavier
2:06in certain states and those states are
2:08important. There's no way having a new
2:09governor in Texas won't slow down the
2:11process of getting it done. So, uh, to a
2:14degree we were living in a world where
2:17when you have all of the major tech
2:18people on inauguration day in the
2:22presence of the president and then you
2:24have this happen, I I wouldn't say it's
2:27too surprising that the market on the AI
2:29side or the tech side in general is is
2:31not happy. Uh, for me, I don't think
2:33this changes the demand side of compute.
2:36I don't think it changes the fact that
2:38the stocks had already discounted this.
2:40Uh, and when I say they've already
2:42discounted this, we're significantly off
2:44the highs in most of these stocks. Uh, I
2:47can tell you from the ones that I still
2:48had left, plus the ones I started adding
2:50a couple weeks ago, of which I've added
2:52more this week, I have yet to make a
2:54purchase that isn't lower than it was
2:56when I made the purchase over the course
2:58of the last couple months. Uh so it's
3:01been a problem but we've been talking a
3:03lot about deleveraging and I've made
3:06some bold statements which I'll keep
3:09saying which is the peak of hedge fund
3:11leverage has passed. We will never ever
3:13ever again be as levered as we were
3:17in dollar terms overall. Um there's
3:20rumors today uh we're recording this on
3:23Thursday. There's rumors today of a
3:25couple hedge funds being at least their
3:27equity business being shut down, but
3:29bigger uh bigger stories floating around
3:31coming my way. But today is kind of the
3:34first day that I would say there's a
3:37liberation day type panic selling.
3:40Uh and for me that just means that after
3:43going through what's effectively been we
3:45peaked in early June we've given back uh
3:48depending on the name the overall my
3:50agentic portfolio has given back over
3:5260% of the gains that had happened from
3:55uh the beginning of the year till then
3:57there's still it's still less than that
3:59from a year ago from when Opus 4.5 came
4:03out but we have done significant damage
4:05on the AI trade and I think the way
4:07people should think about it going
4:09forward
4:10uh when I've talked about the
4:11difficulties that all public stocks will
4:13have by 2030 and the fact that I think
4:16the growth of pretty much all public
4:18companies will be done and they will
4:21effectively become as Mark Andre has
4:24said bonds um and that's what we're in
4:27uh we haven't talked about this before
4:28but I'm writing a paper on you may be
4:31interested in this this will be good for
4:32you but
4:33>> I would love to understand what you mean
4:35by growth of public companies will be
4:37done by 2030 30.
4:39>> Yeah, I think all all companies that
4:41have large groups of people will be
4:45disrupted by AI. I think this is a world
4:48headed through tokenization through um
4:51small entrepreneurship
4:54that the government what's happened in
4:56the midterms and the most important
4:58thing for people to take away do you
5:00believe that AI progress will only go up
5:02from here?
5:03>> Of course.
5:04>> Okay. So that means cyber risk will go,
5:06terror risk will increase, job
5:09replacement will increase. Companies
5:12that have a monopoly on this stuff that
5:14have margins that are enormous that are
5:16firing people. The labor verse capital
5:18situation will worsen.
5:20>> If you're a big public company, you're
5:22targeted via cyber. You're targeted via
5:24government intervention. You're targeted
5:26the public companies, the big ones. I
5:29don't think there'll be any growth. So
5:31Mark Andre made this comment two years
5:33ago which I'm writing a paper on. He
5:35said everything in the S&P 500 is
5:37basically 492 are bonds. Eight of them
5:41are call options
5:43which is exactly what I believe.
5:45Starting when AI took off, the eight
5:48biggest companies became a mad race to
5:50dominate AI. Larry Page publicly said or
5:54Gavin Baker said for Larry Page on an
5:56interview, I'll bankrupt this company in
5:59the race to AGI. We don't talk about AGI
6:02as being this winner one takes winner
6:04thing anymore. So my whole belief has
6:06been and this is the reason why I
6:08believe in Bitcoin is that there are no
6:09more moes and that when your business
6:11gets there, it's not that you won't be a
6:13$5 trillion company, but growth comes
6:17from a lack of government involvement.
6:19It comes from multiple expansion. It
6:21comes from all of those things. We're
6:24starting to see the the negatives of of
6:26AI this year and I think it's only going
6:27to worsen.
6:28>> All right. There's a lot to unpack here.
6:30So, let's start first with 492 bonds in
6:33the S&P 500. Can you unpack like does
6:36that just mean they trade basically at
6:37whatever the inflation rate is? Does
6:39that mean that you get inflation plus
6:41something? Like what would your
6:42expectation be for the 492 bonds?
6:45>> That is pretty much about what Mark
6:47Andre is saying. And if you go through
6:49the rest of the world, that's been about
6:51what's been happening. Um, if you go to
6:54Europe, their stock market has done
6:56nothing since 2007. You go to emerging
6:58markets, it's done nothing. You go
6:59through most of the world, it goes
7:02through, I mean, a 20-year period where
7:05you get less than inflation. So, that's
7:09been happening. If you're a loser to AI,
7:12mall stocks, like all of these things,
7:14Ford, GM, I joke about them. They're
7:16still companies. They still make
7:17products that people buy, but they're
7:18not growth. So, if you look out over a
7:21decade and you've owned Ford, what would
7:23you expect your annualized return to be?
7:25Are you thinking you're going to get S&P
7:28or are you thinking you're going to get
7:29S&P minus 3, four, five? So, what Mark
7:33said is that in the world of AI, which I
7:35agree with, all companies are going to
7:37be disrupted. They can't reinvent
7:39themselves. So, part of his argument is
7:41AI native businesses have a huge
7:43advantage. They grow. They grow rapidly,
7:47but they also run into competition
7:49eventually as well. Founders don't need
7:52there to be growth if their business is
7:54making money every single year, right?
7:57Like if you're taking most of the money
7:59if you're bringing in, isn't that
8:01effectively what a salary is to some
8:02degree? You're hoping you get inflation
8:05plus, but a salary is a number and then
8:07you're hoping it grows in in some way
8:09when you first get the job. If you're a
8:10founder of a business and you have to
8:12sell off part of your business, the
8:13question is was it a good choice to make
8:15the sale? So Dario has created the most
8:17valuable company in the world and how
8:18much does he own of it? We're starting
8:20to see that pressure growing which was
8:22what Mark was talking about. And I think
8:24the eight call options which are the Mag
8:257, they're being forced to spend an
8:28enormous amount of money for this
8:30massive payoff that may or may not
8:32happen. So if you think where Nebius is,
8:34where Corewave is, what how would you
8:36price them? They're effectively
8:38bonds. They're not call options because
8:41I don't think they can grow up 10 times.
8:43Um I thought the infrastructure trades
8:45and I still believe that the
8:46infrastructure trade will create S&P
8:48plus returns but only for the next 2
8:51years, 3 years and then eventually
8:52efficiency gains and everything else
8:54will come in. So there's very few
8:56companies that you can say to me are
8:58going to have a business that can out
9:00compete anyone. If you told me SpaceX
9:02because they're doing something
9:03differently, that's great. But SpaceX is
9:06going to have a lot of government
9:07involvement in terms of them. And in
9:09fact that might he might be the company
9:10the biggest target in the world right
9:11now with what's happening. So I think
9:13people have to start to realize that
9:15this election
9:17the midterms take us to 2028
9:21that's two more years of AI that's two
9:24more years of a massive progress
9:25acceleration where we're going to see
9:27pressure on jobs. I just think people
9:29have to start thinking about this for
9:30public stocks that way.
9:31>> The call options you said there's eight
9:33mag seven plus SpaceX. Yeah.
9:35>> Is that the same thing? Okay. Um, now
9:37you mentioned that the 492 bonds would
9:40be S&P minus some number. If that's the
9:44case, does the S&P become uninvestable?
9:48I mean, we've talked about it. The
9:49reason that I'm interested in Bitcoin is
9:51because I'm looking for things that are
9:54benefiting from growth that is going to
9:56happen, of which there's going to be
9:58difficulty for competition. So, the
9:59first thing is the crypto ecosystem.
10:01There's no doubt in my mind that
10:02tokenization that aentic commerce that
10:05all of those things are going to happen
10:06over the course of the next two years.
10:08Um the one thing the data center
10:10moratorum
10:12that may create doubt in terms of you
10:14know 2028 and this but I've never been a
10:18believer that all of that compute that
10:21was necessary down the line. We don't
10:23know how much of it will be necessary.
10:25We just we just don't we don't know the
10:27progress on the models. We don't know
10:29when we're going to reach certain
10:30levels. I have people that are very
10:33smart on the tech side that swear to me,
10:36oh no, we won't need memory in 3 years.
10:38We blah blah blah. I don't believe any
10:40of that stuff, but I do believe
10:42competition is coming. I think the
10:43Chinese are coming. I think other places
10:45are going. I think there's tremendous
10:46amounts of manufacturing and innovation
10:48that's happening. And I don't think we
10:49know what problems AI can solve. So, uh,
10:51I do think over the course of the next 3
10:53years, crypto is something that is a
10:55growth that should benefit Bitcoin. But
10:57then the other thing about Bitcoin is I
11:00do believe in in this this world.
11:02[snorts]
11:03Uh you want to find something where
11:05money goes into that's growing. Bitcoin
11:08doesn't have the hurdles
11:11that stocks do. So you got to remember
11:12you've been doing this for a long time
11:14with Bitcoin.
11:16It's been under attack
11:19for the entire time.
11:20>> Correct.
11:22>> Public companies are going to be under
11:24attack. So the last 12 years I would say
11:29the mag seven or the hyperscalers or
11:31whatever you whichever one you want to
11:32do it both parties at some point were
11:35against them being so big even Trump to
11:39some degree the problem is we need the
11:40AI buildout so it's very hard to stop
11:42them from it if you believe in the
11:43political side which is why I think the
11:45current administration has focused on
11:47the race against AI but I think going
11:50forward this is not just government
11:52involvement
11:54AI is an incredibly disruptive force.
11:57You and I both have businesses that are
11:59built on AI where we're shocked at how
12:01few people we need to build the
12:03business. I think it's very very
12:06challenging when you have something that
12:07very few people are using and they're
12:09not using it because AI is hated in this
12:11country. It is absolutely hated and more
12:14and more that's become evident to me. Um
12:16the voting AI was not popular. data
12:20centers was not as big a story as
12:22affordability, but the distribution of
12:24wealth is a big story and that again
12:25gets attached to AI. So I just think
12:27anyone that doesn't believe that
12:28there'll be government involvement,
12:29we've already seen it with Intel, we've
12:31seen it open up with open AI and
12:34anthropic in terms of what it would be
12:35and we're seeing already them involved
12:36more and more. I just think when the
12:38government gets involved in public
12:40markets, you can't expect the same types
12:41of returns. based on what you're saying
12:43is if the public markets are essentially
12:46uninvestable or getting close to that,
12:48why not put all of your money in
12:50Bitcoin? Like what keeps you from just
12:52concentrating in your best idea?
12:55>> Well, you mean me personally?
12:57>> Just as an investor, right? Like forget
12:59your exact portfolio, but just Okay. by
13:01process of elimination. If housing is
13:04not going to drive a return in real
13:05estate, if you know the largest
13:07companies in America are not going to
13:08drive uh a return, if AI is going to
13:11come under pressure because of the blue
13:13wave, you kind of end up with there's
13:15only so many assets and if Bitcoin is
13:17the thing that you feel like is best
13:19insulated and best positioned,
13:22how do you stop putting money in? Like
13:23at what point do you say, "Hey, I
13:24shouldn't put more money into this in my
13:26portfolio. Why not all of it?" So,
13:28Bitcoin is is, you know, a trillion and
13:30a half, trillion7
13:32asset. Uh, it's still doubted by almost
13:37everyone who has the money.
13:39>> Um, we've seen such a dramatic shift in
13:41the last 12 months in terms of the
13:44banks. I mean, first it was the
13:45government saying, "We're all in on
13:47Bitcoin."
13:48>> Now, you have all the banks basically
13:50bending over backwards to basically be
13:52all in on selling people Bitcoin. So,
13:55we've seen some things happen in the
13:56last two years with the ETF, with
13:58everything where greed eventually sets
13:59in. These are the people selling things.
14:02The outstanding shares for the Bitcoin
14:04ETF hit new all-time highs despite the
14:07fact that we are significantly off the
14:09all-time highs, which means wealth
14:11managers are still putting money in
14:13there. Uh because as a diversification,
14:16I I think it's legitimate. Now, you and
14:18I talked about some of the headwinds for
14:20Bitcoin in the beginning part of this
14:22year. Um, I did a video today. Uh, I
14:25don't know if you got a chance to see
14:26it, but I sent it to you. [snorts] But
14:28there's a bunch of things in there which
14:29kind of fit in with this story in the
14:32bigger picture. Uh,
14:34number one, I think with the midterms,
14:36we've eliminated the the bubble risk,
14:40which sounds funny when the market's
14:41going down, but my argument would be
14:44there isn't a bubble risk yet because we
14:46haven't done enough of the debt. We
14:47haven't done enough of the spending yet.
14:51If there was a macro event which slowed
14:53down the demand side or something
14:55happened in the next couple years and
14:56these guys spent more and more money, I
14:58think it would be an issue. But if we're
14:59all believing that they're not going to
15:01spend as much money for 2028, well then
15:03that would mean that capex would
15:04probably be less next year. They've
15:07already started on the stuff that'll
15:08happen now. If they're worried about
15:092028, maybe there'll be a delay and that
15:12would be good for the bubble risk,
15:14meaning it would push out the buildout
15:15further and further and that would be
15:17good. Second thing is there'd be less
15:19capital needed. That's put enormous
15:21pressure on rates to go higher. Second
15:23thing is if people believe that the
15:25market is going to go down and there's
15:26going to be less of a buildout and Brad
15:27Gersner says this is 50 basis points off
15:29GDP. Well then that means that growth
15:31will come down which means rates should
15:33come down. At the same time, one of the
15:35contributors to inflation this year has
15:37been DRAM prices. DRM prices have
15:39already peaked uh not in terms of their
15:42actual price but in their growth rate.
15:44They're in a negative declining
15:46year-over-year growth rate right now.
15:47And that's only going to get worse as we
15:49go through the year because the biggest
15:50portion of the gains happen really from
15:52September to March. So by the time we
15:54get to March, you're going to start
15:56seeing the base effects kick in. The
15:58base effects are going to kick in for
15:59oil because now you have oil down at
16:01levels. You're getting gas at the pump
16:03down. Uh we have the tariffs rolling
16:05off. So when you go through everything,
16:06a lot of those things were negatives for
16:08Bitcoin this year. They were negatives
16:09for gold because they were all related
16:11to liquidity. And I think the liquidity
16:14headwinds are going to drop off. And
16:15that's what I did in the video uh to
16:17just highlight to people that maybe
16:19something good comes out of this for
16:20Bitcoin. But the biggest thing is the
16:22volatility and the lack of certainty on
16:25AI going forward. So again, June
16:29firework shows over. We're never again
16:31going to see what we saw in the first
16:32half for the Agentic Compute trade. From
16:35that point on, it's going to have to be
16:36a grind. We've seen hedge fund
16:38deleveraging. I think this is all part
16:40of the bigger script. I think AI is
16:42causing this and I think it will
16:43continue to cause a disruption from
16:44politics, a disruption in bottlenecks, a
16:46disruption in all of these different
16:47things and I think people have to start
16:49to think about adjusting their
16:51portfolios and I do think that that is
16:52what's going to play out over the course
16:54of the next 5 years. Today's episode is
16:56brought to you by Figure. The holidays
16:57are here and our partner Figure is
16:59feeling thankful. If you want to earn up
17:01to $1,250 for Thanksgiving, they're
17:04running a promo for the entire month of
17:06November where you're rewarded for
17:07completing a cryptobacked loan. From
17:09November 1st to November 30th, any user
17:12who've never completed a cryptoback loan
17:14with them can qualify. So check out the
17:15link in my bio for more information and
17:17go see if you want to use Figure for a
17:19Cryptoback loan. [music] We're living in
17:20a world of higher for longer rates,
17:22tighter credit, and fewer places to earn
17:24real yield. That's why Figure is
17:26interesting. Figure is the largest
17:28non-bank heliloc lender in the United
17:29States with [music] over $22 billion
17:31unlocked for homeowners. They're now
17:33applying that same concept and
17:35innovation to cryptoback loans and
17:36realworld asset yield. If you're holding
17:39crypto, which many of you are, Figure
17:41let you borrow against it at 8.91%
17:44[music] interest. That's 9.9% APR. And
17:47it's got a 50% loan to value. It gives
17:50you liquidity without selling, without
17:52triggering taxes, [music] and without
17:53stepping out of the market. They use a
17:55decentralized MPC custody so assets stay
17:58in segregated wallets protected from rug
18:00poles. And they've [music] introduced
18:02liquidation protection to help manage
18:04downside volatility. And for investors
18:06looking for yield, [music] Democratized
18:08Prime offers up to 9% APY paid hourly
18:11backed by realworld private credit. Real
18:14cash flows, not speculative token
18:16emissions. Figures building a new
18:18capital market on blockchain. Now you
18:20have [music] access to the upside. Check
18:22them out using the link in the
18:24description. Go to figuremarkets.co/pop.
18:25[music]
18:29All right. So, there's two things in
18:30this video that I think are uh
18:31important. When I was watching it, and I
18:34was watching I got a I got a late start
18:35on this video right before we came in
18:37here. So, I was watching on two speed 2x
18:39speed, which you know, you're not
18:40exactly the uh prime candidate to be
18:42listening to a YouTube video on 2x
18:43speed, but um the liquidity pressures
18:47kind of easing has almost served as I've
18:49heard people describe it as like a like
18:50a beach ball underwater, right? And so,
18:52it's been putting these pressures. You
18:54one think that they're easing, but then
18:56also two is uh you've been looking via
18:58an Elliot wave type uh type analysis. I
19:02don't know anything about Elliot waves.
19:03I know they exist. I know that you
19:04probably are uh an expert in
19:06understanding these things. So maybe
19:08help us understand like how do these two
19:09things line up in terms of liquidity
19:11environment getting much more attractive
19:13for Bitcoin and then what is the Elliot
19:15wave analysis telling us? All right. So
19:17the things I mentioned on the liquidity
19:19you have to remember. So real yields
19:21went extremely high this year. So so
19:24people understand the difference between
19:25saying tenure rates went higher and real
19:27tenure rates. Tenure rates went higher.
19:31inflation expectations did not. [snorts]
19:34So, let me repeat that. We saw bond
19:35yields go higher, but inflation
19:37expectations actually went down since
19:39March.
19:41So, you've had this scenario that when
19:43you're using inflation swaps or
19:45inflation expectations, you've taken
19:47real reads, real rates up to big high
19:49levels. Now, what's happened in the last
19:51week, we've seen another significant
19:53drop in inflation expectations. two one
19:56year and two-year inflation expectations
19:58are lower than where they started this
20:00year and that's because of the oil price
20:03that's come down. I don't think enough
20:05has been said about what happened this
20:07week. The fact that oil fell I mean
20:10Brent crude was down $20 in 3 days
20:15and that happened right before the
20:16election and I've talked to a bunch of
20:18macro people and I'm surprised that
20:20people didn't realize that okay Iran
20:25basically this week [snorts]
20:29seemed like they were the ones for the
20:31first time that said, "Hey, we're ready
20:32to talk." I'm I'm Kamani is giving the
20:35okay for them to have conversations.
20:38So, the price falls. Every time the
20:40price has fallen this year, it's been
20:42Donald Trump basically saying, "Yeah,
20:44there's going to be a deal." And then
20:45there'd never be a deal. This time, it
20:47was the Iranians that basically did this
20:49and the oil price dropped. And I think
20:51that's probably because they held out
20:52for as long as they possibly could. They
20:54got their
20:56blue tsunami and now they get to play
20:59from a negotiation in their mind of
21:01strength. Um the vice president is now
21:03on a different page than the president
21:04and he's got to start preparing for the
21:06election 2028. So the oil prices come
21:09down and those types of things, real
21:11yields,
21:13oil, they've had a big impact. The Fed
21:15raising rates, we went from expectations
21:17of rate cuts at the beginning of the
21:19year to significant rate hikes not just
21:22this year but into next year. And so I
21:24highlighted that that's been correlated.
21:26These are all negatives for gold.
21:27They're all negative for Bitcoin in
21:29terms of the liquidity side. The only
21:32reason that I think people were
21:33disappointed is because the AI trade was
21:34trading better. The NASDAQ was up. But
21:37now you've got the NASDAQ down. You've
21:39got rates falling. You've got oil
21:41falling. So I know this is hard for
21:43people to do. It was easy in people's
21:46minds to go invest in the AI trade in
21:48May and June because it was working and
21:50now they don't want to buy anything. The
21:52reason I said I haven't made a purchase
21:54yet in the last two weeks that's up on
21:56money.
21:58There's no way to buy the bottom of
21:59this. I I don't I I don't think I also
22:02think the AI trade is real and this
22:03isn't a bubble. So by not having a
22:05bubble unwind and by feeling the
22:07liquidity is good for the Elliot wave.
22:09Elliot wave theory is a very um it's the
22:11technical analysis I chose. I chose it
22:13because of Paul Tudtor Jones and Stan
22:15Ducken Miller when I read a book that
22:16they were both quoted in where they said
22:18this was the book at least Paul said he
22:20read it every single year. Stan said he
22:22as I got to know both of them. Elliot
22:25wave is just such a beautiful art form
22:27for markets. The theory behind it is
22:29from I think his name is Rin Elliot.
22:31[snorts] Um but he was basically a an
22:35accountant who decided he was going to
22:37study all of the chart patterns of
22:39stocks and think of it as coming up with
22:42the way that stocks move because at the
22:45end of the day they are human
22:46psychology. And what he found was that
22:49they moved upward in impulsive moves and
22:51then there'd be a correction where it
22:53would kind of go sideways, then they'd
22:55go up powerfully again and they'd go
22:57sideways and it would go and everything
22:58moved in kind of fives and threes. So,
23:01the thing I showed you on the video, um,
23:03Bitcoin's move from the lows back really
23:06in June into early July and then up to
23:09where we just peaked, that was five
23:11waves, and now we've seen a three-wave
23:13correction that is almost textbook
23:15getting now down to the 200 day moving
23:17average, which is right around the 7374
23:19area. So, everything looks good,
23:22assuming that the equity market is going
23:24to find a low. The other thing I showed
23:26in there is there are some signals I'm
23:27looking for in the equity market which
23:29haven't triggered yet, but we're closer
23:30to them today than we were when I did
23:32the video this morning.
23:34>> All right, so um there's two other
23:35aspects here that I think are
23:36interesting. Uh we have talked a lot
23:38about the intersection of AI, Bitcoin,
23:41and crypto. Um I think that if there's
23:43one person in the world that could be
23:44boiled down to living at that
23:46intersection, building a house at that
23:47intersection, building a skyrise at that
23:50intersection, it is you. You have the
23:51foundation, you have the streets, you've
23:53got the street sign. It is called Jordy
23:55Visser way. Um,
23:58you're talking about AI speed headwind
24:01for crypto. The faster the AI thing
24:03went, the more that it sucked the air
24:05out of the room for crypto. If now it
24:08appears both through midterm elections,
24:10some of these other components, there is
24:12some headwinds for AI or at least some
24:14difficulty ahead. Is it as simple as
24:17like rotate back to crypto or do you
24:20think that both of them keep some sort
24:23of correlation that people get worried
24:24about like the NASDAQ and Bitcoin, you
24:26know, trading similarly?
24:29>> So here here's my thought on on this and
24:32I showed this in the video. Um,
24:36Bitcoin
24:38is has been this year fairly correlated
24:40to the NASDAQ over the S&P. NASDAQ over
24:44the S&P is another way of saying beta
24:47verse quality. So beta meaning faster
24:50moving stuff NASDAQ verse quality the
24:52S&P 500. Uh
24:56I think that's still going to hold. So
24:57what you have to remember is things can
24:59stay correlated but better returns can
25:01happen in this. If if the NASDAQ goes up
25:0510% a year but Bitcoin goes up 50% a
25:07year. If I would have said to you,
25:09NASDAQ goes up 10% a year and I said,
25:11"Hey, based on your brain and where this
25:13is, what do what do you think Bitcoin
25:15would do?" Most people would say 15 or
25:1620. It probably has, you know, one and a
25:19half to three times level. It used to be
25:21three, maybe it's two now, so 20% a
25:23year. I actually think when the true
25:25trade happens,
25:27people get frustrated by things that are
25:29not growing anymore the way that they
25:30used to. Or, and this is what's happened
25:33this year, Bitcoin's volatility has
25:35stayed around 30 for basically the whole
25:37year. I mean, when I came in here, like
25:41I mean, I think Nvidia was down about
25:4310% today. Micron was down more than
25:4610%. The S&P like you're getting moves
25:49where the volatility with inside the AI
25:51trade is so much higher than Bitcoin.
25:54And this was not the case before. So,
25:57the reason this wasn't the case is
25:59because of the hyperscalers. So, I just
26:01want to make sure people realize this
26:02with the Mag 7. The Mag 7 has had
26:06significant well at least the
26:07hyperscalers. So Meta, Amazon, Google,
26:10Microsoft, they've all in the last 12
26:12months, all of them had 10% falls in a
26:16day. Amazon is the only one that didn't
26:18do it exactly in a day, but it was
26:20pretty close and it would definitely did
26:22it over two days. But regardless of
26:24that, these things have had huge falls
26:27in one day. They've also had tremendous
26:30volatility and they've been basically
26:32around flat going up and down for most
26:35of the year. These were the kind of
26:36names you just own. What I said about
26:38call options before. When you start
26:41spending tons of money, you are taking
26:43lots of risk. If the Democrats slow down
26:47the ability for these companies to get
26:49their data centers done, well, that
26:51hurts their revenues because they have a
26:52backlog. At the same time, when you read
26:55what the new governor of Texas has said,
26:59she did not say she hated data centers.
27:02She basically said before a data center
27:04will go up, I want to make sure that the
27:06the people financing this are paying the
27:09people like there's a cost that's going
27:11to go higher. This is not just a tax
27:14from memory. This is a tax from you're
27:16going to make sure water's taken care
27:18of. You're going to make sure
27:18electricity is taken care of.
27:21They're going to do that anyway, but it
27:22does come at the expense of margins. And
27:24so when you go through all of this, I
27:26just think the headwinds on public tech
27:29companies we've learned about this year.
27:31One thing I can say with certainty to
27:32everyone watching this, there will never
27:35be a time where you will be able to go 3
27:37months without some risk that makes this
27:40question that happened with the midterms
27:41rise to the surface again. bubble risk,
27:44um, someone defaulting,
27:47uh, the open- source models being able
27:51to compete on price. You guys, you and I
27:54have talked about a lot of these issues.
27:56This has been a year of a lot of
27:58headwinds in AI, which I don't think
28:00anyone with certainty can say, "No, no,
28:02we'll get over all of these." It's a
28:04very different world than it was before.
28:05And I'll I'll finish with this. All
28:07someone needs to do is go look at 2010
28:10to 2019 and look at a chart of the
28:13hyperscalers and really the mag 7. This
28:16was based on SAS.
28:18The one thing about SAS is it was a
28:22growth thing that was just happening
28:24every single quarter. There were very
28:26little times to worry. There were very
28:27little volatile shocks. It was a fairly
28:29boring period. You also had zero
28:32interest rate policy. People got used to
28:34that. Hedge fund managers got used to
28:36that. the people that made the most
28:37money from 2010 to 2022. They rode this
28:40SAS train. It's gotten much more
28:42difficult over the course of the last,
28:45you know, two years, three years since
28:47the rate hikes. I don't think rates are
28:49going to go falling down. I also don't
28:51think that the headwinds are going to be
28:53gone from AI. So, if you're investing in
28:54this stuff, you're becoming a trader
28:56whether you like it or not. You can
28:58invest in the S&P 500, but like I said,
29:00this has been a very bad year for the
29:01S&P 500 relative to earnings. It might
29:03be one of the worst in history with
29:05where we stand now. We're no longer up
29:07double digits, but earnings are growing
29:10close to 30%. So multiples have
29:12compressed and that is the market saying
29:14to me, yeah, these headwinds are getting
29:15to be a problem for equity growth.
29:18>> Okay. If that is true, you mentioned
29:19earlier the commentary that uh AGI being
29:22winner take all or Google saying we'll
29:24spend whatever I'll bankrupt the company
29:26to win this. Do you think it is winner
29:29take all and should every company take
29:32that position of it is worth every
29:34dollar of spending even if it literally
29:36bankrupts the company for them to win?
29:38>> I think that is the one thing that's
29:40happened that no one has talked about. I
29:42of all the podcasts I've listened to
29:44with with Jensen, I like when I can do
29:47everyone's names by their first name.
29:48Elon, Brad, Gavin, go through the list.
29:53No one has said there's one winner and
29:57the reason has been the physical
29:59hardware side.
30:01You need to have the physical hardware.
30:04So this is where the issue comes in
30:06because what are now the government
30:09saying we're not going to allow there to
30:10be one winner. Like we're going to be
30:12monitoring this whole situation and if
30:14someone gets too big and too powerful
30:15we're going to get involved. So there's
30:18not even allowed to be one. Now, I know
30:19I've said on on on our weekly talks, but
30:22I've said it on my podcast. I've said it
30:24with other people that if you don't
30:26think the government's going to get
30:27involved as this thing gets more
30:28dangerous, you're out of your mind. And
30:30we're at that stage now. The government
30:31is more involved today than it was a
30:33year ago with AI because we've reached
30:35levels of cyber that are extreme risk.
30:37You hear this repeatedly. We had the
30:39Binance thing, which seems like a
30:40distant memory, but the Binance thing is
30:43a real risk for every single business. I
30:45know CZ talked about if you're worried
30:47about, you know, applications in on in
30:49crypto, you should be you extremely
30:51worried about bank accounts. I think
30:53this is going to be an issue and maybe
30:54it's not a US issue, maybe it's a
30:56foreign one. I think biote I think all
30:57of these things are things that people
30:59have heard about that are going to be
31:00issues. So again, I'm going to say it.
31:03Um, I think there were a lot of thoughts
31:05going into AI which have been proven
31:08extremely wrong. And I think the one
31:11thing that is happening is progress is
31:13moving faster than humans can handle it.
31:15And those humans are government. Those
31:17humans are the companies that have lots
31:18of people. When Microsoft says they're
31:20going to get offer buyouts to 27% of
31:24their employees, how is that not like a
31:27major warning sign that we have reached
31:29a level where this has never happened
31:31before and they're offering for 27% of
31:33the people in the company to go. This is
31:36a very kind of dystop dystopian time
31:39that's only going to get worse going
31:40forward. Now, as we see headwinds,
31:42chaos, uncertainty, we saw Marll do a
31:45big acquisition this week, and that
31:47seems to have caught a lot of people's
31:48attention. Um, is that a defensive
31:51acquisition? Is that an offensive
31:52acquisition? How do you look at
31:54consolidation? You know, whenever you
31:56get a lot of investment going on and
31:57then you start to get these drawdowns,
32:00usually you see some sort of
32:01consolidation, but a lot of these
32:03companies are pretty big. I mean, this
32:04was a hundred plus billion dollar
32:05acquisition. That's not like, you know,
32:07you wake up on Wednesday and decide,
32:09hey, let's go do that. there's a lot of
32:10work that goes into it. How do you view
32:12something like that?
32:14>> Well, first thing, it was a very big
32:16consolidation in my own personal
32:17portfolio. Um, not in a good way either.
32:21Um,
32:24so first of all, they weren't buying
32:27necessarily a competitor. They were
32:28buying a different part of the stack.
32:30And I, you know, I said it on mine. I
32:33don't know if we talked about it last
32:34week, but I had a lot of people reach
32:36out to me going, "What are you doing
32:37with your Marll?" And I said, well, this
32:40is not a good thing if it ends up
32:41happening just because I don't think it
32:44needs to be done. And I think it creates
32:47a lot of
32:49whenever you get bigger, it it it
32:51creates potential risk going forward. I
32:53think Marll and Intel in particular last
32:56week had a huge impact on this next leg
33:00down that happened in AI. If you went
33:02through the month of October and then
33:05into the first week of November, there
33:08were hedge funds were, you know, one of
33:10the things on my podcast this week is
33:13this is this is a little too old for
33:15you, this reference, but
33:16>> Oh, come on.
33:18>> Oh, it is. You know, at some point the
33:20age difference has to come in.
33:21>> I No, I I was uh I was shocked that you
33:23called your video a podcast. Don't Don't
33:26put yourself down like that. Your It
33:28isn't a podcast.
33:29>> Yeah. Amazing video analysis from the
33:32analyst Jordi Visser.
33:34>> Do you know who Roberto Duran is?
33:36>> Like Duran Duran. [laughter]
33:39>> Like I said, you want Do you know who?
33:41Okay. He he was a boxer.
33:43>> Okay. And he was famous for
33:45>> in what years?
33:46>> Uh the 80s. And he was famous. I was
33:48born in 1988.
33:49>> I said this is where the age difference
33:51is going to show up. Okay. So for those
33:52people watching that are more my age.
33:54They're like, "How can you not know?"
33:55Well, again,
33:56>> you're you're you're 21. What do you
33:58mean? [laughter] All right. Well,
34:00Roberto Duran was famous for a lot of
34:02different reasons, but one of them was
34:04no
34:04>> MOSS.
34:06>> He basically quit in a fight and he said
34:07no Moss. So, um,
34:09>> quitter.
34:10>> I think hedge funds reached the no MS
34:12moment
34:14>> with the Intel um,
34:17Marll kind of the all right, this month
34:20sucks. But then when the midterms hit,
34:24I mean, I've got rumors of two major
34:27hedge fund closures of either the entire
34:29firm or the equity business. That would
34:31be a lot of what's going on today.
34:33Regardless of what's true and what
34:34what's not true, because I've learned in
34:36my hedge fund days, you just don't know
34:37what's going on. Uh I think the NOAS
34:40thing has hit for the hedge fund world
34:42in terms of being able to run risk. And
34:45I'll say it again and I'll say it again
34:47and I'll say it again. when you're
34:48running leverage of that magnitude and
34:51you had issues with corweave debt, you
34:54had issues with French debt, [snorts]
34:56you had issues with Marll, issues with
34:58Intel, issues with Google falling, what
35:02when you start to have these things go
35:04on, if you have leverage like
35:07situational awareness, which was going
35:09through X today, that he's in trouble
35:11again, and he has to be. There's just no
35:13way around it based on what I heard. I
35:15just wrote that down to ask how you
35:16think our boy Leopold's doing.
35:18>> I I have a feeling um everyone who has
35:21certainty on a trade and again this is
35:23remember we talked about LTCM like a
35:25month ago and I said this is like LTCM.
35:27It's still like LTCM guys. I'm trying to
35:30find the bottom of it. I just know I
35:31have no chance of finding the bottom of
35:33it. But I also don't believe that the AI
35:35trade is over. But for people like let's
35:38say Leopold is in trouble again. The
35:41reason he's in trouble is not because
35:43fundamentally Micron won't make the
35:45numbers they're saying. It's that you
35:48may not have the time to be in the trade
35:51based on the way the structure of your
35:53positions, the debt, the the liquidity,
35:56all of the things that happen. How many
35:59losses can you take? And when you've got
36:01$100 that have been given to you and you
36:04have $300 or $400 of positions and the
36:07markets are moving at an incredibly
36:09insane pace where you can have your
36:11shorts going up. And for people who
36:13don't know this, we are one day be from
36:16so Wednesday there was an all-time high
36:19in equal weight S&P.
36:21I don't know if you knew that. So, with
36:23all of the carnage post to midterms,
36:25equal weight S&P made an all-time high
36:28the day after. So, that means that a lot
36:31of stocks went higher. A lot of AI names
36:34went down. And so, for people that are
36:35in the AI trade and they've been trying
36:36to hedge it, there's nowhere to hide.
36:38Today's episode is brought to you by
36:40Arch Public. Arch Public has just
36:41expanded its agentic trading platform
36:43beyond crypto. So, pay attention. This
36:45is a big one. Now, they are automating
36:47strategies across stocks, commodities,
36:49and ETFs. And I think that this is going
36:51to be huge. You can now automatically
36:53take profits when one market hits new
36:54all-time highs and rotate that capital
36:56into other markets showing more
36:58opportunity. Whether you're rotating
37:00capital into AI stocks, gold, if you're
37:01investing in the S&P 500, or you're
37:03accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public brings
37:05real discipline and automation to your
37:07investment strategy. Additionally,
37:09they've launched a powerful new tax loss
37:11harvesting tool. With crypto being so
37:12volatile and its exemption from the wash
37:14sale rule, Arch Public can offset gains
37:17with losses without compromising your
37:19long-term positions. It's exactly what
37:21every serious investor does.
37:23Institutional grade automation that
37:24works across every major asset class.
37:26There's no more emotional trading. No
37:28more missing tax opportunities. Just
37:30smarter, hands-free execution of your
37:32preferred strategies. Go to archpub.com
37:35right now. Connect with their team. Set
37:36up a time. Bring your accountant if
37:38you'd like. Then you can learn what
37:40automated trading can do for you.
37:41archpub.com.
37:44Today's episode is brought to you by
37:45Galaxy1. Are you a long-term holder who
37:47needs cash? Well, you don't have to
37:48sell. With a Galaxy 1 portfolio line of
37:50credit, you can borrow against eligible
37:52crypto like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana,
37:54Hype, and XRP. From November 4th to
37:56December 4th, make a single draw of
37:58$10,000 or more, and you can earn a 2%
38:00cash bonus up to $1,000. A 180day
38:04balance hold with no principal
38:05repayments required. Limited to the
38:07first 200 eligible clients. Offer may
38:09close early, but borrowing involves
38:11risk, including interest costs and
38:13liquidation if your collateral drops in
38:15value. Credit approval and terms apply.
38:17You can learn more at galaxy.appc.
38:21That's galaxy.appc.
38:25Oil is interesting to me cuz it's
38:27bounced a little bit. And I want to read
38:29you the exact line that uh JD Vance
38:33used. JD said that he uh he believes the
38:37reason we lost is the war. And because
38:40of that, he essentially, at least people
38:43believe, is breaking from Trump's stance
38:46on the war. And I don't know if it's cuz
38:48presidential aspirations, whatever, but
38:49just like there was a clear divergence
38:51there. Now, if he somehow does impact a
38:57quote unquote truce, a uh end to the
39:00war, some sort of like culmination event
39:02where we say, "Okay, the Iran thing is
39:04over. Does oil go back down? What
39:07happens to the equity markets?" like how
39:09do you see Bitcoin, gold, other assets
39:12responding to that event?
39:16>> So, all I can do is not being an oil
39:18expert, but just taking the facts of
39:20what happened
39:22when the straight was actually shut,
39:24like truly shut.
39:27The price of oil did not go to the
39:29levels that people thought it would. So,
39:31somehow another that tells you that
39:34something happened differently. Um all
39:37the speculation that happens oh China
39:39stopped importing this is a temporary
39:41thing like every theory that happened
39:45the price of oil did not go as high as
39:46people thought.
39:48I do believe that if you ask me what
39:52Iran wanted I don't think any
39:55geopolitical person would argue that in
39:57their perfect world they would want the
40:00price of oil to be a cause for Trump to
40:03lose the election. You agree with that
40:07>> 100%. So then I don't find it to be a
40:10coincidence that they
40:13which these are the facts that I've
40:15we've all heard. Oil's flowing.
40:19>> Um there's traffic going through the
40:20straight. The US has a blockade. So it's
40:24made it very difficult on the Iranian
40:26government. Um they still have the
40:29potential to bomb them in a way that
40:32they clearly know would be detrimental.
40:35They've lost the strait and they have a
40:37blockade for getting any money. So when
40:40you put all that together and one fact
40:43that I don't hear people talk enough
40:45about there's pipelines being
40:47constructed that every oil person that
40:49I've heard forecast will take 2 to 3
40:52years to be done and maybe it's now 1
40:53and 3/4 to 2 and 3/4. You've heard the
40:56same thing
40:57>> to bypass the straight. Well, that means
41:00that Iran's losing at some point they
41:02lose.
41:04>> If this and we know this is happening
41:05because they're bombing the pipes that
41:08are still in existence. So if Iran has
41:11one time to negotiate, it would seem
41:12like now would be the prime time. You've
41:15got a disconnect between Vance and
41:17Trump. You have the Republicans saying
41:20we have to end this war because it cost
41:22us this and we have to be ready for the
41:24next election. That says to me there's a
41:26chance that there can be something done.
41:29Uh let's put it this way. I think
41:31there's less chance than we thought of a
41:33move higher. And I always do believe
41:35that these price moves that are this
41:37massive, there's probably more insight
41:40into what was going on. So that's my
41:42like kind of putting the tea leaves
41:44together. I don't have a position in it.
41:45I don't really care that much. The
41:47reason it falls important for Bitcoin
41:50that means that CPI will be negative
41:53for the December reading for November
41:56most likely because November is going to
41:58have a very sharp gas at the pump. Gas
42:01at the pump has already fallen from 440
42:03to 410. [snorts] The current futures
42:06price for unled gas because it takes a
42:08while for gas at the pump to fall the
42:10same pace as the futures. The futures
42:12are equivalent as of this morning of
42:14375.
42:16So that would be another 35 which would
42:18be take us from 440 to 375 which if
42:22people do the math gets you pretty close
42:23to a 20% fall that would mean that
42:26headline CPI has a sharp negative number
42:29and like I said DRAM year-over-year is
42:31turning down the tariff stuff we've
42:33passed the the peak and now we're going
42:35to be past the peak on oil and the base
42:37effects kick in for oil when we get
42:39through March of next year and
42:40everything starts to go down where
42:41year-over-year oil is negative. So my
42:44whole estimate is that the inflation
42:46fears have peaked as well. Now
42:48>> okay if that is true gold looking at GLD
42:52uh last 5 days up about 4 4 and a.5%.
42:55Last month it is basically flat and down
42:58about.7. Uh last 6 months it's down 10%.
43:02Year to date gold is down 5%. For the
43:05last year though it is basically
43:06slightly up about 2.3 uh%. But over the
43:10last 5 years it's up 120%. So if you
43:12basically look over the last 5 days,
43:13it's up kind of post election, but for
43:15the last month, it's been flat. How does
43:17something like gold play into the macro
43:19environment as it's developing? And is
43:21it something that you're excited about
43:22or something that you kind of just don't
43:23care about right now? So I put gold. I
43:26showed a chart in there of an overlay of
43:28gold with Bitcoin this year. And since
43:30[snorts] the liquidity headwind started,
43:32which I would say started when
43:35when Trump and Israel went into Iran,
43:37when that started, that's when the
43:39headwind started for real 10ear yields.
43:42That was when the Fed became more of an
43:43issue. The dollar basically stopped
43:46going down or having any kind of
43:48weakness and the AI trade was
43:50accelerating, taking all the capital. So
43:52again, when I say liquidity, I want
43:53people to realize the liquidity for
43:55crypto when people invest in the AI
43:57trade. And when the they come to the
43:59market and go, we're going to raise a a
44:01trillion half dollars,
44:04that has an impact on Bitcoin. Um,
44:06that's just US capital. I mean, we've we
44:09saw what the Korean market did. You
44:10brought back that you heard that Korea
44:12wasn't didn't want to be involved in
44:13Bitcoin. Greed will always bring people
44:16back in. So, I'm excited about the fact
44:18that Bitcoin has acted extremely well
44:20during this chaos. And I do believe
44:22it'll be correlated to gold on the
44:23upside. I believe it'll be correlated to
44:25any bounce in the AI trade from this
44:27point because I don't think the AI trade
44:29is going to collapse from these levels
44:32cuz now we've taken it to levels where
44:33believe it or not the PE on Micron is
44:36three as of when I came in here. Um
44:38that's crazy.
44:40>> But again, that's the reality of where
44:42you have this stuff. I mean for for
44:44Nvidia you're getting close to a single
44:46digit P on you know
44:50>> and that doesn't make you excited that
44:51actually tells you like cause for
44:53concern.
44:54>> That tells me about what I was saying
44:56which is the multiple compression. Do I
44:58think uh micron will ever get to a 10p?
45:00No. So that's the best way I can say it
45:03is you think of a 3P in some in your
45:07head that says that's a low number. But
45:10the reality is I think all of the pees
45:12are coming down. The only company this
45:14year that's seen really multiple
45:15expansion that
45:17you know is a big company is Apple. It's
45:20up at like a 40 PE. But what does Apple
45:23have that all these other companies
45:24don't have? They're actually immune to
45:26AI. They don't have an AI business. They
45:29have I mean if you've looked at the
45:30capex numbers of all of their the mag 7,
45:33they're at zero basically. So, uh, Apple
45:37has done well because it's a quality
45:39safe company that people have migrated
45:41into. It's almost like the hedge against
45:43the rest of the way Bergkshire is
45:44because Berkshire and Apple are both
45:46making new all-time highs. So, is Eli
45:47Liy. Uh, so my biggest AI trade is doing
45:50well. It's just not big enough to offset
45:52the other ones that I have. So, I just
45:54think that in general, what you're
45:55you're going into is you're going to
45:57have a bouncing gold. Platinum's had a
45:59big has a reversal week. Uh, silver's
46:01done well. Palladium's done well. This
46:04isn't just one trade. Bitcoin to me will
46:06be correlated. It's part gold at this
46:08point. It's part NDX. And when we see a
46:11bounce in the AI trade and gold is going
46:13higher happened. One more thing that we
46:15talked about before, the quarterly
46:16refunding announcement happened.
46:19And as I highlighted in the crypto
46:21video,
46:23they tweaked the language.
46:25So Bloomberg put out a story and you
46:27have a lot of people saying, "Okay, now
46:29they can make changes when they want."
46:31They did the one little change. Now, the
46:34reason this is important, they did this
46:37language change on August 4th as well.
46:41And then 2 weeks later on the 18th or
46:4419th is when they actually made the
46:45buyback announcement where they were
46:47going to buy more.
46:49They have to do something to change
46:52affordability. Um,
46:55this is a major issue coming out of the
46:58number one issue was affordability and
46:59distribution of wealth. So I think
47:01there's a risk here uh again that the
47:03government will get involved to make
47:05sure that this uh long end isn't an
47:07issue. [snorts]
47:09>> Qualcomm down 9% after their earnings. I
47:14have a little bird in my ear who has
47:16been telling me that you know Qualcomm
47:18has a whole chips business
47:20>> but people don't really ever talk about
47:22them. Do you have any thoughts or or are
47:24they just kind of irrelevant from the
47:25narrative regardless of what the
47:27financials and technology is? So
47:29Qualcomm ends up being more for autos
47:32and more for phones. Um, so they do have
47:35a data center business, but it's not the
47:37same. So where Qualcomm becomes more of
47:41a thought is when
47:44car sales are going higher, which is not
47:46happening. Primarily an affordability
47:48issue, but also we we're not rolling out
47:50the FSD yet. And then on the phone side,
47:53memory's been such a big bottleneck and
47:55it's made the prices go higher that
47:57Apple has said they're not going to sell
47:59as many
48:01as thought. Now, this had an impact on
48:03Intel, too. So, Qualcomm, I think, fits
48:06a little bit into the Intel side. It
48:08fits a little bit into the auto side. uh
48:10they don't have [clears throat] let's
48:11say the upside uh interest that a Marll
48:15would have or that any of these
48:16companies on the optical side because
48:18they're almost exclusively towards the
48:20data center side which still has demand
48:22but now that data center demand people
48:24are questioning so you've lost the
48:25entire AI trade I want to repeat again
48:27what I said so people understand this at
48:30June the stock market was not
48:32discounting any bottlenecks it was not
48:34discounting any of the issues that were
48:36going to come up you guys can go pull
48:38our tapes from May and June. This was a
48:41major major thing that was why I was
48:43writing papers called the fireworks show
48:45is over midcycle slowdowns here. You
48:48never know when these corrections are
48:50going to end up bottoming and maybe this
48:52is a bubble and this is going to
48:53completely unwind. I don't believe
48:55>> take a victory lap. You were right.
48:56>> This is not my portfolio does not look
48:59like a victory lap. It looks more like
49:00carnage like someone threw an ice cream
49:02>> bubble. But but you were right and I can
49:04say it. You can't say it. That's fine.
49:06All right. I want to do two more things
49:07before we let you go. The first thing is
49:09uh I'm going to uh read. We're going to
49:10have a little fun here. Okay. But um
49:13after I get done having this fun, uh I
49:15want you and I both to share one thing
49:16we did with AI this week that is
49:18actionable for uh for people. But the
49:20fun part of what we're going to do today
49:22is me and Mr. Matt Marlinsky. We
49:24collected this week all the best memes,
49:27all the best jokes coming out of the
49:28midterm elections. I want to read you a
49:29couple of them. If you're an AI, pivot
49:32to daycarees. Pretty good one. Uh,
49:35somebody said, uh, "Mom, Donastan has
49:38expanded its borders, tooken over the
49:40United States." Uh, somebody said,
49:42"We're putting Miss Rachel on the $100
49:43bill." [laughter]
49:46And I have to read only the appropriate
49:48ones here. Uh, Trump got regime change
49:51in Texas before Iran. I mean, there are
49:54like oldtimes. Elon Musk and Joe Rogan
49:57moved to Texas to escape liberal
49:58California and inadvertently turned
50:00Texas blue for the first time in 30
50:02years. And I, you know, I read some of
50:04this stuff and and as much as I'm joking
50:06around and, you know, there's things
50:08that are uh obviously hilarious jokes,
50:10but then there's things that have like
50:11these truths to them.
50:12>> Y
50:14>> I think that it kind of comes back to
50:15this idea of like the people aren't
50:17fooled, right? And uh one of the ones
50:20that really got me and kind of opened my
50:21eyes, Raymond James put out a chart that
50:24showed Trump's approval rating mapped
50:26onto the gas prices. I [snorts] mean it
50:29is like might as well be identical twins
50:31in each direction, right? And as gas
50:33prices got worse, the approval rating.
50:35And so I do feel like one, we live in
50:38this world where information moves at
50:40the speed of light and and I saw a um a
50:43picture and it was basically taking uh I
50:45think it was men under the age of 35 and
50:47they started off on the blue side of the
50:49aisle and then it basically showed that
50:50then they went to red two years ago when
50:53they voted for and had this big red wave
50:55and then the chart very nicely drew like
50:57a U-turn back to blue and it was like
50:59you know plus 36 whatever it was. And
51:02what that tells me is that's not a left
51:04or right thing. That is a group of
51:07people in search of solutions to their
51:09problems and they don't know who can
51:11help them. Right? It's like, you know,
51:13they're they're blowing in the wind of
51:15whoever says, "Well, the people in
51:16charge right now suck. Pro I promise
51:19I'll do better."
51:20>> And it's just like you just vote for the
51:21party that's not in control. Back and
51:23forth, back and forth. Because the truth
51:25is like, can either one of these parties
51:27solve the problem? Probably not. Like we
51:29just print money and affordability gets
51:31worse. Which means that to your point
51:32like the AI trade has to find a bottom
51:34at some point, but it also has this
51:36massive tailwind when Bitcoin, gold, you
51:38know, stocks, whatever. Like at some
51:39point the money printer just takes over,
51:42right?
51:43>> Um, no. So I'm I'm not as the the money
51:48printing if and again I I'm I'm going to
51:51couch this with with one thing. Um, when
51:54you say gas prices and Trump's approval
51:56rating, you have to remember that the
51:59war moved gas prices. Agree. The war
52:02moved rates because oil moved rates and
52:05then they had to respond to rates moving
52:07higher because inflation risks went
52:08higher. I don't think it can be
52:10minimized how a lot of people voted for
52:14Trump because he promised no more wars
52:18and there was a war and it made the
52:20affordab affordability issue much
52:22weaker. Um I think everything has been a
52:26major issue in the Middle East. I think
52:27it's divided a lot of the country. I
52:29think it's been a major issue. So I I I
52:32think getting back to the printing side,
52:36everyone has a job.
52:38There's no nothing showing up in
52:40bankruptcies. There's nothing showing
52:42up. I I I just think people are um I
52:45just think they're they're fed up and
52:47they're angry. The deficit's not going
52:49away. That's what keeps the growth going
52:51along with the AI spending. And I just
52:53think the government's going to be more
52:54involved and I think bigger governments
52:56there. I I did see something interesting
52:57that of the people elected and of the
53:00people that are securing these places,
53:04we're actually moving less and less
53:06centric in terms of the people that are
53:08getting voted in.
53:08>> Mhm.
53:09>> Meaning you're getting more extremist
53:11coming into this
53:13>> on both sides.
53:14>> Yeah. 100%.
53:15>> And that's that's a little dangerous
53:17place to be because then again, you
53:19really don't know what's going to
53:20happen. And that is a big change that I
53:23think this election showed is just
53:25extremism is becoming a much bigger part
53:27of our political system. Meaning the the
53:30the way I see it is the left and the
53:33right are getting further away from each
53:34other. And the policies that they're
53:36both thinking of actually make it very
53:38very difficult. Okay, we're going to
53:40spend a ton. Okay, we're going to spend
53:41nothing. That's kind of the issue is
53:44what I I see is that it's actually
53:46getting impossible when you're starting
53:47from a 6% deficit, which Trump tried in
53:51his head to get down, then he tried to
53:53grow his way out. Now, neither of them
53:54is going to work.
53:55>> And so now you have this extreme of
53:57we're going to have to spend lots of
53:58money or we're going to have to us
54:00become auster. I don't think either of
54:02those is going to work, which means I
54:03think we're on this Lynn Alden nothing
54:06stops this train.
54:07>> Yeah, I think she's 100% right on that.
54:09Um I thought you were going to drop some
54:10memes there for a second. I thought you
54:12brought your own, but I noticed you
54:13didn't comment. All right, it's all
54:14right. No, no fun police is out from
54:16Jordy. Uh, will you tell us one way that
54:18you actually used AI this week?
54:21>> Um, okay. One work-wise was just taking
54:25uh a bunch of charts from
54:29hedge fund. So, one of the great things
54:32about what it's able to do now is I can
54:34take multiple charts and put them into
54:36one place and get them to basically
54:38extract what looks like the data
54:40visually. It's now good enough to do
54:42this, which was not the case 6 months
54:44ago.
54:44>> You put in the chart and then it gives
54:45you the raw data like
54:46>> Yeah, it it it effectively gives me an
54:50approximation of the data, which is very
54:52close. So, what I would do is take a
54:53Bloomberg chart, put the chart in, then
54:57give it the data after it gave me the
54:59approximation of the data, and then say,
55:01how off are these? Where did you make a
55:02mistake? Almost fine-tuning it to work.
55:05The reason this becomes important is
55:06because if I take a chart from Twitter
55:08that's got a certain timeline and I take
55:10one from Bloomberg and I take one from
55:12the FT and I take one from there and I
55:14put them all together and say, "Hey,
55:15show me these charts as one chart."
55:18That's something I've always wanted to
55:19do in my life was take one visual, match
55:21it up with another. So, I did that. The
55:22other one is a little more boring, but I
55:24think it's it's something that's
55:25bothered me for a long time. Um, and I
55:28probably could have done this in Google,
55:29but this is one of the reasons why if
55:31people don't use it for even simple
55:32things like asking it complex questions.
55:35So, I I literally went in and said, uh,
55:38I have a really nice shirt that I bought
55:40only 3 months ago.
55:42And I made the mistake of I drink some
55:45olive oil in the morning. It's a health
55:47tip for you as you get older. Uh,
55:49>> high calories, but good for you.
55:51>> Good fats. Yeah, it's good. So, I have
55:53>> I'm Italian. You think I don't know that
55:54trick? Go ahead. I I I have I have a
55:56couple tablespoons a day. So, you should
55:58know why Italian.
56:00>> Yeah. Why so little?
56:01>> Um, but I did this in the morning before
56:03I was running out and I spilled it on
56:04there. Now, olive oil is horrible on
56:07clothing.
56:07>> Yeah.
56:08>> But I literally went to Chachi PT and to
56:11Gemini and to Claude and said, "I'm sick
56:13of this. I've ruined so many shirts."
56:14And I said, "I have olive oil in this.
56:16How do I get rid of this?" They came up
56:18with three different answers. I put them
56:21all together in one and I asked it how
56:23to do it and I got rid of it.
56:25>> Really?
56:25>> Yeah. First time in my life. So,
56:27>> all right. Well, that that's uh super
56:28intelligence at work for the important
56:30>> corn starch uh and dawn. So, if people
56:33want to go look it up, those are that's
56:35the key thing. And if you've ever had
56:36that that stain, it just doesn't leave.
56:40>> Little magic trick for you.
56:41>> That's the key. [clears throat] All
56:41right. Um, I built a uh a health coach
56:45this week and uh I am uh proud of one
56:50part and embarrassed by another, but
56:51I'll tell you both. The uh first I
56:54started on Grockbot, built a little bot,
56:56you know, named it Health Coach, which
56:57is pretty good actually knowing like if
56:58you name it Health Coach, like what to
57:00do, right? And then I started telling
57:02it, hey, here's all the data I want you
57:03to pull in. And I hooked it up to uh
57:06Garmin, Apple Health. Interestingly,
57:08Apple Health data is very hard to get
57:09off the device. And so, you got to go
57:11get all these apps or whatever. So,
57:12[snorts] started getting all of that in,
57:14but I said, I don't want you just to
57:15take the like passive data that is here.
57:17I want you to also track the food that
57:19I'm eating, the workouts, you know, all
57:21this different stuff. And then I fed it
57:22goals for what I want to be able to do,
57:25you know, lifting wise, weight wise, all
57:27this stuff. And I said, I want that over
57:28the next 12 months. Create a whole plan,
57:30blah, blah, whatever. But then I just
57:32asked it. I said, "By the way, I'm not
57:34never going to know like how many
57:36calories I'm eating or anything. Can I
57:37just take a picture and throw it in here
57:40and you'll just get Yeah. Okay, cool.
57:42So, just built this whole thing in the
57:44crockpot. Then I said, "Just build me a
57:45website for it so I can go like
57:46visualize this stuff." Saw that. I think
57:49it's like pretty easy. But for the first
57:51time, I went to dinner on uh on Tuesday
57:54night, I think it was. Uh no, I'm sorry,
57:56Monday night. And at dinner on Monday
57:58night, I was there with uh a couple of
58:01colleagues, including Phil Rosen
58:03[snorts] and Phil head fell off because
58:06I picked up the menu and I took a
58:08picture and I sent it to my health coach
58:10and I said, "What should I eat?" And it
58:12said, "Get the shrimp cocktail and the
58:14steak." And Phil said, "There's no way
58:16you're going to have this thing tell you
58:18what to do." And I said, "Uh, waiter,
58:21shrimp cocktail and steak." And Phil was
58:23dying. and he was like, "Oh my god, like
58:27of course we're just gonna work for the
58:29machines. Like they're gonna just tell
58:30us what to eat. They're gonna tell us
58:31where to go." And so as much as it's fun
58:34and cool and you know I'm enjoying kind
58:35of like playing around with this stuff,
58:37I do think that was like one of my big
58:38takeaways is like I'm literally letting
58:41it tell me what to put like ingest into
58:43my body. Now it's through this lens of
58:45like make me healthy.
58:46>> Mhm.
58:47>> But man, what are we not going to let it
58:49do? Like Google Maps tells you where to
58:51go, you know, in your car. This is gonna
58:53tell you what to eat, when to sleep, you
58:56know, whatever.
58:57>> Well, the and I think the most important
58:59thing um because Matt and I were talking
59:02about this before you came in here,
59:03>> I was late. You can
59:05>> Yeah. I mean, I keep I keep a journal.
59:08So, like when you say you built a health
59:10coach, I I don't feel like I
59:12>> What's that a journal? That's like cave
59:14man stuff.
59:15>> Muse does all of that. Like I don't need
59:17to create anything anymore.
59:19>> It's the AI. You're keeping the journal
59:20with the AI.
59:21>> I'm [clears throat] keeping the journal.
59:22And so if I have I I don't I mean this
59:25will sound strange. Have I ever [snorts]
59:28canled because I'm sick?
59:29>> No.
59:30>> Like I haven't had the sniffles in a
59:31year. So I don't get sick. Hopefully
59:35because of the way I approach life.
59:36Hopefully. Yes. Hopefully. Trust me.
59:39>> Next week you [laughter]
59:42>> uh but one of the things I do do is if
59:45I'm even off for a second like I don't
59:48take painkillers.
59:49>> Mhm.
59:51So again, if I ever have to take a
59:54couple Advil and there might be a day
59:56where I worked out a lot and I didn't
59:58drink enough water and I don't identify
1:00:00the fact that I'm dehydrated, I take two
1:00:01and when you don't take them that much,
1:00:03they have a huge impact and the
1:00:04headache's immediately gone. So I always
1:00:07put everything in muse of what happened
1:00:10and then when you do that every day that
1:00:13anything goes on and then you say, "Hey,
1:00:14when was the last time I took Advil?"
1:00:17you start to get a reading on
1:00:19everything. I get my blood work done
1:00:20every preferably every quarter but every
1:00:23three months but sometimes it's every
1:00:24four months. I keep that data in this
1:00:27and I don't think people want to do this
1:00:29but this is the only way in my opinion
1:00:31to your point about the food the
1:00:33exercise that I'm doing the reason I'm
1:00:36doing physical therapy and acupuncture
1:00:38because I have soreness in my knee which
1:00:40is all related to my glute and my
1:00:42hamstring. Only way this stuff comes up
1:00:43is by the conversations I'm having with
1:00:46AI. Which exercise should I do based on
1:00:49what PT gave me? That whole conversation
1:00:51is just regular for me at this point. I
1:00:53don't view it as building anything in
1:00:54AI. I just view it as Muse had a huge
1:00:56impact on me. Sort of Grockbot one for
1:00:59work which is Grockbot. It did more that
1:01:01video I sent you today. There will be
1:01:03shorts up of it if people want to go see
1:01:05it and see what I'm doing on my
1:01:06subscriber wall to see how they can get
1:01:08some insights. It does the work Matt
1:01:11does for you. It does that.
1:01:12>> I was just going to say, are you coming
1:01:13for Matt's job [laughter]
1:01:15trying to automate away people?
1:01:18>> Yeah. You were going to see if your
1:01:20microphone works next time you come in
1:01:21here. Say Matt M say go ahead. Get your
1:01:24Grock about to fix the microphone,
1:01:25Jordy. [laughter]
1:01:27All right. Uh we appreciate you guys
1:01:29watching. Make sure you go to uh YouTube
1:01:31search Jordy Visser on YouTube. You can
1:01:34watch his Sunday videos. Uh where can
1:01:36they go to find the research that you
1:01:38put out? How do they become a subscriber
1:01:39to your work if uh
1:01:41>> ai.22vressearch.com.
1:01:43>> All right. AI.22vresearch.com.
1:01:46You find Jordy. I don't You should just
1:01:48put like a big picture of your face like
1:01:49you know like uh just right there.
1:01:51>> Yeah. My videos have little tiny little
1:01:54tiny boxes.
1:01:54>> I do I do I do hate that how they put up
1:01:56there but it's okay. Um and uh if you
1:01:58want to use AI to better manage your
1:02:00household finances then go to sylvia.com
1:02:03silvia.com
1:02:05and uh we'll see you guys next week.
1:02:06We'll do the best to try to figure out
1:02:07what's going on in the world and help
1:02:09you guys better manage your portfolios.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of The Midterms Just Destroyed the AI Trade? by Anthony Pompliano, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 12,325 words across 1,761 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to choose a caption track available on the video.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, caption language selection, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.