YouTube2Text

The Mathematics of Marriage: Predicting Divorce (John Gottman) — Transcript

by UW Video · 5,654 words · 807 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Full transcript

  1. 0:00[Music]
  2. 0:00the following program is a uwtv classic
  3. 0:06[Music]
  4. 0:38from the University of Washington in
  5. 0:40Seattle upon
  6. 0:44reflection hello and welcome to upon
  7. 0:46reflection I'm Ross Reynolds imagine it
  8. 0:49is the night before your wedding a man
  9. 0:51comes to you in your fiance and says
  10. 0:53that if you answer his questions for 15
  11. 0:55minutes he can predict whether or not
  12. 0:57you will stay married would you take the
  13. 1:00quiz would you do the interview it's not
  14. 1:02a hypothetical question Dr John gotman
  15. 1:04psychology professor at the University
  16. 1:06of Washington has just such a test and
  17. 1:08he says he can predict the outcome of a
  18. 1:10relationship with 90% accuracy Dr Gman
  19. 1:13thanks very much for being with us my
  20. 1:14pleasure Ross I hope I didn't over
  21. 1:16overstate your predictive skills but
  22. 1:17they're very impressive in a half hour
  23. 1:19interview you can talk to a couple and
  24. 1:21from the questions that you ask them and
  25. 1:23the question and the answers that they
  26. 1:25give you have a very high percentage
  27. 1:26rate of predicting whether or not
  28. 1:28they'll be able to stay together what
  29. 1:29are the questions that you asked them in
  30. 1:31that interview well we've been able to
  31. 1:33do it now in three different
  32. 1:34longitudinal studies so I'm quite
  33. 1:36confident of this prediction over 90%
  34. 1:39accuracy in prediction and we asked them
  35. 1:41very simple questions we asked them how
  36. 1:42they met uh what their first impressions
  37. 1:45were of one another how they decided to
  38. 1:47get married what the wedding was like
  39. 1:49what the honeymoon was like the first
  40. 1:51couple of years of marriage their
  41. 1:52transitions important transitions like
  42. 1:54becoming parents and we ask them about
  43. 1:56their philosophy of marriage how they
  44. 1:58think about things what their parents
  45. 2:00marriages were like and how their
  46. 2:01marriage may be similar or different
  47. 2:03from their parents marriages we ask them
  48. 2:04to pick a good marriage and a terrible
  49. 2:06marriage they know and compare them and
  50. 2:09compare their own marriage to that and
  51. 2:11we ask them about the history of their
  52. 2:13experience with basic emotions like
  53. 2:15anger fear sadness love Pride jealousy
  54. 2:19shame and so on simple questions very
  55. 2:21simple questions but what are the
  56. 2:23answers give it an example of some of
  57. 2:24the answers that clue you into how their
  58. 2:26relationship will work yeah you know
  59. 2:28it's interesting because you don't have
  60. 2:29to be a rocket scientist to to code
  61. 2:31these answers I mean they're really
  62. 2:32pretty apparent so one of our Dimensions
  63. 2:35is just how much room people have in
  64. 2:37their cortex and their brain uh for the
  65. 2:39relationship and their partner
  66. 2:41psychological world and guys turned out
  67. 2:42to be very critical in this so you asked
  68. 2:44one guy a question like well how did the
  69. 2:46two of you meet and what were your first
  70. 2:47impressions of one another and this guy
  71. 2:49will say you know well I remember the
  72. 2:51night very well and he describes a dance
  73. 2:53and how his wife looked dressed in a
  74. 2:55yellow dress and how his heart was
  75. 2:57pounding and he couldn't go over to to
  76. 3:00ask her to dance and then the slow dance
  77. 3:02came on and it was just the right moment
  78. 3:04and she came over and asked him to dance
  79. 3:06you know and he asked another guy how
  80. 3:07did you meet and he says Anna how do we
  81. 3:10meet so and it turns out that these the
  82. 3:12answers to these questions the way more
  83. 3:15than a bad memory it's more than a bad
  84. 3:17memory it's really not I mean these
  85. 3:19people have a fine memory it's just that
  86. 3:20they're not really you
  87. 3:22know taking very much time to make it
  88. 3:25turns out they're not taking very much
  89. 3:26time to make maps of their partner's
  90. 3:28world what's that mean a m World some
  91. 3:30some guys have kind of figured out that
  92. 3:32it's important to know their wives to
  93. 3:34know you know who are the main players
  94. 3:36in their wives lives friends potential
  95. 3:39uh negative people or enemies or Rivals
  96. 3:42people they're worried about uh their
  97. 3:44their stresses their concerns and
  98. 3:46worries at work their hopes and
  99. 3:48aspiration for themselves for the family
  100. 3:50and so on their dreams and some guys are
  101. 3:52just kind of knowing this stuff and
  102. 3:53updating it every you know so often
  103. 3:55having a date and saying say how are you
  104. 3:57you know how you thinking about that
  105. 3:58living room um what's going on in your
  106. 4:01mind are you going to change your office
  107. 4:02or you you stressed because you have
  108. 4:04that big commute to the east side or
  109. 4:06something like that uh they're finding
  110. 4:08out about their partners and this basic
  111. 4:10you know really mapmaking thing that
  112. 4:12guys do and guys love to do some guys
  113. 4:14have figured out I mean we call these
  114. 4:16guys emotionally intelligent husbands
  115. 4:18and and the fact that you know this
  116. 4:20stuff about your wife really is the
  117. 4:22basis of romance because then you know
  118. 4:25these guys are doing a whole bunch of
  119. 4:26other things they're they're thinking
  120. 4:27about stuff that they really love and
  121. 4:29admire about their Partners they're not
  122. 4:31leaving the house without knowing one
  123. 4:33basic thing that's going to happen to
  124. 4:35their wives that day then when they come
  125. 4:36home at dinner time they'll say how'd
  126. 4:38that meeting go or you know what
  127. 4:39happened when you had lunch with uh
  128. 4:41Harriet you know how'd the lunch go
  129. 4:43you've written that men who can't accept
  130. 4:45influence from their wives divorce yes
  131. 4:49why is that what goes on well you know
  132. 4:50we found out that um in studying
  133. 4:53physically abusive men you know these
  134. 4:55violent marriages Neil Jacobson and I
  135. 4:56have done this research at the
  136. 4:58University of Washington together and
  137. 4:59after watching these tapes for a couple
  138. 5:01of years Neil and I sort of noticed this
  139. 5:04pattern that these really violent guys
  140. 5:06well just they reminded us of uh
  141. 5:09baseball players at batting practice at
  142. 5:11these automatic pitching machines like
  143. 5:12whapping out everything their wives said
  144. 5:14every even reasonable demand that wives
  145. 5:16made so you know we we call this pattern
  146. 5:18really refusing influence I mean and
  147. 5:21it's very simple you don't have to be a
  148. 5:22mental health worker to accept influence
  149. 5:24it's like you know your wife says do you
  150. 5:26have to work Thursday night because my
  151. 5:27mother's coming this weekend and some
  152. 5:30guys are saying well I was planning on
  153. 5:32it but I guess I could work Sunday night
  154. 5:33you know how would that be and some guys
  155. 5:35are saying no way I'm working Thursday
  156. 5:36night you know you deal with your mother
  157. 5:38she's your mother and it's just that
  158. 5:40pattern of not you know the give and
  159. 5:42take pattern the thing you know our
  160. 5:43grandmothers always said in a good
  161. 5:45marriage you got to have give and take
  162. 5:46this is the give and take it's accepting
  163. 5:48influence and being influential it's
  164. 5:50part of a process it's independent of
  165. 5:52religious orientation I mean you can
  166. 5:54believe you know that the man is the
  167. 5:56titular head of the household I have a
  168. 5:58friend who's a Mormon Bishop you know
  169. 6:00really believe he and his wife both
  170. 6:01believe that but it's really about
  171. 6:03respect this accept the influence
  172. 6:05pattern and it's absolutely critical for
  173. 6:07the survival of marriages and it's guys
  174. 6:10you know because women are accepting
  175. 6:11influence
  176. 6:12already you've not only been able to
  177. 6:15predict whether or not a marriage will
  178. 6:17stay together but what's equally
  179. 6:18remarkable to me is you're able to
  180. 6:20predict how long a marriage will stay
  181. 6:21together how long well we found this I
  182. 6:24mean this is sort of a basic thing that
  183. 6:25we discovered I think Bob levenson and I
  184. 6:27really did this and he's a professor at
  185. 6:29UC Berkeley and we've done the longest
  186. 6:32longitudinal study now is 14 years we
  187. 6:34followed couple maybe you could explain
  188. 6:35a longitudinal study yeah we we take a
  189. 6:37group of couples uh and we really sort
  190. 6:39of watch them and periodically check in
  191. 6:41with them usually every year and see how
  192. 6:44the marriage is going if they're still
  193. 6:45together if they're separated if they're
  194. 6:47thinking about divorce a lot uh just the
  195. 6:49status of the marriage and we follow
  196. 6:51them as long as we can you've been in
  197. 6:53touch with these couples for many years
  198. 6:54haven't you that's right so this has
  199. 6:56been our long this is the 15th year now
  200. 6:58we've been following the sample and we
  201. 6:59we're doing this really with 650 couples
  202. 7:02right now at different places in the
  203. 7:04life course some newlyweds one study of
  204. 7:06newlyweds all the way up to couples who
  205. 7:08are going through retirement who are in
  206. 7:10their mid-60s now we've been following
  207. 7:11them and we asked the question you know
  208. 7:14what kinds of things predict um
  209. 7:16successful transitions like becoming
  210. 7:18parents like going through retirement
  211. 7:20some people have a great time retiring
  212. 7:22for some people it's extremely stressful
  213. 7:24and the marriage makes a difference big
  214. 7:25difference so that's what a longitudinal
  215. 7:27study is and Bob and I have discovered
  216. 7:30that there are two major high risk
  217. 7:31points for couples half of all the
  218. 7:34divorces we know you know from other
  219. 7:36research occur in the first seven years
  220. 7:38of marriage so the first seven years of
  221. 7:39marriage is a very high risk period for
  222. 7:42marriages and then the second period
  223. 7:45that's really high risk is about 16 to
  224. 7:4720 years into the marriage usually when
  225. 7:50people have teenage kids and so the
  226. 7:52interesting thing is do the same things
  227. 7:54predict whether couples will divorce
  228. 7:56early or late no it's different now the
  229. 7:58teenage kids I can understand but why
  230. 8:00seven years into a marriage do we find a
  231. 8:02lot of divorces well it's not really the
  232. 8:04seventh year you know the sevene itch is
  233. 8:07supposed to be like suddenly in the
  234. 8:08seventh year people start getting the
  235. 8:10itch to leave the relationship it's not
  236. 8:11true it's really all the way through the
  237. 8:13first seven years people are at higher
  238. 8:15risk and the reason really is that this
  239. 8:18is where a lot of the major adjustments
  240. 8:21are taking place to being married and
  241. 8:23all couples have to make these
  242. 8:24adjustments it doesn't matter anything
  243. 8:26about their personality or or whe whe
  244. 8:29they're depressed or not depressed it's
  245. 8:31all marriages have to learn how to
  246. 8:33manage money how to think about kids how
  247. 8:35to set up a home how to be close to one
  248. 8:37another how to how to balance career and
  249. 8:39family you know and then if they become
  250. 8:41parents how to make the transition to uh
  251. 8:44to become parents it's a big big change
  252. 8:46in life purpose and meaning and identity
  253. 8:48so a lot of really big things are
  254. 8:50happening as soon as that honeymoon is
  255. 8:52over and they're home well then they
  256. 8:54this is a realization my God you know
  257. 8:56we're together and we've made this
  258. 8:57commitment now what you so a lot of
  259. 9:00stuff is happening in that first seven
  260. 9:01years well what predicts whether people
  261. 9:03divorc in that first sevene period is
  262. 9:05how Negative they are when they're
  263. 9:07dealing with conflict can they handle
  264. 9:09conflict in a way that is gentle that is
  265. 9:12loving that is affectionate that is kind
  266. 9:14can they accept influence can they bring
  267. 9:16up problems in a way that is somehow
  268. 9:18softened instead of really harsh and yet
  269. 9:20you've said that doesn't mean that
  270. 9:21couples don't have knockdown drag out
  271. 9:23battles that's right that can be a sign
  272. 9:25of a healthy relationship it can be as
  273. 9:27long as it's not contemptuous as long as
  274. 9:29it's people aren't criticizing one
  275. 9:31another uh as long as they're staying in
  276. 9:33there and they're you know uh not
  277. 9:35becoming defensive so the the the magic
  278. 9:39in resolving conflict is this it's
  279. 9:42really communicating to your partner
  280. 9:43somehow you know I love you I like you
  281. 9:46the way you are but please change so
  282. 9:48it's it's kind of an interesting
  283. 9:50dialectic it's like you communicate
  284. 9:52acceptance but you also communicate
  285. 9:54requests for Change and the couples who
  286. 9:56are doing this in a kind of gentle way
  287. 9:58and you know Kinder way is really the
  288. 10:00only way to describe it are really
  289. 10:02managing those seven years very well now
  290. 10:04there's another group of couples who are
  291. 10:06not very negative right but they're just
  292. 10:09not very positive I mean they're they're
  293. 10:11not showing a lot of interest in one
  294. 10:12another a lot they're not very
  295. 10:14affectionate you know they're not really
  296. 10:16praising and admiring one another so
  297. 10:18it's kind of like more of an emotionally
  298. 10:19dead marriage you know I mean this is
  299. 10:21the kind of marriage where if the wife
  300. 10:23comes into a party the husband's been at
  301. 10:25for a while you know and she walks in
  302. 10:27she would like to see her husband sort
  303. 10:28of brighten when he sees her this is the
  304. 10:30kind of marriage where there's no
  305. 10:31response really you know those people if
  306. 10:34it's not negative stay married much
  307. 10:36longer but then eventually that lack of
  308. 10:39positivity lack of emotional connection
  309. 10:41really takes its toll I'm really
  310. 10:42interested that you have a mathematics
  311. 10:44background have you've been able to
  312. 10:46integrate that into taking a a
  313. 10:48subjective concept like contempt and
  314. 10:50actually measure that yes I we you know
  315. 10:52in fact I'm glad you asked me that
  316. 10:54that's a great question Ross uh James
  317. 10:56Murray and I James Murray is a is a
  318. 10:59mathematics professor in the appi our
  319. 11:00Applied Mathematics Department he's a
  320. 11:02world famous uh mathematical modeler of
  321. 11:05biological systems and he's done
  322. 11:07research on why tigers have stripes and
  323. 11:10why leopards have spots and you know
  324. 11:12really creating models for biological
  325. 11:14processes he and I and his students have
  326. 11:16been working for the past five years on
  327. 11:17modeling marriages and we have a
  328. 11:19mathematical model that we've created
  329. 11:21with equations in which we can really
  330. 11:23describe what's happening in marriage
  331. 11:25simulate the way this couple will be
  332. 11:27under other conditions and design
  333. 11:28experiment
  334. 11:30so it's led us to really do these very
  335. 11:32nice brief experiments on changing the
  336. 11:34way couples interact improving a
  337. 11:36marriage in a half an hour changing a
  338. 11:38really distressed marriage and in half
  339. 11:40an hour turning it into a really
  340. 11:42terrific marriage temporarily that's the
  341. 11:45problem getting it to last is the real
  342. 11:47problem but with this mathematics
  343. 11:49background with this with this
  344. 11:50mathematical modeling that James Murray
  345. 11:52is able to really bring to this um you
  346. 11:55know we can really uh lend a lot of
  347. 11:57precision to moments like contempt what
  348. 11:59it does and how it creates suppression
  349. 12:01of the immune system how it makes people
  350. 12:03physically ill you know it everybody
  351. 12:06gets into a relationship thinking it's
  352. 12:07Unique and that's part of the attraction
  353. 12:09of it they think it's special there's
  354. 12:10nothing like it in the world I guess
  355. 12:11hearing you talk about being able to use
  356. 12:13mathematics Etc and and apply them to a
  357. 12:16relationship might make people listening
  358. 12:17to you think oh you're taking all of the
  359. 12:20zest out of it yeah right that's true I
  360. 12:21mean but you know all we're doing is
  361. 12:24really we're we're trying to you know we
  362. 12:26really describe marriages that are great
  363. 12:27marriages and you know we have a study
  364. 12:30you know uh Lura Carstensen at Stanford
  365. 12:32and Bob levenson at Berkeley and I have
  366. 12:34been doing this study for eight years of
  367. 12:36of couples in midlife and couples in
  368. 12:38their 60s and looking at Great marriages
  369. 12:41and trying to really I see researchers
  370. 12:43trying to take that magic that exists in
  371. 12:46really terrific relationships and kind
  372. 12:47of spell it out so that the rest of us
  373. 12:50can really benefit from it so I think
  374. 12:52the magic is there but I think it's
  375. 12:54really important for us scientists to
  376. 12:56really try to describe that magic
  377. 12:58understand it from within and from all
  378. 13:01different angles and then be able to
  379. 13:03teach it to people so that they can do
  380. 13:04it I think it's teachable you know we've
  381. 13:06talked about the words that people say
  382. 13:07but you also take a close look in
  383. 13:09videotaping couples and also in
  384. 13:11measuring their physiological reactions
  385. 13:13to what's happening in their bodies and
  386. 13:15you've even got some conclusions on how
  387. 13:16body language comes into play in a
  388. 13:18relationship exactly yeah could you talk
  389. 13:20about some of those sure I mean there's
  390. 13:22you know we look at uh we look at what
  391. 13:24people are doing non-verbally as
  392. 13:26listeners for example you can
  393. 13:27communicate contempt very Qui quickly
  394. 13:29and just one facial expression it looks
  395. 13:31like this so you do this contam facial
  396. 13:34expression that Paul Eckman at the
  397. 13:36University of California San Francisco
  398. 13:38has identified and you know and we can
  399. 13:40we can count those on a husband's face
  400. 13:43and they're very predictive of the
  401. 13:44number of infectious illnesses his wife
  402. 13:46is going to have in the next four years
  403. 13:48so contempt is our most corrosive thing
  404. 13:51it really corrodes love it's like sric
  405. 13:53acid for love and so we can look at
  406. 13:55these body language things uh we can
  407. 13:57look at things like long eye closures or
  408. 13:59eyelid flutters and find out that again
  409. 14:02this is Paul ekman's thinking that this
  410. 14:05this reflects people going inside and
  411. 14:07saying no to the to what their partner
  412. 14:09is saying about them so it can take
  413. 14:11these moments of non-verbal Behavior or
  414. 14:13if I'm talking to you like this and
  415. 14:15looking at you like this or sitting this
  416. 14:17way these small uh behaviors or playing
  417. 14:20with my hair or with my tie you know
  418. 14:22that tell that tell you I'm not here I'm
  419. 14:25really not involved in this
  420. 14:27conversation those really are indicative
  421. 14:29of what's going on in people's bodies
  422. 14:31the the elevation of heart rate and more
  423. 14:34importantly a kind of diffuse elevation
  424. 14:36you know where people are pumping out
  425. 14:37adrenaline the heart is Contracting hard
  426. 14:39the blood is Flowing fast the arteries
  427. 14:41are constricted in the periphery and so
  428. 14:44on blood flow is shut down to the kidney
  429. 14:46and gut that really are stuff that
  430. 14:48happens in marital conversation it's
  431. 14:50just like the stuff that would happen if
  432. 14:52we were about to have a a huge car
  433. 14:54accident and we avoided it you know our
  434. 14:56hearts would be pumping this way I mean
  435. 14:58we get heart rates of 165 beats a minute
  436. 15:00when couples are sitting down talking
  437. 15:01about his mother or the money or sex you
  438. 15:05know so you get the same kind of arousal
  439. 15:07so you have to really understand what's
  440. 15:08going on in people's bodies because when
  441. 15:10people get up to that state in their
  442. 15:12bodies they can't listen they can't take
  443. 15:14an information they can't problem solve
  444. 15:17creatively and so all of these things
  445. 15:19are really important in our
  446. 15:21understanding of why marriages fall
  447. 15:22apart or why marriages Stay Together the
  448. 15:25ability of a couple to soothe one
  449. 15:27another to make the marriage a important
  450. 15:29in a storm instead of another storm in
  451. 15:31people's lives absolutely critical in
  452. 15:33what happens to the marriage what do you
  453. 15:34think about this these kinds of results
  454. 15:36and how they might apply to people in in
  455. 15:38other cultures to people in various
  456. 15:40socioeconomic groups how much do you
  457. 15:42think your research has been bound to
  458. 15:44where you live and the couples you've
  459. 15:45looked at that's a great question I'm
  460. 15:47glad you asked me that question too
  461. 15:48because you know culture is one is one
  462. 15:51thing that uh I think that we're always
  463. 15:53dealing with with marriages it's not
  464. 15:55just culture is not important just in
  465. 15:57thinking about uh whe whether the couple
  466. 15:59is African-American Or Hispanic American
  467. 16:01or Asian-American or one person is from
  468. 16:04one culture one person is from another
  469. 16:05culture culture is important in every
  470. 16:07marriage because culture is about
  471. 16:09meaning sociologists and anthropologists
  472. 16:11will tell you that and when a couple
  473. 16:13gets hung up on a money problem that
  474. 16:15money problem money is not just money
  475. 16:18money is about what it's about Freedom
  476. 16:20it's about power it's about independence
  477. 16:22it's about competence it's about safety
  478. 16:25it's about security it's about all these
  479. 16:27millions of things that need mean
  480. 16:29something and one person's meaning is
  481. 16:31different from the other person's
  482. 16:32meaning and meshing those meanings is
  483. 16:34what it's all about for creating a
  484. 16:35marital culture and this is true if you
  485. 16:37study couples in Kuwait who have
  486. 16:39arranged marriages and are mlim or you
  487. 16:42study couples in any other culture
  488. 16:44they're having to create the shared
  489. 16:46system of meaning and that's where
  490. 16:48problems get gridlocked that's where we
  491. 16:49get the marital gridlock so you take
  492. 16:51these really simple trivial problems
  493. 16:53that couples are arguing about for years
  494. 16:55you know and that are causing all this
  495. 16:57pain it's about culture it's it's about
  496. 16:59meaning what effect does a baby have on
  497. 17:01a marriage oh it's huge uh and and the
  498. 17:04effect of the marriage on the baby is
  499. 17:05also huge it really goes two different
  500. 17:07ways now the Cowans at Berkeley Philip
  501. 17:10and carollyn Cowen who have been
  502. 17:11studying the transition to Parenthood
  503. 17:12and really have done the only study
  504. 17:14trying to help couples weather this
  505. 17:16trans transition find that not having a
  506. 17:19baby is not so it's not so good either
  507. 17:22because in the first seven years of
  508. 17:23marriage the couples that didn't have a
  509. 17:25baby their divorce rate was 50% half of
  510. 17:27them got a divorce the couples who had a
  511. 17:29baby it's 25% so a slightly better
  512. 17:32chance of staying together if you have a
  513. 17:33baby stally yes but now three4 of the
  514. 17:36people have babies wind up going on this
  515. 17:39slow slide toward divorce where where
  516. 17:42the marital happiness drops marital
  517. 17:44quality drops and the and a quarter of
  518. 17:46them don't and part of our research was
  519. 17:48really to try to see what's different
  520. 17:50about the the people who wind up in that
  521. 17:53quarter his marital satisfaction doesn't
  522. 17:54go down can we tell anything different
  523. 17:56about them and and the three quarters
  524. 17:58really suffer after the baby arrives and
  525. 18:01particularly can we tell anything about
  526. 18:02the marriage in the first couple of
  527. 18:03months of being newly wets and we can
  528. 18:06again it's this cognitive room that I
  529. 18:08mentioned and men and women are both
  530. 18:11important but especially guys so men who
  531. 18:13are really taking the time to really
  532. 18:16know their wives their wives
  533. 18:17psychological world who are really
  534. 18:20responding to them with affection and
  535. 18:21admiration and and pride and respect
  536. 18:25those people wind up in the 25% group
  537. 18:27when the baby comes so what's H what's
  538. 18:29really critical about about preserving
  539. 18:32intimacy when the baby arrives is
  540. 18:34preserving in the marriage that way of
  541. 18:38communicating caring affection knowledge
  542. 18:40of one another and admiration for one
  543. 18:42another and so we get we try to get
  544. 18:43couples to do that to nurture that part
  545. 18:45of their relationship the interesting
  546. 18:47thing is that the transition to
  547. 18:49Parenthood is really a major life
  548. 18:52transition in terms of your philosophy
  549. 18:54of Life what's important what meaning
  550. 18:56what life means CU When that baby's
  551. 18:58there
  552. 18:59well for most people that's a huge
  553. 19:01change and now people are starting to
  554. 19:02think you know the baby's life is more
  555. 19:04important than my life you know I have
  556. 19:07these very strong emotions about the
  557. 19:08baby and we both love this baby together
  558. 19:11so the the couples who who shift their
  559. 19:14their philosophy of Life their their
  560. 19:16their idea about meaning are really able
  561. 19:18to weather this transition and for them
  562. 19:20the arrival of the baby enhances the
  563. 19:22marriage you know so it's of a fabric
  564. 19:24whereas you know people think it's like
  565. 19:26a seesaw if the marriage is good you
  566. 19:28know the baby's going to suffer if your
  567. 19:30relationship with the baby is good the
  568. 19:31marriage is going to suffer our research
  569. 19:33shows that it's one fabric for these 25%
  570. 19:36of couples that really do well because
  571. 19:38they're changing their culture they're
  572. 19:40changing their own meaning system about
  573. 19:42what it means to be parents you know and
  574. 19:45they're saying you know I want my kid to
  575. 19:47this and that you know yeah I've always
  576. 19:50heard that uh Children of Divorce are
  577. 19:52going to have a very hard time in
  578. 19:53marriage you found that's not
  579. 19:54necessarily the case that's that's
  580. 19:57absolutely true I mean there is a small
  581. 19:59effect that uh that people whose parents
  582. 20:02divorced have a slightly larger chance
  583. 20:05of divorcing themselves but it's not
  584. 20:07written in stone it is by no means a
  585. 20:09strong effect and we find about 50% of
  586. 20:13the couples we see are taking what's
  587. 20:16what what they thought about what they
  588. 20:17saw going on in their parents marriages
  589. 20:19and they say not in this marriage in
  590. 20:21this marriage I remember one couple
  591. 20:23where both husband and wife said you
  592. 20:25know in our families nobody ever said
  593. 20:28once
  594. 20:29I love you I care about you and in our
  595. 20:32marriage we find a way to do that every
  596. 20:34day and I asked them well how do you do
  597. 20:35it and they said well we leave leave
  598. 20:37little notes around in secret places and
  599. 20:39we phone messages and send flow we find
  600. 20:42we have hundreds of ways of doing it and
  601. 20:43we're always thinking ways of doing it
  602. 20:45so it's it's not engraved in stone that
  603. 20:47their marriage is going to have to
  604. 20:48replicate that the generations have to
  605. 20:50reproduce the same pathology and
  606. 20:53hopelessness not at all Tolstoy said
  607. 20:56that all happy families are the same but
  608. 20:58it sounds as though though your research
  609. 20:59finds quite the opposite that there are
  610. 21:01many ways for happy for families to be
  611. 21:03happy and actually fewer ways for
  612. 21:05families to be sad that's right there's
  613. 21:07really there's really a very predictable
  614. 21:09Cascade when people move toward divorce
  615. 21:11where they get increasingly lonely and
  616. 21:13isolated from each other and you know
  617. 21:15lead parallel lives and get depressed
  618. 21:17and contemptuous and emotionally distant
  619. 21:20but there are lots of ways of having
  620. 21:21happy marriages I mean there we find
  621. 21:23these very passionate volatile couples
  622. 21:25who debate all the time well they
  623. 21:27they're fine couples who avoid conflict
  624. 21:29and really believe anger is a bad thing
  625. 21:31and you know we're not going to conflict
  626. 21:33they're fine and couples sort of in
  627. 21:35between are also fine it's that what
  628. 21:37makes the difference is really making
  629. 21:39the marriage a rich climate of
  630. 21:41positivity five times as much positivity
  631. 21:43as negativity and communicating
  632. 21:46disagreements in a gentle way in a way
  633. 21:48that's not defensive not contemptuous
  634. 21:50not critical can that generating
  635. 21:52positivity though just be fake I mean
  636. 21:54can people just be trying to make happy
  637. 21:56but yeah you know but a fake a good
  638. 21:58start I
  639. 22:00mean that's right you know I mean a lot
  640. 22:02of times one of the things that you know
  641. 22:04we tell our couples is you don't have to
  642. 22:05learn a lot of new social skills because
  643. 22:07all of this behavior is there in almost
  644. 22:10everybody in the way we treat guests you
  645. 22:12know a guest comes over forgets an
  646. 22:14umbrella we don't say what is wrong with
  647. 22:17you am I your slave I have to give you
  648. 22:18your umbrella we say you know you forgot
  649. 22:20your umbrella or a guest spills a glass
  650. 22:22of wine we say no problem would you like
  651. 22:24another glass you know we don't say you
  652. 22:26know you ruined my best tablecloth so
  653. 22:28maybe apply some of that politeness to
  654. 22:30your spous exct exactly there are many
  655. 22:32more marriage counselors now than there
  656. 22:34were 10 years ago there are many more
  657. 22:35people going to counseling and yet the
  658. 22:37divorce rate stays about the same what's
  659. 22:39going on well let me let me tell you
  660. 22:40about a study that was recently done
  661. 22:41where they interviewed all the divorce
  662. 22:42couples in a large metropolitan area uh
  663. 22:45less than 1% of them had ever had any
  664. 22:48marriage counseling either by a
  665. 22:49clergyman or a professional so we are
  666. 22:51doing a terrible job as a profession
  667. 22:53marketing marriage counseling marital
  668. 22:56workshops I think we have a big big task
  669. 22:58ahead of us to be able to communicate
  670. 23:00the couples that you know they they you
  671. 23:03cost you about $3,500 to fix the roof of
  672. 23:05your house you got to do it every five
  673. 23:07years to spend you know like $1,000 doll
  674. 23:10on fixing the marriage Under The Roof is
  675. 23:12worth it but You' been very critical
  676. 23:14about the way some of those marriage
  677. 23:15counselors do their work and and you
  678. 23:17said that it doesn't really fix the roof
  679. 23:18it still leaks that's true I you know I
  680. 23:21I really think that uh it makes a big
  681. 23:23difference to base the marital therapy
  682. 23:25and the marital workshops on Research
  683. 23:27there have only been two studies out of
  684. 23:2965 in the research literature on
  685. 23:31marriages that have gotten lasting
  686. 23:33effects Beyond two years you know
  687. 23:35marital intervention studies one of them
  688. 23:37was done by my colleague Neil Jacobson
  689. 23:38here and another was done by Snider and
  690. 23:41wills and both those Studies have two
  691. 23:43ingredients I think two active
  692. 23:45ingredients they reduce negativity in
  693. 23:48conflict resolution they make the
  694. 23:50conflict resolution softer more gentle
  695. 23:52Kinder and secondly they increase
  696. 23:55overall positivity like I've been
  697. 23:56talking about which I think is really
  698. 23:58about getting husband and wife to be
  699. 24:00better friends that's what I think it's
  700. 24:01really about and those are the two
  701. 24:04studies that have gotten lasting changes
  702. 24:05Beyond two years and our research
  703. 24:08supports those two studies entirely and
  704. 24:10amplifies how you build that friendship
  705. 24:13you know the cognitive room the respect
  706. 24:15and admiration that's really what it's
  707. 24:17about so I although I I think that a lot
  708. 24:20of the approaches have really fallen
  709. 24:22short in terms of relapse after the
  710. 24:25therapy the studies that work and I
  711. 24:28think think our research is on the same
  712. 24:29track of trying to build overall
  713. 24:31friendship in the marriage and make the
  714. 24:33way people approach conflict much
  715. 24:35gentler there are a couple of tactics
  716. 24:36used by marriage counselors that you've
  717. 24:38been very critical of and they're very
  718. 24:40commonly used one is empathy and one is
  719. 24:42active listening what are the faults you
  720. 24:44find in the use of those techniques well
  721. 24:46you know the the the model of active
  722. 24:48listening and empathy both of them are
  723. 24:49very similar is that when my wife is
  724. 24:51complaining about me you know and I'm
  725. 24:53the villain she thinks I've been
  726. 24:55insensitive and too angry and you know
  727. 24:58hot tempered and stressful and you know
  728. 25:00whatever I'm supposed to be
  729. 25:02compassionate and understanding and Ross
  730. 25:06I've seen the Dal Lama do that when he
  731. 25:07came to Seattle two years ago I went
  732. 25:09there and there was this question who
  733. 25:11asked this really hostile question and
  734. 25:12he said thank you very much I appreciate
  735. 25:15the courage it took to answer that
  736. 25:16question and he was wonderful but most
  737. 25:18people can't do that not even therap
  738. 25:20yeah well not the Dal Lama I mean I'm
  739. 25:21sure Jesus did it too you know I'm sure
  740. 25:24Moses didn't do it you know so it's hard
  741. 25:26to do that and I think it's easier to do
  742. 25:30when you're not the target when your
  743. 25:32partner is talking about something
  744. 25:33stressful that happened today and I
  745. 25:34think that's the proper context for
  746. 25:36active listening is in stress reduction
  747. 25:39and deep pressuring at the end of the
  748. 25:41day and you know really saying oh you
  749. 25:42know I've got this situation at work and
  750. 25:44then you can listen you can say tell me
  751. 25:46all about it I can be your buddy there's
  752. 25:48a great Bill Cosby routine where he
  753. 25:50walks in and he he says he feels his
  754. 25:52wife's anger in the air you know and he
  755. 25:55walks over to her and he says she's
  756. 25:57Furious and she says I want you to go
  757. 25:59upstairs and kill that boy you know and
  758. 26:01his first thought is it's not me I'm so
  759. 26:04glad it's not me you know and uh that
  760. 26:07feeling of being able to be empathetic
  761. 26:09is easier to do when you're not the
  762. 26:11target I think that's the proper place
  763. 26:13for it marriage counselers have been
  764. 26:14really saying people have to do this
  765. 26:16empathy when you are the target I think
  766. 26:19if you can do it it'll be enormously
  767. 26:21powerful but but my reading of the
  768. 26:24literature is that only a small
  769. 26:25percentage of couples can do it you know
  770. 26:2715% maybe I don't think I'm one of them
  771. 26:30if you can't do it should it just be a
  772. 26:31timeout just not talk about it timeout
  773. 26:34is one of the most powerful things
  774. 26:36couples can do to improve their
  775. 26:37marriages if they can you know monitor
  776. 26:40when they feel flooded and upset and
  777. 26:42take a real break it's and we find it's
  778. 26:44got to be a 20-minute break because of
  779. 26:46the neurotransmitters that are involved
  780. 26:47in physiological arousal they they don't
  781. 26:50degrade very easily it takes time to get
  782. 26:53him out of the bloodstream it's got to
  783. 26:54be a 20-minute period when people are
  784. 26:57not thinking in their minds I don't have
  785. 26:58to take this stuff MH and they really
  786. 27:01have to calm down especially guys we're
  787. 27:03just about out of time but for you what
  788. 27:05is the major question that you would
  789. 27:07like to answer next in your research
  790. 27:08about what works in a marriage and what
  791. 27:10hurts a marriage I think the basic
  792. 27:12problem confering our field is how to
  793. 27:14get um changes to last and how to get
  794. 27:17couples to sort of not wait to improve
  795. 27:19their marriage to do it on a daily basis
  796. 27:21like the Bible says in Ephesians Don't
  797. 27:23Let the Sun Go Down on your wrath we
  798. 27:25have to find out how to do that and a
  799. 27:27wonderful way to end Dr John Gman is
  800. 27:29Professor of psychology at the
  801. 27:30University of Washington director of the
  802. 27:32Seattle marriage and Family Institute
  803. 27:33and author of why marriages succeed or
  804. 27:36fail Dr John Gman thanks very much for
  805. 27:38being with us on a pine
  806. 27:44reflection to see more uwtv Classics
  807. 27:47visit wv.org classics

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of The Mathematics of Marriage: Predicting Divorce (John Gottman) by UW Video, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 5,654 words across 807 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.