The Math Behind Profitable Trading — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hey, hey, what's up, my friend? So, do
- 0:03you know there there is a legendary
- 0:05trader called Dan Zanger who
- 0:09achieved a 29,233%
- 0:13return over a 1-year period trading
- 0:16chart patterns.
- 0:17And you also have this guy called Andrea
- 0:21Unger who won the World Cup of Trading
- 0:24four times using algorithms.
- 0:27And finally,
- 0:29a market wizard called Ed Seykota who
- 0:32took $5,000 and turned it into 16
- 0:35million as a trend follower.
- 0:38These are three different traders with
- 0:41different strategies, personalities, and
- 0:44approaches towards the market.
- 0:47But they all understood one thing that
- 0:4995% of traders never figure out.
- 0:52It's this. It's not a secret indicator.
- 0:54It's not some magic candlestick pattern,
- 0:56and it's not discipline.
- 0:58It is this, the math behind profitable
- 1:02trading.
- 1:03And once you understand this math,
- 1:06you'll see why a trading system with a
- 1:0840% winning rate can absolutely crush
- 1:12a system with an 80% winning rate.
- 1:14Right? No, I haven't lost my mind. I
- 1:16just lost my hair. The mind is still
- 1:18intact. So, you ready? Then let's get
- 1:20started. Let me ask you, if I give you a
- 1:23trading system that has a 80% winning
- 1:26rate, meaning you win 80% of the time,
- 1:29will you trade it?
- 1:31Well, many traders would say, "Hell yes,
- 1:33Rayner. Give me that system. Take my
- 1:34money. Take my wife." Well, okay. Maybe
- 1:37not my wife, but you get the idea. So,
- 1:39but what if I tell you that this same
- 1:41system could still
- 1:43cause you to lose money in the long run.
- 1:45How is that possible?
- 1:47Because your winning rate is only half
- 1:51the story.
- 1:52And this is where most traders get it
- 1:54wrong. So, what I'm about to share with
- 1:56you is the single most important number
- 2:00in your trading.
- 2:01Your expectancy.
- 2:03So, let me explain to you how this
- 2:05works.
- 2:06So, your expectancy can be defined using
- 2:09this formula over here, right? Don't
- 2:11don't be alarmed. I'll explain it to you
- 2:13step by step so that, you know, even a
- 2:1410-year-old can understand. So,
- 2:16expectancy, the formula is defined by
- 2:18your winning percentage multiplied by
- 2:20your average gain minus your losing
- 2:23percentage multiplied by your average
- 2:25loss. So, your winning percentage
- 2:27refers to, you know, how often you win.
- 2:29So, if out of 10 trades you take, you
- 2:32have six winners, four losers, it means
- 2:34that you have a 60% winning rate, yeah?
- 2:37And losing percentage is just how often
- 2:39you lose, and in this case you have a
- 2:4040% losing rate since you lost four
- 2:43times out of 10.
- 2:44Now, what about your average profit? How
- 2:46do you define the average size of your
- 2:49profit?
- 2:50Again, let's say after 10 trades you
- 2:52made $1,000 after 10 trades. So, this
- 2:55means that your average profit per trade
- 2:57is $1,000 divided by 10 because you took
- 2:5910 trades. So, average profit is $100,
- 3:02yeah? So, it is just the same for your
- 3:05average loss. So, now let me walk you
- 3:07through a couple of examples so you can
- 3:09see this concept in action.
- 3:11So, the first example, let's say you
- 3:14have a trading system that has a 80%
- 3:17winning rate.
- 3:18Your average gain per trade is $10.
- 3:22And your losing rate is 20%.
- 3:24And your average loss is $100. So, what
- 3:27is your expectancy?
- 3:30So, if you plug in the formula, your
- 3:32expectancy is
- 3:34You can see your 80% over here is 0.8
- 3:36multiplied by 10, which is your average
- 3:38gain over here, minus 0.2, which is your
- 3:41losing rate from this figure here, and
- 3:44your average loss is $100, and then you
- 3:46plug in over here. And what you realize
- 3:48is that your expectancy is minus $12.
- 3:52So,
- 3:53what does this negative $12 mean?
- 3:57This means that you can expect to lose
- 3:59an average of $12 per trade.
- 4:03And if you take 100 trades, you would be
- 4:07roughly down about $1,200 after 100
- 4:10trades. So, as you can see, even though
- 4:13you win 80% of the time, the few losses
- 4:16that you take, they're so devastating
- 4:18that they actually wiped out all your
- 4:20profits and more.
- 4:22So, it's like being an amazing cook, an
- 4:24amazing chef, you know, who
- 4:26occasionally, you know, burns down the
- 4:28entire house. Sure, you know, eight out
- 4:29of 10 times you cook
- 4:31amazing, good-tasting, delicious food.
- 4:34But the other two times you need to call
- 4:35on the fire department to put out the
- 4:37fire in your house.
- 4:38As you can tell, having a positive
- 4:40expectancy, having an edge in the
- 4:41markets is so, so, so important. So,
- 4:43this is why I actually wrote this book
- 4:46called Trading Systems That Work. You
- 4:48can grab a copy for the link in the
- 4:50description or go down to
- 4:51tradingsystemsbook.com
- 4:53and grab a copy. So, over here
- 4:56you will learn not one, not two, but
- 4:57three proven trading systems that work.
- 5:00You will learn in this case a mean
- 5:01reversion system here. You'll learn a
- 5:03trend-following system and a breakout
- 5:05trading system. I'll give you the exact
- 5:07trading rules along with the back-tested
- 5:09data so you can actually verify these
- 5:11findings on your own and don't take my
- 5:12word for it. And when you grab a copy of
- 5:15this book today, you also get a number
- 5:16of bonuses like the TradingView setup,
- 5:18brokerage account setup, risk management
- 5:20training, a community, private
- 5:22community, and a trading systems cheat
- 5:24sheet. So, all this comes along for free
- 5:26when you grab a copy of this book called
- 5:28Trading Systems That Work. So, if you're
- 5:29interested, I'll put the link somewhere
- 5:30below this video and you can grab a
- 5:32copy. Now, you might be thinking, "Oh,
- 5:35Rayner, if I just find a trading system
- 5:37with the 80 90% winning rate and a
- 5:40favorable risk to reward where I risk a
- 5:42dollar and make back $3 or more, I'll be
- 5:44rich."
- 5:46Sorry to burst your bubble.
- 5:48That's like wanting a six-pack abs while
- 5:51eating anything you want.
- 5:53It doesn't exist because there is always
- 5:55a
- 5:56trade-off.
- 5:57Let me give you a real-world example,
- 5:58okay? So, a mean reversion trading
- 6:01system, they typically have a high
- 6:02winning rate, you know, 60 plus percent,
- 6:04sometimes even 70 percent, but a poor
- 6:07risk to reward. That's because a mean
- 6:09reversion trading system, it looks to
- 6:10buy stocks when it's oversold.
- 6:14And then sell when it makes
- 6:16a bounce higher. And usually the bounces
- 6:18are quite small. So, this type of
- 6:20trading system typically have a high
- 6:21winning rate, 60 plus 70% winning rate,
- 6:24but the average profit is smaller than
- 6:28the average loss. Why is that? That's
- 6:30because you're taking quick profits on
- 6:32the bounce.
- 6:33But when a stock doesn't bounce, it can
- 6:35keep falling
- 6:37and falling
- 6:38and falling. All right, just like my
- 6:39hairline, right? Started receding at 30,
- 6:42all right? 10 years later, it's still
- 6:43going down lower. So, in other words,
- 6:45you have a high winning rate, but a poor
- 6:47risk to reward ratio. Let me give you an
- 6:50example. For example, this is one of the
- 6:52mean reversion trading system that I've
- 6:54developed, and you can see that this
- 6:55system has a positive expectancy in the
- 6:57long run. You can see that.
- 6:59From 2000, right? To now, right? The
- 7:01equity curve is heading up in the right
- 7:03direction over time. Although, of
- 7:05course, you know, there's some bumps
- 7:06along the way, right? Like pullbacks,
- 7:08drawdowns along the way. And you can see
- 7:10that for this particular system, the
- 7:11winning rate is 66%. Can you see it?
- 7:16In the long run, it's about 66%. And if
- 7:18you look at the average profit
- 7:19percentage, it's about 4.1%.
- 7:22And the average loss percentage is 4.7,
- 7:25close to 4.8%. So, in other words, all
- 7:27right, your average loss is
- 7:30slightly bigger than your average
- 7:31profit. And again, as explained earlier,
- 7:33because sometimes when you buy a stock,
- 7:35it doesn't bounce, and it continue to,
- 7:36you know, hit down lower and lower over
- 7:38time.
- 7:39On the other hand, you have trend
- 7:41following, a type of trading system that
- 7:43looks to ride trends in the market.
- 7:46The winning rate for trend following is
- 7:48usually low, between 35 to 45% and
- 7:51you're wrong more often than you're
- 7:53right. It can feel like, you know,
- 7:54you're constantly getting punched by the
- 7:56market. All right, on Monday you lose,
- 7:58Tuesday you lose, Wednesday you lose,
- 8:00Thursday you check your account and your
- 8:01software ask you if you're okay. Even
- 8:03the software feels sorry for you.
- 8:06But when you do catch a trend, okay, the
- 8:08payoff is massive. Right? Your average
- 8:11profit will easily dwarf your average
- 8:13loss. One good trend following trade can
- 8:15pay off for multiple losses that you've
- 8:17incurred earlier. So, kind of similar to
- 8:19the fishing analogy that I shared with
- 8:21you earlier.
- 8:22So, in other words, a trend following
- 8:24system has a low winning rate but a
- 8:26favorable risk to reward ratio. Let me
- 8:28give you an example.
- 8:30So, this over here is a trend following
- 8:32system that I've developed and you can
- 8:34see again, this system has a positive
- 8:35expectancy in the long run. The equity
- 8:37curve is sloping up higher over time.
- 8:39And what I want to bring your attention
- 8:41to is over here.
- 8:44Average winning rate is about 45%
- 8:46in this case.
- 8:48And you can see that the average profit
- 8:49percentage for this is about 188%
- 8:52and your average loss percentage is 99
- 8:56percent, right? Don't don't don't get
- 8:57freaked out by the numbers up because
- 8:58with proper risk management and position
- 8:59sizing, you're not going to lose 100% of
- 9:01your account on each trade. But this is
- 9:03just the way the
- 9:05numbers are being reflected when we run
- 9:06the back test for the system. So, you
- 9:08can see over here, right? The message
- 9:10is clear. For this system, you have a
- 9:1345% winning rate but your gains are
- 9:16almost twice the size of your losses.
- 9:20So, this is why
- 9:21as a trend follower, you may not win
- 9:24often but when you win, you win big.
- 9:27So, here's the deal. You can't have both
- 9:29a high winning rate and a favorable risk
- 9:32to reward. There's always a trade-off.
- 9:35It's like marriage, you know, you can't
- 9:36have someone who is always right or you
- 9:39can have
- 9:40peace. Ask me how I know about it.
- 9:43You can't have both, right? Don't tell
- 9:45my wife I said that.
- 9:46This is why traders struggle, you know,
- 9:48they expect to win 80 90% of the time
- 9:50with an average of a 1:3, 1:4, 1:5 risk
- 9:52to reward ratio. It It doesn't exist.
- 9:55So, at this point, you've understood
- 9:57what is expectancy and why it's so
- 10:00important to have a profitable trading
- 10:01system. But still, it is not enough if
- 10:04you want to be a consistently profitable
- 10:06trader because you also need
- 10:08risk management, baby. So, risk
- 10:12management protects your downside no
- 10:14matter what happens, even if you have
- 10:1610 20 losing trades in a row,
- 10:19risk management is what helps you
- 10:21survive so you can live to fight another
- 10:23day because without it, even a
- 10:26profitable trading system, even a
- 10:28trading system that has a positive
- 10:30expectancy,
- 10:31will still fail. Let me give you an
- 10:34example. So, imagine this. Imagine there
- 10:37are two traders, John and Sally.
- 10:39And let's say they both have a $10,000
- 10:41trading account.
- 10:43They have a trading system that has a
- 10:4450% winning rate and an average of a 1:3
- 10:48risk reward ratio. This means if they
- 10:50risk uh
- 10:51a $1,000 on a trade, a 1:3 risk reward
- 10:54ratio means you'll get back $3,000 on
- 10:57your winning trades. So, you can see
- 10:58that clearly this trading system has an
- 11:00edge, right? You have a positive
- 11:01expectancy because your average gains is
- 11:04bigger than your average loss.
- 11:06And let's say John, you know, is the
- 11:08type of trader that is aggressive, you
- 11:10know, he he watches too many YouTube
- 11:12videos of guys standing in front of
- 11:14their rented Lamborghinis and telling
- 11:16you that fortune favors the bold, yeah?
- 11:19So, that's John. He risks $5,000 per
- 11:22trade. And then you have Sally, who is
- 11:24more conservative, risking $100 per
- 11:27trade.
- 11:28And then the next
- 11:3010 trades are as follows, okay? This uh
- 11:33is the outcome of the next 10 trades.
- 11:35So, you can see over here you have, you
- 11:36know, first few trades are lose, lose,
- 11:38lose, lose, lose, followed by wins.
- 11:40So, what is the outcome for both
- 11:42traders? So, if you look at first, let's
- 11:44look at John, shall we? Because
- 11:47John
- 11:48is the
- 11:49aggressive one. You can see that. First
- 11:51losing trade, he lose minus 5,000.
- 11:54Second losing trade, lose again minus
- 11:55another 5,000. And at this point, you
- 11:57can see that John has pretty much
- 12:00blown up, right? Because
- 12:02minus five, minus five, negative
- 12:04$10,000. And he start with $10,000,
- 12:06nothing left after two trades.
- 12:08On the other hand, let's say you have
- 12:09Sally.
- 12:11You can see that Sally risk $100 per
- 12:13trade, and the first five trades are
- 12:15losers, right? This five trades are
- 12:17losing trades. So, total for Sally,
- 12:18first five trades minus $500.
- 12:21And because
- 12:22she has proper risk management, she
- 12:25managed to survive and see better days
- 12:27ahead. And the next five trades are
- 12:29winning trades. And as you know,
- 12:32she gets an average of a one to three
- 12:33risk reward ratio. This means on
- 12:35average, her winning trades are three
- 12:37times the size of her losses. So, in
- 12:39total, she'll achieve about a positive
- 12:421,500 for
- 12:44her five trades, right? Each trade is
- 12:45about $300, 300, 300, 300, 300. So, net,
- 12:49right? Sally, you can see she's actually
- 12:51up $1,000
- 12:53after
- 12:5510 trades, whereas John has blown up
- 12:57over here.
- 12:59So, this is actually about a 10% gain
- 13:01for Sally.
- 13:02So,
- 13:04can you see how important this is? You
- 13:05can see that risk management is what
- 13:08will protect your downside, right? So,
- 13:09you can let the positive expectancy of
- 13:11your trading play out over time.
- 13:14So, how do you actually apply sound risk
- 13:16management so that you don't blow up
- 13:17your account like John? Well, this is
- 13:19where you need to use a technique called
- 13:22proper position sizing.
- 13:25So, this refers to buying the right
- 13:27number of shares according to your risk
- 13:29management. So, let me teach you this
- 13:31very useful technique.
- 13:33Especially if you trade stocks, right?
- 13:34So, the first step is this. Number one,
- 13:36you must define the amount to risk,
- 13:39usually 1 to 2% of your capital. So, let
- 13:41me say for example, let's say you have a
- 13:44$20,000 trading capital.
- 13:46And if you want to risk 1% of your
- 13:48account, this means 1% of $20,000 is
- 13:51$200. This means you want to
- 13:55buy the optimal number of shares such
- 13:58that if the trade hits your stop loss,
- 14:00you will lose not more than $200 per
- 14:02trade. So, this is the first step first
- 14:04step, right? To define the amount dollar
- 14:07amount to risk, which is usually 1 to 2%
- 14:09of your capital. So, another example,
- 14:11let's say you have, you know, $100,000.
- 14:13And if you're risking 2% of 100k, this
- 14:15means you can
- 14:17afford to lose up to $2,000 per trade.
- 14:20Step two.
- 14:22You then need to
- 14:24You then need to take the dollar amount
- 14:26that you want to risk divide by your
- 14:28entry minus your stop loss. So,
- 14:31So, let me give you a quick example. So,
- 14:33entry refers to the entry price you're
- 14:34entering the trade. Stop loss refers to
- 14:37the level that you want to exit your
- 14:38trade to cut your loss and move on.
- 14:40And this dollar amount to risk is pretty
- 14:42much defined over here in step one. So,
- 14:44let me give you an example so you can
- 14:45see how this works.
- 14:47So, let's say for example, you have a
- 14:48$100,000 trading account. You want to
- 14:51risk 1% of your capital on each trade.
- 14:53So, in other words, you want to risk
- 14:56and lose not more than $1,000 on the
- 14:58trade because 1% of $100,000 is $1,000.
- 15:02Let's say your entry price, you know, to
- 15:04place the trade is at $100. Maybe you
- 15:06want to buy a breakout at $100. And your
- 15:08stop loss is at $90. So, now the
- 15:10question is, how many shares should you
- 15:12buy? So, this is where again, step one,
- 15:15define the dollar amount to risk. So,
- 15:17just take 1%
- 15:18of $100,000 and you get
- 15:21$1,000. Step two,
- 15:24position size the formula is equal to
- 15:26the dollar amount that you want to risk,
- 15:27which is a thousand dollars over here,
- 15:29divided by your entry price minus your
- 15:31stop loss. And in this case, you get 100
- 15:34shares. Okay, so just plug in the
- 15:36formula, 1,000
- 15:38divided by 100 minus 90. 100 is from
- 15:41your entry price, 90 is from your stop
- 15:43loss, and you can
- 15:44get 100 shares. So, this means you can
- 15:46buy 100 shares of this stock
- 15:50at the at the price of $100. And if you
- 15:53were to hit your stop loss at $90, guess
- 15:55what? You will lose, right? About $1,000
- 15:58on this trade, which is the risk that
- 16:00you have defined at the start.
- 16:02Now, let me give you a another example
- 16:04so I can explain a key concept.
- 16:08Example two, right? Again, let's say you
- 16:09have a hundred thousand dollars trading
- 16:11account. You want to risk 1% of your
- 16:13capital.
- 16:14Entry price is 100 bucks, and this time
- 16:16around your stop loss is wider. Your
- 16:19stop loss now is at $80. How many shares
- 16:22can you buy?
- 16:23So, once again, plug in the formula,
- 16:25define the dollar amount to risk, which
- 16:26is a thousand dollars.
- 16:28Step two, your position size is defined
- 16:31by the amount to risk divided by your
- 16:33entry minus stop loss. And in this case,
- 16:35you realize that you can buy a total of
- 16:3850 shares.
- 16:40Okay, so do you see how how this works?
- 16:44If you recall earlier, you can buy 100
- 16:46shares because
- 16:48your stop loss level was at $90.
- 16:52See the difference?
- 16:54$90 stop loss, entry price is the same,
- 16:56and you can buy 100 shares.
- 16:58And in the second example, you can buy
- 17:0150 shares because this time around your
- 17:03stop loss got wider. Instead of 90
- 17:06bucks, now it's at $80. So, the message
- 17:08that I'm trying to bring across here is
- 17:10this, is that your position size depends
- 17:12on the size of your stop loss, whether
- 17:15how tight or how wide it is.
- 17:18A tighter stop loss means you can buy
- 17:20more shares, and a wider stops means you
- 17:22can buy fewer shares. And either way,
- 17:25the dollar amount you risk stays the
- 17:28same.
- 17:29Now, a mistake that many traders make is
- 17:31they have a habit of buying the same
- 17:34number of shares regardless of
- 17:38the stocks that they are trading. So,
- 17:40what I mean by this is that, you know,
- 17:42let's say they have a habit of always
- 17:43buying, you know, 100 shares. But, as
- 17:45you know, if you buy 100 shares for a
- 17:47stock like McDonald's versus 100 shares
- 17:50for a stock like Nvidia, you can see
- 17:52that your
- 17:54risk
- 17:56is not going to be constant because for
- 17:58Nvidia, buying 100 shares, the stock is
- 18:00more volatile. Usually, you would have a
- 18:02wider stop loss to take into account
- 18:04that volatility. And by using a wider
- 18:05stop loss and still buying that same 100
- 18:07shares, you could potentially lose more
- 18:09money compared to a more
- 18:12lower volatility stock like McDonald's,
- 18:14where you won't have such a huge stop
- 18:16loss. So, by using that fixed 100 shares
- 18:18across all the different stocks that
- 18:20you're trading, regardless of time frame
- 18:21and stuff like that, what's going to
- 18:22happen is that you realize that
- 18:24sometimes when you are wrong, your
- 18:26losses can far exceed your
- 18:28winners. Yeah? And there will also be
- 18:30times where sometimes when you are
- 18:31right, then you realize, "Why is my
- 18:32profit so so small?" Yeah? Because,
- 18:35again, position sizing. You need to
- 18:37adjust it according to the size of your
- 18:39stop loss, and your size of your stop
- 18:41loss is, you know, influenced by the
- 18:43volatility of the stock that you're
- 18:45trading.
- 18:46So, now, at this point, you've learned
- 18:47what is expectancy,
- 18:49risk management, and proper position
- 18:51sizing.
- 18:52So, however, I can tell you that, you
- 18:54know, after a few losses, many traders,
- 18:56they will start to doubt the trading
- 18:58system. They will second-guess their
- 18:59trades, and, you know, eventually
- 19:01abandon the trading system, right? I've
- 19:03been there myself. And why is that?
- 19:06That's because
- 19:08in the short run, your trading results
- 19:11is actually random. Let me explain. Now,
- 19:14imagine you toss a coin, right? A normal
- 19:18legit coin, right? Whether it's a dollar
- 19:20or 50 cents, doesn't matter. I'm sure
- 19:22you can agree that there is a 50% chance
- 19:24that coin will either come up head
- 19:27or tail, right? Duh.
- 19:29Now, let me ask you. If you toss the
- 19:31coin 10 times, okay? Just, you know, do
- 19:33it 10 times.
- 19:34Are you guaranteed to get five heads and
- 19:37five tails?
- 19:39Think about this. Think about this. I'll
- 19:41give you 5 seconds.
- 19:421 2 3 4 5, okay?
- 19:45And the answer is no. Of course not. You
- 19:47could get, you know, four head, six
- 19:49tails. You could could get three heads,
- 19:51seven tails,
- 19:53you know, and whatnot.
- 19:55So, you won't definitely get five heads
- 19:57and five tails. And
- 19:59why? Why is that so?
- 20:01And the reason is simple.
- 20:03It's because
- 20:05you didn't toss the coin
- 20:07enough.
- 20:08The frequency of your coin toss isn't
- 20:10So, let me give you an example so you
- 20:12know what I mean.
- 20:14So, after tossing a coin 10 times, you
- 20:16could get, you know, four heads and six
- 20:17tails. We call this a 40% hit rate, not
- 20:20a winning rate because, you know, it's
- 20:21not it's not trading or investing. So,
- 20:22we call this a 40% hit rate.
- 20:25And now, what happens if you now toss
- 20:27the coin 100 times? How would your hit
- 20:29rate change? Well, after 100 times, you
- 20:31probably will get something like
- 20:3345 heads and 55 tails, and that's about
- 20:36a 45%
- 20:38hit rate, right? With reference to the
- 20:40the number of times you get hit, right?
- 20:42So, just you take 45
- 20:44divide by the number of times you toss
- 20:46the coin, you get 45%.
- 20:49And what if you now toss the coin 1,000
- 20:52times? How will your hit rate change?
- 20:56Well, in this case, you get something
- 20:57like, you know, possibly 480 heads and
- 21:00520 tails, a 48% hit rate.
- 21:04And do you do you do you see the
- 21:06pattern?
- 21:07Right? Do you see the pattern? You can
- 21:09see that the more time you flip the
- 21:10coin, the closer you get to that 50%
- 21:14probability. And this is a very
- 21:16important
- 21:17concept. This is a concept that we call
- 21:21the law of large number.
- 21:23Now, the law of large number applies to
- 21:25anything that deals with probabilities,
- 21:27whether you're tossing a coin, whether
- 21:29you're investing, whether you're
- 21:31trading.
- 21:32And this is a concept where
- 21:35in the short run, your results, your
- 21:37trading results is actually random.
- 21:39And it's only in the long run, it'll
- 21:41align towards your trading system's
- 21:43expectancy.
- 21:45So, the message that I want to bring
- 21:47over here is that don't abandon your
- 21:48trading system system, especially if you
- 21:50know that it's a proven trading system
- 21:51backed by data. Don't abandon it after a
- 21:53few losses. Because the outcome is is
- 21:56random. You can have a trading system
- 21:57with a 70% winning rate, but maybe you
- 22:00take 10 trades, you could have
- 22:01experienced
- 22:03six losses and four winners, and you
- 22:04think it's only a 40% winning rate. But
- 22:06no, it's because you didn't execute
- 22:09enough trades for your trading system
- 22:12expectancy to play out. So, don't
- 22:13abandon the the system after a few
- 22:15losses. You need time. You need to give
- 22:17your trading system time
- 22:19for its edge to play out. You with me?
- 22:22Do you agree? Right?
- 22:24Smash the thumbs up button and hit
- 22:25subscribe, right, if you do.
- 22:27At this point, you have learned quite a
- 22:29few mathematical concepts and
- 22:31techniques. So, let me share with you a
- 22:34recap Give you a quick recap of what
- 22:36we've covered today.
- 22:37First, we talked about the expectancy.
- 22:39What is expectancy and the formula
- 22:40behind it? So, as you've learned, right,
- 22:42your winning rate, your risk-to-reward
- 22:44ratio on its own, these metrics are, you
- 22:46know, they are
- 22:47useless. It doesn't give you the full
- 22:49picture. What you need to know is the
- 22:51expectancy, whether your system has a
- 22:53positive expectancy or not. And that
- 22:55formula is defined by this: your winning
- 22:57percentage multiplied by your average
- 22:59gain minus your losing percentage
- 23:00multiplied by your average loss. And if
- 23:02you have a positive expectancy, it means
- 23:04that you have an edge in the markets and
- 23:06you're going to make money in the long
- 23:07run when you have a trading system that
- 23:09gives you a positive expectancy.
- 23:12Then you've learned that having
- 23:13expectancy is one thing, but it's not
- 23:15enough because you also need sound risk
- 23:17management to protect your downside so
- 23:18you can leave to fight another day, so
- 23:21you can survive the drawdown. Yeah? And
- 23:24the way we manage our risk is through
- 23:26proper position sizing and I explained
- 23:28to you the formula, the math behind it.
- 23:31Step one is to define the dollar amount
- 23:33to risk, usually about 1 to 2% of your
- 23:35trading capital. Once you've done that,
- 23:37then you need to calculate your position
- 23:39size using this formula over here, which
- 23:42is the dollar amount that you want to
- 23:43risk divided by your entry minus your
- 23:45stop loss. And you've learned that
- 23:47usually when you have a wider stop loss,
- 23:49you would
- 23:50have a smaller position size. And if
- 23:52your stop loss is tighter,
- 23:54you would have a larger position size.
- 23:57And finally, we've also talked about the
- 23:59law of large numbers. Right? This is
- 24:01important because in the short run your
- 24:03trading results
- 24:04is random, right? And in the in the long
- 24:06run you're aligned towards your trading
- 24:07system expectancy. So don't abandon your
- 24:10system, you know, just because of a few
- 24:11losing trades because you are then, you
- 24:13know, kind of like giving up too early.
- 24:15Yeah? So
- 24:18this is a quick recap. And for those of
- 24:20you who are wondering, "Noraina, you
- 24:21know, how do I then, you know, get, you
- 24:23know, trading systems that work? How do
- 24:24I know that my trading system actually
- 24:26has an edge in the market?" Well, if you
- 24:28feel that way, then I've written a book
- 24:30over here called Trading Systems That
- 24:32Work. I'll put the link somewhere below
- 24:33this video so you can grab a copy or
- 24:35just go down to Trading Systems
- 24:37Book.com. And this book, you'll learn
- 24:40not one, not two, but three proven
- 24:41trading systems that work. They're all
- 24:43backed by data so you can actually
- 24:45verify it on your own. And
- 24:48here's the deal, right? You know,
- 24:50I'm going to, you know, make this
- 24:51risk-free for you. You can, you know,
- 24:53grab a copy of this book and read it and
- 24:56if you don't get value out of it, right?
- 24:57You know, just feel free to drop us an
- 24:59email, right?
- 25:00Within the first 180 days and we'll
- 25:02happily refund you in full and you can
- 25:03still, you know, keep the book, right?
- 25:05Just as our way of, you know, saying
- 25:06thank you, right? For being supportive
- 25:08of our work over the years. So, I'll put
- 25:09the link somewhere somewhere below this
- 25:11video so you can grab a copy and with
- 25:12that said, I wish you good luck, good
- 25:14trading. I'll be talking to you soon.
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