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The Math Behind Profitable Trading — Transcript

by Rayner Teo · 4,611 words · 719 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Hey, hey, what's up, my friend? So, do
  2. 0:03you know there there is a legendary
  3. 0:05trader called Dan Zanger who
  4. 0:09achieved a 29,233%
  5. 0:13return over a 1-year period trading
  6. 0:16chart patterns.
  7. 0:17And you also have this guy called Andrea
  8. 0:21Unger who won the World Cup of Trading
  9. 0:24four times using algorithms.
  10. 0:27And finally,
  11. 0:29a market wizard called Ed Seykota who
  12. 0:32took $5,000 and turned it into 16
  13. 0:35million as a trend follower.
  14. 0:38These are three different traders with
  15. 0:41different strategies, personalities, and
  16. 0:44approaches towards the market.
  17. 0:47But they all understood one thing that
  18. 0:4995% of traders never figure out.
  19. 0:52It's this. It's not a secret indicator.
  20. 0:54It's not some magic candlestick pattern,
  21. 0:56and it's not discipline.
  22. 0:58It is this, the math behind profitable
  23. 1:02trading.
  24. 1:03And once you understand this math,
  25. 1:06you'll see why a trading system with a
  26. 1:0840% winning rate can absolutely crush
  27. 1:12a system with an 80% winning rate.
  28. 1:14Right? No, I haven't lost my mind. I
  29. 1:16just lost my hair. The mind is still
  30. 1:18intact. So, you ready? Then let's get
  31. 1:20started. Let me ask you, if I give you a
  32. 1:23trading system that has a 80% winning
  33. 1:26rate, meaning you win 80% of the time,
  34. 1:29will you trade it?
  35. 1:31Well, many traders would say, "Hell yes,
  36. 1:33Rayner. Give me that system. Take my
  37. 1:34money. Take my wife." Well, okay. Maybe
  38. 1:37not my wife, but you get the idea. So,
  39. 1:39but what if I tell you that this same
  40. 1:41system could still
  41. 1:43cause you to lose money in the long run.
  42. 1:45How is that possible?
  43. 1:47Because your winning rate is only half
  44. 1:51the story.
  45. 1:52And this is where most traders get it
  46. 1:54wrong. So, what I'm about to share with
  47. 1:56you is the single most important number
  48. 2:00in your trading.
  49. 2:01Your expectancy.
  50. 2:03So, let me explain to you how this
  51. 2:05works.
  52. 2:06So, your expectancy can be defined using
  53. 2:09this formula over here, right? Don't
  54. 2:11don't be alarmed. I'll explain it to you
  55. 2:13step by step so that, you know, even a
  56. 2:1410-year-old can understand. So,
  57. 2:16expectancy, the formula is defined by
  58. 2:18your winning percentage multiplied by
  59. 2:20your average gain minus your losing
  60. 2:23percentage multiplied by your average
  61. 2:25loss. So, your winning percentage
  62. 2:27refers to, you know, how often you win.
  63. 2:29So, if out of 10 trades you take, you
  64. 2:32have six winners, four losers, it means
  65. 2:34that you have a 60% winning rate, yeah?
  66. 2:37And losing percentage is just how often
  67. 2:39you lose, and in this case you have a
  68. 2:4040% losing rate since you lost four
  69. 2:43times out of 10.
  70. 2:44Now, what about your average profit? How
  71. 2:46do you define the average size of your
  72. 2:49profit?
  73. 2:50Again, let's say after 10 trades you
  74. 2:52made $1,000 after 10 trades. So, this
  75. 2:55means that your average profit per trade
  76. 2:57is $1,000 divided by 10 because you took
  77. 2:5910 trades. So, average profit is $100,
  78. 3:02yeah? So, it is just the same for your
  79. 3:05average loss. So, now let me walk you
  80. 3:07through a couple of examples so you can
  81. 3:09see this concept in action.
  82. 3:11So, the first example, let's say you
  83. 3:14have a trading system that has a 80%
  84. 3:17winning rate.
  85. 3:18Your average gain per trade is $10.
  86. 3:22And your losing rate is 20%.
  87. 3:24And your average loss is $100. So, what
  88. 3:27is your expectancy?
  89. 3:30So, if you plug in the formula, your
  90. 3:32expectancy is
  91. 3:34You can see your 80% over here is 0.8
  92. 3:36multiplied by 10, which is your average
  93. 3:38gain over here, minus 0.2, which is your
  94. 3:41losing rate from this figure here, and
  95. 3:44your average loss is $100, and then you
  96. 3:46plug in over here. And what you realize
  97. 3:48is that your expectancy is minus $12.
  98. 3:52So,
  99. 3:53what does this negative $12 mean?
  100. 3:57This means that you can expect to lose
  101. 3:59an average of $12 per trade.
  102. 4:03And if you take 100 trades, you would be
  103. 4:07roughly down about $1,200 after 100
  104. 4:10trades. So, as you can see, even though
  105. 4:13you win 80% of the time, the few losses
  106. 4:16that you take, they're so devastating
  107. 4:18that they actually wiped out all your
  108. 4:20profits and more.
  109. 4:22So, it's like being an amazing cook, an
  110. 4:24amazing chef, you know, who
  111. 4:26occasionally, you know, burns down the
  112. 4:28entire house. Sure, you know, eight out
  113. 4:29of 10 times you cook
  114. 4:31amazing, good-tasting, delicious food.
  115. 4:34But the other two times you need to call
  116. 4:35on the fire department to put out the
  117. 4:37fire in your house.
  118. 4:38As you can tell, having a positive
  119. 4:40expectancy, having an edge in the
  120. 4:41markets is so, so, so important. So,
  121. 4:43this is why I actually wrote this book
  122. 4:46called Trading Systems That Work. You
  123. 4:48can grab a copy for the link in the
  124. 4:50description or go down to
  125. 4:51tradingsystemsbook.com
  126. 4:53and grab a copy. So, over here
  127. 4:56you will learn not one, not two, but
  128. 4:57three proven trading systems that work.
  129. 5:00You will learn in this case a mean
  130. 5:01reversion system here. You'll learn a
  131. 5:03trend-following system and a breakout
  132. 5:05trading system. I'll give you the exact
  133. 5:07trading rules along with the back-tested
  134. 5:09data so you can actually verify these
  135. 5:11findings on your own and don't take my
  136. 5:12word for it. And when you grab a copy of
  137. 5:15this book today, you also get a number
  138. 5:16of bonuses like the TradingView setup,
  139. 5:18brokerage account setup, risk management
  140. 5:20training, a community, private
  141. 5:22community, and a trading systems cheat
  142. 5:24sheet. So, all this comes along for free
  143. 5:26when you grab a copy of this book called
  144. 5:28Trading Systems That Work. So, if you're
  145. 5:29interested, I'll put the link somewhere
  146. 5:30below this video and you can grab a
  147. 5:32copy. Now, you might be thinking, "Oh,
  148. 5:35Rayner, if I just find a trading system
  149. 5:37with the 80 90% winning rate and a
  150. 5:40favorable risk to reward where I risk a
  151. 5:42dollar and make back $3 or more, I'll be
  152. 5:44rich."
  153. 5:46Sorry to burst your bubble.
  154. 5:48That's like wanting a six-pack abs while
  155. 5:51eating anything you want.
  156. 5:53It doesn't exist because there is always
  157. 5:55a
  158. 5:56trade-off.
  159. 5:57Let me give you a real-world example,
  160. 5:58okay? So, a mean reversion trading
  161. 6:01system, they typically have a high
  162. 6:02winning rate, you know, 60 plus percent,
  163. 6:04sometimes even 70 percent, but a poor
  164. 6:07risk to reward. That's because a mean
  165. 6:09reversion trading system, it looks to
  166. 6:10buy stocks when it's oversold.
  167. 6:14And then sell when it makes
  168. 6:16a bounce higher. And usually the bounces
  169. 6:18are quite small. So, this type of
  170. 6:20trading system typically have a high
  171. 6:21winning rate, 60 plus 70% winning rate,
  172. 6:24but the average profit is smaller than
  173. 6:28the average loss. Why is that? That's
  174. 6:30because you're taking quick profits on
  175. 6:32the bounce.
  176. 6:33But when a stock doesn't bounce, it can
  177. 6:35keep falling
  178. 6:37and falling
  179. 6:38and falling. All right, just like my
  180. 6:39hairline, right? Started receding at 30,
  181. 6:42all right? 10 years later, it's still
  182. 6:43going down lower. So, in other words,
  183. 6:45you have a high winning rate, but a poor
  184. 6:47risk to reward ratio. Let me give you an
  185. 6:50example. For example, this is one of the
  186. 6:52mean reversion trading system that I've
  187. 6:54developed, and you can see that this
  188. 6:55system has a positive expectancy in the
  189. 6:57long run. You can see that.
  190. 6:59From 2000, right? To now, right? The
  191. 7:01equity curve is heading up in the right
  192. 7:03direction over time. Although, of
  193. 7:05course, you know, there's some bumps
  194. 7:06along the way, right? Like pullbacks,
  195. 7:08drawdowns along the way. And you can see
  196. 7:10that for this particular system, the
  197. 7:11winning rate is 66%. Can you see it?
  198. 7:16In the long run, it's about 66%. And if
  199. 7:18you look at the average profit
  200. 7:19percentage, it's about 4.1%.
  201. 7:22And the average loss percentage is 4.7,
  202. 7:25close to 4.8%. So, in other words, all
  203. 7:27right, your average loss is
  204. 7:30slightly bigger than your average
  205. 7:31profit. And again, as explained earlier,
  206. 7:33because sometimes when you buy a stock,
  207. 7:35it doesn't bounce, and it continue to,
  208. 7:36you know, hit down lower and lower over
  209. 7:38time.
  210. 7:39On the other hand, you have trend
  211. 7:41following, a type of trading system that
  212. 7:43looks to ride trends in the market.
  213. 7:46The winning rate for trend following is
  214. 7:48usually low, between 35 to 45% and
  215. 7:51you're wrong more often than you're
  216. 7:53right. It can feel like, you know,
  217. 7:54you're constantly getting punched by the
  218. 7:56market. All right, on Monday you lose,
  219. 7:58Tuesday you lose, Wednesday you lose,
  220. 8:00Thursday you check your account and your
  221. 8:01software ask you if you're okay. Even
  222. 8:03the software feels sorry for you.
  223. 8:06But when you do catch a trend, okay, the
  224. 8:08payoff is massive. Right? Your average
  225. 8:11profit will easily dwarf your average
  226. 8:13loss. One good trend following trade can
  227. 8:15pay off for multiple losses that you've
  228. 8:17incurred earlier. So, kind of similar to
  229. 8:19the fishing analogy that I shared with
  230. 8:21you earlier.
  231. 8:22So, in other words, a trend following
  232. 8:24system has a low winning rate but a
  233. 8:26favorable risk to reward ratio. Let me
  234. 8:28give you an example.
  235. 8:30So, this over here is a trend following
  236. 8:32system that I've developed and you can
  237. 8:34see again, this system has a positive
  238. 8:35expectancy in the long run. The equity
  239. 8:37curve is sloping up higher over time.
  240. 8:39And what I want to bring your attention
  241. 8:41to is over here.
  242. 8:44Average winning rate is about 45%
  243. 8:46in this case.
  244. 8:48And you can see that the average profit
  245. 8:49percentage for this is about 188%
  246. 8:52and your average loss percentage is 99
  247. 8:56percent, right? Don't don't don't get
  248. 8:57freaked out by the numbers up because
  249. 8:58with proper risk management and position
  250. 8:59sizing, you're not going to lose 100% of
  251. 9:01your account on each trade. But this is
  252. 9:03just the way the
  253. 9:05numbers are being reflected when we run
  254. 9:06the back test for the system. So, you
  255. 9:08can see over here, right? The message
  256. 9:10is clear. For this system, you have a
  257. 9:1345% winning rate but your gains are
  258. 9:16almost twice the size of your losses.
  259. 9:20So, this is why
  260. 9:21as a trend follower, you may not win
  261. 9:24often but when you win, you win big.
  262. 9:27So, here's the deal. You can't have both
  263. 9:29a high winning rate and a favorable risk
  264. 9:32to reward. There's always a trade-off.
  265. 9:35It's like marriage, you know, you can't
  266. 9:36have someone who is always right or you
  267. 9:39can have
  268. 9:40peace. Ask me how I know about it.
  269. 9:43You can't have both, right? Don't tell
  270. 9:45my wife I said that.
  271. 9:46This is why traders struggle, you know,
  272. 9:48they expect to win 80 90% of the time
  273. 9:50with an average of a 1:3, 1:4, 1:5 risk
  274. 9:52to reward ratio. It It doesn't exist.
  275. 9:55So, at this point, you've understood
  276. 9:57what is expectancy and why it's so
  277. 10:00important to have a profitable trading
  278. 10:01system. But still, it is not enough if
  279. 10:04you want to be a consistently profitable
  280. 10:06trader because you also need
  281. 10:08risk management, baby. So, risk
  282. 10:12management protects your downside no
  283. 10:14matter what happens, even if you have
  284. 10:1610 20 losing trades in a row,
  285. 10:19risk management is what helps you
  286. 10:21survive so you can live to fight another
  287. 10:23day because without it, even a
  288. 10:26profitable trading system, even a
  289. 10:28trading system that has a positive
  290. 10:30expectancy,
  291. 10:31will still fail. Let me give you an
  292. 10:34example. So, imagine this. Imagine there
  293. 10:37are two traders, John and Sally.
  294. 10:39And let's say they both have a $10,000
  295. 10:41trading account.
  296. 10:43They have a trading system that has a
  297. 10:4450% winning rate and an average of a 1:3
  298. 10:48risk reward ratio. This means if they
  299. 10:50risk uh
  300. 10:51a $1,000 on a trade, a 1:3 risk reward
  301. 10:54ratio means you'll get back $3,000 on
  302. 10:57your winning trades. So, you can see
  303. 10:58that clearly this trading system has an
  304. 11:00edge, right? You have a positive
  305. 11:01expectancy because your average gains is
  306. 11:04bigger than your average loss.
  307. 11:06And let's say John, you know, is the
  308. 11:08type of trader that is aggressive, you
  309. 11:10know, he he watches too many YouTube
  310. 11:12videos of guys standing in front of
  311. 11:14their rented Lamborghinis and telling
  312. 11:16you that fortune favors the bold, yeah?
  313. 11:19So, that's John. He risks $5,000 per
  314. 11:22trade. And then you have Sally, who is
  315. 11:24more conservative, risking $100 per
  316. 11:27trade.
  317. 11:28And then the next
  318. 11:3010 trades are as follows, okay? This uh
  319. 11:33is the outcome of the next 10 trades.
  320. 11:35So, you can see over here you have, you
  321. 11:36know, first few trades are lose, lose,
  322. 11:38lose, lose, lose, followed by wins.
  323. 11:40So, what is the outcome for both
  324. 11:42traders? So, if you look at first, let's
  325. 11:44look at John, shall we? Because
  326. 11:47John
  327. 11:48is the
  328. 11:49aggressive one. You can see that. First
  329. 11:51losing trade, he lose minus 5,000.
  330. 11:54Second losing trade, lose again minus
  331. 11:55another 5,000. And at this point, you
  332. 11:57can see that John has pretty much
  333. 12:00blown up, right? Because
  334. 12:02minus five, minus five, negative
  335. 12:04$10,000. And he start with $10,000,
  336. 12:06nothing left after two trades.
  337. 12:08On the other hand, let's say you have
  338. 12:09Sally.
  339. 12:11You can see that Sally risk $100 per
  340. 12:13trade, and the first five trades are
  341. 12:15losers, right? This five trades are
  342. 12:17losing trades. So, total for Sally,
  343. 12:18first five trades minus $500.
  344. 12:21And because
  345. 12:22she has proper risk management, she
  346. 12:25managed to survive and see better days
  347. 12:27ahead. And the next five trades are
  348. 12:29winning trades. And as you know,
  349. 12:32she gets an average of a one to three
  350. 12:33risk reward ratio. This means on
  351. 12:35average, her winning trades are three
  352. 12:37times the size of her losses. So, in
  353. 12:39total, she'll achieve about a positive
  354. 12:421,500 for
  355. 12:44her five trades, right? Each trade is
  356. 12:45about $300, 300, 300, 300, 300. So, net,
  357. 12:49right? Sally, you can see she's actually
  358. 12:51up $1,000
  359. 12:53after
  360. 12:5510 trades, whereas John has blown up
  361. 12:57over here.
  362. 12:59So, this is actually about a 10% gain
  363. 13:01for Sally.
  364. 13:02So,
  365. 13:04can you see how important this is? You
  366. 13:05can see that risk management is what
  367. 13:08will protect your downside, right? So,
  368. 13:09you can let the positive expectancy of
  369. 13:11your trading play out over time.
  370. 13:14So, how do you actually apply sound risk
  371. 13:16management so that you don't blow up
  372. 13:17your account like John? Well, this is
  373. 13:19where you need to use a technique called
  374. 13:22proper position sizing.
  375. 13:25So, this refers to buying the right
  376. 13:27number of shares according to your risk
  377. 13:29management. So, let me teach you this
  378. 13:31very useful technique.
  379. 13:33Especially if you trade stocks, right?
  380. 13:34So, the first step is this. Number one,
  381. 13:36you must define the amount to risk,
  382. 13:39usually 1 to 2% of your capital. So, let
  383. 13:41me say for example, let's say you have a
  384. 13:44$20,000 trading capital.
  385. 13:46And if you want to risk 1% of your
  386. 13:48account, this means 1% of $20,000 is
  387. 13:51$200. This means you want to
  388. 13:55buy the optimal number of shares such
  389. 13:58that if the trade hits your stop loss,
  390. 14:00you will lose not more than $200 per
  391. 14:02trade. So, this is the first step first
  392. 14:04step, right? To define the amount dollar
  393. 14:07amount to risk, which is usually 1 to 2%
  394. 14:09of your capital. So, another example,
  395. 14:11let's say you have, you know, $100,000.
  396. 14:13And if you're risking 2% of 100k, this
  397. 14:15means you can
  398. 14:17afford to lose up to $2,000 per trade.
  399. 14:20Step two.
  400. 14:22You then need to
  401. 14:24You then need to take the dollar amount
  402. 14:26that you want to risk divide by your
  403. 14:28entry minus your stop loss. So,
  404. 14:31So, let me give you a quick example. So,
  405. 14:33entry refers to the entry price you're
  406. 14:34entering the trade. Stop loss refers to
  407. 14:37the level that you want to exit your
  408. 14:38trade to cut your loss and move on.
  409. 14:40And this dollar amount to risk is pretty
  410. 14:42much defined over here in step one. So,
  411. 14:44let me give you an example so you can
  412. 14:45see how this works.
  413. 14:47So, let's say for example, you have a
  414. 14:48$100,000 trading account. You want to
  415. 14:51risk 1% of your capital on each trade.
  416. 14:53So, in other words, you want to risk
  417. 14:56and lose not more than $1,000 on the
  418. 14:58trade because 1% of $100,000 is $1,000.
  419. 15:02Let's say your entry price, you know, to
  420. 15:04place the trade is at $100. Maybe you
  421. 15:06want to buy a breakout at $100. And your
  422. 15:08stop loss is at $90. So, now the
  423. 15:10question is, how many shares should you
  424. 15:12buy? So, this is where again, step one,
  425. 15:15define the dollar amount to risk. So,
  426. 15:17just take 1%
  427. 15:18of $100,000 and you get
  428. 15:21$1,000. Step two,
  429. 15:24position size the formula is equal to
  430. 15:26the dollar amount that you want to risk,
  431. 15:27which is a thousand dollars over here,
  432. 15:29divided by your entry price minus your
  433. 15:31stop loss. And in this case, you get 100
  434. 15:34shares. Okay, so just plug in the
  435. 15:36formula, 1,000
  436. 15:38divided by 100 minus 90. 100 is from
  437. 15:41your entry price, 90 is from your stop
  438. 15:43loss, and you can
  439. 15:44get 100 shares. So, this means you can
  440. 15:46buy 100 shares of this stock
  441. 15:50at the at the price of $100. And if you
  442. 15:53were to hit your stop loss at $90, guess
  443. 15:55what? You will lose, right? About $1,000
  444. 15:58on this trade, which is the risk that
  445. 16:00you have defined at the start.
  446. 16:02Now, let me give you a another example
  447. 16:04so I can explain a key concept.
  448. 16:08Example two, right? Again, let's say you
  449. 16:09have a hundred thousand dollars trading
  450. 16:11account. You want to risk 1% of your
  451. 16:13capital.
  452. 16:14Entry price is 100 bucks, and this time
  453. 16:16around your stop loss is wider. Your
  454. 16:19stop loss now is at $80. How many shares
  455. 16:22can you buy?
  456. 16:23So, once again, plug in the formula,
  457. 16:25define the dollar amount to risk, which
  458. 16:26is a thousand dollars.
  459. 16:28Step two, your position size is defined
  460. 16:31by the amount to risk divided by your
  461. 16:33entry minus stop loss. And in this case,
  462. 16:35you realize that you can buy a total of
  463. 16:3850 shares.
  464. 16:40Okay, so do you see how how this works?
  465. 16:44If you recall earlier, you can buy 100
  466. 16:46shares because
  467. 16:48your stop loss level was at $90.
  468. 16:52See the difference?
  469. 16:54$90 stop loss, entry price is the same,
  470. 16:56and you can buy 100 shares.
  471. 16:58And in the second example, you can buy
  472. 17:0150 shares because this time around your
  473. 17:03stop loss got wider. Instead of 90
  474. 17:06bucks, now it's at $80. So, the message
  475. 17:08that I'm trying to bring across here is
  476. 17:10this, is that your position size depends
  477. 17:12on the size of your stop loss, whether
  478. 17:15how tight or how wide it is.
  479. 17:18A tighter stop loss means you can buy
  480. 17:20more shares, and a wider stops means you
  481. 17:22can buy fewer shares. And either way,
  482. 17:25the dollar amount you risk stays the
  483. 17:28same.
  484. 17:29Now, a mistake that many traders make is
  485. 17:31they have a habit of buying the same
  486. 17:34number of shares regardless of
  487. 17:38the stocks that they are trading. So,
  488. 17:40what I mean by this is that, you know,
  489. 17:42let's say they have a habit of always
  490. 17:43buying, you know, 100 shares. But, as
  491. 17:45you know, if you buy 100 shares for a
  492. 17:47stock like McDonald's versus 100 shares
  493. 17:50for a stock like Nvidia, you can see
  494. 17:52that your
  495. 17:54risk
  496. 17:56is not going to be constant because for
  497. 17:58Nvidia, buying 100 shares, the stock is
  498. 18:00more volatile. Usually, you would have a
  499. 18:02wider stop loss to take into account
  500. 18:04that volatility. And by using a wider
  501. 18:05stop loss and still buying that same 100
  502. 18:07shares, you could potentially lose more
  503. 18:09money compared to a more
  504. 18:12lower volatility stock like McDonald's,
  505. 18:14where you won't have such a huge stop
  506. 18:16loss. So, by using that fixed 100 shares
  507. 18:18across all the different stocks that
  508. 18:20you're trading, regardless of time frame
  509. 18:21and stuff like that, what's going to
  510. 18:22happen is that you realize that
  511. 18:24sometimes when you are wrong, your
  512. 18:26losses can far exceed your
  513. 18:28winners. Yeah? And there will also be
  514. 18:30times where sometimes when you are
  515. 18:31right, then you realize, "Why is my
  516. 18:32profit so so small?" Yeah? Because,
  517. 18:35again, position sizing. You need to
  518. 18:37adjust it according to the size of your
  519. 18:39stop loss, and your size of your stop
  520. 18:41loss is, you know, influenced by the
  521. 18:43volatility of the stock that you're
  522. 18:45trading.
  523. 18:46So, now, at this point, you've learned
  524. 18:47what is expectancy,
  525. 18:49risk management, and proper position
  526. 18:51sizing.
  527. 18:52So, however, I can tell you that, you
  528. 18:54know, after a few losses, many traders,
  529. 18:56they will start to doubt the trading
  530. 18:58system. They will second-guess their
  531. 18:59trades, and, you know, eventually
  532. 19:01abandon the trading system, right? I've
  533. 19:03been there myself. And why is that?
  534. 19:06That's because
  535. 19:08in the short run, your trading results
  536. 19:11is actually random. Let me explain. Now,
  537. 19:14imagine you toss a coin, right? A normal
  538. 19:18legit coin, right? Whether it's a dollar
  539. 19:20or 50 cents, doesn't matter. I'm sure
  540. 19:22you can agree that there is a 50% chance
  541. 19:24that coin will either come up head
  542. 19:27or tail, right? Duh.
  543. 19:29Now, let me ask you. If you toss the
  544. 19:31coin 10 times, okay? Just, you know, do
  545. 19:33it 10 times.
  546. 19:34Are you guaranteed to get five heads and
  547. 19:37five tails?
  548. 19:39Think about this. Think about this. I'll
  549. 19:41give you 5 seconds.
  550. 19:421 2 3 4 5, okay?
  551. 19:45And the answer is no. Of course not. You
  552. 19:47could get, you know, four head, six
  553. 19:49tails. You could could get three heads,
  554. 19:51seven tails,
  555. 19:53you know, and whatnot.
  556. 19:55So, you won't definitely get five heads
  557. 19:57and five tails. And
  558. 19:59why? Why is that so?
  559. 20:01And the reason is simple.
  560. 20:03It's because
  561. 20:05you didn't toss the coin
  562. 20:07enough.
  563. 20:08The frequency of your coin toss isn't
  564. 20:10So, let me give you an example so you
  565. 20:12know what I mean.
  566. 20:14So, after tossing a coin 10 times, you
  567. 20:16could get, you know, four heads and six
  568. 20:17tails. We call this a 40% hit rate, not
  569. 20:20a winning rate because, you know, it's
  570. 20:21not it's not trading or investing. So,
  571. 20:22we call this a 40% hit rate.
  572. 20:25And now, what happens if you now toss
  573. 20:27the coin 100 times? How would your hit
  574. 20:29rate change? Well, after 100 times, you
  575. 20:31probably will get something like
  576. 20:3345 heads and 55 tails, and that's about
  577. 20:36a 45%
  578. 20:38hit rate, right? With reference to the
  579. 20:40the number of times you get hit, right?
  580. 20:42So, just you take 45
  581. 20:44divide by the number of times you toss
  582. 20:46the coin, you get 45%.
  583. 20:49And what if you now toss the coin 1,000
  584. 20:52times? How will your hit rate change?
  585. 20:56Well, in this case, you get something
  586. 20:57like, you know, possibly 480 heads and
  587. 21:00520 tails, a 48% hit rate.
  588. 21:04And do you do you do you see the
  589. 21:06pattern?
  590. 21:07Right? Do you see the pattern? You can
  591. 21:09see that the more time you flip the
  592. 21:10coin, the closer you get to that 50%
  593. 21:14probability. And this is a very
  594. 21:16important
  595. 21:17concept. This is a concept that we call
  596. 21:21the law of large number.
  597. 21:23Now, the law of large number applies to
  598. 21:25anything that deals with probabilities,
  599. 21:27whether you're tossing a coin, whether
  600. 21:29you're investing, whether you're
  601. 21:31trading.
  602. 21:32And this is a concept where
  603. 21:35in the short run, your results, your
  604. 21:37trading results is actually random.
  605. 21:39And it's only in the long run, it'll
  606. 21:41align towards your trading system's
  607. 21:43expectancy.
  608. 21:45So, the message that I want to bring
  609. 21:47over here is that don't abandon your
  610. 21:48trading system system, especially if you
  611. 21:50know that it's a proven trading system
  612. 21:51backed by data. Don't abandon it after a
  613. 21:53few losses. Because the outcome is is
  614. 21:56random. You can have a trading system
  615. 21:57with a 70% winning rate, but maybe you
  616. 22:00take 10 trades, you could have
  617. 22:01experienced
  618. 22:03six losses and four winners, and you
  619. 22:04think it's only a 40% winning rate. But
  620. 22:06no, it's because you didn't execute
  621. 22:09enough trades for your trading system
  622. 22:12expectancy to play out. So, don't
  623. 22:13abandon the the system after a few
  624. 22:15losses. You need time. You need to give
  625. 22:17your trading system time
  626. 22:19for its edge to play out. You with me?
  627. 22:22Do you agree? Right?
  628. 22:24Smash the thumbs up button and hit
  629. 22:25subscribe, right, if you do.
  630. 22:27At this point, you have learned quite a
  631. 22:29few mathematical concepts and
  632. 22:31techniques. So, let me share with you a
  633. 22:34recap Give you a quick recap of what
  634. 22:36we've covered today.
  635. 22:37First, we talked about the expectancy.
  636. 22:39What is expectancy and the formula
  637. 22:40behind it? So, as you've learned, right,
  638. 22:42your winning rate, your risk-to-reward
  639. 22:44ratio on its own, these metrics are, you
  640. 22:46know, they are
  641. 22:47useless. It doesn't give you the full
  642. 22:49picture. What you need to know is the
  643. 22:51expectancy, whether your system has a
  644. 22:53positive expectancy or not. And that
  645. 22:55formula is defined by this: your winning
  646. 22:57percentage multiplied by your average
  647. 22:59gain minus your losing percentage
  648. 23:00multiplied by your average loss. And if
  649. 23:02you have a positive expectancy, it means
  650. 23:04that you have an edge in the markets and
  651. 23:06you're going to make money in the long
  652. 23:07run when you have a trading system that
  653. 23:09gives you a positive expectancy.
  654. 23:12Then you've learned that having
  655. 23:13expectancy is one thing, but it's not
  656. 23:15enough because you also need sound risk
  657. 23:17management to protect your downside so
  658. 23:18you can leave to fight another day, so
  659. 23:21you can survive the drawdown. Yeah? And
  660. 23:24the way we manage our risk is through
  661. 23:26proper position sizing and I explained
  662. 23:28to you the formula, the math behind it.
  663. 23:31Step one is to define the dollar amount
  664. 23:33to risk, usually about 1 to 2% of your
  665. 23:35trading capital. Once you've done that,
  666. 23:37then you need to calculate your position
  667. 23:39size using this formula over here, which
  668. 23:42is the dollar amount that you want to
  669. 23:43risk divided by your entry minus your
  670. 23:45stop loss. And you've learned that
  671. 23:47usually when you have a wider stop loss,
  672. 23:49you would
  673. 23:50have a smaller position size. And if
  674. 23:52your stop loss is tighter,
  675. 23:54you would have a larger position size.
  676. 23:57And finally, we've also talked about the
  677. 23:59law of large numbers. Right? This is
  678. 24:01important because in the short run your
  679. 24:03trading results
  680. 24:04is random, right? And in the in the long
  681. 24:06run you're aligned towards your trading
  682. 24:07system expectancy. So don't abandon your
  683. 24:10system, you know, just because of a few
  684. 24:11losing trades because you are then, you
  685. 24:13know, kind of like giving up too early.
  686. 24:15Yeah? So
  687. 24:18this is a quick recap. And for those of
  688. 24:20you who are wondering, "Noraina, you
  689. 24:21know, how do I then, you know, get, you
  690. 24:23know, trading systems that work? How do
  691. 24:24I know that my trading system actually
  692. 24:26has an edge in the market?" Well, if you
  693. 24:28feel that way, then I've written a book
  694. 24:30over here called Trading Systems That
  695. 24:32Work. I'll put the link somewhere below
  696. 24:33this video so you can grab a copy or
  697. 24:35just go down to Trading Systems
  698. 24:37Book.com. And this book, you'll learn
  699. 24:40not one, not two, but three proven
  700. 24:41trading systems that work. They're all
  701. 24:43backed by data so you can actually
  702. 24:45verify it on your own. And
  703. 24:48here's the deal, right? You know,
  704. 24:50I'm going to, you know, make this
  705. 24:51risk-free for you. You can, you know,
  706. 24:53grab a copy of this book and read it and
  707. 24:56if you don't get value out of it, right?
  708. 24:57You know, just feel free to drop us an
  709. 24:59email, right?
  710. 25:00Within the first 180 days and we'll
  711. 25:02happily refund you in full and you can
  712. 25:03still, you know, keep the book, right?
  713. 25:05Just as our way of, you know, saying
  714. 25:06thank you, right? For being supportive
  715. 25:08of our work over the years. So, I'll put
  716. 25:09the link somewhere somewhere below this
  717. 25:11video so you can grab a copy and with
  718. 25:12that said, I wish you good luck, good
  719. 25:14trading. I'll be talking to you soon.

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