YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: The Next 9/11 Will Target Your Bank Account! | Professor Jiang

The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: The Next 9/11 Will Target Your Bank Account! | Professor Jiang — Transcript

by The Diary Of A CEO · 16,591 words · 2,558 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00I think there are a lot of people who do
0:01not like what I'm saying. I am one of
0:03the most polarizing figures in the world
0:05right now. But I'm trying to prepare
0:07everyone. And what I want to explain
0:09[music] to you today, Stephen, is why
0:11the world is collapsing. Because having
0:14studied patterns of history and global
0:15supply chains, I now recognize and have
0:17a framework to predict the future. And I
0:20brought to you three, four, five
0:21predictions structured around 9/11.
0:23>> So what are your predictions? I've been
0:25dying to know. My first prediction, if
0:27there is another 911 attack, it will be
0:29an attack on the US financial
0:32infrastructure. Imagine one day you open
0:34your iPhone and you're looking to buy a
0:37coffee and all the money your bank
0:39account has been wiped out and they
0:40don't know when or how long it will take
0:42them to retrieve it. I believe that's
0:44what [music] makes Americans most
0:45vulnerable and therefore the most easily
0:47traumatized.
0:48>> What's prediction number two?
0:49>> Is that Lion Messi will become president
0:51of Argentina.
0:52>> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. And
0:53also, do you think Trump is going to
0:55have a third term? [music] Let's take a
0:56friendly ban and say $100. Trump gets a
0:57third term. There'll be a siege to New
0:59York City. Prediction three. My third
1:00prediction is that are you sure? You
1:03don't think that the US would actually
1:04do that?
1:05>> Well, I understand a lot of this is
1:08going to be extremely pessimistic, but
1:10we are living in a time of not just war,
1:14but also the regression of civilization.
1:16We've basically [music] hit the height
1:18of technological advancement. The word
1:20collapse you use there is a strong word.
1:22>> Yes. I am positive that we are seeing
1:25the collapse of civilization. All the
1:27stuffing that we have might have seen on
1:29television, it is coming to us in our
1:31lives and the world is essentially
1:34running out of time and I will paint a
1:36clear and simple picture of what is
1:38about to come. What would have to be the
1:40case for none of these sort of
1:41catastrophic things to take place.
1:42>> Well, the only that gives me hope is
1:45before this episode starts, I have a
1:46small favor to ask you. Two months ago,
1:4861% of the people that watch this
1:49channel weren't subscribed. We're now
1:51down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if
1:54you've ever liked any of the videos
1:55we've made on this channel, if you like
1:56this channel, can you do me a small
1:58quick favor and hit the subscribe
1:59button? It helps this channel more than
2:01you know, and the bigger the channel
2:02gets, the more we can invest in the
2:04guests and the production. Thank you and
2:05enjoy this episode.
2:10Professor Chang,
2:12what is front of mind for you at the
2:14moment? Your energy is giving me some
2:17things on my mind. What is that?
2:20>> I think that we are living in
2:25a time when the world is collapsing.
2:30And so what I want to explain to you
2:34today, Stephen, is how we got to the
2:37world that we are in and why it is
2:40collapsing.
2:42So first thing I want to explain to you
2:45is the um petro dollar system which is
2:48the basis for the global economy. So
2:51let's go back to the year 1945 and this
2:54is the end of World War II and the
2:56United States is dominant. The United
2:59States will manufacture
3:03goods for Europe and for Japan which
3:06were destroyed in World War II. So what
3:09the United States said is we will lend
3:12you the US dollars in order to purchase
3:16the goods that we will export to you but
3:19you have to promise to pay us back in
3:21gold. And the United States became
3:24complacent. They were spending money
3:26they shouldn't have been spending.
3:28United States went from a credit nation
3:30to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971,
3:35Richard Nixon said that the US dollar
3:39would no longer be pegged to the gold.
3:43And so the question now was if the US
3:45dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then
3:48what is the value of the US dollar? So
3:52Richard Nixon had to create demand for
3:55the US dollar. And so three things
3:58happened after the something called the
4:00Nixon shock. 1977 in shock. Okay. So the
4:04first was a creation of a petro dollar.
4:06So Saudi Arabia and other countries in
4:09the Middle East agreed to sell their oil
4:13only in US dollars. So if you want to
4:16buy oil energy, you need US dollars.
4:20Late 70s, early 80s,
4:23China said the same thing. If you want
4:26our cheap manufactured goods, you have
4:29to pay in US dollars.
4:32Mid80s was something called a pla cord
4:35where Japan agreed to take all its
4:41savings and buy US treasuries.
4:45>> So it's essentially they're buying a a
4:48promise from the US. All this is based
4:53on promises, right? The US dollar is a
4:56contract. It's a promise. China promises
5:00to give you manufactured goods and Saudi
5:03Arabia promises to give you oil. This
5:07system, the petro dollar system create
5:09the world that we live in today. So, let
5:11me explain why. All right. So, this is a
5:18semiconductor.
5:19All right? And it's a basis of all
5:21technology of all computer. And there
5:24are three critical elements in a
5:27semiconductor. Silicon,
5:30they are gallium and they are
5:34germanmanium. Okay. There are many more
5:37elements but these are the three most
5:39critical and these three together allow
5:44uh semiconductors to achieve almost
5:46impossible
5:48technology. For example, pre precision
5:51missiles, satellite communication are
5:53all based on these three elements
5:56working together.
5:59Why we have these three elements in
6:01place is because of this global system.
6:04Because
6:06silicon is mainly manufactured in China
6:11about 60 70% of the world silicon comes
6:13from China. 70% of gallium comes from
6:17China. 90% of the world's germanmanium
6:19comes from China. Now for semiconductors
6:24to work the process is this. The United
6:27States mainly in California, Nvidia or
6:32Apple, they will design very advanced
6:36semiconductor chips to power the iPhone
6:39to power video games. Then United States
6:43will send this chip design over to
6:47Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacturer
6:51of these chips.
6:54The Netherlands and Japan will create
6:56machines to print out these
6:58semiconductors. So a company in the
7:00Netherlands called ASML,
7:04they manufacture lithography machines
7:06that are worth $400 million each. Then
7:09these lethog machines and the chip
7:11design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan,
7:13but also Malaysia as well in order to
7:17manufacture these chips and then these
7:20chips are then sent to China to be put
7:23into appliances.
7:25So when you see this semiconductor,
7:28you're not just seeing a piece of metal
7:31and plastic. You're really seeing the
7:34world converging together. So I want you
7:37to remember this formula and this will
7:39help us explain how the world works.
7:40This formula is very simple.
7:42Technological progress is correlated
7:46with
7:48specialization
7:49times globalization.
7:51This is the formula. Okay. So it's very
7:55simple. All technolog technological
7:57progress is premised on more countries
8:00being able to specialize and these
8:03countries being able to trade freely
8:05with each other. And what makes this all
8:07possible is global trade that is
8:11supported by two things. The first of
8:14course is the US dollar. The second
8:16thing that's most important is is the US
8:18military hegemony.
8:20>> Hegemony meaning
8:21>> meaning there there are no pair
8:23competitor. There is no one who can
8:25challenge the United States in control
8:28of the seas.
8:29>> So you're coming now to the point of why
8:31you think because the the claim at the
8:33top was that the world is collapsing.
8:35>> Exactly. I bring this all up because we
8:38need to appreciate what technological
8:40innovation is. If techn technological
8:42innovation is specialization times
8:45globalization
8:46then we are living in a time of not just
8:50war but also the regression of
8:54civilization.
8:55So in other words my argument to you
8:57today is we've basically hit the apex
9:02the height of technological advancement.
9:07We cannot go any further because in
9:12order for technology to progress, you
9:14need greater specialization and you need
9:16greater globalization. But what we're
9:19seeing right now is this war in Iran, it
9:23will cause a chain of events that will
9:25force all nations to
9:28become much more general. Okay? So you
9:30will see a decline in specialization and
9:33they'll become much more nationalistic.
9:34They will need to create self-sufficient
9:36supply chains. So you will see a decline
9:38in globalization and therefore
9:40technology the progress will have to
9:43decline.
9:43>> The word collapse you use though is a
9:45strong word.
9:46>> Yes.
9:48>> Is that the word you meant?
9:49>> That's exactly the word I meant. We are
9:51living not through World War II. We are
9:55not living through a shifting of the
9:57global order. We are we will live
10:00through over the next 20 years the
10:02collapse of civilization itself.
10:04>> The collapse of civilization itself.
10:07>> Yes.
10:09>> Are you sure?
10:10>> I am positive that we are seeing um the
10:13collapse of civilization.
10:15>> Give me some definition around the
10:16collapse of civilization because people
10:17could infer that as oh you know the the
10:19dollar is not going to be as strong or
10:21they could say okay we're not going to
10:22innovate as much or I don't know if your
10:23prices are going to go up. But the
10:24collapse of civilization.
10:26>> Yes. So, let's go back to World War II.
10:30Okay, in World War II, if you lived in
10:33Europe or Asia, it really seemed like
10:36the end of the world. Tens of millions
10:39of people died in that war. But at the
10:43same time, you had a superpower that was
10:47emergent, the United States of America.
10:48So at the end of World War II, America
10:50was so powerful that it was able at the
10:54end of World War II to create a new
10:56world order and basically finance and
11:00defend this new world order called Pax
11:03Americana. And we are seeing the last
11:06days of Pax Americana. And then you ask
11:09yourself, well then let China emerge or
11:14maybe Russia will emerge or maybe Israel
11:17will will emerge to replace Pax
11:19Americana.
11:20And unfortunately
11:23what we know is that systems in decline,
11:27empires in decline do not go willingly.
11:30Okay. So the historical analogy I would
11:32use is the Bronze Age collapse because
11:36the Bronze Age was very similar to this
11:40period in our history when the entire
11:43world was globalized because in order to
11:45make bronze you needed both copper and
11:47tin and these places were found in
11:49different places of the world and that
11:51allowed for global integration. But
11:54because of global in integration over
11:57time you that led to massive inequality,
12:01debt and polarization.
12:03And so when the system collapsed, the
12:05entire world collapsed. So I I would
12:08argue the closest historical analogy
12:10that we have
12:13um to today is a bronze age collapse.
12:16What was life like in the Bronze Age
12:17collapse or how was it different pre-B
12:20bronze age collapse versus post bronze
12:22age collapse? So during the branch
12:25collapse what happened was
12:30there was a perfect series of crises
12:33that caused systematic collapse. Okay.
12:35The first was
12:38change in weather patterns climate
12:40changed which led to famine primarily in
12:45Europe. Okay. We have famine and people
12:47are starving. What do people do? They
12:49migrate. Okay. They migrate to areas
12:54that have food and that this this place
12:57is primarily going to be Anatolia and
13:00Egypt.
13:01These migrants
13:04overwhelm the systems of Egypt and
13:08Anatolia
13:09and this would cause a cascading effect
13:11where the entire world lost order. These
13:17migrants were called the sea peoples and
13:19they were destroying traditional
13:21hierarchies and authorities.
13:24And once that happened then the very
13:27fundamental elements of civilization
13:29disappear. So if we apply this analogy
13:33to today then I'm going to paint for you
13:35a scenario
13:37uh of what might happen. All right. So
13:39we have this war in the Middle East that
13:42is only expanding. It's bringing in more
13:45and more countries. So, as you may know,
13:50um, since we last spoke, basically all
13:53of Iran's proxies have been brought into
13:56the war. This includes the Houthis,
13:59which occupies this part of Yemen.
14:01>> So, the Houthis are a group of military
14:04that are in favor of Iran.
14:06>> The Houthies are an ethnic group in
14:10Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is
14:13divided according to tribes. The thing
14:16about the Houthies is first of all they
14:18live in the mountains. So it's almost
14:20impossible to dislodge the Houthies.
14:23Saudi Arabia be a tried for 5 years. It
14:25didn't work. The other thing about the
14:26Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people.
14:31Now they're Shia Muslim and they're
14:33Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of
14:35Muslim in the world are Sunni. about 90%
14:38of the entire global Muslim population.
14:41The Shia are about 10%. And as a result,
14:44because they're the the minority, the
14:46Shia are much more fanatical than the
14:50Sunni. And this has always been
14:51historically true. They believe in
14:53martyrdom. So in other words, uh the the
14:56Houthies will fight to the death.
14:58They're not afraid of death. Okay. And
15:01the third thing about the Houthies that
15:02we need to appreciate is they control
15:07this critical
15:09choke point called the Bab El Mandad
15:13Strait. This is this is the Red Sea. So
15:16a lot of trade has to go through the Red
15:20Sea. Now what we know is Iran has
15:23already closed off the sh of hummus
15:28and the easiest and cheapest way for
15:31Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia
15:35and South South Asia is by the sea. So
15:41Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport
15:43its oil. Okay. So that's the first group
15:47that is now involved in this war.
15:49Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, okay,
15:53which is in Lebanon right here. [snorts]
15:57And they are now fighting Israel.
15:59Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they
16:02are also very fanatical. And then you
16:04also have Iraq, the Shia militias that
16:08are basically their own independent
16:10militaries. So all four are have been
16:14brought into the war. You have Iran, you
16:16have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah,
16:19you have the Shia militia in Iraq. Why
16:23is this important? Because they span the
16:26entire Middle East. And so we are now
16:30seeing expansion of the war and over
16:33time what might happen is more and more
16:35nations have to be brought into the war
16:37to protect their own interests. How is
16:40this different from, you know, I grew up
16:42with this Iraq war
16:43>> and there was lots of conflict in the
16:44Middle East. There was always fighting
16:45going on and it's it feels like it's
16:47been a function of my my childhood is
16:49that the Middle East are always fighting
16:50in some capacity somewhere and it you
16:53know eventually there's a piece in Iraq
16:57and the war kind of stops and ISIS is
16:59decapitated or whatever and it just kind
17:01of moves around a little bit.
17:02>> Yeah, great question. But what's
17:04happening today is very different from
17:0620 2003. 2003, United States went in to
17:10get decapitate Saddam Hussein and his
17:13government. And that was easy to do
17:16because you had a government that was
17:18not very popular amongst uh the people.
17:22So, America specializes in shock and awe
17:26military tactics.
17:28The problem today is you have four
17:32different groups. You have the IRGC in
17:35Iran. You have the Houthi in Yemen. You
17:40have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the
17:43Shia militia in Iraq. They are
17:47decentralized.
17:48They are fanatical and they share a
17:52similar esquetology. They share a
17:54similar religious framework.
17:57And as a result, what we know is
18:00the United States military is not very
18:03good at fighting guerilla insurgents.
18:07We know because of what happened in
18:08Afghanistan as well as Iran. These two
18:12are what is often referred to as TW as
18:15fervor wars where the United States
18:17spent trillions of dollars over over 20
18:19years to try to squash insurgents and
18:23they failed miserably. So
18:26because these four groups are
18:28coordinating but they're decentralized.
18:31This means that this war can only expand
18:35over time. Now Saudi Arabia is feels
18:39threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi
18:42Arabia has done is most recently it's
18:44signed something called the Mecca
18:46Accords.
18:48Turkey and Pakistan. Okay. So Turkey and
18:53Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come
18:55to each other's defense. And it seems to
18:58me of these three countries, Saudi
19:00Arabia will be the first to invoke this
19:04mutual defense pact against the
19:06Houthies. So you can see a situation
19:09where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia
19:11is brought into war to try to dislodge
19:14the Houthies. But we know that the
19:17Houthies in a mountain retreat are
19:20almost invincible.
19:22So this war can only expand. And the
19:25Houthies in response what they can do is
19:28destroy the energy infrastructure of
19:30Saudi Arabia. The Houthies have
19:32ballistic missiles. They have drones.
19:35And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of
19:39gasoline ready to be blown up or lit up
19:41by the Houthies at any time.
19:44>> You know, back in the early 2000s, there
19:45was the alqaeda, there was ISIS, there
19:48was, you know, there was still Hezbollah
19:50in Hamas. So, how is how is this
19:52different? because there was lots of
19:54military militant groups.
19:55>> Great question. Okay.
19:57Why this is different is there is active
20:01coordination amongst these groups. So
20:04al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working
20:06separately. But the there are three
20:09proxies, okay? You have the Houthis, you
20:11have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have
20:13the Shia militia, they all report back
20:16to the IRGC in Iran. And here's the
20:19kicker. This is really important. Both
20:22China
20:24and Russia are supporting Iran in this
20:28conflict.
20:30China is supporting Iran through the
20:32Belone initiative. Basically
20:34transporting goods to Iran through this
20:36corridor and Russia is supporting Iran
20:40through the Caspian Sea. As a result,
20:43Iran in theory could fight this war
20:46indefinitely. Okay, that's one thing
20:49that we have to appreciate. there's a
20:51clear alliance in place to make sure
20:55that Iran and its proxies can withstand
20:59this war. The other thing that's really
21:02important for us to appreciate is like
21:04the Middle East, it is the heart and
21:08center of the petro dollar system. It
21:10takes all these barrels of oil in the
21:15GCC countries and transports them to
21:20India, Pakistan,
21:24China,
21:27Japan.
21:28Okay.
21:30And what then happens is the the East
21:34Asia takes these barrels of oil energy.
21:38Um, could you put the the mirror
21:40brothers in Japan?
21:41>> What are these little figurines you're
21:42asking me to put in Japan?
21:43>> So, this represents Japan's contribution
21:46to the global economy. So, it takes
21:48energy from the Middle East and turns
21:50them into manufactured products,
21:52consumer electronic products for the
21:53world to consume. It makes these in US
21:56dollars and China, Japan and the GCC all
22:00invest their access savings in the
22:04United States which allows United States
22:07to focus on innovation to create places
22:09like New York City. New York City is
22:10also a very specialized area because it
22:13basically is a financial center of the
22:15world. Okay. So all this is a petro
22:20dollar system. As you can see, the
22:22system is dependent on free trade. But
22:26once the oil stops flowing, then what
22:31happens is China, Japan are no longer
22:34able to make the manufactured goods they
22:37need to export
22:39and United States loses all these
22:42recycled US dollars.
22:45So the three biggest buyers of US
22:49treasuries basically the three biggest
22:52financiers of the of the US economy
22:55basically the AI bubble are Japan the
22:59GCC and China. So we will see a
23:02cascading effect of theft where maybe in
23:05a few months time the system collapses.
23:08Do you know what professor? One [snorts]
23:10of the reasons why I think it's quite
23:12hard for and I'm going to be completely
23:13honest. People can take this as they
23:14take it, but it's just me being honest.
23:16One of the reasons why it's quite hard
23:17to [snorts]
23:19believe that, you know, the world is is
23:22going to collapse and that this is going
23:24to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I
23:27was I was actually reading about the
23:28Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned
23:29it. And what I I pulled up here says,
23:31"The late Bronze Age collapse was a
23:33rapid, violent, and widespread societal
23:35breakdown that occurred in the Eastern
23:36Mediterranean between approximately
23:391,200 and 1,150 B.CE. Before the
23:42collapse, the region was heavily
23:43globalized. Major superpowers like the
23:46Egyptians, etc., etc., were deeply inter
23:48interconnected through diplomacy, royal
23:51marriages, and complex international
23:53trade networks. But within a span of
23:54just 50 years, almost every significant
23:56city in the Eastern Mediterranean was
23:59destroyed and many were never rebuilt.
24:03And there's a map which I'll throw up on
24:05the screen which shows this breakdown. I
24:09here's my honesty. As a 34 year old, I
24:12have lived a very charmed life.
24:15>> Charmed life.
24:16>> Yeah.
24:17>> As it relates to his, you know, history
24:19and the things that happened in history.
24:21So when we hear these things that you
24:23know the society will break down,
24:24there'll be civil collapse, we don't
24:26really have a reference point as like
24:28Gen Z's and millennials really our
24:31parents and their parents they have you
24:32know reference points from World War II
24:34etc in the 1940s etc but we don't really
24:36have them. So it seems all to be quite
24:38you know that can't happen to us. Yeah,
24:40you're absolutely right. And I think a
24:42lot of the issue is
24:46the world has been constructed in a way
24:48to maintain the privileges of the
24:53western populations. An example I use is
24:57um you say
24:59that we've lived a charm life. Well, if
25:02you've been if you lived in Iraq,
25:06Afghanistan, these places, you do not
25:08live a charm life. Yeah,
25:09>> because United States came and attacked
25:11you for no particular reason and they
25:14destroyed the very infrastructure of
25:17your society. Even today, Iraq and
25:20Afghanistan are engulfed in political
25:23violence and war and political
25:25assassinations. And so, you've never
25:26known if you were a child in Iraq or
25:30Afghanistan and even in Africa, you've
25:34you never known peace, stability, and
25:36prosperity. So the inequality in the
25:39world is stark and we in the west have
25:44been extremely privileged to be
25:46sheltered from a lot of the chaos in the
25:49world. In fact, the US empire is
25:51designed to ensure the populations never
25:54have to suffer the tragedy and suffering
25:58of other people. And what I'm trying to
26:00say is this US empire is breaking down
26:05and there's nothing that we can do to
26:07stop it. So all the stuffing that that
26:09we might have seen on television, it is
26:12coming to us in our lives and we need to
26:16be aware of it.
26:17>> When you say it's coming to us in our
26:19lives, it's coming to us in our lives.
26:21the same political violence, the same
26:24chaos, the same political polarization
26:27that has infested the rest of the world.
26:32Do you think war is coming to our
26:35shores? Because we now live in a post
26:37new nuclear bomb era.
26:39>> Yes.
26:39>> And that seems to have created in a
26:41weird way a bit of peace, right,
26:43>> between superpowers.
26:44>> So, I'm going to go to the screen,
26:46>> okay? And I'm going to paint you a
26:49picture of our global supply chains and
26:54what it means for global supply chains
26:56to break down using a few maps. And
27:00these maps, I hope, will paint a clear
27:04and simple picture of what it what is
27:07about to come.
27:07>> Can I ask you a questions before we go
27:08to the screen? Sure. Have you always
27:10been pessimistic about the future?
27:13>> No.
27:13>> When did you become pessimistic about
27:15the future?
27:16I became very pessimistic about the
27:19future after Brexit and the election of
27:23Donald Trump
27:26because
27:28I was an immigrant
27:30who grew up in a very poor family. My
27:33father was a dishwasher and he was a
27:35dishwasher for 30 years before we
27:36retired. We're so poor we couldn't even
27:39afford a car. We never took any
27:41indications. But I worked hard. I got
27:44into Yale University, one of the best
27:47colleges in the world. And not only
27:48that, but I went there on a full
27:49scholarship. So from my perspective, the
27:53world was perfect. It was a meritocracy.
27:56It was a place that rewarded talent and
27:58hard work. So I believed
28:01that the world was governed by reason,
28:05by logic, by science, by truth, by good
28:09people.
28:11And when Brexit and the election of
28:14Donald Trump happened, I was
28:16traumatized.
28:18Brexit was the British people turning
28:21away from globalization. The election of
28:23Donald Trump from my perspective was the
28:28American rejection of meritocracy, of
28:32reason, of truth, of of order. And when
28:36that happened, it sort of told me
28:40what I believe about the world
28:43didn't really work. And when those
28:47things happened, that forced me to
28:51reflect deeply on
28:54why the world was was breaking down. And
28:56those events led me to today. Because
28:59what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to
29:02figure out patterns of history,
29:05principles of society
29:07that allow us to better understand
29:09ourselves. And that's why I drew you
29:12this formula because traditionally we
29:15understood innovation as maybe coming
29:17from universities.
29:19And having studied history, having
29:21studied global supply chains, I now
29:23recognize that no technology just comes
29:25from specialization and globalization.
29:28And this not only is an analysis of the
29:31current world, but it also gives us a
29:34framework to predict the future, right?
29:37So if in a time of war,
29:40commercialization, globalization break
29:42down, then in theory, technology should
29:45break down as well. Okay? And that's
29:47what what what I'm trying to I'm trying
29:48to figure out how and why we are we
29:51where we are today.
29:52>> So, you wanted to draw something on the
29:54whiteboard.
29:54>> Okay. Right.
30:00>> Whoa. What's that on your face?
30:02>> This is my Bon Charge face mask. I've
30:04been wearing this for some time now.
30:05They're a sponsor of the podcast. I put
30:06this on for 15 20 minutes a day. I can
30:08sit here in the chair and wear it.
30:10Boosts my collagen production. Helps
30:12with fine lines, blemishes, my
30:13complexion gets better, and then more
30:15people listen to the podcast cuz I I
30:16look better. professionalgrade equipment
30:18in such a small box. It's non-invasive.
30:21And having sat here with so many of the
30:23world's leading health professionals,
30:24there's various things that I repeatedly
30:26hear work and some things I'm a bit
30:28skeptical about. This is one of the
30:29things that almost all of my guests on
30:31this show have confirmed works. It is
30:33really, really, really effective. And
30:35they offer fast, free shipping worldwide
30:37with easy returns and exchanges. And
30:39you'll also get a one-year warranty on
30:40all of their products. and they're HSA
30:42and FSA eligible, giving you taxfree
30:45savings up to 40%. And you can get 20%
30:48off when you order through my link at
30:50bondcharge.com/doac.
30:53That's bondcharge.com/doac.
30:57The deal applies sitewide.
30:59Much of the reason most people haven't
31:01posted content or built their personal
31:02brand is because it's hard and it's
31:05timeconuming and we're all very very
31:06busy. And if you've never posted
31:08something before, there's so many
31:11factors in your psychology that stop you
31:13wanting to post. What people will think
31:15of you. Am I doing this right? Is the
31:16thing I'm saying absolutely stupid? All
31:19of these result in paralysis, which
31:21means you don't post and your feed goes
31:23bare. I'm an investor in a company
31:25called Stanto, which you've probably
31:27heard me talk about. And what they've
31:28been building is this new tool called
31:30Stanley that uses AI, looks at your
31:32feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks
31:34at your history, looks at your best
31:35performing posts, and tells you what you
31:37should post, makes those posts for you.
31:39You can also just use it for
31:41inspiration. And sometimes what we need
31:43when we're thinking about doing a post
31:44for our social media channels is
31:46inspiration. Building an audience has
31:48fundamentally changed my life, and I
31:50think it could change yours, too. So,
31:51I'm inviting you to give this new tool a
31:54shot and let me know what you think. All
31:56you have to do is search coach.stand
31:57stand.store now to get started.
32:00>> So this is a summary of the global
32:03supply chain network and we can see how
32:06it involves the entire world. You are
32:09not able to build semiconductors unless
32:12you have a globalized economy. So
32:15there's been a lot of talk about China
32:18controlling the elements, right? So,
32:21China manufactures about uh 70% of the
32:24world's silicon and rare earths, China
32:28controls about 70% of rare earths. What
32:30people don't appreciate is it works both
32:33ways. Okay? So, China does export a lot
32:37of silicon and rare earths, but it also
32:40needs to import a lot of helium in order
32:43to sustain its semiconductor
32:45manufacturing process. The reason why is
32:48helium cools these semiconductors in a
32:52way um to to allow it for to be
32:54manufactured. Okay. So, helium is a
32:56cooling agent. Another thing that people
32:58don't appreciate is people think that
33:00China has a monopoly on rare earths, but
33:03America in a place called Spruce Pine,
33:07Spruce Pine,
33:08North Carolina.
33:11This area has monopoly on high quality
33:15quartz. It controls about 90% of the
33:18world's high quality quarts which you
33:21need in the silicon manufacturing
33:23process as well. Okay. So if these
33:27nations start to stop trading with each
33:29each other technology would cease to
33:31progress. Now something to keep in mind
33:35is it's not just semiconductors that are
33:37dependent on the global supply chain.
33:39Food is also very dependent on the glo
33:42global supply chain. So what we're
33:44seeing is a stark contrast between the
33:47north and the south. So the north, okay,
33:52produces
33:54most of the world's fertilizer
33:58and the south, okay, primarily Africa,
34:01the Middle East and South America, they
34:04import a lot of the fertilizer. This map
34:07shows it much more clearly. Okay, so
34:09ammonia is a very important component of
34:11fertilizer. And as you can see, most of
34:13the ammonium production plants are
34:15actually in the north of the world.
34:16Canada, United States, Europe, China,
34:20Russia. [snorts] So the south, the
34:24global south is dependent on the north
34:26for food. In a time of war, when global
34:30supply chains break down, the north
34:32might lose access to fancy wireless
34:36smartphones. The south will face famine.
34:38Okay? Why is this important?
34:41because the world is rife with conflict.
34:45The main issue that we're we will face
34:48next 20 years is not oil. It's actually
34:50water. All right. So, this map that
34:54we're seeing right now is actually
34:56telling us where the next major
34:59geopolitical flash points are. So
35:02basically if you see red on the map it
35:08means this place has water scarcity
35:11issues and the red issues tell us
35:14exactly where wars will erupt. Okay. So,
35:19even the United States, if you look at
35:21the western part of the United States,
35:22they do have water scarcity issues. And
35:25actually, if you go to uh the western
35:27United States, Colorado, California,
35:29Arizona, these places, they're fighting
35:31over the Colorado River because the
35:35Colorado River is what supplies most of
35:37their water. You go to the Middle East
35:40and you know that the Middle East is
35:44almost like a dynamite ready to explode.
35:47And what this war will do is aggravate
35:49all the tensions in the Middle East.
35:52India itself is facing water shortages
35:56which brings it into conflict with
35:58China. Okay. So this one map if you can
36:00just see it, it basically tells you um
36:04where the next geopolitical flash points
36:06will be. It means a place that is most
36:08likely to go to war or have conflict or
36:11political violence with the next 20
36:13years. Okay. But also here is north uh
36:18east Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is
36:22here. Okay. So that's another major
36:24flash point. So this is what over the
36:27next 20 years where war is most likely
36:30to break out. Okay. But what's important
36:32to appreciate is once war breaks out
36:35there are third order effects
36:38um causing conflict to spread around the
36:41world. Okay. This is a really important
36:45map for us to appreciate as well. This
36:47map tells us fertility rates around the
36:50world. As you can see, Africa has the
36:54world's highest fertility rate followed
36:57by the Middle East. Okay.
37:00>> So, they're having the most children per
37:02couples.
37:02>> That's right. Why is this a problem?
37:04Because if you go back to the previous
37:05map, this area is also where there is
37:08the most geopolitical tension. And so if
37:11there are more and more children, young
37:13people being born here, they have no
37:15choice but to migrate. And where will
37:17they migrate? Probably to Europe. And
37:20you're like, well, okay, well then what
37:25Europe should do is turtle up. Europe
37:29should build walls and prevent these
37:32migrants from reaching Europe. But
37:34Europe has its own problem, which is the
37:38aging crisis. Okay. So, look at what's
37:41happening where the fastest aging
37:43populations are in fact in the most
37:47developed nations including Japan,
37:50Europe, and North America. So, if you
37:55have an aging population, you need to
37:57provide cheap health care, nursing. What
38:01What does that mean? It means you have
38:02to let in more immigrants in order to
38:04surface
38:05the aging population.
38:08And what will happen then is domestic
38:11conflict where you have more migration
38:14into western societies which brings them
38:17into conflict with the native
38:18populations and therefore it is possible
38:21you have civil war as well as political
38:24violence
38:26and even the possibility of revolution.
38:31Okay. So these maps collectively paint a
38:36very grim picture of the world that
38:40we're we're living in.
38:41>> On this page here about immigration
38:44causing civil war political violence,
38:46revolution, won't it just be the case as
38:49we're seeing that these western
38:51societies will increas
38:53right-wing political parties, which is
38:56kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing,
38:57you know, parties in the UK like reform
38:59surge. I think there was news yesterday
39:01in Germany of the the political party
39:03there. We're seeing I mean we're seeing
39:04the same in the United States as well.
39:06>> That that's a fantastic point. That's
39:08that's exactly what we're seeing. We're
39:09seeing the AFD surge in Germany. You
39:12know, MAGA being very dominant in the
39:15United States. We're seeing Vox in
39:17Spain. So, in theory, what's going to
39:20happen is these countries become much
39:22more right-wing and then they block out
39:25immigration because that that is their
39:27main policy platform. And that should
39:29stop the civil war.
39:31>> The problem is what do you do about your
39:34aging population?
39:35>> Robots.
39:36>> Exactly. Right. That's what you would
39:38think. But what we're seeing is a
39:40breakdown in global supply chains.
39:41Robots depend on copper,
39:46right? Which you get from Chile, Peru,
39:51China, Australia. These are pretty far
39:53away places from Europe and United
39:56States, right? You also need lithium
39:59which you get from the lithium triangle
40:01again pretty far away. You also need
40:05silicon which is u mainly manufactured
40:09in China. You need rare earths which
40:11again is really manufactured in China.
40:13You have this you have this huge issue
40:14where in theory you could use robots but
40:17in the but when global supply chain
40:19breaks down you have to figure out the
40:21cheapest way to resolve the labor issue
40:23and the cheapest solution is
40:26immigration. Right? People I had to say
40:28this, but people are much cheaper and
40:31much more expendable than robots.
40:36So,
40:38I know this is a bit scary. I know this
40:43is really depressing, okay? But
40:47what if the United States were able to
40:50win this war in Iran and conduct regime
40:55change? Then our problems are solved.
40:59Right now, Iran is under the control of
41:04the United States and we're back to
41:08globalization where oil is able to flow
41:11to South uh Asia to East Asia and then
41:17they manufacture goods and then recycle
41:20their profits into the economy. And with
41:24all this money, AI is able to innovate
41:27to a point where we achieve AGI and then
41:30we solve all the world's problems. Okay.
41:33So what happens next with this whole
41:36Iran situation?
41:38>> So unfortunately
41:40it has now des momentum. All right. So
41:44let me explain what is most likely to
41:46happen. Okay. So you have Iran
41:52and you are now controlling the Shamus,
41:53right? You have the Houthis and they
41:56control the Bao and Mandad Strait. You
42:00have Hespala which can threaten the Suez
42:02Canal. You have the Shia militias
42:06that can also threaten the
42:08Mediterranean. Right? From a game theory
42:11perspective,
42:13what Iran should do next is take the
42:17initiative and disrupt all global trade.
42:21And the reason why is the US empire is
42:25based on the petro dollar. It's based on
42:27global trade. When you disrupt global
42:30trade at the same time, there's no way
42:33for the United States to respond.
42:35>> How could they disrupt global trade?
42:37what they can do is start to attack
42:40randomly. Okay. So what who can do is
42:45attack Saudi Arabia?
42:47Um Iraq can um attack Israel. Iran can
42:53attack the moves. Uh Hezbollah can
42:56attack the Sewish canal. Okay? And why
42:58you do that is you're creating
43:00uncertainty and chaos in the global
43:03trade system. Why is that important?
43:06Because the global trade system is built
43:08on confidence
43:11and that's what drives insurance. Okay?
43:13So if you're an insurance company,
43:14you're like, "Oh my god, these countries
43:16are sorry, these [snorts] actors are
43:18completely out of control. The United
43:19States has lost control over the
43:21situation." You can no longer ensure
43:24global shipping. If you can't ensure
43:27global shipping, global shipping ceases
43:29to work. All right? So this is a madman
43:33theory and this is Iran's best play
43:36moving forward. And the reason why is
43:38the United States does not have the
43:41military capacity to respond to a
43:45coordinated random strike across the
43:48Middle East.
43:48>> So is this your prediction? Is this what
43:50happens next?
43:51>> I don't want to make this prediction
43:53just because there are lots of factors I
43:55do not know. Okay. So, so first of all,
43:58I don't know politically what the
44:01situation is in Iran. Certainly, the
44:03IRGC would want to do this, but there
44:06are political factions within Iran who
44:09would think this is too provocative, and
44:11it's possible the entire world would
44:13unite against Iran if Iran were to do
44:16this.
44:17>> So, what is your prediction in terms of
44:19Iran and what happens next?
44:20>> My prediction is this will only
44:23escalate. How it will escalate, I don't
44:26know. Okay. But the trump card to use a
44:30pun for Iran is to start to disrupt
44:35global trade. But United States has a
44:38response and this response is to attack
44:44Iran's critical civil infrastructure
44:47which includes dissalination plants and
44:50power plants. And this would be worse
44:53than using a nuclear weapon on Iran
44:55because without power plants, the people
44:58in Tran, a city of about 10 million
45:00people, they face starvation because a
45:02lot of this food is refrigerated.
45:05This is how the war becomes almost
45:09civilization destroying. If Iran were to
45:12completely disrupt global trade and if
45:14the United States were to destroy the
45:16power plants of Iran,
45:18>> obviously that would be horrific and uh
45:20sort of inconceivably horrifying for the
45:22people that live in Iran, the innocent
45:23people that are caught in the middle of
45:24this. You don't think that the US will
45:26actually do that though, right?
45:28>> I think the United States will be forced
45:30to do it.
45:30>> You think they'll be forced to do it?
45:31>> Yes. According to game theory, they will
45:33be forced to behave like this because
45:36we need to appreciate
45:39this formula where the more power you
45:43have, the less imagination, empathy you
45:46have. You and so the idea is you don't
45:50think killing millions of Iranians
45:53is a too heavy a price. It's all worth
45:57it if you can maintain the empire. The
46:00hubris
46:02leads you to believe that the gods favor
46:04you and you ultimately win and triumph
46:07in this great struggle.
46:10>> Don't you create a huge migration crisis
46:12where people start fleeing from Iran up
46:15into Europe because they are starving.
46:19>> Exactly. Right. Not just Iran, but
46:22Africa as well because they've lost
46:23access to cheap energy and fertilizer.
46:25So you have all this migration into
46:29Europe which would overwhelm European
46:33the European social fabric which would
46:35overwhelm the European state. But
46:39unfortunately, this has been happening
46:42at a much slower pace ever since 2014
46:45when for whatever reason the United
46:47States chose to destroy
46:51Libya and cause civil war in Syria which
46:54caused millions to migrate into Europe.
46:57And as you remember the Europeans in the
47:00generosity accepted all these migrants
47:02which is leading which has led to
47:06tremendous social friction and political
47:07tension in Europe today.
47:08>> So your prediction here if we conclude
47:10then is that the US won't win this quote
47:12unquote war in the Middle East because
47:14they can't defeat Iran and its proxies.
47:17But also your conclusion is that this is
47:19going to continue to escalate in the
47:21Middle East.
47:21>> Yes. And already what we're seeing are
47:24other actors being drawn into the war.
47:27So the so the most recent news is South
47:29Korea has authorized a naval contingent
47:32to go and try to secure the home moves.
47:34>> What would you do if you were Donald
47:36Trump?
47:39[laughter]
47:39>> I mean [gasps] um what would I do if I
47:42were Donald Trump? I would push all in.
47:45I would start attacking power plants in
47:48uh Iran because
47:51if I take any half measures,
47:54I would just look weak and I'm only
47:56going to create more problems. I would
47:58only incentivize
48:00Iran and its allies to be more
48:03provocative, to be more aggressive. So
48:06if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this
48:08situation, I would just push all in.
48:10>> You would end up killing millions of
48:12Iranians theoretically.
48:14Well, I start this war, right? Then I
48:18have to win this war because I can't
48:20lose this war. I refuse to lose this
48:22war. I mean, again, I I understand the
48:25concerns. Okay? But if you want to
48:27understand how these lead leaders think,
48:29this formula gives you
48:32the best window into into the
48:35psychology, which is because of so much
48:37power, they lose the capacity to imagine
48:40different possibilities and have empathy
48:42for the suffering of the people in the
48:44world.
48:45>> Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't
48:47they just couldn't Donald Trump just say
48:48do a big press conference where he says,
48:50"We won this war in Iran. We've
48:51destroyed their military, their naval
48:52bases. It's done. and Iran will no
48:55longer have a nuclear weapons.
48:57>> The entire petro dollar system is
49:00premised on two things. The US dollar as
49:03the world reserve currency and the aura
49:08of inevitability and invincibility of
49:10the US military.
49:11>> If they look like they are beatable,
49:14then the the US as its image is
49:17sufficiently tarnished.
49:19>> Right.
49:21What are your predictions? I've been
49:22dying to know. So I brought to you three
49:25predictions and because we are so close
49:28to the anniversary of 911 in New York
49:31City um I um structured these
49:35predictions around the anniversary and
49:37so these will be three fun but
49:40horrifying predictions. Okay. All right.
49:42So my prediction number one is there
49:45will be a siege of New York City. All
49:47right. So let me explain my logic. I was
49:50here last time and I said that Donald
49:53Trump will get a third term and he's
49:56been joking about it. He's been talking
49:58a lot about it. He's been socialing
50:02about it. And so let's imagine what
50:07happens if Trump gets a third term.
50:10Well, you would have a lot of pissed-off
50:12people, especially in the major cities
50:15of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston,
50:18Chicago, and New York City. We should
50:21probably just pause there because there
50:22is a a constitutional ban on serving
50:26three terms. The primary barrier being
50:28the 22nd amendment, which was ratified
50:31in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, um,
50:34who won four elections. It establishes a
50:36strict term limit for the presidency and
50:38the text in the 22nd amendment
50:40explicitly says no person shall be
50:42elected to the office of the president
50:43more than twice.
50:46So how could that happen? Well,
50:50let's just say there is a national
50:52emergency
50:54and the president is forced to suspend
50:57the constitution.
50:59Then he could theoretically
51:02have his third term. It's also possible
51:05that in 2028 he decides to run as the
51:08vice president and have his son Don Jr.
51:13run at the top of the ticket and then
51:15once the election is over then Don Jr.
51:19would resign and then Donald Trump would
51:22become the president and there's nothing
51:24in the constitution that prevents him
51:26from doing that. So there are two
51:28possibilities. There isn't anything in
51:30the constitution that allows the US
51:32president to suspend the constitution in
51:34a in a time of a national emergency.
51:37>> It's president. Um so for example during
51:39the American civil war Iran Lincoln was
51:42able to suspend habius corpus
51:45which is a constitutional right in the
51:47US constitution.
51:49And during World War II Franklin Delano
51:53Roosevelt also did many unconscious
51:55things. for example, interning the
51:57Japanese population uh in caps. [snorts]
52:00There's nothing the Supreme Court could
52:01do against uh this uh because a lot of
52:06US politics is convention. It's agreed
52:09upon norms. But if a US president is
52:13like, well, screw these conventions.
52:17There's nothing anyone else can do about
52:18it. All right. So let's imagine, okay,
52:22just for for the sake of this argument,
52:24Trump gets a third term. What will
52:26happen is these cities that are
52:29democratic
52:30will be an open revolt, meaning they
52:32will refuse to pay taxes to the federal
52:34government, but they will also not
52:36welcome ICE federal agents into their
52:38cities,
52:40which creates conflict between local law
52:43enforcement and federal law enforcement.
52:46And historically, if that were to happen
52:48then the president, US president usually
52:51thinks that he has responsibility to
52:53quash this insurrection, right? And so
52:57this would over time lead to the siege
53:00of New York City where may maybe federal
53:04forces along with possibly militias from
53:07other states, possibly red states that
53:10favor Trump. They would try to besiege
53:12New York City by cutting off the food
53:15supply and water supply to New York
53:16City. And this will be a conflict that
53:19could go on for years and years.
53:21>> And what year would that take place?
53:232028.
53:25It could happen right after um Trump
53:28secures his third term.
53:29>> Do you think Trump is going to have a
53:30third term?
53:32>> Um do you want to bet?
53:33>> Yeah,
53:34>> I think he'll get a third term.
53:36>> How much you want to bet?
53:36>> Let's take a friend bet and say $100.
53:39>> Do you know said this before, but I
53:41actually did have a bet with two random
53:43guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook,
53:45but I had to bet with two random guys on
53:47Facebook a couple of years ago. They
53:48told me that after Donald Trump had lost
53:51the election to Joe Biden, they told me
53:53that he was going to stay in power. And
53:55so I said, "There's no way he stays in
53:56power."
53:57>> And they said, "No, he will." So they
53:58and then they offered me a bet. They
54:00said, "£1,000 each. We bet you he's
54:02going to stay in power." They were like
54:03queuing on people. And I said, "Fine."
54:05And they actually did pay me when he he
54:07came out of power. They they transferred
54:08me $1,000 each. I gave it to charity.
54:10But so I'm more than happy to make
54:11another bet if you want to make a bet.
54:12>> Yeah, let's do it. $100. $100.
54:14>> $100. And you're betting that Trump gets
54:16a third term?
54:17>> Yes. I think he'll be in power after
54:192028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be
54:22in power after 2028.
54:23>> When's the election?
54:24>> Well, the election should be November
54:264th, 2028.
54:28But I I didn't say he would win the
54:29election. I I just said he he would get
54:30a third term.
54:31>> So, you're saying that he will refuse to
54:34leave office or find another way to
54:37remain president beyond the date of the
54:40inauguration?
54:41>> Yes. I'm saying that uh on January 21,
54:442029, Trump will still be in the White
54:46House. Okay, I'll take that bet.
54:48>> Okay,
54:48>> if everyone's clear. And please do uh
54:50remind me to cash in, lads.
54:52>> $100.
54:53>> Okay, [laughter] $100 may not be worth
54:55anything at that time, but that's $100.
54:57Okay.
54:58>> Okay.
54:58>> All right. So, again, we are just
55:01assuming
55:02for the sake of argument that Trump is
55:04in office in his third term. There will
55:06be political violence uh across United
55:09States, primarily in New York City. And
55:12if the federal authority is being
55:15challenged by a city or lo local state
55:18authority, then the president will take
55:20this very seriously and send in forces
55:22to quash this insurrection. Maybe other
55:26cities will be much more compliant. But
55:29New York City has a very charismatic
55:31mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers.
55:35You don't want to mess with New Yorkers.
55:36When they get angry, they get really,
55:38really angry. So, so this I think uh is
55:43uh very likely if Trump gets a third
55:44term, there'd be a siege in New York
55:46City.
55:46>> He would almost [snorts] be 83 years
55:48old.
55:49>> I mean, we say that, but like the amount
55:52of energy he has, right? The fact of the
55:54matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers
55:58every day. He gives a press conference
56:01almost every day. He's always on social
56:03media tweeting out something stupid. For
56:05example, he's tweeted out that, you
56:07know, all of North America is now the
56:09USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that
56:11yet. And he's talking about taking over
56:15Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I
56:18don't know where he gets his his energy,
56:20but he seems really energetic.
56:22I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed
56:24Obama.
56:25>> Michelle Obama.
56:26>> Okay. But like if you just look at the
56:27picture of Obama in 2008, he was a
56:31really handsome,
56:33really young, very vibrant man in 2008.
56:38You fast forward eight years and he came
56:40out just decrepit. Okay, he he was he
56:44had aged like at least 20 years in his
56:46office. [snorts] Donald Trump, for
56:49whatever reason,
56:51has not aged that much.
56:54hair dye and fake tan.
56:57>> He So, there's something really weird
57:00about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US
57:04journalists in Washington DC have his
57:06direct personal cell phone number and
57:09they can call him and they will talk for
57:11an hour.
57:13Like the guy is the president of the
57:15United States. And if you are just an
57:19average Washington journalist, you can
57:22call him and talk to him for for an hour
57:24a day. There are journalists who go to
57:26the White House to interview him and
57:28says like we try to get we try to like
57:30leave like an hour ago, but he he made
57:32us stay and talk to him some more. He
57:34would not let us leave. So I don't know
57:36where he gets his energy from, but he's
57:38extreme extremely energetic and he loves
57:42that attention.
57:44>> Okay. What's prediction number two?
57:46>> So again, we are approaching the
57:49anniversary of 911 and there are a lot
57:52of people who fear there will be another
57:56911 attack on the United States just
57:59because you have a lot of actors that
58:01are very angry at the United States and
58:05who may want to seek vengeance against
58:08the American people. In that case, if
58:10there is another 911 attack on the
58:13United States, I believe it will be an
58:16attack on the US financial
58:19infrastructure.
58:20Okay. So, let me explain my reasoning.
58:22What was 911? 911 was an act committed
58:26by terrorists in order to traumatize the
58:29population into self-destructive
58:31violence.
58:33Is that a fair statement?
58:34>> I don't really know. Is that was that
58:36the
58:36>> So, let's parse the statement. 911 was
58:41an attempt to traumatize the American
58:44population into selfdestructive
58:47violence. What I mean by that is you're
58:49taking the symbols of American power,
58:51which are like these airplanes
58:53>> as well as the Twin Towers. These are
58:55symbols of American power
58:56>> and the Pentagon.
58:58>> And the Pentagon and the White House and
59:01you're destroying them.
59:03And for the longest time, American
59:06people believed that these are symbols
59:09of American invisibility, our planes,
59:12our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And
59:15to see them destroyed like that would
59:17traumatize the population. In fact, it
59:19did traumatize many, many people.
59:23And the idea is you traumatize them into
59:26a self-destructive violence, which means
59:28like they want vengeance. And so what
59:30did they do? They went to the Middle
59:32East, fought against the Taliban and
59:34Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq,
59:37then this war spread to Syria, Libya,
59:40and we can say that these 20 years of
59:43these forever wars in the Middle East
59:45have been very destructive for the
59:46United States. It's caused a huge fiscal
59:49deficit. It's caused uh the American
59:52military to lose a lot of prestige. It's
59:54caused a lot of corruption in Washington
59:56DC. It's been very bad for the United
59:58States. All right. So, if you're at the
1:00:01terrorist and you look at 911, you're
1:00:02like, "Okay, well, I want to do the same
1:00:04thing, which is like I want to
1:00:06traumatize people into self-destructive
1:00:08violence. How can I do so? Well, I need
1:00:11to traumatize them, right? Me flying
1:00:15planes into the new the the new twin
1:00:18towers doesn't do that because people
1:00:19are now used to they've they've been
1:00:21normalized into this sort of violence.
1:00:25So how can I induce trauma into people?
1:00:30Well, there are different possibilities
1:00:32you can use, right? So let's do a
1:00:34thought experiment. What would happen if
1:00:38one day you open your iPhone and you're
1:00:42looking to
1:00:44buy a coffee?
1:00:46Well, you scan your iPhone and it
1:00:50doesn't read and you're like, well,
1:00:52there might be a problem with the bank.
1:00:53You call the bank. you can't get food to
1:00:54the bag. And like after hours and hours
1:00:57of frantic anxiety, you finally
1:00:59recognize that there's an attack on
1:01:03critical US financial data servers. And
1:01:06so all the money in your bank account
1:01:09has been wiped out and they don't know
1:01:11when or how long it will take them to
1:01:13retrieve it. Would you feel
1:01:17>> concern?
1:01:18I would say you would feel more than
1:01:20concern. I would say you would feel a
1:01:21lot of anger and anxiety and
1:01:24frustration.
1:01:24>> That must be hard to do. Surely taking
1:01:27out the financial infrastructure for
1:01:28everybody for a long enough period of
1:01:31time where they start to feel real world
1:01:33consequences.
1:01:33>> Would you say 911 was hard to do?
1:01:36>> Yeah,
1:01:37>> I would say so as well. I can possibly
1:01:39imagine them doing this. So there is
1:01:42certain creativity to these people and I
1:01:47would not rule that out. But I'm just
1:01:49saying if another 911 happens, it is
1:01:51possible what we'll see is the
1:01:55destruction of the US financial
1:01:58infrastructure, which would drive
1:02:00millions of people into a mad frenzy.
1:02:02You've worked your entire life to save
1:02:05up $2 million. That $2 million is your
1:02:07retirement.
1:02:10It used to be that working for yourself
1:02:12was a massive, massive risk. But that
1:02:14world has completely changed. If you've
1:02:16got a business idea that you can't stop
1:02:18thinking about, I think you owe it to
1:02:20yourself to at least try and make it
1:02:22happen. And that is where our show
1:02:25sponsor Shopify comes in. Their smart
1:02:27platform includes everything you need to
1:02:29start selling and get that idea off the
1:02:31ground. They have this drag and drop
1:02:32editor. They have this AI sidekick and
1:02:34helps you. They have analytics and you
1:02:36don't need to be an expert to get going.
1:02:38Shopify's best-in-class checkout makes
1:02:40sure that you're getting paid from day
1:02:42one. It helps more of your customers
1:02:44finish their purchase because their
1:02:45checkout is so efficient and it saves
1:02:48their info for next time. Personalized
1:02:50checkouts like that equal more
1:02:52conversion, equal a faster growing
1:02:54business. Nothing kills that early
1:02:56enthusiasm you have for a new idea than
1:02:58that first initial step to get going
1:03:00being difficult, complicated, or
1:03:02expensive. And you need to save as much
1:03:04time and money so that you can focus all
1:03:06of it on growing your actual business.
1:03:08And that's what Shopify gives you. Head
1:03:10over to shopify.com/bartlet
1:03:14and you can start your free trial right
1:03:16now. You said to me at the top of the
1:03:18conversation you're having difficulty
1:03:19getting back into the United States
1:03:21recently.
1:03:22>> Yes. What do you mean by that?
1:03:24>> So I think there are a lot of people who
1:03:27do not like what I'm saying. I would say
1:03:29I am one of the most polarizing figures
1:03:32in the world right now. So, uh, the
1:03:35story is that the Iran war happened in
1:03:39March and it made me famous and I was
1:03:44really afraid that this fame would annoy
1:03:48and frustrate a lot of Americans and so
1:03:51I uh decided that I should not actually
1:03:54go to United States at this point
1:03:55because it's most likely that I come
1:03:57here and I could be held in detention by
1:04:00customs. I could be deported. And so
1:04:03that time period was uh extremely um
1:04:08scary for me. And I I refused all offers
1:04:12to come to United States. There were
1:04:13quite a few people who wanted me to fly
1:04:14United States to be interviewed. So then
1:04:17what happened is over the summer the war
1:04:19started to die down. thought, okay, let
1:04:21me fly to Canada where my family is. And
1:04:24I'm in Toronto and I'm going to try to
1:04:28enter United States by ear from Toronto.
1:04:31So on August 5th, I went to to the
1:04:34Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like
1:04:367:00 in the morning because I had an
1:04:37early flight to Los Angeles. [snorts] I
1:04:40told them that I was going to go on the
1:04:41Theo Von show for and I'll be in the
1:04:43United States for 2 weeks. Uh which was
1:04:46all true. So, so when when I'm at
1:04:49customs, the immigration officer asked
1:04:52me a lot of questions, but I I handle
1:04:53all these questions pretty smoothly.
1:04:55Then he asked me, "Do you have a travel
1:04:57letter for your son?" Because my son
1:04:59Chris, who's 8 years old, he's traveling
1:05:01with me. And I'm like, "What is a travel
1:05:03letter?" And again, this this like 7:00
1:05:05in the morning, so my brain's not
1:05:06working. He's like, "Call your wife."
1:05:09Like, "Okay." So, I try to call my wife.
1:05:11My wife is in the shower. And so then
1:05:14the immigration officer says, "Okay, you
1:05:16have you have to go into secondary to be
1:05:18interrogated to make sure that your son
1:05:20Chris is traveling with you willingly."
1:05:23So we go to we go to into secondary and
1:05:25it's like 7:00 in the morning and my
1:05:26flight's at 8:30 and we're waiting for
1:05:28like an hour and I'm freaking out
1:05:31because it seems like we're we'll miss
1:05:33our flight. And during this hour I'm
1:05:35texting my wife and she's given me the
1:05:38birth certificate. She's given me all
1:05:40the materials I need to prove that this
1:05:41son that Chris is is my son. And then um
1:05:45at the very last minute we get called
1:05:46and a minute a minute I'm able to
1:05:48resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm
1:05:50going to go on the field von show and uh
1:05:53I'll be there for two weeks.
1:05:56So, I'm in the United States and I get
1:05:58contact from other podcasts to do
1:06:01interviews and I travel around the
1:06:03United States and I I forget about the
1:06:06two week promise to the um immigration
1:06:09authorities because uh I'm not sure if
1:06:11you know the law but I'm Canadian I'm
1:06:13I'm a Canadian citizen and therefore I
1:06:15don't need a visa to come United States.
1:06:17You know, if if you say I'm coming for
1:06:18two weeks but you stay a month, it's
1:06:20usually not an issue. I go back to
1:06:23Toronto and I come back to do this
1:06:24podcast. And so yesterday
1:06:28I am put in yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I
1:06:31have my travel letter. I have my son's
1:06:34birth birth certificate and I go to
1:06:36immigration officer and they still put
1:06:37me in uh secondary. But basically, I
1:06:40think what happened was
1:06:42I said certain things during my podcast
1:06:45interviews that piss off some really
1:06:48powerful people in the United States. A
1:06:52lot of things that I said were related
1:06:54to something called the clean brick
1:06:55memo, which you have. The Queen Greek
1:06:58memo was published in 1996
1:07:02and it laid out a plan for how Israel
1:07:05can become the dominant hegeimad in the
1:07:08Middle East. It's written by a study
1:07:11group and part of the study group there
1:07:13were two individuals. They were Richard
1:07:15Pearl and others five. These two would
1:07:21in the George W administration sorry
1:07:23George W. Bush administration go working
1:07:27in the Pentagon and these two along with
1:07:28Paul Wolfitz were the chief architects
1:07:31of Iraq war. So I named these people and
1:07:35I explained how this war in Iran follows
1:07:38from the clean brick memo and the goal
1:07:39is to establish Israel as the regional
1:07:41hedgeimon and I think this is what got
1:07:44me into a lot of trouble.
1:07:45>> Why do you think that got you into a lot
1:07:47of trouble?
1:07:47>> Because I'm a Canadian. when I come into
1:07:50the country, they usually don't bother
1:07:51me. And so for them to question me, I
1:07:57think it was because some top officials
1:08:01basically requested that I be put in
1:08:03secondary every time I come to the
1:08:04United States. And I I also believe this
1:08:06because I have a friend Max Bumantho who
1:08:09is a very good US journalist and he was
1:08:12in Iran covering Kam's funeral. In
1:08:16response um a social media influencer
1:08:20named Laura Loomer
1:08:23demanded his arrest. And so when
1:08:26Maxville came into the country and he is
1:08:29a US citizen by the way, his devices
1:08:31were confiscated.
1:08:34And now Max Bumo is suing the Department
1:08:37of Homeland Security for
1:08:40illegally uh confiscating his devices.
1:08:44And so I think that we live in a time
1:08:46when unfortunately the empire is in
1:08:49decline and because of hubris and
1:08:52arrogance they are trying to silence
1:08:54their critics rather than accept our
1:08:57constructive criticisms.
1:09:00>> Okay. So it's a theory.
1:09:01>> Absolutely. Right. They never told me
1:09:03why I was put in secondary, but he
1:09:06hinted at me that every time I come to
1:09:09United States, I will be put into
1:09:12secondary to make sure that I'm coming
1:09:15United States for legitimate reasons.
1:09:17Also, he hitted at me that it is
1:09:19possible that once my I94 expires in 6
1:09:22months, they will not renew it, meaning
1:09:24they will not let allow me in the
1:09:25country anymore. I hope I come back to
1:09:28United States. I I have the deepest
1:09:30admiration for the American people. I
1:09:32think that the Americans are the most
1:09:34open and generous people in the world.
1:09:36But at the same time, I do appreciate
1:09:39that we are living in very interesting
1:09:42times.
1:09:44>> Prediction three.
1:09:45>> Okay. My third prediction
1:09:47is that
1:09:49Lionel Messi will become president of
1:09:51Argentina.
1:09:53>> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that.
1:09:54>> Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions
1:09:56that were fun and interesting for us to
1:09:59uh discuss. So why I make this
1:10:01prediction is
1:10:04that Argentina
1:10:06is working very closely with the United
1:10:08States and Israel at this moment. You
1:10:12are a British citizen, so you will
1:10:14appreciate that
1:10:16Argentina
1:10:18has recently demanded the return of the
1:10:20Faullands.
1:10:22And Donald Trump has voiced support to
1:10:27Argentina.
1:10:29So I'm asking myself, why are they so
1:10:32concerned about the Folklands?
1:10:35And not only that, but if you've been
1:10:38following the news, Hav Malay has become
1:10:41very close with Benjamin Benjamin
1:10:42Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have
1:10:45very strong relations. In fact,
1:10:48Argentina is welcoming Israeli
1:10:50investment and immigration into
1:10:54Argentina.
1:10:56And apparently if you are an Israeli
1:10:58citizen and you go into Argentina and
1:11:01again you can fact check this but from
1:11:03what I understand you have immediate
1:11:05access to their healthcare as well as
1:11:06pension which makes actually no sense
1:11:09because they're not Argentina citizens
1:11:10right so it seems very much that
1:11:13Argentina is working very close with
1:11:16Israel and the United States and the
1:11:19reason why why I think that is and
1:11:21Argentina are working very close
1:11:22together is right now there's almost a
1:11:25civil war in Israel, when Misianic Jews
1:11:29who believe this war in the Middle East
1:11:33will usher in the end times and the
1:11:34coming of the Messiah, and secular Jews
1:11:37who are like, "These people are insane."
1:11:40And so, the only way to resolve this
1:11:42conflict is by exporting secular Jews
1:11:46elsewhere. And it seems to me, um,
1:11:48Argentina is a very good place to export
1:11:51them. So, but then you're like, okay,
1:11:54how do you get the people of Argentina
1:11:57to accept this massive immigration into
1:12:02into Argentina from Israel? Because
1:12:03Israel is not very popular in Argentina.
1:12:07I think the best way is to make Lionelo
1:12:10Messi the president of Argentina and his
1:12:14popularity will be enough to let all
1:12:17these Israelis into the country. Him as
1:12:20well as the reclaiming of the Faulland
1:12:22Islands, right? These two things, you
1:12:24know, the God of Argentina becomes
1:12:27president and Argentina reclaims the
1:12:29Faullands from the British. And I'm I
1:12:32apologize to you as as a British
1:12:34citizen.
1:12:35>> It's okay. I like Missy. Um, you you
1:12:38also mentioned to me that you think
1:12:39Japan is going to go to war with China.
1:12:41Well, China is going to go to war with
1:12:42Japan.
1:12:42>> Yes.
1:12:43>> What makes you think that?
1:12:44>> Well, because every Chinese believes
1:12:46this. [laughter]
1:12:47>> Yes. So, it's the funniest thing, but
1:12:48like for the longest time, people
1:12:51believe that China will eventually
1:12:54invade Taiwan. This is what's very
1:12:56commonly accepted in the West. But if
1:13:01you actually go to China, no Chinese
1:13:03actually believes this and no Taiwanese
1:13:05actually believes this because um this
1:13:08is not the way that China actually goes
1:13:11about its foreign policy. It does not go
1:13:13and invade other countries or in its
1:13:16most recent history it has not been that
1:13:19aggressive. The last war that China
1:13:21fought was in Vietnam. This was was in
1:13:23the mid early 80s. Okay, so this is a
1:13:25long time. [gasps] But if you go to
1:13:28China today,
1:13:30everyone believes that China and Japan
1:13:34will go to war. And to appreciate this,
1:13:38you have to understand the geography of
1:13:40Southeast Asia.
1:13:41>> Should you try to throw something up on
1:13:43the screen?
1:13:43>> Yeah. Okay. So, what I want to do is use
1:13:47geography to explain why conflict
1:13:50between China and Japan is inevitable at
1:13:55this point. Okay. So you have Japan,
1:13:59okay? And you have China.
1:14:03Okay. So the first thing to appreciate
1:14:05is that these are two very different
1:14:07countries. China is a land power that is
1:14:11self-sufficient.
1:14:13Japan is a sea power that is dependent
1:14:18on resources from abroad. So
1:14:20historically, China was primarily an
1:14:23agricultural nation. Japan in order to
1:14:26survive engage in piracy. So the
1:14:28Japanese have always been pretty
1:14:30militaristic. They have a very they had
1:14:32a cyber culture for the longest time.
1:14:34They were always at war with each other.
1:14:37Um and the Japanese people are extremely
1:14:39resilient and cohesive because the
1:14:42geography of Japan is very unstable.
1:14:44There's lots of earthquakes. There's lot
1:14:46tsunamis. So they have to work together
1:14:47as a people in order to survive. This is
1:14:51important because this war in Iran is
1:14:55affecting both China and Japan. China
1:14:58will probably have to de-industrialize.
1:15:01But if Japan doesn't do anything, then
1:15:04it's possible in the next 50 years Japan
1:15:07cease to exist. Because not only is
1:15:09Japan dependent on energy and imports
1:15:12and resources from overseas, but has an
1:15:15aging population, it has the most
1:15:17elderly population in the world. So in a
1:15:21time of war, when the United States is
1:15:23no longer able to give you protection,
1:15:26Japan needs to create resource colonies.
1:15:30And historically, Southeast Asia right
1:15:32here
1:15:34has been the main resource colony of
1:15:36Japan. If it doesn't have Southeast
1:15:39Asia, the United States now becomes the
1:15:42main benefactor of Japan. And Japan
1:15:46doesn't want to be in that position
1:15:47because that's what happened in World
1:15:48War II when uh Japan got most of its
1:15:51energy from the United States. And when
1:15:52the United States embargoled Japan,
1:15:54Japan was forced to declare war on the
1:15:57United States. Okay? Okay. So, United
1:15:58States can provide Japan with all its
1:16:01energy needs, but that would make Japan
1:16:03completely subservient. So, Japan wants
1:16:06to basically access the resources of
1:16:08Southeast Asia. There's a problem
1:16:10though, and that problem is called
1:16:11Taiwan.
1:16:13Taiwan is right in the middle
1:16:17of the South China Sea. And if China and
1:16:21Taiwan were to reunify, what China
1:16:25couldn't do now is embargo Japan. I'm
1:16:28not saying China will do so, but I'm
1:16:30saying that China has the option of
1:16:32doing so. And that's and Japan sees that
1:16:35as a threat to it existence. In fact, um
1:16:38a few
1:16:39>> say embargo. What does embargo mean?
1:16:41>> Embargo means you blockade. Okay.
1:16:44>> But if they did this, wouldn't the whole
1:16:46hell would break loose? You know, Japan
1:16:48are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's
1:16:51going to get messy. It's going to
1:16:52impact. I'm not saying that China would
1:16:54embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the
1:16:56option of doing so.
1:16:57>> But you are saying that China is going
1:16:59to attack Japan.
1:17:00>> No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a
1:17:01conflict between between these two
1:17:02nations.
1:17:03>> Okay. I thought you said it was
1:17:04inevitable.
1:17:05>> Yes. So, so let me explain how how this
1:17:07would draw, how this will play out.
1:17:09Okay. So,
1:17:11Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue as
1:17:15vital to its national security interest.
1:17:16And that's what exactly what Prime
1:17:18Minister Taki said a few months ago. And
1:17:20when she made that statement, China
1:17:23overreacted. So before you had millions
1:17:26of tourists from China visiting Japan a
1:17:29year. Now most of them are not allowed
1:17:32to go to Japan.
1:17:35And it's very likely that China and
1:17:37Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan.
1:17:42Now the thing to remember is it does not
1:17:45benefit any nation here to a war because
1:17:49as you point out all chaos would break
1:17:51out. What you need to do is create
1:17:55leverage to negotiate better terms.
1:17:58Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying
1:18:00okay look we can't take on China
1:18:04directly because China is too powerful
1:18:06but what what we can do is build
1:18:09alliances to possibly challenge and if
1:18:14we have to embargo China right so what
1:18:17Japan is doing is build alliance with
1:18:18the Philippines
1:18:21and Australia
1:18:23and India
1:18:27and together these four nations even
1:18:29without the United States they could in
1:18:32theory choose to embargo China
1:18:37right what Japan needs is access to
1:18:39Southeast Asia because that will be the
1:18:42main source of its resources going into
1:18:45the future so that is the scenario being
1:18:47played out now China does not want to
1:18:51come into a conflict with Japan why
1:18:54because China is seen as the big bad
1:18:57dragon in this area and if China is seen
1:19:00as too provocative that would basically
1:19:04incentivize all of Southeast Asia to
1:19:06gang up on China. So you can see
1:19:09alliance between India, Southeast Asia,
1:19:11Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South
1:19:15Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China.
1:19:18Okay. So the way to resolve this issue
1:19:23is to use a proxy
1:19:26in order to threaten Japan in order to
1:19:30uh develop more leverage
1:19:32over Japan in negotiations,
1:19:34>> right? And that proxy of course is North
1:19:37Korea.
1:19:39So, North Korea
1:19:41has the potential to shell South Korea
1:19:45because most of the population of South
1:19:47Korea lives within 20 minutes of North
1:19:50Korea. And so, in theory, North Korea
1:19:52could flatten Soul in just a day. Okay.
1:19:55Most of North Korean artillery is
1:19:57actually by the border. What North Korea
1:20:00could also do is lobby missiles into the
1:20:03Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese.
1:20:06Okay, so this is the dynamic being
1:20:08played out where Japan through its
1:20:11proxies primarily Philippines is
1:20:14challenging Chinese naval dominance in
1:20:17the South China Sea and China will use
1:20:19North Korea as a proxy to threaten South
1:20:22Korea and Japan. Over time, as the
1:20:27United States retreats from uh the
1:20:31Asia-Pacific, this conflict between
1:20:33China and Japan will get worse and
1:20:35worse. And the reason main reason why is
1:20:39it is in the strategic best interest of
1:20:41the United States to ferment as much
1:20:43tension between China and Japan as
1:20:45possible.
1:20:46>> But it could compromise Taiwan. No,
1:20:49>> who cares?
1:20:51>> The US care about Taiwan?
1:20:52>> No, it doesn't. I thought that's who we
1:20:54get all of our semiconductors from.
1:20:56>> But what does Trump want to do? He wants
1:20:59the Taiwanese to move their
1:21:01semiconductor industry to the United
1:21:03States. And that's already happening
1:21:05where TSMC,
1:21:07the main semiconductor u company in
1:21:10Taiwan, is open a I believe it's 2020 20
1:21:14billion new factory in Arizona. So if
1:21:18there's a conflict between China and
1:21:21Japan, the the tension becomes worse and
1:21:23worse, the Taiwanese semiconductor
1:21:24industry, it would be forced to relocate
1:21:27the United States, would be in the best
1:21:29interests of the Americans.
1:21:32>> You also think that um Russia are going
1:21:35to invade the Baltics.
1:21:37>> Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and
1:21:40go into Europe. All right. Okay. But but
1:21:44is this pretty clear?
1:21:45>> Yes, it is clear.
1:21:46>> Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe
1:21:53supporting Ukraine
1:21:56in its war against Russia.
1:22:01Okay. And most of this war is actually
1:22:04happening in eastern Ukraine. And Russia
1:22:08seems to be winning a lot of territory
1:22:11in eastern Ukraine. But everybody's
1:22:14saying that Ukraine are fighting back
1:22:16really really well.
1:22:17>> The reason why is what Ukraine has
1:22:19chosen to do in these past few months
1:22:21which has which has changed the contours
1:22:23of the war is Ukraine is using drones to
1:22:26attack Russia's energy infrastructure
1:22:29>> and just hitting Russia in general is
1:22:31making the people of Russia change their
1:22:32perception.
1:22:32>> Exactly. Right. So before this conflict
1:22:35was contained to eastern Ukraine, it
1:22:39didn't affect the people of Russia. In
1:22:40fact, it really was helping the economy
1:22:43of Russia because Russia could still
1:22:45export its oil around the world. Now,
1:22:48Ukraine, what Ukraine is doing is using
1:22:50drones to attack the war refineries of
1:22:54Russia, which is causing economic pain
1:22:57on the Russian people and this is making
1:23:00uh Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay?
1:23:04So, the contour of the war has changed.
1:23:06So if you're Russia and you're looking
1:23:08at this, you think your enemy is not
1:23:11Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO
1:23:14Europe. Why? Because Ukraine the drones
1:23:18are being manufactured
1:23:21in Germany
1:23:23and the UK and other places as well. So
1:23:27in theory, Ukraine could fight this war
1:23:30to infinity because its manufacturing
1:23:33hub is in Europe. Europe is is is also
1:23:37providing Ukraine with infinite
1:23:38financing as well as intelligence. Okay.
1:23:42So, if you're Russia, you're like, "Wait
1:23:43a minute here. Over time, we can't
1:23:46possibly win this war of attrition
1:23:48because we're funding Europe and
1:23:50Europe's manufacturing
1:23:52capacity is well protected behind the
1:23:55NATO alliance." Okay. So what I need to
1:23:58do is provoke NATO and Europe into
1:24:03coming into Ukraine. Basically force
1:24:06them out of their shell shell, right?
1:24:10And so what's been happening is Germany
1:24:13and Russia have been in conflict these
1:24:16past few months. In early August,
1:24:19there's a drone attack on Libig airport.
1:24:22Okay, Libig airport.
1:24:26and the Germans blamed the Russians and
1:24:28in response the Germans closed down the
1:24:31Russ Russian consulate in Bond as well
1:24:34as remove certain Russians from uh
1:24:37Germany. Russia is retaliating by
1:24:40closing the German consulate in St.
1:24:42Petersburg and the Russian foreign
1:24:46minister S Lav have have said we are in
1:24:50a similar situation to 1941. What
1:24:53happened in 1941? the Germans invaded
1:24:54Russia. Okay, so in other words, Russia
1:24:58recognizes that if they just leave
1:25:01Europe alone and just fight this war in
1:25:03Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so
1:25:06they must force and provoke Europe into
1:25:09mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And
1:25:13one way to do that is by hitting
1:25:18critical manufacturing infrastructure
1:25:20within Europe. Do you think Russia
1:25:22Russia's next move is to attack within
1:25:25NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.?
1:25:28>> It has no choice. It It has to do this.
1:25:30>> Can't it just do a deal with Trump?
1:25:33Like, you know, they're trying to do a
1:25:34deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared
1:25:35Kushner is apparently trying to get a
1:25:36deal done between Ukraine and Russia.
1:25:37And so, if the United States, do you
1:25:42want peace between Europe and Russia, or
1:25:45do you want war between Europe and
1:25:47Russia? Well, from a gameplay
1:25:49perspective, you're better off with war.
1:25:52Why? Because if there's war, Russia
1:25:55can't sell it energy overseas.
1:25:58United States has monopoly over energy
1:26:00now, right?
1:26:00>> This causes global instability, though.
1:26:03If there's a war here, then it's going
1:26:04to impact the US in a big way.
1:26:06>> Well, then why the United States invade
1:26:08Iran, right? Because they thought it
1:26:10would be an overnight Venezuela
1:26:12situation where you decapitate the
1:26:13leadership, everyone rises up, you have
1:26:14a favorable leader in the country that
1:26:17you is subservient to you.
1:26:18>> Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how
1:26:22the empire thinks, right? We already
1:26:24used this formula, right? Yeah.
1:26:25>> Now, if we apply this formula to Europe
1:26:28situation, then the thinking is, well,
1:26:31Putin is a paper tiger. He is very
1:26:34unpopular at home. If we just force this
1:26:37war for another two months, if we
1:26:40continue to attack the energy
1:26:41infrastructure of Russia, then
1:26:42eventually people will rise up and
1:26:44overthrow Putin. Right? The same logic.
1:26:48>> So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to
1:26:51win
1:26:53or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what
1:26:54they're doing.
1:26:55>> Well, Trump personally doesn't care,
1:26:59right? Because the more war there is,
1:27:02the more the Europeans are forced to
1:27:04rely on American energy.
1:27:07>> Okay?
1:27:08>> So, if you're Putin, what you need to do
1:27:12is force the Europeans into war in
1:27:15Ukraine. Why? Because there's only
1:27:18really only one path to victory in this
1:27:20scenario.
1:27:22The path of victory is to cause
1:27:25instability
1:27:26and violence
1:27:29in Europe. Okay. The idea is if you
1:27:33force Europe to mass mobilize, the
1:27:36people would rather overthrow the
1:27:39government than agree to take up arms
1:27:41against Russia. That's a theory. Okay.
1:27:44But Russia has exactly one path to
1:27:46victory and that is to cause as much
1:27:48instability and violence as possible
1:27:50within Europe. The best way to do that
1:27:52is by forcing the Europeans to mass
1:27:55mobilize their population. Okay? But for
1:27:57that to happen, what Russia needs to do
1:28:00first is declare total war.
1:28:04What total war means is the mass
1:28:06mobilization
1:28:08of your society. So what's important for
1:28:10us to appreciate is so far Russia has
1:28:13not declared war on Ukraine. It is a
1:28:16special military operation
1:28:19which means that Russia is relying on
1:28:22volunteers to fight this war. In a time
1:28:25of total war, Russia could mobilize its
1:28:29ADA population. And we estimate there
1:28:32are at least three million
1:28:36reser in Russia ready to be called up to
1:28:40arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would
1:28:43force mass mobilization in Europe. And
1:28:46this is how the war is most likely uh
1:28:50will most likely turn out.
1:28:53I mean I guess the other thing that's I
1:28:55mean listen professor there's a sounds
1:28:58like there's a lot of conflict on the
1:28:59way
1:29:00>> there's an acceleration underway
1:29:02>> what would have to be true for us to sit
1:29:04here in 2036
1:29:06and for there not to have been a
1:29:08conflict between China and Japan for the
1:29:12uh Iran situation to have cooled off the
1:29:14Ukraine war is either you know where it
1:29:16is now or it's uh regressed the clean
1:29:20memo that's changed history.
1:29:22>> So what what are you saying spec
1:29:24specifically? What would have to be the
1:29:26case for none of these sort of
1:29:27catastrophic things to take place?
1:29:28>> Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was
1:29:31published in 1996. Now Yahoo came in
1:29:34power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we
1:29:38lived in a world of neoliberalism,
1:29:40something called Washington Census. And
1:29:42the idea is we have developed a new
1:29:46model of history. If people just traded
1:29:51with each other and consumers just
1:29:54bought goods, we would have peace
1:29:56forever. Okay, this is what we call
1:29:59neoliberalism, Washington consensus.
1:30:02And Bill Clinton
1:30:04was the main proponent
1:30:07of this idea. And in order to achieve
1:30:10this vision for global peace, what he
1:30:14did was promote the Oslo peace process
1:30:18which sought to create a two-state
1:30:19solution and bring peace in the Middle
1:30:23East. Right? The two-state solution is
1:30:24the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed
1:30:26to live side by side. And at that time
1:30:29the main thinking was
1:30:32that once peace happened in the Middle
1:30:35East once a two-state solution was
1:30:37created then they would start to trade
1:30:38with each other. Israel and Palestine be
1:30:42brought into the GCC and they would be
1:30:46part of the global supply chain and once
1:30:49prosperity comes to Israel and Palestine
1:30:52they would have no need to ever hate
1:30:56each other again. This is called the
1:30:58also peace process. Okay. And again at
1:31:00that time this was just how policymakers
1:31:03in Washington understood the world
1:31:05right? It worked in China. It worked in
1:31:08Japan. It worked in Germany. The Japan
1:31:11and Germany were these really militant
1:31:13nation states. But then we allowed them
1:31:15to trade. We allowed their consumers to
1:31:17have air conditioning SUVs and now
1:31:19they're just really peaceful people. So
1:31:21why can't we do the same thing in Israel
1:31:24and Palestine? So what is the clean
1:31:26break theory? What? What in a sentence?
1:31:29>> The clean brick theory is this.
1:31:31Netanyahu came into power and basically
1:31:34his argument is we can never ever trust
1:31:39the Arabs not to hate us. We are
1:31:42Israelis.
1:31:44We have been promised this land by God.
1:31:48And the Arabs see us as enemies. And
1:31:54whatever we do, they will always hate
1:31:56us. So screw peace, screw compromise.
1:32:00Let us become the regional hedgemon
1:32:03because that is our manifest destiny.
1:32:06That is what God told us to do. That is
1:32:08what is written in the Bible. And that's
1:32:10what we were born to do. Okay? And this
1:32:12is something called the clean brick
1:32:14memo. And the clean brick memo had three
1:32:17major pillars that have that have all
1:32:19been achieved today. Okay? The first
1:32:21pillar is stop the also peace process.
1:32:24Do not give more land to the
1:32:26Palestinians because the Palestinians
1:32:29are animals and the way to treat animals
1:32:31is by beating the crap out of them.
1:32:34Okay. Do not treat them nicely. They
1:32:36will
1:32:38um
1:32:39they will hate you.
1:32:40>> So wait, are you saying that the way to
1:32:42stop all of the pessimism that we talked
1:32:44about happening is by the clean break
1:32:47theory succeeding?
1:32:49>> No. No, no, no. What I said was in 1995
1:32:52there was already a theory in place
1:32:53called neol liberalism that offered a
1:32:55solution to the Israel Palestine issue
1:32:59that has been plaguing the Middle East
1:33:01for the past few decades. And if they
1:33:03had follow that through then we live in
1:33:05a very different time.
1:33:06>> Okay. So to to my question my question
1:33:08is and what would have to be the case
1:33:10for this all the things you've described
1:33:12the the the wars and the conflict not to
1:33:14happen.
1:33:15>> Right. What would have happened is the
1:33:17United States had pressured Israel into
1:33:21seeking peace with the Arab nations.
1:33:23>> Okay. So the US need to get Israel to be
1:33:27friends with the Arab nations.
1:33:29>> Yes. You force it because Israel simply
1:33:31dependent on you for technology, for
1:33:34financing, for arms. Israel is the
1:33:38biggest recipient of American foreign
1:33:41policy uh aid. So, just for those that
1:33:44want to know what the clean break theory
1:33:46is, it was it's called a clean break, a
1:33:49new strategy for securing the realm. It
1:33:51refers to a prominent 1996 policy
1:33:53documented um and then prepared for
1:33:56Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led
1:33:59by American neoonservative strategists.
1:34:02Um did he read this me memo?
1:34:05>> He commissioned it.
1:34:06>> He commissioned it. Okay. And the key
1:34:08objectives of the clean break are, as
1:34:10you said, the first one, abandoning land
1:34:12for peace, which advocated for moving
1:34:13away from the Oslo Accords framework,
1:34:16shifting to a posture of peace through
1:34:18strength and peace for peace without
1:34:20giving up any territory. Number two,
1:34:21regional dominance. It recommended
1:34:23transcending the Israel Palestine
1:34:24conflict by focusing on weakening
1:34:26regional adversaries, specifically
1:34:28advocating for the containment or
1:34:30removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and
1:34:32Syria, and dismantling the Iraq Syria
1:34:34Hezbollah access. And lastly, preemptive
1:34:37action. It urged Israel to abandon
1:34:39defensive containment policies in favor
1:34:41of proactive offensive strategies. And
1:34:44that's exactly what Israel is doing
1:34:45today. This is what Israel has done for
1:34:48the past 30 years. It has promoted
1:34:51regime change in Syria, in Iraq.
1:34:54>> And so the conclusion here is to stop
1:34:56this sort of conflict escalating,
1:34:58they have to reverse course with this
1:35:00strategy.
1:35:01>> The US needs to contain Israel. Yes.
1:35:04Okay.
1:35:06But what I'm arguing is it's too late
1:35:08because you you've already unleashed
1:35:10these structural forces that will
1:35:12collapse the global trade system. In
1:35:14which case, it's every nation for
1:35:17itself. I mean, you you've already
1:35:19created the conditions for Japan and
1:35:22China to go to war. You've already
1:35:24created conditions for Germany and
1:35:25Russia to go to war. It's no longer you
1:35:28can't put the gene back back in the
1:35:30bottle again.
1:35:32>> What does this mean? you know, a lot of
1:35:33mo most of us aren't involved in
1:35:34politics. So, um, we just kind of watch
1:35:36this stuff and we have to sort of figure
1:35:38out what to do with our our families and
1:35:40our lives
1:35:42in spite of this sort of craziness that
1:35:43we see in the news and the global
1:35:45conflict and all that stuff. What is the
1:35:46advice that you have for the average
1:35:48person?
1:35:49>> The best advice I can give to the
1:35:51average person is believe in God. So, I
1:35:58am a product of the meritocracy. I
1:36:00received the best education in the world
1:36:02and I feel the best education in the
1:36:06world makes you think the world is
1:36:09materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as
1:36:12a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I
1:36:16was a deeply
1:36:18angry, depressed, frustrated
1:36:22person because if God doesn't exist,
1:36:25there's no order and structure to what's
1:36:28going on and it's just complete chaos
1:36:32and there can be no hope or light in
1:36:35chaos.
1:36:37And because
1:36:39I married a wonderful woman who I think
1:36:42is really an angel, because I have like
1:36:44three beautiful children, I do believe
1:36:48there's a plan and a structure and order
1:36:52and reason to the world. And I've come
1:36:56in the past two years, and it's only
1:36:59been recent, okay? It's only been the
1:37:00past two years when I have a true belief
1:37:04in God.
1:37:05>> So, it's all going to be okay.
1:37:07Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe
1:37:12in God and you need to focus on your
1:37:17family. Then it will be all right.
1:37:20>> So don't focus on protesting in the
1:37:23streets or elections or any of those
1:37:25things.
1:37:27If you believe in God and you focus on
1:37:31your family, sometimes you're compelled
1:37:34to take action. Because I believe in
1:37:37God, I live a life following one simple
1:37:42principle, which is speak the truth. Why
1:37:46am I on your show? Why did I spend the
1:37:50past month
1:37:52um going on so many different podcasts?
1:37:54Because it's important people know the
1:37:56truth. If you really believe in God, if
1:37:59you really focus on your family, you
1:38:01have a personal and moral responsibility
1:38:04to speak the truth. If you know what's
1:38:07going to happen, then speak it. Why are
1:38:09you doing this? What good will do? It
1:38:12doesn't matter. It's just like your
1:38:14faith in God
1:38:17compels you to live the truth to and to
1:38:20speak the truth and to spread the the
1:38:22truth. So just because you believe in
1:38:25God doesn't mean okay now I believe in
1:38:27God and now I can just sit back and hide
1:38:30in my room and play computer games all
1:38:32day doesn't mean that. It means if you
1:38:34truly believe in God and you believe
1:38:35there's a plan then you have to take
1:38:37action and you have to participate in
1:38:40the world because why else would God
1:38:42create you?
1:38:44So why is God letting all of this stuff
1:38:46happen? When I look around the world I
1:38:48see lots of wars and conflict. Russia,
1:38:50Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other
1:38:51things breaking out at the moment. Why
1:38:53would God let this happen?
1:38:56>> What is the path to wisdom?
1:39:01>> Struggle, pain, failure.
1:39:03>> Yeah.
1:39:04>> Can we just have the wisdom without
1:39:05them?
1:39:06>> Well, or could you? [laughter]
1:39:09[snorts]
1:39:10>> So, we've got a lesson to learn.
1:39:11>> We have many lessons to learn. But if
1:39:13you are truly a spiritual person,
1:39:17you're thankful for this time because
1:39:21this struggle, this suffering will allow
1:39:25us to transcend ourselves.
1:39:27Where are we here to make a lot of money
1:39:30and drive fast cars? Are we here to
1:39:33learn what it means to be truly human?
1:39:36To learn what love is? To develop a
1:39:41deeper connection with God?
1:39:43I mean, I think we're here first and
1:39:47foremost to be truly human. And that
1:39:50means living a life of love, empathy,
1:39:52and imagination. And so, we go back to
1:39:55that formula where if you have too much
1:39:56wealth, you have too much fame, you have
1:39:58too much power, it's impossible for you
1:40:01to truly have imagination, empathy, and
1:40:04love.
1:40:05So, how do you correct this? Will you
1:40:07create a world of crisis? Because in a
1:40:10world of crisis, everyone, you and me,
1:40:13we're forced to look deep down and ask
1:40:14ourselves, what is truly important to
1:40:17me?
1:40:20What gives me happiness? What is meaning
1:40:22and purpose in my life? And I think the
1:40:25answer is it's my love for the people
1:40:29around me. And that's the answer that we
1:40:31will all come to. And once we come to
1:40:33this um answer, then I think that is the
1:40:36great spiritual awakening that could
1:40:37possibly redeem all of humanity.
1:40:40>> Professor, what's the most um pertinent
1:40:43thing that's front of mind for you at
1:40:44the moment that we haven't talked about?
1:40:46>> Well, I mean, we did talk about the
1:40:48coming conflict between China and Japan,
1:40:50and I worry a lot about that.
1:40:52>> What about AI? We didn't talk about that
1:40:54and that's kind of overlaid on all of
1:40:55the stories we've talked about because
1:40:56it's to do with robotics, it's energy,
1:40:58it's semiconductors, chips, it's US,
1:41:01China. Yeah. So that's a great question.
1:41:05Um and so if we go back and talk about
1:41:07global supply chains, this formula is
1:41:09very important to understand. Technology
1:41:11equals specialization times
1:41:12globalization. So in a time when global
1:41:17supply chains are breaking down in time
1:41:19of war AI cannot make that leap into
1:41:22AGI. So what will happen is
1:41:26AI will be repurposed as a control grid
1:41:31rather than AI developing the
1:41:34intelligence necessary to reduce
1:41:36scarcity to solve the most pressing
1:41:41medical problems of humanity. uh to
1:41:43solve climate change. AI will be re
1:41:46repurposed to monitor and surveil all of
1:41:51us.
1:41:52>> I think that's going to happen
1:41:52irrespective of, you know, I think
1:41:56governments are going to be increasingly
1:41:58interested in and capable of monitoring
1:42:00all of us all the time cuz we have
1:42:02cameras. We're here in New York City at
1:42:03the moment. There's cameras everywhere.
1:42:04They're just a little bit dumb. They
1:42:06don't really talk to each other.
1:42:08>> Yep. And
1:42:09>> with AI, they can all talk to each
1:42:10other. professor's walking down the
1:42:12street and he's off his way to this
1:42:13hotel and now he's in a hotel and
1:42:15>> I agree that is the most likely trend.
1:42:19But what I'm saying is all these crises
1:42:22will accelerate this trend because let's
1:42:25just say you have a siege of New York
1:42:27City. Well, Palunteer will use this
1:42:30opportunity develop um autonomous drone
1:42:32warfare that is controlled by AI.
1:42:34>> So is that your big concern with AI? Is
1:42:36it surveillance?
1:42:37>> That's not the big risk I see. The big
1:42:40risk I see is how AI can cheapen
1:42:46the human experience. How AI is almost
1:42:49dehumanizing because what people like
1:42:54Ellen Mus and Peter Theo and Soman are
1:42:56saying is computers are so much smarter
1:42:58than us. And it could be true that AI
1:43:04will eventually be able to do
1:43:06mathematics, do medical diagnostics much
1:43:10more efficiently than we are. But
1:43:12ultimately, we as humans, we're here to
1:43:14love, imagine, and have and be kind to
1:43:17other people. And that is what the human
1:43:19experience is. And if we focus too much
1:43:22on AI, that diverts and distracts us
1:43:25from our true mission, which is one of
1:43:28spiritual growth.
1:43:32Our true mission is spiritual growth.
1:43:37What do you um what gives you hope?
1:43:40Well, the only thing that gives me hope
1:43:42um
1:43:44um are my children,
1:43:47right? you met Chris, but I'm here
1:43:52because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't
1:43:55have children, first of all, I don't
1:43:57think I would be this successful because
1:43:59I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning
1:44:01in my life. But honestly, at the same
1:44:04time, I think that while children and I
1:44:06were suddenly this famous, I would
1:44:08become very corrupted very fast. I would
1:44:10just focus on the fame. I would try to
1:44:12make as much money as possible because
1:44:14while children the only purpose in life
1:44:16is competition against others, right? To
1:44:18prove that I am materally more
1:44:19successful than other people. And so I
1:44:22would just try to to uh make as much
1:44:25money as possible for myself in my 50
1:44:28minutes of fame. But now that I have
1:44:30children, I'm more much more concerned
1:44:32about building a legacy
1:44:35for them and setting a good example.
1:44:38>> Are you worried about Chris's future?
1:44:39>> I'm not. You know,
1:44:41>> I'm not all worried about his future.
1:44:43>> Why?
1:44:44>> Because my wife and I have loved him to
1:44:48the best of our ability. And the fact
1:44:51that we love him gives him the
1:44:53confidence to live his life to the
1:44:57fullest. We see every day Chris as a
1:45:00gift from God.
1:45:02>> But if the world is collapsing in your
1:45:04words, and Chris is in that world,
1:45:06>> Yeah.
1:45:06>> are you not concerned?
1:45:07>> I'm not at all concerned.
1:45:10Because we are here in order to have a
1:45:14spiritual awakening and
1:45:17all the crises they will induce deep
1:45:21reflection
1:45:22in order for us to fulfill our purpose.
1:45:25I don't know why Chris is here. When
1:45:27Chris was 2 years old, he literally told
1:45:30us, "Mom, dad, I'm from a I'm I'm from
1:45:33another world." And he named that world
1:45:35and I'm just an alien visiting you guys.
1:45:38And my wife and I, we weren't surprised.
1:45:40We're like, "We knew this." Yeah. We
1:45:42knew you were an alien. We We knew you
1:45:43came from from another world. And we
1:45:45knew that you came here to experience
1:45:49humanity for all our faults and all for
1:45:52all our problems. And we see you. We
1:45:57love you, but we will do whatever we can
1:46:00to empower you on your mission. And we
1:46:02going to try our best because ultimately
1:46:04it's your life. It's your mission. And
1:46:07we cannot ever control you. Love is
1:46:12about trust. Love is about liberation.
1:46:16Liberation from your own anxieties and
1:46:19liberation from the need to control
1:46:21others.
1:46:22Professor, we have a closing tradition
1:46:24where the last guest leaves a question
1:46:25for the next not knowing who they're
1:46:26leaving it for. The question left for
1:46:28you is, what is your biggest challenge
1:46:30and how are you working on fixing it?
1:46:34My biggest challenge is my fear, my
1:46:39doubt, my paralysis. I
1:46:43went to um the US border yesterday and
1:46:47now I'm afraid that I will never be
1:46:50allowed back in the United States after
1:46:52I I leave. I'm afraid that I might get
1:46:54banned from a lot of countries because
1:46:56all I do is talk trash about different
1:46:58countries. I've talked trash talk trash
1:47:00about China. I've talked trash about
1:47:01Canada. I've talked trash about the
1:47:03United States. If I got banned from all
1:47:04three countries, I'd be in a lot of
1:47:06trouble. And so, my constant challenge
1:47:10is to maintain my faith in God, maintain
1:47:14my faith in my family, maintain uh my
1:47:17faith in in my purpose.
1:47:19>> I hope you do. And you have a wonderful
1:47:20son. He's so He's so um
1:47:24curious is the vibe that I got from him.
1:47:27>> He's a gift from God.
1:47:29>> Very very curious. I just met him in the
1:47:30green room then and he was like he's
1:47:32playing with some Play-Doh and lots of
1:47:33toys and stuff like that and I'm not
1:47:35surprised that he is your son from the
1:47:3715 seconds I spent with him [laughter]
1:47:39cuz he's very very curious and clearly
1:47:41going to be a very smart young man. So
1:47:43congratulations. Thank you.
1:47:45>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
1:47:46where they know exactly what video you
1:47:48would like to watch next based on AI and
1:47:51all of your viewing behavior. And the
1:47:53algorithm says that this video is the
1:47:56perfect video for you. It's different
1:47:57for everybody looking right now. Check
1:47:59this video out and I bet you you might
1:48:01love it.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: The Next 9/11 Will Target Your Bank Account! | Professor Jiang by The Diary Of A CEO, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 16,591 words across 2,558 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.