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The Lithium Boom and Its Future |Ep 223| Joe Lowry — Transcript

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0:00Hello there. This is Soel Hashni, your
0:02host at Energy Prreneurs. Cheap solar
0:05power, batteries, and electric vehicles
0:08are changing the transport and energy
0:11sector as we know. I bring in guests to
0:15this podcast who will help you with
0:20their ideas to navigate this energy
0:24transition. Thank you for joining.
0:29Good morning Joy.
0:31Good morning. I'm very honored to have
0:34you on my podcast. You are one of the
0:36global leader on one of the topic that's
0:39lithium. Maybe you introduce yourself
0:42first and we see what we can learn from
0:44you today. I've been in the industry for
0:4635 years before most people knew how to
0:51spell lithium. It's been a long journey.
0:54I was fortunate to join one of the two
0:57lithium companies in the western world
0:59at the time and that's how small lithium
1:02was. I worked for FMC lithium. I was
1:06very lucky to be at the right place at
1:08the right time and had the good fortune
1:10to be the person who brought lithium to
1:13the lithium ion battery space first. I
1:16was traveling to Japan so often that my
1:18employer asked me to move my family
1:20there and I did that in the year 2000.
1:23lived in Asia for 11 years and because
1:27of that good fortune I spent a lot of
1:29time I was five and a half years in
1:31Japan five and a half years in China I
1:33traveled to both countries often when I
1:35was living in the other one and watched
1:38the whole thing grow and develop met all
1:41the
1:41players so I just had the good fortune
1:44to be at the right place at the right
1:46time later on I was the first supplier
1:49to Nissan when they brought out the
1:52Nissan Leaf and Tesla when they brought
1:55out their first, the Roadster, then the
1:58Model S. It's been a long road. The last
2:0113 years, I've been an advisor to
2:04various companies around the world,
2:06including the likes of CL. I was doing
2:10business with BYD 25 years ago. I was
2:12selling them lithium carbonate and cath
2:14materials. It's been a long journey and
2:17now it's increasingly interesting
2:20because people know what lithium is now.
2:24Yes. The first thing on the periodic
2:26table. So when you say the right time,
2:29why 2000 was the right time for lithium?
2:32Yeah. It was the right time for me to
2:34move to Asia. Japan was growing rapidly
2:38back in the early days. The US was still
2:41using nickel metal hydride batteries and
2:44cell phones. Then the Japanese were
2:46buying new cell phones every six months
2:48and the industry was growing very fast
2:50and the company I worked for had a
2:53partnership for a long time with two
2:55Japanese companies. They had a lock the
3:00business. So it was fortunate for me
3:03because from that platform I became the
3:06gajun who supplied everybody. When I
3:09went to China I was the lai who had
3:13lithium. It really couldn't have been a
3:15better time to go. I watched the naent
3:19industry mature because if you go back
3:21to 2000, it was all Japan. Then the
3:23Koreans got involved and started making
3:25batteries. Later on, China made a
3:28strategic decision to
3:32electrify their automobile business. BYD
3:35bought a stateowned car company in the
3:37early 2000s.
3:39I thought it would bankrupt them
3:41honestly, but obviously that was the
3:43wrong conclusion. BYD is now the largest
3:46EV manufacturer on the
3:49planet. Watching China grow was
3:52astounding. And it's very interesting
3:55that Japan and China are both Confucian
3:58cultures, but business culture is much
4:01different. Everybody in China wanted to
4:03be an entrepreneur, which the West
4:05didn't really understand. more
4:06entrepreneurs in China than anywhere.
4:09And if you look around Asia, a lot of
4:11the Thai
4:13entrepreneurs have Chinese DNA. So it's
4:16a very common
4:19theme. Yeah, China is quite amazing. I
4:23was
4:24working on Chinese project between 2000
4:28and 2004.
4:30One thing that they want to move faster
4:32the Chinese colleagues the senior
4:34government of China very good at seeing
4:36value you propose something innovation
4:39they are very good at watching value
4:42where with BYD 25 years ago of course
4:44nobody knew of course lithium didn't
4:47knew so what sort of vision you had at
4:49that time or you were just supporting
4:52excited about the material it was an
4:55interesting thing because Japan
4:57dominated the lithium ion face because
5:00they were the first mover. I was seeing
5:02the other side of it. I was seeing China
5:07develop quickly. There were companies
5:09trying to make batteries, trying to make
5:11cathode. It took them quite a long time.
5:14And that's what people don't understand
5:16was China really
5:18committed because for the first 10 to 15
5:21years of the lithium-ion battery
5:23industry, it was Japan first, then
5:25Korea. And Japan and Korea would not buy
5:29Chinese-made materials because they
5:30simply weren't world class
5:33quality. What they missed was that China
5:38kept doubling down on investment and
5:41kept moving forward. By
5:452002, I was going to China once a month.
5:48I would see the progress. I would come
5:50back and say to my Japanese partners and
5:56customers that you better pay attention
5:59to China and they would just wave me
6:02off. And I said, you may wave me off
6:04now, but
6:07ultimately you're going to pay the
6:09price. And that's exactly what happened
6:11this year. Japan, which was the dominant
6:14player, will have less than 5% of the
6:16lithium ion battery
6:18market. BYD and CL have over 50%.
6:23Just those two companies. Yeah. They
6:24literally have taken over the world with
6:26the battery. That's correct. You must
6:28have a very strong view about Nissan
6:30Leaf and what it could have done because
6:33I remember I got excited about electric
6:36car. I knew about the Tesla Roadstar
6:39happening but Nissan Leaf really got
6:41excited and I was in Japan and I saw
6:43went to one of the factories. Wow, this
6:46is the future. This is what's happening.
6:47Of course, that's 10 years down the
6:49track from where you
6:50started. So, Nissan a big thing.
6:56Unfortunately, if you go back to Carlos
6:59Gone was running Nissan at the time and
7:03he made a lot of promises and that car
7:06just did not deliver. I drove a leaf the
7:09first time, rented it at Osaka train
7:13station to drive to a customer in Coobe
7:17on a very cold February
7:20day and almost couldn't make it back. If
7:23you know anything about Japan, Coobe's
7:25not very far
7:26from it was clear then that he's just
7:30had to get better because Japan didn't
7:34even really embrace the leaf. The Leaf
7:36was a troubled vehicle from the
7:38beginning because it was just too
7:40limited a range. People that I knew in
7:42America that bought them. I had an
7:45example where a friend of mine in
7:48Denver had a leaf and he wanted to take
7:50me out to dinner. But he said, "I'm
7:52going to have to get my wife's car
7:53because I literally can't pick you up,
7:56go to the restaurant, and get back
7:57without
7:58recharging." That's how limited the leap
8:01was. The first step of any journey is
8:03hard. The irony was, I think the leaf
8:07was 2008. I went to the 2010 Shanghai
8:11Auto Show and literally none of the
8:13Chinese EVs had batteries in them. They
8:17were all concept cars. I started to
8:20pound on the side where the battery
8:22should be and it was clearly hollow and
8:23they asked me to stop doing that. By
8:282014, China had some reasonable
8:31products. And that was the mistake the
8:34West made is not seeing how
8:38committed and how fast China's quality
8:42was improving and the steps they were
8:44making. So that's been true in many
8:48industries, but I think the lithium ion
8:50battery is probably from a technology
8:53perspective, China's greatest
8:57success, depending on what ultimately
8:59happens with Deep Seek at that time. You
9:02must also remember and Shy's company,
9:06Better Place. I I remember that
9:08inspirational YouTube video I saw of him
9:11and of course the battery swapping was
9:13challenging because at the time I saw in
9:15Tokyo they were telling this each
9:17battery swapping place cost a million
9:19dollars and you have to wait and you
9:20have to keep all those very expensive
9:22batteries as an inventory for the next
9:24to come in. So what's your view on that
9:26one? They were doing well he was just
9:28ahead of his time and that's happened to
9:29a lot of people that had a great idea
9:32that was 10 or 15 or even 20 years too
9:35early. Look at what is happening now
9:37with battery swapping. It's becoming
9:39viable. But at that
9:41time, it got a lot of press even in the
9:45United States. From the perspective of
9:47the American consumer, it was like,
9:49okay, it's easier than recharging
9:51conceptually, but he was early. And
9:55sometimes the guys who are early go
9:57bankrupt.
9:58You mentioned the mobile phone triggered
10:01the battery industry. Of course that was
10:04the immediate use. Now there's a lot of
10:07hope that electric vehicle will go even
10:10faster. And now the jury some people of
10:13course the fossil fuel car industries
10:16and fossil fuel industries to always
10:18want to inflate the bad news that EVs
10:21are not selling but EVs are selling
10:23especially BYD it's taking over the
10:25world. What's your view of the future? I
10:28personally think the next big thing will
10:30be home batteries. You might have a 45
10:32kW or 60 kWh battery in your car. You
10:35might have two cars, but home can easily
10:37have 100 and that can really and of
10:40course ongrid large batteries. What's
10:42your view? Are we going to see lithium
10:44changing dramatically in the coming
10:46years? I made a
10:49presentation in 2010 to the company I
10:52work for at the time as management and I
10:54said I believe that by
10:572025 energy storage for renewables
11:01for the grid for wind for solar would be
11:04as big or bigger than even I had the
11:06right idea my timing was a little off
11:08but I believe that will ultimately
11:10happen. you see the need for energy for
11:14AI. You have a lot of things going, but
11:17I don't view EVs right now are dominant
11:20as far as lithium demand goes, but
11:22energy storage is growing at a faster
11:24rate. And then you layer
11:27in and I I get people that ask me about
11:29this all the time. Drones, robots are
11:33supposed to be a huge thing by 2030. So
11:36the whole concept of the
11:40battery is much bigger than electric
11:43vehicles. In the west, the United
11:46States, and even the EU, they've said,
11:49"Oh, it's not growing as fast as we
11:52thought. Nobody wants an EV." Which
11:54isn't really true. EVs are still growing
11:57globally faster than anybody thought
11:59because of BYD. China right now is kind
12:02of like the US was in the early 1900s.
12:05is we had hundreds of car companies that
12:06wound up becoming the big three. I think
12:09you'll see a similar situation in China.
12:11I don't think it'll be down to three,
12:13but I think
12:15the hundreds of EV makers will wind up
12:20being less than 10. China knows how to
12:23manage their
12:25economy quite well and they know how to
12:29use incentives I would say much better
12:32than the west does at least in the last
12:3425 years. I think if we looked out to
12:382035 2040 still may be the largest
12:41demand but energy storage is very close
12:44and there's a lot of other battery
12:46demands
12:47that we're not even sure of how big
12:50they're going to be. Electric vehicle is
12:52not just a four-wheelers. There is a
12:55three-wheers, there's a whole two-wheers
12:57and then you mentioned drones and then
13:00electric planes for short distance
13:03flights become suddenly viable. So I
13:06think there's no end to it. If we could
13:08store energy, God knows where else we
13:10will store and what else we'll put.
13:12Yeah. Yeah. And the big question that
13:14I'm often asked is, won't something come
13:17along and replace lithium ion? And
13:21certainly that'll happen, but it will
13:23still probably use lithium because
13:25unless the periodic table changes,
13:27whether it's solid state or some other
13:30form, more than likely, lithium is still
13:34going to be the dominant battery
13:38material when you and I are both gone.
13:41Yeah, exactly. As you
13:43mentioned, unless there's a new periodic
13:46table or you have a helium battery,
13:49lithium is the lightest, right? And even
13:52all those pundits that said hydrogen
13:55will be the dominant form for
13:57transportation. Well, how's that going?
14:00It never made sense because hydrogen car
14:03is an electric car and if you are going
14:06to store why you have to convert into
14:08something else which is highly
14:11flammable,
14:12dangerous and god knows what else and
14:15then put it back and run the fuel cell
14:17cars never took over. You must have a
14:19view on Toyota mir.
14:22No, as great a company as Toyota's bad
14:25and I actually still drive a Lexus.
14:27Toyota just continues to call this
14:29market wrong. They got a lot of credit
14:30last year in the US because hybrids got
14:33very popular. But what Americans don't
14:36really understand is that when you look
14:37at the global car
14:40market, we're just not as important as
14:43we used to be.
14:45Toyota has gone back and forth for
14:48different technologies and they've
14:51called the market wrong more than
14:53they've called it right the last 10
14:54years. I don't think Toyota is really
14:56the company to be watching now. I think
14:58they're going to be in a position of
14:59just trying to play catch-up. Yeah. But
15:01I think Japan's case may be different.
15:03One of the senior official in the
15:04Japanese government once told me Toyota
15:08is almost representative of Japan and
15:11everybody has a family member works for
15:14Toyota making air conditioner and Toyota
15:17goes electric. What are these people
15:19going to do? So it's very difficult for
15:21Toyota to let go of their incumbent
15:24status because that's
15:28uh whole community behind it. So they
15:30wanted to be the products of the world
15:33saying let's see slow space and as you
15:36collectively said future is not that
15:38bright. When you juxtapose the
15:42two cultures, Japan and China, having
15:46lived in both, the one thing I love
15:49about Japan is the history and the
15:52culture, and things tend not to change.
15:55But there's a plus and a minus to that.
15:57It used to be when I would go on a
15:59three-week trip, I could come back and a
16:03bridge would be gone and then six weeks
16:06later there'd be a bridge built or a
16:09building or look
16:10at China put in 17,000 kilometers of
16:14highspeed rail in less than a decade. I
16:18was living there when the first several
16:20thousand kilometers were built
16:23and it was every bit as good. I was a
16:27weekly traveler on the Shinkansen
16:29between Osaka and Tokyo. I was shocked
16:33when I rode my first long ride out of
16:36Bullet Train in China from Shanghai. The
16:40biggest difference was there was still
16:42so much pollution in China that for most
16:46of that ride you couldn't see more than
16:47300 m left or right. But the train
16:52worked every bit as well as the Japanese
16:54train. Yes. and they are continuously
16:57improving.
16:58Yeah, that's an absolute fact and that's
17:01something I think
17:05is hard for some of the competitors to
17:09accept. When I lived in China, it was
17:13mostly ICE and Volkswagen and GM taught
17:18China how to have a car industry. And
17:21now both companies are suffering from
17:25the fact that they didn't make the
17:28transition to electric very well and now
17:30it's out of their hands. Yes. And all
17:33over Asia, you go around even in
17:36Australia, we have so many BYDs. I think
17:39right now we have maybe one of the
17:41largest collection of new generation
17:44Chinese car entering Australian market.
17:47It's all over the world now except for
17:49the United States.
17:51But we'll see. I honestly
17:53believe the US should take a chapter
17:56from China's book and should welcome CL
18:00here for battery, welcome BYD here for
18:04EVs. And that's not a hugely popular
18:08position. Although I think Trump may
18:11surprise a lot of people because he
18:13wants to make deals and that may be one
18:17of the smartest deals he could make
18:20because Neo is not doing extremely well.
18:22Neo is struggling. Their car is very
18:24advanced and I think Xiaomi is very
18:26popular in China. Xiaomi car. Yeah, I've
18:29got a good friend that has a company
18:31that follows the China EV industry
18:34closely. I've had him on my podcast a
18:36couple of times and he still spent a lot
18:39of time in China and getting the
18:41latest, but he grew up in
18:44Detroit. His his family worked for GM.
18:48It's interesting to hear his
18:50perspective, but anybody that really
18:52follows it closely just says China is
18:54handing not just the US automakers, the
18:57Mercedes, the BMWs, the Europeans as
19:00well. Yeah. So what's your vision and
19:05views on when you take the AI which is
19:09driving super fast on the car and
19:12autonomous vehicle and those thinking do
19:16we need that many cars or really
19:18autonomous car will change the world the
19:20way a lot of discussions were in the
19:22past it's too early to really predict
19:25the numbers I took my first autonomous
19:28car ride in Phoenix Izona last June
19:34and was a completely positive
19:38experience. It was odd and strange to be
19:40in a car with no driver, but I can see
19:46that taking a huge chunk out of the
19:50number of cars
19:52necessary. But then there's the cultural
19:54aspect. I think in some countries, and I
19:57think I live in one of them, people
20:00aren't ready for that yet. It'll be a
20:03thing where it takes time. I don't think
20:05that will quickly be adopted here, but
20:08we'll see how the impact is in China and
20:13autonomous. Love the Tesla full
20:16self-driving. Trust it
20:19probably more than they should, but
20:22yeah, it's definitely going to happen.
20:25Whether that takes the car market down
20:27by
20:2830%. Or
20:3040%. I don't know.
20:33No, ultimately it will have a huge
20:35impact. It's just how long it takes. I
20:37also add to that fact that the aging
20:41population. I remember when I first saw
20:44my dad saying, "Okay, this is the last
20:46day I'm driving no longer." And I could
20:47not relate to the man without driving. I
20:50always worried I will not qualify for
20:52driving. But now as people living
20:56longer, so I think there will be another
20:58segment coming in. Yes, there may not be
21:01enough people to drive you around even
21:03if you could afford it. That might also
21:06drive a whole set of public transport
21:10replacement in a way autonomous car
21:12driving around. The other aspect of that
21:15is if you have a car that's in
21:19service 18 hours a day, battery demand
21:23lessening isn't linear because those
21:25cars are going to have to have their
21:27batteries replaced much more often than
21:29a private fleet. In my working life,
21:32most of the years I've been was working
21:35when I traveled, I rented a car every
21:38time I landed in another city. I don't
21:41rent cars anymore.
21:43Unless I have to drive a 100 miles from
21:45where I land, if I'm in the metro area,
21:48I just take an Uber. That transition
21:50happened pretty quickly. The first time
21:52I took an Uber was the day my daughter
21:55graduated from college and she goes,
21:57"Dad, we ought to just go to the
21:59restaurant in an Uber, not your rental
22:01car."
22:02And I I literally stood there, this is
22:052013, downloaded the app, put my credit
22:09card info in, and I've been an Uber guy
22:13ever since. It changed everything. Even
22:15the city you live in, you go to the
22:18central business district for a dinner
22:20on a place which is lot of traffic, you
22:24opt to take a ride sharing thing, it's
22:27much easier. You don't have to think
22:29about parking. Yeah. So I I do think
22:32from that perspective maybe things
22:34change faster than I thought because in
22:36that example that's just so common. Most
22:39of my nieces and nephews and I have a
22:41lot of them, my
22:43kids, it's Door Dash, it's Uber Eats,
22:47it's what's easy and what's on an app.
22:51So when you are not thinking batteries
22:53or lithium, what else you do for fun?
22:55Yeah, I'm the odd American. I live in
22:58the south, but I go north in the winter.
23:00I don't go to warmer weather. I go to
23:02colder weather. I grew up skiing. I grew
23:04up near the Canadian border. So, I do a
23:08lot of skiing. I hike, play golf. I do
23:11have a lot of physical things even at my
23:14advanced age. And yeah, those kind of
23:18things writing a book. It's you just you
23:21got to stay active.
23:24So, tell me about your book. What are
23:26you writing or working on? I am writing
23:28a book about my career in
23:30lithium. It's in a sense I think I have
23:32a built-in audience because of my
23:34podcast. My podcast has been downloaded
23:37in every country on earth except for
23:40Bhutan. That is so unimaginable to me
23:45because
23:46of lithium being such a niche
23:49thing and the fact that I go to
23:54conferences. Last week I was in a
23:56conference in Florida and a young man
23:57from Nigeria walked up to me and told me
24:01how my podcast was how he learned about
24:03lithium. Now he works for a lithium
24:05company. I've had that story many many
24:08times and I just think it's hard for
24:12people to imagine that when I
24:17started and I said I worked in lithium
24:19unless somebody had a manic depressive
24:21relative that was taking lithium they
24:23had no idea what I was talking about
24:25because I started working in lithium
24:26before the lithium ion battery existed.
24:28Now, literally everybody you come into
24:31contact with has lithium in their
24:33pocket. And it doesn't matter where you
24:35are. You can be in the third world.
24:38There aren't that many people on the
24:40planet that don't have some form of cell
24:42phone.
24:44I like that. Everyone has a lithium in
24:46the pocket. That could be a book title.
24:48No. That's pretty good. My title is
24:51lithium confidential, but I have a lot
24:53of stories
24:54because I knew the first Chinese lithium
24:58billionaires when they didn't have
25:00anything when they were dirt poor and
25:03had worked for stateowned
25:05enterprises and had the vision to get
25:07into lithium as their career. Now some
25:11of those guys are worth five, six, seven
25:13billion
25:14dollars. And seeing that happen is quite
25:18interesting. Now that you have seen that
25:22one of our listeners thinking okay how
25:25do I get into this space or what I
25:28should do is it too late what what do
25:31you tell the
25:32entrepreneurs/engineers who are trying
25:34to get into this space I
25:37think it's really about determination
25:40and
25:41grit most
25:44people at the end have ideas but they'll
25:48take a easy path
25:49path. But what I've seen is that if
25:53somebody's committed to get into a
25:58sector, there's a way they might have to
26:00start in a position they don't really
26:03want. I'm a great example of that. I ran
26:06the finance department in the lithium
26:08company I work for. And I immediately
26:10had said when I entered, I worked in the
26:13oil industry my first 5 years after grad
26:16school and I wanted to get into a
26:18commercial role. The HR director said,
26:20"You have no
26:21chance. You have to be a chemical
26:24engineer." And as luck would have it, we
26:28had a change in management. I made a
26:30pitch. I said, 'The problem with the
26:33guys selling lithium that are chemical
26:35engineers is they fall in love with the
26:37chemistry and they don't understand the
26:39economics. I went at it from a value
26:43perspective of you're really selling
26:45economic value when you're selling
26:46lithium. And this was not to the battery
26:48industry. This was to aluminum, grease,
26:50glass. To make up for my technical
26:54failings, I
26:57hired some of the top R&D people from my
27:02customers. As somebody would be at
27:04retirement age, I hired
27:06the ex- head of R&D at Reynolds Metals
27:09to help me with aluminum. I hired the
27:12chief geologist at Corning Glass to help
27:15me sell to the glass industry. So,
27:16there's always a way. You just have to
27:18be creative. But if I had just said HR
27:21told me I couldn't have the job, so I
27:23better go back to bean
27:25counting, we wouldn't be talking today.
27:28I like
27:30that. So people have to have a good grit
27:33and continue and never give up because
27:36the opportunities will keep on growing
27:39because lithium is not going to stop.
27:41I'm also a believer like you because
27:43it's the lightest material. I've
27:45interviewed a lot of people. I know a
27:47lot of people on the battery trends.
27:51Nothing coming online that is credible
27:54enough and light enough that can take
27:57over this space. I believe that I think
28:00that what I don't agree with is when
28:03people make it almost a religious thing
28:06and oil's not disappearing either. And I
28:11worked for an oil company for a long
28:13time. And now I advise some oil
28:15companies that are trying to get into
28:18lithium. So I don't
28:20see the guys in fossil fuel as the
28:23enemy. Actually, I see them as part of
28:25the solution because one of the biggest
28:27problems lithiums had is it had been
28:29junior miners that were always the
28:31people trying to enter and they didn't
28:33have the capital to get things done.
28:36The big oil companies can do whatever
28:38they want. A big oil company right now
28:40could still buy the entire
28:42lithium industry because if you take Rio
28:45Tintos of the world, I can see what
28:47you're saying. Rio just got in. When I
28:49started, I was never free to speak at
28:52events or write or have a podcast when I
28:55worked for a lithium company. When I
28:57started advising lithium companies, I
28:59was free to do whatever I wanted to.
29:01It's the way I structured my agreements.
29:03And what I've said for the last 10 years
29:06is we needed the big oil companies to
29:09get in. But the lithium industry was so
29:11small, the total market for lithium
29:13chemicals didn't reach a billion dollars
29:14until 2015. I used to say that, and I
29:18won't name the oil company, but I said
29:19they spill more oil in a year than the
29:21value of lithium.
29:23And that was obviously an exaggeration
29:26for effect,
29:28but go back and look at a billion-doll
29:32market is a tiny
29:34market. And we didn't get there until
29:372015. It took seven decades for the
29:41lithium market to become a million tons
29:44of lithium
29:45carbonate. How many tons of iron or sell
29:48in a year? How many tons of oil sell? If
29:51you frame it as tons, you read books
29:54about Mark Rich or somebody like that,
29:56you can frame all these numbers. Lithium
30:00still has a long way. It's just getting
30:03started. Okay. Your advice to lithium
30:05shareholders hear from a lot of people
30:08worried exposure. The market is not
30:10going anywhere. I said no. But even I
30:12have some holding as well saying
30:15electric
30:16car is the star. the home batteries and
30:19batteries everywhere is where lithium is
30:22going to go. Yeah, it's very interesting
30:25for me
30:26because people want everything to be
30:30easy and especially with Australian
30:35investors who love to put I will still
30:38say lithium is not a commodity, it's
30:40especially chemical, but it has
30:42commodity characteristics, especially
30:43with what Australia produces. Everybody
30:46jumped on the bandwagon. Everybody
30:48wanted in 2016, 2017, 2018. I started
30:51getting paid well to go to Sydney,
30:55Melbourne and present to potential
30:59investors. At that point in time, the EV
31:02market was tiny, but it was a belief.
31:06Now we have an EV market that's booming
31:09and all the lithium investors are going
31:11back to uranium or
31:13gold because we had a bubble in
31:182022. The lithium price went to 80,000
31:21on the spot market in China. Everybody
31:24that got in late thought that's the way
31:26it should be. It never should have
31:28happened. That was an anomaly that
31:30unfortunately may happen again with a
31:32booming bus cycle. But the lithium price
31:35today, everybody complains about how low
31:37it is. It's still
31:39higher than most of my career. Most of
31:42my career, the price of lithium
31:44chemicals that would go into a battery
31:47were less than $6,000 a ton. Right now,
31:49they're 10,000 ton. It's just everybody
31:52has this high water mark from the bubble
31:54of
31:562022. Now is actually the time to be
31:58buying lithium stocks because they've
32:00been so beaten down. Avalor, I think in
32:03the last two years, is down over 70%.
32:06The biggest lithium player in the
32:08world. Most of the Aussie stocks have
32:11been battered. And anything else, you
32:14have to take a long-term view. And the
32:17people that complain the loudest are the
32:19guys who got in late and got burned. And
32:21that's the way it always and don't have
32:24the patience to hang on. But it's greed
32:27kills. And every lithium stock I
32:32have is still green because I bought at
32:36the right
32:37time. I've lost literally millions of
32:40dollars on
32:41paper, but my investments are still
32:45positive because I bought at the right
32:47time. And now's the time to buy again in
32:50my opinion. I don't give investing
32:52advice on my podcast and I don't give it
32:54here. I just say when I do. I was
32:56curious about personal branding you
32:59have. I had dinner with a junior
33:01colleague yesterday. I was saying the
33:02way the AI is coming or already here and
33:06the future of it. AI would be able to do
33:08everything but authenticity will be key
33:11right AI can produce the best LinkedIn
33:13photo that's not your photo right. So
33:16how do you link the influx of social
33:20media content that's happening or will
33:22happen because of AI and people like
33:25yourself with an authentic voice with a
33:28long journey and the depth of experience
33:32coming to the social media space. How do
33:34you see all these thing working together
33:38in a world where anything and everything
33:41can be produced synthetically without
33:42actually doing anything? I think that's
33:46one of the
33:47biggest difficulties that we face. My
33:50older daughter writes books. My younger
33:53daughter produced music videos and films
33:56and written scripts that have been sold
33:57to major
33:59studios. This is a major problem for
34:02them as they go through their career
34:04because they're just really getting
34:05started. They're both in their young
34:0730s.
34:09For
34:10me, I don't care
34:14because I have a core audience. I'm
34:18pretty well convinced that what I do is
34:22too small to attract too much
34:25AI. And I think right now I spend a fair
34:30amount of time just testing AI and
34:32asking it questions and it's still not
34:35very good in what I do.
34:39It still gives a lot of wrong
34:41answers, but I see stuff online all the
34:45time that I know is fake. And the
34:48problem is
34:49that my granddaughter's 9 months old and
34:53she is going to grow up in a world where
34:55it's like currency. How do you put the
34:57proof of the currency so the
34:59counterfeits can't duplicate it? I don't
35:01have an answer to that. I'm not enough
35:03of an expert in that field. But for my
35:07personal brand, I'm not worried. I've
35:10had copycats. I've had people clone my
35:13Twitter
35:14account, many many times. And what
35:19ultimately happens is the first thing
35:21they do is block me so I can't see what
35:23they do. But immediately people say, "We
35:26know that wasn't you." And they report
35:28it to Twitter or X and they take it down
35:31or whatever.
35:34And that's a small thing, but it's a
35:37real concern and I think it's going to
35:39be interesting how it's managed because
35:40I think we may get to the point where
35:42you can't believe anything on social
35:43media. I think that's what I was joking
35:46that in not too distant future all deals
35:49has to be signed face to face though the
35:52air travel will increase because people
35:54like to hear the voice, see the voice,
35:56shake the hand and that's what I always
35:58loved about Asia. Even if I can go back
36:00to the 90s and I had customers who were
36:03buying literally millions of dollars of
36:05lithium from me that said I only need to
36:07see you once a year when we negotiate
36:10the contract. You don't need to come and
36:12see me. And then I moved to Japan and
36:15it's a hightouch culture. South America
36:17is a hightouch culture that people want
36:18to see your face. They want to have
36:20dinner with you and they don't want it
36:21to be a 45minute dinner. They want it to
36:24be a three-hour dinner. They want to
36:25know about you. They want to know about
36:27your family. And that's what I loved
36:29about Asia. It was really like family.
36:32The most people I ever hired was when I
36:34was living in China. My commitment to
36:37them was that it wasn't going to be like
36:38an American company. It was going to be
36:41like a
36:42family. And hopefully not a
36:45dysfunctional family. I
36:48used other countries that the company I
36:51work for operated in and say that's the
36:53M, not the American.
36:56Yeah. Because the things that trust can
37:01solve a a dozen of lawyers on both sides
37:04can't. Let me give you an example for
37:08when Tesla had the Model S and they were
37:14projecting
37:16demand. Panasonic was their big battery
37:19supplier. the Japanese trading company
37:22that was
37:24supplying not just lithium but other
37:27battery metals and other things for the
37:29battery to
37:32Panasonic came to me with a huge number
37:35at the time for lithium and said I need
37:37this much and I said that's 65% of our
37:41capacity and if you think I'm going to
37:43accept a purchase
37:46order that doesn't have take or paying
37:50it, you are out of your mind because
37:52people like me get fired for doing
37:54stupid commercial deals. And so I not
37:58only had a large premium to the market
38:00price because I was the only qualified
38:02supplier, I had a
38:05taker in the pricing part of that
38:10agreement, it said I was going to adjust
38:15price quarterly.
38:18And in the
38:20absence of agreement, they could turn me
38:22down if I said it's going up 5% this
38:24quarter. There wasn't an index. There
38:27weren't pricing models. There wasn't a
38:29forward
38:30market. It was price is what I say it
38:34is. And if you don't agree, you can not
38:39buy with a notice
38:42period. But it was all done on trust.
38:46And they literally signed that
38:48agreement because I'd been doing
38:51business with them for so long. What I
38:53told them was I will never enforce this.
38:56If I can move the product elsewhere,
38:59you're not going to the taker was going
39:01to be based on basically they were going
39:03to have to ensure my loss profit. It
39:06wasn't going to be I'm going to hold the
39:08hammer over your head.
39:11I could not believe they signed that
39:14agreement because it was so one-sided
39:16based on
39:17trust. And then the company I work for
39:20got a new
39:22CEO. He came to Asia and he talked to
39:27one of my customers and they
39:30said, "We don't buy from the name of the
39:34company. We buy from Joseph."
39:37And I got called in and told I'd done a
39:41terrible job
39:44because the customers were loyal to me
39:47and not to the
39:48company. And I said, "What you don't
39:50understand about Asia is to them I am
39:53the
39:54company. It's the
39:57relationship. You're just a guy who
39:59comes through once a year, shakes a few
40:01hands, and
40:02goes, I'm the
40:04consistency."
40:06And that was the beginning of the end
40:08for me at that company because I had
40:11engendered
40:13loyalty to myself which to me was what
40:17you did in Asia. I represented the
40:20company and it was probably the best
40:24example of the cultural divide
40:26between east and
40:28west that I could point out. I was never
40:32trying to sell myself. I was never
40:33trying to get personal gain. I was
40:35trying to engender trust but the trust
40:38was personal.
40:40Yes. This is a very interesting point
40:42that you make. Isn't that where world is
40:46headed now because of AI? Because that
40:48high-tech high touch no that Japan
40:51brought into the table maybe this is the
40:54time again right people with the sea of
40:57content you are looking for the faces
40:59like you go to a football suddenly you
41:02saw even your distant neighbor who never
41:04speak that is the one person you know in
41:06this sea of strangers this personal
41:10touch has to be uh a big thing in coming
41:14days because we have too many touches I
41:17think we're making the same point in a
41:19different way. But I do think at the end
41:22of the day, business always has a
41:24personal element and if it doesn't, it's
41:26a very boring world.
41:30So tell me a little bit about your book.
41:32I'm quite excited. So when it's coming,
41:34what are you talking about? My younger
41:35daughter is in production. So I'm
41:38basically telling her she's got to
41:39produce the book, which means she needs
41:41to ride herd on me. I had started this a
41:44couple of years ago and then got busy
41:47and then
41:49decided at the beginning of the year
41:51that I was going to make this a
41:53commitment to get done by the end of the
41:56year. I was writing
41:59today and honestly for
42:02me this book is a personal book. If
42:06other people want to come along for the
42:08ride that's great but I'm not writing
42:10the book to make money. I'm writing a
42:12book to tell a story and it's my story
42:15in the lithium
42:16industry because I came up at the right
42:19time and because I was literally at the
42:22beginning as lithium ion was growing. I
42:25know the guy who started CL. I know the
42:28people that started BYD. I know the guys
42:31who started the Chinese lithium
42:33companies. I've spoken at their events.
42:36I have young people say, "I'd like to do
42:38what you do." But I said, "You can't,
42:40cuz we can't start over. You can have a
42:42great career in this industry, but I I
42:45was at the right place at the right
42:46time. It wasn't because I was smart.
42:48It's just because sometimes
42:50circumstances work out to your benefit."
42:52I like the definition of being lucky.
42:55When preparedness meets an opportunity,
42:57you're prepared. Opportunity came.
43:00That's it.
43:02Yeah. I had to rely on people much
43:05smarter than myself throughout my whole
43:07career. But that's a skill, too. It's a
43:10skill to know what you don't know. And
43:13there's a lot I don't know. So, I had a
43:16lot of opportunity to practice that
43:17skill. Thank you so much. Do you want to
43:21highlight anything before we close off?
43:23I really learned a lot. No, if your
43:24listeners are interested in the lithium
43:26industry, I have a podcast. It's called
43:28the Global Lithium Podcast. You can get
43:30it on Apple, Spotify,
43:33Google, all the major platforms. It's
43:37not just lithium, but it's batteries and
43:40everything that's in that ecosystem if
43:43you want to listen. And if you're on X,
43:45I'm global lithium and I publish on
43:48LinkedIn and my website's
43:50globaliththium.net.
43:51Thank you so much for your time. Thank
43:54you. We hope you enjoy this episode of
43:58Energyreneurs. To continue listening to
44:00this conversation, please visit us at
44:04Energy Prreneurs. Thank you. See you
44:06next time.

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