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The launch of the Circularity Gap Report 2026 — Transcript

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0:00Very good. Hello everyone and welcome to
0:02the online launch of the global
0:04circularity gap report 2026. My name is
0:07Hilda Fine and I'm the CEO here at
0:09Circle Economy.
0:11>> And I'm Alvar the lead of the security
0:13gap report at Herk Economy. It's great
0:16to have all of you with us today.
0:18Welcome.
0:19>> Yes, thank you so much for joining us
0:21and we have a really exciting session uh
0:23lined up for you. Uh to start, Alvo will
0:26walk you through the key insights from
0:28this year's report. Uh this will take
0:30around 15 minutes. After that, we'll
0:32move into a 30 minute panel discussion
0:34with a fantastic group of experts uh
0:37where we'll explore different
0:39perspectives on the findings and what
0:40they mean in practice. We thank the
0:43panelists for joining us today and we
0:45very much look forward to hearing from
0:46them later in the session. And last but
0:49definitely not least, we'll close with a
0:5110-minute Q&A session where we'll
0:53address some of your your questions. So
0:55from the audience, your questions and
0:57reflections. But before we begin, just a
1:00few quick practical notes. The chat is
1:03currently open. Feel free to introduce
1:06yourself and let us know where you're
1:07joining us from. Uh we've seen in the
1:10registrations that we have people
1:11joining us from across the globe and it
1:13would be really nice to see for for
1:15everyone to see who's there in the chat.
1:17So feel free to introduce yourself in
1:19the chat function. After the
1:21presentation, we'll close the chat and
1:23we'll switch to the Q&A function. That's
1:25where you will be able to submit your
1:27questions. We'll be monitoring those and
1:30we'll select a number of questions to
1:32address during the final part of the
1:33session. And just to note, only
1:36questions submitted through the Q&A
1:38function will be considered, not the
1:40questions in the chat. Only the
1:42questions in the Q&A function. So if you
1:44have any questions on the report to
1:46Alvaro or to the panelists, make sure to
1:49put them in the Q&A. So with that, let's
1:52get started.
1:54But before we dive into this year's
1:56findings, let me take a moment to
1:58introduce to you who we are and how we
2:01got here. Because you might all know the
2:03circularity gap report or the CGR, but
2:06not all of you might know the
2:07organization behind it, circle economy.
2:10Uh we are a nonprofit organization uh
2:13that was founded in 2011 and we're based
2:16here in Amsterdam. We work with partners
2:18ac around the world to help accelerate
2:21the transition to a circular economy by
2:23providing the knowledge, the strategies
2:25and tools needed to turn ambition into
2:28action. Our work brings together
2:30research, data analysis, advisory
2:32services and capacity building programs.
2:35And we focus on four key areas: finance,
2:39cities, employment, and value chains.
2:42You may know us from the circularity gap
2:44reports, but it's important to say that
2:46we see this type of analysis and work
2:49not as an end point, but as an important
2:51part of a much broader effort to support
2:54change at the system level. And now
2:57let's go to today because today we're
2:59launching the ninth edition of the
3:01global circularity gap report. The
3:04journey with the global circularity gap
3:06report started back in 2018 with a
3:08simple but ambitious question. How do we
3:12measure the state of circularity at the
3:14global level? At the time in 2018, the
3:18circular economy was gaining momentum,
3:20but there was no clear way to track
3:22progress. No shared benchmark. So, we
3:26set out to change that. Guided by a
3:28single principle. What we don't measure,
3:31we don't manage. We introduced the first
3:34global circularity metric in 2018.
3:38And since then, each edition of the
3:40report has built on that foundation,
3:42tracking how materials flow through the
3:44global economy and how effectively they
3:47are turned into societal value. And over
3:50the past editions, one message has
3:53become increasingly clear. The
3:55circularity gap is growing. It is not
3:58shrinking. And this brings us to this
4:01year. Because while measuring material
4:03flows remains essential, it doesn't tell
4:06the full story. It tells us what is
4:08happening but not always what it means
4:11economically. And that's exactly where
4:14this year's report takes a next step.
4:17And before I hand over to Alvaro to
4:19reveal the value gap, I would like to
4:21take a moment to thank Deoid for
4:23supporting this edition of the report
4:25for the fourth consecutive year. It's
4:28this kind of generous continued support
4:30and partnership that makes this work
4:33possible. And with that, over to you.
4:37>> Thank you very much, Hilda.
4:41As Hilda just mentioned, over the past
4:44eight editions of the circularity gap
4:46report, we focused on measuring
4:48circularity through material flows. So
4:51we look at how resources move through
4:52the global economy. What are the set of
4:55processes that drive this and what kind
4:57of impacts they create? That remains
5:02essential. It is a core part of our
5:04work. But this year we take a different
5:07step. We shift the lens. This year we
5:11introduce a new economic perspective to
5:14the report and with it also a new
5:17concept, the value gap. This is also the
5:20first year of a new methodology, one
5:22that complements our existing work
5:25rather than replacing it. But why focus
5:28on value? You might be asking
5:30yourselves. Well, in short, because
5:32value is what ultimately drives
5:34decisions. Values signals different
5:38things. It signals function. It signals
5:40scarcity signals complexity and also
5:44purpose. And in that sense, value can
5:46also be understood as the thread that
5:50connects resources, economies and
5:53societies.
5:54And if we want to un understand how the
5:58current economy operates the way it
6:00does, we need to look at how value is
6:02being created and how it is being lost.
6:05So, so with that in mind, let's now take
6:08a closer look at the scale of value loss
6:11in the global economy.
6:18So, what did we find? The scale of value
6:20loss in the global e economy is very
6:24significant. Using data from 2021, we
6:28estimate the value gap at 25.4 trillion
6:32e to put that uh humongous figure into
6:37perspective. That's larger than the
6:39entire US economy, the largest economy
6:43in the world measured by GDP. Another
6:46way to look at it is uh that the value
6:51gap re represents nearly onethird of
6:55global GDP. This is the the scale of um
7:00the figure.
7:03Or if we put it even more simply,
7:06another way to look at the the the value
7:09gap is that for every three euros of
7:11value that that we create, we are losing
7:15one euro.
7:17Let that sink in.
7:20Because what this really tells us is
7:23that the linear economy is not just
7:25environmentally unsustainable.
7:28It's also deeply inefficient in economic
7:31terms. We are systematically losing
7:34value at scale.
7:40But if we now take a a
7:44step back to really understand what the
7:47value gap is, we also first need to look
7:49at how we currently measure value and
7:52how this links to measuring economic
7:55success. Today, economic performance is
7:58largely assessed through GDP growth. It
8:01is the world's main benchmark. Widely
8:04used as a proxy for measuring prosperity
8:07and progress. But GDP only tells a part
8:10of the story. It measures economic
8:13activity. So what is produced and
8:15exchange in the market, but it does not
8:18capture what happens behind the scenes
8:21uh so to speak. It is a flow metric that
8:25overlooks key things like resource
8:28depletion and environmental damage. It
8:31doesn't account for waste generation or
8:33asset under utilization and
8:35deterioration and it doesn't really tell
8:38us whether value is being retained or
8:40lost.
8:42So what what we see today is a system
8:45where GDP can grow while at the same
8:48time value is actually being eroded. In
8:52other words, we are growing the economy
8:55but not necessarily creating more value.
9:00Why is this? It is mainly because GDP
9:03tends to favor financial value creation
9:06often at the expense of other forms of
9:08value such as natural and social value.
9:10If we want a more complete picture of
9:12economic performance, we need to look at
9:15both sides, value creation and value
9:17loss.
9:19And that's exactly what the value gap
9:21aims to do. uh it complements G GDP by
9:26putting value creation into perspective
9:29by capturing and monetizing the
9:32avoidable hidden costs linked to the
9:34linear economy which today largely
9:38remain unaccounted for.
9:41So what does that include ex exactly
9:44what's inside this uh 25.4 trillion uh
9:48figure? Let's let's take a closer look
9:51now at what sins behind the value gap.
9:58So to to answer this question, how is
10:02value being lost? Uh we broke down the
10:06value gap into five key pathways that
10:09you can see on screen now. So each of
10:11these pathways represents a different
10:14way in which value erodess across the e
10:17economy. Uh from early stage production
10:20losses to inefficiencies in how we use
10:24and manage longlift assets.
10:27Together the value loss pathways give us
10:30a more complete picture of how value is
10:32lost and importantly how it can also be
10:36retained. Let me brief briefly walk you
10:39through each one of them. First
10:41processing losses. These h o occur
10:45during production stages when raw
10:49materials are wasted due to in
10:52inefficiencies, defects or low yields
10:55during their transformation into
10:57finished or semi-finished products.
11:01So what what this tells us is that
11:03really value is lost in many cases even
11:06before products reach the market. And
11:09this is the despite the fact that these
11:13materials already embody large amounts
11:15of energy, labor and capital.
11:19Second, energy losses. So across the
11:23energy system, over half of primary
11:26energy is lost before it delivers any
11:28useful service. whether through heat
11:32dissipation or conversion in
11:34efficiencies mostly by inefficient
11:38fossil fuels. In other words, half of
11:41all energy consumed is wasted.
11:44Third, food losses and waste. This
11:47refers to food that is produced grown
11:50for human consumption but never actually
11:53eaten. Globally around onethird of all
11:56food produced is lost or or wasted.
11:59That's not just a tremendous amount of
12:02loss of food. It's also a loss of all
12:04the resources that went into producing
12:07it. The fourth pathway is end of life
12:10losses. So when products and assets
12:14reach their end of life, much of their
12:16value isn't actually fully exploited
12:18yet. This is often because we default to
12:22turning them into waste or to low value
12:25recovery options. But in many cases,
12:28they still have significant value that
12:30could be preserved through lifetime
12:32extension strategies such as reuse,
12:35repair or remanufacturing.
12:38And finally, consumption of fixed
12:40capital or depreciation as it's known uh
12:44in economic terms. Um this refers to the
12:49gradual loss of value in long live
12:52assets. Think of think of things like
12:55buildings, infrastructure, machinery,
12:58vehicles,
12:59the stock of things.
13:02Over time, these assets deteriorate,
13:05become obsolute or are damaged leading
13:08to a steady erosion of the value they
13:11embolic.
13:13And this is important because they don't
13:15only have value, they also enable value
13:18creation throughout the economy. So
13:21across these five pathways we see a
13:24consistent pattern. Value is being lost
13:26in different ways across the entire
13:29economy often in ways that are
13:31avoidable. And this is a key important
13:35um point that I would like to stress.
13:38The figures that we are presenting that
13:40we are sharing with you today focus on
13:42avoidable losses. So those that
13:45circularity can help reduce or prevent.
13:50Which brings us to the next uh step. If
13:53we understand now or we got an overview
13:56of how value is lost, we also need to un
13:59understand why it is lost and where it
14:03it happens.
14:09To do that we look at the value gap
14:11through three complimentary lenses. The
14:14first is the pathways which we just
14:16covered. Second, the mechanisms, the
14:20underlying reasons why these losses
14:22occur. And third, the value chain
14:24stages. So where along the life cycle
14:26these losses are concentrated.
14:30Let's begin with the why. So like I've
14:33I've said while pathways describe how
14:36vales lost mechanism mechanisms explain
14:40what's driving those losses. And we have
14:43structured the why across the an
14:46analysis in four key mechanisms. The
14:49first one is the mismanagement of
14:51products and materials. This is about
14:54inefficiencies in how we handle and
14:56process materials and design products
14:59leading to unnecessary waste across
15:02supply chains. This alone accounts for
15:05roughly a quarter of total value loss.
15:09The second mechanism is the is premature
15:13obsolescence. So here products and
15:15assets are discarded earlier than
15:17technically necessary not because they
15:20no longer work or are unable to provide
15:23function but because of things like
15:26market dynamics
15:29regulations or user behavior.
15:32Third, the physical deterioration of
15:35longlift assets. So of over time assets
15:40such as buildings, infrastructure and
15:43machinery lose value through wear and
15:46tear but also through suboptimal use and
15:49maintenance. In many cases it is
15:51important to to highlight this the
15:55premature
15:56replacements of of these assets is
15:59incentivized.
16:01And fourth, unpriced environmental and
16:05social cost.
16:08This is a bit of the elephant in the
16:11room. It's also known as a
16:15negative externalities in economics.
16:18Most of you will probably have heard
16:20about this term. So these are the
16:22impacts that don't show up in market
16:24prices. So you can think of things like
16:27pollution, resource depletion and health
16:31impacts. When we account for for them,
16:34they represent the single largest share
16:37of value loss around 30%.
16:41And this is despite our our
16:44internalization of externalities being
16:46relatively partial and you can find all
16:48of the the details about that in the
16:51report.
16:52Despite that they they still account for
16:55the single largest share of value loss
16:57at around 30%.
16:59So if we take together uh this mechanism
17:04show that value loss is not random. It
17:06is driven by how our systems are
17:08designed, how incentives are structured
17:12and how decisions are made.
17:15If we now shift the the focus and look
17:18at the where these losses um are
17:21occurring along the value chain, what we
17:24see is that they are spread across the
17:26entire system. Upstream losses are
17:29driven largely by energy inefficiencies
17:32and processing losses. midstream or in
17:35the use phase. Erh value is not is lost
17:38through energy inefficiency and the
17:41gradual and premature deterioration of
17:43assets. And downstream the biggest
17:46losses come from premature disposal. So
17:48when products and materials as I've been
17:52saying are not used to their full
17:54functional potential but turn into waste
17:57in a premature way.
18:00Um so the key takeaway is this value
18:06loss is not concentrated in one place.
18:09It is systemic. It happens across the
18:12entire life cycle driven by a
18:14combination of uh technical
18:17inefficiencies,
18:19behavioral patterns and economic signals
18:22that don't reflect true costs.
18:26And that also hints and tells us
18:29something important. Closing the value
18:31gap will require action
18:35at multiple levels. Not just better
18:38technologies, but also better
18:40incentives, better design and better
18:43decision making.
18:45So what does this mean in practice? what
18:48what can be done to close the the value
18:51gap.
18:54In the
18:56report, we outline a set of priority
18:58actions for different stakeholders to
19:00help close the value gap. These are
19:02businesses, financial actors, and policy
19:05makers. And you can see this overview
19:07right now on the screen. But let me
19:10briefly leave you with a few key
19:13messages. The first one is that we need
19:15to measure value loss alongside value
19:19creation.
19:21Why? Because what we measure shapes what
19:24we prioritize and currently we are
19:28overlooking value loss. Second, this
19:32circular economy is not is not just an
19:34environmental agenda. It is a system
19:37level economic opportunity to retain and
19:40recover value through smarter resource
19:43management.
19:45And if designed well, it can also lead
19:47to better social outcomes. And third,
19:51this transition cannot happen in
19:53isolation. It requires co coordination.
19:58Coordination across value chains, across
20:00actors and across geographies.
20:03At its core, the value gap shows us
20:07something quite fundamental. This is not
20:10a story of marginal inefficiencies. It
20:13is a story of system design. Value loss
20:16is not accidental
20:18just like linearity is not accidental.
20:22It is built into how the economy
20:24operates through waste over generation,
20:28resource depletion and the underuse of
20:31assets which also means that incremental
20:34improvements won't be in enough. Closing
20:37the value gap requires system level
20:40change and design is the key here. The
20:45good news is that much of this value
20:47loss is technically avoidable as I've
20:50been saying and as the figure show and
20:53with the right incentives and approaches
20:55herity can retain and
20:59recover a significant share of it.
21:03But this also requires a broader shift
21:05in how we think about value and how we
21:07understand value and not just as
21:10efficiency or output but also in terms
21:13of outcomes like well-being and
21:15long-term prosperity.
21:17So with that I'd like to hand it back to
21:20you Hild to take us into the panel
21:24discussion.
21:25>> Thank you Avo. I think that was a very
21:28powerful overview uh and it really
21:31challenges how we look at economic
21:33performance today because what this
21:36shows is that the circular economy is
21:38not just about doing less harm. It is
21:40about addressing a fundamental
21:42inefficiency in how our economy works.
21:45Uh and that brings us exactly to the
21:47purpose of the next part of this
21:49session. uh because if the value gap as
21:51you said is systemic then closing it
21:55requires action from across the system
21:58from policy from businesses from finance
22:02and from research. So I'm very pleased
22:04to be joined today by a fantastic panel
22:06of experts who will help us unpack what
22:09these findings mean in practice, where
22:11the biggest opportunities lie, what
22:13barriers still exist, uh and what it
22:16will take to move from insight into
22:17action. Uh let me briefly take a moment
22:20to introduce each of our three panelists
22:22to you. Uh so joining us today is Arnold
22:25Tucker. He is a professor of industrial
22:28ecology at the Institute of
22:29Environmental Sciences at Leiden
22:31University. He also works for TNO, the
22:34Netherlands organization for applied
22:36science scientific research. And Arnold
22:38currently coordinates a string of major
22:40research programs across Europe in the
22:43fields of circular economy and resource
22:45efficiency. Welcome Arnold. I think you
22:47will see appear on the screen soon. Then
22:50our second panelist joining us today is
22:52Derte Evolds. Uh she leads the
22:54circularity practice at Deoid
22:57Netherlands. Uh she is part of the
22:59strategy and business design service
23:01line at Deoid Netherlands. Uh Drich has
23:04over 15 years of experience in strategy
23:06consulting. uh she has been supporting
23:08clients in the energy and resources
23:10industry through the material uh and
23:12energy transition with the focus on
23:15helping uh their clients move towards a
23:17circular economy. So welcome on the
23:19panel today I
23:22panelist uh is Arnold Beer. He's a
23:25senior environmental economist in the
23:27environment natural resources and blue
23:29economy global practice of the world
23:31bank um uh Europe and Central Asia
23:35region. Uh Arnold brings over 20 years
23:38of experience working primarily on the
23:40circular economy, climate finance and
23:42the energy transition. We're happy to
23:44have you on the panel today uh Arnold
23:46Be. Um so let me start with just uh an
23:51invitation to all three panelists uh to
23:54share what a one sentence and I will be
23:56strict on this try to summarize a one-s
24:00sentence main takeaway from this year's
24:02report and I would like to start with
24:04you deer what's your one sentence
24:06takeaway from the report
24:10me it was that actually the value loss
24:12of linear practices is even bigger than
24:15I anticipated up
24:18even bigger.
24:20>> Yeah.
24:22>> Um, thank you, Draer. Uh, Arnold, what
24:24was your main takeaway from the report?
24:27>> Yeah.
24:29>> No. Yeah, this is
24:30>> Oh, sorry. We have to be pretty careful,
24:32Arnold. Sorry.
24:33>> This was going to happen.
24:34>> This was going to happen. And then
24:36Arnold.
24:37>> Okay, great. Um uh thank you and good
24:40afternoon to everybody and
24:42congratulations to circular economy to
24:44um the ninth uh circular gap report.
24:47Really good work. I guess you want some
24:50kind of nonacademic answer to this
24:52question. And of course when I read the
24:53report it's obviously stunned by the
24:55large number 20 to 30 trillion. So my
24:58one sentence would be um think of the
25:00circularity gap report as a global
25:02budget review that reveals that we're
25:05throwing away onethird of the world's
25:07economic value every year and at the
25:09same time we wonder why we're broke.
25:12>> Yeah,
25:14>> that's good observation. Thank you so
25:16much Arnold. Now over to you Arnold.
25:18>> Okay, good. Thank you. Yeah, also
25:20congratulations for doing this. I think
25:23of course I was stunned by the number as
25:25well but in one sentence
25:28it is good that you try to put an
25:30economic value on this. I mean that is
25:32the language that business and policy
25:34makers understand and how crude it is.
25:37>> I mean I don't care as long as we put
25:39values on these kind of things and that
25:41is a really great achievement.
25:44>> Thank you so much. Uh before we dive
25:46into the next questions to the panel, I
25:48just want to rem remind the audience of
25:51the fact that uh they are welcome to
25:53leave any questions that they want to
25:55ask to um Alvo or to the panelists to
25:59leave the questions in the Q&A. So
26:02that's that's just a reminder for the
26:03audience that any questions or
26:05reflections that you might have, you're
26:07welcome to share them with you uh with
26:09us. Um then Arnold, I would like to stay
26:12with you if that's okay. Um I have the
26:14first question for you. Uh traditional
26:16indicators like GDP capture overall
26:19economic output but often miss losses
26:22and inefficiencies that circularity
26:24could address. How can the value gap
26:27lens bridge this gap?
26:30>> Yeah, I think that there are two things.
26:32What what struck me is that you actually
26:34include externalities for carbon
26:37emissions for waste that literally you
26:40know creates and I think that is an
26:42important thing to make that feasible
26:44that is not part of the normal GDP and
26:47at the same time we have a problem with
26:49that because because it's an externality
26:51actors in the economy don't feel that
26:53loss so I think it's about 10 15
26:55trillion that you calculated we have
26:57that kind of losses well then we have
27:00all the things that are inefficiency in
27:03the economy.
27:05Uh yeah and and and I think the only
27:08thing that you have to you really have
27:10to do make them visible
27:12>> and if I I uh looked at the report what
27:16if I if there is a bit of critique often
27:19to capture back these kind of like
27:22inefficiencies
27:23you need to make a certain investment
27:25and I think that is where the balance at
27:27this moment has to be found many
27:30companies probably don't see what they
27:32can win and they can calculate quite
27:35well what they have to invest and maybe
27:37the decision making is also done at
27:40different places. So the people that
27:42have to invest don't reap the benefits
27:44and then you get the things that we now
27:46have you know excluding the
27:48externalities you have a 15%
27:50inefficiency in the economy and I think
27:52yeah that is probably even natural to
27:54have that and and we really have to work
27:56to make it clear that that okay the
28:00gains of their need an investment here
28:05and and and if we can really bridge that
28:07gap then I think you will go into the
28:09right direction. I think but keep keep
28:12on making it visible and how big it is.
28:14That is the most important thing.
28:17>> That's definitely the ambition Arnold.
28:18Good to hear. Uh maybe very quick uh
28:21follow-up uh question. Do you do you see
28:23any chance that GDP could one day be
28:26overshadowed by such an economic metric
28:28that better captures also the value
28:30loss?
28:31>> Yeah, that is a very good question. I
28:32mean if you go back to GDP I have a
28:34colleague at L University who wrote a
28:37whole book on that and he found
28:39something very interesting. And he said
28:41if you look how GDP was developed it
28:43didn't exist in the 1930s but we had the
28:45brethren moods conference and all the
28:47people came together there and in the
28:49wake of the second world war they agreed
28:52on this system and all the statistical
28:54offices in all the world they define GDP
28:57in one way and if you have beyond GDP
29:00indicators well you come with a value
29:03gap there are a lot of people with you
29:05know other type of welfare indicators so
29:09it is a very scattered landscape and
29:11that is actually at this moment a
29:13weakness. So what has to be done is that
29:14we institutionalize
29:17a new metric in the same way as GDP is
29:20institutionalized
29:22and actually that is an institutional
29:23transition and and and so we have to
29:26look at it like that and and yeah that
29:29is a process and I'm pretty sure at some
29:33point it will happen but if it will be
29:35your indicator or slightly different one
29:37I don't know but if you have to go in uh
29:40in that direction that is I think
29:42obvious for for many people.
29:44>> Yeah. Yeah. Full fully agree with you.
29:46And also maybe just from our end, we uh
29:50we would rather ensure that there is
29:52such a beyond GDP indicator than being
29:55very stubborn about saying it has to be
29:57our way of measuring things. I I fully
29:59agree with you Arnold. There are other
30:00organizations initiatives that might
30:02have very relevant uh complimentary
30:06um indicators or ways to measure it. And
30:08I think it's really important to also
30:09align and work together uh in that
30:11regard. Um I would like to move on to
30:14Derer. So Derer you engage with
30:16businesses from a wide range of of
30:18industries uh through your work at
30:20Deote. Where do you see the biggest
30:22opportunities for businesses to capture
30:24this value that is currently being lost?
30:28>> Yeah. Well for me if you look at the
30:30numbers of the report um of course the
30:33potential value loss at the end of life
30:35really jumps out with 10 trillion euro a
30:38year. And I think this is also where a
30:41lot of opportunities lie for businesses
30:43which have not been uh part of the
30:46focus. Um I think production loss,
30:49energy loss and um food loss I think a
30:53lot of companies see this and they
30:55directly see it in their numbers already
30:57but end of life it's usually out of
30:59their sight out of their uh business. So
31:02this is where I think for the value
31:04chain lies a lot of opportunities and
31:06it's either to preserve the uh product
31:09value or the material value. So if you
31:12look at the product value first if you
31:15can expand the product duration so the
31:18lifetime and uh with this retain and
31:21increase that product value uh there are
31:23there are several business models you
31:25can actually uh apply to do this. So as
31:28a service models is I think one of the
31:30most uh common ones um where you shift
31:34from linear sales to uh continuous
31:37revenue and and services. Um this also
31:40increases the incentives for
31:41organization to actually make the
31:43products more durable and repairable uh
31:45by reducing the total cost of ownership
31:47but increasing the total value. Of
31:50course this works best for high value
31:52products. If you have more lower value
31:55products, looking at uh maintaining the
31:58and preserving the material value
32:00becomes more important. So do you can
32:02can you set up takeback schemes um to uh
32:06to to get it to get it back and then uh
32:09recycling or potentially uh um um parts
32:14harvesting to make sure that you get
32:16those materials back in the loop. Um
32:18there are a lot of requirements to
32:20organizing the latter part well. Um and
32:22for me two things stand out there. So
32:25one is it also to make it easy and
32:26rewarding for the customer to
32:28participate in these takeback schemes
32:30and secondly ensure that there is that
32:32feedback loop from the return product.
32:34So you can feed it back to design to
32:36keep increasing the uh value reservation
32:40of preservation. Um so design for
32:43recycling modular design etc. So you
32:46increase the parts of the materials that
32:48are recovered.
32:49>> Yeah. And uh just very quickly, what is
32:53holding businesses back? Because I mean
32:55if if it is all about economic value,
32:58then this this almost sounds like a
32:59no-brainer. I think uh also what you
33:02shared sounds like a very clear pathway.
33:04So in your opinion, what are the main
33:05things that are holding businesses back?
33:08>> I think this relates especially to what
33:09Arnold just mentioned. uh the person who
33:12makes the investments or need to make
33:14the investment are not per se the ones
33:15who are reaping the benefits immediately
33:18and you really need to work together
33:19across the value chain. I think that is
33:22a that is the first one. Um and secondly
33:26it is of course a shift from the
33:28business as usual. We have optimized the
33:30linear economy
33:32uh customers organizations they have
33:34been doing things in a linear way for a
33:37long time. they have invested in these
33:39processes and incorporating circular
33:41practices might require new capabilities
33:45uh both on the producer side on the
33:47customer side and really working
33:48together acro across the value chain. So
33:52on paper
33:55it sounds potentially easy. Uh in in
33:58practice there's a whole bunch of people
33:59you need to just collaborate with and
34:01organize it with. And then the question
34:03uh again uh who is getting the benefits
34:07from uh these investments.
34:11>> Yes. And who's providing the financial
34:13flows maybe? So I would like to make a
34:15bridge to you uh Arno. uh because
34:17shifting financial flows towards models
34:20that retain value rather than destroy it
34:22is a key challenge uh in a transition. I
34:25think also as as the previous speakers
34:26have just uh emphasized too um how can
34:29we redirect capital from value
34:31destructive to value retentive uh
34:34activities?
34:37>> Yes, thank you. Well, to move the
34:39needle, the World Bank has developed a
34:41we call it the four I framework. four
34:44eyes meaning um institutions,
34:47incentives, information and investment.
34:51So uh the first eye institutions it
34:54really talks about um political
34:56leadership ideally on the highest level
34:58of government. um a whole of economy
35:00approach not just um from environment
35:04ministries but really involving economic
35:06and finance ministries the heavy weights
35:08if you want given the role of fiscal
35:10instruments industrial policy investment
35:12planning and so on. So this is essential
35:14to keep um all these ministries involved
35:17and also policy coherence is very
35:19important especially from a world bank
35:22development bank perspective. Um
35:24international cooperation and trade
35:26policies are essential uh to keep in
35:28mind also to avoid a leakage to linear
35:31production havens uh but also to support
35:33partner countries in the transition.
35:36Uh the second eye is incentives. Um
35:39obviously today's markets still favor
35:41linear models mainly because primary
35:43models uh primary raw materials are
35:45still very cheap and externalities are
35:48underpriced. So we need economic and
35:51fiscal incentives to promote circular
35:54markets including taxes on primary
35:56resources on pollution shifting the tax
35:58burden from labor to materials and
36:01phasing out environmentally harmful
36:03subsidies. Um information is the third
36:07eye. Um and you're working a lot on
36:09closing the data gap. Uh better data is
36:12so essential because it lowers risk, it
36:14enables innovation and supports both
36:17policym and investment decisions. Um and
36:21this requires not just monitoring and
36:24metrics uh but re really also product
36:28information tools like material
36:29passports labeling so that consumers
36:32know which products to choose, repairers
36:36know how to fix them, recyclers know how
36:39to safely recover materials and
36:40businesses can track materials across
36:43the whole supply chain. And finally,
36:45investments. Um the IFC um branch of the
36:50World Bank um has recently launched a
36:52circular economy investment tracker and
36:55that shows that the private sector
36:56invested around $200 billion between
37:002018 and 2024 in just three sectors on
37:03circular economy. So that's electronics
37:05and appliances, packages and textiles.
37:08Um but of course more capital is needed
37:11but this capital will not flow without
37:13reforming those policies that actually
37:16continue to bias towards the linear
37:18model.
37:19>> Yeah.
37:20>> So it's the four eyes um
37:24that are really important in the policy
37:26framework and the mixture of these
37:27policies will help to to turn the deal.
37:30Maybe just to mention in relation to the
37:32last eye on investments uh we've also
37:34done a special edition of the
37:36circularity gap report uh on finance
37:38that we launched last year where I think
37:40we came to very similar conclusions. Uh
37:43Arno I would like to stay with you if I
37:45may because what we have seen also here
37:47at circle economy is that the circular
37:49economy has risen in prominence with the
37:52agenda uh of on the agenda of
37:54multilateral organizations
37:56such as also the world bank. uh what is
37:59the role of multi-development banks in
38:01driving circularity and helping close
38:03the value gap?
38:05>> Yes. Well, MDBs can obviously play a
38:07critical role in supporting governments
38:10implement this kind type of policy
38:11framework uh mainly through two types of
38:15tools. So one is the advisory support uh
38:19focusing on um advocacy you know um on
38:22promoting the importance of circularity
38:25on raising awareness um and on
38:28highlighting the available support and
38:29opportunities of the circular economy
38:31but also in capacity building you know
38:34on all levels of government um but also
38:37uh for businesses and of course in
38:39policy development um sort of promoting
38:41policies and regulations that support
38:43circularity. But apart from the advisory
38:46support, there's also obviously the
38:48financial support. Um and financing
38:50support can can go to all the uh uh
38:53through the value chain from circular
38:55design and production to circular use to
38:58uh circular value recovery and so on.
39:00And there's a host of tools that
39:02multilateral development banks can um
39:04can use including sovereign loans,
39:07grants, uh development policy financing
39:10is very important. green bonds, more
39:12innovative instruments, blended finance
39:15and so on. But again, it's the mix of
39:17tools that is important. Um and um
39:21basically to summarize, I mean MDPs
39:23don't just fund projects, but they
39:25really shape policy frameworks. They
39:28build institutional capacity and they
39:30also mobilize private capital and again
39:33the policy mix is what matters.
39:35>> Yeah, thank you so much Arnold. Um I
39:38would like to move to you uh Dirtu. uh
39:41earlier you also mentioned like um the
39:43importance of course for businesses for
39:45private sector um to be able to to
39:48capture this this value now being lost
39:50and and you referred to the strategies
39:52like to how to preserve product value
39:54and material value. Uh but what I find
39:57interesting is you work a lot with these
39:59businesses directly. So you let's say
40:01you know them inside out. Um so coming
40:04back to the practical realities of the
40:05private sector, what internal changes
40:08are needed for businesses to be able to
40:10capture value that is now being lost.
40:13>> Yeah. Yeah. And um I'd like to also come
40:16back to Arno what you were saying. You
40:18mentioned the the transparency product
40:20passports what's in the materials and I
40:22think that is one of the challenges
40:25might not just be internal but the
40:28compli the supply chains that we created
40:30are very complex with so many suppliers
40:33that without understanding what exactly
40:35is in your product uh and need to
40:38potentially go back to I don't know tier
40:4010 or whatever supplier that's going to
40:42be that's difficult I think that is one
40:45aspect which can prevent internal
40:48changes because companies don't know
40:49actually where some parts of the
40:51products are coming from. Um but also of
40:54course with any large change uh there
40:57are multiple things that need to go hand
40:59in hand. So you need to have a a a
41:02different business strategy, business
41:03model, the culture needs to be there
41:06especially if you're doing something
41:07new. It requires a more of a learning
41:10organization than a very efficient
41:12organization which is uh focused on on
41:14doing things how they've been doing that
41:16for a long time. Um and um but for me
41:20the most important thing is okay just
41:23get started. Uh there are always good
41:25ideas at organization. Um uh think about
41:28the current product that you have. How
41:30can you change the business model? How
41:31can you change the service to your
41:33clients? But keep in mind um the uh the
41:37willingness of of customers to join and
41:40where can you make changes in your in
41:42your uh um products. Um we work with
41:45companies to uh we call model pilot and
41:48and scale circular solutions where you
41:50start with modeling your solution with a
41:52minimal viable or some colleagues say a
41:55minimal lovable product. Actually quite
41:57like that as well. um you you pilot this
42:00with with customers and then make sure
42:03that you have this feedback loop to
42:05improve. Um for instance um there was a
42:08company and they sell refurbished
42:10equipments so they get their own uh
42:13equipment back. they invested quite a
42:14lot in the takeback scheme, but the
42:16sales crew, they actually don't really
42:19sell those refurbished um products
42:22because they are incentivized by making
42:25as much uh revenue as possible because
42:27that's tied to their bonus. And then
42:30they say, well, the refurbished ones
42:31have less revenue, but they are as good.
42:33So, think about okay, what are you
42:35measuring? So, the KPIs and what are the
42:37the the process you have? So the in the
42:40incentivizations of your sales uh people
42:43to make sure that they also want to sell
42:45this to customers because a lot of
42:47customers are actually willing to but
42:49they just need to be told. So that
42:50transparency is is very important. Um
42:54and uh I think another thing which is
42:56important while you are piloting already
42:59think about the road map to scale. What
43:01is the capabilities that are needed both
43:04um in the short and in the long term and
43:06don't forget the economic side. Do you
43:08need to make very large investments? Um,
43:12okay. Can you spread that out over time?
43:14Um, I think most of the uh companies out
43:17there are not not willing to invest a
43:19lot already while they don't know if
43:21there's um uh you know if the business
43:24case is going to work out. And we hope
43:26with this report it will also show and
43:28also the resilience in the supply chain
43:30that it can help to to bridge that um
43:34business um um the business gap the
43:37business case gap. Um
43:39>> yeah so multiple elements uh but I would
43:43always urge just get started there
43:44always uh uh employees in your
43:46organization who have great ideas make
43:49sure you can harvest that.
43:51>> Yeah I think that's a great and
43:53actionable recommendation. the return.
43:56Um Arnold, I have a final question for
43:58you. Because a value gap metric is a new
44:01approach and it's also the first attempt
44:03to quantify the economic losses in the
44:06linear economy. Uh where does this
44:09methodology still need refinement
44:11according to you?
44:12>> Yeah, I think thank you for the
44:14question. I think I alluded already it a
44:16little bit. I mean usually you need to
44:18invest something to make something
44:22circular and in many places in your
44:23report you are kind of like yeah we
44:25didn't take that into account. So that
44:27is at least one thing. Yeah, I think D
44:31you made very clear that there are
44:32sometimes reasons why companies don't
44:34invest because in the end you know
44:35transaction cost go up other things go
44:37up and we all know that uh if you look
44:40at business models and uh yeah that that
44:42is the I would say the main refinement
44:45uh that that I would suggest basically
44:48and yeah and I think for the rest I mean
44:51uh the first iteration we had quite a
44:53discussion on certain things but I think
44:56now you really see like okay ways that
44:59is that all of if the eB don't have to
45:00waste you don't have to manage them of
45:02course you save the cost that is all
45:04great and of course if you have uh let's
45:07say uh yeah waste that is not well
45:10treated I mean then of course you have
45:12externalities and there are all kind of
45:14estimates for that so I think that part
45:15is already quite good there's more
45:18literally the transition cost what what
45:20does it take to make the transition and
45:22you have tangible and intangible
45:25hindrances
45:27>> uh because because I I think we
45:29underestimate maybe why the system works
45:32as it works at the moment. You know that
45:34people are not stupid. They they keep in
45:36their habits because it works for them
45:38and doing something new is often a bit
45:40difficult and we have to understand that
45:42much better than just yeah saying like
45:45look there's a lot of money to be made
45:47well you know try to understand exactly
45:50where it is what effort you have to do
45:52and then make that effort as easy as
45:54possible. I think that was the step that
45:56we have to do have to make at the
45:58moment. And then things that they heard
46:00like yeah the usual things I mean lower
46:03taxes on income and make taxes on
46:05resources higher and a lot of these
46:07other things they they are so useful but
46:10yeah
46:11>> yeah we agree. Can I add one um one
46:14remark to where I think that the of
46:16course what we didn't take into account
46:17in the report and those are the rebound
46:19effects
46:21>> um which can be huge and I think we all
46:24know the the Jeffans paradox and you
46:26know the more economic or the the
46:29cheaper products get or less energy they
46:31use the more that we actually uh are are
46:34purchasing or bringing more equipment
46:37into our home. So this is a difficult
46:40one. We didn't include that. Um I think
46:42whoever is able to predict the rebound
46:44effect is going to be have a very very
46:47great in terms of modeling that. But um
46:50that is for me always a great unknown.
46:53>> Yeah.
46:54>> Uh can I take one minute to give an
46:56example of one of these?
47:00>> Lefonatumi if he's listening then uh he
47:03really deserves credit. He had in one of
47:04the nature family journals he looked at
47:07uh let's say secondhand phones and of
47:10course we tried to think we refurbish
47:12this thing and then okay I replace a new
47:15one. He found out that is not going to
47:17happen because if I have the opportunity
47:19to sell my phone quicker and easier I
47:21probably use it shorter myself. The new
47:25user will not use it for the usual three
47:28or four years but maybe two years. And
47:30of course you have a new market because
47:32all of a sudden these mobile phones uh
47:35yeah become uh let's say uh affordable
47:38for people who did not. So you already
47:41had two rebounds a bigger market.
47:43>> Yeah that was the g paradox and the
47:46other thing is that lifetime extension
47:47wasn't as good as uh as as you would
47:50expect. Yeah. And I think with taxation
47:53you can do a lot about these things but
47:55uh and at the same time I would say
47:57let's not make it too complicated. Let's
47:59just bang the drum with this message.
48:01Let's focus on the hindrances of making
48:04the transition and let's get that in
48:06order and then I think rebound effects
48:08in the end you can you can control if
48:10you uh do that with good governance.
48:12Yeah.
48:13>> Well, thank you so much to the
48:15panelists. Uh I will hand it over to AO
48:18who might have found some interesting
48:20questions in the Q&A that he himself or
48:23the panelist might want to answer. So
48:25over to you Avo.
48:27>> Thank you very much. Thank you very much
48:29for everyone that has joined us and that
48:31has dropped their questions in the Q&A
48:35function. I also see the chat is quite
48:37busy with a lot of messages even some
48:39discussions going on. Uh I think we we
48:43welcome all of those interactions.
48:46Uh I think um there's a couple of
48:48questions from the Q&A uh function uh
48:51that um stood out I think and they I
48:55think I will just put them forward to
48:57the panel and maybe whoever feels better
49:01or feels more comfortable answering them
49:04can can take them.
49:06>> Yes. And I would like to ask the panel
49:08to keep the answers short so we can
49:10address as many questions as possible.
49:13Consider it a challenge.
49:15Okay,
49:16>> great. So, the first one is the value
49:18gap is dramatically high, which probably
49:21causes skepticism in economic leaders.
49:24How can we convince them that the gap is
49:26truly so extreme?
49:29I guess this this points at kind of the
49:31magnitude of the challenge and how can
49:34we avoid kind of decision makers
49:36becoming a bit paralyzed by the the
49:39scale of it.
49:41>> I would focus that the opportunity is
49:43huge.
49:45It's yes we did a lot of modulation a
49:47lot of assumptions I think we were in
49:50some parts very conservative I just want
49:52to focus the the opportunity is huge and
49:54if and if we are 5 trillion off the
49:56opportunity still is huge
49:58>> yes
50:00>> my answer will be if I may uh half of
50:02that is externalities we know that they
50:05are huge from climate and all the things
50:07you add and then you have another 15% of
50:10your GDP where you're not efficient I
50:13think any organization and 15%
50:15inefficiencies. I mean that's another
50:17way to make it plausible.
50:19>> Yeah.
50:20>> No.
50:20>> Yeah.
50:21>> From my point of view, um I I don't
50:23think it's about the exact number. I
50:24mean, nobody can give the exact uh
50:26number, but it's it's about bringing
50:27this to the table and starting the
50:29debate about circular economy being an
50:31economic issue and not um you know with
50:34environmental benefits if you want, but
50:35it's not merely an environmental issue,
50:37but it's really about saving money.
50:41>> Agree. I completely agree and I think
50:43this also echoes the conversation we're
50:45having about the methodology and so on
50:47and how this is the first time and I'm
50:51sure that it will be it will evolve and
50:54we will refine it over time but I think
50:56it's more about the the the message that
50:59the figures bring rather than the
51:00exactitude of the figures.
51:03Uh thank you everyone for your answers.
51:06Maybe um there's also one point around
51:10uh circular economy business models
51:12which has been also a bit of a topic
51:14that we've been discussing. So this uh
51:17person says I would like to understand
51:19the experts opinion on how the financial
51:21as well as operational risk management
51:24perspective could boost the
51:25implementation of circular economy
51:27business models. I think we we kind of
51:29touched a bit about this some some of
51:31the challenges from a financial
51:34management point of view, from an
51:35operational management point of view. I
51:38don't know if any of you maybe want to
51:40pick this one up.
51:41>> Yeah, I I can do that.
51:44>> But I think D for sure has something to
51:47say on that as well. I wrote a paper on
51:49that already 20 years and that's my best
51:51paper. It doesn't always say a lot. But
51:53I think what you people misunderstand is
51:56that if I sell you a mobile phone, I
51:58throw it over the fence and they get
52:00€500 or something like that. If I play
52:03someone like, "Oh, you can rent it for
52:05me. You depend on Arnold Tucker that I
52:07behave quite well with this thing."
52:09>> Yeah. So if I misbehave then the owner
52:14that is then supplier
52:16has value and they can try to sue me
52:19which we all know how expensive uh
52:21lawyers are. Yeah. So you see already
52:23that the risk profile that you have for
52:26selling products is totally different as
52:28the risk profile as keeping things in in
52:31a circular ownership. You get more
52:33likely more transaction cost. That's the
52:35lawyers. You don't get your money
52:37directly. You don't get your €500 to
52:39actually have to wait until I have paid
52:41my €25 a month or something like that.
52:43So that that's just a few examples that
52:46you see why actually managing a product
52:48service business model or a circular
52:49business model for a company is much
52:52more complicated than a linear business
52:55model and there are situations where it
52:57works perfectly because the value is so
52:59much in the product you want to keep it
53:00back and then people are going to think
53:03about how can you minimize these kind of
53:05risk that you spoke about but there are
53:07all situations where they say well
53:09forget about it I don't do it you know
53:11it is too complex ction.
53:14>> I think you really need to think of the
53:15product that you have and the increased
53:19convenience that you bring to customers.
53:21If you just do this from a financing
53:24perspective, I don't probably is not
53:26going to work. Um, but building the
53:28relationship with your customers and
53:29then increasing the loyalty I think also
53:32is one of the benefits for organizations
53:35and understanding
53:37how can I uh keep my products in use
53:40longer. So that is an incentivization
53:42but again it's working across the value
53:44chain. Um financing of course in as a
53:48service model is indeed different. Um
53:50but it can help you in your operational
53:52risk as well especially in value chains
53:54where uh who are more volatile in terms
53:57of pricing or you're leaning on specific
54:00materials which are difficult to get. uh
54:03although
54:04I al also thought that with co and
54:07everything that happened people would be
54:08looking more for uh value chain
54:11resilience perhaps nowaday again it's
54:13it's more of a topic but it kind of goes
54:15in waves and I would love to see that uh
54:17wave becoming a more of an upward trend
54:22>> maybe from a banking sector point of
54:24view and I'll be very brief mindful of
54:26the time um there are many aspects but I
54:28just focus on one and that's the
54:30capacity of commercial banks to actually
54:31finance in circular business models and
54:33in many countries they do not have the
54:35capacity. So it's really about kind of
54:38um uh you know building that capacity
54:40and informing banks to build the
54:42relationship with the companies and to
54:44understand the circular business models
54:46and the advantages and then to find the
54:49right instruments to finance them. Mhm.
54:53>> You have a very very short question with
54:55a short answer still or
54:57>> let me see
54:58>> are they all too complex to give a short
55:01answer to
55:02>> I think maybe there is one interesting
55:04question I don't know maybe Arnold from
55:05you I think this you might be better
55:07placed but really like very very short
55:09answer it is around is there any reason
55:11why water loss is not explicitly
55:14mentioned or considered. Oh, I don't
55:17know.
55:18You look like the chair of a PSV
55:21committee. Also, short short question,
55:23you know, that kind
55:24>> I don't know. I think I didn't write a
55:27report. I mean, I'm pretty sure that you
55:28can include the externalities of water
55:31scarcity. I mean, there are water
55:33scarcity methods that we we use in the
55:35inut output work that I do with a lot of
55:37friends. We include that and I'm pretty
55:39sure we can put a price on it. But
55:42>> I have to ask almost you why you didn't
55:44do that. I think you did already you did
55:46already. No, no, but you did already a
55:47great job by having climate, by having
55:50the waste. You can expand it to other
55:51things. But
55:53>> yeah,
55:55>> that's the next version of the report I
55:57would say.
55:59>> Yeah, I think that's it. You start
56:01somewhere now like like with the
56:03circularity gap. I also had a lot of
56:05critics on the circularity gap itself,
56:07but it helps you know and and you
56:09understand start to understand
56:11>> Yeah. where it points at and and where
56:14you have to be careful using it.
56:17>> Yeah. Yeah. I think it's always the
56:18balance that we try to you want to make
56:20something that is easy to understand
56:22whilst doing the reality justice. I
56:25would like to thank the panelists for
56:27joining us today. Uh I think was really
56:29insightful and I definitely I think we
56:31could have continued for uh a long time
56:33but uh we need to keep an eye on time.
56:35Um uh so thank you so much for joining
56:38us today and we very much appreciate you
56:40as our critical collaborators and
56:43friends uh on this journey. Um so as we
56:46come to the end of today's session, I
56:47want to bring us back to one central
56:49idea. The circular economy is often
56:52discussed in terms of environmental
56:54benefits or resource security and these
56:58are certainly important. But what this
57:01year's report shows is something equally
57:04important. It is also a major e economic
57:08opportunity.
57:09A system where we are currently losing
57:11trillions in value is not an efficient
57:15system. It is also not sustainable. And
57:18closing that gap is not just about
57:20reducing harm. It is about unlocking
57:23value that is already embedded in our
57:26economy today. Looking ahead, we will
57:29continue building on this work. In fact,
57:32we will soon begin the process of
57:35recalculating the global circularity
57:37metric for next year's edition of the
57:39report. But we cannot do it alone.
57:42Circle Economy is an independent
57:44nonprofit organization and our work
57:47depends on collaboration and support
57:50from partners who share our ambition. So
57:52if you value this work and you would
57:54like to contribute uh to our work or to
57:57support our work going forward, please
57:59do reach out. We would be very glad to
58:02hear from you. Finally, thank you all
58:04for joining us today. Thank you to the
58:06panelists, to Alvo, to all the
58:08colleagues that have been uh helping us
58:10with this webinar. Uh we hope you uh the
58:12audience found this session valuable and
58:14insightful. And we of course encourage
58:17you to take these insights forward,
58:19share the report, circulate it with your
58:21networks, and help us continue the
58:23conversation on what a truly circular
58:26economy can deliver. Thank you again for
58:28joining and rest enjoy the rest of your
58:31day.
58:33>> Thank you all. Bye
58:34>> bye.

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