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The Largest Move in your lifetime‼️ — Transcript

by Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money · 9,053 words · 1,289 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Every once in a while, you are greeted
0:02with an absolutely shocking day in the
0:04market. A day that you remember for
0:07years or sometimes even decades to go in
0:09the future. And let me be very crystal
0:11clear. Today was one of those days. It
0:13was one of those days that bulls never
0:14saw coming. Bears never saw this coming.
0:17The moves were simply shocking. This is
0:19one of those days. If you make it
0:21through a day like this, give yourself a
0:23thumbs up here today because um these
0:25days are few and far between and uh
0:27these moves are pretty darn shocking.
0:28So, we'll talk about at the beginning of
0:30this video, I really want to talk about
0:31what's going on here, why this is
0:33happening, where do things go from here.
0:35Um, I want to talk about, you know, I've
0:37been in the market a long, long time. I
0:38want to talk about what I have seen in
0:40situations like this where you get
0:42massive sell-offs and what then occurs
0:45from there. So, we'll speak about all
0:46that at the beginning of this video. The
0:48VIX was up almost 70% today. 70%.
0:52There's only been a few times in my 18
0:55years of being in the stock market that
0:56I've seen the VIX up 70%. It's simply a
0:59shocking move and uh we'll talk about
1:02what this means essentially. We'll also
1:04talk about some of my stocks out there.
1:05Celsius uh reported earnings. I mean,
1:08you know, the crazy thing is we got this
1:09crash going on in a time period when we
1:11have earnings all coming out. So, it's
1:12just um a pretty crazy situation, right?
1:15Retail investors flee single stocks at
1:17the fastest pace since the 2020 crash.
1:21we'll speak about this. Uh I want to
1:22share my opinions and thoughts on why
1:24this is occurring. Since this is a
1:26reaction channel, I want to react to
1:27some Wall Streeters and their opinions
1:28on where this market's headed and what's
1:30going on here. Um so I think that'll be
1:32important. And then the thing I really
1:34want to get started with here today is I
1:36want to share a message I gave to my
1:38entire private stock group this morning.
1:40And I think this message really can be
1:42very helpful to everybody out there and
1:44kind of really understanding this game
1:45on a little little deeper level and not
1:47getting caught into traps in the future.
1:49Okay, so we got a lot to go through here
1:50today. Um, I hope you guys appreciate me
1:53trying to cover this all for you. And
1:54it's just busy times. It is just busy
1:56times. Um, all I need from you just
1:57smash that like button if you haven't
1:59already done so. Uh, and other than
2:02that, you can be subscribed here the
2:03channel, okay? Busy times, man. Just a
2:05lot going on. So, here's the message I
2:08gave my private stock group this
2:09morning. This is exactly what I said.
2:12Time periods like this are exactly why I
2:14always preach, don't f with margin. It
2:18can get extremely serious very fast.
2:21There are people in memory stocks and
2:23semiconductors that are getting margin
2:25called left and right. They're losing
2:27their entire portfolios. I have been
2:29there in 2015. It is absolutely awful
2:33feeling. You don't realize how dumb it
2:35all was until you finally get off margin
2:38completely. There is a big difference
2:40between losing gains on your stock,
2:42buying a stock and going down on it and
2:45getting margin called and forced to
2:48sell. The stress can be beyond any money
2:51related stress you have ever
2:52experienced. It's absolute hell and I
2:54mean that. Keep the game simple. More
2:57income than expenses. Put in the
2:59research work. Buy great companies at
3:01discounts. Focus long-term. Sell when
3:04overvalued or you have a better place to
3:06put the money. You will be shocked at
3:08what you can achieve over 10 to 20
3:11years. Many time periods when you're
3:13going through a, you know, we're with a
3:16cues down 15% plus. When you're in these
3:18sorts of time periods, people completely
3:21lose track of time. They get so caught
3:24up into whatever is going on in that
3:26short-term time period that they're
3:28they're not even thinking a year from
3:30now. They're not thinking 3 years from
3:31now. They're not thinking 5 years from
3:33now. They're not thinking 10 years from
3:34now. They're thinking about today,
3:36tomorrow, how much are stocks going to
3:38be down tomorrow. Are we going to bounce
3:39back? Are we going to have a V-shaped
3:41recovery and those sorts of things and
3:42they completely lose the plot? And they
3:44completely lose like what they can
3:46achieve over the next 10 to 20 years,
3:48right? Don't get caught up into that
3:49trap. Like, because I'm just telling
3:51you, that's not where the real money's
3:52at. The real money is really focusing
3:54long-term in this game. And you will be
3:56shocked at what you can achieve. Where
3:58people have gotten in trouble is you had
4:00some people out there that made some
4:01money money on some of these
4:03semiconductor stocks and it wasn't
4:05enough. So, they started to margin. So,
4:08they start to buy leverage plays. So,
4:09they start to play short-term options on
4:12these stocks, right? And now they're
4:14completely blowing up their portfolio.
4:17Not like, oh, I'm down 5% my portfolio
4:19today or down 8% my portfolio today or
4:21down 3%. No, no, no. They're blowing up
4:24their portfolios. They're down like 30%
4:26today, 40% today. We're not talking
4:29about what has already occurred in their
4:30portfolios. We're talking about today.
4:33And so, and it's not just retail
4:35investors. There's hedge funds in these
4:36sorts of situations that go go
4:38completely under and end up getting
4:40liquidated. And so, it can get very
4:42serious very fast. People don't take it
4:45serious until they really get slapped in
4:47the face. Until that, they, oh, it's no
4:50big deal. Like, it's going to come back,
4:52you know, when they're on margin. And
4:54then it just gets worse and worse and
4:55worse and they're like, "I'm not
4:56worried." And then it gets worse and
4:58then next thing you know they're like,
4:59"Crap, if this market even goes down
5:01another 2% getting margin called."
5:04That's how it happens, ladies and
5:05gentlemen. And and if you're wondering
5:07like how you get these sorts of
5:08sell-offs,
5:10fear comes in, margin calls come in,
5:13liquidations happen, forcelling happens,
5:16panic selling happens, and it all
5:18happens at the same exact time. Look at
5:20these moves. This was today. Okay, so
5:23SNXX that SanDisk 2X leverage there was
5:27down 43% today. MUU, this is a popular
5:30one. A lot of people like to play. It's
5:32a 2x leverage on MU stock. It was down
5:3534%
5:36today. Today SanDisk down 22%. A dosey
5:41do there. AMD AMD 17 12% here today. MU
5:46is down over 17%. This is like the AI
5:49trade watch list. I have this IN stock
5:52this is in that group as well 17%. Marll
5:54technology 16.5%. Bloom energy 16% down
5:58today. This Nebius or whatever is down
6:0015% here today. TSM down 10%. Avago down
6:0410%. Coreweave down 10%. Nvidia down 9%.
6:07SpaceX down 9%. G Vernova down 7%.
6:11Caterpillar down 6%. Caterpillar I swear
6:13Caterpillar wasn't Caterpillar stock
6:15like $1,000 plus like not that long ago
6:17like just a few months ago, wasn't it?
6:19And now it's 500. Like what a drop,
6:22right? In Caterpillar stock. Incredible,
6:24right? So this is a one-mon chart here,
6:27right? Look at the Q's. The Q's are now
6:29down 15% plus from their highs. Avalago
6:32down 23% over the past month. Nvidia is
6:35down 25%. Gio Vernova is down 26%. TSM's
6:39down 27%. SpaceX is down 29%.
6:42Caterpillar is down 36%. MU is down 38%.
6:45AMD is down about 39%. Bloom Energy is
6:48down 43%. Sandisk is down 52%. Coreweave
6:51is down 52%. This Nebius or whatever is
6:54down 52%. Marll's down 54%. IN's down
6:5957%. MU is down 65%.
7:03And this uh SanDisk 2X leverage is down
7:0580% ladies and gentlemen. 80%. Okay. So
7:12what what do I have to say about this?
7:15Well,
7:18situations like this can come out of
7:21nowhere, right? And it doesn't matter in
7:24the short term what your earnings are,
7:26right? Over the long term, earnings
7:29dictate the whole game. What's your
7:31earnings per share going to? What type
7:33of valuation should your company
7:34command? All the fundamentals we look
7:36into, right? But in the short term, it's
7:39irrelevant. It doesn't matter what
7:41Micron's going to earn this year or next
7:43year. Doesn't matter what AMD is g if if
7:46Wall Street is facing margin calls and
7:49getting liquidated and selling's
7:51breeding more selling.
7:53Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter.
7:55Nothing's going to save you in the short
7:57term. If if you know um some memory chip
8:01stocks trading at a forward P of four
8:04doesn't mean it can't go to three in the
8:05short term. It doesn't matter in the
8:07short term. In the short term,
8:10everything else matters. Who won an
8:12election? uh who's got to get liquidated
8:15who doesn't. These are all the things
8:16that that matter in the short term.
8:18What's the perspective at a particular
8:21time, right? MU had a pause
8:25uh a memory chip plant factory uh if I
8:28recall in Taiwan over like a labor
8:30dispute situation and people are running
8:32with that today and being like see it's
8:34all AI bubble like no one needs memory
8:36chips anymore and things like that. It's
8:38just people run whatever narrative they
8:39want to in the short term. It it doesn't
8:42matter. They're going to make up
8:43whatever narrative they want to make up
8:44in the short term. And so you got to
8:47understand like you you and I I say this
8:50all the time, you and I, we can't
8:51control where these stock prices go
8:53short term. We can't. If they want to
8:56send an AMD to $800
9:007 months from now, they'll send it to
9:02$800. They want to send it to 300 7
9:05months from now, they'll send it to 300.
9:07And there's nothing you and I can do
9:08about that. AMD will come out their
9:10earnings. They should be bangers, but
9:12there's nothing we can do to control the
9:14stock price in the short term. The stock
9:16price will be what the stock price is
9:17going to be in the short term. Like
9:19there's nothing. If they all decide to
9:21flip the narrative and they're like bye
9:23bye bye, they're going to buy it right
9:24up. If they want to keep putting this
9:26selling pressure on in the short term,
9:28you know, they'll keep putting it on.
9:30And so, um, something really important
9:32you got to understand about these
9:33selloffs. Okay. Um,
9:37a few things. one Q's down 15%. This is
9:41not unprecedented. This is nothing
9:43crazy. I've watched the Q's go down 20
9:45plus% countless times. And so we're not
9:48even at a 20% plus move yet. That
9:51doesn't mean we're going there, but I'm
9:52just like, we're not even there. And
9:54usually the Q's doesn't relent until you
9:56get to a 20% plus downside. So that's
9:58something to consider here, right? Um,
10:01you know, I watched in 2018, you know,
10:04and I was in the market and it hurt.
10:06like 2018 we went down the NASDAQ went
10:08down over 20% from you know kind of that
10:11October time frame to right around
10:13Christmas and in that December we were
10:15on pace for the worst stock market for
10:17December since the Great Depression it
10:19was it was in insane right so that
10:22that's one thing to to factor in here
10:25another thing to factor in here is
10:29it can always get worse right and I know
10:32that sounds scary it can always get
10:34worse you have to always be mentally
10:35preped prepared for even more damage.
10:38Right. Next thing to consider, this
10:40one's really, really important.
10:43A lot of times the stock market won't
10:46bottom
10:47until
10:50the leverage is really unwound and max
10:53pain is really felt and people really
10:56throw in the towel and they say, "I
10:58can't take it anymore." Until that
11:00happens, a lot of times you can't get a
11:02true bottom in these sorts of
11:04environments. So, you know, was today a
11:07bottom? It's possible. Um, you know,
11:09there could, you know, what if there's a
11:11flush tomorrow? That could be a bottom,
11:13right? And the shorts start, you know,
11:15uh, covering their shorts. Like, that's
11:16always a situation. But always prepare
11:19for it to get worse, right? Like, if the
11:22public account today, I don't know where
11:24the public account was at today. Um,
11:27let's say the public, it might have been
11:29$4.6 million today, right?
11:32I'm mentally prepared for the public
11:34count to go down 3.6 to 3.6 million.
11:37There's really nothing I'm not prepared
11:38for in the public. It could go down to 2
11:39million. It could lose over 50% of it.
11:41I'm I'm just like mentally prepared for
11:43anything, right? And if the public
11:46account wants to, you know, let's say we
11:48bottom tomorrow morning and market
11:50starts heading up from there and next
11:51thing you know, nine months from now,
11:53the public account 7 million, I'm
11:54prepared for that. I'm whatever. Throw
11:56it. But you can only get to that place
11:59if you got more income than expenses,
12:01right? So, you got your money, right?
12:02You're doing the research. You know,
12:03you're buying great companies that are
12:05going to be great companies for the next
12:065 10 years, right? And you're focusing
12:09on the long term. That's the that's the
12:12way you get to that sort of place. And
12:13you don't mess with margin or any of
12:16these leveraged things that people are
12:17messing with. Right now, uh, in terms of
12:20my particular stocks, obviously AMD got
12:23just hammered today. We know that
12:25Palunteers got hit hard. You know, when
12:27you're going to be in a riskoff
12:28situation, Palanteer is going to sell
12:30off. Same thing with SoFi. I always talk
12:32about SoFi, like that's the sort of
12:33stock that, you know, if the market's
12:35crashing, you got the NASDAQ going down
12:37five, six%. Like, there's just no way
12:38SoFi is going up in that environment.
12:40It's going down. Chinatown, right? Fubo,
12:42same exact situation. Shopify fits that
12:44category as well. Uh, now it's not even
12:46part of my portfolio. So, I don't know
12:47why that was there. Um, RH got hit, but
12:50not hit as hard as you might think. Uh,
12:52because a lot of money's rotating into
12:53some of the value plays, so keep that in
12:55mind. Uh, Cake got hit 4% today. For a
12:58high-f flyier like cake, that's not bad,
13:00right? Estee Lauder got hit 3.9%. Meta
13:03got hit 3.9% here today. Wind got hit
13:063.7%. ELF got hit a little bit, 3.3% on
13:10the back of their great earnings.
13:11Celsius was only down 2%. You know, if
13:13it wasn't for the market getting so
13:15hammered today, I think Celsius would
13:16have had a probably up 5 to 10% day. The
13:19earnings were solid. I graded them a
13:21B-grade. Revenue was better than I had
13:23anticipated. So, I was very happy with
13:24that. Cost of revenue was a problem. Um
13:26bottom line got shaped up because no
13:28termination expense this year. So
13:30Celsius was a solid earnings. It was a
13:32B-grade. Um I'm very optimistic on that
13:35company over the next several years.
13:37Right here what I hear here the way I'm
13:38talking over the next several years.
13:40Over the next 3 weeks, who knows where
13:41Celsius stock goes. I don't know and I
13:43don't care. It can go to 25 and go to
13:4530. It can go to 35. I don't care. You
13:48know, that's the sort of perspective you
13:49got to have as a long-term investor.
13:51Short-term fluctuations in great
13:52companies is just a buying opportunity,
13:54right? American Express. Would I would I
13:56rather buy American Express at $224,
13:58$324, or $424? Um, let's see. Uh, I
14:02think I'd rather buy it for $224, right?
14:05American Express down 2%, Nike down 2%.
14:08The a lot of these stocks were not
14:09getting hit that hard. It's specifically
14:11AI trade related, right? And why is it
14:16that the AI trade is getting hammered so
14:20hard? Well,
14:23the market is running to this conclusion
14:25that Democrats won so you know the AI
14:29trade's over and um you know you can't
14:32build data centers anymore or it's going
14:34to be so hard to and all these sorts of
14:36things, right? Such a ridiculous such a
14:40ridiculous thing. But this is what the
14:42market does. elections happen, the
14:45market freaks out and um then a couple
14:50weeks later it doesn't even care about
14:52it. It's like the market gets dementia.
14:54Like literally, that's how it is. My 18
14:56years being in this game. Like the
14:58market will freak out about something
15:00and a few weeks later it doesn't even
15:02care. It's unbelievable. The Rona crash
15:05was a perfect example of that. The Rona
15:07crash was a worldwide phenomenon.
15:09They're going to shut down the economy
15:11for 3 years. Who's going to even make it
15:13through that? Everybody's going to go
15:14bankrupt, right? And the I mean the
15:18market would just was just making
15:19shocking move after shocking move day
15:21after day after day for like a month and
15:22a half straight, right? Just plummet.
15:25Fastest stock market crash in history.
15:27Like S&P 500, I don't think ever went
15:29down, you know, 34% that fast ever. Like
15:32it made the great financial crisis look
15:34like a walk in the park in terms of how
15:37fast the market went down. Right. By the
15:40time you got to April 2020, it was like
15:43it didn't even care oh about Rona
15:46anymore. It was unbelievable. And here
15:49you are with a once in a hundred. Like
15:51this is way more severe than AI data
15:54centers and Democrats want. And I don't
15:56know if we're going to be able to build
15:57like Rona was so much more serious. That
16:00was the most serious thing that ever
16:02occurred in my 18 years of being in the
16:04stock market. And remember, I started in
16:05the great financial crisis. Rona was a
16:07lot scarier than the great financial
16:08crisis because at least businesses could
16:10still operate. When when Rona was at
16:12peak fear, Bill Aman was on TV crying.
16:15They're talking about closing the
16:16economy for 3 years, right? I mean,
16:19that's just crazy. And that was the
16:20scariest moment by far uh we ever seen
16:23in the stock market. You know, 2022 was
16:25a very hard hit, but that wasn't even
16:27nearly as scary as what happened in
16:282020, right? So, speaking about 2020,
16:32you have this happened here today.
16:33Retail investors flee single stocks at
16:35fastest pace since Rona. Retail
16:37investors abandoned their signature dip
16:39buying playbook on Thursday to dump
16:42individual stocks at the fastest pace
16:43since the depths of the March 2020 Rona
16:46crash according to Vanda Research. In
16:48Thursday's mid-after afternoon trade,
16:50the Dow was down, 1700 points, S&P 500
16:52down huge, NASDAQ down huge. That comes
16:54a day after major averages scored big
16:56wins on the back of midterm election
16:57results. Shortly before market close,
17:00retail net outflows from single stocks
17:03reached $338 million. Vanda noted the
17:06sell-off marks the third largest day of
17:09retail single stock liquidation on
17:11record, trailing only March 12th and
17:14March 17th, 2020.
17:18While retail traders typically support
17:20falling markets by buying dips, that
17:23appetite disappeared from individual
17:24equities, leaving the day's remaining
17:27purchases narrowly concentrated in
17:29leverage produ uh products. Wow. Wow.
17:34Incredible, right? So,
17:37retail selling, you know, why why I
17:41think there's a few reasons. I think
17:44well I don't think the data shows a lot
17:48of retail is heavily on margin. Heavily
17:51on margin. The thing I preach against
17:53all the time on the channel. Don't mess
17:55with margin. Don't mess with margin.
17:57Apparently people think they're smarter
17:58than everybody else and they can go on
18:00margin. Right? And they quickly learn
18:05it's not as easy as it seems. It's
18:07always a trap. It's always a trap. It's
18:10like think about how much more money you
18:12can make and meanwhile you have to pay
18:14interest on that as well and you're just
18:16getting obliterated. It's it's awful,
18:17man. It's always a trap and it just gets
18:19people again and again again. So, I
18:21believe why is retail actually selling?
18:25I believe they're actually selling
18:27because they're being forced to sell a
18:28lot of them. Now, are there some that
18:30are panicking and they're just scared?
18:32Sure. But I think a lot of the selling,
18:35my my hunch is as somebody's been
18:37playing this game for a long time, I
18:39think there's margin calls happening
18:40across the board in retail. I think
18:42they're getting devastated. And I think
18:45the ones, not only is it people that are
18:47actually getting margin called, so
18:48they're being forced, but it's people
18:50that are getting close to margin calls
18:53and they're panicking because they're
18:55like, "Oh my gosh, all it takes is a
18:56NASDAQ go down 2% more, Micron to go
18:59down this much more, Avago to go down
19:01this much more, AMD or Nvidia or
19:03whatever, right? All it takes is those
19:04stock to go down this much more and I'm
19:07going to get margin calls." So they're
19:08trying to sell before the margin calls
19:10as well, right? And the data shows it
19:13like margin is, you know, if you look at
19:15the latest data we had, margin was right
19:17around the highest we've ever seen in
19:19history.
19:20You don't get up to those sorts of
19:22numbers without, you know, people being
19:24insanely optimistic and they're usually
19:26slap. And this that's the thing about
19:28this that's the scariest thing is people
19:30have the fundamentals to back it.
19:32They're like, look at how much money all
19:33these companies are earning. So they
19:35feel safe. They feel like safe margining
19:37out on Nvidia. They feel safe margining
19:40out on AMD. They feel safe margining out
19:42on SanDisk or Micron or Skhinx or
19:45Samsung or whatever memory chip plays.
19:47They feel safe because they're like,
19:48"Look at how much money they're
19:50earning."
19:51Listen, that doesn't matter in the short
19:53term. That does not matter in the short
19:56term. They could be earning a trillion
19:58dollars in the short term. It doesn't
20:00matter. If the market's freaking out,
20:03the there's nothing that's going to save
20:05there's no amount of earnings that's
20:07going to save that stock in the short
20:08term. That's just a bottom line. You
20:10look at what happened in the 2020 crash.
20:12Didn't matter how much money you were
20:13making. Didn't matter if you were Apple
20:16or you were Microsoft or you were, I
20:19don't know, Ford or you were General
20:21Motors or you were Tesla or, you know,
20:24you're a home builder, your stock's
20:26going down. Chinatown. Doesn't matter
20:28how much money you make. If the market's
20:30freaked out, if you're getting margin
20:32calls left and right, if funds are
20:34blowing up,
20:36doesn't matter. You know, you make all
20:38the money in the world. It doesn't
20:40matter in the short term, man. And
20:41that's the thing people don't understand
20:43about corrections in the market and
20:45crashes in the market is if like it
20:49doesn't matter, man. Like like
20:50whatever's going on in the short term,
20:52that's what everybody's caught up into.
20:54Okay, let's react to some Wall Streeters
20:55and share some other perspective and
20:57opinions. Hope you guys are really
20:58enjoying this uh talk here today and
21:02hopefully you're learning a little
21:02something from
21:03>> technical aspect of this out of the way.
21:05All of your technician trader buddies
21:08will tell you, hey, you can't have that
21:10gap down there where the markets traded
21:13to overnight and then bounced back from.
21:16So we we kind of took that out which uh
21:18is not a bad thing. But really, we're
21:22going through the process of digesting.
21:24On the one hand, gridlock is great for
21:27stocks. We tend to see a rally following
21:30uh midterm elections.
21:32But then as people started to do a
21:34little homework, hey, there were over a
21:36dozen uh referendums on various state
21:39ballots about restricting data centers
21:42and just carving back uh what's been
21:46going on uh in an in AI buildout. And so
21:51some of this is, hey, this is going to
21:53be more complex and more expensive than
21:56we originally thought. Maybe we're
21:58putting some of our eggs in in one
22:01basket and we need to be a little more
22:03diversified and not so uh technology
22:06semiconductor AI heavy cuz we really
22:10have no clarity as to what's going to
22:12happen here.
22:13>> What the market does in these sorts of
22:14situations, it does what I call shoot
22:18first, ask questions later. And if
22:20there's worries
22:23and those worries have been stacked with
22:25more worries, which is what you have
22:26with the AI trade, right, you know,
22:30people are just going to run to the the
22:32the scariest conclusion right off the
22:34bat, right? And they're just going to
22:36assume all these different things and
22:38that's just going to breed more fear,
22:39more fear, more fear until you get to a
22:42point where there's so many people so
22:44fearful that you just run out of
22:46sellers, right? And so keep that in
22:48mind. And by the way, how do you get to
22:50a place like that? I mean, you could
22:51even get a place like that tomorrow. It
22:53doesn't mean this is going to happen,
22:54but I'm just like I I've seen it before
22:55where you get, you know, the market to
22:58close on the lows like we did today,
23:00right? And then the next morning you hit
23:02them with another big sell-off and uh
23:05that's the one that does them in because
23:07they're like boom, they're like it can't
23:09get worse than this. Like we got to come
23:11back and then you hit them with that big
23:13sell-off in the morning.
23:19the margin calls come in just one after
23:22another after another and then uh
23:24eventually as trading day goes on the
23:27shorts can come in and cover and then
23:28you actually get a bounce in the market
23:30at that point in time right so you know
23:33yeah
23:34>> okay so very little clarity a lot more
23:37uncertainty right now what does this
23:40mean for what the price action will be
23:42for the next couple of weeks because
23:44there's going to be a sense that for
23:47companies and um certainly for the
23:50companies that have a lot of projects
23:51that need to get moving that they have
23:54this small window in which to push
23:56things along before you know the new
23:58elected officials take office and really
24:00clamp down on things.
24:02>> So, let me just correct one small thing
24:04you said. It's not that there's more
24:06uncertainty. Anytime there's volatility,
24:09anytime there's uh disruptive change
24:12like uh a change election, uh the amount
24:16of uncertainty is the exact same amount
24:19there always is. We don't know what the
24:20hell the future's going to bring. What
24:22changes our ability to lie to ourselves
24:25about it. So we we see this every time
24:28there's a volatility spike and people
24:30trot out the uncertainty meme. No, it's
24:33the exact same amount of uncertainty. we
24:35we simply start acknowledging reality
24:38and and that tends to scare us. Uh the
24:41big issue that I'm tracking with this
24:43has been earnings are still growing at a
24:47very rapid pace. That that second uh Tom
24:51Kane would say that that that second uh
24:54delta, the rate of growth is starting to
24:56slow. And so 35 45% earnings growth is
25:01now looking more like 15 20 25%. Hey,
25:04that's still spectacular, but it's not
25:07as strong as it was assumed. And again,
25:10to put this in bigger context,
25:13uh 2026 is the fourth year of
25:16double-digit gains, and it follows three
25:19years of gains that were above 20%.
25:23Sometimes you just have to digest those
25:25gains and let revenue and earnings catch
25:28up to
25:29>> to to stock prices.
25:31>> Mhm. And in 2027, if for no other
25:33reason, the wall of large numbers,
25:34you're not going to get 20 to 30%
25:36earnings growth. I think the streets got
25:37pencled in kind of mid- teens. But some
25:40people say, "Hey, the market's already
25:41discounting that with the lower."
25:43>> Let's talk about some of these AI
25:44stocks. And um let's talk about prices
25:49that I think are really attractive buys.
25:51So, do I think AMD is a buy at 400? The
25:54answer is without question, yes. Yes.
25:58100%. That doesn't mean it can't go down
26:00on a 380 or 370 in the short term. Like
26:03the short term is going to be what the
26:04short term is going to be. But if you're
26:05looking at that from a longer term
26:06basis, I have that stock going to $1,000
26:09plus longterm. And so
26:12just run the math. It's a very
26:13attractive return profile, right? Uh
26:16stock like MU, listen, MU goes to 500s
26:19or below, I might have to start buying
26:21MU. I'm not a big fan of cyclical memory
26:23stocks, right? It's just not my cup of
26:25tea. But I do acknowledge that company's
26:28going to likely bring in somewhere
26:29between $350 billion and $450 billion in
26:33the next uh eight quarters, right? The
26:34next two years of net income. So yeah,
26:38you push this valuation in the five, you
26:40know, the stock price into the 500s or
26:41400s. Like I mean that's pretty darn
26:44compelling because even if then you
26:45assume earnings drop off a cliff after
26:48then let's say they drop 50%. Even then
26:50it still looks very attractively priced,
26:52right? Some of these other stocks I'm
26:54just not interested at all. Um, a lot of
26:57them I'm just not interested at all
26:58really regardless of price, right? Um, a
27:01stock like Nvidia, you know, the Nvidia
27:04is the biggest risk I think out there
27:06when it comes to the semi-trade from the
27:09perspective of it's like they have the
27:10most to lose, right? Like no one has
27:13more to lose than Nvidia. So if you have
27:15a contraction of spend on the
27:18semiconductors, you know, a year from
27:20now, two years from now, something like
27:22that, right? three years from now,
27:23Nvidia has the most to lose. They're the
27:25ones that have benefited the most, but
27:26when you benefit the most, you also have
27:28the most to lose. And so, you know, it
27:31it you know, it has less downside than I
27:34would say a lot of stocks on the list,
27:36but yeah, there's something to be
27:39considered there. A stock like cat, I
27:41mean, a stock like cat could get very
27:42attractive, especially if it falls under
27:44500. At the end of the day, the AI data
27:46centers are still going to be built
27:48whether you know there's some more
27:49regulations, you have to do this or you
27:50have to build it further out in land,
27:52blah blah blah, right? At the end of the
27:54day, like CAT's going to still be very
27:55needed for that. And then um obviously
27:57they're huge beneficiary of construction
27:59in general, right? So yeah, I mean
28:02that's just a very strong company
28:04overall. And so I look at a company like
28:07CAT and I'm like that's even pretty darn
28:09intriguing if it falls under 500. Right
28:12now, the other thing is like when do I
28:14get really excited about tech stocks? I
28:17mean, for me personally, I get really
28:20excited cuz I haven't really been buying
28:22a lot of tech stocks. If you look at my
28:24um you know, if you look at my buys over
28:26the past several months, not a lot of
28:28tech stocks in there like this, the
28:30recent ones been the Flicks, right? But
28:33there hasn't been a lot of tech stocks.
28:34It's been a lot of like, you know, what
28:36would be seen as boring stocks um for
28:39really a lot of this year, right?
28:41Whether it be E.L.F. earlier in the
28:42year, remember ELF went down to 49 bucks
28:44in the summer? Like that was a huge buy.
28:46I was talking about that like crazy.
28:47Celsius obviously been talking about
28:49that like crazy. Um Nike, like Estee
28:52Lauder, I'm trying to think of some of
28:54these other, you know, what are seen as
28:56like boring stocks. Um have been like a
28:58lot of my buys and where I see a lot of
29:00opportunity, the market, American
29:01Express. And so, uh tech hasn't really
29:04been very interesting to me this year.
29:06It just hasn't. But, you know, once you
29:09start getting a 20% down on the cues,
29:11which once again, we might not go there,
29:13but let's say we do, that's when you
29:14start to get like, hm, okay, there's
29:17some some tech opportunities out there,
29:19right? Um, so yeah,
29:22>> multiple today than it was a year ago.
29:24Does that make sense?
29:26>> I mean, here's the problem. Anytime you
29:29try and create a p prediction relying on
29:32multiple variables, right, multi
29:35multivariate analysis is complex. Uh and
29:38in physics, it's called the threebody
29:40problem. But here's what we have is
29:42which of those numbers uh earnings,
29:46earnings growth, and price, which of
29:48those numbers are are most inaccurate.
29:51If it turns out that we're still going
29:53to have earnings gains in the mid teens,
29:56yeah, the market has discounted that.
29:58The risk is maybe we have 10% earnings
30:01growth, maybe we have singledigit
30:03earnings growth. That's the concern. And
30:07you know the other issue and you you see
30:09it in consumer staples. So much money
30:13has been rotating into this sector over
30:16the past few years, including a lot of
30:19capex spending and a lot of borrowing.
30:21It kind of creates a situation where
30:25you're starving other sectors more or
30:28less uh in the economy of capex and
30:30maybe you start to see a general
30:32slowdown. It's not I I hate the analyses
30:35where people just say, "Hey, we're
30:37contracting if there's no AI capex."
30:40That's not how it works. money moves
30:42from, hey, we're going to put less money
30:44into financial tech and more into AI.
30:46Um, that's that's kind of what's going
30:49on. And if there was an AI, that capex
30:51would be spread across other sectors.
30:54Uh, people kind of ignore what's been
30:56happening in the energy sector, the the
30:59leading sector this year, and they're
31:00ignoring what's going on with consumer
31:02durables, which implies that some of
31:05this mad spending is going to start
31:07slowing down.
31:08>> Barry,
31:09>> oh, you know who's called that? It's,
31:11you know, I've said that a million
31:12times. It's just the math. These
31:14companies can't keep up in capex at
31:16insane rates. Like, you run out of
31:18money. Like, it's just the, you know,
31:20law of large numbers. And so, you know,
31:22a lot of these companies are going to
31:23bring up those capex numbers again big
31:25in 27. But it's just, you know, you
31:27start to run out of room to really um
31:31raise your capex in any substantial way
31:33past that because the numbers are just
31:35so staggering that you would have to
31:38literally start to take out hundreds of
31:40billions of dollars of debt because
31:42based upon what these companies are
31:43going to have for capex in 2027, like if
31:46they wanted to then up again huge in 28,
31:49you literally start having to take out
31:51hundreds of billions of dollars of debt.
31:53And there's just not that sort of
31:54capital out there to start doing that.
31:56Um, you know that so far they've done
31:58tens of billions. There's capital to do
32:01that. When you start taking talking
32:02about everybody starts to need hundreds
32:04of billion, there's not that sort of
32:05capital out there to just be like, oh
32:07yeah, you know, this company have $200
32:08billion, this company have 200 billion.
32:10No, no. And so, um, yeah, something to
32:13consider there. All right, next one up
32:15here.
32:15>> Alex, do you have out your shopping
32:17list? Is there anything in this rubble
32:19that you'd want to be picking up as the
32:20sell-off continues? Yeah, I think the AI
32:23cycle continues. This is a modest wave
32:26in the in in in what is a multi-year
32:30cycle. Uh I wouldn't get too overwhelmed
32:33by what's going on. I get excited by it.
32:35Does create some buying opportunities.
32:37It also, for what it's worth, flags some
32:39of these areas that we've been talking
32:41about for a year now that are really
32:42interesting outside of the AI trade. In
32:45your note, you wrote about orthogonal
32:46trade and that's as investors wanting
32:48their
32:48>> So, I think it's very important we look
32:50at how uneven the trade has been, the AI
32:54trade if we want to call it that over
32:55the past um several years, right? And
32:58so, the the best stock we can possibly
33:00look at to see how things have been over
33:02this time period is what it's Nvidia.
33:05So, Nvidia over the past year is down
33:077%, right? Uh but let's take a look at
33:10the year before. Look at the year before
33:13you had this massive drop in Nvidia from
33:15about 150 down to the '9s, right? So,
33:20right there, there was already
33:21assumption like the AI trades over,
33:23right? Stock falls to $90, you know, and
33:27then now it's double the price
33:28basically, right? It's 180, right? And
33:31at the peak it was even a lot more. So,
33:33let's go back another year here and see
33:35what happens. So, you obviously had a
33:37concerns around growth for Nvidia here.
33:40stock goes from about 95 down to 75. You
33:43had fears here. Uh stock goes from about
33:46135 to at the lows under $100, right?
33:50So, you've had a lot of waves of fear um
33:53throughout this particular time frame.
33:55Uh this is around where Nvidia bottomed,
33:58right? And it makes a massive move from
34:00about 13 bucks all the way up to 49.
34:03Then it has this big sell-off down to
34:0540, right? And so the thing you got to
34:09understand about this whole AI wave
34:10we've been going through is this is not
34:12the first selloff. This is one of many
34:14selloffs we've had with the AI related
34:16stuff
34:16>> diversification away from the AI trade.
34:19>> At the end of the day like you know the
34:22stock prices have gone up substantially,
34:24right? And so that's why like if you're
34:26looking at these stocks and you're like
34:28it's all done like we can't set new
34:31highs. Uh be careful with that
34:33assumption. Be careful.
34:34>> How are you seeing those? There's a
34:36there's a list. I mean, I have a
34:37shopping list. Uh I would start with
34:39healthcare. I talk about defense
34:41companies. I think banks are
34:42interesting. The smaller the better in
34:44the banking space. Um I'd look outside
34:46the US. You know, Korea and um uh some
34:50parts of Japan have AI trade. Taiwan.
34:53SanDisk is a crazy one. I was just
34:55looking at that stock. SanDisk was, you
34:57know, way over $2,000 just a few months
35:00ago. Like if I recall a few months ago,
35:03SanDisk was like $2,300 or something
35:06like that and is $800 bucks now. That's
35:09a wild one.
35:10>> Has AI trade, but Europe doesn't and a
35:13lot of the foreign markets don't. So
35:15you're getting some real diversification
35:17by continuing to own or adding to non-
35:20US names. It
35:21>> it so it is diversification because I'm
35:23just wondering how much of it is
35:24diversifying versus just being like
35:26decidedly the AI trade has gone too far.
35:29the sell-off is justified and I'm
35:31avoiding these names. Like, are you
35:32adding both those things or are you just
35:34veering away from AI related names?
35:36>> We're not veering away from AI related
35:38names. We're just getting ready. This
35:40this is not this is not the end. We've
35:42we've got much more to go.
35:44>> Does that imply there is an end though
35:46at some point?
35:46>> Oh, yeah. There will be an end.
35:47Definitely, there will be a bell ringing
35:49moment.
35:49>> So, if not this, if this isn't the
35:51thing, what are you looking out for to
35:52signify, okay, this is the one, this is
35:54the big one. I think it's a multi-arter
35:57cycle where the AI superstars don't uh
36:01meet expectations. They miss. They guide
36:04down. There's some event we'll know it
36:06when we see it kind of thing. Um but but
36:09in many of these quarters, the results
36:11have been peerless. You know, the
36:12earnings have been solid, the guidance
36:14has been good. Some of the big players
36:17have had a misstep in talking about
36:19their future capex plans, but most of
36:22the results have been fabulous. What
36:24about NeoClouds? We've been seeing them
36:26hammered week after week and you call
36:27them something like a leverage bet on AI
36:30lab creditworthiness or something like
36:32that. What is your view on them? And
36:33where do you think they will stand now
36:35after the midterm elections?
36:36>> Well, I think you you've got to take a
36:38reset on all of the cloud providers
36:41given the fact that the administration
36:44no longer uh has complete control over
36:46where we go. And even at the state
36:48level, there's been push back. You've
36:50talked about that a lot this morning. Um
36:53our view is that credit is still
36:55available. It's at a higher price. So
36:57now you have to redo your model to
36:59understand what the cost of that
37:01development will be, but it's going to
37:02happen. It will be slower. It will
37:05likely be better. Uh and and again, this
37:09is an interruption in a multi-year
37:11cycle.
37:12>> So a few things here. One, you're
37:14looking at the market. We're now in
37:15November, right? And it's like, hey,
37:17man, like November, December usually
37:19some of the best months. uh for the
37:22stock market. By the way, I'm recording
37:24in the bedroom because uh there's a
37:25bunch of drilling right by my office.
37:27There's still I got a bunch of projects
37:28going around my house right now. A lot
37:30of workers here. Um so, but you're
37:32looking and you're saying like we're in
37:35November, market's tanking. What the
37:37heck? Market usually goes up November,
37:38December. A couple things here. One,
37:42do not assume that because the market's
37:44going down right now that that means
37:46we're done for the the rest of the year
37:48and it's just down down Chinatown. Um
37:51don't just run to those conclusions like
37:53you can get several days of weakness
37:55followed by then like weeks of gains,
37:57right? Second thing is also at the same
38:00time don't assume that the market is
38:03just going to come bouncing back. I
38:04bring up this time period again and
38:06again again. You know, you're going to
38:07have to hear about at some point in this
38:08video. 2018 2018 like
38:13there was no Santa Claus rally that
38:15year. It was we got coal in our
38:16stockings and tech sold off the hardest.
38:19That's the thing I also remember about
38:20that 2018. It was brutal, man. Like you
38:24were getting tech stocks to go down 30,
38:2540, 50% left and right. And when I say
38:28tech stocks, I'm talking about the big
38:30dogs. I'm not talking about some of
38:31these like speculative stocks that are
38:34kind of the wave this this time around.
38:36I'm talking about companies like Apple.
38:38Talking about companies like Nvidia,
38:40like big dogs, the legit guys, right?
38:43Not the sketchy, you know, AI plays and
38:46those sorts of things, right? Um,
38:48something to keep in mind there, you
38:49know, with those NeoCloud companies,
38:53it it's funny. I think those ones
38:58in order to get those to bottom, you
38:59might need a lot of bankruptcy fear. If
39:02you get a lot of bankruptcy fear around
39:04those stocks, you might actually be able
39:05to get a nice clean bottom in them. Um,
39:09but yeah, people got to take it to the
39:10most extreme. And I don't know if
39:12they've quite taken it there yet.
39:13They're like there's a lot of fear, a
39:15lot of fear around those neo cloud
39:17companies, but you've got to really just
39:19like
39:21you got to get just like everybody think
39:24they're going bankrupt, right? And then
39:26the strongest ones will be able to make
39:28it through to the other side and those
39:31the strongest that will probably
39:32actually be where the most money's made.
39:34Like if there's some Neo cloud stock out
39:36there that you know that gets just
39:39obliterated in terms of their stock
39:41price with on bankruptcy fears and they
39:44make it through to the other side and
39:46they don't go bankrupt, that's probably
39:48actually where the most money will be
39:50made coming out of this mess. So, but
39:54that's a risky proposition because there
39:56could be some that actually do go
39:58bankrupt, right? And so then it's like
40:00that's not fun to to lose 100% of your
40:02capital or anything close to that.
40:04>> So people of the valley are calling
40:05their closest Democratic VC friends and
40:09trying to make up for several years of
40:11having gone the other way.
40:12>> But you know, I think the voters handed
40:14at least the big tech companies a gift
40:17by basically saying in the short term
40:20it's going to be harder to get new
40:21compute if you have it. It's way more
40:23valuable and your margins are going to
40:25be better. So you think this for for the
40:27tech industry or at least those who have
40:28it it's great
40:29>> but if you're a supplier for example
40:31>> tough yeah
40:32>> tough
40:32>> tough Nvidia tough obviously the
40:35Neocloud's tough um if sort of all your
40:38existing business is baked into
40:40>> oh by the way a huge mistake um some of
40:42these Wall Streeters are making on these
40:45semiconductor stocks and I don't think
40:46they really fully understand what's
40:48going on here or the tech and how it
40:51works. Uh and I don't want you guys to
40:53get caught in this trap. There's like
40:55almost like this disillusion of oh like
40:59these companies just need to spend for
41:01the next couple years and then they
41:02don't need to spend after that and so
41:04like there's the end right
41:07not the way this is going to work like
41:09because at the end of the day you have
41:11to keep you have to keep replacing your
41:14chips over time because they become
41:18sadly enough they kind of become
41:19obsolete over time which is not fun if
41:21you're Meta and you're Google and you're
41:22Amazon you're Microsoft and you're open
41:24AI and Anthropic and all these companies
41:25that spend on this, but at the end of
41:27the day, like you understand like an
41:30Nvidia chip 5 years from now is going to
41:32make the Nvidia chips that they're
41:33selling today look like a complete joke,
41:36right? Same thing with AMD. Um, the the
41:39need for memory continues to expand,
41:41right? So there's not like oh uh in and
41:44just understand like the amount of
41:46people using AI is going to go up
41:48exponentially over the years and then
41:50how much people are going to use AI is
41:52going to go up dramatically over the
41:53coming years, right? So that's like a
41:56long-term trend we're going to see.
41:58Additionally,
42:00businesses are still very early days in
42:03using AI and the need for businesses to
42:07use AI is going to go up exponentially
42:09over the next 10 plus years, right? And
42:12so like this isn't like, oh, we're just
42:14going to spend a bunch of money on capex
42:16for a few years and then we're done.
42:18It's not how it works. Now, you might be
42:20able to pull back your capex to a
42:21certain extent. You might be able to
42:23moderate your capex spend, those sorts
42:25of things. But it's not like all of a
42:26sudden you could be like, we're going
42:27from $300 billion of of, you know, let's
42:30say a company, they're going to do $300
42:33billion of capex, 200 billion of that,
42:35let's say, or $250 billion of that is
42:37just going to chip related stuff, right?
42:39It's not like you say, "Okay, we went
42:40from $250 billion spent on chips, then
42:43now we're just going to spend um I don't
42:45know, like now we're just going to spend
42:48like 50 billion." It's not going to work
42:50like that. Um because you're going to
42:52have to replace these semiconductors cuz
42:54they just become obsolete. They become
42:56energy inefficient. Like there's a whole
42:58host of reasons. And so, um,
43:02yeah, there there's, you know, a lot of
43:04doomsday talk around all the
43:05semiconductor place, but I don't think
43:06people understand how this is going to
43:08work over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years.
43:11Okay. So, just something to kind of keep
43:12in mind there. With that being said, are
43:14these companies going to be able to
43:15command the prices they're able to
43:17command now? My opinion, no. No. Pricing
43:22will come down. Margins will come down
43:23for these semiconductor stocks. um
43:26probably starting 2 years from now,
43:29maybe even 18 months from now. Um so
43:32pricing will have to adjust, margins
43:34will have to adjust, but that doesn't
43:35mean like oh all the semiconductor
43:37companies, no one's going to need to buy
43:39AMD chips and Nvidia chips 3 years from
43:41now or micro. No, it's not how this
43:43works, sweetheart. Okay, so uh yeah,
43:46there's a lot of people getting caught
43:47in that trap.
43:48>> Your valuation tough. I should say there
43:51are a lot of other asterisks that could
43:53be bad for the big tech companies in
43:54terms of other regulation and so forth.
43:56But on this question of data centers,
43:58which was the question, um, you know, I
44:02think if you've got compute, it's going
44:03to be a lot more valuable.
44:05>> Any implication for this expected IPO
44:07from Anthropic that's
44:08>> we'll see. I mean, Anthropic is a big
44:11buyer of compute. I think the numbers
44:13are good enough for it to get out where
44:15it wants to, but I think
44:17>> will this slow its growth or will it
44:18slow everybody's growth?
44:21>> We don't know is the honest answer. And
44:23I think there's so much scrutiny on
44:25margins as there should be. And so cost
44:28of compute going up for anthropic, not a
44:30good sign. Overall, especially relative
44:33to open AI, it's a pretty efficient
44:35business.
44:36>> The election's over. How long does it
44:38take before either party realizes it's
44:41just a losing trade to be against AI and
44:44even even we got to figure out a way to
44:46do data centers and you see what they're
44:48you know some of the companies are
44:49talking about now we'll pay for
44:50everything we'll make sure that you know
44:52we'll talk to communities we'll provide
44:54jobs but I mean it's gone no matter what
44:57and for an election you might say one
44:58thing okay but are we already there
45:01where they're like yeah we said that but
45:03uh we're willing to work with the
45:05industry
45:05>> I think the industry's is big enough now
45:07that there's it's a lot of different
45:08things, right? Are these projects going
45:10to still get approved? Yes. Are the big
45:12tech companies going to pay more? Pay
45:14more to the cities, pay more to the
45:16towns, yes. Um, but right now, the the
45:19rhetoric is pretty against them. And so,
45:21I think it's going to take a big change
45:24to change the rhetoric, but I think
45:25projects will get done. I think you'll
45:28see those who have projects be able to
45:30scale their existing projects more
45:31easily because they're already have
45:33reached those agreements. So you expect
45:35Democrats to continue to to talk
45:37negatively about AI and data centers?
45:40>> Absolutely. It's like least unpopular,
45:43least popular
45:44>> that's got a halfife of 6 months or a
45:48year. There's no way you can stay in in
45:50that camp.
45:51>> Well, I I think look, these tech
45:52companies have to prove a couple things.
45:54They have to prove that they can build
45:56products not just that make business
45:58workers more productive and wealthier
46:00but also change their lives in positive
46:03ways. And
46:05>> I mean I probably have about enough of
46:07this. I mean at the end of the day uh
46:09politicians politicians
46:13they campaign around something and then
46:15they get into office and like you know
46:18it's just like they hardly even care
46:20about it. So, like whatever politicians
46:23are promising when they're trying to get
46:25elected, if you think like when they
46:27actually get in office, they're just
46:29going to like take that super serious,
46:31like no, that's not the way this works.
46:34Welcome to America. Okay, appreciate
46:36y'all for joining me as always. Thanks
46:37so much for being here. Thank you for
46:38being subscribe the channel. Try to keep
46:40you guys up to date with everything
46:41going on. It's busy times, man. Earning
46:42season going on. Um, just so much. I'm
46:46going to, you know what I'll put as a
46:47pin comment down there today. I'm going
46:49to put my X page and I'll put my
46:50Instagram as well. Um X you you know
46:54really phenomenal to follow me all the
46:55time on that because I'm always posting
46:56a lot of stuff uh you know related to
46:58the market and stocks but especially in
47:00time periods like this. Uh you know you
47:02really want to follow me on there
47:03because you know I only put out a video
47:05like once a day or once every other day.
47:08Meanwhile in X I might do several posts
47:10and so it's just a way to kind of keep
47:11up with my thoughts or whatever I'm
47:13thinking out there and those sorts of
47:15things. Okay. All right guys, appreciate
47:16you. Much love as always and have a
47:17great day. Keep building. Keep growing.

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