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The Great Reallocation: Where Crypto Capital Goes Next - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 — Transcript

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0:08Love to see so many of you here
0:11for day one of Token 2049. A busy week
0:14for everyone, so I appreciate these four
0:15gentlemen taking some time out to sit
0:17with me.
0:18So in this conversation, we're looking
0:19at the reallocation of capital. I think
0:21why this is significant for everyone in
0:23the room is looking at where liquidity
0:25flows, looking at the different
0:27perspectives that all four of you
0:28gentlemen have. What kind of things are
0:31upcoming and what kind of things are
0:33items to to watch and to see what
0:36happens next. So starting off, I'd love
0:38to to go around the room and Richard,
0:41starting with you, just a brief
0:42introduction to the organization.
0:44>> Sure. DI Capital Management, we're an
0:45institutional manager of, you know,
0:47family office institutional capital
0:49direct into crypto space. So we work
0:51across
0:52both early stage VC and liquid markets,
0:54and we've been doing so since about mid
0:562017.
0:58>> Uh 50T Funds, we're a growth stage
1:01private equity investor,
1:03uh focus mostly on companies in the
1:05digital asset world making at least 50
1:08to 100 million in revenue.
1:10Um we've been around now 6 years.
1:13We've made 25 investments, around less
1:16than 2 billion AUM.
1:17>> Um Monarch Asset Management, uh
1:19multi-strategy hedge fund focused on the
1:21liquid markets. Um do everything from
1:23on-chain to quantitative strategies to
1:25options.
1:26Uh we're owned by FalconX.
1:28>> Brevan Howard Digital is a multi-billion
1:31division within Brevan Howard, just a
1:32$35 billion fund.
1:34The digital business invests for
1:36everything from liquid tokens through to
1:38privates.
1:39>> Thank you. Thank you all for the
1:40introduction. Now, something that we're
1:42hearing continuously across the two days
1:44on the stage is the convergence of
1:46finance, traditional finance, and
1:48digital asset space, and also what that
1:50means for everyone in terms of
1:51investments of capital.
1:53I think first of all, just starting, and
1:55Shilang, I'd like to start with you
1:56here. When we look at the convergence of
1:58the two, when we look at digital assets
1:59moving on chain,
2:01is this something where we're just
2:02seeing traditional markets having better
2:04financial plumbing, or are we really
2:06seeing a new financial suite of products
2:08for people to allocate capital into?
2:11>> Yeah, I think it's it's both, right? I
2:12think it's both in [snorts] sequence,
2:14right? Plumbing is what brings assets on
2:17chain. And once it's on chain, I think
2:21how it's trader interact with, it's it's
2:23the user behavior that changes and
2:26creates a new market. Um and I want to
2:28differentiate between a new asset and a
2:30new market, cuz market takes into
2:32account how users interact with the
2:33asset and how behavior changes, right? I
2:36think if you look historically at
2:38financial markets and how that became,
2:41you know,
2:41on the internet, uh
2:43capital markets, how they became
2:44electronic, uh payment markets, how that
2:47became digital, all that changed how we,
2:50you know, paid, traded, invested, uh and
2:54interacted with these new markets,
2:55right? And now, I think you're looking
2:57at things like
2:59um
3:00you know, on-chain vaults or uh uh uh
3:04you know, yield-bearing stablecoins.
3:06Uh these are all fundamental or
3:08perpetual swaps, right? These are all
3:09fundamentally different markets. They
3:11might not all be new assets, but they
3:13are fundamentally different as uh
3:15markets and how users interact with them
3:18um are consistently different than how
3:20historically uh they have, right? Like a
3:23a trader on a Saturday, you know,
3:25trading AI chip stocks, um you know, on
3:27a perpetual market, that that is
3:29fundamentally a different market, right?
3:31So, um
3:33that that I I truly believe that we are
3:35creating new new markets.
3:37>> And Chris, what about you? Do you agree
3:38with the statement of newer products
3:40versus better plumbing?
3:42>> Yeah, I I align with that. We're seeing
3:45really two phases here. The first phase
3:47for tokenization is effectively using it
3:49as a wrapper.
3:51So, with stablecoins and
3:53you're effectively you're
3:54traditional finance instruments
3:56uh with a tokenized layer. That brings
3:59significant benefits.
4:00Um as mentioned, 24/7 trading,
4:03more efficient allocation of capital.
4:06But what gets really exciting is when
4:08you hit phase two, which is when you
4:09have native issuance on chain.
4:11And there's a couple of interesting
4:13transactions that really identify that
4:15the where the puck is moving. One of
4:17those is Bullish's acquisition of
4:19Aquinity.
4:20And the other is Securitize tie-up with
4:23Computershare.
4:25In both those cases, they're targeting
4:27um native shareholder registries
4:31that can be brought on chain. And that
4:32really opens up then native [snorts]
4:34issuance on chain, which will bring the
4:35second phase,
4:37which will bring more benefits in terms
4:39of efficiency particularly,
4:41um but also in terms of operations.
4:44So,
4:45what lens I look at it at this point is
4:47it's really about where does this value
4:49accrue, and where the investment
4:51opportunities are as this convergence
4:54continues.
4:55>> And now you've mentioned the phrase open
4:58things up. And Richard, Dan, I want to
5:00turn to you now. We've got to talk about
5:01liquidity. As we see the barriers to
5:03entry come down, do we see that there's
5:06new liquidity pools, there's more
5:07capital to be allocated, or is this just
5:09the same liquidity moving around in
5:11different cycles? Richard, I'll start
5:13with you.
5:14>> Yeah, I think by definition there's more
5:16liquidity because if you can trade
5:17something on the weekend that you
5:18couldn't trade on the weekend before,
5:20you've automatically started a new
5:21market and new liquidity that didn't
5:23exist yeah, probably only 12 months ago.
5:26I think also, you know, people
5:28underestimate, particularly people that
5:29come from advanced developed markets,
5:32the barriers that exist outside of those
5:34advanced developed markets to own a lot
5:35of assets. And you know, stable coins is
5:38a good example of you know, how
5:40launching a probably the world's most
5:42boring product in terms of a US dollar
5:45onto a new technology framework has
5:47basically seen the proliferation,
5:49particularly through Asia, of you know,
5:51new people owning US dollars effectively
5:53that never owned them before.
5:54And I just think we'll see the same
5:55thing again, that we'll see
5:57people using this technology to, you
6:00know, own an interest in a Tesla stock
6:02or own an
6:03interest in SpaceX, which
6:05for a lot of us is easy to do in our
6:06home market, but for a lot of other
6:07people it's not. And, you know, so that
6:09adds liquidity. I do think it does
6:12start to push the liquidity to the top
6:14end of assets, like we've seen with
6:16stable coins and US dollars
6:18proliferating much more than you would
6:20probably expect. You know, there's an
6:21Aussie dollar stablecoin market, but
6:23it's tiny even in Australia compared to
6:25the US dollar stablecoin market.
6:27And I think we're starting to see that
6:29in tokenization market as well as people
6:31sort of congregating to those mega
6:32assets around, you know, the
6:34SpaceX, the Teslas, those sorts of
6:36stocks that they've wanted to own and
6:37there's been barriers to stop them
6:38before.
6:39>> Mhm. And right now the open access is is
6:41quite new. So, we are seeing a broad
6:43range of allocations of liquidity. But,
6:46Dan, are you starting to see, looking
6:48ahead 3 to 5 years time, can there be a
6:51concentration in just a few pools or
6:53markets?
6:55>> Um
6:56I don't know. 3 to 5 years,
6:58uh
6:59in our space and I overlay AI, uh I
7:03think it's it's hard to know.
7:05Um I would say [snorts] that the space
7:07has changed dramatically from 2020-2021.
7:10Um
7:12at that point it was mostly just about
7:14Bitcoin and ETH and maybe the beginning
7:16of Solana and then all these venture
7:18projects.
7:19Um and in the last 5 years, I mean,
7:22Richard's mentioned, you know,
7:23stablecoin growth was a zero essentially
7:25in 2020.
7:27And now RWAs are real and we have, you
7:30know, perps trading and uh I think every
7:33cycle has has different um aspects that
7:37drive it.
7:37>> Mhm.
7:38>> I think clearly hype is been a driver of
7:41this current cycle. I think we're in a
7:42bull phase now, finally. Um but then you
7:46have prediction markets, which
7:47essentially didn't exist before.
7:49Um you know, capital uh is definitely
7:54going to different places in this cycle
7:57than it did in previous cycles. And then
7:59I'd say more broadly, unfortunately,
8:02um with the advent of AI, I mean,
8:05fortunately, the capital suck out of
8:09blockchain crypto has been enormous. And
8:11so, it's been a more difficult cycle
8:15because, you know, you have the short
8:16rates in the US at 5% and um you have
8:20all these other, I would say, um
8:23frontier capital
8:25uh allocations going to space and
8:28robotics and uh and to build out the AI,
8:31which is trillions of dollars. So,
8:35I think we we definitely have seen less
8:38capital
8:39um so far
8:41in this bull phase, and I think it may
8:43have been like why it's so grudging
8:46on the on the on the on the surface.
8:49Like, Bitcoin again at the same price
8:51almost that it was 5 years ago. But then
8:53there's been tremendous growth in all
8:55these other ancillary areas that I would
8:57say are part of the digital asset
8:59ecosystem that has really grown. And
9:02tokenization
9:04uh with the value of all things moving
9:08>> [snorts]
9:08>> on chain.
9:09>> Yeah.
9:10>> Right. Um
9:12I think that's the leader for this
9:13cycle.
9:15Yeah.
9:15>> Interesting. And you've mentioned the AI
9:18capital flows that we did see. There was
9:20huge interest and momentum from the AI
9:22space. A lot of people in crypto did
9:23question if we were seeing liquidity
9:25move from the crypto space over into the
9:27the AI world. Chris, I'm curious to hear
9:31your takes here for someone that's been
9:32kind of watching and seeing both both
9:35industries [snorts] emerge.
9:36Are these different pools of capital or
9:39are we seeing the rotation move from one
9:41back to the other?
9:42>> I think maybe just to start off,
9:43expectation is that you'll see different
9:46themes attract capital at different
9:47points and momentum can be a good driver
9:50of that.
9:51The lens of which we look at it is that
9:53these two technology cycles are
9:55complementary and annotative. Um
9:59AI maybe to start with that is
10:02early in the sense of the picks and
10:03shovels a huge amount of capex.
10:06But what we're seeing there already is a
10:08shift from analyzing data to creating
10:11data
10:12to then acting on that data. And so that
10:15transition has happened quickly and the
10:17acting on the data brings in a whole new
10:20realm of economic actor
10:23that requires crypto rails to operate.
10:27So that's one kind of cool out on the AI
10:28cycle.
10:30The other interesting observation as
10:32well is that AI is facing a lot of the
10:34common questions and challenges that
10:36crypto did in terms of regulation,
10:39energy use, market infrastructure
10:42uh whether it should be open or closed.
10:45So that's another indication of how
10:46these two cycles have similarities and
10:48how they um overlap.
10:51And then back to these economic actor
10:55again that kind of splits in my mind
10:56into two
10:58themes. The first is retail.
11:00So retail can use AI for a variety of
11:03different activities whether it's moving
11:04cash.
11:05Uh
11:06then on the institutional side
11:09it can have much bigger implications for
11:11treasury management.
11:13And so
11:15we're still very early in this uh
11:17is intertwining of these two cycles
11:20uh but I see them as compounding each
11:21other and increasing as you see more use
11:24cases for crypto rails.
11:27>> And I absolutely agree. I think crypto
11:29rails will run for for the AI ecosystem.
11:32If we look at the adoption curve of what
11:33we've seen for AI compared to crypto,
11:36the AI adoption curve was like a hockey
11:38stick. It was just straight up. And I
11:40think everyone in the room can
11:41acknowledge that blockchain rails will
11:43provide the the brick-and-mortar
11:45infrastructure and currency that we'll
11:46use. Do we think that's been priced in
11:49yet?
11:50>> No, it's not been priced in. I mean,
11:52XRO2, which is
11:54maybe just in the very early stages.
11:56There's no There's actually no
11:59significant revenue coming from any of
12:01the agentic
12:03uh transactions on chain. I mean, it's
12:05tens of millions of dollars, I think, at
12:06the very most, even though there've been
12:08trillions uh trillions millions of
12:10agents that have transacted on chain.
12:13It's just very, very small.
12:15Um but I definitely think this overlap
12:18of AI and blockchain,
12:20there're going to be many companies that
12:22are being built, and uh I think many
12:25protocols that'll be leveraged to that.
12:27So, it's just
12:28just very early. I mean, it didn't exist
12:30even a year ago. I mean, Richard, are
12:32you involved in any of these
12:35little projects that are popping up?
12:37>> Yeah, some of them. And I think the the
12:39overlay to um
12:41you know, that where's the marginal
12:42dollar gone in the last 12 months is
12:44pretty stark. If you look at
12:45you know, the performance of crypto now,
12:47there's you know, you don't want to put
12:48too much causality here, but the
12:50performance of crypto versus the
12:51performance of the software sector
12:54statis- uh software indi- indices in the
12:56US is almost a perfect match, right? And
13:00software's been sold off because it's a
13:02not AI industry.
13:03So, I think the marginal dollar made the
13:05call early on that crypto's not a AI
13:08industry.
13:09They've taken money from crypto, they've
13:10put it into chase the next thing in the
13:12software in the AI space, just like
13:15they've sold their software names into
13:16the AI space.
13:18But, you know, as markets do, they
13:19overreact, and you start to get things
13:20like software companies
13:22that are pretty good trading at six
13:23times PEs, and you start to see crypto
13:25companies getting assumed they're not
13:27going to go anywhere or have anything to
13:28do with AI, which I think which I think
13:30is wrong. Um
13:32You know, everything that digitizes the
13:34world is good for crypto in my view and
13:35and then there's nothing around AI
13:37that's not digital, right? So, it's just
13:38going to bring more and more
13:40assets, more and more users, more and
13:42more things into the space that move at
13:44crypto need to move at crypto speeds.
13:46>> Mhm. It's not priced in at all. I mean,
13:48I would That was your question.
13:49>> Yeah.
13:50>> Yeah, zero. I mean, I don't
13:52>> Well, I think crypto's priced that it's
13:53not that it's negative that AI's
13:55actually a negative if anything, right?
13:57So,
13:57>> Well, I mean, the the future of AI and
14:01blockchain together, that 3-5 year
14:03future is not priced in today.
14:05There's no in the price of the
14:07cryptocurrency.
14:09So,
14:11>> There's also a big macro factor as well,
14:14which is the redistribution of baby
14:16boomers' money in the US.
14:18As we age, there'll be uh tens of
14:20trillions.
14:22And there's been lots of speculation for
14:24a number of years about how that will
14:25affect markets and how that will affect
14:27investing.
14:28And this is This is happening and
14:30accelerating a point where
14:32AI agents are going to be available to
14:35individual retail traders
14:37to operate and use them on uh blockchain
14:39rails. So, we are really at the um
14:42really at an inflection point where the
14:43form's not priced.
14:45>> Because it's a really interesting
14:46advantage for everyday retail traders,
14:48people that are in the audience, people
14:49like me and you, that are now able to
14:52have a much sophisticated strategy for
14:54how to
14:56allocate that idle capital that's just
14:58sitting in a bank. So, do you think that
15:00will change any of the adjusted terms?
15:03>> Yes, I think
15:04we're still very early. And I think
15:05we've it'll take a bit of time to build
15:07up trust for that, but um yeah,
15:10there's a lot of cash sitting at banks
15:13and can that be invested in a different
15:16way by retail using AI?
15:19Absolutely. Uh and that will mean that
15:22banks will have compete for those
15:23deposits and there'll be more products
15:24available for
15:26uh for retail. One of [snorts] the kind
15:28of macro implications that sometimes
15:30gets discussed, of course, is how does
15:32that impact credit formation?
15:34In terms of credit impulse
15:37uh
15:38but with banks using that cash to make
15:39loans into the economy.
15:42And where I think is so interesting is
15:43that there's going to be a number of
15:44direct products, direct credit products
15:47that investors are going to be able to
15:48use AI agents to find and invest uh as
15:51well as the cash. And so I think the
15:53impact uh from that transformation that
15:56banks undertake will be look much less
15:58than perhaps people expect.
16:01>> Interesting. And Richard, what do you
16:02think as well? I think for people that
16:03are in the asset management space, also
16:05looking at digital assets, it's also
16:07going to be competitive in terms of
16:09working with clients.
16:10>> Yeah, I think so. I think the
16:12you know, the the easiest read we have
16:14on AI's impact on crypto markets is that
16:16uh volumes explode.
16:18So,
16:19um if you look Robinhood's brought in
16:21agents alongside there for their
16:23customers to use. Aero drone in the
16:24crypto space is launching agents.
16:27I think everyone's going to have access
16:28to
16:30more sophisticated, high-frequency type
16:32trading
16:34uh capabilities that they've never had
16:35before. Even I, you know, who who I'm a
16:37fundamental guy, I'll you know, I'm
16:38running a bunch of agents trading
16:40probably helping Brevans and Monarchs
16:42bottom line in terms of them picking me
16:43off in the market, but it's liquidity
16:46that wasn't in the market 3 months ago
16:48that, you know, scales quite peak. So, I
16:50think from our perspective,
16:52the opportunity we see around in the
16:53short term is that volumes will pick up
16:55materially. I think it does mean that um
16:58everyone gets access to more
16:59sophisticated,
17:01more agentic type HFT type um
17:05capabilities they haven't had before,
17:06but I I'd I'd just be a little cautious
17:07because
17:09you know, whether that's the right thing
17:10to thing for them to put their money in,
17:11right? There's still barriers around
17:12banks allocating that capital that's
17:14still relatively high risk, hard things
17:16to understand for a bunch of people. So,
17:19um I think in the short term it pushes
17:21it pushes volumes up, but there's still
17:22a barriers before I think we see a mass
17:24reallocation of capital.
17:26>> I think one share probably is just it it
17:29matters in a world of AI and
17:31agentic trading and agentic finance,
17:32probably matters less where capital sits
17:36and what that capital represents or how
17:39fungible that capital is um
17:42and whether you can use that as
17:45liquidity across many, many platforms,
17:47right? Because an agent doesn't really
17:49fundamentally care um you know, where
17:52the asset sits. The inertia and barriers
17:54in moving that assets kind of falls and
17:57dies down over time. And really what
17:58that matters is how that asset easily
18:00can move across the ecosystem and um
18:03various on-chain markets, right? So, I
18:04do think yes, more volume. Um I think it
18:08matters less about the platform and
18:10ultimately the brand
18:11um and ultimately what that asset
18:13represents um and how it can be utilized
18:15um on chain, for example.
18:18>> So, we've talked about looking ahead,
18:19the convergence of AI and crypto,
18:22blockchain rails on tradfi systems.
18:24It seems pretty bullish from what we're
18:26seeing, but then there's also the macro
18:28environment at play. And I think Dan,
18:30this is where I do turn to you as the
18:31macro and Bitcoin guy and from a content
18:33perspective. So, can you give us a
18:35run-through of kind of how the macro
18:37environment is lining up right now and
18:39what kind of things this is pointing to?
18:42>> Um
18:44okay, you set me up for that one, but
18:45yes, you're right. I'm a macro guy all
18:47time.
18:48Um look, I
18:51had originally not thought the interest
18:53rates in the US would back up to this
18:55degree.
18:56Uh I really think that um
18:59it's been overdone.
19:01Um the employment data in the US has
19:04been very soft. Average hourly earnings
19:06just hit 3%. It's been straight down to
19:08the last few years.
19:10>> [cough]
19:11>> You know, [clears throat] the the oil
19:12shock from the war is obviously having
19:16impact in the US. You can see
19:18uh gasoline prices up at $6. You've
19:21never seen that before. So, I think
19:23that's artificially inflating some of
19:25the inflation numbers.
19:27But with uh the Fed Governor Warsh and
19:30Scott Bessent at Treasury managing
19:33um I actually feel quite confident. I
19:36mean, they both uh as I did, they both
19:38work for Standard Chartered Bank. I
19:40worked at Ducane. I actually was there
19:42between Warsh uh between Bessent and
19:44Warsh. Um and
19:47you know, their framework for analyzing
19:51world markets uh
19:53is I think of a quality that we've never
19:56seen before
19:58like in the US, like going back 30, 40
20:00years. So, I'm not worried about the
20:03bond market losing control. I lose you
20:05know, people saying that that that the
20:07bond control bond market's been out of
20:09control.
20:10But on the other hand, France really
20:12does have a problem and uh
20:14spread between French and German bonds
20:16is blown out to the most in sort of 15
20:19years or so. So,
20:21um and that's for political reasons. I I
20:24do think a around the edges liquidity
20:27generally. So, what is macro? Macro is
20:29assessing changes in liquidity and how
20:32they'll affect the broad asset markets.
20:35Um
20:36I think
20:37um
20:39broadly underneath the US market
20:42there's a lot of damage uh that's being
20:45done. So, the top 10, 20 companies are
20:48all doing great, but the bottom, you
20:50know, 300 in the S&P are just getting
20:53killed. And their businesses uh I think
20:56are challenged. So, there's a real
20:59bifurcation and this is why you're not
21:01hearing Usually, macro there's a very
21:03clear direction. Um and what that will
21:07mean, of course, for gold and Bitcoin.
21:09And I think at the moment
21:13you know, it's a bit of a mixed picture.
21:17And what I would say is that Bitcoin,
21:20ETH, digital assets broadly have
21:23massively underperformed the Nasdaq
21:26in the last few years.
21:28And I think that that underperformance
21:29is essentially coming to an end.
21:33You know, I I I think about
21:36So, stepping a bit like for a second
21:38just back from the traditional macro.
21:41If you think back to 2021
21:44when Bitcoin was at 60
21:46and
21:47ETH were over 3,000
21:50and you look at how developed the
21:52digital asset landscape was then versus
21:55today
21:56Today it it is much more developed and
21:59you have ETFs and all sorts of you have
22:02dots, you have the the the whole perps,
22:05the whole uh ecosystem has grown
22:07multiples.
22:09Um so I think it's just the headline
22:13assets, Bitcoin and ETH that are lagging
22:16the actual developments uh underneath.
22:20Um
22:20and so therefore
22:22uh I and they've massively
22:24underperformed the Nasdaq. So, I think
22:26it's right now is a fantastic time
22:28um to be long and making investments in
22:31our space. I mean, I don't Do you have
22:33the same view?
22:34>> Yeah. Yeah, I think. Yeah.
22:36>> I mean, to your point, if if prices are
22:37down
22:38but fundamentals are up, things are
22:40cheap.
22:41So
22:42>> And they're very clear. It's not like
22:44this is a nuanced situation. There were
22:46no stablecoins. Now there are 50
22:47trillion dollars of volume. There were
22:49no RWAs, now there are. There were no
22:51perps, there was no predict There was
22:52nothing. So
22:55it's just
22:56uh a waiting game. You know, we just
22:58have to wait. I have a 10-year life
23:00fund, thank goodness. Otherwise, I mean
23:03>> Well, that's the thing they showed us
23:04the flaw in crypto is patience, right?
23:06>> Correct.
23:07>> And it's hard to be patient against
23:09volatility.
23:10>> It's very hard.
23:12>> But also, if we're seeing a drive and
23:13increase in utility for stablecoins,
23:16mostly majority US dollar denominated,
23:19does that also play a shift in long-term
23:21macro outlooks?
23:23Maybe Sheila over to you as well.
23:25>> Yeah, I think what we're kind of seeing
23:27is um at the central bank global level,
23:30perhaps a
23:32dedollarization that's kind of happening
23:34with the bond markets, right? Uh at
23:35least temporary short-term.
23:37Uh what we've seen longer term um and
23:40what the administration has been pushing
23:42uh
23:43at call it the more grassroots, you
23:46know, call it retail level globally is
23:48kind of the redollarization of of the
23:51world, right? And it's almost like a
23:53modern Marshall Plan or soft power,
23:55whatever you want to call it, right? It
23:57is stablecoins generally are denominated
24:00in the US dollar
24:02um and the more usage of stablecoins
24:04globally
24:05ultimately results in more inflow to the
24:07dollar
24:08um and that that's been a
24:11a message and a push from the
24:12administration, you know, for the past
24:13couple of years, right? So, I think
24:15that's been a continuous shift that that
24:18we're seeing. Um and then how that ties
24:20to maybe crypto markets, I think
24:22uh generally we're we're
24:25judging the crypto markets in a
24:27bifurcated manner, right? We we we have
24:29kind of hard assets, Bitcoin, yet it's
24:32underperformed the Nasdaq in the past
24:34few years.
24:36Um but I think it'll continue to be
24:37judged as a hard asset and it'll catch
24:39up over time. Uh and then there's kind
24:41of the stablecoin dollarization of
24:45uh
24:45uh the crypto markets, right? Which is
24:47kind of everything from like payments to
24:49to trade five to to stablecoins. So,
24:52that that's kind of how
24:54I would say the crypto markets have
24:55bifurcated in general. Um and then
24:58everything else is more just risk on
24:59risk off assets.
25:01>> Can we just say one thing? I think
25:03you're right to point out
25:05it's it's not traditional macro, but
25:07that the
25:08advent of stablecoins and the growth
25:12um
25:13is a huge positive macro factor, not
25:16just for the dollar, but for assets on
25:18chain.
25:20So, I in my worldview of like where
25:23we're going, we're in the first inning
25:25or two of the tokenization of liquid
25:28assets.
25:29Um and I think that's a foregone
25:30conclusion. The holy grail for me, and
25:33it it has always been this from even 6-7
25:36years ago,
25:37was is the tokenization of illiquid
25:40assets.
25:41And so,
25:43that hasn't even started. So, when I
25:45think about where are we in the growth
25:47of our space,
25:49um the hardest, most difficult thing,
25:51but most needed is the tokenization of
25:53illiquid assets,
25:55essentially real estate, that's largely
25:57frozen. And there are all sorts of other
25:59illiquid assets.
26:01So, I think
26:02if you like think about like what am I
26:04doing? Am I should I be in this
26:06industry? Is this what's going to
26:07happen?
26:08Um to me, the end state is when all of
26:12those things, the illiquid things, are
26:13tokenized, and that hasn't even begun
26:15yet.
26:16>> I I Yeah, those are just hard maybe that
26:19the macro advising opportunity
26:21because we've got a multi-decade
26:23technology cycle and we're at the
26:25application phase.
26:26And that
26:28it moves in macro factors such as a long
26:30end.
26:31You they put pressure on prices.
26:33Those prices don't necessarily reflect
26:35what the adoption curve is doing.
26:37It's so I see those as good
26:38opportunities to to yeah, manage a long
26:41cycle with some of the macro volatility
26:44that creates those opportunities to
26:45trade and invest.
26:47>> It's such an interesting time. Now, I
26:48know we have 1-2 minutes left. I want to
26:50ask each of you if we fast forward to
26:53Token 2049 next year, what do you think
26:56one of the key conversations that will
26:58be on the stage and it could be
26:59tokenization of illiquid assets, it can
27:02be
27:03agentic AI payments and the rails beyond
27:05them.
27:06>> Look, I think um
27:08I think if we look back in a year's time
27:09it'll be how did I miss it? So,
27:12um everything we look at now
27:14is um particularly from a volume
27:17perspective in the market is, you know,
27:19near the bottom or close to the bottom
27:20of the cycle.
27:21And I think people in crypto are good at
27:23forgetting that
27:24how quickly cycles turn in crypto and
27:26that's both on the downside and the
27:28upside, but
27:29if you look at the volume cycle in
27:30particular in terms of trading and
27:32liquidity, which is, you know, sort of
27:33the key activity that happens in crypto
27:35and the key revenue generator,
27:37you know, it's down 80% from where it
27:38was in in late 2025, right?
27:42And you know, that's that's a hard thing
27:43to to go through as an investor,
27:46but we've done it before. Like at the
27:47market's drawn down 80% last time from
27:492021 to 2022 and then it grew 16x on the
27:52back of that, right? So,
27:54I think just, you know, keeping a the
27:56longer term view around adoption and
27:57where things can go and how quickly
27:59sentiment changes in quick in crypto and
28:01then how quickly the fundamentals
28:02rebound as well, because it still is a
28:04relatively small asset class and it
28:06doesn't take much of reallocation, much
28:08more attention to really see things
28:10accelerate. So, I'd hope next year we're
28:12talking around
28:13how did we miss so so many obvious
28:15things a year ago?
28:17>> A little bit contrarian, but
28:19what about the idea that
28:21the whole conference, and this is a lot
28:23of
28:24you know, it tends to be a broad
28:25cryptocurrency, but that
28:27Bitcoin
28:29becomes the center of the conference
28:30because it's trading at 250,000.
28:34And I would say ETH, you know, would
28:35come along too, so that it becomes less
28:38about all these things we're talking
28:39about now
28:41and ETH at 8,000 and Bitcoin at 250,
28:45everyone's going to be running around
28:46talking about the core assets of the
28:48space.
28:50>> Um I would say maybe at least from a
28:53financial market perspective, perhaps
28:54like compute markets, right? I think
28:57uh as a trader I'm hopeful that that
28:59does develop into a real liquid
29:02uh marketplace. Um it intersects a bit
29:05with the crypto markets. Uh we're just
29:07figuring that now from a regulatory
29:08perspective in terms of settlement
29:11indices. Hopefully by this time next
29:13year CME will actually approve
29:15everything and there will be liquid
29:16markets there and
29:18um but that's an area that, you know,
29:20I'm hopeful
29:22uh a complete new market that trading
29:24firms like ours can participate in.
29:26>> I think the word will be dispersion. I
29:28think you'll see some big winners and
29:30some big losers. That's a function of
29:32where we are in the cycle.
29:33Uh but it will be less about like the
29:35average performance more about where's
29:38the market value, where's the value
29:39capture.
29:40Uh and I think on that basis we'll have
29:42some very very large companies that
29:44which are probably 2 billion now should
29:46be 20 billion plus when we sit down here
29:49next year.
29:50>> Fantastic. Well, watch this space,
29:51gentlemen. Thank you so much for the
29:53insights today. Such a pleasure.
29:55>> Thank you.
29:56>> [applause]

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