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The Future of US Foreign Policy in the Middle East with Representative Mike Lawler — Transcript

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0:00Well, good morning everyone and welcome
0:02to Hudson Institute. I'm Joel Fischman,
0:04director of external affairs. Thank you
0:06for joining us in person and online
0:08today.
0:09The Middle East is undergoing one of its
0:11most significant geopolitical
0:13realignments in decades. America's
0:15adversaries continue to compete for
0:17influence across the region. Our
0:20partners face new security challenges
0:22and policymakers in Washington are
0:24grappling with how best to protect US
0:26interests and sustain American
0:28leadership in a rapidly changing
0:30strategic landscape.
0:33At the same time, the United States is
0:34stressing is strengthening, excuse me,
0:36relationships with key regional partners
0:39while reassessing its role in an
0:41increasing complex security environment.
0:44Few members of Congress have been more
0:46engaged in these issues than Congressman
0:48Mike Lawler,
0:49who serves on the House Foreign Affairs
0:51Committee and chairs a subcommittee on
0:53the Middle East and North Africa.
0:56Congressman Lawler represents New York's
0:5817th district 17th district in the
1:01Hudson Valley. As an institute named for
1:04the river that runs through it, we're
1:05especially pleased to welcome him today.
1:08He's been deeply involved in shaping
1:10discussions about American alliances,
1:12regional security, and the future of US
1:15engagement in the Middle East. Joining
1:17him is my colleague Joel Rayburn, a
1:19senior fellow at Hudson and one of the
1:21nation's foremost experts on Middle East
1:24affairs. Before coming to Hudson, Joel
1:26served as US special envoy for Syria and
1:29deputy assistant secretary of state for
1:31Lebanese affairs, where he helped shape
1:33American policy towards Syria, Iraq,
1:36Lebanon, Jordan, and the broader region.
1:39Together, they'll discuss the emerging
1:41Middle East security order, America's
1:43security or strategic interests in the
1:45region, and what the future of US policy
1:48may look like in the years ahead. Please
1:50join me in welcoming Congressman Lawler
1:52and Joel Rayburn.
1:54>> [applause]
2:05>> Congressman Great Great to have you
2:06here.
2:07>> Thanks for having me.
2:08>> Yeah. Can I start out also by extending
2:10Joel Freeland's Hudson points? It's over
2:117 years of my life I lived across the
2:13river from your district at the US
2:15Military Academy at West Point. 4 years
2:17as a cadet, 3 on the faculty. I just
2:19have to say you have a great district.
2:20>> Oh, no question.
2:21>> It is It is It's a
2:23beautiful district. There's a lot to do
2:25there. That's a place
2:26Poor West Pointers had to go across the
2:27river to shop in your district cuz the
2:29shopping is so much better.
2:31>> So So I'm on I'm on both sides of the
2:32river. I have all of Rockland County. So
2:34Bear Mountain just just south of of West
2:37Point. Uh but it really is a spectacular
2:41district. And actually my my favorite
2:44painting in the capital is the painting
2:46of Henry Hudson discovering the Hudson.
2:49Uh and going up the river right around
2:53West Point. And it used to hang in uh
2:57the House Chamber until the early 1900s.
3:00And now it's off the rotunda
3:03in a stairwell. But it's a it's
3:04beautiful
3:05painting. And you know, it really speaks
3:07to the history of the region. Uh
3:11and going back, you know, certainly
3:13during the Revolutionary War to today.
3:15So uh it really is a special place.
3:18>> I think also the Hudson River Valley
3:20there's something about it. And New York
3:21City and the counties surrounding it
3:23have always had such They've always had
3:25a global view, if you will, and global
3:28involvement that going right back to the
3:30founding
3:31uh
3:32under as a as a Dutch colony, global
3:34commerce. So people from New York have
3:36always had, I think, a very broad
3:39uh
3:39view on international affairs. I think
3:41you fall into that into that tradition.
3:44>> I think and and two of my
3:47more immediate predecessors, Ben Gilman
3:50and Eliot Engel,
3:51>> Right.
3:51>> uh both served as chair of the committee
3:54and represented different portions of
3:56the district over the last, you know,
3:57few decades. And, um,
4:00look, 75% of adults in my district have
4:03a college degree or higher. It's a very,
4:06uh, affluent area, educated. The
4:07Clintons live there, uh, in my district,
4:10you know, so
4:11people have always been engaged on,
4:15uh, foreign policy. I have one of the
4:17largest Jewish populations, uh, in the
4:20country. I have the second largest
4:21Haitian diaspora.
4:24People are aware of of what is going on
4:27internationally and and off our shores.
4:29And,
4:30you know, I think, um,
4:32you know, serving on both Financial
4:34Services and Foreign Affairs really
4:35gives me a
4:37a front row seat to to what is happening
4:39and what many people in my district do
4:41care about.
4:42>> Yeah. I think, uh, also, I mean, you you
4:45your your tenure in Congress is is is
4:48not terribly long, but you made a really
4:50quick impact, I think, on the Foreign
4:52Affairs Committee. And now you're the
4:53chairman of the Middle East North Africa
4:55Subcommittee. Uh, you've been a thought
4:58leader and issue leader on Middle East
5:00related issues. Uh, you proposed some
5:02very cogent, uh, adminis- uh,
5:05legislation on some of the key national
5:07security issues for the United States in
5:09the region. And it so obviously, even
5:11before now, I think people woke up,
5:13um,
5:14with the current, uh, the current
5:16confrontation, military confrontation
5:17with the Iranian regime. And maybe
5:19hadn't understood the importance of it.
5:22Uh,
5:22and and suddenly there it was in the
5:24summer of 2025, but you'd been engaged
5:26on it before then.
5:28Uh, even on specific legislation, as I
5:31mentioned. Uh, so, when you talk to
5:33people in your district, how do you
5:35explain to them the relevance of the
5:38Iranian regime problem, the axis of
5:40regime problem for them,
5:43uh, and for for the United for United
5:45States vital interests?
5:47>> Look, I think as you uh, look at foreign
5:49policy, it's it's not conducted in a
5:52vacuum or in silos.
5:55Um almost all of it is interconnected.
5:58Uh and so you look at Iran
6:01and the unholy alliance they have with
6:04China,
6:05uh with Russia, with Venezuela, with
6:08Cuba, with North Korea.
6:10Uh and you look at what has happened
6:12around the globe uh over the last, you
6:16know, five plus years.
6:18Uh and you see uh the consequences of
6:23inaction uh
6:25and failure. Uh and
6:28you know, obviously what happened on
6:30October 7th
6:32uh set off a
6:33a chain of events in the Middle East.
6:36Uh
6:36and in
6:38many respects, uh
6:41the world is in a much better place
6:43today than it was prior to October 7th.
6:47Uh and you see what President Trump has
6:50been focused on, not just striking
6:52Iran's nuclear facilities
6:55uh last summer.
6:56Uh not just removing Maduro.
7:00Uh not just isolating China
7:03uh
7:03from
7:05you know, other parts of the world in
7:07this alliance. Um you know, you see the
7:11uh what has happened with respect to
7:13their illicit oil trade.
7:14>> Mhm.
7:15>> Uh
7:16you know, having Venezuela uh completely
7:19cut off from them
7:21uh is positive. Having
7:23uh the the situation in the Strait of
7:25Hormuz,
7:27while impacting
7:29uh obviously global
7:30uh oil markets, it has a profound impact
7:33on China. China is the biggest purchaser
7:35of Iranian petroleum.
7:37Uh and during my time, I've focused
7:40heavily on combating that illicit oil
7:42trade. I've passed the SHIP Act, the
7:44Iran China Energy Sanctions Act this
7:46Congress I passed through the House. Uh,
7:50you know, we the enhanced uh Iran
7:52Sanctions Act. Um, and you know,
7:55frankly, I I hope the Senate will take
7:57it up because the more pressure we can
8:00put on uh them economically,
8:02uh
8:03the the less financing they have
8:06available to fund their terror proxies,
8:09to fund their ballistic missiles
8:10program, to fund their drone capacity,
8:12to fund their nuclear ambitions. Uh, you
8:16look at what happened during the Biden
8:17administration, they allowed it to
8:20fester. They allowed the illicit oil
8:22trade uh to explode to the tune of
8:25hundreds of billions of dollars uh
8:28financing all of this illicit activity.
8:31Uh and so, you know, from my vantage
8:33point, the way I talk to my constituents
8:36about this,
8:38this is the first time in 47 years a
8:39president has actually been willing to
8:41take action.
8:43It's not enough to just say Iran cannot
8:45have a nuclear weapon. Everybody has
8:47said that.
8:49But the reality is very few have
8:51actually taken action
8:54towards preventing that.
8:56And I think when you look at uh the
8:59situation post October 7th,
9:02uh where Hamas and Hezbollah have been
9:04largely decimated, where uh
9:08you know, there has been significant
9:10change in Syria with the fall of Assad's
9:12regime,
9:13uh where now the Ayatollah, uh
9:17the the clerics, the leadership of the
9:19IRGC
9:21uh have been eliminated, uh and you
9:25know,
9:26military action has been taken
9:28uh to weaken Iran's uh defense
9:31capabilities, their air defenses, their
9:34uh uh,
9:35you know, naval fleet, their ballistic
9:37missiles
9:39uh, capabilities.
9:41These decisions matter and they have
9:44real consequence and I can tell you in
9:47dealing with all of the Gulf states and
9:49all of the ambassadors,
9:51um,
9:52they
9:53are on our side on this. They agree with
9:56us.
9:57Um,
9:58are they concerned about, you know,
10:00obviously, uh, attacks on their homeland
10:03and
10:03uh, being targeted? Yes. But,
10:08they want the threat eliminated.
10:09>> Mhm.
10:10>> And so, the president has made a
10:11difficult but necessary decision, in my
10:13opinion,
10:14uh, to finally deal with the threat in a
10:18serious and meaningful way,
10:20especially when you have a regime that
10:22showed it was willing to use ballistic
10:24missiles,
10:26uh, in the thousands,
10:28to attack civilian populations
10:31and to finance a terrorist attack
10:34against our greatest ally,
10:36uh, inclusive of Americans being killed
10:38on October 7th.
10:39>> Right.
10:40>> And this is, you know,
10:42when I listen to some of the drivel
10:44coming out of my colleagues in Congress
10:46and and, uh,
10:48people like Ro Khanna and others who,
10:50uh,
10:51have just
10:52completely jumped the shark because
10:54they're more concerned about their base
10:56politics than they are actual policy.
10:59Um,
11:00you know,
11:01I'm not going to waver, uh, on this and
11:04I and I think, regardless of the
11:07political consequence,
11:08uh, the president made the right
11:10decision.
11:11>> I think also people, um,
11:14people I and I know I know you see it
11:16cuz you're on the Foreign Affairs
11:17Committee, you're very engaged in sort
11:18of the the day-to-day, uh,
11:21uh, developments coming out of these
11:23various regions, but I I think otherwise
11:25Americans sort of have lost track a
11:28little bit under the Biden
11:29administration about the way in which
11:31the rest of the world also changed its
11:33attitude toward the Iranian regime
11:35really to align with what President
11:37Trump's uh warnings were about the
11:39Iranian regime during his first term. If
11:41you look at uh the way the Iranian
11:43regime uh essentially intervened in a
11:45European war um by supplying uh the
11:49drones and missiles that Russia was
11:51using uh against Ukrainian population
11:54centers. Um I sending it essentially
11:57IRGC advisers to Ukraine to help the
11:59Russians can conduct the war. And then
12:01the way in which uh the Iranian regime
12:04through Hezbollah, but also directly was
12:06using Venezuela as a platform to try to
12:08destabilize our allies and uh threaten
12:11our border in uh in uh uh the Western
12:14Hemisphere. And just the way the Iranian
12:15regime sort of projects power
12:17destabilizing terrorist power and other
12:19uh other destabilizing power around the
12:22world. I think people lot and and as you
12:24pointed out the the Gulf states I think
12:27have come to the realization they can't
12:28really they can't really uh reliably
12:31coexist side by side with that regime as
12:34it stands. I think people here in the
12:35United States sort of lost track of
12:36that.
12:37>> Uh couldn't agree more. Uh and I think a
12:39lot of this is driven by politics.
12:42Um
12:43many of my colleagues on the other side
12:45of the aisle have completely changed
12:47their positions. Their positions are
12:49also inconsistent.
12:51If you support Ukraine, which I do
12:53uh and you want to push back against
12:55Russia
12:57why would you not want to
13:00eliminate the threat posed by a nuclear
13:03Iran or an Iranian a a regime that ex
13:07exports terrorism
13:09whether through its proxies or by its uh
13:12relationship with Russia and what it has
13:14done in the war in Ukraine or North
13:17Korea sending troops uh to just die on
13:20the battlefield. Um you know, and there
13:23you have China
13:25uh you know, in in large measure
13:29involved in and behind much of it.
13:32Uh and
13:34I I just fundamentally believe
13:37many folks in this city have lost track
13:39of
13:41what
13:42Congress's responsibility is, what
13:44Congress's role is.
13:47Uh yes, domestic politics matters. Yes,
13:50domestic policy matters.
13:53But it is the federal government that is
13:55responsible for foreign policy.
13:57Not the states.
13:59Uh and not state government. Um but the
14:03federal government. So, we play a
14:04critical role in this. And you have to
14:07be able to walk and chew gum at the same
14:08time and be able to do both domestic
14:10policy and foreign policy. Uh and
14:13national security. Uh and obviously our
14:16military
14:18uh capacity. And so, when you look at
14:21some of the challenges that we are
14:22dealing with, I don't think there's any
14:23question. Many Many folks have lost
14:25complete sight of what has happened in
14:28the world over the last 5 years.
14:31Uh and failed to truly recognize the
14:34coordinated
14:36uh you know, and systemic attacks
14:40uh financially
14:42>> Yeah.
14:43>> militarily
14:45from a national security standpoint. You
14:47look at things that, you know, China is
14:50doing, what they've done with
14:51intellectual property theft, what
14:53they've done uh you know, with trying to
14:56seize control of ports and waterways.
14:58When the president talked about, for
15:00instance, the Panama Canal,
15:01>> Right.
15:01>> how many people snickered and laughed,
15:03"Oh, what is he talking about? He's
15:05crazy." No, he was a thousand percent
15:07correct that we allowed the Panama Canal
15:10to fall under the control of the Chinese
15:12Communist Party.
15:13>> Mhm.
15:13>> Uh and
15:15he took action.
15:17Um you know, Greenland, you know, to me
15:20is not uh
15:23an unimportant issue.
15:26I've said from the very beginning, we're
15:27not seizing Greenland. We shouldn't be
15:29sending troops to Greenland for the
15:31purpose of taking Greenland. We
15:33shouldn't even be threatening that.
15:35But, the point of having stronger uh
15:39military capabilities on Greenland, uh
15:42in partnership with our allies,
15:45he's a thousand percent correct on that.
15:47And when you look at what we have
15:49invested to protect Europe, what we have
15:51invested to support our allies, um he's
15:55right to be annoyed about their response
15:58to the situation in the Middle East.
16:00Because the fact is,
16:04all of this is interconnected.
16:06>> Yeah.
16:07>> And they are right to push back against
16:10Putin.
16:11They are right to
16:13uh defend Ukraine.
16:15But, they should recognize the
16:17connectivity between that situation and
16:20what's going on in the Middle East. And
16:23you know, the failure of uh France and
16:25Germany and and the UK in particular uh
16:29to respond
16:31in a coherent way to this situation, I
16:33think speaks volumes to the disconnect
16:37uh
16:37in the West with what is actually
16:40happening around the globe.
16:41>> Yeah, you raised an important point,
16:43which is I think uh
16:45there only there's a handful of key
16:47strategic choke point waterways that the
16:50global economy, global trade, American
16:53prosperity is is dependent on for the
16:55free flow of commerce. I mean, the
16:56United States, we are a we are a global
16:59commercial inter empire. We rely
17:01>> And by the way, our naval fleet is
17:02critical to that.
17:03>> Exactly.
17:04>> To ensuring that.
17:05>> Yeah, exactly. And I and I have to think
17:07uh uh
17:08that Xi Jinping must be watching very
17:10closely um to see if uh a revanchist
17:14power, i.e. the Iranian regime, can get
17:16away with asserting control over an
17:20international waterway that a lot of the
17:22world depends on.
17:24>> The straight the the the Taiwan straight
17:2760 60% of international trade flows
17:30through the Taiwan straight.
17:33So,
17:35if
17:36Iran is permitted to act
17:39with impunity here
17:41uh and our allies
17:45do nothing to support our effort on
17:47this.
17:49Um
17:51you know,
17:52they're going to regret that
17:54down the road.
17:55Uh and China to your point is watching.
17:58They see how people respond.
18:01Uh
18:02and
18:03you know, ultimately the United States
18:07um
18:08you know, it it is
18:10not in a position where we can just go
18:13it alone.
18:14Our allies uh need to
18:18uh play a role.
18:19Uh
18:20they don't have to be the lead, but they
18:22certainly have to play a role and I
18:24think that's the point the president has
18:27made time and again, especially with our
18:29NATO allies.
18:30Uh who you know, too often
18:34want want want and take take take, but
18:37don't understand the importance of
18:41participating uh
18:43you know, when when asked.
18:45>> Now, there are also I mean, you've laid
18:46out very well I think what the what the
18:48global strategic
18:50uh significance of this confrontation
18:52with Iran is, what it means for for
18:54China and and other, you know, of our
18:56global competitors. There is a strain of
18:59argument uh that's coming from I'd say
19:03sort of uh people
19:05uh who are sympathetic to the Iranian
19:06regime or even even some who are maybe
19:09have different reasons for saying so,
19:11saying actually the United States has
19:13sort of been lured into this conflict in
19:17a [clears throat] way that's against its
19:18interests, especially dragged in by
19:20Prime Minister Netanyahu and and Israel.
19:23How do you reply to that line of
19:26argument?
19:29>> Look,
19:30it's so easy for some seemingly to just
19:33blame the Jews for everything.
19:35Um but the fact of the matter is, if you
19:38look at President Trump's first term
19:41uh and you look at his second term,
19:45he has been clear and consistent on his
19:48views with respect to Iran
19:51uh and
19:52with respect to how
19:54to contain them.
19:56Whether it was Soleimani
19:58uh or, you know, enacting uh the
20:02sanctions or ripping up the JCPOA.
20:06Um
20:07he he has been unequivocal in
20:11uh his position that Iran cannot possess
20:13a nuclear weapon,
20:15uh that the illicit oil trade that funds
20:18their activities
20:20must cease.
20:22Uh and
20:23you know, his maximum pressure campaign
20:27um
20:29has
20:30been one of the most important
20:31strategies in dealing with Iran. It's
20:34the only thing they actually understand.
20:37Uh they don't understand begging. They
20:39don't understand sending pallets of
20:41cash.
20:42Um and you know, ultimately
20:46the Obama approach and the Biden
20:48approach
20:50uh in my opinion
20:52created this mess.
20:54Uh and you have to
20:57be willing to take action.
21:00It to just say, as Republicans and
21:03Democrats have forever,
21:05that Iran cannot possess a nuclear
21:07weapon, but not be willing to actually
21:09take action to stop that,
21:12um
21:12means what?
21:14What does it actually mean?
21:16Uh and
21:18you know, so many of my colleagues
21:20uh frankly have undermined this effort
21:24uh over these past few months
21:26uh pushing for war powers votes
21:29>> Yeah.
21:29>> uh
21:30and totally inconsistent with their
21:32previous positions when Barack Obama was
21:35president. uh a 7-month campaign in
21:38Libya
21:39>> Mhm.
21:39>> uh Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer both
21:42arguing repeatedly that he did not need
21:45uh approval by Congress that he was well
21:47within his Article II powers uh
21:50and that a war powers resolution uh was
21:54not
21:55warranted.
21:58So, what changed?
22:00Um the only thing that changed is that
22:02they absolutely hate Donald Trump, and
22:04so whatever he does
22:05uh is is problematic from their
22:08uh world view.
22:10But
22:11you know, ultimately in this situation
22:14the idea that we were forced into this
22:16by uh Bibi uh
22:18it it is
22:21both ignorant and just rooted in
22:24Jew hatred. I mean, it's just it
22:27it it is, you know, just one more
22:29example of um
22:32you know, where
22:34uh the Democrats are today
22:37um you know, within their party uh if
22:40that's if that's their line of attack.
22:42>> Plus, it's it's not like President Trump
22:43woke up in late February and suddenly
22:45discovered because of input from Prime
22:48Minister Netanyahu that the Iranian
22:50regime was a problem for US national
22:52security. He's been engaged on Iran as a
22:56problem for the United States going back
22:58to the early mid-80s and he's on record
23:01even as far back Have you seen those
23:02videos going back as far as I think 1988
23:05or so talking about Khark Island and the
23:07and the problem with the Strait of
23:08Hormuz?
23:09>> And and let's remember, had October 7th
23:12not happened,
23:14had Iran not financed its terror proxies
23:16to conduct that uh terrorist attack,
23:20um
23:22we'd be in a in a different situation
23:25today. Now,
23:28I look at where we are
23:30and see real opportunity.
23:32>> Mhm.
23:33>> Um you know,
23:35I think Prime Minister Netanyahu and
23:37President Trump
23:39have created a dynamic in which
23:42normalization between Arab states and
23:45the and and Israel
23:48uh is a greater possibility today than
23:51it was prior to October 7th.
23:53>> Mhm.
23:54>> And I think, you know, the Abraham
23:55Accords, which were one of President
23:57Trump's uh most consequential foreign
24:00policy initiatives
24:02uh in his first term,
24:04um has a chance of
24:06expanding and uh
24:09thriving,
24:10um you know, long-term. And I and I
24:13think
24:14that is important to recognize. The
24:17other thing I'd say,
24:19President Trump,
24:22as he did last summer with respect to
24:25their nuclear facilities, as he did in
24:27advance of um
24:29you know,
24:30these attacks in March, as he did with
24:33respect to Maduro,
24:36he gave the opportunity for a negotiated
24:39peace. He gave the opportunity
24:42uh for uh a a legitimate diplomatic
24:46effort.
24:48Um but he also put a timetable on it.
24:51And unlike Barack Obama who said he had
24:53a red line in Syria,
24:56uh and then chose to do nothing.
25:00Um, Donald Trump followed through on his
25:03red line. He followed through on uh, the
25:0760-day
25:09notice.
25:10And from that vantage point,
25:14it sends a very clear message to,
25:17uh,
25:17not just Iran,
25:19uh, or Venezuela,
25:21but to China,
25:23that we are not screwing around.
25:25>> Mhm.
25:26>> Uh, and you know, I think one of the
25:28things that has been fascinating to
25:29watch
25:31in all of this,
25:33uh, is that
25:35Iran's allies effectively
25:39have not gotten engaged.
25:41Uh, Russia has stayed out, by and large.
25:46China's
25:48sitting on the sidelines.
25:51Venezuela, obviously, has been
25:53completely cut off.
25:55Um,
25:57that matters.
25:58And I don't think that would be the case
26:01if Kamala Harris were president today.
26:04Uh,
26:06or certainly Joe Biden.
26:09And so, people can criticize, but I I
26:11think fundamentally
26:13there's a much bigger,
26:16uh,
26:16play happening here,
26:18>> Yeah.
26:18>> that I think is lost on a lot of people.
26:21>> Also, diplomacy, having been a diplomat,
26:24um, myself, uh, I I can attest that uh,
26:28diplomacy, uh, doesn't work if it's just
26:31words, not backed up with anything. If
26:33you're a diplomat, you've got to have
26:35the credible threat of the use of force
26:38at your back, or you have to have the
26:39credible threat of economic pressure at
26:42your back, not just carrots, uh, not not
26:45just entitlements.
26:46>> look, Iran responded in in the way that
26:49many thought they would, which was to
26:50try and, uh, you know
26:53control the Strait of Hormuz. And what
26:55the president did by putting a blockade
26:57on their blockade was their
26:59economy.
27:00Uh you know, they're losing $500 million
27:04a week.
27:05Uh
27:06and
27:08you know, their inflation is through the
27:10roof.
27:11Um and remember, we don't we don't rely
27:13on Iranian oil. We don't purchase
27:15Iranian oil. Yes, it impacts the global
27:18supply, but it speaks to a much larger
27:21issue, which is that domestic energy
27:24policy
27:25is national security.
27:27Uh which is part of the reason why I
27:29have been
27:31advocating
27:32uh vociferously to
27:35rebuild and reopen nuclear power plants
27:39across the country,
27:42increase domestic production of oil and
27:44gas.
27:46Yes, renewables, I support solar and
27:49wind and uh hydro, among others.
27:53But
27:54we need to be a net exporter of energy.
27:59We need the world purchasing
28:02US oil and gas.
28:04Uh
28:05and
28:06we want to uh
28:10uh
28:10the Iranian regime until such time as
28:14they wake up and choose to conduct
28:17themselves differently.
28:20Is that going to happen today or this
28:22year or within the next 10 years?
28:25Probably not.
28:27But the path they were on
28:29where they're mass producing ballistic
28:31missiles,
28:33uh where they've shown a clear
28:35willingness to use them,
28:37where they have enough enriched uranium
28:39to produce 11 bombs,
28:42what what exactly were we waiting for
28:44and when did people want to act?
28:47Once they use the nuclear bomb, once
28:49they
28:50you know, struck our military bases in
28:52the region, what what what did people
28:54want us to wait for?
28:57And nobody can actually answer that.
28:59Cuz they don't actually have a plan to
29:01deal with
29:02the threat from Iran. They just want to
29:04attack and criticize because they don't
29:06like the president.
29:07>> Well, I mean you raise a very
29:08interesting point because it you you the
29:10point that
29:11the Iranian regime, you know, the
29:12Iranian regime lacked a real air force,
29:15navy, army.
29:17They had air defense. It wasn't very
29:19good and it was taken out. They were
29:21relying almost entirely on what we would
29:23in the past have called asymmetric
29:24means.
29:25>> Mhm.
29:25>> Ballistic missiles, drones, and then
29:28they were trying to I I'm convinced
29:30trying to acquire a nuclear deterrent.
29:33Uh
29:34and that matches a lot with the
29:36character of the war in Ukraine where
29:38Russia is using ballistic missiles and
29:40drones against population centers in
29:41order to exert existential
29:44blackmail against not just Ukraine, but
29:47by example against, you know, some of
29:49the rest of Europe. That I think is what
29:50the Iranians were trying to replicate.
29:52>> They they were learning from the
29:53Russians.
29:54>> Yeah, exactly. They were learning from
29:55each other.
29:57>> This is fundamentally where I I if you
29:59look at what is happening
30:02the idea that we just do nothing
30:04is crazy.
30:06When you look at what happened on
30:08October 7th when you look at what the
30:11Iranian regime was doing
30:13when you look at the connection with
30:16Russia, when you look at what China is
30:18doing
30:19these are real threats
30:21>> Mhm.
30:21>> posed by this alliance.
30:24And what the president has been doing is
30:25pulling at the threads of that alliance.
30:28And
30:30you know, isolating Venezuela,
30:32reclaiming uh
30:34control of our own hemisphere
30:38uh and pushing back on the malign
30:40influence of China and Russia and Iran
30:43in our own hemisphere is critical.
30:46You know,
30:47what's happening off the coast of Africa
30:50is critically important for us to
30:53uh exert
30:55uh
30:55you know, ourselves uh especially in the
30:59Mediterranean off the off the northern
31:01coast.
31:02Um
31:03but also when you look,
31:05you know, off the eastern coast of
31:07Africa
31:08uh and you see
31:10uh the the growth in terrorism
31:14uh in
31:16uh you know, northern Africa. That is
31:18That is vital that we
31:21tackle that. Uh and so, there's a lot
31:24happening and I just I just
31:25fundamentally believe
31:27uh if we
31:29did not deal with this now,
31:31the consequence of it would be far
31:33worse. And I think that's the
31:34president's uh perspective on this.
31:37[snorts]
31:38Um yes, there is some short-term
31:40volatility. Yes, there are some
31:42short-term uh economic challenges as a
31:45result of this and obviously we want to
31:47bring gas prices down uh as quickly as
31:50possible. But again, that also points to
31:52actually having a coherent energy
31:54policy. It's why Congress should be
31:56moving to pass permitting reform
31:58>> Mhm.
31:58>> uh through uh this Congress.
32:01Um so that we can build large-scale
32:04energy. And it ties into a bigger issue,
32:07which is
32:09where where we're headed.
32:11AI,
32:14digital assets,
32:15quantum computing.
32:18China is, you know, aggressively
32:21pursuing all of this. They're
32:22aggressively ramping up their military
32:24capabilities.
32:26These are real challenges.
32:29And we have to be focused on this next
32:33battle
32:34uh and how we
32:36uh counteract that. It's why we need to
32:38get the Clarity Act done, for instance,
32:41and why the Senate needs to move on
32:42that. You want market structure done so
32:45that digital assets are operating out of
32:48the United States and not off our
32:50shores.
32:51You don't want China to have a
32:53stranglehold on digital assets.
32:56You know, AI, obviously, is is uh going
33:00to be important. How we deal with that
33:02issue. How we deal with data centers.
33:05You know,
33:06these are these are real debates and
33:08discussions that have to have to happen,
33:11and it's not just a domestic economic
33:13issue. It's a national security issue.
33:16>> People have because of the wars that
33:18we've seen, Ukraine, Iran, the Houthis,
33:21so I think people have woken up to the
33:23problem of the weapons that they're
33:26using and the need to really ramp up our
33:29capabilities to defend ourselves and
33:31work with our allies so they can defend
33:32themselves against that threat. But with
33:35your other committee hat on it for for a
33:36second, Financial Services Act, what are
33:38the weapons
33:40uh that people need to be aware of uh
33:43that could be used to attack our
33:44financial systems that we need to to do
33:47more, Congress needs to do more
33:50uh to be to defend ourselves against it?
33:52>> This is one of my biggest concerns
33:55sitting on both of these committees.
33:57Um is
33:59foreign bad actors, and specifically
34:02China, but Iran, Russia,
34:04uh using
34:06AI,
34:08using digital assets, using quantum
34:11computing as that comes online
34:14commercially,
34:15um
34:16using this to undermine our financial
34:19institutions and our capital markets.
34:22The reason the United States uh is uh
34:26the the global behemoth that it is,
34:30in addition to our military, is because
34:32of our capital markets.
34:34And
34:35China will do everything it can to
34:37undermine that. Everything.
34:40That is their their their game plan.
34:43Uh it's why they engage in intellectual
34:46property theft. It's why they
34:48use the cloud to
34:51uh you know
34:52hack and and uh you know steal. Um you
34:56know I have a bill that passed the
34:57house, the remote access security act.
35:00The Senate is sitting on it.
35:02Move it.
35:04We we have real
35:06uh
35:07issues that have to be addressed to
35:09combat uh this this economic
35:13warfare that uh China is engaged in.
35:17Uh so
35:18from the standpoint like their their
35:20military build-up is not so much about
35:24let's go you know head-to-head to war.
35:26Their military build-up is how they can
35:28use that
35:29as a hammer uh economically and how they
35:33can coerce other countries into
35:37um you know
35:40seizing control of
35:42their ports, their waterways. Um you
35:45know that's why they're so aggressively
35:46building up their naval fleets.
35:48So these are these are real issues that
35:51we have to contend with.
35:53Uh and I think
35:55from the standpoint of both financial
35:58services and foreign affairs
36:00um
36:01you know I I am very concerned over the
36:04next decade uh in this you know race for
36:08AI and the race for quantum computing
36:11um
36:12you know China China is not
36:16beholden to regulations.
36:19She doesn't worry about what the law
36:22says.
36:23Um
36:25we sit and fight
36:28not even realizing what's happening
36:30around the globe.
36:31Uh and
36:33you know,
36:34how we tackle these issues matters and
36:37and how we talk about it with the
36:38American people
36:40so that they actually understand it's a
36:42much bigger issue at play
36:44uh than just a domestic policy dispute.
36:48You know, or
36:50uh you know, you look at AI and and the
36:52use of data centers. And there's real
36:55policy uh
36:57you know, arguments to be made and
36:59there's
37:00uh
37:00a responsibility of these companies uh
37:03to pay for
37:05uh and obviously energy plays into all
37:07this.
37:08But if you have look at how China
37:11operates
37:13and the fact that they're not worried
37:14about environmental concerns, they're
37:16not worried about water consumption,
37:17they're not worried about uh
37:19regulations, they just build.
37:22They're not worried about what source of
37:23energy they use. They don't care if they
37:25use coal.
37:27And so,
37:28they are going, you know, leaps and
37:30strides ahead of us on some of these
37:32things.
37:34And there are real consequences to that
37:37from a national security standpoint. And
37:39we're not making the connection for
37:41people. We're not talking to them
37:42honestly about these issues
37:44um in in a in a way that I think the
37:47American people have to understand what
37:49is actually happening around the globe.
37:51>> Mhm.
37:52>> And the direct impact on us economically
37:55and from a national security standpoint.
37:57>> Couldn't agree with you more. We have a
37:58few more minutes. I'd like to give the
38:00audience some
38:01a chance to ask some some questions. We
38:04can start here. Uh wait for the
38:06microphone. If you could tell us your
38:07name and your affiliation.
38:09>> Sure. Um Robert Guest from The Economist
38:11magazine. Um thank you very much for
38:13that uh Congressman. Um I was wondering,
38:15there was a uh a poll released yesterday
38:18from YouGov saying that nearly half of
38:20Americans think that the war in Iran
38:23might last for a year or longer. Um and
38:26I'm wondering, given what you said about
38:27the importance of the objectives, what
38:29do you think the administration should
38:31be doing to uh prepare Americans for the
38:35possibility of a long war if you think
38:37that's what it's going to take?
38:39>> Well, look, I I don't know
38:41how long it's going to take. I don't
38:43think anybody uh has a a clear answer on
38:47that. I think
38:49uh
38:50what
38:51the objectives were very clearly at the
38:54at the onset was to degrade Iran's
38:57military capabilities,
39:00its ballistic missiles capabilities, its
39:02drone capacity,
39:03eliminate the leadership of the IRGC,
39:08uh and you know, obviously its air
39:10defenses over the last several years
39:12have been severely degraded, uh and
39:15effectively wiped out. Their naval fleet
39:18is sitting at the bottom of uh the sea.
39:21Um
39:23but
39:24they obviously are uh still hell-bent on
39:28uh holding on to power.
39:30Uh more than anything, that's what the
39:32Iranian regime, the remnants of this
39:34regime, care about.
39:35Uh and you know, the question is, can
39:38you get to a place where you have
39:41uh
39:42someone in the leadership there that you
39:44can actually negotiate diplomatically
39:47with or not.
39:49From my vantage point, the most
39:51outstanding issue is uh
39:54two things. One, the highly enriched
39:57uranium,
39:58uh and destroying it,
40:01uh
40:02or removing it.
40:04The removal, barring some negotiation,
40:07would require troops on the ground, and
40:08I'm not
40:10certainly inclined to do that and don't
40:12think that is what we should do.
40:14Um
40:16but secondarily, obviously, is the
40:17Strait of Hormuz.
40:19And I think
40:20the president
40:22rightly tried to
40:24uh
40:25you know, engage in a in a good faith
40:27negotiation
40:29uh with them on these outstanding
40:31issues.
40:33Uh but as we've seen for 47 years, then
40:35they're not trustworthy.
40:37Uh and so the only thing they will
40:39understand
40:41is
40:42military action.
40:44Uh and I think what you're seeing now is
40:46uh after uh a little bit of a uh of a
40:49reset,
40:50um action being taken
40:53to achieve
40:55the goals.
40:56Uh
40:57and further degrade their military
40:59capabilities, ensure safe passage in the
41:02Strait,
41:03uh and ultimately, uh we will see what
41:06happens with respect to the highly
41:08enriched uranium.
41:09Um
41:11obviously, nobody wants war. Nobody
41:13wants this to uh to last in perpetuity.
41:16The president has made very clear he
41:18doesn't support forever wars.
41:21I think people misunderstand something
41:23though.
41:25Forever wars does not mean you don't
41:26take military action.
41:29Being against uh you know,
41:31being in these
41:33uh
41:33wars that last years does not mean you
41:37don't use military force.
41:39Uh and the president has shown both in
41:41his first term and his second term he is
41:42willing to take uh action when it comes
41:45to protecting
41:46uh our interests abroad and at home.
41:49Uh whether it is striking uh at the
41:52cartels,
41:53uh removing
41:55uh dictators,
41:57uh or uh striking against terrorist
42:00regimes.
42:01I
42:03fundamentally, uh obviously, we want to
42:05see uh the the war come to an end, but I
42:07think it is imperative that
42:10the
42:11uh goals be met. And so,
42:14you know, I think it's important for the
42:15administration, the president, and
42:18Secretary Rubio and and Hegseth to,
42:22you know, do a do a a level check with
42:26the American people
42:27and to explain where we are, what has
42:32been accomplished to date, and what the
42:35remaining objectives are so that the
42:39American people fully understand
42:41where we are in this moment. I also
42:43think it is imperative
42:45for our allies,
42:47especially our European allies,
42:51to recognize
42:53where we are in this moment. And as we
42:57talked about earlier,
42:59um
43:00you know, the importance
43:02of
43:04looking at this holistically and not in
43:07a silo.
43:09And ensuring safe passage in the strait
43:13um
43:14is to their long-term benefit.
43:18And they should recognize that.
43:20>> Okay, we've got 3 minutes to go. I want
43:22to take two last questions. I'm going to
43:24bundle them. So, if we could go back
43:26here and please make the identify
43:28yourself for me. Question very short.
43:29>> Yeah, Brian Katulis, Middle East
43:30Institute. Thanks for your leadership
43:32and your voice on all of this.
43:34Um and thanks also for um co-sponsoring
43:37legislation with Democrats like Josh
43:39Gottheimer. Should you, assuming you get
43:41reelected, do you see any possibility
43:43there for rebuilding the vital center on
43:45national security? Or do you think it's
43:47just a hopeless case where we just beat
43:49each other up on a on on a partisan
43:52basis on national security?
43:53>> Okay, and last question from here?
43:55>> Um William Lawrence, National Council on
43:57US Arab Relations. Um other than the
43:59nuclear piece and the Hormuz piece, what
44:02would an ideal
44:04eventual negotiated deal with Iran look
44:07like.
44:08Second topic, um I understand your
44:10criticism of the other side, but what
44:12what on war powers and congressional
44:14oversight of military actions, what is
44:15the optimal
44:17formula?
44:18>> Got it.
44:19Uh
44:20So, Josh Gottheimer's
44:22my best friend in Congress. I say it
44:25often and and you know, we talk almost
44:28every day and work together on a myriad
44:31of issues.
44:32Um
44:33You know, obviously uh the the the the
44:36the base politics have driven the two
44:39parties further and further apart,
44:42um unfortunately. And
44:46gerrymandering certainly has has made it
44:48very difficult because there's very few
44:51seats that are competitive, which means
44:53there's less
44:55uh
44:56reward structure, if you will, for
44:59working across the aisle.
45:02Um you know, because people are more
45:04focused on their
45:06primaries. They're more focused on
45:08appealing to the base than they are
45:09appealing to the middle.
45:11I'm in a seat that has 80,000 more
45:13Democrats than Republicans.
45:16Now,
45:17obviously, from the standpoint of trying
45:19to win an election, you have to be able
45:21to build a coalition,
45:22but it's
45:24in my nature and it's who I am
45:26to want to find compromise and to want
45:29to actually work with people
45:31on all sides.
45:32Uh it's why I worked with Joe Biden and
45:36why I worked with Donald Trump. I mean,
45:37the the idea that you can just say, "I'm
45:39not going to work with that person." and
45:42assume that you're going to be able to
45:43get anything done
45:45is idiotic.
45:46And yet, this town is filled with people
45:48saying, "I won't work with them because
45:50I don't like them."
45:51you.
45:52Like
45:54it's so stupid.
45:55But, this is where we are in this
45:57moment.
45:58So, from that standpoint,
46:00I think we are at a really sad point in
46:03that farm policy was kind of one of
46:05those areas where people kind of checked
46:08their party politics to a to a larger
46:11degree
46:12and found ways to to really work
46:14together. The Foreign Affairs Committee
46:17broadly speaking has always been pretty
46:19bipartisan.
46:22I think today's vote on
46:24support for Israel is going to be very
46:26telling.
46:28I mean, you're looking at upwards of 150
46:30Democrats, maybe
46:32voting to cut off funding to Israel,
46:34which is insane.
46:36I don't think they actually understand
46:38what the funding is. I don't think they
46:39actually understand the consequence on
46:41our own military, but
46:43putting that aside, we've allowed
46:45party-based politics to to Trump
46:50pun intended everything else.
46:52And that's that's a real shame. So, do I
46:54think we can get back to a a better
46:57place? Yes.
46:58But it requires people to actually, you
47:00know, grow a spine and and start pushing
47:02back against the Looney Tunes.
47:05Um
47:06as far as
47:08uh
47:09you know
47:10war powers
47:12and, you know,
47:14what what should be done? Look, Congress
47:17hasn't declared war since World War II.
47:20I think this entire debate that has gone
47:24on uh has been inconsistent and
47:27hypocritical at best.
47:30Um I do think
47:32the War Powers Act should be reformed. I
47:34don't think as it's currently written
47:36and structured it actually really makes
47:38sense.
47:39Um I think Congress absolutely has a
47:41role. I think Congress
47:43certainly from an oversight capability
47:46and from
47:47uh a constitutional responsibility of
47:49declaring war, yes, Congress ac-
47:52absolutely has a role.
47:54But the president
47:55is the commander-in-chief and the
47:57president has the authorities
47:59uh
48:00to act.
48:01And presidents of both parties
48:05uh have done so.
48:06And so, my point to all of my colleagues
48:09is be consistent in your position.
48:13Um
48:14I believe Joe Biden had the authorities
48:16to act and take numerous strikes against
48:20Syria and uh
48:22you know, Iraq and
48:24uh
48:25you know, other other areas in the
48:27Middle East in which he
48:28took action, and I also believe Barack
48:30Obama did.
48:32People have to be consistent on that. Do
48:34I think the War Powers Act should be
48:35reformed and that there should be a a
48:37little more teeth in terms of
48:39uh
48:40you know, how it is structured? Yeah, I
48:42do.
48:43I think as it's written, it really does
48:45not work. And I think obviously you've
48:48seen presidents of both parties
48:50push back against it
48:52uh for obvious reasons. Um
48:56And your first
48:57>> The rest of [snorts] the Iranian other
48:58than
48:58>> Oh, what would it look Look, I I think
49:01fundamentally um
49:03the terror proxy issue and and financing
49:07of terror proxies has to be addressed.
49:09Um
49:11No sanctions relief
49:14uh should come
49:16uh unless the enriched uranium, the
49:18Strait of Hormuz, and the financing of
49:21terror proxies is addressed.
49:23Uh
49:23and certainly unfreezing of of assets. I
49:26wouldn't I wouldn't uh ever send them
49:29cash.
49:30Um you know, uh not 1 cent. Uh so,
49:35there's
49:37you know, there's there's a lot of
49:38challenges ahead. I did not like uh
49:41much of the language in the MOU,
49:44but I understood the objective was to
49:45get to a final agreement, if you could.
49:50It's clear with these folks that is that
49:52is uh almost an an impossibility. Uh so
49:56the question really becomes
49:58you know, what actions must be taken
50:00militarily to force
50:03uh the the end result that you want.
50:07>> Mhm. All right, and we will leave it
50:09there. I know you have to you have to
50:11get to your day job.
50:12>> I do.
50:12>> So,
50:13but thank you Colonel for the work.

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