The Fundamentals of Bitcoin’s Value with Phil Geiger — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:02why do you love the Huddle wave
- 0:05the Huddle wave is the history of
- 0:09Bitcoin and its decentralization over
- 0:13time
- 0:14so it's a very complicated chart there's
- 0:17a lot going on but what's amazing about
- 0:19it is you get to see exactly how people
- 0:23have been behaving with their Bitcoin on
- 0:26the base layer so what we're looking at
- 0:28is the black line is the US dollar price
- 0:31uh-huh
- 0:33all those colored lines are different
- 0:36age bands of Bitcoin that have been
- 0:40living in Bitcoin addresses so all
- 0:42Bitcoin live in addresses tracked by the
- 0:45blockchain which is a database of all
- 0:46the transactions do we know which ones
- 0:48are lost here
- 0:49we can speculate the ones in the upper
- 0:52right hand corner the purple and blue
- 0:54ones are very likely lost because those
- 0:57Bitcoin have been sitting at addresses
- 0:59for longer than 10 years that's the
- 1:01purple band the blue band is seven to
- 1:04ten years and so it's very likely that a
- 1:07majority of those are lost in that kind
- 1:09of correlates with what people believe
- 1:11to be lost so in about four four million
- 1:13right yeah something like that two to
- 1:15four million so yeah what I really like
- 1:16about it is you can you can see people's
- 1:19behaviors during the the pumps and the
- 1:22dumps so
- 1:23um during like the 2017-2018 run up to
- 1:2720K you see some of those upper bands
- 1:30starting to contract right the the light
- 1:32green band which is the people who've
- 1:34been holding Bitcoin for three to five
- 1:35years uh sorry the lighter green is two
- 1:37to three years the darker green is three
- 1:39to five years you start to see those
- 1:40getting smaller and smaller and that's
- 1:41when those longer term huddlers likely
- 1:44started selling their Bitcoin when
- 1:46Bitcoin hit 20K they're like wow this is
- 1:49crazy I've been holding thing since
- 1:50eighty dollars I'm gonna you know sell
- 1:52it for some other currency and to
- 1:55improve my life
- 1:56but what else was that you buy a house
- 1:59get a car buy some chairs finally the
- 2:03what's really cool about right now
- 2:07um so all the way to the right side of
- 2:08the chart is
- 2:10our run up to 69k what we didn't see was
- 2:15the large the the older age bands
- 2:19Contracting as much so if you look at
- 2:20the light green band and you look at the
- 2:22dark green band they didn't really
- 2:24contract they kind of stayed uh stable
- 2:27and then now over the last month or so
- 2:30they're actually starting to grow which
- 2:31means in my opinion that the people who
- 2:34bought when Bitcoin was 700
- 2:38were pretty unimpressed by this run to
- 2:4169k they're like I'm not I'm not selling
- 2:43my Bitcoin at 69k this thing's going to
- 2:45a million or whatever uh and so they
- 2:48didn't sell so all of the all of the uh
- 2:52pump to 69k and the dump now down to 20K
- 2:55looks to me like it's come out of the
- 2:58newer Bitcoin so the lower half of the
- 3:00chart the yellow the orange the red and
- 3:04those are all the the d-gens at coinbase
- 3:06uh gambling on board apes and uh you
- 3:09know selling their Bitcoin for or Luna
- 3:12and then losing their shirts so the
- 3:15long-term hodlers here have been I would
- 3:18say bored by this last run up and just
- 3:21no I agree I've been bored by it 69k
- 3:24yeah dude we were promised like 100k
- 3:28200k 300K
- 3:30I was promised a foundational reset of
- 3:33the entire global economy
- 3:35uh that's why I'm here uh the the price
- 3:38in in dollars is is just kind of fun
- 3:41it's something that I like to uh pay
- 3:43attention to just because I you know I
- 3:45work in Bitcoin full time and definitely
- 3:47impacts our business but for me I'm here
- 3:51for the Long Haul and my utxos are
- 3:53starting to get uh older and older and
- 3:56older and they will continue to get
- 3:57older do you know what else this looks
- 3:59like
- 4:01remember painting by numbers yeah
- 4:04it's like this looks like right you're
- 4:06gonna feel you're gonna paint a like a a
- 4:09rocky Outback
- 4:11and then you're gonna get catch the
- 4:12forest in the background in the sky yeah
- 4:14it's the Bob Ross of this beautiful
- 4:16Bitcoin you know just happy little bands
- 4:18yeah I love like little utxo bands so
- 4:21what happens if say
- 4:24say I had like some Bitcoin and cool
- 4:26storage and I signed up to uh Unchained
- 4:30and set up a multi-sig yeah those coins
- 4:33move
- 4:37um but then so you have to have coins so
- 4:39what what you do when you sign up for
- 4:40multi-sig is my team the concierge team
- 4:43at Unchained will send you Hardware
- 4:45wallets we'll walk you through setting
- 4:47up the hardware wallets building the
- 4:49most secure type of Bitcoin address
- 4:50which is the multi-sig address and then
- 4:52once you have that it's your choice you
- 4:54can either buy Bitcoin from us into your
- 4:56address or if you've purchased Bitcoin
- 4:58somewhere else you can then move it to
- 4:59your address I didn't ask for a sales
- 5:01pitch did I this is a sales pitch come
- 5:03on man you laid this one up dude I was
- 5:05saying with this I would say if I move
- 5:07my coins yeah then
- 5:10are they considered moved here yeah so
- 5:12if you have if you have coins at
- 5:14coinbase that's this is what I was
- 5:16trying to get to is yeah if if you have
- 5:17coins of coinbase and you're like I need
- 5:19to improve my security you would have to
- 5:21move your coins into a new address which
- 5:23would reset uh the age of them right so
- 5:26this is entirely accurate because it
- 5:28could be people just moving coins well
- 5:30it is entirely accurate for the movement
- 5:32of all the coins now the rationale
- 5:34behind the movement we don't know for
- 5:36certain exactly so there's a lot of
- 5:38speculation but I just think it's cool
- 5:40to see how and you can start to see the
- 5:43waves of adoption over time and what's
- 5:47interesting about right now is there's
- 5:50never been a time in bitcoin's history
- 5:52where the Bitcoin has been sitting for a
- 5:55majority of the Bitcoin has been sitting
- 5:56for this long so really yeah so if you
- 5:58look at the yellow band that's the one
- 6:00year age band uh it's very thick and
- 6:03it's starting to take up a majority like
- 6:05everything above that has been sitting
- 6:07for many years it's not going anywhere
- 6:08yeah that's the one year band and and
- 6:10you can just see it kind of getting
- 6:12lower and lower on the overall chart and
- 6:15that's because now about 70 percent of
- 6:18all Bitcoin has just been sitting for I
- 6:21think either longer than six months or
- 6:22longer than a year it's very fascinating
- 6:25um so all of the churn and the the price
- 6:28uh speculation
- 6:31is happening with in my opinion exchange
- 6:34coins yeah for the most part it's like a
- 6:37smaller and smaller number of exchange
- 6:39coins are what's causing all of these
- 6:41price fluctuations so how much do you
- 6:43think uh we were affected by what
- 6:44happened with Terra Luna three arrows
- 6:47Celsius do you think that kind of
- 6:50do you think I destroyed a bull market
- 6:52that was going to continue
- 6:54I don't think so I think those you think
- 6:55we were done I think those primarily
- 6:57were destroyed by the Federal Reserve
- 6:58raising rates okay like I think all of
- 7:01at this point all of crypto is uh low
- 7:05rate you know zero percent rate uh Mal
- 7:09investment and as soon as people start
- 7:13um charging to you know loan you money
- 7:15that's when all these crazy
- 7:17malinvestments stop making sense so
- 7:19anything I mean yes the the Luna stuff
- 7:23the 3ac uh broader crypto is really
- 7:26reliant on people having way too much uh
- 7:29cash on hand so that they can make crazy
- 7:31speculative Investments and that's one
- 7:34of the primary differences between
- 7:35crypto and Bitcoin is Bitcoin is another
- 7:37currency that you can save in for the
- 7:38long term which is what we're seeing
- 7:40here a lot of people are saving in it
- 7:41for the long term whereas 3ac Terra Luna
- 7:45those are all you know short-term
- 7:48speculative you know in a lot of ways
- 7:51Ponzi scheme Celsius
- 7:53what was interesting about well you know
- 7:56the Luna stuff is kind of interesting as
- 7:58well because it's like this was marketed
- 8:00as a stable coin right so there's a lot
- 8:02of people out there who are like or
- 8:03maybe not Luna whatever
- 8:07uh there's a lot of stable coins out
- 8:10there and people are kind of interested
- 8:12in them because they're like oh it's
- 8:13helping introduce crypto to the broader
- 8:15world it's helping to give
- 8:19um you know people without access to the
- 8:21dollar access to the dollar
- 8:23and in theory that might be true but in
- 8:25practice what we see is these stable
- 8:27coins are anything but stable right
- 8:29they're centralized entities that have
- 8:32lots of additional risks so you mean the
- 8:35algorithmic ones both but even tether as
- 8:38yeah I mean they they just keep hopping
- 8:40around to different jurisdictions trying
- 8:42to find uh a place that they can you
- 8:44know
- 8:45issue their tether at some point I think
- 8:48they're going to get clamped down on
- 8:50there's like a systemic risk to tether
- 8:51because it's centralized so at some
- 8:54point I think they're going to be shut
- 8:56down and then there's you know your
- 8:58stable coin is nothing it's not stable
- 8:59yeah that's a shame because uh Alex
- 9:02clerstein spends a lot of time
- 9:04explaining how useful these digital
- 9:06dollars on a black on a blockchain are
- 9:09you know and I get it they are useful
- 9:11but they are also very risky yeah and
- 9:15I actually think so a lot of people look
- 9:17at Bitcoin they're like it's very
- 9:19volatile it's very risky Bitcoin in my
- 9:21opinion is extremely low risk you know
- 9:24pretty much exactly what you're getting
- 9:25you're getting X percentage of 21
- 9:27million you can hold the keys to your
- 9:30Bitcoin and you can run a node and
- 9:32verify and nobody can inflate the supply
- 9:36so I don't think it's very risky once
- 9:38you kind of understand what it is how to
- 9:40use it extremely low risk very high
- 9:42volatility but I don't think volatility
- 9:44is necessarily risk on the other side
- 9:47well that depends on your lifestyle who
- 9:49you are where you live you know if you
- 9:51are living in a poor country and you
- 9:53have very limited money that is a
- 9:55significant risk to your ability to feed
- 9:59your family it's not a risk though it's
- 10:01like it the volatility is maybe not
- 10:03palatable to you like you shouldn't go
- 10:05out and slam all your life savings into
- 10:07this really volatile asset yeah if you
- 10:09can't handle the volatility of course
- 10:10but if you understand that there's
- 10:12volatility then it's no but it presents
- 10:14you a risk with being able to afford
- 10:16like the volatility presents a risk to
- 10:18your ability to afford what you need for
- 10:19your family it's not that the asset
- 10:21itself is a risk but the volatility
- 10:23introduces risk into your life
- 10:25I think that that's assuming that they
- 10:28need to have it right now well most yeah
- 10:32not most I wouldn't know the numbers but
- 10:34I would expect a large number of people
- 10:36perhaps billions live hand to mouth yeah
- 10:39and they're the people we most want to
- 10:41get out the situation they're in because
- 10:43they're either living in jurisdictions
- 10:44with high inflation authoritarian
- 10:46regimes uh uh restrictions on what they
- 10:49can do and how they can trade yeah so
- 10:52they're probably some of the people need
- 10:53it most definitely but
- 10:55their ability to start using it and
- 10:58accepting it and having it in their life
- 10:59it just there is a risk you know if
- 11:01you're living hand to mouth and if
- 11:03you're living in like turkey you've got
- 11:0480 inflation and your options are like
- 11:06Bitcoin whatever the currency in Turkey
- 11:08is the lower is it yeah or the like a US
- 11:10dollar stable coin like the choice is
- 11:12pretty obvious yeah I mean in in those
- 11:14what is it depends what's it what's the
- 11:16obvious choice if you're living hand to
- 11:17mouth
- 11:18so it's the dollar yeah yeah
- 11:21I think that would make the most sense
- 11:24for somebody who is experiencing like
- 11:26hyperinflation right now but again like
- 11:29that's that's a cohort of people who
- 11:31have been completely screwed by Central
- 11:33Banking like the absolute destruction of
- 11:36civilization in their society is because
- 11:39of Central Banking destroying the value
- 11:42of their life savings so like while we
- 11:46do want to help while Bitcoin can help
- 11:48these people over the long term the
- 11:51damage has already kind of been done to
- 11:52them and so they need an immediate
- 11:55uh solution right they need something
- 11:57they can't
- 11:58find a solution that's going to help
- 11:59them over 10 years they need to find
- 12:02food today and tomorrow for their family
- 12:04and so you have to look at something
- 12:06else but interestingly enough like the
- 12:09US dollar right now is experiencing
- 12:11seriously High inflation right so yeah
- 12:13even even the dollar is becoming a
- 12:16riskier and riskier thing to hold
- 12:17because it's eight percent inflation
- 12:19that's the official term right in
- 12:21reality it's double digits yeah it
- 12:23depends again it depends where you are I
- 12:24mean the uh the dollar has dropped uh
- 12:27from 1 38 to the pound so it's 112 I
- 12:31think today and it got as low as 105. so
- 12:36um it's a better asset it was a better
- 12:38asset holder than the pound
- 12:40the king's pound
- 12:42I guess as well it depends how quickly
- 12:44you're turning around your money if you
- 12:45turn around your money really quickly
- 12:46Bitcoin volatility doesn't really matter
- 12:48well so when I was with the crypto
- 12:50bastardo in Venezuela he holds Bitcoin
- 12:54and all he does is every week transfers
- 12:56the amount he needs in Bolivar out and
- 12:58he would explain to me like he says even
- 13:00even when the price of Bitcoins drop in
- 13:02I'm going up in terms of the Bolivar
- 13:04because inflation is so high so there
- 13:06are scenarios to work through it sure um
- 13:09but I think I think from a high level
- 13:12perspective like the whole global
- 13:14economy think of it as the Titanic right
- 13:17uh it's starting to break apart and
- 13:20there's parts that have already broken
- 13:21off in our sinking and then there's a
- 13:23few people kind of left and there's this
- 13:25life raft called Bitcoin and uh you're
- 13:27in like a stormy choppy sea and Bitcoins
- 13:30very volatile and it's bouncing all over
- 13:31the place for the people who are still
- 13:33on the ship like that might be a good
- 13:34option or you should start exploring the
- 13:37life raft for the people who are already
- 13:38sinking like
- 13:40I don't know you have to figure out your
- 13:42hand to mouth at that point like you're
- 13:44scrambling it's a different situation so
- 13:45that's
- 13:46you know while I really want Bitcoin to
- 13:49and I think Bitcoin will deliver
- 13:50property rights and value to all 8
- 13:52billion people in the world but it's not
- 13:54gonna solve all their problems today and
- 13:57what we can do is people who still have
- 13:59resources who are still able to uh save
- 14:03in it should start saving in it because
- 14:05that's when um you can actually protect
- 14:06your purchasing power and avoid syncing
- 14:08did you see the Bangladesh news today no
- 14:11search for Bangladesh blackouts this is
- 14:14[ __ ] crazy
- 14:16I think this is just another signal
- 14:19because when you said the the Titanic
- 14:21it's starting to break apart you wait
- 14:23till you see this most Bangladesh left
- 14:26without power after the National Grid
- 14:27failure so large waves of Bangladesh
- 14:30were left without electricity on Tuesday
- 14:31of a partial grid failure government
- 14:33official said adding the authorities
- 14:35work to gradually restore power to the
- 14:37country of 168 million people
- 14:4075 to 80 of Bangladesh appear experience
- 14:44blackouts
- 14:45uh I and I think it was because the
- 14:48problem there in sporting actual gas and
- 14:51the increase in the price of natural gas
- 14:52wow I mean Bangladesh is a poor country
- 14:54can afford it that's like a whole
- 14:55country going offline of a population
- 14:59over doubled you can obviously
- 15:00population UK 72 million yeah that's
- 15:03more than double the population of the
- 15:05UK it's going [ __ ] offline yeah it
- 15:07says here 96 million people lost power
- 15:09that's more than the UK that's insane I
- 15:12think Bitcoin has really taught me two
- 15:14very important lessons one don't [ __ ]
- 15:16with the money two don't [ __ ] with the
- 15:18energy yes it's crazy to me that in 2022
- 15:22we have entire countries of 100 plus
- 15:25million people in the darkness when
- 15:28electricity was invented or discovered
- 15:30you know
- 15:31over 100 years ago I think in what the
- 15:331800s 1700s maybe 1800s maybe and we've
- 15:36been innovating since then but over the
- 15:39last maybe a few decades I feel like
- 15:40we've gotten significantly worse at
- 15:43energy production and power delivery and
- 15:46so on well what would Ben say that is
- 15:48where would he where would he go and
- 15:50point on a chart I can guess which year
- 15:521971 yeah ah he would go and point to
- 15:551971 but like quite interestingly it was
- 15:57Elon Musk who came out and said well we
- 16:00went to the moon in 1968 we've not been
- 16:02back and I don't know the what year did
- 16:04you go to the we didn't go you didn't
- 16:06invite us yeah you guys weren't invited
- 16:07that makes sense yeah we didn't go I've
- 16:09seen what you guys do at stag news we
- 16:12probably sent a probe up to the moon at
- 16:15some point with the with our German
- 16:18friends or something the last mission
- 16:19was 1972. yeah 1972 and but also people
- 16:23rightly pointed out uh when when was
- 16:26Concord when did Concord launch 80s
- 16:30I don't know I know introduce 76. 1976
- 16:33of Concord was introduced two years
- 16:35before I was born and I'm an old [ __ ]
- 16:39um and we haven't had like they
- 16:42decommissioned them after the French the
- 16:44Air France one crashed in was it in the
- 16:46UK it was in Paris it was going to the
- 16:48UK that was it weird plane to get from I
- 16:51take about three minutes
- 16:53um but yeah so they decommissioned them
- 16:55and we haven't had a uh super selling a
- 16:58check since it's crazy we're going
- 17:00backwards in a lot of ways we are and
- 17:03at the same time we're seeing uh
- 17:05inequality around the world increase and
- 17:08we're seeing power centralize yep and I
- 17:11think that's the Fiat system so don't
- 17:14[ __ ] with the money don't [ __ ] with the
- 17:15energy don't [ __ ] with the food as well
- 17:17yeah that's energy
- 17:19human energy yeah yeah I guess so
- 17:22um now I completely agree with you I
- 17:24mean we are I've never known a time like
- 17:26this in the UK it's
- 17:28it's weird and a little bit scary
- 17:31um just seeing what people are facing in
- 17:32terms of their energy costs how we can
- 17:35suddenly go from a point where people's
- 17:37energies bills a thousand pound a year
- 17:39to five thousand pound a year which
- 17:41would be for some people 50 of their
- 17:43income yeah to just be able to do that
- 17:46in a matter of month it's super scary
- 17:47there's nothing like that has ever
- 17:48happened in mind I can't remember
- 17:49anything like that it's a travesty it's
- 17:51it's basic uh basic things to power your
- 17:56Society right literally to power it like
- 17:59you need to have the lights on to have
- 18:01functional hospitals you need to have
- 18:03lights on to stay warm in the winter
- 18:05just basic necessities
- 18:08and issues that we've solved 100 plus
- 18:11years ago are rearing their ugly hand
- 18:14head again as
- 18:17the currencies start breaking down well
- 18:19there's a there's a second layer to that
- 18:20as well because there's the lack of
- 18:22innovation say with nuclear I think most
- 18:24people are generally agreed that
- 18:26um the decommission of nuclear plants a
- 18:28lack of investment in nuclear plants Was
- 18:29Naive uh the green lobby was allowed to
- 18:33um
- 18:33uh essentially uh petition for these you
- 18:36know this kind of anti-nuclear
- 18:39um agenda uh following Fukushima and you
- 18:42know various other things so I think
- 18:44that's one thing but another thing in
- 18:46the UK is that we sold off
- 18:49all our energy to the free market to be
- 18:51developed and whether or not you are uh
- 18:54believe in the nation state it is useful
- 18:57for a nation state to have energy
- 18:58security I mean the US kind of has it
- 19:01because you produce a lot of oil we
- 19:03don't produce a lot of oil we produce
- 19:05some we don't really have energy
- 19:06security we're buying all our energy
- 19:08from across Europe at the moment yeah
- 19:09what do you mean when you say that the
- 19:11UK sold off their energy to the yeah so
- 19:14so I we import a lot of our energy yeah
- 19:16that's just the way it is we have like
- 19:18what three nuclear plants
- 19:20is it one in the Hinckley there's one in
- 19:23seller field as well yeah like we have
- 19:25like three nuclear plants we we don't
- 19:27you know we used to produce most of our
- 19:29energy I think it was coal based yeah
- 19:31but as we closed down the yeah rightly
- 19:34so because
- 19:35coal is the disgusting and it could have
- 19:37been replaced with nuclear it's called
- 19:38more disgusting than freezing
- 19:41yeah but what I'm saying is there was
- 19:43there's there was no need to have to
- 19:44make that trade-off it you know if
- 19:46you're gonna if you're gonna close down
- 19:48your coal plants or replace them with
- 19:49nuclear that makes sense it's cleaner
- 19:51but who was closing down the coal plants
- 19:53and and like who was selling it I mean
- 19:55was it these private companies or was it
- 19:57oh there's a government no it's a
- 19:58government does the government closed
- 20:00down all the mines in there it wasn't
- 20:01under like I mean I don't know much
- 20:03about this yeah it's the I mean the same
- 20:04thing as like the Dutch uh Farmers right
- 20:06now right it's like the Dutch government
- 20:08is saying oh we want to we gotta cut
- 20:10nitrogen to meet these X Y and Z climate
- 20:12goals and uh
- 20:15it's not the farmers that are saying hey
- 20:17we need to really cut nitrogen they're
- 20:18saying hey we can't produce enough food
- 20:19now and so we're gonna go on strike so
- 20:21it's the same thing it sounds similar to
- 20:23me in the UK you guys had energy
- 20:25security and then some bureaucrat
- 20:28decided in order to meet or achieve some
- 20:32goals which in hindsight probably were
- 20:35not achieved we're going to shut down
- 20:37the production of energy and X Y or Z
- 20:39fashion because it's you know it's not
- 20:41fashionable today and Marty Ben would
- 20:42say those [ __ ] Central planners and
- 20:44he's right and now someone's being paid
- 20:45to per to pause the closure what's this
- 20:48closure of coal Power Station set to be
- 20:50delayed oh so we've still got Coal Power
- 20:52to present UK blackouts they're probably
- 20:54spinning up coal at this point probably
- 20:56they probably are yeah they probably are
- 20:59um what I what I've also kind of
- 21:00realized or the way I think about energy
- 21:03is
- 21:05while we might not personally like one
- 21:08form of energy production over the other
- 21:11the pricing mechanism typically does a
- 21:14really good job of demonstrating or
- 21:16elevating the type of energy that is the
- 21:18most efficient so what Bitcoin uh has
- 21:22taught me in Bitcoin mining in
- 21:24particular is that Bitcoin mining is
- 21:26actually a component of the energy
- 21:28production industry to help make energy
- 21:30production as efficient as possible and
- 21:33that is the most environmentally
- 21:36friendly if we're producing
- 21:38energy efficiently
- 21:41than we are not wasting anything right
- 21:43it's not inefficient
- 21:45um and the pricing system typically does
- 21:47a good job of demonstrating which is the
- 21:49most efficient which is the cheapest so
- 21:52even though but not the most
- 21:54environmentally friendly uh I do think
- 21:56it is the most environmentally friendly
- 21:58because
- 22:00if it's really expensive to produce this
- 22:02energy then you have a lot of external
- 22:04inputs going into it you have teams of
- 22:06scientists you have all kinds of
- 22:08manufacturing and different production
- 22:09facilities you have many orders of
- 22:11effects Beyond just the actual burning
- 22:14of the coal whatever you you mean the
- 22:17whole supply chain to allow absolutely
- 22:19right but there's different but there's
- 22:21different types of uh ways you can
- 22:24measure environmental friendliness so
- 22:26for example if you are one of those
- 22:29people that believes which I can't
- 22:30believe I've been saying about this but
- 22:32uh increasing carbon in the atmosphere
- 22:34is you know uh will warm the planet and
- 22:37leads to a change in climate which I do
- 22:39believe
- 22:41um that may be it may be preferable to
- 22:44have something that has leads to more
- 22:45e-waste rather than increasing carbon in
- 22:48the atmosphere both are environmental
- 22:50issues he waste is an environmental
- 22:52issue
- 22:53um carbon is an environmental issue but
- 22:55you might have a preference over one
- 22:56because you know E-Waste okay might be
- 22:58preferable to bury E-Waste or looking to
- 23:01recycling over increasing carbon in the
- 23:03atmosphere which has potentially
- 23:05catastrophic effects but you're assuming
- 23:07that the production of the E-Waste
- 23:09doesn't increase the carbon in the
- 23:10atmosphere yeah so if you want to go
- 23:11like full like yeah you but you have to
- 23:15like map out the entire supply chain
- 23:16yeah and that's a lot of work that's why
- 23:18we have to think from first principles
- 23:19yeah we have to think about what's a
- 23:21signal that we can use to actually tell
- 23:25us what is the most efficient form of
- 23:26energy production it's typically what is
- 23:29the most what is the cheapest what is
- 23:30the most affordable
- 23:32I would want to know if someone's
- 23:33actually done the work that correlates
- 23:36uh the the price of energy production
- 23:39with the total or the the percentage of
- 23:43uh increase of carbon well I think that
- 23:45there's a lot of people who have done a
- 23:47lot of work on that and they have come
- 23:49to decide that you know and I'm not
- 23:51trying to pick on any one form of energy
- 23:52yeah but say like coal and gas and oil
- 23:55are bad and solar winds nuclear Etc et
- 24:00cetera are good
- 24:01but the problem is since Central
- 24:05planners have pushed us towards One
- 24:06Direction
- 24:07now we have people who are spending a
- 24:10majority of their income trying to heat
- 24:11their home
- 24:13so there's unintended outcomes to any
- 24:16sort of like centralized planning that
- 24:18pushes you in one direction or another
- 24:19when the market is trying to tell you
- 24:21hey actually right now natural gas is
- 24:24the most efficient way to power our
- 24:25homes or oil or
- 24:28hydropower I'm not trying to pick one or
- 24:30the other but just saying that the
- 24:31pricing mechanism when there's no
- 24:33subsidies involved does a really good
- 24:35job of telling people this is the most
- 24:37efficient type of energy that we can be
- 24:39using today sure I'm still not buying
- 24:40the the price dictates there's a
- 24:43correlation with carbon on the price on
- 24:45the entire well I just needs I need a
- 24:46receipt we can look at we can we can and
- 24:49this is maybe the Austrian uh economic
- 24:53style of thinking and I consider myself
- 24:55a student of Austrian economics but if
- 24:59you if you think about this scenario of
- 25:01a Bitcoin miner right you have an Asic
- 25:04chip
- 25:05you want to go you want to be profitable
- 25:07you want to earn Bitcoin you need to go
- 25:09find the cheapest form of energy right
- 25:11so the cheapest form of energy is where
- 25:13you plug in your minor and you're
- 25:14profitable even if you have a chip
- 25:16that's you know an S9 which is like five
- 25:17years old at this point uh
- 25:20and so I do think that
- 25:22Bitcoin is a really good uh
- 25:26it's a good teacher it tells us okay
- 25:27this right now is the most efficient way
- 25:30that we can be capturing energy so it's
- 25:33like
- 25:34um
- 25:35you know before China banned Bitcoin
- 25:37mining the miners were migrating with
- 25:41the the Rainy Seasons because China had
- 25:43these massive hydroelectric dams that
- 25:45during the Rainy seasons were way over
- 25:48producing electricity they were just
- 25:50wasting energy that they had captured
- 25:52and Bitcoin helps us to actually capture
- 25:55that energy monetize it so that these
- 25:57companies can invest in more efficient
- 25:59energy production so yeah I just think
- 26:02that the pricing mechanism does the best
- 26:03job of demonstrating what's the most
- 26:05efficient no I agree with that but I
- 26:07fundamentally agree with that I just
- 26:08don't think it correlates to carbon in
- 26:11the atmosphere I just think it's the
- 26:13cheapest to produce
- 26:14I think it correlates the carbon in the
- 26:16atmosphere because again the people who
- 26:19are working on the other types of energy
- 26:22nuclear like it might take 50 000 people
- 26:25working 10 years to build one nuclear
- 26:29plant how much carbon have all those
- 26:31people been off-putting for 10 years
- 26:33before we can now turn on our nuclear
- 26:36plant and start seeing Zero carbon
- 26:38emissions
- 26:39like it's nothing exists in a bubble no
- 26:42of course but like somebody has to do
- 26:44the work there has to be receipts for
- 26:45this otherwise it's speculation like if
- 26:47there are no receipts for this or
- 26:48somebody's done the work the pricing
- 26:50mechanism is the receipt dude do you
- 26:53understand what I'm saying here Danny I
- 26:55do understand but I think I think you're
- 26:57talking at Cross purposes on some of
- 26:58this because I think like Phil's point
- 27:00is if you charge a Tesla from like an
- 27:02electricity that's generated by Cold
- 27:04power plant like what you're really
- 27:05doing right no no no no a bunch of heavy
- 27:08metals you've like Tesla employs you
- 27:10know 100 000 people and they've been
- 27:12engineering these cars for a decade
- 27:15and then you plug it in like
- 27:18yeah but no no I understand what you
- 27:20what you're saying is that the when
- 27:22people are looking at the energy mix and
- 27:24looking at Green energy they aren't
- 27:26considering the entire supply chain okay
- 27:28but or the outcome even I would say like
- 27:32the outcome is is where is what we're
- 27:34stuck with right now where we have a
- 27:36global energy crisis Bangladesh was left
- 27:38without power for 168 million people and
- 27:42I imagine you know I'm not familiar with
- 27:43Bangladeshi energy policies but I
- 27:46imagine that they're playing the same
- 27:47game as many of the other countries are
- 27:49which is trying to go One Direction or
- 27:51another right but sorry but the thing
- 27:53I'm not buying is is the lowest price
- 27:56uh most efficient energy production is
- 27:58the one that produces the least carbon
- 28:00like where is the correlation
- 28:03I think it gets even more confused when
- 28:05you add in like government grants and
- 28:07subsidies of course but but again we're
- 28:10confused the the question I'm asking is
- 28:13how does the uh efficiency of production
- 28:17dictate the
- 28:20um the level of carbon that's produced I
- 28:21don't see the correlation yeah I don't I
- 28:23don't think that there's a way so I
- 28:25don't think any carbon measures are
- 28:26accurate today
- 28:28first of all like because how do you
- 28:29actually so I was thinking about this uh
- 28:32the other day there was a which club it
- 28:34measures any of them
- 28:36when a company says I'm carbon neutral
- 28:40like what does your company do how many
- 28:42people does your company employ like if
- 28:44you're making if you're Manufacturing
- 28:48plastic toys right like our company was
- 28:53built to manufacture plastic toys can
- 28:55anything you ever do be carbon neutral
- 28:59so it's like all these you can you can
- 29:01buy carbon offsets but your whole
- 29:03company was established to manufacture
- 29:05plastic widgets which produce carbon
- 29:07which you try to sell to people like
- 29:10this whole I think this whole scheme of
- 29:12trying to measure carbon output is
- 29:15um it's a it's a racket it's in a lot of
- 29:17ways like a [ __ ] coin like carbon energy
- 29:19uh
- 29:20credits like you can't accurately
- 29:23measure that and it's totally dependent
- 29:26on what your industry is and then that's
- 29:29also subjective like maybe I don't think
- 29:32that
- 29:33uh this plastic
- 29:36you know toy company should exist but
- 29:39they're selling a ton of plastic toys to
- 29:41kids who are very happy and it's
- 29:43improving their lives and so who am I to
- 29:45say this plastic toy company is
- 29:48you know producing a bunch of excess
- 29:51carbon that we don't need like it's all
- 29:52subjective no I I think I think you're
- 29:54right the measurement is very difficult
- 29:56and and setting what should and
- 29:59shouldn't be done is totally subjective
- 30:00I agree with you that I mean we have the
- 30:02same experience as a Bitcoin now where
- 30:03people talk about the uh the energy use
- 30:06of Bitcoin and then you know rightly so
- 30:08I Bitcoin say uh Christmas trees
- 30:11well the I think the biggest irony to me
- 30:14there is I truly believe that there is
- 30:17nothing better for the environment than
- 30:21humans adopting a form of money that
- 30:24encourages them to save instead of over
- 30:26consume I agree like yeah I love it over
- 30:29consumption and is the cause of lots of
- 30:34additional waste and malinvestment and
- 30:36again that's the subject that's my
- 30:37opinion
- 30:38but what I've noticed with myself is
- 30:40when I started saving in a form of money
- 30:42that can't be debased and actually
- 30:44increases in value over time I'm a lot
- 30:46less likely to go out and buy a second
- 30:49jet ski you know I'm happy with my one
- 30:51jet ski I don't need another jet ski
- 30:54you do what are we gonna write oh [ __ ]
- 30:57you should have had three jet skis I'll
- 30:58get you guys one of those uh one of
- 31:00those like try tricycle powered uh have
- 31:03you got have you got a jet ski not yet
- 31:05I'll probably go pick one up after this
- 31:07though because that sounds fun you guys
- 31:09want to go later should we go after this
- 31:12kid uh yeah I mean I think we're going
- 31:16to talk about this today but uh um it's
- 31:18quite interesting
- 31:19um we had Nate Harmon on the other day
- 31:22yeah uh great guy uh one of his jobs is
- 31:25to go up to one of the mountains uh in
- 31:28Hawaii and take the measurements and
- 31:31unambiguously
- 31:33the carbon is increasing in the
- 31:35atmosphere at a massive rate
- 31:36and he's measuring this
- 31:39at the top of a volcano no no no but
- 31:42there's a there's a really good reason
- 31:43to yeah like yeah any it's like the high
- 31:46who's saying it's the highest mountain
- 31:46in the world like if you measure from
- 31:48the sea floor or whatever yeah and and
- 31:50he goes to the top of the mountain so
- 31:51he's out of any kind of like
- 31:53contaminated wind from LA or whatever it
- 31:55might be so it was like a point to it
- 31:57and his peers around the world are doing
- 31:58the same sure and it's unambiguous that
- 32:01the amount of carbon in the atmosphere
- 32:02is increasing
- 32:03um I almost find the point that anyone
- 32:05who wants to argue against that must be
- 32:07being paid by somebody because uh the
- 32:10the scientific regions are there and
- 32:12he's also uh unambiguous in his point
- 32:14that if you increase carbon in the
- 32:16atmosphere you uh increase warming and
- 32:18you talk through the entire science of
- 32:19why
- 32:20uh the planet warms way retains heat and
- 32:23if you retain heat then there are
- 32:25consequences of that yeah people on the
- 32:27planet
- 32:28for me like the
- 32:31this is unambiguous sure but what we do
- 32:35about it or whether we do anything about
- 32:37it I think is a fair area for discussion
- 32:39and debate you know I agree with that
- 32:41accepts team the rapid reduction in
- 32:43fossil fuels has severe consequences
- 32:47um but I do think also not having some
- 32:49kind of transition to less carbon
- 32:51intensive energy sources will also have
- 32:54other consequences that are very hard to
- 32:56predict but could we could be quite
- 32:58severe depending on your social economic
- 33:01situation and I I think
- 33:04we've got ourselves in a position where
- 33:06people argue one end and not the other
- 33:08end we kind of need to meet in the
- 33:09middle and like find the answers to
- 33:10these issues
- 33:12um but we certainly there will be
- 33:13consequences if we continue increasing
- 33:16the burner fossil fuels for decades
- 33:18ahead
- 33:20I subscribe to the Bitcoin astronomy
- 33:23perspective of energy production which
- 33:26is that I want humans to be able to
- 33:28harness the power of our star the sun
- 33:31and so that we can go interplanetary and
- 33:33settle the solar system and in order for
- 33:36us to get there we're going to have to
- 33:37harness and generate and capture orders
- 33:40and orders and Orders of magnitude more
- 33:42energy than we're already producing and
- 33:45capturing today
- 33:46so I think getting there
- 33:49uh we will have so much Innovation like
- 33:52once we start harnessing additional
- 33:54energy at levels beyond what we can even
- 33:56comprehend today uh the amount of
- 33:58innovation that we're going to be able
- 34:00to produce will be you know it's
- 34:02unknowable but also massive and I do
- 34:05think that this that this effort of
- 34:08harnessing more energy
- 34:11will actually help us to solve these
- 34:13problems that we're having with carbon
- 34:15in the atmosphere if you believe that
- 34:16that's like something that we can solve
- 34:18you're talking about type two
- 34:19civilizations oh yeah Kardashian type
- 34:21two but the Kardashian scale the
- 34:23Kardashians yeah we did it the other day
- 34:26do you know how high that scale goes up
- 34:28to uh I think it's three right no oh
- 34:31really oh we're gonna blow your mind in
- 34:32a minute oh god well I think it does go
- 34:34up to three but some [ __ ] cook on the
- 34:36internet has made it go up slight 20 or
- 34:37so no no it got up to 35. and then it
- 34:40went to I and then brain we've got to
- 34:43show you this this shit's wild no I
- 34:45think the Kardashian scale goes up to a
- 34:47six now does it yeah but heads up to
- 34:49Chloe I think
- 34:52but I think like Nate would 100 agree
- 34:55with that like and his point is that the
- 34:57ocean it harnessed like I think you said
- 34:5940 of the harness 40 of the world's
- 35:02total energy from the ocean
- 35:04um and and the other thing that is like
- 35:06kind of to your point is I don't know if
- 35:07you said it on the show or when we were
- 35:08hanging out after but he was like I
- 35:10don't give like in some ways he doesn't
- 35:11give a [ __ ] about arguing with these
- 35:13people he just wants to beat them at
- 35:14Market because he can offer cheaper
- 35:15energy yes yes and and that's like
- 35:19by harnessing and producing
- 35:21significantly more energy we're driving
- 35:23down energy costs we're becoming more
- 35:25efficient at energy and like if he can
- 35:28produce uh you know an order of
- 35:30magnitude more energy by harnessing the
- 35:32ocean and it doesn't directly offset
- 35:35carbon although the research and
- 35:36development in order to get to the point
- 35:38where you can
- 35:39harness the ocean's energy is going to
- 35:41produce carbon then that's great because
- 35:44Humanity wins we we have more energy
- 35:47it's cheaper we don't have to spend half
- 35:48of our life savings on warming our home
- 35:51in the winter and we don't have 168
- 35:53million people in Bangladesh without the
- 35:55lights on right like this is a positive
- 35:57outcome so like harnessing more energy
- 35:59should be or in my opinion is a very
- 36:02Noble goal for people to be doing yeah I
- 36:04know yeah and and one of the things that
- 36:07was never really clear to me until you
- 36:09one of those things you don't you're not
- 36:10clear until you see it right you never I
- 36:12never really thought about uh the impact
- 36:14of energy prices on the economy because
- 36:16we've always had stable Energy prices
- 36:17I've never had to think about uh the
- 36:20impact of having a volatile currency
- 36:21until I went to a country and saw it
- 36:23right yeah I mean our British pound [ __ ]
- 36:26coin is you know decimated over like 300
- 36:29years as it existed but it's relatively
- 36:31stable year to year two percent
- 36:33inflation you barely notice it right
- 36:35even eight percent inflation is annoying
- 36:38but like survivable it's only when you
- 36:40go to someone like Venezuela and you you
- 36:42see you literally see what the impact is
- 36:44for hyperinflation you realize it's a
- 36:46different world
- 36:47slightly increase in Energy prices you
- 36:49don't really think about it when you
- 36:51suddenly see a massive increase in the
- 36:52energy prices as people can't get to
- 36:54work or yeah the example I gave the
- 36:57other day was this Bakery this Bakery a
- 36:59centralized bakery that uh based goods
- 37:01for a number of cafes but they also had
- 37:03three of their own cafes the energy
- 37:04prices went so high that they couldn't
- 37:06afford to keep the cafes open so they
- 37:08only have the centralized place now so
- 37:09they just instantly had to close down
- 37:11three businesses now other companies
- 37:13have a choice they swallow the cost
- 37:14which they can only do for a certain
- 37:16period or they increase their prices
- 37:17prices go up more inflation so the the
- 37:21impact of energy on the economy on the
- 37:24productivity of the economy and GDP was
- 37:26never something I thought about until
- 37:28till now and now I realize yes
- 37:30absolutely we need to produce as much
- 37:32cheap energy in the world as possible to
- 37:34make people as productive as possible to
- 37:37lift themselves out of poverty and Alex
- 37:38Epstein actually says that yeah and he's
- 37:40he's [ __ ] right well when when you
- 37:42lift yourself out of poverty then you
- 37:45have the ability to spend more time on
- 37:47solving bigger issues right if eight
- 37:51billion people around the world are
- 37:52struggling to feed their families
- 37:55tomorrow like we can't actually solve
- 37:57the larger issues of the world right
- 38:00like if we if you think that uh we can
- 38:03actually solve this carbon issue without
- 38:05either making it worse or destroying the
- 38:07planet then we have to be able to like
- 38:10heat our homes and have our basic needs
- 38:12taken care of so that it's like a higher
- 38:13order uh problem to solve I think the
- 38:15blip in this uh time is is the the
- 38:19nuclear problem I think if we to
- 38:21continue to develop nuclear and think
- 38:23continue to expand nuclear I don't think
- 38:25this would all of this would ever have
- 38:27been an issue but I think it is I mean
- 38:29we found out the other day what 54
- 38:31nuclear plants in France yeah 32 in a
- 38:34state of disrepair I don't know if
- 38:36they're in a state of Japan they're just
- 38:37down for maintenance but I mean there's
- 38:39a lot that means a lot and it all at
- 38:40once it seems if a nuclear plant is down
- 38:42from maintenance that's in a state of
- 38:44just for them
- 38:45and if there's 32 or the 54 that
- 38:48suggests that something's been neglected
- 38:50if you ask me but to me that is the blip
- 38:52in all of this
- 38:54um you know I we should be largely
- 38:56Beyond fossil fuels for I think
- 38:58providing energy to the grid yes it's
- 39:01yeah we've needed it for cars and planes
- 39:04and we probably never replace it for
- 39:05planes
- 39:06but you know the US just launched uh an
- 39:09aircraft carrier that was that's a
- 39:11nuclear
- 39:12uh aircraft carrier so we've harnessed
- 39:14the paranuclear in vehicles as well as
- 39:17yeah so that's like the perfect example
- 39:20of where uh like like we we've invested
- 39:25you know decades and decades and decades
- 39:27into producing a warship powered by
- 39:30nuclear energy yeah like the carbon
- 39:33output of that
- 39:36like war machine is astronomical and
- 39:41like now now that we have this gigantic
- 39:44ship that's running on nuclear like is
- 39:46that good for the environment like no
- 39:48why why not
- 39:50because it's it's a it's a machine of
- 39:53War it's it's you know difficult I mean
- 39:55the machine specifically I'm talking
- 39:56about the just the carbon output of an
- 39:59aircraft carrier that is uh that is
- 40:01powered by I want fewer aircraft
- 40:02carriers no of course of course but I'm
- 40:04all I'm talking about is the fact that
- 40:06they've harnessed the energy of nuclear
- 40:07power to power that like which by the
- 40:10way always wears me out as well because
- 40:12you're You Know You're Made To Fear
- 40:14nuclear but you can actually power
- 40:16um an aircraft carrier or a submarine
- 40:18with nuclear power but the point is it's
- 40:20like we've harnessed these Technologies
- 40:22and now we've just kind of like let them
- 40:24go and we're in this you know situation
- 40:25now which is
- 40:28currency collapse is a real [ __ ] energy
- 40:30collapse is a real [ __ ]
- 40:32currency is what coordinates the
- 40:34extraction of energy and right now uh
- 40:37the energy is it's we're not extracting
- 40:40it yeah harnessing it very well and
- 40:41we're blowing up pipelines which
- 40:42distribute Energy across Europe
- 40:45um uh but an energy crisis and a
- 40:47currency crisis at the same time is
- 40:50quite the [ __ ] mix well I you know
- 40:52Bitcoin it's money and its energy at the
- 40:55same time it's it's the marriage of the
- 40:57two energy money right yeah and so I
- 41:00think maybe uh regardless of how your
- 41:04currency is secured
- 41:07your currency is always a form of energy
- 41:10it's always like the output of
- 41:13delivering value of human energy in
- 41:15action you should save that value that
- 41:18you've produced in a form of money and
- 41:20regardless of how that money is saved or
- 41:23secured like energy has always been
- 41:25expended to achieve it yeah I don't want
- 41:27to let you off completely on this um
- 41:29fossil fuels thing yeah I do just want
- 41:31to finish off because
- 41:32it is an evolving understanding that
- 41:34people are having that certain people
- 41:36have brought new information to the
- 41:37table but
- 41:38um I think the unknown area is that if
- 41:41we continue to burn fossil fuels as we
- 41:44are and we continue to increase a carbon
- 41:46in the atmosphere what are the
- 41:48consequences before we transition away
- 41:50from that we are seeing the consequences
- 41:53of an increase in carbon the atmosphere
- 41:54the planet is warming up quicker than it
- 41:56would and I know some people say it's
- 41:57always been warming no it's not warmed
- 42:00at the rate it's warming now and there
- 42:01are consequences for that we've we don't
- 42:03fully know the impact of that now the
- 42:04those have catastrophized it I've
- 42:07obviously
- 42:09um they've not done a great PR job for
- 42:11what that you know the cause they're
- 42:13trying to support
- 42:14but there are significant risks of a
- 42:16massive increase for Mormon there are
- 42:18significant risks of increasing sea
- 42:19levels I mean we do have an increase in
- 42:21sea levels and there is a significant
- 42:23increase to people living in coastal
- 42:25regions but we don't know that we don't
- 42:28know when these consequences here it
- 42:29might not be us it might be my
- 42:31grandchildren that suddenly hit with a
- 42:33different scenario sure we don't know
- 42:35these and I think I think it's only
- 42:37right
- 42:38for the smart right intelligent people
- 42:41who aren't being lobbied just do the
- 42:43right research on what will be the
- 42:45impact on the environment if we do
- 42:47continue to increase carbon in the
- 42:49atmosphere because that's the bit we've
- 42:50always struggled to find good data on
- 42:53there's good models on
- 42:55on
- 42:56um
- 42:56the changes in temperature if we
- 42:58continue into increase carbon but
- 43:00nobody's on any particular good work on
- 43:03the impact of that that's the bit I've
- 43:05struggled to find
- 43:07the way I think about it is [ __ ] them no
- 43:11uh I think that this it very well could
- 43:15be uh a crisis or a real problem
- 43:18we don't know how it will manifest we
- 43:21don't know when it will manifest I've
- 43:23Heard lots of predictions over the years
- 43:24that have proven to be false
- 43:27what we do know for certain is what
- 43:29happens when you try to push a
- 43:32civilization to a form of energy that
- 43:35isn't as reliable quickly we have
- 43:38evidence and certainty
- 43:41about how societies collapse and the
- 43:44suffering that it causes yes
- 43:46we think that there will be a problem in
- 43:49the future
- 43:49right
- 43:52we have certainty if you move off of
- 43:54fossil fuels today and you try to go
- 43:56full wind solar whatever
- 44:00like you're gonna be in the darkness in
- 44:02like Bangladesh
- 44:05we believe that there might be a problem
- 44:06in the future it's just like it's like
- 44:07an unwinnable situation I think what we
- 44:10can do is try to remove what I would say
- 44:13is remove all the subsidies
- 44:15get a real market price well first of
- 44:18all hold on even for oil hold on first
- 44:20of all set back
- 44:22foundationally reset the entire global
- 44:24economy on a sound money okay step one
- 44:27then when we have real prices again
- 44:29because we don't have real prices right
- 44:31now our prices of everything are heavily
- 44:33heavily manipulated by what Jerome
- 44:35Powell is feeling uh in on a given day
- 44:39once we have real prices you'll be able
- 44:40to see what is the most efficient way to
- 44:43produce energy
- 44:44we will produce energy that way and the
- 44:48people who are the most profitable at
- 44:49producing energy will have additional
- 44:51resources to invest in getting more
- 44:54efficient at producing energy right
- 44:57Bitcoin mining helps us get there
- 44:59because
- 45:01any excess energy that's generated you
- 45:04can just mine right
- 45:06offload to the Bitcoin Network
- 45:08um
- 45:10so yeah that's that's kind of my my my
- 45:12strategy here is uh first of all rip out
- 45:15the Frankenstein Financial system with a
- 45:18bunch of different 100 whatever
- 45:20different currencies that are all
- 45:21collapsing replace it with sound money
- 45:23yes
- 45:25we have real pricing mechanism so we can
- 45:27see now with much greater Clarity what's
- 45:30the most efficient way to produce energy
- 45:32invest in that
- 45:34you should go and get Jerome Pyle's job
- 45:36yeah you know I I should just call him
- 45:39up if you have a massive objection on
- 45:41this right okay so do you think do you
- 45:43think if we
- 45:45um
- 45:45replace the the world's Global
- 45:47currencies on sound money yes and have
- 45:50proper accurate pricing
- 45:52uh do you believe there for what is the
- 45:54role of the state in this or is it see
- 45:56you later no we have to have an entity
- 45:59that has a monopoly on violence like
- 46:01there must be wow okay absolutely okay
- 46:05no no I'll tell you why this is
- 46:07interesting because uh you didn't let me
- 46:10finish but okay no no actually it's just
- 46:12no because this debate hasn't really
- 46:13come up and I've wanted to hear this
- 46:15because certain people would argue that
- 46:18it's morally wrong for someone an entity
- 46:20to have the Monopoly on violence
- 46:22but I've also had the argument that
- 46:24somebody has a monopoly on violence
- 46:25there is less violence
- 46:28so the way that I think about it is uh
- 46:31so first of all the way that governments
- 46:33work today is out of control yes
- 46:36um they're way too large and they're way
- 46:39too
- 46:40um abstracted away from like the local
- 46:42your local community so they're in my
- 46:45opinion there's certainly you need to
- 46:47have some form of protection
- 46:50um and I don't subscribe to the 100
- 46:53Homesteader self-sovereign Mountain Man
- 46:56out in the woods method because
- 47:00um
- 47:01Society is formed through humans
- 47:06cooperating and the sum is greater or
- 47:10the the whole is greater than the sum of
- 47:12the parts like when people get together
- 47:13and
- 47:16collaborate and cooperate we produce
- 47:18something that is way more impressive
- 47:20and better than any single individual
- 47:24can produce so we need hierarchy
- 47:27what you need to have in order to
- 47:29maintain the peace in a civilization is
- 47:32some entity that uh that yeah
- 47:36it basically it it's the just a justice
- 47:39system you need to have laws you need to
- 47:41have people who enforce those laws and
- 47:44you need to have consequences for
- 47:46breaking the laws
- 47:48um so I do believe that that
- 47:50civilizations have historically formed
- 47:53in this way because it's the best way to
- 47:55form a civilization we've never built a
- 47:57society on top of a sound money which I
- 48:00think
- 48:01will really change the dynamic like the
- 48:04communities will all be much more local
- 48:05politics will be much more local and
- 48:09um
- 48:09I don't think we've had close to a
- 48:11society Beyond us our money when we had
- 48:13the gold standard that's close but gold
- 48:16is but we understand the difference in
- 48:17productivity and the accuracy we're
- 48:19pricing when we did have a gold standard
- 48:21I would say that we didn't have sound
- 48:24money so gold is not a sound money
- 48:27um it's close it was the best that was
- 48:29available but it's not sound because
- 48:31it's physical and we have it has an
- 48:34unknown total Supply so if you think
- 48:36about money
- 48:37as a ruler like money is a tool that
- 48:40allows you to store and communicate
- 48:42value it allows you to measure the value
- 48:44of your output and purchase goods and
- 48:46services which is the output of others
- 48:48right it's like a it's a tool we've
- 48:51never had a tool that is an accurate
- 48:53measurement of output until Bitcoin
- 48:56because Bitcoin has a supply of 21
- 48:58million it's fixed it's set oh no no
- 49:00even gold we're just saying we had
- 49:02closer to it we could we could yeah even
- 49:04though it wasn't a sound money system it
- 49:07was closer to a sound money system and
- 49:09again Ben Prentiss will point to 1971
- 49:11and he will say look at the difference
- 49:13look what happened when look at what
- 49:15happened when we came off the gold
- 49:16standard so we all we've done is get
- 49:18further away from her well the problem
- 49:20yeah and that's like coming off of the
- 49:23gold standard is an inevitability with
- 49:25gold because it's physical and because
- 49:28it has an unknown total Supply you can't
- 49:30verify how much gold you have and you're
- 49:33centralized well it centralizes yes
- 49:35because it doesn't scale for a global
- 49:37whole society like we can't uh travel to
- 49:41different solar systems on gold using
- 49:44gold as our money like we can't travel
- 49:46to different planets even because it's
- 49:47you can't lug around like piles of gold
- 49:50you keep dipping into grooves I've just
- 49:52been I've just been thinking about space
- 49:54recently yeah I love Drew's articles
- 49:56great yeah
- 49:58um
- 49:58okay fine so we how how do we
- 50:03re-establish on no hold on where were we
- 50:05you were in the middle of something you
- 50:07were asking Phil about like what the
- 50:09society he envisions would be yeah so
- 50:11the Monopoly and violence yeah so yeah I
- 50:14mean uh a lot of uh
- 50:18Austrian thinkers have written about the
- 50:21role of government in a society mises
- 50:24wrote a lot about that and I I really I
- 50:28think it's I think it's correct I think
- 50:30first of all from the first principle of
- 50:31like you know the the ultimate sovereign
- 50:35individual just cannot
- 50:37produce as much value as a collection of
- 50:40people working together yes so
- 50:42civilizations grew because it's more
- 50:44efficient it's better it delivers more
- 50:46prosperity and uh human nature is such
- 50:50that
- 50:52if you can cheat you will cheat maybe
- 50:55not a given individual but in a
- 50:58collection of individuals somebody is
- 50:59going to take a shortcut somewhere
- 51:02um and so I do think that you need to
- 51:04have rule of law and you need to have a
- 51:06system of government I again I just
- 51:08think like this uh federal system around
- 51:10the world or these Federal systems are
- 51:13hugely inefficient they're bloated and
- 51:17they don't work very well anymore and
- 51:19the only reason that they're sustained
- 51:21is because uh they have the power of the
- 51:23printing press so that's that's my two
- 51:25two SATs on that like there will be
- 51:27government it'll be much more local uh
- 51:29the the local governments will be or the
- 51:32local civilizations will be much more
- 51:34prosperous I mean I completely agree
- 51:36with you
- 51:37um
- 51:38but there are a lot of people in Bitcoin
- 51:39who wouldn't agree with you and don't
- 51:41agree with you uh Jack mizuko would say
- 51:43millions of people uh interact with each
- 51:46other voluntary every day and we do not
- 51:49need any form of Monopoly on violence
- 51:51uh I mean I think that's a that's also a
- 51:54perspective like I can't
- 51:56I mean if he feels that way then that's
- 51:58that's kind of Giacomo's perspective I
- 52:00just think like
- 52:01you you
- 52:03have to pay someone for security or you
- 52:06have to secure yourself and I don't
- 52:08subscribe to the mountain man you know
- 52:11in the woods like with a huge Arsenal
- 52:13and homesteading like it's just not the
- 52:16society I want to live in I want to live
- 52:18in a nice Community where I can trust my
- 52:20neighbors and like uh yeah maybe I can
- 52:23defend myself but on the whole like we
- 52:26have to hire somebody to defend us
- 52:28because I can't specialize in defense I
- 52:31need to specialize in you know helping
- 52:32people hold their keys like
- 52:35that's the division of labor and I think
- 52:38that that's what civilization's built on
- 52:40so yeah I would happily pay somebody for
- 52:43uh protection so how fundamental to this
- 52:46is 21 million
- 52:48it's everything yeah so uh it's it's the
- 52:52reason that we're here talking today
- 52:55um Bitcoin
- 52:57is the discovery of digital scarcity
- 53:00it's the dis it's the permanent solution
- 53:03to this idea of inflation or printing
- 53:05money the unfortunate side effect of
- 53:08Bitcoin is that people who don't
- 53:11understand that the Innovation was
- 53:13removing the printing press from the
- 53:15hands of everyone view it as oh now I
- 53:18can become a central Banker right so the
- 53:21broader crypto scene is people who want
- 53:24to be their own Central bankers
- 53:26Bitcoin and bitcoiners are the people
- 53:29who understand that we've got to
- 53:31separate money production from the hands
- 53:34of any given an individual
- 53:36uh so that we can all use this neutral
- 53:39currency and it can accurately store
- 53:41value over time
- 53:43and it's a non-negotiable for you we
- 53:45know 21 million is non-negotiable so the
- 53:48I wrote a couple articles a few years
- 53:49ago about this and the reason I wrote uh
- 53:52these articles was really a few few
- 53:54reasons like first of all
- 53:56a lot of crypto marketers
- 53:59will compare their currency
- 54:02their currency's inflation rate to
- 54:04bitcoin's inflation rate because every
- 54:0710 minutes 6.25 Bitcoin are released
- 54:10through the process of of processing
- 54:12transactions which we call mining
- 54:15that categorization is totally wrong
- 54:17like Bitcoin does not have inflation
- 54:19Bitcoin has a supply of 21 million that
- 54:23is released on a fixed schedule that we
- 54:25can all verify on our home computers so
- 54:28they already exist
- 54:31yeah so I think about it as your mom
- 54:34bakes 21 cookies
- 54:36and you get one cookie every 10 minutes
- 54:40for doing your math homework this is how
- 54:43I go about this exactly like you don't
- 54:46have control of all the cookies yet but
- 54:48do the cookies exist yes if if somebody
- 54:51comes in and says actually I have
- 54:53another 21 million cookies like those
- 54:56are a different set of cookies
- 54:58so I need to ask a couple of technical
- 54:59questions on that sure so at the point
- 55:02where a block is found yes and uh the
- 55:06coinbase reward is created and
- 55:10is a utxo created at that point
- 55:15so like if yeah like I don't understand
- 55:17this part yeah so when the coinbase uh
- 55:20when when a block is discovered yeah uh
- 55:22the the mining pool uh that discovers
- 55:25the block is issued
- 55:27um the the subsidy and yeah it's issued
- 55:30as a utxo so the utxo has created at
- 55:33that point the utxo uh yes is created at
- 55:37that point so I don't think they'll I
- 55:39don't think all 21 million exist then
- 55:42so they have to already exist because we
- 55:44know that the supply is 21 million and
- 55:46then we also know if the schedule has
- 55:48been broken so if if a minor finds
- 55:5212.5 Bitcoin at the next block like we
- 55:57know that that's invalid that's not
- 55:58Bitcoin that's a hard Fork yeah right
- 56:01but how do we know that it's a hard Fork
- 56:03if the Bitcoin doesn't already exist we
- 56:05already know that there's 21 million we
- 56:07know exactly how they're released uh and
- 56:09if anything about that schedule changes
- 56:11that's a hard Fork that we can claim and
- 56:14sell for more Bitcoin so I'm going to
- 56:16argue back with you that I don't think
- 56:18they exist because I heard about I was
- 56:19thinking about this quite a bit last
- 56:20month okay okay so I understand your
- 56:22point in that there's can only be 21
- 56:24million and then every 10 minutes these
- 56:27are issued out to the port or the lucky
- 56:29solo Miner
- 56:31um but my argument is is that you can
- 56:34only identify uh Bitcoin by utxos and
- 56:37therefore those
- 56:39um those Bitcoins that haven't been
- 56:41issued yet because that don't have a
- 56:43utxo so they don't exist but the
- 56:45software only allows uh uh Bitcoin to be
- 56:50issued up until the point it hits 21
- 56:52million but we know exactly where those
- 56:54Bitcoin are living in future blocks like
- 56:56you can pick any Block in the future and
- 56:59I can tell you how much Bitcoin lives in
- 57:00the coinbase Troy there and what we
- 57:02don't know is the existing utxo set how
- 57:05that's going to move like the Huddle
- 57:07waves is how we kind of see the existing
- 57:09utxo set and how it moves over time we
- 57:12have very little Clarity like Satoshi
- 57:14could you know market sell his 1 million
- 57:16Bitcoin uh for uh ethereum proof of
- 57:20stake you know tomorrow seems a little
- 57:22unlikely to me but
- 57:23they could right
- 57:25um because they have the keys to it the
- 57:27utxos are under the controls of their
- 57:29keys what Satoshi can't do is I don't
- 57:32know what block we're at but five blocks
- 57:34from now change uh the 6.25 subsidy to
- 57:39something else but that's to me that's
- 57:42the rules that says what Bitcoin can be
- 57:44created at that point
- 57:47the rules say they don't exist yet but
- 57:49they say they can be created at that
- 57:51point when that block is created the
- 57:52consensus rules pass and those Bitcoin
- 57:56agreed again I don't know the technicals
- 57:57of how what or what part happens when
- 57:59they're created but the utxos are issued
- 58:02at that point therefore once UTS are
- 58:05issued then that Bitcoin exists
- 58:08so I think of it as uh again like the
- 58:12like Bitcoin is the software that we run
- 58:15on our computers and it's the private
- 58:17Keys We Hold to our Bitcoin addresses
- 58:19and the software we run uh the node like
- 58:23has the roadmap laid out it has all 21
- 58:27million Bitcoin and exactly when they're
- 58:30going to be released and which block and
- 58:33so I think that if you understand how
- 58:36this system works you can just assume
- 58:38that all 21 million Bitcoin exist and uh
- 58:42you can profit from that information
- 58:43like miners out there are not like
- 58:46investing in massive mining
- 58:49infrastructure you know with the
- 58:51knowledge that this this thing could
- 58:53change like they're doing it because oh
- 58:54no I agree it's fixed they understand
- 58:56that there will only be 21 million
- 58:58Bitcoin and so it's just better to think
- 59:01of them as already existing uh the other
- 59:03thing so again the reason that I think
- 59:05that it's it's important to think like
- 59:06this and it's very esoteric I know but
- 59:08uh when when [ __ ] coiners are marketing
- 59:12like oh ethereum is now ultrasound money
- 59:15because it's issues less you know per
- 59:18day than Bitcoin like that's insane you
- 59:21can't first of all you can't change
- 59:23something to become more sound that's an
- 59:27oxymoron number two like you don't know
- 59:30the ultimate supply of ethereum you
- 59:33don't know the ultimate supply of gold
- 59:34you don't know the ultimate supply of
- 59:36really any currency because none of
- 59:37their supplies are credible we don't
- 59:39even know the current Supply exactly
- 59:40with Bitcoin you know that there will
- 59:43only ever be 21 million and you know
- 59:44exactly how they're going to be unlocked
- 59:46locked or issued so I just think
- 59:49switching your mindset into
- 59:51understanding that they already exist
- 59:53helps you to understand sound money
- 59:55principles and helps you to understand
- 59:56why broader crypto is in my opinion a
- 1:00:00scam yeah no I I can understand the Mind
- 1:00:02switch I just don't agree they exist yet
- 1:00:04what do you think Danny do they exist
- 1:00:06I just I don't really see why it matters
- 1:00:09like either way not the 21 million but
- 1:00:12like whether they already exist or
- 1:00:13they're getting unlocked over time like
- 1:00:15it makes no real difference I think the
- 1:00:17idea for like a marketing side of things
- 1:00:19really good in the terms of like
- 1:00:21clarifying the difference but it makes
- 1:00:23no difference does it yes I mean if
- 1:00:25that's the only reason then that's a
- 1:00:27good reason because you have these
- 1:00:29idiots out here marketing ethereum is
- 1:00:31ultrasound money which is there's
- 1:00:34nothing even remotely minimally sound
- 1:00:37about it and they're looking at this one
- 1:00:40metric and saying the inflation rate is
- 1:00:42what makes it ultrasound money
- 1:00:45and they're like look at bitcoin's
- 1:00:47inflation it's you know whatever percent
- 1:00:49per year one point something percent per
- 1:00:51year the way I look at it is
- 1:00:54no bitcoin's inflation is zero because
- 1:00:57I've always been zero the supply is
- 1:00:59fixed it's the only currency
- 1:01:01that has ever existed that has a fixed
- 1:01:04Supply
- 1:01:05all other currencies don't have a fixed
- 1:01:09Supply even even the other cryptos that
- 1:01:11say that they have fixed Supply they're
- 1:01:13centralized and so it can be changed and
- 1:01:15there's plenty of examples of all of
- 1:01:17those other cryptos changing and then
- 1:01:19the fact that in the innovation of
- 1:01:22Bitcoin is the discovery of digital
- 1:01:25scarcity
- 1:01:26and broader crypto is a replica it is
- 1:01:31just proof that things that are digital
- 1:01:33are extremely easy to copy like you can
- 1:01:35copy bitcoin's quite code base change a
- 1:01:37few things here or there launch your own
- 1:01:39currency you've proven that things that
- 1:01:41are digital are typically not scarce but
- 1:01:43what you can't do is create more than 21
- 1:01:45million Bitcoin so I see your point now
- 1:01:48there's an inflation rate zero yeah it's
- 1:01:50just it's just a release schedule it's a
- 1:01:52schedule it's a schedule yeah yeah so
- 1:01:54then so then the second article I wrote
- 1:01:56that's actually a really good point and
- 1:01:57I can see the benefit there then explain
- 1:02:00it to people because another thing I was
- 1:02:01discussing with Parker
- 1:02:03um yesterday was that uh my way of
- 1:02:06explaining Bitcoin to people is evolving
- 1:02:08it's moving from telling them what
- 1:02:10Bitcoin is to telling them what is wrong
- 1:02:12with Fiat money and then what Bitcoin
- 1:02:14solves now
- 1:02:16I think it's going to be far easier to
- 1:02:18say there is an inflation rate at zero
- 1:02:20and there's 21 million and there's a
- 1:02:22release schedule than to say there's
- 1:02:24this inflation rate and every four years
- 1:02:26there's a half and like to get because
- 1:02:28you have to get into all the difficulty
- 1:02:29you have to get into all this other [ __ ]
- 1:02:31you don't need to get into that just
- 1:02:32makes it easier I get it so then I think
- 1:02:35you're wrong
- 1:02:38Jeremy do they already exist yes or no
- 1:02:40no
- 1:02:43oh wow but but
- 1:02:45I I'm agreeing with you it's a useful
- 1:02:47thing to say and I'm going to use that
- 1:02:49because sometimes it's better to do it
- 1:02:52that way all right well I've changed
- 1:02:53maybe one mind or at least I've tipped
- 1:02:56the needle a little bit you tip the
- 1:02:57needle so the other the other reason
- 1:02:59that I wrote uh this the first storyline
- 1:03:03the second article is when you
- 1:03:05understand that uh there will only ever
- 1:03:08be 21 million Bitcoin because Bitcoin is
- 1:03:10in fact the supply of 20 million like
- 1:03:12you can't separate the two you then
- 1:03:14realize that the other marketing angle
- 1:03:17that a lot of crypto and shitcoin
- 1:03:19Founders will take is this idea that at
- 1:03:23some point in the future Bitcoin will be
- 1:03:24unsecure
- 1:03:26it's it's one of the most regular emails
- 1:03:29I get yeah yeah it's uh what happens in
- 1:03:32you know three halvings time if the
- 1:03:34Bitcoin price at this point and uh yeah
- 1:03:37we we have a you know a much lower hash
- 1:03:40rate you know we'll be less secure and
- 1:03:43you know what if that is a trend like
- 1:03:45can you get somebody on to talk about
- 1:03:46this and I'm like we can't make a whole
- 1:03:47show on that but it is a question that
- 1:03:49comes up a lot
- 1:03:50and it's a really tough question to
- 1:03:53tackle because I don't think that the
- 1:03:54answer is what people want to hear so
- 1:03:57the way that I think about this is is
- 1:03:59Bitcoin secure today
- 1:04:02deal with it at the time well is it
- 1:04:03secure today yes uh was it secure five
- 1:04:06years ago
- 1:04:08I mean I don't think you can say whether
- 1:04:11it is binary secure exactly yeah is it
- 1:04:14still alive yeah so then it was Secure
- 1:04:16five years ago yeah no I think I think
- 1:04:18what you can do is you can you can
- 1:04:20calculate the costs you can do a couple
- 1:04:22of things you can calculate the cost of
- 1:04:24uh how much hash power you have to uh I
- 1:04:27think that that's the wrong approach
- 1:04:28person but to bear with me that you know
- 1:04:30to be able to attack it okay you have to
- 1:04:32be able to do that but then you also
- 1:04:34have to rationalize the actual process
- 1:04:36of being able to accumulate that hash
- 1:04:37power which is even more likely so you
- 1:04:39know when somebody says well you need 20
- 1:04:41billion dollars of money yeah fine oh
- 1:04:44whoa somebody's got 50 billion they can
- 1:04:46do it yeah but you can't actually gonna
- 1:04:47accumulate the hash power and if you do
- 1:04:49other people will start accumulating
- 1:04:51hash power so I think I think you can
- 1:04:54you can create a risk model
- 1:04:57okay but how much hash brown there is
- 1:04:58how much do you need
- 1:05:00you know how easy does it get it because
- 1:05:02look at bch or bsv you could very easily
- 1:05:06accumulate that hash brown you could
- 1:05:07destroy those networks right it's very
- 1:05:09easy to do
- 1:05:10with Bitcoin it's close to Impossible
- 1:05:12right now so that's the way I think of
- 1:05:14it like how risky like what is the risk
- 1:05:17model rather than the cost
- 1:05:19so I think about it as
- 1:05:22the network security is discovered on
- 1:05:26the free market so it will only like and
- 1:05:29the fact that it's alive today
- 1:05:3113 years after its founding is proof
- 1:05:35that the incentives to secure it are
- 1:05:37were set up correctly
- 1:05:40um so bitcoin's hash rate was you know
- 1:05:42what a quarter of what it is today five
- 1:05:45years ago
- 1:05:46but it's here today and the hash rate is
- 1:05:48now at an all-time high what hasn't
- 1:05:50changed throughout that time is that
- 1:05:51there will only ever be 21 million
- 1:05:53Bitcoin the other thing to think about
- 1:05:55and I I never I think anyone who's doing
- 1:05:58any sort of modeling using the US dollar
- 1:06:00is uh is on the wrong path because the
- 1:06:05the value of the dollar is constantly
- 1:06:06changing the value of Bitcoin is
- 1:06:08constantly changing you have to take
- 1:06:09those as as things that are going to
- 1:06:11continue to be true forever with Bitcoin
- 1:06:13the value of the currency is always
- 1:06:15going to change even when it's globally
- 1:06:18adopted by 8 billion people
- 1:06:20um because people are exchanging it
- 1:06:23constantly
- 1:06:25so what I look at is
- 1:06:28there incentive today to invest in
- 1:06:32Bitcoin mining or invest in securing
- 1:06:35this thing and
- 1:06:38the incentive is is it profitable to
- 1:06:41actually do that and the answer is
- 1:06:42unequivocally yes like large companies
- 1:06:45around the world are investing massive
- 1:06:48amounts of capital into mining Bitcoin
- 1:06:50because it's a profitable endeavor
- 1:06:53and it will always be true
- 1:06:55because
- 1:06:57Bitcoin mining is actually part of the
- 1:06:59energy production industry it's not part
- 1:07:01of it's not like this own its own like
- 1:07:03carve out industry it's like part of
- 1:07:06energy production is that you have to
- 1:07:08balance the amount of energy you're
- 1:07:10producing with the amount of demand for
- 1:07:13the energy and you can never perfectly
- 1:07:16balance it and so you're always going to
- 1:07:18have a scenario where you know you
- 1:07:20produce too much energy and demand
- 1:07:22doesn't uh quite mean it
- 1:07:25and you need to do something with that
- 1:07:27energy or waste it so today when we look
- 1:07:29at energy production especially in the
- 1:07:31Renewables there's a lot of times when
- 1:07:34uh the supply and demand are out of
- 1:07:36whack and so they have to shut down
- 1:07:37production so like I was reading a
- 1:07:39statistic about wind energy
- 1:07:42that said that in California I think in
- 1:07:44like 2018 2019 17 of the time they're
- 1:07:47shutting off production of energy
- 1:07:49they're producing way too much wind
- 1:07:51energy than they can deliver to the grid
- 1:07:53well what if you had a tool that would
- 1:07:55always buy your wind energy
- 1:07:58but it's only going to buy the wind
- 1:08:00energy
- 1:08:01buy it if it can mine Bitcoin sure or
- 1:08:04enough Bitcoin and the unknown is is
- 1:08:07come 2141 but probably much you know
- 1:08:11before then uh what what did they
- 1:08:13actually mine in that block what did
- 1:08:15they get out of that block sure well and
- 1:08:17I I like to point to another kind of
- 1:08:19historical Bitcoin moment which is when
- 1:08:24Laszlo purchased uh two pizzas for 10
- 1:08:28000 Bitcoin
- 1:08:29do you guys know what the transaction
- 1:08:31fee he paid was I do because I read your
- 1:08:33article
- 1:08:36guess
- 1:08:38I don't know five sets one Bitcoin ha
- 1:08:43today uh we pay you know I think each
- 1:08:47block and we'd have to pull up like
- 1:08:49blockstream.info to see exactly what the
- 1:08:51transaction fee is but tens or
- 1:08:54potentially hundreds of millions of SATs
- 1:08:56in transaction fees at today's price
- 1:08:59it's not that bad like in the future as
- 1:09:03the value of Bitcoin changes 10 million
- 1:09:06SATs could be an astronomical uh fee to
- 1:09:10be paying if enough people are using the
- 1:09:12base chain but we know that the number
- 1:09:15of users of Bitcoin is continually
- 1:09:17increasing over time
- 1:09:19but they might do this they might always
- 1:09:21they might be just be hodlers or using
- 1:09:24the lightning Network that's that's
- 1:09:25number go up technology right there yeah
- 1:09:26but what I'm saying is you could have a
- 1:09:28scenario where people there just isn't
- 1:09:30the number of transactions to create I
- 1:09:33don't think that that can ever be the
- 1:09:35case because
- 1:09:37uh first of all you have to make layer
- 1:09:40one transactions to use the lightning
- 1:09:41Network you have to settle your
- 1:09:43lightning channels eventually like you
- 1:09:44have to manage channels and so people
- 1:09:46will especially even if you're using the
- 1:09:48lightning Network you're always going to
- 1:09:49be at some point making L1 transaction
- 1:09:51layer one transactions and then on top
- 1:09:53of that uh the difficulty adjustment of
- 1:09:56Bitcoin ensures that Bitcoin is always
- 1:09:59paying the market rate for energy like
- 1:10:01if
- 1:10:02if it's not profitable for a majority of
- 1:10:05minors to mine Bitcoin at the current
- 1:10:07value and with the current transaction
- 1:10:10fee environment or subsidy environment
- 1:10:12they'll shut off production
- 1:10:14the difficulty adjustment kicks in and
- 1:10:17then it becomes profitable for somebody
- 1:10:18to mine at that value hmm
- 1:10:21so the difficulty adjustment I think
- 1:10:23really takes care of a lot of this issue
- 1:10:24like it will always be profitable for
- 1:10:27somebody to be mining Bitcoin no I
- 1:10:29agreed but but how many people are
- 1:10:32competing to mine that Bitcoin and how
- 1:10:34much security is there at that time I
- 1:10:36think and bringing everything kind of
- 1:10:39back to energy like one of my Visions
- 1:10:42for the future is that energy production
- 1:10:45is also extremely localized right yeah
- 1:10:48so you know solar panels on your roof or
- 1:10:51whatever or a local nuclear power plant
- 1:10:53or something a new a little power plant
- 1:10:56that you can put in your backyard
- 1:10:57something like that
- 1:10:59um and you're you're going to
- 1:11:00individually have that problem of
- 1:11:03uh supply and demand for energy so it's
- 1:11:05like you're always going to need a tool
- 1:11:07to buy up any excess Supply and
- 1:11:10monetizing any amount of that is better
- 1:11:13than shutting off production
- 1:11:14so hashray's basically just gone up
- 1:11:16forever yeah it's on an all-time high
- 1:11:18right now I mean it crashed 40 when
- 1:11:21China banned the Bitcoin but that came
- 1:11:23back pretty quick oh my gosh yeah almost
- 1:11:25immediately but do you think there's a
- 1:11:26time where like the sort of ratio
- 1:11:28between products and subsidy reached a
- 1:11:30point where it has to start dropping
- 1:11:31again
- 1:11:32I don't think so because again like and
- 1:11:37the problem the problem that Bitcoin
- 1:11:39mining solves is not a Bitcoin problem
- 1:11:41it's an energy problem like we're always
- 1:11:44going to be imperfectly efficient at
- 1:11:47energy production
- 1:11:49and this is a tool that energy producers
- 1:11:52can always use or rely on in a situation
- 1:11:55where they can't you know deliver the
- 1:11:57energy to you know people like it never
- 1:12:00competes with individuals for uh energy
- 1:12:04like in the UK I'm sure all Bitcoin
- 1:12:07miners have essentially shut off
- 1:12:08production yeah right because it's so
- 1:12:10expensive to buy energy there that it's
- 1:12:12we just don't have we just even before
- 1:12:14this we just don't really have mining
- 1:12:16yeah yeah it's too expensive before that
- 1:12:18exactly so it's like mining always goes
- 1:12:20to the places that is the remote
- 1:12:22stranded energy the cheapest energy the
- 1:12:24excess Hydro every single renewable
- 1:12:27energy
- 1:12:28um
- 1:12:29setup should have Asics on site because
- 1:12:32it's just a tool for them so yeah I
- 1:12:35don't think it'll ever be a problem and
- 1:12:36I think the prediction articles that
- 1:12:38I've read have all made a lot of
- 1:12:40mistakes because they're trying to
- 1:12:43measure the value of the security in
- 1:12:46like the dollar but the dollar is
- 1:12:47changing value and there the Bitcoin is
- 1:12:50changing value and so you have to think
- 1:12:52about it from
- 1:12:53Austrian first principles
- 1:12:56um
- 1:12:56in order to kind of have a deeper
- 1:12:58understanding of it I think well this
- 1:13:00wasn't the show we expected to make at
- 1:13:01all not at all yeah last point on that
- 1:13:03though before we close out
- 1:13:05um that's like the argument that all the
- 1:13:07East people are going to now try and
- 1:13:08Target though that like Bitcoin minings
- 1:13:10means you can't have a light on
- 1:13:11but now they've gone through the state
- 1:13:13that's going to be attacked
- 1:13:14like hard yeah but it already started
- 1:13:17haven't they yeah I mean they started as
- 1:13:18soon as their timing for that transition
- 1:13:20in terms of like trying to sort of
- 1:13:22spread foot is perfect
- 1:13:24um but do you worry about that like what
- 1:13:26do you think about what ethereum I just
- 1:13:28you know I
- 1:13:30I'm I'm maybe like naively optimistic
- 1:13:33about Bitcoin um I think that because we
- 1:13:36have Bitcoin
- 1:13:37um the transition to sound money isn't
- 1:13:41going to be as catastrophic as some
- 1:13:43people are thinking it's not going to be
- 1:13:45pleasant for people
- 1:13:46um I think that the ethereum uh
- 1:13:49marketing is going to get more
- 1:13:52aggressive but just the fact that
- 1:13:55ethereum itself is inflation and they
- 1:13:59keep changing things and so it doesn't
- 1:14:00have a credible monetary policy and on
- 1:14:03top of that it is money uh it doesn't
- 1:14:06really do all that much else besides B
- 1:14:08money you know you can print your own
- 1:14:10money on top of their money you can
- 1:14:12produce some tokens some nfts which are
- 1:14:16again kind of like forms of money so
- 1:14:18it's just money
- 1:14:20but it's way crappier at being money
- 1:14:22than Bitcoin and so no amount of
- 1:14:25marketing will ultimately overcome that
- 1:14:28um yeah is it gonna get worse sure I
- 1:14:32think what we're seeing is a lot of
- 1:14:36there's more and more people that are
- 1:14:37waking up to this idea that Bitcoin
- 1:14:39mining actually fortifies the grid so
- 1:14:42we're already seeing articles you know
- 1:14:43here in Texas about during the recent
- 1:14:45heat wave
- 1:14:47the grid was able to tap into one
- 1:14:49percent additional energy by just asking
- 1:14:52the miners to shut off production what's
- 1:14:54cool about mining is yeah you just flip
- 1:14:56a switch and then the energy is diverted
- 1:14:58somewhere else yeah and then if they if
- 1:15:00there's too much energy just flip the
- 1:15:02switch back on you start buying the
- 1:15:03cheap energy again so it's a really
- 1:15:05again super useful tool for energy
- 1:15:08production
- 1:15:09um so yeah I think I think the economic
- 1:15:12reality of the fact that Bitcoin is
- 1:15:14sound money
- 1:15:16will just overcome any sort of marketing
- 1:15:19that is levied against it as it has for
- 1:15:21the last 13 years I mean
- 1:15:23I was just talking to some family
- 1:15:25members the other day they're like man
- 1:15:27I've been hearing some really bad stuff
- 1:15:29about Bitcoin and it's like yeah that's
- 1:15:31always been the case there's never been
- 1:15:33a moment I've been in Bitcoin for many
- 1:15:34years and it's always been dumped on by
- 1:15:38everybody right mainstream media
- 1:15:41governments [ __ ] coiners like everybody
- 1:15:44is constantly dumping on bitcoin but the
- 1:15:48thing is anti-fragile it it absorbs all
- 1:15:50that and becomes stronger and the I
- 1:15:53think the clearest example of that
- 1:15:56is or one of the clearest examples is
- 1:15:59when China banned mining last year yep
- 1:16:01you saw a 40 crash in hash rate and then
- 1:16:05it immediately hit you know all-time
- 1:16:07high against after the course of maybe
- 1:16:09like three months
- 1:16:10and the the position that Bitcoin is in
- 1:16:13after the fact is way stronger than
- 1:16:16before because all that hash rate has
- 1:16:17dispersed across the globe yep so when
- 1:16:19you try to ban this thing uh you you
- 1:16:23increase the level of decentralization
- 1:16:25of it it's it gets stronger every time
- 1:16:27you attack it if you've got that shot
- 1:16:29for uh Harry yeah I sent him that he did
- 1:16:32you gotta envelope that's brilliant so
- 1:16:34this is uh every child you need for
- 1:16:36Bitcoin whenever you have an argument
- 1:16:37with somebody discussing Bitcoin just
- 1:16:40sending this
- 1:16:41I can't find it
- 1:16:44I tried to describe Bitcoin to some
- 1:16:47people by showing them the Huddle waves
- 1:16:48to start didn't go that well
- 1:16:52exactly exactly all right do you want to
- 1:16:55give a shout out to Unchained before we
- 1:16:56finish
- 1:16:57sure so uh yeah I'm Phil Geiger I'm uh
- 1:17:00managing director of concierge at
- 1:17:02Unchained and uh what we do is we help
- 1:17:04people hold the private keys to their
- 1:17:06Bitcoin in a way that you're not going
- 1:17:07to lose your Bitcoin so one of the
- 1:17:09biggest problems with self-custody is
- 1:17:11the thought of like oh man I make one
- 1:17:13mistake I've lost my life savings we use
- 1:17:15a type of address that has a bunch of
- 1:17:17redundancies so that if you lose a piece
- 1:17:19of information you haven't lost your
- 1:17:21Bitcoin this is all Native to the
- 1:17:22protocol it's multi-signature and my
- 1:17:25team will help walk you through how to
- 1:17:27set this up from A to Z and then we take
- 1:17:28care of people after the fact what's
- 1:17:31cool about Unchained is from a position
- 1:17:33of extreme security multi-signature
- 1:17:36addresses where you have the keys you
- 1:17:38can then do a bunch of cool Financial uh
- 1:17:40products like you can hold Bitcoin in a
- 1:17:42retirement account in an IRA where you
- 1:17:43actually hold the keys you can buy
- 1:17:45Bitcoin from us directly into Cold
- 1:17:47Storage there's no other counterparties
- 1:17:49that you're dealing with you can take a
- 1:17:50loan using your Bitcoin as collateral
- 1:17:52we're really trying to build a full
- 1:17:54Suite financial services company on top
- 1:17:56of this Foundation of clients holding
- 1:17:58their own keys on top of multi-signature
- 1:18:00which is again just native to bitcoin
- 1:18:02it's one of the tools that Bitcoin
- 1:18:03affords us awesome man all right Phil
- 1:18:06good to see you please go and check out
- 1:18:07Unchained uh we didn't plan to talk
- 1:18:09about any of this so uh yeah here's what
- 1:18:11it is man Cheers Cheers
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