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The Fundamentals of Bitcoin’s Value with Phil Geiger — Transcript

by The Peter McCormack Show · 14,190 words · 2,074 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:02why do you love the Huddle wave
  2. 0:05the Huddle wave is the history of
  3. 0:09Bitcoin and its decentralization over
  4. 0:13time
  5. 0:14so it's a very complicated chart there's
  6. 0:17a lot going on but what's amazing about
  7. 0:19it is you get to see exactly how people
  8. 0:23have been behaving with their Bitcoin on
  9. 0:26the base layer so what we're looking at
  10. 0:28is the black line is the US dollar price
  11. 0:31uh-huh
  12. 0:33all those colored lines are different
  13. 0:36age bands of Bitcoin that have been
  14. 0:40living in Bitcoin addresses so all
  15. 0:42Bitcoin live in addresses tracked by the
  16. 0:45blockchain which is a database of all
  17. 0:46the transactions do we know which ones
  18. 0:48are lost here
  19. 0:49we can speculate the ones in the upper
  20. 0:52right hand corner the purple and blue
  21. 0:54ones are very likely lost because those
  22. 0:57Bitcoin have been sitting at addresses
  23. 0:59for longer than 10 years that's the
  24. 1:01purple band the blue band is seven to
  25. 1:04ten years and so it's very likely that a
  26. 1:07majority of those are lost in that kind
  27. 1:09of correlates with what people believe
  28. 1:11to be lost so in about four four million
  29. 1:13right yeah something like that two to
  30. 1:15four million so yeah what I really like
  31. 1:16about it is you can you can see people's
  32. 1:19behaviors during the the pumps and the
  33. 1:22dumps so
  34. 1:23um during like the 2017-2018 run up to
  35. 1:2720K you see some of those upper bands
  36. 1:30starting to contract right the the light
  37. 1:32green band which is the people who've
  38. 1:34been holding Bitcoin for three to five
  39. 1:35years uh sorry the lighter green is two
  40. 1:37to three years the darker green is three
  41. 1:39to five years you start to see those
  42. 1:40getting smaller and smaller and that's
  43. 1:41when those longer term huddlers likely
  44. 1:44started selling their Bitcoin when
  45. 1:46Bitcoin hit 20K they're like wow this is
  46. 1:49crazy I've been holding thing since
  47. 1:50eighty dollars I'm gonna you know sell
  48. 1:52it for some other currency and to
  49. 1:55improve my life
  50. 1:56but what else was that you buy a house
  51. 1:59get a car buy some chairs finally the
  52. 2:03what's really cool about right now
  53. 2:07um so all the way to the right side of
  54. 2:08the chart is
  55. 2:10our run up to 69k what we didn't see was
  56. 2:15the large the the older age bands
  57. 2:19Contracting as much so if you look at
  58. 2:20the light green band and you look at the
  59. 2:22dark green band they didn't really
  60. 2:24contract they kind of stayed uh stable
  61. 2:27and then now over the last month or so
  62. 2:30they're actually starting to grow which
  63. 2:31means in my opinion that the people who
  64. 2:34bought when Bitcoin was 700
  65. 2:38were pretty unimpressed by this run to
  66. 2:4169k they're like I'm not I'm not selling
  67. 2:43my Bitcoin at 69k this thing's going to
  68. 2:45a million or whatever uh and so they
  69. 2:48didn't sell so all of the all of the uh
  70. 2:52pump to 69k and the dump now down to 20K
  71. 2:55looks to me like it's come out of the
  72. 2:58newer Bitcoin so the lower half of the
  73. 3:00chart the yellow the orange the red and
  74. 3:04those are all the the d-gens at coinbase
  75. 3:06uh gambling on board apes and uh you
  76. 3:09know selling their Bitcoin for or Luna
  77. 3:12and then losing their shirts so the
  78. 3:15long-term hodlers here have been I would
  79. 3:18say bored by this last run up and just
  80. 3:21no I agree I've been bored by it 69k
  81. 3:24yeah dude we were promised like 100k
  82. 3:28200k 300K
  83. 3:30I was promised a foundational reset of
  84. 3:33the entire global economy
  85. 3:35uh that's why I'm here uh the the price
  86. 3:38in in dollars is is just kind of fun
  87. 3:41it's something that I like to uh pay
  88. 3:43attention to just because I you know I
  89. 3:45work in Bitcoin full time and definitely
  90. 3:47impacts our business but for me I'm here
  91. 3:51for the Long Haul and my utxos are
  92. 3:53starting to get uh older and older and
  93. 3:56older and they will continue to get
  94. 3:57older do you know what else this looks
  95. 3:59like
  96. 4:01remember painting by numbers yeah
  97. 4:04it's like this looks like right you're
  98. 4:06gonna feel you're gonna paint a like a a
  99. 4:09rocky Outback
  100. 4:11and then you're gonna get catch the
  101. 4:12forest in the background in the sky yeah
  102. 4:14it's the Bob Ross of this beautiful
  103. 4:16Bitcoin you know just happy little bands
  104. 4:18yeah I love like little utxo bands so
  105. 4:21what happens if say
  106. 4:24say I had like some Bitcoin and cool
  107. 4:26storage and I signed up to uh Unchained
  108. 4:30and set up a multi-sig yeah those coins
  109. 4:33move
  110. 4:37um but then so you have to have coins so
  111. 4:39what what you do when you sign up for
  112. 4:40multi-sig is my team the concierge team
  113. 4:43at Unchained will send you Hardware
  114. 4:45wallets we'll walk you through setting
  115. 4:47up the hardware wallets building the
  116. 4:49most secure type of Bitcoin address
  117. 4:50which is the multi-sig address and then
  118. 4:52once you have that it's your choice you
  119. 4:54can either buy Bitcoin from us into your
  120. 4:56address or if you've purchased Bitcoin
  121. 4:58somewhere else you can then move it to
  122. 4:59your address I didn't ask for a sales
  123. 5:01pitch did I this is a sales pitch come
  124. 5:03on man you laid this one up dude I was
  125. 5:05saying with this I would say if I move
  126. 5:07my coins yeah then
  127. 5:10are they considered moved here yeah so
  128. 5:12if you have if you have coins at
  129. 5:14coinbase that's this is what I was
  130. 5:16trying to get to is yeah if if you have
  131. 5:17coins of coinbase and you're like I need
  132. 5:19to improve my security you would have to
  133. 5:21move your coins into a new address which
  134. 5:23would reset uh the age of them right so
  135. 5:26this is entirely accurate because it
  136. 5:28could be people just moving coins well
  137. 5:30it is entirely accurate for the movement
  138. 5:32of all the coins now the rationale
  139. 5:34behind the movement we don't know for
  140. 5:36certain exactly so there's a lot of
  141. 5:38speculation but I just think it's cool
  142. 5:40to see how and you can start to see the
  143. 5:43waves of adoption over time and what's
  144. 5:47interesting about right now is there's
  145. 5:50never been a time in bitcoin's history
  146. 5:52where the Bitcoin has been sitting for a
  147. 5:55majority of the Bitcoin has been sitting
  148. 5:56for this long so really yeah so if you
  149. 5:58look at the yellow band that's the one
  150. 6:00year age band uh it's very thick and
  151. 6:03it's starting to take up a majority like
  152. 6:05everything above that has been sitting
  153. 6:07for many years it's not going anywhere
  154. 6:08yeah that's the one year band and and
  155. 6:10you can just see it kind of getting
  156. 6:12lower and lower on the overall chart and
  157. 6:15that's because now about 70 percent of
  158. 6:18all Bitcoin has just been sitting for I
  159. 6:21think either longer than six months or
  160. 6:22longer than a year it's very fascinating
  161. 6:25um so all of the churn and the the price
  162. 6:28uh speculation
  163. 6:31is happening with in my opinion exchange
  164. 6:34coins yeah for the most part it's like a
  165. 6:37smaller and smaller number of exchange
  166. 6:39coins are what's causing all of these
  167. 6:41price fluctuations so how much do you
  168. 6:43think uh we were affected by what
  169. 6:44happened with Terra Luna three arrows
  170. 6:47Celsius do you think that kind of
  171. 6:50do you think I destroyed a bull market
  172. 6:52that was going to continue
  173. 6:54I don't think so I think those you think
  174. 6:55we were done I think those primarily
  175. 6:57were destroyed by the Federal Reserve
  176. 6:58raising rates okay like I think all of
  177. 7:01at this point all of crypto is uh low
  178. 7:05rate you know zero percent rate uh Mal
  179. 7:09investment and as soon as people start
  180. 7:13um charging to you know loan you money
  181. 7:15that's when all these crazy
  182. 7:17malinvestments stop making sense so
  183. 7:19anything I mean yes the the Luna stuff
  184. 7:23the 3ac uh broader crypto is really
  185. 7:26reliant on people having way too much uh
  186. 7:29cash on hand so that they can make crazy
  187. 7:31speculative Investments and that's one
  188. 7:34of the primary differences between
  189. 7:35crypto and Bitcoin is Bitcoin is another
  190. 7:37currency that you can save in for the
  191. 7:38long term which is what we're seeing
  192. 7:40here a lot of people are saving in it
  193. 7:41for the long term whereas 3ac Terra Luna
  194. 7:45those are all you know short-term
  195. 7:48speculative you know in a lot of ways
  196. 7:51Ponzi scheme Celsius
  197. 7:53what was interesting about well you know
  198. 7:56the Luna stuff is kind of interesting as
  199. 7:58well because it's like this was marketed
  200. 8:00as a stable coin right so there's a lot
  201. 8:02of people out there who are like or
  202. 8:03maybe not Luna whatever
  203. 8:07uh there's a lot of stable coins out
  204. 8:10there and people are kind of interested
  205. 8:12in them because they're like oh it's
  206. 8:13helping introduce crypto to the broader
  207. 8:15world it's helping to give
  208. 8:19um you know people without access to the
  209. 8:21dollar access to the dollar
  210. 8:23and in theory that might be true but in
  211. 8:25practice what we see is these stable
  212. 8:27coins are anything but stable right
  213. 8:29they're centralized entities that have
  214. 8:32lots of additional risks so you mean the
  215. 8:35algorithmic ones both but even tether as
  216. 8:38yeah I mean they they just keep hopping
  217. 8:40around to different jurisdictions trying
  218. 8:42to find uh a place that they can you
  219. 8:44know
  220. 8:45issue their tether at some point I think
  221. 8:48they're going to get clamped down on
  222. 8:50there's like a systemic risk to tether
  223. 8:51because it's centralized so at some
  224. 8:54point I think they're going to be shut
  225. 8:56down and then there's you know your
  226. 8:58stable coin is nothing it's not stable
  227. 8:59yeah that's a shame because uh Alex
  228. 9:02clerstein spends a lot of time
  229. 9:04explaining how useful these digital
  230. 9:06dollars on a black on a blockchain are
  231. 9:09you know and I get it they are useful
  232. 9:11but they are also very risky yeah and
  233. 9:15I actually think so a lot of people look
  234. 9:17at Bitcoin they're like it's very
  235. 9:19volatile it's very risky Bitcoin in my
  236. 9:21opinion is extremely low risk you know
  237. 9:24pretty much exactly what you're getting
  238. 9:25you're getting X percentage of 21
  239. 9:27million you can hold the keys to your
  240. 9:30Bitcoin and you can run a node and
  241. 9:32verify and nobody can inflate the supply
  242. 9:36so I don't think it's very risky once
  243. 9:38you kind of understand what it is how to
  244. 9:40use it extremely low risk very high
  245. 9:42volatility but I don't think volatility
  246. 9:44is necessarily risk on the other side
  247. 9:47well that depends on your lifestyle who
  248. 9:49you are where you live you know if you
  249. 9:51are living in a poor country and you
  250. 9:53have very limited money that is a
  251. 9:55significant risk to your ability to feed
  252. 9:59your family it's not a risk though it's
  253. 10:01like it the volatility is maybe not
  254. 10:03palatable to you like you shouldn't go
  255. 10:05out and slam all your life savings into
  256. 10:07this really volatile asset yeah if you
  257. 10:09can't handle the volatility of course
  258. 10:10but if you understand that there's
  259. 10:12volatility then it's no but it presents
  260. 10:14you a risk with being able to afford
  261. 10:16like the volatility presents a risk to
  262. 10:18your ability to afford what you need for
  263. 10:19your family it's not that the asset
  264. 10:21itself is a risk but the volatility
  265. 10:23introduces risk into your life
  266. 10:25I think that that's assuming that they
  267. 10:28need to have it right now well most yeah
  268. 10:32not most I wouldn't know the numbers but
  269. 10:34I would expect a large number of people
  270. 10:36perhaps billions live hand to mouth yeah
  271. 10:39and they're the people we most want to
  272. 10:41get out the situation they're in because
  273. 10:43they're either living in jurisdictions
  274. 10:44with high inflation authoritarian
  275. 10:46regimes uh uh restrictions on what they
  276. 10:49can do and how they can trade yeah so
  277. 10:52they're probably some of the people need
  278. 10:53it most definitely but
  279. 10:55their ability to start using it and
  280. 10:58accepting it and having it in their life
  281. 10:59it just there is a risk you know if
  282. 11:01you're living hand to mouth and if
  283. 11:03you're living in like turkey you've got
  284. 11:0480 inflation and your options are like
  285. 11:06Bitcoin whatever the currency in Turkey
  286. 11:08is the lower is it yeah or the like a US
  287. 11:10dollar stable coin like the choice is
  288. 11:12pretty obvious yeah I mean in in those
  289. 11:14what is it depends what's it what's the
  290. 11:16obvious choice if you're living hand to
  291. 11:17mouth
  292. 11:18so it's the dollar yeah yeah
  293. 11:21I think that would make the most sense
  294. 11:24for somebody who is experiencing like
  295. 11:26hyperinflation right now but again like
  296. 11:29that's that's a cohort of people who
  297. 11:31have been completely screwed by Central
  298. 11:33Banking like the absolute destruction of
  299. 11:36civilization in their society is because
  300. 11:39of Central Banking destroying the value
  301. 11:42of their life savings so like while we
  302. 11:46do want to help while Bitcoin can help
  303. 11:48these people over the long term the
  304. 11:51damage has already kind of been done to
  305. 11:52them and so they need an immediate
  306. 11:55uh solution right they need something
  307. 11:57they can't
  308. 11:58find a solution that's going to help
  309. 11:59them over 10 years they need to find
  310. 12:02food today and tomorrow for their family
  311. 12:04and so you have to look at something
  312. 12:06else but interestingly enough like the
  313. 12:09US dollar right now is experiencing
  314. 12:11seriously High inflation right so yeah
  315. 12:13even even the dollar is becoming a
  316. 12:16riskier and riskier thing to hold
  317. 12:17because it's eight percent inflation
  318. 12:19that's the official term right in
  319. 12:21reality it's double digits yeah it
  320. 12:23depends again it depends where you are I
  321. 12:24mean the uh the dollar has dropped uh
  322. 12:27from 1 38 to the pound so it's 112 I
  323. 12:31think today and it got as low as 105. so
  324. 12:36um it's a better asset it was a better
  325. 12:38asset holder than the pound
  326. 12:40the king's pound
  327. 12:42I guess as well it depends how quickly
  328. 12:44you're turning around your money if you
  329. 12:45turn around your money really quickly
  330. 12:46Bitcoin volatility doesn't really matter
  331. 12:48well so when I was with the crypto
  332. 12:50bastardo in Venezuela he holds Bitcoin
  333. 12:54and all he does is every week transfers
  334. 12:56the amount he needs in Bolivar out and
  335. 12:58he would explain to me like he says even
  336. 13:00even when the price of Bitcoins drop in
  337. 13:02I'm going up in terms of the Bolivar
  338. 13:04because inflation is so high so there
  339. 13:06are scenarios to work through it sure um
  340. 13:09but I think I think from a high level
  341. 13:12perspective like the whole global
  342. 13:14economy think of it as the Titanic right
  343. 13:17uh it's starting to break apart and
  344. 13:20there's parts that have already broken
  345. 13:21off in our sinking and then there's a
  346. 13:23few people kind of left and there's this
  347. 13:25life raft called Bitcoin and uh you're
  348. 13:27in like a stormy choppy sea and Bitcoins
  349. 13:30very volatile and it's bouncing all over
  350. 13:31the place for the people who are still
  351. 13:33on the ship like that might be a good
  352. 13:34option or you should start exploring the
  353. 13:37life raft for the people who are already
  354. 13:38sinking like
  355. 13:40I don't know you have to figure out your
  356. 13:42hand to mouth at that point like you're
  357. 13:44scrambling it's a different situation so
  358. 13:45that's
  359. 13:46you know while I really want Bitcoin to
  360. 13:49and I think Bitcoin will deliver
  361. 13:50property rights and value to all 8
  362. 13:52billion people in the world but it's not
  363. 13:54gonna solve all their problems today and
  364. 13:57what we can do is people who still have
  365. 13:59resources who are still able to uh save
  366. 14:03in it should start saving in it because
  367. 14:05that's when um you can actually protect
  368. 14:06your purchasing power and avoid syncing
  369. 14:08did you see the Bangladesh news today no
  370. 14:11search for Bangladesh blackouts this is
  371. 14:14[ __ ] crazy
  372. 14:16I think this is just another signal
  373. 14:19because when you said the the Titanic
  374. 14:21it's starting to break apart you wait
  375. 14:23till you see this most Bangladesh left
  376. 14:26without power after the National Grid
  377. 14:27failure so large waves of Bangladesh
  378. 14:30were left without electricity on Tuesday
  379. 14:31of a partial grid failure government
  380. 14:33official said adding the authorities
  381. 14:35work to gradually restore power to the
  382. 14:37country of 168 million people
  383. 14:4075 to 80 of Bangladesh appear experience
  384. 14:44blackouts
  385. 14:45uh I and I think it was because the
  386. 14:48problem there in sporting actual gas and
  387. 14:51the increase in the price of natural gas
  388. 14:52wow I mean Bangladesh is a poor country
  389. 14:54can afford it that's like a whole
  390. 14:55country going offline of a population
  391. 14:59over doubled you can obviously
  392. 15:00population UK 72 million yeah that's
  393. 15:03more than double the population of the
  394. 15:05UK it's going [ __ ] offline yeah it
  395. 15:07says here 96 million people lost power
  396. 15:09that's more than the UK that's insane I
  397. 15:12think Bitcoin has really taught me two
  398. 15:14very important lessons one don't [ __ ]
  399. 15:16with the money two don't [ __ ] with the
  400. 15:18energy yes it's crazy to me that in 2022
  401. 15:22we have entire countries of 100 plus
  402. 15:25million people in the darkness when
  403. 15:28electricity was invented or discovered
  404. 15:30you know
  405. 15:31over 100 years ago I think in what the
  406. 15:331800s 1700s maybe 1800s maybe and we've
  407. 15:36been innovating since then but over the
  408. 15:39last maybe a few decades I feel like
  409. 15:40we've gotten significantly worse at
  410. 15:43energy production and power delivery and
  411. 15:46so on well what would Ben say that is
  412. 15:48where would he where would he go and
  413. 15:50point on a chart I can guess which year
  414. 15:521971 yeah ah he would go and point to
  415. 15:551971 but like quite interestingly it was
  416. 15:57Elon Musk who came out and said well we
  417. 16:00went to the moon in 1968 we've not been
  418. 16:02back and I don't know the what year did
  419. 16:04you go to the we didn't go you didn't
  420. 16:06invite us yeah you guys weren't invited
  421. 16:07that makes sense yeah we didn't go I've
  422. 16:09seen what you guys do at stag news we
  423. 16:12probably sent a probe up to the moon at
  424. 16:15some point with the with our German
  425. 16:18friends or something the last mission
  426. 16:19was 1972. yeah 1972 and but also people
  427. 16:23rightly pointed out uh when when was
  428. 16:26Concord when did Concord launch 80s
  429. 16:30I don't know I know introduce 76. 1976
  430. 16:33of Concord was introduced two years
  431. 16:35before I was born and I'm an old [ __ ]
  432. 16:39um and we haven't had like they
  433. 16:42decommissioned them after the French the
  434. 16:44Air France one crashed in was it in the
  435. 16:46UK it was in Paris it was going to the
  436. 16:48UK that was it weird plane to get from I
  437. 16:51take about three minutes
  438. 16:53um but yeah so they decommissioned them
  439. 16:55and we haven't had a uh super selling a
  440. 16:58check since it's crazy we're going
  441. 17:00backwards in a lot of ways we are and
  442. 17:03at the same time we're seeing uh
  443. 17:05inequality around the world increase and
  444. 17:08we're seeing power centralize yep and I
  445. 17:11think that's the Fiat system so don't
  446. 17:14[ __ ] with the money don't [ __ ] with the
  447. 17:15energy don't [ __ ] with the food as well
  448. 17:17yeah that's energy
  449. 17:19human energy yeah yeah I guess so
  450. 17:22um now I completely agree with you I
  451. 17:24mean we are I've never known a time like
  452. 17:26this in the UK it's
  453. 17:28it's weird and a little bit scary
  454. 17:31um just seeing what people are facing in
  455. 17:32terms of their energy costs how we can
  456. 17:35suddenly go from a point where people's
  457. 17:37energies bills a thousand pound a year
  458. 17:39to five thousand pound a year which
  459. 17:41would be for some people 50 of their
  460. 17:43income yeah to just be able to do that
  461. 17:46in a matter of month it's super scary
  462. 17:47there's nothing like that has ever
  463. 17:48happened in mind I can't remember
  464. 17:49anything like that it's a travesty it's
  465. 17:51it's basic uh basic things to power your
  466. 17:56Society right literally to power it like
  467. 17:59you need to have the lights on to have
  468. 18:01functional hospitals you need to have
  469. 18:03lights on to stay warm in the winter
  470. 18:05just basic necessities
  471. 18:08and issues that we've solved 100 plus
  472. 18:11years ago are rearing their ugly hand
  473. 18:14head again as
  474. 18:17the currencies start breaking down well
  475. 18:19there's a there's a second layer to that
  476. 18:20as well because there's the lack of
  477. 18:22innovation say with nuclear I think most
  478. 18:24people are generally agreed that
  479. 18:26um the decommission of nuclear plants a
  480. 18:28lack of investment in nuclear plants Was
  481. 18:29Naive uh the green lobby was allowed to
  482. 18:33um
  483. 18:33uh essentially uh petition for these you
  484. 18:36know this kind of anti-nuclear
  485. 18:39um agenda uh following Fukushima and you
  486. 18:42know various other things so I think
  487. 18:44that's one thing but another thing in
  488. 18:46the UK is that we sold off
  489. 18:49all our energy to the free market to be
  490. 18:51developed and whether or not you are uh
  491. 18:54believe in the nation state it is useful
  492. 18:57for a nation state to have energy
  493. 18:58security I mean the US kind of has it
  494. 19:01because you produce a lot of oil we
  495. 19:03don't produce a lot of oil we produce
  496. 19:05some we don't really have energy
  497. 19:06security we're buying all our energy
  498. 19:08from across Europe at the moment yeah
  499. 19:09what do you mean when you say that the
  500. 19:11UK sold off their energy to the yeah so
  501. 19:14so I we import a lot of our energy yeah
  502. 19:16that's just the way it is we have like
  503. 19:18what three nuclear plants
  504. 19:20is it one in the Hinckley there's one in
  505. 19:23seller field as well yeah like we have
  506. 19:25like three nuclear plants we we don't
  507. 19:27you know we used to produce most of our
  508. 19:29energy I think it was coal based yeah
  509. 19:31but as we closed down the yeah rightly
  510. 19:34so because
  511. 19:35coal is the disgusting and it could have
  512. 19:37been replaced with nuclear it's called
  513. 19:38more disgusting than freezing
  514. 19:41yeah but what I'm saying is there was
  515. 19:43there's there was no need to have to
  516. 19:44make that trade-off it you know if
  517. 19:46you're gonna if you're gonna close down
  518. 19:48your coal plants or replace them with
  519. 19:49nuclear that makes sense it's cleaner
  520. 19:51but who was closing down the coal plants
  521. 19:53and and like who was selling it I mean
  522. 19:55was it these private companies or was it
  523. 19:57oh there's a government no it's a
  524. 19:58government does the government closed
  525. 20:00down all the mines in there it wasn't
  526. 20:01under like I mean I don't know much
  527. 20:03about this yeah it's the I mean the same
  528. 20:04thing as like the Dutch uh Farmers right
  529. 20:06now right it's like the Dutch government
  530. 20:08is saying oh we want to we gotta cut
  531. 20:10nitrogen to meet these X Y and Z climate
  532. 20:12goals and uh
  533. 20:15it's not the farmers that are saying hey
  534. 20:17we need to really cut nitrogen they're
  535. 20:18saying hey we can't produce enough food
  536. 20:19now and so we're gonna go on strike so
  537. 20:21it's the same thing it sounds similar to
  538. 20:23me in the UK you guys had energy
  539. 20:25security and then some bureaucrat
  540. 20:28decided in order to meet or achieve some
  541. 20:32goals which in hindsight probably were
  542. 20:35not achieved we're going to shut down
  543. 20:37the production of energy and X Y or Z
  544. 20:39fashion because it's you know it's not
  545. 20:41fashionable today and Marty Ben would
  546. 20:42say those [ __ ] Central planners and
  547. 20:44he's right and now someone's being paid
  548. 20:45to per to pause the closure what's this
  549. 20:48closure of coal Power Station set to be
  550. 20:50delayed oh so we've still got Coal Power
  551. 20:52to present UK blackouts they're probably
  552. 20:54spinning up coal at this point probably
  553. 20:56they probably are yeah they probably are
  554. 20:59um what I what I've also kind of
  555. 21:00realized or the way I think about energy
  556. 21:03is
  557. 21:05while we might not personally like one
  558. 21:08form of energy production over the other
  559. 21:11the pricing mechanism typically does a
  560. 21:14really good job of demonstrating or
  561. 21:16elevating the type of energy that is the
  562. 21:18most efficient so what Bitcoin uh has
  563. 21:22taught me in Bitcoin mining in
  564. 21:24particular is that Bitcoin mining is
  565. 21:26actually a component of the energy
  566. 21:28production industry to help make energy
  567. 21:30production as efficient as possible and
  568. 21:33that is the most environmentally
  569. 21:36friendly if we're producing
  570. 21:38energy efficiently
  571. 21:41than we are not wasting anything right
  572. 21:43it's not inefficient
  573. 21:45um and the pricing system typically does
  574. 21:47a good job of demonstrating which is the
  575. 21:49most efficient which is the cheapest so
  576. 21:52even though but not the most
  577. 21:54environmentally friendly uh I do think
  578. 21:56it is the most environmentally friendly
  579. 21:58because
  580. 22:00if it's really expensive to produce this
  581. 22:02energy then you have a lot of external
  582. 22:04inputs going into it you have teams of
  583. 22:06scientists you have all kinds of
  584. 22:08manufacturing and different production
  585. 22:09facilities you have many orders of
  586. 22:11effects Beyond just the actual burning
  587. 22:14of the coal whatever you you mean the
  588. 22:17whole supply chain to allow absolutely
  589. 22:19right but there's different but there's
  590. 22:21different types of uh ways you can
  591. 22:24measure environmental friendliness so
  592. 22:26for example if you are one of those
  593. 22:29people that believes which I can't
  594. 22:30believe I've been saying about this but
  595. 22:32uh increasing carbon in the atmosphere
  596. 22:34is you know uh will warm the planet and
  597. 22:37leads to a change in climate which I do
  598. 22:39believe
  599. 22:41um that may be it may be preferable to
  600. 22:44have something that has leads to more
  601. 22:45e-waste rather than increasing carbon in
  602. 22:48the atmosphere both are environmental
  603. 22:50issues he waste is an environmental
  604. 22:52issue
  605. 22:53um carbon is an environmental issue but
  606. 22:55you might have a preference over one
  607. 22:56because you know E-Waste okay might be
  608. 22:58preferable to bury E-Waste or looking to
  609. 23:01recycling over increasing carbon in the
  610. 23:03atmosphere which has potentially
  611. 23:05catastrophic effects but you're assuming
  612. 23:07that the production of the E-Waste
  613. 23:09doesn't increase the carbon in the
  614. 23:10atmosphere yeah so if you want to go
  615. 23:11like full like yeah you but you have to
  616. 23:15like map out the entire supply chain
  617. 23:16yeah and that's a lot of work that's why
  618. 23:18we have to think from first principles
  619. 23:19yeah we have to think about what's a
  620. 23:21signal that we can use to actually tell
  621. 23:25us what is the most efficient form of
  622. 23:26energy production it's typically what is
  623. 23:29the most what is the cheapest what is
  624. 23:30the most affordable
  625. 23:32I would want to know if someone's
  626. 23:33actually done the work that correlates
  627. 23:36uh the the price of energy production
  628. 23:39with the total or the the percentage of
  629. 23:43uh increase of carbon well I think that
  630. 23:45there's a lot of people who have done a
  631. 23:47lot of work on that and they have come
  632. 23:49to decide that you know and I'm not
  633. 23:51trying to pick on any one form of energy
  634. 23:52yeah but say like coal and gas and oil
  635. 23:55are bad and solar winds nuclear Etc et
  636. 24:00cetera are good
  637. 24:01but the problem is since Central
  638. 24:05planners have pushed us towards One
  639. 24:06Direction
  640. 24:07now we have people who are spending a
  641. 24:10majority of their income trying to heat
  642. 24:11their home
  643. 24:13so there's unintended outcomes to any
  644. 24:16sort of like centralized planning that
  645. 24:18pushes you in one direction or another
  646. 24:19when the market is trying to tell you
  647. 24:21hey actually right now natural gas is
  648. 24:24the most efficient way to power our
  649. 24:25homes or oil or
  650. 24:28hydropower I'm not trying to pick one or
  651. 24:30the other but just saying that the
  652. 24:31pricing mechanism when there's no
  653. 24:33subsidies involved does a really good
  654. 24:35job of telling people this is the most
  655. 24:37efficient type of energy that we can be
  656. 24:39using today sure I'm still not buying
  657. 24:40the the price dictates there's a
  658. 24:43correlation with carbon on the price on
  659. 24:45the entire well I just needs I need a
  660. 24:46receipt we can look at we can we can and
  661. 24:49this is maybe the Austrian uh economic
  662. 24:53style of thinking and I consider myself
  663. 24:55a student of Austrian economics but if
  664. 24:59you if you think about this scenario of
  665. 25:01a Bitcoin miner right you have an Asic
  666. 25:04chip
  667. 25:05you want to go you want to be profitable
  668. 25:07you want to earn Bitcoin you need to go
  669. 25:09find the cheapest form of energy right
  670. 25:11so the cheapest form of energy is where
  671. 25:13you plug in your minor and you're
  672. 25:14profitable even if you have a chip
  673. 25:16that's you know an S9 which is like five
  674. 25:17years old at this point uh
  675. 25:20and so I do think that
  676. 25:22Bitcoin is a really good uh
  677. 25:26it's a good teacher it tells us okay
  678. 25:27this right now is the most efficient way
  679. 25:30that we can be capturing energy so it's
  680. 25:33like
  681. 25:34um
  682. 25:35you know before China banned Bitcoin
  683. 25:37mining the miners were migrating with
  684. 25:41the the Rainy Seasons because China had
  685. 25:43these massive hydroelectric dams that
  686. 25:45during the Rainy seasons were way over
  687. 25:48producing electricity they were just
  688. 25:50wasting energy that they had captured
  689. 25:52and Bitcoin helps us to actually capture
  690. 25:55that energy monetize it so that these
  691. 25:57companies can invest in more efficient
  692. 25:59energy production so yeah I just think
  693. 26:02that the pricing mechanism does the best
  694. 26:03job of demonstrating what's the most
  695. 26:05efficient no I agree with that but I
  696. 26:07fundamentally agree with that I just
  697. 26:08don't think it correlates to carbon in
  698. 26:11the atmosphere I just think it's the
  699. 26:13cheapest to produce
  700. 26:14I think it correlates the carbon in the
  701. 26:16atmosphere because again the people who
  702. 26:19are working on the other types of energy
  703. 26:22nuclear like it might take 50 000 people
  704. 26:25working 10 years to build one nuclear
  705. 26:29plant how much carbon have all those
  706. 26:31people been off-putting for 10 years
  707. 26:33before we can now turn on our nuclear
  708. 26:36plant and start seeing Zero carbon
  709. 26:38emissions
  710. 26:39like it's nothing exists in a bubble no
  711. 26:42of course but like somebody has to do
  712. 26:44the work there has to be receipts for
  713. 26:45this otherwise it's speculation like if
  714. 26:47there are no receipts for this or
  715. 26:48somebody's done the work the pricing
  716. 26:50mechanism is the receipt dude do you
  717. 26:53understand what I'm saying here Danny I
  718. 26:55do understand but I think I think you're
  719. 26:57talking at Cross purposes on some of
  720. 26:58this because I think like Phil's point
  721. 27:00is if you charge a Tesla from like an
  722. 27:02electricity that's generated by Cold
  723. 27:04power plant like what you're really
  724. 27:05doing right no no no no a bunch of heavy
  725. 27:08metals you've like Tesla employs you
  726. 27:10know 100 000 people and they've been
  727. 27:12engineering these cars for a decade
  728. 27:15and then you plug it in like
  729. 27:18yeah but no no I understand what you
  730. 27:20what you're saying is that the when
  731. 27:22people are looking at the energy mix and
  732. 27:24looking at Green energy they aren't
  733. 27:26considering the entire supply chain okay
  734. 27:28but or the outcome even I would say like
  735. 27:32the outcome is is where is what we're
  736. 27:34stuck with right now where we have a
  737. 27:36global energy crisis Bangladesh was left
  738. 27:38without power for 168 million people and
  739. 27:42I imagine you know I'm not familiar with
  740. 27:43Bangladeshi energy policies but I
  741. 27:46imagine that they're playing the same
  742. 27:47game as many of the other countries are
  743. 27:49which is trying to go One Direction or
  744. 27:51another right but sorry but the thing
  745. 27:53I'm not buying is is the lowest price
  746. 27:56uh most efficient energy production is
  747. 27:58the one that produces the least carbon
  748. 28:00like where is the correlation
  749. 28:03I think it gets even more confused when
  750. 28:05you add in like government grants and
  751. 28:07subsidies of course but but again we're
  752. 28:10confused the the question I'm asking is
  753. 28:13how does the uh efficiency of production
  754. 28:17dictate the
  755. 28:20um the level of carbon that's produced I
  756. 28:21don't see the correlation yeah I don't I
  757. 28:23don't think that there's a way so I
  758. 28:25don't think any carbon measures are
  759. 28:26accurate today
  760. 28:28first of all like because how do you
  761. 28:29actually so I was thinking about this uh
  762. 28:32the other day there was a which club it
  763. 28:34measures any of them
  764. 28:36when a company says I'm carbon neutral
  765. 28:40like what does your company do how many
  766. 28:42people does your company employ like if
  767. 28:44you're making if you're Manufacturing
  768. 28:48plastic toys right like our company was
  769. 28:53built to manufacture plastic toys can
  770. 28:55anything you ever do be carbon neutral
  771. 28:59so it's like all these you can you can
  772. 29:01buy carbon offsets but your whole
  773. 29:03company was established to manufacture
  774. 29:05plastic widgets which produce carbon
  775. 29:07which you try to sell to people like
  776. 29:10this whole I think this whole scheme of
  777. 29:12trying to measure carbon output is
  778. 29:15um it's a it's a racket it's in a lot of
  779. 29:17ways like a [ __ ] coin like carbon energy
  780. 29:19uh
  781. 29:20credits like you can't accurately
  782. 29:23measure that and it's totally dependent
  783. 29:26on what your industry is and then that's
  784. 29:29also subjective like maybe I don't think
  785. 29:32that
  786. 29:33uh this plastic
  787. 29:36you know toy company should exist but
  788. 29:39they're selling a ton of plastic toys to
  789. 29:41kids who are very happy and it's
  790. 29:43improving their lives and so who am I to
  791. 29:45say this plastic toy company is
  792. 29:48you know producing a bunch of excess
  793. 29:51carbon that we don't need like it's all
  794. 29:52subjective no I I think I think you're
  795. 29:54right the measurement is very difficult
  796. 29:56and and setting what should and
  797. 29:59shouldn't be done is totally subjective
  798. 30:00I agree with you that I mean we have the
  799. 30:02same experience as a Bitcoin now where
  800. 30:03people talk about the uh the energy use
  801. 30:06of Bitcoin and then you know rightly so
  802. 30:08I Bitcoin say uh Christmas trees
  803. 30:11well the I think the biggest irony to me
  804. 30:14there is I truly believe that there is
  805. 30:17nothing better for the environment than
  806. 30:21humans adopting a form of money that
  807. 30:24encourages them to save instead of over
  808. 30:26consume I agree like yeah I love it over
  809. 30:29consumption and is the cause of lots of
  810. 30:34additional waste and malinvestment and
  811. 30:36again that's the subject that's my
  812. 30:37opinion
  813. 30:38but what I've noticed with myself is
  814. 30:40when I started saving in a form of money
  815. 30:42that can't be debased and actually
  816. 30:44increases in value over time I'm a lot
  817. 30:46less likely to go out and buy a second
  818. 30:49jet ski you know I'm happy with my one
  819. 30:51jet ski I don't need another jet ski
  820. 30:54you do what are we gonna write oh [ __ ]
  821. 30:57you should have had three jet skis I'll
  822. 30:58get you guys one of those uh one of
  823. 31:00those like try tricycle powered uh have
  824. 31:03you got have you got a jet ski not yet
  825. 31:05I'll probably go pick one up after this
  826. 31:07though because that sounds fun you guys
  827. 31:09want to go later should we go after this
  828. 31:12kid uh yeah I mean I think we're going
  829. 31:16to talk about this today but uh um it's
  830. 31:18quite interesting
  831. 31:19um we had Nate Harmon on the other day
  832. 31:22yeah uh great guy uh one of his jobs is
  833. 31:25to go up to one of the mountains uh in
  834. 31:28Hawaii and take the measurements and
  835. 31:31unambiguously
  836. 31:33the carbon is increasing in the
  837. 31:35atmosphere at a massive rate
  838. 31:36and he's measuring this
  839. 31:39at the top of a volcano no no no but
  840. 31:42there's a there's a really good reason
  841. 31:43to yeah like yeah any it's like the high
  842. 31:46who's saying it's the highest mountain
  843. 31:46in the world like if you measure from
  844. 31:48the sea floor or whatever yeah and and
  845. 31:50he goes to the top of the mountain so
  846. 31:51he's out of any kind of like
  847. 31:53contaminated wind from LA or whatever it
  848. 31:55might be so it was like a point to it
  849. 31:57and his peers around the world are doing
  850. 31:58the same sure and it's unambiguous that
  851. 32:01the amount of carbon in the atmosphere
  852. 32:02is increasing
  853. 32:03um I almost find the point that anyone
  854. 32:05who wants to argue against that must be
  855. 32:07being paid by somebody because uh the
  856. 32:10the scientific regions are there and
  857. 32:12he's also uh unambiguous in his point
  858. 32:14that if you increase carbon in the
  859. 32:16atmosphere you uh increase warming and
  860. 32:18you talk through the entire science of
  861. 32:19why
  862. 32:20uh the planet warms way retains heat and
  863. 32:23if you retain heat then there are
  864. 32:25consequences of that yeah people on the
  865. 32:27planet
  866. 32:28for me like the
  867. 32:31this is unambiguous sure but what we do
  868. 32:35about it or whether we do anything about
  869. 32:37it I think is a fair area for discussion
  870. 32:39and debate you know I agree with that
  871. 32:41accepts team the rapid reduction in
  872. 32:43fossil fuels has severe consequences
  873. 32:47um but I do think also not having some
  874. 32:49kind of transition to less carbon
  875. 32:51intensive energy sources will also have
  876. 32:54other consequences that are very hard to
  877. 32:56predict but could we could be quite
  878. 32:58severe depending on your social economic
  879. 33:01situation and I I think
  880. 33:04we've got ourselves in a position where
  881. 33:06people argue one end and not the other
  882. 33:08end we kind of need to meet in the
  883. 33:09middle and like find the answers to
  884. 33:10these issues
  885. 33:12um but we certainly there will be
  886. 33:13consequences if we continue increasing
  887. 33:16the burner fossil fuels for decades
  888. 33:18ahead
  889. 33:20I subscribe to the Bitcoin astronomy
  890. 33:23perspective of energy production which
  891. 33:26is that I want humans to be able to
  892. 33:28harness the power of our star the sun
  893. 33:31and so that we can go interplanetary and
  894. 33:33settle the solar system and in order for
  895. 33:36us to get there we're going to have to
  896. 33:37harness and generate and capture orders
  897. 33:40and orders and Orders of magnitude more
  898. 33:42energy than we're already producing and
  899. 33:45capturing today
  900. 33:46so I think getting there
  901. 33:49uh we will have so much Innovation like
  902. 33:52once we start harnessing additional
  903. 33:54energy at levels beyond what we can even
  904. 33:56comprehend today uh the amount of
  905. 33:58innovation that we're going to be able
  906. 34:00to produce will be you know it's
  907. 34:02unknowable but also massive and I do
  908. 34:05think that this that this effort of
  909. 34:08harnessing more energy
  910. 34:11will actually help us to solve these
  911. 34:13problems that we're having with carbon
  912. 34:15in the atmosphere if you believe that
  913. 34:16that's like something that we can solve
  914. 34:18you're talking about type two
  915. 34:19civilizations oh yeah Kardashian type
  916. 34:21two but the Kardashian scale the
  917. 34:23Kardashians yeah we did it the other day
  918. 34:26do you know how high that scale goes up
  919. 34:28to uh I think it's three right no oh
  920. 34:31really oh we're gonna blow your mind in
  921. 34:32a minute oh god well I think it does go
  922. 34:34up to three but some [ __ ] cook on the
  923. 34:36internet has made it go up slight 20 or
  924. 34:37so no no it got up to 35. and then it
  925. 34:40went to I and then brain we've got to
  926. 34:43show you this this shit's wild no I
  927. 34:45think the Kardashian scale goes up to a
  928. 34:47six now does it yeah but heads up to
  929. 34:49Chloe I think
  930. 34:52but I think like Nate would 100 agree
  931. 34:55with that like and his point is that the
  932. 34:57ocean it harnessed like I think you said
  933. 34:5940 of the harness 40 of the world's
  934. 35:02total energy from the ocean
  935. 35:04um and and the other thing that is like
  936. 35:06kind of to your point is I don't know if
  937. 35:07you said it on the show or when we were
  938. 35:08hanging out after but he was like I
  939. 35:10don't give like in some ways he doesn't
  940. 35:11give a [ __ ] about arguing with these
  941. 35:13people he just wants to beat them at
  942. 35:14Market because he can offer cheaper
  943. 35:15energy yes yes and and that's like
  944. 35:19by harnessing and producing
  945. 35:21significantly more energy we're driving
  946. 35:23down energy costs we're becoming more
  947. 35:25efficient at energy and like if he can
  948. 35:28produce uh you know an order of
  949. 35:30magnitude more energy by harnessing the
  950. 35:32ocean and it doesn't directly offset
  951. 35:35carbon although the research and
  952. 35:36development in order to get to the point
  953. 35:38where you can
  954. 35:39harness the ocean's energy is going to
  955. 35:41produce carbon then that's great because
  956. 35:44Humanity wins we we have more energy
  957. 35:47it's cheaper we don't have to spend half
  958. 35:48of our life savings on warming our home
  959. 35:51in the winter and we don't have 168
  960. 35:53million people in Bangladesh without the
  961. 35:55lights on right like this is a positive
  962. 35:57outcome so like harnessing more energy
  963. 35:59should be or in my opinion is a very
  964. 36:02Noble goal for people to be doing yeah I
  965. 36:04know yeah and and one of the things that
  966. 36:07was never really clear to me until you
  967. 36:09one of those things you don't you're not
  968. 36:10clear until you see it right you never I
  969. 36:12never really thought about uh the impact
  970. 36:14of energy prices on the economy because
  971. 36:16we've always had stable Energy prices
  972. 36:17I've never had to think about uh the
  973. 36:20impact of having a volatile currency
  974. 36:21until I went to a country and saw it
  975. 36:23right yeah I mean our British pound [ __ ]
  976. 36:26coin is you know decimated over like 300
  977. 36:29years as it existed but it's relatively
  978. 36:31stable year to year two percent
  979. 36:33inflation you barely notice it right
  980. 36:35even eight percent inflation is annoying
  981. 36:38but like survivable it's only when you
  982. 36:40go to someone like Venezuela and you you
  983. 36:42see you literally see what the impact is
  984. 36:44for hyperinflation you realize it's a
  985. 36:46different world
  986. 36:47slightly increase in Energy prices you
  987. 36:49don't really think about it when you
  988. 36:51suddenly see a massive increase in the
  989. 36:52energy prices as people can't get to
  990. 36:54work or yeah the example I gave the
  991. 36:57other day was this Bakery this Bakery a
  992. 36:59centralized bakery that uh based goods
  993. 37:01for a number of cafes but they also had
  994. 37:03three of their own cafes the energy
  995. 37:04prices went so high that they couldn't
  996. 37:06afford to keep the cafes open so they
  997. 37:08only have the centralized place now so
  998. 37:09they just instantly had to close down
  999. 37:11three businesses now other companies
  1000. 37:13have a choice they swallow the cost
  1001. 37:14which they can only do for a certain
  1002. 37:16period or they increase their prices
  1003. 37:17prices go up more inflation so the the
  1004. 37:21impact of energy on the economy on the
  1005. 37:24productivity of the economy and GDP was
  1006. 37:26never something I thought about until
  1007. 37:28till now and now I realize yes
  1008. 37:30absolutely we need to produce as much
  1009. 37:32cheap energy in the world as possible to
  1010. 37:34make people as productive as possible to
  1011. 37:37lift themselves out of poverty and Alex
  1012. 37:38Epstein actually says that yeah and he's
  1013. 37:40he's [ __ ] right well when when you
  1014. 37:42lift yourself out of poverty then you
  1015. 37:45have the ability to spend more time on
  1016. 37:47solving bigger issues right if eight
  1017. 37:51billion people around the world are
  1018. 37:52struggling to feed their families
  1019. 37:55tomorrow like we can't actually solve
  1020. 37:57the larger issues of the world right
  1021. 38:00like if we if you think that uh we can
  1022. 38:03actually solve this carbon issue without
  1023. 38:05either making it worse or destroying the
  1024. 38:07planet then we have to be able to like
  1025. 38:10heat our homes and have our basic needs
  1026. 38:12taken care of so that it's like a higher
  1027. 38:13order uh problem to solve I think the
  1028. 38:15blip in this uh time is is the the
  1029. 38:19nuclear problem I think if we to
  1030. 38:21continue to develop nuclear and think
  1031. 38:23continue to expand nuclear I don't think
  1032. 38:25this would all of this would ever have
  1033. 38:27been an issue but I think it is I mean
  1034. 38:29we found out the other day what 54
  1035. 38:31nuclear plants in France yeah 32 in a
  1036. 38:34state of disrepair I don't know if
  1037. 38:36they're in a state of Japan they're just
  1038. 38:37down for maintenance but I mean there's
  1039. 38:39a lot that means a lot and it all at
  1040. 38:40once it seems if a nuclear plant is down
  1041. 38:42from maintenance that's in a state of
  1042. 38:44just for them
  1043. 38:45and if there's 32 or the 54 that
  1044. 38:48suggests that something's been neglected
  1045. 38:50if you ask me but to me that is the blip
  1046. 38:52in all of this
  1047. 38:54um you know I we should be largely
  1048. 38:56Beyond fossil fuels for I think
  1049. 38:58providing energy to the grid yes it's
  1050. 39:01yeah we've needed it for cars and planes
  1051. 39:04and we probably never replace it for
  1052. 39:05planes
  1053. 39:06but you know the US just launched uh an
  1054. 39:09aircraft carrier that was that's a
  1055. 39:11nuclear
  1056. 39:12uh aircraft carrier so we've harnessed
  1057. 39:14the paranuclear in vehicles as well as
  1058. 39:17yeah so that's like the perfect example
  1059. 39:20of where uh like like we we've invested
  1060. 39:25you know decades and decades and decades
  1061. 39:27into producing a warship powered by
  1062. 39:30nuclear energy yeah like the carbon
  1063. 39:33output of that
  1064. 39:36like war machine is astronomical and
  1065. 39:41like now now that we have this gigantic
  1066. 39:44ship that's running on nuclear like is
  1067. 39:46that good for the environment like no
  1068. 39:48why why not
  1069. 39:50because it's it's a it's a machine of
  1070. 39:53War it's it's you know difficult I mean
  1071. 39:55the machine specifically I'm talking
  1072. 39:56about the just the carbon output of an
  1073. 39:59aircraft carrier that is uh that is
  1074. 40:01powered by I want fewer aircraft
  1075. 40:02carriers no of course of course but I'm
  1076. 40:04all I'm talking about is the fact that
  1077. 40:06they've harnessed the energy of nuclear
  1078. 40:07power to power that like which by the
  1079. 40:10way always wears me out as well because
  1080. 40:12you're You Know You're Made To Fear
  1081. 40:14nuclear but you can actually power
  1082. 40:16um an aircraft carrier or a submarine
  1083. 40:18with nuclear power but the point is it's
  1084. 40:20like we've harnessed these Technologies
  1085. 40:22and now we've just kind of like let them
  1086. 40:24go and we're in this you know situation
  1087. 40:25now which is
  1088. 40:28currency collapse is a real [ __ ] energy
  1089. 40:30collapse is a real [ __ ]
  1090. 40:32currency is what coordinates the
  1091. 40:34extraction of energy and right now uh
  1092. 40:37the energy is it's we're not extracting
  1093. 40:40it yeah harnessing it very well and
  1094. 40:41we're blowing up pipelines which
  1095. 40:42distribute Energy across Europe
  1096. 40:45um uh but an energy crisis and a
  1097. 40:47currency crisis at the same time is
  1098. 40:50quite the [ __ ] mix well I you know
  1099. 40:52Bitcoin it's money and its energy at the
  1100. 40:55same time it's it's the marriage of the
  1101. 40:57two energy money right yeah and so I
  1102. 41:00think maybe uh regardless of how your
  1103. 41:04currency is secured
  1104. 41:07your currency is always a form of energy
  1105. 41:10it's always like the output of
  1106. 41:13delivering value of human energy in
  1107. 41:15action you should save that value that
  1108. 41:18you've produced in a form of money and
  1109. 41:20regardless of how that money is saved or
  1110. 41:23secured like energy has always been
  1111. 41:25expended to achieve it yeah I don't want
  1112. 41:27to let you off completely on this um
  1113. 41:29fossil fuels thing yeah I do just want
  1114. 41:31to finish off because
  1115. 41:32it is an evolving understanding that
  1116. 41:34people are having that certain people
  1117. 41:36have brought new information to the
  1118. 41:37table but
  1119. 41:38um I think the unknown area is that if
  1120. 41:41we continue to burn fossil fuels as we
  1121. 41:44are and we continue to increase a carbon
  1122. 41:46in the atmosphere what are the
  1123. 41:48consequences before we transition away
  1124. 41:50from that we are seeing the consequences
  1125. 41:53of an increase in carbon the atmosphere
  1126. 41:54the planet is warming up quicker than it
  1127. 41:56would and I know some people say it's
  1128. 41:57always been warming no it's not warmed
  1129. 42:00at the rate it's warming now and there
  1130. 42:01are consequences for that we've we don't
  1131. 42:03fully know the impact of that now the
  1132. 42:04those have catastrophized it I've
  1133. 42:07obviously
  1134. 42:09um they've not done a great PR job for
  1135. 42:11what that you know the cause they're
  1136. 42:13trying to support
  1137. 42:14but there are significant risks of a
  1138. 42:16massive increase for Mormon there are
  1139. 42:18significant risks of increasing sea
  1140. 42:19levels I mean we do have an increase in
  1141. 42:21sea levels and there is a significant
  1142. 42:23increase to people living in coastal
  1143. 42:25regions but we don't know that we don't
  1144. 42:28know when these consequences here it
  1145. 42:29might not be us it might be my
  1146. 42:31grandchildren that suddenly hit with a
  1147. 42:33different scenario sure we don't know
  1148. 42:35these and I think I think it's only
  1149. 42:37right
  1150. 42:38for the smart right intelligent people
  1151. 42:41who aren't being lobbied just do the
  1152. 42:43right research on what will be the
  1153. 42:45impact on the environment if we do
  1154. 42:47continue to increase carbon in the
  1155. 42:49atmosphere because that's the bit we've
  1156. 42:50always struggled to find good data on
  1157. 42:53there's good models on
  1158. 42:55on
  1159. 42:56um
  1160. 42:56the changes in temperature if we
  1161. 42:58continue into increase carbon but
  1162. 43:00nobody's on any particular good work on
  1163. 43:03the impact of that that's the bit I've
  1164. 43:05struggled to find
  1165. 43:07the way I think about it is [ __ ] them no
  1166. 43:11uh I think that this it very well could
  1167. 43:15be uh a crisis or a real problem
  1168. 43:18we don't know how it will manifest we
  1169. 43:21don't know when it will manifest I've
  1170. 43:23Heard lots of predictions over the years
  1171. 43:24that have proven to be false
  1172. 43:27what we do know for certain is what
  1173. 43:29happens when you try to push a
  1174. 43:32civilization to a form of energy that
  1175. 43:35isn't as reliable quickly we have
  1176. 43:38evidence and certainty
  1177. 43:41about how societies collapse and the
  1178. 43:44suffering that it causes yes
  1179. 43:46we think that there will be a problem in
  1180. 43:49the future
  1181. 43:49right
  1182. 43:52we have certainty if you move off of
  1183. 43:54fossil fuels today and you try to go
  1184. 43:56full wind solar whatever
  1185. 44:00like you're gonna be in the darkness in
  1186. 44:02like Bangladesh
  1187. 44:05we believe that there might be a problem
  1188. 44:06in the future it's just like it's like
  1189. 44:07an unwinnable situation I think what we
  1190. 44:10can do is try to remove what I would say
  1191. 44:13is remove all the subsidies
  1192. 44:15get a real market price well first of
  1193. 44:18all hold on even for oil hold on first
  1194. 44:20of all set back
  1195. 44:22foundationally reset the entire global
  1196. 44:24economy on a sound money okay step one
  1197. 44:27then when we have real prices again
  1198. 44:29because we don't have real prices right
  1199. 44:31now our prices of everything are heavily
  1200. 44:33heavily manipulated by what Jerome
  1201. 44:35Powell is feeling uh in on a given day
  1202. 44:39once we have real prices you'll be able
  1203. 44:40to see what is the most efficient way to
  1204. 44:43produce energy
  1205. 44:44we will produce energy that way and the
  1206. 44:48people who are the most profitable at
  1207. 44:49producing energy will have additional
  1208. 44:51resources to invest in getting more
  1209. 44:54efficient at producing energy right
  1210. 44:57Bitcoin mining helps us get there
  1211. 44:59because
  1212. 45:01any excess energy that's generated you
  1213. 45:04can just mine right
  1214. 45:06offload to the Bitcoin Network
  1215. 45:08um
  1216. 45:10so yeah that's that's kind of my my my
  1217. 45:12strategy here is uh first of all rip out
  1218. 45:15the Frankenstein Financial system with a
  1219. 45:18bunch of different 100 whatever
  1220. 45:20different currencies that are all
  1221. 45:21collapsing replace it with sound money
  1222. 45:23yes
  1223. 45:25we have real pricing mechanism so we can
  1224. 45:27see now with much greater Clarity what's
  1225. 45:30the most efficient way to produce energy
  1226. 45:32invest in that
  1227. 45:34you should go and get Jerome Pyle's job
  1228. 45:36yeah you know I I should just call him
  1229. 45:39up if you have a massive objection on
  1230. 45:41this right okay so do you think do you
  1231. 45:43think if we
  1232. 45:45um
  1233. 45:45replace the the world's Global
  1234. 45:47currencies on sound money yes and have
  1235. 45:50proper accurate pricing
  1236. 45:52uh do you believe there for what is the
  1237. 45:54role of the state in this or is it see
  1238. 45:56you later no we have to have an entity
  1239. 45:59that has a monopoly on violence like
  1240. 46:01there must be wow okay absolutely okay
  1241. 46:05no no I'll tell you why this is
  1242. 46:07interesting because uh you didn't let me
  1243. 46:10finish but okay no no actually it's just
  1244. 46:12no because this debate hasn't really
  1245. 46:13come up and I've wanted to hear this
  1246. 46:15because certain people would argue that
  1247. 46:18it's morally wrong for someone an entity
  1248. 46:20to have the Monopoly on violence
  1249. 46:22but I've also had the argument that
  1250. 46:24somebody has a monopoly on violence
  1251. 46:25there is less violence
  1252. 46:28so the way that I think about it is uh
  1253. 46:31so first of all the way that governments
  1254. 46:33work today is out of control yes
  1255. 46:36um they're way too large and they're way
  1256. 46:39too
  1257. 46:40um abstracted away from like the local
  1258. 46:42your local community so they're in my
  1259. 46:45opinion there's certainly you need to
  1260. 46:47have some form of protection
  1261. 46:50um and I don't subscribe to the 100
  1262. 46:53Homesteader self-sovereign Mountain Man
  1263. 46:56out in the woods method because
  1264. 47:00um
  1265. 47:01Society is formed through humans
  1266. 47:06cooperating and the sum is greater or
  1267. 47:10the the whole is greater than the sum of
  1268. 47:12the parts like when people get together
  1269. 47:13and
  1270. 47:16collaborate and cooperate we produce
  1271. 47:18something that is way more impressive
  1272. 47:20and better than any single individual
  1273. 47:24can produce so we need hierarchy
  1274. 47:27what you need to have in order to
  1275. 47:29maintain the peace in a civilization is
  1276. 47:32some entity that uh that yeah
  1277. 47:36it basically it it's the just a justice
  1278. 47:39system you need to have laws you need to
  1279. 47:41have people who enforce those laws and
  1280. 47:44you need to have consequences for
  1281. 47:46breaking the laws
  1282. 47:48um so I do believe that that
  1283. 47:50civilizations have historically formed
  1284. 47:53in this way because it's the best way to
  1285. 47:55form a civilization we've never built a
  1286. 47:57society on top of a sound money which I
  1287. 48:00think
  1288. 48:01will really change the dynamic like the
  1289. 48:04communities will all be much more local
  1290. 48:05politics will be much more local and
  1291. 48:09um
  1292. 48:09I don't think we've had close to a
  1293. 48:11society Beyond us our money when we had
  1294. 48:13the gold standard that's close but gold
  1295. 48:16is but we understand the difference in
  1296. 48:17productivity and the accuracy we're
  1297. 48:19pricing when we did have a gold standard
  1298. 48:21I would say that we didn't have sound
  1299. 48:24money so gold is not a sound money
  1300. 48:27um it's close it was the best that was
  1301. 48:29available but it's not sound because
  1302. 48:31it's physical and we have it has an
  1303. 48:34unknown total Supply so if you think
  1304. 48:36about money
  1305. 48:37as a ruler like money is a tool that
  1306. 48:40allows you to store and communicate
  1307. 48:42value it allows you to measure the value
  1308. 48:44of your output and purchase goods and
  1309. 48:46services which is the output of others
  1310. 48:48right it's like a it's a tool we've
  1311. 48:51never had a tool that is an accurate
  1312. 48:53measurement of output until Bitcoin
  1313. 48:56because Bitcoin has a supply of 21
  1314. 48:58million it's fixed it's set oh no no
  1315. 49:00even gold we're just saying we had
  1316. 49:02closer to it we could we could yeah even
  1317. 49:04though it wasn't a sound money system it
  1318. 49:07was closer to a sound money system and
  1319. 49:09again Ben Prentiss will point to 1971
  1320. 49:11and he will say look at the difference
  1321. 49:13look what happened when look at what
  1322. 49:15happened when we came off the gold
  1323. 49:16standard so we all we've done is get
  1324. 49:18further away from her well the problem
  1325. 49:20yeah and that's like coming off of the
  1326. 49:23gold standard is an inevitability with
  1327. 49:25gold because it's physical and because
  1328. 49:28it has an unknown total Supply you can't
  1329. 49:30verify how much gold you have and you're
  1330. 49:33centralized well it centralizes yes
  1331. 49:35because it doesn't scale for a global
  1332. 49:37whole society like we can't uh travel to
  1333. 49:41different solar systems on gold using
  1334. 49:44gold as our money like we can't travel
  1335. 49:46to different planets even because it's
  1336. 49:47you can't lug around like piles of gold
  1337. 49:50you keep dipping into grooves I've just
  1338. 49:52been I've just been thinking about space
  1339. 49:54recently yeah I love Drew's articles
  1340. 49:56great yeah
  1341. 49:58um
  1342. 49:58okay fine so we how how do we
  1343. 50:03re-establish on no hold on where were we
  1344. 50:05you were in the middle of something you
  1345. 50:07were asking Phil about like what the
  1346. 50:09society he envisions would be yeah so
  1347. 50:11the Monopoly and violence yeah so yeah I
  1348. 50:14mean uh a lot of uh
  1349. 50:18Austrian thinkers have written about the
  1350. 50:21role of government in a society mises
  1351. 50:24wrote a lot about that and I I really I
  1352. 50:28think it's I think it's correct I think
  1353. 50:30first of all from the first principle of
  1354. 50:31like you know the the ultimate sovereign
  1355. 50:35individual just cannot
  1356. 50:37produce as much value as a collection of
  1357. 50:40people working together yes so
  1358. 50:42civilizations grew because it's more
  1359. 50:44efficient it's better it delivers more
  1360. 50:46prosperity and uh human nature is such
  1361. 50:50that
  1362. 50:52if you can cheat you will cheat maybe
  1363. 50:55not a given individual but in a
  1364. 50:58collection of individuals somebody is
  1365. 50:59going to take a shortcut somewhere
  1366. 51:02um and so I do think that you need to
  1367. 51:04have rule of law and you need to have a
  1368. 51:06system of government I again I just
  1369. 51:08think like this uh federal system around
  1370. 51:10the world or these Federal systems are
  1371. 51:13hugely inefficient they're bloated and
  1372. 51:17they don't work very well anymore and
  1373. 51:19the only reason that they're sustained
  1374. 51:21is because uh they have the power of the
  1375. 51:23printing press so that's that's my two
  1376. 51:25two SATs on that like there will be
  1377. 51:27government it'll be much more local uh
  1378. 51:29the the local governments will be or the
  1379. 51:32local civilizations will be much more
  1380. 51:34prosperous I mean I completely agree
  1381. 51:36with you
  1382. 51:37um
  1383. 51:38but there are a lot of people in Bitcoin
  1384. 51:39who wouldn't agree with you and don't
  1385. 51:41agree with you uh Jack mizuko would say
  1386. 51:43millions of people uh interact with each
  1387. 51:46other voluntary every day and we do not
  1388. 51:49need any form of Monopoly on violence
  1389. 51:51uh I mean I think that's a that's also a
  1390. 51:54perspective like I can't
  1391. 51:56I mean if he feels that way then that's
  1392. 51:58that's kind of Giacomo's perspective I
  1393. 52:00just think like
  1394. 52:01you you
  1395. 52:03have to pay someone for security or you
  1396. 52:06have to secure yourself and I don't
  1397. 52:08subscribe to the mountain man you know
  1398. 52:11in the woods like with a huge Arsenal
  1399. 52:13and homesteading like it's just not the
  1400. 52:16society I want to live in I want to live
  1401. 52:18in a nice Community where I can trust my
  1402. 52:20neighbors and like uh yeah maybe I can
  1403. 52:23defend myself but on the whole like we
  1404. 52:26have to hire somebody to defend us
  1405. 52:28because I can't specialize in defense I
  1406. 52:31need to specialize in you know helping
  1407. 52:32people hold their keys like
  1408. 52:35that's the division of labor and I think
  1409. 52:38that that's what civilization's built on
  1410. 52:40so yeah I would happily pay somebody for
  1411. 52:43uh protection so how fundamental to this
  1412. 52:46is 21 million
  1413. 52:48it's everything yeah so uh it's it's the
  1414. 52:52reason that we're here talking today
  1415. 52:55um Bitcoin
  1416. 52:57is the discovery of digital scarcity
  1417. 53:00it's the dis it's the permanent solution
  1418. 53:03to this idea of inflation or printing
  1419. 53:05money the unfortunate side effect of
  1420. 53:08Bitcoin is that people who don't
  1421. 53:11understand that the Innovation was
  1422. 53:13removing the printing press from the
  1423. 53:15hands of everyone view it as oh now I
  1424. 53:18can become a central Banker right so the
  1425. 53:21broader crypto scene is people who want
  1426. 53:24to be their own Central bankers
  1427. 53:26Bitcoin and bitcoiners are the people
  1428. 53:29who understand that we've got to
  1429. 53:31separate money production from the hands
  1430. 53:34of any given an individual
  1431. 53:36uh so that we can all use this neutral
  1432. 53:39currency and it can accurately store
  1433. 53:41value over time
  1434. 53:43and it's a non-negotiable for you we
  1435. 53:45know 21 million is non-negotiable so the
  1436. 53:48I wrote a couple articles a few years
  1437. 53:49ago about this and the reason I wrote uh
  1438. 53:52these articles was really a few few
  1439. 53:54reasons like first of all
  1440. 53:56a lot of crypto marketers
  1441. 53:59will compare their currency
  1442. 54:02their currency's inflation rate to
  1443. 54:04bitcoin's inflation rate because every
  1444. 54:0710 minutes 6.25 Bitcoin are released
  1445. 54:10through the process of of processing
  1446. 54:12transactions which we call mining
  1447. 54:15that categorization is totally wrong
  1448. 54:17like Bitcoin does not have inflation
  1449. 54:19Bitcoin has a supply of 21 million that
  1450. 54:23is released on a fixed schedule that we
  1451. 54:25can all verify on our home computers so
  1452. 54:28they already exist
  1453. 54:31yeah so I think about it as your mom
  1454. 54:34bakes 21 cookies
  1455. 54:36and you get one cookie every 10 minutes
  1456. 54:40for doing your math homework this is how
  1457. 54:43I go about this exactly like you don't
  1458. 54:46have control of all the cookies yet but
  1459. 54:48do the cookies exist yes if if somebody
  1460. 54:51comes in and says actually I have
  1461. 54:53another 21 million cookies like those
  1462. 54:56are a different set of cookies
  1463. 54:58so I need to ask a couple of technical
  1464. 54:59questions on that sure so at the point
  1465. 55:02where a block is found yes and uh the
  1466. 55:06coinbase reward is created and
  1467. 55:10is a utxo created at that point
  1468. 55:15so like if yeah like I don't understand
  1469. 55:17this part yeah so when the coinbase uh
  1470. 55:20when when a block is discovered yeah uh
  1471. 55:22the the mining pool uh that discovers
  1472. 55:25the block is issued
  1473. 55:27um the the subsidy and yeah it's issued
  1474. 55:30as a utxo so the utxo has created at
  1475. 55:33that point the utxo uh yes is created at
  1476. 55:37that point so I don't think they'll I
  1477. 55:39don't think all 21 million exist then
  1478. 55:42so they have to already exist because we
  1479. 55:44know that the supply is 21 million and
  1480. 55:46then we also know if the schedule has
  1481. 55:48been broken so if if a minor finds
  1482. 55:5212.5 Bitcoin at the next block like we
  1483. 55:57know that that's invalid that's not
  1484. 55:58Bitcoin that's a hard Fork yeah right
  1485. 56:01but how do we know that it's a hard Fork
  1486. 56:03if the Bitcoin doesn't already exist we
  1487. 56:05already know that there's 21 million we
  1488. 56:07know exactly how they're released uh and
  1489. 56:09if anything about that schedule changes
  1490. 56:11that's a hard Fork that we can claim and
  1491. 56:14sell for more Bitcoin so I'm going to
  1492. 56:16argue back with you that I don't think
  1493. 56:18they exist because I heard about I was
  1494. 56:19thinking about this quite a bit last
  1495. 56:20month okay okay so I understand your
  1496. 56:22point in that there's can only be 21
  1497. 56:24million and then every 10 minutes these
  1498. 56:27are issued out to the port or the lucky
  1499. 56:29solo Miner
  1500. 56:31um but my argument is is that you can
  1501. 56:34only identify uh Bitcoin by utxos and
  1502. 56:37therefore those
  1503. 56:39um those Bitcoins that haven't been
  1504. 56:41issued yet because that don't have a
  1505. 56:43utxo so they don't exist but the
  1506. 56:45software only allows uh uh Bitcoin to be
  1507. 56:50issued up until the point it hits 21
  1508. 56:52million but we know exactly where those
  1509. 56:54Bitcoin are living in future blocks like
  1510. 56:56you can pick any Block in the future and
  1511. 56:59I can tell you how much Bitcoin lives in
  1512. 57:00the coinbase Troy there and what we
  1513. 57:02don't know is the existing utxo set how
  1514. 57:05that's going to move like the Huddle
  1515. 57:07waves is how we kind of see the existing
  1516. 57:09utxo set and how it moves over time we
  1517. 57:12have very little Clarity like Satoshi
  1518. 57:14could you know market sell his 1 million
  1519. 57:16Bitcoin uh for uh ethereum proof of
  1520. 57:20stake you know tomorrow seems a little
  1521. 57:22unlikely to me but
  1522. 57:23they could right
  1523. 57:25um because they have the keys to it the
  1524. 57:27utxos are under the controls of their
  1525. 57:29keys what Satoshi can't do is I don't
  1526. 57:32know what block we're at but five blocks
  1527. 57:34from now change uh the 6.25 subsidy to
  1528. 57:39something else but that's to me that's
  1529. 57:42the rules that says what Bitcoin can be
  1530. 57:44created at that point
  1531. 57:47the rules say they don't exist yet but
  1532. 57:49they say they can be created at that
  1533. 57:51point when that block is created the
  1534. 57:52consensus rules pass and those Bitcoin
  1535. 57:56agreed again I don't know the technicals
  1536. 57:57of how what or what part happens when
  1537. 57:59they're created but the utxos are issued
  1538. 58:02at that point therefore once UTS are
  1539. 58:05issued then that Bitcoin exists
  1540. 58:08so I think of it as uh again like the
  1541. 58:12like Bitcoin is the software that we run
  1542. 58:15on our computers and it's the private
  1543. 58:17Keys We Hold to our Bitcoin addresses
  1544. 58:19and the software we run uh the node like
  1545. 58:23has the roadmap laid out it has all 21
  1546. 58:27million Bitcoin and exactly when they're
  1547. 58:30going to be released and which block and
  1548. 58:33so I think that if you understand how
  1549. 58:36this system works you can just assume
  1550. 58:38that all 21 million Bitcoin exist and uh
  1551. 58:42you can profit from that information
  1552. 58:43like miners out there are not like
  1553. 58:46investing in massive mining
  1554. 58:49infrastructure you know with the
  1555. 58:51knowledge that this this thing could
  1556. 58:53change like they're doing it because oh
  1557. 58:54no I agree it's fixed they understand
  1558. 58:56that there will only be 21 million
  1559. 58:58Bitcoin and so it's just better to think
  1560. 59:01of them as already existing uh the other
  1561. 59:03thing so again the reason that I think
  1562. 59:05that it's it's important to think like
  1563. 59:06this and it's very esoteric I know but
  1564. 59:08uh when when [ __ ] coiners are marketing
  1565. 59:12like oh ethereum is now ultrasound money
  1566. 59:15because it's issues less you know per
  1567. 59:18day than Bitcoin like that's insane you
  1568. 59:21can't first of all you can't change
  1569. 59:23something to become more sound that's an
  1570. 59:27oxymoron number two like you don't know
  1571. 59:30the ultimate supply of ethereum you
  1572. 59:33don't know the ultimate supply of gold
  1573. 59:34you don't know the ultimate supply of
  1574. 59:36really any currency because none of
  1575. 59:37their supplies are credible we don't
  1576. 59:39even know the current Supply exactly
  1577. 59:40with Bitcoin you know that there will
  1578. 59:43only ever be 21 million and you know
  1579. 59:44exactly how they're going to be unlocked
  1580. 59:46locked or issued so I just think
  1581. 59:49switching your mindset into
  1582. 59:51understanding that they already exist
  1583. 59:53helps you to understand sound money
  1584. 59:55principles and helps you to understand
  1585. 59:56why broader crypto is in my opinion a
  1586. 1:00:00scam yeah no I I can understand the Mind
  1587. 1:00:02switch I just don't agree they exist yet
  1588. 1:00:04what do you think Danny do they exist
  1589. 1:00:06I just I don't really see why it matters
  1590. 1:00:09like either way not the 21 million but
  1591. 1:00:12like whether they already exist or
  1592. 1:00:13they're getting unlocked over time like
  1593. 1:00:15it makes no real difference I think the
  1594. 1:00:17idea for like a marketing side of things
  1595. 1:00:19really good in the terms of like
  1596. 1:00:21clarifying the difference but it makes
  1597. 1:00:23no difference does it yes I mean if
  1598. 1:00:25that's the only reason then that's a
  1599. 1:00:27good reason because you have these
  1600. 1:00:29idiots out here marketing ethereum is
  1601. 1:00:31ultrasound money which is there's
  1602. 1:00:34nothing even remotely minimally sound
  1603. 1:00:37about it and they're looking at this one
  1604. 1:00:40metric and saying the inflation rate is
  1605. 1:00:42what makes it ultrasound money
  1606. 1:00:45and they're like look at bitcoin's
  1607. 1:00:47inflation it's you know whatever percent
  1608. 1:00:49per year one point something percent per
  1609. 1:00:51year the way I look at it is
  1610. 1:00:54no bitcoin's inflation is zero because
  1611. 1:00:57I've always been zero the supply is
  1612. 1:00:59fixed it's the only currency
  1613. 1:01:01that has ever existed that has a fixed
  1614. 1:01:04Supply
  1615. 1:01:05all other currencies don't have a fixed
  1616. 1:01:09Supply even even the other cryptos that
  1617. 1:01:11say that they have fixed Supply they're
  1618. 1:01:13centralized and so it can be changed and
  1619. 1:01:15there's plenty of examples of all of
  1620. 1:01:17those other cryptos changing and then
  1621. 1:01:19the fact that in the innovation of
  1622. 1:01:22Bitcoin is the discovery of digital
  1623. 1:01:25scarcity
  1624. 1:01:26and broader crypto is a replica it is
  1625. 1:01:31just proof that things that are digital
  1626. 1:01:33are extremely easy to copy like you can
  1627. 1:01:35copy bitcoin's quite code base change a
  1628. 1:01:37few things here or there launch your own
  1629. 1:01:39currency you've proven that things that
  1630. 1:01:41are digital are typically not scarce but
  1631. 1:01:43what you can't do is create more than 21
  1632. 1:01:45million Bitcoin so I see your point now
  1633. 1:01:48there's an inflation rate zero yeah it's
  1634. 1:01:50just it's just a release schedule it's a
  1635. 1:01:52schedule it's a schedule yeah yeah so
  1636. 1:01:54then so then the second article I wrote
  1637. 1:01:56that's actually a really good point and
  1638. 1:01:57I can see the benefit there then explain
  1639. 1:02:00it to people because another thing I was
  1640. 1:02:01discussing with Parker
  1641. 1:02:03um yesterday was that uh my way of
  1642. 1:02:06explaining Bitcoin to people is evolving
  1643. 1:02:08it's moving from telling them what
  1644. 1:02:10Bitcoin is to telling them what is wrong
  1645. 1:02:12with Fiat money and then what Bitcoin
  1646. 1:02:14solves now
  1647. 1:02:16I think it's going to be far easier to
  1648. 1:02:18say there is an inflation rate at zero
  1649. 1:02:20and there's 21 million and there's a
  1650. 1:02:22release schedule than to say there's
  1651. 1:02:24this inflation rate and every four years
  1652. 1:02:26there's a half and like to get because
  1653. 1:02:28you have to get into all the difficulty
  1654. 1:02:29you have to get into all this other [ __ ]
  1655. 1:02:31you don't need to get into that just
  1656. 1:02:32makes it easier I get it so then I think
  1657. 1:02:35you're wrong
  1658. 1:02:38Jeremy do they already exist yes or no
  1659. 1:02:40no
  1660. 1:02:43oh wow but but
  1661. 1:02:45I I'm agreeing with you it's a useful
  1662. 1:02:47thing to say and I'm going to use that
  1663. 1:02:49because sometimes it's better to do it
  1664. 1:02:52that way all right well I've changed
  1665. 1:02:53maybe one mind or at least I've tipped
  1666. 1:02:56the needle a little bit you tip the
  1667. 1:02:57needle so the other the other reason
  1668. 1:02:59that I wrote uh this the first storyline
  1669. 1:03:03the second article is when you
  1670. 1:03:05understand that uh there will only ever
  1671. 1:03:08be 21 million Bitcoin because Bitcoin is
  1672. 1:03:10in fact the supply of 20 million like
  1673. 1:03:12you can't separate the two you then
  1674. 1:03:14realize that the other marketing angle
  1675. 1:03:17that a lot of crypto and shitcoin
  1676. 1:03:19Founders will take is this idea that at
  1677. 1:03:23some point in the future Bitcoin will be
  1678. 1:03:24unsecure
  1679. 1:03:26it's it's one of the most regular emails
  1680. 1:03:29I get yeah yeah it's uh what happens in
  1681. 1:03:32you know three halvings time if the
  1682. 1:03:34Bitcoin price at this point and uh yeah
  1683. 1:03:37we we have a you know a much lower hash
  1684. 1:03:40rate you know we'll be less secure and
  1685. 1:03:43you know what if that is a trend like
  1686. 1:03:45can you get somebody on to talk about
  1687. 1:03:46this and I'm like we can't make a whole
  1688. 1:03:47show on that but it is a question that
  1689. 1:03:49comes up a lot
  1690. 1:03:50and it's a really tough question to
  1691. 1:03:53tackle because I don't think that the
  1692. 1:03:54answer is what people want to hear so
  1693. 1:03:57the way that I think about this is is
  1694. 1:03:59Bitcoin secure today
  1695. 1:04:02deal with it at the time well is it
  1696. 1:04:03secure today yes uh was it secure five
  1697. 1:04:06years ago
  1698. 1:04:08I mean I don't think you can say whether
  1699. 1:04:11it is binary secure exactly yeah is it
  1700. 1:04:14still alive yeah so then it was Secure
  1701. 1:04:16five years ago yeah no I think I think
  1702. 1:04:18what you can do is you can you can
  1703. 1:04:20calculate the costs you can do a couple
  1704. 1:04:22of things you can calculate the cost of
  1705. 1:04:24uh how much hash power you have to uh I
  1706. 1:04:27think that that's the wrong approach
  1707. 1:04:28person but to bear with me that you know
  1708. 1:04:30to be able to attack it okay you have to
  1709. 1:04:32be able to do that but then you also
  1710. 1:04:34have to rationalize the actual process
  1711. 1:04:36of being able to accumulate that hash
  1712. 1:04:37power which is even more likely so you
  1713. 1:04:39know when somebody says well you need 20
  1714. 1:04:41billion dollars of money yeah fine oh
  1715. 1:04:44whoa somebody's got 50 billion they can
  1716. 1:04:46do it yeah but you can't actually gonna
  1717. 1:04:47accumulate the hash power and if you do
  1718. 1:04:49other people will start accumulating
  1719. 1:04:51hash power so I think I think you can
  1720. 1:04:54you can create a risk model
  1721. 1:04:57okay but how much hash brown there is
  1722. 1:04:58how much do you need
  1723. 1:05:00you know how easy does it get it because
  1724. 1:05:02look at bch or bsv you could very easily
  1725. 1:05:06accumulate that hash brown you could
  1726. 1:05:07destroy those networks right it's very
  1727. 1:05:09easy to do
  1728. 1:05:10with Bitcoin it's close to Impossible
  1729. 1:05:12right now so that's the way I think of
  1730. 1:05:14it like how risky like what is the risk
  1731. 1:05:17model rather than the cost
  1732. 1:05:19so I think about it as
  1733. 1:05:22the network security is discovered on
  1734. 1:05:26the free market so it will only like and
  1735. 1:05:29the fact that it's alive today
  1736. 1:05:3113 years after its founding is proof
  1737. 1:05:35that the incentives to secure it are
  1738. 1:05:37were set up correctly
  1739. 1:05:40um so bitcoin's hash rate was you know
  1740. 1:05:42what a quarter of what it is today five
  1741. 1:05:45years ago
  1742. 1:05:46but it's here today and the hash rate is
  1743. 1:05:48now at an all-time high what hasn't
  1744. 1:05:50changed throughout that time is that
  1745. 1:05:51there will only ever be 21 million
  1746. 1:05:53Bitcoin the other thing to think about
  1747. 1:05:55and I I never I think anyone who's doing
  1748. 1:05:58any sort of modeling using the US dollar
  1749. 1:06:00is uh is on the wrong path because the
  1750. 1:06:05the value of the dollar is constantly
  1751. 1:06:06changing the value of Bitcoin is
  1752. 1:06:08constantly changing you have to take
  1753. 1:06:09those as as things that are going to
  1754. 1:06:11continue to be true forever with Bitcoin
  1755. 1:06:13the value of the currency is always
  1756. 1:06:15going to change even when it's globally
  1757. 1:06:18adopted by 8 billion people
  1758. 1:06:20um because people are exchanging it
  1759. 1:06:23constantly
  1760. 1:06:25so what I look at is
  1761. 1:06:28there incentive today to invest in
  1762. 1:06:32Bitcoin mining or invest in securing
  1763. 1:06:35this thing and
  1764. 1:06:38the incentive is is it profitable to
  1765. 1:06:41actually do that and the answer is
  1766. 1:06:42unequivocally yes like large companies
  1767. 1:06:45around the world are investing massive
  1768. 1:06:48amounts of capital into mining Bitcoin
  1769. 1:06:50because it's a profitable endeavor
  1770. 1:06:53and it will always be true
  1771. 1:06:55because
  1772. 1:06:57Bitcoin mining is actually part of the
  1773. 1:06:59energy production industry it's not part
  1774. 1:07:01of it's not like this own its own like
  1775. 1:07:03carve out industry it's like part of
  1776. 1:07:06energy production is that you have to
  1777. 1:07:08balance the amount of energy you're
  1778. 1:07:10producing with the amount of demand for
  1779. 1:07:13the energy and you can never perfectly
  1780. 1:07:16balance it and so you're always going to
  1781. 1:07:18have a scenario where you know you
  1782. 1:07:20produce too much energy and demand
  1783. 1:07:22doesn't uh quite mean it
  1784. 1:07:25and you need to do something with that
  1785. 1:07:27energy or waste it so today when we look
  1786. 1:07:29at energy production especially in the
  1787. 1:07:31Renewables there's a lot of times when
  1788. 1:07:34uh the supply and demand are out of
  1789. 1:07:36whack and so they have to shut down
  1790. 1:07:37production so like I was reading a
  1791. 1:07:39statistic about wind energy
  1792. 1:07:42that said that in California I think in
  1793. 1:07:44like 2018 2019 17 of the time they're
  1794. 1:07:47shutting off production of energy
  1795. 1:07:49they're producing way too much wind
  1796. 1:07:51energy than they can deliver to the grid
  1797. 1:07:53well what if you had a tool that would
  1798. 1:07:55always buy your wind energy
  1799. 1:07:58but it's only going to buy the wind
  1800. 1:08:00energy
  1801. 1:08:01buy it if it can mine Bitcoin sure or
  1802. 1:08:04enough Bitcoin and the unknown is is
  1803. 1:08:07come 2141 but probably much you know
  1804. 1:08:11before then uh what what did they
  1805. 1:08:13actually mine in that block what did
  1806. 1:08:15they get out of that block sure well and
  1807. 1:08:17I I like to point to another kind of
  1808. 1:08:19historical Bitcoin moment which is when
  1809. 1:08:24Laszlo purchased uh two pizzas for 10
  1810. 1:08:28000 Bitcoin
  1811. 1:08:29do you guys know what the transaction
  1812. 1:08:31fee he paid was I do because I read your
  1813. 1:08:33article
  1814. 1:08:36guess
  1815. 1:08:38I don't know five sets one Bitcoin ha
  1816. 1:08:43today uh we pay you know I think each
  1817. 1:08:47block and we'd have to pull up like
  1818. 1:08:49blockstream.info to see exactly what the
  1819. 1:08:51transaction fee is but tens or
  1820. 1:08:54potentially hundreds of millions of SATs
  1821. 1:08:56in transaction fees at today's price
  1822. 1:08:59it's not that bad like in the future as
  1823. 1:09:03the value of Bitcoin changes 10 million
  1824. 1:09:06SATs could be an astronomical uh fee to
  1825. 1:09:10be paying if enough people are using the
  1826. 1:09:12base chain but we know that the number
  1827. 1:09:15of users of Bitcoin is continually
  1828. 1:09:17increasing over time
  1829. 1:09:19but they might do this they might always
  1830. 1:09:21they might be just be hodlers or using
  1831. 1:09:24the lightning Network that's that's
  1832. 1:09:25number go up technology right there yeah
  1833. 1:09:26but what I'm saying is you could have a
  1834. 1:09:28scenario where people there just isn't
  1835. 1:09:30the number of transactions to create I
  1836. 1:09:33don't think that that can ever be the
  1837. 1:09:35case because
  1838. 1:09:37uh first of all you have to make layer
  1839. 1:09:40one transactions to use the lightning
  1840. 1:09:41Network you have to settle your
  1841. 1:09:43lightning channels eventually like you
  1842. 1:09:44have to manage channels and so people
  1843. 1:09:46will especially even if you're using the
  1844. 1:09:48lightning Network you're always going to
  1845. 1:09:49be at some point making L1 transaction
  1846. 1:09:51layer one transactions and then on top
  1847. 1:09:53of that uh the difficulty adjustment of
  1848. 1:09:56Bitcoin ensures that Bitcoin is always
  1849. 1:09:59paying the market rate for energy like
  1850. 1:10:01if
  1851. 1:10:02if it's not profitable for a majority of
  1852. 1:10:05minors to mine Bitcoin at the current
  1853. 1:10:07value and with the current transaction
  1854. 1:10:10fee environment or subsidy environment
  1855. 1:10:12they'll shut off production
  1856. 1:10:14the difficulty adjustment kicks in and
  1857. 1:10:17then it becomes profitable for somebody
  1858. 1:10:18to mine at that value hmm
  1859. 1:10:21so the difficulty adjustment I think
  1860. 1:10:23really takes care of a lot of this issue
  1861. 1:10:24like it will always be profitable for
  1862. 1:10:27somebody to be mining Bitcoin no I
  1863. 1:10:29agreed but but how many people are
  1864. 1:10:32competing to mine that Bitcoin and how
  1865. 1:10:34much security is there at that time I
  1866. 1:10:36think and bringing everything kind of
  1867. 1:10:39back to energy like one of my Visions
  1868. 1:10:42for the future is that energy production
  1869. 1:10:45is also extremely localized right yeah
  1870. 1:10:48so you know solar panels on your roof or
  1871. 1:10:51whatever or a local nuclear power plant
  1872. 1:10:53or something a new a little power plant
  1873. 1:10:56that you can put in your backyard
  1874. 1:10:57something like that
  1875. 1:10:59um and you're you're going to
  1876. 1:11:00individually have that problem of
  1877. 1:11:03uh supply and demand for energy so it's
  1878. 1:11:05like you're always going to need a tool
  1879. 1:11:07to buy up any excess Supply and
  1880. 1:11:10monetizing any amount of that is better
  1881. 1:11:13than shutting off production
  1882. 1:11:14so hashray's basically just gone up
  1883. 1:11:16forever yeah it's on an all-time high
  1884. 1:11:18right now I mean it crashed 40 when
  1885. 1:11:21China banned the Bitcoin but that came
  1886. 1:11:23back pretty quick oh my gosh yeah almost
  1887. 1:11:25immediately but do you think there's a
  1888. 1:11:26time where like the sort of ratio
  1889. 1:11:28between products and subsidy reached a
  1890. 1:11:30point where it has to start dropping
  1891. 1:11:31again
  1892. 1:11:32I don't think so because again like and
  1893. 1:11:37the problem the problem that Bitcoin
  1894. 1:11:39mining solves is not a Bitcoin problem
  1895. 1:11:41it's an energy problem like we're always
  1896. 1:11:44going to be imperfectly efficient at
  1897. 1:11:47energy production
  1898. 1:11:49and this is a tool that energy producers
  1899. 1:11:52can always use or rely on in a situation
  1900. 1:11:55where they can't you know deliver the
  1901. 1:11:57energy to you know people like it never
  1902. 1:12:00competes with individuals for uh energy
  1903. 1:12:04like in the UK I'm sure all Bitcoin
  1904. 1:12:07miners have essentially shut off
  1905. 1:12:08production yeah right because it's so
  1906. 1:12:10expensive to buy energy there that it's
  1907. 1:12:12we just don't have we just even before
  1908. 1:12:14this we just don't really have mining
  1909. 1:12:16yeah yeah it's too expensive before that
  1910. 1:12:18exactly so it's like mining always goes
  1911. 1:12:20to the places that is the remote
  1912. 1:12:22stranded energy the cheapest energy the
  1913. 1:12:24excess Hydro every single renewable
  1914. 1:12:27energy
  1915. 1:12:28um
  1916. 1:12:29setup should have Asics on site because
  1917. 1:12:32it's just a tool for them so yeah I
  1918. 1:12:35don't think it'll ever be a problem and
  1919. 1:12:36I think the prediction articles that
  1920. 1:12:38I've read have all made a lot of
  1921. 1:12:40mistakes because they're trying to
  1922. 1:12:43measure the value of the security in
  1923. 1:12:46like the dollar but the dollar is
  1924. 1:12:47changing value and there the Bitcoin is
  1925. 1:12:50changing value and so you have to think
  1926. 1:12:52about it from
  1927. 1:12:53Austrian first principles
  1928. 1:12:56um
  1929. 1:12:56in order to kind of have a deeper
  1930. 1:12:58understanding of it I think well this
  1931. 1:13:00wasn't the show we expected to make at
  1932. 1:13:01all not at all yeah last point on that
  1933. 1:13:03though before we close out
  1934. 1:13:05um that's like the argument that all the
  1935. 1:13:07East people are going to now try and
  1936. 1:13:08Target though that like Bitcoin minings
  1937. 1:13:10means you can't have a light on
  1938. 1:13:11but now they've gone through the state
  1939. 1:13:13that's going to be attacked
  1940. 1:13:14like hard yeah but it already started
  1941. 1:13:17haven't they yeah I mean they started as
  1942. 1:13:18soon as their timing for that transition
  1943. 1:13:20in terms of like trying to sort of
  1944. 1:13:22spread foot is perfect
  1945. 1:13:24um but do you worry about that like what
  1946. 1:13:26do you think about what ethereum I just
  1947. 1:13:28you know I
  1948. 1:13:30I'm I'm maybe like naively optimistic
  1949. 1:13:33about Bitcoin um I think that because we
  1950. 1:13:36have Bitcoin
  1951. 1:13:37um the transition to sound money isn't
  1952. 1:13:41going to be as catastrophic as some
  1953. 1:13:43people are thinking it's not going to be
  1954. 1:13:45pleasant for people
  1955. 1:13:46um I think that the ethereum uh
  1956. 1:13:49marketing is going to get more
  1957. 1:13:52aggressive but just the fact that
  1958. 1:13:55ethereum itself is inflation and they
  1959. 1:13:59keep changing things and so it doesn't
  1960. 1:14:00have a credible monetary policy and on
  1961. 1:14:03top of that it is money uh it doesn't
  1962. 1:14:06really do all that much else besides B
  1963. 1:14:08money you know you can print your own
  1964. 1:14:10money on top of their money you can
  1965. 1:14:12produce some tokens some nfts which are
  1966. 1:14:16again kind of like forms of money so
  1967. 1:14:18it's just money
  1968. 1:14:20but it's way crappier at being money
  1969. 1:14:22than Bitcoin and so no amount of
  1970. 1:14:25marketing will ultimately overcome that
  1971. 1:14:28um yeah is it gonna get worse sure I
  1972. 1:14:32think what we're seeing is a lot of
  1973. 1:14:36there's more and more people that are
  1974. 1:14:37waking up to this idea that Bitcoin
  1975. 1:14:39mining actually fortifies the grid so
  1976. 1:14:42we're already seeing articles you know
  1977. 1:14:43here in Texas about during the recent
  1978. 1:14:45heat wave
  1979. 1:14:47the grid was able to tap into one
  1980. 1:14:49percent additional energy by just asking
  1981. 1:14:52the miners to shut off production what's
  1982. 1:14:54cool about mining is yeah you just flip
  1983. 1:14:56a switch and then the energy is diverted
  1984. 1:14:58somewhere else yeah and then if they if
  1985. 1:15:00there's too much energy just flip the
  1986. 1:15:02switch back on you start buying the
  1987. 1:15:03cheap energy again so it's a really
  1988. 1:15:05again super useful tool for energy
  1989. 1:15:08production
  1990. 1:15:09um so yeah I think I think the economic
  1991. 1:15:12reality of the fact that Bitcoin is
  1992. 1:15:14sound money
  1993. 1:15:16will just overcome any sort of marketing
  1994. 1:15:19that is levied against it as it has for
  1995. 1:15:21the last 13 years I mean
  1996. 1:15:23I was just talking to some family
  1997. 1:15:25members the other day they're like man
  1998. 1:15:27I've been hearing some really bad stuff
  1999. 1:15:29about Bitcoin and it's like yeah that's
  2000. 1:15:31always been the case there's never been
  2001. 1:15:33a moment I've been in Bitcoin for many
  2002. 1:15:34years and it's always been dumped on by
  2003. 1:15:38everybody right mainstream media
  2004. 1:15:41governments [ __ ] coiners like everybody
  2005. 1:15:44is constantly dumping on bitcoin but the
  2006. 1:15:48thing is anti-fragile it it absorbs all
  2007. 1:15:50that and becomes stronger and the I
  2008. 1:15:53think the clearest example of that
  2009. 1:15:56is or one of the clearest examples is
  2010. 1:15:59when China banned mining last year yep
  2011. 1:16:01you saw a 40 crash in hash rate and then
  2012. 1:16:05it immediately hit you know all-time
  2013. 1:16:07high against after the course of maybe
  2014. 1:16:09like three months
  2015. 1:16:10and the the position that Bitcoin is in
  2016. 1:16:13after the fact is way stronger than
  2017. 1:16:16before because all that hash rate has
  2018. 1:16:17dispersed across the globe yep so when
  2019. 1:16:19you try to ban this thing uh you you
  2020. 1:16:23increase the level of decentralization
  2021. 1:16:25of it it's it gets stronger every time
  2022. 1:16:27you attack it if you've got that shot
  2023. 1:16:29for uh Harry yeah I sent him that he did
  2024. 1:16:32you gotta envelope that's brilliant so
  2025. 1:16:34this is uh every child you need for
  2026. 1:16:36Bitcoin whenever you have an argument
  2027. 1:16:37with somebody discussing Bitcoin just
  2028. 1:16:40sending this
  2029. 1:16:41I can't find it
  2030. 1:16:44I tried to describe Bitcoin to some
  2031. 1:16:47people by showing them the Huddle waves
  2032. 1:16:48to start didn't go that well
  2033. 1:16:52exactly exactly all right do you want to
  2034. 1:16:55give a shout out to Unchained before we
  2035. 1:16:56finish
  2036. 1:16:57sure so uh yeah I'm Phil Geiger I'm uh
  2037. 1:17:00managing director of concierge at
  2038. 1:17:02Unchained and uh what we do is we help
  2039. 1:17:04people hold the private keys to their
  2040. 1:17:06Bitcoin in a way that you're not going
  2041. 1:17:07to lose your Bitcoin so one of the
  2042. 1:17:09biggest problems with self-custody is
  2043. 1:17:11the thought of like oh man I make one
  2044. 1:17:13mistake I've lost my life savings we use
  2045. 1:17:15a type of address that has a bunch of
  2046. 1:17:17redundancies so that if you lose a piece
  2047. 1:17:19of information you haven't lost your
  2048. 1:17:21Bitcoin this is all Native to the
  2049. 1:17:22protocol it's multi-signature and my
  2050. 1:17:25team will help walk you through how to
  2051. 1:17:27set this up from A to Z and then we take
  2052. 1:17:28care of people after the fact what's
  2053. 1:17:31cool about Unchained is from a position
  2054. 1:17:33of extreme security multi-signature
  2055. 1:17:36addresses where you have the keys you
  2056. 1:17:38can then do a bunch of cool Financial uh
  2057. 1:17:40products like you can hold Bitcoin in a
  2058. 1:17:42retirement account in an IRA where you
  2059. 1:17:43actually hold the keys you can buy
  2060. 1:17:45Bitcoin from us directly into Cold
  2061. 1:17:47Storage there's no other counterparties
  2062. 1:17:49that you're dealing with you can take a
  2063. 1:17:50loan using your Bitcoin as collateral
  2064. 1:17:52we're really trying to build a full
  2065. 1:17:54Suite financial services company on top
  2066. 1:17:56of this Foundation of clients holding
  2067. 1:17:58their own keys on top of multi-signature
  2068. 1:18:00which is again just native to bitcoin
  2069. 1:18:02it's one of the tools that Bitcoin
  2070. 1:18:03affords us awesome man all right Phil
  2071. 1:18:06good to see you please go and check out
  2072. 1:18:07Unchained uh we didn't plan to talk
  2073. 1:18:09about any of this so uh yeah here's what
  2074. 1:18:11it is man Cheers Cheers

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