The Fed Hiked. Tom Lee Is Still Bullish. — Transcript

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1. 0:00The reality is the Fed raising rates
2. 0:02isn't going to slow down AI spending.
3. 0:04So, Cisco ended up going to 80.
4. 0:08And that was a 10 100x from the you
5. 0:10know, from
6. 0:11which if Ethereum can break 5,000, you
7. 0:14know, we think it could go
8. 0:17a 10x from here.
9. 0:24Welcome to our September monthly market
10. 0:26update.
11. 0:28We are almost three force through 2026.
12. 0:32Um
13. 0:33we had
14. 0:35talked about how this year we expected
15. 0:37this to be a very challenging year, but
16. 0:39ultimately one that delivers
17. 0:40double-digit gains. And
18. 0:43I think it's tracking to our case so
19. 0:45far.
20. 0:47That being said,
21. 0:49I do think the current risk-reward is
22. 0:51actually positive for stocks.
23. 0:54So, [clears throat] our webinar
24. 0:56is macro section.
25. 0:59is
26. 1:01The title is staying bullish even with a
27. 1:03hawkish Fed.
28. 1:06And I know that that's fueling the
29. 1:08anti-AI movement, but in our view,
30. 1:12I don't think there's going to be much
31. 1:13job loss from AI. And I'll I'll explain
32. 1:16a couple of reasons why. First, as a
33. 1:18fact pattern, and this is a study from
34. 1:20Hubstaff, but there's other companies
35. 1:22that have corroborated this.
36. 1:24In a typical work week, only about 25%
37. 1:27or 10 out of the 40 hours that anyone
38. 1:29works is spent on real work. Most people
39. 1:32spend their work day
40. 1:34getting ready to do work, getting their
41. 1:36coffee, reading the email, thinking
42. 1:39about what they're going to say.
43. 1:41Um very little of the work we do today
44. 1:43is actually real work.
45. 1:46The second thing to point out is that
46. 1:48only one in four jobs are quote real
47. 1:51jobs based on a study by Asana.
48. 1:54Cisco's a good example. From '94 to '97,
49. 1:57Cisco went from 80 cents to $9.
50. 2:00And then we had the Asia financial
51. 2:01crisis and it fell by 40%.
52. 2:04People would have said that was the end,
53. 2:05but then Cisco a year later went to 18.
54. 2:09But then long-term capital happened and
55. 2:10it fell 40%. People would have said,
56. 2:13"Oh, well, there it is, the top again."
57. 2:15Cisco ended up going to 80.
58. 2:18And that was a 10 100x from the low, you
59. 2:20know, from 1994. I think that's probably
60. 2:23a good analog and I think we're right
61. 2:25here today.
62. 2:26But AI stocks won't go up forever.
63. 2:31>> [clears throat]
64. 2:31>> But the AI
65. 2:34trade is creating inflationary pressures
66. 2:37on memory and energy consumption.
67. 2:41Um
68. 2:43those are bottlenecks. The reality is
69. 2:45the Fed raising rates isn't going to
70. 2:47slow down AI spending. So,
71. 2:50uh I think in many ways,
72. 2:52uh and again,
73. 2:54flash memory doesn't really show up in
74. 2:55consumer CPI anyway. So, I think we
75. 2:57should just be mindful
76. 2:59the market's selling off today
77. 3:02because of good PMIs.
78. 3:05It's probably just a reminder that
79. 3:06that's the way the psychology is at the
80. 3:08moment.
81. 3:12And uh Ethereum has been consolidating
82. 3:15for 5 years now.
83. 3:17Uh there have been two other times
84. 3:19Ethereum's consolidated this way and
85. 3:22they were resolved with upside
86. 3:23breakouts.
87. 3:25The first one was a 62x upside breakout.
88. 3:27The second one was a 17x.
89. 3:30So, we're faced with the third one,
90. 3:32uh which if Ethereum can break 5,000,
91. 3:36you know, we think it could go
92. 3:38uh a 10x from here.
93. 3:40Actually, I'd love to bring Mark back
94. 3:42into this conversation and get his take
95. 3:44on
96. 3:45crypto here.
97. 3:58>> Mhm.