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The Easiest Day Trading Strategy — Transcript

by The Moving Average · 1,537 words · 208 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00This is one of those strategies where
  2. 0:01you can do it whether you're a full-time
  3. 0:03student, you have a full-time job, or
  4. 0:05you full-time have other to do. A
  5. 0:07few weeks ago, I made a video about my
  6. 0:09top three strategies that I use more
  7. 0:12consistently than anything else. I've
  8. 0:14already made a video on Fibonacci
  9. 0:15retracements, and I've already made the
  10. 0:17other video on RSI divergences and what
  11. 0:20my secret sauce is. In this video, I'm
  12. 0:22going to explain in depth my Tokyo range
  13. 0:26breakout strategy because I recognize
  14. 0:28this pattern when I'm looking at the
  15. 0:30charts and I have the Tokyo range marked
  16. 0:33out from top to bottom and side to side.
  17. 0:35Now, the reason I made this concept is
  18. 0:38because I wanted to show somebody
  19. 0:40something that they could do without
  20. 0:43spending hours and hours and hours on
  21. 0:46the charts every single week. All you
  22. 0:48have to do is first identify the range
  23. 0:51or have an indicator that identifies the
  24. 0:53range for you, hop on the chart once,
  25. 0:55set up two positions, and that's it.
  26. 0:58It's hands-off, you let it ride. This is
  27. 1:00one of those strategies where you can do
  28. 1:02it whether you're a full-time student,
  29. 1:04you have a full-time job, or you
  30. 1:05full-time have other to do. Now,
  31. 1:07I'm going to show you how this looks on
  32. 1:09EUR/USD over the last 7 days and over
  33. 1:12the last 30 days. Then you can decide
  34. 1:14for yourself whether this is something
  35. 1:15that interests you. So, let's get into
  36. 1:18it. Now, because I am lazy as all hell
  37. 1:21and I like computers and technology,
  38. 1:23instead of drawing a box around every
  39. 1:25single Tokyo range and drawing my
  40. 1:27position tools and doing hundreds of
  41. 1:29back tests, I created an indicator that
  42. 1:32just does it for me. Now, it's very
  43. 1:33simple. All it does is draw a box around
  44. 1:37the Tokyo session. The Tokyo session, a
  45. 1:40majority of the planet is asleep.
  46. 1:42Therefore, if a majority of the banks,
  47. 1:45financial institutions, and hedge funds
  48. 1:47are asleep, that means the volume is
  49. 1:49going to be lower during that time. At
  50. 1:51least far less volume than there is when
  51. 1:54London session and New York session are
  52. 1:56engaging at the same time. So, because
  53. 1:58of the low volume and low volatility, I
  54. 2:01like to think of it as more of a
  55. 2:02consolidation range, even though price
  56. 2:04may not be consolidating. This right
  57. 2:06here is the start of the range. This
  58. 2:08right here is the end of the range. We
  59. 2:10have the price range high and the price
  60. 2:12range low. And all I do is wait for a
  61. 2:14candle to break out and close above the
  62. 2:17range for a long position, or for a
  63. 2:19short position, break out and close
  64. 2:22below the range. Now, as it stands right
  65. 2:24now, just for an example, I have the
  66. 2:26stop loss set at 50% of the total range,
  67. 2:30meaning that if I measure this whole
  68. 2:32range, it is 14 pips, so my stop loss is
  69. 2:35going to be 7 pips. And my take profit
  70. 2:38is two times my risk, so it's a 1:2 risk
  71. 2:41to reward ratio. Now, I have the moving
  72. 2:42average filter on here, not because it's
  73. 2:45a bias for entry, but just to show you
  74. 2:47visually to see where price is trending.
  75. 2:50You can see during the Tokyo session it
  76. 2:52was consolidating around the moving
  77. 2:54average, and then once it broke out and
  78. 2:56above, it kept trending up. Now, I'm
  79. 2:58going to scroll through all of these
  80. 3:00trades, and you can see it does not work
  81. 3:02every time, and price does tend to spike
  82. 3:05out and reverse down and capture
  83. 3:07liquidity from both ranges. These types
  84. 3:10of days, I hate trading because all day
  85. 3:13you can see what it does. It's just
  86. 3:15wishy-washy, back and forth, capturing
  87. 3:17liquidity from the high and the low of
  88. 3:19the range. And the most frustrating
  89. 3:21thing with days like this is that it
  90. 3:24looks like aggressive movements, because
  91. 3:26this one candle here was probably 15
  92. 3:29pips, and it looks like an aggressive
  93. 3:32bullish candle, but all it was was just
  94. 3:34sweeping liquidity from the top and from
  95. 3:37the bottom. But most days, when price is
  96. 3:39healthy and there's no absurd stupid
  97. 3:41interest rate news, price tends to go
  98. 3:44pretty consistently in one direction for
  99. 3:46a majority of the day. And this is a
  100. 3:48pattern that I recognized. So, whatever
  101. 3:50the Tokyo range was, if price breaks out
  102. 3:53below it, it usually tends to go in that
  103. 3:55direction. And as you can see, I have
  104. 3:57all of these trades marked out. It is
  105. 3:59not a do-all, be-all indicator. This is
  106. 4:02simply a trading strategy and system
  107. 4:05that anybody can use. Like I said,
  108. 4:07people have lives. They have their own
  109. 4:09obligations, and they can't be sitting
  110. 4:12on the charts all the time. I now have
  111. 4:14another kid on the way, and I need less
  112. 4:17time in front of a computer and more
  113. 4:19time being with them. And even if I was
  114. 4:21a student who had a full-time job, I can
  115. 4:24go to the bathroom and set up this trade
  116. 4:26in 3 minutes. But you get a nice,
  117. 4:28healthy, consistent 1:2 risk-to-reward
  118. 4:31ratio, and all it is is one trade a day.
  119. 4:34If it doesn't work out, that's fine.
  120. 4:37Maximum you lose that day is 1%. You
  121. 4:40can't revenge trade your way out of this
  122. 4:42because there's no other setups
  123. 4:43according to this strategy. And then you
  124. 4:45just wait for the next day. Some trades
  125. 4:47are going to be bigger, some trades are
  126. 4:48going to be smaller, especially
  127. 4:49especially if you're using fixed lot
  128. 4:51sizes. Because as you can see here, this
  129. 4:54entire take profit range was 12 pips,
  130. 4:57whereas back here, it was 18. And over
  131. 5:00the last 7 days on EUR/USD trading this
  132. 5:03once a day, we have a 60% win rate out
  133. 5:06of the five trading days of the week,
  134. 5:08Monday through Friday. And because it's
  135. 5:10a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, the profit
  136. 5:13factor with 60% winning trades is 3.4.
  137. 5:16Now, if we look at the last 30 days, we
  138. 5:19have a 63% win rate and a 3.8 profit
  139. 5:22factor. So over the last 30 days on
  140. 5:25EUR/USD, we had 22 total trades. Of
  141. 5:28those trades, 14 were losers and eight
  142. 5:31were winners. Now, eight losing trades
  143. 5:34is minus 8%, and 14 winning trades is
  144. 5:37plus 28%. If you're up 28% and then you
  145. 5:40lose 8%, you have net profit on your
  146. 5:43account of 20%. Now, don't Don't me
  147. 5:45wrong. This is just a spectacular month
  148. 5:48of price action for this specific
  149. 5:50strategy on this specific pair with this
  150. 5:53specific take profit and stop loss. If
  151. 5:55we run the chart out to the last 90
  152. 5:58days, we have a profit factor of 1.6
  153. 6:01and 46% profitable trades. So, less than
  154. 6:04half of the trades played out in your
  155. 6:05favor. And the reason I'm sharing this
  156. 6:07strategy with you is because a lot of
  157. 6:09people do not have time to dedicate to
  158. 6:12the charts. And this is something that
  159. 6:14anybody can do. It requires zero
  160. 6:16technical analysis. All you have to do
  161. 6:18is know how to draw a box around a
  162. 6:20specific time frame and set up your
  163. 6:23trades once a day. Once a day, every day
  164. 6:26keeps the doctor away. What I'd like you
  165. 6:27to do is set up a demo account, see if
  166. 6:29you're capable of hopping on the charts
  167. 6:31at least once a day, set this trade up,
  168. 6:34and see how it plays out. Do a forward
  169. 6:36test of 30 days. Consider it a 30-day
  170. 6:39challenge. Look back at your results in
  171. 6:41a month, and you'll have actual proof
  172. 6:44that you can follow the rules for 30
  173. 6:45days, so you should have 20 trades
  174. 6:48because there's only five trading days
  175. 6:49per week, four weeks per month equals
  176. 6:5220. If you can do this consistently on a
  177. 6:54demo account risking the same risk, 1%
  178. 6:57risk, and a 2% take profit on every
  179. 7:00trade for a month, it's going to be
  180. 7:02fantastic practice for you, and you'll
  181. 7:05be able to see that you yourself can
  182. 7:07execute these trades consistently, and
  183. 7:10maybe if market continues in this
  184. 7:12direction, you'll have a decent win rate
  185. 7:15and a nice profit factor. And the best
  186. 7:17part is I'll also run this experiment
  187. 7:19with you. I'll be posting the trade
  188. 7:20setup every single day on my Telegram
  189. 7:22group starting on Monday. So, you won't
  190. 7:24even have to do the analysis. I know
  191. 7:26some of you might find this too boring
  192. 7:28or not technical enough, but I feel like
  193. 7:30a majority of the people need something
  194. 7:32simple, not overcomplicated, something
  195. 7:34that they can do consistently, that
  196. 7:36doesn't cause a lot of stress,
  197. 7:37heartache, and agony when it comes to
  198. 7:40eight to 12 trades a day, super high
  199. 7:43stress, low time frame, which kind of
  200. 7:46causes revenge trading. If it's just
  201. 7:48once a day, it's like having a morning
  202. 7:50cup of coffee. Set it up, walk away, see
  203. 7:53what happened the next day. Anyway, I
  204. 7:54hope you guys enjoyed this video. I hope
  205. 7:56this is something simple enough for you
  206. 7:57guys to actually try on your own. Thank
  207. 8:00you so much for watching, and we will
  208. 8:02see you in the next one.

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