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The Delta-Neutral Setup: How To Profit In Any Market Direction — Transcript

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  1. 0:00You can make a lot of money. The
  2. 0:01strategy is easier. It's based on maths.
  3. 0:04So, if you can do basic maths, you can
  4. 0:06do it. If the market stays flat, I make
  5. 0:08profit. If the market goes up, I make
  6. 0:10profit. If the market comes down a
  7. 0:12little bit, I make profit. My goal was
  8. 0:14to double the account in 1 year, but I
  9. 0:17ended up doubling it in just a few
  10. 0:18months. In a delta neutral strategy,
  11. 0:20instead of predicting the market
  12. 0:22direction, we take both sides of the
  13. 0:24trade. So, even if I start from $100,
  14. 0:27the price goes to 95, even though
  15. 0:29technically the stock is down, but I'm
  16. 0:31still winning. As the time passes, you
  17. 0:33see this gap grows because your
  18. 0:35near-term option is growing at a faster
  19. 0:37rate. As this gap grows, this is our
  20. 0:40profit, but this is where our edge comes
  21. 0:42from. Based on the back test for several
  22. 0:44last years, I know what the win rate is
  23. 0:46going to be, what the expectancy is
  24. 0:48going to be, and I can just execute that
  25. 0:50strategy every week.
  26. 0:52>> So, you you are the casino.
  27. 0:55>> You can say that.
  28. 1:00>> Welcome to Undiscovered Traders. Today,
  29. 1:02we welcome Ravish from Greater New York,
  30. 1:04currently completing his $1 million
  31. 1:06challenge trading two very unique
  32. 1:08strategies we've actually never had
  33. 1:10covered before on the podcast. Joined
  34. 1:13him for last year, already setting up
  35. 1:14$327,000
  36. 1:17in broker verified profits. And this is
  37. 1:19kind of the crazy part.
  38. 1:22He's done it without ever looking at a
  39. 1:24chart and executing roughly 2 hours a
  40. 1:27day. So, this is a potential strategy
  41. 1:29for part-time traders. And today, we're
  42. 1:31going to look at his delta neutral
  43. 1:33strategy and his time spread strategy.
  44. 1:36He's got a full deck, full strategy all
  45. 1:38prepared to walk you through walk us
  46. 1:40through for you guys. Full value, but
  47. 1:41first there
  48. 1:44How are you, Ravish?
  49. 1:46>> I'm good. Very well. Thank you for
  50. 1:48having me.
  51. 1:49>> You've made I mean, we've got like
  52. 1:51300,000 plus verified. I think it's a
  53. 1:53bit more than that. But you've made
  54. 1:55$300,000
  55. 1:57without
  56. 1:58uh looking at charts. Can you just What
  57. 2:00do you look at if you're not looking at
  58. 2:01charts?
  59. 2:03>> So, I make my trades using option
  60. 2:05Greeks. I'm an option seller.
  61. 2:07So, the strategies that I practice are
  62. 2:10actually systematic strategies. They are
  63. 2:12based on option Greeks and options data.
  64. 2:15And everything is priced into those
  65. 2:18premiums, and we can use that to make
  66. 2:20these trades
  67. 2:21without having to worry about what's
  68. 2:22going on in the chart.
  69. 2:25>> Nice. And I just want For the For the
  70. 2:27people watching, comment below like what
  71. 2:29your experience level is with options.
  72. 2:31I'm just curious
  73. 2:32uh if people how how experienced they
  74. 2:35are in it because I think options are
  75. 2:36starting to boom now, but what would you
  76. 2:38say is the kind of the advantages to the
  77. 2:40strategies that you're about to kind of
  78. 2:42walk people through and teach people
  79. 2:43today?
  80. 2:44>> So, most people when they start with
  81. 2:46options, they start by buying options.
  82. 2:48They buy call and puts. And when you do
  83. 2:51that, you are fighting against the time
  84. 2:53because there is something called theta
  85. 2:55premium.
  86. 2:56And your option decays very rapidly. And
  87. 3:00if the price does not move fast enough,
  88. 3:03then your options go to zero. So,
  89. 3:04statistically, 80% of the options go to
  90. 3:07zero. And that's why most option buyers
  91. 3:10lose money.
  92. 3:11So, that means people who are on the
  93. 3:13selling side of the options, they can
  94. 3:15win most of the time because they are
  95. 3:17the ones selling these options.
  96. 3:18>> You were telling me a couple of things
  97. 3:20just before
  98. 3:21um before we went on the air, and it was
  99. 3:23kind of you you said that your strategy
  100. 3:25was too easy. Was it or was it was hard
  101. 3:28it was hard to go wrong?
  102. 3:30Tell me a bit about that.
  103. 3:32>> So, it's it's too easy for me now
  104. 3:34because I've been doing it for many
  105. 3:36years.
  106. 3:37Uh but for someone who's new, it's
  107. 3:39initially going to be definitely there
  108. 3:41is going to be a learning curve, but
  109. 3:43it's well worth it.
  110. 3:44>> It's very easy to make mistakes. But for
  111. 3:46with your strategy, you were saying
  112. 3:47there's more of a
  113. 3:48a margin for error. Can you tell me a
  114. 3:50bit about that?
  115. 3:52>> Yeah, so most traders what they do is
  116. 3:55they try to predict the price. They look
  117. 3:57at the charts, they look at the
  118. 3:58patterns, and they try to predict where
  119. 4:01the market is going today, where is it
  120. 4:03going next week. And uh based on the
  121. 4:06chart patterns, statistically, there is
  122. 4:09no real proven edge in it. Some people
  123. 4:11have developed their system with a lot
  124. 4:14of experience and instinct. But if we we
  125. 4:17are clearly looking at technical, there
  126. 4:18is no like clear technical pattern which
  127. 4:21we can say that you just follow this
  128. 4:23pattern mechanically and it's going to
  129. 4:24work.
  130. 4:25But when we come to the option selling
  131. 4:27side, there is a risk premium baked into
  132. 4:30the options. So when you are selling
  133. 4:32options, you have an edge.
  134. 4:34And I don't have to be precise on my
  135. 4:37timing or my entry. I can have a lot of
  136. 4:40room for error. The market can go up,
  137. 4:42down, or in circles, and I can still
  138. 4:44make profit in any market condition. So
  139. 4:46last year I started a brand new account.
  140. 4:49Now in the past I've made millions in
  141. 4:51profits, but last year I was like, if I
  142. 4:53were to start a new account with
  143. 4:55$100,000, can I make 10K a month with
  144. 4:57it? Which is like a goal for a lot of
  145. 4:59people.
  146. 5:00So
  147. 5:01turned out that was too easy. Right off
  148. 5:03the bat, in the first months I started
  149. 5:05to make 15, 20,000 dollars with it. My
  150. 5:08goal was to double the account in 1
  151. 5:10year, but I ended up doubling it in just
  152. 5:12a few months. So I was like, this is too
  153. 5:14easy, I need to level it up. So then now
  154. 5:17my new benchmark is how do how fast can
  155. 5:20I grow this to a million dollars?
  156. 5:22There's no fixed timeline for it, but we
  157. 5:24are now 14 months in, and the account is
  158. 5:27already at 450,000 now.
  159. 5:30>> So many people are getting 10% interest
  160. 5:32a year.
  161. 5:33I mean, how many hedge funds are out
  162. 5:35there? And people are putting all of
  163. 5:37their savings, 100, 200,000 of their
  164. 5:38savings, and they're lucky if they get
  165. 5:4010% in the year, if it's a good year.
  166. 5:42Especially in the United States, it's
  167. 5:44it's been a little bit the the SPY and
  168. 5:47the Qs have been returning less than
  169. 5:49than the markets in Europe these days.
  170. 5:53>> Yeah, absolutely. For most people, 10% a
  171. 5:56year is the S&P benchmark. And here I'm
  172. 5:59able to compound this account in 10 to
  173. 6:0215% a month. Now, when people think of
  174. 6:04compounding, people think of compounding
  175. 6:07on an annual basis, but compounding is
  176. 6:10actually based on intervals. It can be a
  177. 6:12monthly thing. It can be quarterly
  178. 6:14thing. The faster you can compound the
  179. 6:17shorter intervals you have, the more
  180. 6:19profit you can make with it.
  181. 6:22>> So, I've got two questions really for
  182. 6:25you. I mean, first of all, I think it's
  183. 6:26it's an incredible return on investment
  184. 6:28of a system that returns 10% a month
  185. 6:30kind of systematically rather than
  186. 6:32discretionary day traders who are
  187. 6:35making 25% or 30% over a couple of
  188. 6:38months and then they've lost 100% when
  189. 6:40they blow up on shorting the crazy meme
  190. 6:42stock or something like that. I think
  191. 6:45I'm really looking forward to getting
  192. 6:46into your strategy, but I mean, first of
  193. 6:48all,
  194. 6:49um
  195. 6:50do you need a lot of money to do this?
  196. 6:51For the people learning, can you start
  197. 6:53small?
  198. 6:54>> Yeah, absolutely. You can start with as
  199. 6:56little as you want. In fact, if you're
  200. 6:59new, I would recommend you to start with
  201. 7:01as little as possible because no matter
  202. 7:04what strategy you try, there is going to
  203. 7:05be learning curve. Initially, you can
  204. 7:07lose money.
  205. 7:08So, the goal should be to lose as little
  206. 7:10as possible while you're learning
  207. 7:13so that you don't get
  208. 7:15you don't get hurt by the market. The
  209. 7:18The mistake some people do is they start
  210. 7:20with two large positions. They have a
  211. 7:22couple of bad losses, and it sets you
  212. 7:24back and and it demotivates you from
  213. 7:27even trying something new
  214. 7:29because you might be close to getting a
  215. 7:31positive expectancy. You might be close
  216. 7:33to getting that edge, but now you have
  217. 7:36had a setback, you are going to stop
  218. 7:39trying it.
  219. 7:40>> How easy is this to for people to learn
  220. 7:42and replicate because I think for some
  221. 7:44newer traders these are some scary
  222. 7:46sounding words delta delta neutral time
  223. 7:49time spread strategy.
  224. 7:51>> So
  225. 7:52most people the thing is that most
  226. 7:55people are not aware that something like
  227. 7:57this exists.
  228. 7:58But once you understand the basics
  229. 8:01at some point it will become a second
  230. 8:02nature
  231. 8:03because
  232. 8:04if you are brand new to trading there is
  233. 8:06a learning curve but this is way easier
  234. 8:09than charting and technical analysis and
  235. 8:11doing all those patterns and indicators.
  236. 8:14>> I love that. So it's easier. It's it's
  237. 8:16the strategy is easier it's just less
  238. 8:18conventional.
  239. 8:19>> It's based on maths. So if you can do
  240. 8:21basic maths you can do it.
  241. 8:24>> And just just lastly
  242. 8:26first you have a YouTube channel right?
  243. 8:27So people want to watch this and learn
  244. 8:29more about it.
  245. 8:30You've got a ton of videos.
  246. 8:33>> Yeah I teach almost all of my strategies
  247. 8:36in-depth on my YouTube channel. So if
  248. 8:38you like any of these strategies you can
  249. 8:40go to my channel and watch full videos
  250. 8:42on them
  251. 8:43where you can learn them how to get
  252. 8:44started with it.
  253. 8:46>> Guys and the the link is in the
  254. 8:48description below and just before you go
  255. 8:50through your strategy two strategies
  256. 8:52actually two option strategies before
  257. 8:54you go into that just quickly I know I
  258. 8:56know we've we've only got 300,000
  259. 8:58verified for you on Kimble because
  260. 9:00because you've just uploaded the broker
  261. 9:02last year.
  262. 9:03So what's how long you've been trading
  263. 9:04for? What's your total profits?
  264. 9:07>> So I've been trading for almost 10 years
  265. 9:09now. Initially when I started it was
  266. 9:13it was actually a stroke of luck. I went
  267. 9:15to the Robinhood app to buy stocks. My
  268. 9:18goal was I will buy Fang apps Fang
  269. 9:20stocks.
  270. 9:21And when I clicked on the trade button
  271. 9:23it showed another button called trade
  272. 9:25options.
  273. 9:26So initially I thought it would give me
  274. 9:28some options some advanced options to
  275. 9:30submit my order.
  276. 9:31And then I clicked on it and learned
  277. 9:33about calls and puts it was something
  278. 9:35brand new to me.
  279. 9:36And I was like this sounds fascinating.
  280. 9:38I can control with 100 shares of a
  281. 9:40company like Meta for just a few hundred
  282. 9:42dollars.
  283. 9:44So, I was like, okay, let me try it. And
  284. 9:46I put in $500 in my first trade. Next
  285. 9:48day, it turned into $2,500.
  286. 9:51>> Oh.
  287. 9:51>> And then another trade next day, next
  288. 9:53day overnight trade, made another
  289. 9:55$1,500. So, in my first week, I made
  290. 9:58like $5,000 without even knowing what I
  291. 10:00was doing.
  292. 10:02And I started my account with just
  293. 10:03$2,000.
  294. 10:05So, I was like, this is amazing. I'm now
  295. 10:07going to do this and retire from
  296. 10:08everything else. I was working in tech
  297. 10:10back then.
  298. 10:11So, I was like, this is too easy. I
  299. 10:13should do this all the time.
  300. 10:16But but that beginner's luck didn't last
  301. 10:19very long. And then I losing money as
  302. 10:21most traders do.
  303. 10:23And
  304. 10:24I spent several years trying to chase
  305. 10:26that rabbit hole doing technical
  306. 10:28analysis on charts, buying options,
  307. 10:31losing money.
  308. 10:33It was an expensive lesson.
  309. 10:35But I think every trader needs a journey
  310. 10:37like that to get to a point where you
  311. 10:40find something that works for you.
  312. 10:43And then I learned about option selling.
  313. 10:45And
  314. 10:46I was like, this I like this because I
  315. 10:49don't have to look charts, I don't have
  316. 10:51to be good at technical analysis.
  317. 10:53I can just do simple maths and bet on
  318. 10:56probabilities
  319. 10:58and have the house advantage. Because
  320. 11:00when you are buying options, you are
  321. 11:02like a gambler trying to time the market
  322. 11:05or play your luck. But when you are
  323. 11:06selling, you are the house. You have the
  324. 11:08house advantage.
  325. 11:10>> So, you you are the casino.
  326. 11:13>> You can say that.
  327. 11:15>> You you are the casino. It's like It's
  328. 11:17like rubbish palace, not Caesar's palace
  329. 11:19um in Las Vegas. But I'm curious to get
  330. 11:22into it. Do you want to open up the Do
  331. 11:24you want to open up the deck and and
  332. 11:25let's see let's see this strategy.
  333. 11:28>> Okay. So, a little bit about me. Uh been
  334. 11:31trading options for more than 10 years
  335. 11:33now. I had a career in tech. I retired
  336. 11:36from my career a couple of years ago
  337. 11:38when I hit a point where my options
  338. 11:40income was more than my full-time job.
  339. 11:42So, at that point it made sense to go
  340. 11:44all in on it because I thought that I
  341. 11:47could be I should be able to do much
  342. 11:48better.
  343. 11:49And uh like I said, I started out with
  344. 11:51the beginner's luck. But then there were
  345. 11:53several years of period where it was hit
  346. 11:56and trial, losing money, learning
  347. 11:58different thing. I had a big setback
  348. 12:01during COVID period. By that time I was
  349. 12:04like, "Okay, I need to do something
  350. 12:06better here."
  351. 12:07Because uh most of because buying
  352. 12:10options I'm losing most of the time. So,
  353. 12:12I learned that there is a selling side
  354. 12:13of options also. Who are making profit
  355. 12:16off me.
  356. 12:17So, I decided to learn that side. I
  357. 12:19started selling options. Initially, when
  358. 12:21most people start with selling options,
  359. 12:23they start with simple strategies like
  360. 12:26selling cash-secured puts, selling
  361. 12:28covered calls. Which can work well. A
  362. 12:30lot of people make 20 to 40% annual
  363. 12:33return with those kind of strategies and
  364. 12:35they have been battle-tested for many
  365. 12:37years and they work well. And they have
  366. 12:39a lot of margin of error.
  367. 12:41Um
  368. 12:42but then I was like, "Okay, how do I do
  369. 12:45something better?" Because at that point
  370. 12:47my account was relatively small. I was
  371. 12:49trading with about 20 30,000 dollars.
  372. 12:51So, even if I made 10 20 percent in a
  373. 12:54year, it was not really worth of the
  374. 12:56time. So, I was like, "I need to do
  375. 12:58something exponential here."
  376. 13:00Um and then I started to contribute more
  377. 13:04to my account. I was growing my account
  378. 13:06consistently. I started to use some more
  379. 13:08leverage.
  380. 13:09And I was doing really well
  381. 13:11until 2022. In 2021, I had a blockbuster
  382. 13:15year.
  383. 13:16And in 2022, I realized that was a bull
  384. 13:18market genius.
  385. 13:20That when everything is going up, it's
  386. 13:22easy to make money.
  387. 13:23When everything goes down, you get
  388. 13:26crushed hard.
  389. 13:27And uh
  390. 13:29at that point I decided that I will
  391. 13:31focus on something called a delta
  392. 13:33neutral strategy.
  393. 13:35In a delta neutral strategy, instead of
  394. 13:37predicting the market direction, we take
  395. 13:40both sides of the trade.
  396. 13:42And if the market trades in that range,
  397. 13:45you make profit. And the best thing
  398. 13:47about that is that delta neutral
  399. 13:49strategies are even more profitable in a
  400. 13:52down year like 2022.
  401. 13:56>> Nice. Interesting. So is a delta neutral
  402. 13:57is is it kind of like you want the stock
  403. 14:00to stay where it is? Or like is it like
  404. 14:02a butterfly pattern or something like
  405. 14:04that?
  406. 14:05>> Yeah, there are a lot of different
  407. 14:07patterns. Uh
  408. 14:08delta neutral is one umbrella term for
  409. 14:11several different option structures.
  410. 14:13Simplest one is triangle and iron
  411. 14:15condor. We can dive into some examples
  412. 14:18on how they work.
  413. 14:20Uh once you understand, it's fairly easy
  414. 14:22to do.
  415. 14:23>> But can I just understand by delta
  416. 14:25neutral what you want the stock to do?
  417. 14:27When you when you place an options
  418. 14:28trade, what you want the stock to do?
  419. 14:30>> We want the stock to trade in a range.
  420. 14:32So, for example,
  421. 14:34>> Okay. So, let's say we have a stock
  422. 14:36that's trading at $100. We start here.
  423. 14:39And then we sell a put at $90 and we
  424. 14:42sell call at $110.
  425. 14:45So, we have 10% up and down range. As
  426. 14:48long as we stay in this range, the
  427. 14:50market can go up, down, or in circles.
  428. 14:53As long as it stays in the range,
  429. 14:55we get premium from both sides and we
  430. 14:57keep that premium.
  431. 15:00We sell call to someone, we sell put to
  432. 15:02someone.
  433. 15:03And we if we stay in the middle, we win.
  434. 15:06So, even if I start from $100, the price
  435. 15:09goes to 95, even though technically the
  436. 15:11stock is down, but I'm still winning
  437. 15:14because it is still above my 90 strike.
  438. 15:18>> Yeah. Yeah, makes full sense. I'm not
  439. 15:20going to ask any more questions. I'm cuz
  440. 15:21I think you you I'll I'll ask you
  441. 15:23questions later in the presentation. So,
  442. 15:24I'll let you go back and then we'll
  443. 15:26continue.
  444. 15:27>> So, I've been trading Delta neutral for
  445. 15:29several years now and at this point I've
  446. 15:31become like a very good expert in it.
  447. 15:34And my strategies are a very systematic.
  448. 15:37They're based on backtesting.
  449. 15:39And
  450. 15:41a lot of these strategies are mechanical
  451. 15:43and even automated.
  452. 15:45So, the way it works is let's say I find
  453. 15:47a strategy where I open a trade at a
  454. 15:50fixed day at a fixed time with a fixed
  455. 15:52structure.
  456. 15:54And based on the backtest for several
  457. 15:56last years, I know what the win rate is
  458. 15:58going to be, what the expectancy is
  459. 16:00going to be, and I can just execute that
  460. 16:02strategy every week.
  461. 16:04So, using strategies like these,
  462. 16:07uh my goal was to make $10,000 a month
  463. 16:09on a new account with $100,000.
  464. 16:12And now this account is up to 456k
  465. 16:15including unrealized gain.
  466. 16:18My initial goal was to just make $10,000
  467. 16:20a month.
  468. 16:21The most fascinating part is that
  469. 16:23now this account that I just started
  470. 16:25with 100,000 last year,
  471. 16:27it is making more than 50,000 in a
  472. 16:29month.
  473. 16:31If you see on Kinfo, my last one month
  474. 16:33realized gain is $97,000.
  475. 16:36And this month currently month to date
  476. 16:38is $70,000.
  477. 16:40So, it is just like crazy to me that you
  478. 16:43can make this kind of return with just
  479. 16:45just starting with 100,000. Now, if you
  480. 16:48have smaller account, you can start with
  481. 16:5010,000 also.
  482. 16:51But, it will need time and experience to
  483. 16:54get to a level where you are able to
  484. 16:57produce returns which are phenomenal.
  485. 17:00>> Yeah, it's it's it sounds quite
  486. 17:02interesting because I it's not re I
  487. 17:04mean, is there a lot of creative
  488. 17:06creative thinking in the backtest and
  489. 17:09finding formulas or is it just very
  490. 17:10process process driven and repeating
  491. 17:13repeating what the data says?
  492. 17:14>> It is based on data. So, a lot of the
  493. 17:17data is actually based on the option
  494. 17:19Greeks. So, once you understand the
  495. 17:22option Greeks, initially it might sound
  496. 17:24a little bit complex,
  497. 17:26but if you just spend some time to
  498. 17:27understand it,
  499. 17:29it will unlock a whole new world for
  500. 17:30you, which I I'm sure it's going to be
  501. 17:32life-changing for most people.
  502. 17:35>> And and the Greeks are
  503. 17:37the Greeks aren't some
  504. 17:38some color it's the No, it's I was going
  505. 17:41to say the Greeks aren't some coliseum
  506. 17:42in Rome Rome, but it's I think that's
  507. 17:45that's a different country, but the
  508. 17:46Greeks aren't too the Greeks aren't too
  509. 17:48confusing really. What what what are the
  510. 17:50Greeks for the people I don't don't
  511. 17:51know. It's it's
  512. 17:53alpha, delta, gamma, theta, and
  513. 17:57implied volatility.
  514. 17:59>> focus on the Let's focus on the two
  515. 18:01simplest Greeks for now, which most
  516. 18:04people can easily understand. And 80% of
  517. 18:07the time you just rely on these two
  518. 18:08Greeks.
  519. 18:09One is delta.
  520. 18:11A delta basically means
  521. 18:14a multiplier.
  522. 18:15Right? So, if I have a If I have a stock
  523. 18:18that's trading at $100,
  524. 18:20and I buy a call option,
  525. 18:22which is currently at 20 delta,
  526. 18:25that means it will have a 20x
  527. 18:27multiplier. For every $1 the stock is
  528. 18:30going to move,
  529. 18:31my option is going to go up by $100 by
  530. 18:34$20.
  531. 18:35>> Yeah.
  532. 18:36>> So, that means if I buy this call option
  533. 18:38for Let's say I pay $200 for it.
  534. 18:41And I buy that call option, the stock
  535. 18:43goes up by 5%. So, stock goes up by $5,
  536. 18:48that means my option can gain five
  537. 18:51about 5 into 20 is $100 in premium.
  538. 18:55>> Yeah.
  539. 18:55>> So, an option that I bought for $200
  540. 18:58can make 50% return if the stock goes up
  541. 19:015%.
  542. 19:02>> Yeah, makes sense.
  543. 19:04>> And now another way that this option
  544. 19:06represent is that if you as an option
  545. 19:09buyer, you are buying a 20 delta 20
  546. 19:12delta call
  547. 19:13the chances of you making profit in it
  548. 19:16is only 20%.
  549. 19:18>> And if right
  550. 19:20>> If I'm selling an option and I'm selling
  551. 19:22that 20 delta option to you the chances
  552. 19:25of for me to make profit in that is
  553. 19:27about 80%.
  554. 19:30>> Is that is that true when when you read
  555. 19:31it out or is it you read the delta as
  556. 19:330.2 on the screen don't you? Like that's
  557. 19:36that's normally how it shows up and that
  558. 19:38literally means 20% chance of this
  559. 19:40working does it? The
  560. 19:42the Greeks the the machine is is is
  561. 19:45suggesting that.
  562. 19:46>> Yes, so that means it has 20% chance of
  563. 19:49expiring in the money. That means it
  564. 19:51will make some profit
  565. 19:53in about 20% of the times.
  566. 19:57So as an option seller if you are
  567. 19:59selling 20 delta calls or 20 delta puts
  568. 20:02you are going to make profit most of the
  569. 20:04time.
  570. 20:05>> Interesting. And obviously if that delta
  571. 20:07changes by which how far out away from
  572. 20:11the the money the the puts are or the
  573. 20:13calls are that you're buying the the
  574. 20:14delta would
  575. 20:15>> Yeah, it can be it can be it starts from
  576. 20:18like at the money is $50.
  577. 20:21The further out of the money you go the
  578. 20:23lower delta it's going to be.
  579. 20:25There are some option sellers who even
  580. 20:26sell like five delta option. They will
  581. 20:29have 95% win rate.
  582. 20:31But it but there is also another side to
  583. 20:34it.
  584. 20:35In one of case where the market has like
  585. 20:37a parabolic run
  586. 20:39they can also lose more than what they
  587. 20:41are making in in a single loss. So their
  588. 20:43losses are going to be bigger but they
  589. 20:45will have a higher win rate. So you have
  590. 20:47to optimize for the balance
  591. 20:49where I have high win rate
  592. 20:52with an even risk reward. So I
  593. 20:54personally like trades where I can have
  594. 20:5670 to 80% win rate
  595. 20:58with an even risk reward. If I'm winning
  596. 21:00I'm making $100 if I'm losing I'm losing
  597. 21:03$100.
  598. 21:04That means as long as I win more than
  599. 21:0650% of the times, I can be profitable.
  600. 21:09So, in actual terms, my win rate is like
  601. 21:1270% to 80% varies month on month. Last 2
  602. 21:15months has been close to 100% and you
  603. 21:18can trade it in many different ways.
  604. 21:20There are a lot of
  605. 21:21you can put together two to four options
  606. 21:24in a spread and come up with a lot of
  607. 21:26different strategies where you can
  608. 21:28construct a very sophisticated trade
  609. 21:31which can give you a lot of edge.
  610. 21:34>> And do you know what do you know what I
  611. 21:35think is uh is cool from what I'm
  612. 21:37understanding of your strategy is most
  613. 21:40people cuz
  614. 21:41I've traded with a lot of small cap
  615. 21:42micro cap equities traders and um
  616. 21:45the main thing about the complaint about
  617. 21:47is markets are quiet, it's dead,
  618. 21:49summertime July August. But your
  619. 21:51strategy probably loves summertime
  620. 21:53because you you want nothing to happen.
  621. 21:55The less that happens is the better. Is
  622. 21:57it not?
  623. 21:59>> Yeah, absolutely. We actually love the
  624. 22:01choppy market. Now, most traders
  625. 22:03complain about losing money in the
  626. 22:05choppy market especially if you're
  627. 22:07buying option in the market is choppy,
  628. 22:09your option goes to zero.
  629. 22:11That's what option sellers love.
  630. 22:13We like to sell options in that choppy
  631. 22:16market. Now, most of the time market is
  632. 22:17choppy.
  633. 22:19So, we sell options in that choppy
  634. 22:21market and make premium from both sides
  635. 22:24and your options expire worthless, we
  636. 22:26make money.
  637. 22:28>> Yeah, so
  638. 22:29you don't you don't love the
  639. 22:31the AI boom and revolution and Sandisk
  640. 22:34and Nvidia. You're you're loving the
  641. 22:37the boring uh what supermarkets or
  642. 22:42consumer staples is it that kind of more
  643. 22:44boring more boring industries like
  644. 22:46Walmart?
  645. 22:48>> So, I invest into
  646. 22:51I invest into all types of companies. I
  647. 22:52may very bullish I'm very bullish on AI
  648. 22:55and tech and I have lot of investments
  649. 22:58in all the big tech companies, AI
  650. 23:00companies, semiconductor companies.
  651. 23:02Uh when it comes to selling options,
  652. 23:05I am agnostic to the stock. The
  653. 23:07fundamentals of the stock does not
  654. 23:09matters to me. The
  655. 23:11uh
  656. 23:12the technical I don't do a lot of
  657. 23:15technical analysis.
  658. 23:16I look at stocks which have like a
  659. 23:18predictable range.
  660. 23:20And I trade options in those range. Now,
  661. 23:22there are some uh some periods where you
  662. 23:26can expect higher volatility.
  663. 23:28And in those periods, I would just step
  664. 23:30out of the market. Yeah, it's like
  665. 23:32selling insurance. So, let's say um you
  666. 23:35want to if you're selling insurance,
  667. 23:37you want to sell insurance where you
  668. 23:39have low risk.
  669. 23:41If you know that there is a flood
  670. 23:43warning warning, are you going to sell
  671. 23:44insurance in a flood warning? I'm not
  672. 23:46going to. I'm going to step out of the
  673. 23:48way.
  674. 23:49Even if it means that I do not make any
  675. 23:51trade for a month, I'm going to be okay
  676. 23:53with that.
  677. 23:54Because it is better to not trade and
  678. 23:57not lose money
  679. 23:59than going in the market and risking
  680. 24:01taking unwanted risk and losing money.
  681. 24:04So, you have to
  682. 24:06pay some attention to the macro cycle,
  683. 24:08what's going on in the market, is there
  684. 24:10any war going on, is there any FOMC
  685. 24:13coming?
  686. 24:14So, just step out of those events and
  687. 24:16most of the time it works well.
  688. 24:18Another great thing Now, this is a
  689. 24:20screenshot from my broker.
  690. 24:22The best part about the strategy is that
  691. 24:24if you see, it is up like 300% in uh
  692. 24:27since I started.
  693. 24:29But there is very little drawdown. It is
  694. 24:31pretty much going straight up. Then
  695. 24:33there are periods of flat months where
  696. 24:35like I said, I stopped trading in some
  697. 24:37months. You see like this flat period,
  698. 24:39like this was Iran war situation, I was
  699. 24:41flat.
  700. 24:42Because why take unwanted risk?
  701. 24:45Uh
  702. 24:46so, my drawdown is in single-digit
  703. 24:48percent. Typically, traders who make
  704. 24:51this kind of returns
  705. 24:53will have very high drawdown. They will
  706. 24:54have 50-60% drawdown at times.
  707. 24:58Here I have almost no drawdown. So, it's
  708. 25:00very low stress strategy for me.
  709. 25:03And even this this during this period,
  710. 25:06there were multiple drawdowns in S&P
  711. 25:08ranging from 15 to 20%.
  712. 25:11We went through the tariff situation. We
  713. 25:13went through the Iran war. S&P had
  714. 25:15multiple big drawdowns. My account had
  715. 25:18almost no drawdown.
  716. 25:20>> Yeah. Yeah, I think you can't stress
  717. 25:22that enough. It's It's
  718. 25:23we literally
  719. 25:25So, like two 10 to 20% drops in in the
  720. 25:28queues and the spies for the tariffs and
  721. 25:31the war. Yeah, it's incredible that
  722. 25:32you've uh
  723. 25:33>> Right. Now Now, a lot of people will say
  724. 25:35that oh, if you are making 300% 200%
  725. 25:39return in a year,
  726. 25:40you are beating all the hedge funds. Uh
  727. 25:43you can be a trillionaire in few years.
  728. 25:46If you are compounding at 200%, you can
  729. 25:48be a trillionaire in few years.
  730. 25:50>> True.
  731. 25:50>> But, that's not possible
  732. 25:52because of liquidity.
  733. 25:54In a lot of these trades, there is not
  734. 25:56enough liquidity
  735. 25:58that I cannot go out and put a billion
  736. 26:00dollar trade in a strategy like this.
  737. 26:03So, I can trade a few million dollars
  738. 26:05with a strategy like this,
  739. 26:07but I do not I cannot trade billions of
  740. 26:09dollars in a strategy like this and
  741. 26:11still generate same kind of returns
  742. 26:13because then you become the biggest
  743. 26:15position in the market and market makers
  744. 26:17will hunt you down.
  745. 26:20And
  746. 26:21so,
  747. 26:22there is liquidity concern where which
  748. 26:25is why you cannot scale it infinitely,
  749. 26:28but I'm happy to make a few million
  750. 26:29dollars. I'm not even thinking of that
  751. 26:31level.
  752. 26:32Uh
  753. 26:33and the other thing is the mindset and
  754. 26:35psychology.
  755. 26:36As my account size uh sizes are growing,
  756. 26:40I do not feel comfortable risking large
  757. 26:42amounts of money
  758. 26:44because capital preservation is the
  759. 26:46priority for me now.
  760. 26:47When you're starting with let's say
  761. 26:49$10,000, your goal is to get to
  762. 26:50$100,000.
  763. 26:52When you have made millions of dollars,
  764. 26:54you want to protect those.
  765. 26:56So, instead of which is why I was like,
  766. 26:58okay, I will start a new account with
  767. 27:00100k because I can afford to lose 100k.
  768. 27:03It If it goes to zero, it's not going to
  769. 27:06affect me.
  770. 27:07But, using that risk capital, I have
  771. 27:09swing I can take a shot at making it
  772. 27:1110x.
  773. 27:13>> Yeah.
  774. 27:14Fair. Makes sense. And And it's it's
  775. 27:16great it's great learnings and examples
  776. 27:18for newer traders who need a
  777. 27:20uh amplify their accounts and and turn
  778. 27:221,000 into a couple.
  779. 27:24>> Yeah, so anyone who wants to do trading,
  780. 27:26what I would recommend is like allocate
  781. 27:28a certain risk capital which you are
  782. 27:30okay if it if you lose it.
  783. 27:33That's way That way you can protect your
  784. 27:35bigger capital.
  785. 27:37But, and risk small amount to get to a
  786. 27:39point where you can be consistently
  787. 27:40profitable.
  788. 27:42So, uh let's get into the strategy. So,
  789. 27:44my first strategy is called delta
  790. 27:46neutral strategy. Now, this is an
  791. 27:48umbrella term for a lot of other
  792. 27:50strategies.
  793. 27:52Strategies like strangle and iron
  794. 27:54condor.
  795. 27:56Uh the main the way this strategy works
  796. 27:58is
  797. 27:59uh let's say you are an option buyer.
  798. 28:02You think the stock is going to go up,
  799. 28:04you buy call.
  800. 28:05If you think the stock is going to go
  801. 28:06down, you buy a put.
  802. 28:08What I think is I don't care where the
  803. 28:11stock is going. I'm going to look at the
  804. 28:13data.
  805. 28:14Let's say a stock is trading at $100.
  806. 28:17And my data says that in a given time
  807. 28:20period, let's say the time period is 1
  808. 28:22month,
  809. 28:23I think that this stock is going to
  810. 28:24trade between 10% up or down range.
  811. 28:28Based on the data, I can tell that uh in
  812. 28:31a month, the trading range for this
  813. 28:32stock is about less than 10%. Maybe it's
  814. 28:345 to 7%. So, I'm going to add some
  815. 28:37buffer to it.
  816. 28:38And I'm going to sell a put which is 10%
  817. 28:41down from the current price. And I'm
  818. 28:44going to sell a call which is 10% above
  819. 28:46the current price.
  820. 28:48And I'm going to collect premium from
  821. 28:49both side. So, the put buyer is going to
  822. 28:51pay me credit. The call buyer is going
  823. 28:54to pay me.
  824. 28:55As long as the stock trades in this
  825. 28:57in this range,
  826. 28:59both of these expire worthless and I get
  827. 29:01to keep that profit.
  828. 29:05>> Can I ask what happens if
  829. 29:08it's very rare to happen, but what
  830. 29:10happens if
  831. 29:12um I don't know, it's British British
  832. 29:14Airways. Yeah, yeah, it's a safe uh
  833. 29:17American Airlines, something like that.
  834. 29:19It's a safe type of player that you play
  835. 29:21and one of the planes crashes or they
  836. 29:23found out that every single broken and
  837. 29:25it's a complete crisis and and the stock
  838. 29:26goes from 100 to three
  839. 29:29overnight. Is will that be a big loss?
  840. 29:32So, big loss as well.
  841. 29:35>> So, there are two ways to do this.
  842. 29:38One is defined risk and one is undefined
  843. 29:41risk. So, let me show you with an
  844. 29:43example.
  845. 29:44So, I use this tool called Option Strat
  846. 29:46to model my trades. Uh so, the simplest
  847. 29:50strategy is called strangle. So, let's
  848. 29:52say I want to make a trade on Meta. Meta
  849. 29:55has been through with the earnings.
  850. 29:56After earnings, there is a period of
  851. 29:58choppy period when the market tries to
  852. 30:00discover what what's next.
  853. 30:02So, I think I think that next 1 month
  854. 30:05can be like a calm period for Meta.
  855. 30:07The stock is trading at 605.
  856. 30:10I can go sell a put at 505 strike and I
  857. 30:14will get $380 $380 credit from it.
  858. 30:17And I can sell a call at 650 strike.
  859. 30:21And I will get $738 credit. So, total
  860. 30:24I'm getting like close to
  861. 30:26$1,120.
  862. 30:28And now, this gives me a range where the
  863. 30:30stock can go up or down
  864. 30:34in between this range, right? So, the
  865. 30:36price starts here or the next 1 month,
  866. 30:38the stock can go up or down like this.
  867. 30:40As long as it stays in this range,
  868. 30:44I get to keep this profit.
  869. 30:46And getting into this trade, you will
  870. 30:48know exactly what your chance of profit
  871. 30:51is.
  872. 30:52So, before I open the trade, it shows
  873. 30:54that I have 75% chance of winning this
  874. 30:56trade.
  875. 30:57And when I lose,
  876. 30:59I can use a stop loss. If the price goes
  877. 31:02out of this range, I can exit.
  878. 31:05>> Uh okay.
  879. 31:06So, it say it can
  880. 31:07>> of the times I'm winning and winning.
  881. 31:09And if it starts to go out of this
  882. 31:11range, at that point I can exit. My loss
  883. 31:13is going to be maybe a few hundred
  884. 31:15dollars.
  885. 31:16But there is another way to do this.
  886. 31:18Now, this kind of strategy you can say
  887. 31:20it's You can see here it says max loss
  888. 31:21infinite.
  889. 31:23If let's say there is a big news
  890. 31:25overnight, Meta stocks goes up or down
  891. 31:2720%. At that point, I can lose more than
  892. 31:30this $1,100.
  893. 31:33>> Yeah.
  894. 31:33>> So, in that case, what I like to do is
  895. 31:36instead, this is called selling naked
  896. 31:38strangle.
  897. 31:39So, I typically don't sell naked
  898. 31:40strangle like this because it has
  899. 31:42infinite risk.
  900. 31:44So, I like to hedge it by buying outside
  901. 31:47wings.
  902. 31:48So, let's say if I'm selling 550 put,
  903. 31:51I can buy another put, which can be 10
  904. 31:55points out.
  905. 31:56>> Yeah.
  906. 31:56>> And I can buy a call,
  907. 31:59which can also be 10 to 20 points out.
  908. 32:01Now, in this trade, my credit goes from
  909. 32:05receiving about $1,100,
  910. 32:08it goes to $269.
  911. 32:10But now my max loss is capped at 731.
  912. 32:14Now, no matter what happens,
  913. 32:16I'm not going to lose more than $731.
  914. 32:18>> Is it not just better to have the the
  915. 32:21stop in cuz with with options, it's can
  916. 32:23be tricky and they say don't use stops
  917. 32:25because you can get tugged out too easy.
  918. 32:27Is it Is that the reason why or
  919. 32:29cuz you don't you pay an extra premium
  920. 32:30unnecessarily, no?
  921. 32:33>> Yeah, so but
  922. 32:35if you are selling a strangle,
  923. 32:37it is not recommended for most people
  924. 32:40because you can have like a big black
  925. 32:43swan risk. What if there is like a
  926. 32:45recession or black swan risk overnight
  927. 32:47and the market drops 10%? What if there
  928. 32:50is something like COVID?
  929. 32:51So, you don't want to get wiped out on
  930. 32:54on those days.
  931. 32:56>> Yeah, cuz I I was thinking the options
  932. 32:58don't trade after hours, so you'll be
  933. 32:59okay. But that doesn't mean the world
  934. 33:00stops. Anything happens overnight and
  935. 33:02the stocks going to open up 20 30% out.
  936. 33:05So, you can completely protect yourself.
  937. 33:07This is what I love about options. You
  938. 33:09know your exact risk, your exact reward,
  939. 33:11and the exact probability of the
  940. 33:13occurrence.
  941. 33:14And you You must You must
  942. 33:16You must go to bed sleeping like a baby.
  943. 33:18You must sleep very well at night
  944. 33:20because everything's already worked out.
  945. 33:24>> Yeah, absolutely because I know that my
  946. 33:26probabilities are going to work out. And
  947. 33:29plus I I spend some additional time back
  948. 33:31testing to find these opportunities.
  949. 33:34Now, for example, let's say you opened a
  950. 33:36trade like this last week. Last week
  951. 33:38when Meta was at 708. At that point,
  952. 33:41this same option spread was trading for
  953. 33:43332.
  954. 33:45And now the price is doing thing. It's
  955. 33:47going up and down, but you see the above
  956. 33:49line
  957. 33:50is the trade. The bottom line is the
  958. 33:52stock price going up and down. This line
  959. 33:55is the trade price.
  960. 33:56There is some volatility, but you see
  961. 33:58that it's mostly going up to the right.
  962. 34:01>> Yeah.
  963. 34:01>> And as long as the price stays in this
  964. 34:04range,
  965. 34:05the premium is going to decay and we
  966. 34:07make profit.
  967. 34:09And you can do these trades for any
  968. 34:11duration. You can do it for um
  969. 34:14one-day duration. You can do it for zero
  970. 34:16DTD. You can do weekly. You can do
  971. 34:18monthly. In fact, I also do some zero
  972. 34:21DTD trades where I have asymmetric risk
  973. 34:24reward. I can even structure these
  974. 34:26trades that I want to risk $1,000, but I
  975. 34:29want my reward to be $2,000.
  976. 34:32All you have to do is play around with
  977. 34:33the strikes and probability
  978. 34:36and whatever you are comfortable with,
  979. 34:38you can go with that kind of setup.
  980. 34:40>> And then this is delta neutral because
  981. 34:42you're neutralizing the delta basically
  982. 34:43with the
  983. 34:44both sides. Both sides the call and the
  984. 34:46option.
  985. 34:47>> Yeah. And then there is another if you
  986. 34:51Now some people are like I I want a
  987. 34:53better risk reward.
  988. 34:55So either you can have a high win rate
  989. 34:58or you can have a high better risk
  990. 35:00reward.
  991. 35:01I like a balance where like in a trade
  992. 35:04like this typically when I start to lose
  993. 35:07there are also some adjustment
  994. 35:08strategies that I can use where in most
  995. 35:11cases my max loss is not going to be
  996. 35:13like this.
  997. 35:14So in a winning trade let's say I win
  998. 35:16$250 in a losing trade maybe I lose $300
  999. 35:19but I'm winning 70 to 80%. But if you
  1000. 35:22want to structure it in a another way,
  1001. 35:24there is another strategy called iron
  1002. 35:26fly.
  1003. 35:27Let's try this on something like Nvidia.
  1004. 35:30>> Yeah.
  1005. 35:31>> Another great way to sell is like
  1006. 35:33Nvidia's earnings is tonight, right?
  1007. 35:36People don't know if the stock is going
  1008. 35:38up. Some people are saying it's going to
  1009. 35:39go up. Some people say it's going to do
  1010. 35:41go down.
  1011. 35:42I don't even care.
  1012. 35:44I'm going to do this strategy with with
  1013. 35:47on a back test it has more than a 100%
  1014. 35:50win rate over the last 2 years.
  1015. 35:52And I'm going to do this tonight. What
  1016. 35:54I'm going to do is
  1017. 35:56I'm going to sell a call and put at 225
  1018. 35:59strike which is the current price.
  1019. 36:02And I'm going to buy 20 point outside
  1020. 36:05wing as a hedge.
  1021. 36:08Right so I'm going to sell 225
  1022. 36:12sell 225, buy 205 put and 245 put for
  1023. 36:17protection. This strategy is called iron
  1024. 36:18fly.
  1025. 36:19Now
  1026. 36:21it has 51% chance of profit.
  1027. 36:25And here the max loss is 894.
  1028. 36:30And the credit you are receiving is
  1029. 36:31$1,100.
  1030. 36:33So, now if you tell me, if we do a coin
  1031. 36:35flip where you have 51% chance of
  1032. 36:37winning,
  1033. 36:38and if you lose,
  1034. 36:40you lose $900.
  1035. 36:42If you win, you win $1,100.
  1036. 36:45Is that a good strategy?
  1037. 36:47The You see the edge in the maths. I
  1038. 36:50don't even have to look at the chart to
  1039. 36:52make this trade.
  1040. 36:54I have a mathematical edge in this
  1041. 36:55trade.
  1042. 36:57>> Yeah, it's a it's very different to to
  1043. 37:01to how the majority of retail traders
  1044. 37:03trade. This is not how retail trades.
  1045. 37:05This sounds a bit more like how hedge
  1046. 37:07funds probably trade.
  1047. 37:09>> Yeah, but
  1048. 37:10yeah, a lot of funds trade like this.
  1049. 37:13And And in this case, my strategy is
  1050. 37:15going to be simple.
  1051. 37:17I'm going to open this trade 15 minutes
  1052. 37:19before market close.
  1053. 37:21And tomorrow in the morning, uh, at
  1054. 37:24whatever price the market opens,
  1055. 37:26the first thing I'm going to do is take
  1056. 37:28profits. In the first 5 to 10 minutes,
  1057. 37:30I'm going to take profit, and I'll be
  1058. 37:32out of this trade.
  1059. 37:34May I may not make the full $1,100
  1060. 37:36profit. Maybe my profit in the morning
  1061. 37:38is going to be somewhere close to $400,
  1062. 37:41depending on where the price opens. So,
  1063. 37:44whatever the profit is, I'm going to
  1064. 37:45take it in the first 5 minutes.
  1065. 37:48If I make 50% return in an overnight
  1066. 37:50trade with just 5 minutes of work, I'm
  1067. 37:53thrilled with that.
  1068. 37:54>> Yeah, and so what you need to what you
  1069. 37:55need what you need Nvidia to sit for
  1070. 37:57this to for this to work?
  1071. 37:59>> So, for this to make profit, Nvidia
  1072. 38:01needs to be in this range.
  1073. 38:04So, between 214 to 236.
  1074. 38:08>> Uh, it just needs to sit within that 5
  1075. 38:105% range tomorrow morning by the by
  1076. 38:129:30.
  1077. 38:14>> Yes. So, the market makers are expecting
  1078. 38:17a 5% movement.
  1079. 38:20But historically, Nvidia moves less than
  1080. 38:235% after earnings.
  1081. 38:25So, over the last year, I've been
  1082. 38:26trading this kind of strategy for every
  1083. 38:29every earnings. Have I have 100% win
  1084. 38:31rate on this.
  1085. 38:33>> How did you get into the backtesting
  1086. 38:35element of the research? Is this like
  1087. 38:37Python or
  1088. 38:38AI?
  1089. 38:39>> So, I actually
  1090. 38:40I actually vibe coded my own backtesting
  1091. 38:43engine
  1092. 38:44uh
  1093. 38:45using options data. Uh let me show it to
  1094. 38:47you. So, this is my backtest for Nvidia
  1095. 38:51uh over the last 1 year. I tested a lot
  1096. 38:54of different strategies. If I were to do
  1097. 38:56an iron
  1098. 38:58So, I tested multiple strategies, iron
  1099. 39:01fly and iron condor, targeting different
  1100. 39:03strike prices, different wings.
  1101. 39:06And almost all the combination won four
  1102. 39:08out of four times over the last 1 year.
  1103. 39:12And they each have their average profit.
  1104. 39:15They each have their
  1105. 39:17uh return.
  1106. 39:18So, like for example, if I were to sell
  1107. 39:21an iron fly with 10-point width uh width
  1108. 39:24wings,
  1109. 39:25it makes 43% return on average in just
  1110. 39:28an overnight trade. If I go with
  1111. 39:3020-point wide, it makes 28% return.
  1112. 39:33And if you traded this every time for
  1113. 39:36the last 1 year,
  1114. 39:38with just one contract, total profit
  1115. 39:40would be $1,100.
  1116. 39:42And in this backtest, I'm just opening a
  1117. 39:44trade 15 minutes before market open,
  1118. 39:46taking profit uh in the first 10 minutes
  1119. 39:49at market open.
  1120. 39:51>> Uh it's it's very kind of you to go into
  1121. 39:53this detail and and reveal this kind of
  1122. 39:56uh work that that you're doing. It's
  1123. 39:57very nice of you. And it just shows you
  1124. 39:59like
  1125. 40:00with especially with artificial
  1126. 40:03intelligence these days, you don't need
  1127. 40:05to be able to code. You can You can use
  1128. 40:08platforms and programs to build your own
  1129. 40:10system. It just I mean, I don't know if
  1130. 40:12you agree, Ravish. I do the same thing
  1131. 40:13as you would. It just takes a curious
  1132. 40:15mind. It just takes a little bit of
  1133. 40:17curiosity and and answering some
  1134. 40:19questions to
  1135. 40:21to start getting to this point now.
  1136. 40:24>> Yeah, absolutely. There are also you
  1137. 40:26have to basically uh
  1138. 40:29once you understand the Greeks, it like
  1139. 40:32I said, it is going to open a whole new
  1140. 40:33world. Because then you start to think
  1141. 40:36about things like, "Hey, I can do this."
  1142. 40:38Like when I first learned about data
  1143. 40:40neutral delta neutral,
  1144. 40:42I was obsessed. I was like, "How is that
  1145. 40:44even possible?"
  1146. 40:45That you can make profit without
  1147. 40:48predicting a direction. My mind was
  1148. 40:50blown.
  1149. 40:53>> I think
  1150. 40:54>> And now with AI now with AI earlier I
  1151. 40:57So, I have a technical background.
  1152. 40:59I used to code, do
  1153. 41:01analyze data manually.
  1154. 41:03Now I just you I know I can just write
  1155. 41:05code this thing. I did this in few
  1156. 41:07minutes without having to code my thing.
  1157. 41:10And I can tell AI, "Hey, use this API,
  1158. 41:12get this data
  1159. 41:14and back test these 10 different
  1160. 41:16strategies." And it tested like these
  1161. 41:18seven strategies and all of them are
  1162. 41:21winning.
  1163. 41:21And now I just have to choose, "Okay,
  1164. 41:23which one do I want to go with?"
  1165. 41:25>> I mean, it's just insane how much AI's
  1166. 41:28enabling average people to
  1167. 41:31to have exponential growth, eh? I mean,
  1168. 41:33but the thing is I don't like you've got
  1169. 41:34to be racing with this AI technology
  1170. 41:36because everyone's going to be doing it.
  1171. 41:37So, you've got to be the the one best at
  1172. 41:40it.
  1173. 41:41>> Yeah, I mean, with AI um a lot of people
  1174. 41:44do is go to AI and tell tell it
  1175. 41:46basically, "Hey, dear AI, make me a
  1176. 41:49million dollar strategy. Make no
  1177. 41:50mistake."
  1178. 41:52And that's not how it works.
  1179. 41:54You basically have to give it your core
  1180. 41:57idea and then it can improvise on it.
  1181. 42:00And then it can test the data for you to
  1182. 42:03let you know that, "Hey, it works."
  1183. 42:06Like for example, there is another
  1184. 42:08strategy which is a simple call buying
  1185. 42:10strategy.
  1186. 42:12Uh I also have a video on my channel
  1187. 42:14about it. That strategy has a more than
  1188. 42:1590% win rate.
  1189. 42:17And on that video, you'll see hundreds
  1190. 42:19of comments from people making a lot of
  1191. 42:20money with that strategy.
  1192. 42:22I use AI to test that data. What I did
  1193. 42:25was I downloaded CSV data for um
  1194. 42:29for QQQ stock.
  1195. 42:32And I gave it to ChatGPT. I was like,
  1196. 42:33"Analyze this data. I want to know that
  1197. 42:35if I enter this
  1198. 42:37enter buy this stock
  1199. 42:40when the market drops 1%
  1200. 42:42in the next 3 months, what is the
  1201. 42:44average performance?"
  1202. 42:46And it gave me data that 90% of the time
  1203. 42:49if you buy when the market drops by 1%
  1204. 42:52in the next 6 months, it goes up by 10%.
  1205. 42:55It does not have to stay up there, but
  1206. 42:57it goes and touches 10% level in the
  1207. 43:00next 6 months.
  1208. 43:02And then I created a simple call buying
  1209. 43:04strategy where you buy a leap call with
  1210. 43:061 year expiration
  1211. 43:08and 50% profit target. That is working
  1212. 43:10like amazing.
  1213. 43:11>> That's totally crack-ass. That's totally
  1214. 43:13crazy. I mean, the thing is though like
  1215. 43:15it's so obvious. It's so obvious, but
  1216. 43:17people aren't doing it.
  1217. 43:19Like it's so obvious and it's so easy,
  1218. 43:20but I
  1219. 43:21The thing is right, so I have a question
  1220. 43:22for you. Is everyone going to be
  1221. 43:23millionaires in the future because of
  1222. 43:24AI? Like but can any trader become a
  1223. 43:27millionaire through AI in the next 5
  1224. 43:29years, 6 years? What's your thoughts?
  1225. 43:31>> I think anyone can become a millionaire
  1226. 43:34if they are disciplined to learn and
  1227. 43:37practice and manage the risk. Now,
  1228. 43:39technically if you look at it
  1229. 43:41there are a lot of people in the market.
  1230. 43:43Some are billionaires. There are I
  1231. 43:45recently went to Berkshire Hath Hathaway
  1232. 43:47meeting in Omaha.
  1233. 43:49Like I was dumbfounded that Warren Buff-
  1234. 43:51We here we are talking about
  1235. 43:52millionaires. Warren Buffett has built a
  1236. 43:54trillion-dollar
  1237. 43:56empire.
  1238. 43:57Because he just gave it enough time and
  1239. 43:59he was disciplined to keep it going.
  1240. 44:03And there are a lot of billionaires
  1241. 44:05there.
  1242. 44:05And all of them are running like
  1243. 44:07multi-billion dollar hedge funds, making
  1244. 44:09billions of dollars.
  1245. 44:11The difference between us and them is
  1246. 44:13the skill and discipline.
  1247. 44:15They have more experience, they have
  1248. 44:17more skill, they have more discipline.
  1249. 44:19So, if you can practice these three
  1250. 44:21things,
  1251. 44:22there is unlimited money in the market.
  1252. 44:24You can make a lot of money. I think
  1253. 44:26like even when we are thinking about
  1254. 44:27millionaire,
  1255. 44:28we are thinking small. The opportunity
  1256. 44:31is much bigger.
  1257. 44:32>> I think I feel inspired. I didn't expect
  1258. 44:33that.
  1259. 44:35I feel inspired by what's possible and
  1260. 44:36it
  1261. 44:37it's so it's so true.
  1262. 44:40>> Yeah, I think going to Maha kind of like
  1263. 44:42changed my perspective. Over there, I
  1264. 44:44went to a private conference, which was
  1265. 44:47invite-only. There were a lot of hedge
  1266. 44:50fund managers there. Like Bill Ackman
  1267. 44:52was there, Monish Pabrai was there, uh
  1268. 44:55Guy Spier, a lot of uh big uh hedge fund
  1269. 44:58managers that you hear about like
  1270. 45:00operating at 100 million or
  1271. 45:01multi-billion dollar level.
  1272. 45:03They were in that room where there were
  1273. 45:05like only 100 or so people.
  1274. 45:07And uh going there kind of changed my
  1275. 45:09perspective that there are levels to
  1276. 45:11this game. Right now, we are thinking
  1277. 45:13very small.
  1278. 45:16>> But uh I mean, it's true. These guys
  1279. 45:18like I was reading um I'll let you go
  1280. 45:20back to the the other processes shortly.
  1281. 45:21But I was I was reading a book by uh Ray
  1282. 45:23Dalio. I don't know if you'll know. Ray
  1283. 45:25Dalio is the he he's the CEO was the
  1284. 45:28CEO. He's retired now of uh Bridgewater
  1285. 45:31Capital.
  1286. 45:32So, he's one of the the top hedge funds.
  1287. 45:34And he He's got some books on debt
  1288. 45:36cycles. But he he's made billions and
  1289. 45:37billions and billions having one of the
  1290. 45:38top hedge funds in the world at one
  1291. 45:39point. And what's true what one of the
  1292. 45:42first lines in the book that he said was
  1293. 45:43is I'm not I'm not smart at all. I'm not
  1294. 45:45smart at all.
  1295. 45:47Uh
  1296. 45:48I've made He said I made a lot of money
  1297. 45:49by knowing what to do by
  1298. 45:53uh not by not knowing the majority of
  1299. 45:54things and just being able to work
  1300. 45:56within the constraints of of what I
  1301. 45:57know.
  1302. 45:58And what he did is lot a lot of what
  1303. 46:00you're doing and what I do now as well
  1304. 46:01is he says me memory's terrible. I
  1305. 46:03forget everything all the time. The
  1306. 46:04multi-billionaire hedge fund guy says
  1307. 46:06"My memory's terrible. Can't remember
  1308. 46:07things." So, he just works with a system
  1309. 46:09and it's that process, the repetition,
  1310. 46:12working with a system,
  1311. 46:14and he's reached multi-multi-billions.
  1312. 46:18Just persistence.
  1313. 46:19>> think once you Once you find Once you
  1314. 46:22find an edge, once you find a system
  1315. 46:24that works for you,
  1316. 46:26then you just need to focus on it and
  1317. 46:27keep it on repeat until it starts to uh
  1318. 46:30it stops working. Eventually, like no
  1319. 46:32strategy is going to have an edge
  1320. 46:34forever. Some people do this mistake in
  1321. 46:36backtesting
  1322. 46:37um that they do a backtest for 10 years,
  1323. 46:4020 years.
  1324. 46:41Uh I think that is not wise because a
  1325. 46:45strategy that worked 20 years ago might
  1326. 46:47not be relevant today.
  1327. 46:49It was a completely different market 20
  1328. 46:51years ago. Today, we are in a very
  1329. 46:52different market.
  1330. 46:54So,
  1331. 46:55you need to have a recency bias. Yes, I
  1332. 46:57would like a strategy which is
  1333. 46:58battle-tested for 10 years or more.
  1334. 47:01But, what I want to know is is it
  1335. 47:02working now? Is it working in the last 1
  1336. 47:05or 2 years?
  1337. 47:06So, I will have a recency bias for it,
  1338. 47:08which is why
  1339. 47:09I'm backtesting this strategy for the
  1340. 47:11last 2 years
  1341. 47:13because uh like 5 years ago Nvidia was a
  1342. 47:15different company.
  1343. 47:17Right? So, you need to have a recency
  1344. 47:19bias.
  1345. 47:20And uh you can just then use this data
  1346. 47:24to do it. Now, I know that okay,
  1347. 47:26I have done this strategy enough of the
  1348. 47:28times for on a lot of different stocks.
  1349. 47:31It's not going to work on every stock,
  1350. 47:33but I know all the stocks on which it is
  1351. 47:34going to work.
  1352. 47:36Now, I can do that every quarter.
  1353. 47:40>> But, yeah, but at the same time, it's so
  1354. 47:42important to monitor your data, monitor
  1355. 47:44the the results, the probabilities to
  1356. 47:46make sure that something a trend isn't
  1357. 47:48changing.
  1358. 47:49Um
  1359. 47:50It but it's it's really interesting
  1360. 47:52because the market has a has evolved a
  1361. 47:54lot. And when you're talking about no
  1362. 47:56point checking back 20 years.
  1363. 47:57Most people who invest just I dust color
  1364. 48:00dust cost dollar average. It's like the
  1365. 48:03strategy that everyone does the cost
  1366. 48:04dollar average. But I was thinking I was
  1367. 48:06looking at some charts in the 1930s
  1368. 48:07after the Great Depression. If you
  1369. 48:09dollar cost average in the 1930s, you
  1370. 48:11you would have ended up losing 90% of
  1371. 48:14your money.
  1372. 48:15But then but then also in the in the
  1373. 48:171930s the market would go up 20% in a
  1374. 48:18month. It would have a 20% increase in a
  1375. 48:21single month. It was it was much more
  1376. 48:22volatile. We don't get those moves as
  1377. 48:24much now.
  1378. 48:25>> So we we just saw a move over the last
  1379. 48:28one month where it was close enough to
  1380. 48:30that.
  1381. 48:31>> Uh the Q the Q an index I mean it the Qs
  1382. 48:34>> went up like the Qs went up like 15% in
  1383. 48:37in a month.
  1384. 48:38>> Oh there you go. So maybe maybe things
  1385. 48:40can crash maybe things can crash to 90%
  1386. 48:43on the next crisis. Who knows?
  1387. 48:45But but uh now you're right. The Qs the
  1388. 48:47Qs after the um
  1389. 48:51after the Iran threat. Are you talking
  1390. 48:53about the Iran war threat? It dropped in
  1391. 48:55and with the whole of the AI revolution
  1392. 48:57the Qs have gone like 18%. That's AI
  1393. 48:59though it owns half of the Nasdaq like
  1394. 49:01it doesn't it? It's it's weird it's half
  1395. 49:03of Nasdaq.
  1396. 49:04>> When chat GPT came
  1397. 49:07I bought a leverage ETF
  1398. 49:09called TECL
  1399. 49:11at $20.
  1400. 49:13It's a 3x leverage technology ETF.
  1401. 49:15At that point I was like I do not know
  1402. 49:17which companies are going to be winner.
  1403. 49:20But I think
  1404. 49:21this AI revolution is going to be the
  1405. 49:23biggest revolution in tech we have seen
  1406. 49:26in our lifetime.
  1407. 49:26>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
  1408. 49:28>> So I was like okay I'm going to put
  1409. 49:29money in this leverage ETF 100k
  1410. 49:31invested. I'm willing to lose.
  1411. 49:35That is now close to a million dollars
  1412. 49:36now.
  1413. 49:37That stock that is now at $200.
  1414. 49:42In just like three three four years.
  1415. 49:45>> Like that's such an intelligent thing to
  1416. 49:47do.
  1417. 49:48>> So if you are
  1418. 49:50if you if you put effort in your skill
  1419. 49:53and you have discipline
  1420. 49:55then then and you also need to have
  1421. 49:57risk-taking ability.
  1422. 49:59Now, people say that putting money in
  1423. 50:01S&P safe.
  1424. 50:03Like I showed you my account, my
  1425. 50:05drawdown is lower than S&P.
  1426. 50:09So, if you have lower drawdown than S&P
  1427. 50:11and your returns are like exponentially
  1428. 50:13higher
  1429. 50:14your risk-adjusted returns are through
  1430. 50:16the roof.
  1431. 50:17>> Well, I think what you did with ChatGPT
  1432. 50:20coming out and putting the 100K in the
  1433. 50:22leveraged DTF was a
  1434. 50:25it's an incredibly well-timed smart
  1435. 50:27move. I mean, because it
  1436. 50:29we knew when we saw ChatGPT, it was like
  1437. 50:31nothing we'd ever seen in the world
  1438. 50:33before. We didn't know how how it would
  1439. 50:35advance or how fast, but we I I think
  1440. 50:37when ChatGPT came out, we knew the world
  1441. 50:40had changed forever and it was a matter
  1442. 50:41of time.
  1443. 50:43So,
  1444. 50:44it's interesting. But, do you want to go
  1445. 50:45back to your to the to the second
  1446. 50:47strategy? I keep throwing you off the
  1447. 50:49the PowerPoint, but it's it's
  1448. 50:50interesting to talk to you, so.
  1449. 50:52>> Yeah, let's go to the second strategy.
  1450. 50:54So, now you're going to construct this
  1451. 50:57strategy in a lot of different option
  1452. 50:58structure. In the other strategy that I
  1453. 51:01really like, which I think has a better
  1454. 51:03risk-reward
  1455. 51:05is I call it the theta machine.
  1456. 51:08It's a time spread strategy.
  1457. 51:10In a time spread strategy, what we are
  1458. 51:12going to do is
  1459. 51:14now think let me give you an analogy of
  1460. 51:16like an Airbnb business.
  1461. 51:19Think about this. I rent out an
  1462. 51:20apartment. I'm paying $5,000 a month
  1463. 51:23rent for it. And then I go list it on
  1464. 51:26Airbnb for $500 a night. Maybe I have I
  1465. 51:30sell 20 nights in a month. So, and I
  1466. 51:33have some operational cost. So,
  1467. 51:35basically I'm spending like $7,000 on
  1468. 51:37this apartment all in and I'm pulling in
  1469. 51:40$10,000 and I make $3,000 profit.
  1470. 51:44I do not own the property. I do not have
  1471. 51:46any significant investment in it. The
  1472. 51:48only thing I have is a lease.
  1473. 51:50Right? And I can earn a monthly income
  1474. 51:53from it.
  1475. 51:54We can do the same thing with options.
  1476. 51:56Technically, if you wanted to do that
  1477. 51:58with Airbnb, it's not profitable in
  1478. 51:59today's time.
  1479. 52:01But it is very lucrative and very
  1480. 52:03profitable with options.
  1481. 52:06So, what I'm going to do is
  1482. 52:09uh
  1483. 52:10So, there are a couple different types
  1484. 52:12of strategies. One is calendar spread
  1485. 52:14and one is diagonal spread.
  1486. 52:16So, I really love calendar spreads. This
  1487. 52:18is one of my best performing strategy.
  1488. 52:21So, let's say
  1489. 52:22I think S&P right now is trading at
  1490. 52:25$740.
  1491. 52:27I think over the next
  1492. 52:29um
  1493. 52:29few weeks it can go higher.
  1494. 52:31Let's say I think that in the next 3
  1495. 52:34weeks
  1496. 52:35it can go higher. So, I'm going to go
  1497. 52:37with
  1498. 52:37Let's do it on Qs.
  1499. 52:40So, okay, let's try try it on Qs. So, I
  1500. 52:43think in the next 3 weeks Qs can go a
  1501. 52:45little higher. I don't know how much
  1502. 52:48higher,
  1503. 52:49but I know maybe it is going to be
  1504. 52:50higher than today.
  1505. 52:52So, that means my time period is going
  1506. 52:54to be
  1507. 52:55I'm going to
  1508. 52:57buy an option for 18 June and sell an
  1509. 53:00option for 12 June.
  1510. 53:02So, the way it works is
  1511. 53:04we are going to buy a longer term option
  1512. 53:07and we are going to sell a shorter term
  1513. 53:09option against it. The term structure
  1514. 53:11can vary depending on your trade
  1515. 53:13outlook.
  1516. 53:15So, the way it works is
  1517. 53:17when you have buy an option, you are
  1518. 53:19paying daily theta on it. Think of it
  1519. 53:21like a daily rent.
  1520. 53:23And when you sell an option, you are
  1521. 53:24earning that daily rent on it.
  1522. 53:26Now, theta is not linear. The way it
  1523. 53:29works is that options which are expiring
  1524. 53:32in near term
  1525. 53:34are going to have higher theta decay
  1526. 53:36versus options which are expiring in
  1527. 53:38longer term.
  1528. 53:39So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to
  1529. 53:42sell a short-term option which is
  1530. 53:44represented here in the red line.
  1531. 53:47>> Yeah.
  1532. 53:48>> And then I'm going to buy a long-term
  1533. 53:49option which is represented in green
  1534. 53:52line.
  1535. 53:52Now the theta decay on the short-term
  1536. 53:54option is going to be fast.
  1537. 53:57And the theta decay on long-term option
  1538. 53:59is going to be slower. So when we start
  1539. 54:02there is like this gap between
  1540. 54:04differential between their premiums.
  1541. 54:06As the time passes, you see this gap
  1542. 54:09grows.
  1543. 54:10Because your near-term option is growing
  1544. 54:12at a faster rate.
  1545. 54:14As this gap grows, this is our profit.
  1546. 54:18This differential is our profit. This is
  1547. 54:19where our edge comes from. So as this
  1548. 54:22gap is you we go through the time, the
  1549. 54:24gap is growing, the profit goes up.
  1550. 54:26That's how this strategy works.
  1551. 54:28So and we can model it again using
  1552. 54:31option strategy and see how exactly it's
  1553. 54:33going to work. Now
  1554. 54:35I do not know where the price is going
  1555. 54:38to land, but I can use the Greeks to
  1556. 54:41guide me for it. So what I will go is I
  1557. 54:44will sell my short option at 20 delta.
  1558. 54:48So 20 delta is going to be somewhere
  1559. 54:50around
  1560. 54:51$740.
  1561. 54:53So this is at 23 delta. I'll go with it.
  1562. 54:56So I'm going to sell a 740 call
  1563. 54:59uh for June 12 expiry. And for the back
  1564. 55:03week I'm going to buy 740 call at the
  1565. 55:05same price.
  1566. 55:09Now
  1567. 55:10the way this it is going to work is I'm
  1568. 55:12going to earn theta premium for it. Plus
  1569. 55:15I have a direction. This is a bullish
  1570. 55:17trade.
  1571. 55:18In this trade we want the market to go
  1572. 55:20to 740 strike.
  1573. 55:23Now this says that there is 23 delta. So
  1574. 55:26that means technically there is 23%
  1575. 55:28chance of that happening.
  1576. 55:30And uh
  1577. 55:32and the price here uh the chance of
  1578. 55:35profit here is 29%.
  1579. 55:38So, it is still higher than 23 because
  1580. 55:40we are getting theta premium for it.
  1581. 55:43Now, if the price goes up slowly into
  1582. 55:45this
  1583. 55:46So, if the price goes up higher like
  1584. 55:48this
  1585. 55:49then in this trade we can make like well
  1586. 55:51over 300% profit. In this trade our max
  1587. 55:54loss is just $162. So, it is a very
  1588. 55:57cheap and low-risk trade to put on.
  1589. 55:59And the upside can be $618.
  1590. 56:04So, I can make like more than 300%
  1591. 56:06profit in this kind of trade.
  1592. 56:08But, when I get into this trade
  1593. 56:11I have to wait till here, till
  1594. 56:13expiration to hit that bull's eye.
  1595. 56:15But, I'm not going to be waiting till
  1596. 56:17there because there are chances that
  1597. 56:19market can go up and then come back
  1598. 56:21down.
  1599. 56:22Right? So, if it goes into 20, 30, 40,
  1600. 56:2650% profit in a week
  1601. 56:28I'm going to book my profit.
  1602. 56:30And then I'm going to wait for another
  1603. 56:31pullback and make this trade. So, let's
  1604. 56:34say if someone made a trade like this
  1605. 56:37just yesterday.
  1606. 56:39Yesterday this option spread was trading
  1607. 56:41at $100.
  1608. 56:43Today it's $164. So, it's up 64% in just
  1609. 56:461 day.
  1610. 56:48So, with a trade like this we can have
  1611. 56:51asymmetrical risk reward.
  1612. 56:53And if you're taking profit early
  1613. 56:56you can have a higher win rate.
  1614. 56:59And uh
  1615. 57:01sometimes if you want to wait for the
  1616. 57:02maximum peak profit, you can also do
  1617. 57:04that. I have had trades where I've made
  1618. 57:06200%, 300% profit.
  1619. 57:09Or if you want uh something with higher
  1620. 57:12probability, you can reduce your strike
  1621. 57:14price to 30 delta.
  1622. 57:17So, 730 is going to be about 30 delta.
  1623. 57:20And now we will have higher probability.
  1624. 57:22Risk reward is slightly worse now. Now,
  1625. 57:24this is
  1626. 57:26um
  1627. 57:27$194 max loss.
  1628. 57:30Max profit $600. Still, it can be a
  1629. 57:32multi-bagger trade.
  1630. 57:34And all I need is the stock to go up a
  1631. 57:36little bit. I can book profit at any
  1632. 57:38point in this zone.
  1633. 57:40>> So, just just make sure I understand
  1634. 57:42this cuz this is a something I've never
  1635. 57:44seen before. See, you're buying the 730
  1636. 57:47call
  1637. 57:48and then you're also selling the 730
  1638. 57:50call, but the the call that you're
  1639. 57:52selling
  1640. 57:53you're you're selling earlier on because
  1641. 57:56you want
  1642. 57:58the better theta, right? And the one
  1643. 58:00that you're buying is further out. So,
  1644. 58:01you make money on the theta as as one
  1645. 58:03thing.
  1646. 58:05>> Yes.
  1647. 58:05>> Um and then you also want the the stock
  1648. 58:07to go
  1649. 58:09because when the stock was towards the
  1650. 58:10level when the stock goes towards 730,
  1651. 58:13does it it doesn't really make
  1652. 58:14Does it matter because one calls
  1653. 58:16canceling out the other one? So, you're
  1654. 58:18only making the theta, no?
  1655. 58:20>> So, in this trade, you can make this
  1656. 58:22trade a bullish trade, a bearish trade,
  1657. 58:25or even a neutral trade. It all depends
  1658. 58:27on where your strike price is. Strike
  1659. 58:30price is basically your price target.
  1660. 58:32If the price goes to your price target,
  1661. 58:35that is where you make maximum profit.
  1662. 58:37>> Yeah.
  1663. 58:38>> So, you have bullish direction to this
  1664. 58:40trade.
  1665. 58:41Now, if I bring these strikes down
  1666. 58:46So, if I bring these strikes down to
  1667. 58:49$710
  1668. 58:51Now, this becomes a delta neutral trade.
  1669. 58:54Now, in this case, I make profit if the
  1670. 58:57stock trades in this range.
  1671. 58:59So, now I need the stock to stay flat.
  1672. 59:03>> But But if you buy a call and sell a
  1673. 59:06call at the same price, does that not
  1674. 59:07cancel cancel it all out? Because
  1675. 59:11you just done answered options.
  1676. 59:14>> So, like I explained in the previous
  1677. 59:16illustration there is a difference
  1678. 59:18between deltas and thetas for the option
  1679. 59:21at the same strike. For example, let's
  1680. 59:24go back to the 730 example.
  1681. 59:26So, on the option that we are selling,
  1682. 59:29uh we are getting 32 delta.
  1683. 59:32>> Yeah.
  1684. 59:33>> So, but we are short selling this
  1685. 59:34option. So, we are short 32 delta.
  1686. 59:37>> Yeah.
  1687. 59:37>> And uh we are theta positive here. So,
  1688. 59:40we are earning $31 theta from this every
  1689. 59:43day.
  1690. 59:44>> Yeah.
  1691. 59:45>> And the option that we are buying has
  1692. 59:47higher delta.
  1693. 59:48>> Mhm.
  1694. 59:49>> Slightly higher. So, this is 35 delta.
  1695. 59:52And here we are paying $29 theta. So, we
  1696. 59:55can go here and this tool will show you
  1697. 59:57aggregate graphics, um aggregate
  1698. 1:00:00metrics. My total delta after the full
  1699. 1:00:04spread is 2.6.
  1700. 1:00:07My theta is $2.
  1701. 1:00:09So, that means on a trade which is
  1702. 1:00:11costing me just a little over $100,
  1703. 1:00:14I'm going to earn $2 a day, which is
  1704. 1:00:16basically like close to 2% a day.
  1705. 1:00:18>> Yeah.
  1706. 1:00:19>> And as we go closer to the expiration,
  1707. 1:00:21this is going to increase.
  1708. 1:00:23Now, 2% a day it does not sounds a lot,
  1709. 1:00:26but if the price works your way and you
  1710. 1:00:29are earning theta, the theta is going to
  1711. 1:00:31accelerate.
  1712. 1:00:32So, very high probability that I can
  1713. 1:00:35make somewhere between 30 to 50% profit
  1714. 1:00:37in the next 1 to 2 weeks.
  1715. 1:00:40>> Yeah, that makes that that makes sense.
  1716. 1:00:42And then
  1717. 1:00:45you're making money on the delta as well
  1718. 1:00:46because they've got different deltas
  1719. 1:00:47based on the time that you put them on.
  1720. 1:00:49So, you're making money on the delta.
  1721. 1:00:51That that that calculation between the
  1722. 1:00:53two deltas and the two thetas, you're
  1723. 1:00:54making the difference
  1724. 1:00:56as it goes.
  1725. 1:00:57And the more time you leave it, the
  1726. 1:00:58better because you're making money on
  1727. 1:01:00the theta ultimately.
  1728. 1:01:02>> Yeah. Yeah, I actually want the market
  1729. 1:01:04to move slower, right? Typically, an
  1730. 1:01:06option buyer wants the market to move
  1731. 1:01:07fast for them to make profit.
  1732. 1:01:10Here, I like it to move slowly. I want
  1733. 1:01:12it want a slow grind grind.
  1734. 1:01:15And then I can make profit.
  1735. 1:01:18And if I make faster, if the market
  1736. 1:01:20moves faster, let's say over the next
  1737. 1:01:23Nvidia has blockbuster earnings
  1738. 1:01:24tomorrow, the stock goes up to like 7:30
  1739. 1:01:27over the next week.
  1740. 1:01:28I'm still happy with 30 to 40% profit in
  1741. 1:01:30a week. Then I can close this trade and
  1742. 1:01:33open my next trade.
  1743. 1:01:35So and if I'm neutral on the market, I
  1744. 1:01:38can just do it at the current price. And
  1745. 1:01:41then this becomes a delta neutral trade.
  1746. 1:01:45And another thing, if I'm bearish on the
  1747. 1:01:48market,
  1748. 1:01:50I can do a put calendar. Here is I can
  1749. 1:01:52go and sell 680 put, which is at 21
  1750. 1:01:56delta.
  1751. 1:01:57Now if the if now let's say Nvidia has
  1752. 1:01:59bad earnings tomorrow, market drops,
  1753. 1:02:03then this trade can this trade has
  1754. 1:02:05potential to make 446% profit.
  1755. 1:02:09So yeah, it has a low probability. The
  1756. 1:02:12probability is 35%.
  1757. 1:02:14But the upside is 500%.
  1758. 1:02:17>> Yeah.
  1759. 1:02:19So So when you on the earlier example,
  1760. 1:02:21when you're talking about the Qs and you
  1761. 1:02:22were put them in the 740s,
  1762. 1:02:25so you're you're win a lot of money if
  1763. 1:02:27it goes to the end of the theater or you
  1764. 1:02:30if you hold the trade for a longer time,
  1765. 1:02:32you make more money. If it reaches the
  1766. 1:02:34740s, you make more money. What happens
  1767. 1:02:37if it just doesn't move or it goes the
  1768. 1:02:39wrong direction? Is that is that a
  1769. 1:02:41that's a loss?
  1770. 1:02:42>> So if it does not moves, uh so in this
  1771. 1:02:46case,
  1772. 1:02:47it all depends on what strike price we
  1773. 1:02:49choose. If I want to be slightly neutral
  1774. 1:02:52to bullish, let's say I want a trade
  1775. 1:02:53which is slightly bullish,
  1776. 1:02:55but gives me some uh downside
  1777. 1:02:58protection. I love downside protection.
  1778. 1:03:00I like to make profit if the stock moves
  1779. 1:03:03uh up, but if the stock comes down, I
  1780. 1:03:05would love some downside protection.
  1781. 1:03:07Then I can make a trade like this.
  1782. 1:03:09Uh where
  1783. 1:03:11>> [clears throat]
  1784. 1:03:12>> let's say I can make a trade at 715
  1785. 1:03:14strike.
  1786. 1:03:15It is slightly bullish. If market goes
  1787. 1:03:17up, I make profit. If the market comes
  1788. 1:03:19down,
  1789. 1:03:21then my break even is 698.
  1790. 1:03:24Currently, it's trading at 711.
  1791. 1:03:27So, I have about 12 to 13 points
  1792. 1:03:30downside protection
  1793. 1:03:32against a drop.
  1794. 1:03:34>> And how did you get that? Is that
  1795. 1:03:35because you get the theta? Does the
  1796. 1:03:36theta give you the downside protection?
  1797. 1:03:38>> Yes.
  1798. 1:03:38>> That's how you get the
  1799. 1:03:39>> Right.
  1800. 1:03:40Yes, now my theta is minimal. Now my
  1801. 1:03:42delta is minimal, less than one.
  1802. 1:03:45But my theta is higher.
  1803. 1:03:47>> Yeah.
  1804. 1:03:48>> And I can even do this trade with a
  1805. 1:03:49shorter duration. Let's say I think I
  1806. 1:03:51want to make a trade with just one week
  1807. 1:03:53duration.
  1808. 1:03:54I can make a trade like this
  1809. 1:03:57where
  1810. 1:03:58if the market stays flat, I make profit.
  1811. 1:04:01If the market goes up, I make profit. If
  1812. 1:04:03the market comes down a little bit,
  1813. 1:04:05I make profit as long as it trades in
  1814. 1:04:07this 701 to 730 range.
  1815. 1:04:11>> Just to make sure make sure I got this.
  1816. 1:04:12So, a lot of people might say, "I think
  1817. 1:04:15that the QQQ is going to go to 740 and
  1818. 1:04:18it's currently at 720."
  1819. 1:04:20They'll put the call option on
  1820. 1:04:22for 740, and then they'll just panic if
  1821. 1:04:25it doesn't move towards 740 because
  1822. 1:04:27every day they're losing money.
  1823. 1:04:29But the way you do it
  1824. 1:04:31means that you get the actual theta.
  1825. 1:04:33That means even if the stock doesn't do
  1826. 1:04:34anything, I'm making theta right now.
  1827. 1:04:36So, you get paid to wait a bit more.
  1828. 1:04:38>> Exactly. We are getting paid while the
  1829. 1:04:41price moves our way.
  1830. 1:04:46>> I don't know why more people don't do
  1831. 1:04:47this.
  1832. 1:04:48>> Because people don't know about it.
  1833. 1:04:52>> [laughter]
  1834. 1:04:54>> It's fantastic. I absolutely love this.
  1835. 1:04:56It's it's because it's it's not rocket
  1836. 1:04:58science. I mean, it's just putting one
  1837. 1:05:00more call
  1838. 1:05:01on onto the option that you are going to
  1839. 1:05:03put anyway.
  1840. 1:05:05>> Yeah, I would
  1841. 1:05:08I mean, this is why my account has such
  1842. 1:05:10low drawdown because I use strategies
  1843. 1:05:12like this.
  1844. 1:05:14And if there is another there are levels
  1845. 1:05:16to it. There is next level is I can buy
  1846. 1:05:18both call and put calendar
  1847. 1:05:20and make profit both ways.
  1848. 1:05:23I don't even have to predict the market
  1849. 1:05:25direction.
  1850. 1:05:27>> Yeah, you can literally be paid to be
  1851. 1:05:28wrong. You can you can be paid to be
  1852. 1:05:30wrong or you can be paid when the stock
  1853. 1:05:32does nothing.
  1854. 1:05:33You can just sit there and make money.
  1855. 1:05:35>> Yeah, exactly. And in a trade like this,
  1856. 1:05:37if you are right, you can make a lot of
  1857. 1:05:39money.
  1858. 1:05:40If you're wrong, your loss is actually
  1859. 1:05:42pretty small. You can do these kind of
  1860. 1:05:44trades with as little as $100 to $200.
  1861. 1:05:47So, even if you have a small account,
  1862. 1:05:50you should never buy call. This is the
  1863. 1:05:52way to go.
  1864. 1:05:54>> That's crazy. But and obviously the only
  1865. 1:05:57way you lose is if you get it completely
  1866. 1:05:58wrong, which when you're buying the
  1867. 1:06:00larger cops larger cap stocks on a on a
  1868. 1:06:02bullish market, it's
  1869. 1:06:04if you buy in decent companies in a
  1870. 1:06:05bullish market, it's not often that
  1871. 1:06:07you're going to get a the stock will
  1872. 1:06:09completely the wrong direction. And if
  1873. 1:06:10it does, you just buy more.
  1874. 1:06:12>> And you can the great thing is
  1875. 1:06:14you can do this kind of trade for any
  1876. 1:06:16trade duration.
  1877. 1:06:18If you think you need 3 months, you can
  1878. 1:06:21do a 3 months long trade.
  1879. 1:06:23And
  1880. 1:06:24and you just use the delta. Just sell
  1881. 1:06:26between just buy between 20 to 30 delta.
  1882. 1:06:30There is very high probability that
  1883. 1:06:31eventually the stock price is going to
  1884. 1:06:33go and touch it.
  1885. 1:06:36>> And and say if you buy it a month out,
  1886. 1:06:37what's the what's the spread between the
  1887. 1:06:39options there? If if you're buying a
  1888. 1:06:41month out, you buy like
  1889. 1:06:43uh is it like or you can tell me you'd
  1890. 1:06:45buy say it's
  1891. 1:06:47Google whatever 400 calls
  1892. 1:06:49and you want it to reach 400 in a month.
  1893. 1:06:52How would you position those?
  1894. 1:06:54The buy and the sell call.
  1895. 1:06:56>> Right. So, if I think I want to buy
  1896. 1:06:58Google, I can make a trade like this,
  1897. 1:07:00which is 4 weeks out.
  1898. 1:07:03And um
  1899. 1:07:05I will sell
  1900. 1:07:06a 400 call for June 18
  1901. 1:07:10and buy a 400 call for the back month.
  1902. 1:07:13And in this case, my max loss is just
  1903. 1:07:15175.
  1904. 1:07:17Max profit can be 575.
  1905. 1:07:20Huge asymmetric risk reward.
  1906. 1:07:22And even if it stays flat,
  1907. 1:07:26I can still make profit. So, let's zoom
  1908. 1:07:28in a little bit. So, let's say I make
  1909. 1:07:29this trade and the stock does not moves
  1910. 1:07:32at all, it stays flat for the whole
  1911. 1:07:34month, you can still make close to 50%
  1912. 1:07:36profit here.
  1913. 1:07:38>> So, just to get this right, you buy you
  1914. 1:07:39buy the call saying June and then you
  1915. 1:07:41you'd sell you'd sell the call
  1916. 1:07:44or it's the other way around. You'd sell
  1917. 1:07:46the call in June and you'd buy the other
  1918. 1:07:47one in July. Is it like that?
  1919. 1:07:49Or is it the other way around?
  1920. 1:07:50>> Yeah. Well, yeah. So, we sell a short
  1921. 1:07:53term. So, let me go back to this graphic
  1922. 1:07:55again.
  1923. 1:07:57>> Uh you sell a short term
  1924. 1:07:58>> Yeah, I link short term and we are
  1925. 1:08:00buying long term.
  1926. 1:08:01And we make profit from the difference.
  1927. 1:08:04>> And is there ever a point where you just
  1928. 1:08:07let the short term
  1929. 1:08:09expire and then just hold hold the long
  1930. 1:08:11term to keep going or you always close
  1931. 1:08:12together?
  1932. 1:08:14>> So, usually I don't. Usually, I close it
  1933. 1:08:17for profit before expiration
  1934. 1:08:19uh because in that case um
  1935. 1:08:22uh
  1936. 1:08:24because usually when that happens
  1937. 1:08:26um
  1938. 1:08:28this is uh okay, I close it for uh
  1939. 1:08:30because if the short leg expires, then
  1940. 1:08:33I'm just holding a long call.
  1941. 1:08:35Then I'm paying theta for it.
  1942. 1:08:37I don't want to pay theta.
  1943. 1:08:39So, which is why I will close it before
  1944. 1:08:41expiration, but sometimes I see my
  1945. 1:08:44trades
  1946. 1:08:45which I was happy to take close for 50%
  1947. 1:08:48or something profit
  1948. 1:08:49after my short call expired,
  1949. 1:08:52long call went parabolic.
  1950. 1:08:54And it went up 300% 400%. So, there are
  1951. 1:08:57scenarios like that.
  1952. 1:08:59But, that's not the game I'm playing.
  1953. 1:09:02I want consistent returns. I'm
  1954. 1:09:04compounding week over week.
  1955. 1:09:07My account is compounding at 8 to 15% a
  1956. 1:09:09month.
  1957. 1:09:10And with that kind of return, with such
  1958. 1:09:13low drawdown,
  1959. 1:09:14in 2-3 years it's going to it can go to
  1960. 1:09:17eight figures even.
  1961. 1:09:18>> The This is genius for me. It's totally
  1962. 1:09:21genius. Um And the best things that I
  1963. 1:09:24generally like genius strategies are
  1964. 1:09:26that they're so simple
  1965. 1:09:28and they're so simple and beautiful to
  1966. 1:09:30execute, but it's nothing nothing too
  1967. 1:09:32complicated, is it? It's not too
  1968. 1:09:34complicated. I mean, I've understood
  1969. 1:09:36everything you've said in in a 50-minute
  1970. 1:09:37session.
  1971. 1:09:39>> Yeah, exactly. Because um
  1972. 1:09:42because the way when people try to learn
  1973. 1:09:44it is
  1974. 1:09:45they start they get intimidated by a lot
  1975. 1:09:48of things because nobody really breaks
  1976. 1:09:50down in such simple terms.
  1977. 1:09:52Uh they talk about Greeks and all those
  1978. 1:09:55things and uh charting and technical
  1979. 1:09:57analysis. It was intimidating to me also
  1980. 1:10:00initially.
  1981. 1:10:01But what I figured was that instead of
  1982. 1:10:04learning everything like a reading a
  1983. 1:10:06full textbook,
  1984. 1:10:08focus on a couple of strategies and
  1985. 1:10:10master them.
  1986. 1:10:12And after some experiences, everything
  1987. 1:10:14starts to make sense to you. Then it
  1988. 1:10:16becomes second nature.
  1989. 1:10:18Options is all about the probability.
  1990. 1:10:20The reason why a lot of traders lose,
  1991. 1:10:23even if you give them a profitable
  1992. 1:10:25strategy,
  1993. 1:10:26they don't understand the expected
  1994. 1:10:28value. They don't understand what the
  1995. 1:10:31risk is, what the reward is, what's the
  1996. 1:10:33win rate, how does that affect their
  1997. 1:10:35overall profit and loss.
  1998. 1:10:37With options, you get it up front,
  1999. 1:10:39right? You get up front.
  2000. 1:10:41That this much profit it can make. This
  2001. 1:10:43is your maximum side potential. This is
  2002. 1:10:46your chance of profit.
  2003. 1:10:48It is all baked in the data.
  2004. 1:10:50And with tools like this, it makes it
  2005. 1:10:52very easy to understand.
  2006. 1:10:54So, I did not learn options by reading a
  2007. 1:10:57textbook or by watching a lot of videos.
  2008. 1:10:59Yeah, I did watch a lot of videos on
  2009. 1:11:01YouTube on Theta profits uh
  2010. 1:11:03on Tastytrade channel, and I learned a
  2011. 1:11:06lot of strategies from there.
  2012. 1:11:07But, you basically learn by doing. It's
  2013. 1:11:10math.
  2014. 1:11:11You do not learn math by theory. You
  2015. 1:11:13learn it by doing.
  2016. 1:11:15So, you have to put it in practice. I
  2017. 1:11:17would spend I used to spend a lot of
  2018. 1:11:18time. I still do.
  2019. 1:11:21Going into this tool and modeling
  2020. 1:11:22different trade ideas and see how they
  2021. 1:11:24work.
  2022. 1:11:26And there's another great thing in this
  2023. 1:11:27tool. Once I make this trade, I can just
  2024. 1:11:29save this trade.
  2025. 1:11:30And this is like a paper trade now. Now,
  2026. 1:11:33it is going to track it in my account on
  2027. 1:11:35how this trade works.
  2028. 1:11:37And you can even go and see its chart
  2029. 1:11:39and see how it's working.
  2030. 1:11:42So, let's say you bought this call
  2031. 1:11:44calendar on Google 1 week ago
  2032. 1:11:47when it was trading at a higher price.
  2033. 1:11:49Even though the stock price has come
  2034. 1:11:50down, you can see
  2035. 1:11:53that the options has not lost any value.
  2036. 1:11:56Stock price came down,
  2037. 1:11:58but you you're still flat on your trade.
  2038. 1:12:02This is why it works so well.
  2039. 1:12:04>> To just to close it out, I guess do you
  2040. 1:12:06have any
  2041. 1:12:07final thoughts about how someone else
  2042. 1:12:09can get started and and
  2043. 1:12:12they not they don't have to You've heard
  2044. 1:12:13of Black-Scholes formula and the the big
  2045. 1:12:15the big black book of Black-Scholes
  2046. 1:12:17formula and the book They don't need to
  2047. 1:12:18read that.
  2048. 1:12:20>> I think that is what makes it
  2049. 1:12:22intimidating for people because they
  2050. 1:12:24hear about all these complicated
  2051. 1:12:26formulas. But, with tools like this, you
  2052. 1:12:28don't have to
  2053. 1:12:30go deep into it.
  2054. 1:12:31You can start with just focusing on
  2055. 1:12:33delta and theta
  2056. 1:12:35and start to make some paper trades.
  2057. 1:12:37Basically, understand how it works.
  2058. 1:12:40And you will learn by experience.
  2059. 1:12:44>> That's been incredible. I think this has
  2060. 1:12:46been one of the the episode where I've
  2061. 1:12:48learned the most and and had my eyes
  2062. 1:12:50open. So, really really appreciate you
  2063. 1:12:52delivering all of this this knowledge
  2064. 1:12:54and information. It's so valuable.
  2065. 1:12:57Thank you for giving back, and thank you
  2066. 1:12:59for being transparent. Do you have any
  2067. 1:13:00final thoughts or anything else you want
  2068. 1:13:02to close in on?
  2069. 1:13:03>> Um yeah, I would say
  2070. 1:13:06uh one of the biggest problems that I
  2071. 1:13:08see with a lot of traders I work with,
  2072. 1:13:11they learn a new strategy, and they are
  2073. 1:13:14excited they are thrilled with it with
  2074. 1:13:15it they are very enthusiastic about it,
  2075. 1:13:18and then they start to make big trader
  2076. 1:13:20big trades right off the bat, and they
  2077. 1:13:22lose money, and they think that the
  2078. 1:13:23strategy does not work. They hop onto
  2079. 1:13:26another strategy, do the same thing,
  2080. 1:13:28which is why a lot of traders can spend
  2081. 1:13:30years chasing different strategies and
  2082. 1:13:32losing money.
  2083. 1:13:34But what you need to do is trade small,
  2084. 1:13:37and give it time.
  2085. 1:13:39I don't If I learn a strategy,
  2086. 1:13:41I don't mind trading it for 3 months or
  2087. 1:13:44even 6 months with just one contract,
  2088. 1:13:46risking couple hundred dollars on every
  2089. 1:13:48trade.
  2090. 1:13:49Because if it works for me over that
  2091. 1:13:51period, I will make 20 to 50 trades with
  2092. 1:13:54that strategy. If I'm winning most of
  2093. 1:13:55them,
  2094. 1:13:57that gives me a good understanding of
  2095. 1:13:58yes, this is profitable,
  2096. 1:14:01and then I have rest of my life to use
  2097. 1:14:03that strategy, and I can compound
  2098. 1:14:05compound it.
  2099. 1:14:06You don't think of it in a way that I
  2100. 1:14:08learned this, I need to make all the
  2101. 1:14:10money today.
  2102. 1:14:11Start by practicing it. Take it slow.
  2103. 1:14:14You We people People spend 4 years going
  2104. 1:14:17to college, spend six figures in
  2105. 1:14:19tuition,
  2106. 1:14:20and then they do internship, then they
  2107. 1:14:22work at a job for few years. It takes
  2108. 1:14:24them 10 years to build a career where
  2109. 1:14:26they are at a point where they feel that
  2110. 1:14:28they've achieved some level of success,
  2111. 1:14:30but with trading, people think that they
  2112. 1:14:33should do it in a week.
  2113. 1:14:35It's It does not work that way. So, you
  2114. 1:14:37have to develop your skill and be
  2115. 1:14:39patient. It's not going to take 10
  2116. 1:14:41years. Most people, if you have the
  2117. 1:14:43right direction, you can learn it in 3
  2118. 1:14:45to 6 months. And I think if you put in
  2119. 1:14:48that level of effort and discipline, it
  2120. 1:14:50can be life-changing.
  2121. 1:14:51>> Where can people find you if they've got
  2122. 1:14:53any questions?
  2123. 1:14:54>> Yeah, you can reach out to me on I have
  2124. 1:14:55a YouTube channel called Options with
  2125. 1:14:57Ravish, and I also have an Instagram.
  2126. 1:15:01It's called Hey Ravish. You can search
  2127. 1:15:03or find the link in the description.
  2128. 1:15:06>> Thank you so much for your time, Ravish.
  2129. 1:15:07It was absolutely amazing, and you've
  2130. 1:15:10delivered tremendous knowledge that I'm
  2131. 1:15:12sure is going to change a lot of
  2132. 1:15:13people's lives.
  2133. 1:15:15>> Thank you, Stephen. It was a pleasure
  2134. 1:15:17speaking with you.

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