The Delta-Neutral Setup: How To Profit In Any Market Direction — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00You can make a lot of money. The
- 0:01strategy is easier. It's based on maths.
- 0:04So, if you can do basic maths, you can
- 0:06do it. If the market stays flat, I make
- 0:08profit. If the market goes up, I make
- 0:10profit. If the market comes down a
- 0:12little bit, I make profit. My goal was
- 0:14to double the account in 1 year, but I
- 0:17ended up doubling it in just a few
- 0:18months. In a delta neutral strategy,
- 0:20instead of predicting the market
- 0:22direction, we take both sides of the
- 0:24trade. So, even if I start from $100,
- 0:27the price goes to 95, even though
- 0:29technically the stock is down, but I'm
- 0:31still winning. As the time passes, you
- 0:33see this gap grows because your
- 0:35near-term option is growing at a faster
- 0:37rate. As this gap grows, this is our
- 0:40profit, but this is where our edge comes
- 0:42from. Based on the back test for several
- 0:44last years, I know what the win rate is
- 0:46going to be, what the expectancy is
- 0:48going to be, and I can just execute that
- 0:50strategy every week.
- 0:52>> So, you you are the casino.
- 0:55>> You can say that.
- 1:00>> Welcome to Undiscovered Traders. Today,
- 1:02we welcome Ravish from Greater New York,
- 1:04currently completing his $1 million
- 1:06challenge trading two very unique
- 1:08strategies we've actually never had
- 1:10covered before on the podcast. Joined
- 1:13him for last year, already setting up
- 1:14$327,000
- 1:17in broker verified profits. And this is
- 1:19kind of the crazy part.
- 1:22He's done it without ever looking at a
- 1:24chart and executing roughly 2 hours a
- 1:27day. So, this is a potential strategy
- 1:29for part-time traders. And today, we're
- 1:31going to look at his delta neutral
- 1:33strategy and his time spread strategy.
- 1:36He's got a full deck, full strategy all
- 1:38prepared to walk you through walk us
- 1:40through for you guys. Full value, but
- 1:41first there
- 1:44How are you, Ravish?
- 1:46>> I'm good. Very well. Thank you for
- 1:48having me.
- 1:49>> You've made I mean, we've got like
- 1:51300,000 plus verified. I think it's a
- 1:53bit more than that. But you've made
- 1:55$300,000
- 1:57without
- 1:58uh looking at charts. Can you just What
- 2:00do you look at if you're not looking at
- 2:01charts?
- 2:03>> So, I make my trades using option
- 2:05Greeks. I'm an option seller.
- 2:07So, the strategies that I practice are
- 2:10actually systematic strategies. They are
- 2:12based on option Greeks and options data.
- 2:15And everything is priced into those
- 2:18premiums, and we can use that to make
- 2:20these trades
- 2:21without having to worry about what's
- 2:22going on in the chart.
- 2:25>> Nice. And I just want For the For the
- 2:27people watching, comment below like what
- 2:29your experience level is with options.
- 2:31I'm just curious
- 2:32uh if people how how experienced they
- 2:35are in it because I think options are
- 2:36starting to boom now, but what would you
- 2:38say is the kind of the advantages to the
- 2:40strategies that you're about to kind of
- 2:42walk people through and teach people
- 2:43today?
- 2:44>> So, most people when they start with
- 2:46options, they start by buying options.
- 2:48They buy call and puts. And when you do
- 2:51that, you are fighting against the time
- 2:53because there is something called theta
- 2:55premium.
- 2:56And your option decays very rapidly. And
- 3:00if the price does not move fast enough,
- 3:03then your options go to zero. So,
- 3:04statistically, 80% of the options go to
- 3:07zero. And that's why most option buyers
- 3:10lose money.
- 3:11So, that means people who are on the
- 3:13selling side of the options, they can
- 3:15win most of the time because they are
- 3:17the ones selling these options.
- 3:18>> You were telling me a couple of things
- 3:20just before
- 3:21um before we went on the air, and it was
- 3:23kind of you you said that your strategy
- 3:25was too easy. Was it or was it was hard
- 3:28it was hard to go wrong?
- 3:30Tell me a bit about that.
- 3:32>> So, it's it's too easy for me now
- 3:34because I've been doing it for many
- 3:36years.
- 3:37Uh but for someone who's new, it's
- 3:39initially going to be definitely there
- 3:41is going to be a learning curve, but
- 3:43it's well worth it.
- 3:44>> It's very easy to make mistakes. But for
- 3:46with your strategy, you were saying
- 3:47there's more of a
- 3:48a margin for error. Can you tell me a
- 3:50bit about that?
- 3:52>> Yeah, so most traders what they do is
- 3:55they try to predict the price. They look
- 3:57at the charts, they look at the
- 3:58patterns, and they try to predict where
- 4:01the market is going today, where is it
- 4:03going next week. And uh based on the
- 4:06chart patterns, statistically, there is
- 4:09no real proven edge in it. Some people
- 4:11have developed their system with a lot
- 4:14of experience and instinct. But if we we
- 4:17are clearly looking at technical, there
- 4:18is no like clear technical pattern which
- 4:21we can say that you just follow this
- 4:23pattern mechanically and it's going to
- 4:24work.
- 4:25But when we come to the option selling
- 4:27side, there is a risk premium baked into
- 4:30the options. So when you are selling
- 4:32options, you have an edge.
- 4:34And I don't have to be precise on my
- 4:37timing or my entry. I can have a lot of
- 4:40room for error. The market can go up,
- 4:42down, or in circles, and I can still
- 4:44make profit in any market condition. So
- 4:46last year I started a brand new account.
- 4:49Now in the past I've made millions in
- 4:51profits, but last year I was like, if I
- 4:53were to start a new account with
- 4:55$100,000, can I make 10K a month with
- 4:57it? Which is like a goal for a lot of
- 4:59people.
- 5:00So
- 5:01turned out that was too easy. Right off
- 5:03the bat, in the first months I started
- 5:05to make 15, 20,000 dollars with it. My
- 5:08goal was to double the account in 1
- 5:10year, but I ended up doubling it in just
- 5:12a few months. So I was like, this is too
- 5:14easy, I need to level it up. So then now
- 5:17my new benchmark is how do how fast can
- 5:20I grow this to a million dollars?
- 5:22There's no fixed timeline for it, but we
- 5:24are now 14 months in, and the account is
- 5:27already at 450,000 now.
- 5:30>> So many people are getting 10% interest
- 5:32a year.
- 5:33I mean, how many hedge funds are out
- 5:35there? And people are putting all of
- 5:37their savings, 100, 200,000 of their
- 5:38savings, and they're lucky if they get
- 5:4010% in the year, if it's a good year.
- 5:42Especially in the United States, it's
- 5:44it's been a little bit the the SPY and
- 5:47the Qs have been returning less than
- 5:49than the markets in Europe these days.
- 5:53>> Yeah, absolutely. For most people, 10% a
- 5:56year is the S&P benchmark. And here I'm
- 5:59able to compound this account in 10 to
- 6:0215% a month. Now, when people think of
- 6:04compounding, people think of compounding
- 6:07on an annual basis, but compounding is
- 6:10actually based on intervals. It can be a
- 6:12monthly thing. It can be quarterly
- 6:14thing. The faster you can compound the
- 6:17shorter intervals you have, the more
- 6:19profit you can make with it.
- 6:22>> So, I've got two questions really for
- 6:25you. I mean, first of all, I think it's
- 6:26it's an incredible return on investment
- 6:28of a system that returns 10% a month
- 6:30kind of systematically rather than
- 6:32discretionary day traders who are
- 6:35making 25% or 30% over a couple of
- 6:38months and then they've lost 100% when
- 6:40they blow up on shorting the crazy meme
- 6:42stock or something like that. I think
- 6:45I'm really looking forward to getting
- 6:46into your strategy, but I mean, first of
- 6:48all,
- 6:49um
- 6:50do you need a lot of money to do this?
- 6:51For the people learning, can you start
- 6:53small?
- 6:54>> Yeah, absolutely. You can start with as
- 6:56little as you want. In fact, if you're
- 6:59new, I would recommend you to start with
- 7:01as little as possible because no matter
- 7:04what strategy you try, there is going to
- 7:05be learning curve. Initially, you can
- 7:07lose money.
- 7:08So, the goal should be to lose as little
- 7:10as possible while you're learning
- 7:13so that you don't get
- 7:15you don't get hurt by the market. The
- 7:18The mistake some people do is they start
- 7:20with two large positions. They have a
- 7:22couple of bad losses, and it sets you
- 7:24back and and it demotivates you from
- 7:27even trying something new
- 7:29because you might be close to getting a
- 7:31positive expectancy. You might be close
- 7:33to getting that edge, but now you have
- 7:36had a setback, you are going to stop
- 7:39trying it.
- 7:40>> How easy is this to for people to learn
- 7:42and replicate because I think for some
- 7:44newer traders these are some scary
- 7:46sounding words delta delta neutral time
- 7:49time spread strategy.
- 7:51>> So
- 7:52most people the thing is that most
- 7:55people are not aware that something like
- 7:57this exists.
- 7:58But once you understand the basics
- 8:01at some point it will become a second
- 8:02nature
- 8:03because
- 8:04if you are brand new to trading there is
- 8:06a learning curve but this is way easier
- 8:09than charting and technical analysis and
- 8:11doing all those patterns and indicators.
- 8:14>> I love that. So it's easier. It's it's
- 8:16the strategy is easier it's just less
- 8:18conventional.
- 8:19>> It's based on maths. So if you can do
- 8:21basic maths you can do it.
- 8:24>> And just just lastly
- 8:26first you have a YouTube channel right?
- 8:27So people want to watch this and learn
- 8:29more about it.
- 8:30You've got a ton of videos.
- 8:33>> Yeah I teach almost all of my strategies
- 8:36in-depth on my YouTube channel. So if
- 8:38you like any of these strategies you can
- 8:40go to my channel and watch full videos
- 8:42on them
- 8:43where you can learn them how to get
- 8:44started with it.
- 8:46>> Guys and the the link is in the
- 8:48description below and just before you go
- 8:50through your strategy two strategies
- 8:52actually two option strategies before
- 8:54you go into that just quickly I know I
- 8:56know we've we've only got 300,000
- 8:58verified for you on Kimble because
- 9:00because you've just uploaded the broker
- 9:02last year.
- 9:03So what's how long you've been trading
- 9:04for? What's your total profits?
- 9:07>> So I've been trading for almost 10 years
- 9:09now. Initially when I started it was
- 9:13it was actually a stroke of luck. I went
- 9:15to the Robinhood app to buy stocks. My
- 9:18goal was I will buy Fang apps Fang
- 9:20stocks.
- 9:21And when I clicked on the trade button
- 9:23it showed another button called trade
- 9:25options.
- 9:26So initially I thought it would give me
- 9:28some options some advanced options to
- 9:30submit my order.
- 9:31And then I clicked on it and learned
- 9:33about calls and puts it was something
- 9:35brand new to me.
- 9:36And I was like this sounds fascinating.
- 9:38I can control with 100 shares of a
- 9:40company like Meta for just a few hundred
- 9:42dollars.
- 9:44So, I was like, okay, let me try it. And
- 9:46I put in $500 in my first trade. Next
- 9:48day, it turned into $2,500.
- 9:51>> Oh.
- 9:51>> And then another trade next day, next
- 9:53day overnight trade, made another
- 9:55$1,500. So, in my first week, I made
- 9:58like $5,000 without even knowing what I
- 10:00was doing.
- 10:02And I started my account with just
- 10:03$2,000.
- 10:05So, I was like, this is amazing. I'm now
- 10:07going to do this and retire from
- 10:08everything else. I was working in tech
- 10:10back then.
- 10:11So, I was like, this is too easy. I
- 10:13should do this all the time.
- 10:16But but that beginner's luck didn't last
- 10:19very long. And then I losing money as
- 10:21most traders do.
- 10:23And
- 10:24I spent several years trying to chase
- 10:26that rabbit hole doing technical
- 10:28analysis on charts, buying options,
- 10:31losing money.
- 10:33It was an expensive lesson.
- 10:35But I think every trader needs a journey
- 10:37like that to get to a point where you
- 10:40find something that works for you.
- 10:43And then I learned about option selling.
- 10:45And
- 10:46I was like, this I like this because I
- 10:49don't have to look charts, I don't have
- 10:51to be good at technical analysis.
- 10:53I can just do simple maths and bet on
- 10:56probabilities
- 10:58and have the house advantage. Because
- 11:00when you are buying options, you are
- 11:02like a gambler trying to time the market
- 11:05or play your luck. But when you are
- 11:06selling, you are the house. You have the
- 11:08house advantage.
- 11:10>> So, you you are the casino.
- 11:13>> You can say that.
- 11:15>> You you are the casino. It's like It's
- 11:17like rubbish palace, not Caesar's palace
- 11:19um in Las Vegas. But I'm curious to get
- 11:22into it. Do you want to open up the Do
- 11:24you want to open up the deck and and
- 11:25let's see let's see this strategy.
- 11:28>> Okay. So, a little bit about me. Uh been
- 11:31trading options for more than 10 years
- 11:33now. I had a career in tech. I retired
- 11:36from my career a couple of years ago
- 11:38when I hit a point where my options
- 11:40income was more than my full-time job.
- 11:42So, at that point it made sense to go
- 11:44all in on it because I thought that I
- 11:47could be I should be able to do much
- 11:48better.
- 11:49And uh like I said, I started out with
- 11:51the beginner's luck. But then there were
- 11:53several years of period where it was hit
- 11:56and trial, losing money, learning
- 11:58different thing. I had a big setback
- 12:01during COVID period. By that time I was
- 12:04like, "Okay, I need to do something
- 12:06better here."
- 12:07Because uh most of because buying
- 12:10options I'm losing most of the time. So,
- 12:12I learned that there is a selling side
- 12:13of options also. Who are making profit
- 12:16off me.
- 12:17So, I decided to learn that side. I
- 12:19started selling options. Initially, when
- 12:21most people start with selling options,
- 12:23they start with simple strategies like
- 12:26selling cash-secured puts, selling
- 12:28covered calls. Which can work well. A
- 12:30lot of people make 20 to 40% annual
- 12:33return with those kind of strategies and
- 12:35they have been battle-tested for many
- 12:37years and they work well. And they have
- 12:39a lot of margin of error.
- 12:41Um
- 12:42but then I was like, "Okay, how do I do
- 12:45something better?" Because at that point
- 12:47my account was relatively small. I was
- 12:49trading with about 20 30,000 dollars.
- 12:51So, even if I made 10 20 percent in a
- 12:54year, it was not really worth of the
- 12:56time. So, I was like, "I need to do
- 12:58something exponential here."
- 13:00Um and then I started to contribute more
- 13:04to my account. I was growing my account
- 13:06consistently. I started to use some more
- 13:08leverage.
- 13:09And I was doing really well
- 13:11until 2022. In 2021, I had a blockbuster
- 13:15year.
- 13:16And in 2022, I realized that was a bull
- 13:18market genius.
- 13:20That when everything is going up, it's
- 13:22easy to make money.
- 13:23When everything goes down, you get
- 13:26crushed hard.
- 13:27And uh
- 13:29at that point I decided that I will
- 13:31focus on something called a delta
- 13:33neutral strategy.
- 13:35In a delta neutral strategy, instead of
- 13:37predicting the market direction, we take
- 13:40both sides of the trade.
- 13:42And if the market trades in that range,
- 13:45you make profit. And the best thing
- 13:47about that is that delta neutral
- 13:49strategies are even more profitable in a
- 13:52down year like 2022.
- 13:56>> Nice. Interesting. So is a delta neutral
- 13:57is is it kind of like you want the stock
- 14:00to stay where it is? Or like is it like
- 14:02a butterfly pattern or something like
- 14:04that?
- 14:05>> Yeah, there are a lot of different
- 14:07patterns. Uh
- 14:08delta neutral is one umbrella term for
- 14:11several different option structures.
- 14:13Simplest one is triangle and iron
- 14:15condor. We can dive into some examples
- 14:18on how they work.
- 14:20Uh once you understand, it's fairly easy
- 14:22to do.
- 14:23>> But can I just understand by delta
- 14:25neutral what you want the stock to do?
- 14:27When you when you place an options
- 14:28trade, what you want the stock to do?
- 14:30>> We want the stock to trade in a range.
- 14:32So, for example,
- 14:34>> Okay. So, let's say we have a stock
- 14:36that's trading at $100. We start here.
- 14:39And then we sell a put at $90 and we
- 14:42sell call at $110.
- 14:45So, we have 10% up and down range. As
- 14:48long as we stay in this range, the
- 14:50market can go up, down, or in circles.
- 14:53As long as it stays in the range,
- 14:55we get premium from both sides and we
- 14:57keep that premium.
- 15:00We sell call to someone, we sell put to
- 15:02someone.
- 15:03And we if we stay in the middle, we win.
- 15:06So, even if I start from $100, the price
- 15:09goes to 95, even though technically the
- 15:11stock is down, but I'm still winning
- 15:14because it is still above my 90 strike.
- 15:18>> Yeah. Yeah, makes full sense. I'm not
- 15:20going to ask any more questions. I'm cuz
- 15:21I think you you I'll I'll ask you
- 15:23questions later in the presentation. So,
- 15:24I'll let you go back and then we'll
- 15:26continue.
- 15:27>> So, I've been trading Delta neutral for
- 15:29several years now and at this point I've
- 15:31become like a very good expert in it.
- 15:34And my strategies are a very systematic.
- 15:37They're based on backtesting.
- 15:39And
- 15:41a lot of these strategies are mechanical
- 15:43and even automated.
- 15:45So, the way it works is let's say I find
- 15:47a strategy where I open a trade at a
- 15:50fixed day at a fixed time with a fixed
- 15:52structure.
- 15:54And based on the backtest for several
- 15:56last years, I know what the win rate is
- 15:58going to be, what the expectancy is
- 16:00going to be, and I can just execute that
- 16:02strategy every week.
- 16:04So, using strategies like these,
- 16:07uh my goal was to make $10,000 a month
- 16:09on a new account with $100,000.
- 16:12And now this account is up to 456k
- 16:15including unrealized gain.
- 16:18My initial goal was to just make $10,000
- 16:20a month.
- 16:21The most fascinating part is that
- 16:23now this account that I just started
- 16:25with 100,000 last year,
- 16:27it is making more than 50,000 in a
- 16:29month.
- 16:31If you see on Kinfo, my last one month
- 16:33realized gain is $97,000.
- 16:36And this month currently month to date
- 16:38is $70,000.
- 16:40So, it is just like crazy to me that you
- 16:43can make this kind of return with just
- 16:45just starting with 100,000. Now, if you
- 16:48have smaller account, you can start with
- 16:5010,000 also.
- 16:51But, it will need time and experience to
- 16:54get to a level where you are able to
- 16:57produce returns which are phenomenal.
- 17:00>> Yeah, it's it's it sounds quite
- 17:02interesting because I it's not re I
- 17:04mean, is there a lot of creative
- 17:06creative thinking in the backtest and
- 17:09finding formulas or is it just very
- 17:10process process driven and repeating
- 17:13repeating what the data says?
- 17:14>> It is based on data. So, a lot of the
- 17:17data is actually based on the option
- 17:19Greeks. So, once you understand the
- 17:22option Greeks, initially it might sound
- 17:24a little bit complex,
- 17:26but if you just spend some time to
- 17:27understand it,
- 17:29it will unlock a whole new world for
- 17:30you, which I I'm sure it's going to be
- 17:32life-changing for most people.
- 17:35>> And and the Greeks are
- 17:37the Greeks aren't some
- 17:38some color it's the No, it's I was going
- 17:41to say the Greeks aren't some coliseum
- 17:42in Rome Rome, but it's I think that's
- 17:45that's a different country, but the
- 17:46Greeks aren't too the Greeks aren't too
- 17:48confusing really. What what what are the
- 17:50Greeks for the people I don't don't
- 17:51know. It's it's
- 17:53alpha, delta, gamma, theta, and
- 17:57implied volatility.
- 17:59>> focus on the Let's focus on the two
- 18:01simplest Greeks for now, which most
- 18:04people can easily understand. And 80% of
- 18:07the time you just rely on these two
- 18:08Greeks.
- 18:09One is delta.
- 18:11A delta basically means
- 18:14a multiplier.
- 18:15Right? So, if I have a If I have a stock
- 18:18that's trading at $100,
- 18:20and I buy a call option,
- 18:22which is currently at 20 delta,
- 18:25that means it will have a 20x
- 18:27multiplier. For every $1 the stock is
- 18:30going to move,
- 18:31my option is going to go up by $100 by
- 18:34$20.
- 18:35>> Yeah.
- 18:36>> So, that means if I buy this call option
- 18:38for Let's say I pay $200 for it.
- 18:41And I buy that call option, the stock
- 18:43goes up by 5%. So, stock goes up by $5,
- 18:48that means my option can gain five
- 18:51about 5 into 20 is $100 in premium.
- 18:55>> Yeah.
- 18:55>> So, an option that I bought for $200
- 18:58can make 50% return if the stock goes up
- 19:015%.
- 19:02>> Yeah, makes sense.
- 19:04>> And now another way that this option
- 19:06represent is that if you as an option
- 19:09buyer, you are buying a 20 delta 20
- 19:12delta call
- 19:13the chances of you making profit in it
- 19:16is only 20%.
- 19:18>> And if right
- 19:20>> If I'm selling an option and I'm selling
- 19:22that 20 delta option to you the chances
- 19:25of for me to make profit in that is
- 19:27about 80%.
- 19:30>> Is that is that true when when you read
- 19:31it out or is it you read the delta as
- 19:330.2 on the screen don't you? Like that's
- 19:36that's normally how it shows up and that
- 19:38literally means 20% chance of this
- 19:40working does it? The
- 19:42the Greeks the the machine is is is
- 19:45suggesting that.
- 19:46>> Yes, so that means it has 20% chance of
- 19:49expiring in the money. That means it
- 19:51will make some profit
- 19:53in about 20% of the times.
- 19:57So as an option seller if you are
- 19:59selling 20 delta calls or 20 delta puts
- 20:02you are going to make profit most of the
- 20:04time.
- 20:05>> Interesting. And obviously if that delta
- 20:07changes by which how far out away from
- 20:11the the money the the puts are or the
- 20:13calls are that you're buying the the
- 20:14delta would
- 20:15>> Yeah, it can be it can be it starts from
- 20:18like at the money is $50.
- 20:21The further out of the money you go the
- 20:23lower delta it's going to be.
- 20:25There are some option sellers who even
- 20:26sell like five delta option. They will
- 20:29have 95% win rate.
- 20:31But it but there is also another side to
- 20:34it.
- 20:35In one of case where the market has like
- 20:37a parabolic run
- 20:39they can also lose more than what they
- 20:41are making in in a single loss. So their
- 20:43losses are going to be bigger but they
- 20:45will have a higher win rate. So you have
- 20:47to optimize for the balance
- 20:49where I have high win rate
- 20:52with an even risk reward. So I
- 20:54personally like trades where I can have
- 20:5670 to 80% win rate
- 20:58with an even risk reward. If I'm winning
- 21:00I'm making $100 if I'm losing I'm losing
- 21:03$100.
- 21:04That means as long as I win more than
- 21:0650% of the times, I can be profitable.
- 21:09So, in actual terms, my win rate is like
- 21:1270% to 80% varies month on month. Last 2
- 21:15months has been close to 100% and you
- 21:18can trade it in many different ways.
- 21:20There are a lot of
- 21:21you can put together two to four options
- 21:24in a spread and come up with a lot of
- 21:26different strategies where you can
- 21:28construct a very sophisticated trade
- 21:31which can give you a lot of edge.
- 21:34>> And do you know what do you know what I
- 21:35think is uh is cool from what I'm
- 21:37understanding of your strategy is most
- 21:40people cuz
- 21:41I've traded with a lot of small cap
- 21:42micro cap equities traders and um
- 21:45the main thing about the complaint about
- 21:47is markets are quiet, it's dead,
- 21:49summertime July August. But your
- 21:51strategy probably loves summertime
- 21:53because you you want nothing to happen.
- 21:55The less that happens is the better. Is
- 21:57it not?
- 21:59>> Yeah, absolutely. We actually love the
- 22:01choppy market. Now, most traders
- 22:03complain about losing money in the
- 22:05choppy market especially if you're
- 22:07buying option in the market is choppy,
- 22:09your option goes to zero.
- 22:11That's what option sellers love.
- 22:13We like to sell options in that choppy
- 22:16market. Now, most of the time market is
- 22:17choppy.
- 22:19So, we sell options in that choppy
- 22:21market and make premium from both sides
- 22:24and your options expire worthless, we
- 22:26make money.
- 22:28>> Yeah, so
- 22:29you don't you don't love the
- 22:31the AI boom and revolution and Sandisk
- 22:34and Nvidia. You're you're loving the
- 22:37the boring uh what supermarkets or
- 22:42consumer staples is it that kind of more
- 22:44boring more boring industries like
- 22:46Walmart?
- 22:48>> So, I invest into
- 22:51I invest into all types of companies. I
- 22:52may very bullish I'm very bullish on AI
- 22:55and tech and I have lot of investments
- 22:58in all the big tech companies, AI
- 23:00companies, semiconductor companies.
- 23:02Uh when it comes to selling options,
- 23:05I am agnostic to the stock. The
- 23:07fundamentals of the stock does not
- 23:09matters to me. The
- 23:11uh
- 23:12the technical I don't do a lot of
- 23:15technical analysis.
- 23:16I look at stocks which have like a
- 23:18predictable range.
- 23:20And I trade options in those range. Now,
- 23:22there are some uh some periods where you
- 23:26can expect higher volatility.
- 23:28And in those periods, I would just step
- 23:30out of the market. Yeah, it's like
- 23:32selling insurance. So, let's say um you
- 23:35want to if you're selling insurance,
- 23:37you want to sell insurance where you
- 23:39have low risk.
- 23:41If you know that there is a flood
- 23:43warning warning, are you going to sell
- 23:44insurance in a flood warning? I'm not
- 23:46going to. I'm going to step out of the
- 23:48way.
- 23:49Even if it means that I do not make any
- 23:51trade for a month, I'm going to be okay
- 23:53with that.
- 23:54Because it is better to not trade and
- 23:57not lose money
- 23:59than going in the market and risking
- 24:01taking unwanted risk and losing money.
- 24:04So, you have to
- 24:06pay some attention to the macro cycle,
- 24:08what's going on in the market, is there
- 24:10any war going on, is there any FOMC
- 24:13coming?
- 24:14So, just step out of those events and
- 24:16most of the time it works well.
- 24:18Another great thing Now, this is a
- 24:20screenshot from my broker.
- 24:22The best part about the strategy is that
- 24:24if you see, it is up like 300% in uh
- 24:27since I started.
- 24:29But there is very little drawdown. It is
- 24:31pretty much going straight up. Then
- 24:33there are periods of flat months where
- 24:35like I said, I stopped trading in some
- 24:37months. You see like this flat period,
- 24:39like this was Iran war situation, I was
- 24:41flat.
- 24:42Because why take unwanted risk?
- 24:45Uh
- 24:46so, my drawdown is in single-digit
- 24:48percent. Typically, traders who make
- 24:51this kind of returns
- 24:53will have very high drawdown. They will
- 24:54have 50-60% drawdown at times.
- 24:58Here I have almost no drawdown. So, it's
- 25:00very low stress strategy for me.
- 25:03And even this this during this period,
- 25:06there were multiple drawdowns in S&P
- 25:08ranging from 15 to 20%.
- 25:11We went through the tariff situation. We
- 25:13went through the Iran war. S&P had
- 25:15multiple big drawdowns. My account had
- 25:18almost no drawdown.
- 25:20>> Yeah. Yeah, I think you can't stress
- 25:22that enough. It's It's
- 25:23we literally
- 25:25So, like two 10 to 20% drops in in the
- 25:28queues and the spies for the tariffs and
- 25:31the war. Yeah, it's incredible that
- 25:32you've uh
- 25:33>> Right. Now Now, a lot of people will say
- 25:35that oh, if you are making 300% 200%
- 25:39return in a year,
- 25:40you are beating all the hedge funds. Uh
- 25:43you can be a trillionaire in few years.
- 25:46If you are compounding at 200%, you can
- 25:48be a trillionaire in few years.
- 25:50>> True.
- 25:50>> But, that's not possible
- 25:52because of liquidity.
- 25:54In a lot of these trades, there is not
- 25:56enough liquidity
- 25:58that I cannot go out and put a billion
- 26:00dollar trade in a strategy like this.
- 26:03So, I can trade a few million dollars
- 26:05with a strategy like this,
- 26:07but I do not I cannot trade billions of
- 26:09dollars in a strategy like this and
- 26:11still generate same kind of returns
- 26:13because then you become the biggest
- 26:15position in the market and market makers
- 26:17will hunt you down.
- 26:20And
- 26:21so,
- 26:22there is liquidity concern where which
- 26:25is why you cannot scale it infinitely,
- 26:28but I'm happy to make a few million
- 26:29dollars. I'm not even thinking of that
- 26:31level.
- 26:32Uh
- 26:33and the other thing is the mindset and
- 26:35psychology.
- 26:36As my account size uh sizes are growing,
- 26:40I do not feel comfortable risking large
- 26:42amounts of money
- 26:44because capital preservation is the
- 26:46priority for me now.
- 26:47When you're starting with let's say
- 26:49$10,000, your goal is to get to
- 26:50$100,000.
- 26:52When you have made millions of dollars,
- 26:54you want to protect those.
- 26:56So, instead of which is why I was like,
- 26:58okay, I will start a new account with
- 27:00100k because I can afford to lose 100k.
- 27:03It If it goes to zero, it's not going to
- 27:06affect me.
- 27:07But, using that risk capital, I have
- 27:09swing I can take a shot at making it
- 27:1110x.
- 27:13>> Yeah.
- 27:14Fair. Makes sense. And And it's it's
- 27:16great it's great learnings and examples
- 27:18for newer traders who need a
- 27:20uh amplify their accounts and and turn
- 27:221,000 into a couple.
- 27:24>> Yeah, so anyone who wants to do trading,
- 27:26what I would recommend is like allocate
- 27:28a certain risk capital which you are
- 27:30okay if it if you lose it.
- 27:33That's way That way you can protect your
- 27:35bigger capital.
- 27:37But, and risk small amount to get to a
- 27:39point where you can be consistently
- 27:40profitable.
- 27:42So, uh let's get into the strategy. So,
- 27:44my first strategy is called delta
- 27:46neutral strategy. Now, this is an
- 27:48umbrella term for a lot of other
- 27:50strategies.
- 27:52Strategies like strangle and iron
- 27:54condor.
- 27:56Uh the main the way this strategy works
- 27:58is
- 27:59uh let's say you are an option buyer.
- 28:02You think the stock is going to go up,
- 28:04you buy call.
- 28:05If you think the stock is going to go
- 28:06down, you buy a put.
- 28:08What I think is I don't care where the
- 28:11stock is going. I'm going to look at the
- 28:13data.
- 28:14Let's say a stock is trading at $100.
- 28:17And my data says that in a given time
- 28:20period, let's say the time period is 1
- 28:22month,
- 28:23I think that this stock is going to
- 28:24trade between 10% up or down range.
- 28:28Based on the data, I can tell that uh in
- 28:31a month, the trading range for this
- 28:32stock is about less than 10%. Maybe it's
- 28:345 to 7%. So, I'm going to add some
- 28:37buffer to it.
- 28:38And I'm going to sell a put which is 10%
- 28:41down from the current price. And I'm
- 28:44going to sell a call which is 10% above
- 28:46the current price.
- 28:48And I'm going to collect premium from
- 28:49both side. So, the put buyer is going to
- 28:51pay me credit. The call buyer is going
- 28:54to pay me.
- 28:55As long as the stock trades in this
- 28:57in this range,
- 28:59both of these expire worthless and I get
- 29:01to keep that profit.
- 29:05>> Can I ask what happens if
- 29:08it's very rare to happen, but what
- 29:10happens if
- 29:12um I don't know, it's British British
- 29:14Airways. Yeah, yeah, it's a safe uh
- 29:17American Airlines, something like that.
- 29:19It's a safe type of player that you play
- 29:21and one of the planes crashes or they
- 29:23found out that every single broken and
- 29:25it's a complete crisis and and the stock
- 29:26goes from 100 to three
- 29:29overnight. Is will that be a big loss?
- 29:32So, big loss as well.
- 29:35>> So, there are two ways to do this.
- 29:38One is defined risk and one is undefined
- 29:41risk. So, let me show you with an
- 29:43example.
- 29:44So, I use this tool called Option Strat
- 29:46to model my trades. Uh so, the simplest
- 29:50strategy is called strangle. So, let's
- 29:52say I want to make a trade on Meta. Meta
- 29:55has been through with the earnings.
- 29:56After earnings, there is a period of
- 29:58choppy period when the market tries to
- 30:00discover what what's next.
- 30:02So, I think I think that next 1 month
- 30:05can be like a calm period for Meta.
- 30:07The stock is trading at 605.
- 30:10I can go sell a put at 505 strike and I
- 30:14will get $380 $380 credit from it.
- 30:17And I can sell a call at 650 strike.
- 30:21And I will get $738 credit. So, total
- 30:24I'm getting like close to
- 30:26$1,120.
- 30:28And now, this gives me a range where the
- 30:30stock can go up or down
- 30:34in between this range, right? So, the
- 30:36price starts here or the next 1 month,
- 30:38the stock can go up or down like this.
- 30:40As long as it stays in this range,
- 30:44I get to keep this profit.
- 30:46And getting into this trade, you will
- 30:48know exactly what your chance of profit
- 30:51is.
- 30:52So, before I open the trade, it shows
- 30:54that I have 75% chance of winning this
- 30:56trade.
- 30:57And when I lose,
- 30:59I can use a stop loss. If the price goes
- 31:02out of this range, I can exit.
- 31:05>> Uh okay.
- 31:06So, it say it can
- 31:07>> of the times I'm winning and winning.
- 31:09And if it starts to go out of this
- 31:11range, at that point I can exit. My loss
- 31:13is going to be maybe a few hundred
- 31:15dollars.
- 31:16But there is another way to do this.
- 31:18Now, this kind of strategy you can say
- 31:20it's You can see here it says max loss
- 31:21infinite.
- 31:23If let's say there is a big news
- 31:25overnight, Meta stocks goes up or down
- 31:2720%. At that point, I can lose more than
- 31:30this $1,100.
- 31:33>> Yeah.
- 31:33>> So, in that case, what I like to do is
- 31:36instead, this is called selling naked
- 31:38strangle.
- 31:39So, I typically don't sell naked
- 31:40strangle like this because it has
- 31:42infinite risk.
- 31:44So, I like to hedge it by buying outside
- 31:47wings.
- 31:48So, let's say if I'm selling 550 put,
- 31:51I can buy another put, which can be 10
- 31:55points out.
- 31:56>> Yeah.
- 31:56>> And I can buy a call,
- 31:59which can also be 10 to 20 points out.
- 32:01Now, in this trade, my credit goes from
- 32:05receiving about $1,100,
- 32:08it goes to $269.
- 32:10But now my max loss is capped at 731.
- 32:14Now, no matter what happens,
- 32:16I'm not going to lose more than $731.
- 32:18>> Is it not just better to have the the
- 32:21stop in cuz with with options, it's can
- 32:23be tricky and they say don't use stops
- 32:25because you can get tugged out too easy.
- 32:27Is it Is that the reason why or
- 32:29cuz you don't you pay an extra premium
- 32:30unnecessarily, no?
- 32:33>> Yeah, so but
- 32:35if you are selling a strangle,
- 32:37it is not recommended for most people
- 32:40because you can have like a big black
- 32:43swan risk. What if there is like a
- 32:45recession or black swan risk overnight
- 32:47and the market drops 10%? What if there
- 32:50is something like COVID?
- 32:51So, you don't want to get wiped out on
- 32:54on those days.
- 32:56>> Yeah, cuz I I was thinking the options
- 32:58don't trade after hours, so you'll be
- 32:59okay. But that doesn't mean the world
- 33:00stops. Anything happens overnight and
- 33:02the stocks going to open up 20 30% out.
- 33:05So, you can completely protect yourself.
- 33:07This is what I love about options. You
- 33:09know your exact risk, your exact reward,
- 33:11and the exact probability of the
- 33:13occurrence.
- 33:14And you You must You must
- 33:16You must go to bed sleeping like a baby.
- 33:18You must sleep very well at night
- 33:20because everything's already worked out.
- 33:24>> Yeah, absolutely because I know that my
- 33:26probabilities are going to work out. And
- 33:29plus I I spend some additional time back
- 33:31testing to find these opportunities.
- 33:34Now, for example, let's say you opened a
- 33:36trade like this last week. Last week
- 33:38when Meta was at 708. At that point,
- 33:41this same option spread was trading for
- 33:43332.
- 33:45And now the price is doing thing. It's
- 33:47going up and down, but you see the above
- 33:49line
- 33:50is the trade. The bottom line is the
- 33:52stock price going up and down. This line
- 33:55is the trade price.
- 33:56There is some volatility, but you see
- 33:58that it's mostly going up to the right.
- 34:01>> Yeah.
- 34:01>> And as long as the price stays in this
- 34:04range,
- 34:05the premium is going to decay and we
- 34:07make profit.
- 34:09And you can do these trades for any
- 34:11duration. You can do it for um
- 34:14one-day duration. You can do it for zero
- 34:16DTD. You can do weekly. You can do
- 34:18monthly. In fact, I also do some zero
- 34:21DTD trades where I have asymmetric risk
- 34:24reward. I can even structure these
- 34:26trades that I want to risk $1,000, but I
- 34:29want my reward to be $2,000.
- 34:32All you have to do is play around with
- 34:33the strikes and probability
- 34:36and whatever you are comfortable with,
- 34:38you can go with that kind of setup.
- 34:40>> And then this is delta neutral because
- 34:42you're neutralizing the delta basically
- 34:43with the
- 34:44both sides. Both sides the call and the
- 34:46option.
- 34:47>> Yeah. And then there is another if you
- 34:51Now some people are like I I want a
- 34:53better risk reward.
- 34:55So either you can have a high win rate
- 34:58or you can have a high better risk
- 35:00reward.
- 35:01I like a balance where like in a trade
- 35:04like this typically when I start to lose
- 35:07there are also some adjustment
- 35:08strategies that I can use where in most
- 35:11cases my max loss is not going to be
- 35:13like this.
- 35:14So in a winning trade let's say I win
- 35:16$250 in a losing trade maybe I lose $300
- 35:19but I'm winning 70 to 80%. But if you
- 35:22want to structure it in a another way,
- 35:24there is another strategy called iron
- 35:26fly.
- 35:27Let's try this on something like Nvidia.
- 35:30>> Yeah.
- 35:31>> Another great way to sell is like
- 35:33Nvidia's earnings is tonight, right?
- 35:36People don't know if the stock is going
- 35:38up. Some people are saying it's going to
- 35:39go up. Some people say it's going to do
- 35:41go down.
- 35:42I don't even care.
- 35:44I'm going to do this strategy with with
- 35:47on a back test it has more than a 100%
- 35:50win rate over the last 2 years.
- 35:52And I'm going to do this tonight. What
- 35:54I'm going to do is
- 35:56I'm going to sell a call and put at 225
- 35:59strike which is the current price.
- 36:02And I'm going to buy 20 point outside
- 36:05wing as a hedge.
- 36:08Right so I'm going to sell 225
- 36:12sell 225, buy 205 put and 245 put for
- 36:17protection. This strategy is called iron
- 36:18fly.
- 36:19Now
- 36:21it has 51% chance of profit.
- 36:25And here the max loss is 894.
- 36:30And the credit you are receiving is
- 36:31$1,100.
- 36:33So, now if you tell me, if we do a coin
- 36:35flip where you have 51% chance of
- 36:37winning,
- 36:38and if you lose,
- 36:40you lose $900.
- 36:42If you win, you win $1,100.
- 36:45Is that a good strategy?
- 36:47The You see the edge in the maths. I
- 36:50don't even have to look at the chart to
- 36:52make this trade.
- 36:54I have a mathematical edge in this
- 36:55trade.
- 36:57>> Yeah, it's a it's very different to to
- 37:01to how the majority of retail traders
- 37:03trade. This is not how retail trades.
- 37:05This sounds a bit more like how hedge
- 37:07funds probably trade.
- 37:09>> Yeah, but
- 37:10yeah, a lot of funds trade like this.
- 37:13And And in this case, my strategy is
- 37:15going to be simple.
- 37:17I'm going to open this trade 15 minutes
- 37:19before market close.
- 37:21And tomorrow in the morning, uh, at
- 37:24whatever price the market opens,
- 37:26the first thing I'm going to do is take
- 37:28profits. In the first 5 to 10 minutes,
- 37:30I'm going to take profit, and I'll be
- 37:32out of this trade.
- 37:34May I may not make the full $1,100
- 37:36profit. Maybe my profit in the morning
- 37:38is going to be somewhere close to $400,
- 37:41depending on where the price opens. So,
- 37:44whatever the profit is, I'm going to
- 37:45take it in the first 5 minutes.
- 37:48If I make 50% return in an overnight
- 37:50trade with just 5 minutes of work, I'm
- 37:53thrilled with that.
- 37:54>> Yeah, and so what you need to what you
- 37:55need what you need Nvidia to sit for
- 37:57this to for this to work?
- 37:59>> So, for this to make profit, Nvidia
- 38:01needs to be in this range.
- 38:04So, between 214 to 236.
- 38:08>> Uh, it just needs to sit within that 5
- 38:105% range tomorrow morning by the by
- 38:129:30.
- 38:14>> Yes. So, the market makers are expecting
- 38:17a 5% movement.
- 38:20But historically, Nvidia moves less than
- 38:235% after earnings.
- 38:25So, over the last year, I've been
- 38:26trading this kind of strategy for every
- 38:29every earnings. Have I have 100% win
- 38:31rate on this.
- 38:33>> How did you get into the backtesting
- 38:35element of the research? Is this like
- 38:37Python or
- 38:38AI?
- 38:39>> So, I actually
- 38:40I actually vibe coded my own backtesting
- 38:43engine
- 38:44uh
- 38:45using options data. Uh let me show it to
- 38:47you. So, this is my backtest for Nvidia
- 38:51uh over the last 1 year. I tested a lot
- 38:54of different strategies. If I were to do
- 38:56an iron
- 38:58So, I tested multiple strategies, iron
- 39:01fly and iron condor, targeting different
- 39:03strike prices, different wings.
- 39:06And almost all the combination won four
- 39:08out of four times over the last 1 year.
- 39:12And they each have their average profit.
- 39:15They each have their
- 39:17uh return.
- 39:18So, like for example, if I were to sell
- 39:21an iron fly with 10-point width uh width
- 39:24wings,
- 39:25it makes 43% return on average in just
- 39:28an overnight trade. If I go with
- 39:3020-point wide, it makes 28% return.
- 39:33And if you traded this every time for
- 39:36the last 1 year,
- 39:38with just one contract, total profit
- 39:40would be $1,100.
- 39:42And in this backtest, I'm just opening a
- 39:44trade 15 minutes before market open,
- 39:46taking profit uh in the first 10 minutes
- 39:49at market open.
- 39:51>> Uh it's it's very kind of you to go into
- 39:53this detail and and reveal this kind of
- 39:56uh work that that you're doing. It's
- 39:57very nice of you. And it just shows you
- 39:59like
- 40:00with especially with artificial
- 40:03intelligence these days, you don't need
- 40:05to be able to code. You can You can use
- 40:08platforms and programs to build your own
- 40:10system. It just I mean, I don't know if
- 40:12you agree, Ravish. I do the same thing
- 40:13as you would. It just takes a curious
- 40:15mind. It just takes a little bit of
- 40:17curiosity and and answering some
- 40:19questions to
- 40:21to start getting to this point now.
- 40:24>> Yeah, absolutely. There are also you
- 40:26have to basically uh
- 40:29once you understand the Greeks, it like
- 40:32I said, it is going to open a whole new
- 40:33world. Because then you start to think
- 40:36about things like, "Hey, I can do this."
- 40:38Like when I first learned about data
- 40:40neutral delta neutral,
- 40:42I was obsessed. I was like, "How is that
- 40:44even possible?"
- 40:45That you can make profit without
- 40:48predicting a direction. My mind was
- 40:50blown.
- 40:53>> I think
- 40:54>> And now with AI now with AI earlier I
- 40:57So, I have a technical background.
- 40:59I used to code, do
- 41:01analyze data manually.
- 41:03Now I just you I know I can just write
- 41:05code this thing. I did this in few
- 41:07minutes without having to code my thing.
- 41:10And I can tell AI, "Hey, use this API,
- 41:12get this data
- 41:14and back test these 10 different
- 41:16strategies." And it tested like these
- 41:18seven strategies and all of them are
- 41:21winning.
- 41:21And now I just have to choose, "Okay,
- 41:23which one do I want to go with?"
- 41:25>> I mean, it's just insane how much AI's
- 41:28enabling average people to
- 41:31to have exponential growth, eh? I mean,
- 41:33but the thing is I don't like you've got
- 41:34to be racing with this AI technology
- 41:36because everyone's going to be doing it.
- 41:37So, you've got to be the the one best at
- 41:40it.
- 41:41>> Yeah, I mean, with AI um a lot of people
- 41:44do is go to AI and tell tell it
- 41:46basically, "Hey, dear AI, make me a
- 41:49million dollar strategy. Make no
- 41:50mistake."
- 41:52And that's not how it works.
- 41:54You basically have to give it your core
- 41:57idea and then it can improvise on it.
- 42:00And then it can test the data for you to
- 42:03let you know that, "Hey, it works."
- 42:06Like for example, there is another
- 42:08strategy which is a simple call buying
- 42:10strategy.
- 42:12Uh I also have a video on my channel
- 42:14about it. That strategy has a more than
- 42:1590% win rate.
- 42:17And on that video, you'll see hundreds
- 42:19of comments from people making a lot of
- 42:20money with that strategy.
- 42:22I use AI to test that data. What I did
- 42:25was I downloaded CSV data for um
- 42:29for QQQ stock.
- 42:32And I gave it to ChatGPT. I was like,
- 42:33"Analyze this data. I want to know that
- 42:35if I enter this
- 42:37enter buy this stock
- 42:40when the market drops 1%
- 42:42in the next 3 months, what is the
- 42:44average performance?"
- 42:46And it gave me data that 90% of the time
- 42:49if you buy when the market drops by 1%
- 42:52in the next 6 months, it goes up by 10%.
- 42:55It does not have to stay up there, but
- 42:57it goes and touches 10% level in the
- 43:00next 6 months.
- 43:02And then I created a simple call buying
- 43:04strategy where you buy a leap call with
- 43:061 year expiration
- 43:08and 50% profit target. That is working
- 43:10like amazing.
- 43:11>> That's totally crack-ass. That's totally
- 43:13crazy. I mean, the thing is though like
- 43:15it's so obvious. It's so obvious, but
- 43:17people aren't doing it.
- 43:19Like it's so obvious and it's so easy,
- 43:20but I
- 43:21The thing is right, so I have a question
- 43:22for you. Is everyone going to be
- 43:23millionaires in the future because of
- 43:24AI? Like but can any trader become a
- 43:27millionaire through AI in the next 5
- 43:29years, 6 years? What's your thoughts?
- 43:31>> I think anyone can become a millionaire
- 43:34if they are disciplined to learn and
- 43:37practice and manage the risk. Now,
- 43:39technically if you look at it
- 43:41there are a lot of people in the market.
- 43:43Some are billionaires. There are I
- 43:45recently went to Berkshire Hath Hathaway
- 43:47meeting in Omaha.
- 43:49Like I was dumbfounded that Warren Buff-
- 43:51We here we are talking about
- 43:52millionaires. Warren Buffett has built a
- 43:54trillion-dollar
- 43:56empire.
- 43:57Because he just gave it enough time and
- 43:59he was disciplined to keep it going.
- 44:03And there are a lot of billionaires
- 44:05there.
- 44:05And all of them are running like
- 44:07multi-billion dollar hedge funds, making
- 44:09billions of dollars.
- 44:11The difference between us and them is
- 44:13the skill and discipline.
- 44:15They have more experience, they have
- 44:17more skill, they have more discipline.
- 44:19So, if you can practice these three
- 44:21things,
- 44:22there is unlimited money in the market.
- 44:24You can make a lot of money. I think
- 44:26like even when we are thinking about
- 44:27millionaire,
- 44:28we are thinking small. The opportunity
- 44:31is much bigger.
- 44:32>> I think I feel inspired. I didn't expect
- 44:33that.
- 44:35I feel inspired by what's possible and
- 44:36it
- 44:37it's so it's so true.
- 44:40>> Yeah, I think going to Maha kind of like
- 44:42changed my perspective. Over there, I
- 44:44went to a private conference, which was
- 44:47invite-only. There were a lot of hedge
- 44:50fund managers there. Like Bill Ackman
- 44:52was there, Monish Pabrai was there, uh
- 44:55Guy Spier, a lot of uh big uh hedge fund
- 44:58managers that you hear about like
- 45:00operating at 100 million or
- 45:01multi-billion dollar level.
- 45:03They were in that room where there were
- 45:05like only 100 or so people.
- 45:07And uh going there kind of changed my
- 45:09perspective that there are levels to
- 45:11this game. Right now, we are thinking
- 45:13very small.
- 45:16>> But uh I mean, it's true. These guys
- 45:18like I was reading um I'll let you go
- 45:20back to the the other processes shortly.
- 45:21But I was I was reading a book by uh Ray
- 45:23Dalio. I don't know if you'll know. Ray
- 45:25Dalio is the he he's the CEO was the
- 45:28CEO. He's retired now of uh Bridgewater
- 45:31Capital.
- 45:32So, he's one of the the top hedge funds.
- 45:34And he He's got some books on debt
- 45:36cycles. But he he's made billions and
- 45:37billions and billions having one of the
- 45:38top hedge funds in the world at one
- 45:39point. And what's true what one of the
- 45:42first lines in the book that he said was
- 45:43is I'm not I'm not smart at all. I'm not
- 45:45smart at all.
- 45:47Uh
- 45:48I've made He said I made a lot of money
- 45:49by knowing what to do by
- 45:53uh not by not knowing the majority of
- 45:54things and just being able to work
- 45:56within the constraints of of what I
- 45:57know.
- 45:58And what he did is lot a lot of what
- 46:00you're doing and what I do now as well
- 46:01is he says me memory's terrible. I
- 46:03forget everything all the time. The
- 46:04multi-billionaire hedge fund guy says
- 46:06"My memory's terrible. Can't remember
- 46:07things." So, he just works with a system
- 46:09and it's that process, the repetition,
- 46:12working with a system,
- 46:14and he's reached multi-multi-billions.
- 46:18Just persistence.
- 46:19>> think once you Once you find Once you
- 46:22find an edge, once you find a system
- 46:24that works for you,
- 46:26then you just need to focus on it and
- 46:27keep it on repeat until it starts to uh
- 46:30it stops working. Eventually, like no
- 46:32strategy is going to have an edge
- 46:34forever. Some people do this mistake in
- 46:36backtesting
- 46:37um that they do a backtest for 10 years,
- 46:4020 years.
- 46:41Uh I think that is not wise because a
- 46:45strategy that worked 20 years ago might
- 46:47not be relevant today.
- 46:49It was a completely different market 20
- 46:51years ago. Today, we are in a very
- 46:52different market.
- 46:54So,
- 46:55you need to have a recency bias. Yes, I
- 46:57would like a strategy which is
- 46:58battle-tested for 10 years or more.
- 47:01But, what I want to know is is it
- 47:02working now? Is it working in the last 1
- 47:05or 2 years?
- 47:06So, I will have a recency bias for it,
- 47:08which is why
- 47:09I'm backtesting this strategy for the
- 47:11last 2 years
- 47:13because uh like 5 years ago Nvidia was a
- 47:15different company.
- 47:17Right? So, you need to have a recency
- 47:19bias.
- 47:20And uh you can just then use this data
- 47:24to do it. Now, I know that okay,
- 47:26I have done this strategy enough of the
- 47:28times for on a lot of different stocks.
- 47:31It's not going to work on every stock,
- 47:33but I know all the stocks on which it is
- 47:34going to work.
- 47:36Now, I can do that every quarter.
- 47:40>> But, yeah, but at the same time, it's so
- 47:42important to monitor your data, monitor
- 47:44the the results, the probabilities to
- 47:46make sure that something a trend isn't
- 47:48changing.
- 47:49Um
- 47:50It but it's it's really interesting
- 47:52because the market has a has evolved a
- 47:54lot. And when you're talking about no
- 47:56point checking back 20 years.
- 47:57Most people who invest just I dust color
- 48:00dust cost dollar average. It's like the
- 48:03strategy that everyone does the cost
- 48:04dollar average. But I was thinking I was
- 48:06looking at some charts in the 1930s
- 48:07after the Great Depression. If you
- 48:09dollar cost average in the 1930s, you
- 48:11you would have ended up losing 90% of
- 48:14your money.
- 48:15But then but then also in the in the
- 48:171930s the market would go up 20% in a
- 48:18month. It would have a 20% increase in a
- 48:21single month. It was it was much more
- 48:22volatile. We don't get those moves as
- 48:24much now.
- 48:25>> So we we just saw a move over the last
- 48:28one month where it was close enough to
- 48:30that.
- 48:31>> Uh the Q the Q an index I mean it the Qs
- 48:34>> went up like the Qs went up like 15% in
- 48:37in a month.
- 48:38>> Oh there you go. So maybe maybe things
- 48:40can crash maybe things can crash to 90%
- 48:43on the next crisis. Who knows?
- 48:45But but uh now you're right. The Qs the
- 48:47Qs after the um
- 48:51after the Iran threat. Are you talking
- 48:53about the Iran war threat? It dropped in
- 48:55and with the whole of the AI revolution
- 48:57the Qs have gone like 18%. That's AI
- 48:59though it owns half of the Nasdaq like
- 49:01it doesn't it? It's it's weird it's half
- 49:03of Nasdaq.
- 49:04>> When chat GPT came
- 49:07I bought a leverage ETF
- 49:09called TECL
- 49:11at $20.
- 49:13It's a 3x leverage technology ETF.
- 49:15At that point I was like I do not know
- 49:17which companies are going to be winner.
- 49:20But I think
- 49:21this AI revolution is going to be the
- 49:23biggest revolution in tech we have seen
- 49:26in our lifetime.
- 49:26>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
- 49:28>> So I was like okay I'm going to put
- 49:29money in this leverage ETF 100k
- 49:31invested. I'm willing to lose.
- 49:35That is now close to a million dollars
- 49:36now.
- 49:37That stock that is now at $200.
- 49:42In just like three three four years.
- 49:45>> Like that's such an intelligent thing to
- 49:47do.
- 49:48>> So if you are
- 49:50if you if you put effort in your skill
- 49:53and you have discipline
- 49:55then then and you also need to have
- 49:57risk-taking ability.
- 49:59Now, people say that putting money in
- 50:01S&P safe.
- 50:03Like I showed you my account, my
- 50:05drawdown is lower than S&P.
- 50:09So, if you have lower drawdown than S&P
- 50:11and your returns are like exponentially
- 50:13higher
- 50:14your risk-adjusted returns are through
- 50:16the roof.
- 50:17>> Well, I think what you did with ChatGPT
- 50:20coming out and putting the 100K in the
- 50:22leveraged DTF was a
- 50:25it's an incredibly well-timed smart
- 50:27move. I mean, because it
- 50:29we knew when we saw ChatGPT, it was like
- 50:31nothing we'd ever seen in the world
- 50:33before. We didn't know how how it would
- 50:35advance or how fast, but we I I think
- 50:37when ChatGPT came out, we knew the world
- 50:40had changed forever and it was a matter
- 50:41of time.
- 50:43So,
- 50:44it's interesting. But, do you want to go
- 50:45back to your to the to the second
- 50:47strategy? I keep throwing you off the
- 50:49the PowerPoint, but it's it's
- 50:50interesting to talk to you, so.
- 50:52>> Yeah, let's go to the second strategy.
- 50:54So, now you're going to construct this
- 50:57strategy in a lot of different option
- 50:58structure. In the other strategy that I
- 51:01really like, which I think has a better
- 51:03risk-reward
- 51:05is I call it the theta machine.
- 51:08It's a time spread strategy.
- 51:10In a time spread strategy, what we are
- 51:12going to do is
- 51:14now think let me give you an analogy of
- 51:16like an Airbnb business.
- 51:19Think about this. I rent out an
- 51:20apartment. I'm paying $5,000 a month
- 51:23rent for it. And then I go list it on
- 51:26Airbnb for $500 a night. Maybe I have I
- 51:30sell 20 nights in a month. So, and I
- 51:33have some operational cost. So,
- 51:35basically I'm spending like $7,000 on
- 51:37this apartment all in and I'm pulling in
- 51:40$10,000 and I make $3,000 profit.
- 51:44I do not own the property. I do not have
- 51:46any significant investment in it. The
- 51:48only thing I have is a lease.
- 51:50Right? And I can earn a monthly income
- 51:53from it.
- 51:54We can do the same thing with options.
- 51:56Technically, if you wanted to do that
- 51:58with Airbnb, it's not profitable in
- 51:59today's time.
- 52:01But it is very lucrative and very
- 52:03profitable with options.
- 52:06So, what I'm going to do is
- 52:09uh
- 52:10So, there are a couple different types
- 52:12of strategies. One is calendar spread
- 52:14and one is diagonal spread.
- 52:16So, I really love calendar spreads. This
- 52:18is one of my best performing strategy.
- 52:21So, let's say
- 52:22I think S&P right now is trading at
- 52:25$740.
- 52:27I think over the next
- 52:29um
- 52:29few weeks it can go higher.
- 52:31Let's say I think that in the next 3
- 52:34weeks
- 52:35it can go higher. So, I'm going to go
- 52:37with
- 52:37Let's do it on Qs.
- 52:40So, okay, let's try try it on Qs. So, I
- 52:43think in the next 3 weeks Qs can go a
- 52:45little higher. I don't know how much
- 52:48higher,
- 52:49but I know maybe it is going to be
- 52:50higher than today.
- 52:52So, that means my time period is going
- 52:54to be
- 52:55I'm going to
- 52:57buy an option for 18 June and sell an
- 53:00option for 12 June.
- 53:02So, the way it works is
- 53:04we are going to buy a longer term option
- 53:07and we are going to sell a shorter term
- 53:09option against it. The term structure
- 53:11can vary depending on your trade
- 53:13outlook.
- 53:15So, the way it works is
- 53:17when you have buy an option, you are
- 53:19paying daily theta on it. Think of it
- 53:21like a daily rent.
- 53:23And when you sell an option, you are
- 53:24earning that daily rent on it.
- 53:26Now, theta is not linear. The way it
- 53:29works is that options which are expiring
- 53:32in near term
- 53:34are going to have higher theta decay
- 53:36versus options which are expiring in
- 53:38longer term.
- 53:39So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to
- 53:42sell a short-term option which is
- 53:44represented here in the red line.
- 53:47>> Yeah.
- 53:48>> And then I'm going to buy a long-term
- 53:49option which is represented in green
- 53:52line.
- 53:52Now the theta decay on the short-term
- 53:54option is going to be fast.
- 53:57And the theta decay on long-term option
- 53:59is going to be slower. So when we start
- 54:02there is like this gap between
- 54:04differential between their premiums.
- 54:06As the time passes, you see this gap
- 54:09grows.
- 54:10Because your near-term option is growing
- 54:12at a faster rate.
- 54:14As this gap grows, this is our profit.
- 54:18This differential is our profit. This is
- 54:19where our edge comes from. So as this
- 54:22gap is you we go through the time, the
- 54:24gap is growing, the profit goes up.
- 54:26That's how this strategy works.
- 54:28So and we can model it again using
- 54:31option strategy and see how exactly it's
- 54:33going to work. Now
- 54:35I do not know where the price is going
- 54:38to land, but I can use the Greeks to
- 54:41guide me for it. So what I will go is I
- 54:44will sell my short option at 20 delta.
- 54:48So 20 delta is going to be somewhere
- 54:50around
- 54:51$740.
- 54:53So this is at 23 delta. I'll go with it.
- 54:56So I'm going to sell a 740 call
- 54:59uh for June 12 expiry. And for the back
- 55:03week I'm going to buy 740 call at the
- 55:05same price.
- 55:09Now
- 55:10the way this it is going to work is I'm
- 55:12going to earn theta premium for it. Plus
- 55:15I have a direction. This is a bullish
- 55:17trade.
- 55:18In this trade we want the market to go
- 55:20to 740 strike.
- 55:23Now this says that there is 23 delta. So
- 55:26that means technically there is 23%
- 55:28chance of that happening.
- 55:30And uh
- 55:32and the price here uh the chance of
- 55:35profit here is 29%.
- 55:38So, it is still higher than 23 because
- 55:40we are getting theta premium for it.
- 55:43Now, if the price goes up slowly into
- 55:45this
- 55:46So, if the price goes up higher like
- 55:48this
- 55:49then in this trade we can make like well
- 55:51over 300% profit. In this trade our max
- 55:54loss is just $162. So, it is a very
- 55:57cheap and low-risk trade to put on.
- 55:59And the upside can be $618.
- 56:04So, I can make like more than 300%
- 56:06profit in this kind of trade.
- 56:08But, when I get into this trade
- 56:11I have to wait till here, till
- 56:13expiration to hit that bull's eye.
- 56:15But, I'm not going to be waiting till
- 56:17there because there are chances that
- 56:19market can go up and then come back
- 56:21down.
- 56:22Right? So, if it goes into 20, 30, 40,
- 56:2650% profit in a week
- 56:28I'm going to book my profit.
- 56:30And then I'm going to wait for another
- 56:31pullback and make this trade. So, let's
- 56:34say if someone made a trade like this
- 56:37just yesterday.
- 56:39Yesterday this option spread was trading
- 56:41at $100.
- 56:43Today it's $164. So, it's up 64% in just
- 56:461 day.
- 56:48So, with a trade like this we can have
- 56:51asymmetrical risk reward.
- 56:53And if you're taking profit early
- 56:56you can have a higher win rate.
- 56:59And uh
- 57:01sometimes if you want to wait for the
- 57:02maximum peak profit, you can also do
- 57:04that. I have had trades where I've made
- 57:06200%, 300% profit.
- 57:09Or if you want uh something with higher
- 57:12probability, you can reduce your strike
- 57:14price to 30 delta.
- 57:17So, 730 is going to be about 30 delta.
- 57:20And now we will have higher probability.
- 57:22Risk reward is slightly worse now. Now,
- 57:24this is
- 57:26um
- 57:27$194 max loss.
- 57:30Max profit $600. Still, it can be a
- 57:32multi-bagger trade.
- 57:34And all I need is the stock to go up a
- 57:36little bit. I can book profit at any
- 57:38point in this zone.
- 57:40>> So, just just make sure I understand
- 57:42this cuz this is a something I've never
- 57:44seen before. See, you're buying the 730
- 57:47call
- 57:48and then you're also selling the 730
- 57:50call, but the the call that you're
- 57:52selling
- 57:53you're you're selling earlier on because
- 57:56you want
- 57:58the better theta, right? And the one
- 58:00that you're buying is further out. So,
- 58:01you make money on the theta as as one
- 58:03thing.
- 58:05>> Yes.
- 58:05>> Um and then you also want the the stock
- 58:07to go
- 58:09because when the stock was towards the
- 58:10level when the stock goes towards 730,
- 58:13does it it doesn't really make
- 58:14Does it matter because one calls
- 58:16canceling out the other one? So, you're
- 58:18only making the theta, no?
- 58:20>> So, in this trade, you can make this
- 58:22trade a bullish trade, a bearish trade,
- 58:25or even a neutral trade. It all depends
- 58:27on where your strike price is. Strike
- 58:30price is basically your price target.
- 58:32If the price goes to your price target,
- 58:35that is where you make maximum profit.
- 58:37>> Yeah.
- 58:38>> So, you have bullish direction to this
- 58:40trade.
- 58:41Now, if I bring these strikes down
- 58:46So, if I bring these strikes down to
- 58:49$710
- 58:51Now, this becomes a delta neutral trade.
- 58:54Now, in this case, I make profit if the
- 58:57stock trades in this range.
- 58:59So, now I need the stock to stay flat.
- 59:03>> But But if you buy a call and sell a
- 59:06call at the same price, does that not
- 59:07cancel cancel it all out? Because
- 59:11you just done answered options.
- 59:14>> So, like I explained in the previous
- 59:16illustration there is a difference
- 59:18between deltas and thetas for the option
- 59:21at the same strike. For example, let's
- 59:24go back to the 730 example.
- 59:26So, on the option that we are selling,
- 59:29uh we are getting 32 delta.
- 59:32>> Yeah.
- 59:33>> So, but we are short selling this
- 59:34option. So, we are short 32 delta.
- 59:37>> Yeah.
- 59:37>> And uh we are theta positive here. So,
- 59:40we are earning $31 theta from this every
- 59:43day.
- 59:44>> Yeah.
- 59:45>> And the option that we are buying has
- 59:47higher delta.
- 59:48>> Mhm.
- 59:49>> Slightly higher. So, this is 35 delta.
- 59:52And here we are paying $29 theta. So, we
- 59:55can go here and this tool will show you
- 59:57aggregate graphics, um aggregate
- 1:00:00metrics. My total delta after the full
- 1:00:04spread is 2.6.
- 1:00:07My theta is $2.
- 1:00:09So, that means on a trade which is
- 1:00:11costing me just a little over $100,
- 1:00:14I'm going to earn $2 a day, which is
- 1:00:16basically like close to 2% a day.
- 1:00:18>> Yeah.
- 1:00:19>> And as we go closer to the expiration,
- 1:00:21this is going to increase.
- 1:00:23Now, 2% a day it does not sounds a lot,
- 1:00:26but if the price works your way and you
- 1:00:29are earning theta, the theta is going to
- 1:00:31accelerate.
- 1:00:32So, very high probability that I can
- 1:00:35make somewhere between 30 to 50% profit
- 1:00:37in the next 1 to 2 weeks.
- 1:00:40>> Yeah, that makes that that makes sense.
- 1:00:42And then
- 1:00:45you're making money on the delta as well
- 1:00:46because they've got different deltas
- 1:00:47based on the time that you put them on.
- 1:00:49So, you're making money on the delta.
- 1:00:51That that that calculation between the
- 1:00:53two deltas and the two thetas, you're
- 1:00:54making the difference
- 1:00:56as it goes.
- 1:00:57And the more time you leave it, the
- 1:00:58better because you're making money on
- 1:01:00the theta ultimately.
- 1:01:02>> Yeah. Yeah, I actually want the market
- 1:01:04to move slower, right? Typically, an
- 1:01:06option buyer wants the market to move
- 1:01:07fast for them to make profit.
- 1:01:10Here, I like it to move slowly. I want
- 1:01:12it want a slow grind grind.
- 1:01:15And then I can make profit.
- 1:01:18And if I make faster, if the market
- 1:01:20moves faster, let's say over the next
- 1:01:23Nvidia has blockbuster earnings
- 1:01:24tomorrow, the stock goes up to like 7:30
- 1:01:27over the next week.
- 1:01:28I'm still happy with 30 to 40% profit in
- 1:01:30a week. Then I can close this trade and
- 1:01:33open my next trade.
- 1:01:35So and if I'm neutral on the market, I
- 1:01:38can just do it at the current price. And
- 1:01:41then this becomes a delta neutral trade.
- 1:01:45And another thing, if I'm bearish on the
- 1:01:48market,
- 1:01:50I can do a put calendar. Here is I can
- 1:01:52go and sell 680 put, which is at 21
- 1:01:56delta.
- 1:01:57Now if the if now let's say Nvidia has
- 1:01:59bad earnings tomorrow, market drops,
- 1:02:03then this trade can this trade has
- 1:02:05potential to make 446% profit.
- 1:02:09So yeah, it has a low probability. The
- 1:02:12probability is 35%.
- 1:02:14But the upside is 500%.
- 1:02:17>> Yeah.
- 1:02:19So So when you on the earlier example,
- 1:02:21when you're talking about the Qs and you
- 1:02:22were put them in the 740s,
- 1:02:25so you're you're win a lot of money if
- 1:02:27it goes to the end of the theater or you
- 1:02:30if you hold the trade for a longer time,
- 1:02:32you make more money. If it reaches the
- 1:02:34740s, you make more money. What happens
- 1:02:37if it just doesn't move or it goes the
- 1:02:39wrong direction? Is that is that a
- 1:02:41that's a loss?
- 1:02:42>> So if it does not moves, uh so in this
- 1:02:46case,
- 1:02:47it all depends on what strike price we
- 1:02:49choose. If I want to be slightly neutral
- 1:02:52to bullish, let's say I want a trade
- 1:02:53which is slightly bullish,
- 1:02:55but gives me some uh downside
- 1:02:58protection. I love downside protection.
- 1:03:00I like to make profit if the stock moves
- 1:03:03uh up, but if the stock comes down, I
- 1:03:05would love some downside protection.
- 1:03:07Then I can make a trade like this.
- 1:03:09Uh where
- 1:03:11>> [clears throat]
- 1:03:12>> let's say I can make a trade at 715
- 1:03:14strike.
- 1:03:15It is slightly bullish. If market goes
- 1:03:17up, I make profit. If the market comes
- 1:03:19down,
- 1:03:21then my break even is 698.
- 1:03:24Currently, it's trading at 711.
- 1:03:27So, I have about 12 to 13 points
- 1:03:30downside protection
- 1:03:32against a drop.
- 1:03:34>> And how did you get that? Is that
- 1:03:35because you get the theta? Does the
- 1:03:36theta give you the downside protection?
- 1:03:38>> Yes.
- 1:03:38>> That's how you get the
- 1:03:39>> Right.
- 1:03:40Yes, now my theta is minimal. Now my
- 1:03:42delta is minimal, less than one.
- 1:03:45But my theta is higher.
- 1:03:47>> Yeah.
- 1:03:48>> And I can even do this trade with a
- 1:03:49shorter duration. Let's say I think I
- 1:03:51want to make a trade with just one week
- 1:03:53duration.
- 1:03:54I can make a trade like this
- 1:03:57where
- 1:03:58if the market stays flat, I make profit.
- 1:04:01If the market goes up, I make profit. If
- 1:04:03the market comes down a little bit,
- 1:04:05I make profit as long as it trades in
- 1:04:07this 701 to 730 range.
- 1:04:11>> Just to make sure make sure I got this.
- 1:04:12So, a lot of people might say, "I think
- 1:04:15that the QQQ is going to go to 740 and
- 1:04:18it's currently at 720."
- 1:04:20They'll put the call option on
- 1:04:22for 740, and then they'll just panic if
- 1:04:25it doesn't move towards 740 because
- 1:04:27every day they're losing money.
- 1:04:29But the way you do it
- 1:04:31means that you get the actual theta.
- 1:04:33That means even if the stock doesn't do
- 1:04:34anything, I'm making theta right now.
- 1:04:36So, you get paid to wait a bit more.
- 1:04:38>> Exactly. We are getting paid while the
- 1:04:41price moves our way.
- 1:04:46>> I don't know why more people don't do
- 1:04:47this.
- 1:04:48>> Because people don't know about it.
- 1:04:52>> [laughter]
- 1:04:54>> It's fantastic. I absolutely love this.
- 1:04:56It's it's because it's it's not rocket
- 1:04:58science. I mean, it's just putting one
- 1:05:00more call
- 1:05:01on onto the option that you are going to
- 1:05:03put anyway.
- 1:05:05>> Yeah, I would
- 1:05:08I mean, this is why my account has such
- 1:05:10low drawdown because I use strategies
- 1:05:12like this.
- 1:05:14And if there is another there are levels
- 1:05:16to it. There is next level is I can buy
- 1:05:18both call and put calendar
- 1:05:20and make profit both ways.
- 1:05:23I don't even have to predict the market
- 1:05:25direction.
- 1:05:27>> Yeah, you can literally be paid to be
- 1:05:28wrong. You can you can be paid to be
- 1:05:30wrong or you can be paid when the stock
- 1:05:32does nothing.
- 1:05:33You can just sit there and make money.
- 1:05:35>> Yeah, exactly. And in a trade like this,
- 1:05:37if you are right, you can make a lot of
- 1:05:39money.
- 1:05:40If you're wrong, your loss is actually
- 1:05:42pretty small. You can do these kind of
- 1:05:44trades with as little as $100 to $200.
- 1:05:47So, even if you have a small account,
- 1:05:50you should never buy call. This is the
- 1:05:52way to go.
- 1:05:54>> That's crazy. But and obviously the only
- 1:05:57way you lose is if you get it completely
- 1:05:58wrong, which when you're buying the
- 1:06:00larger cops larger cap stocks on a on a
- 1:06:02bullish market, it's
- 1:06:04if you buy in decent companies in a
- 1:06:05bullish market, it's not often that
- 1:06:07you're going to get a the stock will
- 1:06:09completely the wrong direction. And if
- 1:06:10it does, you just buy more.
- 1:06:12>> And you can the great thing is
- 1:06:14you can do this kind of trade for any
- 1:06:16trade duration.
- 1:06:18If you think you need 3 months, you can
- 1:06:21do a 3 months long trade.
- 1:06:23And
- 1:06:24and you just use the delta. Just sell
- 1:06:26between just buy between 20 to 30 delta.
- 1:06:30There is very high probability that
- 1:06:31eventually the stock price is going to
- 1:06:33go and touch it.
- 1:06:36>> And and say if you buy it a month out,
- 1:06:37what's the what's the spread between the
- 1:06:39options there? If if you're buying a
- 1:06:41month out, you buy like
- 1:06:43uh is it like or you can tell me you'd
- 1:06:45buy say it's
- 1:06:47Google whatever 400 calls
- 1:06:49and you want it to reach 400 in a month.
- 1:06:52How would you position those?
- 1:06:54The buy and the sell call.
- 1:06:56>> Right. So, if I think I want to buy
- 1:06:58Google, I can make a trade like this,
- 1:07:00which is 4 weeks out.
- 1:07:03And um
- 1:07:05I will sell
- 1:07:06a 400 call for June 18
- 1:07:10and buy a 400 call for the back month.
- 1:07:13And in this case, my max loss is just
- 1:07:15175.
- 1:07:17Max profit can be 575.
- 1:07:20Huge asymmetric risk reward.
- 1:07:22And even if it stays flat,
- 1:07:26I can still make profit. So, let's zoom
- 1:07:28in a little bit. So, let's say I make
- 1:07:29this trade and the stock does not moves
- 1:07:32at all, it stays flat for the whole
- 1:07:34month, you can still make close to 50%
- 1:07:36profit here.
- 1:07:38>> So, just to get this right, you buy you
- 1:07:39buy the call saying June and then you
- 1:07:41you'd sell you'd sell the call
- 1:07:44or it's the other way around. You'd sell
- 1:07:46the call in June and you'd buy the other
- 1:07:47one in July. Is it like that?
- 1:07:49Or is it the other way around?
- 1:07:50>> Yeah. Well, yeah. So, we sell a short
- 1:07:53term. So, let me go back to this graphic
- 1:07:55again.
- 1:07:57>> Uh you sell a short term
- 1:07:58>> Yeah, I link short term and we are
- 1:08:00buying long term.
- 1:08:01And we make profit from the difference.
- 1:08:04>> And is there ever a point where you just
- 1:08:07let the short term
- 1:08:09expire and then just hold hold the long
- 1:08:11term to keep going or you always close
- 1:08:12together?
- 1:08:14>> So, usually I don't. Usually, I close it
- 1:08:17for profit before expiration
- 1:08:19uh because in that case um
- 1:08:22uh
- 1:08:24because usually when that happens
- 1:08:26um
- 1:08:28this is uh okay, I close it for uh
- 1:08:30because if the short leg expires, then
- 1:08:33I'm just holding a long call.
- 1:08:35Then I'm paying theta for it.
- 1:08:37I don't want to pay theta.
- 1:08:39So, which is why I will close it before
- 1:08:41expiration, but sometimes I see my
- 1:08:44trades
- 1:08:45which I was happy to take close for 50%
- 1:08:48or something profit
- 1:08:49after my short call expired,
- 1:08:52long call went parabolic.
- 1:08:54And it went up 300% 400%. So, there are
- 1:08:57scenarios like that.
- 1:08:59But, that's not the game I'm playing.
- 1:09:02I want consistent returns. I'm
- 1:09:04compounding week over week.
- 1:09:07My account is compounding at 8 to 15% a
- 1:09:09month.
- 1:09:10And with that kind of return, with such
- 1:09:13low drawdown,
- 1:09:14in 2-3 years it's going to it can go to
- 1:09:17eight figures even.
- 1:09:18>> The This is genius for me. It's totally
- 1:09:21genius. Um And the best things that I
- 1:09:24generally like genius strategies are
- 1:09:26that they're so simple
- 1:09:28and they're so simple and beautiful to
- 1:09:30execute, but it's nothing nothing too
- 1:09:32complicated, is it? It's not too
- 1:09:34complicated. I mean, I've understood
- 1:09:36everything you've said in in a 50-minute
- 1:09:37session.
- 1:09:39>> Yeah, exactly. Because um
- 1:09:42because the way when people try to learn
- 1:09:44it is
- 1:09:45they start they get intimidated by a lot
- 1:09:48of things because nobody really breaks
- 1:09:50down in such simple terms.
- 1:09:52Uh they talk about Greeks and all those
- 1:09:55things and uh charting and technical
- 1:09:57analysis. It was intimidating to me also
- 1:10:00initially.
- 1:10:01But what I figured was that instead of
- 1:10:04learning everything like a reading a
- 1:10:06full textbook,
- 1:10:08focus on a couple of strategies and
- 1:10:10master them.
- 1:10:12And after some experiences, everything
- 1:10:14starts to make sense to you. Then it
- 1:10:16becomes second nature.
- 1:10:18Options is all about the probability.
- 1:10:20The reason why a lot of traders lose,
- 1:10:23even if you give them a profitable
- 1:10:25strategy,
- 1:10:26they don't understand the expected
- 1:10:28value. They don't understand what the
- 1:10:31risk is, what the reward is, what's the
- 1:10:33win rate, how does that affect their
- 1:10:35overall profit and loss.
- 1:10:37With options, you get it up front,
- 1:10:39right? You get up front.
- 1:10:41That this much profit it can make. This
- 1:10:43is your maximum side potential. This is
- 1:10:46your chance of profit.
- 1:10:48It is all baked in the data.
- 1:10:50And with tools like this, it makes it
- 1:10:52very easy to understand.
- 1:10:54So, I did not learn options by reading a
- 1:10:57textbook or by watching a lot of videos.
- 1:10:59Yeah, I did watch a lot of videos on
- 1:11:01YouTube on Theta profits uh
- 1:11:03on Tastytrade channel, and I learned a
- 1:11:06lot of strategies from there.
- 1:11:07But, you basically learn by doing. It's
- 1:11:10math.
- 1:11:11You do not learn math by theory. You
- 1:11:13learn it by doing.
- 1:11:15So, you have to put it in practice. I
- 1:11:17would spend I used to spend a lot of
- 1:11:18time. I still do.
- 1:11:21Going into this tool and modeling
- 1:11:22different trade ideas and see how they
- 1:11:24work.
- 1:11:26And there's another great thing in this
- 1:11:27tool. Once I make this trade, I can just
- 1:11:29save this trade.
- 1:11:30And this is like a paper trade now. Now,
- 1:11:33it is going to track it in my account on
- 1:11:35how this trade works.
- 1:11:37And you can even go and see its chart
- 1:11:39and see how it's working.
- 1:11:42So, let's say you bought this call
- 1:11:44calendar on Google 1 week ago
- 1:11:47when it was trading at a higher price.
- 1:11:49Even though the stock price has come
- 1:11:50down, you can see
- 1:11:53that the options has not lost any value.
- 1:11:56Stock price came down,
- 1:11:58but you you're still flat on your trade.
- 1:12:02This is why it works so well.
- 1:12:04>> To just to close it out, I guess do you
- 1:12:06have any
- 1:12:07final thoughts about how someone else
- 1:12:09can get started and and
- 1:12:12they not they don't have to You've heard
- 1:12:13of Black-Scholes formula and the the big
- 1:12:15the big black book of Black-Scholes
- 1:12:17formula and the book They don't need to
- 1:12:18read that.
- 1:12:20>> I think that is what makes it
- 1:12:22intimidating for people because they
- 1:12:24hear about all these complicated
- 1:12:26formulas. But, with tools like this, you
- 1:12:28don't have to
- 1:12:30go deep into it.
- 1:12:31You can start with just focusing on
- 1:12:33delta and theta
- 1:12:35and start to make some paper trades.
- 1:12:37Basically, understand how it works.
- 1:12:40And you will learn by experience.
- 1:12:44>> That's been incredible. I think this has
- 1:12:46been one of the the episode where I've
- 1:12:48learned the most and and had my eyes
- 1:12:50open. So, really really appreciate you
- 1:12:52delivering all of this this knowledge
- 1:12:54and information. It's so valuable.
- 1:12:57Thank you for giving back, and thank you
- 1:12:59for being transparent. Do you have any
- 1:13:00final thoughts or anything else you want
- 1:13:02to close in on?
- 1:13:03>> Um yeah, I would say
- 1:13:06uh one of the biggest problems that I
- 1:13:08see with a lot of traders I work with,
- 1:13:11they learn a new strategy, and they are
- 1:13:14excited they are thrilled with it with
- 1:13:15it they are very enthusiastic about it,
- 1:13:18and then they start to make big trader
- 1:13:20big trades right off the bat, and they
- 1:13:22lose money, and they think that the
- 1:13:23strategy does not work. They hop onto
- 1:13:26another strategy, do the same thing,
- 1:13:28which is why a lot of traders can spend
- 1:13:30years chasing different strategies and
- 1:13:32losing money.
- 1:13:34But what you need to do is trade small,
- 1:13:37and give it time.
- 1:13:39I don't If I learn a strategy,
- 1:13:41I don't mind trading it for 3 months or
- 1:13:44even 6 months with just one contract,
- 1:13:46risking couple hundred dollars on every
- 1:13:48trade.
- 1:13:49Because if it works for me over that
- 1:13:51period, I will make 20 to 50 trades with
- 1:13:54that strategy. If I'm winning most of
- 1:13:55them,
- 1:13:57that gives me a good understanding of
- 1:13:58yes, this is profitable,
- 1:14:01and then I have rest of my life to use
- 1:14:03that strategy, and I can compound
- 1:14:05compound it.
- 1:14:06You don't think of it in a way that I
- 1:14:08learned this, I need to make all the
- 1:14:10money today.
- 1:14:11Start by practicing it. Take it slow.
- 1:14:14You We people People spend 4 years going
- 1:14:17to college, spend six figures in
- 1:14:19tuition,
- 1:14:20and then they do internship, then they
- 1:14:22work at a job for few years. It takes
- 1:14:24them 10 years to build a career where
- 1:14:26they are at a point where they feel that
- 1:14:28they've achieved some level of success,
- 1:14:30but with trading, people think that they
- 1:14:33should do it in a week.
- 1:14:35It's It does not work that way. So, you
- 1:14:37have to develop your skill and be
- 1:14:39patient. It's not going to take 10
- 1:14:41years. Most people, if you have the
- 1:14:43right direction, you can learn it in 3
- 1:14:45to 6 months. And I think if you put in
- 1:14:48that level of effort and discipline, it
- 1:14:50can be life-changing.
- 1:14:51>> Where can people find you if they've got
- 1:14:53any questions?
- 1:14:54>> Yeah, you can reach out to me on I have
- 1:14:55a YouTube channel called Options with
- 1:14:57Ravish, and I also have an Instagram.
- 1:15:01It's called Hey Ravish. You can search
- 1:15:03or find the link in the description.
- 1:15:06>> Thank you so much for your time, Ravish.
- 1:15:07It was absolutely amazing, and you've
- 1:15:10delivered tremendous knowledge that I'm
- 1:15:12sure is going to change a lot of
- 1:15:13people's lives.
- 1:15:15>> Thank you, Stephen. It was a pleasure
- 1:15:17speaking with you.
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