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THE COMPUTER IS SHOWING WE'RE HEADING INTO WW3! -Martin Armstrong — Transcript

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0:00The computer basically is showing we're
0:03heading into World War II.
0:16Welcome to the Silver Trade Insider. I'm
0:18your host, Dr. John Lindau. Joining us
0:21today is renowned economic forecaster
0:23Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics.
0:26Thanks so much for joining us today,
0:27Martin.
0:29Well, thank you for inviting me.
0:32>> Well, let's get started right off uh
0:34with precious metals here, Martin. Um
0:36your economic confidence model has been
0:38uh remarkably accurate on major turning
0:40points um after really it's been a
0:43brutal six-month selloff in gold and
0:45silver that saw gold correct uh looking
0:48at the numbers here around 30% from 5600
0:51um to around 3,900 and change. Silver
0:53dropped even more, 55% from around 121
0:57down to 55 bucks. Um, but the precious
1:00metals have finally started to break out
1:02to the upside a bit here. Gold traded
1:04within a few dollars of 45,500
1:05yesterday. Um, silver has risen above
1:0866. Um, so what's your take here,
1:10Martin? Are we witnessing a major
1:11turning point in the gold and silver
1:13markets or is this kind of simply a
1:15bounce off of majorly oversold levels?
1:18It still may just be a bounce in
1:21initially.
1:22Uh but it looks as though the
1:25um the more of the major long-term
1:30shift is probably the first quarter 27.
1:34Uh and then you're looking at a more or
1:37less a bull market into about 2032.
1:41um
1:44a lot of the problem you know why we
1:46were forecasting would come back down.
1:49the computer is pretty much correct on
1:51on this cor you know forecasting this
1:55you know correction
1:58um
1:59for a couple of things that uh most
2:04people don't realize but I mean we have
2:06offices you know from China to Dubai so
2:09we got boots on the ground ourselves and
2:13I can tell you that Iran was
2:17sending more missiles and drones to
2:18Dubai than they did Israel.
2:21Um why? Because when Switzerland had
2:26confiscated just the assets of Oh, you
2:29knew Putin. So they confiscated their
2:31money. Um if you look at the so-called
2:36300 billion of assets of Russia they
2:38have frozen. Uh it's not all government
2:41money. It's yachts and houses and things
2:44of this nature, you know. Um, so that's
2:48really violated international law
2:51>> and so a lot of the money
2:54that was in Switzerland, they shot
2:56themselves in the head and the foot
2:58simultaneously.
2:59It moved to Dubai and uh Singapore,
3:03>> right?
3:04>> So it
3:05>> I kind of maintained that that really
3:07looking back was
3:11that was the trigger for this uh move in
3:14gold. Um cuz when we confiscated
3:18Russia's uh um reserve assets, that's
3:20what set off uh the big move in gold.
3:23>> Yeah, it's um
3:26gold is more of a hedge it against u
3:30government rather than inflation.
3:33Um
3:35I mean gold basically went from 1980
3:37down to 1999 for 19 years. The national
3:41debt went up. I mean it the question is
3:44really
3:47um when you get into uh issues of
3:51geopolitics but
3:54um who's going to survive
3:57and this is the correction right now for
4:00gold is that people became accustomed to
4:03the Iran war Ukraine okay fine they're
4:06nothing they're not going to turn into
4:08anything
4:10um And
4:12you know, the smarter money is beginning
4:14to realize neither one is going to be
4:17settled. Uh, and
4:21Iran is honestly playing 3D checkers,
4:26uh, 3D chess, and we're still playing
4:27checkers. Um,
4:31they attack Dubai
4:35because that's the financial hub.
4:39Uh they built a a$ 30 billion dollar AI
4:43system there. I mean everybody's in
4:45town. Um
4:48I mean Amazon's [clears throat] there,
4:50Open AI, etc. When they attacked that,
4:55they didn't destroy it, but they did
4:58take it offline for about a week and we
5:02couldn't even get send money to our
5:04employees there. Uh the banking system
5:07went down. Um so
5:11you did have a lot of people um
5:15selling gold physical stuff you know you
5:18know just basically to make ends meet
5:20things of that nature. Um and
5:25uh although the straits are hard most
5:28people focus on
5:36that would not be like the 60 or 70s and
5:40that where they did the shut down energy
5:43and we were gas lines and things of that
5:46nature that were here. We're now mostly
5:48self-sufficient.
5:50So this is [clears throat] something why
5:55I say they're pay playing 3D
5:59uh when during co oil went down to $6.50
6:0250 cents.
6:04The Gulf States
6:06um couldn't survive. So they borrowed
6:10extensively.
6:12So shutting this trade of Harus
6:16um means they can't sell oil. If they
6:19can't sell oil, they default on their
6:22loans and that ends up going into a
6:24banking crisis leads right to London. So
6:28it's it's far more complicated.
6:31Um,
6:34and it definitely affects Europe more
6:37and uh and Asia. I can tell you we have
6:41offices also in Thailand. They couldn't
6:44even get gasoline for a motorbike. Um,
6:47and then
6:49on top of that, the worst shortage was
6:52diesel.
6:54Without diesel, they couldn't send ships
6:56out to go fishing.
6:58So then it affects the the food supply.
7:01So that's why I said this is far more
7:03complicated than what the news headlines
7:06basically show.
7:09Um
7:10so people have become
7:13you know I guess
7:17uh
7:18ignoring this thinking it's not an issue
7:22um and it will just be resolved one way
7:26or another. But that's just not true. We
7:29don't see either conflict
7:32um with a solution.
7:36Uh Iran
7:38versus Israel is more of a a religious
7:42type thing. Uh it's it's not like all
7:46right, you know, we'll negotiate this.
7:48I'll give you boardwalk for Park Place
7:50like we're playing Monopoly or
7:51something, you know?
7:52>> Right. Iran, the IRGC officials, there's
7:57been uh numerous statements and things
7:59that they now believe that this war will
8:01bring in their end times madi like which
8:04is like the Islamic antichrist. So
8:06they're happy to sacrifice their lives
8:08and their country if it means that uh
8:11their theorized madi will arrive.
8:14it it look it you've got those both
8:19sides if you look at some of the
8:21statements in Netanyahu it's the same
8:23thing
8:25um so this is more of a religious war
8:30um which I don't see it changing is my
8:32god against your god you know um so
8:38the other thing that people are ignoring
8:42is that yes you Iran has proxies.
8:46Okay. The one they're pay not paying
8:48attention to is the proxies they have in
8:52Iraq which are nearly back to full, you
8:57know, strength again. They make their
9:00own um missiles, their own drones, etc.
9:05Um they, you know, they started
9:08attacking American bases. They've sent
9:10the drones into the Gulf States. Um,
9:14and
9:17before officially this war began,
9:20they've killed about 600 Americans.
9:23Um,
9:25so they're just as formidable as Hisba
9:28that everybody hears about, but you
9:31haven't heard about what's going on in
9:33Iraq yet. Um, and so, you know, it's
9:38expanding and and this is what they want
9:42to do. they have succeeded in dividing
9:44the Middle East. This, you know, Gulf
9:48Council, it's it's nonsense. Um, you
9:52have UAE
9:55and Bahrain uh siding with the United
9:58States and Israel. Um, the rest of them
10:02do not. You just had uh a Middle East
10:06version of NATO uh formed with Saudi
10:09Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
10:12Um, Turkey has the biggest military.
10:16Uh, Saudi has the deep pockets to fund
10:20it. And Pakistan has the nukes.
10:23Um,
10:25and
10:27you know, Saudi Arabia is more
10:30um
10:32looking for to plate
10:36um Iran.
10:38um whereas UAE, you know, would rather
10:42see it destroyed. Uh so it's um this is
10:47much more complicated.
10:49Uh, and
10:51it's why I say we may have a bounce
10:54right now, but that's typically a market
10:57reaction.
11:00um to create the more sustained bull
11:04market that we see probably from 27 on
11:08is when people begin to to come to
11:12realize what I'm saying here is much
11:15more serious
11:17um and not going to be um
11:21you know just oh yeah okay fine it will
11:23resolve itself. Uh Iran's number one
11:28goal is to push the United States out of
11:31the Middle East. Um and
11:37honestly they they
11:40as part of their 3D chess game here they
11:45are very much aware of politics.
11:51you know, [clears throat] they released
11:54the hostages
11:56uh after they made sure that Reagan won
11:59and Jimmy Carter lost the very next day.
12:02That was it. So, they were using the
12:05hostages, you know, for over 400 days to
12:08deliberately influence the elections in
12:11the United States.
12:13All right.
12:15You've got Netanyahu going to elections
12:18October 27th.
12:21maybe before, but it's got to be by the
12:2327th. Um,
12:26so they are also again using
12:31this time to stall it out,
12:35okay, to they know that Trump will be in
12:39trouble in the midterms
12:42um by making sure he doesn't have a deal
12:46uh dragging it out. The same thing with
12:49Netanyahu. Uh his opposition
12:52is saying, "What have you accomplished?
12:55>> You said you wanted a regime change the
12:57nukes. Um what's a victory now? Just
13:02opening the straight to Harm, which was
13:04open before. Um they've accomplished
13:07absolutely nothing."
13:09Um so that's being thrown at his face.
13:13uh in Israel.
13:14>> And now there's suggestions that most of
13:16their nuclear material was hidden under
13:18Pickaxe Mountain and hasn't been totally
13:20destroyed. So we don't even have
13:21confirmation that we've totally
13:23destroyed their nuclear capabilities,
13:25which it is interesting. Just in this
13:26past week, Iran has actually come out
13:29and confirmed that their whole goal was
13:30to build a nuke. Um so at least this
13:33time they were actually attempting to
13:34build a nuke. But it strikes me that if
13:36they're now admitting it, they might
13:38have already achieved it.
13:42That's the rumor going around. It's not
13:45confirmed,
13:47but I can tell you there have been very
13:49high level meetings about it. Um, that
13:55they may have a nuke and it's ready. Um,
13:59and there have been scrambling both in
14:02uh Washington considering it as well as
14:05in Tel Aviv. Um,
14:09so
14:11who knows? Is it are they doing this
14:14before the elections to influence it
14:16even more? Is it the truth? Um,
14:21that's why I say I can't, you know,
14:23confirm it.
14:24>> Um, but
14:27look, they are playing 3D chess. We just
14:30have to understand that. and they are
14:32trying to clearly influence that these
14:35two elections. Um,
14:39from their perspective, it's you
14:42overthrow Netanyahu and maybe that
14:45works. Um, he's been vehemently
14:50personally against
14:52uh Iran at least the late 90s,
14:56constantly saying they're going to have
14:58a nuke within 3 weeks. you know, the
14:59three weeks is perpetual, you know, but
15:02um and
15:05um
15:07they know Trump is vulnerable. Um
15:10there's a risk of that um the House is
15:14going to flip. Uh maybe not the Senate,
15:17but um
15:19our computer showed this was going to be
15:21a very very tight 5050 type election and
15:24it seems to be shaping up that way.
15:29Well, while everyone is focused on Iran
15:31and the Straight of Hormuz right now, uh
15:33let's talk about something um
15:34potentially even more significant that
15:37not too many people are paying attention
15:39to at all right now, and that's Ukraine
15:40and Russia. Um you kind of briefly
15:42touched on it, but the situation is
15:44nearing a critical point ahead of
15:46Russia's uh September elections.
15:50Um,
15:53look, I've known a number of these uh,
15:58neocons for a long time. Um, I grew up
16:03in the Philadelphia area. I can tell you
16:05Netanyahu went to grade school and high
16:07school in Philadelphia. All right. He
16:10hung out with the Crystals. Um,
16:14[clears throat] I know. Um,
16:19He, you know, the son spoke at one of
16:22our uh conferences back in the 90s. So I
16:26know these people. His father, Irving
16:29Crystal, is the one that started the
16:31whole Neocon movement. And this is who
16:32Netanyahu hung out with. Okay? So I know
16:36where they come from and what they
16:38think, etc. And I've had arguments back
16:40and forth on. U they're very
16:44singleminded
16:46people.
16:47They only see what's in front of their
16:49nose and there's no strategic plan for
16:52afterwards. For example, you can look at
16:56u Tony Blair's apology on YouTube. U he
17:01says, "We thought we were referring to
17:02people from, you know, in Iraq from
17:05Sudan. We had no idea we were subjecting
17:07him to more sectarian violence." This is
17:10this is what
17:14my concern is.
17:17Uh, and Netanyahu
17:20um played the same game. Take out the
17:23Ayatollah, we win. Has never worked.
17:27Okay, they're trying that in
17:30uh with Russia.
17:33And Silinski
17:35has openly said all these attacks he's
17:38pulling off inside Russia are no longer
17:41at the borders or really to, you know,
17:43anything.
17:44Oh, I'm taking the war to Russia. But he
17:47has openly said he's trying to influence
17:49his September elections.
17:52And
17:54this is where the neocons are always
17:57wrong. Uh, and I've heard this for
18:01decades. You know, they really think
18:04they go in, they overthrow Putin because
18:06he's such an evil person, and the people
18:09will rise up, cheer, and give them a
18:11ticker tape parade. I mean, it's the
18:13same thing they said about Iraq, the
18:15same thing they said about, you know,
18:17Iran. It's It's like a broken record.
18:19>> It's dangerous. Uh because you might end
18:21up with Demetri Medvidev.
18:24>> Exactly. I mean, you
18:26>> who's ready to drop a nukes right now on
18:28everyone, America, Ukraine. [laughter]
18:32>> Um, [clears throat]
18:34you know, I've heard the excuse, well,
18:37they would never use nukes because they
18:39know it would blow back on them.
18:42I really I mean [clears throat]
18:45I've spoken in the military. I mean if
18:47if the shoe is on the other foot and
18:50Washington was about to fall, they're
18:53going to push the button.
18:55I'm sorry. You know, they're not going
18:57to say, "Oh, okay, fine. You win. I
18:59quit. Uh I'll ride into the sunset." I
19:02mean, it's not going to happen. All
19:04right. Um so Zilinski
19:08openly coming out. He's doing all these
19:10attacks to influence the election
19:13and
19:16my sources are already saying he's
19:18supporting the hawks. Now, either
19:22he is completely brain dead
19:26or this is deliberate to escalate the
19:28war uh because
19:32Putin is probably the most responsible
19:34guy there. He knows where this goes. and
19:38he had previously said nukes are off the
19:41table. But then you have Medaf and the
19:43people behind him, you know, and they're
19:46much more like Lindsey Graham who would
19:48have invaded New York, you know, I mean,
19:51Canada to get three Russians, you know,
19:53>> and it kind of seems to me, sorry to
19:54interrupt you, but it kind of seems to
19:55me that Putin um kind of similar to
19:57Trump with um Iran, Putin thought he was
20:00going to be able to almost go in and out
20:02of Ukraine in a weekend and take back
20:04the dumbbass and that was going to be
20:05it. So, I don't think he I honestly
20:07don't even think he starts the war if he
20:10knew ahead of time what it was going to
20:12turn into, but he thought he could just
20:15go in and out, take the don, and that
20:16would be it is kind of how I look at. I
20:19could be wrong, but um
20:21>> well, I just did a report on this and um
20:28what finally made him cross the border.
20:32Zalinski stood up and it's in the daily
20:40four, he stands up and he says, "Ukraine
20:43is going to rearm with nuclear weapons."
20:48Putin put that in his speech. I've got
20:50no choice. We got to go in.
20:52>> Mhm.
20:53>> Um
20:55the Don Boss, I mean, look, we've had
20:57the staff there in Kiev and in Don, so I
21:02know both sides. I can tell you they
21:04wouldn't even talk to each other. Um the
21:07hatred there is kind of like Iran,
21:09Israel sort of thing. Um [clears throat]
21:13I've tried to talk to to them in Kiev
21:16and they don't want to hear it, but they
21:18just been brainwashed uh in um in school
21:23that Russians, you know, killed seven
21:26million of us, stole all the food. And I
21:28said, "Do you realize that Stalin was
21:30from Georgia?" And the guy that actually
21:33orchestrated and suggested taking the
21:36food from Ukraine
21:38[clears throat] was Jewish born in Kiev,
21:41okay? Not Russia. He didn't have to get
21:44back at you people because you killed
21:46all the Jews for Hitler. Um but they
21:50don't want to hear that. Um and so you
21:52can't talk reason to them. We had a
21:56conference in in Athens and the one from
21:58Kiev wouldn't fly back the quickest way
22:01because the plane merely stopped in
22:04Moscow. Um, so I mean I've seen this
22:08hatred. It it again I don't see it
22:12uh
22:15as solvable.
22:17uh you you had the mince agreement
22:21and that was to allow the Donbas to vote
22:24and separate ethnically the same as you
22:27Yugoslavia did but broke up according to
22:30ethnic regions. Um, and then you had
22:34Merkel come out
22:36and actually said when she was asked, I
22:40think it was by Dar Spiegel, um, why
22:44didn't you enforce the the men's
22:46agreement? And she said, well, we never
22:48intended to. We were just buying time
22:52for Ukraine to build an army.
22:54>> Right? So
22:56that shows that the EU and NATO has
23:01wanted this war,
23:02>> right? They intentionally deceived
23:04Russia and tried to stall Putin until
23:07they could be ready for him.
23:08>> Yeah, exactly. Um so my concern here
23:14um Putin has been the definition.
23:21You're going to look at now
23:29they've changed it to we are at war with
23:32Ukraine.
23:35Um
23:36and from Medv and the rest of that puts
23:39nukes on the table.
23:42Uh, and what I've heard is that
23:45[clears throat] from some of these guys,
23:48they to end the war, they should just
23:50nuke Kiev
23:52like the US did to Hiroshima
23:55and that will end it. Um,
23:59who the hell knows?
24:01Um, like I say, these people don't think
24:04long term strategically.
24:06Um,
24:09you know, there's no cons consideration.
24:12Well, if you took out the Ayatollah in
24:14Iran, what comes next?
24:17Oh, we'll worry about that when we get
24:18there. You know, that's that's their
24:21extent of strategy. Um,
24:24>> yeah, it sounds like their their plan
24:25was a hamad and that fell through and
24:28they had no uh backup plan for the day
24:30after.
24:31>> They have never do. Um,
24:36>> I mean, I've spoke to Bill Crystal a
24:39long time ago. I mean, back in the 90s
24:41and they were, you know, talking about
24:44taking out all the the dictators,
24:47um, Gaddafi, you know, uh,
24:51uh, Saddam, etc., you know,
24:56and then you had Wesley Clark. You can
24:57look that up on
25:00YouTube. In 2007, he he came out and he
25:03said when he went to the Pentagon after
25:069/11, he was told they were going to go
25:09into seven countries, it's the same
25:11thing.
25:13Um that they were going to go into Iraq
25:16and then from Iraq they go to Tyrron. Um
25:20so I mean
25:22>> although I guess we also um from reports
25:25anyways um Trump expected we armed the
25:28Kurds and Trump expected the Kurds to
25:29launch a ground invasion and that didn't
25:31happen. So
25:32>> exactly it's always the same.
25:37Whoever makes up these
25:40um strategies
25:43um they don't know their ass from a hole
25:46in the ground. That's all I could say.
25:49uh they've never been right.
25:51>> If both of these conflicts
25:54continue to be protracted, both Ukraine,
25:56Russia, and um the religious war with um
26:00Iran and Israel and America, what do
26:04your computers uh say? How will the
26:06Treasury markets be affected? Are we
26:08going to still see yields uh continue to
26:10rise and 10 year breakout past five, you
26:13think? And how will that affect gold and
26:15silver? Do you think uh we have kind of
26:17a deflationary crash first?
26:21>> Yeah. When you get into war, um
26:26the big thing that I think um you've got
26:30three sovereign debt crisis on the
26:33table. You got Japan,
26:36um Europe, and the Middle East,
26:40uh with the Gulf States.
26:43Um, [clears throat]
26:45I mean, if you just look at the numbers,
26:47you'd have to say Japan's going to be
26:49the first to go. Uh, this is why,
26:53uh,
26:55you know, people were saying, "Oh, the
26:56Fed stepped in with Japan to protect the
26:58Treasury market." No. Um, we've got
27:02clients, I can tell you the bulk of US
27:04treasuries held in Japan are by
27:06corporates hedging against their own
27:09government. Um,
27:13what is really at stake is that it's
27:17kind of like 2010 when Greece went down.
27:21The traders immediately say, "Who's
27:23next?" Oh, Spain. Okay. I mean, if
27:28California went bust, the traders are
27:29going to go, "Who's just like that?" Oh,
27:32Illinois. That's, you know, this is the
27:34way a trading room works. Okay. um
27:39if Japan goes, you're going to start a
27:42contagion
27:44and they're going to then say, "Who's
27:46next? What other countries can we hit?"
27:50Um Europe is extremely vulnerable.
27:53Um,
27:55as you know, I was called in in creating
27:58the euro and I warned them this is going
28:01to fail
28:03because I said if you want to compete
28:06with a dollar, you have to consolidate
28:09the debt.
28:10And Herman Cole at the time um didn't
28:15allow the German people to vote to join
28:17the euro and he took Germany into it.
28:23um undemocratically
28:26uh and he assumed that the German people
28:29would object if um to consolidating the
28:32debt they'd be bailing out Greece and
28:34Italy etc. So he said no consolidation.
28:39I warned them this is going to fail and
28:43they said they told me we just have to
28:47get the euro through. We'll worry about
28:49the debt later
28:51they never do. All right. Now
28:55from a trader perspective
28:58this is why the US market is the
29:01strongest. Why the Dow has been making
29:04new highs when everybody was calling for
29:06crashes for the last year.
29:09[clears throat] Because the US is the
29:11only one on the table.
29:13All right. I can pick up the phone and
29:15say, "Buy me$10 billion worth of
29:16treasuries." No problem.
29:19I can't with Europe. I still got to make
29:22the same decision as if the euro didn't
29:24exist. Do I want Germany? Do I want
29:27France? Do I want Italy? Then you look
29:30at how trading goes in Europe. You know,
29:33if they're bearish Italy, they'll short
29:37Italy and buy Germany.
29:39All right. Um the peripheral spreads.
29:43So the real problem here
29:46uh is that Europe is very vulnerable to
29:50a contagion still.
29:53And um Italy's
29:57economic growth is collapsed to 0.5%.
30:02Germany, which was the cornerstone of
30:05the EU, 0.8.
30:09They've destroyed their their car
30:12industry,
30:13um all for climate change.
30:16uh whatever decision
30:19could have come from Brussels has been
30:21absolutely brain dead. Uh it has
30:25destroyed their economy, you know,
30:27unbelievable. Um
30:31I bought a a BMW i8,
30:35one of the best cars ever had. It's a
30:36hybrid.
30:38They stopped it. Oh, because it's it
30:40still has gas,
30:42you know.
30:43Um [clears throat]
30:46so it's this is
30:49Europe now you start
30:53for last couple of years been warning
30:56that my sources were saying
31:00[clears throat]
31:01wanted to send troops into Ukraine. He
31:04also wanted to invade Russia.
31:09Why? because Russia is technically the
31:12richest country in the world from a
31:13natural resource perspective.
31:16Uh still in the ground, but you know,
31:19it's there. Um
31:23he was pitching that uh Russia's weak
31:28because they can't take all of Ukraine.
31:30Of course, he never Putin never intended
31:32to. Um
31:35u but he was using that as the excuse.
31:39He then
31:41said,
31:43um, most people don't realize, but
31:46France exited NATO.
31:49So, their nukes are their own. They're
31:51not part of NATO. They rejoin NATO
31:55superficially. Uh, but that's just for
31:57an agreements of troops, etc. That's got
32:00nothing to do with the nukes. Um, and
32:03Mcronone has come out and said uh that
32:08they no longer need the United States.
32:12France can provide the nuclear umbrella
32:14to protect Europe. He's even offered to
32:17put nukes on uh German planes.
32:22Um he's they call him the petite
32:26Napoleon because it's it's the same
32:28thing of wanting France to lead and
32:31rise. Um I mean look I've been
32:36you know in meetings in France many many
32:38times. Uh I was a keynote speaker for
32:41the central bank conference that was in
32:44Paris. Uh, and so I had to sit at the
32:48head table and all all the heads of the
32:50central banks were there. You know, you
32:53got a table for 10 and a table speaking
32:55English because nobody else knew the
32:58other guy's language and but the one
33:01language everybody knew was English and
33:04the French host next to me, he was
33:06livid. This is Paris. We should be
33:08speaking French, you know. Um,
33:11but
33:14you know, Mcronone hopped on a plane and
33:17went to see Jing and before Trump
33:21and he the message he delivered
33:25as we also have offices in China. Um,
33:30was that [clears throat]
33:32uh Europe will no longer defend any war
33:36outside of their own territory. So that
33:39cut off the Middle East, but he also
33:42said we will not participate to defend
33:45Taiwan.
33:48So when Trump went there,
33:51um Jane put that on the table. Where do
33:54you stand?
33:57They didn't release everything really
34:00was spoken. But when Trump left, look at
34:03what he said. I suggest that chip
34:06companies move to America.
34:09All right. So, um,
34:12>> yeah. So, what I took out of that
34:13meeting was Trump agreed not to protect
34:16Taiwan and she agreed to not protect
34:19Iran, but only one side is likely to
34:22fulfill that handshake [snorts]
34:25>> because China is still sending a plane
34:27loads of weapons to Iran.
34:29>> Yeah. And
34:31Iran is important
34:33because you they built a railroad there
34:37um for energy.
34:39Um
34:41and China is a major importer. So that
34:45becomes their national security issue.
34:48How do they fund their military um and
34:52supply it if energy is cut off?
34:56Um,
34:58so they're in a different position than
35:00the United States.
35:02Uh, so I I
35:05think, you know, they will continue to
35:07provide arms to Iran. Um,
35:13and again, you have these
35:17even assuming Zillinsky and Netanyahu
35:20were correct and they can both destroy
35:23their opponent. What the hell comes
35:26next?
35:28You know, I mean, it's there's no You
35:31really think you can One of their major,
35:34you know, um, generals came out and
35:38actually said
35:44You really think they're not going to
35:46push the button? They're just going to
35:49you're gonna sit there and allow you to
35:51destroy Russia?
35:54I mean, I I don't, you know, I I can't
35:57wrap my head around this logic,
35:59>> right?
36:00>> Um it it just makes no sense. And so
36:06what
36:08our computer's been very famous in on
36:11predicting wars.
36:13Um
36:15and what I'll say is that you know when
36:18I wrote the program I had no idea be
36:22forecasting wars. I was just looking for
36:25a hedging program for metals. All right.
36:28Um, but we were doing foreign exchange
36:32and I got called in initially when back
36:35in 74 when the uh Franklin National Bank
36:39went down. Um, they couldn't call
36:42anybody from Harvard or something. It
36:44just the currency just started trading
36:46in 72.
36:48Um, there weren't hedge strategies, none
36:52of this. Um, and the bank went down
36:57basically on a 10% move, the Italian
36:59LRA, and that's the bank that actually
37:01started Mastercard.
37:03Um, so after that, any currency I got
37:05called in to get the guy that did that
37:07one, you know. Um,
37:11but early
37:13I was called in by the central bank of
37:15Lebanon
37:17and they found a ledger with all the
37:19prices written back to 19th century
37:22asked us we could do a model. I said
37:24fine, we put it in. I thought there was
37:27something wrong with the data because
37:30the computer came out and said their
37:31country was going to fall apart in eight
37:32days. I thought that was absurd. I
37:36called them and I said, 'Look, there's
37:37something's got to be wrong with this.
37:39And very calmly, they said, 'Well, what
37:41currency does it recommend?
37:44And I thought, that's a strange way to
37:45respond. I said, it says the Swiss
37:48Frank. Eight days later, the civil war
37:51began.
37:53And I've encountered this numerous
37:55times. Um, I had a client in in
37:59Saudi Arabia who was one of the biggest
38:02shippers. And he calls and said, 'What
38:04do you think gold's going to do
38:05tomorrow? Iraq's going to start
38:06attacking shipping tomorrow. I said, you
38:08tell me a war's going to start. Yeah,
38:10yeah, yeah. What do you think gold's
38:11going to do? Um, and by 98, I did a
38:16conference in in London.
38:19I said, Russia's going to collapse. I
38:21give it about 30 days. That was the
38:23long-term capital management
38:26um crisis and everything. and London
38:28Financial Times, I didn't realize had
38:31snuck in the back room and they put on
38:32the front page, Armstrong says Russia is
38:34going to collapse. We're going to have
38:35all these nukes running around. Um,
38:39and what I've learned over the years
38:42is that
38:45Lebanon or they didn't call me for that
38:48forecast. They called me for the timing.
38:51They already saw the money moving.
38:54All right. The same thing when I look at
38:58how we forecast Russia's collapse. We
39:01saw a h 100red billion going in but 150
39:03coming out.
39:05Obviously something's going on here. It
39:08can't tell me you're moving the money
39:10versus somebody else. It just says the
39:12money's moving.
39:14And when you get a sharp
39:17um change in capital flows like that,
39:22um
39:24if you know you're going to do, you
39:26know, attack some country, you move your
39:28money. Um the computer showed uh the
39:33October 7th uh attack by Hamas in
39:36Israel. All the defense stocks started
39:38moving a week in advance.
39:40The SEC used our stuff uh after 911
39:44looking for whoever bought puts on the
39:47airlines a few days in advance.
39:49Um the terrorists were had figured this
39:53out and they would short a whatever it
39:56was a market airline whatever. Um
40:02knowing that this is what they're going
40:04to do and they made money from that to
40:06fund the next one. Um,
40:10so I mean this is
40:13the computer basically is showing we're
40:15heading into World War II, but it's more
40:18like brush fires. Um, they're not all
40:22necessarily connected,
40:24but
40:26um, Iran they're using
40:30as a proxy war against the United States
40:32to drain us of our missiles and
40:35supplies, etc. like we were using
40:38Ukraine um against Russia.
40:42So then you have Russia going, you've
40:45got the Middle East with Iran
40:47and then as long as we are all
40:50distracted,
40:52that leaves China free to do what it
40:55wants.
40:56And then you have North Korea, this is
40:58the best time we can take the South. Um
41:02so that's what the computer's showing.
41:04It's more like what I would call brush
41:06fires rather than we're just facing
41:09Hitler, one major, you know, entity
41:12against another. Uh it's not the same
41:14thing as World War I or two. This is
41:17this is substantially different. Um and
41:20they're not necessar, you know,
41:22connected
41:23um with some super brain deciding all
41:26these things to you go in here and I'll
41:28go in there, you know, sort of thing.
41:30But um
41:33these
41:35look as I've said I've known a number of
41:38these neocons for years and
41:42all I can say is they had their back up
41:46against when it was communism.
41:50U you know Kruef said you know we will
41:53bury you. Communism is going to defeat
41:55capitalism. Um, and when communism
41:58collapsed all by itself because it was
42:01economically inefficient,
42:04um,
42:06they, you know, I think they were just
42:08pissed off it, you know, capitulated by
42:11itself and they didn't get to shoot
42:13anybody. Um,
42:15because it it made no sense. Um, China
42:19became capitalist and so did Russia. So,
42:22what is it that we're fighting? the fact
42:25that you used to be communist. Um,
42:31not really entirely sure.
42:34Um, and I've tried to explain that the
42:37the model
42:39that lasted the most was Rome.
42:42Um,
42:44when you had a free market, somebody in
42:47France could make a vase and sell it to
42:49somebody in Syria.
42:51uh it was more beneficial to be in the
42:53group than outside.
42:56And when you start putting on sanctions
42:58and things of this nature, you're
43:01deliberately destroying the world
43:02economy.
43:04And
43:06these neocons
43:08um are really brain dead. I mean, they
43:11put sanctions on Cuba in 1960. They're
43:14still there.
43:16So once you put these sanctions on
43:18Russia, they're not going to be lifted.
43:21Um, you've permanently
43:25separated.
43:27Even if you look at the US Civil War,
43:30uh, Abraham Lincoln said, "Any money you
43:33owe in the north to any company in the
43:37south, you give it to us.
43:40You weren't allowed to pay your bills to
43:42anybody that was on the other side. So
43:44they split the economy in half. Um
43:50and
43:52that's where we stand and economically
43:56on a global scale.
43:58Um once you you cut that in biblical
44:02cord,
44:04you know, you want free trade between
44:06Russia and the United States. Why?
44:09Because then the Russian company there
44:11is going to say, "What are you crazy?
44:13you start a war and I'm out of business.
44:16Um,
44:18and so it's a check and balance against
44:21their own governments.
44:23Uh,
44:24>> so Martin, if your computer is showing
44:26that we're heading into World War II,
44:28um, what does it say about the medals?
44:29Is there what do uh what's the takeaway
44:32for viewers? Um, gold and silver protect
44:35you from that or what's your computer
44:37saying? Yeah,
44:38>> definitely.
44:39>> What they are is more of a hedge against
44:42government. It's it's u not so much the
44:46inflation stuff.
44:48It's um
44:55do I who do I trust? You're looking at a
44:57bull market from 27 all the way into
44:59about you know 2032.
45:02Um
45:04then you'll get a monetary reset. uh
45:07you're probably going to see the EU fail
45:11uh may break up by 29. Um
45:16you know, this is
45:19Europe is is
45:23basically made the same mistake as as
45:26the communists did. Um, and everybody I
45:30know from Eastern Europe that has come
45:32to United States and they see these
45:36things starting to happen here, they
45:38said, "This is exactly what I fled from,
45:40>> right?"
45:41>> Um, so
45:44Europe is is 10 times worse. You know,
45:47you know, there are, you know, you got
45:49Britain's got more people in jail for
45:51what they wrote on Facebook than Russia
45:53does. Um, so at what point are you
45:57saying you're you're free in democracy,
46:00we're against dictators, so you tend to
46:02be more of a dictator than the other
46:04side. Um, so this is is a problem. I
46:09mean, and I've dealt with governments
46:12for a long time and
46:16they only act in their own
46:17self-interest.
46:19And
46:22I'm not the first to see that. You can
46:24look at Plato and a recorded debate
46:27between Socrates and Thrasamakis
46:30and Thrasamakis says justice is the same
46:33no matter what form of government. It's
46:35just that [clears throat] the
46:36self-interest of those in power. Uh and
46:40it's very true. I mean nothing
46:42[clears throat] we were supposed to be
46:44you know free societies now oh free
46:46speech you know that that supporting
46:49that's hate speech
46:50>> right? You know, it's
46:52so you you eliminate that. We saw it in
46:55CO, you know,
46:58the constitution says
47:01the government shall not.
47:04Okay. So, they pick up the phone and
47:06they tell Facebook, "Well, you do it."
47:08>> All right.
47:10>> And that's, you know,
47:12>> employers, you do it.
47:14>> Yeah. It's intimidation.
47:17>> Grocery stores, you do it.
47:20I met an executive VP at one of the the
47:25major newspapers in New York and he told
47:28me how this works.
47:31He said the [clears throat] government
47:32will call and says they have a favor.
47:36Kill this story, spin it this way,
47:39whatever. [clears throat]
47:41If you do not, they don't go after the
47:45newspaper. They come after you. Oh, did
47:48you pay your taxes? You know, I mean,
47:51they can bankrupt you in in just, you
47:53know, audits. Um,
47:57and an illustration of that
48:00is when Snowden
48:04was talking to a journalist in
48:06California
48:07and he had sent a message to his
48:10buddies, I'm working on the really big
48:12story. Suddenly he drives straight head
48:16on into a tree and is killed. Um that's
48:20why Snowden went and who did he who
48:24released the information? It was the
48:26Guardian in London.
48:29Okay. Because they can't call up the
48:31journalist over there. We're going to
48:32put you in jail if you do this. Um they
48:35silenced
48:37really, you know, media free speech in
48:40the United States that way.
48:44Uh, and
48:47like I said, we've seen it with CO. Uh,
48:50that was probably the the one right in
48:53front of everybody's face. But when it
48:56comes to geopolitics or um anything that
49:00they feel would embarrass them um
49:06or go against their policy,
49:09you're not going to see a lot of it. Um,
49:12>> right.
49:14Well, Martin, uh, before we let you go,
49:16can you give the viewers a bit more
49:18information about all the services, uh,
49:20you and info you offer over at Armstrong
49:22Economics?
49:24>> Um, well, they can go to
49:25armstrongeconomics.com.
49:28Uh, it's free. It's open. You don't have
49:32to put emails in. We don't send out
49:34emails to say you want to buy swamp land
49:36in Florida or something. Um
49:40we ha you know we we have opened up our
49:45um AI computer so that anybody can now
49:50access it used to be just institutions.
49:52Um the computer is the only fully
49:57functioning AI system in the world that
50:00has got nearly a 50-year track record.
50:03Uh it the computer writes reports on
50:06over a thousand instruments worldwide
50:08every day. Um so it's there's no human
50:14opinions involved or something like that
50:16because you know we've all been right or
50:18wrong on an opinion basis. Uh that's
50:20part of humanity. Um so the computer is
50:24more um objective.
50:28Um, that's why it's not even blocked in
50:31China or Russia because everybody knows
50:34it's straight up. It's not going to be
50:36by the way on page three in a footnote
50:38overthrow your government thing, you
50:40know. Um,
50:42so it's it's, you know, it's
50:49institutions have always used us
50:52is because you've got an international
50:54portfolio.
50:57If you want to invest in India, well, we
51:00need an analysis from there. That guy is
51:02going to be completely different from
51:03somebody that's investing in Spain. Um,
51:07so the computer once you understand the
51:09system, it's the same system globally.
51:12There aren't enough analysts in the
51:14world to write all these reports. Um, so
51:17that's pretty much what it really does.
51:20It it covers everything. um metals, you
51:25know, um cryptos,
51:27bond markets globally, um stock markets
51:31everywhere, um all the industrial
51:34metals. So, I mean, that's mainly what
51:37we're trying to do is to show that we
51:39are all connected
51:41and there's a way for the future. And
51:46my personal hope is that, you know,
51:49after 2032, maybe they'll look at this
51:51and say, "Okay, maybe this is the way we
51:54restructure it." That's that's my end
51:58goal, I would say.
52:00>> All right. So, you can check that out at
52:01armstrongeconomics.com.
52:02Correct.
52:04>> Yes.
52:06>> All right. Well, Martin, uh, thanks for
52:08the discussion on geopolitics. Uh,
52:11definitely a interesting time to be
52:13alive. as the Chinese uh proverb curse
52:16goes, right? May you live in interesting
52:18times.
52:19>> Um just pay attention.
52:23I think the the the big wild card is is
52:26more Ukraine.
52:28um
52:30uh
52:32for exactly what Zillinski is trying to
52:34do uh to escalate that
52:37>> [clears throat]
52:37>> um more so than what you see in Iran is
52:40more like spreading it more like a
52:42cancer type thing, but um he's actually
52:45trying to change the the board game
52:48here.
52:50>> All right. will keep an eye on Russia
52:52and Ukraine in the fall and not just get
52:54distracted by everything uh coming out
52:56about Iran and the straight off our muzz
52:58which is obviously a big uh important
53:01has big importance for uh geopolitics
53:03and um the economy as well but we'll
53:07take your advice and definitely keep an
53:08eye on what's happening in Ukraine and
53:11Russia as well. Yeah, because look, even
53:14the one thing we didn't talk about was
53:15energy,
53:17>> right?
53:17>> You know, Zillinski is attacking the oil
53:19fields. There are shortages now in
53:22Russia. That impacts
53:24>> Russia's needing to import energy now.
53:27>> Yeah, exactly.
53:28>> Imagine Russia needing to import energy.
53:30That's
53:32>> pretty,
53:34you know, that can basically push energy
53:37up, um, which is what we're expecting.
53:42And
53:44I can tell you from a central bank
53:45standpoint, they have no tools.
53:49Um, you raise interest rates to fight
53:51inflation does not
53:54uh it only accelerates a cost push
53:56inflation. It's not going to make oil
53:59prices just go down because you raise
54:00interest rates. Um,
54:03so they have nothing to fight this.
54:07They've been neutered basically. So,
54:12so it's an interesting world definitely
54:14that we live in
54:16>> that it is. All right. Well, thanks so
54:19much uh for joining us uh Martin. It's
54:21been great to have you on.
54:22>> Well, thank you for inviting me and I
54:24hope uh it opens some eyes.
54:28>> I'm sure you have. It's been a great
54:29discussion. All right. So, for Dr. John
54:32Lindtow and renowned economic forecaster
54:34Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics.
54:37Thanks for tuning in to the Silver Trade
54:38Insider.
54:51>> [music]

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