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The Complete Guide to the YouTube Algorithm — Transcript

by vidIQ · 4,309 words · 662 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Why did your video get 300 views when a
  2. 0:03channel just like yours did a similar
  3. 0:04video and got 30,000 views? Why is it
  4. 0:07that a channel with 50,000 subscribers
  5. 0:08can outperform a channel with 5 million
  6. 0:10subscribers? Why would a new video do
  7. 0:12nothing and then 3 days later suddenly
  8. 0:14explode in views? Well, the answer to
  9. 0:16all three of those questions is the
  10. 0:17same. The algorithm isn't doing what you
  11. 0:20think it's doing. And that gap between
  12. 0:21what you think is happening and what's
  13. 0:23actually happening is costing you views,
  14. 0:25subscribers, and growth every single
  15. 0:27day. So, today we're going to close that
  16. 0:28gap and explain the YouTube algorithm at
  17. 0:30three different levels: beginner,
  18. 0:32intermediate, and expert. Each one is
  19. 0:34going to go deeper than the last, and by
  20. 0:36the end of this video, you'll have a
  21. 0:37better understanding of this system than
  22. 0:39most creators on all of YouTube. So,
  23. 0:41let's start with the basics. And this
  24. 0:42time we're not going to water it down
  25. 0:43like we have in the past to save time.
  26. 0:45The YouTube algorithm is not one thing.
  27. 0:46It's a collection of systems working
  28. 0:48together, each one with one job: find
  29. 0:51the right video for the right person at
  30. 0:53the right moment. That's it. And to do
  31. 0:55that, it asks two questions about every
  32. 0:57single video on the platform. Question
  33. 0:58one, [music] will this person click?
  34. 1:00Question two, if they click, will they
  35. 1:03actually watch? Those two questions map
  36. 1:05to two numbers in your YouTube Studio
  37. 1:07dashboard right now. Click-through rate,
  38. 1:09which is CTR, and average view duration,
  39. 1:12which is AVD. If you're a small channel
  40. 1:14trying to track as few numbers as
  41. 1:15possible, make it these two numbers. But
  42. 1:17here's what most beginners get wrong.
  43. 1:19They think the algorithm promotes their
  44. 1:20video to an audience. It doesn't.
  45. 1:23YouTube's own engineers have said this
  46. 1:24directly. The algorithm doesn't push a
  47. 1:27videos to people. It finds videos for
  48. 1:30people. But even then, before the
  49. 1:31YouTube algorithm can find the right
  50. 1:32person for your video, it needs to
  51. 1:34understand what your video is actually
  52. 1:36about. Todd Beaupre, YouTube's head of
  53. 1:38discovery, confirmed this publicly.
  54. 1:39Knowing a video is about home workouts
  55. 1:41or Minecraft isn't enough. There's only
  56. 1:43so much the algorithm can get from the
  57. 1:45title and description alone. It needs
  58. 1:47richer signals, consistency of language,
  59. 1:49clarity of framing, and real audience
  60. 1:52behavior to back it up. So, it reads
  61. 1:53your title, your description, your
  62. 1:55chapters, it transcribes your audio, it
  63. 1:57watches who clicked, who stayed, who
  64. 1:59left. All of that becomes one signal
  65. 2:01that answers one question: who is this
  66. 2:03video for? And this is why some of the
  67. 2:05fastest growing channels in YouTube are
  68. 2:06built on radical simplicity. Let's take
  69. 2:08a look at the Organic Chemistry Tutor.
  70. 2:10The subject matter is genuinely hard:
  71. 2:12calculus, physics, organic chemistry.
  72. 2:14But every title is completely plain. How
  73. 2:16to find the domain of a function. How to
  74. 2:18solve quadratic equations. No metaphors,
  75. 2:21no mystery, just a direct description of
  76. 2:22exactly what the video teaches. The
  77. 2:24algorithm never has to guess who it's
  78. 2:25for. The result is over 10.5 million
  79. 2:28subscribers in one of the most
  80. 2:29technically demanding niches on the
  81. 2:31platform. But math is scary, so let's
  82. 2:32also take a look at Daily Dose of
  83. 2:33Internet. The channel itself is a
  84. 2:35complete signal. A quick dose of
  85. 2:37interesting internet content every day.
  86. 2:39The title, content, channel name, it's
  87. 2:42all one consistent message. YouTube
  88. 2:44never had to guess. That clarity
  89. 2:46compounded across hundreds of videos
  90. 2:47drives over a million views on every
  91. 2:49single upload. Contrast that with
  92. 2:51unclear signals. A creator titles a
  93. 2:53video, "This changed everything for me."
  94. 2:55Life hack, shocked face in the
  95. 2:56thumbnail, 3 minutes of backstory before
  96. 2:58we get to the actual content. The
  97. 2:59algorithm genuinely can't tell if this
  98. 3:01is a vlog, a finance video, a lifestyle
  99. 3:03channel. And a confused algorithm
  100. 3:05doesn't like to take risks. This is why
  101. 3:07niche clarity matters so much early on.
  102. 3:09Every off-topic video essentially resets
  103. 3:11the picture YouTube is building of your
  104. 3:13audience. But every consistent video
  105. 3:15sharpens it. And we don't have exact
  106. 3:17numbers, but presumably 10 consistent
  107. 3:19pieces of content in a row starts to
  108. 3:21tell a story. Make it 50 and YouTube has
  109. 3:23a reliable model of your channel. Who
  110. 3:26watches? What do they care about? How do
  111. 3:28they behave? Now, once people click, you
  112. 3:30have to deliver. And this is where watch
  113. 3:32time and retention come in, but a lot of
  114. 3:33beginners confuse the two. Watch time is
  115. 3:35the total amount of minutes people spend
  116. 3:37watching. If 1,000 people each watch 5
  117. 3:40minutes of a video, that's 5,000 minutes
  118. 3:42of watch time. YouTube cares about watch
  119. 3:44time on the platform because more watch
  120. 3:45time means more ad revenue. Retention
  121. 3:47though is different. It's the percentage
  122. 3:49of your video that the average viewer
  123. 3:50actually watches. If in a 10-minute
  124. 3:53video, people drop off after 4 minutes,
  125. 3:54that's 40% retention. YouTube shows this
  126. 3:57on a curve, and that curve tells a
  127. 3:58story. A steep drop in the first 30
  128. 4:00seconds means your opening didn't
  129. 4:01deliver on what the thumbnail promised.
  130. 4:03A gradual slope is normal. But a sudden
  131. 4:06cliff halfway through the video means
  132. 4:08something specific happened. A topic
  133. 4:10shift, a tangent, a pacing drop. YouTube
  134. 4:12notices every single one of these. And
  135. 4:14YouTube doesn't look at retention in
  136. 4:15isolation. It compares your video to
  137. 4:17other videos of a similar topic and
  138. 4:19length. A 6-minute video 60% retention
  139. 4:22can outperform a 12-minute video with
  140. 4:2350%, even though the longer one has more
  141. 4:26raw watch time. By the way, speaking of
  142. 4:28length in terms of content, one more
  143. 4:29thing to note here. YouTube recently
  144. 4:31announced that TV watch time had
  145. 4:33overtaken mobile for the first time
  146. 4:35ever. People are watching YouTube like
  147. 4:36they do Netflix, leaned back, long watch
  148. 4:39sessions. That's why the average video
  149. 4:41length from the top 100 YouTube creators
  150. 4:43has nearly doubled in recent years. If
  151. 4:44your audience watches on TV and your
  152. 4:46videos are 5 minutes long but have the
  153. 4:47potential to be longer, you might be
  154. 4:50leaving real watch time on the table.
  155. 4:51So, the beginner framework is this.
  156. 4:53Clarity first. Be crystal clear about
  157. 4:55what your video is, who it's for, and
  158. 4:57what you're promising. Then your
  159. 4:58thumbnail gets the click. Your opening
  160. 5:00keeps them watching. They watch as much
  161. 5:02as possible, earning you watch time, and
  162. 5:04the algorithm is taught who your videos
  163. 5:07are for. So, by the next time you
  164. 5:08upload, a much clearer picture is
  165. 5:10painted for your channel. If you get all
  166. 5:12that right, you are no longer fighting
  167. 5:13with the algorithm. It is now a tool
  168. 5:15that you're using to your advantage.
  169. 5:16Moving on now to a different type of
  170. 5:18content creator. Someone in the range of
  171. 5:20maybe 5,000 to 100,000 subscribers. If
  172. 5:23you're in this category, you understand
  173. 5:24CTR, you know what retention is, and
  174. 5:25you're doing the things you're supposed
  175. 5:27to be doing. And even still, it is very
  176. 5:29possible you feel stuck. If that sounds
  177. 5:31like you or a far-off future you don't
  178. 5:33want, then that's what this section is
  179. 5:34for. And let's start with something that
  180. 5:36most creators don't think about. Where
  181. 5:38are your views actually coming from?
  182. 5:40Open YouTube Studio right now. Click on
  183. 5:42analytics, then traffic sources. You're
  184. 5:44going to see three main categories.
  185. 5:46Browse, that's the home page. Suggested,
  186. 5:49which is the sidebar next to a video you
  187. 5:51watch. And search. Most creators look at
  188. 5:53the screen and think, "Oh, this is
  189. 5:55interesting data." It's not. Look beyond
  190. 5:57the face value. Each source tells you
  191. 6:00something completely different about how
  192. 6:01YouTube sees your channel, and each one
  193. 6:03rewards completely different content
  194. 6:05behavior. Browse traffic comes from your
  195. 6:07video showing up on somebody's YouTube
  196. 6:09home page before they've searched for
  197. 6:11anything. They've just loaded the
  198. 6:12website. That's YouTube spending its
  199. 6:13most valuable real estate on your video.
  200. 6:16But, there's two common misconceptions
  201. 6:18that are worth clearing up here. The
  202. 6:19first is that browse is only for the big
  203. 6:21channels, and it isn't. You've probably
  204. 6:23noticed small channels appearing on your
  205. 6:25home page from time to time, and that
  206. 6:27right there is YouTube doing its early
  207. 6:29discovery tests for new content. What
  208. 6:31they're doing is seeding a new video to
  209. 6:33a small group of people whose watch
  210. 6:34history suggests that they would
  211. 6:36probably enjoy that kind of video. They
  212. 6:38do this for channels of all sizes, and
  213. 6:40that kind of makes sense, because
  214. 6:41otherwise, everyone would literally have
  215. 6:43zero subscribers, and that would be it.
  216. 6:44Speaking of subscribers, the second
  217. 6:46misconception is that browse is driven
  218. 6:47by subscribers. It is not. YouTube has
  219. 6:50shifted to a viewer history model. If
  220. 6:52someone has watched your last two videos
  221. 6:53and didn't hit subscribe, YouTube is
  222. 6:55going to put your next video on their
  223. 6:57home feed at some point anyway, because
  224. 6:59they watched your last two videos.
  225. 7:01Meanwhile, a channel that has a million
  226. 7:03inactive subscribers isn't going to get
  227. 7:05that much browse traffic. Just having
  228. 7:07subscribers does not earn you browse
  229. 7:09traffic. Recent, consistent viewership
  230. 7:11does. Now, suggested traffic comes in
  231. 7:14play when your video is recommended
  232. 7:16alongside somebody else's video. For
  233. 7:18example, if you're watching this on a
  234. 7:19browser and you look off to the side, I
  235. 7:21think the side, there's going to be a
  236. 7:22bunch of videos over here. These are all
  237. 7:24suggested videos. I really hope they're
  238. 7:26on this side of the screen. Otherwise,
  239. 7:27I'll look very silly right now. If
  240. 7:28you're watching on mobile, you can
  241. 7:29scroll down and there'll be suggested
  242. 7:30videos at the bottom. I think this is
  243. 7:31the bottom. Most creators think getting
  244. 7:33suggested traffic is purely about a
  245. 7:35topic match. Make a video about the same
  246. 7:37subject as a larger channel, and YouTube
  247. 7:39routes their traffic your way. That's
  248. 7:41partially true, but the updated reality
  249. 7:43is a bit more precise than that. Again,
  250. 7:45you can see this in play for yourself
  251. 7:46right now. Essentially, YouTube has
  252. 7:48shifted away from matching topics to
  253. 7:50matching sessions. The question it's
  254. 7:51asking now isn't just is this video
  255. 7:53about the same thing? Instead, it's
  256. 7:55asking if somebody watches video A,
  257. 7:57would they also like video B? Again, the
  258. 8:00difference here is subtle, but
  259. 8:01important. The clustering is also got
  260. 8:03more specific. It's no longer about
  261. 8:05categories like gaming or cooking.
  262. 8:07YouTube now groups by micro niches, a
  263. 8:08specific combination of topic, tone, and
  264. 8:11audience. A relaxing architecture
  265. 8:13channel might get suggested next to a
  266. 8:14productivity channel, not because the
  267. 8:16topics overlap, but because the audience
  268. 8:18is the same person. Which is awesome
  269. 8:20news because if your content fits that
  270. 8:21vibe, then you could end up appearing
  271. 8:23next to channels 10 times the size of
  272. 8:24yours. That is how small channels break
  273. 8:26through without having a single viral
  274. 8:28moment. Next up, there's search traffic,
  275. 8:30and this is pretty obvious. This is
  276. 8:31people searching for the thing that you
  277. 8:33talk about on YouTube. Search rewards
  278. 8:35clarity and consistency of language. You
  279. 8:37using the same words that your audience
  280. 8:39would use to describe a problem that
  281. 8:41your video solves. Search traffic can be
  282. 8:43slower, but incredibly durable. A
  283. 8:45well-optimized video can drive views for
  284. 8:47years. And now we get to talk about the
  285. 8:49metric that sits above all three of
  286. 8:51these, the one YouTube cares about more
  287. 8:53than all of them combined, and that is
  288. 8:55satisfaction. YouTube runs millions of
  289. 8:57viewer surveys every single day,
  290. 8:59randomly asking people what they thought
  291. 9:01of videos they recently watched. Those
  292. 9:02responses feed directly into the
  293. 9:04recommendation system. YouTube is not
  294. 9:06just measuring whether people watched,
  295. 9:07it's measuring whether or not they're
  296. 9:08glad they watched. I want you to search
  297. 9:10for a video called We Sent Garlic Bread
  298. 9:12to the Edge of Space, Then Ate It by Tom
  299. 9:15Scott. The title says exactly what it
  300. 9:16is. Someone put garlic bread in a
  301. 9:18weather balloon, sent it 35 km into the
  302. 9:20stratosphere, brought it back down, then
  303. 9:23ate it. This is one of the most viewed
  304. 9:25videos on the entire channel with tens
  305. 9:26of millions of views. Let's imagine for
  306. 9:28a second that you only know the title of
  307. 9:30this video. What do you think the
  308. 9:32average YouTuber today would do with a
  309. 9:34video titled We Sent Garlic Bread to the
  310. 9:36Edge of Space and then ate it. Most
  311. 9:37creators making video like that would
  312. 9:38probably do a whole bunch of stuff. They
  313. 9:40would film the entire planning process.
  314. 9:42They would vlog the journey to the
  315. 9:44launch site. They would drag out the
  316. 9:45suspense and turn a 6-minute concept
  317. 9:48into a 20-minute experience. Sure, this
  318. 9:51will add to the run time of the video
  319. 9:52and potentially get you more watch time.
  320. 9:54Maybe people even make it to the end of
  321. 9:55that video. But with all of that
  322. 9:57padding, going from click to biting down
  323. 9:59on garlic bread might make people feel
  324. 10:01like they were a bit shortchanged. And
  325. 10:03when the time comes, they may leave a
  326. 10:05pretty mediocre review on that
  327. 10:06satisfaction survey. Meanwhile, here's
  328. 10:08what Tom actually did. The video starts
  329. 10:10with a piece of garlic bread, and within
  330. 10:11the first 5 seconds, it's already on its
  331. 10:13way to space. The promise made in the
  332. 10:15title is kept right at the front of the
  333. 10:16video. No unnecessary build-up, no
  334. 10:18filler, just the concept executed
  335. 10:21cleanly from start to finish. He
  336. 10:22sacrificed real watch time, but gained
  337. 10:24something worth far more. Millions of
  338. 10:26people clicked, watched the whole thing,
  339. 10:29and saw something genuinely surprising,
  340. 10:31and left feeling satisfied. This idea
  341. 10:33hopefully changes the way you think
  342. 10:35about creating content on YouTube. And I
  343. 10:37hope the takeaway here is, "Oh, I guess
  344. 10:39he's saying make shorter videos."
  345. 10:40Because it's not. A video with strong
  346. 10:42watch time, but low satisfaction can get
  347. 10:45suppressed over time. The point being is
  348. 10:47that every minute you add to your video
  349. 10:49should be worth the viewer's time. The
  350. 10:51ultimate goal is raising satisfaction.
  351. 10:53If somebody leaves your how-to video at
  352. 10:56the 3-minute mark because they got
  353. 10:57excited and automatically just wanted to
  354. 10:59try the thing they just learned from
  355. 11:00your video, that isn't necessarily a bad
  356. 11:02thing. The algorithm is getting smarter
  357. 11:03about context. So, something like this
  358. 11:05no longer reads as a failure. This is
  359. 11:07what creators call good abandonment.
  360. 11:09Now, there's one more thing I want to
  361. 11:10talk about before we get on to the
  362. 11:11expert level of the algorithm, and that
  363. 11:13is format saturation. If you've been
  364. 11:15using a consistent format with the same
  365. 11:17thumbnail style, same title structure,
  366. 11:19and same content angle, and recently it
  367. 11:20stopped working for you, there's a
  368. 11:22reason for that. And the clearest
  369. 11:23example out there in the real world
  370. 11:25right now is the 100 days in Minecraft
  371. 11:27format. We believe a creator called Luke
  372. 11:29TheNotable popularized this concept.
  373. 11:31Within months, the packaging became
  374. 11:33completely saturated. On the left side
  375. 11:35of the thumbnail, day one, weak
  376. 11:36character. On the right side, day 100,
  377. 11:38glowing character. The title, I survived
  378. 11:41100 days in Minecraft. And it worked
  379. 11:43brilliantly. Thousands of small and
  380. 11:45intermediate gaming channels copied it
  381. 11:46exactly, and for a brief window, they
  382. 11:48grew. Now, imagine you're the YouTube
  383. 11:49algorithm, and you have a Minecraft
  384. 11:51fan's homepage to build out for them.
  385. 11:53Minecraft fans also like other stuff, so
  386. 11:55it's not just going to be Minecraft
  387. 11:56videos on that feed. It's likely that
  388. 11:57the YouTube algorithm is only going to
  389. 11:59surface one 100 days video on that home
  390. 12:01feed at that time. And we'll just
  391. 12:03imagine that it has two to choose from.
  392. 12:05A 100 days video from a channel with
  393. 12:074,000 subscribers, and a 100 days video
  394. 12:10from ForgeLabs, who has 6 million
  395. 12:12subscribers. If you're the algorithm,
  396. 12:13you don't have to flip a coin here. You
  397. 12:15You're going to default to the channel
  398. 12:16with the larger data set. YouTube has
  399. 12:18years of proof that ForgeLabs keeps
  400. 12:21people watching and keeps them
  401. 12:22satisfied. The thing is, YouTube doesn't
  402. 12:24have just two candidates in that
  403. 12:26category to choose from. Go ahead and
  404. 12:28search for 100 days in Minecraft right
  405. 12:29now. Those thousands of small channels
  406. 12:32are nowhere to be found. Buried the
  407. 12:34moment the giants decided to start
  408. 12:36playing the same game. This
  409. 12:37templatization is at a breaking point,
  410. 12:39and the lesson isn't that complicated.
  411. 12:41If you look identical to a channel that
  412. 12:43is 10 times the size of you, the
  413. 12:45algorithm will just show the big channel
  414. 12:47instead. But there is good news, because
  415. 12:49the big channels are locked into their
  416. 12:50formats because their audience expects
  417. 12:52consistency. But you're not locked into
  418. 12:54anything. So, find the angles that the
  419. 12:56big channels aren't covering. Adopt a
  420. 12:58thumbnail style that stands out against
  421. 13:00the clones, and framing that triggers
  422. 13:02genuine curiosity instead of format
  423. 13:05fatigue. YouTube will reward that
  424. 13:07because a refreshing video is exactly
  425. 13:09what the satisfaction algorithm is
  426. 13:10looking for. So, here's one thing I want
  427. 13:12you to do this week. Open Studio, go to
  428. 13:14analytics, hit traffic sources, and take
  429. 13:16a screenshot of that breakdown. Then,
  430. 13:18ask yourself one honest question. Does
  431. 13:20what I'm creating actually match where
  432. 13:23my viewers are coming from? If browse is
  433. 13:25your biggest source, but you haven't
  434. 13:26posted consistently in weeks, then you
  435. 13:28are burning the most valuable real
  436. 13:30estate YouTube could give you. If search
  437. 13:31is dominating, but you're not able to
  438. 13:33turn those viewers into subscribers,
  439. 13:34then what you're doing is building
  440. 13:35someone else's library, not your own
  441. 13:36channel. But, here's something we still
  442. 13:38haven't explained. Why is it that
  443. 13:39sometimes a video will do nothing, and
  444. 13:41then 3 days later, suddenly explode? And
  445. 13:43why does it sometimes feel like tiny
  446. 13:45channels are outperforming ones that are
  447. 13:4710 times their size, and somehow yours
  448. 13:49isn't? The answer to these questions
  449. 13:51isn't the word luck. It's engineering,
  450. 13:54and that's what the expert section is
  451. 13:55for. So far, we've covered CTR,
  452. 13:57retention, satisfaction, traffic
  453. 13:59sources, and all of that is the
  454. 14:01interface layer, what you can see in
  455. 14:03YouTube Studio. This section is about
  456. 14:04what's running underneath all of it. A
  457. 14:07while back, a team of engineers at
  458. 14:08Google published a research paper
  459. 14:09explaining exactly how YouTube's
  460. 14:11recommendation system works at the
  461. 14:13machine learning level. It's publicly
  462. 14:15available. Most creators have never read
  463. 14:17it. We're going to walk through the key
  464. 14:19parts of it right now. The system runs
  465. 14:20as a two-stage pipeline. Every time
  466. 14:22someone opens YouTube, it has less than
  467. 14:24a second to decide what to show them,
  468. 14:26simultaneously for over 2 billion
  469. 14:28people, mind you. So, the first thing it
  470. 14:30has to do is make the problem smaller.
  471. 14:32Stage one is called candidate
  472. 14:34generation. YouTube has over 14 billion
  473. 14:36videos. It can't score all of them for
  474. 14:38every user in real time. That would be
  475. 14:40computationally impossible. So, instead,
  476. 14:42it uses a logic called co-visitation.
  477. 14:44People who watch video A tend to also
  478. 14:46watch video B. That pattern gets used to
  479. 14:49rapidly narrow the entire catalog down
  480. 14:51to a few hundred candidate videos per
  481. 14:53user. Your video doesn't get ranked
  482. 14:54until it makes the list. And if you post
  483. 14:56inconsistently across a vast array of
  484. 14:58unrelated topics, then the system can't
  485. 15:00find a reliable group of people to test
  486. 15:02you against. Now, for this behavior, you
  487. 15:05don't get penalized, but you do become
  488. 15:07what these engineers would call a null
  489. 15:09candidate. You are invisible to the
  490. 15:11pools where your audience actually
  491. 15:13lives. Ryan Trahan is a good real-world
  492. 15:15example of this. Today, he has over 23
  493. 15:17million subscribers, but for a stretch
  494. 15:19of his career, his channel was
  495. 15:20completely stalling. Not because his
  496. 15:22videos were bad, but because the
  497. 15:24algorithm was simply confused.
  498. 15:26>> it's very evident on my channel that I
  499. 15:28have pivoted so many different
  500. 15:29directions. I made a video copying Emma
  501. 15:31Chamberlain's Instagram photos, and then
  502. 15:33I kind of kept easing more into that
  503. 15:35like mainstream social media culture
  504. 15:37type of content, and then eventually I
  505. 15:40got into the commentary world being
  506. 15:41inspired by people like Cody Ko.
  507. 15:43>> Running vlogs for athletes, Emma
  508. 15:44Chamberlain style content, Cody Ko
  509. 15:46commentary, three completely different
  510. 15:48audiences on one channel. The system
  511. 15:50couldn't build a reliable fingerprint
  512. 15:52for him. He wasn't being penalized, he
  513. 15:54was just invisible. That was until he
  514. 15:57committed entirely to one format,
  515. 16:00narrative-driven budget and survival
  516. 16:02challenges. One audience, one consistent
  517. 16:05signal, every video pointing in the same
  518. 16:07direction. His channel broke out of its
  519. 16:09plateau and never looked back. The same
  520. 16:11algorithm, it didn't change, the data he
  521. 16:13was feeding it did. The system takes
  522. 16:15those few hundred candidates and scores
  523. 16:17each one. Watch time, retention, CTR,
  524. 16:19probability, and satisfaction signals
  525. 16:22all get weighted together into a single
  526. 16:24predicted score. But the question it's
  527. 16:26really asking is this, if we show this
  528. 16:28video to a specific person right now,
  529. 16:30will they come back to YouTube tomorrow?
  530. 16:32YouTube calls this expected value over
  531. 16:35time. They would rather someone close
  532. 16:36the app early feeling satisfied and
  533. 16:39return the next day, than stay for two
  534. 16:41hours, feel drained, and never open it
  535. 16:44again. A flat retention curve caused by
  536. 16:46padding, where people stay but the
  537. 16:47satisfaction survey comes back weak,
  538. 16:49will eventually get deprioritized in
  539. 16:51favor of content that actually delivers.
  540. 16:54The system isn't fooled by watch time
  541. 16:55alone. Now, here's the mechanic behind
  542. 16:58the question we opened this entire video
  543. 17:00with. Why does a video do nothing for
  544. 17:02three days and then suddenly explode?
  545. 17:04Well, the system has a tension that's
  546. 17:06built into it, and YouTube's engineering
  547. 17:08team has a name for this, the
  548. 17:09explore-exploit problem. Exploit means
  549. 17:12the system recommends a video it's
  550. 17:14already confident about, proven
  551. 17:15performers with strong historical
  552. 17:17signals, safe bets. But if YouTube only
  553. 17:19ever exploited, new videos would never
  554. 17:21surface and the platform would stagnate.
  555. 17:23So, it explores, giving a small slice of
  556. 17:26traffic to unproven videos as a test.
  557. 17:29Every video you upload gets an
  558. 17:30expiration window. The system shows it
  559. 17:32to a small initial audience and watches
  560. 17:34what happens. If the video over performs
  561. 17:36relative to what the system predicted,
  562. 17:37allocation expands. More people see it.
  563. 17:40They respond well, it expands again and
  564. 17:42again. That expansion takes time,
  565. 17:43sometimes 48 hours, sometimes a week.
  566. 17:45But here's what makes this even more
  567. 17:47important to understand. The system's
  568. 17:49prediction for your video isn't based on
  569. 17:51some universal standard. It's based on
  570. 17:53your own channel's history. Your last
  571. 17:55[music] 10 videos set the baseline
  572. 17:57expectation your next video has to beat
  573. 17:59to trigger expansion. You can see how
  574. 18:01this is playing out right now, once
  575. 18:02again, in the Minecraft niche.
  576. 18:04CaptainSparklez has 11.4 million
  577. 18:06subscribers, a genuine YouTube OG on the
  578. 18:08platform since 2010. Forge Labs has
  579. 18:11around 6 million, but Forge Labs 100
  580. 18:13Days videos routinely pull in millions
  581. 18:16of views while CaptainSparklez is
  582. 18:18posting to over 11 million subscribers
  583. 18:20and getting a fraction of that per
  584. 18:21video. The subscriber count doesn't
  585. 18:23explain the gap. The baseline does. Most
  586. 18:26of CaptainSparklez's subscribers
  587. 18:27>> [music]
  588. 18:27>> came from a different era of YouTube.
  589. 18:29When the algorithm tests his new content
  590. 18:31on that subscriber base, the vast
  591. 18:33majority of them scroll past it. If they
  592. 18:35scroll past enough, it's not going to
  593. 18:37regularly submit his content to them at
  594. 18:39all. The click-through rate drops
  595. 18:41against his own baseline expectation and
  596. 18:43the system takes that as a signal to
  597. 18:45pull back distribution. A smaller
  598. 18:46channel with a highly engaged audience
  599. 18:48doesn't have this problem. So, the
  600. 18:50baseline is just lower for them. The
  601. 18:52over performance signal is easier to
  602. 18:54trigger and when it triggers, expansion
  603. 18:56happens faster. This is why comparing
  604. 18:57your view count to channels that are
  605. 18:59larger than you isn't going to tell you
  606. 19:01anything of value. They're not your
  607. 19:03competition. Your competition is your
  608. 19:05own past performance. So, here's one
  609. 19:08thing you can do this week that other
  610. 19:09creators are not doing. Open Studio, go
  611. 19:12[music] to content tab, switch to
  612. 19:13advanced mode and pull your last 20
  613. 19:16videos. I want you to build a simple
  614. 19:17spreadsheet with four columns: title,
  615. 19:19CTR, average view duration, and views in
  616. 19:22the first 7 days. That average is your
  617. 19:24baseline, the exact bar the algorithm
  618. 19:26has set for you based on your history.
  619. 19:28Now, find your outliers, which would be
  620. 19:30the two or three videos that have over
  621. 19:32performed that baseline in all four
  622. 19:34categories simultaneously. The reason we
  623. 19:36can't look at just two of these
  624. 19:37categories is simple. Say one of your
  625. 19:40videos has like a lot more views than
  626. 19:41usual, but a really low click-through
  627. 19:42rate. That means that it probably got a
  628. 19:44push from somewhere else, maybe a Reddit
  629. 19:46post or an email newsletter. But the
  630. 19:48videos that over performed across all
  631. 19:50four categories at the same time, that's
  632. 19:52your signal. Was it the topic, the title
  633. 19:54structure, the thumbnail? Was it
  634. 19:55something you did differently in the
  635. 19:56first 30 seconds? The algorithm has
  636. 19:59already told you with this data that it
  637. 20:01is willing to bet heavily on that
  638. 20:03combination. Your job from here is to
  639. 20:05find out what those things were that
  640. 20:07worked, and then find a way to repeat
  641. 20:09them deliberately. Don't chase the
  642. 20:11highest view count video on your
  643. 20:13channel. You need to be looking at the
  644. 20:14videos that performed the best relative
  645. 20:17to your own baseline. That is where the
  646. 20:19algorithm has the most confidence in
  647. 20:20you, and that is where you should be
  648. 20:22going next. But here's the thing,
  649. 20:24understanding the algorithm doesn't
  650. 20:26actually fix the problem that most
  651. 20:27creators are facing today. Because the
  652. 20:30frustrating reality of YouTube is that
  653. 20:32sometimes videos that are genuinely
  654. 20:33good, well-researched, well-optimized
  655. 20:35pieces of content still seem to get no
  656. 20:39views relatively speaking. And the
  657. 20:41reason that could be happening has
  658. 20:42nothing to do with what we covered
  659. 20:43today. If that sounds familiar [music]
  660. 20:45to you, then I encourage you to watch
  661. 20:47this video next. You're not going to
  662. 20:49want to miss it.

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