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🚨 The CALM Before the CRYPTO STORM… MASSIVE CRASH or EXPLOSIVE PUMP Incoming?! — Transcript

by Intelligent Cryptocurrency - Dirk Crypto Diggy · 3,861 words · 528 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00All right, Bitcoin is trading at
0:01$83,000.
0:04It's a new week. It's Monday. We've had
0:06the biggest crypto conference of the
0:08year, Token 2049, that is now behind us.
0:11And basically, just as this pattern
0:14seems to go, we had quite a sell-off
0:17during that conference. It seems to be a
0:19thing like anytime there's a really big
0:21conference, there's just a sell-off
0:23during that time. I don't know why they
0:25time it like that. or maybe the people
0:27who try and keep the market up or
0:30manipulate the market, they're taking
0:31time off for the conference. I don't
0:32know what it is, but anyway, we seem to
0:35have gotten a pullback. So, right now,
0:36we're at a stage where we've had this
0:39massive run on Bitcoin where it went
0:42from 62 to 87. We've pulled back to 80.
0:45Currently, we're around 83,000. And the
0:48question is, what is next? What comes
0:51from here? So, I want to make a bit of a
0:53video update to give some options, give
0:56some insights, and let you see what what
1:00we can do from here. If you're new to
1:02the channel, welcome. My name is Dirk.
1:03Consider subscribing down below. Hit the
1:05like button, leave some comments. If you
1:07have questions, anything you want to
1:09know. If you disagree, agree, whatever
1:10you want to do, drop it in the comments
1:12below. Let's dive straight in. So, I
1:14want to start by looking at our central
1:16command trading terminal. This is a
1:18terminal that I've been working on for
1:21more than a year. It's basically a total
1:23custom trading terminal into which you
1:26can connect your blowof exchange with
1:28like two clicks. You can actually trade
1:29on the terminal. But that is not the
1:31main point. The main point is here we're
1:33building this terminal so that we can
1:36add in all the features, the indicators
1:38and the stuff that we want because on
1:41exchanges and even on trading view, but
1:42especially on exchange like the generic
1:44platforms, you just don't have the
1:46options and the tools and the data that
1:48you need to have to be successful. And
1:51uh I think like you know after having
1:53been in these markets for so many years,
1:55there's stuff that I look at and that I
1:56want to see it wasn't possible to add
1:58that into exchange platform. So, we
2:00started building this whole thing. And
2:03what you can see over here, by the way,
2:05the terminal is completely free. I'll
2:07drop a link down in the description
2:08below. You can get access. There's uh
2:10like it literally cost you nothing,
2:12right? You can get access to all these
2:13tools, overlays, all that stuff for
2:15free. Link in the description down
2:16below. But one thing that I really like
2:18is we built this deviation indicator
2:20that basically warns you when the price
2:23is getting too overbought or too
2:25oversold with the idea being that
2:29price can only move so much above the
2:32mean and so much below the mean, right?
2:34It's it always oscillates and even if it
2:37deviates a huge amount, it always snaps
2:40back to the mean. The price always goes
2:41up and down. And the whole issue with
2:44price is that it works
2:47to trap you because we as humans are
2:51very flawed. Our brains are not wired
2:54for price like this, right? We're
2:56generally risk averse and our emotions
2:59tend to work against us. So when you see
3:01price going up and up and up and up, you
3:04get incredibly greedy at the worst
3:05point. Like our brains, our emotions
3:07work like it's been going up so much.
3:09you have all this FOMO and then our
3:12brains tell us, "Oh, we need to buy. We
3:13need to buy because it's going up more."
3:15But that's actually the exact opposite
3:16because by the time it's gone up so much
3:18already, we're getting closer and closer
3:20to a pullback. And most of the time,
3:22people just get sucked into that and buy
3:25the very top. That's what we've got
3:27here. So, you can see here on the
3:28screen, the red is warning when things
3:30are overextended. And that's usually the
3:32point of maximum FOMO where most people
3:35like like our brains are telling us bye
3:36bye bye because it's going up. But
3:38actually that's when the distribution
3:39happens and when you should not be
3:41buying. The same thing works in the
3:42inverse when it goes down for so long.
3:45You get so scared by the end of the move
3:47you think it's going to go way lower
3:48that you actually sell and panic sell
3:51and maybe even short on leverage at the
3:53worst point. That is for example the
3:55blue that you see over here. So, we're
3:58trying to build in all these tools to
4:00help warn about these prices so that
4:03even even if our emotions are telling us
4:05bye bye bye because it's been going up
4:07and everyone's euphoric. Obviously, at
4:09the same time, you'll see the media
4:11being more bullish. You'll see the
4:13influences being more bullish and all of
4:14that contributes to us wanting to buy at
4:17the top, for example, when it's red. You
4:19can see what happened here. This was in
4:20May uh May of uh this year when we're at
4:2483K. Well, if you started turning
4:26bullish over there, we dropped to 57K
4:29afterwards. And we have this exact same
4:31warning system here right now where it's
4:33been turning red since $87,000.
4:37The warning has been red, which means
4:39that things are overheated according to
4:40this indicator and that we should be
4:43warning. Now, it doesn't mean that
4:44exactly 87K was the top. Maybe it sweeps
4:47the highs one more time. Maybe it goes
4:48to 88,000. But in general, this is not
4:51an optimal point for taking long
4:53positions. Now, these indicators work
4:55based on the time frame that they're
4:57shown on, right? So, right now, this is
4:59a 12-hour chart. So, you can see the
5:01move takes much longer to play out. It
5:04was warning blue, so it was oversold.
5:07And that was not the point to be selling
5:09or to be shorting. And from that point
5:11onwards, and and it did take a long
5:13time, right? This blue was May. So, May,
5:15June, July, August, September, October.
5:17It took 5 months for this entire move to
5:20play out from the lows until the highs.
5:22So, if this is building a top here, it
5:25could take several months to go down or
5:27to chop or sideways and things like
5:29that. I wanted to show you this because
5:32it is still warning here that around
5:3487,000 83,000 where we are right now, it
5:37might not be the most optimal time to be
5:40buying. And when we get a pullback, that
5:43will be interesting especially if it
5:45starts to turn blue again. But like I
5:46said, on this time frame, it can take a
5:48long time. And you can see over here for
5:50the short term we have the liquidations
5:52which you can actually turn on with like
5:53one click. This is real-time data that
5:55we're purchasing um from Coin Glass. So
5:58we have these API. So it pulls in the
6:00real-time data of the liquidations. You
6:02can see there's liquidation levels over
6:03here. $200 million at 87.5. So it is
6:07possible the price wicks to just above
6:0987 again to take out those liquidations.
6:11But these are all like little tools
6:13depending on whether you trade
6:15short-term or long-term, whether you're
6:16trading spot or leverage. you can
6:18utilize all of them. It's it's all like
6:20helpful little things. And I will make a
6:23complete tutorial series about the
6:25trading terminal. We've added a lot of
6:27changes. Uh if you've seen this already,
6:30the early stages of the terminal, you'll
6:32see it's completely different. We put in
6:33a complete uh UI overhaul here and I
6:36think it's a lot better. You can see
6:37here also the open interest. We've added
6:40this in as an uh ability to just overlay
6:43this and you can see the open interest
6:45here. So the amount of leverage in the
6:46system is now higher than it was in May
6:50when the price was 83 and went from 83K
6:53to 57K. So there are all sorts of
6:56warnings and that's kind of why I wanted
6:57to show this to you that um there are
7:00other ways of looking at this besides
7:02just looking at social media and what
7:04people are telling you. Oh, bullish bye
7:06bye bye. And besides just looking at the
7:07price, like this is really going into
7:11more detail, looking at the data,
7:12looking at the open interest, looking at
7:14the deviations from the mean, etc., etc.
7:17And that is right now still warning us
7:19that this is potentially here still
7:22topping before another pullback. Keep in
7:24mind, we have the midterms in uh about 3
7:27weeks from now, November 3rd. So, it is
7:30possible this all had just a massive
7:32rally into the midterms and that after
7:35the midterms, we see some sort of
7:36correction or flush for the final
7:39bottom. Now, I'm going to go over into a
7:41regular chart and give you some options
7:43there. It could be a higher low uh just
7:45a pullback to wipe the leverage. It
7:46could be a complete flush and new lows.
7:49Either way, I do think we are getting
7:51closer and closer to the bottom of the
7:53bare cycle, which means now is really
7:56the time to be paying attention. So,
7:58what we have here is the weekly chart of
8:00Bitcoin. Um, going back all the way here
8:02to 2012. This is on Bitstamp. I put it
8:04as a log scale so that it's easier to
8:07see. The first thing I want to point out
8:08over here is that if you look at the
8:11previous bare cycle lows, like the
8:12lowest point of the previous three
8:14cycles, you can see here very clearly,
8:16it was the 12th of January 2015, right?
8:20That was kind of the first bare market
8:22bottom. then on the 10th of December
8:252018 and then the last one was the 21st
8:28of November. Okay. So what that shows us
8:32is that the previous cycles actually
8:35bottomed relatively late into the year.
8:39So by people saying the bare market
8:42bottom was in at 57K that would
8:45basically mean that the bottom was in in
8:48July, end of June, early July. That
8:51would be a huge discrepancy to any
8:54previous cycle. Okay? And that is why
8:57I'm still here warning about caution
8:59that there could still be a flush and
9:01maybe even still new lows. We still have
9:04say the next two to 2 and 1/2 months
9:06where we are in a potential window for
9:09the price to still make new lows without
9:12it being substantially different from
9:14previous cycles. You can see here. So
9:16obviously one thing that stands out
9:17right away is that it seems to be
9:19getting shorter by one month every time.
9:21So that means January, it means
9:22December, November, maybe this time it's
9:24October. We're already in October. But
9:26the the difference from these previous
9:28cycles to going going from bottoming Q4
9:32to bottoming in June or July, that seems
9:36like a bit of a big leap. So that's why
9:38I'm still cautious here. And I think
9:41there is still that potential for new
9:43lows, especially considering all the
9:45conflict that's going on in the Middle
9:47East, all the tension, the the issues in
9:49the economy that that are breaking like
9:51uh the housing market in the US
9:53especially is starting to give problems.
9:55We have Trump's midterms on the third.
9:57So maybe uh maybe they just had a big
10:00rally into the midterms and we have a
10:02sell-off after that to put in the final
10:03bottom before 2027 is more bullish.
10:06There's all sorts of variations and um
10:08I'm not completely convinced that the
10:11bottom is in and and that's something
10:12that we will only be able to say with
10:15certainty, you know, 6 or 12 months from
10:17now. We can say, oh, the bottom was at
10:1957K or oh, the bottom wasn't in yet and
10:21it's still going to be low. We don't
10:22know, right? Nobody knows for sure. What
10:24we can do is we can look at this
10:26previous data. I showed you at the
10:28beginning on the central command trading
10:29terminal. There are warnings here of us
10:31kind of being toppy and overbought. Um I
10:34I've shown you this data where previous
10:36cycles have only bottomed later in Q4
10:38even as much as Q1 of the next year. And
10:41what we can see now is that technically
10:44here on the weekly chart you can see we
10:47are now both above the previous high of
10:50May for now and the 50week simple moving
10:54average. So technically that is a
10:57bullish trend on the higher time frame
10:59until we get back below this level which
11:02is currently about 76,000. If we get
11:05back below this 50 SMA it would be a
11:08deviation and we could continue lower
11:10and then maybe continue higher again.
11:12That's also a possibility. But again
11:14this market is all about probabilities
11:16not certainties. So we have an if then
11:20framework. So we're still above here. If
11:22we lose the 50 SMA, then we're back in
11:25bearish territory and new lows are much
11:28more likely. So, you can adopt uh
11:31different frameworks of of what to do
11:33here. Um depending on how you trade, how
11:36much you want to risk, how active you
11:37want to be, whether you trade spot or
11:39leverage. Uh there's all sorts of
11:40variations, but um one way would be
11:44well, we're above the 50 SMA and you can
11:48hope or or take an assumption that that
11:50is bullish until proven below. So you
11:52can be long here with a stop uh below
11:5676,000 targeting higher, right? And if
12:00that plays out and it works well, at
12:01least you have an invalidation. You have
12:03about a 10% drop. So if you're wrong,
12:07you lose 10%. And if you're right and it
12:09goes up only from here, well then you
12:11make whatever you make, right? 10 20 50
12:13100%. If it continues going up. So let's
12:15say it's a new bull market. It doesn't
12:17drop below the 50 and it goes to 200k
12:20from here. Well, then you get a nice
12:22whatever 130% gain or whatever it is for
12:25risking 10%. So if you're, you know, put
12:27in $100,000, you're willing to risk
12:30$10,000. if you're wrong for potentially
12:33120,000 if you're right and it continues
12:35going up. There's also the other option
12:37where you can see maybe we get a
12:40pullback and where that pullback is
12:42going to be it could be the 50 SMA.
12:44Maybe it continues to fill this fair
12:45value gap and it goes back to like the
12:47low70s and then continues up. So there's
12:50basically three options I think that
12:52we're looking at and and that's really
12:53here what I've drawn here. So, we have
12:55the option where we're now bullish and
12:57we continue up only, which I think is
13:00kind of unlikely based on what I've
13:02shown you, based on the timings, based
13:03on the central command overlays, on the
13:05short-term, the deviation warnings. Um,
13:07I think this is uh the least likely
13:09option. Uh, number one, then we have
13:11number two, which is some sort of a
13:14pullback.
13:16uh whether it's to the 50 SMA high7s or
13:19whether it's to the low7s to just kind
13:21of wipe out all those longs that think
13:23everyone is bullish and then continue
13:25up. Um that that's more of a
13:27possibility. I think that's something we
13:29have to monitor as the pullback comes
13:31where does it go and then you look on
13:32the lower time frames to see um you know
13:34does it hold as support in the high7s or
13:37lower 70s or whatever the case is. And
13:39then option number three, which would
13:41also be an option probably less likely,
13:44but maybe maybe not that crazy, which is
13:48just this whole thing being a deviation,
13:49this whole pump. And at some point,
13:51maybe after the midterms, maybe
13:53something happens, maybe some black
13:54swan, we completely retrace back down.
13:57We take out the lows, so 57K, and we
14:00really put in the bare market lows. Um,
14:03and that could be, you know, November,
14:05it could be December, it could even be
14:06January. um for a crazy low somewhere. I
14:09I would say 50,000 maybe 40,000. I would
14:12like to see 40,000s for the low. I don't
14:14know if we're going to get it or not,
14:16but it's a possibility and then uh you
14:19know 2027 2028 may be bullish recovery
14:23probably several months of chop after
14:25this happens. If this happens something
14:26like that. So that's what I'm looking
14:28at. Now, we're still in a situation
14:29where altcoins have really
14:33they they've pumped like 2 or 3x, but
14:36it's nothing too crazy. And they had
14:38bearish RSI divergences into resistance.
14:42They're still in bearish market
14:43structure. And there's possibility for
14:46altcoins to still drop 30, 40, 50% from
14:49current levels. So, I'm still not
14:50completely convinced the bottom is in. I
14:52think the risk window like I've shown
14:54you is till the end of the year. Okay.
14:57So, as we get closer and closer to the
14:58end of the year, we will know it's more
15:01likely for the bottom to be in. Whether
15:03that was as it is and we make a higher
15:05low and and the bottom has already been
15:07set or whether that bottom is still
15:08coming with some unforeseen events or
15:11crazy fear or the stock market selling
15:13off or black, whatever it happens, by
15:15the end of the year, it's going to be
15:17much more likely that the bottom is in
15:19based on these previous four-ear cycles.
15:21And then it becomes easier to start
15:24taking a position because we know like
15:26the chances of it selling off become
15:29less and less likely. Obviously, you
15:30always have to manage risk. There's
15:32always chances for black swans, 50%
15:34drops. So, be careful with leverage.
15:36Okay. Something that I wouldn't do
15:37personally here is buy altcoins on
15:39leverage right now because the altcoins
15:41can drop 50% in a matter of 1 to two
15:43days. We've seen it many times. And that
15:45means that even on a 2FX leverage from
15:48here, if it drops 50%, you get
15:50completely liquidated. And I've seen
15:51people lose hundreds of thousands, even
15:53millions of dollars because they think a
15:552x leverage is safe. On altcoins, it is
15:58not. Right? So, sure, you can always
16:00take trades. You know, if you're risking
16:01one or two% of your your bankroll, if
16:04you have $100,000 as a trading account,
16:06you're risking one or $2,000 if you want
16:08to take a leverage trade on an altcoin.
16:10That's fine because worst case, if you
16:12lose that one or 2%, it's fine. it's a
16:14tiny percentage of your bankroll and
16:16you're obviously going to base that on a
16:18proven setup where you try and you know
16:20if it works it works. If it doesn't it
16:21doesn't. That's not an issue usually.
16:23But the issue is if you leverage your
16:26whole trading account which you should
16:27never do um or your whole risk capital
16:29or more than your risk capital and one
16:31of these crazy liquidation flushes comes
16:33and you get wrecked and you get wiped
16:35out. And the worst part about that is
16:37that usually these coins always recover
16:39after the wipe out. Whether it's a month
16:41afterwards or six or 12 months
16:42afterwards, it doesn't matter. But if
16:44you would have had spots, at least you
16:46would have only drawn down and getting
16:47back to your entry and maybe in profit.
16:49But if you have leverage and you get
16:51wiped out and you can't buy back in
16:53because all your capital is gone, then
16:54you're wrecked and you lose all that
16:56money and it's it's it's like double
17:00double tilt, right? Not only do you lose
17:01your money, then you see you watch it
17:03come back to your entry or come into
17:05profit and you're like, well, if I only
17:07I would have had spots, I would have
17:09been fine. So, be very careful with
17:10leverage and oversizing and stuff like
17:12that. So, I'm very curious basically the
17:15next two to three months to see what
17:16happens if we still get a flush. I'll
17:18obviously be here to update um on the
17:21channel even more on a daily basis
17:23inside my VIP. And uh you know, if you
17:26haven't subscribed yet, subscribe, smash
17:27the like button, and I will continue to
17:30do these updates. And when I feel like,
17:32okay, we are really really in a new bull
17:34market now and uh things look good, I
17:37will say that. Right now, I'm still kind
17:39of cautious. As you can see in this
17:41video, I really still think there's
17:43potential for a bigger shakeout. Whether
17:45that's a flush to a higher low, so only
17:47like 20 30% and then continue higher, or
17:50whether it's a complete wipe of all the
17:53leverage and new lows, that remains to
17:55be seen. But as we get closer to the end
17:57of the year, it becomes more likely that
17:59the bottom is in. And I think 2027,
18:01we're probably going to see some nice
18:02upside also. So, that's coming either
18:05way. I think it's just good to be
18:07patient for a little bit longer.
18:09Especially also the the midterm thing.
18:11Getting that behind us, I think, is
18:13going to be a big deal. It's just
18:15another one of those wild cards where
18:17you don't know what you're going to get
18:18and what's going to happen after. When
18:20it's behind us, again, it's just one of
18:22those things, one of those potential
18:23catalysts for a big sell-off that kind
18:25of gets removed. If you need a place to
18:28trade, I trade on Blofen Exchange.
18:30There's a link down below. If you use my
18:32link to sign up to Blowin Exchange, you
18:35get the most amount of bonuses and
18:37cashback campaigns. We do iPhone
18:39giveaways, all sorts of stuff. It's free
18:40to use the link and you'll just get all
18:42those extra benefits that you get from
18:45using my link. It's a great exchange.
18:47I've met the CEO personally multiple
18:49times. They were just the platinum
18:51sponsor of the token tour 49. So, they
18:54were the biggest sponsor of that entire
18:56event. They also did a crazy party. They
18:59rented out the top nightclub in
19:00Singapore called Marquee where they
19:03invited all the top traders and the VIPs
19:06and the Koss. So again, that's another
19:08benefit like if you trade really big
19:10with size and you become one of their
19:12top traders, you'll get invited to their
19:14events and their parties and kind of
19:15behind the scenes inside the whole
19:17trading community. That's also pretty
19:19cool. So again, it's free to sign up.
19:20The link is in the description down
19:22below and I will see you in the next

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