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The Best Trade Is Still Ahead with Jordi Visser | Raoul Pal The Journey Man — Transcript

by Raoul Pal The Journey Man · 14,032 words · 1,974 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00The issue is which people don't
0:01understand is once you start leaning
0:02into this stuff, your actual constraint
0:04is still the same, [music] which is
0:06there is more demand. And last month I
0:08spent 11 grand on top [music] of my Mac
0:11subscription. This is what people don't
0:12understand. It's almost well, it is
0:14infinite demand.
0:15>> It's infinite demand. And the more you
0:16use it, the more it [music] fills up.
0:18And that's why anyone who thinks that
0:20they're going to get free time from AI,
0:21it's the opposite. My time is completely
0:23saturated. Token 2049 [music] Singapore,
0:26the world's largest crypto event,
0:28returns to Marina Bay Sands on the 7th
0:30of 8th of October. On stage will be
0:33myself, Jeff Yan from Hyperlquid, Shane
0:35Copam from Poly Market, and the Real
0:37Vision community gets 10% off tickets.
0:40Claim yours using the link below. See
0:42you there. Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome
0:45to my show, The Journeyman. The
0:47journeyman as you know by now is where
0:49we travel to that nexus of understanding
0:51of macro crypto and the exponential age
0:53of technology.
0:55About once a quarter I always have a
0:58fantastic conversation with a very good
0:59friend of mine Jordi Vissa. Jordi and I
1:02same background the hedge fund world
1:05investment banks and we both leapt into
1:07the world of crypto and technology and
1:10overlay it with our macro thinking. It's
1:12always a great conversation. I'm sure
1:14you're going to enjoy it. But before we
1:15get to [music] today's show, this
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1:45advantage of their free trial. Join me,
1:48Ral Pal, as I go on a journey of
1:50discovery through the macro, crypto, and
1:53exponential age landscapes. In the
1:55journey, man, I talk to the smartest
1:57people in the world so we can all become
2:00smarter together.
2:05Jord Vissa, how the devil are you,
2:08>> Raul? I'm great. How you doing?
2:11>> Good. take my glasses off for you.
2:13>> Just um Yeah, I had surgery. I've got
2:16rid of my glasses finally. I had
2:18>> I had You had laser surgery cuz I'm an
2:20old man and uh I can now see. It's
2:23amazing.
2:24>> Yeah, I had I had Lasix surgery I don't
2:27know if it's maybe 12 years ago now. It
2:30was great for the first five years and
2:32then you know you need readers anyway.
2:34So
2:35>> yeah, exactly. It's uh but it's amazing
2:38the technology, right? It's just
2:39amazing. You just get that done.
2:42>> So, what's happening with you? What's on
2:44your mind right now?
2:47>> I always love our chats because I have
2:48no idea where they're going to go. We
2:49just
2:50>> go somewhere.
2:51>> Well, rather than start with um with
2:55crypto and and AI, um let's let's talk
2:59bonds. Um
3:00>> yeah. Okay. Interesting.
3:02>> Where where my brain is, I I I I
3:06literally believe this is the most
3:09the biggest marketing scam I've ever
3:10seen in terms of people so fixated on
3:15this quote unquote collapse in bonds
3:17around the globe on 30-year yields. And
3:20I think this is a social media thing
3:22more than than anything. And it it only
3:25hit me when someone said something to me
3:27and said, "Have you looked at the charts
3:29of US bonds?" And I went, "Well, yeah. I
3:33look at the total return of them all the
3:35time and they're down 3% year-to date
3:37for the 20 plus ETF. uh this is not a
3:41big move but because you have these
3:43charts showing well this is the highest
3:45yield in the last 20 years and I I got
3:49into a discussion recently with someone
3:51we both know and they said how are you
3:53not concerned about this uh with regards
3:56to AI and the capital buildout and I've
3:58heard you talk about some of this stuff
4:00and I said when did it become this thing
4:03where when PMIs around the globe are are
4:05are going higher when profits are are
4:08not only soaring But they're at levels
4:11almost unprecedented. But they are
4:13unprecedented when you put the fact that
4:15we're not hiring anyone, that employment
4:17is barely growing and we're at
4:19recessionary type hiring levels. Profit
4:21margins are expanding. Don't you think
4:23you might be missing something? And oh,
4:25by the way, if you would have sold the
4:27NEI last May when they hit their highs
4:30in 30-year yields, you'd be down 70% or
4:33missing 70%. So that's where my head is
4:35right now is I think this this bond
4:38yield panic that everyone has that I
4:41think Ray Dalio and everyone's gone in
4:43and then you know the op-ed from Duck I
4:46think it just has a a big focus and can
4:48Bessant actually keep this in check when
4:50the reality is we've been through enough
4:52cycles that yields going higher is
4:55probably going to mean a lot of weaker
4:57places companies go out of business but
4:59that was going to happen with AI anyway
5:01so I don't view this as a negative thing
5:03I view it as a positive positive.
5:05>> Yeah, I mean I just a I think Besson's
5:08made it pretty clear that
5:11he need I mean really it's a supply
5:13issue because you've got the AI guy, you
5:16know, the hyperscalers now issuing and
5:17the government issuing and you basically
5:21need a weaker dollar for the foreign
5:24central banks to buy bonds. And he's
5:27gone over to Japan and he's gone to
5:29China and he's gone to South Korea and
5:31he's gone to the UAE. He's sorted out
5:33swap lines and I think he's got an
5:35agreement with the Chinese is look we'll
5:37try and lower the dollar and then the
5:38interview in the yen. So you know he's a
5:41macro guy. We've known him for a long
5:42time and you know what he's up to and
5:45then he's gone around he's a bond
5:46salesman so he has to go around and find
5:48a place for these bonds and so I just
5:51think that yeah they're going to be
5:53pretty anchored in the end but what
5:56everybody needs is a steeper yield
5:58curve. So they kind of do need the Walsh
6:00part of the equation and I think Walsh
6:02is playing the game which is he's got to
6:04sound credible and tight but he knows
6:07and Bessant keeps saying the inflation
6:08numbers are going to be weaker than
6:09expected and productivity is going to be
6:11stronger and you know Bessant's saying
6:14things like I'm armed with inside
6:15information and so you kind of feel that
6:20wherever the rates are um we're kind of
6:25in the range where they should unlikely
6:27to go higher. You know, I look at demark
6:29a lot as indicators. They're stacking up
6:31on the weeklies, dailies, monthlies.
6:33It's very close to that reversal when
6:35it's peak fear. Um, and it doesn't do
6:38much damage to most people. As you said,
6:40there is an old economy that is heavily
6:43in debt and over time that's going to
6:45get into trouble. There's a lot of these
6:47credit funds and all of that stuff that
6:48needs clearing at some point. I don't
6:50think it clears now. I think it clears
6:52at some at some point down the road from
6:55the the nexus of both AI and this and
6:58and yield. So I kind of still are
7:01looking for the weaker dollar and a
7:03steeper yield curve and just see how it
7:06goes from there. And that to to your
7:08Japan point is
7:12that's exactly what Japan did is they
7:14engineered a steep yield curve and guess
7:15what? The bank started lending. If
7:17you're going to if we're going to
7:18finance this massive capex voom boom,
7:21you need the banks to be lending. It's
7:22as simple as that. And then you just
7:23steep a yield curve at whatever it is 40
7:25basis points. It's just not enough.
7:28>> And again, if if if I was worried about
7:31things, I'd be looking at how bank
7:33stocks are trading around the globe. And
7:34bank stocks around the globe are up, you
7:36know, 30% year-over-year. So, you know,
7:39I'm a big believer and you know, in when
7:43people talk about the fact that the
7:44market is a discounting uh mechanism,
7:47I've always subscribed to that and I
7:49believe the rate of change of the stock
7:51prices would tell you the same way that
7:53earnings and profit margins should mean
7:55revert. If we're heading into a problem,
7:57you should see hiring going through. But
7:59if you're not hiring anyone and revenues
8:02are growing and you have a fiscal
8:05deficit and you have all this spending
8:07happening from the private sector, you
8:09know, we can all get worried. Um, but I
8:11I just don't see it as something there.
8:13I I want to bring something up to you
8:14because I've been
8:14>> just one side just to go back on that.
8:16I'm not sure if it was you who mentioned
8:17it or somebody else that if you want
8:20evidence of productivity, it's the point
8:23you're exactly raising. Record earnings
8:26and low employment. And that's I mean
8:30that is your answer. The other thing on
8:31productivity I just want to mention is I
8:34wrote a whole article in GMI about
8:36Amazon and used Amazon as an example of
8:39what the global economy would look like
8:42if they adopted AI and robotics to its
8:45core. Right? Because that's what
8:46Amazon's done since over the last eight
8:49years or so. They've completely turned
8:51into a productivity machine where their
8:54kind of earnings are now going up, their
8:56margins are going up because they've
8:57employed this technology and it's like
8:59that's proof of what the world will look
9:01like when people catch up. Amazon's just
9:03a pioneer.
9:05>> Yeah. Yeah. And I I I heard you mention
9:06that and I don't remember which
9:08interview or which thing it I think you
9:10were actually talking to someone and
9:12then you brought it up and it reminded
9:14me of you know I went out to Silicon
9:16Valley to kind of migrate away from the
9:19traditional macro way I'd approach
9:20things back in 2013 and the reason was
9:23this collision between two things. One
9:26was the debtfilled let's just grow at
9:28any pace Chinese. I I viewed them as the
9:31caboose of this kind of debtfueled
9:34world. They built out all the cities and
9:36I realized that's it. They've got a
9:37demographic issue just like the Western
9:39world. They have a debt problem that
9:41they're going to have to basically find
9:42a way to burn off over time. And I went
9:46out to Silicon Valley because Amazon
9:48didn't make any sense to me in 2013. I
9:50didn't understand how a company could
9:51trade at an infinity PE and really smart
9:54people were convincing me that it was
9:56you you're not getting it. So, I had to
9:58go there and that changed my mind. and I
9:59went to Singularity University and
10:01that's the the the beginning stage of me
10:03believing that where we are now there's
10:06a time mismatch and I really do believe
10:08this the reason the Nikai thing is so
10:10important to me so May of last year the
10:12NE the 30-year yields and the JGB's
10:14break through alltime highs if you go
10:16search in Grock and you say show me all
10:18the the posts that came out in X around
10:21the peak of this you'll get a zero hedge
10:23one saying the world is going to blow up
10:24this is the biggest thing
10:25>> the yen carry trade the carry trade all
10:28this stuff and here we are um you know
10:3018 months later and the Nikkei is off
10:32the highs. So this is not me saying at
10:35the peak. This is it's still up 70% from
10:37that point. And the reason it's
10:40important is I really do believe we have
10:42one side of the equation that's moving
10:44at exponential speed and then we have
10:46all of the old legacy world even the
10:49debt which is based on human speed. And
10:52the problem is if you're growing on one
10:54side so fast, if you're able to grow
10:56earnings but not hire people, GDP
10:59doesn't know how to capture that yet. We
11:02don't have a way to capture that. How
11:04are we growing earnings and revenue so
11:06fast and not hiring anyone? And and if
11:09people say, "Well, we're hiring some
11:10people demographics." If you strip out
11:13health care, which will be the last of
11:15the things that will be greatly impacted
11:17by AI, there's no hiring and there
11:19hasn't been any hiring for 20 months
11:21now. So the question comes in profit
11:23margins are definitely a way to look at
11:24it. But I think this mismatch between
11:27something moving so fast that you can't
11:30comprehend what ARR means in anthropic
11:33and open AAI and cursor before it. We've
11:35never seen these types of movements. And
11:37then on the other side, oh, debt's up
11:39again. We're up another trillion
11:40dollars, but it's growing at a pace far
11:42slower than the exponential side. And
11:44that's where I think the mismatch is.
11:46>> And what about
11:48the old way we used to look at bonds was
11:51just nominal GDP. So maybe, you know,
11:54how I'm thinking about this is yes, you
11:56know, financial repression means they
11:58want to keep bond yields below nominal
12:00GDP. Fine. Um, but they should have a
12:03tendency to rise and we'll probably swap
12:05out the inflation component for the
12:07productivity component. That's kind of
12:09my working roadmap.
12:11>> Yeah. And you you know this uh as well
12:14as I do, but historically basically
12:17before 1997, Treasury yields, 10ear
12:20yields usually traded about 200 basis
12:22points above nominal GDP. So nominal GDP
12:25right now is at 6% in the US
12:27year-over-year, six and change. So
12:29theoretically, using the pre97 time, we
12:32should be up at 8 1/2%. Well, we're not
12:34up at 8 and 1/2, we're 4 and 3/4. So
12:37we're already trading below. Now this
12:39started that switch off started in 1997.
12:42Now that was the Asian financial crisis
12:44which was the original cause. But that
12:46was also when we started this whole okay
12:49the demographic shift. The the debt is
12:51now increasing. And at the same time
12:54that was really when the internet
12:55started to become an investable thing.
12:58And all of those things kind of line up.
13:00And that's where I think everyone's just
13:01getting way over their skis on looking
13:03at the bond market and believing that AI
13:06can't continue to grow. And I know you
13:08know this, but most people don't. The
13:10interest cost for them, whether they pay
13:126%, 8%, 9%, it doesn't change their
13:16profits on their business. This is such
13:18a small.
13:19>> In fact, profits went up for most of the
13:21hyperscalers because they have cash. Now
13:24they don't have as much cash, but yeah,
13:26they made a fortune from it.
13:27>> Yeah. And
13:27>> that's the whole of Japan, by the way.
13:29the whole of Japan, every household
13:31>> is a saver. So, you're giving them extra
13:34money and which people don't realize.
13:36>> Yeah. And so inflation will stay above
13:38the 2%. It will freak people out. But I
13:41view this as an academic argument. I
13:43just think people are using their
13:44history books. They're using a time
13:46where if the consumers of the world, the
13:49growers of the world were human beings,
13:51that's one thing. But we have billions
13:54of AI agents over the next 12 months.
13:56Billions. And now with Gac and the
13:58ability to just create I mean I've
14:00created more AI agents in the past
14:02whatever it's been 10 days since I
14:04started using it. I can't stop coming up
14:07with ideas. So if you look at it now I'm
14:08running into the problem a lot of people
14:10are which is I have 75 agents and I I
14:12got to make sure that I remember who's
14:13who. That's my biggest issue. So we're
14:15just
14:15>> Yeah. But I had to create a even on my
14:18Claude I had to create a COO to manage
14:20all of my agents cuz in the full-time
14:22[ __ ] job because they keep breaking
14:24or disappearing or whatever. So, I've
14:26got that and then I'm using the Grock
14:28one and I'm already at like six Asians.
14:29I only started three days ago. It's
14:31insane. The the issue is which people
14:34don't understand is once you start
14:35leaning into this stuff, your actual
14:37constraint is still the same, which is
14:39there is more demand. And what happened
14:42to me is like I started having to pay
14:44for Fable 5 and it went from like a
14:47couple of grand and last month I spent
14:4911 grand on top of my Mac subscription.
14:52I'm like this is what people don't
14:53understand. It's almost well it is
14:55infinite demand.
14:57>> It it it's infinite demand and the more
14:59you use it the more it fills up. And
15:01that's why um anyone who thinks that if
15:03they're still working in any kind of way
15:06that they're going to get free free time
15:08from AI, it's the opposite. Um my time
15:10is completely saturated. It's filled.
15:13It's taken away from watching sports, a
15:14lot of other things. But it just shows
15:16how much I like learning, how much I
15:18like being on top of what's going on.
15:21And I'm starting to spend all of my time
15:23on tokenization. Um, I've been asked by
15:26again a lot of people we know on the
15:27macro side because I do these weekly
15:29videos and I've been starting to migrate
15:32more towards the importance of
15:33tokenization in in a broader scale. Um,
15:37I've never had more fun learning a topic
15:39and connecting it back to the world that
15:42we grew up in and the impact that it's
15:44going to have. And especially as we're
15:46seeing countries start to go through the
15:48same race for different reasons that
15:51China and the US are in AI, Japan's
15:53realizing that if they don't adopt the
15:56blockchain for all of their assets
15:58quickly, their capital markets will
16:00worsen. And capital markets are now
16:02becoming one of the topics that everyone
16:03cares about because we need to raise
16:05money. So the depth of the markets to
16:07take capital, the democratization of
16:09everyone being able to invest has become
16:12more important. So tokenization becomes
16:14a very important solution to the
16:16problems we're having with the 10ear
16:18yield. Um it really is, hey, I want to
16:21go raise debt. Well, let's pocket this
16:23in something where 8 billion people can
16:25buy it as opposed to just isolated to a
16:27few few places even though they have a
16:30lot of money. So, I think tokenization
16:32and this whole um ability to learn about
16:34what's going on and connect it back. I
16:36I'm I'm having the best time with this.
16:37>> What do you think happens with the asset
16:39management complex? Cuz let's say debt,
16:41okay, let's say corporate debt. So
16:44corporate debt tends to get aggregated
16:46into funds that then get bought by
16:49pension plans
16:51um maybe in a 401k but rarely um because
16:55they they tend to be um only available
16:58to accredited investors and that kind of
17:00stuff. So what happens to all of those
17:02people in that chain? They have to adapt
17:04or die, right?
17:06>> They have to adapt or die. It's
17:08deflationary obviously. Um because the
17:12one thing about
17:14the industry of asset management is and
17:17we all know this we make returns we
17:20don't make things and those returns
17:24are judged by someone on whether they
17:26can understand them because if if they
17:30did it based on true historical returns
17:32then Bitcoin would be much higher than
17:34it is today because it's been the best
17:36performing asset over the last 15 years.
17:38If it was a hedge fund and it had a
17:39human being describing what it did and
17:41you had the same returns as Bitcoin, it
17:43would be many, many trillions of dollars
17:45more than it is today. But because it's
17:47a black box, there's no story. There's
17:49no narrative. Human beings have a hard
17:50time. The one thing about asset
17:52management is that younger people are
17:54very comfortable not having a human
17:56being deal with them. And so the way
17:57that I viewed this is it will take some
17:59time, but this is a massive disruption
18:03to asset managers. And let me break it
18:05into two parts. The one part you're
18:06saying is if you believe in
18:08diversification, if you believe that by
18:10investing in 10,000 assets that are
18:12possibly yielding between 8 and 10%. The
18:16diversification of choosing
18:18things that get paid off movie royalties
18:20that get paid. Think about every single
18:22thing you can and you diversify and
18:24everyone you're choosing from is
18:26returning 8 to 10% with a good sharp
18:28ratio, but they're completely
18:29uncorrelated. You are by definition
18:32creating a better return stream that
18:33will have no volatility. you're
18:34basically replicating what the
18:36millenniums and the citadels have been
18:37able to do over time. And so I think
18:39that that's the thing people are missing
18:40is it might take a little time, but
18:42eventually the diversification
18:44opportunities, the instant ability to
18:46find this many strategies and find a
18:48thousand of them because when you meet a
18:50pension fund, their biggest issue is
18:51well I I can't find a manager that can
18:53handle the money that I have and still
18:56generate the returns. Well, if you can
18:58invest in every single person in the
19:00Philippines and everything like that
19:01through a democratization, you can
19:03create an 8 to 10% return stream with a
19:05tuval and all of a sudden now you have
19:07all this money. But the other thing,
19:08Raul, and I think this is the most
19:10important thing for you and I, we grew
19:11up and we've traded markets overnight
19:14and as macro people, it's very tiring.
19:17It's a young person's business.
19:20[laughter]
19:21>> Oh, Japan moved. I got
19:22>> I'm still scarred by [ __ ] Tokyo in
19:25the middle of the night. dollar yen
19:26blowing up. He's like, "Oh god, you're
19:28woken up." Yeah, that's why I laughed.
19:31[laughter]
19:31>> So, and and again, I remember that too,
19:34like you you go to bed hoping the phone
19:36doesn't ring, hoping nothing happens.
19:39Well, think about when it's 247 starting
19:41this year, and it already has started
19:43with Iran hyperlquid, with um the SpaceX
19:46IPO. Like I don't think people realize
19:49it is not a human being's game to have
19:5124/7 trading and what that is going to
19:54mean for stop- losses, emotional
19:55decisions, no sleep. So I just think the
19:58disruption is going to come from human
19:59beings realizing they can't play a game
20:01that the that the bots can play better.
20:04>> And how I look at it like a macro level
20:06and um interesting to hear your views on
20:08this is let's take an asset management
20:10firm, an aggregator firm like
20:12Millennium. So what does Millennium do?
20:14There's the mother ship which allocates
20:16capital compliance, you know, all of the
20:21operational functions and then you've
20:23got a bunch of pods which is return
20:28streams of which they're um you know
20:31there's a quite large diversity. All of
20:34those essentially become whether it's
20:36individuals or individuals agents
20:41and the mother ship doesn't need all the
20:43the massive infrastructure because
20:45everything's tokenized. So it it kind of
20:48changes that entire asset management
20:50game. And we could do that for
20:52everything, a pension plan, everything,
20:54not just a hedge fund. It's the same
20:56thing. And it completely disrupts the
20:58whole system and where the fees are
20:59earned and who earns the fees and how it
21:01acrs. as you said, it's it's
21:03deflationary more than anything else
21:04because the fees are just going to
21:05collapse.
21:06>> Yeah. And the great thing for let's use
21:10Millennium and De Shaw and take ones
21:12that are much more bot driven already
21:14and then ones that are using technology
21:16and AI with inside their business. And
21:18let's just say um they're the perfect
21:20places for the AI agents to basically
21:24dis I don't want to say disrupt their
21:26business, but they have a story to tell
21:29and they have a black box. They don't
21:31give you the details of every single
21:33thing. They don't go through it. You're
21:34in a long-term lockup. They have the
21:36ability of kind of building out the
21:38agentic side with inside, reducing their
21:40cost structure dramatically.
21:42>> Marshall Waste just announced that they
21:44they've been doing this.
21:45>> Yeah. And and I think they're the
21:47natural places to basically do this.
21:49They have the money to do it. So, they
21:51already have the technology side. They
21:52already have all the engineers. So, I
21:54think they'll be the ones first that are
21:56actually disrupting everything. They'll
21:58be competing more with retail, but I
22:00think you're going to see the rest of
22:02the business kind of go through this.
22:03It'll just happen, like you said before,
22:06it's a merging of two worlds. It's the
22:08human side merging with the bot side,
22:10and it's going to happen together. And
22:12the bigger places have the first
22:13advantage because they can do it very
22:15easily and very cheaply.
22:17>> And what's weird is, you know, people
22:19hear the term tokenization, but they
22:22only get so far. Oh yes, equities are
22:25going to go on chain or oh yes, I can
22:28get rid of my shitty credit fund by
22:30putting it on chain and selling it to,
22:31you know, end customers because I' got
22:33no buyers. But they don't realize how
22:36disruptive this is because everything,
22:38all funds will go on chain, people's
22:41return streams will go on chain, AI
22:43agents will go on chain, they all become
22:45investable and it a velocity of capital
22:48goes up violently. That's another thing.
22:51>> Yeah. And so you and I have talked about
22:54this before and I think we're both on
22:55the same page as this. Um what I believe
22:58tokenization will be a year from now is
23:00a recognition by everyone that um what's
23:03happening in the stock market right now.
23:05So I use Nvidia as like the example. Uh
23:09Nvidia has blown away earnings since
23:12October of last year. But as of
23:13yesterday's close and let's just say a
23:16couple days after their most recent
23:17earnings, the stock was effectively
23:20unchanged from October. And when the
23:22most recent earnings report came out,
23:24they blew away numbers in a way we've
23:26never seen before. Um, I mean, the
23:28street was expecting 44% revenue growth
23:30for next year and they said it's going
23:32to be 70. And that was the company, I'm
23:34sure, handcuffing this like they all do
23:37to some degree. So, the stock hadn't
23:40moved. And every earnings report that's
23:44good now, if you were a trader in the
23:47late 90s and even the early 2000s, if if
23:51company beat by that much, you expect to
23:53get rewarded for it. I don't think
23:55that's happening anymore. And so I I
23:58showed on my most recent video that if
23:59you take Nvidia relative to the S&P,
24:03it's basically up it's outperformed the
24:05S&P by I think 40% over the prior two
24:08years, 26 months. But there was one
24:11corridor of four months where that
24:13entire outperformance happened. The rest
24:15of the 20 months it did nothing. And
24:19what that tells me is if volumes and
24:21velocity are going up, the toll
24:24collectors are going to start making the
24:26money. Essenth
24:28of a basis point, a hundth of a basis
24:30point, and this is where crypto fits in.
24:33I don't think you can match up
24:35fundamentals in terms of the narrative
24:37with the performance anymore. more. And
24:39so if you can't create alpha by just
24:41saying this company's going to beat
24:42earnings and this is going to go through
24:43the way you could in the past, then I
24:46think toll collectors are going to make
24:47the money because it's just a lot of
24:48spinning your wheels and no one really
24:50making any money betting on this stuff.
24:52You get paid as the house by the volume
24:54and less about this. This is where I
24:56think it's going over the next few
24:57years.
24:58>> Yeah, I think I'm a big believer that
25:00almost everything will end up being a
25:02marketplace. So you know even a platform
25:05like real vision will become a
25:06marketplace for you know investing in
25:08people but then at a bigger level if you
25:10think what do the agents consume? Well
25:13they obviously consume
25:15energy and compute.
25:16>> Mhm.
25:17>> Um but the other thing they consume and
25:20people haven't put this two and two
25:22together is data.
25:24They need more and more data over time.
25:27And so that means that an agent-driven
25:30data marketplace is probably the biggest
25:32marketplace that will ever exist because
25:36all information has to be absorbed into
25:38the beast for it to grow from a AGI to
25:41ASI, right? There's you have to and so
25:44it's going to suck in every single piece
25:46of information that is possibly has some
25:48informationational value and they'll
25:50trade at different prices and who gets
25:52the monopoly on the data, who doesn't,
25:54and that'll all be a hidden market. We
25:55won't even see it. There's no prices on
25:57a screen. It just happens.
25:59>> Yeah. Luckily for all of us, um it'll
26:01take such a long time to get to that
26:04because of the video side, meaning the
26:06ability of taking in everything that we
26:08see and comprehend, which is far more
26:10data than the actual data in a computer
26:13screen. We're just not at the we're not
26:17at the data center side of the the video
26:19side. We don't have pure humanoids
26:22ability to navigate through everything
26:23in the street. And it's going to take a
26:25lot of data. that's going to take a lot
26:26more compute. Only reason I bring it up
26:28is um I have started to recognize that
26:32the merging of these two if it wasn't
26:34for the compute shortage that we have
26:36right now relative to the capabilities
26:39and the acceleration of the intelligence
26:42uh it would be a much more dystopian
26:44world. I'm becoming less worried about
26:46the world merging together because of
26:48the friction of politics, because of the
26:50friction of human beings, because of the
26:52bottleneck frictions of physics. All of
26:55these things are actually making it more
26:57comfortable for me that we won't get to
26:59the point of AGI happening too fast.
27:02It'll happen. It probably already has
27:04happened depending on or it already has
27:05happened depending on your definition.
27:07But the merging of the worlds of humans
27:09in this, it's giving us enough time to
27:10actually think about it and go through
27:12the thought process while we're worrying
27:14about how it's going to play out. Uh and
27:16so I'm I'm getting more comfortable that
27:18the frictions are good, not bad.
27:20>> Yeah, I agree. and we're seeing the the
27:23rise of world models versus LLMs and I
27:25think the whole thing converges
27:27>> but you know I'm here in Napa I've
27:29rented a Tesla and I haven't actually
27:32driven once I touch the pedal it just
27:35drives you around you know so a lot of
27:37it's here already and people don't
27:39realize it what Google's been able to
27:40train off video itself there's a lot
27:43there and then you're seeing there was
27:45yesterday a I think it was called Atlas
27:47did you see that there's a video
27:49generation model I mean these are wild
27:51now. You cannot tell what's film, what's
27:53not film.
27:54>> So, it's you can see all the component
27:56parts are just
27:58>> blending together. But you say, as you
28:00say, I mean, it's a lot of compute and
28:02we just don't have it.
28:03>> Yeah, we don't have it. And that's why
28:05from an investable standpoint, we're
28:07we're we're never we're not going to get
28:09to the point that we can overbuild
28:10because we're just I mean, we might
28:12short term we could over buy things and
28:14we could have inventories grow up, but
28:16we're we're not going to use all the
28:17compute because we need so much of it
28:19for everything. And there whenever you
28:21come up with oh I guess there there will
28:23be enough compute because we've reached
28:25this point and you realize no the world
28:27models and everything else and then when
28:28you hear how much more compute I just
28:31think that the part and it was probably
28:34that I heard speak recently uh who
28:36you've had on a bunch of times and I
28:37know you know well where he was a little
28:40bit more concerned uh and I don't know
28:45how much of this was the book he wrote
28:47and how much is actually what he
28:49believes Humanoids are going to take
28:51some time and they're the ones that I
28:54focus a lot of the attention on. Yes, I
28:56know we will have humanoids. Yes, I know
28:58by 2030 they might be more than is in my
29:01head now. But before they're driving
29:03their own car to the delivery before all
29:05of these things, politicians and human
29:08beings have to get comfortable with
29:09this. And full self-driving is already
29:11here, but it's not accepted. You don't
29:13see these cars on the road. And that
29:15should be the easiest one. That argument
29:18of less people will die should be
29:20enough. But because of that, I don't
29:22know how humanoids don't take a a lot
29:25longer to be integrated into society.
29:27>> Yeah. And if you think about how long
29:29it's taken Elon to train the cars to do
29:31what they do.
29:32>> Yep. and he's got to get Optimus out.
29:34And yes, there's, you know, abilities
29:36have increased, but they'll only be
29:38putting specific things first, you know,
29:40on a factory line or in a service center
29:43or whatever it is at first because they
29:46just don't have the compute capacity to
29:49they have the intelligence because
29:50they've got the LLMs, but they don't
29:52have the visual spatial awareness that
29:55they need to navigate the normal world,
29:57the human world. So, they have to be in
30:00restricted environments. They can still
30:01scale massively there, but as you said,
30:04we're a long way from robots walking
30:06down the street, you know, delivering
30:08coffee in humanoid format. It's already
30:12happening in, you know, in other robots.
30:14You see them in streets everywhere now
30:16delivering stuff. So where where I've
30:18started this point is really important
30:20for people to hear when they start
30:21thinking about the concept of PPI and
30:25input costs because I've started to
30:27think more and more about how humanoids
30:30their their most important function over
30:32the next 5 years is going to be in
30:34mines. It's going to be in all parts of
30:37dangerous jobs related to manufacturing.
30:39There's no doubt about it. Um China's
30:41already doing this. if you go look up
30:43mining and the reason I was doing this
30:44is because when I get in discussions and
30:46people go gold or bitcoin I go bitcoin
30:48every single time and they go well you
30:50but you believe in gold and I went you
30:52didn't ask me that if you ask me what I
30:53think will outperform it's because and
30:56actually one of the most famous macro
30:59investors we got into a long discussion
31:01about this in the last 48 hours so my
31:04video came out he wanted to talk about
31:06bitcoin he wanted to talk about
31:07tokenization but then it migrated and I
31:09said but don't you understand that if we
31:12can find more gold and get it easier
31:14because of humanoids, then the capacity
31:16of gold goes up. The reason I'm more
31:18interested in Bitcoin is because it's
31:19chosen by human beings like gold.
31:22There's a community of people that
31:24believe in it, but it's the digital side
31:26and there's a scarcity element to it
31:27that is real. He wanted to talk about
31:30the disruption of hacking and things
31:32like that. And I got him to the point of
31:33AI will hack everything that your brain
31:36can think of, including gold. It will
31:38hack it. it already has hacked it at
31:39CERN. It's only a question of can we get
31:42enough hacking in there to actually
31:45change the ability of the supply side of
31:47anything. And he agreed by the time the
31:50end that you can't pick one and say AI
31:52is going to hack this but not hack
31:53something else. So I think humanoids is
31:55going to have a bigger impact on the
31:56input cost of commodities and us getting
31:59us closer to abundance of cheaper
32:01commodities. So, I I've started to
32:03believe, especially with things like oil
32:05and copper and all of these things,
32:07people might be underestimating how
32:09we're we're going to grow in these, but
32:10I don't think it's ever going to go
32:11parabolic. So, a quick break in your
32:14regular programming. If you're serious
32:16about your future, grab my free report
32:18called Prepare for 2030. I think you've
32:21got 5 years to make as much money as
32:23possible, and this guide will help you
32:25navigate what's coming. The link is in
32:27the description. Download it now. So
32:30let's just go back to the bottleneck of
32:33energy because this is something we all
32:35need to think through. I agree with you.
32:38One of the things I think we have a we
32:40might have talked about this before an
32:41extended or super cycle here is because
32:45you can't have the excess because you
32:47can't build the data centers fast
32:48enough. And then you got this the
32:50political weird slant in the US that
32:53people don't want a data center. I don't
32:55know what they think data centers are
32:57apart from just [ __ ] buildings. I
32:59mean, it's the it's the weirdest thing.
33:02So, I'd love to hear about the energy
33:03bottleneck and the US political slant to
33:07all of this, which I just can't get my
33:09head around.
33:10So I my head has gotten to the point on
33:13this that I'm less I've become much less
33:16worried about the the data center side
33:19in terms of it being a political issue
33:21because it has forced just like um with
33:25China the way deep sea came out of uh
33:28innovation I don't think people give
33:30enough credit to how much the behind the
33:32meter innovation has been out of control
33:34in the US for building the data centers
33:36we have more natural gas than we need we
33:39have pipelines in many many locations
33:41that don't have to deal with the the
33:44data centers. So I think a lot of these
33:46issues are because data centers were
33:48going to be built in places that we're
33:51probably more vulnerable to this and
33:53since that time since when you start and
33:55announce a data center and you're going
33:57to do it somewhere near a town um and it
34:00takes a year to get going and go through
34:02all the well since then with Colossus
34:05and all of the behind the meter
34:07solutions that have come out I just
34:08think whether it's taking turbines from
34:11old airplanes and then turning them into
34:13gas turbine whatever the case is the
34:15innovation has been through the roof and
34:17so I think we've solved let's say the
34:19the ultimate problem which is we just
34:21move to areas that are better. Um the
34:24demand for it still grows exponentially
34:26but that fits back into the problem of
34:28if it was able to be built we'd have
34:31more data centers being built right now
34:33without the bottlenecks of turbines and
34:35all these problems. So again I'm going
34:37to air on the side that we don't want it
34:38to go too fast. We we I I just think it
34:41would be a much bigger negative for the
34:43capital markets. Then you'd really see
34:44the pressure on the bond market. Um I
34:46think too much too soon is probably a
34:48bad thing and we'd probably get an
34:50overbuild. So I'm going to view the data
34:52centers again the friction as being a
34:54positive.
34:54>> Yeah, I'm of the same route there. So
34:58what else are you looking at right now?
34:59What talk when you let's go back to the
35:01tokenization conversation jumping around
35:03a bit. So you initially when you came
35:06into crypto was very you were very
35:09focused on Bitcoin and you know once it
35:11becomes understandable it's a very
35:13>> logical asset. Now when you're seeing
35:15through the world of tokenization
35:17where's your head going to here
35:19>> in what that future world looks like
35:21because I think that's important because
35:22a lot of people don't understand this
35:23because it used to be a world where
35:25there were like competing things and
35:27that they're not really anymore.
35:29No, I I this this journey um and I get I
35:33think starting as a as a let's say a
35:36Bitcoin as an asset and a maxi type
35:38person and just not believing in uh at
35:44the time in the innovation side and I I
35:46still have that belief that if you ask
35:47me over the next 20 years what am I most
35:50certain of it's that Bitcoin will still
35:52be here and it will be the best asset. I
35:54don't know if any of the other tokens
35:56will still be growing at that point in
35:59value, but there will be innovations
36:01along the way. And that's what I've kind
36:02of come to the conclusion of, and this
36:03goes for public equities as well. So,
36:06where I've got with tokenization is just
36:08the importance of it. I spoke at the New
36:10York Stock Exchange uh to just a
36:13grouping of Korean brokers, retail, like
36:16a hundred of them that were there.
36:18Tokenization is real. It's going to
36:20happen. And it is a race. And this is
36:22one of the things that I recognize that
36:24I don't hear enough people talk about.
36:25We all hear about AI as a race and the
36:27pressure it's putting on, but I don't
36:29think people realize that tokenization
36:31and having it in your country, having
36:33everything on chain is going to become
36:36more critical. So, if you're lagging and
36:38you're not onchain and your assets are
36:40not there, it hurts your market. It
36:42hurts the ability for people to buy it
36:44because they're going to be using their
36:46wallet. This stuff is all going to
36:47happen. It's much cheaper to do. They
36:49can invest quickly. the programmable
36:51nature of it has become something that
36:52I've spent enough time on and just
36:54realized the value of it from so many
36:55different things, how it should be. So
36:58when I've thought about just what a
37:00portfolio will look like and the merging
37:02of the way old school public equities
37:04and debt is with tokenization, the fact
37:06that to actually get to tokenization of
37:08real world assets, you actually had to
37:10get tokenization first of the cash and
37:12collateral, you needed money market
37:14funds, you needed treasury. So you kind
37:16of go through the evolution and you
37:18realize, whoa, we're there. and some of
37:20the new products. And I think this is
37:21because of Robin Hood in particular. I
37:24just think Robin Hood is a perfect place
37:28for the merging of what's kind of crypto
37:31and not kind of crypto. I think they're
37:33a perfect middle ground to have the
37:36community. They have a I don't know if
37:38you've been to any of their events. They
37:39have a strong community. Like people
37:41love their community and people love the
37:43real vision real vision community. Like
37:45communities are really important, but
37:47having a community where their chain is
37:50growing rapidly on the tokenization side
37:52in a short amount of time and you're
37:53seeing those volumes. I just think
37:55people are underestimating the
37:56importance of globally people wanting to
37:59trade 247 hoping that liquidity is
38:02around the clock and that it is being
38:04and I think this is all part of the way
38:06the world is going to be. So I have been
38:08um completely taken taken back by it.
38:12Uh, and the questions I'm now getting
38:14asked by macro people are really good
38:15ones. What happens to the dollar in
38:18tokenization? Like that question. I
38:20don't know if you've thought about it.
38:21It's a great question to have.
38:22>> I wanted to raise Let's talk about this
38:24for a bit because where my head is at
38:26with all of this is there's one country
38:29has the most attractive assets in the
38:30world right now. It's the United States.
38:33The moment you put it on chain, the
38:35equity market, it just attracts even
38:38more capital. It crowds everybody out.
38:41And the dollar is the same because the
38:42dollar now goes to the end of the line
38:45to the individual when it had to go
38:47through the euro dollar markets before
38:49that's all gone. So, you know, if I
38:51think when people talk about the the
38:53collapse of the dollar, whatever, my
38:55view has been and the same with Brent
38:57Johnson is that it dies of its own of
39:00its strength because if you do that, the
39:03dollar will be so strong. It's already
39:06been strong over the last decade and a
39:08half over time, just cyclical. Um, but
39:11if you're going to get every investor
39:13because why would you bother to invest
39:14in you know some European you know
39:18whatever it is kind packaging company
39:20when you can buy Nvidia it's like it's
39:24very hard or SpaceX it's very hard not
39:26to attract all of the capital.
39:29So I although I agree from a so I've
39:34broken this down into two parts. you're
39:36you're bringing up the transaction part
39:38and the um if people have to invest the
39:41the issue is right now uh 75% of the
39:45investing dollars of the world via MSCI
39:48world are in the US already so from an
39:50equity basis they're already there I
39:52have viewed um public equities as being
39:55an issue relative to entrepreneurs so 10
39:59years from now I don't think US equities
40:02the growth perspective is going to be
40:04the same that way people see them now. I
40:06I think entrepreneurs around the globe
40:09who use AI of which countries that are
40:12poorer in my opinion are adopting AI
40:14faster. Um they're using AI faster and
40:17the reason is because
40:18>> they want to and they have to. And so I
40:20know you you remember this. I have
40:22viewed the AXI Infinity example
40:26>> as something everyone needs to go study
40:28and just realize that that that example
40:31of how an economy grows virtually. Um,
40:34people need to think about that with
40:36tokenization in my opinion because I I
40:38just I studied that. That's what re
40:39originally got me so interested in in
40:42crypto the ecosystem was what was
40:44happening with Daxi Infinity. The other
40:46part of the dollar is control. So from a
40:48geopolitical basis, tokenization and all
40:50these things, I think the control goes
40:52down because of stable coins and all
40:54this. So I agree that there's a positive
40:56force of the dollar. I think there's a
40:58negative force which is the more that
41:00everything goes on chain the less
41:03control the US has over swift the less
41:05the US has control over sanctions and
41:07then it just becomes something where
41:08over time there's no such thing as a
41:10collapse I view everything as dollars
41:13will migrate and distribute around the
41:15globe and it'll take a while for
41:16entrepreneurs to compete with Google but
41:18they will they'll compete with everyone
41:20so it's a gradual kind of growing of the
41:22private entrepreneur market and a
41:24shrinking of the enterprise market
41:26>> it's the old trend of bundling,
41:28unbundling, centralization,
41:30decentralization.
41:31>> And that's what's happened. I mean, look
41:33at what you and I are doing ourselves
41:34with AI. We would have hired a company
41:37to build these things for us. It would
41:38have taken us 6 months, 9 months. It
41:41wouldn't been perfect. And then and now
41:43we're just doing it on the fly. And
41:46that's showing you the direction of
41:48travel is that the the the centralized
41:52approach in everything is about to go.
41:55Now, there's going to be some
41:56centralized players. I mean, good luck
41:57trying to disrupt SpaceX, but you know.
42:00[laughter]
42:02>> Yes. But I I agree with you. I I think
42:04um AI and and crypto, those are the two
42:07most powerful parts of it is they're
42:09they are truly decentralizing. They are
42:11borderless. It allows people to not
42:13think about things the way that we all
42:15think about them because of the way we
42:16grow grew up. And I already think kids
42:18are down that path because of the way
42:21things have been with video games, the
42:23way things were with every single part
42:26of kind of the growth of crypto in 2021
42:28and 2022 during COVID. We will all look
42:31back on that as the beginning of really
42:33this move into the virtual world for the
42:35younger generation in a very big way
42:37into crypto. I know with my son that's
42:39when he first got into it and it drove
42:41me into it because I didn't think the
42:43metaverse made sense other than the fact
42:45that I watched him play video games and
42:46he was already in the metaverse in 2016
42:49um and this was just another extension
42:51of it. So we forgot all those things. I
42:53know you're heavy into NFTTS. NFTs fit
42:56into that as well. I just think that um
42:58it will take some change. But the one
43:00thing that has always lasted with all
43:02human beings regardless of their age at
43:04the end of the day if nothing is growing
43:07except for the digital world and people
43:08will invest in the digital world. That's
43:10it. Like it if if you want growth in
43:12investing that's where you'll be. So I I
43:14tell you I just I was just thinking this
43:16morning was a great example of how the
43:18world has changed so much. So I've built
43:20this kind of huge GMI portal within Real
43:22Vision that has charts and analysis and
43:25AI compression to make sense of it all
43:28all of this stuff and you know across
43:29the different tiers and my AI checks the
43:32inbox the bugs at
43:33globalmicroinvestor.com
43:35and it pinged me this morning said a
43:36couple of really good ideas in there um
43:39that um people should be able to go
43:41around all these dashboards and tick
43:43their favorite charts and it should
43:45create a new page with their favorite
43:46charts and whatever. I said it's a great
43:48idea. let's build it. And I from getting
43:51that email to shipping it to everybody
43:56was 40 minutes of which I wasn't doing
43:58anything apart from occasionally talking
43:59into my whisper and it's launched on
44:01real vision and I'm like holy [ __ ]
44:04Imagine what that would be like before.
44:06You'd have to call up the company. You'd
44:08have to have meetings with them. You
44:09know, I want to develop this. they come
44:11back and you dis I mean the collapse in
44:14time and cost of developing stuff is
44:18stupid.
44:20>> Yeah. and obviously uh learning and
44:23that's really been my that's been my big
44:27thing has been how quickly I can learn a
44:29particular topic because of YouTube
44:32because of uh the ability of going into
44:36X and now not having to search and not
44:38know what's there but actually going to
44:39go and say give me the best posts on
44:42this particular topic and have it give
44:44it to me using and creating a knowledge
44:46brain and connecting into the YouTube
44:48API and creating the last 20 um video
44:53transcripts of Jensen Yuang or of Raul
44:56Pal or whomever and then to really get
44:58through this it has gotten to the point
45:00where since I launched my subscriber
45:03side and I get so many questions
45:05>> I don't want to give people the answers
45:07I want to give them basically the
45:09ability of doing it themselves and so my
45:11my thought has been empowerment and with
45:13Grockbot it hit me so hard when I
45:16started to use it and so this you know
45:17the past week I'd had so many people
45:19reach out after a video where I showed
45:21them all my agents like should
45:23[clears throat] I really get started?
45:24And I literally said, "Here's the deal,
45:26guys. I'm going to give you a five-page
45:27thing that all you have to do is
45:29literally paste this into Grockbot. You
45:31will have your chief of staff. You will
45:32have different components of it. He will
45:34set up all the agents and then you can
45:36just start conversing. And all you got
45:37to do is copy paste, copy paste, copy
45:39paste, let it go through its thing. And
45:41by having the ability of having a
45:44YouTube that gets enough people, having
45:46subscribers and getting through it, your
45:47your point's valid. It's like I I'm
45:50trying to empower people to make sure
45:51they use AI and to feel like they're
45:53growing, but the ability of not only
45:54giving them answers, giving them
45:56homework to do on their own and then
45:57realizing that the amount of people have
45:59reached out saying, "I never thought I
46:01could do any of this type of stuff." You
46:02know how empowering because I remember
46:03when you came to my office and you asked
46:05me a question about how I was using it
46:07and you're like, "Oh my god, we I got to
46:09do that, too." And we were kind of
46:11exchanging information on how we were
46:12using it. So having a community
46:14community of of empowered users is just
46:17great.
46:18Yeah. And but so many people have this
46:21fear barrier. It's like and Grockbot is
46:24really good because you can just in very
46:26natural language say, "Hey, read my X
46:28feed and tell me what I've missed on AI
46:33every day and give me a summary." And it
46:35just does it. You don't It just says,
46:36"Oh, do you want me to connect to this?"
46:37And you go, "Yes, yes, yes. Done." You
46:40don't have to do anything. No, it's um
46:44it it as far as I'm concerned um other
46:47than see chat GBT all you had to do was
46:50kind of do what you did in Google search
46:52and it didn't take much learning.
46:55this this situation where you recognize
46:58the power of having people working for
47:01you and being able to say, "Hey, put
47:04together the newspaper for me of what I
47:06care about and have it ready for me at 5
47:08in the morning, which I have it do for
47:10me in crypto." And then I give it the
47:12websites that I wanted to go search on
47:14and just give me the most important
47:15things, match them up with X, and make
47:18sure these are trending stories as well.
47:21Like I don't think people realize that
47:22like customizing the news that you want
47:25have it delivered to you from overnight.
47:28It's just a very powerful thing to be
47:30able to do using something like that
47:31where
47:32>> and that's one of the most simple things
47:33to do now.
47:34>> Exactly.
47:35>> It's really not it's really not that
47:37complicated. But how do you deal with we
47:40we briefly touched on this in the
47:41beginning. How do you deal with all of
47:43having all of the agents and all of the
47:45scheduled tasks and all of the things?
47:47cuz I find if I'm not careful, it's like
47:49two hours of my morning is fixing [ __ ]
47:51that didn't happen. The Google Drive
47:53connector went down, this happened, and
47:55then I've spent the last two days
47:57working with my COO to go and
47:59automatically fix all this stuff. And
48:01then that doesn't it's like it's not
48:03it's not simple all the time.
48:06>> Well, Open Claw was what you described
48:09to me was what I went through with
48:10OpenClaw. Eventually, Hermes exact same
48:12thing. So whenever anyone says this is
48:15perfect, it it was never perfect ever.
48:18Um you had to deal with errors that
48:20would pop up and you did have to deal
48:21with your computer, you know, and true
48:24story, uh cleaning lady comes over and
48:28[laughter] closes my my my
48:31laptop and all of a sudden I'm like,
48:32"Wait, where's my agent?" And I'm like
48:34asking him, there's nothing going on and
48:36I I can't get anything. Now I don't have
48:38to deal with that with Grockbot. And so
48:41it still makes errors, but I've only
48:44been using it for less than whatever 3
48:46weeks. And it's not perfect. But I will
48:50tell you the ability of going in and
48:52signing into my actual log on on Twitter
48:54and it being able to go through my lists
48:56of stuff is very powerful to do that
48:59with anything that I want software-wise
49:01and have it on a virtual computer that
49:03it's going in. It does a lot of things
49:06where I think the more important thing
49:08is the getting used to it, knowing how
49:10to use it, what it can be good for, and
49:12that way when it actually gets better,
49:14which you know it will in a year from
49:15now it'll be completely different than
49:17it is today. You [snorts] have to
49:18develop the brain set of knowing how
49:20you'd use it.
49:21>> Yeah. But now I've got the problem is
49:23I've got agents on Grockbot, agents on
49:25Hermes, agents on Claude,
49:29you know, and now I need an COO across
49:31all of my a [laughter]
49:34I've migrated some of my stuff over
49:36already, but I don't think I went as far
49:40into it as as you did. Um, I I will tell
49:44you one of the best things that I used
49:47them for is something that I is very
49:49similar to my days at Morgan Stanley and
49:51at the hedge fund, which was using them
49:54as a team of people, calling a meeting.
49:55We all get together. I tell the chief of
49:57staff, "Let's get together. I have this
49:59problem that I want to solve for." And I
50:00had a situation last week where the way
50:03that I did my videos, um, the company
50:05that the software I used basically said
50:07they were going out of business on a
50:09Wednesday. Now, I do my video recording
50:11on a Friday. So,
50:14I had to put this together in a
50:16completely different way. So, I called a
50:18staff meeting and I went in a Grockpot
50:20and I literally went through it and I
50:22said, "All right, how are we going to
50:23solve this problem? What's the best way
50:24to get through it?" And I'm telling you,
50:27Row, it was literally like being a
50:28Morgan Stanley, being a managing
50:30director, having everyone come into the
50:31room. We got a problem to solve. Let's
50:32solve it. And we got to the point and
50:35literally it was, okay, you should use
50:37Google Slides to do it, which is what I
50:39did, ended up doing over the weekend.
50:41And in the end, when I asked them, okay,
50:44is this going to save me time? And they
50:45said, it'll definitely save you time.
50:47Now, along the way to learn Google
50:49Slides, so it's one thing for them to
50:51say, you should use Google Slides. Well,
50:52if it's not something I use all the
50:54time, I needed them to help me along the
50:57way of, okay, will you make sure you're
50:59on top of this? Who's the expert on
51:00Google Slides? And so that agent I
51:02worked with one by one by one until I
51:05was able to do it. And it took me, I
51:07want to say, a few hours to honestly not
51:10be an expert at Google Slides, but now I
51:13can do a 100 video slide video. And I
51:17was able to do that switch over from a a
51:19Wednesday to a Thursday morning. And you
51:22know how stressful that type of stuff
51:24can be when you're wanting to get
51:25something done that you do regularly. So
51:28>> it's just it's a it's amazing.
51:31I've had many people now ask me I wrote
51:33about in GMI actually. I'm like this is
51:35what I'm using AI for and this is what
51:37I've built and I'm in the middle of
51:39building and people are like holy [ __ ]
51:42I'm like yeah it's a lot. It's a lot.
51:46Now I got a question for you. How many
51:48people do you meet?
51:50because we're right around the same age,
51:52our age. So, straddling the 60 uh area
51:56that are not
51:59technology people like I always had
52:01people working for me. You had people
52:02working for me. You didn't need to be an
52:03expert. How many people do you meet our
52:06age non-technology people that you see
52:08using it as actively and in the ways
52:10that we are?
52:11>> Zero.
52:13>> They have to be running a business
52:16even then.
52:18>> Yeah, you're right. Think of your
52:19friends.
52:20>> Yeah.
52:21>> Your kind of the people you grew up
52:22with, not friends that you know from X
52:25and this world, but
52:27>> even when you go to your trading friends
52:29and people who work at hedge funds, they
52:32might have an analyst who's using AI to
52:34do stuff. Nobody's doing what we're
52:36doing. But then everybody, the other
52:40group around me, everybody's doing this.
52:43But in in the world, in the traditional
52:45world, they're not.
52:48It's like it's really weird.
52:50>> I it's it's impossible for me to
52:52describe and and so
52:56my business so we've been talking like
52:58every 3 months. So I launched my
53:01subscriber side in February of this year
53:04and the amount of things I put up every
53:06week.
53:07>> Is that all? It feels like it's much
53:08longer.
53:09>> No. Well, the YouTube started two years
53:11ago. That's right.
53:12>> I didn't actually start a subscriber
53:14wall until February. And what has
53:17happened and this is the most
53:18unbelievable thing it forget forget the
53:22growth in the community that's great and
53:23I appreciate everyone doing I'm more how
53:25much work I do a week that gets uploaded
53:27to there for them it's anywhere from
53:327 to 12 things a week that I build I
53:36upload in there these are from code that
53:38I write or have built for me they're
53:40ideas that I come up with I'm starting a
53:43crypto portion that will be part of the
53:45site as of the end of this month. And
53:47that's why I'm spending so much time on
53:49tokenization and I'm built I built out
53:51um and and you I don't know if you've
53:53done this. I I I have talked to Jamie a
53:56bunch of times. We've conver you know um
53:59shared information on this but my whole
54:01belief has been that if you take an
54:02equal weight of the ecosystem of the
54:04best
54:06tokens covering a diversified in my case
54:0910 sectors with inside crypto and you
54:12put in any public stocks like circle I
54:15even have Robin Hood I have PayPal into
54:17this into the different verticals of the
54:19merging
54:20the correlation between that equal wake
54:22basket with Bitcoin is close to one
54:25there's not much difference when you go
54:27through it. And the reason I wanted to
54:28do that is I've said to people, you have
54:30to understand from my perspective, the
54:32S&P 500 is this amorphous thing. It it
54:35doesn't mean anything. It it has
54:36innovation that gets rid of the losers
54:38and keeps the winners and it changes.
54:40And if you believe in hyper competition
54:42and hyper speed, that means growth
54:44companies will be leaving it faster than
54:46they've ever left it before because you
54:48will be disrupted. You will be moved
54:50out. And we've obviously seen that fears
54:52over um the software names and you've
54:54seen it even with anthropic and people
54:56get worried that their AR has stalled
54:58and I do believe that we're in this
54:59hyperco competitive world. So my endgame
55:02has always been the same which is what
55:03Bitcoin ends up representing is the only
55:05true scarcity thing of a store of value.
55:07So if you're make if your job investing
55:09is to pick things that are growing and
55:11then they stop growing your job is to
55:12get rid of that and find the next
55:14grower. Well, while you're looking for
55:15the next grower, you need to put your
55:17money into a store of value. So, Bitcoin
55:19theoretically should equal all of that.
55:21And it does. And that's what makes me
55:23feel good. And that's what again brings
55:25me back to the point of when you're
55:27using AI and you're on top of how fast
55:29the world is changing. And that Bitcoin
55:31is directly related to the disruption
55:33from AI. It's related to the fact that
55:35in a world of abundance, you need to
55:37find things that are truly scarce that
55:39people believe in. And there's not many
55:41things that are truly scarce that people
55:42believe in. There's plenty of things
55:44that are scarce right now, but I don't
55:46believe they'll be scarce in the future.
55:47And that's where it always ends up as
55:49Bitcoin ends up being here. And along
55:50the way, we pick and choose innovations
55:52that we think are going to do well. I
55:54think Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin
55:56over the next year because of the
55:57tokenization boom and the stable coin
55:59boom and what we said about the volume,
56:01the velocity, and people understanding
56:03theoretically Ethereum is a commodity
56:05related to the blockchain. And if
56:06there's only a certain amount of places,
56:08we're going to run into compute. And so
56:10I've kind of said to people, it's not a
56:11direct relationship, but I view Ethereum
56:14because of the trust factor of this
56:15merge. And I'd like to hear your because
56:17I know you've been into other into
56:19Salana in Suie and other places that
56:21have gone through. My my belief has been
56:23that for the banks and all these people,
56:26Ethereum because of its size, because of
56:29the time it's been there and because of
56:30how difficult it is for people to trust
56:32something new, that the trust factor is
56:35going to be a very important part of the
56:36financial guard rails. And so I've
56:37started to accept the fact that I want
56:39to be in on top of the innovation
56:41related to tokenization. I want to be on
56:43top of what's going to happen. But
56:45that's where I've kind of gotten to with
56:46this whole subscriber thing on this.
56:48>> I think we spend far too much time,
56:52everybody, in choosing stuff to buy and
56:56sell.
56:58>> Agreed.
56:58>> Really, you could own
57:01Bitcoin,
57:03the NASDAQ,
57:05and probably do nothing else and you'll
57:07be fine,
57:09>> right? Well, if you want to own a bit of
57:10gold, but you got, you know, it doesn't
57:12really matter because it's, you know,
57:13Bitcoin does roughly the same kind of
57:15thing. But, you know, that's all you
57:17need to actually do and you never need
57:19to turn on your screen again. And in
57:21crypto, I've got it down very simply is
57:23obviously Bitcoin.
57:25Um, I also like the Zcash
57:29privacy narrative. So, you have a little
57:32bit of that and a big bit of that. Okay,
57:34fine. But then you've got the whole
57:35smart contract layer, and that doesn't
57:36represent it at all. They're correlated,
57:38but they're not the same thing. And
57:40simply, I just used cloud
57:43and other big networks and said, well,
57:46there's generally
57:47four or five that are dominant and one
57:51is more dominant than others. And so,
57:52you just look at that and say, okay,
57:54well, what are they? Well, the two clear
57:56ones right now are Ethereum and Salana.
58:00And then you've got others and let's
58:02see. Hyperlquid's different because it's
58:03it's sort of more of a business built on
58:05blockchain. Um, and a lot of the others
58:08are businesses built on the technology.
58:10You know, what did cloud enable? What
58:12did all of these things enable? Um, and
58:15that's a harder bet right now because
58:17we're still early in the infrastructure
58:19bet. So, that's all I just think is like
58:21you just buy a basket of, you know,
58:23three to five smart contract chains. You
58:26can even market cap weight them for now.
58:28It's fine. And a bit of Bitcoin and a
58:30bit of Zcash and you just don't have to
58:32do anything. Or the other level of the
58:34portfolio is you just buy some NASDAQ,
58:36buy some Bitcoin, buy some ETH, buy some
58:39gold and and just don't do anything else
58:42for a long time. It's just and we yet we
58:45write so much and people want dashboards
58:47and business cycles and technical
58:49analysis and all of this stuff and
58:52actually you don't really need to.
58:54>> You weren't going to say stuff. I know
58:55what you're going to say.
58:57>> [laughter]
58:57>> Um, so wait, let's go let's go back then
58:59because another common
59:01>> by your face you're like, "Yeah, it's
59:03true." Um, [laughter]
59:04we uh we both love studying the human
59:08brain. We both love understanding um
59:10psychology, consciousness. So let's go
59:13back to what you said at the beginning.
59:15Why do you think people do this? Because
59:17I agree with you that it's completely
59:19unnecessary. So why do you think people
59:21do it? I have my own thoughts. I
59:25it's a sense of control of agency. It's
59:28like you have some control over your
59:30financial future. If you have a set it
59:32and forget it portfolio, it's like you
59:34have no control. It just does it. And
59:36yes, it probably works. Um but people
59:39feel like
59:42they feel a desperate need to get ahead.
59:44And we've talked about this before. You
59:45know, speculation, prediction markets,
59:48sports betting, it's all part of the
59:50same trend, which is people don't have
59:52enough money. debasement of currencies
59:53kind of screwed people over and they
59:55want to take control. So, but people
59:59turn themselves into knots over this
1:00:01stuff. I mean, I see it on the real
1:00:02vision platform, you know, that
1:00:04desperately searching for a guru or a
1:00:06system or a product or a something and
1:00:10it's like it doesn't exist, guys. It's
1:00:12like the markets are an amalgamation of
1:00:14all of us and that's what's in the
1:00:17price. Bizarrely
1:00:20>> I so I think um
1:00:24>> I doesn't mean to say you can't
1:00:25outperform or under you know all of that
1:00:27stuff you know the GMI track record is
1:00:29you know one of the best there's been
1:00:30but because that's time horizon really
1:00:34but yeah I don't know there's just some
1:00:36horrible truth to all of this
1:00:38>> so the reason people are willing to put
1:00:41100% of their money in
1:00:42>> it also doesn't sell newsletters
1:00:44>> correct [laughter] that is true well
1:00:47See, now we're getting to the different
1:00:48side. I'm more So, I've thought about
1:00:51why people complain and I live in
1:00:53Williamsburg. I see the building chat.
1:00:56Everyone complains. Everyone in this
1:00:58this place voted for Mandani. Like, it's
1:01:01it's a it's a unique place. So, they
1:01:02vote for Mandani. They complain about
1:01:04how expensive things are, but then I see
1:01:07them all traveling to the Hamptons, and
1:01:08I see them all going on flights, and I
1:01:10see them all spending money. So there's
1:01:12some disconnect because they say they're
1:01:14poor, but they live in a building that
1:01:16costs a lot of money and they're
1:01:17traveling all over the place. So I've
1:01:20kind of come to the belief that people
1:01:22are all looking for the next big thing
1:01:24and it's this hope that they found
1:01:26something that no one else found and
1:01:28they're going to make money and go
1:01:29through it because nobody the S&P 500
1:01:32you're investing in 500 companies. So if
1:01:34you put all of your money in the S&P
1:01:35500, you've invested in 500 companies.
1:01:39But if someone said, "I have all my
1:01:40money in the S&P 500." Like, "Well, you
1:01:42should put more in the NASDAQ. You
1:01:43should put it here." And by the time
1:01:43you're done, it's like, "Well, you've
1:01:44diversified into such a level." But if
1:01:47you say, "I've invested all my money in
1:01:48Bitcoin." People think you're crazy.
1:01:50>> And the reason is because it can it will
1:01:52be gone. And I view it as being all
1:01:54things, but it's compounded.
1:01:57You don't need the next big thing. Like,
1:01:59it's compounded. To your point, NASDAQ,
1:02:01same thing. Why are you searching to
1:02:03compound at a higher level than two
1:02:05things that if you did them 50/50 have
1:02:08compounded at such a high level? If you
1:02:10make it a third, a third, a third with
1:02:11the S&P 500. Guys, since the Bitcoin
1:02:14white paper, you don't need to do
1:02:15anything else. You're outperforming
1:02:16everything that needs to happen. I just
1:02:18think people are never happy. And I
1:02:20think we're in this world where it's
1:02:22kind of playing out where the you're
1:02:24fighting you're you're going upstream
1:02:26because you're comparing yourself to
1:02:28people that have made so much money and
1:02:30it's in this world of assets going to
1:02:33the level they are $180 trillion in the
1:02:35US of net worth. I think it's this
1:02:38mystical thing that people believe
1:02:40they're going to they're going to get
1:02:41into that 180 trillion by just buying
1:02:43something at a penny that'll go up to a
1:02:45thousand. It's just not going to happen.
1:02:46And I think they should just compound in
1:02:48in the things that work like you.
1:02:49>> Yeah. And focus on increasing your
1:02:51income.
1:02:52>> Exactly.
1:02:53>> That's the thing that actually makes the
1:02:54difference because you have more ability
1:02:56to invest. You can dollar cost average.
1:02:58You can compound over time. People
1:03:00forget that bit. If you if you figure a
1:03:04way to just take the compounding and you
1:03:06take the NASDAQ, S&P, and Bitcoin since
1:03:09the white paper came out and you do a
1:03:11third, a third, a third, and you just go
1:03:13through and you're like, "Okay, here's
1:03:14the compounding number and let's assume
1:03:16by going through that it's 33%." And
1:03:19you're like, "Okay, if I compounded
1:03:2033%," and you go, "Okay, now go do your
1:03:23income. compound it at 33% and see where
1:03:26you'll be in in in 20 years just by
1:03:30taking 20% of that income 15% of that
1:03:33income letting it grow and always taking
1:03:3515% you'll be shocked at how much money
1:03:36you have in 20 years. So here so here's
1:03:39a question of our theoretical
1:03:41idiot proof portfolio do you rebalance
1:03:44because if not you've got 97 98% Bitcoin
1:03:49[laughter]
1:03:50and I don't believe in rebalancing but
1:03:53you've got no diversification now at all
1:03:55so the NASDAQ can outperform for five
1:03:58years and not move the dial at all
1:04:01Bitcoin returns I don't know how to
1:04:02think about that
1:04:04>> I so when people have asked me and and I
1:04:07Guess now that I'm I've been a part of
1:04:09the community long enough.
1:04:12I've never sold a Bitcoin. I've never
1:04:14sold anything in it. And it's just
1:04:16amazing. I You haven't either?
1:04:19>> No. I
1:04:19>> I mean, I've sold I've switched, but
1:04:21I've never taken money out of digital
1:04:23assets
1:04:24>> ever. I've never I've never had a
1:04:26transaction that brings money back into
1:04:28the bank.
1:04:30>> It It's always a bigger number. And part
1:04:32of it is appreciation, but part of it is
1:04:34as I get more money and I don't I don't
1:04:37need to buy anything else in my life. So
1:04:38I have what I want. Everything is to me
1:04:41about a trip that I want to take or this
1:04:43and that. So I'm one of the lucky people
1:04:44that's made enough money in life where I
1:04:46don't need to go out and spend money.
1:04:48I'm I'm not buying more. I I own I own a
1:04:50home in Maine. That's it. Like that's
1:04:52it. I don't need anything. I have a
1:04:55Tesla from 2021. I'm just not a spender.
1:04:57I never have been. I just don't care.
1:05:01I have no interest in rebalancing
1:05:03because I don't need to and I'm not
1:05:06thinking about it in that way and I do
1:05:08view it as if that money continues to
1:05:11grow that's a better life for my kids or
1:05:13a better life for me giving away or
1:05:15whatever the case is down the road but
1:05:17it's something I believe in and I've I
1:05:19rode a Substack which I still believe I
1:05:21was trained at the racetrack by my
1:05:23father I started going to the racetrack
1:05:25according to my mother before I can way
1:05:28before I can remember but from the time
1:05:30that I can remember, which must be, you
1:05:32know, four to five years old. He was
1:05:34teaching me how to handicap a horse
1:05:36race. And I wrote this Substack about
1:05:38the greatest odds I've ever seen on
1:05:40something and the building of the
1:05:43digital asset rails, the belief that AI
1:05:46will disrupt the fiat system and that
1:05:50more and more people will migrate that
1:05:51money over to here, which you believe in
1:05:53and I believe in. And it's funny, I
1:05:55heard you say because I get asked the
1:05:57question all the time, so what's your
1:05:59price on Bitcoin? And I go, okay, I'm
1:06:01not going to do this anymore, but here's
1:06:03what I will do. I think the size of the
1:06:05digital asset world will be at least
1:06:07hundred trillion. And I do that not as
1:06:11like a random starting point, but if
1:06:13it's 700 trillion on one side of the
1:06:15equation and I believe that that money
1:06:17is going to grow over there and it'll be
1:06:20a combination of that side either not
1:06:22growing or going down to some degree and
1:06:25this side growing it it has to get to
1:06:27that level. There's no other way that it
1:06:29that that can happen. There's it's the
1:06:31digital economy and it has to grow that
1:06:33way. So when you get back to it and I
1:06:35go, well then what do you think? I'm
1:06:36like, well, then it gets back to how
1:06:37much you think Bitcoin will be as a
1:06:38percentage of that number. And if I say
1:06:40it'll never go below 33%, which is what
1:06:42I believe, then I can come up with a
1:06:44number that I can make an argument
1:06:45towards. Um, that's the way I think
1:06:47about this whole thing and kind of the
1:06:49migrate. And it's always funny that you
1:06:50and I um trained in a similar way,
1:06:53thinking of markets in a macro
1:06:54perspective, completely different in
1:06:57terms of the way we kind of I'd say get
1:06:59to the end game. We end up with similar
1:07:00numbers.
1:07:02But the the thing I think we both
1:07:04appreciate the most is, you know, the
1:07:06most exciting time of our entire career
1:07:11is now. And we've gone through all
1:07:13sorts. We've seen some really amazing
1:07:15stuff. And now it's like this is I mean
1:07:18the most
1:07:20concentrated you've ever had to be.
1:07:23Diversification kind of means nothing at
1:07:25this. And it's the most exciting time to
1:07:29be alive and to be part of this is
1:07:30amazing. and to help people in their
1:07:32journey as well of this is really
1:07:34special. Can
1:07:35>> can can you imagine um if you would have
1:07:38said five years ago the S&P will be
1:07:40growing uh 33% job hiring will be zero.
1:07:46Profit margins will be going parabolic
1:07:48not just in the US but globally.
1:07:52We'd be having a cancer vaccine come
1:07:54out. we'd be you can go through
1:07:57>> talk about that
1:07:58>> and
1:08:00people would be worried about whether 10
1:08:02year yields are five and three/4ers or
1:08:045.8% or 5.9%. Like I just I think the
1:08:08social media world I think the it's too
1:08:10good it can't possibly be this good. I
1:08:12didn't think I would feel this good at
1:08:14I'm going to be 60 years old in March. I
1:08:16didn't think I'd feel this good at this
1:08:17age. I didn't think I'd be able to work
1:08:19out every single day and think about
1:08:21anti-aging and going through this. So I
1:08:23just I'm I I agree with you. It's the
1:08:25best time, the most enjoyable time, and
1:08:27I'm learning more than I've ever learned
1:08:29in my life. So, I feel younger in almost
1:08:31every way I can possibly be younger.
1:08:33>> Fantastic, Jordi. As ever, my friend,
1:08:35fantastic conversation, and I always
1:08:37look forward to our next one.
1:08:39>> Same here, Raul. Get get Nappa.
1:08:42>> And don't forget to pre-order my book,
1:08:45>> of course. What's the name of it?
1:08:47>> The Everything Code, because it's
1:08:48actually written with AI. It's the first
1:08:50major book that a major publisher, so
1:08:53it's Pam McMillan. um and Haramman
1:08:56House, they trained their AI on all of
1:09:00my content and I gave them content and
1:09:04then they built the narrative of the
1:09:05book and I helped craft it with the
1:09:07editor.
1:09:08>> But it was it collapsed the the time to
1:09:11write a proper book from you, however
1:09:13long to, you know, a much shorter period
1:09:16of time. It's been an amazing thing. So
1:09:17anyway, so they
1:09:18>> you're not worried you're not worried
1:09:19about the Wall Street Journal and and
1:09:21and the drug uh AI oped fiasco. You're
1:09:24not worried about that. At least you're
1:09:26disclosing it. So
1:09:27>> well, the whole thing is disclosed as
1:09:28this is the first book ever done this
1:09:29way [laughter]
1:09:30>> and it's written by me. It's all my
1:09:32content and you know crafted. But yeah,
1:09:34it's it's let's see how it goes down. Be
1:09:37interesting. But it's the first one.
1:09:38>> I'm looking forward to it. I obviously
1:09:39have seen the everything code. I I've
1:09:42probably listened to more podcasts with
1:09:44you talking about it and I I believe
1:09:47that hearing this hearing a person talk
1:09:49about the same thing multiple times, I
1:09:51always absorb more because there's
1:09:52something either I missed or something
1:09:54that went through. So, I will certainly
1:09:55get the book. [laughter]
1:09:57>> All right, my friend. Well, good to see
1:09:58you as ever and I'll see you soon.
1:10:00>> See you soon.
1:10:02>> Well, another great conversation with
1:10:04Jordi. Now remember, if you want to
1:10:07carry on the conversation with me about
1:10:09any of my content, any of the videos,
1:10:11any of the conversations, or my
1:10:13investing frameworks, just go to
1:10:15ralpal.ai and you can talk to me in my
1:10:18own voice and that's trained on all of
1:10:21the information that will help you in
1:10:23your journey. So see you there. Token
1:10:272049 Singapore, the world's largest
1:10:29crypto event, returns to Marina Bay
1:10:31Sands on the 7th of 8th of October. On
1:10:34stage will be myself, Jeff Yan from
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1:10:38Market, and the Real Vision community
1:10:40gets 10% off tickets. Claim yours using
1:10:43the link below. See you there. So, you
1:10:46obviously like this video enough that
1:10:48you've got to the end. That's quite a
1:10:49big task, but listen, do me a favor. Hit
1:10:52the like and subscribe button and also
1:10:54check out what videos next because I
1:10:56think you'll love it. But if you want
1:10:57even more, and when I'm talking more,
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1:11:05journey, just head to realton.com/join
1:11:08for the best financial intelligence out
1:11:10there and the pure alpha that's within
1:11:12the platform.

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