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The AI Crypto Macro Nexus Point: Why Bitcoin Matters to Investors — Transcript

by Jordi Visser · 13,991 words · 1,998 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00So, obviously I stayed another week in
0:01Maine. Uh, it's hard to get me out of
0:03Maine. It's my, uh, happy place. Um,
0:08so I've been doing this now for two
0:10years. Um, I've been doing a weekly
0:13podcast with Anthony Pompiano since
0:16April of last year. Uh the weekly that I
0:20do on the YouTube has been 90%
0:23preparing people for how AI would
0:26disrupt macro, how it would disrupt the
0:29market, multiple compression, all kinds
0:31of things with the ultimate um endgame
0:35for me and endgame is an important word
0:38because it's going to be highlighted in
0:40here. Beware of the endgame bias.
0:42uh the endgame which is that AI would
0:45lead to a massive boom in
0:47entrepreneurship. It would disrupt all
0:49public companies and that disruption
0:52would begin much sooner than people
0:54realize really beginning when AI
0:56adoption started which obviously
0:58happened this year with AI agents. Uh on
1:02an weekly we talk probably about 50%
1:07about crypto when you average them all
1:08together. when there's nothing going on
1:10in Bitcoin, we don't talk as much about
1:12it, but it's really uh more crypto.
1:16This video is the most important one
1:18that I've done because the ultimate
1:20endgame for me was a point where Bitcoin
1:22starts to show up in its third wave, in
1:26its adoption phase, in the same way that
1:28AI did a year ago. And I've said
1:31repeatedly that I believe crypto will be
1:33viewed by everyone on the investment
1:35side a year from now in the same way
1:37that the infrastructure trade is today.
1:41The difference is Bitcoin does not get
1:43disrupted by AI. It is the purest AI
1:46trade. So if I am right and you guys
1:49watch me for some reason, whether it's
1:51to provoke thought, uh it's not for my
1:53looks, it's not for my ability to speak,
1:56it is because I must bring something to
1:59the table that gives you guys something
2:00to include in your own process. I'm not
2:02here to tell you what's going to work. I
2:04believe Bitcoin will go higher. I
2:07believe crypto will go higher because as
2:09Mark Andre said,
2:13why Bitcoin matters. If you haven't read
2:16the paper and you've been watching this
2:19video, it is now time to make sure that
2:21you watch it. You read it this weekend
2:23and you go see why Mark Andre said that
2:25the Bitcoin white paper was one of the
2:27most important advancements
2:30in the computer and where we would be 20
2:34years from when he wrote that. And that
2:35was 2014. We are now at 2026. I'm sick
2:39and I have always been sick of listening
2:41to people debate Bitcoin. It's going to
2:43hear. is going to hear if I heard
2:44another person doubt that it's going to
2:46go higher. Our job is not to g to guess.
2:49Our job is to try and put together a
2:51framework that we believe and when the
2:52tape starts to tell you that something
2:54is important is going on, that's when
2:56you want to start to pay attention. I
2:58mentioned two weeks ago on Anony's uh
3:01podcast and on mine that I believe that
3:03the end of July would be looked back on
3:06as the most important inflection point
3:08for all of us making money. situational
3:11awareness bottom with VS up at extreme
3:13levels. The market structure has clearly
3:15changed in the stock market.
3:17Tokenization is coming and people are
3:19going to have to look at the facts on
3:22the equation. I'm going to go through a
3:23lot on Bitcoin today, but a lot of it is
3:25combining and it's number four that
3:27matters for all of you. Bitcoin is a
3:30hedge to the time risk that all of you
3:32are going through. If you're an
3:34economist trying to tell me about the
3:36jobs market and the inflation data and
3:39all of the garbage that is associated
3:41with looking back and thinking that your
3:43job is still relevant compared to where
3:44it was five years ago, six years ago,
3:47seven year, everything has changed. The
3:49academic fed is no longer relevant.
3:51Whether it's hawkish or dovish is no
3:53longer relevant. It might be relevant
3:54for a week, but it hasn't been relevant
3:56for a long time. And this video is going
3:58to try to take you through the journey
3:59of all the noise that you listen to
4:00every week and how if you're trying to
4:03make money and you're coming in to watch
4:05me from this point on until Bitcoin goes
4:08back under the 200 day moving average.
4:10That'll be the point that I bail out and
4:12say, "Okay, I'm not talking about it
4:13anymore." Until that day comes, start to
4:16focus on the AI macro nexus that is
4:18coming. Let's start
4:22now.
4:27All right.
4:29So, I just want to make sure you guys
4:30see this. This is the thumbnail. I
4:32posted this on X.
4:34For the last year, we have watched AI
4:37speed up competition. I didn't care
4:40about the impact that AI would
4:41eventually have on getting us to Bitcoin
4:43until AI adap AI adoption was happening
4:47at the enterprise level which is clearly
4:49happening because you can see it with
4:50the fastest ARR growth for a company in
4:52the history of the world which is
4:54enthropic
4:56and using AI agents and once that
4:58happens and you speed up competition you
5:01speed up the ability of taking any idea
5:03and rebuilding it with no people that's
5:05what AI agents allow you to do
5:08innovation cycles compress in time.
5:11Everything compresses in time. I said
5:13last week, AI agents can can work. Even
5:17with the pantry flirting and the eating
5:19and the lunch and the travel and all
5:21that, the best case scenario, 70 days is
5:25equal to a year.
5:27My gut from managing people for a long
5:30time and dealing with all the waste and
5:31the travel time and the drinking and all
5:34the things that go on is that it's more
5:36like 10 to one. So when people tell you
5:39year-over-year this is growing this
5:41much, it doesn't mean anything because
5:43that's human time. What ends up
5:45happening is terminal value starts to
5:48decay. And that's what this is meant to
5:50show. And that's what we've seen with
5:52the software names. At some point when
5:54the competition is speeding so fast, you
5:56can't value a company three years out
5:58anymore because the speed of change is
6:00going so fast that it eventually
6:03disrupts every single company. And that
6:05does mean including physical companies.
6:07silver companies, uh, oil companies, but
6:10they're the last in line, not the first
6:12in line. The first is Adobe. The first
6:14is the companies you've seen it go on.
6:16But eventually, the entrepreneurs get
6:18big enough, they get the ecosystem grows
6:20fast enough. That's what Stripe is all
6:22about. They are the ecosystem of
6:25entrepreneurs causing the destruction.
6:27They're just too small right now, but
6:29they're growing at exponential pace. And
6:30within three years, they will have
6:32disrupted all business's growth. And
6:35that's what you have to remember. the
6:36value of stocks on discounted cash flows
6:39in the future. It's all about growth and
6:41if we have no certainty of growth, how
6:43do you hedge that time risk? How do you
6:45hedge that growth? This thing is not
6:48disrupted by it. That is why it is the
6:50purest AI trade. So for the last time as
6:53a as AI speeds up and we start to get
6:55into the abundance world where deflation
6:57is the game, we're seeing that we're
7:00talking about anthropic being subject to
7:02deflation competition. the fastest
7:05growing company that has gone in a
7:08parabolic move. We're now worried that
7:10they are slowing.
7:13This thing's breaking out today.
7:14Remember that as you're going through
7:16and thinking about things in your
7:17portfolio, you don't have to agree with
7:19me, but if you have a zero zero%
7:21position in this, you are saying there
7:23is 0% chance of this because everything
7:26in your portfolio will be disrupted.
7:29Which is why I'm doing these
7:30conversation the videos. It's also why
7:31I'm launching the crypto part of this
7:33too, which will go on the subscriber
7:35site. So,
7:37I want to do this because I am getting
7:39subscribers going, "What about this
7:41name? Are you still in this name? Is
7:42this name going higher?" Guys, I am not
7:44a stock picker. I am a thematic
7:46portfolio guy that writes spotlight
7:48pieces to highlight to you for yourself
7:51how they fit into the AI trade and then
7:52for you to go. I hate the fact that I
7:54have to put disclaimers on anything, but
7:57the reason you have disclaimers is
7:58because I'm here to give you guys
8:00education, not investment advice. If
8:02you're in a name and you haven't traded
8:03out of it, I trade all the time. I'm not
8:06going to come on here and say I've done
8:07this or done this based on on everything
8:09that I'm doing. I told you I reduced my
8:12positions in uh cryp or in the AI trade
8:17back in May and June and I moved the
8:20money into silver and Bitcoin. Those are
8:23my largest positions. Now, I still have
8:26Marll. It's a decent sized position. I
8:28moved into Eli Lily, which made new
8:31all-time highs this week. I've told you
8:33where I've been moving things. The
8:35application side is where I'm more
8:36interested, but I still have
8:38infrastructure names, but these names
8:39I'm sitting in, and I think a year from
8:41now, they'll be up more than the S&P,
8:43but I do not think they're going to be
8:44five baggers, six baggers, seven
8:45baggers. Do I think silver is going to
8:47outperform all those? Yes. Do I think
8:48Bitcoin's going to outperform it? Yes.
8:50Do I think Ethereum is? Yes. Do I think
8:52micro strategy is yes. My goal is to
8:54educate you and empower you both to use
8:57AI and to get ready for the crypto merge
8:59which is coming. If you don't think
9:02about it and if you don't know enough
9:03about it, that's what I'm here for is to
9:06teach you guys. If you want to know more
9:08about crypto, if you're an RAIA, a
9:11financial advisor, and you've ignored it
9:13and your clients have asked for it, you
9:15can't ignore it anymore. Next year will
9:17be a huge year relative to the market.
9:20And I will go through the reasons why,
9:21but the adoption phase of crypto is
9:23going to go through the same adoption
9:25phase we've we've seen with the
9:27infrastructure. The difference is
9:29there's no more growth assets left. You
9:31cannot believe a public company will be
9:34worth anything in three years relative
9:36to what it is today. They need to grow
9:39and growth is being disrupted by
9:41competition. Crypto is a tiny odd lot.
9:45The total size of the crypto market is
9:48around $3 trillion. The Russell 2000 is
9:51around three trillion. This is going to
9:54grow massively faster. And the size of
9:56it is going to grow because it is the
9:58guard rails for what's about to happen.
10:00The endgame bias. The Fed will raise
10:03rates. Long-term rates will set off a
10:04collapse due to debt and deficit. Oil is
10:06going to 200. Inflation is too high. AI
10:08is a bubble. These are all the stories
10:12that I hear every single week. It's just
10:14pick your one. An economist said they're
10:16going to raise three time. I can go
10:18through this over and over again. These
10:21are noise. These are endgame bias by
10:24everyone. Everyone will tell you this
10:26can't go on. I get emails after emails
10:29saying this will end badly. Okay, I'm
10:31just going to buy some stuff, but this
10:32is going to end badly. It is going to
10:34end badly. But in my bad, it's not
10:36because of this. It's because of
10:38deflationary competition which causes
10:41abundance and changes the structure of
10:43the market. So if you for any reason
10:47listen to me every week and at least
10:49think that my view has some backing
10:52behind it based on the facts and the
10:53data and the amount of reading and
10:55things that I've done on the topics of
10:56AI. I use it all day long. You're going
10:58to get a Grotbot
11:01uh uh example today uh on how AI agents
11:04have now been democratized. So, if you
11:06can get that from an economist who's 59,
11:09if you can get that from an investment
11:10uh strategist who's 59, great. But the
11:13only way you can talk about these things
11:14is to have some historical domain
11:16experience. And if you have domain
11:17experience and you don't use AI, how can
11:19you possibly listen to anyone who does
11:22this? These were all wrong. They've all
11:24been wrong. Could they be right
11:25eventually? I I guess. But in the
11:29meantime, you're losing money. So, I
11:30think it's very important to stop with
11:32the endgame bias. People know what the
11:35endgame is. They say the same thing all
11:37the time. And the same people said oil
11:39is going to 200 or the same people
11:40saying inflation's too high. They're the
11:42same people say the Fed will raise
11:44rates. It's all the same story. And I
11:46know that because I have X to go prove
11:48it. That's all they do. And they write
11:50and they get paid for it. I'm not paid
11:52to be bullish. I'm actually the most
11:54bearish person I know on public
11:56equities. It's just not today. It's in
11:58the future. And maybe it never happens.
12:01I'll change my views based on the basian
12:03framework that goes on. Here's tenure
12:05rates. I lived in Brazil for a long
12:07time.
12:08The currency was pegged the entire time
12:11I was there until they had to move the
12:14currency with the devaluation and then
12:15Morgan Stanley brought me back to take
12:17over the S&P book. This is a pegged
12:21currency. This is tenure rates in the
12:23US. How many people are giving you that
12:26this is going to blow off to the upside?
12:27Have you seen the chart? This is a a
12:29wedge. This is just it. Yeah, that's all
12:32great except you're fighting the
12:34government. They don't want it to go
12:35higher. So, is it really the best bet to
12:38sit there and say they're going to let
12:39this go to 9 10%. Or is it a better bet
12:42to say we've watched this game before,
12:44they'll just keep doing this, but
12:46because Japan is having to do something
12:48in terms of raising rates, but their
12:49rates are lower than ours in terms of
12:52short rates. So, the yen and the BOJ
12:55situation is September will be a big
12:57event. The question is, was the yen
13:00signal what I thought it was? And as of
13:03right now, it absolutely was because the
13:05Treasury announces increased sizes of
13:07nominal end liquidity support, the most
13:09important news of the week, and helped
13:12get Bitcoin moving.
13:14Then, of course, he couldn't stop there.
13:16Oh, could be more than four billion.
13:18We've seen this before. This is the old
13:20bazooka trick. This is the old I want to
13:22stop the market from targeting this
13:24there. They believe, as he said on CNBC,
13:27these are mispriced. This is not the
13:28right price for yields.
13:31He's going against GDP that's going
13:33higher. He's going against inflation
13:34that's higher than what the Fed has
13:36said. All of these things are true. You
13:40got PMIs in terms of the Philly Fed and
13:42the Empire new orders, which are
13:44basically at the same level that equates
13:45to a 60 PMI, which I've talked about for
13:48a year. the growth is good,
13:52but they're saying they don't want
13:53yields to go higher because we have a
13:55debt and deficit problem. And so history
13:58suggests not to dismiss Bessant's move
14:00on the yen. Basically going against
14:02intervention is a very very dangerous
14:05game particularly when it's coordinated
14:07against other countries. He's doing
14:09unconventional moves to try and help.
14:12He's leaning on the Fed to help with
14:14FEMA. Again, when you see multiple
14:18stories going on, you have to be
14:21careful. Besson is seen as a political
14:23actor. He's focused on midterm. This is
14:25all noise, guys. This is just stuff
14:27going on. The academic Fed versus the
14:29inflation target of the future. I wrote
14:30this on a August 18th of 2025, almost a
14:34year ago to the day. And within there,
14:37this is before Worsh was chosen. I
14:40talked about how Scott Besson was
14:42interviewed on the AllIn podcast
14:44following the AI action plan. If you
14:46haven't listened to it, go listen to it
14:48again because remember Scott Bessant was
14:51heavily involved with choosing Kevin
14:53Worsh. They went through this and if
14:55this administration is one thing, if
14:57they bring someone in, they are going
14:59through a vetting process to figure out
15:01if they're going to agree with the way
15:02they view the world, which is very
15:04different than the way academics view
15:06the world. Besson in a recent interview
15:08with Nikkei. So this is he stressed that
15:11the Fed's role is now expanding far
15:13beyond traditional interest rate
15:15management and because of this the next
15:16Fed chair must be someone capable of
15:19thoroughly examining the institution
15:21itself not just inheriting old
15:23frameworks. Are the economists that
15:25you're paying to listen to still using
15:27old frameworks that they were taught in
15:29college
15:31because this administration wants them
15:33to examine it and change them. uh task
15:36forces. Besson argued the Fed's
15:38leadership should be proactive and
15:40forward-looking, able to anticipate how
15:42structural changes such as AIdriven
15:44productivity, fiscal dynamics, meaning
15:47the debt and deficit situation and
15:49geopolitical pressures
15:53[sighs]
15:53will reshape the economy. The next Fed
15:56share in short must be an adaptive
15:58leader prepared to rethink the Fed's
15:59mission in light of the rapid innovation
16:02and fiscal realities. That's it in a
16:04nutshell. AI needs to raise money. It
16:09needs the back end of the curve for the
16:10next year to two years until the free
16:13cash flow for the people borrowing money
16:15gets to a level where they can just use
16:17free cash flow from their ROIC, assuming
16:20again they get there. Regardless, they
16:22don't want rates going higher and they
16:24understand this is happening because for
16:26the first time in a long time, we have a
16:27lot of supply coming to the market.
16:29Broadcom's coming to the market with a
16:30massive deal. So,
16:34as you read this and go through it and
16:36pause it here, you will see that what
16:39you're witnessing and what's going on
16:40with Kevin Worsh, who is connected to
16:43Scott Bessant. The belief that people
16:46have was that there'd be no Fed
16:48independence. But somehow or another,
16:50people actually believe what Scott
16:52Besson wants is lower rates, but Worsh
16:56is just going to do whatever he wants.
16:59So, we questions Fed independence, but
17:01on the same side, people are willing to
17:03say, "Well, no, no, no. He's going to
17:04raise rates." Even though I I I just I
17:07I'm a handicapper. That just doesn't
17:09seem like knowing this administration
17:11something that is going to be real. So,
17:14you can sit there and say that, but if
17:16the people that are saying that we're
17:18saying three rate hikes and they refuse
17:19to give up on the three rate hikes, even
17:21though we've had softer inflation data,
17:23we've had softer labor data, and we've
17:25had the yen signal. How are you being
17:28honest as a handicapper? There's new
17:29news that came in over the last two
17:31months and you haven't adjusted your
17:32view from three rate hikes. That is the
17:35main problem with listening to anyone
17:37right now on the Fed who's sitting there
17:39still saying rate hikes. Are they saying
17:42it because they believe it or are saying
17:43they because it want it? Are they saying
17:45because Iran is still going on and oil
17:47I'll show you the oil thing in a little
17:48while. Listen to the interview and just
17:51go through it. Then on July 6th, I wrote
17:53the art of unlearning the Fed. And this
17:56again, the inspiration came from that
17:59same podcast. Besson's belief that
18:00AIdriven productivity shifts demand. A
18:03forward-looking Fed has real merit. AI
18:05is progressing at an unprecedented pace.
18:07And in a world defined by exponential
18:08innovation, relying on backward-looking
18:10models is too slow.
18:14If you believe, as I do, that the
18:16deflationary pressures from AI are about
18:19to accelerate and you believe that you
18:22should be, I don't know, shrinking the
18:24amount of meetings,
18:26you're actually trying to slow down
18:29time, you're trying to make sure that
18:31you're not moving too fast at this pace,
18:35going and doing everything he's doing,
18:38the task forces, the data, finding new
18:40data, finding new ways to look at
18:41inflation, whether or not it's the right
18:43thing to do, It's definitely something
18:45that has to be done and he's doing it.
18:47So all these task forces are to adjust
18:50monetary policy the way it's been done.
18:52So using the old playbook is not there
18:55to build data centers and the rest would
18:57affect demand demand and could increase
18:59demand by a few tents. This is Kevin
19:01Worsh speaking at his press conference
19:03on the supply side of the economy to
19:06increase the potential output of the
19:07economy that could be considerably
19:09bigger. So his point on this is that
19:12short term the capital spending story
19:15might inflate inflation a little bit but
19:18the deflationary pressures that will
19:19come from the supply side of the economy
19:21changing in the future are far bigger if
19:24that's what he believes and he said in
19:26front of Congress at his testimony why
19:28should you doubt him at this point now
19:30he doesn't make the final decision on
19:31rates but we all know at this point
19:34unless there's an egregious way meaning
19:37unless the inflation data is surprising
19:38on the high side. At the end of the day,
19:41there's no way I can see him raising
19:44rates unless he's outvoted. I just don't
19:48see how it's going to happen. And again,
19:49I think it's a bad bet with the data
19:51that we've seen. So again, I'm going to
19:52go back to how important that week was.
19:54The yen signal. Go read the paper if you
19:58haven't read it yet. It's the
19:59summertime. I know people have been kind
20:02of going through the motions. It was a
20:03brutal July for a lot of people in the
20:05AI trade. August so far has been a very
20:08good month despite what the noise you're
20:10hearing. Almost everything is up 3% um
20:13for the month. We have a little back and
20:15forth. We go all over the place, but
20:17it's there. Um this is the part that I
20:20put in. Over the next 12 months, I
20:21expect agents to move rapidly from tools
20:23that assist humans to systems that
20:24increasingly act on their behalf. I'll
20:26show Grockbot today. That means more
20:29productivity, but it also means more
20:30pressure on employment, wages, tax
20:31receipts, and the political response
20:33required to manage the transition. The
20:35economic system will simultaneously be
20:36asked to finance unprecedented
20:38investment in comput infrastructure
20:39while adapting to a technology capable
20:41of reducing the need for human labor
20:43across an expanding number of
20:44industries. That is a fact. That's not a
20:47guess. All of that is true. All of it.
20:52We're seeing it. It's just a fact. The
20:55economic system is being changed because
20:56of AI agents and they're accelerating at
20:59an an insane pace right now seen through
21:03the ARR. This only started in January.
21:06We haven't really started the usage. We
21:07are in the bring it on, show me how we
21:09can do it side. That is just starting.
21:12And that is the reason why crypto is
21:13starting to become more important
21:15because as I go through here, the end
21:18intervention was not the crisis. Gold is
21:20not yet singling a crisis. AI agents
21:22have not yet transformed the economy.
21:24But the pressure from all three is
21:25beginning to show up at the same time.
21:27That is the nexus point. And I believe
21:29we will look back on the last week of
21:30July as one of the moments when the
21:32merging of the creditbacked fiat world
21:34and the AI fueled digital economy
21:36stopped being theoretical and began
21:38began showing up in markets. That
21:40collision course between the
21:42creditbacked fiat system and the crypto
21:45world is what's happening now. Besson's
21:47being called the most interventionist
21:50treasury chief in decades.
21:53Trump at the crypto event still with his
21:56guy there said Fed interest rate policy
21:58he's bemoning it says US should be
22:00paying much less if you listen to it he
22:03thinks our rates should be down he's
22:05publicly saying that is he applying
22:07pressure to Bessant or to Worsh no he's
22:10doing a great job
22:12but he also renewed his attacks on the
22:15Federal Reserve so he might be saying
22:17things about Worsh but don't think this
22:19isn't his goal is to make sure there's
22:21no rate hikes
22:22So, let's go back. Bitcoin Segue, a
22:27peer-to-peer electronic cash system. We
22:29propose a solution to the double
22:31spending problem using peer-to-peer
22:33network. If you haven't read the Bitcoin
22:35white paper, now that I've said to you
22:38why Bitcoin matters by Mark Andre in
22:40January of 2014, must read for alpha in
22:45the future. Now, you've got the Bitcoin
22:47white paper on your homework. In
22:49Bitcoin, you cannot spend the same
22:50monetary unit twice. The fiscal system,
22:53you can spend today's income and
22:54simultaneously borrow against tomorrow's
22:56income. Old system completely breaking
22:59down. New system being born. Satoshi
23:03built Bitcoin to eliminate double
23:05spending of money. This was the white
23:07paper. This was the solution. The
23:10sovereign debt system permits something
23:12Bitcoin does not. The repeated spending
23:14of future time. There's the time thing
23:16again.
23:18It's all going to change from this point
23:20going forward.
23:22This is why when you go through the AI
23:25macro nexus, you know, sheet and for
23:28those of you who got it last week on the
23:29RAIA side and have signed up for me to
23:32do presentations, the next constraint is
23:34financial crypto rails for AI agents.
23:36This learning curve will be massive
23:39compared to these. So, you better be
23:42ready and you better be on top of the
23:44fact because when your clients ask you,
23:46"Hey, what should we be doing in
23:47crypto?" And you say, "We don't do it.
23:50We don't have an answer. Let me get
23:51someone on the phone who's credible in
23:53the space and a guy with a hoodie shows
23:55up." Or you're lucky enough to find
23:57someone in the crypto space who can talk
23:59about their vertical. The problem is,
24:01how do you connect it back to what's
24:02happening in the world and get a story
24:04or a narrative that people can embrace?
24:06Who are your clients? You're going to
24:09have to find that
24:10And that's the reason why I was doing
24:12this because I know this is coming at
24:15the White House this week.
24:17This event went on. So the same week
24:20that Scott Bessant is doing all of these
24:24interventions in the last two weeks, the
24:26quarterly refunding change in the
24:29language, the yen intervention, the
24:32buyback situation, publicly saying he
24:34wants rates to be lower.
24:37President Trump had all of the crypto
24:39gangs there to basically say to the
24:42Democrats.
24:43If you don't sign the Clarity Act, we're
24:46going forward anyway because this is
24:48important to America. You can have it on
24:50your voting block if you don't want to
24:52have it. We're going forward. Both
24:54applying pressure, but also saying it
24:56doesn't really matter. This is like AI,
24:58guys.
25:00So the clarity act's been keeping a ball
25:03below the water and this week it just
25:05blew out of the water partly because of
25:07the change from Bessant and partly
25:10because of what's happening at the White
25:11House. So there are catalysts that
25:14happen that everyone was looking for.
25:16Now Trump argued that crypto stable
25:18coins prediction markets and blockchain
25:19based finance tools are for maintaining
25:21US financial dominance, keeping
25:23innovation on shore and extending the
25:24dollar's global role. Critical thing to
25:26say, very important. They view this and
25:29this is part of it. This is not let me
25:31go buy Bitcoin because I want to
25:32speculate on I want to make money. This
25:33is the belief that just like AI having
25:37the dollarbased system which the US has
25:40had creates strength for them, they
25:43can't allow China to have all of the
25:48crypto side or it be outside the US. So
25:51he connected crypto policy to AI
25:53competition,
25:55shifted to macro policy, saying interest
25:57rates should fall when the economy is
25:59strong. And then you can go through
26:01these things from Brian Armstrong, from
26:03Vlad, from Robin Hood, and from chain
26:06link. All of this stuff is about the
26:08global framework going on. So with all
26:11that said, the one thing I've said, and
26:13the reason I've been quiet on Bitcoin,
26:15if you notice my demeanor change, it's
26:17because of this. as Jesse Livermore
26:19taught us all in reminiscence of a stock
26:21operator. For those of you who are new
26:22to investing and you want a good book to
26:24read, this is a great book, especially
26:26if you're a trader. If you haven't read
26:27it, um I highly I highly recommend
26:31reading it. The tape does not concern
26:33itself with the why and wherefor. Don't
26:36argue with the tape. The object of
26:37reading the tape is to ascertain how and
26:39when to trade. This one here and all of
26:43them, I don't want to fight the tape.
26:44So, when we're in a bare market, meaning
26:46we're below the 200 day moving average,
26:48I can buy some stuff. I can go through
26:49it, but I'm not going to talk to it to
26:50you guys about it other than just say, I
26:52still believe it's going to bottom here
26:54and it's going to go higher, but it may
26:55go down before it goes up. But once it
26:57gets above the 200 day moving average,
26:59then I get more interested. Great
27:01traders do not force the market to fit
27:03the story. They let the tape update the
27:05story. That's why all of the things that
27:07I said had been going on for a while.
27:09And like I showed two weeks ago from
27:13HOL,
27:14all of these bad events were going on
27:17and Bitcoin was still trading well while
27:20the tech bubble was unwinding.
27:23I thought Bitcoin was a tech
27:26beta trade. So somehow or another,
27:28Bitcoin was hanging in there when bad
27:31news was there.
27:33And so here's what we get. That looks
27:35like trying to hold a ball underwater.
27:37And eventually the pressure came out.
27:39Three massive candles in a row breaking
27:42the 200 day moving average in Bitcoin.
27:46Ethereum, same thing. You can't see it
27:49here, but also the 200 day moving
27:51average just turned up in Ethereum.
27:54Very powerful signal.
27:57I've talked to you that I believe
27:59Ethereum should outperform. I have a
28:01good amount of Ethereum. I didn't have
28:02any Ethereum until really recently. Um,
28:05and the reason is because I believe that
28:08this is going to be based on the
28:09ecosystem. I believe Beta is going to
28:11lead in crypto and Bitcoin will not be
28:13the leader. If I'm right about what's
28:16happening, the other name should lead
28:17and Ethereum should lead because this is
28:19about the ecosystem being invested in.
28:22And I'll talk more about that.
28:25If you read my ex post, you saw this
28:27chart.
28:29Sigma moves. Guys, first of all, for
28:31those of you who reach out and say you
28:33show a lot of charts where you don't
28:34explain what's going on, I will explain
28:36this one. So, in the way to look at
28:40things in both price and time, if Micron
28:44right now has a uh a 20% rise, meaning
28:48it goes from 900 to,00 you don't think
28:51twice about it because it's been doing
28:53that regularly. It trades at 100
28:55volatility which means a normal daily
28:57move in that thing is 6%. So if it's 6%
29:01you get a 20% move. Okay, view it is
29:04this way. That would be a three standard
29:06deviation move on a daily basis. What
29:08this is is this is the weekly moves. So
29:12for a weekly move I'm taking the six-day
29:14volatility of Bitcoin. Before we moved
29:16this week, last Friday it was 23. So on
29:19a daily basis 23 V is about 1 and a.5%.
29:23The reason I can calculate that in my
29:24head is because you take whatever that V
29:27is, it's a daily annualized V. And if
29:30you want to convert it into something
29:32that you can do in percentage terms, you
29:34take the square root of 252 trade days,
29:38that's about 16. You divide the V 23 by
29:4116, you get one and a half%. Now, if you
29:44want to do weekly, you're taking that
29:46same number, which is 23, and you're
29:47dividing it by the square root
29:51of 52 weeks. So, that's seven. So, let's
29:54say 20, let's let's take it 23 vol
29:57divided by 7. That's about 3% a week is
29:59a one standard deviation move. We moved
30:02by 22% this week. So, you get a seven
30:04sigma move. So, that's how you normalize
30:06things on movements to decide how big
30:09and powerful of of a move it was based
30:11on how it's been trading for the last 60
30:13days. I chose 60 days because that is
30:17two months worth of data. Um, and I say
30:19two months because Bitcoin trades 60
30:23seven days a week. Um, here were the
30:25last two
30:27highs, the only other two in the last
30:30decade on a weekly basis that were
30:32greater than five. One was April 7 7th,
30:352019,
30:37January 15, 2023. You can see where the
30:41V was. So, not too far off. This is the
30:44way Bitcoin trades. It goes through a
30:46bare market. All the sellers are gone.
30:48And as we all know, for many of you who
30:50just hold like me, I've never sold a
30:54Bitcoin in my lifetime. You are left
30:57with the fact that it eventually gets
30:59quiet. The 60-day V eventually drops
31:02down before the move. So this time it
31:05was 23. In 19 it was 29. In 23 it was
31:0727. This time it was 23. And then this
31:11was the weekly move. So a very similar
31:13time. Now let's go see if those points
31:15were important.
31:17Huh. Here was the one where it started.
31:19Now this is a daily chart. That was the
31:22week. We got these two big candles. And
31:24guess what? We crossed above the 200 day
31:26moving average. And we doubled very
31:29quickly in the next two months in that.
31:31That was back in the 19 one.
31:35Oh, same exact thing. We break above the
31:37200 day moving average back in 2022.
31:40And this one a little bit more grumpy on
31:44the way up, but still worked its way to
31:47being up close to doubling very quickly.
31:49And then took a little bit more time,
31:52went through another phase. Um, the
31:54point being on this for you guys,
31:59the pattern's resuming and I hate to say
32:02it as I said in the post, but it's like
32:03the four-year cycle. I mentioned last
32:05week that or the week after here that
32:09the end signal was here. We got this
32:11boost that was a multi-igma move in
32:13gold. Very similar. It was a 7% move. I
32:16showed it was one of the largest moves
32:17in the last 15 years. It's continued
32:19through and is back above the 200 day
32:21moving average. So, we are getting some
32:22sort of a debasement trade. We are
32:24getting whatever you want to call it.
32:25Silver was up big, too. I made a lot of
32:27money on my silver stuff this week. Uh,
32:29for those of you asking on the silver, I
32:31am long SLV and I am long SIL. SIL is
32:35much bigger. I like the miners because I
32:38believe this stuff the miners are just
32:40trading way too cheap relative to where
32:42the metal is. Regardless of that, I got
32:45both of them. So, let's go read one of
32:47the posts I put in about this move in
32:49Bitcoin. Sentiment is low. Jack Besson
32:52is quoting Satoshi in Expose. The
32:57Treasury Secretary is quoting Satoshi
33:00and this is recent tech momentum V is at
33:0445ear highs. I'm going to take you guys
33:06through the fact that if you're running
33:08a portfolio and you've got a 60-day
33:09volume on one instrument which is 23 and
33:11you have a 60-day V on something like
33:12Micron which is 120. Um,
33:17I don't think people have fully embraced
33:19how important this is for Bitcoin.
33:23People invest in beta.
33:26This stuff is going to be stuck in the
33:28mud. I will go through V, but I just
33:32want to say this to you. V is like going
33:35into the ICU at the hospital. When your
33:38vitals are that severe and you end up in
33:40the ICU, when you come out of the
33:42hospital,
33:44think of situational awareness day, that
33:45tech momentum came out of the hospital,
33:48you're not going to be back to normal
33:50for a long time. It's going to take a
33:53long time for this V to come down, if it
33:55ever does. And as I've said, market
33:57structure has changed. The reason this
33:58stuff trades like that is because of the
34:01terminal value destruction. You cannot
34:03value companies three three years from
34:05now. This is not just a Micron story.
34:08I'll show you IBM later. You can go look
34:10at Adobe. You can go All of these
34:12companies are going through the same
34:14thing on the on the uh on the option
34:18side. You start hearing people talk
34:19about dispersion and it continues to be
34:22just all over the map in terms of all of
34:24these names are moving at high volume,
34:26but the index is not moving. That's
34:27exactly what I would expect when S&P
34:30earnings are going at 30, 40, 50%. And
34:33the names are going all over the map.
34:36That will continue because we are never
34:38going back to a 8% earnings cycle and
34:41GDP of three. That's never happening
34:44again in an AI world. So adapt to the
34:46new market structure and just realize
34:48Bitcoin benefits because it's a growth
34:49asset. And once it starts going and
34:51people go, "This is beta." This
34:53community is going to push this baby. So
34:56get involved because it's coming. AI
34:58agents are about to change global
34:59economy measurements and the new Fed
35:01chair has five task forces to
35:02restructure the way monetary policy is
35:04done, leaving academic economist lost
35:05while the Treasury Secretary is doing
35:07unconventional blah blah blah. As
35:08Michael Sailor says, you don't find
35:10Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you. We are at
35:12the Bitcoin finds you moment. If you're
35:14trying to make money for investors and
35:16you need to make more than what the S&P
35:17can give when the S&P is giving you 20
35:1925% a year, it's not going to help you
35:21to go invest in stocks that are going up
35:2325% a year. It's not going to help you
35:24invest in stocks like Nvidia which go up
35:2730% every year, but people hate the
35:30stock because it doesn't go up 50 or 60
35:33or it doesn't go up ever relative to the
35:35S&P which I'll highlight as well, but it
35:37still outperforms.
35:39Going to be a good video this week.
35:40Hopefully you guys are enjoying it so
35:41far. We're still early in this. All
35:43right, Satoshi,
35:46America will lead or America won't. It's
35:48not more complicated than that. I
35:49believe Satoshi once said it best. If
35:51you don't believe me or you don't get
35:52it, I don't have time to try and
35:54convince you. Sorry. The importance of
35:56passing the Clarity Act.
35:58I'm just telling you guys, read the
36:02news. Do not have an endgame bias. If
36:05people aren't talking about this, they
36:07don't know it. They're not involved.
36:10This is a Bitcoin presidency and all of
36:14the people at every level are pro
36:16Bitcoin. Kevin Walsh on Bitcoin. This is
36:20from January.
36:22It could tell the world that it could
36:24tell the world that things need to be
36:26fixed. Yes, the old system is broken.
36:28Bitcoin does not make me nervous. The
36:30underlying technology is that white
36:31paper. Go read it. If you don't believe
36:34me, go listen to Kevin. He's the Fed
36:36chair. It's just software. It's just the
36:38newest, coolest, coolest software that
36:40will provide us the opportunity to do
36:42things we have never done before. Okay,
36:45Bitcoin. I think of Bitcoin as a lot of
36:47things, but certainly with every passing
36:49day, getting new life as an alternative
36:51currency. Ask your economist if they
36:53believe in Bitcoin. Ask them if they use
36:56AI and then get rid of every one of them
36:59that says no to both. They cannot help
37:02you going forward. They can help you
37:05five years ago. So, if you want to know
37:06about what the Fed would have done five
37:08years ago, be my guest and go deal with
37:10it. Treasury seeks public comment on the
37:13Genius Act, proposing rulemaking. Now,
37:16the Genius Act is not the Clarity Act.
37:17And remember that was passed a while
37:19ago. This is August 17th. Again, during
37:23this week,
37:26I said to you guys back in June, I no
37:29longer wanted to be involved with this
37:31stuff. I wanted to be involved with this
37:35layer, the hardest layer to invest in.
37:38Where do we get the applications? This
37:40is not a software thing. The models are
37:42all under pressure now in terms of
37:44everyone's worried about them.
37:45Anthropics,
37:46they're valued at very high levels. Do I
37:48think Anthropic could be worth three
37:51trillion? Sure,
37:53it's already worth two trillion. What is
37:55three trillion going to give you? That's
37:56a 50% increase. We get stocks moving
37:5850%. Bitcoin was up 23% this week
38:01because it's an application.
38:04It's part of the crypto ecosystem. And
38:06yes, I know Bitcoin doesn't benefit on
38:08this. But as I've shown before, Bitcoin
38:11is basically the S&P 500 of the crypto
38:14world and eventually of the entire
38:16ecosystem of investing. It is the only
38:18store of value in the digital economy.
38:21End of story.
38:24I'm glad that Stan has entered the
38:28crypto world in a way that can be
38:29publicized. Um, I've heard him talk
38:31about Bitcoin. uh his statements on
38:34Bitcoin back in like 2020 and 2021 I
38:36thought were brilliant because he said,
38:38"I don't understand it." But when I talk
38:40to kids, they all want it. They all
38:42believe in it. He knows that this is
38:44important. He knows you don't have to
38:46understand it, and you certainly don't
38:48have to do what Jeremy Grantham did the
38:50week of the lows is go on and say he
38:52wants to piss all over it and it's
38:54garbage. What an horrible the most
38:58ironic bottom of all time. Stan
39:00Duckville reveals 23 million of
39:02hyperlquid market structures changing.
39:06Market structures changing. This is my
39:08favorite one.
39:11Standiller's Dukane family office adds
39:13Bitcoin mining exposure through Bit Deer
39:15Riot Hut 8 and iron while exiting Intel
39:19and Micron. That's the exact same trade
39:21that I make. I I like it when stands on
39:23uh on my playbook. I like it. the end
39:26signal an AI max macro nexus point. Why
39:30am I bringing this up again?
39:35It's the merge time, guys. So, it brings
39:37me to the next intersection, the AI Max
39:39make macro nexus crypto. So, again,
39:41think about what Stan is doing.
39:44Regardless of his reasons on it, he's
39:47looking at public companies and I'm sure
39:49if he had the ability and maybe he does
39:50of being involved in some of the tokens
39:52and I'll go through some some of the
39:54charts in terms of what the ecosystem is
39:57doing. But if AI is creating a digital
39:59economy increasingly populated by
40:00autonomous agents, then that economy
40:02will require digitally native money,
40:03collateral, settlement, identity. At the
40:06same time, if the response is the debt
40:07burden of the existing fiat system
40:09increasingly requires liquidity
40:11creation and currency debasement, then
40:14scarce digital assets become more
40:15relevant, not less. These two forces are
40:18approaching each other from opposite
40:19directions. The old system is ending.
40:21The new system is beginning. The new
40:23system is accelerating and going to get
40:25all of the investment in the next phase.
40:27This is 101 of finding growth that is an
40:31innovation that will be changing the
40:33world. just because you don't understand
40:35it. By investing in the old aging system
40:39which cannot deal with AI agents, public
40:43companies cannot deal with AI agents
40:45regardless of what they tell you. An AI
40:48native company can adapt quickly. A
40:50public company, how long is it going to
40:53take for them to install agents and use
40:55them in a way? The only reason they can
40:57benefit is because their revenues are so
40:59big. So they will benefit until they
41:01stop being able to cut expenses and grow
41:04their revenues. At some point that will
41:06happen in my opinion. So again, you
41:09don't have to believe me, but you're
41:11watching this for a reason. At least
41:13incorporate it in there, and I'm trying
41:14to educate you with the things to read.
41:18So combine what happened with Stripe.
41:21They purchased Open Router. So, Stripe,
41:24as I've said multiple times and covered
41:27um at least five or six times a year,
41:29how important this company is to the new
41:31financial guardrails, how they are the
41:33ones that are moving quickly and doing
41:35things. Combine what they did this week,
41:38and I'm not going to read this, but you
41:40guys can go read it. This is a letter to
41:42investors explaining why they bought
41:44Open Router. Why would they buy
41:46something that is very important to what
41:49companies are talking about? Meaning a
41:51routing system where you can have open
41:53source and you can have frontier models
41:55and the router's deciding what the
41:57cheapest one or the best one to use is.
41:59Why would they do it? Well,
42:03[clears throat]
42:04that's not the only thing they're doing.
42:07Stripes emerging AI agent economy stack.
42:10So, if you want to look what the future
42:11is going to look like, who should you be
42:13paying attention to? these guys or JP
42:17Morgan,
42:20this is what they're buying. And they
42:22can buy these little companies in in
42:23their business and they're a big
42:24company, hundreds of billions of dollars
42:27in terms of valuation. But every single
42:30part, I wrote a big paper on this when
42:31they did this back two years ago. All of
42:34these things go through and you can read
42:37them on your own, but it's money,
42:39compute, tokens, intelligent output,
42:42revenue. They are basically creating a
42:44stack for companies like mine, companies
42:48that can use intelligence, tokens,
42:51compute. They're saying money is being
42:53transformed into these things and then
42:56coming out the other side. You're
42:58spending money on compute to create to
43:00get AI tokens for the intelligence
43:03involved with it. I do it all day long
43:05in my business.
43:07If you don't know enough about them,
43:09this was an interview that came before
43:10the open router announcement. This is
43:12it's it's a great interview. It's on
43:14A16Z podcast. I will put it in the
43:18weekly podcast sheet with the transcript
43:21or with the details and the link um for
43:24the subscribers. Tokens are the new
43:26dollar. Stripes will gay interviewed. Go
43:31listen to it. Stripe has evolved from a
43:34payments processor into a financial
43:35infrastructure platform.
43:37Isn't that to some degree what Amazon
43:40became? what Google became what all
43:43think about what's happening in front of
43:45this except these guys are on the guard
43:48rail side the financial side as I say to
43:51my son who's getting a finance major but
43:54is building agents every day you're an
43:58entrepreneur dude you can build your own
43:59business you don't have to go work for a
44:01public company if you go work for a
44:02public company you will be miserable the
44:04same way I was day one at working at
44:06Morgan Stanley I figured a way because I
44:08was learning so much to keep that
44:10suppressed I'm not born to work in a big
44:12company. I don't like managing people.
44:15I'll get into more of that when I show
44:16you Grockbot. But my son is at this
44:19stage where he has a finance degree.
44:20Every company, whether it's a
44:22construction company, a food company, a
44:24uh a pension, it doesn't matter what it
44:26is, you need to know finance for your
44:29life, for everything. So, having a
44:31finance degree is important, but
44:33finance, which is where Stripe is
44:35listed, they're building around that
44:36need. I use Stripe.
44:40Cost cutting is characterized as going
44:42short your future potential. Building
44:44more is going long. This is an
44:45entrepreneurial mindset. This is an AI
44:47native mindset. This is what they are.
44:50They're not only talking about what
44:51they're seeing. They're seeing explosion
44:54in new company formation and faster
44:56monetization. First half signups were
44:58said to be up 50% year-over-year, while
45:01newer startup cohorts are generating
45:04substantially more rev than prior
45:06cohorts. We are watching the
45:08cannibalization of all revenue inside
45:11the country by AI native businesses.
45:14It's just that the number is small. The
45:16Russell 2000 again is about three
45:20trillion less than the size of Nvidia.
45:23It will take time, but when you're
45:25growing and you're seeing companies like
45:26Anthropic go from a valuation of a
45:28100red billion to two to three trillion
45:31in less than 18 months, we've never seen
45:33this before. This is what you're going
45:35to see with other AI native businesses
45:38and just wait till humanoids come. You
45:40will see the same thing.
45:42Agentic commerce is still missing basic
45:44infrastructure. This is the reason why
45:45we haven't seen the crypto side yet
45:47because the Aentic commerce side is not
45:48there yet. But once it comes, that's
45:50where the growth comes in this. This is
45:51where every hedge fund gets involved,
45:53which will happen before the end of the
45:54year because they will start to see the
45:55numbers that's happening already and
45:57value acrruel and all the revenues and
45:58everything that's already going on and
46:00realizing, oh my god, this thing is so
46:01cheap. You're starting to see it with
46:03companies like Figure. You're starting
46:04to see it with the ones that I've
46:05mentioned on here where people start
46:07doing their homework and they're like,
46:08"Wait a second. You're growing that
46:09fast?" That's like AI growth.
46:12It's connected to agents and it's going
46:15to continue to grow rapidly, especially
46:17while the government is giving the all
46:19clear.
46:20AI agents could finally make microp
46:22payments economically important. Small
46:24things. Stripe C stable coins
46:25fundamentally a superior global payment
46:26infrastructure. The central thesis
46:29tokens are the new dollars. They see a
46:32blurring between AI tokens and money. AI
46:36macro nexus point.
46:39If you don't know anything about crypto,
46:44you're going to have a hard time in this
46:46new world as tokenization comes. So,
46:48here's the visual for you on this. The
46:51cost per token continues to collapse.
46:53The economic viable task rises. We're
46:55getting Jeban's paradox. That's what it
46:57looks like. That's why the pie is
46:59getting bigger and bigger and going
47:00there. That's why focusing on whether
47:02Anthropic is going to have their
47:03revenues grow or not is ridiculous.
47:04They're never going to stop or they will
47:06at some point, but not in the near term
47:07because the pie is just growing too fast
47:09because the adoption phase is still
47:11here. We just don't have anybody still
47:14going through in those size. It's better
47:16than it was a year ago, but we're in the
47:17early stages because nobody's using
47:19agents yet, which I'll show you with
47:20crackpot. So, this is the visual that
47:22comes. AI breaks the relationship
47:24between economic output and human time.
47:28This is what I basically said, the old
47:31economy, which economists like to do
47:34research on, and the new economy, the
47:37one that's built on capital, energy,
47:39compute, tokens, human judgment, output.
47:41So, if everyone's told you it's going to
47:42blow up, the economy is not AI. It's all
47:44AI, all this stuff. It's irrelevant. AI
47:47is here. It's going to be here. The
47:49capital will be raised. They will
47:51continue to grow. If you got a chance to
47:53read the paper I did last week, which is
47:54all on the All-In podcast, go read it,
47:57subscribers. If you were sitting at the
47:59beach and you didn't get a chance, go
48:00read it and just realize so you don't
48:02have to call me about is Anthropic done?
48:05Did you see the news? I don't care.
48:08It's going higher. All of it. The
48:10problem is the stocks are not going to
48:12respond the way they did in the first
48:13quarter which is frustrating people
48:14because they're fully still at the
48:16buffet table bloated with all of the AI
48:19infrastructure stuff which is going to
48:20outperform but I think people are
48:22looking for 20 30 40 50% outperformance
48:26and that's where I think it's going to
48:27be an issue personally I think some of
48:28them will but not all of them um don't
48:31need to go through this again um it's
48:34just really an emphasis that the
48:35implications from an investment
48:37standpoint is changing time which is why
48:39Stripe is saying the singularity has
48:41begun.
48:44Don't forget tokenized stocks are
48:46happening the other side of crypto and
48:49this is the trading volume in tokenized
48:51equities which again fits in a lot with
48:54all the things that we were talking
48:57about. So my 46 name equal weight
49:00tokenized index over Bitcoin again
49:03showing you that number one the
49:06ecosystem is outperforming Bitcoin right
49:09now which is good even outperformed this
49:12week it's up for the year now the
49:15ecosystem which includes Bitcoin but
49:17it's equal weight so this is the 46 name
49:18equal weight index uh of companies
49:22Bitcoin's there and you can see how
49:23highly correlated they are which again
49:25is why if you want to invest in the 40
49:28name equal weight. You can invest in
49:29Bitcoin and you're going to get
49:31basically the ecosystem. As this goes
49:33higher, this will go higher. I don't
49:35need to take you guys through now. If
49:37you want to read some of my old stuff,
49:38you can do that. If you want to call up
49:40and call Mark Whailing, go ahead. I'll
49:43give you guys why Bitcoin so important
49:45to this group. So, these are the 10
49:47verticals. Not going to read you all of
49:50them. Two of them are up big this year.
49:54The eight of them are down. the two that
49:56are up. Digital monetary assets. This
49:59this one, I'm not going to go through
50:01the names in them, but there's a lot of
50:03stuff going on in this AI agents in the
50:06machine economy. Not surprisingly, doing
50:08well. Um, these are all turned up this
50:11week. They're highly correlated, but
50:13there's 46 of them, including
50:19up. We're destroying the valuation, and
50:22that means multiples should compress.
50:24That means as the S&P grows earnings 35%
50:27as they look like they're doing this
50:29year, maybe the S&P is up 20.
50:33That's not the way it normally works. If
50:35we were in a bubble, as people say with
50:38everything going on and earnings growing
50:40at unprecedented levels, no hiring, no
50:42worry about the labor market, inflation
50:44is in check despite what people tell you
50:47uh on where it may go or may not go.
50:49People still saying double-digit
50:51inflation and stuff like that to scare
50:52people. The reality is we should be up
50:5550%, 100%. I saw the NDX or the NASDAQ
50:59bubble. These names should be up a lot
51:01more at this point. We we we had a
51:03cancer vaccine this week for Christ's
51:04sake with melanoma.
51:07The market finished down for the week.
51:10Like cancer vaccine,
51:13this is not a bull market. Meaning this
51:15is not a bubble.
51:17You're going to have to hedge yourself
51:18in the fact that this is already showing
51:20signs of weakness. the aging fiat system
51:22is showing up. And so again, the next
51:24constraint is financial. It's not
51:26physical. The physical side outperformed
51:28the first part. That's what this year is
51:30about. Next year, in my opinion, it's
51:32all about understanding how to invest in
51:34these. And most people haven't started
51:38the work. They haven't done anything on
51:40it. And I can tell you that based on the
51:42questions I get now, a lot of the people
51:44that watch this video and especially
51:46this week given what happened with
51:47Bitcoin
51:48understand. But everyone else is trying
51:51to trade treasuries and trade FX and
51:54short the NASDAQ and wait for I I like
51:56they're just wasting their time playing
51:58around in an old age home with inside
52:00that market. And now that the physical
52:03part of AI has been discounted that
52:06everyone's long it it's going to be
52:09harder. That's the way markets go. And
52:11then the stuff like Eli Liy, nobody
52:13wants to hear me talk about Eli Liy.
52:14Nobody. because they don't care about a
52:16company growing revenues 50%
52:18year-over-year unless it moves 100, 200,
52:20300%. Bitcoin will do that. Ethereum
52:22will do that. And that's where I think
52:24people will go. Reach out to Mark
52:25Whailing, get your sample package with
52:28some of the work that we do. And for you
52:30RAAS and FAS,
52:32cancel your subscriptions at someone to
52:35put me on there unless they have this.
52:38If they have it, God bless you. You'll
52:40get the work. But if you're paying
52:42someone to talk about things that don't
52:44matter, I don't know how that helps your
52:46business going forward. And maybe it
52:48helps it today and maybe you're in a
52:50cushy job and you're just sitting there.
52:51But I'm just telling you, we're living
52:53in a world of so much noise and so many
52:56questions are going to come from people.
52:58You want to outperform and you got to be
53:00on top of where the crypto side is.
53:01Again, above the 200 day moving average
53:03in Bitcoin. I am going to be pounding my
53:05my my hands [snorts] on the table and
53:08doing everything because the tape is
53:10telling me to. I already had the story
53:12and the narrative and believed in the
53:13trend that was going on with the
53:14government and the revenues and the
53:16math. But now we have the tape as well.
53:19Signal verse noise.
53:23The endgame bias again. So again
53:26this thing going to kill you. Okay. This
53:30has been now one, two, three years of
53:35tenure rates trading between four and
53:37470 for almost the entire time. And yet
53:41every technical person, every per they
53:44want to tell you it's going to break
53:45out. It's going to six. It's going to
53:46seven. I've seen all the charts and
53:48they're fighting the government. Can it
53:50happen? Yeah. But when people start
53:51telling me the United States of America
53:53is an emerging market because we're
53:56keeping rates, that is just BS.
54:02Nvidia
54:05again every time I hear a is a bubble
54:07the reason it's noise is because until
54:09Nvidia which is still growing their
54:11earnings these are the numbers the last
54:14three years this is insane
54:19are they lower than they were here yeah
54:22this was the beginning of the data
54:24center buildout these are the
54:26expectations here's the PE E based on
54:30those numbers, a PEG ratio below one on
54:33what should be trading probably double
54:35where it is. I think the PE should be 50
54:39based on what a bubble would look like.
54:42So, just remember that that every time
54:43you hear bubble, it's total BS. Oil,
54:48first of all, going to 200 was a joke.
54:50This is the year-over-year rate of
54:52change in the sixth contract of oil,
54:56guys. This is a fact. So when you tell
55:00me that oil's up and we're going to 90
55:01and we're going this, I don't care one
55:03bit. I don't know how many cycles you
55:06guys have lived through. Oil being up
55:0827% year-over-year does not matter one
55:10bit. Doesn't matter. So unless something
55:14changes, and again, if it moved up here,
55:16it doesn't matter. 40% year-over-year,
55:18it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
55:20where it goes to. It matters if it sits
55:22there at a long time. So, if you think
55:24that that's going to happen, that's
55:26great, but it's not there. So, go buy
55:30oil stocks and just stop talking about
55:32how it's going to take down the economy.
55:34Here's the multiple in the S&P off next
55:36year's earnings. This is the one. This
55:38is the PEG ratio or sorry, the PE on
55:41forward estimates on on the S&P. The
55:43reason I want to bring this up is
55:44because AI agents came out. Here's
55:47what's happened to the PE of the S&P.
55:50We've gone down 20%. So this is off next
55:54year's earnings. That's how much
55:55earnings have gone up despite the fact
55:57that the price has gone higher.
56:00This is not a bubble. If anything, this
56:02is the market telling you we believe
56:04terminal value is ending. We believe you
56:07cannot value the market. I believe this
56:09number will continue to decline in an
56:12upward tape, meaning prices will
56:14underperform earnings until we start to
56:18see profit margins work out and then the
56:20multiple will really collapse because
56:22that means the entrepreneurship is
56:24growing. I'm telling you this because
56:25once the growth rate stops, this is
56:28everyone's biggest position in the
56:29world. And I am not positive on the S&P
56:33500. I am not positive on this chart. I
56:37believe this thing will continue to go
56:39down because of AI.
56:45Here's the performance of the S&P from
56:48the end of 2022, that bare market to
56:50now. The reason I want to show this is
56:52because regardless of what my views are
56:54in 2030, the reality is the S&P is
56:56pumping out 20% a year despite all the
56:58noise, despite the tariff fears, despite
57:00uh SVB, despite uh the war in Iran. Like
57:05guys, no matter what happens, you're
57:08getting 20% in this. Like this has
57:11become a thing. It's been a thing since
57:13the great financial crisis. That's why
57:15everyone calls it a bubble. But it just
57:17continues. Could it fall at some point?
57:19Yeah. But again, earnings are growing.
57:23There's no there's no debt to be a
57:24problem other than AI, and AI's revenues
57:26are growing rapidly. Here's Nvidia. So,
57:29if you've gone through all of the bubble
57:30part, the deepseat fears, and all of the
57:32things that have made you not belong in
57:36Vidia,
57:37it's up 109% since 2022.
57:41Sorry, a year. It's up since 2022, 14.
57:46You've had a 14 bagger despite all of
57:48the AI bubble fears that have gone on.
57:51And this is again 2022 is coming out of
57:53the rate hike cycle, but it's also when
57:56chatpt started. It's a 14 bagger. Micron
57:58did a 14 bagger recently.
58:05All right. This doesn't want to come up.
58:09No. Having a little problem here with my
58:16All right. Well, unfortunately, I knew
58:19this was going to happen at some point.
58:21Let's see if it's going to come up. All
58:23right. I'm just going to leave this here
58:24for now. So this is the Micro Strategy
58:27uh returns
58:29which are good. Uh they're up 600%
58:32during that time period.
58:37Let me see if I can switch this up
58:39another way.
58:48All right. Well, given the fact that I'm
58:50not going to uh
58:56restart the video.
59:06I'm going to try and do this the
59:07oldfashioned way. So, you guys are going
59:10to bear with me. You're going to get
59:12some enjoyment. There's going to be no
59:14editing because this is a oneman show.
59:15And now I see what the problem is.
59:20Jord's got no Wi-Fi right now.
59:25So, we're going to switch Wi-Fi because
59:27you know me, I got a backup for that
59:29stuff.
59:34Love to give you more entertainment, but
59:36unfortunately, this is the best I got,
59:38guys. So, just bear with me here as I
59:40get you back to where we were. Ignore
59:42this part if you didn't fast forward to
59:44it. I appreciate you sticking with me.
59:46All right, see we're back. You just got
59:48to give me time to get through things.
59:51All right, MSDR
59:5376% a year since 22. The reason I want
59:56to bring this one up is 76% a year is
1:00:01what it's produced since the end of
1:00:032022. And this is where the chart is.
1:00:06What do you think's going to happen when
1:00:08Bitcoin goes back to all-time highs? So
1:00:10again, for all you noise people on Micro
1:00:13Strategy, give me a break.
1:00:17Uh, here's the month-to- date numbers
1:00:20for the Globe.
1:00:26Here are the year-to- date numbers for
1:00:28the Globe. The Cosby, despite its crash,
1:00:30just like that Micro Strategy thing, up
1:00:3264%. Reason I'm bringing this up is for
1:00:35all the noise you guys have heard on the
1:00:36equity market and the bubble and
1:00:38everything, the reality is it's just
1:00:40fine. Signal verse noise.
1:00:45Here's the JV thematic portfolio. So
1:00:49again, I'm going to say this over and
1:00:50over again. By the end of the year, I
1:00:51expect new all-time highs in this. For
1:00:53everyone who's just jumping in, think
1:00:54we're going to do one of these again.
1:00:56Not happening in my opinion. No chance,
1:00:58no way, no how. I'll show you why. Do I
1:01:00think we're going to grind our way
1:01:01higher? Yes. Remember this fall the VA
1:01:04exploded in the names. And like I said,
1:01:06these names are coming out of the ICU.
1:01:08They're just been released. That's what
1:01:10this low was. They're not going to be
1:01:12healthy again for at least 6 months.
1:01:16Some of the names will, and the names
1:01:18that I've highlighted to you, my biggest
1:01:20positions with inside this portfolio,
1:01:23um, Eli Liy doesn't really count. Silver
1:01:26doesn't really count, but it's part of
1:01:27the portfolio. Bitcoin doesn't really
1:01:30count because you guys either don't
1:01:32believe in it or it's not one of the
1:01:34names in the thematic portfolio that you
1:01:35guys um are in. Marll, I still love it.
1:01:39I'm still sticking with it. I still
1:01:41think there's a triple quadruple from
1:01:43here in my opinion. Um take it for what
1:01:45it is. It's just me thinking that it's
1:01:47going to go higher over the course of
1:01:48the next few years in a big way. I have
1:01:51Microner
1:01:52than it was before. Uh, and then I have
1:01:54a lot of little names like Chamore,
1:01:57Camores, um, Fluence, uh, a lot of
1:02:00things in there that are just kind of
1:02:02tiny positions that I still have that I
1:02:04think eventually will, uh, be something
1:02:06that I want to remember I have in there
1:02:08and have a big bigger position in. Uh,
1:02:10but they're very, very tiny at this
1:02:11point. So, I think we're going to get
1:02:13back and forth. I think these lows to me
1:02:15are absolutely the low. I think we're
1:02:17going to get through the highs. I just
1:02:19don't think it's going to be in a
1:02:22moonshot way like it was here. And most
1:02:24importantly, some of the names like
1:02:27Fluence is down 50% from where I think I
1:02:30made my highest purchase in it. 50%. I
1:02:34expect those types of things, guys. I'm
1:02:36in the name. I'm in I have a little tiny
1:02:38position in EOS as well, which is down
1:02:40even more than that. So, just remember
1:02:43the way that I deal with my portfolio is
1:02:46going to be different than you guys.
1:02:47trade your names based on the way you
1:02:49trade risk. But right now, I think
1:02:51crypto, Eli, Lily, silver, those are the
1:02:53places that I rotated into and reduced
1:02:56all those other things. The anthropic
1:02:59thing, which scared the hell out of
1:03:00people and got everyone going, it is
1:03:02just complete noise, guys. For Christ's
1:03:05sake, it's just complete noise.
1:03:08Um, and Warren Pies put this out. I I
1:03:11knew when I read it, it was going to
1:03:13have an impact. I'm kind of surprised he
1:03:15didn't realize. I didn't I like Warren a
1:03:17lot but I mean we are seeing some early
1:03:20cracks in our GPU availability data.
1:03:22Anything that comes out like that people
1:03:24are going to overreact to. So he's not
1:03:27going to overreact but everyone else did
1:03:28but have to call balls and strikes. We
1:03:30are going to get to a point where GPU
1:03:31pricing stops going higher. That does
1:03:33not mean anything bad is going on guys.
1:03:35Sorry. They shouldn't be going higher in
1:03:38the first place. That was the whole
1:03:39argument is that they depreciate at some
1:03:41point. They'll just go sideways at a
1:03:43high level. The fireworks show is over.
1:03:46So, I just wanted to remind you guys
1:03:47this as thinking about the way this is
1:03:49going to move. I talked about it now
1:03:51enough, but just keep this in the back
1:03:52of your mind that one of the hardest
1:03:54things for investors to recognize during
1:03:56an exponential technical technological
1:03:58transition is the difference between new
1:03:59information and delayed understanding.
1:04:02A lot's changed. A lot has changed.
1:04:06Everyone's involved. So, this is where I
1:04:09think we are in AI. The fireworks show
1:04:10is over and the last couple weeks have
1:04:12been the climax of an incredible
1:04:13display. This is from the first week of
1:04:15June. Maybe this is my time to be caught
1:04:17going against the exponential tide.
1:04:19Nope, it wasn't. It was exactly the
1:04:21right time to be writing this paper
1:04:22because June 6 was a time that if you
1:04:24reduced your positions, you'd be in a
1:04:27lot better shape and be a lot more
1:04:28aggressive and not caring as much about
1:04:30the back and forth. But I think the
1:04:31warning signs are clear. More people are
1:04:33now fighting against the bottleneck and
1:04:34shortage side. This was my argument
1:04:36against what would be the likely cause
1:04:40against the agentic AI buildout itself.
1:04:42For me, that usually means the all you
1:04:43can eat AI buffet has left everyone full
1:04:45and in need of a digestion period. I
1:04:47still think that's going on. Um, I just
1:04:50want to let you This is the Goldman
1:04:51Sachs most crowded hedge fund names
1:04:54overlaid with my thematic portfolio.
1:04:57This just means that everyone's in the
1:04:59AI infrastructure trade. Doesn't mean
1:05:00it's wrong. Hedge funds do very well and
1:05:02I'm sure that's going to work out well,
1:05:04but they're in it, which makes it
1:05:05harder. Secondly, this V differential,
1:05:08you have to remember we had a period
1:05:10where because it was going up so fast, V
1:05:13was going higher while you were making
1:05:14money. That is not a normal thing.
1:05:16Normally, V is going higher and people
1:05:17are losing money unless they're short
1:05:19the market. The fact he made money while
1:05:21the market was going higher. When Vin
1:05:23kept going higher around here and the
1:05:25market went down, that's when the issue
1:05:27came in. This is overlaid with six-month
1:05:29Vault. This is a structural difference
1:05:31in the marketplace. And this is Micron
1:05:33and IBM 90-day V overlaid with the S&P
1:05:3790-day V going back to 2009 since the
1:05:40great financial crisis. This has never
1:05:42happened before, ever that you could
1:05:45have the biggest companies in the market
1:05:47having V spike and the S&P not move.
1:05:52Tech momentum
1:05:545% moves a day in the Morgan Stanley
1:05:56tech momentum. I just did a histogram of
1:05:58it. uh none in this period post the
1:06:02great financial crisis. Um 57 so far
1:06:06this year. We're not even eight months
1:06:08or through the year. We're not even
1:06:11we're we're just at a point right now,
1:06:12guys, when you go through this that it's
1:06:14insane how much we've moved. Here's the
1:06:18Nvidia pain trade. So here's their
1:06:21earnings never stopping. So they just
1:06:24keep going. They just the energ the
1:06:27Energizer Bunny keeps going. This arrow
1:06:29here points to the problem. Beginning in
1:06:312024 after Wow, this looks a lot like
1:06:34the AI thematic trade. Let's assume
1:06:36maybe this is where it was.
1:06:40Okay, so
1:06:42this is the price movement. Okay, this
1:06:46is what happened to the PE ratio. So the
1:06:49PE ratio peaked there
1:06:52in the 40-50
1:06:54area and now it's down at 19. That is
1:06:58called moving higher in mud. That's the
1:07:00Nvidia mud trap. You want to see how
1:07:02painful it is from an alpha perspective
1:07:05since June 7th of 2024. For the last 26
1:07:10months,
1:07:11this is Nvidia relative to the S&P.
1:07:15Aside from these two bars, you've
1:07:18basically been in the same death trap as
1:07:20tenure rates.
1:07:22So, if you're looking for this for
1:07:24alpha, which is why everyone has boycott
1:07:25it, which everyone complains about it,
1:07:27here is how you made money. This is when
1:07:30it outperformed from April of 25
1:07:34to August of 25 for four months out of
1:07:3726. That's the only time you made money
1:07:39on the alpha side other than just
1:07:40trading it. So this is what I expect for
1:07:43most of the infrastructure trades. They
1:07:45are going to be beast now because it's
1:07:47discounted because we're going to see
1:07:49multiple compression. Even though the
1:07:50multiples are low, the PEG ratio on
1:07:53Nvidia is no different than those PEG
1:07:54ratios and it's been there almost the
1:07:56entire time.
1:07:58S&P 500 17% a year since 2024. Nvidia
1:08:03was 30%. So you get that alpha
1:08:05outperformance, but again it's very
1:08:07frustrating to have it in there. So I
1:08:09expect that to happen. All right, let's
1:08:11move and start to finish this up. It's
1:08:12gone too long, but it's an important
1:08:14one. I'm going to blast through
1:08:17Grockbot.
1:08:18I would estimate my personal AI usage is
1:08:20up like a hundred times. Completely
1:08:22agree with Gavin Baker. That's why I put
1:08:24this began managing people in my 20s
1:08:26after 48 hours using Rockbot. One thing
1:08:28is clear. Access to a team of 247 365
1:08:31digital employees has just been
1:08:32democratized from a usability
1:08:34standpoint, not a price standpoint. This
1:08:36thing still costs $200 a month. I
1:08:38believe it's the cheapest you can get it
1:08:39for. However, I would try it for a month
1:08:42and I'm going to show you why. But
1:08:45this has been unbelievable in a short
1:08:48amount of time. So, for those of you who
1:08:50have not gone through the open claw or
1:08:52maybe you started it and you gave up or
1:08:54Hermes or you used it and you got
1:08:56frustrated because XYZ happened, this is
1:08:59Elon Musk and Cursor's
1:09:02solution and it is awesome.
1:09:05So, I'm just showing you what it looks
1:09:07like and just showing you how I started
1:09:09it. It took me zero time to start. You
1:09:12start, you have a chief of staff and
1:09:16then you just start creating bots. You
1:09:18just create them and you give them a
1:09:21title, a writer, a gent commerce
1:09:24research person.
1:09:27Then the next stage for me is I went,
1:09:28you know what, I want there to be a
1:09:30chief of staff that reports to me and
1:09:31then they report to the chief of staff.
1:09:33So I can either ask the chief of staff a
1:09:36question and then that Jarvis in my case
1:09:39can go ask Victor, Mary or Bernie who
1:09:42are specialists in editing, Agentic
1:09:45Commerce, Deep Researcher. These are all
1:09:47things I do for my writing. I do a ton
1:09:49of research using AI. I write my papers.
1:09:52I have an editor go through. I bounce
1:09:53off suggestions with them. And then
1:09:55Agenta Commerce is my favorite thing to
1:09:57get news items on. So in this case
1:10:01running the weekend tape scan now. So I
1:10:04create these routines which show up over
1:10:06here. They run these on their own. This
1:10:09is not on my computer. This is in the
1:10:10cloud. This is a massive moment. So when
1:10:14I have my open claw and I have to use a
1:10:16certain intelligence. I have to download
1:10:18it onto my computer. I don't want it to
1:10:20be around my files. This one is
1:10:21integrated with my files and I love it.
1:10:24It's also integrated with my login to my
1:10:27apps. I'll show you some of that. Now,
1:10:30I've expanded it. So, this is where I
1:10:32wanted to go. And for you guys who
1:10:33actually get it and try it. If you just
1:10:36consistently put the sheets that I
1:10:38upload to the subscriber website for my
1:10:41technical pages for the fundamental
1:10:42pages all to a folder and then you just
1:10:45connect this to the folder one time and
1:10:47just say, "Okay, I want you to connect
1:10:49to this folder." And you give it the
1:10:50location and you give it an instruction.
1:10:52I only want you to use this for data.
1:10:54You don't write anything. You don't save
1:10:55anything. You don't do anything. You
1:10:57just have it access it and then you can
1:10:59go in and ask it questions like
1:11:02how many of the names in technical sheet
1:11:04were above the 50-day moving average the
1:11:05last week and it goes through. Okay, how
1:11:08many were above the two 20-day of the 72
1:11:10that were above the 20? This takes it's
1:11:12instant in terms of the reaction speed.
1:11:15This is why you need to use it. Then you
1:11:17can go even further and then you can
1:11:19basically go now give me a list of how
1:11:20many were above the 50-day moving
1:11:21average by week by week. So, it gives me
1:11:24that thing that I show you guys in terms
1:11:25of how many are above from prior weeks.
1:11:28It's taking it's going through all of
1:11:30the files on the sheet and doing that.
1:11:32If I want to go through which ones are
1:11:34near the all-time highs or the furthest
1:11:35away from all-time highs very quickly,
1:11:37anything I want to get from it. And you
1:11:39can see that I added agency, alpha,
1:11:42signal, each one of these has a
1:11:44different skill set that I'm using. You
1:11:46can do this for anything. I connected
1:11:48one and I called it call. This is my
1:11:51earnings commentary one. So, all I got
1:11:52to do in is put the stock symbol and
1:11:54then it goes through and it gives me the
1:11:56last four reported all of this stuff,
1:11:58guys. And it takes seconds. It's just
1:12:00how many ideas you can figure out and
1:12:03where you can go. So, in this case, I
1:12:06went into the computer. There's a
1:12:07computer screen over here, which is on
1:12:09the cloud. You sign into your site. It's
1:12:13part of this. And then this one here,
1:12:15alpha, I just go into it and say, "Give
1:12:17me the bull bear case." And it goes to
1:12:19X. I'm doing it on X. I want to see the
1:12:22bull bear case and anything you can
1:12:23connect to whatever apps you want inside
1:12:25here. It's not on your computer. It's in
1:12:28the cloud. Then you can go in and
1:12:30create. Okay, I want to go through and I
1:12:32want to make sure it's helping me get
1:12:34ready for anything during the week. I
1:12:36save my stuff into notion. It has a
1:12:39notion notion plugin. So when it's
1:12:41running stuff, it saves thing to its own
1:12:43notion account uh notion uh folder. And
1:12:47then I go look at it on Friday before I
1:12:49do this with you guys to see if there's
1:12:50anything else that I may have missed for
1:12:51the week. So you can see how this goes.
1:12:55It's got all these runs that it does for
1:12:57me. I just wanted to make sure you guys
1:12:59saw it. This thing is important. So to
1:13:01finish up the week, Maderna shares more
1:13:03than double on success of
1:13:05MRNA cancer vaccine. I've talked about
1:13:08this. I've said publicly we will start
1:13:11being a in a place based on everything
1:13:13that I read and talk to that by 2030 we
1:13:16will be at the point where you can say
1:13:18safely we will be able to stop all
1:13:21disease in the foreseeable future that
1:13:24people won't have to die from disease.
1:13:28You have to think about what that means
1:13:30for the stock market what that means for
1:13:32companies what that means for the
1:13:34deficit the debt all these things.
1:13:36Again, you have to think forward on
1:13:38these things, but we're getting now
1:13:39things like a cancer vaccine. I wrote
1:13:42this in November of last or in June of
1:13:45this year on Eli Liy in terms of what's
1:13:49going to happen, but I wrote this back
1:13:52in November of 25 on how artificial
1:13:54intelligence is transforming pharma's
1:13:56broken economics. I highlighted some
1:13:58things in there. I'm not going to read
1:14:00it because I've gone further, but I did
1:14:02ask JT GBT, "What would happen to the
1:14:03stock market if humanity discovered a
1:14:05true, widely accessible cure for
1:14:07cancer." Its answer was blunt. Global
1:14:09equities would likely surge 20 to 30%
1:14:11almost immediately as markets replace
1:14:13longer lifespans, longer health care
1:14:15burden, lower healthcare burdens, and
1:14:17higher future consumption.
1:14:20Just think about what we're going
1:14:22through. So the argument I made in that
1:14:24November paper was that pharma was
1:14:25entering a new place of a rerating.
1:14:28Legacy pharma is a 5% growth thing with
1:14:3125% free cash flow margin. It fails the
1:14:34rule of 40 growth asset test. But if it
1:14:37goes to 10 to 12 and free cash flow
1:14:39improves because of the benefits that
1:14:41come from AI both on the discovery side
1:14:43and the efficacy side but also on the
1:14:47efficiency side they would get it to a
1:14:49rerating.
1:14:51I believe multiples will go from 12 to
1:14:5515 to 20 to 25. And this is one of the
1:14:57reasons why I've said publicly
1:15:00that Eli Liy will be the biggest company
1:15:02in 5 years. So I believe Eli Liy is a
1:15:06cash cow bringing in money on obesity
1:15:08medicine that everyone would like to get
1:15:12because it's the biggest problem in the
1:15:13country. And if they get those, it has
1:15:15huge implications for the revenues. And
1:15:17as they're getting that cash in the
1:15:19door, they are doing M&A like a drunken
1:15:22sailor right now. They are buying up
1:15:24companies because stage two IP is now
1:15:28worth a lot of money if you believe by
1:15:30taking it and you have your own AI data
1:15:33center, which they do and you connected
1:15:35to it, you should start to see more
1:15:37value on this. And I can tell you from
1:15:39the few people I know in the healthcare
1:15:40side, they're not all over this. It's
1:15:43science people that are, but there's too
1:15:45many people that are doubting this. So,
1:15:47you guys can read this on your own. It's
1:15:49been an important week in my mind. We'll
1:15:51see if Bitcoin can stay above the 200
1:15:52day moving average. For those of you who
1:15:54want to reach out, just call Mark, email
1:15:56Mark Whailing. Um, I think it's an
1:15:59important time. The crypto stuff will be
1:16:01a video and papers that come out
1:16:04probably weekly. They'll be on the
1:16:06subscriber site, both the videos and
1:16:08that. If you guys are interested, great.
1:16:11You can go over to the website. This
1:16:13will be part of everyone who's already
1:16:14signed up as a subscriber. There's no
1:16:16additional cost. It's just going on
1:16:17there, which means if anyone subscribes
1:16:19primarily for the crypto side, you're
1:16:21going to get the AI side, too. You can
1:16:22find out more about it. Have a great
1:16:24week, guys. I will see you definitely
1:16:26from Brooklyn next week. Sorry for the
1:16:28little glitch in the video. Uh, but when
1:16:30you're oneman show, sometimes you just
1:16:32got to make do. See youa.

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