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The AI bubble just burst — Transcript

by Casey Simpson · 8,498 words · 1,265 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00It finally happened. The AI bubble
0:02burst. If you have any money in the
0:04stock market or if you've ever used AI,
0:06you're going to want to hear this.
0:07>> The AI bubble is not going to burst. It
0:10already has.
0:11>> The two most popular indexes of the US
0:13stock market are the S&P 500 and the Dow
0:16Jones. They both try to broadly capture
0:18the US economy, but the biggest
0:20difference is that the S&P 500 has a lot
0:23more tech and AI stocks. Over the past
0:26few months, the Dow Jones has continued
0:28to rise, while the AI and tech exposed
0:31S&P has actually gone down. That should
0:34have been our first warning sign that
0:35something was wrong. The S&P went down
0:37because tech stocks did so badly that
0:40they erased the gains made by every
0:42other kind of stock in the index. The
0:44next major warning was that for the
0:46first time in Google's 20year history as
0:49a company, they lost money. In their
0:51last earnings report, they posted a
0:53negative cash flow of $6 billion.
0:57>> I cannot overemphasize how
0:59earthshattering this is because if
1:00Google can't make money on AI, nobody
1:03can. But also, this whole thing was just
1:05inevitable because it was just very
1:08basic math. As of this recording, $2.4
1:10trillion has been spent on AI
1:13collectively. And of all of the AI
1:16companies, do you know how much profit
1:18they have made off of that $2.4 4
1:20trillion,
1:22$50 billion. Or in other words, AI has
1:26collectively lost $2.35 trillion. So
1:30yeah, the AI bubble has already burst.
1:32The only reason that we're not treating
1:34it like it already burst is because all
1:36of these companies that are basically
1:38passing the same couple billion dollars
1:40between each other to try to keep this
1:42whole machine running are pretending
1:44that the bubble didn't burst. because
1:46they know that the minute it is common
1:47knowledge the bubble burst, they will
1:50all go out of business. Open AAI will go
1:52out of business. Anthropic will go out
1:54of business. Grock will probably get
1:56absorbed into one of Elon's other weird
1:58companies and then slowly killed off.
2:00And you're probably going to see a giant
2:01overhaul and deprioritization of Gemini
2:04from Google in like the next year or
2:06two. In fact, in some ways, you're
2:07already seeing it because Google just
2:08recently changed all their enterprise
2:10plans to be way less valuable. And the
2:13last domino to fall, of course, will be
2:15Nvidia because Nvidia is the only one
2:17that's actually making money on this
2:19whole thing. And eventually, when all of
2:20the companies that thought they were
2:22going to make money on this whole thing
2:23by giving money to Nvidia, go under,
2:26Nvidia will go under, too.
2:27>> But then the big moment came, the moment
2:29so many people have been warning about
2:31for years now. The Korean version of the
2:33Dow Jones, the index that measures how
2:35the entire stock market is performing,
2:37is called the Kosby. Over the past 20
2:39years, the Kosby has seen extremely slow
2:42growth on the rate of 2 to 3% a year.
2:44But in just the past year, the Kosby
2:46shot up 272%.
2:50For context, in the same period, the
2:52American Dow Jones went up 17%. Korea
2:55clearly pulled ahead of us in the AI
2:56bubble. And the bigger they come, the
2:58harder they fall less than one week ago.
3:01On July 23rd, the Korean AI bubble
3:04burst. their entire stock market
3:06collapsed almost 40% and it's continuing
3:09to fall as I'm recording this video. In
3:11Korea, just like in America, a lot of
3:13investors invest on margin, meaning they
3:15invest with money they don't have. The
3:17bank will match them dollar for dollar,
3:19sometimes $2 for every dollar they have.
3:21That if you have $10,000 you can invest,
3:23the bank will give you another 10,000 of
3:25borrowed money to invest, sometimes
3:27another $20,000 of money to invest. Now,
3:30you have to understand this because the
3:31Korean stock market fell so
3:33precipitously. 1.2 million Korean
3:37households lost so much money that they
3:40no longer had the original amount of
3:42money that qualified them for the loan
3:44in the first place. So, let me just
3:46illustrate this. Let's say you have
3:47$10,000 and you invested in the co-spe
3:49and the bank gives you an additional
3:51$10,000 to invest as well. Then your
3:53entire investment goes up 50%. Now
3:55you've gained $5,000 of your money and
3:58$5,000 of the bank's money. Well, this
3:59stock market collapsed so hard that not
4:01only did investors lose all the money
4:03they borrowed, but they lost so much of
4:05their original capital that the bank
4:07said, "You no longer have enough money
4:09to qualify for that extra $10,000 we
4:12gave you." So, if they started with
4:13$10,000, they lost their original
4:1510,000, but now with a net worth of
4:17zero, they're on the hook to pay back
4:20the 10,000 they borrowed. 1.2 2 million
4:22households, almost a 20th of the entire
4:25Korean working population, woke up to a
4:28message saying their account was shut
4:29down. You lost it all. Older Koreans
4:32lost their entire life savings. People
4:34started filing for divorce. People
4:35started pulling their kids out of
4:37school. This is what uh local Koreans
4:39here in Korea are sharing on social
4:40media. It's actually pretty funny when
4:42you see this stuff. So, basically, um
4:44this is like, you know, a guy asking his
4:46friend, "Hey, what's going on?" and uh
4:48the sheets all you know wet from crying
4:51and they they show the headlines of the
4:52market and stuff like that. Um people
4:54have a sense of humor about this stuff.
4:55Someone's posting that, you know, the
4:57market's down 10%, some stocks are down
4:5912%, you know, etc. And that's his lunch
5:02for the day. All you can afford is rice
5:03and dried seaweed.
5:07[screaming]
5:08>> Here's another one. This is more of a
5:10joke where you're trying to um do CPR on
5:13the stock market, right? So, uh, first
5:15you're trying to give it mouth to mouth
5:16to get the, uh, stock to go up. Now
5:18you're giving the [laughter] like a CVR
5:20form. It's joke, but essentially so many
5:23people are in the markets right now.
5:24Everyone's watching it, so they're
5:25putting all these sort of things on
5:26here. Uh, then you go to the uh, the
5:28Kosby building and start praying for it
5:30to go up.
5:31>> The Kosby is supposed to represent the
5:32entire Korean economy. But just like in
5:34America, the index was over 50%
5:38AI and tech stocks. 42% of the entire
5:41index was just Samsung, a company
5:43heavily investing in AI. So when Samsung
5:46and a couple other companies like
5:47Broadcom and Micron posted weaker
5:49financials than people were hoping for,
5:51people realized this is not going our
5:53way and they started selling stocks and
5:56then more people started selling it and
5:57then it became an entire run and then a
5:59crash. Even the CEO of Micron sold $37
6:02million of his own stock. If the Koreans
6:04got out and the CEOs are getting out,
6:06shouldn't we Americans take notice?
6:08Because one of the few reasons the Kosby
6:10crashed more than American indexes have
6:11is because they had so much of a higher
6:13AI tech concentration. But that doesn't
6:15mean we're immune. A lot of people think
6:17we're next because we're doing
6:18everything that South Korea did. We're
6:20just a few steps behind. We're literally
6:22putting our money in the same companies
6:24South Korea did. But the stakes are so
6:26much higher for a US crash. For one
6:27reason, the entire world economy depends
6:29on the US economy. But another reason is
6:31that the US has literally never had more
6:34of its economy dependent on the stock
6:36market than today. There's more money
6:38and more people invested in the stock
6:40market now than at any point in history.
6:42Literally, most Americans own part of
6:44the stock market. In fact, analysts
6:46report that the AI investment bubble is
6:4917 times larger than the.com bubble and
6:53four times larger than the 2008 mortgage
6:55crisis. When what happened in South
6:57Korea happens here, it will destroy the
7:00world economy. And what's even more
7:02insidious is the exact investment
7:04patterns that took down Korea are
7:06happening in the US. Just like in the
7:08US, housing became totally unaffordable
7:11in Korea. So, Korean young people who
7:13felt like they had nothing to lose
7:14started gambling in the stock market
7:16because they figured they're not going
7:17to get rich by working a job. This gave
7:19AI companies tons of extra money that
7:22they couldn't actually deliver on. And
7:23remember how we established that the
7:24Koreans were borrowing money? so they
7:26could invest even more. We're doing that
7:28in the US. Millions of Americans are
7:30invested in the stock market not only
7:32with their own money, but with borrowed
7:34money. And they're doing it to chase a
7:35higher return. Think about it. If the
7:37stock market goes up 1%, your money goes
7:40up 1%. But if you double the amount of
7:42money you have invested thanks to a
7:44loan, when the stock market goes up 1%,
7:46your money goes up 2%. And that sounds
7:48wonderful until the AI bubble bursts. If
7:51the AI bubble bursts and goes down 20%.
7:53Then you'll lose more than 40%. Or 60%
7:56if you're triply leveraged. And if the
7:58AI bubble goes down just a third and you
8:00have 3x leverage, you'll lose every
8:03dollar you have. It already happened to
8:06thousands in Korea. But now I want to
8:08show you the most sobering statistic
8:10about the entire situation. At its peak,
8:13the South Korean economy had only 1.3%
8:17in margin investing, meaning borrowed
8:19investing. In the US today, it's 4.7%.
8:23It's actually higher than that because
8:24that doesn't count leveraged mutual
8:26funds or leveraged stock options. The
8:29figure before the dotcom bubble was 2%.
8:31Before the housing crisis, it was 2.3%.
8:34Look, is the US a more stable country
8:36than South Korea? Yes. But how far do we
8:38want to push that? We have 50 times the
8:40amount of borrowed money in the stock
8:42market than Korea ever did. The only
8:44reason the US economy is doing so well
8:46right now is because of the magnificent
8:48seven. seven big tech companies who are
8:50spending trillions of dollars on AI and
8:52data centers. Those seven companies
8:55alone are more than a third of the S&P
8:57500. S&P 500, more like S&P 7. If anyone
9:00tries to tell you that the AI bubble is
9:02not an AI bubble, just show them the new
9:04MIT article that shows that 95% of
9:07businesses who implemented generative AI
9:09pilots are failures. and then show them
9:12that the Google CEO recently said in an
9:15exclusive interview that their search
9:17engine is more accurate than their AI
9:19systems and that you shouldn't trust
9:21these things blindly. And then show them
9:24that Nvidia still hasn't paid Open AI
9:27for their hundred billion dollar deal
9:29because Nvidia says that they wrote a
9:31letter to intend to pay, not an actual
9:34deal. Mr. IRS agent, I never agreed to
9:36pay my taxes. I agreed to intend to pay
9:38my taxes.
9:40>> [laughter]
9:41>> I'm going try it. And at this point, you
9:43must be thinking, Casey, surely these
9:45tech billionaires have a plan. Surely,
9:47we're not trusting the entire US and
9:49world economy to them based on vibes.
9:52Right. Right.
9:54>> We have no current plans to make
9:55revenue. We have no idea how we may one
9:57day generate revenue. Um we have made a
10:00soft promise to investors that once
10:02we've built this sort of generally
10:04intelligent system um basically we will
10:07ask it to figure out a way to generate
10:09an investment return for you.
10:13What is this timeline? Bro said our plan
10:15to monetize AI is to ask AI. Holy hell.
10:20Everybody was laughing and he's like why
10:22are you laughing? I have no plan.
10:24>> I have no plan. AI is going to crash and
10:26Sam Alman's going to go on chat GBT
10:28like, "Hey, uh, how do I fix this?"
10:30>> In fact, OpenAI was planning on becoming
10:33a publicly traded company as early as
10:35September and asking for a $1 trillion
10:38valuation, even though their annual
10:40expenses were 26 billion and their
10:43annual revenue was only 13 billion. So
10:45when OpenAI's CFO warned Sam Alman those
10:49numbers could not possibly justify a $1
10:52trillion IPO, do you know what he did?
10:55He stopped talking to her. He stopped
10:57talking to his company's CFO. He
11:00excluded her from financial meetings. He
11:02excluded the chief FINANCIAL OFFICER
11:04FROM FINANCIAL MEETINGS. I'm sure this
11:06guy is cool-headed enough to handle the
11:08entire US economy responsibly. Only 16%
11:11of households with internet pay for any
11:13kind of AI. And IBM reported that only
11:1625% of AI initiatives actually delivered
11:19the return on investment they promised.
11:21And where AI is productive is in very
11:24narrow circumstances. AI benefited
11:27companies financially in writing code
11:29and customer support automation and lost
11:32them money on literally everything else
11:34because all AI does is compile data and
11:38streamline it. It makes sense that it
11:39can program well, but it can't think. It
11:42can't actually be creative. It's
11:43philosophically impossible. Sorry,
11:45Richard Dawkins. But AI companies have
11:47hyped saying that AI will be profitable
11:49in every domain. And that's how they
11:51raised so much money. But now people are
11:53realizing they bought a pig in a poke.
11:56In medieval Europe, pigs were a hot
11:57commodity. Unscrupulous merchants would
12:00sell their finest young pigs to a poor
12:02farmer in a bag called a poke. However,
12:05when the farmer got home, he would
12:06realize that instead of a pig, the
12:08merchant just sold him a dead cat. And
12:11now when referring to a product that was
12:13sold as much more valuable than it
12:15really is, we call it a pig and a poke.
12:18These AI stocks are not the pig we were
12:20promised. I guess that makes us the
12:22farmers. At the very end of last year,
12:24the CFO of Meta said there was so much
12:26demand for their AI products, there's no
12:28way they could possibly build enough
12:30data centers. Now, just a few months
12:32later, Meta is selling those very same
12:35data centers to other AI companies just
12:38so they can stay solvent. There's not
12:40enough demand for Grock either. So Elon
12:42Musk is having to sell his data centers.
12:44All this decreased demand has forced
12:46American AI companies to raise their
12:48prices. So now it's creating an even
12:51worse situation because companies who
12:52still use AI are switching to the
12:54cheaper Chinese AI programs. Airbnb,
12:57Door Dash, Coinbase, Uber, Spotify have
13:00all switched from American AI companies
13:02to Chinese ones. In fact, Pizza Hut is
13:05suing the AI company they used because
13:07it was so unprofitable. It increased
13:09weight times, lowered efficiency, and
13:12cost them $100 million. But beyond all
13:15these failing AI metrics, there are two
13:18additional factors accelerating the
13:20burst of the AI bubble. The first is the
13:22public backlash against AI. Over $65
13:25billion in data center projects have
13:27been stopped because of local
13:29opposition. And I like to think we
13:31played a role in that. I'm not against
13:32data centers in a vacuum, but you don't
13:34get to destroy a town just to put one
13:36wherever you want. This woman turned
13:38down literally $26 million to give up
13:42her family farm for a data set. Her
13:45whole family lived on that land for
13:46generations and she's not going to give
13:48it up to Mark Zuckerberg. Someone
13:50commented, "That's a tremendous amount
13:51of money to turn down. That is
13:53generational wealth. Are you crazy?" But
13:55people rightly pointed out in the
13:56comments the real generational wealth is
13:58the land and house that her ancestors
14:01built that she still lives in and keeps
14:03alive today. I don't think Scarlett
14:05O'Hara would have sold Tara to Mark
14:07Zuckerberg for 26 million either. The
14:10second accelerant to AI's decline is AI
14:12companies running out of cash even as
14:15they're raising hundreds of billions of
14:16dollars. The CFO of OpenAI has literally
14:20asked the US government to buy a 5%
14:22share in the company. And why does she
14:24want to do that? Obviously, so the
14:26government will bail them out when they
14:27collapse. We've seen it so many times.
14:29Billionaires who want to privatize
14:31profits and socialize loss. If you want
14:33to make a successful company that's
14:35worth a billion dollars, that's awesome.
14:37But don't ask the taxpayers to subsidize
14:39it for you because we won't get the
14:40profits if the company succeeds. No one
14:42bought AI hype more than the tech CEOs
14:44themselves. And now it's costing them.
14:47Big tech literally fired 1 million
14:49people in the last couple years because
14:51they thought they'd be able to replace
14:52them with AI. And now they're scrambling
14:55to hire 90% of those jobs back because
14:58the AI failed. Ford released a statement
15:00that they are hiring back their workers
15:02after AI failed to deliver the requisite
15:05technical ability. I'll translate that.
15:07Yo, we tried to get rid of as many of
15:08you human workers as we could, but now
15:11we kind of need you. Would you come back
15:12for some free pizza? Companies that
15:14replaced people with AI are now
15:16desperately trying to get the people
15:18back. They're quickly realizing two
15:20things. AI is not free and AI is not
15:24that great at most jobs. So these
15:26companies are paying millions of dollars
15:28a month for enterprise AI and the result
15:3095% of generative AI pilots are failing
15:34to deliver returns. 29% of companies
15:36that replaced workers with AI are now
15:38rehiring those exact same roles. And 55%
15:42of execs regret replacing people with
15:44AI.
15:45>> So knowing all this, is it any surprise
15:47that US insiders are selling stocks at
15:50the fastest rate in recorded history?
15:52>> The AI bubble is about to burst because
15:55the hyperscalers, as they're called,
15:57have used up all their own cash and are
15:59now borrowing money. They are
16:01effectively net debtors at a time when
16:05they're spending huge volumes of money
16:08on data centers without having any
16:11guarantee that they're going to earn uh
16:14profits from that. And it's that worry
16:17that actually there isn't money to be
16:19made in that business which is gradually
16:21dawning on investors and that's going to
16:24be why they are going to pull away. In
16:26fact, there's already signs of people
16:28withdrawing from the AI sector because
16:30they fear that this is a bubble. It
16:33seems to be utterly inevitable. The
16:35question is only when.
16:37>> Someone commented, "Open AAI is going to
16:38be profitable soon, guys. Just you wait.
16:41Any day now.
16:43>> Any day now."
16:44>> Someone else said, "Hey, remember when
16:45NFTTS were the next big thing?" And then
16:47a bunch of people said, "I hope the AI
16:50bubble bursts. I hope it's so bad." I'd
16:52be careful of thinking like that because
16:54it could hurt the whole economy and put
16:56a lot of people into poverty, but I
16:57really get the feeling.
16:58>> What advice do you give for the average
17:00person that's looking to [music] invest
17:01their salary or their wages?
17:03>> Don't own US stocks. That's a simple
17:05strategy that you can act on.
17:07>> What about S&P 500?
17:09>> No. Really? Yeah. And if you have a big
17:11position in US [music] technology stock,
17:14my personal advice would be to sell them
17:15all.
17:16>> But I'm an investor in SpaceX.
17:17>> Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous BS
17:20story and we can go into that. crypto?
17:22>> No.
17:22>> Why?
17:23>> It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense
17:25that facilitates [music] nothing except
17:27criminals moving money, but they can't
17:29be seen.
17:29>> Do you think Bitcoin is going to go to
17:30zero?
17:31>> Yes, it will certainly go to zero.
17:32>> So, how many years have you spent
17:34investing?
17:34>> 60 years.
17:35>> And what's the most amount of money
17:36you've ever managed of other people's
17:38money?
17:39>> 165 billion.
17:40>> And one of the things you're famous for
17:41talking about is this idea of bubbles.
17:44>> Yes. And bubbles always occur around the
17:46very most important ideas. So, the
17:48railroads, everyone could see that it
17:50would change the world. The same with
17:51the internet and everyone wanted to put
17:52[music] their money in and so they
17:54overinvested but this is the problem
17:56eventually they buff and if you look at
17:59the great bubbles breaking of the past
18:01you find that it's followed by really
18:03tough times a miserable period for the
18:05economy and the bigger the bubble the
18:07bigger the burst and now we're in the
18:08biggest investment bubble that arguably
18:10has ever occurred AI
18:12>> are we on the verge of a collapse with
18:14AI over the coming years
18:15>> the next few days the next few weeks the
18:17[music] next few months but certainly
18:19the next few years. So if you're not
18:21someone that has a huge amount of
18:22savings, what kind of strategy should
18:24they be adopting when an economy starts
18:26to [music] get bad and there's an
18:27economic bubble collapse?
18:28>> So I would go through everything, but
18:30you will not [music] receive this advice
18:33from investment advisers because they'll
18:35lose a lot of business.
18:36>> Would you be thinking about the country
18:38you live in at this moment in time?
18:39>> Absolutely.
18:40>> Is there any countries you wouldn't live
18:41in?
18:41>> I think I have to refuse to answer this
18:44on the grounds that it might tend to
18:45incriminate me.
18:46>> Oh, okay. So you're saying don't live in
18:47the United States. I've just moved here.
18:49Why not the United States?
18:50>> It holds out too much chance that the
18:53social contract is is dissolving.
18:56>> When you say social contract, what does
18:58that mean?
18:58>> It means an agreement that I will behave
19:01in a way that helps my neighbors and
19:03society that I'm doing what people
19:05expect me to do. I'm not going to
19:07misbehave.
19:08>> And you think that's not the case here
19:09in the United States?
19:10>> I think the case here is that people are
19:12doing what they think is best for them
19:13and their family and screw everybody
19:15else. Clearly, when I arrived in
19:18America, corporations had this sense
19:20that they owed something to the
19:22community they operated in, the city
19:24they operated in. They they'd build the
19:27stadium, they'd do this, they they'd be
19:30part of the community. Now they're not.
19:33They're all in a way cold-blooded profit
19:36maximizing international enterprises.
19:38>> Yes, bubbles always form on the most
19:41important ideas. It's not that those
19:42ideas aren't important. It's not that AI
19:45isn't a big deal. People just
19:46overestimate how transformative it'll be
19:48in the short term. That's with anything,
19:50right? Like all our addictions are to
19:51things that are fundamentally good. The
19:53core of a porn addiction is the good of
19:55sex. At the core of compulsive lying is
19:57the healthy desire to be liked by your
19:59closest friends. The core of overeating
20:01is the good of eating. These seven cups
20:03represent the magnificent seven. Apple,
20:06Meta, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Microsoft,
20:09and Nvidia. Nvidia is an important one.
20:12Together, they make up almost 40% of the
20:16entire S&P. Now, let's show why people
20:18are panicking about a possible AI bubble
20:21burst. This is the money that is
20:23currently being poured into artificial
20:26intelligence by these companies. They're
20:28spending almost half a trillion dollars
20:31in things like chips, data centers,
20:33[music] infrastructure. Microsoft alone
20:35is spending nearly $80 billion this
20:38year. Meta is buying 600,000 Nvidia
20:41chips. Amazon and Google are building
20:43citiesized [music] data centers. And
20:46this that tiny cup is the amount of
20:49revenue that's actually coming in right
20:51now from all of this investment. [music]
20:53Not the hype, not the valuations, the
20:56actual revenue. [music] It's maybe
20:58somewhere around $30 to $50 billion. But
21:01to justify all of this investment, these
21:05companies have to pull in between half a
21:07trillion to $2 trillion. This is the
21:10amount of revenue that's coming in right
21:12now from AI when it needs to be able
21:15[music] to fill up this. So, what
21:18happens if this never fills up? Just
21:20kidding. I'm not going to break my
21:21glasses. Everything starts with Nvidia.
21:24They are the backbone to all of these
21:26other companies right now because
21:28[music] they produce the GPUs. If these
21:30companies start pulling back their
21:33investment into AI, that impacts Nvidia
21:36the most. If Nvidia falls, these other
21:39companies also fall and the entire
21:41market falls.
21:42>> Right? If those seven companies go down,
21:44they're taking all of us with them. But
21:46the guy who made that video made an
21:48update explaining that since he recorded
21:50that last video, the warning signs of
21:52the AI bubble bursting arrived.
21:54>> Microsoft stock actually plummeted
21:56overnight. Listen to this from the Wall
21:58Street Journal this morning. market is
22:00getting increasingly worried that this
22:02massive spending which has all been
22:03front-loaded is needing to deliver
22:06results. Now,
22:07>> here's what else happened yesterday.
22:08Norway, which has a $2.2 trillion
22:10sovereign wealth fund and they use a lot
22:12of that to invest in the United States,
22:13did something which I think is one of
22:15the first major blips. They pulled out
22:17of specific sectors in the US and they
22:19reinvested it. But here's the important
22:21part. Here's who they pulled out of.
22:22Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Google.
22:24Remember when I said that Nvidia was the
22:26center of the AI tech bubble possibly
22:28bursting? Well, Nvidia is also the
22:31largest amount that they reallocated.
22:33And that's not the end of it. Amazon
22:34yesterday laid off 16,000 employees at
22:37the corporate level. Now, this was
22:39announced back in November when they
22:41laid off 14,000. So, they were just
22:42completing the job yesterday. But why
22:44did they lay people off? Because they
22:46need AI to replace humans. Are you still
22:49with me? Because I'm about to make it
22:50even worse. Overnight, Reuters reported
22:53that Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are
22:55in talks to invest up to $60 billion
22:58into Open AI. These companies are
23:00literally investing in each other to try
23:03and prevent this bubble from bursting.
23:05>> Exactly. They need to deliver results
23:07now.
23:08>> Today might be the beginning of the AI
23:09bubble popping. Microsoft saw half a
23:12trillion dollars vanish in a single
23:13morning. That is the worst collapse that
23:15they've seen since the 2020 pandemic.
23:17This is how terrified investors are.
23:19Microsoft said that their cloud revenue
23:20dropped from 40% to 39%. That small 1%
23:24difference just cost them the entirety
23:26of Netflix's value. Microsoft, on the
23:28other hand, just told investors that 45%
23:30of its future cloud revenue is dependent
23:32on Open AI, a company that has 1
23:34trillion in future commitments, but only
23:3620 billion in revenue. Wall Street is
23:38fed up with AI's potential and has
23:39started caring about cold, hard cash.
23:41Microsoft just dumped 37 billion into AI
23:44chips and data centers in 3 months.
23:46They're spending like there's no
23:47tomorrow, but the revenue isn't catching
23:49up. When a company can beat expectations
23:51and the stock tanks 12% the next day,
23:53you know that the AI hype era is over.
23:56Someone commented, "Yes, yes, let it
23:59burn." If you've ever seen the movie The
24:00Big Short, it explains how the 2008
24:02financial crisis happened. Well, this
24:04guy remade The Big Short, but about the
24:07AI bubble. These three companies are
24:09going public this year with a total
24:10market cap of $6 trillion. 6 trillion.
24:13You're too close.
24:14>> They go to eight. It's Armageddon. There
24:16literally isn't enough money in the
24:18market to support these three companies
24:19at an $8 trillion market cap. I'm
24:22talking all out stock market collapse
24:24here because everybody knows the AI
24:26bubble's about to burst, but it's making
24:28them richer than they could ever
24:29imagine.
24:30>> Completely sure that.
24:31>> Look at him. That's my wan.
24:33>> Your what?
24:34>> My wand. My wan glaciius. My gardener.
24:38>> Look at him. You see anything different
24:40about him? Look at his mustache, his
24:42sombrero. He pivoted his landscaping
24:45business to AI last month and raised
24:47$300 million from A16Z. All he did was
24:50build an AI agent to trade for him on
24:52Moon. Yes, I'm sure of the math.
24:55Actually, my name's John and I do speak
24:57English. He just likes to say I don't to
24:59make it feel more authentic. I raised
25:01$300 million to build an AI powered lawn
25:03mower. It's the future.
25:05>> Someone said biggest rugpull in human
25:07history. Even the CEO of Google is like,
25:11"Yeah, we might destroy everything."
25:13Sorry. It's also true when we go through
25:16these investment cycles. Uh you know
25:18there are moments we overshoot right
25:21collectively as an industry. We can look
25:22back at the internet right now. There
25:24was clearly a lot of uh excess
25:27investment. I expect AI to be the same.
25:29So I think it's both rational and there
25:32are there are elements of irrationality
25:34through a moment like this. No company
25:36is going to be immune including us. And
25:39this is why all these AI companies are
25:41going public now so they can raise money
25:43because they need money.
25:44>> The AI bubble is finally running out of
25:46cash. So next week it'll start taking
25:48yours. SpaceX is expected to go public
25:50on June 12th. By far the biggest IPO in
25:53history. And there's a reason they're
25:54doing it now and that the other trillion
25:56dollar AI companies are expected to
25:57quickly follow. It's the same reason
25:58Google just started selling its own
26:00stock for the first time since 2005. AI
26:02has gotten way too expensive for these
26:04private markets to fund. So they're
26:05moving to the public markets. the public
26:07markets is you. Here's what'll happen.
26:09On June 12th, SpaceX sells just a sliver
26:11of itself, about 5%, and the stock
26:13likely gets pushed up by Elon fanboys.
26:15Then about 12 days in, a switch flips. A
26:18controversial rule that the NASDAQ just
26:20changed forces SpaceX into the main
26:22stock index. And the second it's in
26:23there, every NASDAQ index fund where a
26:25lot of people saving sit is required to
26:27buy it. They'll be forced to soak up
26:29nearly half the shares available,
26:31selling your Apple, your Microsoft, or
26:32your Nvidia to pay for it. You don't get
26:34a say, right? Then SpaceX's early
26:36investors will finally be able to cash
26:38out in the biggest payday in startup
26:40history. Who is the exit liquidity? You.
26:42But that's not all. Hey. Hey. Remember
26:45when people were upset about RAM prices
26:48skyrocketing because of the RAM shortage
26:50because these companies were giving
26:52their RAM to the AI data centers and
26:55people were worried that they were going
26:56to go after other computer components.
27:00They were right. They were right. Uh,
27:02Western Digital has sold all of their
27:04hard disk drives to AI data centers. So,
27:08Western Digital has said they are
27:09completely sold out of hard disks for
27:10the year of 2026 and they are in
27:12long-term agreements for the next couple
27:15of years. And they say, well, it's not
27:17that big of a deal because only 5% of
27:19our revenue comes from hard disk sales.
27:2389% comes from cloud services. So, it's
27:26a no-brainer. So, we have hard disk
27:29drive shortage, RAM shortage, solid
27:32state shortage, and now we couple that
27:34with Jeff Bezos saying, "You don't need
27:37a PC. We'll just give you a box and you
27:39can rent a PC through the cloud from
27:43us." I know the saying. I've heard it
27:46too many times. You'll own nothing and
27:48you'll like it. I get it. But it seeing
27:51it happen in front of my eyes still
27:53elicits an emotional response for some
27:56reason. And mind you, I'm talking about
27:58just PCs right now, but this applies to
28:00everything technological. PCs, laptops,
28:02phones, anything with a screen like this
28:04that uses RAM and storage. I've said it
28:07before and I'll say it again. Bubble.
28:10It's a bubble. There's no profit so far.
28:13Nothing has been profitable. All these
28:15companies are partnering with them.
28:16They're building these mega structures.
28:18These data centers are literally
28:20creating shortages in our materials. And
28:23yet so far there is no viable method
28:25outside of putting ads in your chatbot.
28:28>> Someone said building my PC 2 years ago
28:30feels like I got the last chopper out of
28:32N.
28:32>> Why did the main guy from the big short
28:34just short Caterpillar? Cuz he's
28:36shorting lots of AI stocks. Caterpillar
28:38makes mining and construction equipment
28:40but also makes power generators which
28:41data centers have been buying. And the
28:43share price is up almost 160% in a year.
28:45Yeah. He's betting against Tesla,
28:46Nvidia, and Applied Materials too. So
28:49the AI boom is dragging all sorts of
28:50directly and loosely connected
28:52businesses up and into stretch
28:54valuations. Yes. And and now one of the
28:56main guys who saw the GFC coming is
28:58piling into short positions in
29:00anticipation of a collapse. Yes. Well,
29:04yeah. But the problem is the timing. I
29:06mean, people were saying that there was
29:06a bubble in the share market in 1986 and
29:09then it doubled and the crash didn't
29:10happen until October 1987. So, it can
29:13take a while. So, do we buy or sell? No
29:16idea. Either way, we're kind of screwed.
29:18That's right. A lot of the warning signs
29:20are here, but that doesn't mean we're
29:21going to have a recession in the next
29:22few months. It could take another year.
29:24It could take more than that. But one
29:25thing that's clear is these valuations
29:28appear unsustainable because all these
29:30companies are just passing money between
29:32each other. It almost feels like a
29:34pyramid scheme.
29:35>> Okay, so here's the full mess. Open AAI,
29:37Soft Bank, and Oracle partnered to build
29:39the $500 billion Stargate data center.
29:42Nvidia invested $30 billion in OpenAI.
29:46SoftBank invested $30 billion in OpenAI
29:48and Amazon $50 billion in OpenAI. Open
29:52AAI will need to buy 500 to600 billion
29:55worth of chips from Nvidia. Oracle
29:57bought $40 billion of chips from Nvidia.
30:00Open AAI signed a $300 billion deal with
30:03Oracle. Then OpenAI signed a $90 billion
30:05deal with AMD for rights to 10% of AMD.
30:08Coreweave, partially owned by Nvidia,
30:11rents out cloud capacity to Meta,
30:13Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, and
30:16Google. Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI, is
30:19a fifth of NVIDIA sales, and rents $30
30:21billion worth of cloud capacity to
30:23Anthropic. Google invested $3 billion
30:26and an additional $40 billion as of late
30:29April 2026 in Anthropic. Anthropic is
30:32using a million Google chips. Amazon
30:34invested eight billion into Anthropic
30:36and built Anthropic its own 11 billion
30:38data center. And even now, these deals
30:41continue to cycle around the industry.
30:43Everyone is everyone else's investor,
30:45supplier, customer, and competitor, all
30:47at the same time. It's like a group of
30:49friends passing the same $50 bill around
30:51the table and each calling it their
30:53paycheck.
30:53>> Yeah. One thing that obscures how much
30:56the AI bubble has already burst is that
30:58these companies have a very large
31:00financial stake in everybody believing
31:03the bubble has not burst. Quite frankly,
31:07THIS BUBBLE IS NOT GOING TO BURST.
31:09PEOPLE think that one day they'll check
31:10their phone and see AI bubble has popped
31:13and then all of the AI apps will
31:15disappear. The RAM prices will drop back
31:17down to normal. But that's not how it
31:20works. It's not the AI models or the
31:22GPUs or the data centers that will pop
31:24and disappear. It's the investment.
31:26Eventually, investors will say, "This AI
31:29thing isn't actually making that much
31:30money, so let's not give them more
31:32investment money for now." And for all
31:33of the random AI products and all of the
31:35random AI apps that are surviving purely
31:38off of that investment money, it's going
31:40to be bad news. But for the big
31:41established AI companies like Google and
31:43Anthropic, the ones that can actually
31:45take a hit and survive, they're still
31:47going to be doing AI. Their financial
31:49sheet is going to look different, but
31:51the models will still exist. The data
31:53centers will keep running. We've seen
31:54bubbles before. The internet was a
31:56bubble. But when that bubble pops, the
31:59technology doesn't disappear. The
32:01companies just get separated between the
32:03ones that can survive on their own and
32:05the ones that can't.
32:06>> When people lose their jobs in one
32:07rapidly expanding, highly lucrative
32:09sector like AI, it leads to people not
32:13spending money. And people not spending
32:15money leads to less revenue across
32:17businesses everywhere. This leads to an
32:19overall economic slowdown. Not to
32:21mention people who have their retirement
32:22funds invested in what's hot on the
32:24stock market. They lose that money too
32:26when those speculative bubbles pop. And
32:28experts are saying this dumpster fire
32:30trajectory is how the AI boom will end
32:33because it's not a matter of if there is
32:35a bubble or not. It's only a question of
32:37when that bubble will pop and how many
32:39lives will it destroy when that happens.
32:41Because the reality is our federal
32:42government is most likely going to bail
32:44out these tech giants that were acting
32:46irresponsibly like Open AI, Anthropic,
32:49Amazon, Google, all these companies that
32:51thought AI was too big to fail. While we
32:54everyday people are left to fend for
32:56ourselves without a job.
32:57>> Exactly. Any AI company on the edge will
33:00be totally wiped out. The biggest
33:03companies will remain gravely wounded.
33:05They'll be like Voldemort and Sorcerer
33:07Stone having to live off of unicorn
33:09blood. But the unicorn blood in this
33:10analogy is our tax dollars when WE
33:12INEVITABLY BAIL THEM OUT.
33:14>> THE GOVERNMENT'S long been in bed with
33:16those Wall Street execs [music] and the
33:17firms that they bled. Capitalism is
33:19about profit and loss. You bail at the
33:22losers. There's no end to the cost.
33:24>> Wow. We would you look at that?
33:26Thousands of CEOs just came out to admit
33:28that AI has absolutely no impact on
33:30employment or productivity and doesn't
33:32achieve anything for them. Who'd have
33:34thought? Really, who' have thought?
33:36despite a healthy majority of S&P 500
33:39companies mentioning AI in their
33:41earnings calls, talking about how
33:42wonderful it is and how it's going to
33:44change how they do everything. It's
33:45going to be so great, guys. Going to do
33:46our content creation. It's going to do
33:48our admin. It's going to do our finance
33:50and it's going to bang my wife while I
33:51sit in the corner watching. Despite
33:53claims by MIT a few years ago that
33:55introducing AI can enhance performance
33:57for workers by nearly 40%. Business
33:59outlook surveys across the Western world
34:02have shown that thousands of CEOs have
34:04come out to say that basically nothing
34:06has changed as the result of them
34:07introducing AI. Very little impact on
34:09operations and most of them use it for
34:11about 1.5 hours a week. Nearly 90% of
34:14firms said AI had no impact on
34:17employment or productivity. That my
34:19friends is why we call it a bubble cuz
34:21it does nothing. It provides nothing. It
34:24is a gimmick. a very expensive little
34:26doohickey that these companies plaster
34:28onto the side of their business to make
34:30it look like they're forward thinking
34:32and advancing and doing really well. In
34:34fact, it does. NADA ZILCH ZIP. People
34:38are making references to the Robert
34:39Salow observation around the information
34:42age about how the introduction of
34:43computers actually slowed productivity.
34:46AI is not changing the face of
34:48everything. It is just an annoyance for
34:50consumers. That is why it is a bubble
34:52that is inevitably going to burst. Even
34:54the boomer CEOs who are desperately
34:56trying to push it onto everything have
34:58had to come out and admit that it does
34:59nothing. It's my opinion even though
35:01it's not because this is the data.
35:03Really seems like everybody inside the
35:05AI bubble is trying to convince
35:06themselves that it's not one. But don't
35:08worry, they'll tell you not to worry.
35:10>> Even if it does turn out to be a bubble,
35:12you shouldn't worry about it. Uh because
35:15it the bubble is driving investment and
35:18a lot of the investment is going to turn
35:19out to be very healthy. It's like the
35:22biotech bubble when it burst in the
35:241990s.
35:26A lot of investors lost money on certain
35:28things, but we still got to keep all the
35:30life-saving drugs that they had
35:32invented.
35:32>> Someone said, "Translation, don't worry
35:34if it's an AI bubble. Even if it is, we
35:36already got all the money, so it's
35:39okay." Someone said, "AI ruined Google
35:41searches, AND I'M SO MAD." So true,
35:44bestie. And it ruined Google
35:46definitions. How am I supposed to know
35:47what anti-isestablishmentarianism
35:49means now? I'm sure you guys will tell
35:51me. [music]
36:02I love this comment. Someone said, "AI
36:04should have never gone further than
36:06Aenator." Aenator was legendary, and no
36:09one hated Aenator. Aenator wasn't like
36:11building data centers in your backyard.
36:13Aenator wasn't telling anyone to kill
36:15themselves. I think when I was playing
36:17Aenator, I actually got it to guess
36:19myself and at that moment he basic
36:23[chanting]
36:26creepy enough for me as far as AI goes.
36:28Like we we should have stopped there.
36:30Microsoft canceling their Claude code
36:32licensing may very well be the beginning
36:34of the end for the AI bubble as we know
36:37it. Microsoft can't afford to use
36:39Claude, which is a big deal because
36:41we're talking about a trillion dollar
36:42company that brings in a net profit of
36:45about a hundred billion dollars a year
36:47and they can't afford to use this
36:49system. If they can't afford to use it,
36:52what happens when it stops getting
36:54subsidized and the public can't afford
36:56to use it? AI is still not profitable.
36:58It's producing more slop than it is
36:59actual good work. And companies that are
37:01using AI on the back end to code are
37:03more susceptible to being hacked. And
37:05now we're seeing Microsoft of all
37:07companies being unable to afford AI.
37:11Anyone who thinks that these systems on
37:13a commercial scalable level are going to
37:16sustain for a long period of time is
37:18just ignorant. Someone told them their
37:20boss told them at work the company's not
37:21going to use AI anymore cuz it's too
37:23expensive. A lot of people are realizing
37:24how bad AI is, but not at the same pace.
37:27a Canadian conservative politician
37:30literally gave a speech where HE READ
37:32HIS AI prompt out loud.
37:35>> If you feel bad for using too much AI,
37:38remember Canadian politician Bill Oliver
37:40left an AI prompt in his speech and
37:43accidentally read it out.
37:44>> That citizens often develop expectations
37:47that exceed the powers actually granted
37:50to those offices. Here's a more natural
37:54flowing version of that section that
37:56reads like a legislative speech rather
37:57than a series of short points. Madam
37:59Speaker, one of my concerns with the
38:01>> He really kept reading with confidence.
38:03Nice save, buddy. If I were you, I'd
38:06move to Argentina and pretend I was a
38:08former Nazi because that would be less
38:10embarrassing than whatever the hell that
38:11was. But if that wasn't embarrassing
38:13enough, watch this guy try to claim the
38:15AI bubble is not a bubble. Source: Trust
38:18me, bro. If you think AI is in a bubble,
38:20take a look at this graphic. This is a
38:22chart of 8.1 billion people versus the
38:25amount of people who have actually used
38:27AI. Out of the entire world, only 16% of
38:30people have used some sort of free
38:32version of an AI chatbot. Only 0.3
38:35people have paid to use AI. And even
38:38crazier, 0.04%
38:41of people have used AI in coding
38:44scaffolds. If you're like me, you
38:46probably see a lot of content about how
38:47everyone is using AI to build some sort
38:50of product or do some sort of thing. But
38:51just realize you are comparing yourself
38:53with people on the bleeding edge of
38:55technology. You're out here talking
38:57about context windows and agentic loops,
38:59whereas 95% of people are just trying to
39:02figure out how to open a PDF.
39:03>> DUDE, THAT PROVES IT IS A BUBBLE. If a
39:05small number of people are using it,
39:06that means it has a very volatile
39:08future. It's not as deeply rooted in
39:10every part of the economy the way
39:12everyone thinks it is. Maybe one of the
39:14silver linings to the AI bubble bursting
39:16is we will stop seeing so many AIs in
39:19every part of everybody's life,
39:21especially on posters.
39:23>> Your AI generated flyer for your
39:25business looks absolutely terrible. And
39:26what's worse, so many people are using
39:28them now that all the flyers look the
39:29same and I can't distinguish your
39:31business from any other business, which
39:32is terrible business practice. I would
39:34literally rather you take a felt tip pen
39:36and write about your business on an A4
39:38piece of paper and stick it in your
39:39window with blue tag than use the
39:41generative AI which looks absolutely
39:43terrible and lacks imagination, lacks
39:45individuality, all looks the same.
39:47There's spelling errors over it and
39:49people have got five fingers. Stop using
39:50it. It looks awful.
39:53>> Who said that?
39:54>> Someone nailed it when they said having
39:55an AI poster gives such scammer vibes.
39:59Which is quite fitting if the whole AI
40:00bubble turns out to be a scam. But
40:02despite all these facts, someone made a
40:05Tik Tok telling people to invest all
40:07their money in AI tech stocks as soon as
40:10possible. And someone said that's like
40:12asking everyone to invest in new houses
40:14in 2007.
40:16>> But [music] our equivalent to that is
40:18literally investing in the stock market
40:20with what's going on with AI and tech.
40:23[music]
40:25>> Holy crap, guys. Buy as many houses as
40:29you can right now. It is so easy to get
40:32a loan and you will make your money
40:34back.
40:34>> Someone added, "It's like in 2016 asking
40:36someone to put all their money in a
40:38fidget spinner company." Oh my gosh,
40:40some of you watching our Gen Alpha,
40:41you'll be too young for fidget spinners.
40:43Oh, it was a safer, simpler time. And
40:45this is not to mention how expensive it
40:47is for AI to use so much water. This
40:49video went viral on Tik Tok about how
40:51much water AI uses. And see if there's
40:53something you notice about it.
40:54>> Ever wonder why AI uses so much water?
40:56Because every time [music] you ask AI
40:57questions somewhere on Earth, water is
40:59helping cool the computers, creating the
41:00answer. That sounds impossible, but the
41:02real work isn't happening [music] on
41:03your screen. It's happening inside
41:05massive data centers packed with
41:06thousands of pounds of computer chips.
41:07As those [music] should process
41:08information, they consume electricity.
41:10And almost all of that electricity turns
41:12into heat, enough heat to [music] damage
41:14equipment and shut entire systems down.
41:16Giant sample air through endless rows of
41:18servers. Meanwhile, pumps water through
41:19cooling [music] systems that carry heat
41:21away. And modern AI trip relentlessly.
41:23Millions of calculations through them
41:25every second. Tiny [music] electronic
41:27switches flip on and off so rapidly that
41:29huge amounts of heat build up inside
41:30space is smaller than a finger nail.
41:32Cooling systems absorb that [music] heat
41:33and often release it through
41:35evaporation. That's where the water
41:36disappears. Not because [music] AI is
41:39turkey because water is one of the most
41:40effective ways to stop a computer from
41:43overheating.
41:48>> That video got millions of VIEWS AND
41:51IT'S AI. FOR EXAMPLE, a video someone
41:54said they used an entire lake to make
41:56this video, by the way. Right message,
41:58wrong messenger. And I'm not even
42:00including the scenario that AI disobys
42:02its human overlords and goes rogue
42:04because an AI model just did that. An AI
42:07model disobeyed its instructions and
42:09escaped onto the internet.
42:12[music]
42:20Someone said, "The [ __ ] you mean escape
42:23to the internet?" How the [ __ ] do you
42:25lose an AI? So, if you're invested in AI
42:27stocks, which you probably are if you
42:29have any kind of index fund, there are
42:31two important things for you to know.
42:33The first is make sure you don't have
42:34all your joies in one pouch. Don't let
42:37an AI crash take down your entire life
42:39savings. That doesn't mean you should
42:40get rid of any AI exposure, which is
42:42tough anyway if you're in index funds.
42:44It just means you should be mindful of
42:46the risks you're taking. If you don't
42:47know about investing, then you should be
42:49broadly diversified. The second
42:50important warning is if you're
42:52leveraged, if you're invested on a loan,
42:54a 2x, 3x, or 4x loan right now, a 25%
42:58crash could wipe out your entire net
43:00worth. Ask yourself if that's a risk
43:02you're willing to take on, especially if
43:04you've already gotten such good returns
43:05from this bull market. If you're
43:07overleveraged, you might want to lock in
43:08some of your gains. Now, these are the
43:10two questions that 1.2 2 million people
43:12in South Korea wish they asked
43:14themselves just one week ago. Warren
43:17Buffett's company Bergkshire Hathaway
43:19has never had more cash on hand, meaning
43:21not being invested in the stock market
43:22in their entire company's history than
43:24today. We're starting to see signs of
43:26the AI bubble everywhere. To paraphrase
43:28Ernest Hemingway, the AI bubble will
43:30come on like bankruptcy. It'll happen at
43:32first slowly and then all at once. And
43:35the last thing I'll say is this is
43:37amazing. Even after the Titanic hit the
43:40iceberg, the captain publicly declared,
43:42"The Titanic cannot sink." And think
43:45about it, the moment after the boat hit
43:47the iceberg, it looked fine. Maybe they
43:49could navigate around it, but the
43:51handwriting on the wall had already been
43:52written. A lot of these companies want
43:54to save face and not let you know how
43:56bad the sausage is being made. Be
43:57careful. I still always advise people to
43:59be invested in the stock market if they
44:01can, but don't do it in the dark. Do you
44:03want the AI bubble to burst? Do you
44:04think it'll burst even sooner than we
44:06think? I'll respond to as many comments
44:08as I can. This video was actually
44:09suggested on my discord. So, thanks to
44:11cat stuffs for the suggestion. And now,
44:13thank you to our amazing patrons guy
44:20Michael J, Kelly, Dylan, Brett, Arie, VG
44:22Guy, Bon, Doge, Lanny, Dang, Job, Angel,
44:25Rachel, Kiana, Ariel, Viper, and welcome
44:27to our newest patrons, Akufo, and
44:30Alexander the Great. The Great. How
44:32great is that? I'll head over to Patreon
44:35now. Thanks for watching.

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