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The $900 Trillion Trigger That Sends Bitcoin to $1M | Jordi Visser — Transcript

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0:00We know the fiat system is a Ponzi
0:01scheme. We know there's about 120
0:03trillion of physical hard currency in
0:05the world that supports 900 trillion in
0:07assets. That is a levered Ponzi scheme.
0:09How do we [music] stop assets from
0:11falling? If all of a sudden the 900
0:12trillion tries to come and get liquid,
0:15what do the central [music] banks have
0:16to do? They have to come in and print
0:17money. And what is money? Well, that's
0:18M2. We're about to unleash the 900
0:19trillion in liquid form. That's what
0:21tokenization is. The Ponzi scheme then
0:22ends. [music] So, whenever I hear people
0:24in crypto talk about the liquidity
0:25cycle, that is a myth. That is when
0:26you're in the speculative phase.
0:28Tokenization is the key thing. There is
0:30nothing more important to Bitcoin and to
0:32[music] the programmables.
0:38Yeah. No, another So I I'm not sure if
0:41you saw the Satrini post this morning,
0:42but it was somebody using Muse and they
0:46were on a Delta flight that got
0:47cancelled on the tarmac and he
0:49immediately went rebook this flight and
0:50on top of that go find how I can get
0:53reimbured for this flight that just got
0:55cancelled within minutes. He had a $250
0:57credit and the satrin post was like
0:59number one you're insane to think that
1:01this is a bubble and this is going
1:03nowhere. Maybe there are bubbly parts
1:05but there is true utility here. Uh to
1:07say there's no use case
1:09>> is completely asinine. Then number two
1:12like all those pennies that consumers
1:15have left on the ground with that like
1:16$250 credit they're about to get picked
1:18up by the agents and airlines being a
1:20perfect example. what happens when
1:22people start efficiently using their
1:24miles and taking advantage of the
1:26refunds they can get.
1:28>> This is the beginning of the
1:29deflationary pressure on everything that
1:32we've talked about. Um you know that
1:34we've as people realize that AI is
1:36deflationary to get deflationary for the
1:39service side you need AI agents because
1:41the agents make decisions based on
1:44efficiency and the use of it is just I
1:47mean that description of what Catrina
1:49did. You have to think about all the
1:50frustrating times you've had waiting to
1:53then rebook something. You get in a line
1:55when you get off the plane and how long
1:56the line is and everyone's trying to get
1:58on one and then you're trying to get a
2:00refund and you're trying to rebook
2:01things. All of this stuff will be
2:02handled. The frustrating part will be
2:04handled by agents and that's already
2:06happening and it's happening now. So
2:08whether it's Metamuse or whether it's
2:10Instinct AI, there's a reason why these
2:13things are having an impact now on the
2:14market.
2:15>> Yeah. Well, like I was telling you, I
2:17took Muse for a spin this morning just
2:18to check it out. Try to book Amtrak.
2:20Amtrak's a bot. No. But point being,
2:24it feels like the first like like I said
2:26it to my wife after playing with it for
2:2810 minutes. So, it's like, okay, this is
2:30I don't have to set up a Hermes agent
2:31for you. Like, this is this is the the
2:33agent that you can use to coordinate our
2:36calendars, the boys sports schedule, all
2:38that. Like, download it and [snorts]
2:40>> play with it today.
2:42That's the reason why this has now
2:44entered a realm for me of time. Um,
2:50any speaking engagement I'm doing now,
2:53it all gets back to time. Um,
2:58you have to think about OpenClaw, which
3:00is a February thing in terms of like
3:02adoption. Then you get into Hermes. Then
3:06you get into Grockbot. Then you get into
3:09well Astron Claude can already do this
3:11and we're going to make it easier and
3:12we're going to embed all this into one.
3:14So if you used Grockbot, it's a
3:17completely different situation. You're
3:19using multiple agents to kind of run
3:21around and do tasks for you. So it's
3:22more like an autonomous workforce.
3:26with Muse and with with Instinct AI and
3:30a lot of the other private ones. Now
3:32you're getting into the what we expected
3:34from Siri and what we expected from
3:36Alexa. But again, it's the fact that
3:38we're talking about something that is
3:40now 7 months. So what has happened is
3:43the accept the compression of time is
3:46happening through the model releases and
3:48through the advancements. The Navier
3:50Stokes problem, the agent swarm fears
3:53over you know hackings. These are all
3:55indications that were, you know, as I
3:57say repeatedly now, page 71 of
3:59situational awareness with Leopold shows
4:02where everything starts to speed up so
4:04fast that humans can't comprehend the
4:05change and they can't keep up with it.
4:07Well, if we can't keep up with it and
4:10we're starting to get into the
4:11transaction phase, the Swift system and
4:14everything that was built for humans
4:16will not work with the agents and
4:18they're going to start the demanding
4:20faster rails.
4:21>> Yeah. No, it was this morning. I again
4:25the the the problem with Amtrak. You you
4:27were describing as a monopoly. It will
4:29move. But the airlines have moved, but
4:30imagine when I can load it up with a
4:33Bitcoin wallet. Like you're going into
4:35your Bucks, you have Bitcoiners, you
4:36have the programmable money, then you
4:38have the incumbents. I'm a Bitcoiner. Uh
4:40and the beauty about the programmable
4:43part is like if I want to use Bitcoin as
4:44my currency, the native digital
4:45currency, and I don't want to touch
4:46anything else, I can just give the agent
4:48a Bitcoin wallet. It's like, "All right,
4:49go figure out how to convert to the
4:51preferred currency of the service
4:53provider or the other agent you're
4:54buying something from." And
4:56>> I can see that's where things are going.
4:58And like I was saying, we're at the
5:01first stage where the incumbents have to
5:02realize this and begin rearchitecting
5:04the infrastructure on the digital side
5:07they have to enable this because once
5:08they do, uh, they're going to get a ton
5:12ton more business, I think.
5:14>> Yeah. And [snorts]
5:16again, I I think for people who don't
5:18see this, and trust me, someone who when
5:20I speak about these things, I'll
5:22occasionally go see the uh the the
5:26comments and the posts and people don't
5:28connect the agentic side to let's say
5:30the crypto guardrails and then kind of
5:32the impact it will have on business. And
5:34it's surprising to me, but again,
5:37because I live in it 24 hours a day,
5:39meaning I'm monitoring how things are
5:41moving and I'm using the tools and yeah,
5:43oh, Muse is a thing. let me go sign up
5:44for it. Okay, Instinct AI, I talk about
5:46it one week. The amount of people
5:48reached out and again when Metam Muse is
5:50the number one downloaded app,
5:53>> okay, and the numbers are big. You start
5:55realizing, oh my god, the people who
5:59aren't paying attention to this, there's
6:02a million people that have already
6:03downloaded it. So, it's like this is
6:05going to grow incredibly rapidly,
6:07especially when you realize how much
6:08time it can save you. The money part
6:11will come second. And that's the thing I
6:13keep trying to make sure people
6:14understand. The money thing will come
6:16second. But this is where you have to
6:19start realizing, okay, how is crypto
6:22directly connected
6:25to agents and that's where you have to
6:27go back. And that's why the stuff I'm
6:28talking about now is it was always made
6:31for digital agents because they're the
6:33only ones that can utilize the speed and
6:35they're the only ones who truly care
6:37about why are we using Visa and
6:38Mastercard? Why are we doing any of this
6:40stuff? Why aren't we just going straight
6:41here, here, here? Let me negotiate. Let
6:43me go through it. They have the time to
6:45do it and it's going to be agent to
6:47agent. The next thing people have to
6:48think about is how important
6:49cryptography is in this. How important
6:51your identity is in this. The ecosystem
6:53starts to grow rapidly once the agents
6:56start transacting because then all the
6:57things that have ever been written about
6:59and talked about become more important
7:01because the ecosystem starts to grow in
7:03terms of volume and velocity and the
7:05size of the ecosystem is going to grow
7:07rapidly over the next 12 months.
7:09>> Yeah. Digging into agents specifically
7:12[clears throat]
7:12and how unprepared people are. I don't
7:16think if most 99.5% of people on the
7:20planet don't understand that they hear
7:22AI they think chat GBT like okay
7:26[clears throat]
7:26what's the usage looking like when they
7:28think of usage it's like okay
7:29downloading Muse talking with Muse uh
7:32using tokens to do that they don't
7:34realize that the agentto agent token
7:36usage has gone exponential and far
7:38exceeds the the human to LLM token usage
7:42and that that fact alone I think
7:44highlights
7:46the sort of arbitrage that exists in the
7:49market. The fact that most people don't
7:50understand that fact uh is extremely
7:53powerful. It gets to something you've
7:55been talking about for for many weeks
7:57now, which is that we're climbing this
7:59wall where you have a ton of the the the
8:02layman, the public out there thinking
8:04that this is a bubble that's going to uh
8:06pop eventually and they think we're
8:08going into like a massive economic
8:11crisis driven by this. But if you look
8:12at the underlying usage, particularly
8:14agent to agent, it seems that the
8:17fundamentals are going not only in the
8:18right direction but far exceeding what
8:20anybody thought up to this point.
8:23Thi this is um
8:27for anyone listening who falls into the
8:29the camp of a worrier on AI which is the
8:33majority of people
8:35um
8:37getting an expected value of an
8:38investment is about lining up all of the
8:41probabilities outcomes and the upside
8:44and downside of all of them. So is there
8:46a bubble aspect? Of course you could
8:48come up with a bunch of reasons. I I
8:50mean I to me they're all tail risks of
8:54things but you're not going to stop the
8:56progress on AI. You can't we're not
8:58going to pause it. Like that was stupid.
9:00Like some everyone's waiting just the
9:03reaction to the pause in AI from the
9:05most sophisticated investors in the
9:06world and I get emails that day. Well
9:10this is we're going to be down big on
9:11Monday. I'm like there'll be a knee-jerk
9:13reaction and it'll be an opportunity to
9:14buy. And here we are whatever many days
9:16later we're way through those levels.
9:18meaning we're way above where it was
9:20before that news came out. So for
9:22everyone listening who's worried, the
9:25expected value, if you break it into a
9:27binomial situation, let's assume you use
9:30what I did in my video, there's a 90%
9:32chance we're headed towards abundance
9:35and there's a 10% chance that we're
9:38going to blow up and AI will never
9:40amount to anything. Okay, in one
9:42scenario you have a zero, 10% chance of
9:44a zero. And on the other side, you have
9:46a 90% chance of something just
9:50shockingly good. The expected value is
9:53shockingly good then in terms of the
9:54combination of the two. Now you can come
9:56up with all the different scenarios you
9:57want in between. But the reality is if
10:00you're worried about the 10%, if you're
10:02waiting for that story, the debt is too
10:04big, this and that, I can refute all of
10:07it. But the only thing you have to make
10:09sure that you realize every day that the
10:12process gets bigger. Consumer agents are
10:14different than enterprise agents. We
10:16haven't even completed the enterprise
10:18adoption yet and we're already moving on
10:19to the consumer agent side. Consumer
10:22agents are very different than
10:23enterprise. Enterprise is about
10:25replacing digital employee or human
10:28employees and it's through coding. It's
10:30through APIs and going into, you know,
10:33using up the amount of compute to figure
10:35things out. For consumer agents, now
10:38you're talking about them working 24/7
10:40to book you a trip to look into this to
10:42go through all of the permutations. The
10:44amount of websites they have to touch.
10:46It's continuous. So consumer agents on
10:49top of enterprise agents means the
10:51compute needs just keep growing. So
10:53again, it gets back to the simple thing.
10:55All bubbles are about supply being in
10:59front of demand for the crypto doubters.
11:03We built the guard rails.
11:05It's an empty city. As I say, it's a
11:07ghost city. We we built the
11:08infrastructure. We've been waiting for
11:10the users to come. Well, the users are
11:11coming in the form of agents. And if
11:13people want to watch one video for the
11:15rest of the month
11:17to hear from someone who can take you
11:20through what's happening at the company
11:22level and how the ROIC is already
11:26happening in various forms, not in the
11:28way you want it, which is when are we
11:29going to see the revenues coming in? Oh,
11:31look, Anthropic and OpenAI only have X
11:33and the hyperscalers only have no John
11:36Gray from Blackstone gave a talk
11:37yesterday to his at his event for 30
11:41minutes. It's on YouTube and he
11:43literally went through the five
11:45different ways that his companies of
11:47which he in is you know has private how
11:51they're all benefit from AI in five
11:53different ways to increase their
11:55profitability which is seeing their
11:57margins grow and he's taking you through
11:59those scenarios. I just don't think
12:00people have really really thought
12:02thought hard enough about the fact that
12:04there's a higher probability of a good
12:05outcome than a bad outcome.
12:07>> And on the enterprise side it'll be
12:09interesting to see how that plays out. I
12:11think we had a a pretty big signal from
12:15the enterprise. It was last week or the
12:17week before with Laam and Watkins um
12:20deciding to buy Nvidia GPUs self-host
12:24and
12:25basically ensure that their IP isn't
12:27being leaked to Anthropic in OpenAI. And
12:29I don't know exactly how lethan is
12:33implementing it, but I imagine what
12:34they're doing is uploading the the
12:37knowledge base of that firm over the
12:39course of decades. So like every case,
12:40every outcome, every bit of research
12:43they've done that they have stored
12:44somewhere
12:45>> in a file system. Just when you're
12:47talking about enterprise adoption,
12:48that's I think first before you even get
12:50into agents, it's like, okay, how do I
12:52imbue this institutional knowledge that
12:54we've built up over over decades into
12:57this system so that the AI can basically
12:59use that to go achieve our goals and
13:01that alone is a massive undertaking.
13:05>> So the question I have is why did it
13:06take him so long? Um, I've talked about
13:09Eli Liy. Eli Liy did this a long time
13:12ago. Um, I think their initial data
13:15center, privateowned data center with a
13:18thousand GPUs. I think it's a thousand
13:20GPUs went up in January. I believe it's
13:23called Lily Pod. Um they have toune lab
13:28which is a way for them brilliantly to
13:30collect other data combine it with their
13:34data on an anonymous basis but it helps
13:39them on learn from their data while
13:41giving biotech companies the ability of
13:43testing their data on their data on on
13:46Eli Lilly's data. So if you have a a
13:50science lab that has all of these
13:51experiments, the pros and cons that come
13:53and where everything was going and
13:55you're just putting in there and seeing
13:57what the output comes in, you have to
13:59think about how quickly the Navier
14:01Stokes thing means that we're getting to
14:03this. So for a law firm to do it, I
14:06guess the reason it took so long is
14:08because they didn't have the money that
14:09Eli Liy did and they didn't have the
14:12understanding from being a Fortune 500
14:14company. And this is why I think there's
14:16been two levels so far uh that have been
14:19accelerating. One is the Fortune 500
14:21companies that have the money or
14:22adopting very quickly because they can
14:24just write the check and start going
14:25through it. But they also have tons of
14:27tech uh engineers that are high level. I
14:31don't know if a law firm has that. So
14:33they have to probably go through a
14:34consultant that comes in and says what
14:36they can do and then they decide to do
14:38it. If they have the money, they make
14:39the investment. They see the benefits.
14:41The other side that already is doing
14:42outside of Fortune 500 companies are AI
14:44native entrepreneurs. They're the ones
14:46that have the ability of using open-
14:48source and not needing to worry about if
14:51their data is being used because it's a
14:53tiny little private company that's not
14:55trying to it doesn't have things to
14:57protect. It actually needs to grow and
14:59the only thing they care about is going
15:01from zero today to a billion revenue in
15:03in two years and before they could even
15:05be competed, they'll probably be
15:06monetized and move on to the next thing.
15:08>> Yeah. No, I think of [snorts] how we
15:11implemented at TFTC. Everything we we're
15:14feeding the model is public anyway. So,
15:16I don't care if OpenAI or Anthropic sees
15:19it. But to your point, it is insane.
15:21Like I was I was uh demoing it last
15:24night at the at the open party here at
15:26Pub Key for this Freedom Tech Week and
15:28uh I b I had my Hermes agents connected
15:31to our company Brain and I was like,
15:32"Hey, use the fountain MCP fountains
15:35where we host our podcast uh for RSS and
15:38has video." I was like, "Hey, John R and
15:40I from 10:31 recorded a video this
15:42morning. We talked about oil markets
15:44particularly and what people aren't
15:45seeing like Venezuela imports are going
15:47up. Uh, it looks like ships are making
15:50it through the straight at 60%. Go clip
15:53that and then pull out the juiciest sort
15:56of quote of that and then a one sentence
15:58summary of the clip in its entirety
16:00posted on my ex within 10 minutes. I
16:02didn't even look at X. It was it was
16:04posted."
16:05to talk about efficiency. That would
16:07have taken probably 2 hours for somebody
16:09on our team to to go
16:12>> find it, uh, clip it, get the tweet, get
16:15the subtitles. And I mean, that utility
16:19is
16:21very misunderstood right now for most
16:23people. And this is just a podcast
16:26clipping.
16:27>> Yeah. And again, and for for you guys,
16:31um, the IP is the using it. Um the AI
16:36models, they just keep getting better
16:38and better. The capabilities get better
16:39and better. And if you're involved in
16:42them every day, you know to ask, can I
16:44do this? For people that don't use it
16:47often, they'll see something in X or
16:50they'll someone will tell them about
16:51something and then they'll go in and
16:53they'll look at it. Then if you're not
16:55using it every day and knowing that it's
16:58getting better every single day and
16:59you're too worried about hallucinations
17:01and stuff like that, then you're not
17:02going to use it. If you don't use it,
17:04you're screwed. Like that's [snorts] the
17:06plain simple thing. I think the value ad
17:08for people is not understanding the
17:11things that AI can do out there. It's
17:13the ability of just asking the question,
17:15what can you do today that you couldn't
17:16do yesterday? And the more that you use
17:19it for those things, you start going I
17:21you've watched my my Sunday video for a
17:23long time. I don't know if you noticed,
17:26but um I was using a a software OpenB
17:29for a long time and then all of a sudden
17:32OpenB
17:34you know unfortunately startup business
17:36they closed down and I know the founder
17:39and it was a sad day. I I really like
17:41the guy and I was using the software
17:43because at the beginning when I started
17:46to do my video which was in 2024 the AI
17:48capabilities could not really deal with
17:50it that well and he kept making
17:53additions to it so that I could use it.
17:55So from my side it was it'll help him
17:57and his business by me using it as a
17:59product showing charts in it and things
18:02like that.
18:04But I had to make a switch during the
18:06summertime and this was like on a
18:07Wednesday and I put this stuff together
18:09with inside OpenB. So I had to make a
18:11complete pivot. So now I'm in a in a
18:14bind. So I go to
18:17OpenAI and I ask the question. I asked
18:19chat GPT, here's what I've been using.
18:22Here's a sample of the video. Here's the
18:24way I put it together. I need you to
18:26reddo my process so that I can have a
18:28video done by the recording on Friday.
18:31That's two days for me to have to
18:33complete a completely new process to do
18:35something that takes a while. Um,
18:40it took me through to use Google Slides.
18:43It now I had never used Google Slides in
18:45like a big way. I had only used it,
18:48let's say, five times in my life, but
18:50it's told me it was the best way to do
18:52this for a variety of reasons that
18:53match, which in in hindsight was
18:55completely true.
18:57My process has now been reduced by 70%.
19:01>> Holy crap.
19:02>> Which is amazing because that means I
19:04could put the entire thing together, do
19:06the video on one in 4 hours is now my
19:09guess. And that is the thing that's
19:11happened is it's changed. It cla because
19:15I had this whole database now of OpenB
19:17slides. I connected to that folder
19:20knowing that it was going. I uploaded
19:21everything from OpenB. And now [snorts]
19:23when I need to find a slide that I've
19:24used in the past, I just go into co-work
19:26and go, can you find this slide on
19:27consumer agents and enterprise agents,
19:29which I did literally this morning? And
19:31it gives me the image like this kind of
19:34stuff you couldn't do 6 months ago. And
19:37so by asking the question when a when a
19:40problem comes up, how do I solve this?
19:42As opposed to panicking and then like
19:44what am I going to do and try to learn
19:46on your own,
19:48you have to have the instinct to just
19:49know that AI has the solution always.
19:52And so bringing this back to time,
19:55how much time do people have to to get
19:57on this train? And then tying it to the
19:59wall of worry, too. How fast? I mean,
20:01you you said it's happening faster than
20:03we expected, but and humans can't
20:05understand exponentials. What what do
20:08you think the next year looks like? And
20:10what are the opportunity cost if you
20:11don't move? So, let's let's break this
20:15down by what people care about each day.
20:18Um, so number one, their job. I'm I'll
20:21leave health aside for a second because
20:23I don't think that has to do with this
20:25unless you want to go use it. But for
20:28your job, I don't think you have any
20:29more time. Um I think every company now
20:32realizes that they have to use AI agents
20:34and they can they can the law firm can
20:39pay for that.
20:41Maybe let's assume they had a certain
20:43amount of cash in the partnership
20:45and the partner sat around and I don't
20:47know what happened but I'm just saying
20:49if I was at the place, this is what I
20:51do. I'd sit around and we go, how much
20:53money do we have to buy all these GPUs
20:54and set this up? Um, if we make an
20:57investment based on the cash that we
20:58have plus what's coming over the next
21:00year, what is that going to do from a
21:02capex perspective? And since it's not a
21:04public company, they don't have share.
21:06It's their partnership. They have to
21:07make the decision. So they go, this is a
21:08good investment. How are we going to pay
21:10for it? You don't think they're going to
21:11pay for it with human beings? Like
21:14literally the compensation they have and
21:16maybe it's not from firing people, but
21:18maybe it's not hiring people over the
21:19next 5 years cuz they won't need them.
21:21Maybe it's combination of both. You have
21:24to understand that with agents comes
21:27competition for human employees. So, if
21:30you don't want to be one of the people
21:33that's let go, if you want to empower
21:36yourself to go build your own business
21:37to compete with that firm because you
21:40don't have the issue they have, you can
21:42actually just use the public thing and
21:43grow your business and be a a lawyer.
21:45You have your your law degree. Just go
21:46be a lawyer and serve me, Jordy. I need
21:49I always need a lawyer to help me with
21:50my business. Um, empower yourself to
21:53feel that you can be an entrepreneur and
21:55you can compete with them before they
21:57get rid of you. And the way to do that
21:59is to use it. So I I think within the
22:01next year, if you haven't done the usage
22:03side, the agency side, the empowerment
22:04side, I think you're in trouble from the
22:06investment side and the financial side,
22:07which is the other thing I try to focus
22:09on,
22:11you have to understand that if
22:12[clears throat] you're worried about AI,
22:15you're probably also one of the ones not
22:17using it. There's a high correlation
22:19between, I'm worried about this being a
22:21bubble, it's going to hurt my investment
22:22portfolio, and I'm not using it because
22:24I don't believe in it. That is the
22:26denial that people have. And I think on
22:28the investment side, you're losing money
22:30every day. The stock market, not
22:32investing in it, I don't know what
22:33you're doing with your money. I You
22:34think it's a bubble, you're reducing it.
22:36You've got it safe. You can make more
22:38money investing in the things that
22:40represent what it's going to look like.
22:41The infrastructure buildout is going to
22:43continue. We need compute. It's the
22:45reason why like I focus people on that
22:47side. Crypto. Do your homework now on
22:49crypto. I view this as the beginning of
22:52an epic move in [snorts] crypto because
22:54the guardrails
22:56are valued at zero. And I hate to say
22:59that to everyone, but the people
23:01supplying the guard rails are valued at
23:04zero. And the reason I know that is
23:06because if you take Ethereum and Bitcoin
23:08out of the crypto market cap, you're not
23:10left with a lot. It's less than micron.
23:13It's less like that is the
23:14infrastructure side. Now, I do believe
23:16that Ethereum fits the ecosystem, but
23:18not in this speculative phase where we
23:20need the apps being built on top of
23:22Ethereum. And so, all of these layer 2s,
23:24the the sum of them is going to go up in
23:26value because the velocity and the GDP,
23:29the velocity and the volume of
23:31transactions is going to go through the
23:32roof. So, if everything that I just said
23:35on the work side, you don't use it,
23:36you're in trouble. on the investment
23:38side. If you don't understand or believe
23:39in crypto at this point, so you don't
23:41believe in AI or crypto, that's a very
23:44dangerous place to be, folks.
23:46>> And a lot of people are in that
23:47position.
23:47>> Yeah. Mo most are. That's the scary
23:49thing. Most are.
23:50>> Yeah. And it's uh so let's let's walk
23:53through how the order of operations of
23:55how you see this agentic economy getting
23:58imbued with agency to a higher degree
24:03with digital money and smart contracts,
24:07whatever it may be. because that's uh
24:09that's one thing I've been asking myself
24:11because you mentioned crypto and you
24:13have a bunch of different tokens and
24:15each of them have a a market cap and
24:22will that's the question like will
24:23stable coins win out I fall in the
24:25Bitcoiner camp so I'm a believer that at
24:28the end of the day if you're an agent or
24:30human you're going to want the the most
24:33salailable
24:34currency with the biggest market cap
24:37with the the best money in the digital
24:39economy. So, I think that's Bitcoin. To
24:41your point about L2s,
24:43uh, and things like that, it's pretty
24:45clear out of the gate, stable coins are
24:47winning the the agentic commerce stuff
24:49in the in the very very early days. But
24:51I wonder, again, going back to what I
24:52was saying earlier, do agents prefer
24:55Bitcoin? Um, and does the Bitcoin stack
25:00have the necessary infrastructure to
25:02facilitate everything that agents are
25:05going to want to do, particularly on the
25:06payment side?
25:07>> There's no way. So, um, and again, I I'm
25:10I'm a I have a very unique position on
25:13this. This is why I love watching the
25:16fight between the Bitcoiners and the
25:17programmables. And I want them to try to
25:19bucket me cuz I'm a
25:23in the long run
25:26a Bitcoin maxi.
25:28But the path to that point and what I
25:31mean by that is in the end there is only
25:35one thing left that I can say with
25:38certainty will not be have their growth
25:42disrupted. So at the end of the day, all
25:45tokens going up in value, anything you
25:47can buy as an individual investor is
25:49about growth. Everything there are a lot
25:52of assumptions that come with growth.
25:55One of them is comp I mean the main one
25:57is how quickly will competition come in
26:00to destroy my growth.
26:02In a world where AI allows things to be
26:04instantly replicated,
26:08that time goes to zero. So, if you agree
26:11with me that any innovation has a
26:14lifespan that is far shorter than it
26:16used to be, it's all Jev, you're you're
26:19you're in a very difficult position
26:21because the innovator's dilemma is,
26:24okay, I want to create something. This
26:25is a great idea. Let me create it. Let
26:26me hope that there's not 8,000 other
26:28people doing the same idea at the same
26:31time because we all know then there's
26:32not a lot of growth. It's all about
26:34competition. And my belief is that with
26:36billions of entrepreneurs and trillions
26:38of agents all working together over the
26:41course of the next decade that we will
26:43get to creative destruction Joseph
26:46Shumper style that is instantaneous. So
26:48at the end of the day things will grow
26:50but who wins in that case? The
26:52entrepreneur wins if they create
26:54something and they have a community and
26:55that token goes from 100 to a thousand
26:59then it's still a thousand for the rest
27:00of time. Well, it's kind of like Ford
27:04stock. So, if everything hits that
27:06point, why did Ford stock stop growing?
27:08Because of competition eventually. Um,
27:11there was a better way to make cars as
27:12we found out from Tesla and other
27:14things. So, if you go from 10 to a,000
27:18[clears throat] and it takes one year,
27:19but it never grows again. Who wins?
27:22Only the entrepreneur in the community.
27:24That's it. And and again, that's all
27:26that happened for that period of time.
27:28But then it stops growing. And then what
27:29does everyone go? Well, I got to go find
27:31something else to invest in. And this
27:33just keeps happening and happening and
27:34happening. Bitcoin to me is the place
27:37when that investment stops growing and
27:38you have to go find the next investment.
27:41Money goes there. If you've invested in
27:44something, you're worried because it
27:45could go down in value, too. They might,
27:46everyone might leave and then all of a
27:47sudden it goes down. Where does your
27:49money go? Well, your money goes to
27:51something safer. That's what happens in
27:53the S&P 500. People invest in companies.
27:56All people do. But if you ask them where
27:59most of their money is, it's not 90% is
28:01in Tesla, unless they work for the
28:02company and they don't have a choice and
28:04they're owning this. Most of their value
28:06is in moving it into a combination of
28:086040 and all these different things.
28:10Well, that is Bitcoin to me. A store of
28:12value is the diversification you have in
28:14your life. It's your real estate, it's
28:16your bonds, it's your stocks, it's your
28:17private credits. All these things that
28:18the wealth managers put into a decade
28:21from now, Bitcoin will be the only thing
28:22left. So that's the first thing I want
28:24to say is I I I do believe in that in
28:26terms of the the L2s. I'm focused on two
28:29things right now and I'll give two
28:32companies that are straddling the the
28:34the Trafi world and the crypto world
28:39so that everyone can just take these two
28:41companies and do their research. Stripe
28:43and Robin Hood, those are the two that
28:45matter. Stripe from a stable coin basis.
28:47They're a transactionbased company. Um,
28:49if you go through their stack of
28:51companies that they've invested in,
28:52starting with Bridge
28:54and going through to the end now with
28:56Open Router,
28:59pretty straightforward. Like they're set
29:01up for the Aentic side, they're set up
29:03for the stablecoin side. And this was a
29:04company that honestly was not a believer
29:07in crypto when you really go back. They
29:09didn't have a focus on it until the
29:11bridge
29:12>> Mhm.
29:12>> M&A deal. And I think that closed in
29:15February of 2025. I think we heard about
29:17it in October of 2024.
29:19That's a big admission that stable coins
29:22are going to be a big part of the
29:23transaction side and they're a company
29:24that's straddling both worlds
29:26>> and the premium they paid for they they
29:27yeah valued bridge of what a billion
29:29dollars on 10 million in revenue.
29:30>> Yep. But so you had to imagine
29:33internally they had an aha moment like
29:35okay we're going to overpay for this
29:36>> on both sides the bridge I mean to have
29:39a deal that comes that high bridge had
29:41no revenues they had I think the company
29:43had been around for less than two years
29:46>> so when you go through the details of it
29:48and you're like they they negotiated a
29:52great deal cuz they believed in it
29:54stripe believed in it you end up with
29:57open router at this point like why is
29:59stripe getting involved in open router
30:00why were trying to buy PayPal. Like
30:02think about all the things they're going
30:04through the entire stack of how stable
30:05coins fit into this and that's the
30:08agentic side. So that's one side and
30:10then the Robin Hood side is tokenization
30:12and tokenization is huge. It has huge
30:15implications. There is nothing more
30:17important to Bitcoin and to the
30:19programmables. So the Bitcoiners and the
30:21programmables need to just understand
30:23tokenization is the key thing because
30:26tokenization unleashes the $900 trillion
30:30in two ways.
30:32I wrote a paper this week.
30:35You you will not have seen it but this
30:37weekend I'll I'll I'll go through it. Um
30:42it's really a call out to economists. So
30:44for everyone who thinks they know how
30:46economics run, if I said to everyone,
30:48and this is 99.99% of the people on the
30:50planet, this is my own unique I've never
30:52seen this written anywhere. This is a
30:54new thing. Um,
30:57how do we stop assets from falling? We
31:00know the fiat system is a Ponzi scheme.
31:02We know it's levered. We know there's
31:03about 120 trillion of physical hard
31:07currency in the world that supports 900
31:09trillion in assets. That is a levered
31:12Ponzi scheme. Okay? Meaning if all of a
31:14sudden the 900 trillion tries to come
31:16and get liquid, so they go to sell in
31:19their money to pay off debts, whatever
31:20it is, and we have a version of the
31:22great depression or a mini version of
31:23the great financial crisis or even
31:25COVID, then all the assets fall. And
31:27what do the central banks have to do?
31:29They have to come in and print money.
31:31And what is money? Well, that's M2. Why
31:33do they have to do that? They have to
31:35reliquify. So whenever I hear people in
31:37crypto talk about the liquidity cycle,
31:39I'm always sitting there going, when am
31:40I going to get my chance to explain to
31:41them that that is a myth, that is when
31:44you're in the speculative phase of
31:46crypto. So for everyone out there, it's
31:47like it's the liquidity cycle of which
31:49almost every Bitcoiner is and almost
31:51every person out there, we need this, we
31:53need the ism to go, we need all these
31:54things to happen.
31:56>> The reality is for me, we're about to
31:58unleash the 900 trillion in liquid form.
32:01That's what tokenization is. So what
32:02happens to M2?
32:05The Ponzi scheme then ends because now
32:07you have $900 trillion dollars of assets
32:11that can theoretically buy a coffee. So
32:13nobody needs to sell during these little
32:15mini panics because they already have
32:18cash. The reason they were selling their
32:20assets is cuz they needed cash. Well,
32:22now they can post that money or transact
32:25that money into whatever debt they have.
32:28The world changes overnight because
32:30tokenization increases the M2 in a very
32:33different form. Now, is it as liquid as
32:35Bitcoin? No. But can you transfer at
32:38some price a house instantaneously
32:41into this? Yeah, pretty close. I know
32:44this it's not going to take a lot of
32:45time.
32:46>> So, that's where the tokenization side
32:48has a huge impact. So, what Vlad and
32:50Robin Hood and others, but Vlad in
32:53particular with the Robin Hood chain,
32:56this is all preparation for what's going
32:57to happen with tokenization. So those
32:59are L2s which again increase the 900
33:03trillion to come into Bitcoin. It wasn't
33:07going to happen without the
33:08programmables. So for every Bitcoiner
33:10who thought eventually these incumbents,
33:13as Michael Sailor said, which I agree
33:14with. You don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin
33:17finds you. If you're wealthy, you don't
33:20need Bitcoin. You don't need to believe
33:21in it. And so that money needs to come
33:23over to drive it to a million dollars.
33:25Sorry everyone, but that's what needs to
33:26happen. That's what happened with gold.
33:28Whenever there's a panic, people move
33:29into gold to hide their money. They need
33:31to believe their fiat assets are not
33:33going to work. But that group already
33:34believes in gold. You need them to
33:36believe in this. And this whole we're
33:37going to give the money to our kids and
33:39they're going to do a thing. That's
33:40going to take too long. Especially in
33:41the world I believe in where nobody
33:42dies. You don't want that to be the
33:44thing. You actually want the money to
33:45move over there because of greed. And
33:47that means that the fiat assets become
33:50liquid
33:50>> and everyone goes, "Hey, wait. This
33:52private credit fund I have that I can't
33:53get out of, it's now liquid. It's just
33:55at a 20% discount." Do you know how many
33:57people would sign up right now for their
33:59priv to get their money back in private
34:00credit? How many retail people would
34:03want their money back and say, "I'm
34:05never doing this again. Give it to me."
34:07That's what's going to happen with
34:08tokenization.
34:09>> Yeah. You're just running the calculus.
34:11Okay. If I take a 20% haircut and put it
34:13in Bitcoin, is Bitcoin going to go up?
34:1520%.
34:15>> Yeah.
34:16>> What's up, freaks? This was brought to
34:18you by our good friends, the Bitcoin
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37:01I was
37:03for a while uh like a real world t uh
37:07asset tokenization
37:09bear. never really made sense to me. But
37:11then uh you think of stocks and how
37:15that's all settled through the DTCC and
37:17it's like okay the guardrails
37:20um of these these digital assets uh make
37:24a lot more sense for this. It makes it
37:25way more efficient. And the as we're
37:29going through this discussion, the one
37:30question I have whether it's the
37:32shumpter's creative destruction
37:34happening instantaneously or the ability
37:36to
37:38uh get liquidity for for
37:40>> Before you get off of that, I just want
37:41to make sure that people since you you
37:44didn't see how RWAs would work in this
37:48>> I just want you to use the house
37:50example. Do you own a house?
37:52>> Yes.
37:52>> Okay. So when you buy a house, that
37:56process is painful and it's long.
37:58>> Mhm.
38:00>> Once you have it, if your house goes up
38:02and doubles in value over the next 6
38:04months and you have tremendous equity,
38:07which is where most of the country,
38:08people right now are trapped in their
38:10homes. They're trapped.
38:12>> Why are they trapped? Because they don't
38:14want to have to reset their mortgage at
38:16higher levels. I don't understand how
38:18people don't realize that the speed of
38:20buying a house or selling a house if you
38:22want to sell that house.
38:25What better way to sell it than to open
38:27it up to all 8 billion people on the
38:29planet to buy it? Like I don't that
38:32that's there. Why wouldn't you want to
38:33sell a house and have it sold in a
38:35matter of minutes as opposed to the
38:37process that goes on? And people don't
38:39believe a house can sell in a minute.
38:41Once our digital agents are there and AI
38:43agents do all of the paperwork and
38:45everything there and they have all the
38:46background check and you're identified
38:48based on your credit and your collateral
38:49and it's all liquid, it's all on chain,
38:52everything goes immediate. So that might
38:55take another decade, whatever the case
38:57is. But when you're investing in
38:58something, and I'll use the stupid
39:01comment that Jason Calcanis made on, you
39:03know, deadcat bounce in Bitcoin and this
39:06will never I I literally can't believe
39:08that people don't realize that by the
39:09time you invest in something that is
39:11obvious,
39:13the value has gone up 50 times. [snorts]
39:16>> You can only invest in things when
39:18they're not obvious. What I'm talking
39:20about right now to someone who believes
39:22in crypto but didn't see the value that
39:25tokenization ra would ras would bring.
39:29If one person does it and says I sold my
39:32house in a matter of minutes far higher
39:33price than you did. I had 8 billion bids
39:36on it that will change everyone doing
39:39it. So again it'll speed it up because
39:41money makes people do things. Cost
39:43reduction makes people do things. But
39:45being trapped in your house with owner's
39:47equity right now, not able to get out,
39:49everyone would sign up for RWAS right
39:51now.
39:51>> And so in that example, somebody has to
39:53live in the house. But when you say
39:54that, you're basically just selling an
39:56equity portion or re or getting a
39:58heliloc essentially.
39:59>> Yeah. If you want to still be in there,
40:00you're able to get cash for it by just
40:03>> crazy. And it goes further than that. If
40:05you're a small business that uh is in a
40:08and I have a friend who's in this
40:09situation, so he has a business he
40:12bought in on Long Island. Are you from
40:14No, you're not from Long Island.
40:15>> From Philly.
40:16>> Philly. Yeah. I know you're in Philly.
40:18Giants. I know it was a hard night last.
40:19>> No, no, no. I'm a Jets fan. It was a
40:20hard night on Sunday. [laughter]
40:23>> It's been a hard life. Uh, but I'm done.
40:25Knicks won, so I don't really care. Uh,
40:29Sixers will get there at some point.
40:30This will be the most disappointing year
40:32ever. You have everything coming in. So,
40:33this will be a very disappointing year.
40:35So, let's go back to the equation.
40:36[laughter] My friend owns a beverage
40:38business that he bought a long time ago.
40:41I don't know if you've heard, but kids
40:42don't drink beer. He's not allowed to
40:44sell liquor. It's like a horrible
40:46situation. We were just talking about
40:47it. So, let's assume his business is
40:49bringing in very little cash,
40:52>> but at the same time, he has a value of
40:54real estate that's worth $5 million. So,
40:57his revenues have gone down. He's trying
40:59to make payments cuz he has a belief
41:01that the business is going to grow again
41:03and he's going to be able to sell
41:04something else because he has a license
41:06that starts in a year, but he doesn't
41:07have the money to keep going. So either
41:10he has to go out and borrow money and
41:12the banks are going to be like, "Well,
41:14you don't have any revenues coming in.
41:16Like they're really down. I we can't
41:17invest in this business." Or he could
41:20just quickly go in and go, I just need
41:22money for the next 6 months. So I want
41:24to sell off a piece of the business
41:26token. You know, I want to sell off a
41:28piece of it. He can come back and buy it
41:29in 6 months until the revenue comes in.
41:32So everything happens in a different
41:34form. And again, when you want to go
41:35borrow the money, you have to leave your
41:37your business. this you have to go out
41:39go to the banks you have to go sell them
41:40on this you have to prepare all these
41:42documents you have to go to seven
41:43different banks this is all done via
41:46crypto so to me because it's
41:48programmable and because agents can do
41:50all the work that's where it becomes
41:52aligned without crypto agents can't
41:54replace that function
41:57>> that's the part that becomes important
41:58in this whole thing without agents the
42:01human would not couldn't use the crypto
42:03coordinate
42:04>> exactly so agents change the whole
42:06mechanism Yeah. No, I'm thinking of uh
42:09just pure Bitcoin collateralized loans
42:11as the like the the nation
42:14>> example of this. Like the ability for me
42:15to get a strike, post Bitcoin, get cash,
42:18get to my bank account within
42:20>> literally minutes is incredibly
42:22valuable. So,
42:23>> and and that's the way it'll be is
42:25everything becomes liquid and you go
42:26through. Some things will be more liquid
42:27than other things. In the case of the
42:29real estate, maybe it takes a day to go
42:31through this, but that's better than 60
42:33days. It's better than having a vig on
42:35it to where you got to pay all this
42:36stuff. There's a whole bunch of
42:37different ways where you're monetizing
42:39something that's already worked out.
42:40>> Then you have the agents construct the
42:41strategy for the best like manage
42:44leverage and
42:45>> payback period. Look at your like all
42:47right here's the best solution for you
42:49considering your current state.
42:51>> The the the analogy for everyone to
42:53recognize is Uber can't work without the
42:57smartphone.
42:59Uber can't work without the app store.
43:01You can't carry a laptop around and be
43:04doing like you needed to have the phone.
43:08Agents are the use case for connecting
43:11to humans. So the problem is people
43:13don't think of agents the same way they
43:14think of apps. That's why I, you know,
43:17this concept of L2s is very similar to
43:20the taxi side. Like there were already
43:22taxis. Why do we need Uber? And the
43:25question is everyone should ask why do
43:27we need Uber? Well, initially it was
43:28cheaper, significantly cheaper.
43:30Eventually they merged together and the
43:32cost of Uber went up. Okay. Why did the
43:35cost go up? What happened? Was it
43:36regulation? Was it the business? What?
43:38Whatever the case was,
43:41the agents are the facing side between
43:44the humans and the end transactions that
43:47go on. So whether it's stable coins or
43:49whether it's tokenization, they need
43:51agents to be able to do this cuz humans
43:52were never going to be able to get on in
43:54wallets. That's the thing I think
43:55everyone in crypto underestimated, which
43:58I still say publicly is is is an issue
44:00that can only be solved by agents. It's
44:02not easy to set up all these wallets.
44:04It's not easy to go in there and just
44:06create them. And I guess the side that's
44:08good is I'd rather it be difficult
44:11because it also means there's a lot of
44:13guard rails that are in there to protect
44:14privacy and to make it difficult for
44:16hackings. And the more hackings that
44:18happen, which are happening a lot more,
44:20I think you start pricing out the weaker
44:22wallets and the agents know not to go to
44:24them. So then the agents end up with the
44:26better ones. You have to understand like
44:28the agents are the ones that reduce the
44:30hackings and reduce the vulnerabilities
44:32by knowing which ones have already done
44:34and when they start making the decision,
44:36you start having less problems too.
44:38Yeah, there was a Bit Devs developer
44:40meeting here uh meet up here last night
44:43and that was obviously in Bitcoin. I
44:45think Bitcoin is the the ecosystem has
44:48been the first target of AI uh initiated
44:51hackings. Uh and
44:54>> did they talk a lot about it? Yeah, I
44:56mean it's been because you had uh Rob
44:58Hamilton from Anchorwatch who basically
45:01with a a group of other developers when
45:05the cold card wallet had an entropy bug
45:07that was being exploited by AI
45:10um AI attacks, they said, "Okay, if this
45:13is happening to cold card," which many
45:14people thought, myself included, was the
45:18>> gold standard of of Bitcoin hardware
45:20wallets. Who else can this happen? So
45:22they basically set up a created a
45:24harness to go inspect the code of every
45:27Bitcoin project that they could find a
45:29GitHub for and found hundreds of of
45:32[snorts]
45:32vulnerabilities within within days and
45:36responsibly disclosed to many of the
45:38projects that were patched. Point being
45:39is we're at we're still at the early
45:42stage where humans are fallible. Humans
45:46we're finding out in Bitcoin because
45:47Bitcoin is the first easy target cuz
45:48it's bare asset. if you get it, it's
45:51hard to get back.
45:52>> Um,
45:54and we're hardening the Bitcoin
45:55ecosystem right now because of that. And
45:57many projects did get hacked over the
45:59last six weeks, but many others found
46:02critical vulnerabilities first, patched
46:04them, and the this system overall has
46:07been more robust. We're in this window
46:08where the pain is extremely uh extremely
46:12hard uh extremely painful. But I think a
46:15year from now the ecosystem will be more
46:17robust and secure than than it ever has
46:19been because of this. And it's funny
46:20agents are are doing the work of
46:22inspecting the code bases uh presenting
46:26patches and and helping to secure all
46:28this. But going back
46:31to
46:34rate of destruction, you're going to
46:36have incredible liquidity. You can
46:39tap into a market of 8 billion people to
46:41sell assets whenever. How do you have
46:43stability in this world? Like what does
46:45stability look like uh when all this is
46:48going on? Cuz the way you describe I'm
46:51like, "All right, it sounds awesome, but
46:52it also seems discombobulating."
46:55Um I I think this is the human tendency.
46:58Um, if I asked you when's the last time
46:59things were stable. [laughter]
47:02Um, you know, when they were for
47:04everyone, it was when you were a kid.
47:06And it's cuz you didn't know any better.
47:08Um, you have more to lose when you get
47:10older. You are getting closer to death.
47:12Psychologically, you're on a journey and
47:15you have kids or you're thinking about
47:16having kids. And uh as someone who has
47:20four, I can just tell you
47:24when my first child was born,
47:27uh I went from feeling indestructible
47:31like I I don't care about death and like
47:34I'm not frightened by dying. When I die,
47:37hopefully I've lived a good life. I can
47:39only control what I can. And so I try to
47:41be in shape. I try to eat well. I try to
47:43work out. I try to surround myself with
47:45people who bring me joy. all these
47:46different things that I've learned over
47:48life. But when you have that first
47:50child,
47:51you're vulnerable because now your job
47:53is to protect that child. And it's an
47:55instinct that has clearly been handed
47:57down biologically to where and I
47:59remember feeling it like I drove home
48:01from the hospital and I was all of a
48:02sudden now as someone who never worried
48:04about driving. I was like someone going
48:05to hit me. I got on a plane. I was
48:06worried about the the plane crashing.
48:08Like these instincts start to hit you.
48:11So, I think it's normal for people to
48:13question how change is going to not be
48:17disruptive. Uh, and I don't think humans
48:20can possibly be in a world where they
48:22all agree. I do believe that when you
48:25watch Star Trek and these sci-fi things,
48:27the number one take out of the future is
48:29that we're still fighting wars and we're
48:30still battling for things. We're just
48:33changing on this. I think that's an
48:35animal instinct that goes on in every
48:37single place and people do it for
48:40reasons that we can't. So, it's never
48:41going to be stable, my friend.
48:43[laughter]
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51:08the pace of the the volatility seems be
51:11increasing. And bringing this back to
51:14the beginning um the beginning of the
51:16conversation, we were mentioning the
51:17slowdown. That's one thing I forgot to
51:18bring up, but the administration,
51:22everything we've talked about really is
51:26somewhat dependent on the at least for
51:28Americans, for the US government to be
51:31be on board with this. And it seems like
51:32the Trump administration is on board,
51:35not only with the AI stuff, but crypto
51:37as well. Clarity Act failed, but the
51:39SEC, the CFTC, the OC are rulemaking
51:41anyway. They're not waiting for a bill.
51:43And then on the slowdown news, everybody
51:46was worried like, "Oh gosh,
51:47>> we're going to stop this." And then
51:48Trump comes out with a post like, "No,
51:50we're not selling that. Slowing down,
51:51actually accelerate, lean in, stop being
51:53a pansy." And I think uh love them or
51:57hate them,
51:59I think at this particular juncture for
52:00US history, it's important that this
52:03administration has this this purview and
52:05they're they're enabling this. How
52:07important do you think that is?
52:09I I think it's important, but I don't
52:11think um I think the voters voted for
52:15this. Um I think crypto was a major part
52:18of his win. Uh I don't think it gets
52:22brought up enough as to the the impact
52:25it had on the election, but it did. I
52:27mean, the numbers are there, the stats
52:28are there. You know, crypto packs that
52:31put money into elections had a huge
52:33success. And so I think uh by bringing
52:38in a a Treasury secretary who quotes
52:40Satoshi who's pro Bitcoin to bring in a
52:43Fed chair who's pro Bitcoin um I think
52:47when you go throughout the
52:48administration he tried to create bring
52:50on people that were pro this and
52:53whatever his rationale behind it is I I
52:56didn't get the impression that he had a
52:58vision for it. He just knew that the
53:00people wanted it. He did have a belief
53:03in the distribution of of of wealth as a
53:06major issue in the country and bringing
53:07back manufacturing. Now, if you think
53:10about what's happening, that is what's
53:12happening. Meaning,
53:15we do have a lot of jobs being created
53:17in the construction side. The middle
53:19part of the country is benefiting from
53:20the data centers and from the gas and
53:22from all of the things that go on. I'm a
53:25big believer that entrepreneurs are
53:26going to have a huge impact. If I could
53:29be long something right now which
53:30doesn't exist. I want to be long the 200
53:34million entrepreneurs that are happening
53:36and coming in the country. I want an
53:37index of that. I don't want the S&P 500.
53:39I want this AI native world of
53:42entrepreneurs. I don't want the Russell
53:442000. I don't want any of that stuff. I
53:45don't want public companies. I actually
53:47believe that the growth is coming. Now,
53:50where do I play that? I play that
53:51through crypto and I play it through AI.
53:53So, those are the ways that I play that
53:56situation right now. So rather than get
53:58into um whether the administration got
54:01lucky, whether they made whether they
54:04the voters did it, I think the reality
54:06is that it's happening and they've by by
54:10speeding up the AI side by making it
54:12more tax efficient for the hyperscalers
54:15to take out the debt and be able to
54:17depreciate over a longer time period was
54:19a huge thing. It accelerated AI
54:21development. Crypto is directly
54:23connected to when we got the AI
54:25development. Leopold wrote in
54:27situational awareness which came out
54:29after
54:31No, it came out before Trump was
54:33elected. So it came out during the
54:35election period and only a couple
54:37months. I think it came out June of 24.
54:39Trump spoke at the Bitcoin event in was
54:41it Nashville in July? So it was before
54:43that. If you go back and look at that
54:45point, Leopold thought we would hit the
54:47point we're at now sometime in 2027. The
54:50fact that we hit it in 2026 to me is a
54:52direct correlation with the
54:54administration saying that AI is a
54:57focus, reducing the timeline on things
54:58and basically giving people the rules
55:00that for the next four years you can run
55:02as fast as you want on AI and you have
55:04my blessing. For the crypto crew, it's
55:07the same thing. The Genius Act was
55:09critical. As much as clarity is
55:11important, like you said, you can kind
55:12of get around that, which they've
55:14gotten. And then once it's going
55:16tokenization and stable coins and
55:18everything accelerating, which is going
55:19to be accelerated by the agents by the
55:20time we get to the next election, it'll
55:22again be a focal point and no one's
55:23going to want it to go backwards if it's
55:25reducing the cost of people to live
55:28their lives. And I think that's what's
55:30going to happen. And one more thing that
55:31fits in with it. So when we get back to
55:33the stability side, it kind of directly
55:35comes back to the polarizing situation
55:37of of of politics.
55:39Like I said, there's a polarizing situ
55:41with inside crypto, the Bitcoiners and
55:44the programmables. And I wish everyone
55:45could all get along together, but for
55:46some reason, I go on Bitcoin podcast and
55:49well, we don't really say crypto or we
55:51don't get involved. I'm like, I don't
55:53understand this whole thing. I'm new to
55:54the party, guys. I'm looking at this as
55:56everyone's going to win. This fits back
55:58into the question of stability. If I
56:00said to you, you're going to have chaos
56:03that's been just like the last 50 years.
56:05It won't be World War II and it won't be
56:07the Great Depression, but what you've
56:09gone through the last 30 years is going
56:12to continue. That chaos that you
56:14describe it as. But here's the benefit
56:16that comes with you signing up for that.
56:18You're going to live for another 300
56:19years. If that's what happens, like
56:23isn't that kind of the the the the quidd
56:26proquo of like you got to give up
56:28something, you're going to get
56:29something. I think when people look at
56:31what the administration has been able to
56:32do, I think you have to put in the
56:34context of if you believe AI is going to
56:37solve lots of problems and be dangerous
56:39at the same time and create lots of
56:40chaos. If the end result is living a lot
56:43longer, a healthier life, being able to
56:44see your kids grow up, that's a pretty
56:46good, you know, sign on the dotted line
56:49with the devil as to the outcome that's
56:51good.
56:51>> You think we're going to live to be 300?
56:53>> I I Marty, you can go back and read
56:57writings from me for a long time.
56:59[laughter] Um, do I believe in the
57:02exponential innovation and the solution
57:04of people not aging? Absolutely. It's a
57:06math problem. Um, so do I think 300,
57:10150, whatever the case is. It's hard for
57:12people to imagine, but if I would have
57:13told you that we'd have smartphones in
57:15our hands 25 years ago doing the stuff
57:17they're doing. If I told you that we'd
57:19be solving math problems that Einstein
57:22couldn't solve and that have been around
57:23for 150 to 175 years in a matter of 88
57:28hours.
57:29>> Do I think we're going to solve the
57:31world's greatest science problems? Yeah.
57:33What is the difference between saying
57:34we're going to have people living on
57:35Mars and living to 300? Like what's the
57:38where where does it get too crazy? So,
57:40yes, I do.
57:41the wild world. Where are the
57:43bottlenecks? So, obviously compute, we
57:45think compute usage, it already is going
57:46up exponentially. We're only on the
57:48cusp. Muse just dropped. I think that's
57:50going to have massive
57:52>> Yeah.
57:53>> Uh is going to lead to a massive growth
57:55in demand for for these tokens.
57:59Is that the biggest bottleneck right
58:00now?
58:01>> Biggest bottleneck is is humans. Um, you
58:04said it like everyone's worried the
58:06politics are making it a major issue.
58:08like the data centers can't be happening
58:10because they make up stuff about them
58:12and don't actually provide people with
58:14the right facts because the Chinese, the
58:17Russians, the Iranians, and anyone
58:18that's at either war or in competition
58:20with us wants our politics to be
58:22polarizing can just put something, you
58:24know, can take the the anthropic guy
58:26that worked there for 6 weeks and get
58:28him 170 million views on X, which is
58:31clearly part politics, part geopolitics
58:34in terms of the ability of making this
58:36viral. uh humans are the biggest
58:39friction and physics are number two but
58:42they're they go hand in hand and so this
58:43is going to in a good way this will have
58:47it go somewhat slower because I think
58:49the humans are doing the right thing
58:51with the pause in AI not not that
58:54they're pausing the development
58:57but the pause in releasing them and I
59:00think one thing everyone should think
59:01about and this is important for fiat
59:03assets in general meaning for stocks
59:06Alex Karp was on CNBC last week and
59:12he talked about the fact it's just a
59:14matter of time within the next year that
59:15OpenAI is nationalized.
59:18>> Yeah.
59:19Now, I've said this publicly, too, where
59:22not specifically them, but I've said to
59:24investors and I've said it in writings
59:26that it's like, where is the line
59:27between something that's so powerful
59:29that it could take down the entire
59:31system, which is what these guys wrote
59:33about, which they believe if you take
59:35the internet down, we're all in trouble.
59:37And they were saying that this is
59:40possible. Like, not just possible, like
59:42it is possible. It was happening with
59:44some of their things. It's not that it
59:45was taking it down, but it was creating
59:46these little places that you don't know
59:48they exist. So, I want people to think
59:50about like when you get a virus in your
59:52body.
59:54>> You don't find out until the symptoms
59:56start showing up. Like, it's in there.
59:58Like, you could be you could be sick
59:59now. You don't know.
1:00:01>> Eventually, your body starts showing the
1:00:02thing that that swarm outcome of hugging
1:00:05face that was a symptom. That was a hey
1:00:09um we got to take some medicine for
1:00:11this. So, the pause is related to it. So
1:00:13I do think what Alex Karp said is is a
1:00:16very real possibility. And the problem
1:00:17is if a pri if the most important public
1:00:20company in the world
1:00:22can be privatized.
1:00:25Again this is very powerful for
1:00:26entrepreneurs.
1:00:28It's very powerful for crypto. It is
1:00:31very negative for public companies in my
1:00:33opinion to have that kind of situation
1:00:35because then the question is where's the
1:00:36line for anyone? They've been investing
1:00:38in Intel. They mean once it gets to the
1:00:40point that it's that powerful it's a
1:00:41military weapon. I don't know where they
1:00:43don't get too involved in things. So, I
1:00:45think that was an important statement.
1:00:47Yeah.
1:00:51>> Yeah. The stakes are so high. I'm just
1:00:52thinking cuz and then because the next
1:00:55topic I wanted to bring up is robotics
1:00:56and I'm just thinking like okay like
1:00:58we're worried about uh stuff happening
1:01:01these these swarms
1:01:03uh getting getting into the digital
1:01:06world with robotics. It's a whole
1:01:08another thing is that enters the
1:01:09physical and it's
1:01:11>> Yeah. And yeah, and you talk because I
1:01:13wanted to bring up robotics in terms of
1:01:15like token consumption and the
1:01:17opportunity that exists there and how
1:01:19how how much is that going to balloon
1:01:21the the usage of of these GPUs and then
1:01:24you I now I'm scatterbrain but like
1:01:27bringing back open router like what is
1:01:28the market for these tokens even look
1:01:30like uh at the end of the day is the way
1:01:33that we're going and buying $200 a month
1:01:35subscriptions at all these different
1:01:38model providers will look back at that
1:01:40and like I was completely antiquated
1:01:42In the future, will we even know what
1:01:43models we're using or will there just be
1:01:46open router like companies that that
1:01:48emerge and do all that for you?
1:01:51>> I I it's very hard. Um
1:01:54so first on the progression of compute
1:01:56needs for everything and and now we're
1:01:58talking about the edge. So currently
1:02:00we're doing everything token wise in the
1:02:02cloud onrem is starting. So when you
1:02:05start getting into the law firms or you
1:02:06start getting into um into Eli Liy, well
1:02:09they're building their own compute
1:02:11providers that way. Think of this as the
1:02:14only analogy I can come up with is um
1:02:17when we went from an agrarian economy to
1:02:19an industrial economy and John Gray
1:02:22included this kind of visual back in in
1:02:24the presentation I mentioned that's
1:02:25that's on YouTube and that was in 1870
1:02:29to to 1900. So if you go back to the
1:02:32days of when like when we were truly
1:02:35agrarian,
1:02:37we built crops, you know, we we raised
1:02:39crops to feed our community and that's
1:02:41what we did. Now there were little jobs,
1:02:43there were blacksmiths, there were stuff
1:02:45like that, but eventually you get into
1:02:46industrialization and you get
1:02:47urbanization and you speed up this whole
1:02:49process. When I would travel to China
1:02:50and I saw the ghost cities, that was
1:02:52urbanization. They were still an
1:02:53agrarian economy that was now trying to
1:02:56get everyone to go to the city because
1:02:57when you go to the city then you have
1:02:58more economic growth and people get
1:03:00wealthier and all these things. And so I
1:03:01witnessed this whole thing happen in
1:03:03China. I watched them build eight lane
1:03:05highways when you're like there's no
1:03:07cars. Everybody's in a rickshaw. They
1:03:09were building for the future and how
1:03:11fast they were going to invest in this.
1:03:12So with compute the only analogy I can
1:03:16give is that when you go from the
1:03:18agrarian to the industrial what ended up
1:03:19happening? We saw an explosion in people
1:03:21people on the on the on the planet. So
1:03:24you go from we're feeding our community,
1:03:26all the food we need is here. Now we're
1:03:28going to the cities. We're exploding the
1:03:30population. When I say exploding it,
1:03:32we're going from less than a billion
1:03:33people to where we are today.
1:03:35>> Mhm.
1:03:36>> An extra 7 billion, seven times. And
1:03:38we're shrinking farming. So if
1:03:41everyone's leaving being a farmer and
1:03:42now they're going to work in the cities,
1:03:44how the hell do we feed everyone? Those
1:03:46people need food. Everybody. So what do
1:03:49AI agents and humanoids need? They need
1:03:51food and their food is compute. So we're
1:03:54at the very early stages. And if you go
1:03:56back to the agrarian example, there's
1:03:57less than a billion agents. There's less
1:03:59like we're at the very early stage. So
1:04:01whenever people tell me we're going to
1:04:02be over supplied in compute, I'm like
1:04:04you don't know what you're saying. Like
1:04:06this didn't exist. We have to feed now
1:04:08trillions of agents. So every day
1:04:11enterprise agents come on. Like I said,
1:04:13well now we're going to have the next
1:04:15phase which is consumer agents. Then
1:04:18behind that we have FSD, we have
1:04:21[snorts] humanoids. Well, that's the
1:04:23same as the other agents. No, that
1:04:24brings vision in like they need to work
1:04:27in the world. So adding vision into the
1:04:30compute needs for a car to make
1:04:33decisions on the fly for a humanoid to
1:04:36see that grandma needs needs her
1:04:39medicine and it needs vision and it
1:04:41needs to understand and learn as it goes
1:04:43through it. So you're talking about
1:04:46compute needs that are far greater than
1:04:47what humans can comprehend. And these
1:04:49are facts as to what's coming. The
1:04:50humanoids are not a distant thing. Like
1:04:52they're here today. The FSD is here
1:04:54today. So whenever I just kind of think
1:04:57of people, I'm like, we're only in the
1:04:58first inning of the compute needs. So to
1:05:00your point, the humanoids and the
1:05:02robotics have a huge impact on the
1:05:04compute needs, which is why the
1:05:05investment side for the memory names for
1:05:06the semiconductors, all that. Why I have
1:05:08my 100 name portfolio. It's like, guys,
1:05:10this isn't over. We're just at the next
1:05:13stage. And consumer agents are starting
1:05:14now. And that's why Meta was up 13% on
1:05:17Monday because people were like, "Wow,
1:05:18this is the most downloaded app." What
1:05:19do they do? Consumer agents. Wow, we're
1:05:20at consumer agent time. What does that
1:05:22mean? And now they're starting to look.
1:05:23AMD is up. Intel's up. Oh my god, we
1:05:25need more semis. So,
1:05:26>> yeah. Energy. Do we have enough energy?
1:05:29Are we building it fast enough? The
1:05:31infrastructure.
1:05:32>> Um,
1:05:34so on the one side, if you assume static
1:05:37innovation, uh, we're in trouble.
1:05:41If you assume innovation, we have
1:05:44plenty. Um, and let me let me before
1:05:47people go, he's wrong. Go through it.
1:05:49No, we have plenty of power inside the
1:05:51United States for all of the compute I
1:05:53just said, at least for the next 3
1:05:54years, assuming it doesn't go parabolic.
1:05:56Probably the next five. Where's it going
1:05:58to come from magically? The grid. The
1:06:00grid's old. We don't have enough. Yes,
1:06:02we do. We just can't use it efficiently.
1:06:05We have double the amount of capacity
1:06:08because we can't run it at full. And if
1:06:10people don't know that, they should go
1:06:11look it up. So you have to think of
1:06:13novel solutions and what AI could bring
1:06:15because that's the thing people
1:06:16underestimate is when you're in
1:06:18exponential innovation, they extrapolate
1:06:20linearly out. It's like no, no, no.
1:06:22Along the way, we're going to solve
1:06:23problems. Where does Navier Stokes fit
1:06:26in that whole thing?
1:06:28Fluid dynamics. Okay. Well, that has an
1:06:31impact on gas turbines, has an impact on
1:06:34boats, on planes. Also has an impact on
1:06:37batteries. You know how important
1:06:39batteries are to the grid? If [snorts]
1:06:41right today we could have a bunch of
1:06:43batteries, we could plug everyone into
1:06:45the grid and not have a problem. One of
1:06:47the reasons why Bitcoin miners have
1:06:49become more attractive in certain states
1:06:50like Texas, cuz they're like, "Wait a
1:06:51second. So you guys can use the grid
1:06:55when no one else is using the grid, but
1:06:57then you can turn it off because when
1:06:59the power goes up, it's a bad arbitrage
1:07:00for you guys. You guys are actually like
1:07:02a a synthetic like group that's good for
1:07:06the the grid." Yep. They are. So that's
1:07:08one of the reasons why Bitcoin miners
1:07:10have become more of an interesting part
1:07:12of this. And again, how crypto is
1:07:14connected to AI in various ways. Here's
1:07:16the other place. When you're in this
1:07:19situation, if you take the batteries and
1:07:20you connect to the grid and you store
1:07:22all that power, then you can throttle,
1:07:25you can just run it all the time and
1:07:26fill it up. And then if we ever need
1:07:28that point because there's a a a weather
1:07:30event or something that drives the
1:07:32demand up because the temperatures go up
1:07:34to 150 in Texas and everyone's sitting
1:07:36there and they got their air conditioner
1:07:37running all the day and you're okay, the
1:07:39grid's going to go down. Oh no, we'll
1:07:40just use the battery that we have stored
1:07:42for the next year. Now to have that just
1:07:44like you had to do with Tesla when they
1:07:46created the cars and the batteries,
1:07:48there was no novel solution, but we went
1:07:50from people doubting an electric car to
1:07:53where we are today. When they first came
1:07:55out, I think there was 20 miles of
1:07:57distance or something like that. Go back
1:07:58and read the original Roadster thing and
1:08:00how far you could go. But the reason it
1:08:02was not a viable solution is because you
1:08:05couldn't drive it that far. You could
1:08:06drive it around the corner, show show it
1:08:08off, and then you had to come back and
1:08:09plug in again. And the plugging in took
1:08:11a long period of time because there were
1:08:12no chargers. Now, fast forward, the car
1:08:15gets 400 miles of range. The chargers
1:08:18are everywhere. So, I don't think people
1:08:19are thinking enough about how batteries
1:08:21are a solution to the energy problem.
1:08:23And now I have full confidence, full
1:08:25confidence that between that, the
1:08:28innovations that have already happened
1:08:29this year to allow us to build things
1:08:32behind the meter, which was not a thing
1:08:33before Colossus, all of these
1:08:36innovations are coming, my friend. Yeah,
1:08:38that's uh it's funny how the Bitcoin
1:08:42mining industry I've been in it for
1:08:45eight years now and we went through
1:08:48discovering all this and now watching
1:08:50the world wake up to what we've been
1:08:51beating the the table over for for
1:08:54probably [snorts] 6 years since the uh
1:08:57right before the Chinese mining ban
1:08:58particularly with demand response it's
1:09:00like yes we've been telling you and
1:09:02behind the meter even that's what uh I
1:09:05was in oil fields in North Dakota
1:09:08I wasn't personally, but I the company
1:09:09that uh that I I worked for from 2018 to
1:09:132021, we did flare gas mining. So, we'd
1:09:15bring generators on a well pad, take the
1:09:18gas, scrub it, put it through a
1:09:19generator, mine Bitcoin with it. And
1:09:22there's a ton and it's been interesting,
1:09:24too. This is talking about the
1:09:26convergence of crypto and AI, Bitcoin,
1:09:29AI. It happens in something we're
1:09:31talking about energy, we're talking
1:09:32about agents,
1:09:33>> but the people even open router was
1:09:35founded [snorts] by the open the open C
1:09:38team which was the NF platform and their
1:09:40head of strategy uh was an ex-marathon
1:09:43guy. Uh and I'm going to record next
1:09:46with uh
1:09:47>> somebody from news research. he came
1:09:49from Foundry and like it's there's this
1:09:52um and I think we've discussed this
1:09:54before but in my life the early adopters
1:09:58of AI have typically been people in the
1:10:00Bitcoin industry uh that are that are
1:10:03there's there's something
1:10:06uh with the psyche of people that that
1:10:08have been in this industry and I I think
1:10:10the fact that they're in it is a tell
1:10:12that they're early adopters and uh
1:10:15that's that's the thing I I don't think
1:10:17many people appreciate is like a lot of
1:10:18the companies that are coming up in AI
1:10:20have people that came from this
1:10:22industry. And to your point about these
1:10:24these convergences, they're happening at
1:10:26every layer, like even the people layer.
1:10:28>> Mhm. And vice versa, too. Um I'm I'm
1:10:32guessing you've never heard of Ali Yaya.
1:10:34>> No.
1:10:35>> Okay. So, Ali Yaya is one of the
1:10:38original partners of A16Z.
1:10:41>> Mhm.
1:10:42>> He is part of the crypto group. So, he's
1:10:45been at the place a long time. and I ran
1:10:47into him and I'm going to be I I I just
1:10:49did a video for my subscribers titled
1:10:52crypto why now? And this was my way of
1:10:55kind of saying to people who are part of
1:10:57my AI subscribers, but this is also for
1:11:00crypto people because
1:11:02like I I've listened to you for a while
1:11:05like as I've kind of consumed knowledge
1:11:07to to understand crypto more. I have to
1:11:11go back to the people that have been
1:11:12creating content for a long time because
1:11:15as I believe and as you know when you
1:11:17interview smart people you consume a lot
1:11:19of that information. There's things I
1:11:20said today that you're have connected
1:11:22for you. There's things you've asked me
1:11:24that have connected for me. Ali Yaya um
1:11:28went to Stanford. He worked in Google X
1:11:31out of school. Then he worked for Google
1:11:34Brain.
1:11:37He's an AI and cryptography expert.
1:11:40He decided
1:11:42to go to A16Z because his story is that
1:11:47he was trying to convince the Google X
1:11:49guys to invest in crypto. It's a great
1:11:51story of someone I'd never heard of, but
1:11:53I'm using him in my video and I used him
1:11:55in the video for Why Now for people to
1:11:58go learn because I'm like, you should go
1:11:59listen to this guy talk about it. So,
1:12:01the the videos I'm showing are recent
1:12:04interviews with him in May. They raised
1:12:06another fund at A16Z, which I think is
1:12:08really important for people on the
1:12:09crypto side. This was in the the depths
1:12:11of the bare market. So, this is when
1:12:13Bitcoin had been down for 6 months um or
1:12:177 months since since October 10th. and
1:12:21they're talking about taking in $2.2
1:12:23billion for it. And the whole rationale
1:12:26with Chris Dixon, who you probably have
1:12:29heard of. So Ali Yaya is the person that
1:12:31nobody seems to know. I didn't know him.
1:12:32I knew Chris Dixon for a long time. Ali
1:12:34Yaya is the person I care the most about
1:12:36because
1:12:38>> he understands the value of the agentic
1:12:40side. He talks about privacy. He's the
1:12:43one that got me so focused on Zcash. And
1:12:45I started to understand from a business
1:12:47fiduciary who's raised money who now
1:12:50understands, oh my gosh, I think Zcash
1:12:53should be up massively over the next
1:12:55year if my view of the value of privacy,
1:12:59my view of the value of trust. These are
1:13:00all things that I'm realizing crypto is
1:13:02going to be valued off of. It's going to
1:13:04be off privacy. It's going to be off
1:13:06trust. It's going to be off speed. These
1:13:08are metrics that don't fit in the the
1:13:10fiat system. You can't do that with
1:13:12stocks, but there's value for it. That's
1:13:14why the multiple is going down because
1:13:15on the flip side, I don't trust you're
1:13:18going to be here in the next 5 years
1:13:20because terminal value is gone. Like I
1:13:21could do this all day. Your business is
1:13:24too slow, Visa. You're not going to be
1:13:26in business. You better adapt. Like
1:13:28everything is about those things that I
1:13:30mentioned. Privacy, like Zcash, the
1:13:33ability to do things and not actually
1:13:35know who's on the other side. Should it
1:13:36be bigger than Bitcoin? No. Should it
1:13:39probably be 10% of the value of it?
1:13:41Yeah, my guess is it probably should in
1:13:43the long run if I'm right about privacy.
1:13:45Ali Yaya takes you through his vision of
1:13:48the world and how important agents are
1:13:50to it and it's very hard for me to find
1:13:52people that speak that way. I have to go
1:13:54into the depths of someone who went to
1:13:56Stanford was in Google Brain and all
1:13:58this. So, I think as you kind of connect
1:14:00all these dots and you start going
1:14:01through the way all this plays out, the
1:14:04backwards side of the power and the
1:14:05electricity side and how it connects
1:14:07back into this, they're all related to
1:14:09AI and crypto being synergistically the
1:14:12thing that matters the most in the next
1:14:14decade.
1:14:15>> Have you looked into e-cash at all?
1:14:18>> Uh, I have not spent I have not spent
1:14:20enough time on e-cash.
1:14:21>> Look into e-cash. I will say the uh the
1:14:23double blinded signatures. Um, I think
1:14:26that if you're looking for like
1:14:27velocity,
1:14:29uh, I think eCash is, uh, is a much much
1:14:32better suited than Zcash right now. I
1:14:34don't know what the Zcash L2s look like,
1:14:35but uh, eCash is gives you that perfect
1:14:38privacy, but the speed at which you can
1:14:41transact, particularly for agents, and
1:14:42I've given my agent an ecash wallet.
1:14:45>> And it's funny, uh, just watching it go.
1:14:47>> Yeah.
1:14:47>> I'm like, hey, go on Ellen Markets and
1:14:49trade. Just take like just messing with
1:14:52like go on Ellen Markets. you can sign
1:14:54in using your lightning network uh
1:14:56address and then use ecash to tra send
1:14:59it money in with ecash when you send it
1:15:01back convert it back to e-cash and it's
1:15:03here's my issue um as people kind of
1:15:06think of this I think when
1:15:10so only reason I care about Zcash is
1:15:12because the privacy side what Robin Hood
1:15:17chain like everything for me started
1:15:19with XY blah blah blah blah so I have a
1:15:22chain that goes backwards The mistake
1:15:23people are going to make is doing
1:15:25homework on these things like it
1:15:26matters.
1:15:27>> Mhm.
1:15:28>> Whether something goes from 1 to 100 or
1:15:311 to 200 and something else goes from 1
1:15:33to 300 or 1 to 400 is complete waste of
1:15:36time. Um, in the end they're both going
1:15:39to peak and they're both going to stop
1:15:41growing at some [snorts] point. And once
1:15:44we get to the point where privacy is is
1:15:47valued, maybe that prevents them from
1:15:49getting combined or let's assume there's
1:15:5110 of them, I still believe in the end,
1:15:54and it's a perfect example, the value of
1:15:57privacy relative to Bitcoin should be 10
1:16:01to 15%. Just because that's what goes on
1:16:04in certain parts of the world where
1:16:05people need the privacy.
1:16:07>> Most people don't. Most businesses
1:16:09don't, but some businesses like an asset
1:16:11manager, they can't have their clients
1:16:13out there. Like there's certain
1:16:15components where agent to agent when
1:16:16they're talking, you don't want them to
1:16:18know who it is. So, I just think for all
1:16:20of it, um the rather than get into who
1:16:23wins, who loses, that to me is a
1:16:25dangerous game, especially at this part
1:16:27of the cycle. I think this part of the
1:16:28cycle is like it was for semiconductors
1:16:30in the first quarter. Didn't matter
1:16:32which one you bought, they all went up
1:16:34five to 10 times. The pain now is which
1:16:37one do I buy? And that's the knife
1:16:39fight. And the knife fight is much
1:16:40harder than the oh, we didn't even see
1:16:42this coming fight. And the we didn't see
1:16:44it coming is where we are in crypto in
1:16:45my mind.
1:16:46>> You know what I've realized is uh I
1:16:48guess our fourth or fifth conversation
1:16:49with this one. I think you might be the
1:16:51anti-EDron. I think you two are on like
1:16:53polar opposite ends of the spectrum of
1:16:56uh of your view on this whole thing. And
1:16:58it's funny that he he's very popular
1:17:00right now. talked about the wall of
1:17:01worry and people uh fearful of the the
1:17:05circular financing and the fact that
1:17:07nothing's here. Do you like it's it
1:17:09blows my mind that somebody like him can
1:17:12get as popular. Um but I think it's
1:17:14people want to confirm their priors, but
1:17:18the uh I I think you're the you're the
1:17:20anti-Eron is how I would describe you.
1:17:24First of all, I think um there's a
1:17:26reason why
1:17:28uh horror movies are very popular. I
1:17:31think there's a reason why um
1:17:35it's a lot of things people like worry
1:17:37about. Um worrying is just gotten worse
1:17:40over time. So, uh you know
1:17:43>> what's that?
1:17:44>> Bears get slaughtered, bulls, uh bulls
1:17:46make money. Is
1:17:47>> no. Like so I I'm not [snorts]
1:17:51again I think the fiat system is is is
1:17:54an old system that is not going to
1:17:55produce the returns that people want. I
1:17:59think crypto is a hedge to that. I think
1:18:01AI is a hedge to it but AI disrupts AI
1:18:05um from an investment thing like I I
1:18:06don't think these are things that you
1:18:08can invest in based on valuation. I
1:18:10think this is all about the speed. It's
1:18:12all about speed. Um that's just it. And
1:18:15investing in speed is very different
1:18:16than friction. And if you just take
1:18:19those two, like I'm investing in speed,
1:18:21I'm investing in friction. And I said,
1:18:23well, which one is crypto? Which one is
1:18:26fiat? You know what it is? Friction is
1:18:28fiat. It's the intermediaries slowing
1:18:31things down as much as possible. I want
1:18:33to invest in speed. And you know what
1:18:35speed is? Speed is about everyone
1:18:38benefiting. So like when you say
1:18:39concentration and circular finance of
1:18:41course there's circular finance
1:18:44that is called concentration.
1:18:47Seven companies control the world
1:18:50literally. So of course they're lending
1:18:53to each other. That is called where we
1:18:55ended up in. Now if you had invested in
1:18:58that circular finance back in in 2010 it
1:19:01didn't exist because we were we weren't
1:19:03concentrated. We got to this point. So,
1:19:06should Nvidia be buying back stock or
1:19:08should they be investing in the
1:19:10companies that they are helping grow
1:19:12this whole thing?
1:19:13>> Well, that I mean I think we've
1:19:15discussed this before, but like how much
1:19:16cash did these companies have on their
1:19:18balance sheet in the 2010s, early 2020s?
1:19:20And to your point, they were all just
1:19:22buying back stock. They weren't
1:19:23investing in the infrastructure. So,
1:19:25taking a positive view of this, it's
1:19:28like, hey, they're actually taking that
1:19:30cash, taking risk with it, investing in
1:19:32infrastructure that we're all going to
1:19:33use. it's uh they were growing too fast
1:19:36and their cash buyback started to become
1:19:38a major part of the market let's say at
1:19:402014 2015 because they were growing so
1:19:43fast they were getting so big um this is
1:19:46one of the problems like so when cash on
1:19:49the balance sheets is far bigger today
1:19:52than it was in 2010 and this is part of
1:19:54the issue when people talk about the
1:19:55debt I'm like you guys can create any
1:19:59scary stat you want it's like picking a
1:20:02hitter
1:20:05batter [snorts] is seven of the last
1:20:06eight. He's hot, but of the last
1:20:09hundred, he's seven of the last hundred.
1:20:11So, he's only hot for a short amount of
1:20:13time. He's ice cold for this. You can
1:20:15play with statistics. Look how big the
1:20:18debt market they whenever they show
1:20:19these charts. I know you've seen them on
1:20:21X, like hypers scaler debt. It was zero
1:20:24before, now it's big. So, the image we
1:20:27get that's big is these big histogram
1:20:30poles.
1:20:31>> Mhm. And before it was nothing. There's
1:20:33two stories here. One is how do
1:20:36companies get so big without taking debt
1:20:38for the prior 10 years. Isn't that part
1:20:41of the story? Because the only way these
1:20:43things look big is based on the fact
1:20:45that it was so small before
1:20:48they have cash. So if you put in how
1:20:50much cash they're making, they were
1:20:52making tons of cash. So I don't believe
1:20:56in any of this stuff in terms of this.
1:20:58the cash on the balance sheets of
1:20:59corporates when you add in the liquid
1:21:03cuz we now have interest rates. So cash
1:21:05was bigger back then or it was smaller
1:21:07but the growth hasn't been that big but
1:21:09that's because you hold treasuries now
1:21:11because they're actually paying you
1:21:12interest. So when you combine them
1:21:14together and you take the net debt of
1:21:16the market in terms of the corporate
1:21:18debt or the the gross debt and then you
1:21:21put in the amount of cash they have,
1:21:24you'd be shocked at how good the balance
1:21:25sheets are in the corporate sector.
1:21:27That's why spreads are so like
1:21:29nonmoving. Why is CDS going up? Because
1:21:32of that circular finance concentration
1:21:33risk. You telling me you shouldn't be
1:21:36buying CDS on this and you don't think
1:21:38other hedge funds who are long the the
1:21:40names, the equity names shouldn't be
1:21:42buying CDS on these names because
1:21:44they're the ones spending all the money.
1:21:45If for any reason they can't spend the
1:21:47money, the whole AI trade goes down. So,
1:21:49isn't this one way? Let me be long the
1:21:52receivers and let me be instead of being
1:21:54short the equity because the equity is
1:21:55at alltime highs, guys. If you didn't
1:21:57notice, like I don't know debt problems
1:21:58that have ever been in the world where
1:21:59the equities at the all-time highs. It's
1:22:02the junior part of the stack. So if the
1:22:03debt is an issue, shouldn't the equity
1:22:05be down first? That's what happened in
1:22:06every that's what happened with the
1:22:07banks. That's what happened with the oil
1:22:09stocks. But instead, they're at the
1:22:10highest level ever. So for all of the
1:22:12spenders right now, rather than short
1:22:15the equity, just go buy the CDS in the
1:22:17event that something happens. You'll
1:22:18make a lot of money on it. You can lever
1:22:19it up. Yeah.
1:22:21>> It's always an incredible pleasure
1:22:23speaking with you, Jordy. I appreciate
1:22:25you. uh taken time. Anything that we
1:22:28didn't touch on that uh that we should
1:22:30make the audience aware of?
1:22:31>> We covered a lot.
1:22:33>> Uh only thing I I'll say is um for the
1:22:37last year I've spent all my time
1:22:41focusing on launching something to help
1:22:45educate people on AI with eventually
1:22:47crypto being part of it. Starting in,
1:22:50since you watched the stuff that I do in
1:22:52my videos, starting in June, I started
1:22:55telling people, okay, I'm going to be
1:22:57launching a crypto site. It's going to
1:22:58happen in September, October.
1:23:01>> Now, I could have launched something in
1:23:02July. Why did I say September October?
1:23:05For those who know me, I work even in
1:23:07the summertime, even though I'm in
1:23:08Maine. Um, this was solely about me
1:23:10timing things based on where I thought
1:23:13the agentic side would kick in and I
1:23:16believed it would happen later in the
1:23:17year. So, I've been talking about
1:23:19consumer agents as the big trade for
1:23:20next year that crypto would be the big
1:23:22trade. Anyone who saw me speak in Fort
1:23:24Lauderdale or LA or any of the places
1:23:26this year where I got on stage and I
1:23:27said the micron of next year is crypto.
1:23:31So, when you're looking for what's a 10
1:23:33bag or a 13 bag or over the course of a
1:23:35year, it's going to be because consumer
1:23:37agents start getting into needing the
1:23:39guard rails and we'll finally there. So,
1:23:41the only thing I want people to realize,
1:23:42the reason I'm now launching the crypto
1:23:45part of it, which is on the site, and
1:23:46for people who've already subscribed, so
1:23:48they were always getting AI, now they're
1:23:49getting crypto. So, they're getting two
1:23:50videos a week. These will not be on
1:23:52YouTube, but they're also getting the
1:23:53research. And I bring that up because if
1:23:55you're a person that doesn't feel like
1:23:57you understand and you can't get out of
1:23:59the worry, if you don't understand
1:24:01crypto, and if you watch last week's, I
1:24:03compared it to learning cricket as a
1:24:05American baseball fan. Like cricket is a
1:24:08very complicated game of which I'm not
1:24:10going to take the time. But learning a
1:24:11new sport that takes a lot of time. You
1:24:13got to see the nuances. Crypto is going
1:24:15to be a very difficult learning curve
1:24:16for for people. Far more difficult than
1:24:19buying AMD, Intel or Micron. You know
1:24:22that language. This is a new world and
1:24:24unfortunately a lot of the crypto people
1:24:26are going to scare you. Uh a lot of the
1:24:28Trafi people are going to scare you.
1:24:30Jordy's job is to be here and keep you
1:24:32from being scared. [laughter]
1:24:34If you don't want to be scared, check
1:24:36out J. As uh as somebody who watches
1:24:38your videos and is a subscriber, it's uh
1:24:41it's been an incredible amount of value
1:24:42for me personally. So, thank you for
1:24:44doing it and uh thank you for joining
1:24:45us.
1:24:46>> No problem. And send me your thoughts on
1:24:47the video. It's getting released
1:24:48Wednesday morning. So, why now in
1:24:50crypto?
1:24:50>> I'll I'll uh I'll have to go manually
1:24:52buy a train ticket and [laughter] then
1:24:54watch it on the train. Agents aren't
1:24:56there yet. Peace, love, freaks.
1:24:58>> Thank you for listening to this episode
1:24:59of TFTC. If you've made it this far, I
1:25:02imagine you got some value out of the
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1:25:06wide with your friends and family. We're
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1:25:46you for your time and until next time.

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