The 6 Best NFL Player Props for Week 4! — Transcript

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1. 0:01NFL week four is upon us and in this
2. 0:03video I'm going through my six favorite
3. 0:05player props for Sunday slate. Let's
4. 0:07hope to go six and 0 and we're going to
5. 0:08begin out in Cincinnati. We're trusting
6. 0:10one of the best wide receivers in
7. 0:12football, Jamar Chase. First play of the
8. 0:13weekend over six and a half receptions
9. 0:16minus 115 on Betr 65 for one unit. I'd
10. 0:19play him honestly up to eight, nine,
11. 0:20maybe even 10. If you recall last season
12. 0:22these two teams faced, Jamar doubled the
13. 0:24line. He had 14 receptions. Now, I don't
14. 0:27necessarily know if he's getting 14. I
15. 0:28only want seven from him on Sunday, but
16. 0:31love the match-up here against a very,
17. 0:33very good Jaguars rush defense. Over the
18. 0:35last few seasons they've been one of the
19. 0:37best rush defenses in football. And
20. 0:39again with a high total, a Jaguars
21. 0:40offense that can put up points, I expect
22. 0:42Jamar to continue to do what he's been
23. 0:44doing the last few weekends. Obviously
24. 0:46he had a bad week one, but since then
25. 0:48seven, nine receptions against tougher
26. 0:50match-ups and he leads this Bengals
27. 0:52offense in first read target percentage
28. 0:55at almost 40%. We know Joe Burrow loves
29. 0:58him and I also think he could have a big
30. 1:00game receiving yards wise if you want to
31. 1:02go for that or maybe you want to build
32. 1:03some parlays like that, but with a total
33. 1:05set to in the mid in the low 50s, 50 and
34. 1:08a half, 51 and a half, I think this is a
35. 1:10spot where Jamar can absolutely feast.
36. 1:12When he's with Joe Burrow and the games
37. 1:14are competitive, he absolutely is a
38. 1:16target hog. Seven receptions, I know
39. 1:18it's a high line, but it's not high
40. 1:21enough in my opinion. I think the line
41. 1:22should be seven and a half. He's that
42. 1:24good. I don't know if he sees 16 targets
43. 1:26like he did last year versus the
44. 1:27Jaguars, but again he should continue to
45. 1:29be fed. He's going to be a guy that will
46. 1:31get some shorter receptions like five,
47. 1:33six yards. He'll have some big plays as
48. 1:35well. Love his over six and a half
49. 1:37receptions in my first play of the
50. 1:38weekend. I wish I could track this next
51. 1:40one towards the official plays because
52. 1:42it's a free pick. Dak Dak Prescott to
53. 1:44get one passing yard. I know, it's it's
54. 1:46a little cheesy, but it is on parlay
55. 1:47play. So a reminder if you want to take
56. 1:48advantage of that boost, you sign up
57. 1:50with my code COS, you get this free
58. 1:52pick, which is cool. I'll show you how
59. 1:53I'm using it at the end of the video,
60. 1:55but you also get a 100% deposit match as
61. 1:58well as five free bucks just for using
62. 2:00my code COY. So, again, whatever that
63. 2:02deposit match means, you go in there,
64. 2:04you deposit $10 here, there's an extra
65. 2:0610, plus an extra five, plus that Dak
66. 2:08Prescott free pick. If you put deposit
67. 2:10up to 100, they're doubling it, so it's
68. 2:12free money. I encourage you guys to use
69. 2:13it even if you maybe love PrizePicks or
70. 2:15love Underdog Fantasy. If your state is
71. 2:18in yellow, there's no reason leave the
72. 2:19free money out on the table. Test it
73. 2:20out. Throw your $20 in there, you'll
74. 2:22basically have 50 bucks. Throw some
75. 2:23parlays and stuff on the Sunday slate.
76. 2:26If you win some money, I would draw from
77. 2:27them if you don't love the experience,
78. 2:29which I think you will. Again, there's
79. 2:30all the states in yellow, so take
80. 2:31advantage. Let's get into my second play
81. 2:33though. Let's talk all about this fella,
82. 2:35and I'm going to be honest, it's an
83. 2:36under. We can't just only bet overs.
84. 2:38Lamar Jackson under 28 and 1/2 pass
85. 2:41attempts. Um, I have this line closer to
86. 2:4326 and 1/2. Um, I'm up took this at
87. 2:45minus 128 on DraftKings. The line might
88. 2:48have switched a little bit. I still see
89. 2:50a lot of books at 27 and 1/2, which
90. 2:52pretty damn good for me. Playing this
91. 2:53one for one unit as well. Um, the first
92. 2:56and foremost, there's a chance for rain
93. 2:57in this game, which obviously would bode
94. 2:59well. Uh, but secondly, they're huge
95. 3:01favorites at home taking on the Titans.
96. 3:02And if you've watched Titans football,
97. 3:04I'm sorry, you can't go those hours
98. 3:05back. The Titans have looked pretty bad
99. 3:07this season. And I expect the Ravens to
100. 3:10take care of business here. They already
101. 3:11kind of played with their food against
102. 3:12the Saints in their other home game few
103. 3:14weeks back before traveling to Brazil
104. 3:16last week. Um, I don't see them playing
105. 3:18with their food here. Let's get in and
106. 3:19out, get a W, and keep things moving to
107. 3:21next week, where I believe they have a
108. 3:22divisional game if I'm not mistaken.
109. 3:24But, again, they're big favorites, and
110. 3:25if you look at Lamar, when they've won
111. 3:28by five or more points, he's under this
112. 3:30line in 14 of 17 such games. And they're
113. 3:3310, 11-point favorites, so we're not
114. 3:35even saying they cover that line. Five
115. 3:37or more, basically a touchdown or more,
116. 3:39and he's going under. QBs against
117. 3:41Tennessee this season, 24, then we that
118. 3:44was Geno Smith, 37, which was Jalen
119. 3:46Hurts, they had to lead a comeback, and
120. 3:48then 22 pass attempts against him. I
121. 3:50mean, sure, James Winston was dealing
122. 3:51with a little bit of rain last week,
123. 3:52which again, this game could have a
124. 3:53little bit of rain in Baltimore. Um we
125. 3:55look at Derrick Henry, his rush attempts
126. 3:57line is sitting at 21 and a half on some
127. 3:59books. I just don't see them needing for
128. 4:02Lamar to throw it a ton. Also, the rate
129. 4:04the Titans defense hasn't been terrible
130. 4:06actually this season. Either they're
131. 4:08going to just pound the rock with
132. 4:09Derrick Henry, and they're just going to
133. 4:11pick up three, four, five yards per
134. 4:12carry. This is a Ravens offense that is
135. 4:14not afraid from ground and pound. If
136. 4:17Derrick Henry's cooking, there's no
137. 4:18reason to go away from it, and they
138. 4:20don't. I think this is a spot where
139. 4:22Lamar we know what he wants to do. He
140. 4:24throws a lot of deep balls, which is
141. 4:25good for an under in pass attempts. If
142. 4:27he completes a 70-yard pass for a
143. 4:29touchdown, great for us. I just don't
144. 4:31see him throwing it 29 times. Even if
145. 4:33the Titans offense stinks, I still think
146. 4:35this is a spot where even if he had like
147. 4:3720 in the first half, there's a chance
148. 4:39he doesn't throw the ball nine times in
149. 4:40the second half. Love his under here, 28
150. 4:43and a half pass attempts, one of my
151. 4:44favorite plays of the weekend. I also
152. 4:46have a ladder on a guy. Last week, I
153. 4:48said you can't spell ladder without lad,
154. 4:49and lad, he got the regular line for his
155. 4:52his his receiving yards ladder. Couldn't
156. 4:54go any higher. I mean, he had a bad
157. 4:55game, let's be honest. It's the Chargers
158. 4:57offense. I'm betting on this guy. Let's
159. 4:58head out to Malik Nabers. I took his
160. 5:00over at 54 and a half for a half unit,
161. 5:02which is minus 114. I also taking for
162. 5:0470, 80, and 90. The 90 coming in at plus
163. 5:07371.
164. 5:08Obviously, you see the units down below,
165. 5:100.5, 0.2, and then 0.1 on the 80 and 90
166. 5:14a piece. Obviously, last week the Giants
167. 5:16were playing in a monsoon, the
168. 5:17nor'easter. There was no urge to be
169. 5:20like, "You know what we should do with
170. 5:21James? Let's throw the football." No, it
171. 5:24was like, "All right, let's just try to
172. 5:25The Titans can't do anything on us.
173. 5:27Let's just try to run the ball, get on
174. 5:29out of here with a W." They didn't even
175. 5:30score a touchdown. And so, as a result,
176. 5:33like James wasn't really throwing a
177. 5:34bunch. It was a rainy game, and you saw
178. 5:36Cam Akers with 20 rush attempts, Najee
179. 5:38Harris with nine, Tyrod Taylor with one.
180. 5:40I mean, they had 33 rush attempts as a
181. 5:42team. Obviously, Nabers did not get get
182. 5:44it done. And if you look at his final
183. 5:46stat line, he had five catches for 26
184. 5:49yards. But, what's happened here? The
185. 5:51line has stayed basically the exact
186. 5:52same. And we've had an upgrade in
187. 5:54weather and an upgrade in matchup as
188. 5:56they face the Cardinals who have been
189. 5:58one of the worst pass defenses in
190. 5:59football. If you look at guys, they've
191. 6:01been getting torched. Mccaffrey in week
192. 6:03one for Chargers offense that barely had
193. 6:05200 yards passing. Uh he easily had over
194. 6:0880 and he didn't even play pretty much a
195. 6:10lot of the second half. He played less
196. 6:1250% of the snaps. Neighbors fourth week
197. 6:14fourth game back from that ACL injury.
198. 6:16He's obviously getting healthier and
199. 6:18healthier and and and things are like,
200. 6:19all right, this guy's now getting a
201. 6:21little bit more confident in his legs.
202. 6:23And I think this is a great spot for
203. 6:25him. Obviously, Mccaffrey dominated him.
204. 6:28JSN, I mean, he's one of the best wide
205. 6:30receivers in football, so he cooked him.
206. 6:31And then last week we saw, you know,
207. 6:33Brock Purdy only had 15 completions, but
208. 6:35you know that one that was that lateral
209. 6:37play to Deebo for over 80 yards. Kittle
210. 6:39had over 80 yards. Even Watkins had over
211. 6:4260. Neighbors is clearly the guy. We've
212. 6:44all seen James be a guy when he finds
213. 6:46his number one guy, he locks in and just
214. 6:48chucks it at him.
215. 6:49Neighbors in that game where he only had
216. 6:51one reception for one yard in that week
217. 6:53two game where Jackson Dark gets
218. 6:55injured, James comes in.
219. 6:57James took a shot downfield to Neighbors
220. 6:59and that is the James way. James is not
221. 7:01afraid if he sees one-on-one coverage to
222. 7:03give his guys a chance. I think
223. 7:05Neighbors gets a couple deep shots here.
224. 7:07They weren't willing to do it last week
225. 7:08with all the rain. There's no reason.
226. 7:10They were up the whole game. Cardinals
227. 7:12are pretty good offense. I think the
228. 7:13Cardinals could win this game. I like
229. 7:15Neighbors have a big game though. I love
230. 7:16laddering his yards. Obviously, I hope
231. 7:18he gets 90, but but I wouldn't be
232. 7:19shocked if he finishes in the mid-70s. I
233. 7:21like playing both those. Let's go a
234. 7:23little ladder on Mr. Neighbors. I also
235. 7:25have another ladder. This one's a little
236. 7:26smaller climb. It's on Christian
237. 7:28Mccaffrey. I like his receiving yards.
238. 7:30The regular line's at 38 and a half. I
239. 7:31played that for a half unit. And then
240. 7:33also sprinkled a quarter unit on the 50
241. 7:35plus at plus 170. Um Mccaffrey,
242. 7:38obviously the first two weeks of the
243. 7:39season people were really concerned
244. 7:41like, oh man, this guy's going to not
245. 7:42play at all the snaps they're really
246. 7:44easing him back in and then week three
247. 7:46game uh finally a competitive game for
248. 7:48him against the Cardinals and
249. 7:49he played over 80% of the snaps and I
250. 7:51think they're going to need him big time
251. 7:53here against the Denver Broncos and we
252. 7:55saw last week the Denver Broncos their
253. 7:57pass defense was not all that good and
254. 7:59that was against a very good Rams
255. 8:00passing attack now you have Brock Purdy
256. 8:02who's playing like honestly some of the
257. 8:04best football uh in the NFL and and he's
258. 8:07going to need options like I don't think
259. 8:08they're just going to be able to ground
260. 8:09and pound run the ball nonstop Mike
261. 8:11Evans is he even playing this game I
262. 8:13have no idea while I'm recording this
263. 8:15Friday afternoon I don't think it really
264. 8:17matters like if he plays or not he's
265. 8:18going to be out on the outside with Pat
266. 8:20Surtain and Brock Purdy's going to need
267. 8:22someone to throw to and it can't just be
268. 8:23George Kittle nonstop Deebo Samuel has
269. 8:25been all right it's going to be CMC he's
270. 8:27hit this over in back-to-back games not
271. 8:29the 50 he's ended in the low 40s but
272. 8:32again CMC
273. 8:34look at over the
274. 8:35over in this 16 of his last 22 games
275. 8:39I mean the guy's a beast and what I
276. 8:40really like about this is this the much
277. 8:43a great match up we saw last week
278. 8:45Kyren Williams absolutely dominated the
279. 8:47the Broncos passing a defense he went
280. 8:50for over 70 yards Kyren Williams is a
281. 8:52great receiving back he's not Christian
282. 8:53McCaffrey who's arguably one of the best
283. 8:55if not the best receiving back of all
284. 8:57time like he's really really good what I
285. 8:58like about it even more is this the
286. 9:00Broncos team that loves playing man
287. 9:02coverage man and last week when they
288. 9:04faced the Cardinals they ran zone at a
289. 9:0590% clip why does it matter with zone
290. 9:08versus man well CMC averages this season
291. 9:113.1 yards per route run against man
292. 9:13compared to like I think it's in the
293. 9:151.7s against zone he's still pretty damn
294. 9:17good when he's out there running about
295. 9:1920-ish routes so far per game this
296. 9:21season he's earned over 20% target share
297. 9:23that's when they've been mostly healthy
298. 9:26I think this is a very very good shot
299. 9:28for CMC to climb this ladder 38 and a
300. 9:30half 50 plus receiving yards I know it's
301. 9:33a high line for a running back but like
302. 9:35I think based on all their injuries CMC
303. 9:38is going to be going out wide for some
304. 9:39plays, and I think he's going to have
305. 9:40some great matchups, especially against
306. 9:42a Broncos defense that runs that all
307. 9:44that man coverage. You get CMC matched
308. 9:46up on a safety or a linebacker,
309. 9:48Brockford is going to be looking for
310. 9:50him, and they're not afraid to just
311. 9:51throw a a wheel route to CMC. He's
312. 9:53terrific at getting those, but he's
313. 9:55also, you know, if you throw him a
314. 9:57pass behind the line of scrimmage, he
315. 9:59can make guys miss and easily go up and
316. 10:01pick 15, 20 yards. If they trail, which
317. 10:03I'm not saying they do trail here, I
318. 10:05think it's an even better play. Love CMC
319. 10:07and love his receiving yards. I have two
320. 10:09plays specific to the VIP, which
321. 10:11reminder, I post all these plays early
322. 10:13to the Dub Club. So, again, if you've
323. 10:14ever wanted to join our VIP group, I
324. 10:16encourage you to do it. You get extra
325. 10:17plays, which I'm going to talk about
326. 10:18those in just a second. You also get all
327. 10:19these video plays early like the the
328. 10:21Jamar Chase one, the Lamar Jackson one.
329. 10:23Like those ones might move as the season
330. 10:24goes on. It moves especially for the NFL
331. 10:27or NBA, which starts up in just a few
332. 10:29weeks, less than 3 weeks, which is
333. 10:30pretty cool. But, you also get some
334. 10:32extra parlays. That's normally where I
335. 10:33post my first quarter props. I get
336. 10:35access to our Discord server. You want
337. 10:37to send me a message anytime of day, you
338. 10:39just ping me. I'm probably going to
339. 10:40answer you 95, 99% of the time. So,
340. 10:43again, if you want to join this week, I
341. 10:44have over and rushing receiving yards
342. 10:46for one unit, as well as another under
343. 10:48in pass attempts for a half unit. Um
344. 10:50again, if you want to join, we switched
345. 10:52the offer buy one month, get one month
346. 10:54free. Our our VIP is not one that, you
347. 10:56know, is $100 a month. It's $15 a month,
348. 11:00and we're always doing these discounts.
349. 11:01So, in fact, it's $7.50 over the next 2
350. 11:03months if you use that code. And again,
351. 11:06we're not we don't have like 35
352. 11:07different cappers that are sending out
353. 11:09plays, and it's like, I don't know who
354. 11:11the hell I'm tailing. I'm the only one
355. 11:12that sends out my picks. I have a long
356. 11:14proven track record. I know the NFL
357. 11:16season's been off to a slow start, but
358. 11:17proven track record. I encourage you to
359. 11:19get on in there if you wanted to. The
360. 11:20links are down below. But, I have some
361. 11:21more plays, a couple extra player props.
362. 11:24Again, I'm playing these on Parlay Play.
363. 11:26Get this Dak Prescott free pick if you
364. 11:27want it, as well as this deposit match
365. 11:29boost. Here's a couple other plays.
366. 11:30Here's where I'm using that Dak Prescott
367. 11:32pick. Tucker Kraft, I think he has a
368. 11:34good match up here for 42 receiving
369. 11:35yards. I know they're facing the Bucs
370. 11:37and a rookie QB. The Bucs can't and they
371. 11:39stopped the run really well and they
372. 11:41can't defend the pass. Tucker Kraft has
373. 11:42been playing a lot of snaps, had a
374. 11:43couple of drops last week. Think this is
375. 11:45a good week for him. No more Jayden
376. 11:46Reed. It's really the Watson, Golden,
377. 11:48and Tucker Kraft show.
378. 11:50I like Tucker Kraft 42 yards. I also
379. 11:52like his first quarter prop, too. A.J.
380. 11:54Dillon Skataboot, less than 16 and a
381. 11:55half rush attempts. Like I said, he had
382. 11:5720 last week, but again it was the rain,
383. 11:59monsoon, and there was no rain and they
384. 12:01led the whole entire game. They love
385. 12:03bringing in Najee Harris. I just don't
386. 12:05think that Giants team surpasses 25 plus
387. 12:07rush attempts this week. I know they are
388. 12:09a run-first team, but Skataboot really
389. 12:11hasn't shown a lot on the ground. Like
390. 12:12not a lot of explosiveness. Let's air
391. 12:14them on the air. Let's get neighbors in
392. 12:15that passing attack going. I think this
393. 12:17is the week they air it out. And Aaron
394. 12:19Jones, less than 17 and a half rush
395. 12:20attempts. I wish Jefferson was playing
396. 12:22for the Vikings, but if they do lead the
397. 12:24whole game against the Dolphins, I think
398. 12:26this is a great week to get that pass
399. 12:28attack going for the Vikings and Kyler
400. 12:30Murray. The Dolphins passing secondary
401. 12:32has been horrendous this season. So, get
402. 12:34that passing attack going. Get Jordan
403. 12:36Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and JoWan
404. 12:37Jennings, all those guys going. And if
405. 12:39they are leading late, there is no
406. 12:41reason to run Aaron Jones into the
407. 12:42ground. Give it to D.J. Dallas, De'Mont
408. 12:44Clayborn. Give it to those guys. Get
409. 12:46those guys some confidence. Aaron Jones
410. 12:48has obviously been a veteran in the
411. 12:49league. He doesn't need confidence. He's
412. 12:50already been seeing a lot of touches the
413. 12:52last two weeks. I don't think he sees a
414. 12:54ton here. Uh 17 I mean, last week his
415. 12:56line was 13 and a half. Now it's bumped
416. 12:57up four. Nothing's really changed. I
417. 13:00don't like it. I love the under. So, I
418. 13:02played $10 to win $100. Those are the
419. 13:04plays. Again, we do a video where if you
420. 13:06want to find my favorite spreads and
421. 13:07totals of the week, go check that video
422. 13:09out. I'll link it on the screen.
423. 13:10Thumbnail looks just like that one. Go
424. 13:12check it out. We have four plays over
425. 13:13there, four half-unit plays. So, make
426. 13:15sure you tap in. Again, we'll have our
427. 13:17parlays video posted Saturday evening.
428. 13:19So, make sure you tap into that. I will
429. 13:21include my touchdown parlay. I normally
430. 13:22put it in this video. Figured I'll just
431. 13:24put it there since I already talked
432. 13:25about it there. Also have a long shot.
433. 13:27at four guys to get 100 yards. It's plus
434. 13:295,000. Encourage you to tap into that as
435. 13:31well as some other long shots and stuff
436. 13:32like that. So, either way, let me know
437. 13:34your favorite picks down below. Thanks
438. 13:35as always for showing your support. Now,
439. 13:36it's been a rocky start to our season.
440. 13:38We're down five, six units. That'll turn
441. 13:40around real quick. It's going to happen
442. 13:42this week. I love the card we cooked up.
443. 13:44Neighbors, I need a big day out of you.
444. 13:46Lamar, take the week off. And Jamar
445. 13:48Chase, we need some receptions as well
446. 13:49as the other plays. Those are my picks.
447. 13:51Let's have a great week four. See you
448. 13:52guys back in the next one. Also, go
449. 13:53check out those other videos when
450. 13:54they're live. See you then. Peace.