Tesla Is 15 Cars From Passing Waymo — Transcript

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1. 0:00Tesla's Robo taxi just made a couple
2. 0:01major moves this morning. They're now
3. 0:03just 15 cars from passing Waymo in
4. 0:05Texas. 1,244 Robo taxis registered
5. 0:08against Waymo's 1,259
6. 0:11straight [music] from the Texas DMV. And
7. 0:13that was before Tesla switched on Robo
8. 0:15taxi city number seven this morning.
9. 0:17Here's the rundown. First, Robo taxi
10. 0:20went live in Fort Worth today at 6:00
11. 0:22a.m. across a 143 [music] square mile
12. 0:24geofence. That's bigger than the Dallas
13. 0:26zone on day one and already the third
14. 0:28largest behind Austin and in Houston.
15. 0:31Tesla now covers 224 square miles across
16. 0:33DFW. Second, the fleet numbers explain
17. 0:36how fast this is moving. Tesla
18. 0:38registered 164 new Robo taxis in Texas
19. 0:41over the last four days. And this whole
20. 0:43fleet was 59 cars back in June. At this
21. 0:47pace, Tesla likely passes Waymo this
22. 0:49week. While Waymo just announced its
23. 0:51next vehicle, a Toyota partnership that
24. 0:53starts testing in Japan in 2027.
25. 0:57Third, the expansion map keeps growing.
26. 0:59Tesla lists Las Vegas, Phoenix, San
27. 1:01Antonio, and Jacksonville as coming
28. 1:03soon. And it's hiring self-driving data
29. 1:05collection supervisors in 37 cities
30. 1:08across 20 states. Plus, Robo taxi
31. 1:10attendant roles in Arlington and Irving.
32. 1:13Cities that are aren't even in the
33. 1:14service area yet.
34. 1:16Fourth, the service itself got better
35. 1:18this week. Rides now run until 2:00 a.m.
36. 1:20Grok is in the Model Y Robo taxis and
37. 1:22Austin's October incident log came out.
38. 1:25Eight unverified complaints for Tesla,
39. 1:2712 for Waymo, zero collisions for
40. 1:29either. And finally, Bloomberg analyst
41. 1:32estimates have SpaceX profit growing
42. 1:34nearly 8,000% over the next four years.
43. 1:37Number one on the list. But Elon replied
44. 1:39saying Tesla will be very high also.
45. 1:42Jeff Lester is here with us today. He's
46. 1:44a multi-decade supply chain executive
47. 1:46and chief quality officer. He's now CEO
48. 1:48of his own high-tech manufacturing
49. 1:49consulting firm. Welcome, Jeff.
50. 1:51>> Hey, Herbert. Yeah, and lots going on.
51. 1:53Lots to discuss. Look forward to getting
52. 1:54into it.
53. 1:55>> Yeah, big moves for Robo taxi. First of
54. 1:58all, here's the big the big
55. 2:00announcement. Just a few hours ago,
56. 2:03robotaxi announced that they are
57. 2:05available in Fort Worth. This is a city
58. 2:08near Dallas in Texas starting tomorrow.
59. 2:10That's now. It's already happened. It's
60. 2:12already started.
61. 2:13It's actually quite a large geofence.
62. 2:16Surprisingly, they started off quite a
63. 2:18quite large. 143 square miles area,
64. 2:21about 20 miles west of its 81 square
65. 2:24mile Dallas zone. So, it's actually got
66. 2:26a larger square mile area than Dallas,
67. 2:29which is really weird.
68. 2:31But now, you combine the two, that's 224
69. 2:34square miles across
70. 2:37Dallas-Fort Worth, which is kind of this
71. 2:38region. Here's the airport here. Here's
72. 2:40Arlington. Now, they haven't said that
73. 2:43they're clearly not driving between the
74. 2:44two yet, but clearly that's where
75. 2:46they're going to go.
76. 2:48Thank you to robotaxi tracker for
77. 2:49explaining that. Um this is one of the
78. 2:52very first rides uh taken by What is
79. 2:55this? Is this Spencer? Yeah, taking it
80. 2:57>> in a robotaxi in Fort Worth.
81. 3:01Service just started. Super cool. No
82. 3:04driver. Look at that.
83. 3:06>> Well, what do you think about that,
84. 3:07Jeff? I mean, why why launch in a whole
85. 3:10new city and just go big right off the
86. 3:12bat?
87. 3:13>> Yeah, Fort Worth is a great city. I
88. 3:15spent a lot of time there, built the
89. 3:18entire factory,
90. 3:19employed thousands of people. If
91. 3:21robotaxis, cybercabs were available
92. 3:24back then, we would have been loading
93. 3:25them up with product and shipping it out
94. 3:28of uh
95. 3:29the factory for local distribution in
96. 3:31some cases. But, uh
97. 3:33anyway, it's This is a a perfect area.
98. 3:36It kind of mirrors what they've been
99. 3:37doing in some of the other local cities.
100. 3:40I think it [clears throat] makes sense.
101. 3:41This is the promise of Tesla's
102. 3:44approach
103. 3:45to scaling driverless, which is you can
104. 3:48start bringing up cities almost more so
105. 3:51autonomously.
106. 3:53Not sure we've seen a lot of testing
107. 3:55and a lot of work being done
108. 3:58here. So, it looks like they're able to
109. 4:00to bring up cities a little bit easier.
110. 4:02This wasn't on the planned list, which
111. 4:04tells me uh that they're getting a lot
112. 4:07more comfortable with the entire
113. 4:10operation and the performance of it. So,
114. 4:14we've seen the number of cars that have
115. 4:15been deployed. I was just looking up.
116. 4:19Again, this really isn't a race. There's
117. 4:21going to be multiple uh driverless
118. 4:24vendors, but I don't I don't think it's
119. 4:27going to be extremely close.
120. 4:30Uh Waymo started public rides in Texas,
121. 4:32I think, in March of 2025. I think they
122. 4:35were invite-only the prior
123. 4:38October, kind of like when Tesla started
124. 4:41in um in June of of 2025 and then went
125. 4:45public a little bit uh afterwards.
126. 4:48And uh so this isn't I I don't I
127. 4:50wouldn't say this is a huge uh race, per
128. 4:52se, cuz I think
129. 4:54Tesla's going to just from the economics
130. 4:55perspective, they're going to have
131. 4:57a lot more product out there, a lot more
132. 5:00quickly, and the cost structure is going
133. 5:02to come down, but, you know, they've got
134. 5:04to get the whole the whole system ramped
135. 5:06up. But, to me, this tells me they're
136. 5:07getting a lot more comfortable bringing
137. 5:09up cities uh in in a
138. 5:12I think this is more of the the future
139. 5:14of how they're going to do things, where
140. 5:15they're just going to they're going to
141. 5:17pop up and get started. We don't know
142. 5:18how many cars are out there, either, so
143. 5:21I
144. 5:21this could just be a couple of cars. I
145. 5:23think we should just keep that in mind,
146. 5:25but it's a good start.
147. 5:26>> Hey there. Thank you for joining me.
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157. 5:47Thank you very much. Let's get brighter.
158. 5:53>> Yeah, you were saying lots more cities.
159. 5:55This is now available in seven cities as
160. 5:57of November 2nd.
161. 5:59Uh you've got This is the full
162. 6:01unsupervised robotaxi service, just to
163. 6:03be clear. So, we're not counting
164. 6:04California.
165. 6:05The updated robotaxi geofence sizes in
166. 6:08square miles, Austin is 272. We know
167. 6:10that they're one of the largest.
168. 6:12Houston, 254. Fort Worth comes out and
169. 6:15it's already at 143. It's larger than
170. 6:17the all all the others, which is again,
171. 6:20I think it might mean that they have
172. 6:22more confidence in Texas for some reason
173. 6:25or yeah, this is just baffling that they
174. 6:27just went out and just went away
175. 6:30faster than the others without expanding
176. 6:32the others.
177. 6:33Um yeah, this is the sizes. I mean, you
178. 6:36know how Houston, they just added 10
179. 6:38times
180. 6:39uh the they just expanded its geofence
181. 6:4210x right away.
182. 6:43And then they added 124 new Model Ys
183. 6:47with the Texas DMV, now 631 initially.
184. 6:51So, they were at 1,204 vehicle fleet.
185. 6:55Um this is a few days ago, but then of
186. 6:57course, what did they do? They added 40
187. 6:59more uh yesterday. So, now they are
188. 7:021,244.
189. 7:05That's registered cars, but that's 15
190. 7:08behind Waymo's 1,259.
191. 7:11So, that is you know it, they're going
192. 7:13to go surpass Waymo any day now,
193. 7:15sometime probably this week if not next
194. 7:17week. They're really just what is that?
195. 7:2015 cars behind
196. 7:22Waymo now. And the fleet is 573.
197. 7:24Cybercab 671 Model Y. So, they added
198. 7:27more Model Ys. What do you think about
199. 7:28that, Jeff? Why why add Model Ys and
200. 7:30then
201. 7:31yeah, just the growth rate of 59 in one
202. 7:34day, pretty good.
203. 7:37>> Yeah, I think they've got
204. 7:39uh differing rollout plans for both.
205. 7:42There's a lot of confidence in the Model
206. 7:45Y, the training of it. Again, it's been
207. 7:46done on
208. 7:48a lot of miles of both the personal use
209. 7:52and and robotaxi. But, I think there is
210. 7:54going to be this crossover point really
211. 7:56soon. There's already been a crossover
212. 7:57point
213. 7:58in Austin with with the cybercab. So, I
214. 8:01think there'll be a crossover point soon
215. 8:03with
216. 8:04um with cybercab and and robotaxis. But,
217. 8:08I I think at some point we're going to
218. 8:10this these numbers are going to get so
219. 8:11big, you know, the the the movement
220. 8:13every day. It's just going to be like,
221. 8:15"Okay, here's more. Here's more. Here's
222. 8:16more." Especially when other cities and
223. 8:18states start
224. 8:20start coming online. Uh I think these
225. 8:22numbers are going to
226. 8:24be gigantic.
227. 8:25You know, we you heard Tesla talk about
228. 8:27how they're running the factory
229. 8:30for cybercab as well. And this this
230. 8:32allows them a lot of flexibility. It can
231. 8:35be a cost issue in the beginning, but
232. 8:38it does them allow them a lot of
233. 8:39flexibility to get the quality right, to
234. 8:42get the ramp above the operation to be
235. 8:44very highly controlled,
236. 8:46and uh you know, the quality in the
237. 8:48product uh to be in a really good shape.
238. 8:50So, I like what they're doing. I like
239. 8:52the approach.
240. 8:53Again, we we are in a much better
241. 8:56situation.
242. 8:58Uh we are
243. 9:00Tesla is scaling robotaxi, cybercab,
244. 9:03driverless service and can now arguably
245. 9:06faster than anything that's been scaled
246. 9:08before.
247. 9:09And they're they're doing it with
248. 9:12they're doing it because of the approach
249. 9:14they've taken with this end-to-end
250. 9:16neural net and their approach. This
251. 9:18isn't something where everything has to
252. 9:19be
253. 9:20mapped out perfectly and there's a lot
254. 9:22of heuristics involved where you can
255. 9:23have a a lot of single points of
256. 9:25failure. So,
257. 9:27you got to like the approach. You have
258. 9:29to like what they're doing. Uh it
259. 9:31doesn't match their original guidance
260. 9:34from maybe a year ago, but I think they
261. 9:36really understand now
262. 9:38both how to guide on miles,
263. 9:42into how to expand the service area, the
264. 9:44hours, and then eventually
265. 9:46geographically to other cities. I think
266. 9:49they've got a really good handle on this
267. 9:51now, and you want to knock on wood
268. 9:53that this is error-free and everybody
269. 9:55has safe uh reliable transportation, cuz
270. 9:57then it just
271. 9:59it'll grow like wildfire. And I think
272. 10:01the other thing as people take
273. 10:02robotaxis, they should continue to share
274. 10:05their experience, both good and bad, cuz
275. 10:07I think it helps uh Tesla, and also
276. 10:09helps with awareness of it.
277. 10:11>> Yeah, we're going to review the latest
278. 10:13safety data that came out that compares
279. 10:15Tesla and Waymo. And there's actually
280. 10:17more incidents, but we'll go through
281. 10:18each one of them.
282. 10:20It does look like that they're able to
283. 10:22add more and more faster and faster.
284. 10:25So, here's where we are currently are at
285. 10:27at this point. Tesla has in Texas 1,244
286. 10:31registered vehicles. 671 are Model Ys.
287. 10:35573 Cybertrucks. It is curious that they
288. 10:38added 40 more Model Ys. What's your
289. 10:40thinking there? Do you think that those
290. 10:41are the ones that are being deployed in
291. 10:43the new city, Fort Worth?
292. 10:46>> Yeah, likely. And I again, I think
293. 10:47they're going to need a percentage of
294. 10:49them that can
295. 10:51carry more than, you know, two
296. 10:52passengers.
297. 10:54So,
298. 10:55I I'm I'm not overly
299. 10:58um it doesn't really do too much. I I
300. 11:01again, I think they're going to start
301. 11:02new cities at least in the interim with
302. 11:05a Model Y robotaxis and then and then
303. 11:08bring in the Cybertrucks
304. 11:10uh when they think they're they're ready
305. 11:12for those.
306. 11:14>> Yeah.
307. 11:15Uh yeah, so they added more. We talked
308. 11:17about that already. This is Waymo right
309. 11:19here. 1,259.
310. 11:22Now, they added two to two days since
311. 11:24last ad. So, they just added a few days
312. 11:26ago as well. So, there it's a it's a bit
313. 11:28of a race, small one. But their fleet
314. 11:30composition is Jaguar I-Pace, 863 of
315. 11:33them. Those are the old vehicles that
316. 11:35has been um
317. 11:36discontinued by Jaguar. So, they swapped
318. 11:39them up, took them up into place. They
319. 11:41added the outfits. That's their most of
320. 11:43their vehicles. Now, they're also adding
321. 11:45the Zeekrs,
322. 11:46which is the
323. 11:48uh Chinese versions.
324. 11:50I don't know even how they they Is this
325. 11:52a legal, Joe? I mean, how do they get
326. 11:54the Zeekrs over here?
327. 11:56Did it pass before it squeaked through
328. 11:58the
329. 11:59moratorium?
330. 12:01>> I mean, they're paying the tariff
331. 12:03uh and
332. 12:04and these are
333. 12:06>> [clears throat]
334. 12:06>> these are not being sold
335. 12:08to consumers. The service is being sold.
336. 12:11So, Google may have um
337. 12:16received an
338. 12:17uh an exemption from the ITC
339. 12:19or another governing body uh related uh
340. 12:23to trade uh to get these in. And they're
341. 12:25And they're paying the tariff on them.
342. 12:27So,
343. 12:27>> Yep.
344. 12:28>> There And there's a fair amount of value
345. 12:30that's being added once they arrive in
346. 12:33the US. I don't believe these These are
347. 12:34not being built
348. 12:36with the Waymo driver modules on them
349. 12:39in China and being shipped over. They're
350. 12:41being shipped over
351. 12:43as as these vehicles are sold actually
352. 12:45in China. It's been in production
353. 12:48for a number of years. And then, I'm
354. 12:50sure there's a model for Waymo, but it
355. 12:51doesn't have
356. 12:52>> [clears throat]
357. 12:54>> the the driver module all the hardware
358. 12:55on them. So, then they're being
359. 12:57remanufactured. So, I think between the
360. 12:59remanufacturing
361. 13:01and the fact that they're not being sold
362. 13:02to consumers, that's how they're
363. 13:05they're getting around it at this point.
364. 13:06I don't think this is their permanent
365. 13:08solution. I think they're going with
366. 13:10uh Hyundai as well as an option. Those
367. 13:12will be built I I believe in the Georgia
368. 13:14factory.
369. 13:16So, yeah, they've got to they've got to
370. 13:18get domestic production going.
371. 13:20Essentially, they have to get this
372. 13:21production to be in line. So,
373. 13:24if it's it is Hyundai Ionics or if it is
374. 13:27another manufacturer, you know, that
375. 13:30that manufacturer can build product and
376. 13:32let it flow down the line
377. 13:34uh under their standard model. And then,
378. 13:36when they want to build with the Waymo
379. 13:37driver,
380. 13:38they just integrate it as part of the
381. 13:40production line versus it being
382. 13:42[clears throat] built and shipped out
383. 13:43and then remanufactured,
384. 13:45the cost structure is
385. 13:47enormous uh when when when that occur. I
386. 13:50mean, it's it's astronomical when
387. 13:53when you have to remanufacture something
388. 13:54of this complexity.
389. 13:56>> Yeah. Great information there, Jeff.
390. 13:58Thank you.
391. 13:59So, you know, this Robin says it was
392. 14:01always clear that Tesla would grow
393. 14:03quicker than Waymo, but it is now
394. 14:05finally starting to show. Tesla can
395. 14:06scale much quicker than Waymo, so this
396. 14:08is not a surprise. Waymo has a good head
397. 14:10start. So, the next important milestones
398. 14:12will be total miles and areas served.
399. 14:15And here's a good chart
400. 14:17that shows Tesla's robo-taxi kind of
401. 14:19catching up pretty quickly in just like
402. 14:22a month or two, several months here.
403. 14:25Uh as we said, they're 15 cars away, but
404. 14:27you can see how quickly this has uh
405. 14:29skyrocketed up. And then you can see
406. 14:31other companies like AV Ride and Zoox
407. 14:34and Nuro and May. They're all tiny
408. 14:36little numbers.
409. 14:38>> [clears throat]
410. 14:38>> Um the only one that's skyrocketing is
411. 14:40Tesla and it's catching up.
412. 14:43Yeah, it's rate of improvement, rate of
413. 14:45That's Those are registrations.
414. 14:47Now, Waymo isn't sitting still. They
415. 14:49have partnered with Toyota to add bZ4X
416. 14:52EVs, so those are Toyota's EVs, to its
417. 14:55robo-taxi fleet. So, they're just going
418. 14:56to partner with anybody, yeah?
419. 14:58And but of course, you know, this isn't
420. 15:00going to be in Japan and it won't start
421. 15:02operations till 2027.
422. 15:05Deployment to the UK and other Waymo
423. 15:07service markets planned for the
424. 15:09following years. So, this seems to be
425. 15:10their partner to go in the Asian market
426. 15:13and maybe Europe market as well.
427. 15:16What do you think about this? So, now
428. 15:17that you got Jaguar, you got Ohi,
429. 15:20which I think is Ohi
430. 15:22>> Zeekr.
431. 15:23>> Uh that's Zeekr, yeah. That's going to
432. 15:25say that's the one. That's the Zeekr
433. 15:26Ohi. That's the van, which is weird
434. 15:28again, a van. Then you got the Hyundai
435. 15:31Ioniq 5 which you were talking about.
436. 15:32Now they've added Toyota bZ4Xs. So,
437. 15:36just What is their strategy, Jeff? I
438. 15:38mean, just
439. 15:40>> I mean,
440. 15:41their strategy [clears throat] is to
441. 15:43uh progressively reduce their cost
442. 15:45structure and get greater scale, uh thin
443. 15:49out the operation, make it more
444. 15:51efficient. It's a question of what
445. 15:54what's the starting point and what does
446. 15:55it look like at scale.
447. 15:57Sometimes things
448. 15:59uh
449. 16:01even if you you attempt to take them to
450. 16:03massive scale, you don't really get the
451. 16:05kind of efficiencies
452. 16:07that give you the business you want.
453. 16:09This is
454. 16:10I if you
455. 16:11take away one thing from some of these
456. 16:13conversations, you have to have the
457. 16:15right unit economics on a sample size or
458. 16:18build unit of one.
459. 16:20And
460. 16:21>> [clears throat]
461. 16:21>> your first unit you build and ship out
462. 16:22the door is going to be negative gross
463. 16:24margin, but the question is what are
464. 16:27those economics?
465. 16:28And are they actually scalable
466. 16:30economics? And don't think for 1 minute
467. 16:34that companies the biggest companies in
468. 16:36the world
469. 16:38uh sometimes try to look past that or
470. 16:40think that they can just solve it with
471. 16:42more volume.
472. 16:44Um that's not always the case in in my
473. 16:47experience.
474. 16:48And you've got to get
475. 16:50you've got to design a system
476. 16:51[clears throat]
477. 16:52you have to design your unit economics
478. 16:54and plan them right uh from unit number
479. 16:58one at launch. So,
480. 17:00that's your strategy.
481. 17:02>> [clears throat]
482. 17:02>> We want multiple players. We want safe
483. 17:05driverless options. I think Waymo's now
484. 17:08reporting
485. 17:09uh up to 20 times uh safer driving than
486. 17:14than human driving. They're they're
487. 17:15continuing to improve as they get more
488. 17:18miles and as they make the the system
489. 17:20safer. So, as a collective society in
490. 17:23the world, we want actually more Waymos
491. 17:27out there. We want more Teslas as Teslas
492. 17:29get
493. 17:30>> [clears throat]
494. 17:30>> safer and they will approach that and
495. 17:32probably surpass
496. 17:33that level of safety. So, we want
497. 17:36multiple players. We want governments.
498. 17:37We want regulatory
499. 17:39we want the the human population to be
500. 17:42comfortable that
501. 17:44machines and computers driving
502. 17:47will do a better job,
503. 17:49>> [clears throat]
504. 17:49>> more efficient, and most importantly
505. 17:51more safely. Like you're going to your
506. 17:52family you and your family are going to
507. 17:54be home
508. 17:55safe by using this transportation versus
509. 17:59you know, the hundreds of thousands of
510. 18:01people in the US that are injured
511. 18:03seriously injured every year and
512. 18:05you know, the 40 plus thousand that
513. 18:08uh
514. 18:08are killed by car accidents. So,
515. 18:12we want this. And so, we we want Waymo
516. 18:14to do better and I think they're leading
517. 18:16the charge
518. 18:17uh on from a regulatory perspective as
519. 18:20well in clearing through things. So,
520. 18:23let's see let's see what happens, but
521. 18:25again, don't discount the fact that you
522. 18:28have to get the the economics right
523. 18:30from day one. Scale does not solve
524. 18:32everything.
525. 18:33>> Yeah, it's not solving everything. We'll
526. 18:35see.
527. 18:36Uh we will do a deeper dive just shortly
528. 18:38here on the safety record that is so
529. 18:40critical. And yes, Waymo's doing very
530. 18:42well, so is Tesla. We'll see compare
531. 18:45them head-to-head new latest data that
532. 18:46came out.
533. 18:48So, looks like the cyber cab uh Tesla's
534. 18:50going to expand the Austin service.
535. 18:52There's more cyber cab showing up more
536. 18:54and more outside of the Tesla Austin
537. 18:56service area. On Southwest Austin
538. 18:58traffic cameras outside the boundary one
539. 19:00sighting the week of September 28th last
540. 19:02week.
541. 19:04Uh oh, I didn't see I didn't catch it
542. 19:06with the the rest of his post was, but
543. 19:08you can see here that uh there is a lot
544. 19:10of sightings outside of Oh, here it is.
545. 19:14Uh 33 sightings the week of 2026. One
546. 19:17sighting the week of 28th, but 33
547. 19:20sightings the week of 26. So, it seems
548. 19:22like they're not just uh you know, a lot
549. 19:24of pouring outside of the service area.
550. 19:26They are doing more and more. So, that's
551. 19:28a good sign that
552. 19:29they're about to expand even further in
553. 19:32the Austin area.
554. 19:33All right.
555. 19:34Uh robotaxi service now 2:00 a.m. I
556. 19:37mean, it's just coming. They went from
557. 19:3912:00 p.m.
558. 19:41midnight, then they went to 1:00 a.m.,
559. 19:43and now they're 2:00 a.m. They're just
560. 19:44getting closer and closer to 24-hour
561. 19:46operation. They got shocked said that
562. 19:48this is uh significant because the 2:00
563. 19:50a.m. is normally bar closing time, so
564. 19:53people are drunk. It's a good time to be
565. 19:55there.
566. 19:56Uh trip the And then other updates uh
567. 19:58because of the robotaxi app, you can now
568. 20:00share your trip details with your
569. 20:02friends. You can now see the rearview
570. 20:04camera feed. So, now you can actually
571. 20:06look backwards, which is nice. There's a
572. 20:08calm mode. She set that up. All the
573. 20:10lightings and everything that the screen
574. 20:12dims. You don't want to go to sleep.
575. 20:14Relaxation state.
576. 20:15Now Grok's available Model Y robotaxi.
577. 20:19And then a bunch of other accessibility
578. 20:21improvements as well.
579. 20:24>> Yeah, just imagine this experience.
580. 20:26You're
581. 20:27you're leaving someplace late and this
582. 20:30vehicle pulls up.
583. 20:32There's nobody
584. 20:34nobody inside. There's nobody to deal
585. 20:35with, nobody to talk to.
586. 20:37Uh it's consistent. It's clean.
587. 20:40It's super high-tech.
588. 20:42And it gets you from point A to point B
589. 20:45very safely. This is I mean this is
590. 20:47great. And yeah, I mean we want we want
591. 20:49them to extend the service
592. 20:5124 hours. This we want to This is where
593. 20:54a lot of accidents are actually
594. 20:55occurring
595. 20:56is in the overnight hours and and bad
596. 20:58decisions
597. 21:00are being made
598. 21:01uh by people. So, this is all great to
599. 21:05see. I want to just remind people that
600. 21:07are just they're uncertain about how
601. 21:10this is
602. 21:11is going to scale. If you've been a
603. 21:13long-time Tesla owner, you can remember
604. 21:16a couple of things. One was your
605. 21:17purchase experience
606. 21:19and how it may have changed over the
607. 21:21years. The sec- second thing you can
608. 21:23remember you probably deal with every
609. 21:24year is your service experience as
610. 21:26you're taking your car in for
611. 21:28tire changes or or whatever service is
612. 21:31needed.
613. 21:32And look how that has evolved over just
614. 21:34a few years. Right now,
615. 21:37if you if you go to service with your
616. 21:38Tesla, you step out of the vehicle and
617. 21:40you step in a new one basically in under
618. 21:42a minute.
619. 21:44And it's got all your settings in the
620. 21:45vehicle. Everything's ready to go. The
621. 21:48The app appears the vehicle appears in
622. 21:50your app. Everything's Everything is
623. 21:52just done.
624. 21:53So, now apply that
625. 21:55mode of operation where Tesla is
626. 21:57constantly reducing steps, reducing
627. 21:59cycle time, reducing the involvement of
628. 22:02people. Now, apply that same logic to
629. 22:04what they're going to do to bring up
630. 22:05cities more autonomously. And that's
631. 22:08what you heard Ashok say is we want city
632. 22:11bring up to to to nearly to be
633. 22:13autonomous where the fleet can just
634. 22:16drive to and and and set up in a
635. 22:19particular city and and go. And that's
636. 22:23what this is converging on. How long
637. 22:25that's going to take?
638. 22:27I think they're making progress on it
639. 22:29every day, but just know that
640. 22:31the long term of this is to is to
641. 22:34actually replicate faster than what
642. 22:36they're doing today. This is not Tesla
643. 22:39speed yet in terms of ramp up. This is
644. 22:42still very slow, methodical, careful,
645. 22:45and a lot of this is again purposeful
646. 22:47until they get this V15 out with all
647. 22:50these edge cases, until they get through
648. 22:52a bulk of the regulatory as well.
649. 22:54>> Mhm.
650. 22:55We're going to look at um where we think
651. 22:57they're going to expand to next.
652. 23:00And um
653. 23:02looking at job hirings,
654. 23:04>> [clears throat]
655. 23:04>> robotaxi operations manager in
656. 23:06Scottsdale, Arizona.
657. 23:09Okay?
658. 23:10That's one in Scottsdale.
659. 23:12And then they're hiring self-driving
660. 23:14data collection supervisors in 37 US
661. 23:17cities across 20 states, up from 26
662. 23:20cities in 12 states a week ago. Okay, so
663. 23:22this is
664. 23:24Really? I thought it was much I thought
665. 23:26it was 37 cities already. Okay, well.
666. 23:30>> [clears throat]
667. 23:30>> The latest
668. 23:32listings include Louisville, Cincinnati,
669. 23:35Columbus, Oklahoma. These are new
670. 23:37cities. Draper, Kentucky, Virginia
671. 23:39joining the map for the first time.
672. 23:41Each supervisor runs a team of operators
673. 23:44with weekly data collection targets. I
674. 23:46think maybe these are the supervisors
675. 23:48he's referring to cuz we've known
676. 23:49operators were hired in multiple like 37
677. 23:52plus cities. So now
678. 23:54they're just ramping it up.
679. 23:56Yeah.
680. 23:57Four locations.
681. 23:59Yeah. What do what what do you know
682. 24:00about these different um job
683. 24:02descriptions?
684. 24:04>> This looks like the team that goes in
685. 24:07to drive through a city and mark
686. 24:12areas that could be problematic or
687. 24:14challenging that need
688. 24:17a double click, where there could be a
689. 24:19particular kind of railroad crossing and
690. 24:21how it's marked or a particular
691. 24:23difficult intersection.
692. 24:26So, I mean at some point I believe they
693. 24:29will automate this task. Where a couple
694. 24:32of cars, let's say that you know, the
695. 24:34Fort Worth example,
696. 24:35a couple of cars that let's say Tesla
697. 24:37decides are ready to launch in Fort
698. 24:39Worth, a couple of cybercabs peel off
699. 24:42from
700. 24:43Dallas and start driving instead of uh
701. 24:46they're they're autonomous and they go
702. 24:47through and they they they very
703. 24:50they go at probably a very slow rate
704. 24:52and they they look for these areas and
705. 24:55then they mark them themselves. I I'd
706. 24:57have to imagine that Tesla's working on
707. 25:00that in the interim.
708. 25:01You have humans doing this and humans
709. 25:04are probably training what eventually in
710. 25:07AI will do to do this map. Ever all of
711. 25:09this is going to be
712. 25:11self-replicating
713. 25:13uh self-controlled
714. 25:15uh or ramp uh
715. 25:17automated. It's going to be automated.
716. 25:20It's that's the direction it's going.
717. 25:21But in the interim,
718. 25:22you do this hiring and knowing that if
719. 25:25you've got a move them onto something
720. 25:27else or you have to dismiss them, you
721. 25:28you have the
722. 25:30ability to do that. But I believe that's
723. 25:31where this is going. But in the interim,
724. 25:33they they've got to get this This is the
725. 25:34advanced team I think that goes in and
726. 25:36drives around.
727. 25:38>> I think he uh Ashok said that at one
728. 25:39point we'll get to near zero or uh
729. 25:43um
730. 25:43implementation. Like they can launch a
731. 25:45city.
732. 25:46Right. And do you remember his exact
733. 25:47words? Something like
734. 25:50Like you don't have to wait months to
735. 25:52train it. You just launch launch launch.
736. 25:54Yeah, automated like he said.
737. 25:56So, if you look at this chart, thank you
738. 25:59to Tesla Zoa to creating it,
739. 26:02and [clears throat] this is the current
740. 26:03service areas, right? Texas, Florida,
741. 26:07California. And here's the next likely
742. 26:09markets: Las Vegas, Phoenix, San
743. 26:11Antonio, Jacksonville. Those were the
744. 26:12ones mentioned and written on the
745. 26:14earnings call. Additional markets: Fort
746. 26:17Worth, which by the way just launched.
747. 26:20Corpus Christi, Tucson,
748. 26:23Chicago, by the way.
749. 26:25Really? Chicago? Oh, dude. You're going
750. 26:27to get Atlanta, Nashville.
751. 26:29You're next.
752. 26:32>> Yeah.
753. 26:32>> See that why why Fort Worth? I guess
754. 26:35Fort Worth because it's Texas instead of
755. 26:38Las Vegas or Phoenix. Are these are the
756. 26:40four that they mentioned and then yet
757. 26:42they launched in Fort Worth. Do you do
758. 26:44you know what I mean? Like why didn't
759. 26:45they say Fort Worth? Or is it a small
760. 26:47market?
761. 26:47>> look, here's what's happening.
762. 26:49They they have Austin, Dallas, Houston.
763. 26:53And there's a lot of heavy lifting in
764. 26:55the beginning to get these things going
765. 26:57and they probably got pretty big and
766. 26:58broad teams doing that. And then as
767. 27:01these cities are stabilizing, they're
768. 27:02peeling people off and saying, all
769. 27:04right, you're
770. 27:05you you've got us going in Dallas, we'll
771. 27:07just can you drive a couple miles over
772. 27:09and help us get started in Fort Worth.
773. 27:12And and that that would be to me and
774. 27:15less of a stretch for Tesla to do Fort
775. 27:17Worth
776. 27:18than to do a completely different city.
777. 27:20So they may be in the process of hiring
778. 27:22uh in Las Vegas. Remember, they just got
779. 27:25this permit there as well. So but I I
780. 27:27think it's coming. I
781. 27:29it's just a matter of
782. 27:31is it next month? Is it 2 weeks from
783. 27:33now? I mean I think but I think it's
784. 27:35coming but
785. 27:36Fort Worth from Dallas seems pretty
786. 27:38logical to me.
787. 27:40>> Yeah, that was going to be what I was
788. 27:41going to say next, which is what makes
789. 27:43sense actually is just make it all of it
790. 27:46because they just launched uh last week
791. 27:48the highway driving.
792. 27:50So
793. 27:51they launched it last week highway
794. 27:53driving. So guess what they're going to
795. 27:54do now? Is they're going to just go
796. 27:55ahead and do Arlington, Irving, Dallas,
797. 27:58and Fort Worth. And then just combine
798. 28:01the whole thing as a Dallas geofence.
799. 28:04Uh you know, Austin geofence, just
800. 28:06connect everything together.
801. 28:09That could make sense cuz they're hiring
802. 28:11in Arlington, Irving, Dallas, and Fort
803. 28:13Worth right now for robo taxi
804. 28:15attendants.
805. 28:18Wouldn't that be great?
806. 28:19That could be the first test,
807. 28:21city-to-city driving.
808. 28:25Okay, uh let's go to the actual latest
809. 28:27data that was dropped uh from NHTSA
810. 28:31about the actual event. Sorry about the
811. 28:33um the small writing here.
812. 28:35These are the
813. 28:37autonomous vehicle incident logs for
814. 28:39Austin, Texas. Here's where Tesla's
815. 28:41robotaxi and Waymo's incident reports in
816. 28:44October.
817. 28:45So, there were 20 reports of incidents.
818. 28:49Tesla had eight.
819. 28:50Waymo had 12. Zero collisions for
820. 28:53either.
821. 28:54Tesla's eight is its highest month in
822. 28:56yet in Austin, up from five in
823. 28:57September.
824. 28:59About six of the 20 were logged by
825. 29:01Austin Police Department during the ACL
826. 29:03Fest weekends.
827. 29:07Uh so, a green is nuisance, no road
828. 29:10risk. A yellow is traffic or operational
829. 29:12issue, and a red is they put
830. 29:14pedestrians, kids, or first responders
831. 29:16at risk.
832. 29:17So, here are Tesla's eight reports.
833. 29:20A green empty robotaxi cut through a
834. 29:22private HOA
835. 29:25alley.
836. 29:26Okay.
837. 29:28Uh a bunch of yellows.
838. 29:30These are traffic or operational issues.
839. 29:33A Cybertruck stuck off-land with its
840. 29:35doors open. Three Cybertrucks block
841. 29:38Lamar near to me trying to U-turn in
842. 29:40heavy traffic. Cybertruck drove into
843. 29:42West Riverside Drive construction
844. 29:45closure. Okay, that seems pretty
845. 29:47uh concerning.
846. 29:49Daily second street gridlock from
847. 29:51Tesla's Waymos.
848. 29:53So, just they're just nuisance or
849. 29:55operate traffic or operational issues.
850. 29:57And then the two red ones, they put
851. 29:59pedestrians, kids, or first responders
852. 30:01at risk. A line of 10 to 12 gold
853. 30:03robotaxis didn't yield to
854. 30:06a uh fire department truck, Austin Fire
855. 30:08Department truck, running lights and
856. 30:10siren. Then passed its scene too fast.
857. 30:12Mm.
858. 30:13Uh stopped past the stop line into the
859. 30:15Barton Springs crosswalk and tried to
860. 30:17back up while pedestrians crossed. Mm.
861. 30:20Officers blocked it front and back. Ooh.
862. 30:24Thoughts on these incidents?
863. 30:27>> I mean, starting from the the bottom one
864. 30:29and, you know,
865. 30:30it stopped
866. 30:32and it's probably trying to inch in one
867. 30:35direction or another safely.
868. 30:37People don't know
869. 30:38these things yet. They don't
870. 30:41They don't trust them.
871. 30:43No matter who makes them. So, if they
872. 30:44see this thing inching back as people
873. 30:46are going through the crosswalk, I can
874. 30:47see why the
875. 30:49the police officer may have have stepped
876. 30:51in front of it.
877. 30:52So, these are the kind of things that
878. 30:54you know, Tesla's going to get these
879. 30:55reports and they're going to have to
880. 30:57pull up the data
881. 30:58on these and then figure out how to how
882. 31:01to take action.
883. 31:03Uh not yielding.
884. 31:05Um it was it I mean, was it one of the
885. 31:09of the 10
886. 31:09>> 10 to 10 to 12 of them.
887. 31:11Because there's a whole line of them.
888. 31:13Yeah, they got stuck, I think.
889. 31:15>> Yeah, I'm just
890. 31:17uh just wondering.
891. 31:20Um
892. 31:21Yeah, they've got to react. I mean, my
893. 31:23car pulls over every time
894. 31:25>> It does, yeah.
895. 31:26>> there's a siren and and a set of lights.
896. 31:29Um but, you know, it's got to also gauge
897. 31:31are you on the other side of the street?
898. 31:34And the truck is with a siren to the
899. 31:36other side of the street is in the same
900. 31:37direction as you're going and you have
901. 31:39to pull over.
902. 31:40So, it's hard to speculate. Tesla will
903. 31:42get the They will get the timestamps.
904. 31:43They will get the data. They will pull
905. 31:45the video.
906. 31:46They will pull the logs and they will
907. 31:48get the root cause on these. That's
908. 31:50that's the That's their video.
909. 31:52>> For Waymo, they had 12 reports. Two
910. 31:54green ones, uh three green ones,
911. 31:57what is a five yellows and then here's
912. 31:59the red ones. Um missed officer hand
913. 32:02signals installed mid intersection.
914. 32:04Why went through the Show Creek
915. 32:06mid-block crosswalk without slowing for
916. 32:08a pedestrian. Hmm.
917. 32:10Pulled into the opposing lane around
918. 32:12stopped cars while an officer held
919. 32:14traffic for kids.
920. 32:16Pulled into the opposing lane. My gosh.
921. 32:20I mean,
922. 32:21so, yeah, it is not a clean comparison
923. 32:24because obviously they have, you know,
924. 32:25different levels of cars and you don't
925. 32:27know how many are out there.
926. 32:28But, still good to compare the most
927. 32:30locally verified fleet size data to
928. 32:31incidents. There's no collisions. Both
929. 32:33of Teslas
930. 32:35involve reading police and first
931. 32:37responders. Waymos lean toward
932. 32:38pedestrians and schools.
933. 32:40No collisions, yeah. City data on
934. 32:42verified complaints with no fault that
935. 32:44determined. The data is when the city
936. 32:45logged a report.
937. 32:47Yeah.
938. 32:48>> So, how many millions of miles are were
939. 32:50driven
940. 32:51and how many accidents would have
941. 32:53happened, serious and deadly?
942. 32:55And I would trade
943. 32:57all of those incidents, uh meaning I
944. 33:00wouldn't trade, I should say. I wouldn't
945. 33:01trade those incidents
946. 33:03for
947. 33:05>> Yeah.
948. 33:05>> I should I should we say that.
949. 33:07If If it will eliminate death and
950. 33:10serious injury,
951. 33:11so be it. Obviously, you want both
952. 33:13companies to work and and solve these
953. 33:15issues. If it's entering a crosswalk or
954. 33:18doing this or that, these are things you
955. 33:19want to solve.
956. 33:21But, if you've literally brought people
957. 33:23back home to the dinner table that would
958. 33:25not have been there,
959. 33:27I think it's worth it.
960. 33:28>> Yeah.
961. 33:29Uh I was going to say that every single
962. 33:31one of this humans do this all the time.
963. 33:34This is normal. You know, you're you're
964. 33:36you're You think you're you're doing You
965. 33:37see a bunch, you know, it's like a lot
966. 33:38of tri- like pe- pedestrians and then
967. 33:40you're going to go Oh, sorry, I got to
968. 33:42go back. But, then there's people behind
969. 33:43you, so you it's kind of stop. And I
970. 33:44mean, this has happened to all of us.
971. 33:46>> It's happened.
972. 33:48Uh
973. 33:48last thing is about Tesla. And right
974. 33:51[clears throat] now, this post here does
975. 33:52not mention Tesla. Expected profit
976. 33:54growth in the next 4 years. He's trying
977. 33:56to point out that, boy, SpaceX is 8,000%
978. 33:59profit growth next 4 years. Then you got
979. 34:00Marvel, AMD, ARM, Palantir, Broadcom.
980. 34:05List goes down.
981. 34:06TSMC, Microsoft, Nvidia, of course.
982. 34:10Meta, Amazon, the Magnificent
983. 34:12Based on expected 4-year net income
984. 34:14growth includes current fiscal year.
985. 34:17Elon replied to that saying, "Tesla will
986. 34:19be very high, also."
987. 34:21So, we see
988. 34:23>> [laughter]
989. 34:24>> hasn't forgotten about us.
990. 34:27>> Yeah. I mean, Tesla has has a Nobody
991. 34:32should be complaining, I think, at this
992. 34:33point
993. 34:34about Tesla's valuation relative to its
994. 34:37actual earnings.
995. 34:39Question is is in the future. I mean,
996. 34:40you look at a company like Micron and
997. 34:43you look at the earnings they're putting
998. 34:44up yet the multiples is continuing to be
999. 34:48compressed.
1000. 34:49So, I don't think anybody should
1001. 34:50necessarily take anything to the bank
1002. 34:53that the market is going to
1003. 34:56all of a sudden
1004. 34:58correctly
1005. 35:00assess
1006. 35:01uh where Tesla or SpaceX are even as
1007. 35:04their earnings grow. So, just I think
1008. 35:06people need to understand both sides of
1009. 35:07this. Right now, we've been in this
1010. 35:09world of a very high forward multiple
1011. 35:12and getting all the credit in the world
1012. 35:14uh without the earnings growth yet. So,
1013. 35:18if the market continues doing that and
1014. 35:21you have the earnings growth, then
1015. 35:22you're going to have those two together.
1016. 35:24You're going to have uh a wonderful
1017. 35:26stock price. But, just don't discount
1018. 35:29how
1019. 35:30uh
1020. 35:32how the market can be uh on the other
1021. 35:35side of that, too, where you have
1022. 35:36tremendous earnings growth and you're
1023. 35:38not getting the credit. Look at
1024. 35:39Micron. Look at SK Hynix.
1025. 35:42Look at some of these other companies. I
1026. 35:43know they're different companies. I know
1027. 35:44they're just making memory. I'm very
1028. 35:46familiar with that. But, these companies
1029. 35:49have fairly significant moats over the
1030. 35:51next 5 years or more and they're not
1031. 35:54getting the credit. So, there's two
1032. 35:56sides of it. Um but
1033. 35:59I think Elon's focused on the right
1034. 36:01thing and the products they're making
1035. 36:05which is different than memory are
1036. 36:07honestly going to be unmatched and
1037. 36:09probably not have any significant
1038. 36:11competition relative
1039. 36:12uh to them that that that is equivalent.
1040. 36:15Versus right now, there's
1041. 36:17four or five memory vendors you can go
1042. 36:19to and get and get product.
1043. 36:22>> Yeah, the that post was about profit
1044. 36:24growth and this is why, you know, the
1045. 36:26whole I put in the end of the whole
1046. 36:28robotaxi rollout plan because if
1047. 36:30robotaxi continues at its rate and it
1048. 36:32actually truly does go wide
1049. 36:35profit, profit, profit. This is it. I
1050. 36:38mean, this is design for profit. Uh
1051. 36:40cybercabs, robotaxi, subscriptions, all
1052. 36:43that.
1053. 36:47We'll see.
1054. 36:48Thank you so much, Jeff. Check him out.
1055. 36:49Go to his X account at the Jeff Lotts.
1056. 36:53Thanks, everybody.
1057. 36:54>> Thank you.
1058. 36:55>> Hey there. Thank you for joining me.
1059. 36:56I've built a website that is the most
1060. 36:58comprehensive resource for the Tesla and
1061. 37:00SpaceX investor. Please check it out.
1062. 37:02Simply go to brighterfinance.com.
1063. 37:05Thank you very much. Let's get brighter.
1064. 37:06[music]