YouTube transcript (tByaPnk3fc4) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Good morning folks. How are you? Hope
2. 0:01you're doing well. Hope you're doing
3. 0:03well.
4. 0:05All right. So, obviously we've had a
5. 0:08enormous rally off of FOMC.
6. 0:13Uh this is
7. 0:16last week where I said that I thought
8. 0:18that the low for last week was in.
9. 0:22We had an enormous rally up.
10. 0:26There's a couple places in price action
11. 0:28I want you to be aware of that I'm
12. 0:30monitoring
13. 0:39yesterday. We just bumped
14. 0:44that high right there.
15. 0:47And still I think this is a little too
16. 0:50smooth. So while this was
17. 0:54look at the high
18. 0:5730,62 half
19. 1:0530,74 even
20. 1:07so
21. 1:09just just barely above it. But I'm
22. 1:12looking at it like this.
23. 1:18Okay.
24. 1:19And
25. 1:21we've had basically 1 2 3 four days in a
26. 1:25row. Now we're having one day back and
27. 1:29we're starting today softer. I I don't
28. 1:32think we're going to leave today on a
29. 1:35down close. I think we're going to try
30. 1:36to make an attempt to continue going
31. 1:39higher. It's normal for it to have a
32. 1:41little bit of a break rallying so hard.
33. 1:46So we have a volume imbalance here.
34. 1:50up to yesterday's low.
35. 1:54So there's our range for daily
36. 1:56inefficiency.
37. 1:58And we have this area right over here.
38. 2:02Notice there's no volume imbalance.
39. 2:04So no volume imbalance there.
40. 2:11So we have this to the volume imbalance
41. 2:14low there.
42. 2:16So, we're now just bumping up against
43. 2:27reversion fair value gap here and it's
44. 2:29an old high.
45. 2:32Okay. So, [sighs]
46. 2:35looking to the left because there's a
47. 2:36gap.
48. 2:39We have this wick here. So, one of the
49. 2:41things I would want to see it do
50. 2:46is to overcome this wick
51. 2:51with this
52. 2:59as I've taught
53. 3:02pretty extensively with uh
54. 3:07forex and and futures trading.
55. 3:11If you're brand new,
56. 3:13non-farm payroll weeks, the best price
57. 3:16action, the cleanest price action is
58. 3:19going to be on the Monday, Tuesday, and
59. 3:22Wednesday up to around 11:00 in the
60. 3:23morning. If you're brand new, very low
61. 3:26experience. Um, and it's not weakness to
62. 3:29admit that. It's actually maturity and
63. 3:33being responsible.
64. 3:35Everybody wants to be the the
65. 3:37professional. They want to they want to
66. 3:39know everything or assume they know
67. 3:41everything when they first start or they
68. 3:44want to participate in every possible
69. 3:46move and it's not realistic.
70. 3:49But
71. 3:52see here, we just drop sharply down into
72. 3:56that.
73. 3:58And I want to delineate the 7:00
74. 4:05time we just entered and then up to 9.
75. 4:13So, inside this little area in here,
76. 4:17we're going to drop down to one minute
77. 4:18chart.
78. 4:24So, here we have our little
79. 4:28premarket session time.
80. 4:32All right. And I'm going to move this
81. 4:34over just a little bit. And there is a
82. 4:36gap right there. A suspension block.
83. 4:42I like that.
84. 4:46I'm going to go long in there.
85. 4:50You see this wick?
86. 4:52If you look at what basically half that
87. 4:55wick is, it's it's the high of that
88. 4:57inversion fair value. You got this
89. 4:58highlighted again, you can see it's not
90. 5:01market replay, folks.
91. 5:04No need for that. Okay.
92. 5:08All right. So I'm entering exactly at
93. 5:10the consequent encouragement of this gap
94. 5:14right here after we hit
95. 5:17the inversion clear bag gap on the daily
96. 5:20chart. So it's reasonable to anticipate
97. 5:22a pop especially after it drops real
98. 5:25quick. So, it was in a hurry to get
99. 5:27here.
100. 5:28And
101. 5:30these relative equal highs and these
102. 5:32relative equal highs. And then remember
103. 5:34I showed you
104. 5:37that level is
105. 5:40the wick I want to see price get above
106. 5:43on the daily chart. Okay. Rewind the
107. 5:45video for a couple seconds and you'll
108. 5:47see again what that level is.
109. 5:50All right. So, I tweeted also that uh a
110. 5:54level I want to see
111. 5:56until we get through non-farm payrolls
112. 5:59week. Uh we have today and tomorrow for
113. 6:02that.
114. 6:04If we scrub back,
115. 6:10you can see they've left couple areas
116. 6:12there smooth that area like that.
117. 6:22like that. Look how much energy was
118. 6:25shown after creating these relative
119. 6:27equal highs. So
120. 6:33I like this for
121. 6:35uh non-farm payroll.
122. 6:44We'll use that right there. So that's
123. 6:46that
124. 6:48I tweeted that one. That's an area I'm
125. 6:51interested in. So when I'm tweeting on a
126. 6:53level, I want to see something
127. 6:55technically align with that
128. 7:01and and
129. 7:05got caught up in my dialogue. I didn't
130. 7:08even set the stop loss. Started to talk
131. 7:09about it. I don't know if you can tell.
132. 7:11I just got up about 15 minutes ago, fed
133. 7:14the pups and that's it. But I was
134. 7:16telling you about this wick. See how
135. 7:17it's basically consequent encroachment
136. 7:19is the top of that inversion fair value
137. 7:20gap. So the stop loss has to start and
138. 7:23open up on a trade just right at that
139. 7:26level and under. Okay.
140. 7:29So there you go. [snorts] Apologize.
141. 7:34So initially we're going to look for a
142. 7:36run into this relative equal high
143. 7:40and we want to see price now also is
144. 7:43like a threshold. Think of it like a a
145. 7:45ladder. Now don't think in terms of
146. 7:47depth of market like a ladder like that
147. 7:50but think of it like this. We have this
148. 7:52big vertical decline in one single
149. 7:56candle.
150. 7:58So that high that low which is the
151. 8:02highest point of that inefficiency to
152. 8:03this volume of balance low right there.
153. 8:07We want to see price show a willingness
154. 8:09to get above this midpoint level
155. 8:12and start laying bodies above that.
156. 8:14Okay? And you can add, if you want to be
157. 8:17very
158. 8:19like purist, if you will,
159. 8:23you can add all of the levels that's
160. 8:25been given to you for grading.
161. 8:31That one,
162. 8:36and there it is. Okay. So now you can
163. 8:40watch inside of this range on a one
164. 8:43minute chart.
165. 8:45You can watch how price is utilizing
166. 8:49these levels. And I'll
167. 8:54put a limit order just to get a one
168. 8:57contract off right above there.
169. 9:01So I'll sell
170. 9:06one
171. 9:10there.
172. 9:14Right. So,
173. 9:18notice how we're getting that nice
174. 9:19little pop here.
175. 9:22So, I went outside trying to feed the
176. 9:25deer a banana. She had a a baby with
177. 9:29her. I was trying to cook. So, usually I
178. 9:31can call them over to me and they'll get
179. 9:34real close and eat whatever I toss out
180. 9:36there like fruit and whatever.
181. 9:39So, I spent a little bit more time than
182. 9:40I should have. I could I could have been
183. 9:42in here with this, but that's okay. I
184. 9:44mean, you see how fast we're we're
185. 9:45getting in here now. Look at that line
186. 9:47right there. See how we're above it?
187. 9:50That bodess well. Okay. So, what I can
188. 9:53do now is wait to see this candlestick
189. 9:56close above halfway. Then I can roll the
190. 9:59stop up from here up just below these
191. 10:02lows right there.
192. 10:11We want to see it overlap all of this
193. 10:13decline and rip above here and then stay
194. 10:16above it because then the next order of
195. 10:18business would be looking at the order
196. 10:20flow relative to these relative equal
197. 10:23highs.
198. 10:27All right. So now I can roll the stop
199. 10:29up.
200. 10:32How easy that is.
201. 10:34Easy peasy lemon squeezy.
202. 10:40Okay. I always like to look for
203. 10:44when the market's like really suppressed
204. 10:46or had like a blowoff move to the upside
205. 10:49and then it reaches into a nice key
206. 10:51daily level as I indicated at the
207. 10:53beginning of this recording here. Um
208. 10:57we're seeing that there. So this was a
209. 10:59massive decline.
210. 11:01It gets everybody excited. Oh, it's
211. 11:03going to be a big bearish day and
212. 11:07we're already coming back this
213. 11:09aggressive. Okay, so just think for a
214. 11:11moment. I teach my students to do this.
215. 11:15If we were to assume
216. 11:18we were part of the shorts here, okay,
217. 11:22say you was one that went short and you
218. 11:25have your stop loss just above that
219. 11:26high. How
220. 11:29safe are you feeling right now?
221. 11:34where we're at right now. How fast we
222. 11:35come off of that daily inversion fair
223. 11:38bay gap. We supported price here with
224. 11:40this and it ripped higher.
225. 11:44Looks like it's trying to get somewhere,
226. 11:45doesn't it? When the market shows
227. 11:48willingness to to keep running like
228. 11:50that, it's going for liquidity. Okay.
229. 11:54And these are the last
230. 11:58of the bears that just came in and they
231. 12:01were rewarded.
232. 12:03Sometimes you can be offside and have a
233. 12:06short-lived moment of
234. 12:09unrealized profitability.
235. 12:11The problem is is many times it's not
236. 12:14recognized by the individuals while
237. 12:16they're in the trade that they should
238. 12:17have collapsed
239. 12:20and took profits.
240. 12:22So now again, we're watching this line
241. 12:24in here.
242. 12:28We want to see the willingness of price
243. 12:29to want to stay above that.
244. 12:32Okay. And I'm going to actually roll the
245. 12:34stop just to cover commissions.
246. 12:40How about do it and give me a pizza
247. 12:42dinner for the gang?
248. 12:48I don't eat pizza anymore. Just I'd like
249. 12:50to toss it out there just for dialogue.
250. 13:26keeping with the conversation I was
251. 13:29bringing up earlier.
252. 13:32If you're new to my channel, if you're
253. 13:34new to me, if you if you're not familiar
254. 13:36with with the things I teach or the
255. 13:38conceptual ideas around days of the
256. 13:40week, weeks of the month, specific
257. 13:43months of the year, u there's a there's
258. 13:46a rhyme and reason as to why I I believe
259. 13:49certain things should happen or should
260. 13:51not happen in price.
261. 13:54And non-farm payroll is a report that
262. 13:56comes out usually the first week of
263. 13:58every month and it's the Friday that
264. 14:01they release the
265. 14:03nonfarm nonfarm numbers in the United
266. 14:07States and it's a widely traded. It used
267. 14:11to be really um
268. 14:14something that intraday traders and
269. 14:16short-term traders would really like to
270. 14:18gamble on. Um over the years I've seen
271. 14:21that the data really isn't trustworthy.
272. 14:23Not that I ever really cared about the
273. 14:24numbers themselves. Uh it's the
274. 14:27invitation
275. 14:28of a wonderful day of anticipation
276. 14:34expecting large volatility that's timed
277. 14:37right at 8:30 on on nonpart non-farm
278. 14:40payroll Fridays.
279. 14:42They're extremely
280. 14:45unpredictable.
281. 14:46uh you don't really know for certain
282. 14:49what they're going to do because the
283. 14:50data isn't always trustworthy. And I've
284. 14:53seen many times where the jobs data
285. 14:56should be extremely bullish if we're
286. 14:58going to be fundamentally uh aligned
287. 15:00with what price is doing. And I don't
288. 15:03believe that the markets entirely are
289. 15:06doing that. I believe commodity markets
290. 15:09like food,
291. 15:11energy,
292. 15:13um I'll come back to energy in a second.
293. 15:16Um food and grains, meats and things
294. 15:19like that. Um cotton
295. 15:22things that we use for for clothing,
296. 15:25>> [snorts]
297. 15:25>> uh grocery items that you have to eat.
298. 15:29Those things are generally
299. 15:31controlled by fundamental supply and
300. 15:33demand factors. There really isn't any
301. 15:36fundamental driving factors for like
302. 15:39stocks or index futures like we're
303. 15:41looking at here. It's it's perceived
304. 15:45uh supply and demand factors, not not
305. 15:48trading. Okay, we're not talking about
306. 15:50zones and things like that, but
307. 15:54non-farm payroll
308. 15:57for [snorts] jobs data is one of the
309. 16:00largest reports that is misinterpreted
310. 16:03by traders and I got caught up in it in
311. 16:06the early years of my career. I started
312. 16:09uh not November 5th, 1992.
313. 16:14And
314. 16:17when I was 14,
315. 16:1913, 14 going into my 16th year as a
316. 16:24teenager, all through those years, my
317. 16:26uncle was talking to me all the time.
318. 16:27And he never one time mentioned
319. 16:29fundamental data. Like, not that I'd
320. 16:31learned how to trade wealth from my
321. 16:33uncle, but that was my first
322. 16:35introduction to it. And
323. 16:40maybe if people would have talked about
324. 16:41it, you know, I I I probably would have
325. 16:43been more more inclined, pardon me, more
326. 16:48inclined to uh
327. 16:51spend more, you know, time seeking out
328. 16:54more information about it.
329. 17:00It wasn't until uh my second year
330. 17:05that uh I learned about fundamental data
331. 17:09and fundamentally
332. 17:13I thought it was stupid
333. 17:15because
334. 17:17if we're looking at something for
335. 17:19instance
336. 17:20non-farm payroll data
337. 17:23we're looking at old information
338. 17:27expecting it to have an immediate
339. 17:31impact on
340. 17:33what already has been known
341. 17:36by informed money. So do you believe
342. 17:40honestly especially in today's world
343. 17:43all the corruption and things it's
344. 17:45obvious
345. 17:47you don't think they had that
346. 17:48information
347. 17:50like they sat on the data for like a
348. 17:51month the information they sat on it and
349. 17:54the market had moved
350. 17:57while people in the know they have
351. 17:59privileged seats like senators they have
352. 18:03they have inside information they know
353. 18:04things that are going to be approved for
354. 18:08companies, for sales, new products, new
355. 18:14innovative ideas that are going to be
356. 18:16brought to market. So, they actually
357. 18:19have VIP seating where they can actually
358. 18:22assume trades and it's illegal really,
359. 18:24but you wouldn't think it so much
360. 18:26anymore. You know, insider trading is,
361. 18:29you know, it's in fashion. That's how
362. 18:31these people get rich. So,
363. 18:37I'm just
364. 18:39I'm not a fan of fundamental analysis,
365. 18:41let's put it that way. Maybe there was a
366. 18:43time
367. 18:44when things were more on the up and up,
368. 18:47but I do believe it has a strong
369. 18:49correlation to commodities like crops
370. 18:52like corn, grains, soybean, wheat, uh
371. 18:56oats because they end up in our grocery
372. 18:59stores and people consume them. um
373. 19:02livestock um like you know farms like
374. 19:06cows, horses,
375. 19:08uh they they use those things. So
376. 19:09there's a real supply and demand factor.
377. 19:11If there isn't a bumper crop of corn and
378. 19:16say the the crops come in lower than
379. 19:18expected, that's going to have a direct
380. 19:21correlation to the price of everything
381. 19:25that uses corn from corn in itself or to
382. 19:30items that we buy at the grocery store
383. 19:32that uses an ingredient. and livestock,
384. 19:37the care for them, the cost of doing
385. 19:39that is going to be harder for the the
386. 19:42the livestock
387. 19:46farmers, okay, the people that raise the
388. 19:48meat. So, they're going to have to pay
389. 19:50more for the food to take care of that.
390. 19:52So, what do you think they're going to
391. 19:53do when it comes time for them to bring
392. 19:54their livestock to market for slaughter?
393. 19:58They're going to demand a higher price
394. 20:00because they it costs more to feed them.
395. 20:03So I do believe there's a supply and
396. 20:05demand factor that is strongly
397. 20:07correlated to like agricultural markets,
398. 20:11not so much with bonds, not so much with
399. 20:14stocks, not so much with index futures.
400. 20:17So it's kind of like a
401. 20:21pseudocience
402. 20:23as a technical analyst when we're
403. 20:25looking at markets that don't really
404. 20:26have supply and demand factors. Okay.
405. 20:29So, um I guess one can argue like
406. 20:31everyone that's fanatical about these
407. 20:34Pokemon cards. There's a supply and
408. 20:36demand factor there for Lunacy. Okay.
409. 20:39But I would never invest money in
410. 20:41something like that. It's just it
411. 20:44doesn't make any sense to me. It just
412. 20:45makes no sense at all. But there's
413. 20:47always a fool out there willing to pay
414. 20:48more than you did if you wait long
415. 20:50enough and market it appropriately.
416. 20:53All right. So, see how we did? inclined
417. 20:56all the way back up to
418. 20:58that right there. It always bothers me
419. 21:00when I open I bump the top of this and
420. 21:03it shows here. It used to be my uh
421. 21:06my concern would be I got to erase this.
422. 21:09Okay, look real close. You see that
423. 21:11guy's face right here? Watch when I
424. 21:12hover. See that upper leftand corner?
425. 21:15That guy's not around anymore. I don't
426. 21:16know why everybody's pretending he is.
427. 21:18It's like weekend at Bernie's
428. 21:20and you and you wonder why our future's
429. 21:23looking pretty bleak.
430. 21:27We have people out there that are
431. 21:30running offices and and seats that
432. 21:34shouldn't be doing anything.
433. 21:36All right. So, how we're reaching above?
434. 21:38Look at that. Look at this right here.
435. 21:41That run right there. this going down
436. 21:44into the daily
437. 21:47inversion fair value gap and then
438. 21:49completely running over top of this
439. 21:51using the halfway point. None of the
440. 21:53body none of the bodies close below
441. 21:55that. You see that? See that? Isn't it
442. 21:58interesting?
443. 22:00So, we'll see if we can get a little bit
444. 22:02of an animation to these
445. 22:06crush on that daily wick I gave you.
446. 22:10Again,
447. 22:16always reflecting that it is not market
448. 22:19replay. You can see the entirety of my
449. 22:21screen. I sat here and talked to you.
450. 22:24Probably bored you to death. Didn't give
451. 22:26you anything that was interesting. Oops.
452. 22:28You know what I didn't do?
453. 22:30Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. I I got into
454. 22:33my talking and didn't even show the
455. 22:36execution. I'm sorry. All right. So,
456. 22:39that's that. Um, you can see there's the
457. 22:41look right here.
458. 22:43There's the fill right there. Right
459. 22:45above
460. 22:49shortterm high
461. 22:52right there. Ain't that clever? Look at
462. 22:56that.
463. 22:57Probably luck. Okay, this already you
464. 23:01many times better than most of the
465. 23:02people out there that claim to know how
466. 23:03to trade. You know, the guys in the
467. 23:05comment section, they'll say this is all
468. 23:07made up stuff.
469. 23:09>> [laughter]
470. 23:10>> He's cherry-picking.
471. 23:12They can't find something like this.
472. 23:14They They can't see the logic. They
473. 23:15can't see any reason for it to
474. 23:16anticipate
475. 23:18a run, which I kind of like want to talk
476. 23:21about that this weekend. Um, it'll be a
477. 23:25space that I put on my YouTube channel.
478. 23:29I don't want to be on X because X
479. 23:31sometimes messes me up. Sometimes the uh
480. 23:35the audio
481. 23:37doesn't permit me to be heard.
482. 23:40And I I believe
483. 23:43I believe that's intentional. And you
484. 23:45can argue and believe whatever you want
485. 23:47to believe, but I believe it's
486. 23:48intentional. [sighs and gasps]
487. 23:50All right. So, I'm going to see if I can
488. 23:51get a contract off here.
489. 23:54But if I do it on YouTube, it'll be like
490. 23:57pre-recorded. So, that way it'll be me
491. 23:59just talking.
492. 24:02Okay. And topic I want to talk about is
493. 24:08generic
494. 24:10price structure that yields continuous
495. 24:13opportunities. In other words, if if you
496. 24:17knew everything,
497. 24:20okay, if you knew everything that I have
498. 24:22released in my teaching compendium on
499. 24:24this YouTube channel, if you knew
500. 24:27everything that I covered there
501. 24:30in and of itself,
502. 24:33you would have a massive understanding
503. 24:35about price action
504. 24:38framework that's available for setups.
505. 24:41um where price action generally creates
506. 24:46the obvious
507. 24:48areas of where price will run like we
508. 24:50outlined here on that daily inversion
509. 24:54fair and then this one here by the way
510. 24:57why did I pick this one you're probably
511. 24:59asking you know what's so significant
512. 25:00about that it's the last one on this run
513. 25:04here
514. 25:06so all the energy it took from this high
515. 25:08all the way down to that point right
516. 25:12The last inefficiency looking at this
517. 25:14lowest down close. I'm sorry, lowest
518. 25:17candle of all this price run lower.
519. 25:20Start walking back to the left. There's
520. 25:23no gap. There's a volume imbalance, but
521. 25:26we already used that there. You see
522. 25:27that? So that would have been an area if
523. 25:30I was sitting in front of the charts and
524. 25:32ready to talk to you about it and
525. 25:34recording. I would have put one of my
526. 25:37entries there and then I would have
527. 25:38pyramided up in here but wasn't from the
528. 25:42charts. Okay, I have a real life. I have
529. 25:44responsibilities. Okay, I have puppies
530. 25:46that I take take care of and they demand
531. 25:48to be fed.
532. 25:50Little brats. So keep working to the
533. 25:52left. Okay. And then we don't have a gap
534. 25:56in here because the wicks are bridging
535. 25:58that up. We have a small little volume
536. 26:00imbalance there. It gets used there.
537. 26:02Opens, trades down. There's the volume
538. 26:04imbalance colors outside the the
539. 26:06inversion fair value gap which is
540. 26:07permissible. That's absolutely
541. 26:09permissible. But then we have this
542. 26:12suspension block. So we have that little
543. 26:15volume imbalance there where the bodies
544. 26:17don't connect or overlap. And then we
545. 26:19have this section here where these two
546. 26:21candlesticks respectively their bodies
547. 26:23don't connect or overlap. So when we
548. 26:26have a invol u
549. 26:29volume balance at the high and the low
550. 26:31of an inefficiency
551. 26:33that's a suspension block. So you carry
552. 26:35that information forward and then you
553. 26:38can see where obviously I went long
554. 26:39right at the midpoint there.
555. 26:42Now why was I confident about that?
556. 26:44Everything I just said, we traded down
557. 26:47into this energetically on the daily
558. 26:49chart. This is a key level and key
559. 26:52levels on a daily chart, you have a
560. 26:54large degree of probability. That means
561. 26:56odds are in your favor.
562. 27:05You're going to see a
563. 27:07tradable
564. 27:09price run. It doesn't mean that
565. 27:14you're going to be profitable. It just
566. 27:15means that you as a trader, we need
567. 27:18movement. Okay? Without motion, without
568. 27:21movement in price action, it's
569. 27:24impossible for us to profit. It's
570. 27:26literally impossible. So isn't it
571. 27:31obvious that we have to spend more time
572. 27:34looking for places where price may
573. 27:37on a consistent basis provide those
574. 27:39types of things where we can in invite
575. 27:42the opportunity to take on risk
576. 27:46measured risk managing it impeccably
577. 27:50and then anticipate not react
578. 27:53anticipate. Notice what I was doing down
579. 27:56here when I was talking to you. I
580. 27:57anticipated this drop down in here while
581. 28:00it didn't happen live.
582. 28:04I expected it to have this type of
583. 28:05reaction here.
584. 28:07I anticipated
585. 28:10this area here to propel price up.
586. 28:15It came up half of it, then we closed
587. 28:17outside of it and then rallied up right
588. 28:19there on that immediate candle where it
589. 28:21started to go higher. I felt that that
590. 28:23is an area where it's it's reasonable
591. 28:26for me to get long there because I have
592. 28:28the backdrop of we're in a daily
593. 28:30inversion fair gap.
594. 28:33We have the volume imbalance. They used
595. 28:35it right there. The algorithm
596. 28:37immediately open traded right down into
597. 28:39Let me show it to you visually.
598. 28:46I got people sending me emails mad.
599. 28:49If you're really a teacher, you would do
600. 28:51this in front of us. No. And I'm not
601. 28:53going to be guilted into it. Okay. Those
602. 28:56are the individuals I mute online when
603. 28:59you cry baby to me about how I should be
604. 29:01doing this. No, I'm doing this for free.
605. 29:06I'm not obligated to do any of these
606. 29:07things. But as soon as you start
607. 29:09twisting my arm saying I'm only going to
608. 29:11believe you, then don't believe me. Soon
609. 29:13as you start a conversation with that
610. 29:14I'm only going to believe or I don't
611. 29:15believe, okay, I'm not interested in
612. 29:17hearing anything. [laughter]
613. 29:18So the volume imbalance there, you can
614. 29:21see we traded down into it. Look at the
615. 29:23open on this candlestick's price
616. 29:2729,390.75.
617. 29:30So just think 90.75. The low on this
618. 29:34candlestick
619. 29:3790.75.
620. 29:39That's perfect, folks. And you want to
621. 29:41talk to me about order flow and level
622. 29:44two data and bubble charts and things
623. 29:45like that. Not necessary. It's not
624. 29:49necessary at all. So, because I had
625. 29:51shown these things just by quick glance,
626. 29:53I don't need to talk about it, but many
627. 29:55times because I'm using a one minute
628. 29:56chart, I'm I'm operating inside of a
629. 29:59time frame where it does not permit me
630. 30:01the luxury of fluffing it. You have to
631. 30:04know exactly what you're doing. You have
632. 30:07to know exactly what you're doing, what
633. 30:08it should do, what it should not be
634. 30:10doing, and what's permissible, what's
635. 30:12not permissible. In the beginning, it's
636. 30:14like this is impossible for me to know
637. 30:18what it should be doing until you start
638. 30:22recognizing patterns
639. 30:24of volatility, price runs that are
640. 30:29easily predictable. So, we predicted
641. 30:32that this was an area where it would
642. 30:34have a sustained price run higher.
643. 30:37We predicted that this was going to be a
644. 30:40catalyst to send price higher. We
645. 30:42predicted that price would completely
646. 30:44erode
647. 30:46and run right back over top of all of
648. 30:48this and then go for the buy side here
649. 30:51and here. It's done so handsomely. We
650. 30:54predicted that price should be
651. 30:55respecting this halfway point. Okay,
652. 30:58consequent encroachment.
653. 31:00That right there is not taught by Chris
654. 31:02Lori. I'm just going to toss that out
655. 31:03there for the people that leave comments
656. 31:04in other people's channels. I read that
657. 31:06stuff. It's it's it's funny. It's
658. 31:08comedy. But uh none of that stuff was
659. 31:10ever taught by him. And no, I didn't
660. 31:13learn from him. So the idea of it
661. 31:16running up
662. 31:19and taking that buy side there,
663. 31:23we have this wick.
664. 31:25We want to see the uh willingness of
665. 31:27price action to support. Where we at
666. 31:29here with this fib? There it is.
667. 31:33There to there.
668. 31:36All right. So, I'm going to take the
669. 31:38other lines off.
670. 31:42I know. Why don't you set up uh blah
671. 31:44blah blah. I know, but I like showing it
672. 31:46because so many people ask to see my fib
673. 31:48settings. They get shoved in your face
674. 31:50constantly. Okay.
675. 31:53So, I want to see price try to have a
676. 31:56continued willingness to be above this
677. 31:58wick's consequent encouragement. Okay.
678. 32:01And then right there. Now, what I'm
679. 32:03going to do is simply because this has
680. 32:04been really energetic. I'm going to back
681. 32:07off my demand of because I supply demand
682. 32:13the uh that that high. I want to I want
683. 32:15to take one off at that high because
684. 32:18we've had such a nice run from here.
685. 32:21Okay. You ever you ever as a child ever
686. 32:24eat tap taffy?
687. 32:27Think about it. You grab it and you
688. 32:29stretch it out. And as you stretch it
689. 32:31out, it gets thinner and thinner and
690. 32:34thinner and thinner. And eventually
691. 32:36it'll droop down.
692. 32:38That's that's what we have here. So it
693. 32:41can give up the ghost below here. I'd
694. 32:43prefer it don't. That means it could go
695. 32:46down below that. And if it does, I would
696. 32:47want to see it stay in the upper half of
697. 32:49this gap.
698. 32:54So, what I just did was I gave you an if
699. 32:55then clause for the price action is
700. 33:00right now. Okay? Ideally, we want to see
701. 33:03this wick support that you don't ever
702. 33:04hear anybody teach that only person ever
703. 33:07came out and talked about that was me.
704. 33:10This gap here, if it were to go below
705. 33:14this, okay, if it were to go down below
706. 33:16that, which right now it's not showing
707. 33:18any willingness to do that, which is
708. 33:19nice.
709. 33:22We're going to bring that up to there.
710. 33:24So, now we locked in.
711. 33:28Nice little mortgage payment or
712. 33:32bungalow [laughter]
713. 33:34somewhere. I don't know
714. 33:37if it were to come back down in here
715. 33:39because it looks like it might want to
716. 33:40do it now. This area up in here, it
717. 33:43needs to show uh discount sensitivity.
718. 33:46Okay. So that would be like this
719. 33:50halfway point there up to that.
720. 33:55Drag that over. We want to see price. If
721. 33:58it comes down here, it needs to be
722. 34:01reactive to the upside and not be so
723. 34:03inclined to want to go all the way down
724. 34:04here. That's why I have my stop loss
725. 34:06here. It's below the midpoint of this
726. 34:08wick right there. So if it's bullish, it
727. 34:12need not go below this area here. Worst
728. 34:15case scenario, it could wick down to
729. 34:16that. I' I'd prefer it not do that.
730. 34:20So, I gave you if it does this, if it
731. 34:23doesn't go below here, which it's done,
732. 34:25and continues to goes higher, that's
733. 34:26really good. But if it does go below
734. 34:29here, then I got this area where it has
735. 34:31to show me a willingness to go higher.
736. 34:34And because this is like a critical area
737. 34:37because I'm looking at this old high as
738. 34:39a PDA. I'm looking at this upper portion
739. 34:41of this buy set of balance sell sign
740. 34:42efficiency as a PD array. And I'm also
741. 34:45looking at that wick right there. So
742. 34:46there's my three PD arrays. If the third
743. 34:49one and the lowest one is this upper
744. 34:50portion of this buy side of balance side
745. 34:52efficiency. Okay. This gap
746. 34:58again one of those things that Chris
747. 34:59Lori did not teach. Okay. And I don't
748. 35:01mean to be mean-spirited, but I have to
749. 35:03correct these people when they put that
750. 35:05stuff out there because he didn't teach
751. 35:06the upper half of a gap that's formed
752. 35:09like this. That's where it's going to
753. 35:10create the uh the strongest form of
754. 35:13buying
755. 35:16for an entry, let's put it that way,
756. 35:17because you want to see a small portion
757. 35:19of the gap stay open. A small portion of
758. 35:22a gap remaining open is an unwillingness
759. 35:24to go lower. So if the market is
760. 35:26unwilling to go lower while you're
761. 35:28expecting higher prices, doesn't that by
762. 35:30definition indicate that it's extremely
763. 35:32strong? Of course. But nobody else
764. 35:35thought that that way before. So that's
765. 35:38what that's what you don't recognize.
766. 35:40Just because you see me drawing boxes on
767. 35:42my chart doesn't mean it's supply and
768. 35:44demand and it doesn't mean it's anything
769. 35:47else from anyone else.
770. 35:50I don't have a problem. If I would have
771. 35:51learned it from somebody else, I'd been
772. 35:52like, you know, this is where I learned
773. 35:54it from.
774. 35:55But I didn't. So, I mean, that that's
775. 35:59it. That's the truth.
776. 36:02>> So, let's see if it taps this little
777. 36:05blue shaded area. If it comes down and
778. 36:07stops me out, it's been a wonderful
779. 36:09experiment.
780. 36:17wick up here the consequent
781. 36:19encouragement of that daily wick I was
782. 36:21showing you earlier at the beginning of
783. 36:23the session
784. 36:25so right away let's say for instance
785. 36:28that you were you were nervous okay and
786. 36:32you didn't have the the the confidence
787. 36:35and you know that we're at a really nice
788. 36:36level here and you're just afraid it's
789. 36:39going to come back too deep on you can
790. 36:40just do this
791. 36:42how painless that was
792. 36:45you immediately remove the stink
793. 36:48or the weight of I need to be right.
794. 36:52I need to be right.
795. 36:56You don't need to be right, but you do
796. 36:58need to manage your emotions. And trade
797. 37:00psychology is easily managed by
798. 37:03rewarding yourself when the opportunity
799. 37:05is there. Give yourself the cookie.
800. 37:08Okay. um trading and building your
801. 37:12equity,
802. 37:16you want your equity to increase.
803. 37:20You want the weight of that number to
804. 37:22increase. So, how does that happen? You
805. 37:26consume new equity.
806. 37:28It's like eating cookies. Okay? This is
807. 37:31the only thing that you can do where you
808. 37:34consume more
809. 37:36and the weightiness of your bottom line
810. 37:40increases. You want that number to be
811. 37:42fat. In the beginning, you got to teach
812. 37:45yourself to re, you know, reward
813. 37:47yourself with the cookie. Put your hand
814. 37:48in the cookie jar when when it's
815. 37:50permissible. In this case, it's
816. 37:52permissible. We've had an entry down
817. 37:54here. Look at that reaction right there.
818. 37:56See that? It's almost like I'm doing.
819. 38:00It's crazy the idea of rewarding
820. 38:03yourself, giving yourself that little
821. 38:05bit of a reward. And when you feel
822. 38:08nervous, think about it. Like
823. 38:11when I was a younger guy and I
824. 38:13experienced anxiety,
825. 38:15the
826. 38:18the impulse to want to eat sweets
827. 38:21would go way up. And I discovered that I
828. 38:25was a nervous eater. And when I was in
829. 38:29long periods of draw down in the early
830. 38:30stages of my development, I started
831. 38:32eating very poorly. You snack cakes. Um
832. 38:38I'm I'm a
833. 38:41bit of a baker
834. 38:43and I would make cakes and then it would
835. 38:45be nothing for me to basically eat the
836. 38:47entire cake over a trading day. Pour
837. 38:50milk and just eat right off the plate
838. 38:52that I just created it. And
839. 38:56if you're sitting there and you're
840. 38:57stressed out and you're constantly
841. 38:59eating sweets all the time, you're going
842. 39:00to tear your health up. It's going to be
843. 39:02very uncomfortable while you're stressed
844. 39:05and you're going to gain weight.
845. 39:07In trading,
846. 39:09you have to think, I want a cookie when
847. 39:12it's offered to me. I'm going to I'm not
848. 39:14going to have my hands spack uh smacked
849. 39:16or my rear end spanked by me taking
850. 39:20profits.
851. 39:21Okay? When people say, "Well,
852. 39:25if you said that you thought, see what I
853. 39:26just did there." That's the benefit of
854. 39:29giving yourself the cookie.
855. 39:34Tuck two off of three. If it comes down,
856. 39:37stops me out. This point here from here,
857. 39:40that's wonderful.
858. 39:42See that? Painless.
859. 39:45Painless.
860. 39:47There's no argument about, well, I'm mad
861. 39:49because it didn't go up here and get my
862. 39:51next target here.
863. 39:53Why? Why would you be mad? Why would you
864. 39:56be mad? Now, the next bit of business is
865. 39:58we have this inefficiency. Real quick,
866. 40:00the same thing I added as a measure of
867. 40:07discount sensitivity would be the
868. 40:08midpoint here up to there. If it's going
869. 40:12to be continued to the upside, I would
870. 40:13prefer it stay
871. 40:16sensitive to not wanting to go lower
872. 40:18while we're in this area here. Okay? And
873. 40:21it would be nice to see it completely
874. 40:23repel away from that and overlap that
875. 40:26high, then start to stretch out and go
876. 40:28up towards that daily wick I told you
877. 40:30about in the consequent encouragement.
878. 40:33But
879. 40:36there don't want to be shorting it. If
880. 40:38it goes up there, I'd be going short.
881. 40:40The uh
882. 40:44I lost my train of thought. Give me a
883. 40:46second here. I'm going to let this be
884. 40:48unedited, too. By the way, there's a
885. 40:50couple things like the cough and the
886. 40:51clearing my throat and me just saying I
887. 40:52just lost my train of thought. I'm going
888. 40:54to keep it together cuz I want you to
889. 40:56see everything down here. Everything
890. 40:58here time-wise, which is always New York
891. 41:01local time.
892. 41:03All these things
893. 41:05are organic. They're not voiced over.
894. 41:09And we talked about
895. 41:12this price run happening. It It
896. 41:14delivered. It did not give me my second
897. 41:16area, which was up here. And then I
898. 41:19adjusted it for this. And then we failed
899. 41:23once we got into here to go any higher.
900. 41:26Now, I I sensed a little disturbance in
901. 41:28the force because we we had this drop
902. 41:31down in here
903. 41:33and then it showed that one candle where
904. 41:36it looked like it was going to run.
905. 41:38It opened, traded right down to that and
906. 41:41went right right here, went right to the
907. 41:43rejection block and then it gave up the
908. 41:45ghost. And then that's why we're seeing
909. 41:47this bodies. Look at the bodies. It's
910. 41:50below that wick consequent encroachment.
911. 41:52That's why it got real heavy and weighty
912. 41:54in here. So you see all those things I'm
913. 41:57teaching, it's all happening in price
914. 41:59action. But if you ever get into a
915. 42:02position where
916. 42:04you're now concerned about the outcome
917. 42:07or you feel like you're going to feel
918. 42:09like a victim if it comes back against
919. 42:12you and and stops you out once you
920. 42:15adjust your stop loss as you saw me do
921. 42:17earlier.
922. 42:19And you have the ability to take a
923. 42:20partial off. As soon as you start
924. 42:23wrestling with that idea, especially if
925. 42:25you're new, if you're inexperienced, the
926. 42:28best thing you can do to re to reward
927. 42:31what you have done thus far and also to
928. 42:34lessen the concern for those types of
929. 42:36things is to simply take something off.
930. 42:40Don't think, oh, okay, um, it's going to
931. 42:43go for my stop. I shouldn't have raised
932. 42:44it up here. Let me draw it back down.
933. 42:46What are you doing?
934. 42:48You're going to give back all of that
935. 42:50unrealized potential gain by re
936. 42:54readjusting the stop loss once you raise
937. 42:56it up. Commit to that. What you're
938. 42:59saying is is I'm going to be paid
939. 43:03if it stops me out. Why would you want
940. 43:06why would you want to would you go to
941. 43:07work for someone work all week long for
942. 43:10an agreed salary and then say you know
943. 43:13what
944. 43:16something just doesn't feel right. I'm
945. 43:17going to go in and uh tell them to take
946. 43:20uh you a third of my payoff. I just
947. 43:23something doesn't feel right. That's
948. 43:25what you're doing when you move your
949. 43:27stop loss back and you take away the
950. 43:31potential to get paid at whatever level
951. 43:33it was you raised the stop up when
952. 43:34you're long or when you lowered it when
953. 43:36you're short. As soon as you commit to a
954. 43:39stop loss that's adjusted that way,
955. 43:41stick with that.
956. 43:43If you do that, I promise you, number
957. 43:45one, it's going to create discipline. to
958. 43:47you're managing. You don't feel it in
959. 43:49the beginning, but you're managing
960. 43:51the weight of right or wrong
961. 43:56and fear and greed.
962. 44:00You don't have the experience of
963. 44:01recognizing it. That's what it does. So,
964. 44:04when you move your stop loss and you
965. 44:06lock in some measure of profit, if you
966. 44:09just watch the live streamers
967. 44:11and and some of my students still have
968. 44:13this little bit of a an issue, if they
969. 44:16move their stop loss
970. 44:19and it starts to go towards their stop,
971. 44:21you can listen to their breathing,
972. 44:25watch their body language,
973. 44:28and their facial expressions will start
974. 44:30changing.
975. 44:32they'll they'll be concerned. They'll
976. 44:34look like the guy at the poker table
977. 44:36when you're watching the World Series of
978. 44:38Poker Trading. And uh he's been
979. 44:41stonefaced the entire time, but now all
980. 44:43of a sudden he's he's standing up. He's
981. 44:45got his arms crossed. He's he's
982. 44:48everything on that trade is not that
983. 44:50trade, but on that that hand.
984. 44:53Everything is committed and they can't
985. 44:55hold it in anymore.
986. 44:58That's what happens when you move a
987. 44:59stop-loss. But why would you want to
988. 45:02say, "All right, I I moved it to a point
989. 45:05of where I locked in. If it comes back
990. 45:07against me, I'm going to get paid."
991. 45:10That's a reward. Let it do its job. You
992. 45:14hired that stop-loss
993. 45:16to do a job. Take you out of a trade and
994. 45:18pay you.
995. 45:21You're going to get paid. If you get
996. 45:22stopped out and you moved it in into
997. 45:24profit, you're going to get paid.
998. 45:28Why are you looking at it any other way?
999. 45:32Think, for those of you who've done
1000. 45:34this, you've never thought about it like
1001. 45:35that. I promise you, you don't think it
1002. 45:36like that. You think that you're being
1003. 45:38victimized. Oh,
1004. 45:42the the market's so and so. [laughter]
1005. 45:45Something happened. Trump is the big big
1006. 45:47culprit now. He's being blamed for
1007. 45:48everything. No, you just suck. Okay? You
1008. 45:51don't know how to wrestle yourself and
1009. 45:53and bring yourself under submission. You
1010. 45:55did something wrong. That's that's the
1011. 45:57reality. Okay. You you moved your stop
1012. 45:59loss. You didn't take profit at a higher
1013. 46:01price. Okay. And here you watched me
1014. 46:04walk you through it. It was showing
1015. 46:06signs that okay, maybe maybe it's
1016. 46:10something for me to illustrate. Take one
1017. 46:13of them off.
1018. 46:15It gave an indication like it wanted to
1019. 46:16go but it only went right to the
1020. 46:18rejection block. Rejection block is the
1021. 46:20highest up close price in a swing high.
1022. 46:25And that's this right there.
1023. 46:28Okay, you see that? Once it started
1024. 46:30coming back down,
1025. 46:33as soon as you tap that, the concern for
1026. 46:35it to rally there, because I took a
1027. 46:37partial off there, right at the high,
1028. 46:41which would have been an area where I
1029. 46:42could have been reaching for there, I
1030. 46:44could have took two off. See it? Look,
1031. 46:46look at the price. See how they match?
1032. 46:48See that? That
1033. 46:50and that.
1034. 46:53It's basically the same thing. Hey
1035. 46:55girls, look. I promised them I was going
1036. 46:58to edit these video. Okay, you're going
1037. 46:59to mess it all up. So,
1038. 47:02you're getting, you know, in actual
1039. 47:06application over live price speed doing
1040. 47:09executions,
1041. 47:11not market replay. Okay. Do you see any
1042. 47:14controls down here? Down here at the
1043. 47:16bottom? You don't see that? Okay. Look,
1044. 47:20I'm moving things around.
1045. 47:23Look at this. Look at that. I would like
1046. 47:26to see if it can build the idea of
1047. 47:30climbing back up into this area here.
1048. 47:32And if it can support price again in
1049. 47:34that area and go higher, then we're
1050. 47:37going to consider going to this level.
1051. 47:39But if it folds and trades below here,
1052. 47:42below that low on a closing basis, then
1053. 47:47this is going to be the last line of
1054. 47:48defense for any bullishness on the
1055. 47:51initial,
1056. 47:54I guess, expectations of this morning's
1057. 47:55session.
1058. 47:59Anyway, um
1059. 48:05I I think that's actually a perfect
1060. 48:06place to close this one down.
1061. 48:09And it's during a time where I teach you
1062. 48:12to focus
1063. 48:14and between 7:00
1064. 48:17e Eastern time to 9:00 a.m.
1065. 48:22using the logic,
1066. 48:24pardon me, using the logic of the daily
1067. 48:27PD array and it traded down to discount
1068. 48:30arrays on the daily chart. When it did
1069. 48:34that at this time at 7:00 in the
1070. 48:36morning, it did it aggressively.
1071. 48:38It ripped higher,
1072. 48:40create all this consolidation here, and
1073. 48:44then folded quickly, and now we're
1074. 48:46supporting the upper half, which is
1075. 48:48again something I told you I would like
1076. 48:50to see as it like a defensive view on
1077. 48:54price action. Does it price want to
1078. 48:56defend its market structure here? Now,
1079. 48:59if we can climb up into this
1080. 49:06and reaccumulate and uh rally higher,
1081. 49:10then this over here
1082. 49:12would
1083. 49:14pretty much be a certainty. Okay, so I'm
1084. 49:18going to close this one here. Hurry up.
1085. 49:21I'm going compress it and render it and
1086. 49:24send it up onto YouTube and give you
1087. 49:25guys something to to listen to. and then
1088. 49:29uh take it to heart. Okay, there's lots
1089. 49:33of opportunities, lots of opportunities,
1090. 49:36but unless you know what you are going
1091. 49:38to look for and anticipate and hunt, cuz
1092. 49:42that's what we're doing. We're hunting.
1093. 49:45We're not waiting for
1094. 49:47the deer, okay, to um
1095. 49:51start running before we pursue it.
1096. 49:54It needs to walk in front of us in our
1097. 49:57pathway and then we take it down to
1098. 50:00consume it. I don't hunt, but I'm just
1099. 50:02giving you an example, okay? Cuz
1100. 50:04predominantly most of my audience is men
1101. 50:06or male and they tend to have a
1102. 50:11a lean towards macho things like that. I
1103. 50:14I I don't think it's macho, but some
1104. 50:18people I'm not I'm like I'm not like pea
1105. 50:21level, you know. it was created for us
1106. 50:24to eat. [sighs]
1107. 50:26But uh
1108. 50:29you have to learn to anticipate things,
1109. 50:31know when it's likely to do something,
1110. 50:33and then what does it do to support the
1111. 50:36idea once you believe it's going to go
1112. 50:38up?
1113. 50:40How should that movement
1114. 50:44start
1115. 50:46the inception of that price run? and
1116. 50:49where's the footholds that continuously
1117. 50:51give continued feedback that that price
1118. 50:54run is sustainable and I walked you
1119. 50:57through all of it here.
1120. 51:00Okay, so hopefully this is helpful to
1121. 51:02you. Um it's there's just one more piece
1122. 51:05of the puzzle explaining things. Okay,
1123. 51:08and uh there's technical science behind
1124. 51:11it, folks. You just got to spend a
1125. 51:14little bit more time with the old man. I
1126. 51:15promise where you end up, you'll enjoy
1127. 51:18it.