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Susan Tanaka, Peterson Foundation - OECD Speaker Series — Transcript

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0:04Welcome to the OECD and our new speaker
0:06series on empowering public
0:08understanding. My name is John Blondel,
0:10the head of the OCD's budgeting and
0:12public management division, and I will
0:14be acting as a moderator for this event,
0:17which is being recorded. It is most
0:20fitting that our speaker today is Susan
0:22Tanaka, senior policy advisor at the
0:25Peterson Foundation, where she has been
0:27a leading voice on fiscal policy for
0:30over 17 years. She has deep experience
0:33across United States budgeting,
0:35including time at the Office of
0:36Management and Budget, at the
0:38Congressional Budget Office, and as vice
0:40president of the committee for a
0:42responsible federal budget.
0:44She's an expert not just in many of the
0:47technical aspects, but also in terms of
0:50what really drives policy. Her work is
0:53about safeguarding the next generation's
0:55fiscal future, a challenge that relies
0:58on good communication and building
1:00understanding.
1:02Today, Susan will share her insights
1:04into fiscal literacy and how it is
1:06central to restoring fiscal
1:08sustainability. She will have about 20
1:11to 25 minutes for her presentation and
1:14following that we will open the floor
1:16and welcome questions and comments from
1:18all of you. So thank you all for being
1:20with us. Thank you Susan. The floor is
1:22yours.
1:26>> Thank you John. Good afternoon or
1:28morning or evening wherever you happen
1:30to be. Um thank you too to colleagues at
1:33public governance especially Eddie
1:35Casey. Um, and thank you to everybody on
1:38this webcast for taking the time to join
1:40us. I I'm very pleased to be here. As
1:42John said, I've spent most of my career
1:44looking for ways to improve fiscal
1:46literacy. And my comments today will
1:50reflect my experience at the Office of
1:52Management and Budget and Congressional
1:53Budget Office, various non-governmental
1:56organizations, most currently and most
1:59recently the Peter G. Peterson
2:00Foundation. The mission of the
2:02foundation is to increase public
2:04awareness of the nature and urgency of
2:06key fiscal challenges threatening
2:08America's future and to accelerate
2:10action on them. My comments today though
2:13represent my views, not the official
2:15views of the foundation. I have to say
2:18that until the Pet Peterson Foundation,
2:20I was an analyst primarily interested in
2:23understanding the issues and getting the
2:25numbers right. Since joining the
2:28foundation, I've g I gained a huge
2:30appreciation for getting communications
2:32right. My talk today of course rep
2:35reflects the US experience because
2:37that's what I know best, but the
2:39challenges that you face are very likely
2:41to be similar.
2:49Today, I've been asked to talk about why
2:52we should improve fiscal literacy and to
2:54offer some suggestions for what you
2:57might do if you decide that you want to
2:59devote some energy to that effort. And
3:02as John said, there'll be time at the
3:04end of the presentation for questions.
3:09Okay, first of all, why should we care
3:13about improving fiscal literacy? And the
3:15answer is simple. Because we face huge
3:17fiscal challenges. Debt held by the
3:20public is rising and there's and
3:22stemming its growth is not going to be
3:24easy. We face unfavorable demographics,
3:28weak economic growth, structural fiscal
3:30imbalances, deep political divisions,
3:33low public confidence in government. And
3:36last but not least, the solutions to
3:38this problem are hard. We have to cut
3:40spending and benefits. We have to
3:42increase taxes. We have to increase
3:44gross growth
3:51in democracies. Though it's important
3:53that citizens understand the problem so
3:56they can support the solutions that are
3:58necessary to address the the challenges.
4:01They need to understand what's at stake
4:03and that's how fiscal literacy can help.
4:06I and I have to offer my comments with
4:08great humility. Improving fiscal lit
4:11literacy is not easy. US debt to GDP is
4:15now 250% higher than it was when I first
4:18joined the Peterson Foundation. That's
4:21not to say that I've given up or that
4:23you should give up, but to caution that
4:25it's important to set realistic goals
4:27about the scale and scope of what you
4:29can hope to achieve.
4:33Make sure we're all on the same page.
4:34What is fiscal literacy? For a
4:36definition of fiscal literacy, I refer
4:38to Eddie Casey's May 2024 OECD paper. In
4:43a nutshell, fiscal literacy empowers
4:46people to make informed choices about
4:48the public finances and the future of
4:49their country. Eddie's paper focuses on
4:52reaching elected officials and key
4:54stakeholders, and I highly recommend
4:56that paper to you. My comments today
4:59will focus on how you might attract a
5:01broader public audience. To us budget
5:04and policy types, unsustainable fiscal
5:08policy is always a major problem. But
5:11what do people think?
5:14According to Gallup polling in the US,
5:17adults if asked if they worry about the
5:20public deficit will say yes, they
5:23personally worry a great deal or a fair
5:25amount about it. But deficits and debt
5:28are not top of mind.
5:30They are only mentioned by 3% when asked
5:33what is the most important problem
5:35facing the country today. Other issues,
5:38government poor leadership, immigration,
5:40economy in general, and inflation are
5:43mentioned much more frequently. So to
5:46elevate our fiscal problems in people's
5:48minds, we need a plan.
5:52In the nonprofit sector, we like
5:54theories of change and our theory of
5:56change is that fiscal literacy enhances
5:58fiscal sustainability.
6:00The problem is that a that the outlet
6:02for deficits and debt is bad and getting
6:05worse. The cause is a lack of political
6:07will to change policy. So the action
6:10implied is that we need to raise the
6:12level of fiscal literacy and the hope
6:14for result is that elected officials
6:16will respond to political pressure by
6:18adopting policies to reduce deficits and
6:21debt. In my comments today I will focus
6:24on that third box actions and the steps
6:26needed to raise fiscal literacy.
6:31There are many interrelated factors of
6:34course when you design a strategy any
6:36strategy but especially a strategy to
6:38raise fiscal literacy. First of all
6:40there are constraints there may be
6:42constraints on your organization's role
6:45including statutory limits and there are
6:47resource constraints both financial and
6:49staff and then there are the major
6:51questions that you have to answer before
6:54you design your approach. First is why?
6:57What what are you trying to do? Who? Who
7:00are you trying to reach? What's your
7:02message? And finally, how. How are you
7:04going to reach them?
7:08Let's start with the why. The why
7:11involves realistic goal setting. What
7:13does raising fiscal literacy mean to
7:16you? How do you define success? And why
7:18should people care? Is it enough for
7:21citizens to be aware of basic facts? And
7:24if so, which ones do they need to know?
7:27Is knowing the level of debt to GDP
7:29meaningful to them?
7:31What do you want people to know about
7:33the causes and consequences of fiscal
7:36challenges?
7:37And should they be able to follow the
7:39budget process once their knowledge of
7:42fiscal issues is elevated? Do you want
7:44to motivate them to do something, write,
7:47vote, engage in their communities or
7:49with elected officials? Is there
7:51something else? or do you want to them
7:54to actively participate in the public
7:56defa debate perhaps becoming advocates
7:59for policy change? The next question is
8:02who
8:04who's your audience? You can't be all
8:07things to all people. So, it's important
8:09to define your priorities and design
8:12your content to fit the audience you
8:14want to reach. There are multiple
8:16targets possible and within within each
8:19of these groups, the knowledge of fiscal
8:20issues will vary. The hard part is
8:23matching the who you want to reach with
8:26those who might be interested in what
8:27you have to say. Otherwise, you'll waste
8:29a lot of time and resources and won't be
8:32as effective.
8:39Revisiting the chart I showed you a
8:41little earlier, there is some good news.
8:43After all, threearters of people say
8:46that they care they worry a great deal
8:48or a fair amount about spending in the
8:50budget deficit.
8:52So that means that they are primed to
8:54receive your message if you can reach
8:56them. At the foundation, we focus on
8:59enlarging our audience, aiming at those
9:02who might be persuadable, which means
9:04focusing on that 13% who are only a
9:06little concerned while at the same time
9:08reinforcing and supporting the position
9:10of concern for those who are already
9:11worried about the problem.
9:17Okay, the hard part is the message.
9:21The content you provide of course has to
9:23be consistent with your ultimate goal
9:25which I think is to encourage citizens
9:27to demand better fiscal outcomes. Among
9:30the elements to consider is scope and
9:33intensity.
9:35How much information is enough?
9:37Understanding that people are already
9:39overloaded with information. It helps to
9:42target content to fit their needs. For
9:44example, educational briefs for elected
9:47officials involved in decision-making in
9:49curriculum for students and public
9:51stakeholders or quick hits and factoids
9:54designed to grab the public's attention
9:57and encourage further learning.
10:00Accessibility. If you manage to grab
10:02attention, how accessible is your
10:05message and how do you retain interest?
10:07It helps if article and website
10:10headlines use questions like how big is
10:13the debt? How much does the government
10:14spend on defense? That content is more
10:17likely to come up high in Google
10:19searches because those are the kinds of
10:21questions that people type in as the
10:23public debate unfolds.
10:26You need to recognize that fiscal
10:28choices are ones that people whoever
10:31they are really don't want to make. That
10:33is raising taxes or cutting spending. So
10:36it's important to emphasize what is
10:38saved or gained not what is lost.
10:42Recent Gallup polling in the US shows
10:44that more people prefer spending cuts to
10:47tax increases, but only as long as the
10:50programs cut are not the ones they
10:52benefit from. And of course, there are
10:54sharp political differences. The left
10:57prefers tax increases, but not to the
11:00same degree that the right prefers
11:03spending cuts.
11:06For individuals, making the topic
11:08personal helps. The foundation's in
11:11internal polling shows that there is
11:13greater support for a message to secure
11:15retirement for retirement for current
11:17and near retirees than for a message
11:20that calls for reform or reducing costs
11:23or saving the system for future
11:25generations.
11:26When appealing to the public interest,
11:28bring the issue closer to home. What's
11:31at stake for my community? focus focus
11:34on local in infrastructure and other
11:36known community projects promoting
11:38instead of promoting the national good.
11:42At the political level, elected
11:44officials are more likely to pay
11:46attention to topics related to the inter
11:48im immediate impact of tax and spending
11:50decisions than they are to discussions
11:52of policies to pro to policies to
11:55improve long-term fiscal sustainability.
11:59And I think we're seeing an example of
12:01all these approaches playing out in the
12:03current situation in the US. The
12:06Democrats are emphasizing an imminent
12:09increase in health insurance costs that
12:12affects people's personal interests and
12:14politicians electoral interests. They're
12:16not talking about the less tangible cost
12:18of a government shutdown or any impact
12:21on deficits and debt. And of course,
12:24avoid jargon. RIFFs or reductions in
12:27forces in the US. Um, fiscal rules,
12:30triple locks are shortcuts for
12:32explaining policy decisions. But even to
12:35my ear, they sound like inside baseball,
12:38we say, or maybe inside football
12:40everywhere else. They distance experts
12:42from non-experts. Does knowing these
12:45terms really indicate elevated fiscal
12:47literacy?
12:49Finally, quality. How is your message
12:52perceived? This is where you establish
12:54your voice. For tone, do you want to
12:57appear confident and credible,
13:00authoritative, or attention gravity? In
13:03terms of position,
13:05are you politically neutral or do you
13:07have a clear point of view,
13:08understanding that they may narrow your
13:10appeal? In terms of format, first you
13:13have to grab people's attention. So
13:15using one pages, blogs, graphics,
13:17interactive tools may work. And you can
13:20always link to deeper material for the
13:23people people who want to know more.
13:26So you have to start with well where
13:28does your audience get their
13:29information? I think there are two
13:32dimensions to think about this issue.
13:33One it has to do with passive
13:35aggressive. Um how much effort or
13:37promotion are you willing to allocate to
13:40dissemination of your content? And
13:42secondly direct and indirect. Do you go
13:45straight to your ultimate audience? I'd
13:47like to make a comment about websites.
13:48Most websites are passive, but don't
13:51ignore the impact of word of mouth for
13:52dissemination.
13:54People who know about your website can
13:56then provide links to bring other people
13:58to them. Now, thinking about mass media,
14:03it's a challenging time. It used to be
14:06that you could rely on mainstream media
14:08to diss disseminate your information.
14:11But now, of course, mass media is having
14:14a difficult very difficult time. Gallup
14:17finds that in the US trust in mass media
14:20has plummeted. In 2000 over 51% of
14:24respondents said they had a great deal
14:25or a fair amount of trust in mass media.
14:29That number is 34% today. And 34% today
14:34report that they have no trust at all in
14:35mass media, up from 12% in 2000. Trust
14:39varies by party identification. Only 8%
14:43of Republicans on the right have a great
14:45deal or a fair amount of trust in media
14:47versus 51% of Democrats. And there are
14:50differences by age. Those 65 and older
14:53are more likely to report that they
14:55trust mass media than any other age
14:58group. 30 to 49 year olds are show the
15:01least amount of trust, followed by those
15:04under the age of 30 and those between
15:06the ages of 50 to 64.
15:09So finally, I'd like to talk a little
15:11bit about social media. I'm by no means
15:13an expert on social media. Why is Tik
15:16Tok important? This chart shows that the
15:19percentage of US adults who regularly
15:22get news from Tik Tok varies by age
15:24group, particularly for 18 to 29 year
15:27olds, but increasingly for those 30 to
15:3049 30 to 49. That means if you want to
15:34re reach that audience, it's it's
15:36difficult to avoid Tik Tok. But I don't
15:39know how much you've experienced Tik
15:41Tok, but you know that the quality of
15:43information is at best mixed if not
15:47deplorable. But that means it's very
15:49important for us to identify good
15:51influences who can spread your message
15:54this way.
15:57I end my talk with some examples of
16:00content that focus on fiscal issues. I'm
16:03I'm not going to go through all this. I
16:05I assume that this these this slide will
16:07be available to people to look at if
16:08they want to later. It's not an
16:10exhaustive list, but it provides um
16:14it'll let you know what other people are
16:16doing and maybe it'll inspire you.
16:20So, thank you. That concludes my talk.
16:23Our countries can't put our fiscal
16:25policies on a more stain sustainable
16:27path without your help. Um, your efforts
16:30are incredibly important and have an
16:33excellent possibility of raising fiscal
16:36literacy.
16:38If nothing else, you can help counter
16:40the the misinformation that's
16:42proliferating. So, I want to thank you
16:44for your work and thank you for
16:46listening today.
16:54[Music]

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