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Strategy: Gefährliches Ponzi Scheme oder die Investmentchance des Jahrzehnts? — Transcript

by Phantom by HKCM · 2,078 words · 378 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00What if one of Wall Street's most
0:02controversial business models is
0:03currently on the verge of its next major
0:05uptrend cycle? Michael Saylor has turned
0:08an ordinary software company into one of
0:10the largest Bitcoin treasury companies
0:13in the world. A company that invests
0:15billions into Bitcoin and raises capital
0:18through ever-new financial instruments.
0:21To some, it is financial genius; to
0:23others, a dangerous construct whose
0:26success depends on a constant flow of
0:29new capital into the system. And, of all
0:32times, the chart is currently showing us
0:34a remarkable constellation.
0:37Because after Strategy collapsed from
0:40its high of 543 US dollars down to 81 US
0:43dollars, the stock may have formed a
0:45long-term significant bottom in June
0:482026.
0:51Should this bottom be confirmed, our
0:54Elliott Wave forecast sees long-term
0:56price targets of at least 614 US dollars
0:59, up to 944 US dollars.
1:02But if Strategy falls below 81 US
1:04dollars, the entire picture changes.
1:07To understand what is at stake here, we
1:09must go back to the beginning.
1:14The year is 1989. Michael Saylor,
1:17together with his business partners,
1:19founds a company called MicroStrategy.
1:21The business idea initially has
1:23absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin.
1:25MicroStrategy develops software that
1:27allows companies to analyze large
1:29amounts of data and make business
1:30decisions.
1:31In 1998, the company goes public. But
1:35just two years later, MicroStrategy
1:37experiences its first major crisis.
1:39During the dot-com bubble, the stock
1:41initially shoots upwards. In March 2000
1:43, however, the company has to announce
1:45that previous financial results must be
1:47corrected. Allegations from the US
1:49Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC
1:50) follow due to incorrect revenue and
1:52earnings filings. The stock falls more
1:55than 60%in a single trading day.
1:58Michael Saylor thus experiences early on
2:00how quickly a story celebrated by Wall
2:01Street can turn into a historic bear
2:03market.
2:05But MicroStrategy survives, and about
2:07two decades later, Saylor makes a
2:09decision that will change the company
2:11forever. The year is 2020. The
2:14coronavirus pandemic is shaking the
2:16global economy. Central banks lower
2:18interest rates, governments pass massive
2:20stimulus packages, and the money supply
2:22grows rapidly. Michael Saylor begins to
2:25question the long-term purchasing power
2:27of the US dollar. His reasoning is
2:29simple.
2:31What happens to a company's capital
2:33reserves if the money in which those
2:34reserves are held loses purchasing power
2:36over the long term?
2:38For Saylor, the answer is Bitcoin. In
2:41August 2020, MicroStrategy buys its
2:44first 21,454 Bitcoin for around 250
2:48million US dollars. What begins as an
2:51alternative use for excess liquidity
2:53develops into a completely new corporate
2:56strategy. But Saylor goes one step
2:58further.
2:59He realizes that a publicly traded
3:01company can not only invest existing
3:03capital.
3:04It can also repeatedly raise new capital
3:06through the capital markets, and this is
3:08exactly where Strategy's actual business
3:10model begins.
3:13Let us imagine a company whose stock is
3:15valued significantly higher on the
3:17market than the calculated value of its
3:19Bitcoin holdings minus its liabilities.
3:22In this situation, the company can issue
3:24new shares and use the capital raised to
3:26acquire additional Bitcoin.
3:29The decisive factor is how many Bitcoin
3:31are mathematically attributable to each
3:33fully diluted share.
3:35If Strategy succeeds in raising capital
3:37on attractive terms, the company can
3:39expand its Bitcoin position.
3:42This creates a potentially
3:43self-reinforcing mechanism. As Bitcoin
3:46rises, the value of the company's
3:47reserves increases. If the valuation of
3:50the Strategy stock rises simultaneously
3:52, the opportunities to raise further
3:55capital may improve. With this capital,
3:58Strategy can once again buy Bitcoin.
4:01But what happens if Bitcoin falls, if
4:03the valuation premium disappears, and if
4:05investors are suddenly no longer willing
4:08to provide capital to the company on
4:10attractive terms; then the dynamics can
4:12reverse.
4:14And that is precisely why Strategy is
4:16not just a Bitcoin stock.
4:18It is a complex interplay of Bitcoin,
4:20capital market liquidity, and investor
4:22confidence.
4:24Since the decision in 2020, Strategy has
4:26gone through several extreme market
4:28phases.
4:30Initially, the stock experienced a
4:32massive upward movement during the
4:34Bitcoin bull market of 2020 and 2021.
4:38But when Bitcoin enters a severe bear
4:40market in 2022, MicroStrategy also comes
4:42under pressure.
4:44The stock loses about three-quarters of
4:46its value over the course of the year.
4:47But then the market turns again.
4:50Bitcoin recovers, institutional adoption
4:53increases, and MicroStrategy is
4:54increasingly viewed as an instrument
4:57with which investors can take a
4:58particularly pronounced participation in
5:01Bitcoin's development.
5:03In November 2024, the stock finally
5:06reaches a high of 543 US dollars. But
5:09within our Elliott wave count, there is
5:11a special feature. We do not interpret
5:14the entire upward movement since 2020 as
5:17a classic five-part impulse, but as a
5:20three-part higher-level corrective
5:23structure.
5:25The internal waves A and C have each
5:27formed impulsive substructures.
5:31And this distinction is crucial, because
5:34a market can rise massively over several
5:36years and still be within a higher-level
5:39corrective structure.
5:42Since the high in November 2024,
5:44Strategy has again been sold off
5:46massively, and the stock reacts at times
5:49significantly more volatile than Bitcoin
5:52itself.
5:53Up to that low in June 2026, which is
5:55decisive for our current forecast.
5:58But before we look at this potential
6:00bottom more closely, we must talk about
6:03another development. Because Michael
6:05Saylor has significantly expanded his
6:07financing models.
6:08One of the most interesting instruments
6:11bears the name STRC, also known as
6:13Stretch. STRC is a preferred stock of
6:16Strategy whose market price is to be
6:18kept as close to 100 US dollars as
6:21possible through a variable dividend
6:23policy.
6:24In 2026, the annual dividend yield was
6:28at times 12%.
6:30That sounds exceptionally attractive at
6:32first, but these 12%are not a risk-free
6:34interest rate.
6:36The dividend is not guaranteed, the
6:38market price can fluctuate, and the
6:40instrument carries the economic risk of
6:42Strategy.
6:43For the company, Stretch opens up
6:45another opportunity to raise capital
6:47from investors who are primarily looking
6:49for ongoing income. And with precisely
6:52this capital, Strategy can in turn
6:54finance its Bitcoin strategy.
6:56But now the story gets even more
6:58interesting.
7:00In the podcast The Diary of a CEO with
7:02Steven Bartlett, Michael Saylor talked
7:04about how he used artificial
7:06intelligence to develop his financial
7:08products.
7:10According to his account, he spent
7:12several hours discussing various
7:13structures with ChatGPT to develop a
7:15financing instrument with regular
7:17distributions and the most stable price
7:19possible.
7:20And this raises a fundamental question
7:22for me.
7:23Isn't this exactly one of the most
7:25sensible applications of artificial
7:27intelligence: not just to generate text
7:30or images, but to structure complex
7:32problems, combine existing concepts, and
7:34thereby develop new approaches to
7:36solutions?
7:37Of course, this does not mean that
7:39ChatGPT has proven the economic
7:42viability of such a financial product,
7:44but it does show how artificial
7:46intelligence can be used as a tool for
7:49financial innovation.
7:51But is an innovative financing structure
7:53automatically a sustainable business
7:55model?
7:57Critics repeatedly compare MicroStrategy
7:59to a Ponzi scheme.
8:00But we need to differentiate here.
8:03A classic Ponzi scheme deceives
8:05investors about the actual economic
8:07basis and finances supposed returns from
8:10the deposits of new investors.
8:13MicroStrategy, on the other hand, owns
8:15real Bitcoin holdings, publishes
8:16financial reports, and discloses its
8:18capital market transactions.
8:21Merely raising new capital does not make
8:23a company a Ponzi scheme.
8:26The decisive criticism lies elsewhere.
8:29How sustainable is a model whose growth
8:32depends significantly on the demand for
8:34new financial instruments, the valuation
8:36of its stock, and the long-term
8:38performance of Bitcoin?
8:41As long as the capital markets support
8:43the model, MicroStrategy can have
8:45enormous financing opportunities. But in
8:47a prolonged period of weakness, dividend
8:50obligations, dilution, and a declining
8:52valuation premium can become serious
8:55burdens. And this brings us to the
8:57crucial question.
8:58Will Wall Street continue to play along
9:00with this story in the next market cycle
9:02? If we look at the long-term
9:04MicroStrategy chart, we can see a
9:06three-part upward structure since 2020.
9:09We interpret this as part of a complex
9:12corrective formation.
9:15Within our count, the previous upward
9:18movement could have completed the
9:20higher-level wave W. The subsequent
9:22correction until June 2026 could, in
9:25turn, have formed wave X. Our bullish
9:28scenario now assumes that MicroStrategy
9:30is beginning the higher-level wave Y.
9:33This would internally form as an ABC
9:35zigzag.
9:37And the special thing about this is that
9:40the first wave A of such a zigzag can
9:42itself form a five-part impulse.
9:44That is precisely why the current
9:46reaction from the bottom area is so
9:48critical.
9:50For if our assumption is confirmed,
9:52remarkable long-term price targets
9:54result from the Fibonacci expansion of
9:57the higher-level waves W and X. The 100
9:59%expansion of wave Y is around 614 US
10:02dollars.
10:03And with an expansion to 161.8%, another
10:07long-term price target emerges at around
10:11944 US dollars.
10:14This means that, starting from a low of
10:1681 US dollars, we are talking about a
10:19theoretical price potential of around
10:22650 to a maximum of 1050%.
10:25But these projections are tied to one
10:27decisive condition.
10:30The potential bottom at 81 US dollars
10:32must hold, and the short-term structure
10:34must confirm that the next upward cycle
10:36may have indeed begun.
10:38Since the low at 81 US dollars, Strategy
10:41has completed an initial five-part
10:43upward structure within our count. That
10:46is a first constructive sign, but not
10:48yet final confirmation, because after
10:50such an impulse we first expect a
10:52corrective intermediate move, and that
10:54is precisely what could currently be
10:56forming as an internal wave 2. For this
10:59correction, we are particularly watching
11:01the area between the 50%and 78.6%
11:04Fibonacci retracement of the previous
11:06upward move. If Strategy reacts
11:09bullishly within this zone and
11:11subsequently forms new intermediate
11:13highs, it would support our assumption
11:15of an incipient wave 3.
11:17Within this third wave, Fibonacci
11:20expansions of 161.8%and possibly 261.8%
11:24would be relevant projection areas.
11:28And exactly such a development would
11:30significantly strengthen the scenario of
11:32a larger bottom, because then we would
11:34not just have an initial impulsive
11:36reaction, but the possible beginning of
11:38a higher-level wave A within our
11:40long-term wave Y. But what happens if
11:42Strategy does not confirm this structure
11:44?
11:45The 81 US dollar level will be the
11:47deciding factor here. If the stock falls
11:49below this low, our current assumption
11:52of a completed bottom would be
11:53invalidated. Then we would have to
11:55assume that the higher-level correction
11:57is not yet over.
11:59Within our alternative wave count, this
12:02would bring at least one further move
12:04toward the 88.7%Fibonacci retracement of
12:06the higher-level wave into focus.
12:10And that would be an extremely critical
12:12development, because the longer a stock
12:14is in such a deep correction, the more
12:16important the question becomes as to
12:18whether the original investment thesis
12:20still holds at all. The Fibonacci level
12:23itself is not a fundamental limit.
12:25Rather, it shows us how deeply the
12:27market has already corrected the
12:29previous upward movement. And with
12:31Strategy, such a development would raise
12:33another question. What happens if Wall
12:36Street loses confidence in the long-term
12:39financing story? And with that, we come
12:41back to the initial question. Is
12:43Strategy a Ponzi scheme or a brilliant
12:45business model?
12:47I think the decisive question is not
12:48which of these two extremes we choose,
12:50but under what conditions the business
12:52model works.
12:54Michael Saylor has created a financing
12:57structure that allows a company to
12:59accumulate Bitcoin on an extraordinary
13:01scale.
13:02At the same time, this creates risks
13:04that go far beyond the mere Bitcoin
13:06price development. And that is exactly
13:08why our Elliott Wave forecast is so
13:10interesting. Because while public
13:12discussion revolves primarily around the
13:14business model, we are observing a
13:15possible structural trend reversal in
13:17the chart.
13:18If Strategy confirms the first five-part
13:20impulse and builds new highs after the
13:22intermediate correction, the next major
13:25upward cycle could have begun.
13:27With long-term projection targets at 614
13:30and 944 US dollars.
13:33If, on the other hand, the stock falls
13:35below 81 US dollars, we must discard our
13:37bullish assumption. And one thing we
13:39must never forget at this point. There
13:42are no guarantees in the stock market.
13:44And even the most brilliant business
13:46model does not protect a stock from a
13:47historic bear market.
13:49In the end, it is not just the story a
13:51company tells that decides. And even the
13:54most brilliant business model does not
13:56protect a stock from a historic bear
13:58market.
13:59In the end, it is not just the story a
14:01company tells that decides, but also
14:04whether the capital market is willing to
14:06carry that story forward.

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