YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Stop Entering Trades Before You See This Confirmation (9:30 Entry Model)

Stop Entering Trades Before You See This Confirmation (9:30 Entry Model) — Transcript

by AM · 4,176 words · 592 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00I see traders all the time who can
0:02effortlessly get their bias right, but
0:03when it comes time to actually take an
0:05entry, it all falls apart. And that's
0:07because they don't have a real complete
0:09process around how they get on side with
0:11the market. So, what we're talking about
0:13here is not some random entry pattern
0:15that you're going to find at any given
0:17time of the day with no backing behind
0:19your trade idea. Actually, quite the
0:21opposite. This is something that gives
0:22you true narrative behind the entries
0:25that you're putting on in the market.
0:26And we're going to be using a very key
0:28time, the 9:30 market open, which is a
0:30main volatility driver of the day, which
0:32has a very specific function that I've
0:34been talking about for years and years,
0:37and use actively in my trading. Now, the
0:39most important part of an entry is what
0:41you do before it. So, we're going to
0:43talk about how we're framing the trade
0:45and the actual confirmation alignment to
0:47get to the point of where we're
0:48considering an entry alongside the 9:30
0:51open. Let's start here with this first
0:52real trade example. We're going to go
0:54through three for this entire video, so
0:56you get a really good understanding. And
0:58all of these are from the past one to
0:59two trading weeks. This is one of those
1:01things I don't have to search far in my
1:03own trading to find examples for this.
1:05And that to me is important because I
1:07don't like to pull from hindsight where
1:09I could pick out any little detail I'd
1:11like. I'm going for my recent trading,
1:13things that we talked about in advanced,
1:15and executed in the live market. So,
1:17this here is the pre-market plan for
1:19this trading day. We're going into the
1:21development of that overnight session,
1:23and defining one very specific level
1:25that we know has to be engaged. So, you
1:27can see here the plan is simple. We're
1:29waiting for previous day high to be
1:30engaged, and watching the development
1:32likely on NQ since it's the closest to
1:34that level. ES was propped a bit lower,
1:36so we know NQ is far more likely to pop
1:39up into this level. And then I can also
1:41assume this is paired with the open
1:42because we were pushing towards 9:30,
1:45and that's the only thing we have to
1:46focus on. What is the development on
1:48this relevant swing? Are we going to
1:50break out or manipulate at 9:30, and
1:53then we can align the rest of our steps
1:55here. Our entire plan for this day is
1:58contained to a reaction at this high at
2:01a specific time, and there's only two
2:03things that we're looking for to
2:05validate a trade. I don't have to
2:07predict the future, I just have to know
2:09what I'm demanding from the market, and
2:10if it happens, then I'm going to take a
2:12trade with it. And alongside that, I
2:13know this high matters because let's
2:16imagine price breaks down from here.
2:18We're going to leave a failure swing to
2:21this extreme high on the daily, and I
2:23don't trade away from failure swings. We
2:25have to engage this high in one way or
2:27another. If we're going to go higher, it
2:29needs to break out through this high
2:31because we have failure swings the lows.
2:33If we're going to trade lower, it has to
2:35first manipulate this high. Either
2:37direction is requiring a reaction and a
2:40development at this relevant swing. Just
2:42to really hit this point, we're here on
2:44NQ. This is that high we're referring
2:46to. If you were to look down into the
2:48daily profile, you would see that
2:50overnight session, we have the 18 candle
2:52making a run higher, the 1:00 candle is
2:54consolidating below this relevant high,
2:56and neither NQ or ES has reached this
2:59relevant swing. So, we need at least one
3:01of them to hit that high first. And we
3:04can imagine at the open of the 8:00
3:05candle, if we break out through this
3:08relevant high, we are aligned with an 18
3:10candle reversal to the upside. If we
3:12manipulate this high, then it's going to
3:14be an 8:00 candle reversal to the
3:16downside. So, we have this condition
3:18where all things are aligned. The daily
3:20profile is already set to really support
3:22either direction. We're waiting for a
3:24relevant swing to be engaged, which is
3:26our higher time frame level that we're
3:28requiring, and it's aligning with a 9:30
3:30open to get a volatility driver to give
3:33real narrative behind are we going to
3:34break out or manipulate this high, and
3:37what does that mean for the rest of that
3:39trade. And as we'd expect here, since NQ
3:41is so close to it already, the
3:42volatility from 9:30, that market open,
3:45reached up into that relevant high, and
3:47we are gauging the reaction here. Again,
3:49we don't need to predict, we just need
3:51to understand what is the reaction and
3:53very quickly it's becoming obvious. This
3:54is NQ here. We've run up into that
3:57relevant high and quickly expanded back
3:59down. We can look the same on ES. We
4:01have that relevant high that we noted
4:03out the exact same one. We've traded up
4:05into it at 9:30. The volatility injected
4:08into the market and then immediately
4:09turned back down. That is a sign for a
4:11manipulation. If we zoom back out to
4:13that daily profile, what are we seeing
4:15the development of? It is an 8:00 candle
4:18reversal inside of the daily profile
4:20alongside that relevant high on the
4:22daily, which is our framework backing
4:24this idea. But the open itself is the
4:26true confirmation of that reaction
4:29itself. So now when we see this, we are
4:31understanding that New York session is
4:32putting in a high of day. The expansion
4:34should start at this time because 9:30
4:37is when volatility hits the market and
4:38that's when the expansion should take
4:40place. This here is our first
4:41confirmation on that 15-minute closure
4:43back through these up-close candles that
4:45we've set a high of the New York session
4:47and potential high of day that we're not
4:50going to take this as an entry because I
4:52don't enter on reversals inside the
4:54daily candle. But if we have this
4:55closure form a new continuation
4:57signature after we expand away, then
4:59that becomes my entry. When you're
5:01trading expansion daily candles, you
5:03don't need the higher low of day. You're
5:05trading a very large range, one that's
5:07probably going to go further than you
5:08actually expect. So when we have the
5:11higher low of day potentially
5:13confirming, we let that go. We're not
5:15taking an entry on it because many times
5:17there's false reversals. We'd want a
5:19real confirmation of it by getting an
5:21expansion away from that higher low and
5:23then a new continuation signature where
5:25we can position for that move. As this
5:27continues to play out, you can see how
5:289:30, that main volatility driver of the
5:31day, is bringing intent into the market.
5:34We manipulate that high and we are
5:35quickly expanding away. Compare this
5:37range to the entire overnight session.
5:39This is just 15 minutes here. This is
5:41when we want to be participating. So at
5:43this point I start to draw lower time
5:44frames because we already have our
5:46initial reversal confirmation. I'm
5:48assuming we're in the continuation at
5:50this point. I'm just going to be looking
5:51for opposing candles that end up forming
5:53and closing back through them. And right
5:55here is the moment we get it. Now, I
5:57know I'm on the 4-minute. You can track
5:59this on a 5-minute if you wanted to. The
6:00only difference for me is this is a very
6:02fast-paced market. We're trading that
6:04early New York session, and there's a
6:05lot coming from this 9:30 open in terms
6:08of speed from that market, which means
6:11if there's going to be a signature, I
6:12want to get on side quickly here before
6:14it breaks away. So, I see the signature
6:16on the five. You could wait for that
6:17closure, but often times I'll refine
6:19down. I find it here on the 4-minute, so
6:21I can take this as my entry on this
6:24trade to the downside. The idea behind
6:26an entry like this is we've already done
6:28all the work in our previous steps. We
6:30have the alignment of the daily
6:32framework and the daily profile in that
6:348:00 bearish reversal, which is all
6:36confirmed by this 9:30 open, the
6:39volatility that is hitting the market
6:41here. And once we've confirmed the
6:42manipulation at this high, we've broken
6:45away in an expansion. We assume we are
6:47in the continuation of the daily candle,
6:49and price should expand lower. And in
6:52that expansion leg, when we have
6:54opposing candles that are closed
6:56through, ones that we view as valid,
6:57then we enter when they close back below
7:00in this bearish scenario, put our stop
7:01at the opposing swing, and that should
7:03remain respected as it trades lower
7:05alongside our expectation. So, the rest
7:07of that trade plays out, and we get 2R
7:10on this position. So, you can see that
7:11when we frame the high of the session
7:13and we've started that continuation,
7:15when we break down to lower time frames,
7:17opposing candles that are closed through
7:19end up being respected because the
7:21continuation has that tendency. So, this
7:24becomes our entry signature. But 9:30 is
7:26the catalyst and the narrative behind
7:29this entire framework. This next
7:30example, we're going to take one more
7:32step further, but using the exact same
7:34logic of 9:30 providing the narrative
7:36and confirmation, and simultaneously
7:39giving us the entry to actually position
7:41with the move. You're going to start to
7:42see as we continue to move through this
7:44why this is so effective. I see all the
7:47time traders who are newer to learning
7:49my system or even trading other models.
7:51They like to enter pre-open trying to
7:53predict the move, and that just results
7:55in them taking pattern trade entries,
7:57which obviously doesn't work. This is
8:00something that completely changes that.
8:02But, not only is it helpful for people
8:03who are newer to learning, this applies
8:06at every single stage, even for myself.
8:08A post-open entry with this type of
8:10confirmation is the highest probability
8:12way I get on side with the market to
8:14this day. Going into this next trade
8:16example, we have a similar situation to
8:18the last, but it is slightly different
8:21in the way that the pairs are framed.
8:23When we look through this analysis here,
8:24this was in the morning of this trading
8:26day, we had ES on the left here. This is
8:29the daily chart of ES. We can see we had
8:31a potential range play where the high
8:33were divergences, which are protected
8:36highs on the daily, and failure swings
8:38at the low, so a potential for the rest
8:40of this daily candle to expand into this
8:42target, while NQ was positioned stronger
8:45in that overnight session and had the
8:47potential to break out through its
8:50relevant daily high, which is noted
8:51here. These are opposing frameworks that
8:54we can identify before the day opens.
8:57So, instead of trying to predict which
8:59one is going to play out on these
9:01correlated markets, ES and NQ, we wait
9:04for the open and watch the reaction. So,
9:07I said, "I'll be paying attention to
9:09previous day high on NQ, which is its
9:11relevant swing paired with the open. I'm
9:14really just watching if there's a clear
9:16breakout or manipulation, and then could
9:19align the pair leading that move." So,
9:21this is a condition that we're going
9:22into the day where correlated pairs are
9:25in opposing frameworks. One is better
9:28supporting the downside, and the other
9:30is better supporting the upside inside
9:32of the daily framework in the
9:34development of the daily profile. So,
9:35when that happens, the mistake is to
9:37just jump on side and guess which one's
9:39going to play out. No, we're going to
9:40wait for 9:30 as the confirmation that
9:43volatility, which is going to hit the
9:45market, show the true intent of what's
9:47going to happen, and then whichever pair
9:49leads that move, we are going to trade
9:51that one. Getting into the charts here,
9:53let's be clear on the frameworks that
9:54we're working with here. This is ES on
9:56the daily. We have these failure swings
9:59off the daily lows, deep runs into this
10:01relevant swing here. And then off the
10:03highs, these also look like failure
10:05swings, but if you were to compare it to
10:07NQ at the same time, we have higher
10:09highs where ES has lower highs. So,
10:12these are not true failure swings. These
10:14are highs that we could actually trade
10:15away from because we understand that
10:17they are divergences in the market. Then
10:19on NQ, we have these same failure swings
10:21off the lows, but since it's propped up
10:23a lot higher in that overnight session,
10:25we are engaging this previous day high,
10:27which in this context is a relevant
10:29swing because there's nothing else to
10:31the left. It's an extreme of the current
10:32range. So, what happens there does
10:34matter. And if we look off the lower
10:36time frames here on the 15-minute, or
10:38could even use the 30-minute for a
10:39slightly better perspective, we have
10:41price initially engaging the relevant
10:43high, breaking down off of it, but we
10:45could see there's definitely potential
10:47for a breakout signature if this next
10:4930-minute candle, which is 9:30, were to
10:52expand higher back through this relevant
10:54swing and close above these down close
10:56candles, that is a confirmed breakout
10:59signature, which means we are going to
11:01continue through that relevant high for
11:03the day, and we would trade that move.
11:05If this fails to get a closure and
11:08manipulates and breaks down at 9:30, we
11:11are going to be seeing that as a
11:12manipulation of a relevant high, and
11:14then we would switch over to ES, which
11:16is the weaker pair in this context, and
11:18trade it bearish into these relevant
11:21lows. So, align with our plan, which
11:22we've already established for this day.
11:24We know exactly what we're looking for.
11:26What happens at the open? Did we get an
11:28expansion higher and a closure through?
11:29No, we failed to do so. This is a
11:315-minute time frame. We had price make
11:33an initial move higher, running out that
11:35intraday high, and then aggressively
11:37expanding back down into the range to
11:40get a closure for our initial reversal.
11:42The 9:30 open is not breaking out. It is
11:45manipulating on the stronger pair, which
11:48means we shift our focus over to the
11:50weaker pair in ES. This here is
11:52important to understand. It's at that
11:54moment when the stronger pair
11:55manipulates its intraday high. We have
11:57just formed a divergence with the weaker
12:00pair in ES, which is confirming the high
12:03of this New York session. So, we are
12:04already in the continuation on ES. So,
12:07that trigger, that 9:30 open, the
12:10narrative that provided is telling me to
12:12look short on ES and that we're already
12:15in the continuation. So, that same
12:17signature at 9:30, which is confirming
12:18the high of day, one, I wouldn't enter
12:20on the stronger pair willingly because
12:22it's going to have less follow-through
12:24to the downside, but I'm also not going
12:25to enter on the reversal because NQ's at
12:27its high of day. But, ES is already in
12:30the continuation. A previous session
12:32already established a high of day. So,
12:34this is validating an entry. 9:30, all
12:37at once, confirmed the direction of that
12:40daily candle, formed the high of day,
12:42confirmed the leading pair, and gave us
12:44timing and a signature to get onside
12:47with this move. So, this closure on the
12:494-minute, which is again just a refined
12:51version of the 5-minute because it looks
12:52more clear and defined for the entry
12:54signature, that closure below is an
12:56entry, stop loss at the opposing swing,
12:58and I'm looking for at least 2R. 2R here
13:00makes complete sense because our target
13:02is far below that. So, we just allow
13:04this to play out, and you get that very
13:06fast expansion. These 9:30 entries
13:09should not be lagging through time. The
13:11overnight session is made for lagging
13:13price action. The open is a determining
13:16time where the expansion should take
13:18place if ever. So, that's where we
13:20really like to enter and we get these
13:21really quick follow-throughs. That
13:23initial push off the open provided a
13:25scale beyond 2R, which is exactly what
13:27we're looking for. And then throughout
13:28the later part of the day, a eventually
13:30made it to our target of those daily
13:32failure swing lows, which is the initial
13:34objective that we were looking for on
13:35this trade. We go back out to the daily,
13:37and we can see that how 9:30 reacted at
13:40the relevant high on NQ in the form of a
13:42manipulation is the reason we were
13:44trading short, but we didn't enter on NQ
13:47because ES was leading that move with
13:49weakness and already showing a bearish
13:51framework and a bearish daily profile.
13:53This final trade example is hitting on a
13:55different condition, which I actually
13:57think is the one that most people get
13:58caught up on because it's one that where
14:01you see the pre-market development, it
14:02makes you think you should take a
14:04pre-open entry, but in reality, waiting
14:06for 9:30 still provides the highest
14:08quality entry with the best
14:10confirmation. The plan on this day was
14:12extremely simple and straightforward. We
14:14had NQ with bullish daily framework, a
14:17manipulation of a relevant low paired
14:19with a divergence for confluence, and
14:21then we look at the daily profile, and
14:23we already had a low of day that was
14:24established. We had the 18 candle making
14:27an opposing run into the relevant low,
14:29the 1:00 candle expanding back higher
14:32into the range that is a manipulation in
14:35the overnight session, and the 8:00
14:37candle going into that 9:30 open was
14:40already starting that continuation. You
14:42can see here I said in the profile, you
14:44can already assume a low of the New York
14:46session as long as the open supports the
14:49move higher with a signature. You don't
14:51have to take an entry before the open.
14:53You don't have to predict if it's going
14:54to move higher. Even if the bias is
14:56one-sided, you can still wait for the
14:58open and get the best confirmation of
15:00this to actually play out. This daily
15:02chart is already showing a manipulation
15:04in intraday inside of this daily candle,
15:07and we could assume we're going to trade
15:08away in this framework to reach up into
15:11this opposing relevant high. But then we
15:13can add on the layer of the daily
15:15profile where the 18 candle makes an
15:16opposing run, the 1:00 candle expands
15:19back up into the range closing above
15:21that daily relevant low. That is a
15:23manipulation intraday, and we're already
15:26in the continuation for the New York
15:28session, and we've started to expand. We
15:30can drop down to these lower time frames
15:32and see we have these hourly down close
15:34candles, and these to me are important.
15:36And I'll show you why. If we go out to
15:37the 7-hour here to see the daily
15:39profile, because London session expanded
15:41back up into the range, we've already
15:43manipulated a relevant low, which is an
15:45extreme of the market. So, if that's
15:47already taken place, we formed a low of
15:49day that we don't need to trade back to.
15:51So, I can set an invalidation point from
15:53the opposing low to the closing price of
15:56that London session, and know that we
15:58should not trade back to this point
15:59inside of New York if we're already in
16:01that continuation. And then when we go
16:03down to the hourly, we can see that
16:04hourly down close candles goes towards
16:06the extreme of that invalidation point.
16:08Once we've closed above here in the New
16:10York session, we have no reason to
16:12return back down to this low or paired
16:14with this invalidation point. So, we
16:16expect this to support the move in the
16:18continuation for New York. So, if 9:30
16:21forms that signature and doesn't just
16:23expand to the downside, creates a
16:25signature in the continuation, that is
16:27our trigger, our narrative backing this
16:29idea that we're going to take a long.
16:31One important thing to note here that
16:32you're probably already seeing under my
16:34system, is that when you're at 9:30,
16:36there's only two things you're ever
16:38looking for under every single scenario.
16:41It's either a higher low of day has not
16:43been established yet, and you are
16:45looking for 9:30 to do so, to manipulate
16:47that intraday higher low, and form the
16:49reversal, and then you trade the
16:51continuation after. Or, since you're
16:53using daily profiles, you've already
16:55determined that in this current day, a
16:57higher low has already been established,
17:00and New York is in the continuation.
17:029:30 just has to support that idea and
17:06provide the signature to then expand it
17:08in the continuation. There's nothing
17:10else to this. So, under this particular
17:12framework, we already have a low of day
17:14that's established. 9:30 should not be
17:15trading back to our invalidation points,
17:17definitely not back to the intraday low.
17:19if It should support this move higher
17:22and provide us the signature to get on
17:24side. If it doesn't do that, we don't
17:27have a trade. Here on the 15-minute, you
17:28can see 9:30 hits the market, makes a
17:31very brief opposing run, but respects
17:33our hourly down close candles, and then
17:36immediately turns back higher. This is
17:38support backed by the open. The
17:40volatility is showing intent to want to
17:42move higher. While I wouldn't enter on
17:44this 15-minute closure because the stop
17:45loss is extremely wide, I know we're
17:48already in the continuation, and we
17:49should see a fast move to the upside.
17:52I'm just going to be looking for my
17:53signature following this. That's where
17:55after this impulsive move paired with
17:57the open, we are seeing an entry
17:59signature following it up. Refined down
18:01on the 5-minute, this is the opposing
18:03candle I'm going to use as my entry
18:05because if we look off these lows, if we
18:07compare it with ES at the same time,
18:09we're seeing a lower low where NQ, the
18:12leading pair in this move, is a higher
18:14low. So, this is a divergence changing
18:17the opposing candle that I'm going to
18:18pull from. With this in place, I take an
18:20entry on the open of that next candle,
18:22stop loss at the opposing swing with
18:24that divergence, and I'm looking for at
18:26least 2R on this trade, but ultimately,
18:28we do have a target on the other side of
18:30the market that is beyond that 2R.
18:32That's exactly what we want to see. A
18:33realistic target that's still open. It's
18:36early in the New York session. 9:30
18:38should move price fast. I have a 2R set.
18:40I can scale out before this target's
18:42even reached. So, I don't need anything
18:43extreme to capture the extent of what I
18:45want on this move. It continues to play
18:47out respecting the opposing candles and
18:50a fast expansion into that direction.
18:52This is not lagging price action. We're
18:54not sitting through the overnight
18:56session where it takes hours for a move
18:58to play out. We're waiting until post
19:00open where volatility is the highest
19:02inside of the day, waiting for a
19:04signature after we see support backed by
19:06that volatility, and we're entering in
19:08the continuation towards our targets.
19:10Zooming back out to the daily, what we
19:11did there was extremely simple. We set
19:14the plan before the move even happens
19:16because what we're looking for is not
19:18complicated. It's very repeatable and
19:19systematic. And then the open comes
19:21through and supports that idea. We had
19:23the wick of the daily candle already
19:25forming, alignment of the bullish daily
19:28profile. We're just looking to capture
19:30this follow-up on the daily candle for
19:32that continuation. This is our move
19:34here, post 9:30, supporting the idea we
19:37already have, giving us confirmation and
19:39timing of the entry. And we enter in
19:41this time that is giving us the fastest
19:43move and the rest of that daily candle
19:45up into our target. This video is all
19:47about making things as easy as possible
19:50for you. There's no more predicting, no
19:52guessing, no random entries at random
19:55times of the day. You have a defined
19:57process and a specific trigger that
20:00you're looking for to validate or
20:02invalidate the ideas you have in the
20:04market. And it's all around that logic
20:06of the 9:30 open like you just saw in
20:08these real trade examples. So, with that
20:09said, that is everything I have for you
20:11in this video. I hope you found it
20:13valuable and I will see you in the next
20:15one.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Stop Entering Trades Before You See This Confirmation (9:30 Entry Model) by AM, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,176 words across 592 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.