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Stock Tuesday with Unraveller Episode 1 — Transcript

by Unravel Trading · 12,384 words · 2,008 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Welcome in guys.
0:02You guys this has been a long overdue
0:05and
0:06I don't even remember the last time I
0:07did a YouTube live. I've never done a
0:09YouTube live in a while.
0:11The
0:13I used to post YouTube videos but never
0:15done any YouTube live. So this is my
0:16first YouTube live. Hopefully first of
0:19many.
0:20Um so what I want to do use these
0:22sessions. It may not be a Sunday.
0:24Sometimes I might just do it mid week.
0:25Right? I really haven't figured out what
0:27I'm going to do but just to get things
0:29started. I don't want to
0:30you know get a big production set up and
0:33all of that. You know I just want to
0:34give you guys some uh
0:35some knowledge. Give you guys some game.
0:37Talk about the markets, you know?
0:40And help you guys in any way possible.
0:42Right? It's it's a It's not a lot of
0:44work for me so that's what I want to
0:45keep that I want to keep it that way. I
0:46don't want to you know go over crazy
0:49like you know the the big YouTubers. I
0:51don't want to do all of that stuff. All
0:53right.
0:54So first things first, right? So let's
0:56talk about the market in general. So
0:57what's happening lately?
1:00So
1:02you guys I mean I'm it'll be unless
1:04you've been living under a rock you guys
1:06know that
1:07there is a big big
1:10problem happening right now, right? So
1:12the the whole trade war that's
1:13happening. If you guys have been around
1:15Trump's first presidency there was a
1:18trade war back at that time where we
1:20imposed tariffs on China and several
1:22other countries
1:23um for trade, right? Now Trump's again
1:28back in office and we have again
1:32unprecedentedly
1:33have
1:34imposed tariffs on not one country, two
1:36country, but whole lot hundreds of
1:38countries.
1:39And uh
1:41those tariffs went into effect. The
1:42first round went into effect and the new
1:45round is going to go into effect soon.
1:47Right?
1:48Now
1:50the biggest thing is market did not
1:53price in the extent of which these
1:55tariffs
1:57were going to be, right? People thought
1:59that oh, it's just going to be 10%. If
2:00you guys remember when on liberation
2:03day, right?
2:04The initial reaction to price action was
2:06the market went up.
2:07Why? Because everyone just kind of
2:09assumed, including the market, that it's
2:11just going to be 10% all around, right?
2:1410% tariffs on everyone, right?
2:18But to to everyone's surprise when Trump
2:20came with that, you know, that board
2:22with
2:22some numbers.
2:24If you guys actually, you know, the math
2:26behind those numbers, it's actually kind
2:27of stupid, but that's the whole point,
2:29right? They want to create reaction.
2:32They want to they want a big reaction.
2:35And those numbers are absolutely crazy.
2:37They're based on the deficit.
2:39And it's going to cause a lot of
2:41problems.
2:43Now, the biggest problem is
2:46all of this is happening in a in a in
2:48the media setting, right? So, right now
2:50everything is like it's not happening
2:52behind closed doors like how it's
2:54supposed to be.
2:55Right? You would want
2:58your
2:59business dealings, political dealings
3:01done behind closed doors, and
3:03news announcements. That's typically how
3:05you want business done.
3:07But
3:08Trump is Trump, right? He wants
3:11the publicity. He wants to show that
3:14he's the boss.
3:15And that's exactly what he's doing.
3:18He's putting all the other countries out
3:20there, China for example, Europe, whole
3:23of Europe, right?
3:25And into the spotlight, and he's
3:27basically daring them to act, right? Or
3:29rather telling them do not react, just
3:32come to the table, let's negotiate.
3:34But
3:35all these other countries
3:38they got to show strength. They can't be
3:39bullied over, right? Come on, who's just
3:41like if if someone's like who's daring
3:43you to fight, you're not just going to
3:44be like okay, I'm just going to take it,
3:46right? Some countries will.
3:48Some countries won't. China did not.
3:51China retaliated, and they said that
3:53we're going to impose tariffs as well.
3:54Europe is preparing some on their own.
3:57Right? And some countries are willing to
3:58come to the negotiation table and work
4:00out a deal.
4:02Right? And uh
4:04it's uh
4:06The biggest problem is
4:08because it's happening at this scale and
4:10the tariffs are going to go into effect,
4:12market hates uncertainty. And all of
4:15these all these tariffs are going to do
4:16is there's two two flavors to it, right?
4:18One is we want all our jobs to come back
4:21manufacturing jobs to come back here. We
4:22want a fair deal. All of that is good.
4:24We all are we all are we're all on the
4:26same page for that.
4:27But the other flip side is
4:29as of this moment, if these tariffs
4:31going to play, look at Nike stock, look
4:33at all of these stocks that rely on
4:35you know manufacturing abroad, cars,
4:37this and that, right?
4:39They are all going to take a big hit,
4:41meaning companies are going to take a
4:42big earnings hit.
4:44Right? Because if these tariffs go into
4:45effect,
4:46cost of production is going to go much
4:48higher, profit margins are going to come
4:49down. And at the end of the day,
4:52companies bottom line, how much money
4:54they make, how much profit they make,
4:56this
4:57is what determines the stock price.
4:59Right? Doesn't matter who your feelings
5:01are, who the CEO is, who's that is that
5:04yada yada. None of that matters.
5:06What matters is
5:09how much money they make. Right? Now, if
5:12companies bottom line gets hit, meaning
5:14their profits drop,
5:16stock's going to drop. Because all of
5:18these valuations saying Tesla is going
5:20to looking all like doing robo taxi,
5:22this, that, AI this, AI that,
5:24investments. All of this is based on the
5:28assumptions that earnings are going to
5:30scale up progressively.
5:32But companies earnings are not going to
5:35scale up, but instead drop, what is
5:37going to happen to the stock market?
5:38Right? The stock market is just pricing
5:40in that uncertainty that these tariffs
5:42are causing.
5:43And
5:45it's also predicting that because prices
5:48are going to increase, right? This is
5:49the second flavor that I was talking
5:50about. Companies' profits are going to
5:52drop, but the flip side is that
5:55people, everyday people, right?
5:57Prices are going to increase across the
5:59board.
6:00Right? Now, if you're working a 9-to-5
6:02or you know someone working a 9-to-5,
6:05their salaries are not increasing.
6:07Right? Their salary People are saying,
6:09"Oh, stock market's not the economy.
6:11We're fine with everything." and all of
6:12that, right? But in reality, right? No
6:15one's 9-to-5 pay Your paycheck's not
6:17increasing. Right? So, how are you going
6:19to combat this increase in prices?
6:21Right? Let's say a guy like I don't
6:23know, like your your this hoodie, for
6:26example, right? If normally if it cost
6:28$50, this hoodie is now worth $150,
6:31right? Because of the increased tariffs,
6:34you can say that I don't want this
6:35hoodie, but at some point you would have
6:37to buy something, right? You have to pay
6:39more than what you are actually paying
6:41currently.
6:42And this is the part that a lot of
6:45people are not like considering. They
6:47just think that the stock market's the
6:48economy. It is not.
6:50Everyday consumers are going to be
6:52affected big time, right? Prices across
6:55the board, they're going to increase.
6:57And this is where inflation They're
6:59saying that inflation's going to
7:00increase. And when inflation increases,
7:02again, Fed did a Fed did a Fed have Fed
7:04have done all of this work, right? With
7:06by keeping interest rates high, bringing
7:08everything down, inflation down. All of
7:10this goes out of the window, right?
7:11Because of these tariffs. Now, this is
7:13what we don't really want to see in the
7:16market because everything is a
7:18trickle-down effect, right? Market,
7:20Bitcoin You guys see Everyone's like
7:22Bitcoin safe. Even today, Bitcoin's
7:23selling, right? It's all risk assets. At
7:25the end of the day, one thing sells,
7:27everything sells, right? Fear When fear
7:30comes into the market, common sense goes
7:32out of the window. Okay? Now, where do
7:35we go from here, right? So, how do we
7:37handle all of this, right? Now, let's
7:39hope for all of our sakes
7:42that there are some smart people or
7:45level-headed people, I would say, right?
7:47Who are willing to, you know, come
7:49together, work out a deal. And I'm I'm
7:51sure Trump, that's what he's trying to
7:53do as well. He's trying to create this
7:56this whole
7:57I don't know what he's trying to create,
7:58but he's just trying to create this
7:59whole thing publicity-wise.
8:02And I hope that he's trying to get all
8:04of these
8:05other countries to come sit at the table
8:07to work out a deal.
8:09And it needs to happen quickly.
8:11If it does happen quickly and if market
8:14can sense that there is a sense of
8:15cooperation among all of these
8:18different countries and, you know,
8:21market could
8:23bottom out, right? But,
8:26flip side,
8:27if it's if it turns out into a boxing
8:29match, right? Be like, "Hey, more
8:31tariffs, more tariffs here, more tariffs
8:32there." The biggest problem for America
8:34is if all of these countries start
8:36grouping together.
8:37We are the biggest consumers, right? We
8:39have a lot of money. We are net We buy
8:41from everyone,
8:42right? We don't produce. We buy from
8:44everyone. So, they have to sell it to
8:46us. So, all these countries gang
8:47together, right? And
8:49right now they can't do it, but
8:51temporarily,
8:52but if they say they're they're willing
8:54to take the take the hit, financial hit,
8:56and they gang together, then
8:58that's going to create a problem in the
9:00market, right? We don't want This is why
9:03this is the this is why we need to have
9:04allies.
9:05Uh
9:06and the problem happens when your
9:08enemies all,
9:09you know, gang together and become,
9:11you know, friends. You don't want that
9:13to happen, right? You you want to have
9:15some kind of leverage over everyone, and
9:17I hope that happens.
9:19And and that's why why why why market's
9:21reacting that way. Like, it doesn't
9:23matter. Like, you could have had
9:24technical setups and this and that, but
9:26no one could have predicted, you know,
9:28the way these things were going to
9:29escalate. Certainly market didn't
9:31predict it. Um we have been selling off
9:33We've been selling off cap like pretty
9:35technically, right, so far.
9:37But these last three, four, five days,
9:39right, ever since liberation, right,
9:41liberation day,
9:42we have been selling
9:45due to fear, right? Vix is shooting up,
9:48everyone's scared, everyone's thinking
9:50that this is going to get far worse
9:52before it gets better, and that's what
9:54market's reflecting right now.
9:56Your little lying technicals, none of
9:58that matters. If you caught this move to
10:00the downside, it's purely because of
10:02news. Now, tonight, if they all For
10:05example, today, you can kind of see some
10:06countries, like Taiwan said came out and
10:08said that they're willing to do zero
10:10tariff. I think I saw a headline on
10:11India saying that they're going to
10:12willing to come to talk to the
10:13negotiation table. I think I saw
10:15Zimbabwe. Some of these countries, you
10:17know, they they don't have much of a
10:18trade impact with us, but we want the
10:20big guys, China, right? You We want
10:22Europe to, you know, all of your wines,
10:24champagnes, your designer wear, like all
10:27of the cars, right? So many stuff comes
10:29from Europe. Right? So we want all of
10:31these big players to also come to the
10:33table instead of having a pissing
10:35contest, let's all keep level head. Let
10:38Let's, you know, come to the table and
10:40talk. If that happens, we can get a
10:42resolution. I don't know if it's going
10:43to happen now. I've heard that uh
10:45uh Trump's not bothered, he's playing
10:47golf, so I don't know if it's going to
10:48happen today,
10:49but uh I hope that it happens soon,
10:52right? And uh from a technical
10:54standpoint,
10:56this is what's happening, guys. It's not
10:57complicated at all. It's It's not We are
11:00dealing with stuff that's way beyond
11:02technicals, okay? Understand what's
11:04happening right now.
11:06And the only resolution for us, if you
11:09want calmness back in the market, they
11:11need to work out a deal.
11:12If the deal It's not a matter of if. I'm
11:14sure the deal will get worked out. It's
11:16just a matter of when.
11:18Um if you've been in the market long
11:20enough, you can be like, "Oh my god,
11:21it's the end of the world." This and
11:22that, but let's be real. Like we are the
11:26ones with the money, okay? We're the
11:28ones with the money, and uh as long as
11:31uh
11:32uh
11:33we are the biggest consumers, they are
11:35going to come to our the table and
11:36willing to work a deal with us and we'll
11:38be fine.
11:39Okay?
11:40So, from a technical standpoint, let's
11:42look at some charts. All right, it's
11:43going spy looks like it's going to open
11:45at 480, right? So, it's another 5% drop
11:47so, $30 from here, right? So, 480, 475,
11:51that's where we're going to open from
11:52assuming spy opens 5% down, right?
11:55Now, that's not a good look at all. You
11:57know, before this correction started, I
12:00thought that
12:01spy is going to bottom. I think me,
12:02Brett, maybe we're all like having like
12:04an iMessage chat. We were talking like,
12:05"Hey, spy is going to bottom at around
12:07480,
12:08500, that's where we're going to get
12:09like a bounce."
12:11But, the way things are escalating, I am
12:13not so sure anymore, right? Like, none
12:16of us know anything, right? None of us
12:17know actually know anything. The thing
12:19is market is going to give
12:22the true value, right?
12:24So, right now, if you look at many
12:25names, like for example, Nvidia and all
12:27of that,
12:28like this is insane, right? You can say
12:30that, "Oh, AI is this, AI is that."
12:34None of that matters,
12:36right?
12:37None of that AI matters when
12:41everything sells, everything sells. It
12:42doesn't matter. Like, you could have the
12:43best chart ever, the best valuation
12:45ever, but when everything sells,
12:46everything sells.
12:48And the other good thing is
12:51people who missed out on stuff, you can
12:52get back in, right? The only one thing
12:55I'll tell you guys this,
12:57there there there will be a resolution
12:58to this.
12:59And when that happens,
13:01you want to get back into the market,
13:03right?
13:04I would say
13:05like, if you're do thinking about
13:07shopping for long term, a lot of people
13:09are shopping for long term at all time
13:10highs,
13:11this
13:13whatever Trump is doing,
13:15right? This is a blessing in disguise
13:17for us long term holders,
13:19all right?
13:21Um
13:22All right, let me see if you guys are
13:23saying something's wrong with the mic.
13:25All right, let me see now.
13:27So, right?
13:30No matter what what the reason is, this
13:32is the best opportunity for you
13:35to buy into your long-term accounts,
13:37okay?
13:38So, I would say
13:41next week is a good time to start
13:42dipping your toes into it, right?
13:45Especially the way I go about buying
13:47into long-term is we're already down 20
13:4925%.
13:51Okay?
13:53Every 5% down, try to add some
13:56long-terms, okay? Every 5% down, try to
13:59add some long-term, and that's what I'll
14:01be doing. I am personally waiting for
14:03Nvidia dip
14:04around 80 75. You guys can see I marked
14:07these levels. If I get somewhere around
14:09here even tomorrow, I'm going to start
14:10buying long-term dips on Nvidia, right?
14:13Now, what typically I like to do is,
14:16right? I take my scale,
14:18right? Go to the highs.
14:20I want to see at least like 50% drop
14:21from the highs. So, in this case, around
14:23here, right?
14:25So, $70.
14:26If Nvidia gets there, and let's say it
14:28goes back to the highs, right?
14:30That's a 100% return for me,
14:32right? So, this is the kind of area that
14:34I want to see. By another name that I
14:35really like is JPM.
14:37You guys already know I did like a swing
14:39on this,
14:40right? So, if I can get JPM, let me
14:44remove this fib here.
14:46Right? If I can get JPM anywhere in
14:48these areas,
14:49these are like extreme areas. I hope we
14:52can get that. I'm trying to get this
14:54maybe even a short-term swing for the
14:55small account. So, around this 190 area
14:58or around this 170 area, right?
15:02Going long on that, right? Banks are
15:04going to be there. Biggest bank, JPM,
15:06literally banks countries, right? It's
15:08not going to go anywhere.
15:10So, all a good discount area for here.
15:12So, the last time JPM tested these
15:14areas,
15:15we were 2023 December, okay? So, this is
15:19like another good chart for you to buy
15:22um long term.
15:25And um
15:26the only thing I will say though, short
15:28term,
15:30right? Things can go lower.
15:32But long term market has always
15:33recovered.
15:35Now, before bottoming,
15:38you'll usually see
15:40Actually,
15:42you know what's going to happen next
15:43week? We're going to probably sell
15:44tomorrow, right? And uh
15:48this is my prediction.
15:50We're going to get like a dead cat
15:51bounce on some positive catalyst. It
15:53could be whatever.
15:55If
15:56we sell that
15:58catalyst catalytic bonds, right?
16:00And uh we break the lows
16:04again,
16:05the first
16:07the first time we get like a green day
16:09after that, I think that will be the
16:10interim bottom, right? I'm saying this
16:12because that's usually how the market
16:14is, right? Again, news can always trump
16:18whatever, you know, common sense goes
16:20out of the window. But this area here
16:24on spy,
16:27right?
16:31is key. This 480 area here,
16:34right? Ideally,
16:36I hope that we can hold this 480 area
16:38tomorrow.
16:39But
16:42if we cannot hold this two areas here,
16:45right? Now, if I do the scale again
16:48from the highs,
16:51this is a
16:5225% drop on the S&P 500. We absolutely
16:55need to
16:57hold these areas at least for a dead cat
16:59bounce.
17:00Now,
17:01I don't know what's going to happen this
17:02week.
17:03So, let's wait and see. Hopefully, they
17:05are uh
17:07the level heads working out a deal
17:09and we can get this volatility
17:11down again.
17:13Another measure is
17:15you guys can see this, right?
17:18The VIX
17:20The VIX is currently shooting up crazy.
17:22We want the VIX to shoot back down here
17:24under this $30 level. Now, whenever VIX
17:27goes above 30, I reduce my position
17:29sizing.
17:31Okay?
17:32Um now, right now we're trading at like
17:3440, 50, right? So, the when it's like
17:3640, 50, it can go even higher.
17:38Um spy is going to basically get like 3%
17:42days, 4% days, and uh
17:45we
17:47We don't want that kind of volatility in
17:48the market, especially as a day trader.
17:50Volatility is fine, but not like insane
17:52volatility like that.
17:54So, that's uh something to keep an eye
17:55on. When VIX starts shooting back down,
17:58that's our sign that the market is
18:00getting some sensibility, you know,
18:02stability back in the line.
18:05All right.
18:05Um
18:07Game plan for the week, guys. Really,
18:09you know, I I'm going to just keep an
18:11eye on spy.
18:12Uh unfortunately, we have to plot
18:15We can't plot our levels yet because we
18:17just literally don't know what we're
18:19going to open at, right? I don't know if
18:21futures are going to keep selling. Right
18:22now, spy is down, ES is down 4% right
18:24now. You guys can see we kind of
18:26bottomed here.
18:27Um we're kind of wicking here from this
18:2980
18:31to the 48 30 level here.
18:33And it's kind of bouncing now.
18:35Um I don't know what's going to happen
18:37tomorrow.
18:38But whatever it is, right? We are just
18:41going to have to play levels.
18:43Um first 2 days, Monday and Tuesday,
18:47we are going to have to be a little
18:49patient. Wait for market to set our
18:51sense of ranges. That's what I would
18:53typically do when I mean volatility is
18:55like this, right? It's not even about
18:56making money, okay?
18:58It's not about making money, it's about
18:59keeping your money with You can't trade
19:01blindly,
19:02right? Now, if you're just buying one or
19:03two contracts, that's fine. Now, let's
19:05say I'm trying to trade I'm trying to
19:07put like a $10,000 position size,
19:08$20,000 position size.
19:11Now, any trade I take, I want to know
19:13how much I'm going to lose,
19:14right? If I'm wrong, right? What is my
19:17risk? What is my stop loss? Now, if I
19:19have no idea what the range is, what key
19:21levels are, what level's holding, what's
19:23not, I'm just basically gambling, right?
19:26So, very patience is super important.
19:28Um for the most part, I like to focus on
19:30relatively strong setups.
19:32If you guys were in the chat last few
19:34days, I caught like a Microsoft trade.
19:35Microsoft, compared to the other
19:37markets, it's holding relatively strong.
19:39This is another long-term name that I'm
19:40watching. Let me remove all these
19:42diagrams here.
19:43Right?
19:44You guys can see this.
19:46Uh for some odd reason, it's showing
19:48crazy resilient strength.
19:50This is uh
19:51Again, if it gets if if it gets anywhere
19:53close to these levels, these are like
19:54crazy buys, right? Microsoft is not
19:57going anywhere. It's a pretty deeply
19:59integrated into most PCs, most
20:01countries,
20:03right? So, it's uh it's going to be
20:04there, no matter what.
20:06So, any dips into these areas, right?
20:08These are levels from 2023.
20:10Okay?
20:11So, this is all a good buy here in these
20:14areas. I'm not saying this is going to
20:15be the bottom, but if you're buying
20:17looking to buy long-term, this is an
20:18area
20:19to
20:20start scaling in.
20:22Good rule of thumb is every 5 to 10% you
20:25can slowly start scaling in. All right?
20:27You can never perfectly time the bottom,
20:29uh but you can definitely
20:31uh
20:32slowly start scaling in, right? And
20:34another thing I'll tell you, okay, hear
20:36this one out.
20:37If you are looking to buy speculative
20:38names, right? Let's say you want Airbnb
20:41or I don't know, SoFi or Snowflake, MDB,
20:47these are names can move a lot,
20:49but
20:51these companies' valuations,
20:54right? Their forward P, the valuations
20:56is based on future earnings. It's
20:58trading at a much higher multiple.
21:00Okay? So, when market sells, when market
21:02is risk off, these names sell off the
21:04most, all right? I'll give you a good
21:06example. Let's look at MDB.
21:08Right? Look at this.
21:10Compared to how much how other names are
21:11selling, look at how these names are
21:12selling. Right? Take a look at Oh, let's
21:15look at RH.
21:16Look at this.
21:18Right? 500, now it's at 140.
21:21Right?
21:22So, Restoration Hardware furniture, you
21:24know, like they they they sell expensive
21:26furniture. Look at the selling. Look at
21:28how they've corrected like over the
21:30years, you know?
21:32So, when these names are like selling
21:33like this, when risk is off, these names
21:36will sell. Let's look at Nike.
21:39Look at another Nike actually closed
21:40green because people think that they're
21:41going to
21:42make some kind of deal. They're going to
21:44like do whatever, but I'm sure this is
21:46going to open again pretty weak. This
21:49This is again like it's one of those one
21:51of those names that could like really
21:53really take a big hit because of their
21:55dependency on other countries.
21:58Another name that doesn't have a lot of
22:00dependency on the tariffs, Netflix.
22:03Netflix longs, you guys know me, I love
22:05me some Netflix.
22:06Um
22:08if
22:09it's not a matter of if, we will see a
22:10bounce on this. Netflix is continuously
22:12growing. Um it's actually it it wanted
22:16to do the thousand breakout several
22:18times again, just couldn't because of
22:19the market conditions. Right? Key levels
22:22are pretty evident here on this.
22:25Um
22:26so, we just need to play this when
22:28market shows strength. Longing Netflix
22:31is an easier play for us.
22:33Netflix longs, Microsoft longs, Meta
22:35also
22:37uh
22:37looking looking very good at at these
22:40areas here. Let me just remove diagrams
22:42again.
22:43Look at this from the highs.
22:44So, we're getting close to
22:47these areas here.
22:48If we get anywhere under in in these
22:50areas, these are all like good
22:51discounted buys.
22:52Anything under 500. So, this is the area
22:54I want to get Meta.
22:56Like you guys can see this, 460 480.
22:59If we can get under 480, Meta, I'm going
23:01long on that.
23:03And uh
23:04these are all very good plays. Honestly,
23:06you guys can start getting leaps at this
23:07point. Okay? Leaps uh yeah, DKNG.
23:11Unfortunately, I am in the small account
23:13swing for now. I'm having this $30 stop
23:16loss. I hope market does some kind of
23:18recovery. Again, like you guys can see
23:20the selling here. This is insane, right?
23:22In the last month or so, it sold off so
23:24much. Uh this is the area that I want to
23:27uh build a position on, but with market
23:29selling and just that's just not
23:30stopping. It doesn't matter what you
23:32are. Everything is selling, right?
23:33Doesn't matter, right? Everything will
23:35sell, but this is again sports betting.
23:37Uh I mean, if everyone losing their jobs
23:39and whatnot, they're all going to be
23:41making the money in the casino. So,
23:44you know, uh it's uh
23:46this is again another name. Uh I I think
23:48this sports betting field in general,
23:50it's uh
23:51it's a very unique field. I feel like
23:53there's a lot of potential, but uh
23:55again, when everything's selling,
23:56everything will sell. Like I said, if
23:58it's a risky instrument, it's going to
24:00sell.
24:01Uh there's another name, Snowflake.
24:04Look at this.
24:05Very, very attractive here in this 100
24:06area.
24:08Um
24:09again, highs on Snowflake are uh
24:13this is another name I really like
24:14around that 100 area if you can buy.
24:16Uh
24:17company's profits are continuously
24:18increasing. So, this is another name you
24:20can buy.
24:21Um
24:23yeah, we just got to wait and see, guys.
24:25Um let's look at some questions.
24:27Do you guys have any specific chart or
24:29questions?
24:30Yeah, don't worry. I'll get a better
24:32mic. This is uh
24:34I'll try to
24:36uh this is the first trial run, right?
24:37For future uh live streams, I'll try to
24:40get more uh
24:41improve the production quality for you
24:43guys.
24:44Disney, that's a good name.
24:46Oh my god, where do I even start with
24:48this? This is uh this is again another
24:50tragic chart.
24:52Um
24:54it's uh selling off a lot.
24:56Again, a lot of dependency. Uh they are
24:58losing profit margins left and right.
25:00They've investing you guys saw the new
25:02movie numbers. What is it? Snow White or
25:03something? They were investing and etc.
25:05etc. It's a tragedy. They've investing
25:07so much, no profit margins. Like parks
25:10are not doing well. And imagine if we
25:12get into a recession, who the hell is
25:14going to go to a Disney park? Right?
25:16Who's going to buy those expensive
25:17expensive ass amusement parks and
25:19whatnot?
25:20Okay?
25:21It's uh like again, this is one of those
25:23names when the market eventually bottoms
25:25out could bounce, but from uh you know,
25:28from a growth standpoint, I don't really
25:29unless they like do something crazy and
25:32revamp their business model, I don't
25:34really know how they're going to like
25:35change something.
25:37Um
25:38what else? What else?
25:41SMCI, I don't even want to go to
25:43semiconductors, man. Semiconductors,
25:45it's all about that. It's all about this
25:47whole You know You know what they're
25:48trying to do with uh the whole thing?
25:51We are trying to monopolize all these
25:53chips. I We don't want China and all the
25:55other countries to get the best chips,
25:57right? And uh
25:59the problem is
26:00they're still getting it and they're
26:01still making it, right? So, all of these
26:04restrictions, tariffs, and whatnot,
26:06they're going to impact chips as well,
26:07right? Electronic components and
26:09whatnot. Taiwan, like everything's
26:11everything's in play, right? This is No
26:13everyone is co-dependent on If anything,
26:15computer hardware, uh like your TVs,
26:18whatever it may be, there's all a
26:20dependency there.
26:21You think your Even your iPhone, look at
26:23Let's look at Apple. Right? The big
26:25player. Look at that.
26:27It's selling. Oh my god. Apple's 188.
26:30I just remember this trading at like
26:32225, 230, 250 even, right? It's 180.
26:35Tomorrow, I'm sure it's going to be like
26:37160 at this rate.
26:38Tomorrow, it's going to be even more,
26:39170, 160. Because if you open like
26:42lower, it's going to be even lower.
26:44Now,
26:45Apple last time it was here April 2024,
26:48right? Now,
26:51how many of you will actually buy
26:52iPhones if it cost $3,000?
26:54It's just ridiculous. Like, you know,
26:56like if even if price increases by $500,
26:59that's a lot.
27:00Right? It's already trading at $1,000.
27:02Who Who's Who's buying $1,500 phones?
27:05Right? It's uh
27:07For Apple and all of these companies,
27:09there has to be a trade deal.
27:11There has to be a tariff deal, whatever
27:12it is. There is no resolution. There is
27:14no way these guys are going to give the
27:16same kind of profit margins if tariffs
27:18are still in place. Tariffs need to go
27:20away. There's no way. They have to work
27:22something out. It's hard to be
27:24optimistic right now, guys. It's hard to
27:26be optimistic without some kind of
27:29level heads coming into play. If some
27:30kind Just like a press conference with I
27:32don't know, Trump and other European
27:35leaders and whatnot, right? I can be
27:37optimistic. I don't All I'm seeing is on
27:39Twitter is people people beefing over
27:41stuff, right? I go to Twitter, I see
27:44that China is retaliating, doing this,
27:46that. Like, they're all like fighting.
27:47So, how can you be optimistic when
27:48literally everything is
27:50is is Right? When everything is
27:53you just got to say it's
27:55And and that's right that that's it
27:57right now. And look at Tesla. The amount
27:59of brand damage this stock has gone
28:01through is mind-boggling. Elon Musk is
28:04now trying to backpedal and talking
28:05about free trade deal free trade deal
28:07and everything. The brand damage done to
28:10Tesla is immense. I know people who like
28:12try to long Tesla around 300 and
28:14whatnot. It is just crazy. Right? Now,
28:17if the retaliation on Tesla Europe in
28:21Europe and rest of the world, I don't
28:23know how how Tesla is going to create
28:24the same kind of moat and whatnot for
28:27like for I don't know, for someone like
28:29Cathie Wood is saying that oh, we're
28:30going to go to 1,000 or 2,000. Based on
28:33what?
28:34Right? Like, it's it's just people. If
28:36everyone starts jumping on a brand,
28:38like, you're not going to be able to
28:39recover from that. Right? So, hopefully
28:42for Tesla long sake, Musk is able to
28:45read Like, I don't know how he's going
28:46to do it. That's not my job to figure
28:48out. That's his PR team.
28:50You know,
28:51if somehow Musk can figure out
28:54um I don't know, some kind of brand
28:56strategy or rebranding, whatever, he can
28:58do that.
29:00And then uh
29:01he got to try to get back, win back
29:03over. Uh but uh right now I cannot I
29:06mean, sure, company-wise Tesla's still
29:08far ahead uh with that thing. But have
29:10you guys seen those Chinese cars, BYD
29:12and all of that? The only reason they're
29:13not here is because we literally don't
29:15allow them to sell here.
29:16Right? If if those cars are actually not
29:18so bad. If you actually are into cars
29:20and look into that, they're not so bad
29:22compared to Teslas and whatnot.
29:24Right?
29:25If it's an open market and whatnot, it's
29:26it's not going to, you know, um
29:28matter. But I really would like Tesla. I
29:31really like, you know,
29:32uh their uh mission and, you know,
29:34especially the going to Mars and
29:36whatnot. So hopefully they can reverse
29:38their uh
29:40um I don't know, brand image.
29:42But uh
29:43it's again, when that happens, it
29:45happens. You just don't know. Remember,
29:47guys, Tesla was If you guys are paying
29:50attention to Tesla, I'm going to open
29:51the weekly chart.
29:53Uh
29:54maybe I should just go zoom out here.
29:58Right? Tesla used to be here.
30:00$20
30:02in March 2020.
30:04Okay? It used to be $20.
30:06Right? Sure, earnings have grown.
30:09And uh the last low, most recent low,
30:11January 2023, it was $100.
30:14Okay?
30:15So right now it's trading at 240. If
30:17let's say it drops another 10% tomorrow,
30:20that's uh that's a uh it's a 200.
30:22How many people are going to get margin
30:24called on Tesla? Elon Musk, uh 261 was
30:26one liquidation level. The second uh
30:28liquidation for him, apparently, it's
30:29all rumored, 200. If a Tesla loses 200,
30:32he's going to make margin called again
30:33on his loans. Right? That's what they're
30:36saying. So if we lose that 200, right?
30:38People like you and me, like there's a
30:40lot of retail investors are also You go
30:41to Twitter. There have been like
30:44several accounts that just say they're
30:45all all in Tesla,
30:47right? It's a
30:49It's just like thing it's buy and hold,
30:50right? So, how many people of those are
30:53margin margin on Tesla?
30:55All right, they're all going to get
30:56margin called. Right? It's so It's so
30:59easy. Once Once they all get margin
31:00called, the stock drops even more.
31:03More and more. The lower it goes, the
31:04more danger
31:06for uh Tesla long-term owner because all
31:08of these people are going to get
31:09stopped. So, people who bought here are
31:11going to get stopped at this level.
31:12Breaks 200 breaks, and there's 180,
31:15and then there's uh you look at this 150
31:17area here, and then Oh my god, it's just
31:19crazy, right? So, if you really believe
31:21in Tesla, buy dips for sure, but brand
31:25brand image, he has to regain it back.
31:28Trade uh you know, agreements between
31:30countries need to happen.
31:32This is also a lot of things that need
31:33to happen, right? I'm not saying it's
31:36it's end of the world or anything like
31:37that.
31:38There just needs to be deals between
31:40these different countries, and for that,
31:43our administration and uh the other uh
31:47countries need to have level heads, come
31:49together, make deals.
31:51It could be 1 week. It could be 2 weeks.
31:53It could be 1 month. It could be 2
31:54months. We don't know, right? So, when
31:56this happens,
31:58keep calm,
31:59day trade as much as you can,
32:01keep your cash flow positive, right? And
32:03every time you get a nice opportunity in
32:05value companies which you think have
32:06good future, keep buying the dip long
32:08term. You can't time the bottom. Keep
32:10buying the dip, and everything
32:12It's not a matter of uh if
32:14when eventually the deal works itself
32:17out, you will be
32:18uh nicely positioned when the market
32:20goes back up. Okay? And in the meantime,
32:23as the market keeps dropping and
32:25inflation shoots up,
32:26the Fed will be forced to act also,
32:28okay? That is also part of what what
32:31Trump is trying to do. Trump is trying
32:32to make sure that uh you know, uh Fed
32:35drops interest rates so they can do like
32:36debt refinancing and whatnot. But uh
32:39that's that's the other side. We don't
32:40need to focus on that side, I think.
32:41It's going to happen when it's going to
32:42happen, it's going to happen.
32:44Okay?
32:45All right, let's see what the time is
32:46now. All right, let's see some questions
32:48now.
32:50Um Crowd CrowdStrike, that's another
32:52name I like actually.
32:54Um wow, this is a very nice area for
32:56CrowdStrike.
32:59But like I said before, right? Um these
33:01kinds of names, right? CrowdStrike,
33:02Snowflake, and all of that. The market
33:04says they'll sell a lot more, right? So
33:07try to get in consolidation area. So the
33:09way I like to look at it is where did
33:11the last stock find support here, right?
33:13You can see these areas.
33:15Right? So these are nice areas to buy.
33:18Um on a on a stock. So if I buy it at
33:21160, high of the stock is 455, right?
33:24That's that's a very nice area. 50% drop
33:26from highs is a good area to buy stocks,
33:28right? Now, that's assuming you believe
33:30in CrowdStrike. Okay?
33:32Now if you some some country I'll give
33:34you a great example here. Want to go to
33:37a stock here.
33:38This was uh if you guys remember,
33:40Peloton. Right? Peloton during COVID was
33:42like during $200 or something it pumped.
33:45Right?
33:46Peloton will never go to 200. So people
33:48who bought Peloton here at 200, they'll
33:50never see that.
33:51Right? So don't think just because
33:53there's a dip that doesn't mean that
33:54it's a it's all good. Everything's great
33:56to buy and whatnot.
33:57It's a these are all never see. Zoom,
33:59another one.
34:00Right? You'll never see 500.
34:03Right? Zoom will never see 500.
34:05Look at this.
34:07What during COVID it was like it was
34:09insane, right? You can keep holding.
34:11People who are holding Zoom, they all
34:13gave up. From 202, last 3 years no
34:15growth whatsoever, right?
34:17So some companies, just because there's
34:20a dip doesn't mean you have to buy that
34:21dip, right? Make sure it's a company
34:23that has good income, right? Keeps
34:26growing over over year, right? Over
34:28quarter, over year, right?
34:30And or else it's pointless, Okay? So,
34:34make sure it's not a company that has
34:36limited mode. So, Zoom
34:38is it it didn't really have a mode. Like
34:40just had like the ability to cater to
34:42some people in the during COVID. That's
34:44it. Their earning shot up, but it was
34:45seasonal. After that it's done. Peloton,
34:47same thing. Okay? Make sure the company
34:50that you invest in
34:51actually has future growth trajectory.
34:54Actually has some kind of mode. So,
34:55Tesla, you can kind of say they have
34:57good AI self-driving capabilities,
34:59right? Future robotaxis, what not. So,
35:02there's a lot of use cases. You can kind
35:04of say that they're going to make
35:05they're going to they're going to make a
35:06lot of money, right? Apple, huge mode,
35:09crazy balance sheet, lots of cash,
35:11right? You know, they're going to keep
35:13making a lot of money.
35:15Um and
35:15Apple's not going to not going to go
35:17anywhere, right? So, it's going to keep
35:18they're going to keep making money.
35:20Um once this trade deal trade idea, you
35:23know, the the tariffs deals and
35:24everything's done, they're going to keep
35:25making money on that. So, Apple's going
35:27to be there.
35:28BA, another very very nice name. I like
35:31this.
35:31Uh I think it's time I actually think
35:33it's the right time to get in BA because
35:35uh they've been trying to work out a lot
35:38of things for years. New leadership's
35:39coming in. This is a very nice area
35:41again. I actually traded this like a few
35:45few weeks ago, maybe last month or
35:46something when it broke that 170 uh up
35:48to the upside, BA.
35:50So, it's again getting back to a very
35:51nice area. Any dip around this 100 area
35:54is a very nice area for BA.
35:57Again, BA has mode.
35:59Not going anywhere, right? Definitely
36:02definitely definitely longing BA if it
36:04gets around this 120 100 area. All
36:06right? It doesn't matter. It can go down
36:08temporarily. BA used to be a $400 stock,
36:11right? They still have monopoly. They're
36:12still getting a lot of orders. Look at
36:14this. Every time it pops to this 100
36:16area,
36:17you'll get like a 30 40% return at
36:18least. Look at this. It went to like
36:20last time it was here.
36:21It was 2018 big run, consolidation. This
36:24is where the big sell-off happened.
36:26Again, pop here, drop here, Right? You
36:28may not get like a crazy return, but
36:29even if you get like a 30-40% return, I
36:31am happy with that. Right? Now, if I put
36:34100 grand in here, I make 30k. If I put
36:35200 here, I can make 60k on a 30%
36:37return. Right? So, that's all that
36:39matters, right? That's how I manage my
36:41portfolio. I would find where value is,
36:43I put money there, make money, flip it,
36:46find value again, rinse and repeat.
36:49Right? Now, right now, I don't have any
36:51positioning in Nvidia at all. Right? I
36:53sold all of my Nvidia when it popped to
36:55this 135 area, 140 area when it when it
36:57got there. Right? Now, I want to rinse
37:00back in when it gets back to the 70
37:01area. Nvidia is one name I want to get
37:03in no matter what in my portfolio. So,
37:06if it gets to the 70 area, I'm going to
37:07get back here. My upside is, again,
37:09double. 70 to 140 is a double. Right?
37:11High was what? 1 150 or something,
37:13right? 155. All right? So, it's it's a
37:16nice area. This is kind of how I think.
37:18I want at least a double from where I
37:20want. Maybe I'll get a double, maybe I
37:21won't get a double, but at the very
37:22least, I can at least get 30-40%
37:25on it. XOM, yep, oil XOM, Oxy,
37:30definitely nice names to get back in.
37:33Again, when markets are
37:35in turmoil,
37:37these kind of staple names will always
37:39be in play. Right? You can always go
37:40back in. And Oxy is a very, very nice
37:43name I like. If you guys remember, I got
37:45in a swing around this area, this area
37:47or this area. I don't I forgot where it
37:48was. Again, we're getting to a very nice
37:50area. Uh Buffett has exposure in this
37:53again. Uh if you can get around 35-30, I
37:56like this again.
37:57At least for a short-term play.
38:01Um
38:02what else, guys?
38:04Best indicators?
38:06I mean,
38:07I really only use moving averages, man.
38:09I don't really use anything else.
38:11And for the most part, I trade on
38:12levels.
38:14Um
38:15you don't really need like a whole lot
38:16of indicators. You can use VWAP for day
38:18trading.
38:19And uh
38:21you can use EMAs for following your
38:23trends.
38:24You don't really need it. I pretty much
38:26use price action. I use level two and
38:27tape as well for reading sentiment on
38:29momentum, but that's about it. Yes, EMA
38:32clouds, I use the clouds.
38:35Um
38:37What else? Hood.
38:39Hood Hood Hood.
38:41Hood is selling because
38:43everything is selling.
38:45Long term Hood I It's again like
38:48retail trading and all of that it's you
38:50know
38:51any I will tell you this. Take a look at
38:53any
38:55like take a look at Citadel take a look
38:56at you know any of those like investing
38:59banks and everything. Market goes up,
39:01market goes down. As long as it's not a
39:03fund, these guys will make money.
39:05Right? So you can continue to rinse and
39:08repeat. Like Hood definitely has a like
39:10potential long term. So you guys can
39:12just look at these charts here. Anytime
39:14it approaches the
39:1650% from highs guys. If it's a good
39:18company and their income statement
39:19balance sheet's good, if you get a 50%
39:21retracement from their highs, that's a
39:23double for you. Okay, that's a good time
39:25to start scaling and this is the only
39:26thing I look at. No crazy as long as
39:28their statements are good, I will try to
39:31get in. That's it. 50% look.
39:33Yeah, right? Now I don't know if it'll
39:35double, but I can at least guarantee
39:37that after a sell-off like this it'll go
39:39up 30% 40%. All right? So UPS, FedEx and
39:43all of those names are going to be
39:44affected by tariffs again a lot of
39:46they're going to use
39:48depending on how these things play out.
39:50The volume of transactions coming
39:52through from different countries is
39:54going to produce, okay? This is the big
39:56thing. That's why these these Why do you
39:58think all of these names are selling?
39:59Right? People are anticipating a drop in
40:02demand from for foreign foreign goods.
40:04All right? So that's why these these
40:06names are anticipating that and selling
40:08a lot more preemptively. All right? Now
40:10if all of these tariff things
40:12you know they get resolved and whatnot,
40:14right? And the economy is starting to
40:16get people are getting to start make
40:18money again. UPS, FedEx and all of those
40:20names will start reversing again. All
40:22right? So, again
40:24uh these kinds of names, they're not
40:26going anywhere. They're going to still
40:27be there. These are like uh building
40:29block names.
40:30Uh people still need packages. It's not
40:32going to go away. AI is not going to go
40:34deliver to your home, right? Your Amazon
40:36package will still be delivered by
40:37someone from uh UPS or FedEx.
40:40Okay?
40:41Lyft Lyft, you uh Uber uh again, these
40:46companies will long-term
40:48get good bounces and whatnot. But right
40:51now market is risk-off.
40:53Right? So, when market is risk-off, all
40:55of these companies, they're making
40:57money, but their valuations are based on
40:59future earnings, right? So, when
41:01everything's selling, these guys will
41:03sell a lot more because they're actually
41:04not making a lot of money right now.
41:06They're all just like It's kind of like
41:08those venture capital uh things, right?
41:10They're uh
41:11on paper, they're not profitable yet to
41:13to a great degree. You I think Uber
41:15turned profitable recently. But uh but
41:18still, these are all names you can all
41:20forget to a demand area, you can buy it.
41:22Um maybe you'll get an immediate bounce,
41:24but I doubt you'll get immediate bounces
41:26on all of these names
41:27uh because uh
41:29market VIX needs to come back down.
41:31Market's appetite needs to be risk-on.
41:33When market's appetite is risk-off,
41:35everything sells.
41:36Amazon, very good chart.
41:38Very good numbers. Definitely another
41:40name you can definitely get back in. But
41:42the biggest thing is tariffs again.
41:44Um volume will go down because if prices
41:47starting to increase across the board,
41:49imagine all of those guys that are drop
41:51shipping and all of that from China. Do
41:52you guys know those guys?
41:54Plenty of like guys like that on uh
41:56Instagram and whatnot. Oh, buy this, buy
41:59that. Right? They'll They have Amazon
42:01storefronts, this and that, right?
42:03All of those guys, how are they going to
42:04get their cheap products from China with
42:07the tariffs and whatnot, right? How are
42:08they going to like sell? Like volume is
42:10going to go down. That's why these names
42:12are like selling, right? Amazon's AWS
42:14business is growing steadily, but their
42:19their business from e-commerce could go
42:21down because of the tariffs.
42:23Uh let's all pray, guys. We just have to
42:25pray and hope that these guys resolve
42:26these tariffs things quickly.
42:28And uh
42:31um
42:32if if they do then market can bounce.
42:34Otherwise, you know,
42:35uh what's what can be a problem is
42:38market will start ranging.
42:40Again, we're going to most likely start
42:42ranging until these we've sold off a
42:44lot.
42:45Eventually, market is going to start
42:47ranging and then based on the news,
42:49it'll either break to the upside or
42:50downside, right? But this following week
42:53expect some crazy price action. We could
42:56even even get some optimism and have a
42:58like a limit up there, right? And then
43:01the very next day sell this sell off
43:02sell that off, right? So, a lot of
43:04things can happen. Um
43:07LLY, I don't really know much about LLY,
43:10but again, it's just a bearish off
43:12environment.
43:14Uh it's health technology, it looks
43:15like. Again, it sold off It actually
43:17doesn't sell hasn't sold off a lot, so I
43:19would be cautious. Just look into their
43:21balance sheet and whatnot. Maybe I don't
43:22know the reason why they're selling.
43:24Look into them. I don't really have too
43:26much exposure in health care, right?
43:29Because it's not a sector I really like.
43:31No, it's a too much news reliant and
43:33whatnot.
43:34Um
43:36uh Walmart
43:38Look at this right? Okay, I
43:40actually have a box drawn. That means
43:41this is an area I wanted to get Walmart
43:43in, right? So, Walmart if it comes here
43:46this area sell probably buy. Another
43:48one, Costco.
43:49Right? Look at this.
43:51This is again like a lot of impact on
43:53tariffs and whatnot, but like if it can
43:55get here these areas 800 is not a bad
43:57area. 800.
43:58This area here 700. I don't know how
44:01much it'll drop tomorrow. We'll have to
44:02wait and see.
44:04NVO, is Is the Olympic company?
44:08Holy Wow.
44:11Looks like I have a level here.
44:13I don't know how much it's going to
44:14drop.
44:15But looks like I have a level here on
44:17this chart.
44:18And I wanted to buy.
44:21Yeah, the the reason I don't invest in
44:23these companies is because they pump on
44:25news. Tomorrow they'll come and say
44:27this drug is banned or something and it
44:29just goes to zero.
44:31So I just don't like that. The their
44:33entire pump and dump is based on some
44:35approval on some clinical trial or
44:37something like that.
44:39I just
44:40can't put my money
44:42in something so unpredictable. I mean,
44:43if you make money, it's crazy, but if
44:45you don't
44:46it's like where's the bottom?
44:48It will go to zero.
44:49Right? You think it can't go to zero? It
44:51can go to zero. Right? Uh that's the
44:53thing about these kind of companies.
44:55Um airlines for sure.
44:58Airlines going to be I mean, travel
45:00they've already given an outlook that
45:02travel is going to decline if we get
45:04into a recession.
45:05Well, it's obvious. People are going to
45:07struggling to make money. Right? People
45:09are struggling to buy their everyday
45:11goods. They're not going to be spending
45:12much on like vacations and like
45:14that. Right? So, think about it like
45:16with all these hotels, resorts.
45:19Right? And uh
45:21the flying airlines and whatnot, it's
45:22going to come down.
45:23Uh business expense is also going to
45:25come down meaning commercial flying is
45:27also going to come down. Like business
45:28flying, your office people who are
45:30flying through their work, it's all
45:31going to come down.
45:32Right? Meta, Netflix, and all of that is
45:35good long term. Meta may lose some
45:37advertising
45:38spending, but if people
45:40are uh stay staying at home and uh you
45:42know, looking at stuff, it's it's the
45:44only place that they can spend their
45:45time in.
45:46Meta, Netflix long term good.
45:49But at least for a bounce.
45:50AMD
45:52very very tempting, man. It's a good
45:54chart.
45:55I don't really know why they're getting
45:57beaten down so much. You know, in the
45:58chart we always make a joke about why
46:00AMD or it's always a sell stock, right?
46:03But it's getting to a point where it's
46:04like it's too hard to ignore. Right? If
46:07you ask me for a value proposition, AMD
46:09definitely much more value compared to
46:11Nvidia. If it's getting anywhere near
46:13the 60 area, I'm going in AMD, right?
46:16Even if it gets back to the 120, which
46:18was the most recent January 2020, hey,
46:21that's a double, right? So, AMD
46:24if it can get where anywhere here,
46:26right? Even 70, I will get back in.
46:28Right? Even in the small account
46:29challenge, I'm going to get in.
46:30We can get maybe tomorrow, let's hope
46:32that maybe tomorrow or day after we can
46:33get the 70 or 60 area, right? AMD's a
46:36double if it can get from here
46:39to 130 again, that's a double, right?
46:41That's exactly what we want, right? Like
46:43if you can get like a 100% return on
46:45like
46:46quickest 100% it'll be, right? If it
46:48gets back here, buy buy the dip, AMD.
46:50AMD, I know they have a good balance
46:52sheet, they have earnings are good,
46:54great CEO, I love Lisa. Now so it's a
46:57This is a This is like a no-brainer for
46:59me, all right? From I don't know how
47:01long term, 10 years from now, don't ask
47:02me, but
47:03from a bounce standpoint, this is the
47:05perfect area to buy. At least we'll get
47:06like a 50% or 100% double here and here.
47:09All right?
47:11Gold, man,
47:14gold is ripping. Everyone now, you know,
47:17Peter Schiff and all of those economists
47:18are like gold is the where the money is
47:20at, but uh
47:22uh it's I would say you can you can use
47:25gold and all of that as a store of
47:26value, right? People are People don't
47:28know where to put their money and they
47:30don't know if they should buy bonds,
47:31they should buy stocks,
47:33or they should keep it in their bank or
47:34they should stay cash.
47:36People who are long gold, it's not the
47:37right time to buy gold right now. And
47:39maybe it could go higher, but I don't
47:40see a lot of upside, especially if these
47:42tariffs and all of this is matched and
47:44markets matched or risk on, money's
47:45going to flow back into stocks, right?
47:48Um
47:49it's uh
47:50it's it's hard to argue this uptrend
47:53because over the year you guys can see
47:55this
47:56steady steady meaning, but right now
47:58it's like if you're trading that all now
48:00I'm going to long gold. I don't know how
48:01much more upside we have. Maybe we do.
48:03Right? For if we do have a lot of more
48:06upside on gold, that means the stock
48:07market's literally just going to take a
48:09massive crash. Maybe $100, $200 crash
48:11more. Right? If gold is to go to like
48:134,000 or whatnot. I don't know if that's
48:15going to happen. All right. So, we just
48:17got to wait and see.
48:20Um any other questions, guys? Any other
48:22like trading-related questions? Not just
48:24chart requests.
48:27We just uh we still have 10 more
48:28minutes. So, we'll do some questions
48:30regarding that and then uh
48:33for the next class I'll actually like
48:35come up with like an agenda. Maybe we'll
48:37go over some day trades techniques and
48:38whatnot. I think that'll be more
48:40helpful.
48:43What's your trading agent? How do you
48:45and who do you learn it from? I mean,
48:46well, I'm just doing it for 11 years,
48:48man. I didn't like really per se learn
48:49it from anyone. In fact, I just learned
48:51it from myself. Right? My own history,
48:54my strengths, weaknesses, that's where
48:56I've like learned a lot from.
48:58Um
48:58When it comes to day trading, I will say
49:00this, guys.
49:02If you
49:03like again, I'm not like calling anyone
49:05out or anything like that. Right? And
49:07when it comes to day trading, it's like
49:08a it's like a sport. Okay? Let's say
49:11you're playing baseball, basketball, or
49:13something like that.
49:15The more you practice, the more you play
49:18every day, whether you have whether
49:20you're on your A game or like, you know,
49:22you're not in your best or whatever. You
49:24have to keep coming, train every day,
49:28put on a performance every day.
49:32If you
49:33are someone that says that, "Hey,
49:36market's not great. I'm just going to
49:37sit on the sidelines.
49:40I'm just going to watch. Market doesn't
49:42meet my standards.
49:44I'm only going to take 2 days a month."
49:46You're really not a day trader.
49:49No matter of conditions, you guys see us
49:51on live. Right? Upside, downside. Now,
49:53even if the conditions aren't great,
49:54it's at what $2, if it's a $5 range,
49:56we'll still try to make some cash flow,
49:58right? The thing is
50:01you may not make great money every day,
50:02but it's very important to show up every
50:04day because you don't want to get loose
50:07touch with the market. Okay, this is the
50:09most important thing that I see a lot of
50:10traders miss.
50:12I've been I don't remember that The only
50:13day I took off this last Friday and I
50:15had a surgery, that's why I took time
50:16off. I had to take my wisdom teeth out,
50:18that's why I didn't trade.
50:20You show up every day,
50:22right? Whether you like it or not,
50:24whether you make money or you taste
50:26Aeros cough, it doesn't matter, right?
50:28Not every day will be a day where you
50:30make crazy money,
50:31but
50:32it's important to show up.
50:34The more you show up, the more you
50:36learn, the more in touch you'll be with
50:38the market and more opportunities
50:41um you will you will be able to see,
50:43right? Now, I know many many levels out
50:45of the top of my mind
50:47like just like that because I'm in touch
50:49with the market. Now, if I take a week
50:50off, I wouldn't know what's happening.
50:52Okay? So, to improve as a day trader,
50:55number one, show up every day, right?
50:57Whether you win, lose, or draw, it
50:59doesn't matter, show up every day, like
51:01put some time in the charts, uh try to
51:04execute, and uh
51:06also call it a day quickly, okay? A lot
51:08of people, what they do is they think
51:11you just need to trade the whole day.
51:13You're going to just fry your brain
51:14cells.
51:16You cannot going to know what's
51:17happening.
51:18You are going to sometimes overtrade,
51:21make mistakes.
51:22It's bad in the long run.
51:24The more You need to be more systematic
51:26as a trader,
51:28and uh
51:30the more systematic you are, you're
51:32going to be able to eliminate emotions,
51:34okay? Very important.
51:37Last 7 years, how many days you missed?
51:39Man, that's a very good question. Like
51:41every year, maybe I'd say I'd miss like
51:435 days, man, that's it.
51:45Maybe I'm like a little obsessed, but
51:47like not every day I'll make crazy money
51:49also. I'll tell you this, right? Some
51:51days it's just going to be like me
51:52watching and trying to play trade out an
51:55idea and it just doesn't work. The only
51:57trades that I really like to get is when
51:59like they're like a strong trend, strong
52:01momentum, crazy moves, right? When I
52:03know this is going to work. Those are
52:05the kinds of days that I I go really on
52:08the offense, right? And uh those are the
52:10days you'll actually like like you won't
52:13see me talk. I'll just like be on the
52:14zone.
52:15But those kinds of days don't happen
52:17every day in the market, right? Maybe
52:18it'll happen like four or five times
52:20four or four times a month, five times a
52:22month, right? The rest of the days is
52:24just casual business Friday, business
52:25day. Just make some kind of few trades
52:27here and there. Call it. The biggest
52:30gains happen on those five days.
52:32Uh five days a month, four days a month,
52:33it doesn't matter what it is. And then
52:35the rest of the days is just cash flow.
52:37Um and it's super important when you
52:38know you're like the market's not great
52:40or what not, you need to keep it tight.
52:42So there will be some red days also. So
52:44when the red days happen, they'll be
52:45smaller red days, right? It's super
52:48important. Now,
52:49you can't go in tomorrow. I know like if
52:51you go to the chat for example, like
52:53you're going to be like, "Oh, market's
52:54doing this, that." Like
52:55all you'll see people do is talk each
52:58other up, hype hype things up so you go
52:59in with crazy expectations. "Oh, I'm
53:01just going to buy zero DTE calls, zero
53:03DTE puts. I'm going to keep averaging
53:04down."
53:06One psycho moment
53:09is all it takes for you to blow your
53:10account.
53:12"I'm just going to keep averaging down
53:13zero DTE puts. It's going to go down."
53:16Or it's going to just going to keep
53:17buying calls. It's just going to go up.
53:20The one time you're wrong, your
53:21account's gone.
53:23So no, don't do that.
53:24Be very, very careful during these
53:26times.
53:27It's so easy to just uh go into a frenzy
53:30and think that, "Oh, I'm going to do
53:31this. I'm going to do that." And just
53:34completely lose the plot. Don't do that.
53:36When VIX is high, when market's
53:37uncertain, when news is dictating price
53:40action, be very cautious. It's not about
53:42winning, making money. Everyone's losing
53:43money right now because their long comes
53:45down, everything's down.
53:47So, this time you got to be cautious,
53:48focus on cash flow, be proper, be very
53:51disciplined, and you'll be fine.
53:55Um
53:57Are you going to leave this live? Yes, I
53:59will post this live on my YouTube so I
54:01can watch it again.
54:02Um
54:03Yes, I will do more You- YouTube
54:05streams.
54:13All right.
54:15Do you look at option contract Greeks? I
54:17mean, typically I don't have to, you
54:19know, um at the money options, I just
54:21know what the Greeks are going to be
54:22like.
54:24And especially if I'm day trading, I
54:25don't I'm not going to complicate it.
54:28Um how do you pick your contracts? I
54:30mean, right now
54:32because of VIX, contracts are all crazy
54:34pricing crazy.
54:36Um so, you can go a little out of the
54:38money. I would say, maybe 10 dollars. If
54:40you're trading, it depends on the kind
54:41of names you're trading. If you're
54:42trading like something like a Meta
54:44tomorrow, for example, Meta's probably
54:46range is going to be like 50 to 100
54:47dollars on the weekly.
54:48Right? So, you can go like 50 dollars
54:50out of the money and still be fine.
54:52And uh for the most part, I don't trade
54:54any such names. The only names I trade
54:56are like Spy,
54:58uh Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, you know,
55:01Tesla.
55:03Uh Apple. So, these are the same names I
55:05trade over and over.
55:06And uh
55:09um Yeah. I'm doing the small account
55:13challenge right now. Came on.
55:15Uh it's a currently double, but
55:18we'll see. It's kind of difficult to
55:20swing trade. Like, what the hell I
55:22You buy the dip, it keeps dipping. So,
55:24you know, how are you going to make
55:25money? It's all news driven, right?
55:27So, if you get get lucky on a couple of
55:29plays, you can easily complete a
55:30challenge quickly on the this market,
55:32but if you're trying to be sensible and
55:34whatnot, it's going to you not take some
55:36time.
55:42Uh when you first started trading, what
55:43was the small size trade or I mean
55:45really depends on contact because when I
55:46first started trading I was trading
55:48stocks. I was trading equity. I was not
55:50trading options.
55:51Um when I didn't know anything, I would
55:53just go all in.
55:55But eventually I started learning about
55:57sizing and the stocks that I was trading
55:59were like penny stocks and whatnot.
56:02Right, so
56:03it's so funny you ask me that question
56:05because there were times where I put
56:07$1,000 into a trade and next day I wake
56:09up to a double and there have been times
56:11where I wake up to just $300. Right? So
56:14that it just really depends and that's
56:16why options are beauty. You know,
56:18options really actually fixed a lot of
56:20discipline in my trading because I was
56:22able to sleep well. I don't know how
56:24many of you guys can sleep well when
56:26you're having like big swings. Put a me
56:29if you if you are because I couldn't
56:31sleep well. If I had like big position
56:32swings, I just can't sleep. It's just
56:34like it's just like ruined a lot of my
56:36night and because like I'm worried too
56:37much about the overnight position and
56:38then next day and I'm like all like
56:41biased and like it's just like
56:42difficult, right?
56:44So options when I switched over to
56:46options day trading, I really don't care
56:49anymore about like like those kinds of
56:50things. Long term is long term and then
56:53like when I find value like this, I'll
56:55go like buy some mid term swings. But
56:58other than that, it's just keeping being
57:00able to sleep is the big thing.
57:02Right? And honestly, my trading I've
57:04been like 11 years now, right? I don't
57:06really care much. I've made my money
57:09already. So right now it's all about
57:11risk off for me. Right? When there's
57:13opportunity, I'll go on the offensive
57:14try to make some money. I don't really
57:16have anything to prove to anything or to
57:18to me to to myself or to anyone. I've
57:21made my money. That's I think that that
57:23should be everyone's goal. Once you've
57:24made your money, don't go trying to make
57:26crazy risk. Right? I've done it all.
57:28Tried to make $30,000 every day
57:30consistently, $40,000 this and that.
57:33It's just too much, man. You just can't
57:36keep consistently making that. You you
57:38will like eventually like go through
57:39blips and like you know, it's going to
57:40like going to create like
57:42ton of ups in your mind,
57:44right?
57:46Trade what you're seeing. And then once
57:48you made your money, be risk off, right?
57:51That's that's the goal for all of you.
57:52And I will say if you're starting out
57:54right now, your first goal should be to
57:56get to 100k, right? 100k is where
57:58everything changes. If you can have a
57:59100k account, right?
58:02You can easily make 40-50k a month just
58:05like that. Easy. No crazy risk, nothing.
58:0840-50k a month pretty easy you can make.
58:11And then that's like half a million.
58:12Have a couple of good years like that.
58:14That's how I started. Have a couple of
58:15good years like that.
58:17And then eventually you can scale up. If
58:19you can make 10k a month, that's it.
58:20Like you're pretty much just set for
58:22life, right? If you can make 10k a day,
58:24then if you can get your 10k days and 5k
58:26days easy,
58:27that's it.
58:28You can easily make six figures a month
58:30and then after that, you don't really
58:32have to worry about anyone. You don't
58:33have to listen to anyone. Just
58:35you mind your own business and you know,
58:38just go on about your life. That should
58:40be the goal. I see a lot of people like
58:42you know, trying to do crazy things and
58:43I'm like, dude, I don't want to do crazy
58:45things anymore.
58:46I don't want to do crazy thing. I want
58:48to just have some sensibility in my
58:50trading, right?
58:51Sensibility, stability. I This is what I
58:54want. I don't want this. I don't want
58:55that. Like you know, I've done it all.
58:57Trust me. Like
58:59I don't post everything what I do. Like
59:01I don't care anymore to post about
59:02everything I do, right? You don't really
59:04need like crazy anymore. Just
59:07get to that stability, have peace of
59:09mind and you're good. All right? It just
59:11doesn't matter anymore. And like I've
59:14been doing I've been like on the online
59:16space of trading what since 2017. It's
59:19like 8 years now. And I've been trading
59:20for 11 years. So it it's just you know,
59:23it it you you make your money and that
59:25should be the goal for everyone.
59:27All right?
59:29How do you use the Fibonacci channel? I
59:31mean,
59:32just plotting, man. There's nothing You
59:34just need to find highs and lows and
59:36then like plot it.
59:37I recently did it for JPM. I can just
59:39share it with you.
59:41Look at this.
59:42All right?
59:43So, basically, fib channels are nothing
59:45but you find a trend. In this case, if
59:47this is the trend, you can see this this
59:48channel here, second channel here. And
59:50then we kind of had a swing high and
59:52then now it's selling here. All right?
59:53So, we broke this low. If you guys
59:55remember, who remembers this JPM swing?
59:57But they kind of screwed up the March
59:58contract, but even the March went green.
1:00:00The May did like 300% 400% or something
1:00:03like that. All right? This is the big
1:00:05move that I got. Where did it reject?
1:00:06Look at this where it rejected. 4 252
1:00:08253. And then they sold here, sold here.
1:00:12Coming to a point here 208. Honestly, I
1:00:14wanted to buy here. If it can get here,
1:00:16I'll go long again.
1:00:18And this these two areas are where I
1:00:19want to get get the longs. Okay?
1:00:22Um this is going to work in like
1:00:24channels, okay? So, this is
1:00:26You just have to play it. And another
1:00:28thing, don't try to do this in smaller
1:00:29time frames. You can do it like in a
1:00:31much larger time frame and it'll work
1:00:33much better. But again, all of this is
1:00:35just there's a drop. Everything is news.
1:00:38Okay? It's not technical.
1:00:40All right? It's just not technical. It's
1:00:42just, you know,
1:00:43it's pure news. So,
1:00:45keep an eye on news for more more stuff.
1:00:50Have you created custom indicators in
1:00:52Pine Script? No, man. No custom
1:00:54indicators, none of that stuff.
1:00:58Do you have a daily cash flow goals? I
1:01:00mean, it really depends on the setup,
1:01:02man. Some days I wake up feeling super
1:01:03motivated. Some days I just don't see
1:01:05So, market gaps on 5%.
1:01:08Tomorrow, my mindset is going to be,
1:01:10"Gee, let me just see what what what it
1:01:12does." And then like try to find setups.
1:01:13So, Thursday I traded, I was pretty
1:01:15confident Microsoft is going to be my
1:01:16play. So, I took that trade twice. First
1:01:18trade was 50%. Second trade doubled, did
1:01:20100%. I knew what it was. I made my goal
1:01:22I am actually made more money that day
1:01:25than
1:01:26the entire week. Right? So
1:01:29So that's kind of you need to think
1:01:30about it like if you know if you're
1:01:31expecting something and it's playing out
1:01:32exactly and you know be able to define
1:01:35your risk then I'll do it. But if I
1:01:36tomorrow for example I'm going to the
1:01:38session I don't even know what I'm going
1:01:39to trade.
1:01:40I really don't know what I'm going to
1:01:41trade like what the market's going to
1:01:43open is there going to be some news I go
1:01:44into the session with a bearish mindset
1:01:46and then the market gaps up what I'm
1:01:47going to do. Right? So I just don't
1:01:48know. Right? So tomorrow problem on
1:01:50tomorrow's problem problem I just have
1:01:52to wait and see what happens there.
1:01:55Um
1:01:58What else? What else? What else?
1:02:06Yes, market structure I only chart. Yes.
1:02:10Right now everything's like a free fall
1:02:12right now so the only kind of setups
1:02:13that make sense especially if you gap
1:02:15down is trying to play the reversal to
1:02:16the upside.
1:02:18Uh or you wait for the stock to hit
1:02:20supply and then time it. It's all about
1:02:21timing whether you're trying to long
1:02:23stuff. If you're trying to buy the dip
1:02:25on something focus on relatively
1:02:26stronger names like we spoke about a few
1:02:29names like Netflix, Microsoft and
1:02:31whatnot.
1:02:32Uh if you're trying to wait to short
1:02:33something again focus on the relatively
1:02:36weaker names and then try to time the
1:02:39uh try try to time the uh you know the
1:02:42short.
1:02:43It's all about timing.
1:02:45Keep your stops very tight volatility is
1:02:47high size smaller these are all very
1:02:49important.
1:02:50Um
1:02:53What else?
1:03:00Last questions let's see. When do when
1:03:02do things click? I will tell you this
1:03:04okay people ask me this all the time
1:03:06okay confidence right?
1:03:07How do you become a confident trader? I
1:03:10will tell you this here this well you
1:03:12confidence is not a switch you can turn
1:03:14on and off. Okay? I can just say, "Guys,
1:03:17be confident. You'll be fine."
1:03:19It's It's not going to work out like
1:03:20that, right? The only way you can be
1:03:22confident is if there's like a system to
1:03:24your trading, right?
1:03:26You make money intentionally.
1:03:28You lose money intentionally. Meaning,
1:03:31when you're making money,
1:03:33everything in the trade needs to be like
1:03:35you wanted it to make, right? So, if you
1:03:37This is my entry, this is my stop,
1:03:38everything. So, if you followed a proper
1:03:40plan and made money intentionally,
1:03:41that's a good trade.
1:03:43If you followed a plan and lost money
1:03:45intentionally, that's a good trade.
1:03:46If you didn't know how you made money,
1:03:48if you lost money and you didn't know
1:03:49how you lost money, that's a bad trade,
1:03:51right? The only way you can gain
1:03:52confidence as a trader if you have a
1:03:54proper system where you intentionally
1:03:56make money and lose money, all right?
1:03:58And uh
1:03:59second part is you have to actually make
1:04:01money.
1:04:02There's no point in trading if all you
1:04:04do is just spout ideas. There's plenty
1:04:06of people like that. They just get so
1:04:08much serotonin and boost on being right
1:04:09versus actually making money, right? You
1:04:12I can have like an idea, but if I don't
1:04:13execute and make money, it's pointless.
1:04:15All right? I need to be able to make
1:04:18money uh consistently over a period of
1:04:20time.
1:04:21And uh
1:04:23intentionally, that's when my confidence
1:04:24goes up. And you keep building up risk,
1:04:27right? 1 day, 2 days, 10 days, 20 days,
1:04:29you have a lot of green days, you build
1:04:31up risk tolerance. More risk you have,
1:04:33the more you can afford to take more
1:04:34risk. And you can increase your size,
1:04:37you can take on bigger positions,
1:04:38riskier trades.
1:04:39And uh those are the things that you can
1:04:41do. Okay?
1:04:43Uh these are the main things, guys.
1:04:44Confidence is something you have to
1:04:47commit some time to your craft. And when
1:04:48you do that, you'll
1:04:49You'll You'll do well.
1:04:52Yeah, you buy the dip, dip keeps
1:04:54dipping.
1:04:57Um anyway, guys, I think it's uh it's
1:04:59time. It's 9:00. I hope you guys enjoyed
1:05:01today's live. If you enjoy this live,
1:05:03post about it, tag me in on Instagram,
1:05:06I'll reshare it. I'll do more. Subscribe
1:05:08if you guys
1:05:10uh you know, like this this kind of
1:05:11content,
1:05:12I'll definitely post this again and
1:05:14we'll do again another Maybe we'll do
1:05:16one midweek, okay? I think I want to do
1:05:18it midweek more because then we'll kind
1:05:20of know what we're trying to do, right?
1:05:21Maybe I'll do it on a Tuesday or
1:05:23Wednesday. Right, Sunday's fine, but I
1:05:25think midweek I'll try to do it. All
1:05:27right? Hope you guys had fun, great
1:05:29great night. Tomorrow, let's kill it.
1:05:32Right? See you guys.

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