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STEAL This SIMPLE Trading Strategy from The WORLD's #2 Futures Trader - Marci Silfrain — Transcript

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0:00We did a phenomenal episode already over
0:02300,000 views and the comments [music]
0:04have been demanding that we see a chart
0:06fanatics episode with this phenomenal
0:08guest.
0:08>> This is the basis of every chart. To me,
0:11when I see charts, this is all I see
0:13over and over. And if you if you focus
0:15on [music] this that concept of follow
0:17the trend, it it becomes easier and you
0:19can actually kind of see it. Now, what
0:21usually happens is
0:23>> after achieving a high of 320%
0:26in the futures world trading
0:28championships, the world's second best
0:30futures trader reveals her exact
0:33strategy.
0:33>> It is going to blow your mind that this
0:35is so simple and looks so stupid, yet it
0:38can almost nail the bottom. Like,
0:40exactly. [music] And I use the Ballinger
0:42bands to help me kind of realize how
0:45close we are to reality.
0:46>> What time frame would you say this is
0:47based on? So you can do this on any time
0:49frame, [music] but I will say I like it
0:51better on the
0:53>> Marcy Silrain goes step by step through
0:56her exact process that allows her to
0:59identify market tops and market bottoms.
1:02>> This is how I [music] judge if a trend
1:04is intact. If it keeps forming these
1:06little rzies and it keeps going [music]
1:08down and it keeps hitting these points
1:10downwards. This happens over and over
1:13and over and I believe it is the basis
1:16for all of the charts. What happens is
1:19>> not only does Marci share her exact
1:21strategy that allowed her to achieve
1:23worldclass results, she also gives two
1:26major predictions on this very episode
1:29using her strategy. This is an episode
1:32you [music] cannot afford to miss.
1:34>> I think this is what's going to take
1:36over as the next Birkshshire [music]
1:38Hathway in our generation. And if you
1:41invested in Birkshshire Hathway in the
1:43beginning, you would have made like 5
1:44million%. [music]
1:45Now, what I see when I look at this is
1:48um
1:51welcome everyone back to Chart Fanatics,
1:53the go-to channel for all of the very
1:55best strategy and concept breakdowns in
1:57the world with some of the greatest
1:59traders in the world as well. Talking of
2:02which, we did a phenomenal episode, only
2:05came out a couple weeks ago, actually,
2:07already over 300,000 views, and the
2:09comments have been demanding that we see
2:11a Chart fanatics episode with this
2:13phenomenal guest. Placed second last
2:16year, in the World Championships of
2:19Futures Trading, [music]
2:20you already know who it is, the one and
2:22only Marcy Silver.
2:24>> Hello. I'm glad to be here.
2:26>> It's an absolute pleasure. I know we've
2:27kind of dragged you back in the studio.
2:29So, in short notice, I guess.
2:31>> Listen, I have I have tried to fight off
2:33everyone because everyone wants me to
2:34teach trading. And you actually
2:36initially asked me to come on Chart
2:38Finex and I turned you down and I was
2:40like, I can't do that. And then my
2:42messages online all day are like, teach
2:44trading, teach trading. I'm like, I
2:46can't. And on words of wisdom, what did
2:48I say? Like, I'm not a good teacher.
2:50Here we are eating your words teaching.
2:53So, I'm just saying like you guys have
2:55been fair warned, you know. Mhm.
2:56>> You get what you get here.
2:58>> But what you said though before we
2:59started is today we're going to go
3:01through the concept you used to predict
3:03the market bottoms.
3:04>> Yes.
3:05>> And uh you've done that already, you
3:07know, through examples that might be on
3:08screen right now or shown before in the
3:10trailer.
3:11>> Uh of two occasions in particular where
3:13you did that too. One on the day and one
3:15like a day before.
3:16>> Yes.
3:16>> And we have chart examples later of
3:18predictions that you have for Bitcoin
3:20and another chart. Yes. Uh in
3:21particular, but we're going to start
3:22here on the whiteboard. Where do you
3:24think's best to begin here? Um, well,
3:26first I want to say I have sort of a
3:29philosophy on charts and markets and
3:31that I think that
3:34all these different tools we use to buy
3:36and sell and enter trades, um, I think
3:39they're all telling us the same thing.
3:41Whether you're doing order flow for your
3:43in entries or you're doing Fibonacci
3:45retracements or you're doing trend lines
3:48like I watched the video you have with
3:50Fabio and then I watched the one with
3:52Tori trades and the way I look at it is
3:55they're doing the same thing even though
3:57they're very different and uh one is a
4:00little bit more complicated you could
4:02say in my mind and the way I approach
4:04charts we're all doing the same thing
4:07>> which is we're trying to figure out the
4:11ratio of buyers and sellers at any given
4:13time. We just all do it a little bit
4:15differently. So, this is very much sort
4:18of a um dumb it down easy, simple way to
4:24ask yourself like which way is the trend
4:27going? When could it possibly bottom?
4:30And I find it's very useful to find the
4:33bottoms during market crashes. And this
4:35is what I use to predict bottoms and
4:38market crashes. And like I said, I was
4:39able to use it in 2025. I had called it
4:43to the day on X. And um in 2022, I had
4:47posted on Instagram. I had predicted it
4:49like two weeks prior. Um and I was I I
4:52predicted it in QQQ. I was using QQQ to
4:55chart back then. And um I was off by a
4:58dollar in a day in QQQ. And it's very
5:01simple. It's something I feel like
5:03elementary school students could do. And
5:07I think it's a reminder that sometimes
5:09we over complicate things in life and in
5:12trading.
5:13>> Especially in trading. No doubt. Well,
5:15that's the key word that we love to hear
5:16here. Simple. Yeah. I'm sure the
5:18audience feels the exact same way. And
5:20uh it's going to be super interesting,
5:21especially given the markets this month.
5:23We're recording this at the end of
5:24January, the last day of January.
5:26>> Um so hopefully we'll see what the
5:28coming months have in store for us. And
5:31I'm excited cuz I think especially with
5:32the uh the chart section we do later, by
5:35the time this comes out, we might have
5:36actually seen, you know, where this is
5:38uh where those charts have gone to as
5:39well.
5:40>> Yeah. Um and I will say uh when I when I
5:43draw it, um I'm going to be drawing it
5:47sort of like in a downtrend, but you
5:49have to also remember the same the
5:52inverse pattern works
5:53>> is actually Yeah. And I mean I can try I
5:56we can we can try to do do some uptrend
5:58ones. I think it's just the easier
5:59concept to get
6:00>> um in a downtrend. And remember
6:03>> when you ask yourself, you know, why is
6:06this pattern so simple and so powerful?
6:08What it really is is it's in in my view
6:11is it's it's based on Fibonacci and all
6:14the retracements. And it's just kind of
6:17seeing all the retracements at once
6:19without actually
6:21drawing them.
6:23>> Okay, that's so that's where I would
6:25think in my head where it came from.
6:27So, um,
6:29it is
6:31these are my candles.
6:34I'm Did I just Is my lotion going to
6:36mess that up?
6:36>> No. No.
6:38>> Okay, we're going to get some red
6:40candles. Oh, we're going down. We're
6:43going down big.
6:47Get a dogee.
6:52Okay,
6:54let's do one more big one.
6:58Oh, they're getting killed here. I hope
7:01you were short. I hope you went short.
7:04Okay, now we all see this
7:08over and over.
7:18And then look what happens.
7:22Have you ever seen a candle like that?
7:23It's like Silver had one of these.
7:25>> Yeah, exactly. I was about to say
7:26>> this might be Silver.
7:27>> There'll be some traumatized people.
7:29>> We're making it dramatic so I don't have
7:31to draw 20 on the way down. Okay.
7:34>> So,
7:35what happens here? Let me let me add a
7:38few over here, too. Just so we have this
7:41like
7:43ch.
7:50>> How are my candle skills?
7:51>> No, they're great. Most people just draw
7:53lines. So, I'm sure the audience will
7:54appreciate the effort. [laughter]
7:57>> Okay.
7:58When let's pretend this candle is not
8:02here. Okay. And all we have is the price
8:04data up until this point. Okay.
8:07>> What you want to do is you want to come
8:09in and draw a trend line right right
8:11here down.
8:14And what you will find
8:18there's a name for this. Okay. I have
8:21self-taught myself all of trading. So a
8:23lot of these like specific names and
8:25everything I I don't even know what they
8:27are. So truly I don't know what you
8:28would call us. But you know I was
8:30thinking to myself there's a trader
8:32whose name we shall not say.
8:34>> Isn't he known for renaming pattern?
8:37>> Oh yeah. Yeah.
8:37>> And think so we're going to rename this.
8:39And I was thinking we're going to name
8:40it after your kids.
8:42>> So we're going to call this pattern a
8:43little RZY. Okay. [laughter]
8:45>> So from now on this is known as a little
8:47RZY. So, whatever they're going to leave
8:49me comments and say, "Hey, it's called
8:50this. I don't care. It's called Little
8:52Rizzy." So,
8:53>> I'll back you up. You'll back me up.
8:55Right. So, what this is right here is a
8:58little RZY. Okay. And the way that I
9:01look at this, and you will see this over
9:02and over in the charts,
9:05if you find the low on the candle that
9:10had the lowest low in this um pattern
9:14and you measure from right here to the
9:18top of the trend line to to so you want
9:20to go directly up this same candle,
9:23right?
9:23>> Okay.
9:24>> To right here. And you measure the price
9:27distance. Mhm.
9:28>> Let's say this is $20. What you will
9:30find is
9:32the next move down will be this
9:36distance. So like this would even
9:37continue further down. And this happens
9:40over and over and over. And I believe it
9:43is the basis for all of the charts. And
9:46what happens is
9:49>> when you're trying to identify a trend,
9:51you're going to see these keep forming.
9:54So,
9:55I would view this as a new little rizy
9:58that formed. Okay. Draw a trend line
10:01from here to here.
10:04Technically, I would have wanted this
10:05one to come a little bit lower. Let's
10:07just say it came down here. Okay.
10:09>> Yeah.
10:10>> And what you're going to do is this is
10:13this is how I judge if a trend is
10:17intact. if it keeps forming these little
10:19rizies and it keeps going down and it
10:21keeps hitting these points
10:23>> downwards. Um, and what you will find is
10:27I like to add like binger bands to it
10:29too. So, for people that don't um
10:34that aren't like familiar with Ballinger
10:36bands, I'm I'm going to like let's just
10:40uh
10:43Okay, we're going to pretend these are
10:44our Ballinger bands. for people that
10:47aren't familiar with Ballinger bands
10:48because I know um kind of the new
10:50traders these days don't use them. I
10:52again we're going to like dumb it down
10:53here. I like to call it reality. Okay,
10:56so the middle line is like reality to
10:58me. If it's trading near the middle
11:00line, the price is like in reality. If
11:02it's
11:03>> up here, it's out of re it's getting out
11:06of reality. If it trades above here,
11:09>> you're out of reality. So if you're out
11:11of reality, what happens? You have to
11:13come back down into it. So same thing
11:14here. If the price is trading near the
11:16bottom line, you're getting close to out
11:18of reality when you come down here. Like
11:19you're just out. You're gone. You're out
11:21of reality. At some point, mean
11:22reversion or coming back to reality has
11:25to take place. So when I use these
11:29little rzies, I like when
11:32the first one happens towards the top of
11:36the Ballinger of of the um Ballinger
11:39band like up up here or above
11:43reality when it's going down.
11:45>> Yeah. So for the flip side, it would
11:47just be at the bottom side,
11:48>> right? So it will keep forming these and
11:52and you will find it. And when I show
11:53when I pull up the charts and I show I
11:55want to go through 1929, we're going to
11:57go through 2000, we're going to go
11:58through 2008, we're going to go through
12:002022, we're going to go through 2020,
12:02we're going to go through um 2025. It is
12:05going to blow your mind that this is so
12:07simple and looks so stupid, yet it can
12:10almost nail the bottom. Like exactly. It
12:13freaks It freaks me out still like how
12:16accurate it is. How accurate it is and
12:20easy to understand. But I mean, if
12:21you're looking at this, you can kind of
12:22tell this this is kind of like a
12:25>> you can kind of see are you're familiar
12:27with retracements like like you can kind
12:29of see it's really a Fibonacci
12:31retracement. So that's where the power
12:33in it
12:34>> is coming from. But they they will just
12:36um continue on. And what I, as I was
12:39saying before, I really like when
12:41they're towards, if it's going
12:43downwards, I really like when it's
12:45towards the top of the Ballinger band
12:47>> or the middle.
12:49>> And and as the trend is fading,
12:52eventually it's going to start forming
12:53one towards the bottom that's not going
12:55to finish.
12:56>> But what usually happens is
12:58>> so as you were mentioning, you mark out
12:59the bottom of the that particular
13:01>> the lowest whatever candle has the
13:04lowest line
13:04>> and it's above there where you're trying
13:06to measure. Yeah, you draw the trend
13:08line and you take the exact point in the
13:10trend line on that candle to here.
13:14>> And so in this example, we said $20,
13:16let's say, right?
13:17>> So then what you would be expecting is a
13:18$20 move below this area,
13:20>> below the low
13:21>> based on that.
13:22>> Yes.
13:22>> Perfect. And for this example, I know it
13:24was already drawn on, but in this case,
13:26taking that same principle, would it be
13:28from this low to this high then?
13:30>> No. Well, we're saying we're going to
13:32pretend this one came down lower.
13:34>> Oh, just one more candle. Yeah. Mhm.
13:35We're s we're gonna pretend this is
13:37another little rzy that just formed.
13:39>> Oh, I got you. So you get the lowest
13:40point.
13:41>> The low Yeah, the lowest point. Got
13:43>> Now sometimes the lowest point is the
13:45first candle.
13:46>> Yeah. Yeah.
13:47>> Sometimes it's the last.
13:48>> So this one might have gapped down and
13:49then
13:49>> Right. So you you we have to look at it
13:52and we'll go over some charts, but you
13:54would you would measure it and then you
13:55would measure this distance and that's
13:57how much it would go
13:58>> extension
13:59>> down. And so that's and and when it gets
14:01in these patterns and keeps falling,
14:03that's how I like to gauge. Okay. Which
14:05way is the trend going? Now, on the flip
14:07side, if you start getting closes above
14:11this trend line,
14:12>> Yeah.
14:12>> Little RZY broke.
14:14>> Yeah.
14:14>> Not your friend anymore. Well, they're
14:16always our friend, but you know what I
14:17mean. It it broke. So, it it's not
14:20>> it's not always going to work, but that
14:22would be your cue for, hey, this this is
14:25not working. And I again I do tend to
14:27notice
14:28>> the first one or two that form on like a
14:33downtrend work the best.
14:35>> The fourth one, the fifth one, the
14:36market's getting tired now and it's
14:38ready for a bounce.
14:39>> So once we start to get more out of
14:41reality towards those edges,
14:43>> those ranges are going to get smaller
14:45and start to fade away,
14:46>> right? And I use the Ballinger bands to
14:49>> help me kind of realize how close and we
14:52are to reality, how far out of reality
14:54are we are.
14:55>> What time frame would you say this is
14:57based on?
14:57>> So you can do this on any time frame,
14:59but I will say um I like it better on
15:04the longer time frames. uh this is how I
15:08do think with with trading it's really
15:10important to
15:13establish a overall trend for the market
15:16like you know like the daily S&P is in
15:19an uptrend so this is something that I
15:22would use for that but there are times
15:24where I see these little rzies on like a
15:26five-minute chart a 10-minute chart a
15:2830-inut chart and I'll take it and my my
15:31cue is when when we start dropping right
15:34there's we never go straight down.
15:36>> Mhm.
15:36>> There's always a bounce, right? We start
15:38dropping, I sit, I wait for the bounce,
15:40>> and when the bounce comes, I see if it's
15:42forming a trend line down, right? And if
15:46it does, then I'm like, hm, we might be
15:48forming a little risy. And so I might go
15:50short
15:51>> here. Yeah. And what I would be playing
15:53is, you know, this $20 below here. And
15:58that would be my exit point for a profit
16:00or my um stop would be maybe somewhere
16:04up here
16:06>> where that trend line was broken if we
16:08go to close.
16:09>> Gotcha.
16:09>> Up here. I
16:11>> to establish the trend line. Do you wait
16:12for price to start to come down first
16:14and then you mark it out?
16:16>> So um to establish the trend line, I
16:20wait for the initial drop. Mhm.
16:22>> And the bounce. And from there, I just
16:24start trying to draw a trend line. And
16:27um it's not always going to be right.
16:29You could come early, right? You could
16:30have came here. That see the thing is
16:35you want to ask yourself this. This is
16:37what I would say. And when the chart is
16:40has its initial drop, it's it's up here
16:43out of reality in the Ballinger band and
16:45it has its initial drop and you're
16:47waiting for the bounce. Trading
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18:42>> In actuality, hopefully you'll have a
18:45few candles up here that you could kind
18:47of get an idea where a trend line might
18:49be. And then when it starts to bounce,
18:52if if you had this idea that you had
18:54these candles here and this was your
18:56trend line,
18:58you would say, "Hey, this one hasn't
18:59reached it yet."
19:00>> Yeah.
19:01>> Yes. No, not yesterday. On Thursday on
19:04X, I actually applied this on a five
19:06minute chart and um I tweeted it on
19:09purpose so we could talk about it here
19:11too if we have time. Um and it was the
19:14same thing. It was a little rzy and I I
19:16told everyone, you know, the market it's
19:17watch out, it's going to turn here. And
19:19then it did start to turn and then I I
19:22set a price that I thought it was gonna
19:24run to and it was it was all based on
19:26this and it ended up doing it and it hit
19:28the price. And it's just it's so simple
19:31but you really have to and we'll do it
19:33when we pull out the charts. You really
19:34have to like look at the charts and you
19:36have to kind of train yourself to see
19:38them over and over and realize they're
19:40constantly repeating. And I think we've
19:43all just learned um so many complicated
19:46ways to trading. Some sometimes
19:49sometimes you got to kind of like step
19:51back and I think um that's kind of what
19:54this is. So it might it might be hard
19:57for some people but I think for like new
19:59traders they would love this and again
20:02it in for identifying entry points and
20:05crashes it is like so accurate it's
20:07crazy. That's the beauty because
20:09obviously you can use it from a trading
20:10perspective, but then equally from just
20:12a long-term investing perspective, it
20:14can help two ways. Whether you're
20:16looking to get good buys, right, or just
20:19being able to
20:20>> hold your long-term portfolio without
20:22too much stress, knowing that, okay, on
20:24average, this is the sort of area and
20:26benchmark we should be looking at for
20:28the pullback to start to slow down or
20:29stop and turn around.
20:31>> Yeah.
20:31>> In terms of your Ballinger bands, do you
20:33have any particular settings that you
20:34use for that? Um I just use the two
20:37standard deviation. Gotcha.
20:39>> Yeah. Uh I think most of them default to
20:42that. I think so. Yeah.
20:43>> Yeah. I don't I don't extend them
20:46>> but they are really helpful in in kind
20:49of determining
20:51if the prices in reality are not.
20:53>> Yeah. No, it makes sense. Like you know
20:54how people use the RSI for example.
20:56Yeah.
20:57>> Overbought oversold. Obviously the
20:59aboler bands are similar in nature
21:02>> but are working off actual the price
21:05itself rather than say a sentiment gauge
21:08is working off as you say the the range.
21:10So the two standard deviations as you
21:12said is just expanding that range out.
21:15So once you go beyond that uh upper
21:17limit lower limit then like you say it's
21:19out of reality at that point. So like
21:21silver for example and gold would have
21:23been way out of reality when they
21:26started to turn. But then you know
21:27that's you know a lot of people I think
21:29were not arguing but loads of people
21:30were trying to time the short because
21:33they knew it was getting out of reality
21:35and other people were trying to kind of
21:38put them down of like yeah it's going
21:39it's bullish. Why are you fighting the
21:41trend uh and taking these losses? cuz
21:43some of them were taking losses on the
21:44way up and they were getting a bit
21:45frustrated.
21:47>> But then a lot of people had like
21:48careerhigh trades. Yeah.
21:50>> Because they stuck it out and realize
21:52look, we are our reality regardless. So
21:55this short is going to happen. And when
21:57it does,
21:58>> you know, once you're seeing like mass
22:00greed um or mass fear, but mass greed in
22:03that case, that short when it does
22:05happen is going to be very aggressive.
22:06And oh yeah, look what happened. You
22:08know, it was crazy aggressive. And uh
22:11you know, it's probably not going to be
22:12the end. I'm sure there'll be a lot more
22:13volatility uh when it comes to those
22:15pairs. But it's a great example because
22:17I'm sure no doubt a lot of them probably
22:19were using whether it's the exact same
22:21tools but there as you said the same
22:24sentiment you know of what we're trying
22:26to derive anyway regardless of your
22:28strategy is it's all the same principles
22:31we're trying to extract where are as you
22:33said the ratio of buyers or sellers you
22:34know and I can see perfectly you know
22:37clearly of why this would work and how
22:39you're deriving that information from
22:41what you've covered. so far.
22:49>> Okay, we're going to show one like on
22:53the way up.
22:57>> Don't my my sound effects.
23:09>> This is a
23:11mixed candle
23:14bar. You know what I mean? Okay.
23:33Let's just say that um
23:38blah blah blah
23:41Guys, don't judge me on my bars, okay?
23:45All right. This would be one. This would
23:47be a little rzy I would consider on
23:49going on a uptrend. So, it went um it
23:53went down. I brutalized these. Okay,
23:56whatever.
23:57What I would do here is measure the
23:59distance from here
24:02to here.
24:04And this would tell me, hey, this thing
24:06went down, then we got a little bounce.
24:08It pulled back a little bit and the
24:11height it's going to go on the next move
24:13is from
24:15the high to the point the um on the
24:18trend line
24:20>> and that's where you're going to find
24:21the next move goes to.
24:22>> Exactly. So it would take it from here
24:25down.
24:25>> Yes.
24:26>> And then essentially that would be the
24:28same to here.
24:30>> Yes. Yes.
24:30>> Which then when you're looking at it, is
24:32it a case where you're saying, "Okay,
24:33from here this price movement makes
24:36sense to reach the upper sort of
24:38Ballinger band in this case
24:40>> and that okay, this is this makes sense
24:42for me to be able to hold." Is it a case
24:44let's say if that was larger and you
24:46know it's showing you that it'll
24:48probably get up here
24:49>> when it comes to say managing your trade
24:51especially I imagine in a long
24:53perspective or maybe a short one might
24:55make more sense but um would you then
24:57say okay once we're starting to reach
24:59the upper band that's where I'll start
25:01to scale out or
25:02>> no no
25:03>> if the little rzy right
25:06>> had had the distance let's say the the
25:08high was here and let's say the trend
25:09line was here right and let's say it it
25:12brought us
25:13>> the next move, I would play the whole
25:14move even if it brought me out of
25:16reality because they're that powerful
25:18that they usually tend to finish. And
25:20again, they're really just based on
25:21Fibonacci retracements. And I mean, you
25:24could you can look at these moves from
25:26like a order flow perspective. If
25:28someone pulled that up, they they'd
25:30probably say that there would be like
25:31short orders, a bunch of people, you
25:33know, and they uh coming in here trying
25:36to go short and and they would want to
25:38come in and play this move or people
25:39coming in here and order flow trying to
25:41buy upward. So, it it's all the same
25:44thing. I think it's this is just a
25:46different way of looking at it that can
25:48be really easy for new traders. A lot of
25:50times the um
25:53some of the other versions there's just
25:55it it can just be overwhelming. I I
25:58really understand how to read charts
25:59very well. People send me their charts
26:01all the time and sometimes I'm just
26:03like,
26:04>> "What's on this?
26:06>> What are we doing? Buying when the green
26:08leprechaun crosses the blue frog?" Like,
26:10I don't I don't get it. Like what is
26:12this? Like like let's draw stars on it.
26:15Sometimes it's just too much.
26:17>> No, definitely. So like here we have
26:18like three key principles really. The
26:20price action, a trend line, and the
26:22Ballinger band. And uh just off those
26:25three key principles, you're identifying
26:26the trend, you're identifying an entry
26:28point, and you're identifying a target.
26:31>> Yeah. So also, let's show this. Um if
26:34you get a
26:37Let me think of how to draw this.
26:38>> Mhm.
26:41These are hard for me to draw. Okay,
26:45let's say you got a candle
26:54that came
26:57saying candle draw. I don't I don't
26:58know. I haven't seen a bar in forever.
27:01So, don't mind my bars. But let let's
27:04say you um get a move that came like all
27:06the way down here. Th this is not a
27:09little rzy to me. Okay. It has to um
27:13form on like a uptrend trend line. The
27:16second it comes like down all the way
27:19down. If it stopped right here.
27:21>> Yeah.
27:21>> Okay.
27:22>> I could say if if I look at the chart
27:24there there would be a chance. Let's say
27:26it stopped stopped right here and maybe
27:28I could draw the trend line right here.
27:30It would it could still continue on that
27:32high. But the second it comes like down
27:34below here
27:36>> it it's it's all bad. So so then from
27:39here obviously you would class it as
27:40sort of a break of that trend
27:42potentially
27:43>> right
27:43>> and then the next uh for that pattern to
27:45form again you would need I guess some
27:47green candles and then do the same
27:49accordingly
27:50>> right so and then if something came like
27:52like this
28:02This would be
28:08a downward one to me even though we're
28:10near the bottom. So let's let's say this
28:13one was just to make it simple. Let's
28:14say this was the low.
28:16>> It would be right here to here.
28:17>> Yeah.
28:18>> And take it down.
28:19>> So then it would be from there to there
28:21and then we'll be looking at the same
28:23move to the downside.
28:25>> Yeah. And then in terms of how do you
28:28then use this to try and identify the
28:30bottom in that case because then as uh
28:32as you said if you were going to get to
28:34the out of reality you'd still look to
28:36hold to that point
28:38>> right. Um so what I would say is like if
28:44I was playing this little RZY right
28:46here. Okay. Um,
28:48my exit for a sell would be
28:53this move if we if we said like it was I
28:55don't know to here that would be my exit
28:57for a cell. The distance from the trend
28:59line to the highest high candle
29:03>> and then take what if that's $20 add it
29:06to the highest high and that would that
29:08would be my exit for uh profit. Now, my
29:12exit here for a loss would be if this
29:16trend line breaks, I might do it like
29:18below the low here or I might just do it
29:22like my my only hesitation with uh doing
29:26it like real close like right here is a
29:29lot of times it will come test it and
29:31then just bounce. So, I very much kind
29:33of like to wait for like an actual
29:35close. Okay. Like so if the next candle
29:37like closed below this trend line, I
29:40would I would get out and say, "Okay,
29:42this is probably breaking here."
29:43>> Okay.
29:44>> If it's just, you know, drastically
29:46pulling a silver move like the other
29:48day, [laughter] you know, get out and
29:50and kind of also apply like always apply
29:53a max loss to all of your trades, you
29:56know, um whatever however many ticks or
29:59percentage or tenth of a percentage
30:01points you want to risk. like you should
30:03always have like a max regardless in
30:06there too.
30:07>> Um,
30:08>> but it just this is the basis of every
30:11chart to me when I see charts. This is
30:14all I see over and over. And if you if
30:17you focus on this that concept of follow
30:20the trend,
30:21>> yeah,
30:22>> it it becomes easier and you can
30:23actually kind of see it. Now, what
30:25usually happens is it doesn't just go up
30:28down. usually we'll kind of trade
30:30sideways and and um so like let's say
30:35the chart is going up when it reaches
30:38kind of like a top out point it usually
30:40kind of trades sideways but what you
30:42will see in that when it's trading
30:43sideways is it's not forming any more
30:45little rzies it's just kind of going
30:47sideways so that's kind of your thought
30:50process of oh this uptrend it might be
30:52over now
30:54>> the next little rzy that forms might be
30:57down I hope you don't mind that we named
30:58this after.
30:59>> That's okay. I'll take it. Yeah, that's
31:00fine. [laughter]
31:02Continue my legacy somehow.
31:03>> Okay. Yeah.
31:04>> Um, it's okay. So, from here, what
31:07should we do? Should we go to the chart
31:08examples from here?
31:09>> Yeah, let's go to the chart.
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33:07at Apex [music] today. Let's get back to
33:09the episode.
33:10>> Okay.
33:10>> Mhm.
33:11>> This is the S&P. This is a monthly chart
33:17on um this is the 1929 crash.
33:20>> Okay, got you. Mhm.
33:21>> And what you see right here to me, this
33:24is a little risy, right?
33:27This is 1929. So, I'm going to draw a
33:29trend line
33:33like this.
33:36And if you measure from here, so let's
33:39say that's like 30. I'm going to pull
33:42out my calculator. Oh,
33:43>> they have it here.
33:44>> Oh, okay. See, I don't know trading
33:45view.
33:45>> This is why trading view is [laughter]
33:46better.
33:47>> This is why we need you.
33:49>> But we [snorts] can measure from here to
33:50here.
33:51>> Disclosure. I'm just learning trading
33:53view.
33:54>> This will be like a 1300 thing.
33:57>> Okay.
33:58>> Then we measure another one from where
34:00would it be?
34:00>> So then take So then take this distance
34:03to here.
34:04>> Yeah. Okay.
34:05>> Do you get what I'm saying?
34:06>> 100%. Yeah. It's uh it's this tool
34:11instead. We'll use
34:13>> teamwork makes the dream work.
34:15>> That's it.
34:19>> So, it wasn't
34:20>> so take this candle where the low is and
34:23then like the trend line.
34:25>> Yeah, my
34:25>> above it.
34:27>> My bad. I was getting ahead of myself.
34:29Let's use this here.
34:32>> Oh, do I not have that? I do.
34:37to
34:39there. And so we have
34:51So then we need to do the same down
34:55which would be 1169
35:00which is right there. There we go.
35:04>> Okay. So this is 1929, a monthly chart
35:09S&P right here. I would consider this a
35:14little rzzy. You form a trend line down.
35:17You measure the distance from the lowest
35:18low, which is right here, up to the
35:21trend line, which we brought down here,
35:22and you take that distance and you
35:24subtract it from the lowest low. And
35:26look what it gave you. It gave you the
35:28bottom of the crash. So, what I would do
35:32is you could come in and just buy here,
35:37right?
35:38>> Um, what I usually find is if you do it,
35:41you're usually a little early because
35:43when there's a big crash, it takes time
35:45to bottom. So, one thing you could do is
35:47that or you could wait until these are
35:49again our Ballinger bands. Um, another
35:52strategy I like to do is you wait until
35:54you get a candle that closes above
35:56reality and you could do an entry here,
35:59like on this candle.
36:00>> Yeah.
36:01>> Um, so I find either one of those are
36:03good entry points, but I mean this is
36:061929 and it gave you the exact bottom
36:10pretty. I mean, not exact, but pretty
36:12close. Yeah, very close.
36:13>> That's why I say it's really good for
36:14finding entries. Now, these are also
36:19other examples along the way of other
36:23ones forming.
36:24>> Mhm.
36:25>> Um like right here,
36:27>> right here, right here, right here,
36:31right here. So,
36:35when I say that they
36:40um start giving you they they make it
36:42easy for you to see the trend is
36:44continuing. Now, I want to be clear. I'm
36:46not going to, even though in this craft
36:48you probably could just take this trend
36:50line all the way down. This this is not
36:51how I look at it. I look at it very much
36:54as an individual pattern with the
36:57individual trend line. So this would be
36:59one on this particular little rzzy. The
37:03low was on the first candle. I would
37:05measure here to here and you will find
37:08it brings you down here. Now I have
37:10another one. I would draw a trend line
37:13from like here to here. And my next move
37:16down is going to be the same thing.
37:19Measure the distance from here to the
37:22low
37:24and it's going to bring you down. And
37:25and it continues. I [snorts] would even
37:28consider
37:30I would consider this one.
37:33I could consider this one. In this
37:35instance, we had a lot. And let's say
37:39you tried to do it here
37:42and it failed and for me the trend is
37:45broke broken there. Now a lot of people
37:47would just do uh one trend line all the
37:50way down which you can do but this gives
37:53you like the exact
37:56moves down in a way to measure it when
37:59you kind of break them up.
38:00>> But in terms of the only question I can
38:01think the audience having is in regards
38:03to and it's slightly different because
38:04we're on a monthly chart. So maybe we
38:06can sort of uh clear this as we go to
38:09more recent charts.
38:10>> Okay.
38:10>> But in regards to the trend line, so as
38:12of right now, you know, it's much e the
38:14the thing that they'll probably be
38:15thinking is uh it's easier to do this on
38:18charts that I've already sort of
38:20presented all the candles to be able to
38:22do it right. So in this case, uh this
38:24one here, let's say drawing the trend
38:26line is uh more simple because we can
38:29see where the next higher low is or or
38:32the next candle that then sends us
38:34lower. But then in real time, how would
38:36we be able to
38:38>> So I would say I would say like this
38:40next trend line, right? I wouldn't have
38:43drawn it in until like you have this
38:46candle. Okay.
38:47>> And and and you're right. I may not have
38:49seen it at that point. I may have not
38:51realized it until three candles down and
38:54maybe I missed that one. Okay.
38:56>> So there it is something you have to
38:59learn a and practice in real time. And
39:02when we go over the
39:05um current Bitcoin chart and my favorite
39:07chart that I think is like a really good
39:09buying opportunity for the future, those
39:11are not completed, right? Those are real
39:13time charts. So, I'll kind of show you
39:15when I don't have the data like what I
39:17look for and how I come up with those
39:20conclusions. So,
39:22>> let's go to um
39:25>> the dot crash.
39:28>> Let me go. Let's look at a week. Oops.
39:32Let's do a weekly.
39:43I kind of had these drawn.
39:46Okay, this is
39:502000. Um, the NASDAQ. Uh, this is a
39:53weekly chart.
39:56This to me
39:59is one big in my mind. This is one big
40:04little rzzy. I would draw the trend line
40:06like this
40:07>> and the distance or or I would measure
40:11the distance from here to the trend
40:13line. Take that and it will bring you
40:16you know it'll be around down here. And
40:18you can see in the um
40:21in the.com crash, this would have been
40:23an early buy, but it's still if you're
40:26trying to do a a long if you're looking
40:29if it's a market crash and you're
40:30looking for a long-term entry point,
40:32it's a good it's a good um
40:36basis for where you should enter. And
40:39the other thing too is like you really
40:41want to focus if you're if you're trying
40:43to gauge if there is a crash, you really
40:45want to gauge the fundamentals and ask
40:47yourself, you know, is GDP declining? Is
40:49unemployment rising? You want to look at
40:51those types of things also.
40:55>> But no, you're right. So, so especially
40:57on this sort of bigger picture uh way of
40:59trading, the fundamental side of things
41:01are going to be really helpful and and
41:03necessary to a degree. No doubt. And
41:05these and these are um again I'm just
41:09going to draw these just so you get in
41:11the habit of seeing it because it repeat
41:14in my brain they repeat over and over. I
41:16would consider this one
41:18>> Mhm. Is this why you were saying on on
41:21the words of wisdom episode like you
41:22cannot match or replace the time on the
41:26chart.
41:26>> Yeah. Because the more you do this the
41:28more you'll the more that you'll start
41:30to see them. like you could consider
41:33this one and you could say okay this is
41:36still telling me it it could fall um it
41:39did kind of bounce above but this is how
41:41I gauge the direction of the price
41:44movement
41:45>> um
41:45>> are there other elements when it comes
41:47to so say for example here we're on the
41:50weekly time frame we've identified um
41:52you know the trend line we've identified
41:54where we're positioned our direction but
41:56then when it comes to sort of trying to
41:58enter and manage the trade let's take
41:59this as an example here. Would you then
42:01be basing it, this is weekly, would you
42:04go like daily, look at what's going on
42:06there to help then back up your thesis
42:09and find that entry point?
42:10>> Yeah. And you'll see more and more of
42:12these repeating in in every time frame,
42:14in every chart. So, you you can
42:16definitely zoom in, but um I let's I do
42:22find that again. So like up here, this
42:25is towards the top of the bullinger
42:28band. Even
42:29>> they they still continued down the like
42:32this one right here is towards the lower
42:35band down here. But um
42:38>> it did kind of consolidate go sideways
42:41and then it made another move down. If
42:43you go to 08, let's see past it. Okay.
42:49Wait, how do we do this? Would you say
42:52that when it comes to the the news side
42:55of things, especially if we're at highs,
42:58do you sometimes have to kind of think
43:01counter to what the news is saying, for
43:03example? So, um what example can I give?
43:07Like the dollar, I guess this last uh
43:09week, two weeks, everyone's talking
43:11about how the dollar's died and it's
43:13just dying off and dying off, dying off.
43:16Does that and it has died off but does
43:18that then when it comes to fundamentals
43:20and looking from this perspective
43:22because it's at like record lows already
43:24is it almost to a degree sometimes you
43:26got to think the opposite okay we've
43:28probably priced in this negativity at
43:30this point
43:32>> this could be where we start to turn
43:33>> I have a great tool I like to use for
43:35that
43:36>> and I say when mainstream media is
43:38reporting it like when it is headline
43:40news on CNN it's priced in
43:43>> whatever it is it's priced in now if
43:45it's on CNBC or like Bloomberg or Market
43:48Watch. It might not be priced in yet,
43:51but like
43:52>> if we wake up Monday and it is headline
43:55news about a silver crash on CNN,
43:59MSNBC, like Fox News, like the regular
44:03news stations, not like the business,
44:05>> the finance ones. Yeah.
44:06>> When it hits those like headline news,
44:08it's over.
44:09>> Mhm.
44:10>> That like that's literally what I look
44:11for. I look for that or I look for my
44:14friends calling me who don't normally
44:15trade who tell me about it. So if I get
44:17calls Monday about silver from people
44:19who don't trade, I'll be like, hm, it's
44:22probably over. But I mean, those are the
44:24things that that I look for. And we do
44:26have to remember the market is always
44:28pricing everything in advance.
44:29>> Yeah,
44:30>> it's way ahead. As much as we like to
44:32think that we can get in before it, we
44:34can't.
44:35>> But um when it hits the mainstream news,
44:39that's always my cue. Yeah,
44:41>> like silver.
44:43>> I've had a lot of people I remember I
44:44know a lot of people who have been
44:46trying to ask me about silver uh more
44:49recently, you know, people who don't
44:50trade.
44:51>> So that that was always my indication
44:52that we were going to see something as
44:54well.
44:55>> This is NDX. So the NASDAQ, this is the
44:572008 crash. And if you measure the
45:00distance from here to here.
45:03>> Yeah.
45:07So we measure from here to here. So that
45:10gives us 41.
45:20And so that could be an entry point for
45:23a long position.
45:25>> Um again, it's not exact. This is an
45:28example down here where um
45:32>> it started trading sideways. Yeah. And
45:35it and it and you can tell the trend
45:37started changing. Um,
45:39so if you were coming in in '08 and
45:42you're trying to identify the bottom,
45:44you got an inheritance, you came up on
45:47some money, and you want to enter the
45:48market, right? This this would give you
45:51a good position to enter you. And you
45:54could do it here or you could wait until
45:56you get a candle breaking um the middle
45:59ballinger band. Um, and you can see it
46:02went on from here. And again, now we're
46:05in an uptrend. to me. I'm I'm just going
46:08to go through and draw them so you can
46:09see how in my brain I look at these and
46:15I try to pick
46:17the direction of the trend.
46:22So this to me this would be one the high
46:25would actually probably be on this
46:26candle and I would measure that
46:28distance. It did go on above that right?
46:31>> So from here to here I would consider
46:34this one. And if you measure the high to
46:36here, you can see it continued up.
46:41>> And then from there, we continue. Let me
46:43sort this for you.
46:45That one.
46:54>> This would be a little rzy to me. This
46:57would be one. This one I probably might
47:00not have because this low came down
47:03pretty far. adjust,
47:05>> but it it just keeps it I I break it
47:08down into this repeating pattern over
47:10and over and over. And when I get a
47:12moment when it starts to trade sideways
47:14like this,
47:16>> I kind of go, hm, maybe it's breaking.
47:18Um, let's go into
47:22let's do 2018.
47:24In 2018, we had
47:31there was a big drop in 2018
47:35and it's kind of one
47:37little RZY that kind of gave you the um
47:42Is this how you're doing it?
47:43>> Yeah.
47:44>> Okay. I'm learning Trading View, guys.
47:48>> You usually use Think and Swim. You say
47:49>> I Yeah, I use Think or Swim. So, I feel
47:51like I'm um Oops. I feel like I'm kind
47:54of riding with my left hand and I'm
47:57right-handed, but we get the point.
48:00>> And it is like a perfect
48:04just under. Yeah.
48:05>> Yeah. It's close.
48:08Same thing. Um going up.
48:11They continue to form.
48:14Now, let's go into
48:172020. Um the COVID crash.
48:29Where are we?
48:31Tiny tiny tail.
48:42To me,
48:45this is this is your if if if
48:49you are um an investor in the market and
48:52and you see one of these patterns
48:53starting to form and you know there's
48:55some fundamental going on like you know
48:57co we all knew it was spreading
48:59>> and you see this huge drop followed by a
49:03bounce you're seeing maybe you could
49:05draw the trend line and it's starting to
49:07fail that that's kind of your time that
49:10maybe you are wanting to realize It's
49:12It's probably going to continue down.
49:14And you can see this continued to drop
49:17down. Um I would consider this
49:21another one from here to here. I would
49:24consider this one from here to here. I
49:26would consider this one.
49:29I would consider this one. And again, it
49:32stops. And now you get them in reverse.
49:36Now you're getting them from here to
49:38here.
49:39>> Mhm. So, it's going to move the distance
49:41from here to this trend line and that's
49:43going to be your next move up. And and
49:45again, that's how I'm gauging the trend.
49:48Um, if we go into let's go to do April,
49:51April 2025.
50:00If you make this one large one and you
50:03measure the distance,
50:06it came pretty close to giving you the
50:10bottom down here too. Maybe you're going
50:12to enter right around here and then
50:16you got a huge one form right here.
50:20So when you get down there, one, you're
50:23taking you profits from any shorts. But
50:26then when you get to that level
50:28based on
50:30>> you see the overall correction,
50:33probably some fundamentals as well as
50:35well as them being out of reality on
50:37that lower Ballinger band. Do you start
50:40looking at buying and trying to time
50:42like the absolute bomb or you want to
50:44wait for confirmation for you?
50:46So
50:48if you look at like in in this instance
50:52um this little rzy brought us down to
50:55right about here. Um
50:58we also had a fib retracement here for
51:02the like the AI bull market that started
51:05in 2022.
51:07um somewhere around here where this
51:10little rzy bottomed was also a 50%
51:13Fibonacci retracement from from the
51:16whole AI bull run.
51:18>> So when that happened, I was like, "Oh,
51:21it's over. It's going to reverse." And
51:23that's why I had posted an X. I was
51:24like, "The bottom's in." That was it.
51:26Because it was just too much support. It
51:28was too powerful. We dropped too fast,
51:30too hard, and it just seemed like it was
51:33over. Mh.
51:34>> Um,
51:36you could come in and say, "Hey,
51:39this could have been one, right?"
51:42>> Mhm.
51:43>> And and and
51:46this would be a time where if you
51:48consider this one, it it did not work.
51:50It was invalidated. So, what what you
51:52would want to watch for is it starting
51:54is it starting to form one in the
51:57inverse direction to do an uptrend
51:59higher. And again, I'm gonna show you
52:02two charts in real time that are forming
52:03them and which direction I think they're
52:05going to go.
52:06>> But it's just it's over and over the
52:09same concept
52:13and it's how
52:15I gauge the trend over and over. Like
52:18you could say this is one.
52:20>> Mhm. And then
52:23>> this is why it really comes down to
52:24people putting in the chart time and the
52:26work because
52:29based on your perception, you know, you
52:31might go a shorter one based on a couple
52:33candles coming down or you might feel
52:35uh, you know, better doing sort of the
52:37longer period, the whole sort of cycle
52:39of that. And that's where, you know,
52:41putting in that chart time over time,
52:43you'll develop the eye that you see for
52:46identifying the highs and lows uh based
52:49on what you see. And that's going to be
52:50so important, right? Because regardless,
52:52unless you see it for yourself and you
52:55feel that confidence to a degree in
52:57terms of like what you're seeing, that's
52:59the only way you're going to be able to
53:00execute properly.
53:01>> Yeah. Yes. Nothing there's no YouTube
53:05video. There's there's nothing that
53:07anyone could teach you that will beat
53:09just the time you invest staring at the
53:12charts and just kind of like learning
53:14how they breathe. Um, okay.
53:18This is Bitcoin.
53:21This is this is a current chart.
53:24Now, what I would say is I would either
53:29do it like this or let's say like that.
53:33Okay. I would say this is one that's
53:35forming. So, if we measure
53:37>> the distance, so that's
53:42>> 6100.
53:43>> 61.
53:45So, no 30,000, right?
53:48Yeah, dollars. Yeah. $30.
53:49>> Okay. 30,000. So, the low here is um
53:55like right around here.
53:56>> Mhm.
53:58>> If this continues to form, I mean,
54:01Bitcoin's coming down. Let's see.
54:05We're saying 111, let's say, to
54:09let's just say 80. It's gonna So,
54:15if this continues to form, it's gonna
54:17drop it. It's going to drop to
54:19>> the 50s.
54:24>> So, that's the direct bottom. And that
54:26is the high 30,300. And then we do it
54:29again.
54:37>> It's around the 50,000.
54:39>> So, there you go. That is one in real
54:41time that has not completed. And if it
54:45continues that pattern, that's where
54:47it's going. 50,000
54:51>> which is a long way off.
54:52>> It is a long way off. It'll scare a lot
54:53of people. No doubt especially a lot of
54:55the uh the crypto scene. So in this case
54:58then you know you you mark it out and
55:02let's say if you wanted to execute on
55:04this would you then be going lower time
55:06frames um in order to to execute and
55:09enter?
55:10>> No. If I wanted to play this actual move
55:13I would just short it until here. Now,
55:17mind you, shorting that many points on a
55:20long-term
55:21>> chart is is not um
55:23>> in my trading strategy, but we'll go
55:26into some like shorter time frames and
55:28show you like times that you you could
55:31>> you could do it. So, let's So, if we're
55:34looking at Bitcoin,
55:36I'm bearish.
55:38>> I see a little ris. It looks like it's
55:41going to come under 60,000 to me. That's
55:45what I see. And let me go to a um
55:51monthly chart. Yeah, look it. It's going
55:54to bring you.
55:56>> Yeah, it doesn't look good. I'm sorry.
55:59Don't play the [laughter]
56:00>> Don't worry.
56:01>> I don't mind. I'm not I'm learning
56:03Bitcoin.
56:04>> And then um let's go to That's not
56:07right.
56:10What did I
56:12on Thursday?
56:15So this is an actual play I posted in
56:18live time on X that you could go back
56:19and reference. Um when it got like down
56:22here, I had said that um I thought it
56:27was going to reverse. And part of the
56:30reason I saw that is I kind of saw this
56:32um I saw this one kind of form here. Or
56:34maybe I could have drawn it like that.
56:37And um it was way the the the market the
56:42NASDAQ was down over 2% at that point.
56:44And and you have to kind of say to
56:46yourself, this is probably the low. The
56:49market doesn't often statistically fall
56:513%.
56:52>> So, we're probably going to get a bounce
56:54here. And we had like this this little
56:56rzzy completed the we we we still
57:00dropped the distance from here to here.
57:01We came down here. Then we had a little
57:03sideways trade and um we start we formed
57:08one
57:10going up. And so I I used these and I
57:14had gauged that at some point down here.
57:17I kind of saw this forming and I was
57:19saying, "Hey, you know what? The next
57:21stop's going to be around 25,900
57:24and we ended up hitting 25
57:27900." And that's how I was able to make
57:32that call. Again, I saw this last little
57:36ry form. I saw how far it dropped. I
57:40knew that the market was down over 2%
57:42and it doesn't statistically happen that
57:44much. We're at the lower end of the
57:46Ballinger band. I see the trend start to
57:49change and I was able to gauge that it
57:52was probably going to run to about 25900
57:54on a bounce. And the other thing I did
57:57was I took I kind of took this uh the
58:01bottom of this little rzzy and I and I
58:03was and I did this is a separate
58:05something. I I drew this before I had
58:08any of these candles. I kind of drew out
58:11a trend line from these and I asked
58:14myself, okay, if we're going to bounce,
58:16it made sense to me that it would
58:18probably try to come up and hit this,
58:20which was right around 25,900 in at what
58:24with with which was what I was thinking
58:26at the time. But you can see
58:32how the trend changes.
58:36>> Do you have any questions? No, I I can
58:39understand it. I can see it as well. So,
58:40if you were to measure it from uh it
58:43would be what? This low here to there
58:47and that would give you 147. And then
58:51from down here to 147 would be roughly
58:58just there.
59:01And there you have Oh, I used the wrong
59:03one which is fine. But you saw Yeah.
59:05fades out, you're low. And that's why
59:07it's so important to always have
59:09context. I think a lot of people assume,
59:11oh, okay, here are the rules and that's
59:14it. When in reality, it's like aligning
59:16your rules because you could have your
59:18rules present itself, but then you're in
59:20a poor position in the market,
59:22>> but you're just ticking boxes.
59:24>> Yeah. And so, I would I would say to
59:26traders, because I know everyone has
59:28their own trading strategy, but we all
59:31need to identify trends when they're in
59:33place, when they're changing, when
59:34they're turning. It's it's just
59:36something they can add to what they're
59:38already doing to kind of
59:40>> see if it aligns to the trade they're
59:43going to play. You know, if they're
59:45coming in here and you're wanting to go
59:46short, um if you're coming in right here
59:49and you're wanting to go short,
59:52>> but this little rzy already bottomed
59:54out, you're at you're getting close to
59:56being out of reality on the bullinger,
59:58man. This is not a good time to go
59:59short.
1:00:00>> Yeah,
1:00:00>> this is a good time to go in for a
1:00:02bounce to go long. And I mean um you can
1:00:06see how the price usually trades within
1:00:09the bands. But again for Bitcoin
1:00:19I just I don't see
1:00:24I I see it going down towards Do we do
1:00:27this right? Is this
1:00:28>> That's the market cap. Hold on.
1:00:30>> There we go. Is that No, I'm clicking on
1:00:32the wrong one. Here we go.
1:00:37I see it going down under 60,000 to near
1:00:41near
1:00:4450,000. I
1:00:46and it looks to me as as in that that's
1:00:49one that would complete.
1:00:51>> So like I I would not be going long
1:00:52Bitcoin right now.
1:00:54>> Let's take a break for a minute there,
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1:02:24today. Now, let's get back to the
1:02:26episode.
1:02:27>> Okay. Now, for my So, this is this is my
1:02:30my short
1:02:31>> play in real time. Okay. Now for my long
1:02:34play in real time. It's HH Howard
1:02:38Hughes.
1:02:39>> Interesting.
1:02:40>> This is my
1:02:41>> Is this a airline?
1:02:43>> No, it's a holding company. So we all
1:02:47know Warren Buffett
1:02:48>> stepping away has stepped away from
1:02:51Birkshshire.
1:02:52>> Howard Hughes Holdings
1:02:55>> in my belief and from what they're
1:02:57trying to do, they're trying to step in
1:02:58to be the next
1:03:00>> Birkshshire. Now, they were they were
1:03:02initially like a real estate company,
1:03:04but they've got a $1 billion investment
1:03:06and they have been restructured and
1:03:09they're now turning into like a holding
1:03:10company, holdings company. And this is
1:03:13all stuff that's currently um happening
1:03:17like the past year.
1:03:18>> A big part of this, it's combining the
1:03:21chart with the fundamentals, right? So
1:03:24we have Howard Hughes Holding being
1:03:27restructured and it's not just going to
1:03:29primarily be a real estate company
1:03:31anymore. They're going to actually
1:03:32invest and become the primary
1:03:34stakeholder in other businesses and
1:03:36they're going to have an insurance
1:03:37driven model also which is what Warren
1:03:39Buffett did through Birkshshire. So
1:03:41they're trying to literally copy
1:03:43>> his steps.
1:03:44>> Yeah.
1:03:45>> And I think this is what's going to take
1:03:48over as the next Birkshshire Hathway in
1:03:51our generation. And if you invested in
1:03:53Birkshshire Hathway in the beginning,
1:03:56uh, you would have made like five
1:03:57million%. Obviously, that was like the
1:03:591960s or something, but I think the
1:04:02chart combined with the shift in the
1:04:05company and the fundamentals, it makes
1:04:07sense to me. Now, what I see when I look
1:04:10at this is I see one that formed right
1:04:13here that has not finished yet. This is
1:04:17sort of a lower one. So, if you measure
1:04:19the distance
1:04:23from here
1:04:25to here.
1:04:27Okay, Rez, come on. Add the next one.
1:04:31I'll figure it out one day. How to use
1:04:33Trading View.
1:04:34>> So, okay.
1:04:3766. We put up here somewhere.
1:04:42>> So, it's almost a or it is probably a
1:04:45double if this finishes. Let's see.
1:04:49It'll be just under that. But yeah,
1:04:52>> so it's currently around 81 double.
1:04:56Yeah.
1:04:56>> Yeah. If this if this finishes, it's
1:04:58going up towards 175. And I see it
1:05:02finishing. And when you combine this
1:05:04little RZY and you see how far it's
1:05:06going to go for this one to finish. This
1:05:08is a monthly um chart on Howard Hughes
1:05:11Holdings.
1:05:13You combine it with the fundamentals.
1:05:15you see this, you also like realize like
1:05:19a lot of these people that are going to
1:05:22be take I I don't want to say they're
1:05:23going to take their money out of
1:05:24Birkshshire, but they're they're going
1:05:26to be looking for the next one.
1:05:29>> They may find their eyes on this and
1:05:31they may start investing and then they
1:05:32also have that $1 billion that they're
1:05:35going out there to um invest in other
1:05:38companies. They'll basically be like a
1:05:40they'll use like their cash flow from
1:05:43the real estate investments and the uh
1:05:46the new money that got invested. They'll
1:05:48use that to um buy these other
1:05:50businesses. They actually become like
1:05:52primary stakeholders. It's not like a
1:05:53hedge fund when they come in and buy and
1:05:55they take like a minority stake of
1:05:56companies like they're they're going to
1:05:58run these companies and that's what
1:05:59Warren Buffett did.
1:06:00>> Um Dairy Queen. So it it all makes sense
1:06:05because the whole business model for the
1:06:07company is changing and the structure
1:06:10and the new investments and then Warren
1:06:12Buffett stepping away. Howard Hughes
1:06:14holding possibly coming in to take over
1:06:16its place. It makes sense why you could
1:06:18get this move up so high that it's
1:06:22basically more than a double from here.
1:06:25And I think it could happen fast. I
1:06:27really do. So this is my favorite
1:06:29bullish chart right now that I can find.
1:06:32And again, I'm showing you one in like
1:06:34real time how I would view it and how I
1:06:36would price it out.
1:06:38>> So, in terms of then this one in
1:06:39particular might be something which you
1:06:41might invest longterm in. For example,
1:06:44>> if it was a trade
1:06:46>> um like the the five minute uh chart we
1:06:49were looking at on the NASDAQ, uh how
1:06:52would you go about sort of entering that
1:06:54trade or how would you go about looking
1:06:55at that?
1:06:56>> Um let me pull up. Let's see how this
1:06:59one looks on a five minute. So right
1:07:02here is they're contradicting, right?
1:07:05You actually have two in play right
1:07:07here.
1:07:10You have this one. This is the hourly
1:07:12chart which would push you,
1:07:14>> you know, up here
1:07:16>> previous high. Yeah.
1:07:17>> Oops. Or you could also argue
1:07:21you have this one that could bring you
1:07:23down here. So what I would do like in
1:07:25this scenario, if something like this
1:07:27comes up, I would wait for one of these
1:07:29to break and I might enter. So, if if
1:07:32this starts trading sideways right here
1:07:35and goes up, that that would tell me
1:07:37this little grizzly is probably the one
1:07:39in play. If this continues to go down
1:07:42>> um and and break this and and come down
1:07:46um lower than this trend line, like
1:07:47maybe down here, I'd be like, "Okay,
1:07:49this one is probably the one in play."
1:07:51>> So, where do you like place stops in in
1:07:53that scenario? Is it above the trend
1:07:55line high or just above the recent the
1:07:57most recent high? So, in this case,
1:08:00let's say I didn't care about this other
1:08:04one that could be forming and I wanted
1:08:05to just play this one long. I think it's
1:08:07going to continue and I wanted to play
1:08:08this one long.
1:08:09>> Yeah.
1:08:10>> Um,
1:08:11>> I would probably put a stop. Okay, let's
1:08:15say we're saying like this we're we're
1:08:17thinking this is one that's forming. So,
1:08:19we're thinking it's it's going to come
1:08:21down. I I would probably place a stop
1:08:23like right above the high of this
1:08:25candle, like right here.
1:08:27>> Okay. like maybe
1:08:29I don't exactly like to use the exact
1:08:32high of the candle, but I do it like
1:08:35right here
1:08:36>> in that that that trend line broke.
1:08:39>> And I would play it for this to complete
1:08:42down here. Now, you you do want to
1:08:44always make sure that wherever you're
1:08:46putting your stop that um the distance
1:08:49from where the price is at to where your
1:08:51stop is at
1:08:54I believe should be less than or equal
1:08:57to the profit you would take if it
1:08:59dropped in this pattern completed. I
1:09:01would never want to put my stop um so it
1:09:04would be higher than whatever the profit
1:09:06I could make. And that's kind of like
1:09:07personal preference
1:09:09>> if people want to do like
1:09:10>> Do you have a minimum threshold that you
1:09:12would look for?
1:09:13>> Um,
1:09:15>> no. I wouldn't say like I have like a
1:09:17minimum threshold,
1:09:18>> but I would say I prefer not to play the
1:09:22ones down here after we've had this
1:09:25move.
1:09:26>> I prefer for there to be like an uptrend
1:09:30>> and try to come in and play like this
1:09:33one. So like the first one after an
1:09:35uptrend, the second one after an
1:09:37uptrend, probably when these start
1:09:39forming down here, I probably wouldn't
1:09:41have take that taken them. But like so
1:09:44this one would not be one of my
1:09:47favorites to take because it's already
1:09:50down so far.
1:09:51>> So in this case, you might have taken
1:09:52say from here to here. that would have
1:09:54been one that
1:09:55>> would be a case where in terms of entry
1:09:57wise you'd want this to close and when
1:09:59you see this um you close below the the
1:10:02sort of mid-range of the Ballinger
1:10:05alongside where you're positioned in the
1:10:07market you'd enter. So we can actually
1:10:09put on the short tool here. So say you
1:10:12enter
1:10:13and then in this case your stop loss
1:10:15probably be not directly on the high
1:10:16just slightly above
1:10:18>> right
1:10:18>> and then measuring low to high here.
1:10:21Yes,
1:10:21>> this would probably put us at well or
1:10:22that would put us here which would be
1:10:26three. So maybe something roughly
1:10:29without marking on it would be something
1:10:30like that. Um
1:10:32>> would that be kind of what you're going
1:10:33for?
1:10:34>> Yes.
1:10:34>> And then would it be similar on the next
1:10:36one? So if we just mark out one more it
1:10:37would be a case where it's like here to
1:10:39well not this.
1:10:40>> You see the little rizy? Do you get it?
1:10:42>> It's in my DNA now. That's
1:10:44>> literally
1:10:45>> um to high down to low and then same
1:10:48thing. So maybe with this one it might
1:10:49be slightly different because um of
1:10:53where the candle's closed, right? It
1:10:55might have closed down here. So maybe
1:10:56you might be getting in a bit of a a
1:10:59lesser um entry point, like not as
1:11:03precise as you may like it, but
1:11:04regardless,
1:11:05>> but the low to high in this case is
1:11:07still pretty substantial. Let's mark it
1:11:09out for accuracy.
1:11:11>> So below to the high. You're not going
1:11:14to catch them all, but the more that you
1:11:17try to do this and the more time you
1:11:19spend staring at charts, the better you
1:11:21get at it and the easier they are to
1:11:24catch. Um,
1:11:27>> 515 would be roughly there, which would
1:11:29put us
1:11:32like something like this, right?
1:11:33>> Yes.
1:11:33>> So then still be an over uh two to one
1:11:36in that in in that instance. Yeah. So
1:11:38really it comes down to where we're
1:11:40positioned in the market.
1:11:41>> Yes. Um so you don't regardless of the
1:11:44rules if we're at a low point bit more
1:11:47reluctant to sell at that point right um
1:11:50rather prefer a buy to start form same
1:11:53with you know if we're at highs that's
1:11:55not really we want to be buying
1:11:56regardless of whether they're presenting
1:11:58there we want to be selling so is that
1:12:00where does an element for you as you
1:12:03mentioned you know it's quite fractal
1:12:04this and how it sets up like it doesn't
1:12:07matter about the time frame so say if
1:12:09you identified on the daily a bullish uh
1:12:14a little rzzy it's a bit weird if I say
1:12:16right um but a bullish one but then
1:12:20price is already at a high on that day
1:12:23you might be waiting sort of to align
1:12:26with price coming towards the low of
1:12:28that uh daily pattern
1:12:31>> but presents a bullish on a lower time
1:12:33frame for you to then
1:12:34>> execute yes
1:12:36>> so do you layer the time frames in a way
1:12:38if you are shorter term versus longer
1:12:40term Yes. And you know, one of the
1:12:42things that um you'll also start
1:12:44noticing is
1:12:47Oh, we're on five minute. Okay. I'm I'm
1:12:49probably going to drop it down to a one
1:12:51minute to show you because I've stared
1:12:52at these for so long. To anyone else,
1:12:55this might just look like sideways
1:12:57candles, but to me, if I lower the time
1:12:59frame, I'm I'm going to see a little
1:13:01rising more clearly. I'm if I lower this
1:13:04time frame,
1:13:06>> even though this is like sideways
1:13:07candles, I'm going to see that that was
1:13:10probably one forming. And so this is
1:13:12like And what time are we're at?
1:13:15>> So we remember
1:13:17Friday 1905.
1:13:21>> Does the time of day at all impact your
1:13:24decision to trade or any time of day?
1:13:26>> I hate the open.
1:13:28>> Really?
1:13:28>> I hate it. Do you trade the open?
1:13:30>> I don't know.
1:13:31>> I Wait, let me say this. I hate the New
1:13:33York session open. I like the London
1:13:36open. I like all the other opens in New
1:13:38York. It's too volatile.
1:13:39>> I just I stay out of um
1:13:42I stay out of New York's open, but um
1:13:48there's seasonality within the day and I
1:13:51would highly suggest everyone study it.
1:13:53It will really blow your mind. um
1:13:55there's certain hours of the day that um
1:13:59are net negative historically
1:14:02>> over hundreds of year well not hund
1:14:05let's say like 50 years because the
1:14:06studies I've seen most of them have gone
1:14:08back about 50 years um and one of the
1:14:12things you will find is that like the
1:14:14New York session is usually net negative
1:14:16>> and the rest of the time is net positive
1:14:19which is kind of interesting there was
1:14:21actually a study done in '08
1:14:23>> and Um, it said during the '08 crash,
1:14:29if you had just like bought the New York
1:14:32open and sold the New York close like
1:14:35throughout the whole crash down, I don't
1:14:37know exactly, but it was something like
1:14:39you lost like 45%
1:14:42or something. If you had done the
1:14:44reverse and you had actually bought the
1:14:47close of the New York session and then
1:14:49and held overnight and sold the open,
1:14:51you were net positive and you made like
1:14:548%.
1:14:55>> Mhm.
1:14:55>> Even during 2008
1:14:57>> crashing. Yeah.
1:14:58>> So like I would highly suggest everyone
1:15:00study seasonality. It's very
1:15:02interesting. So that stuff really does
1:15:05matter. So what that would tell me is
1:15:07that like statistically there's always a
1:15:09bias towards going short during the New
1:15:11York session. Yeah,
1:15:12>> except towards the end of the day it
1:15:14tends to shift.
1:15:15>> There is there is usually like a run
1:15:17towards the end of the day. So I think
1:15:19this is
1:15:20>> this is what we were just looking at at
1:15:21the five minute chart. And you can kind
1:15:23of see when you zoomed in from the five
1:15:25minute to the one minute it was a little
1:15:27bit more easy to see.
1:15:29>> Yeah. So that's one of the things
1:15:33if you're trying to learn these
1:15:39I when you see something like this Yeah.
1:15:42>> and you're like, "Hey, this might be
1:15:43it." Zoom in and you might see it more
1:15:45clearly on a lower time frame.
1:15:49Whereas on here, it just looks kind of
1:15:51like it's trading sideways. And you'll
1:15:53eventually
1:15:55learn them. And it's just a really
1:15:57helpful way to understand the trend.
1:16:00>> No, definitely. I think that's
1:16:01definitely, you know, goes back to your
1:16:02point from the original uh podcast is
1:16:04spending that time dedicated to the
1:16:07charts because, you know, me, I remember
1:16:09going back to when I first started
1:16:10learning charts. And, you know, I had
1:16:13just done an extensive two-day course
1:16:15with people like, you know, learning all
1:16:16these concepts, but as soon as I was by
1:16:18myself, it all felt like gibberish.
1:16:19Like, I couldn't see anything like what
1:16:21was I looking at? And only through then
1:16:23rep repetition, repetition, repetition
1:16:25do you slowly start to build your
1:16:26confidence. And only at this stage
1:16:28really over the last couple years um I
1:16:32was spending a lot of time on lower time
1:16:33frames. So then to your point looking at
1:16:35something like this you can sort of see
1:16:36that without even going lower we can
1:16:38start of sort to see the structure. So
1:16:41if I was to just look at it and try and
1:16:43break it down it would be a case where
1:16:45we know one minute wise these are all
1:16:47highs and lows that are taking place and
1:16:50then that breaks. So we know on a one
1:16:52minute already that there's a break of
1:16:53structure that's taking place there. The
1:16:54trend changed on that lower time frame
1:16:56whether it stays there or not. We can
1:16:58already have that understanding. But for
1:16:59a new person, they won't probably know
1:17:01that until they do as you said the
1:17:03repetitions and uh get that chart time
1:17:05in to really train the eyes to see the
1:17:08market in that way. Well, back to your
1:17:10point for the whole concept and strategy
1:17:12we've gone through today, you know, it's
1:17:14really taking all of these concepts you
1:17:16could learn and sort of trickling it
1:17:18down to three key components to focus
1:17:20on. And the amazing thing about it
1:17:22really is that it's fractal as well. So,
1:17:24it's not a case where, hey, this only
1:17:25works on a big macro perspective. You
1:17:28can shrink this all the way down, but to
1:17:30your point as well, the nuances of
1:17:32practice, right? And you're not going to
1:17:35see the same thing as everyone else.
1:17:37You've really got to decipher and pick
1:17:39up on the the traits and the patterns
1:17:42and the reoccurring themes that you
1:17:44notice through doing your back test or
1:17:46doing your live charing or your data
1:17:49collection.
1:17:49>> Yeah. Right.
1:17:50>> I get a lot of messages from people that
1:17:52tell me they have a problem with selling
1:17:54too early, like they can't let winners
1:17:56ride, you know. I would say if also if
1:17:58you have some strategy that you follow
1:18:00and you're struggling with trying to let
1:18:04your winners ride, you might want to add
1:18:06this to what you're already doing
1:18:08because it might give you more
1:18:09confidence to let some of your winners
1:18:11ride. If you see, hey, this little RZY
1:18:13formed, it's in my favor. it's going to
1:18:15go up another 50 ticks or something that
1:18:18this might be what gives you the
1:18:19confidence to stay in it and and let it
1:18:22ride because most of our money is coming
1:18:25from the ones that we in my eyes again
1:18:27all the traders will contradict
1:18:28themselves in my eyes the ones that I
1:18:30let run are the ones that end up making
1:18:32all my money. So learning how to let
1:18:34winners run is a really important skill.
1:18:38And so this might give you that extra
1:18:40confidence you need if you see this
1:18:43aligns with it to just let it go until
1:18:44this is done and then you might get out
1:18:46and take your profit.
1:18:48>> Definitely. Definitely. And aside from
1:18:50what we've talked about, just to finish
1:18:51off in regards to, you know, the chart
1:18:54time and that sort of preparation and
1:18:56dedication to doing so and training the
1:18:57eyes, is there anything when it comes to
1:18:59implementing this that stands out to you
1:19:01as something that people should be aware
1:19:03of um or maybe a particular struggle
1:19:06point um that they should be aware of
1:19:08then when they're trying to implement or
1:19:10look at this? Um, I would say before you
1:19:13just walk out and start trying to do it,
1:19:15spend time practicing it because you're
1:19:18going to make a lot of mistakes in the
1:19:19beginning. I'm still wrong a lot to this
1:19:21day uh with trying to identify them in
1:19:24real time. So practice drawing them
1:19:27historically and identifying them
1:19:29historically so you can grasp the
1:19:30concept, but then also spend a lot of
1:19:34time doing them um in real time where
1:19:37they're not complete yet. So you can
1:19:40start to learn um
1:19:43things you're missing, when you're
1:19:45coming in too early, um when you're
1:19:47right, when you're wrong, and you'll
1:19:49just slowly get better at perfecting it.
1:19:52Now I I'm telling you like the longer
1:19:54time frames it's a lot easier to do.
1:19:56That's why I say I love this strategy
1:19:57for trying to find the bottom of stock
1:19:59market crash if you want to enter take a
1:20:01big position or you just want to like
1:20:02overleverage your portfolio. You know
1:20:06those those would be the moments. And I
1:20:08I think because um if you're doing on a
1:20:11fiveminute charts the data is coming in
1:20:13fast you have to make quick decisions.
1:20:14So, I think sometimes learning it on the
1:20:17longer time frames can be easier um
1:20:19because you can spend more time
1:20:22analyzing it and you can add other
1:20:24things to it also and get all of your
1:20:26fib retracements in there and you can
1:20:28look at the the fundamentals in the
1:20:31economy and see if they kind of align.
1:20:33Whereas, when you're on the five minute
1:20:35charts, you you don't have the time to
1:20:37do all that and it's really um won't be
1:20:41as helpful. So just practice, practice,
1:20:44practice. Don't just jump in and swim
1:20:46and start doing it and think you have
1:20:47it. Like take time practicing. And like
1:20:49I said in words of wisdom.
1:20:51>> The longer you stare at charts, they
1:20:54will eventually start to speak to you
1:20:56and you will get it and you will start
1:20:58to see it. So just take your time before
1:21:01you start putting money behind it.
1:21:03>> Definitely. I love that. Well, I will
1:21:04apologize in advance for all the
1:21:06messages you'll probably get off the
1:21:07back of this episode. Um because no
1:21:10doubt there'll be people with questions.
1:21:11drop them in the comments below. But
1:21:13thank you for doing this as well. Again,
1:21:14you know, you turned us down before, but
1:21:16I think thanks to the people and the,
1:21:18you know, constant um, you know,
1:21:19questions and ask to get you on
1:21:21Chanatics, we been graciously um, you
1:21:24know, really, really happy to have you.
1:21:26Really, really happy to have you. But
1:21:27any comments or questions, like I said,
1:21:29drop them in the comments section below.
1:21:30Let us know what you thought to this
1:21:32episode. Links to Marci will be in the
1:21:34description below, so go check those
1:21:36out. Also, other episodes are on screen
1:21:38right now, so make sure you check them
1:21:40out. Actually, we have one with Anthony
1:21:41Crudell who went through the Ballinger
1:21:43band. So, maybe that could be a good
1:21:44sort of connection point there. But, hit
1:21:47subscribe and until next time, this has
1:21:49been Char Fanatics. Take a

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