SPX MOVING, INTERESTING DATA... AND BITCOIN? — Transcript

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1. 0:00hello everybody how are you sorry baby
2. 0:03came here a bit later today but I was
3. 0:04shooting for some data I'll be fighting
4. 0:06for the consumer confidence that came at
5. 0:09101.3 it fell koala to be honest the
6. 0:12expected was a hundred for the one and
7. 0:15if we check what they actually said
8. 0:17let's come here
9. 0:20here the expectation index based on
10. 0:23consumer short-term outlook for income
11. 0:25business and labor market conditions
12. 0:27fell to 6801
13. 0:29from 74. the expectation index has now
14. 0:32remained below 80 the level associated
15. 0:35with a recession within the next year
16. 0:37okay I have basically telling you that
17. 0:39consumers became more pessimistic about
18. 0:41the outlook for both business conditions
19. 0:44and labor markets
20. 0:46so basically telling you that a consumer
21. 0:48is worried
22. 0:50and under respecting adaptation and how
23. 0:52can they not
24. 0:54if everybody is calling foreign
25. 0:57so this is normal
26. 1:03so you are telling me that a consumer
27. 1:05confidence has dropped that their
28. 1:07respect in a recession that they are
29. 1:09getting quite pessimistic and worried
30. 1:11about their jobs the labor market and
31. 1:13the economy in the short term but at the
32. 1:15same time there is something that is not
33. 1:18matching here and is that the new home
34. 1:20sales is the data that just came into
35. 1:21right now
36. 1:23yes came in very hot
37. 1:2660
38. 1:28000 new houses have been sold during the
39. 1:32last month okay compared to the previous
40. 1:33one so you know how is that possible is
41. 1:37it because
42. 1:38they are getting used to high interest
43. 1:40rates the the consumers the consumer
44. 1:43spending hasn't slowed down I'm gonna
45. 1:45post a chart I'll try to post a thread
46. 1:47later today on on Twitter but they're
47. 1:50going to be able to see that the
48. 1:51consumer spending has not stopped
49. 1:53delegating used to high inflation High
50. 1:57interest rates and that's indeed a
51. 1:59problem because when you buy a house
52. 2:01unless if you are a cash buyer don't
53. 2:03need a mortgage with high interest rates
54. 2:05you want to pay a lot of money to the
55. 2:07bank because now it's expensive to get a
56. 2:09loan to get a mortgage they're gonna
57. 2:11have to buy fewer actually don't have to
58. 2:12go shopping
59. 2:13so this is
60. 2:16fueling inflation this is gonna be a
61. 2:19problem for the FED how is the Fed
62. 2:21gonna manage this problem is are they
63. 2:23gonna keep Rising interest rates until
64. 2:26they can suffocate the consumers
65. 2:30and then they have no choice
66. 2:33don't know it's definitely very tricks
67. 2:36here now in nine days we have the fomc
68. 2:38interest rate Division and a press
69. 2:41conference so
70. 2:43that's what I've told you guys the next
71. 2:4510 days is going to be very difficult to
72. 2:47trade so make sure to apply proper risk
73. 2:50management stop loss
74. 2:52maybe they take less straights don't
75. 2:54over trade because
76. 2:56this is the type of environment where
77. 2:59you want to be losing money is quite
78. 3:01choppy at the moment okay you know you
79. 3:03can see now in the last level of three
80. 3:05ways bitcoin price been coming up coming
81. 3:08back down up down up down and it's in a
82. 3:11Range it's choppy but anyway let's go to
83. 3:13the charts and see what Bitcoin is up to
84. 3:16as you can see Bitcoin hasn't done much
85. 3:19in the last 24 hours is still in this
86. 3:21range which is the weekend rain so
87. 3:24they are waiting for news announcements
88. 3:26okay they were more they are waiting now
89. 3:28because after the market closes today
90. 3:31we're gonna have the earnings from
91. 3:34Microsoft and Google
92. 3:36but remember it's gonna be after the SMP
93. 3:38market is closed
94. 3:40but Bitcoin is not close so Bitcoin is
95. 3:43gonna be able to react to it
96. 3:45so what we are anticipating is after the
97. 3:48market closes later today
98. 3:50there might be some volatility coming in
99. 3:53crypto and tomorrow in the stocks but
100. 3:56Bitcoin did something quite interesting
101. 3:58yesterday though remember that we were
102. 4:00saying that we were still in the weekend
103. 4:01range we had to Advance Auto liquidity
104. 4:03pool we're gonna go in a minute to the
105. 4:05high block and then to the opposite in
106. 4:07the one hour time frame sorry in the one
107. 4:09hour time frame
108. 4:11we had a wig that needs to be filled
109. 4:14that one okay
110. 4:15and Bitcoin you can see that yesterday
111. 4:16what they did is that they went and hunt
112. 4:19all those liquidations
113. 4:21all the way to the 26900 zone and then
114. 4:25bounced and if we go to the Daily time
115. 4:27frame
116. 4:28we can see that yesterday candle closed
117. 4:32above the daily 50ma and right now
118. 4:35currently water still above it so
119. 4:37I can't be very very serious because we
120. 4:40are above support are you gonna short
121. 4:42above support
122. 4:43I'm not but it's also not an area where
123. 4:46you can long very confident because if
124. 4:49we go to the one hour time frame we can
125. 4:51see that the 50 EMA is acting as a
126. 4:54resistance and we can't get above it and
127. 4:57when we went above it in this Zone here
128. 5:00we were now able to test the 50mes
129. 5:02support because this week's is not a
130. 5:05darnold test in the 50 image you can see
131. 5:06they didn't touch it and then when we
132. 5:08want to touch it we as well again
133. 5:11so
134. 5:12I can't long here because we're above
135. 5:15sorry because we are below
136. 5:17low time frame resistance
137. 5:20and I can short
138. 5:21because we are above high time frame
139. 5:24support so while I'm waiting here is
140. 5:27to see Bitcoin bouncing
141. 5:31and then retracing the 50ma and then
142. 5:34this is the moment where I can log okay
143. 5:35that this is a support and then it can
144. 5:37long and it and I'll Target this area
145. 5:39the weeks or in the other scenario if
146. 5:42you go to the Daily time frame I would
147. 5:44have to see something similar but in the
148. 5:46opposite way I would have to see a
149. 5:48candle
150. 5:49closing below the 50ma then I want to
151. 5:52see a retest
152. 5:55happens and we lose the daily 50ma I
153. 5:58can't favor shorts
154. 6:00okay so what I'm gonna be doing is
155. 6:03basically what I said I'm gonna be
156. 6:04waiting in the one hour time frame and
157. 6:06see if Bitcoin can get above the daily
158. 6:0950 the 1 hour 50ma sorry retest the
159. 6:12support and then that's what I'll go
160. 6:15along to the 50 of the week
161. 6:18let's check the liquidation hit them up
162. 6:20in the one month time frame let's see
163. 6:21how this liquidations around you can see
164. 6:24they are gone they are liquidated
165. 6:27it's a sad story but it's a sad game and
166. 6:30you can see how these two yellow bars
167. 6:32are 27 026 900 diff disappear now
168. 6:37and that's because some Traders got
169. 6:38liquidated guys that's what you must pay
170. 6:40attention to where the liquidity is okay
171. 6:43because you don't want to be that
172. 6:46liquidity and you can see that the
173. 6:47market intentionally spiked down
174. 6:50to Liquidators Traders okay those
175. 6:52positions now let's go to the seven days
176. 6:54time frame
177. 6:56I suppose that it's gonna be quite a
178. 6:58messy chart at the moment because we're
179. 7:00in a Range it's quite choppy
180. 7:03let's see if it loads
181. 7:05here we are
182. 7:10I mean yeah as you can see that we are
183. 7:11right between two big liquid liquidity
184. 7:14zones 28 350 to the upside
185. 7:18and 26 350 to the downside
186. 7:23and this is basically because when price
187. 7:25is spiking up in a Range the retail
188. 7:28Trader is programmed to think that when
189. 7:29prices going up it's gonna go higher so
190. 7:32here they're gonna open more longs
191. 7:34and in this Zone when price spikes down
192. 7:37that's what I think the opposite the one
193. 7:39I think that price is gonna break this
194. 7:41Zone and go lower
195. 7:43so the liquidations are going to
196. 7:45increase in both areas this only shows
197. 7:48that the market is being very choppy at
198. 7:51the moment it's very difficult to get
199. 7:53right now
200. 7:55um a good trade for some hours so I
201. 7:58would say wait for confirmation keep an
202. 8:01eye on that
203. 8:0250 EMA in there one hour time frame if
204. 8:05you want to open longs
205. 8:07okay if you want to open shorts keep an
206. 8:09eye on the 50 I mean the daily time
207. 8:11frame
208. 8:13and play your trades accordingly
209. 8:16now you might be wondering what's the
210. 8:18target if we break below the daily 50ma
211. 8:21well let's go to the Daily time frame
212. 8:24I'm gonna tell you my opinion
213. 8:26and
214. 8:27if we break below this purple line and
215. 8:31the candle closes below it and test it
216. 8:33back as a resistance then price is gonna
217. 8:36go lower all the way here to 25 200 why
218. 8:41because it's a Zone where there has been
219. 8:44two sell-offs okay so it was a big
220. 8:47resistance at the time so you can see
221. 8:49here price goes up
222. 8:51there's a sell-off price goes up there
223. 8:55is a lot and this Zone has been tested
224. 8:58at support yet so
225. 9:00eventually
226. 9:01if price goes lower and breaks below
227. 9:03this Zone then the next Target is going
228. 9:06to be 25 200. what I don't like here is
229. 9:09that most Traders I'm saying are calling
230. 9:12for this target here above support
231. 9:15let's see what happens okay because you
232. 9:17know the theory of the contrary opinion
233. 9:19when people are bullish prices usually
234. 9:23goes low goes lower
235. 9:25and when people are the batteries like
236. 9:27now price usually bounces okay so be
237. 9:31patient let's see what the market gives
238. 9:32us and then we're gonna play with that
239. 9:35let's check really quickly how the
240. 9:37dollar Index and the SMP is doing
241. 9:38because you had some projections going
242. 9:40on there
243. 9:41oh I see just but it's bouncing now okay
244. 9:43that's interesting because you can see
245. 9:45that in this Zone
246. 9:46that is quite an important resistance
247. 9:48and there were a lot of spikes to this
248. 9:50Zone you can see all it's all weeks so
249. 9:53basically I think that they were
250. 9:54building their shorts price goes low
251. 9:57and now it's bouncing again and what do
252. 10:00you think is going to happen now well
253. 10:01I'm gonna tell you what I believe I
254. 10:03think the retail traditional thing that
255. 10:04this zone is a resistance so price is
256. 10:06going to do exactly the same it's gonna
257. 10:07come here okay rejected and go down but
258. 10:12what I believe is that price is probably
259. 10:15most likely gonna go higher because
260. 10:17there is a lot of liquidity here imagine
261. 10:18all the stop losses that are placed in
262. 10:21this song so I think the dollar Index
263. 10:23the most probable scenario is that it
264. 10:24keeps going high
265. 10:26I'm breaks above this song now if you go
266. 10:29to the SMP
267. 10:30sorry a SXP
268. 10:32here okay if we go to this oh it's going
269. 10:36to the Box finally
270. 10:38so you can see very clearly again we
271. 10:40were saying this that 4100 it was going
272. 10:45to be our next Target twice was playing
273. 10:48around this box with this weeks you can
274. 10:50see
275. 10:51okay
276. 10:52but eventually again people think this
277. 10:55is gonna be support
278. 10:56so price goes lower hit or lose
279. 10:59liquidations and stop losses and I think
280. 11:02I want to be in this box for some time
281. 11:04but
282. 11:06I remember that I said this in one of
283. 11:08the most recent videos
284. 11:11I don't want to delete that box let me
285. 11:12remove this manually
286. 11:15okay
287. 11:17if price but I think price here it's
288. 11:21basically
289. 11:22consolidating and is doing a sideways
290. 11:25move after a leg up okay so this is to
291. 11:28me sideways now if we break below the
292. 11:314100 if we break below this box then
293. 11:34we're gonna have a big problem because I
294. 11:37think that most likely is the price
295. 11:39comes again to the 4 000 Zone okay so
296. 11:43that would be
297. 11:45around here so that's gonna that would
298. 11:48be a massive drop because
299. 11:50that is look for example here already
300. 11:52can't see that there is a zone that
301. 11:54should be
302. 11:55filled at some point as the 4020 so what
303. 12:00I mean with this is that this one needs
304. 12:02to hold
305. 12:03otherwise price is going to go lower and
306. 12:06Bitcoin should in theory follow
307. 12:10so keep an eye on this chart guys this
308. 12:13is pretty much everything I wanted to
309. 12:14say today I hope that you liked the
310. 12:16video and I see you soon