【SOX6％越え急落】AI収益化懸念が一気に増大！日本株は？　#米国株 #日経平均 #sp500 #soxl #nvda #spcx — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Good morning. This is Moriguchi. Thank
2. 0:02you for joining me again today. Today
3. 0:03is Friday, October 23rd, and look at
4. 0:06this. The SOX index is down over 6%. I
5. 0:09want to talk about how AI profit
6. 0:11expectations are shifting all at once.
7. 0:14The semiconductor SOX index, which had
8. 0:16been performing strongly on AI profit
9. 0:18expectations, has seen a major drop
10. 0:21today. I would like to introduce two
11. 0:24pieces of news that triggered this. The
12. 0:27Nikkei Stock Average has also plummeted
13. 0:29, but how are the futures moving in
14. 0:31this state? Let's take a close look. On
15. 0:34this channel, I provide technical
16. 0:36analysis based on the latest situations
17. 0:38, always aiming to keep things easy to
18. 0:40understand. I will continue to explain
19. 0:42things using the clearest possible
20. 0:44language so you can follow along just
21. 0:45by listening. Please subscribe to my
22. 0:47daily chart analysis channel, where I
23. 0:49make everything easy to understand.
24. 0:52Let's start right away with a review of
25. 0:53yesterday. First, the Nikkei Stock
26. 0:56Average fell 1,713 yen yesterday,
27. 0:58continuing to drop at the same angle
28. 1:00throughout the trading session. I think
29. 1:03it’s quite rare to see a day like
30. 1:04this. Because the closing auction also
31. 1:07saw a sharp drop, the closing price
32. 1:09ended up being the low of the day.
33. 1:13While there were many decliners, there
34. 1:15were also a fair number of gainers.
35. 1:18This means the Nikkei's rate of decline
36. 1:20was significantly larger than that of
37. 1:22the TOPIX. As expected, the declines
38. 1:25were led by AI semiconductor stocks,
39. 1:27with many falling quite sharply. Among
40. 1:30them, there were stocks that rose, such
41. 1:32as Trend Micro and BayCurrent. I will
42. 1:35introduce Sony later. It has hit a new
43. 1:38year-to-date high. Looking at the
44. 1:40sector rankings, the decliners included
45. 1:43non-ferrous metals, electric appliances
46. 1:45, and machinery. Insurance is up, but
47. 1:48banks and securities are down, showing
48. 1:50a mixed picture. Let's check the U.S.
49. 1:53stocks. As of 4:36, all indices are in
50. 1:56the negative, but the Dow is down only
51. 1:580.1%, which is quite limited. This also
52. 2:01gives the impression that there is a
53. 2:03clear divide between winners and losers
54. 2:04. The SOX index fell 6.96%, meaning it
55. 2:07was on the verge of dropping by about 7
56. 2:10%. European stocks are also noticeably
57. 2:12down today. Checking the heatmap by
58. 2:15sector, about half are up. I'd say
59. 2:19defensive stocks are strong while tech
60. 2:21is weak. As for the Dow, Johnson&
61. 2:24Johnson, Salesforce, and Home Depot
62. 2:27stand out. It's hard to see, but P&G is
63. 2:30also here. On the other hand, the
64. 2:32Nasdaq 100 is overwhelmingly red, with
65. 2:35even the large caps in the red. Among
66. 2:38them, Apple is continuing to perform
67. 2:40very steadily. Nikkei futures are also
68. 2:43down by 470 yen. It fell yesterday, so
69. 2:45being in the red today is a bit
70. 2:47concerning. The currency is also seeing
71. 2:49a stronger yen. It's at 156.82 yen. The
72. 2:53VIX topped 20 at one point, and the
73. 2:55Fear&Greed Index is back at 18, in the
74. 2:58extreme fear zone. Long-term interest
75. 3:01rates fell significantly and dipped
76. 3:03below 5%. Maybe that's why the Dow is
77. 3:05strong? Crude oil is in the $ 99 range,
78. 3:07which is higher than yesterday. And
79. 3:10crypto assets are also seeing
80. 3:12relatively large declines. Let's take a
81. 3:15look. With the SOX index down over 6%,
82. 3:18I'd like to talk about what triggered
83. 3:20this and how it impacts Japanese stocks
84. 3:22and futures. First, as always, let's
85. 3:25check the Nikkei Shimbun after the US
86. 3:28market opened. Regarding why the Dow
87. 3:31fell back, it was selling in AI-related
88. 3:34stocks, with Meta down 7%at one point;
89. 3:36one trigger was Meta Platforms '
90. 3:38earnings call. They indicated that
91. 3:43significant investment is still needed
92. 3:45for the AI agent "Muse" launched in
93. 3:47September, which fueled concerns over
94. 3:49AI profitability—the theme I used in
95. 3:52today's thumbnail—and it seems to
96. 3:54have exploded all at once. Also, among
97. 3:58semiconductor stocks, Lam Research saw
98. 4:00significant movement. It's a major
99. 4:03semiconductor equipment manufacturer;
100. 4:05their earnings were about as expected,
101. 4:08but it just wasn't enough. It was sold
102. 4:10off that much just for that. We'll look
103. 4:14at the chart later, but seeing it get
104. 4:16sold off even after falling this far is
105. 4:18quite tough. Crude oil has also neared
106. 4:21100 dollars, and the uncertainty
107. 4:23surrounding the situation in Iran is
108. 4:25one of the factors pushing stock prices
109. 4:27down. Let's check the economic
110. 4:29indicators. Today, the initial jobless
111. 4:32claims were released. They were
112. 4:35slightly lower than expected, which
113. 4:36highlighted the resilience of the
114. 4:38economy and likely led to the
115. 4:40relatively steady movement of the Dow.
116. 4:42Let's look at the stock trading volume
117. 4:44rankings. The top rankings are filled
118. 4:46with AI, semiconductor, and tech stocks
119. 4:49. They are all in the red. In first
120. 4:50place is SpaceX, which rose
121. 4:52significantly yesterday but was sold
122. 4:53off again today. It was a bearish
123. 4:55candle even as of yesterday, but by the
124. 4:57way, this week's magazine that analyzes
125. 4:59individual stocks in detail is looking
126. 5:00at SpaceX. It covers both the pros and
127. 5:02cons, so please check it out if you'd
128. 5:04like. And another one, Meta, is in
129. 5:06second place. With a 7.81%drop, I'd
130. 5:09like to take a look at this chart. Meta
131. 5:14has fallen due to its earnings call,
132. 5:16and with a large bearish candle,
133. 5:17various signals are appearing. The
134. 5:20lagging span has broken downward; this
135. 5:22is a sell signal. The conversion line
136. 5:23and base line have crossed. This is a
137. 5:25dead cross pattern, which also signals
138. 5:27a reversal. If it breaks below the
139. 5:29cloud as well, it becomes a triple
140. 5:31reversal, requiring even more caution.
141. 5:33Also, this shape looks exactly like a
142. 5:36double top, doesn't it? It looks like a
143. 5:39fairly clean double top, so it is
144. 5:41highly likely to be recognized as a
145. 5:43post-peak movement going forward.
146. 5:45Another one is the major semiconductor
147. 5:47manufacturing equipment maker, Lam
148. 5:49Research, which is one of the stocks
149. 5:51with a very large recent decline. After
150. 5:54wondering how many times it would keep
151. 5:57falling, the earnings report came out;
152. 5:59usually, if it beats market
153. 6:01expectations it's green, but even with
154. 6:03results on par with expectations, it
155. 6:05was sold this much, so I think it may
156. 6:07have been exacerbated by the news from
157. 6:09Meta. Let's check the daily chart of
158. 6:13the S&P 500. It has broken below the
159. 6:15base line, so it is negative in a sense
160. 6:17. The RSI has also fallen below 50.
161. 6:19However, it is still holding above the
162. 6:21cloud. I still get the sense that we
163. 6:23are within a high-price range. However,
164. 6:26it feels like the Nasdaq has worsened a
165. 6:28bit. In terms of the trend, starting
166. 6:31from this high, it’s moved to break
167. 6:33below the recent lows without exceeding
168. 6:35the highs, and it has fallen back into
169. 6:37the Ichimoku cloud. The lagging span
170. 6:39has also dipped completely below the
171. 6:41stock price, so it seems that several
172. 6:43bearish factors and concerns have
173. 6:45increased. The New York Dow, however,
174. 6:48turned positive toward the close,
175. 6:51ending up 0.01%on this chart. One
176. 6:55reason for this resilience could be the
177. 6:57decline in interest rates today, so
178. 6:59please keep in mind that there are
179. 7:01these volatile aspects as well. Amidst
180. 7:05all this, the SOX index is being sold
181. 7:07off quite aggressively. It has
182. 7:11completely fallen below the previous
183. 7:13low, and if it breaks through the
184. 7:15end-of-July low, everyone who bought
185. 7:17recently will be sitting on unrealized
186. 7:19losses—it's the same feeling as
187. 7:21looking at Japanese stocks right now—
188. 7:23so there is a risk of further decline;
189. 7:25we should keep a close eye on those
190. 7:27July lows. Regarding Nikkei futures,
191. 7:32they move over time, but by the 5
192. 7:34o'clock hour, they seem to have settled
193. 7:36down slightly, down 231 yen. However,
194. 7:40in yesterday's movement, while it
195. 7:42didn't break the recent low on an
196. 7:44intraday basis, it did on a closing
197. 7:46basis; if it drops another 200 yen from
198. 7:49there, it will break the intraday low
199. 7:51as well, so we may see a development
200. 7:53that keeps the July lows in focus.
201. 7:56Let's take a look at the trading value
202. 7:58rankings. Even for the top companies
203. 7:59falling significantly, in terms of
204. 8:01price levels, I believe they haven't
205. 8:03broken their July lows yet. What
206. 8:05concerns me is that SoftBank Group has
207. 8:07also fallen quite a bit and has broken
208. 8:09through. Since it has broken below the
209. 8:12July 30th low, if the supply and demand
210. 8:14balance has become heavy here, it might
211. 8:16remain in a tough spot, so I'd like to
212. 8:18perform a supply and demand analysis on
213. 8:20SoftBank Group today. By the way,
214. 8:22regarding Nikkei futures and the buy
215. 8:24bias, keep in mind that SoftBank
216. 8:26Group's stock price is also down in PTS
217. 8:28compared to yesterday's close. Let's
218. 8:30take a look at the Matsui Stock app.
219. 8:32Yes. I have now displayed the screen of
220. 8:34the Matsui Stock app. When using the
221. 8:36Matsui Stock app, I can see the daily
222. 8:38data on Kabutan here, but I can't see
223. 8:40the real-time data for the current day.
224. 8:42I use this one because it's faster.
225. 8:44Check the link in the description if
226. 8:46you'd like. Yesterday's margin buying
227. 8:49balance was 6.85%, which is when it
228. 8:51broke below the July lows, and it has
229. 8:54increased quite a bit. So, margin
230. 8:57buying has increased further, and the
231. 8:59ratio is at a level that feels the
232. 9:01heaviest in terms of supply and demand.
233. 9:06And, considering where we are, if
234. 9:08there’s another sudden drop during
235. 9:10the day, we could see a scenario where
236. 9:12the supply-demand imbalance triggers
237. 9:14further selling. It's still a stock
238. 9:18heavily influenced by indices, and many
239. 9:20AI semiconductor stocks are in this
240. 9:22situation, so caution is needed,
241. 9:24especially when they break below
242. 9:26support. On the other hand, Japanese
243. 9:29IP-related stocks have been quite
244. 9:31strong. Capital is flowing into quality
245. 9:36stocks, so if you keep an eye on these
246. 9:38fund rotations, there are investment
247. 9:40opportunities; conversely, since some
248. 9:42are plunging, it’s a phase where
249. 9:44diversifying risk is crucial. Now, here
250. 9:49is the summary of today's video. U.S.
251. 9:51stocks fell, and the decline in
252. 9:53semiconductor stocks was very
253. 9:55noticeable today. Concerns over massive
254. 9:57investment in AI and its monetization
255. 9:59were renewed during Meta's earnings
256. 10:01call. Lam Research, a major
257. 10:03semiconductor manufacturing equipment
258. 10:05maker, also saw a significant decline.
259. 10:07I thought the earnings were good, but
260. 10:09they didn't exceed expectations. It
261. 10:12feels like it has fallen a bit too much
262. 10:14. The Nasdaq dropped over 2%and fell
263. 10:18into the cloud, but the Dow managed to
264. 10:21turn positive. Earnings for some stocks
265. 10:25were good, and with falling interest
266. 10:27rates and strong results from P&G,
267. 10:29those factors are providing solid
268. 10:31support for share prices. Nikkei
269. 10:33futures are down, and as of yesterday,
270. 10:36they had already fallen by about 1,700
271. 10:39yen. Perhaps some of the after-hours
272. 10:40movements or points of concern were
273. 10:42already visible. I will explain the
274. 10:44trend lines later in this video. I am
275. 10:46quite concerned about SoftBank Group
276. 10:48breaking below its July lows. Moreover,
277. 10:50margin buying increased significantly
278. 10:52yesterday. Please keep in mind that the
279. 10:54supply-demand balance is becoming
280. 10:55heavier. On the other hand, Sony Group
281. 10:57has reached a new high. IP-related
282. 10:59stocks are quite strong. Since there is
283. 11:02a clear contrast, focusing on these
284. 11:04areas might reveal a way to diversify
285. 11:07risk. Now, let's check each index using
286. 11:10daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and RSI. Let's
287. 11:12take a look at the closing numbers. The
288. 11:14Dow Jones is up 0.02%, and the Russell
289. 11:17has also turned positive. This is where
290. 11:19the divergence has become quite clear.
291. 11:21The difference seems to stem from
292. 11:23whether or not semiconductor stocks are
293. 11:25included, or if AI concerns are a
294. 11:27factor. What about Nikkei futures? 660
295. 11:31yen. It feels completely different from
296. 11:33when I looked at it a moment ago. The
297. 11:34volatility is also quite high. Let's
298. 11:36start by looking at the Nikkei Stock
299. 11:37Average. With yesterday's 1,713 yen
300. 11:39drop, it hit a new low within this
301. 11:41current trend. It also updated its
302. 11:43recent low on a closing price basis.
303. 11:45Even if we assume a further drop of 500
304. 11:47or 600 yen from here, it looks like it
305. 11:50will break the intraday low. In that
306. 11:53case, the lower support becomes this
307. 11:55trend line, which is still valid for
308. 11:57the Nikkei Stock Average. A trend line
309. 12:01connects major lows, and this is a
310. 12:03long-term one drawn from quite some
311. 12:05time ago. Therefore, I think it is easy
312. 12:11to have expectations for it as support,
313. 12:13but since not many people may be
314. 12:15focused on it right now, if it fails,
315. 12:17it will just add to our concerns. I
316. 12:21intend to keep an eye on the balance
317. 12:23between this line and the stock price
318. 12:25for a while. Let's look at the TOPIX.
319. 12:27As for the TOPIX, it posted a 1.14%
320. 12:29decline with a bearish candle yesterday
321. 12:31, and it’s likely the lowest closing
322. 12:33price in this current trend. The
323. 12:35intraday low is lower than this, but
324. 12:37you could say it’s trading in a
325. 12:38consolidation phase. It keeps breaking
326. 12:40levels and recovering, so I feel that
327. 12:42if it drops another step lower, we
328. 12:44could be in trouble. This is the Growth
329. 12:47250 Index. Yesterday, it fell by 1.75%.
330. 12:50Despite reaching decent levels during
331. 12:52intraday trading, it ended up being
332. 12:54pushed down significantly, forming a
333. 12:55bearish candle. On the other hand,
334. 12:57while cybersecurity-related stocks are
335. 12:59very strong within the growth sector, I
336. 13:01think there are many more stocks that
337. 13:02are falling further. I believe that
338. 13:04point requires caution. This is the New
339. 13:06York Dow. It looks very good. Bullish
340. 13:08candles are continuing, and if it
341. 13:10manages to break through the cloud, it
342. 13:11will look like a great chart. I have
343. 13:13the sense that the heat here is
344. 13:15completely different from what I see in
345. 13:17other index indicators. I think it
346. 13:19means the U.S. economy itself is not in
347. 13:21bad shape. This is the S&P 500. It saw
348. 13:24a 1.21%decline, which happened exactly
349. 13:27at the moment the baseline rose sharply
350. 13:29. The lagging span, which shows the
351. 13:32closing price from 26 days ago, is here
352. 13:34, and the 26-day high plus low divided
353. 13:36by two was here until yesterday, but
354. 13:38the low has moved up by one notch.
355. 13:40Because of that, the baseline has also
356. 13:43moved up accordingly. As a result, a
357. 13:45sort of dead cross between the baseline
358. 13:47and the conversion line has appeared,
359. 13:49but as long as the baseline itself is
360. 13:50trending upward, I don't think you need
361. 13:52to worry too much. Let’s take a look
362. 13:54at the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has dropped
363. 13:56significantly and broken through its
364. 13:58recent lows, so this movement of
365. 13:59failing to exceed the previous high
366. 14:01while breaking the low, combined with
367. 14:02the price falling below the lagging
368. 14:04span and the cross of the conversion
369. 14:06and baselines, requires extreme caution
370. 14:07. However, the baseline is still
371. 14:09technically above, so there is still
372. 14:11some hope, but I would say the trend is
373. 14:13considerably worse than the S&P 500. I
374. 14:15think it’s due to the difference in
375. 14:17the ratio of the stocks included.
376. 14:19Regarding the Russell 2000, I mentioned
377. 14:21yesterday that it had a series of
378. 14:23bullish candles and was showing signs
379. 14:25of a recovery, and it's the same today
380. 14:27—it's posting a solid bullish candle
381. 14:29and finishing in the green, which is a
382. 14:31completely different movement from the
383. 14:33S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and certainly the
384. 14:35SOX index. I think it’s worth paying
385. 14:37attention to the flow of funds. Next is
386. 14:39the SOX index. It’s down 6.72%, and
387. 14:42within this downward trend, it is in a
388. 14:44very weak state, meaning the July low
389. 14:47—the low from the 29 th—will become
390. 14:50a benchmark. There are so many stocks
391. 14:53where that point was the lowest level.
392. 14:55SoftBank Group broke through that level
393. 14:57a step ahead of the rest, but what
394. 14:58about the SOX? If this breaks through
395. 15:00as well, it’s quite concerning. Yes,
396. 15:02so regarding today's sharp decline, I
397. 15:05think Meta's earnings call and the
398. 15:07sharp drop in Lam Research had a huge
399. 15:09impact on the SOX. On the other hand,
400. 15:12since interest rates are falling, there
401. 15:14are stocks that are relatively easier
402. 15:16to buy, and I'd like you to keep in
403. 15:18mind that some stocks are showing that
404. 15:20kind of reaction—but what do you
405. 15:22think? It has become very difficult.
406. 15:24Now, let me share an announcement again
407. 15:26today. I update my magazine analyzing
408. 15:28individual stocks every Friday with new
409. 15:30analysis articles. This time, it will
410. 15:32be an earnings analysis of SpaceX as a
411. 15:35US stock. I read through the earnings
412. 15:37materials quite thoroughly to see if
413. 15:38the stock price would take off, though
414. 15:40it actually plunged today. So, what is
415. 15:42it like? It’s actually quite
416. 15:44interesting when you analyze it. When I
417. 15:46broke it down, I realized that SpaceX
418. 15:48is truly an amazing company, so if you
419. 15:50just think of it as a "space company,"
420. 15:52I hope you'll take a look. The URL is
421. 15:54in the description box. It costs 900
422. 15:56yen per month, but with the free
423. 15:57membership feature, even just reading
424. 15:59the free portion will likely give you
425. 16:00some "aha" moments. Please check it out
426. 16:02. Alright, I'll wrap things up for
427. 16:03today here. If you found anything in
428. 16:05today's video helpful, please hit the
429. 16:06like button. I will continue to post
430. 16:08updates like this from tomorrow onwards
431. 16:09, aiming for 7:00 AM. If you listen in
432. 16:11the morning, please be sure to
433. 16:12subscribe to the Daily Chart Analysis
434. 16:14channel. I will see you again tomorrow
435. 16:16for more technical analysis. Goodbye.