YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Small Cap Runners by Time of Day: When They Start vs When They Peak

Small Cap Runners by Time of Day: When They Start vs When They Peak — Transcript

by Small Caps Trading Podcast · 6,108 words · 856 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00I want to talk about runners by time of
0:02day, meaning what can we know about
0:05runners based on the time that they
0:06started running? How do they behave if
0:08they started running in the early
0:10pre-market, in the middle of pre-market,
0:13in the end of pre-market? How do they
0:15behave if they started running right off
0:17the open, in the middle of the day,
0:19towards the end of the day, or in the
0:22after hours? Do they behave differently?
0:24And if so, how? There is a lot of value
0:26in understanding how they usually
0:28behave, because then you know what they
0:30do most of the times, and you can
0:32recognize when they're behaving
0:34differently from how they behave most of
0:36the times. Because once you have a
0:38cohesive map of how runners behave on
0:42average, based on the time of day that
0:45they run, all of a sudden the entire
0:47cycle of every single day makes perfect
0:50sense to you, and you know what to
0:52expect, and you know when things are
0:54behaving according to your expectations,
0:57and when they're behaving outside of the
0:59normal expectations. Let's get into it.
1:02>> [music]
1:12>> All right. All right. Welcome to today's
1:14video. We're talking about runners by
1:16time of day. How do they normally
1:18behave, and what do outliers look like?
1:21So, first of all, I want to properly
1:22define what we're talking about. We're
1:25talking about runners that run a lot in
1:28a single day. Usually 80% or more, 100%
1:32or more. Just so that there's no
1:33confusion about what I'm talking about
1:35when I say runner. And more
1:37specifically, I'm talking about the
1:39behavior of day one runners. Reason
1:42being is that most of the runners are
1:45day one runners. They're one day
1:47wonders. So, just quickly, in case you
1:49don't know, if you look at a 12-month
1:52period, if you look at the last year at
1:54any given time over the last few years
1:56in small caps, and said, "Hey, show me
1:58all of the small cap runners that ran at
2:01least 80% or more in a single day." And
2:04obviously you're doing your data
2:05research correctly, so you're removing
2:08all of the buyouts and all of the
2:10reverse split artifacts, and you know,
2:12you're you're looking just at the true
2:15runners that ran at least 80% or more,
2:18or even 100% or more in a single day,
2:21what you'll find is that those actually
2:23happen a huge amount of time over a
2:2512-month duration, a couple thousand
2:28times, actually. And of those couple
2:30thousand runners, 80% of them print
2:33their highs the same day that they ran,
2:36and then the next day, nothing. And the
2:39next day after that, nothing. Like they
2:41don't come back to those highs anytime
2:43soon. They're one-day wonder. But the
2:45remaining 20% do go the next day and
2:49sort of visit that high from the day
2:52before. But just because they go and
2:54visit that high from the day before,
2:57doesn't mean that one in five runners is
3:00going to make you money if you hold it.
3:02That's not what that means. What it
3:04means is that maybe it just barely
3:07visited that high the next day, and then
3:09splat, nothing. Or they just cleared
3:12that high by a little bit, you know,
3:14they do went a couple of percentage
3:15points higher, and then splat, nothing.
3:18But there is a small percentage that
3:21really keeps going. It goes way over the
3:24high of day one, either the next day, or
3:27the day after that, or the day after
3:28that, right? We call that a multi-day
3:30runner. So, I'm just setting the scene
3:32here so that you know what we're talking
3:34about, and that you understand the
3:35distribution of one-hit wonders versus
3:38multi-day runners. And the reason why
3:40that's important is that A, so that you
3:42contextualize the information I'm about
3:44to give you correctly, and B, so that
3:46you can build a trading strategy, or
3:49help this guide you towards a trading
3:51strategy, right? Because the
3:53implications of these are clear. Fading
3:56day one runners is a popular strategy
3:59for a reason, and finding the multi-day
4:02runners is a little tricky, because they
4:06represent a small percentage of the
4:08runners. So, understanding the behavior
4:11of runners by the time of day is really
4:14helpful, because A, if you want to fade
4:16them, then this can help guide you
4:18towards fading them a little bit better.
4:21And B, if you want to avoid the
4:23multi-day runners as a short, or catch
4:25the multi-day runners as a long, then
4:27this helps you as well, because they are
4:29the exception to the rule. They're the
4:31anomaly, and understanding the baseline
4:34helps you recognize when an anomaly is
4:37happening. So, what is this chart that
4:38I'm showing you on the screen here? This
4:40chart simply asks the question, when did
4:44the high of day happen for runners,
4:47based on when they started running? So,
4:49for example, if we're looking at the
4:514:00 a.m. runner, it's telling us that
4:544:00 a.m. runners, most of the time,
4:56more than 60% of the time, they peak in
4:59the pre-market. But there is still a
5:01substantial amount of time that they
5:03peak in the regular trading hours, and a
5:06very, very small percentage of the time
5:08they peak in the after hours. And the
5:10more you move right in the timeline, the
5:14more you see that distribution shift.
5:17So, 8:00 a.m. runners still mostly peak
5:20in the pre-market, but there's now a
5:22much more substantial portion of them
5:24that peaks in regular trading hour, and
5:26slightly more of them that peak in the
5:28after hours, as compared to the 4:00
5:30a.m. runners. And the more you move
5:33right in the timeline, the more that
5:35distribution shifts. So, I want to
5:37explain the baseline of the behavior of
5:40runners by time of day with a metaphor.
5:44The metaphor is a human runner, like an
5:47athlete that runs. And let's say that
5:50you find yourself an athlete, and you
5:52say, "Hey, I want you to run as fast as
5:55you can, as long as you can." Now, in
5:58real life, people sprint for a couple
6:00minutes. But the reality is that for
6:03stocks, on average, they tend to run for
6:06a few hours, right? So, let's say that
6:09our imaginary sprinter can run for a few
6:12hours. And so, I'll tell that sprinter,
6:14"I want you to sprint as fast as you
6:17can, and this imaginary sprinter can
6:20sprint for 4 hours, let's say. So, if I
6:23ask him to start his run at 4:00 a.m.,
6:27he's going to end it at around 8:00 a.m.
6:30And if I ask him to start his run at
6:32about 8:00 a.m., he's going to end it at
6:34about noon. And if I ask him to start
6:37his run at 10:00 a.m., he's going to end
6:39his run at about 2:00 p.m. And so on,
6:42and so on, and so on. Because the
6:44reality is that this sprinter can sprint
6:48for 4 hours in our imaginary metaphor,
6:50and it doesn't really matter when we ask
6:53him to start the run, the duration of
6:55the run is going to be the same. That is
6:59the baseline to understanding runners by
7:02time of day. That's what I learned when
7:04I did this research about runners by
7:06time of day. You see, I came into this
7:09research with biases, with things that I
7:11thought I already knew. I said, "Well,
7:14most runners peak before the open, in
7:17pre-market, or most runners peak before
7:2111:00 a.m. of the runners that make it
7:23past the open." And those are the truths
7:26that we sort of most of us know about
7:28small cap runners, right? But it didn't
7:31dawn on me that runners come at all
7:34hours of the day, and that they sort of
7:37all run for around the same amount of
7:39time. But the reality is that with these
7:42crazy runners that run a ton of
7:44percentages, they're basically a sprint,
7:47and that sprint has an average duration
7:49time, regardless of when the run starts.
7:52So, basically, if a stock starts running
7:56in the early pre-market, most of them
7:59tire out before the market opens. And
8:02sure, some of them make it till the
8:04regular trading hours, but very few of
8:06them make it to the after hours session.
8:09And if we go all the way to the right,
8:11if we think about runners that start in
8:13the after hours, then most of them are
8:15still going to peak in the after hours,
8:18but a decent proportion of them are
8:20going to make it till the next day, till
8:22pre-market. And a much smaller, the
8:24smallest amount of them are going to
8:26make it all the way to regular trading
8:28hours the next day. And that's going to
8:30be true for any start time that you
8:33choose. So, if you already understood
8:35this, good for you. I didn't. So, now,
8:37whenever I look at runners, I look at
8:39their start time, and that sort of
8:41starts the clock for me on how long they
8:44might go. Now, remember, about 80% of
8:46runners peak the same day. So, when I
8:49say that on average a run lasts a few
8:51hours,
8:52the peak could be within the first few
8:55minutes of the run, because we're
8:57talking about a distribution of
8:59averages. So, some runners are going to
9:02peak in the first few minutes, and then
9:03just fade, fade, fade. Some runners are
9:06going to peak an hour after their run.
9:09Some hours are going to peak two, three,
9:11four hours after they started their run,
9:13et cetera, right? I'm not saying that
9:15all runners peak four hours after they
9:18started running. That's not what I'm
9:19saying. But what I am saying is that on
9:23average, whenever a runner starts,
9:26most of the time it'll peak within the
9:29next few hours.
9:32So, more than 50% of the times, when a
9:35runner runs a significant amount, it'll
9:38peak within a few hours after it started
9:41running. And so, that's why what the
9:44distribution that you tend to see is
9:46that a runner that started in the
9:48beginning of a session, let's say
9:51pre-market, most of the times, its peak
9:54is going to be in that session. Some of
9:57the times the peak is going to be in the
9:58session right after and a very, very
10:01small percentage of the time the peak
10:02will be in the session after that. And
10:05sessions, when I say sessions, I mean
10:07pre-market, regular trading hours, or
10:09after hours. So, if something started
10:11running at 4:00 a.m., most of the time
10:14it's going to run out of air by the time
10:17pre-market comes. It already peaked in
10:18pre-market. Sometimes it's going to have
10:21enough energy to keep going and put its
10:24highs in the regular trading hours. In a
10:26very, very small amount of time it's
10:28going to have enough action in it to run
10:31in the after hours. It's sort of a
10:33fractal of the statistics above it. So,
10:37remember how 80% of day one runners peak
10:40same day, but some go to the next day.
10:43It's a fractal of that. So, if something
10:45starts running right before the open, it
10:48has a much higher chances of printing
10:50its high of day in the regular trading
10:53hours because it just started its run
10:55recently right before the right before
10:58the switch between the pre-market
10:59session and the regular trading hour
11:01sessions. And the same is true for
11:04runners that started, let's say, 3:00
11:06p.m. They have a much higher chance of
11:08printing their highs in the after hours
11:11because the run just started right
11:13before the switch in the sessions. And
11:15of course, the same is true for after
11:17hours runners. If you have things that
11:19started running in the after hours, then
11:22there is going to be a decent amount of
11:24spillover to the next day to pre-market.
11:26So, stuff that started running in the
11:28after hours still has a higher chance of
11:31mostly peaking in the after hours, but
11:33there will be a substantial amount of
11:35runners that will find themselves
11:37peaking in the pre-market the next day.
11:39And a very, very small minority of them
11:41that will peak in the regular trading
11:43hour. So, that's your baseline. That's
11:45your baseline of how you look at runners
11:48based on the time of day that they
11:50started running. And as far as
11:52anomalies, well, anomalies are when
11:55something is not behaving in the way
11:57that it {quote} "usually does." So, I'm
12:00going to summarize the baseline in a
12:03couple sentences extremely, extremely
12:05simple. Most runners peak in the session
12:09that they started running in, session
12:12meaning pre-market, regular trading
12:14hours, or after hours. About 65%
12:18of runners peak in the session in which
12:21they started running. And then about 25%
12:24of runners peak in the next session, the
12:27session after the session in which they
12:29started. And then the rest, the
12:31remaining 10%, have enough gas in the
12:33tank to keep going for the third session
12:37or even more. Those are the multi-day
12:39runners. Now, these are rough numbers,
12:42but that's the baseline. Runners tend to
12:44peak in the session that they started
12:46in, or if not in that session, then in
12:49the session right after that. If they
12:51started running in pre-market, they're
12:53going to peak in pre or regular trading
12:55hours.
12:56If they started running in regular
12:58trading hours, they're going to peak in
13:00that session or in the after hours. If
13:02they started running in the after hours,
13:04they're going to peak in that session or
13:07in the pre-market the next day. That's
13:08it. Simple, right? Now, nothing in
13:11trading is stand-alone. No trading
13:14wisdom that you will learn is enough on
13:16its own. It's dynamic. So, one of the
13:19concepts that I think it's very
13:21important that you incorporate when
13:23looking at this is the dollar volume.
13:25So, if you remember from past videos, we
13:28spoke about runners and how much they
13:31can run based on the dollar volume that
13:35they have in them. Simply put, the lower
13:38the dollar volume, the less the average
13:41run for runners that run. The more the
13:43dollar volume, the more percentage they
13:46run. Super basic, super simple, obvious.
13:49Sometimes obvious is true. And even
13:52though we're talking about runners by
13:54time of day and when they print their
13:57high of days, meaning to say
14:00how long they can run on the time
14:03horizon, right? Because that's what
14:05we're really looking at here. When
14:08something starts to run and when does it
14:10usually print its high of day? So,
14:12really, how long on the time horizon do
14:15runners run until the time that they
14:17peak? I think it's still very important
14:20to incorporate the dollar volume into
14:22this and say, "Am I looking at something
14:25that's trading a lot of dollar volume, a
14:28little bit, a medium amount?" Cuz we're
14:30talking about averages and percentages.
14:34How long does a runner usually run on
14:36average? Well, okay, sometimes it could
14:39run more or less than its average. And
14:42one of the biggest indicators that could
14:44tell you if it could go over or under is
14:47the dollar volume. If the dollar volume
14:50is low, then you could bet the under on
14:53the amount of time that this thing will
14:55run. Or rather, you know, how fast it's
14:57going to reach its high of day. If the
14:59dollar volume is low, then you can sort
15:01of assume that it might reach its high
15:03of day faster.
15:05And the fade will start sooner. And vice
15:08versa, if you're seeing something that
15:09has a very, very high dollar volume,
15:12then it might take some time before it
15:14reaches its high of day. It has a better
15:17chance of being an outlier to the
15:20statistics. Now, I want to talk a little
15:22bit about the anatomy of a trading day.
15:25And then let's take a look at some
15:26examples of actual runners from the past
15:29week. So, by and large, what causes
15:31small cap runners to run
15:34is either PRs that come out and give it
15:38good news and causes people to buy the
15:40stock, or quite honestly, manipulation,
15:44riggers that come into a stock and say,
15:46"Look, I'm going to run this because I
15:48have some sort of an agenda." Most
15:50times, the agenda for riggers tends to
15:53be tied to dilution. So, there'll be
15:55these liquidity pumps that run stocks
15:58right before they're about to offer.
16:00Between PRs and dilution rigs, I think
16:06that that covers most of the small cap
16:10runners. Now, sure, you have other
16:13causes for stocks to run, but more than
16:16half of the reasons why small cap
16:18runners run a lot start from either a PR
16:21or a rig that's tied to an agenda. And
16:24the reason why I mention that is because
16:26from a time perspective,
16:29most of the PRs happen in the morning.
16:32And some PRs happen right after the
16:34close. And so, that's why you're going
16:37to see a lot of the runners start in the
16:40morning and some of the runners starting
16:43right after the close because the PRs
16:46happen in the morning and typically the
16:50rigs do, too. If somebody's trying to
16:52rig a stock for the day, they might
16:55they're likely going to start it in the
16:57pre-market, in the low liquidity
16:59session.
17:00Now, not always. Again, you have PRs
17:03happen all day. You have rigs starting
17:05all day. But just if we're being honest,
17:07the majority of them do happen in the
17:09times that I mentioned. Now, let's take
17:11a look at some examples just from the
17:13past week. I'm not going to go and
17:15cherry-pick from a whole year and try
17:17and show perfect examples. On the
17:19contrary, I think the value is to look
17:21at an average week and see what it shows
17:24us and how it correlates with the data.
17:27So, let's start running quickly through
17:29a lot of the names that made a move this
17:31past week. Let's note when they started
17:35their run, where the high of day was,
17:38and what happened afterwards. And let's
17:40see if it jives with the data. AGH
17:43started its run in the morning, peaked
17:46in the morning, faded ever since. SOAR,
17:49funny enough, is showing us two examples
17:52at the same time. Here, it started
17:55running in the pre-market, peaked in the
17:57pre-market, and faded. Here, it started
18:00running in the after hours, peaked in
18:02the after hours, and faded ever since.
18:05And so, the takeaway from the research
18:07is true both times in a single stock in
18:10two separate sessions in that the
18:12takeaway from the research is that most
18:14times stocks peak in the session that
18:17they started running in and that the
18:20dollar volume matters. And so, here we
18:22see low dollar volume, low activity on
18:25both of them. And so, the run was not
18:29only in the same session that it
18:31started, but that remember that when I
18:33tried to incorporate the dollar volume
18:36into this equation saying that the lower
18:38the dollar volume, the weaker the pop
18:40probably will be and the less sustained
18:44the pop probably will be. And so, you
18:46see that here exactly. It peaked in the
18:48same session that it ran and the dollar
18:51volume was low, so it was just a pop and
18:54drop. AZI belongs in the middle group,
18:58right? Most stocks peak in the session
19:00that they started running, say 60% or
19:02so, 60-something. And then 20-something
19:05percent peak in the next session. So,
19:07that's what AZI is. AZI started running
19:10in the pre-market, peaked in the regular
19:12trading hours, and then faded. And from
19:15a price action analysis perspective,
19:18from a price action trading perspective,
19:20this was a weak pop because, as you may
19:23know or not know, when we're looking at
19:26pre-market runners that are trading over
19:28their pre-market highs in regular
19:30trading hours, true strength is holding
19:33above the pre-market highs and trending
19:36above the pre-market highs. So, if we
19:38take a look at this, yes, it traded over
19:41the pre-market highs, but if you were
19:44trying to get long this anywhere, it
19:46never really trended over it. It it it
19:49downtrended over it and then then
19:52broke below it. But, it never gave you a
19:55trend over it. So, yes, this kept going
19:57and making new highs in the next session
19:59in the regular trading hours versus the
20:02premarket where it started, but it just
20:04breached that level and then downtrended
20:07ever since. So, that's good to note. I
20:10mentioned that because again, the whole
20:11point of you watching this video is
20:13trying to figure out how to use this
20:15information to build a trading strategy
20:18or refine a trading strategy that you
20:20already have. And so, when you're trying
20:22to figure out how to use this video to
20:24help you trade, there's really a couple
20:27ways that you could do this. You could
20:29say, "Okay, I'm trying to understand
20:31what stocks normally do, and then trade
20:33that." Meaning to say, "I'm trying to
20:35fade stocks in the same session that
20:38they started popping in, or I'm trying
20:40to fade stocks
20:42in the next session, or vice versa.
20:45You're trying to long them. You're
20:47trying to say, "Well, this is the one
20:48that's going to be the outlier." And the
20:52best indicator to when things are
20:55behaving differently is in relation to
20:58the previous session. Meaning to say, if
21:00something started running in a specific
21:02session, let's say premarket, and then
21:04regular trading hours comes, and this
21:07thing is still not breaking down, it's
21:09threatening to take the highs of the
21:12previous session,
21:13as it's doing right here, then that's an
21:16important thing to note because it's
21:18telling you, "Hey, 60-something percent
21:20of the times stocks peak at the session
21:23that they popped, this is not one of
21:25those 60% of the times."
21:28So, it's important to note that, but
21:30it's also important to know that still
21:33the majority of the time this is not
21:36worth to make new highs in the next
21:37session after that because we know
21:3960-something percent of the times a
21:41premarket runner peaks here,
21:4420-something percent of the times it'll
21:45peak in this session, and only 10% of
21:48the times it'll peak in this session.
21:49So, you could be on the hunt for that
21:5110% of the times. You should be on the
21:53hunt if that's the strategy that you
21:55want to go for. But, it's important to
21:57note that if you're trading this on the
21:58long side thinking this is going to be
22:00that one out of 10 that keeps going,
22:03then
22:04this line, the key line between the high
22:08of this session and the break of that
22:10high in the next session, that's really,
22:13really the the line in the sand. So,
22:15it's really, really important for you to
22:17notice how it interacts with this line.
22:21And that's true for the short as well,
22:23right? You might be hunting for longs
22:25for that one in 10 that goes higher, or
22:28you might be on the opposite side. You
22:30might say, "No, this is going to be how
22:32it usually goes where it's not going to
22:33go make new highs in yet another
22:36session." So, this line is important for
22:39you regardless of which side of the
22:40trade you're on, and the general
22:43understanding that stocks don't tend to
22:46last beyond a second session, but
22:49sometimes they do. That's also very
22:51important to know so that you can choose
22:54which strategy you're trading and know
22:57when that strategy is right or wrong. On
23:00BIAF, again the same story, started the
23:03run in the premarket, made its highs.
23:07This was in the mid group that made its
23:09highs after the premarket, and over here
23:12in the break of the premarket highs, you
23:14actually did have a trend. So, if you
23:16traded this long off of the premarket
23:19high reclaim, then you actually did make
23:22some money, but the statistics still
23:24prevailed at the end of the day. So,
23:27from a day trading perspective, if you
23:29traded this long, you got a winner, but
23:31if you were short and you were either
23:34stubborn or patient, depending on your
23:36price average, then you still got let
23:39out at the end of the day. Now,
23:40personally, I suspect that this is one
23:44of those 20% of times where the next day
23:47we might still see highs here. Although,
23:50you know, the stats are against it, but
23:52here's your line. This line will the
23:54behavior that it will have against this
23:57line come Monday will be the clue. ELPW
24:01is another example that shows you the
24:03behavior across different sessions
24:05because
24:06most of these runs are premarket runs.
24:09This is a premarket run that peaked in
24:11premarket. This is a premarket run that
24:13peaked in premarket, but a couple of the
24:15times it shows you an after-hour run
24:17that peaks in after hours, right? So,
24:19here you have ELPW when it ran at 4:00
24:22p.m., and it peaked at 6:30. So, it
24:25peaked in the same session. It
24:27runs in premarket, peaks in premarket.
24:29Runs in after hours, peaks in after
24:31hours. So, you could see that by and
24:33large, they do really act this way most
24:36of the times. Now, let's keep going.
24:38INKT, premarket runner,
24:41premarket high of day. KALA, premarket
24:44runner, premarket high of day. KIDZ,
24:47premarket runner, premarket high of day.
24:49LRIC, premarket runner, premarket high
24:52of day. And the same thing is going to
24:53be true if you take a look at MIMI
24:56or MRNO or NXPL or OLOLX or ORBS or
25:03SCNX.
25:05All of these ran this week. They started
25:08running in the premarket. Most of them
25:10peaked in the premarket with a couple of
25:13them peaking in regular trading hours. I
25:15gave you the names. Feel free to browse
25:17the charts if you're interested. The one
25:19exception is SXTP. That was a premarket
25:22runner, so to speak. Uh it popped at
25:247:00 a.m., gave it all back, came back,
25:28and then once it passed its premarket
25:30highs, it really gave a nice trend into
25:33end of day. And not only that, but the
25:36next day it popped right over the highs
25:40of the previous day and then faded. And
25:42so, I want to use this opportunity to
25:45remind you of what I said in the
25:47beginning of this video or towards the
25:49beginning of the video when I said,
25:51"Look, 80% of the runners peak in the
25:54same day, 20% of the runners go and
25:58visit the high the next day." But,
26:00remember when I told you that just
26:02because 20% of the runners go and
26:04somehow visit the highs the next day,
26:07that doesn't mean there's actual
26:08strength there. It doesn't mean that
26:10it's worth it for you to hold. It
26:12doesn't mean that one in five times if
26:13you hold a runner, you'll get a winner.
26:16No, most of the times I said that these
26:18are sort of weak pops that fade, and
26:22really only a low single-digit
26:24percentage of times, 3%, 5%, they truly,
26:28truly run. Well, SXTP is exactly an
26:32example of what usually happens. This is
26:35what in the 20% of times the runners
26:38actually make a new high the next day,
26:41this is what that new high looks like.
26:43And again, it's important to understand
26:45that I'm not hating on anything. I'm
26:47just showing you the baseline so that
26:51you can know what it usually looks like
26:53so that you could choose to either trade
26:55what usually happens or be on the hunt
26:58for the more rare events and try and
27:00either capitalize on those, trade them
27:03long, or if you're short, know when when
27:05you got to get out. When something is
27:07behaving how it normally does not. But,
27:11moving along to the next sessions, let's
27:13look at regular trading hour runners
27:15this week and where they peaked. AGRZ
27:19was a regular trading hour runner,
27:20started in the morning, and where did it
27:22peak? Technically, it peaked in the next
27:25session, in the after-hour session. So,
27:27remember we said 60-something percent of
27:30the times a runner will peak in the
27:32session in which it started running. So,
27:34this started running really early in the
27:36session. So, it actually lasted all the
27:39way till the end of the session and
27:41technically put in a high in the next
27:44session, which is, you know, pretty
27:46remarkable, honestly. But, nevertheless,
27:48this still shows you the example of what
27:50happens most of the times. Technically,
27:52most of the times they peak in the same
27:54session in which they ran, but if they
27:57peak in the next session, that to me
27:59still represents part of the 90% cuz 90%
28:03of the times it's going to peak either
28:04in its session or the next session. And
28:07so, that's what we got. This is 90% of
28:09the times. DTCK was a regular trading
28:12hours, and it peaked in regular trading
28:14hours. GSIW, as crazy of a runner as
28:18this was, arguably for some of us an
28:20untradable vehicle, and that's fine, but
28:23nevertheless, you still see the same
28:25behavior. Regular trading hour runner
28:28in
28:30technically an after-hour peaker. So, it
28:32lasted into the next session after it
28:35just barely. GSUN, regular trading hour
28:38runner, regular trading hour high of
28:41day. MDCX, regular trading hour runner,
28:44regular trading hour peak. Now, this one
28:46if we if we take a look into the next
28:48day, then in the premarket the next day
28:50it actually popped, but still it did not
28:53make it past the high of day the day
28:55before. OCG, same thing. TLPS, same
28:59thing. Now, let's cover the last
29:01session. Again, just looking at runners
29:02from this week, so not cherry-picking
29:04anything. But, now let's take a look at
29:06after-hours runners. So, CXAI started
29:09moving late into the after hour. So, it
29:11kind of makes sense that it made its
29:13high in the next session, which it did.
29:15ISPC, from just this past Friday,
29:18started running right after the bell at
29:204:00 p.m., and then made its high the
29:23next session in the premarket. It had
29:25just enough gas in the tank to just
29:27barely pass by the high of day from the
29:30from the previous session. JOB, started
29:33running at 4:00 p.m., peaked in that
29:35same session. WORKS, sort of did it
29:38twice in a week. Ran at 4:00 p.m. if you
29:41can call this a run, and gave it back in
29:44the same session. And here, it ran again
29:47at 4:00 p.m., but it had enough gas in
29:49the tank to last till the next session,
29:52till the pre-market the next day, and
29:54just barely peeked over it. CDXS was
29:58slightly anomalous in that it started
30:01running at 4:00 p.m. and technically it
30:03peeked in that same session except no,
30:06no, came back the next day and printed
30:09its peak in the regular trading hours.
30:11So, after hours runner that didn't peak
30:14in the after hours, didn't peak in the
30:15pre-market, but technically peeked in
30:17the regular trading hours. So, the high
30:19of day happened not in its session, not
30:21in the next session, but in the session
30:24after that. More rare. What about the
30:26anomalies for the past week? The ones
30:28that didn't fit the mold of what I say
30:31usually happen. Well, every single one
30:34of those anomalies was either a
30:36multi-day runner or a stock trying to be
30:40a multi-day runner. Those do happen and
30:43it's important that you pay attention to
30:44that. And the lines are always the same
30:47lines. It's like, okay, well, what was
30:48the major important line that now it's
30:52reclaimed? And is it trending or basing
30:55over that line or down-trending and
30:57barely keeping that line? So, on EONR we
31:00could see one that is clearly holding
31:02and on LGVN we can see one that's
31:06trying to become a multi-day runner and
31:09you can use the same lines to help guide
31:12you on whether this is going to become
31:15an anomaly to the rule, an exception to
31:17the rule,
31:18or if it's going to behave like most of
31:20them. Looking at more exceptions to the
31:22rules from this week, on ACXP let's draw
31:26some lines. You had an after hours run,
31:28which if you assume that what I said in
31:31this video is true, that most of the
31:33times these will peak either in the
31:35after hour or in the next session with a
31:38very, very small minority of the time
31:40where they may reach the session after
31:42that, right? So, after hours
31:45quote-unquote should have peaked in the
31:48after hours sessions or in the session
31:50after that, the pre-market right here,
31:52but in regular trading hours it just
31:55peeked over, which could still tell you,
31:58okay, the last hurrah, statistically
32:01speaking. It's likely that this was the
32:03last hurrah except that in the session
32:06after that, now we're sliding into the
32:08fourth session, right? After hours one
32:11session, pre-market second session,
32:13regular trading hours the third session.
32:16The next after hours is now the fourth
32:18session.
32:19Now, we have a breach of this key
32:23and trading over that and really never
32:26looking back from there. So, it's as
32:29important to know what usually happens
32:31as it is important to know what
32:34sometimes, but not usually happens. It's
32:36important to know both sides of the
32:38coin. They're connected. Same thing on
32:41ATPC.
32:43ATPC, let's draw two lines here because
32:46this was a pre-market runner that slid
32:49into the regular trading hours. And so,
32:51the first line that you would have drawn
32:53was the high of pre-market and the next
32:55line you would have drawn was the high
32:57of the regular trading hours. And you
32:59could say, oh look, pre-market runner
33:01that peeked in the regular trading
33:03hours. So far, so good. Normal behavior,
33:06right? And by and large, if you were day
33:08trading this or whatever, then you'd be
33:10right. But however, a couple days later
33:13in the pre-market we got a breach of
33:14that level and just using those two
33:18lines you could still see how relevant
33:20those two lines were. Now, I don't want
33:22to make this video too long. There's no
33:24need to make this video long because the
33:27takeaway from this video is as simple
33:29and short. The takeaway is that 80% of
33:33runners are a one-day wonder. And even
33:36if you break that down into sessions,
33:39most runners peak either in the session
33:41that they ran most of the time or to
33:43still a significant amount of time the
33:45very next session after that, but by and
33:48large that's about it. However, some of
33:51the times they do slide into running
33:54beyond that, those are the multi-day
33:56runners. They're rare, but they do
33:59happen regularly because, like I said,
34:02we do get thousands of these runners a
34:04year. So, even 5% of thousands is still
34:09a hundred or a couple of hundreds at
34:11times a year. It's substantial. So,
34:14that's really the simple thing I'm
34:15trying to talk about and show in this
34:17video and I want to remind you again, no
34:20single wisdom or trick is enough for you
34:23to trade with. As I told you in the
34:25beginning of this video, it's important
34:27for you to at the very least overlay
34:30this with dollar volume to give you a
34:33better chance to make a more accurate
34:35read because we're making these reads in
34:37real time, not after the fact. And of
34:40course, you need to know everything
34:41else. Is there a PR? Isn't there a PR?
34:44Are we in a hot cycle? Are we in a weak
34:47cycle? What is the float of this thing?
34:49Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So, you
34:51can use this as a general guide to what
34:54things normally do, but of course, I'm
34:57sure you understand that just because
34:59things normally do something doesn't
35:01mean they do them all the time. This is
35:03just another video in which I try to
35:05illuminate another small part of the of
35:09small caps behavior and hopefully I'll
35:12make a lot of these videos and together
35:15all of these videos could be some sort
35:18of a map by which you read the behavior
35:21of small caps. Thank you for listening.
35:24I hope this video helped in some way. As
35:26a reminder, we have a Discord room that
35:28you're very welcome to come and join.
35:30I'll see you in the next video. Peace.
35:34>> [music]

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Small Cap Runners by Time of Day: When They Start vs When They Peak by Small Caps Trading Podcast, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 6,108 words across 856 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.