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SHARP NFL Week 2 Bets - Vikings-Bears, Packers-Jets, Colts-Chiefs, Eagles-Titans, Steelers-Patriots — Transcript

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0:00[music] Welcome to Sharper Square
0:03presented by Poly Market. We are part of
0:06the volume podcast network. This is the
0:08show that makes the squares sharper and
0:10makes the wise guys pay attention. I am
0:12Chad Milman. I am joined as always by my
0:16co-host, my companion, my compadre
0:19professional better Simon Hunter. Hello
0:23Simon
0:25>> Chad. How we doing? my brother, my man.
0:30It's our Tuesday. It's our our Thursday
0:33NFL week 2 show. We got a lot to get
0:36into. We're going to get into sharp
0:38calls. We're going to get into our brass
0:41balls bet of the week. We got some
0:45underdog and favorite round robins,
0:49your biggest bets, sharp versus square,
0:52our Discord grouper of the week.
0:55Join the Discord by going to
0:57readthenumber.com.
0:59We're voting every week on Beth's I
1:02should make.
1:04Whatever we win, plus a floor of five
1:07grand is going to St. Jude Children's
1:10Research Hospital. It's been a blast.
1:13Joined the convo.
1:15Go to readthenumber.com.
1:18Pre-order the book. You'll get an invite
1:19to join the Discord. All right, we're
1:22going to narrow down our final five
1:24picks for the week. They will go into
1:27the Sharper Square $25,000 Pro Football
1:30Pick them contest. People are signing
1:32up. That's right. The pick them contest
1:35is open ready for your week 2 picks. As
1:38announced on Tuesday, we're running our
1:41totally free NFL contest for the fourth
1:44consecutive season. Prize pool is 25
1:47grand in cash. Contest kicks off this
1:49Sunday. Sign up sharp or
1:52square.thevolume.com.
1:55You're going to compete against me and
1:58Simon all season long. Top 10 finishers
2:02gets gets paid. First place gets 10
2:05grand. It's totally free. If you have
2:07any questions about the contest, check
2:09out the 8inut bonus episode we released
2:12yesterday.
2:13Should answer all your questions. You do
2:16get to drop your worst score the first
2:19five weeks the contest is live. So if
2:23you miss a week or two, you're going to
2:26be okay. [clears throat] We're going to
2:27let people keep signing up. All right,
2:29Simon.
2:31Every week we discuss our picks on the
2:32show on Tuesday and by Thursday you've
2:34gotten an earful from your professional
2:37fellow professionals about what they
2:38like, what they hate. Why didn't Simon
2:41agree with me? Was he mean to me? How
2:43will they bully him? We got bullied last
2:46week on the Texans. It's time for sharp
2:50calls.
2:51>> Who's there? I'm talking
2:53>> ring [music and singing]
2:54telephone ring. Somebody saying, "Baby,
2:57what you doing?"
3:01>> A week of a lot of opinions of people.
3:03What do you believe in week one and
3:05teams you believed in coming into the
3:06season?
3:07>> And a lot of guys are dug in on teams
3:09they believed in coming to the season.
3:11So it is it is interest talking to a lot
3:12of different betting groups and guys who
3:14you know this is their job is having
3:16very strong opinions and backing up a
3:18very large amounts of money. So um a a
3:22game we really weren't high on that I
3:24think people are going to come see my
3:25side of it is last week I remember I
3:28think it was Sunday morning you asked me
3:29for we were talking about favorites we
3:31liked and I gave you the Chiefs or
3:33Minnesota. you end up picking Minnesota
3:35and the Chiefs one was a late ad like we
3:37hadn't talked much about it coming to
3:38the week
3:39>> that really was a group I respected that
3:41was like okay I I can see where they're
3:43coming from I maybe I am underrating too
3:46much of this Chief's team and this
3:48defense because that was really the
3:50pitch was Spags against Bo Knicks in
3:52this matchup now they were right by a
3:54thousand I did not see that game coming
3:56in the way it came that same group I
3:58highly respect is very heavy into the
4:00Colts this week so this is a group where
4:03I already like the Colts
4:04I mean, we're going to get into it.
4:05There's a tons of tons of trends and
4:07tons of matchups you like for the Colts.
4:09>> The fact that this these guys who I feel
4:10like have really nailed this Chief's
4:13team are so heavy on this Colts team,
4:15it's like, okay, even if I was a little,
4:17you know, a little hesitant about
4:19backing Daniel Jones and this Achilles,
4:21it's really about the spot and the
4:23number. And I I was like, okay, I need
4:24to stop overthinking that. So, that was
4:26probably the immediate call I got as
4:28soon as the show ended was like, you
4:29guys were way too quick on the Colts and
4:31Chiefs game. you kept it moving way too
4:32quick on that one. I was like, "Okay,
4:34this is clearly clearly a position I
4:36need to be taking." Um, tonight's game,
4:39and then we'll talk a little bit more
4:40about it. A lot of pros I know are on
4:41the under. Uh, the total in this Detroit
4:44Lions game is up to 54 and a half. Not
4:47surprising. I mean, I'll go through the
4:48numbers and trends on that one as well.
4:49That jumped out to me. Uh, games we
4:51talked about that the pros love. Jets, I
4:54mean, the shock, not shocking anyone to
4:57listen to the Sunday Night Show. That
4:58was five and a half. It's now down to
5:00three and a half and now it's up to
5:01minus 115 minus 113 a lot of books. So I
5:06mean it's it looks like it's the pros
5:07and the Joe's banging on this Jets team
5:10here. So that's a very interesting line
5:12now that Green Bay might be down to
5:13three by kickoff come Sunday. Uh
5:16Minnesota, another game we talked about.
5:19I was hoping we can just avoid that one.
5:20Honestly, I'm just so hurt still the
5:23Bears game last week. Not surprising
5:25here. The pros just love the Vikings
5:26here and the fact that it's it's a big
5:28spread in a divisional game and we talk
5:30all the time about that. It's like, you
5:32know, you could have the greatest
5:33offense ever. Divisional games are just
5:35weird. And we've seen that all time and
5:36time again where teams just play teams
5:38differently, play teams close. And um a
5:41lot of guys though talk about that stat
5:42you gave out, Chad, that Ben Johnson his
5:44career is five and one against uh you
5:47know, Brian Flores defenses whether it
5:49be a coordinator or as a head coach,
5:51which is pretty impressive. Uh, another
5:54game that me and you talked about, I
5:56think you love more than I do because we
5:57don't know who the quarterback is. A lot
5:59of guys love in Atlanta with you, Chad.
6:01That's another pro team, pro spot. Um,
6:05>> that's one of those you truly are
6:06betting a number because you don't, we
6:07are here on Thursday morning. No one
6:08knows who the quarterback is. It's like
6:10I don't like putting
6:12>> more than five figures into a team. I
6:13don't know who the quarterback is. So
6:15hopefully by the time people hear this,
6:17we'll know
6:18>> who is back healthy. if it is Jack or if
6:20it is Cooper Rush once again. So, um, a
6:23lot of unknowns in that one.
6:25Surprisingly,
6:27more I think a lot of our fans thought
6:29it would be a real pro side in Denver.
6:31The pros actually love the Jaguars. A
6:33lot of the pros I've talked to really
6:35like the Jaguars in that game, which we
6:37are on the other side of that one. We're
6:38with the public there on Denver. And,
6:41uh, two more quick ones. Arizona, we'll
6:44we'll dive more into that. Got a lot of
6:45calls. A lot of pros love Arizona. and
6:47Washington. A game where I I I love it
6:51and the more I dive into it, I think
6:53it's it's fair to say that um this this
6:56number is so much respected Dak what
6:58he's done in the past against NFC East,
7:00it's it's not because of that defense.
7:02They're up to four and a half. So, uh
7:04that was an interesting one where I know
7:05some some groups are on the Cowboys, but
7:07for the most part, it's for Washington.
7:08So, yeah, a lot of lot of love for the
7:10dogs and I I've been asking people like,
7:13do you love any of these favorites? And
7:15I feel like most pros I talked to,
7:16everyone liked Houston and now you have
7:19potential Joe Burrow Joe Burrow injury
7:21on top of that. It's been weird though.
7:23The number hasn't really fluctuated. It
7:24stayed at two and a half threes. So, um,
7:26that's another game I've been following
7:28really closely, getting a lot of calls
7:29about.
7:30>> I'm glad the Jags came up. I I I want to
7:32add that to the conversation
7:35towards the end of the show. I've been
7:38wishy-washy on it the whole time. Like I
7:40I I
7:41I'm such a huge Liam Con fan.
7:45It's It's hard for me to bet on the
7:48bounceback for the Broncos against Liam
7:50Con, but we'll see. We we'll have the
7:52conversation. Uh our pal Stucky from
7:54over at the Action Network uh had a
7:56great stat. Short week two underdogs off
8:01of a loss. So underdogs catching 6 and a
8:05half or less. 47 29 and three since
8:092003. The last 10 years they've covered
8:1328
8:14of 40 games. So we got a lot of spots
8:18like that this week. Um including you
8:21mentioned the Colts. So we'll we'll dig
8:23into that.
8:25First off, Green Bay at the Jets. Look,
8:28it's been holding steady at three and a
8:30half.
8:31The more research I've done this week
8:33and the more I've read and heard about
8:35how impressed the quote unquote experts
8:39were with the Jets, especially their
8:42pass rush. And the pass rush is what
8:45gave the Packers fits against the
8:48Vikings.
8:50I just worry we've reached peak jets and
8:53that the Packers have so much more to
8:55lose in this game. And it's getting to a
8:59number where, you know, especially on
9:02the road, you're essentially saying
9:05neutral field, like what are we talking
9:08about here? So, are the Jets competitive
9:11with the Packers? Like, are we having
9:13that conversation?
9:16>> Yeah, I the only hesitation for me is
9:19just be is public sediment is what I
9:20agree with you on is just that it's
9:23there is no one that doesn't like the
9:24Jets, especially here at this number.
9:26So, that's that's the fear. It's like
9:29the books aren't here to give away
9:31money, but it feels like they are in
9:32this matchup. I just I still don't
9:34understand why this number is above
9:35three. The Packers are so bad. They have
9:39so many weaknesses. On the flip side,
9:41you know, the Jets, they're not a world
9:43beaters, right? They beat a really bad
9:44Tennessee team, but they did the exact
9:46way you want to see a team do it. They
9:48were great in the run game, great in the
9:50pass game. The offensive line did really
9:51well. Their defensive line did really
9:53well. It's like these are things you're
9:55looking for, especially when you're
9:56talking about a Packers team that we've
9:58talked about. They don't have a good D
9:59line. They don't have a good offensive
10:01line. Um, you know, the fear is what
10:04we've talked about. It's like most
10:06bookmakers I talk to, it's 80% of the
10:08bets, 80% of the money right now is on
10:09the Jets. It's just all Jets money. And,
10:12um, the Packers, I think the public has
10:16just burned out on them, especially
10:17since last season. Uh, you just dive
10:19through all the numbers. Packers three
10:21and 10 against the spread on the road as
10:23a favorite of three points or more. So
10:25they've just been absolutely terrible
10:26the last five seasons in this exact
10:28spot. They just do not cover on the road
10:30as a favorite above three. And you could
10:32say that's a little floor stat. I would
10:34have to agree with you. It's like a guy
10:36that in our minds he's a covering
10:38machine. He's done really well because
10:39you go through all the numbers and he
10:40does have great bounceback spots. this
10:43exact scenario as a big favorite on the
10:45road tends to struggle which I just
10:48thought was really interesting because
10:49it's like okay I didn't really think
10:50about that as a team that would struggle
10:52and then our guy Evan Ammers had an
10:54amazing stat Green Bay is off a loss and
10:58obviously New York is off a win so the
11:01Packers are the eighth team in the last
11:0220 years to be in this exact spot
11:04they're off a loss now on the road it's
11:06a favorite against a team that just came
11:09off a win those previous seven. Those
11:13teams all covered and won outright,
11:15which is what Green Bay would be doing.
11:17And they all covered those games by 10
11:19points per game. So, statistically,
11:23the books are telling you this is a good
11:25money maker for them. That's what I am
11:27just a little weary of it. It's like
11:29we're with the public right now, walking
11:30right into it, loving this Jets team and
11:32all the cool. So, I'm still on the Jets.
11:35I haven't bought out of my position or
11:36anything like that obviously, but this
11:38is a game maybe we can avoid hopefully
11:40Sunday morning because that that stash
11:42is damning where it's basically telling
11:44us we're walking right into it. The
11:46previous eight times this has happened.
11:48Seven seven in a row the team has
11:50covered and won outright in this exact
11:51spot. So, not not the statistic I wanted
11:54to see as a as someone that wanted to
11:55invest heavily into the Jets this week.
11:57>> These words are going to come back to
11:59bite me when we're in the throws of it
12:02on Sunday morning.
12:04I want nothing to do with the Jets here.
12:07I I just feel like last week I got all
12:10the Jets I needed. It was the exact
12:12right spot. And I feel like what you
12:15just said, the fact that that they're
12:17such public dogs
12:20is is is
12:23warding me off this bet and warding me
12:25off this team in a moment where it
12:27really is a desperation game, I think,
12:29already for the Packers. Like I think
12:31that locker room is down. I think the
12:33fan base is frustrated. I think there's
12:35a pattern developing with Lefor and this
12:37team not being able to hold on to double
12:39digit leads. This team needs to win. As
12:42bad as their offensive line is, as bad
12:44as their defensive line is, the team
12:46needs to win and needs to be impressive.
12:48I want nothing to do with the Jets.
12:50We're out. Carolina and Atlanta, though,
12:54I like that the wise guys are are on my
12:56side here in the sharp calls. Listen,
12:58the Discord was lighting up on Wednesday
13:00afternoon. This is why I love the
13:02Discord because someone hears something,
13:04they're throwing it in there. After
13:06Kevin Ste uh Kevin Stfansky declined to
13:09name a starting QB,
13:13people started wondering, is it time for
13:15the Jack Strand era to begin? And for
13:18those who don't remember, Strand was the
13:20undrafted rookie from Minnesota State
13:23who was a preseason darling for the
13:25Falcons. And like I was hoping the line
13:28would move a little bit when this news
13:30came out and Stfansky made that
13:32statement. It has not budged off a two
13:35and a half. And this was Chad's choice.
13:37I honestly haven't bet it because I just
13:38keep waiting and forget to to get to
13:40three. Um,
13:43but I like that the wise guys are lining
13:45up behind it as well.
13:48>> I get it. But I just it's such a game
13:51where I know why we're betting it. It's
13:53a game where we're going to bet no
13:54matter what, but it's like I don't know
13:57what people could confidently put money
13:59into this game. We don't know who the
14:00quarterback is. That's what's really
14:01giving me pause here. It's like I I
14:03understand where you're coming from,
14:03especially on Tuesday's show. And I know
14:06why guys like this spot and this number
14:07so much. It's I mean, if you just fade
14:10Carolina in this exact spot, it's been
14:12incredibly profitable. Like Bryce Young
14:14just has not performed well as a
14:16favorite. Now, I know some people threw
14:17me those stats from last year where it's
14:19like, what were they? Nine and0 against
14:21the spread after a loss. Last year was
14:23the wonkiest year ever. We literally
14:24rode that all season of betting them
14:26then fading them, betting them then
14:27fading them and it literally worked out.
14:29Like that's just insane. I don't think
14:31it's going to happen backtoback seasons.
14:33It's never happened before in NFL
14:35history. That's just there's no there's
14:37no rhythm to football that way. So, I
14:39understand why people are like hesitant
14:40because of last year's trends and
14:42statistics, but it really is a new year
14:44and you try to go when you're trying to
14:45do trends, you want longer than one year
14:47of data, right? We talk all the time
14:49about that. But the longer [snorts] you
14:50can stretch it out, the more it actually
14:52means something and actually matters
14:53rather than just going off one year. So,
14:56um, matchup wise, you know, everyone's
14:59going to hope for Jack Strand because
15:01the best quarterback in the world is the
15:02one you haven't seen and you know
15:03nothing about. That's people's favorite
15:05quarterback
15:06>> were I more of I know he looked horrible
15:09Cooper Rush and he played a terrible
15:10game. I mean think he was statistically
15:12the worst quarterback like it was either
15:14him or Stafford or statistically were
15:15the worst quarterback in week one but
15:18you would hope he got the jitters out
15:20where this kid Jack has not. This would
15:23be his first start of his career at home
15:25here. So you know Cooper Rush as much as
15:28you want to give him crap he is the
15:29veteran. He's been there before and
15:31maybe talent-wise he's not as good as
15:32this kid Jack, but I know he's not going
15:35to be making tons and tons of stupid
15:36rookie mistakes. Like, he's just been
15:38around the league a long time. So, I'm a
15:39little torn here. I I really am where
15:41it's like I want to bet this one, but
15:42I'm like you where if it is Jack, could
15:45we get the three? Could we get the three
15:46and a half? Because originally this line
15:48was minus one and a half on the Falcons.
15:50>> Yeah.
15:51>> So, the fact that it's already moved
15:53three points and you could say that's
15:54because of Tua, that's probably true,
15:56but it could keep moving. That's why I'm
15:58I'm with you here. It's like be patient
16:01if you want to bet this one, but I think
16:03we're getting to the point here of uh
16:05there's a lot of dogs we like this week.
16:07It's going to be tough if we don't know
16:08who the quarterback is to really put the
16:10Falcons in our contest, honestly.
16:12>> Yeah. Uh the other thing to think about
16:14with Cooper Rush, and we talked about
16:16this with the Steelers,
16:18they've got some incredible pass rushers
16:21on that team, and that's what you were
16:24seeing against the Falcons.
16:27The Panthers,
16:29no one would expect them to be as bad as
16:31they were against the Bears, but they're
16:33still not a very good defense. And so
16:35Cooper Rush in all likelihood will look
16:38better against the Panthers than he did
16:41against the Steelers.
16:43I think what you just said about the
16:45best quarterback in the world is the one
16:47you haven't seen.
16:49Jack Strand might might be all pro after
16:53Sunday. And if we can just catch that
16:57fallen knife with Jack Strand at plus
16:59three,
17:00I think we'd be heroes. We can be
17:03heroes. Philadelphia,
17:06sevenpoint favorite at the Tennessee
17:08Titans. One of a handful of seven plus
17:10point favorites on the board. A road
17:13favorite at that. I know you do not want
17:18to bet a Titans game. I'm the other side
17:21here. I think this team is so lost that
17:24I can't help but bet against them. We
17:27have no evidence at this point that Cam
17:30Ward has made progress.
17:33And that Jets defense, we were impressed
17:36with what they did as a pass rush. What
17:39is Jaylen Carter going to do against
17:41this Tennessee team? What is that entire
17:44Eagles defense going to do against this
17:46Tennessee Titans offensive line and
17:49against Cam Ward who just continues to
17:51struggle? Like we, you know, before the
17:53season began, we were talking about the
17:54Titans and so many of the sacks that Cam
17:59Ward suffers from are quarterback
18:01induced. I mean, this team, they are
18:04going against the worst possible team to
18:07try to recover after a week one
18:09devastating loss.
18:11But I know it's going to be hard to get
18:12you there. I know I know it's going to
18:15be hard to get you into the contest. I
18:17think the Eagles will be in our
18:19favorites parlay. We will hear more
18:21about the Eagles when it comes towards
18:23the Discord grouper later in the show.
18:26Uh in the contest, it's seven on the
18:29boards, but in the contest because you
18:30got to play half point lines. Simon,
18:33it's six and a half.
18:36>> Yeah. And it's I've had a couple people
18:38ask my I think they're new to the show.
18:40They're asking me if this is a home or
18:41pick. The fact that I'm trying to back
18:43convince people backtoback weeks the
18:44Eagles are going to win. And I just joke
18:47that especially fans that are new to the
18:49show. I am a Dire Eagles fan. It's all
18:52about the money here. I literally do not
18:54care about the Eagles at all. One of my
18:56favorite runs me and Chad ever had was
18:57we faded the Eagles for 10 straight
18:59weeks. I think it was in 2023 or 2022
19:01where we just knew they were terrible.
19:03The model knew they were terrible. We
19:05fade them all away. I faded against I
19:06faded the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Like
19:08I just I don't want people thinking that
19:11because I'm an Eagles fan. That ever
19:12affects my opinion. Like I always tell
19:15people if you want people think I hate
19:16their team. If you want to hear someone
19:18talk lovingly and sweet about your team,
19:19if you're a, you know, Browns fan, if
19:22you're a fan of Miami Dolphins, Kay
19:24Adams does a show every day and she will
19:26tell you, "You have the best team in the
19:28entire world." I will never be that guy.
19:30I will literally come in here, even if
19:31you're a good team, I will tell you what
19:32their weaknesses are, what they suck,
19:34all that stuff. It's just no team do I
19:38dislike. There's no team that I like.
19:39Honestly, it's I'm all about the money
19:42here. That's all that matters to me,
19:43honestly. And it's just I hear people
19:45have these opinions where it's like dude
19:47I would never come here tell people take
19:49the Eagles because I'm a fan of this
19:51team and um you know trends that jumped
19:54out right away to me in this matchup or
19:56the Titans because I knew there were
19:57going to be some good ones. The Titans
19:58have been bad now for so long. They've
20:00been I mean it's fair to say they've
20:01been one of the worst run franchises
20:03since Frael got them the one seed and
20:05they decided to trust their GM trade
20:08away AJ get rid of their head coach and
20:10Rael and it's just all been a train
20:12wreck ever since then this was an
20:14amazing stat from Evan the Titans are 0
20:16and9 against the spread before they hit
20:19the road the last three seasons like
20:22they just are a terrible terribly
20:24coached team that just shows me how
20:27poorly coached they are on the flip side
20:28this Eagles team after playing an NFC
20:30East opponent over the last three years,
20:32they're 11-2 against the spread. So,
20:35this is a team that for whatever reason,
20:38right,
20:39some teams after a divisional game,
20:41they're worn out. The Eagles bounce back
20:42even stronger. So, at 6 and a half,
20:45Chad, no, I can be I can be talked into
20:47that in the contest. Like Tennessee is a
20:48team that I'm just low on. If you're
20:50looking for things to fade on this
20:52Eagles team, you would say, "Well,
20:54Jeffrey Simmons, who's already running
20:55his mouth this week about, you know,
20:57>> he's going up against a firsttime
20:59starter in the interior line."
21:01>> Okay, Eagles will just dumb. Like,
21:03whatever side he's on, Cam will shade
21:05that side with the guard. So, you know,
21:08Simmons is a game record. He didn't
21:10touch Gino Smith, who's a statue once
21:12last week. It's like, okay, he might
21:14bounce back here, but anyone but
21:16Dickerson, I gave you that stat last
21:18week. Dixon was the fourth worst
21:19offensive lineman in all the league last
21:21week. So, just the fact that they're
21:22taking him out, it's going to be such an
21:24upgrade for this Eagles team. And as
21:26much as I don't want to say it's they
21:28viewing last week as a loss, people are
21:30talking with an organization, they do
21:31that. The Eagles felt embarrassed last
21:33week that game was as close as it was.
21:35They felt embarrassed the way that
21:37defense played the Eagles. Like that
21:39game was in total control and they let
21:40it slip away in many ways. So, I I I
21:43think it's a bad spot honestly for
21:44Tennessee. And um we talk all the time
21:47about the money and the public money. I
21:49think it's 95% of the money right now is
21:51on the Eagles. So it's
21:53>> it's going to be like this every week
21:55this Titans team. That's the same week.
21:56Same thing happened last week with the
21:58Jets. It was 90% of the money were on
21:59the Jets. So it's just I I know people
22:02look into those money trends. It's going
22:03to be like this for the Titans all year.
22:04Titans, they will eventually find a
22:07watermark. They will the books will find
22:09a line to give them, but we saw last
22:11year it took them like 10 weeks to
22:13figure out this Titans team. I think
22:14it's the same thing here. I just feel
22:15like they're overpriced. It's like
22:17>> Yeah. Well, I also
22:19>> than it is to seven. So, six and a half
22:20to me is great value.
22:22>> Well, that's what I was going to say. I
22:23feel like we're getting a little bit of
22:26value because of the reaction to how the
22:29Eagles played last week and the
22:31struggles they had and the conversation
22:33and the narrative around it's another
22:34new offensive coordinator and Saquon
22:36wasn't amazing and their offensive line
22:39struggled. But if this was really based
22:43on the roster and what we think the
22:45talent level is, this is three points of
22:48value. So I bet the Eagles at minus 7,
22:51full stop. Um I love the idea of
22:54potentially getting him into the contest
22:56at 6 and a half cuz because you're
22:57right, we love a lot of dogs this week
23:00and so trying to find a favorite that we
23:03can fit in because we know there's going
23:05to be a favorite that does their job. I
23:07don't mind that at all. Simon,
23:10it's time for
23:12our
23:14brass balls
23:16trade of the week presented by Poly
23:21Market. You know what it takes? It takes
23:24brass balls.
23:28We are going with you mentioned it in
23:32sharp calls.
23:34The Indianapolis Colts
23:38trading at 6 and a half on poly market
23:43bounceback spot. We barely touched this
23:45game on Tuesday.
23:48Sharp calls, big conversation. The first
23:51one you got. Explain in a little more
23:53depth what you're hearing about this
23:55game. teams coming off bad loss,
23:57underrated by the public, now playing
24:00potentially a team that came off a big
24:01win, which I know Washington obviously
24:03they're playing the Cowboys who looked
24:04terrible, but this this Colts team
24:06couldn't be facing a Chiefs team that's
24:08just at higher higher opinion on the
24:10general public. I mean, shout out to our
24:12guy who we love, Nick Wright, who's just
24:13hilarious this week.
24:14>> He is doing you you would think they
24:16just won a playoff game, the Chiefs.
24:18He's doing the ultimate victory tour
24:20because people did leave Mahomes and the
24:21Chiefs left for dead. And you know, you
24:24can bash Mahomes and say, "Well, he
24:26didn't even complete. He didn't have a
24:27completion over 10 yards." Like, are we
24:30still doing that in this day and age?
24:31Like, it doesn't matter if you can push
24:34up enough. Teams are going to run a
24:36cover two on you and you have to dink
24:37and dunk. It's hard. It's hard not to
24:40make a mistake. And the fact that now he
24:41has a run game that can counter that
24:43cover two. And you saw what happened. I
24:44mean, they're trying to drop two
24:45safeties against him. Kenneth Walker is
24:47picking up seven yards a carry. and you
24:50know, he's breaking that first tackle,
24:51which if a if a running back can break
24:53the first tackle against a cover two
24:55defense, he's always going to pick up
24:57seven or eight yards. Like, there's just
24:59always going to be huge gaps and holes.
25:00So, I'm excited to see if the Colts can
25:02make the adjustments because they just
25:03got embarrassed. And that's those are
25:05teams I love to back or just teams that
25:07are early in the year. We know they have
25:09a talent level like that Dline for the
25:12Colts. They're not as bad as they look.
25:14Lamar does that to you. Eric Henry does
25:16that to you. the fact that they're going
25:17against now potentially an undrafted
25:21rookie tackle. You know, they got the
25:24Chiefs got away the last week against
25:25Denver. You really look at the numbers,
25:27Mahomes was under pressure constantly.
25:30That's why he also struggled in that
25:31game. He always had a guy in his face
25:33because the Chiefs don't have the best
25:34offensive line. That's why they did lean
25:36into the run. That's why they needed to
25:38lean into the run. It's like if you if
25:39you don't have a great offensive line,
25:40you want to get your guys comfortable,
25:42have them throw people around, have them
25:43move bodies. And that's exactly what the
25:45Chiefs did last week. So, this number
25:48probably getting free two points based
25:50off last week, honestly. And this Colts
25:52team, I just keep saying I don't think
25:54they're as bad as people perceive,
25:55especially Daniel Jones in this offense.
25:57And um just feels like the type of game
25:59where we've seen the past where Mahomes
26:01every now and then he does have those
26:02blowout wins. Historically, Mahomes just
26:05plays close games. And you've saw that
26:07in that the fact that their offense as
26:09great as Kenth Locker looked, Rasheed
26:11Weiss, Rasheed Rice had the worst
26:13separation of any wide receiver in all
26:14football last week. Like that's not a
26:17madeup number. You can look at the data.
26:18It's it's really alarming how bad a
26:21separation is. Same with Worthy. No
26:23separation. Now you're relying on Kelsey
26:24who's 36 35 years old as your number one
26:27receiving option. So there's just a lot
26:29of things here for the Colts to bounce
26:31back to. And the fact that this number
26:32is so ballooned up, I just I can't help
26:34but take this one, especially on it's
26:35going to be a Sunday night. So, um,
26:38yeah, this is a a game obviously I got a
26:40really respected group back in this
26:42Colts team. Got a earful about it on
26:44sharp calls and it's one where it's
26:45like, okay, I see the light. I'm I'm not
26:48going to overreact too much to Jones's
26:50injury. And the fact that you can trade
26:52this right now market at plus six and a
26:54half at a decent value, I I'm going to
26:56take that every time.
26:58>> Yeah, it's trading at 50% on polymer
27:00market. That is going to be our brass
27:02balls
27:04trade of the week presented by Py
27:07Market. If we're going to start playing
27:09the P the Chiefs as we always have,
27:14then we fade Patrick Mahomes when he's a
27:16favorite of three or more points because
27:19historically
27:20everything with Patrick Mahomes gets
27:23inflated and we're seeing that with
27:26this. So, it just makes sense. If we
27:28believe in in the Chiefs, then we're
27:30going to have to fade the Chiefs when
27:31the numbers get inflated and unusually
27:34high. Indianapolis Colts 6 and a half
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28:55right? So, you talked a little bit about
28:58uh Houston in the sharp calls are two
29:01and a half point favorites over
29:02Cincinnati right now. Uh it's been
29:04bouncing between two and a half and
29:06three. I took Houston at two and a half.
29:08One of the reasons I took Houston is
29:10that I just sort of believed more in the
29:14offensive improvements I saw from the
29:17Texans and that the defense will play
29:19better because it's so talented than I
29:22did in the Bengals forced fumble frenzy
29:26on defense
29:28masking a so- so game from Burrow. So
29:30now you mentioned there is news about
29:32Burrow having a a back tightness. Um,
29:37but there's also news that Nico Collins
29:39might be out because of a hamstring
29:41injury. And I think that's kind of a big
29:43deal because he was pretty key for the
29:45Texans on Sunday. I'm sticking with the
29:48Texans two and a half here, but not
29:50loving it like I did earlier in the
29:52week.
29:54>> Go split. I I've gone to the the other
29:56side. I'm on the Bengals now. I just
30:00>> I've gone their way. If Nico's missing
30:02this game,
30:03>> that's big. It's a huge Yeah, huge, huge
30:06issues for a Houston team that we still
30:09have no idea if this is a good offense.
30:10We have no idea if the Bills are just a
30:12horrible horrible defense and it's all
30:14smok and mirrors with this Houston team.
30:17And I've talked about like I think this
30:19Bengals team defensively is is much
30:22better up front. Now, we both agree if
30:25Baker held on to the ball there, we
30:27covered that easily. Pro potentially
30:28went outright. Like Joe Burrow had a
30:31horrible game and people have literally
30:33pulled up the clip the exact exact hit
30:35Joe Burrow took. It's a sideline hit.
30:38>> I'm so happy people though. It feels
30:39like it's like the Herbert thing. I felt
30:41like I'm on a different planet talking
30:43about these quarterbacks and people are
30:45finally coming around to my takes where
30:46it's like you you can't blame the
30:49offensive line for Joe Burrow
30:51shortcomings these last couple seasons.
30:52They're not as bad as we perceive. He
30:54takes unnecessary hits. Sure, some of
30:57these sacks are on the offensive line.
31:00The hit on the sideline, if you if
31:01people can find this footage of it, it's
31:04such a stupid hit. And you can see when
31:06Joe gets up, he's in pain and he is
31:08laboring that shoulder. And he had one
31:10of his worst throwing performances of
31:11his career. I mean, you don't come out
31:14of a game where Chase has, I think, 12
31:15yards receiving if something's not up
31:17with Joe Burrow. Like, the Bucks, they
31:19don't have a number one shutdown corner
31:21that can take Chase out of the game.
31:22really was just a bad game by Joe Burrow
31:25by all of his standards. So, um it's a
31:28really weird number where I just don't
31:30that's what's freaking me out here is I
31:31don't get if we know that Joe has got an
31:33injury and he's going against one of the
31:35best defenses in a historical spot where
31:39if you look through the data Ryan if
31:40their defense gives him more than 30
31:42points, he's basically like automatic
31:44play the following week. Like they're he
31:46like he's five and one I believe against
31:47the spread in this exact spot. So, it's
31:49like I don't maybe I'm just a little too
31:51gunshot about the line and also the the
31:53the public sentiment where it's like
31:56it's the same thing happened last week.
31:57I told you every pro I talked to was on
31:59Houston. So, same thing this week. Every
32:01pro I talked to was on Houston. So, I'd
32:04be happy if we could avoid this one.
32:05Maybe I'll change my view come Sunday
32:07morning, but right now I haven't really
32:08bet either side, but I'm leaning towards
32:10if this is plus three at kickoff, Joe
32:12Burrow is all good to go. He's passing
32:14today and you know is a full participant
32:17in practice. I'll invest in Joe Bro the
32:19plus three but I think people could tell
32:21like I wanted to be on Houston here.
32:22This is such a great Houston spot and
32:24usually a spot I would take them but
32:26you're now down to CJ Stout's third
32:28receiver against a offensive line I
32:31still have no idea if they're good or
32:32not. So too many unknowns for me to
32:35invest in this this Houston team at this
32:36point honestly.
32:37>> Yeah I the Nico Collins news that just
32:40came out this morning is Thursday
32:41morning. I got I'm not going to lie,
32:43like I saw that I'm like, "Ah, bummer."
32:46Because I really did want to love the
32:47Texans this week and I haven't been
32:50afraid of the bet that I made earlier in
32:52the week, but now I am a little bit
32:55because the only reason I think I like
32:56their offense because Nico Collins
32:58actually had a good game. Like the three
33:00or four times he needed to make a play
33:02and CJ needed to make a play, Nico was
33:04there
33:05>> without the number one red zone target.
33:07Yeah. Like
33:07>> it's like how big of a deal Nico being
33:10out is. It's it's it's a really big
33:13deal. Uh but I think the fact that Joe
33:16is a little bit banged up is also why
33:18the line is sort of nobody knows what to
33:20do here because you want to move it if
33:23Nico's out but you can't move it because
33:27Joe might be banged up. So we're betw
33:30twixed in between a game that I don't
33:33think we're betw twixed in between on
33:36New Orleans Saints plus eight and a
33:38half. The Baltimore Ravens
33:41ticked down a little bit. It's moved a
33:44little bit in some places from eight and
33:45a half to eight. And the places that it
33:47hasn't moved to eight, it juiced to move
33:50to eight. Um
33:53on the sharper prediction markets, it's
33:56at 8 12 and trading on the Saints is
34:00much more expensive. It tells you that
34:02professionals are coming in on the
34:04Saints at at eight and a half and
34:05they're buying the Saints at eight and a
34:06half. We both like New Orleans on
34:08Tuesday. Um I think the what the shuck
34:11factor is too high for a potential back
34:13door. It's too easy to see the Saints
34:16just grinding until the end of a
34:17blowout. The Ravens taking their foot
34:20off the gas. To me, it's similar to the
34:23Texans situation. Zay Flowers didn't
34:25practice on Wednesday and I think he's
34:28just a massive game changer. We saw it
34:30150 yards in that first quarter and a
34:33half uh the other day against the Colts.
34:36If he's not playing, it's possible he
34:40won't.
34:41I think that changes the calculus on
34:43this game quite a bit. I think I think
34:45you're getting the overreaction
34:47inflation and you might be missing a guy
34:50who has become Lamar's favorite target.
34:52So, I'm still on the Saints here.
34:56>> Yeah. And conversations I've had about
34:57this game with a lot of guys is
35:00basically you just take the cheat code
35:01here and you just take Lamar in the
35:02first half. If you want to take the
35:04Ravens, you're you're basically a rare
35:07opportunity of anytime Lamar plays a
35:09head coach for the first time, he just
35:11absolutely destroys that defensive
35:13coordinator. I mean, you saw it last
35:14week with the Colts. It's like if if if
35:16a team hasn't played against Lamar
35:18before, it really is alarming trying to
35:20prepare for this guy because he can beat
35:22you in so many different ways. And you
35:24know, this is the first time obviously
35:25Kell Moore and this coaching staff has
35:27faced Lamar. Another thing to add on to
35:29this one, guys, East Coast supposed to
35:30get big big thunderstorms and a lot of
35:32rain on Sunday. And this would be just
35:35like that Jets Green Bay game. You can
35:36throw a wrinkle into that one. This is
35:38another one that just jumps out right
35:39away cuz it's, you know, a Saints team
35:41that is an indoor team that historically
35:43has played a ton of indoor games. On the
35:44flip side, they're going against a
35:46Ravens team that wants to run the ball
35:47first like Derrick Henry, Lamar in the
35:49rain. that's going to benefit them way
35:51more than it would benefit the Saints
35:53team. So, it's a line where I was going
35:55to be very invested in cuz I think same
35:57thing we've talked about like Shuck has
35:59shown that he can come back and score
36:01points and type of guy that has the
36:03weapons the outside like we've talked a
36:05ble like they have really good weapons
36:07on the outside for this Saints team but
36:10throwing in the weather the fact that
36:11Lamar is so great against NFC teams
36:13especially first time he's faced head
36:15coaches I don't know if this will be one
36:17of our fives but I'm I'm bet into the
36:19Saints like I've invested in the Saints
36:20I've put them in you know numerous bets
36:22so it's just it's it's a bet that I'm
36:25not going to be betting heavy as much as
36:26I was going to bet this week just
36:27because not only do you have the weather
36:29factor, but you have the first time head
36:31coach stat with Lamar. He just
36:33statistically he's amazing against the
36:34first time he sees head coaches.
36:36>> What else what other bets have you put
36:37the Saints into?
36:40>> Like underdog parlays like this is like
36:42>> got it.
36:42>> I don't know if people remember it. The
36:44Raiders three years ago with Mshu this
36:46exact scenario when the Raiders he went
36:48to the Ravens after the Ravens had a
36:50blowout week one win.
36:51>> I totally remember that. And it's like
36:53the Ravens tend to have these let down
36:55games early in the season just because
36:57they're so talented. Like I'm not saying
36:59they're cakewalking this week, but we've
37:02seen that early with the Ravens. So, so
37:04that's what's going to be a great test
37:05for MTOR because we've seen under
37:06Harball this exact game the Ravens not
37:09only don't cover, they lose outright.
37:10So, I I took a bunch of position on the
37:13Saints before I knew that weather report
37:14and who knows that could the weather
37:16could benefit them, right? If it's
37:17sloppy game, it's a ton of points. But
37:20um that just jumped out to me right away
37:22where it's like oh my god an indoor team
37:24outdoors I don't know how much that
37:26benefits the Saints rather than you know
37:28the Ravens who are run first team that
37:30could benefit them more but I agree with
37:31you that the Z Flowers isn't talked
37:33about enough how big of a deal that is
37:34this offense
37:36>> that eight and a half is going to be
37:37spicy in the contest it's going to be
37:39it's going to be really hard to avoid it
37:42right now we got the Eagles in there we
37:44got the Colts I think the Saints are
37:46going to be on the edge Minnesota plus 4
37:49and a half at Chicago. The sharp side is
37:51Minnesota. You set it in sharp calls. We
37:53knew it on Tuesday when the line was 5
37:55and a half. I will be completely honest,
37:58have not bet this game. Uh the majority
38:01of the action of the sports books, the
38:04more expensive price on prediction
38:05markets, it's all Minnesota. Wise guys
38:08are invested in Minnesota.
38:12I I like have not been able to pull the
38:14trigger. Obviously, like I've watched
38:18the Cole Cole Caleb Williams to Cole KT
38:21over the shoulder throw on slow motion
38:2410,000 times. Um, long conversation
38:27breaking down the Bears and Caleb
38:29Williams just before I came on air with
38:32my buddy Matt. Uh, really examining
38:37Caleb looked like he
38:40he looked like an elite quarterback,
38:42meaning he understands his offense. He
38:43was in control. he was comfortable, but
38:46it was against the Panthers. I I I worry
38:48that might have been Pete Bears. The
38:50reason I haven't pulled the trigger is
38:53because I just know Ben Johnson plays
38:56Brian Flor's defense so well and has
38:58consistently won against this team. Can
39:01he win and cover?
39:04I don't know. But I've got a lot more
39:06faith in Caleb and Ben than I do in
39:09whoever is going to quarterback the
39:10Vikings, even with a Brian Flores
39:13defense.
39:15Yeah, and you have some good stats, too.
39:17If you if you like the Vikings, I mean,
39:20we've talked about KC, all his strengths
39:22with all these quarterbacks, call him
39:23the quarterback whisperer. It's because
39:24of these exact type of stats. He's had
39:2617 games now as a head coach and a
39:28backup couple start in those games. He's
39:3011 and five against the spread in those
39:31games. So, that's why like people are
39:33like, "How can you say this guy's a QB
39:35whisper? He's never won a playoff game."
39:37He just makes it work with a lot of
39:38trader trash and he just it out. And um
39:43the unknown of Wentz here is probably my
39:45biggest polit. It's like we we literally
39:48got the dream game. We had three
39:50touchdowns, zero turnovers by Carson
39:51Wentz last week. And
39:53>> and three penalties on third downs on
39:56the drive that saved us
39:57>> and one of them was a pick, one of them
39:59was a strip sack. Like those a strip
40:01sack and a pick was both called back
40:02because of penalties. So those jump out.
40:05I think I I'm almost positive I saw this
40:07Emma Amos who had this amazing stat
40:08where the basically the Bears who scored
40:12more than 40 points and won by more than
40:1520 in week one. Those teams in week two
40:18coming off that exact type of game four
40:21and 10 against the spread. Two and six
40:23>> of course
40:24>> two and six against the spread as a when
40:26they're listed as a favorite in week
40:27two. So statistically
40:30blindly we already know what we're
40:31supposed to do here. We're always
40:32supposed to take the Vikings here. It's
40:34like you just expect the Bears to have a
40:36let down game here. The fear is the
40:39Bears are the anomaly. Like I gave it
40:41out, you know, talking before the
40:43season, I've had a couple people say,
40:44"Well, you are you guys just going to
40:45fade the Bears every week?" It's all
40:47about the line value and it's it's what
40:49we come to the season where I had a hard
40:51time picking Caleb to be MVP, but 75 to1
40:54to be offensive player of the year. I
40:56gave that out because to me, he could be
40:58the sixth or seventh seed and just have
41:00the most insane numbers all year, Caleb.
41:03But the defense, going back and watching
41:04the film, the Bears defense is so bad
41:08and
41:09>> so bad.
41:10>> Really is like if if the carolina had
41:13just run the ball the entire game, I
41:15honestly think they might have covered
41:16like they were giving up almost six
41:18yards per carry to Chuba Hubard. And
41:21it's not like the the Vikings incredible
41:23run game here, but you know, we've seen
41:25that if teams can steadily run the ball
41:27against you and never lose that, they're
41:29always going to be in a game. Like if
41:30you're always going to be second and
41:32five, second and six, it's such a big
41:35deal, especially for a guy like Carson
41:36Wentz. So yeah, another game come Sunday
41:39morning, me and Chad might get there.
41:41But it's just I I'm just so terrified of
41:44all the teams I felt right now, no team
41:46terrifies me more to bet on than the
41:47Vikings with Carson Wentz. And no team
41:49terrifies more to bet against than the
41:51Bears because that just watching the
41:53tape, it just felt like Caleb was just
41:55in another sphere right now. He's just
41:56in total control.
41:58>> Yeah. Um, it's it's a weird number to
42:00try to take where I know we know what
42:01we're supposed to do here, Chad, but I
42:03think we're both a little scared off
42:04what we're supposed to do.
42:05>> Also, Jordan Mason, who was starting at
42:07running back for the Vikings, he's out.
42:09So, now uh it's going to be up to Aaron
42:12Jones, who all
42:13>> he's just as good, honestly. [snorts]
42:15>> Yeah. The the only difference to me is
42:16that a he fumbles and b he gets dinged
42:20up. So, then all of a sudden you're down
42:22to your third string, right? And it's
42:23Carson Wentz and a third string running
42:25back for the Vikings. Not that that's
42:27going to happen, but you know, your
42:29margin for error is just so much smaller
42:31uh at that at that point. Um Pittsburgh
42:35and New England. It's so interesting. I
42:37feel like there's so many games this
42:38week where we know what the right thing
42:40to do is, but we don't love it. This one
42:42was Simon says. And you know, sometimes
42:47on Tuesdays, we got to choose Chad's
42:49choice and Simon says, and
42:51the games don't scream to us yet. And I
42:55felt like this one was a game where
42:58similar to Atlanta when I made Chad's
43:00choice, you chose it as Simon says, but
43:03it was sort of the best of the worst on
43:05Tuesday. It hasn't really moved. I like
43:08Pittsburgh because I think
43:11I think their offense was better than
43:14they showed against the Falcons. Um,
43:18and I think that the Patriots without AJ
43:22Brown have real issues,
43:25but I don't know if this is contestw
43:27worthy. Is this like a Is this a top
43:29five for us?
43:32>> Who knows? I do I bet heavily into it. I
43:34do love this a lot for this Pittsburgh
43:36team.
43:36>> You do?
43:37>> Yeah. The fear for me is it's it's
43:39definitely a split game where like I
43:41know tons of pro smart groups that are
43:42obviously invested in this Patriots
43:43team. you expect that team to bounce
43:46back like they're in their mind they're
43:48getting good value on this team because
43:50Pittsburgh won the public will overreact
43:52to that but I told them looking at the
43:54betting markets it's honestly a lot of
43:56Patriots money like the public to me
43:58they're coming on this Patriots team
44:00because what we talked about like
44:01Pittsburgh played poorly a lot of people
44:03look at underlining numbers they look at
44:06a Pittsburgh team that you know barely
44:08beat Cooper Rush and probably shouldn't
44:10have like we said they missed multiple
44:11field goals needed a pick six or pick
44:14turnover from TJ Watt to even win that
44:16game and cover it. And I I don't think
44:19there's going to be any public glover
44:20sentiment for this Pittsburgh team. And
44:22I told you I'm on the flip side where
44:24Rogers looked good. Like going back,
44:26>> I agree.
44:27>> He was a bad DK Metaf game where DK had
44:29touchdown dropped. He had big third down
44:32plays dropped. Going through DK's
44:34history, he almost always bounces back
44:36from those exact type of games. And DK
44:38knows that. I mean, he owned it after
44:39the game saying he played so terribly.
44:41So, um, right away when I saw this
44:44number, that's why I wanted to be on
44:45Pittsburgh, which like people are going
44:47to hate them. I think shout out to our
44:49guy Nick from action. I think he had
44:50like a they were the luckiest team in
44:52all football,
44:54>> which makes total sense where what we
44:55just talked about like they had so many
44:57things break their way, but
44:59>> to me a lot of ways they were unlucky
45:02because what I just talked about, they
45:03could not get big-time receptions from
45:05their number one receiver. They had no
45:06run game against Atlanta, which is like
45:08another thing you could say, well, isn't
45:10that scary for New England partially and
45:12then I thought I saw some really stupid
45:14stat, which obviously doesn't matter,
45:15but I just love these type of things
45:17that pop up. Brave Bowl has never beat
45:18Pittsburgh. He's 0 and4 in his career
45:21against Pittsburgh as a head coach, but
45:23just thought was interesting where it's
45:24like maybe is that a Tomlin stat, but
45:26we've already seen the Tomlin voodoo
45:28without Tomlin being there last week
45:29with Pittsburgh. Maybe that's just
45:30Pittsburgh voodoo that we are
45:32underestimating here. But yeah, just a
45:34line that's it just feels too big where
45:37I I agree Patriots are probably going to
45:39win this game, but you're you're you're
45:42saying they're going to blow out
45:43Pittsburgh here. Like you're saying
45:44they're going to beat him by more than a
45:45touchdown. It's just hard for me to
45:46really see that playing out where they
45:48don't have their number one receiver.
45:49Their number two running back, Trevor
45:51Trevor Henderson, is banged up and is
45:52potentially going to miss this game as
45:54well. As much as you want to say that,
45:56you know, this Patriots team is a really
45:58good team and they're so well coached,
46:00they're not that much better, honestly,
46:02a modelwise on paper than this
46:04Pittsburgh team. Like, they're pretty
46:05evenly matched, especially that
46:06Pittsburgh is still healthy. So, the the
46:09big hangup here would be the fact that
46:11Joey Porter once again probably not
46:13going to play, but
46:14>> if AJ's not playing, eat out, right? So,
46:17it's like once again, I'm just
46:19>> it's it's a team I'm looking for reasons
46:21to bounce bail on because I'm with you.
46:22It's like I don't want to be heavily
46:24invested in Pittsburgh, but the more I
46:25think about and talk about, it's like,
46:27isn't this just an obvious play taking
46:29Pittsburgh here at these numbers? And
46:31what is there truly to be scared of with
46:33New England? Like Drake May bouncing
46:34back, I expect to happen. Like we said,
46:37he's a good quarterback. You expect him
46:38to bounce back and not have three picks
46:40in a game. But I've already gave out all
46:42the stats, people, but that cover six
46:44stuff. Every defense ran in the playoffs
46:46against Drake May. Why would Pittsburgh
46:49not run the exact same defense here? You
46:50want to keep running until he eventually
46:52beats it. So, I expect we see the exact
46:54same thing here with this defense in
46:57Pittsburgh. They're just going to drop
46:58back into coverage and let him hand it
46:59off to Stephvenson. Let Stevenson beat
47:01you. Let Stevenson beat you three, four
47:03yards at a time here. And that's what I
47:04think Pittsburgh will do. So, lowscoring
47:06game. Keep it close. Could have bad
47:08weather. Give me the five and a half
47:10with Pittsburgh.
47:11>> Yeah. As you're talking, I think we
47:13start to feel more comfortable about it
47:16because of that. I You and I are in
47:18complete agreement. Aaron Rogers, the
47:21numbers look so much worse than the game
47:25that he played and that this offense
47:27played.
47:29We'll put it on the We got to put on the
47:30list because we actually don't have that
47:31many games that I think we love.
47:35Jacksonville Denver, Denver 2 and a half
47:37point favorite. Uh this one is is headed
47:41to three or at three depending on where
47:44you look. So, I'm surprised that the
47:46sharp calls uh came in so heavily on
47:48Jacksonville. Early season altitude
47:51definitely one of the factors. Trevor
47:53Lawrence regression from a brilliant
47:56game more likely than another Broncos
47:59defensive collapse. Like those are
48:03reasons why you and I both liked Denver.
48:06Are we going to get bullied into
48:07Jacksonville here?
48:11>> Yeah, it's tough to say, Chad. I just I
48:12was with you. It's like I felt like
48:14everyone was just going to be on Denver.
48:15This feels like such an easy play on
48:16Denver. They're horrible tackling, their
48:18offense, everything just went wrong. You
48:20expect a b big bounce back here. But
48:23it's also fair to say that we have
48:25underrated this Jaguars team. And if you
48:28do look at all the underlying numbers,
48:31Trevor Lawrence has taken a major step.
48:33And whatever it is, and maybe it's just
48:36beat into us that this guy is legit an
48:38idiot. He makes very dumb plays. Maybe
48:40Liam Kum has beat that out of him
48:42because you've seen him take he does
48:44take risky throws and we talk he threw
48:46into triple coverage. He, you know,
48:48fitted through a pinhole last week
48:50against the Browns, but I still think
48:52that says more about Trevor where he
48:53just has so much confidence just playing
48:54at such a high level. On the flip side,
48:57the Broncos, they have a ton of in-house
49:00fighting right now between the web, the
49:03Shawn Pay stuff. I mean, Colin, shout
49:05out to Cow Herd,
49:07he he says stuff and you watch him on
49:09you watch him on YouTube or TV where
49:11it's like, is this Shawn Payeyton
49:13speaking or is this Colin speaking? And
49:15I've always thought that where Colin I
49:17feel like has such a good relationship
49:18with Shawn Payeyton because they work
49:19together obviously at Fox and they've
49:21done, you know, numerous times Sean's
49:23come on a show and the fact that he's
49:24talking about, you know, Bo Nicks needs
49:27to play better. This is they they're
49:29putting a lot on Bo. That's what Conor
49:30was basically saying was just like, you
49:32know, we might love Bo right now, but Bo
49:35a year from now could not be Denver's
49:36quarterback if he if he struggles and
49:38not play well. They were happy to move
49:40on from him. So that jumped out to me
49:43right away because it's like Bo Nick's,
49:44you know, he has more wins than Caleb
49:47Williams does in his first two years as
49:48a starter. Like he's done well. It's a
49:51lot to say after just one game. I
49:53thought that really jumped out to me. So
49:54are the vibes just the worst they could
49:56possibly be in the Broncos locker room?
49:58On the flip side, Jaguars, they believe
50:00in themselves. They think they are
50:02legit. And I just like historically me
50:04and you just back Denver because this is
50:05the exact time that Jack should just
50:07fall in their face. They should eat one
50:08here against a Denver team that
50:10>> they should bounce back. Like they do
50:12have a great offensive line. They do
50:13have a great defensive line. Like this
50:15is the exact time they should bounce
50:16back. But
50:18>> that's my hesitation here. It's just
50:19like we're we're betting into a a Denver
50:21team that they're looks like they're
50:23figuring things out right now where the
50:25Jaguars know exactly who they are and
50:27how they're going to play and they're
50:28going to lay that on you. So, um if this
50:31wasn't in Denver, I would be way higher
50:32in this Jaguars team. But you talked
50:33about the altitude in the first three
50:35weeks. It's a big deal for these teams
50:38flying to Denver. And we've seen that
50:40time and time again the second half
50:42where even if Denver struggles in the
50:43first half, that's such an advantage in
50:44the second half playing against a tired
50:46team in the second half that the Jaguars
50:47that's what the Jaguars will be. So if
50:50we want to bet the Jaguars, I'll be
50:51patient. I'll wait for the three. But if
50:53you are someone that wants to take
50:54Denver, I'd grab it now. I just look the
50:57splits. It's all the money. All the bets
50:59right now are on this Denver team. So
51:01the fact that there are professional
51:03money with the public betting Denver
51:04right now, I could easily see this
51:06getting to three. So, um, if I am going
51:08to bet the Jags, I'll be patient. I'll
51:10have a better read come Sunday morning,
51:11but right now I was invested in the the
51:14Denver side. I bought out onto the three
51:17on the Jaguars, and now I might really
51:18bet into it at this point on the Jaguars
51:20side. So, um, really interesting match
51:23up. I can't believe I think the the
51:24Broncos are going to start 0 and2, but
51:27we've seen it time and time again in the
51:28football, right? Doesn't matter you were
51:30the one seed or two seed last year. 0
51:32and2 it happens to the best of teams all
51:34the time. So, um I I am shocked I've
51:37come around so much in the Jaguars here
51:39in this matchup.
51:40>> Think about this.
51:42Bo Nicks a broken ankle away from
51:46probably getting to the Super Bowl
51:49and now hints and conversations that if
51:52he doesn't step it up, this guy could be
51:54gone. Like that's how fickle the NFL is
51:57and how these tiny little moments
52:00matter. I think Simon, if you take away
52:04and we we don't apply sort of
52:07regression and emotion equally to every
52:12game, no one does. And we're as guilty
52:14of it as anybody.
52:17If we just looked at the pattern, we've
52:20got a team that got blown out in prime
52:23time
52:25versus a team that dominated
52:27that has been ascendant since the end of
52:30last year with a coach that we love but
52:32still dominated.
52:34We would 100% if we just had that, we
52:37would not even look at the number. We
52:39would bet the team that got blown out
52:41against the team that is Ascendant. But
52:43I think we both have a little bit of
52:46Liam Conn syndrome because we've been
52:48watching this guy make Trevor Lawrence
52:50better and better. We talked about it
52:51all last year. We've talked about him
52:54like not calling timeouts when Trevor
52:56Lawrence could not get the play call in
52:58time and they would get a 5-yard delay,
53:00a game penalty, and he would just stare
53:02from the sideline and shake his head.
53:03Like he made the guy learn and we saw
53:05him get better and better. And I think
53:08that might be [ __ ] with our head
53:09right now.
53:12>> Yeah. just you expect Denver who played
53:14like the worst game I've seen in
53:15forever. You expect their defense to
53:16bounce back. This is one of the best
53:17teams in football to give up all this
53:19tackle. That's that's the the hesitation
53:21where it's like I thought we were going
53:22to be so in on Denver this week. I'm
53:24just shocked that I'm even betting let
53:26alone investing in this this Jaguars.
53:28So,
53:29>> it's because of Liam Con. I really
53:31believe it. Uh I can't wait to talk
53:33about that game on Sunday. Oh my god.
53:35That could be the pivot game for us and
53:36and like it just could be a miserable
53:39afternoon. Seattle at Seattle at
53:42Arizona. Arizona's a four-point dog
53:44right now. It's been bouncing around
53:45three and a half, four. It opened at
53:46four and a half, got bet down. Um, I
53:50think we both like Arizona here. I think
53:52there's a little bit Mike McDonald
53:53voodoo because he's been such a good h
53:55coach on the road. I still I'm still
53:59invested in Arizona. If we can get four
54:00and a half in the contest, I think
54:02that's the right play. Um, this nearly
54:05became our brass balls bet of the week.
54:07Uh, what say you? Agree, disagree, off
54:12it.
54:14>> Yeah. No, I'm in on it. It's um it just
54:16feels like it's it's a lot of points for
54:19what we think is a Seattle team that,
54:21you know, as great as their defense is,
54:24I've talked about it. They have a
54:26secondary that has a ton of questions,
54:27right? They have new guys at corner
54:30position. They have guys filling in
54:31right now at safety coming off their
54:32practice squad. like there's ways to
54:34attack this team which we just saw last
54:37floor. He can do a pretty damn good game
54:39plan. Like that was really impressive by
54:41this Cardinals team what they came in
54:42game plan wise and um our our hesitation
54:45here would only be that
54:47>> we're back in a Cardinals team that this
54:49line has moved six points. I mean it was
54:5010 and a half before the Sam Darnold
54:53injury and before the Cardinals one. So
54:55is that too much movement? I've I've
54:58said it. I feel like it's right. Like as
54:59much crap as I give to Sam Darnold
55:01because he led the league in turnovers
55:03last year, I still think he's a better
55:05quarterback consistently than someone
55:07like Drew Lock. That's been Drew Lock's
55:09Achilles seal, man. He's just not
55:12consistent week to week, game to game.
55:13And um you know, the Cardinals, like we
55:17said, they have no one that can put ton
55:18of fear into you. That game last week
55:21was so much about the Chargers interior
55:23line just not be able to pass block and
55:24Herbert just looked underprepared. So,
55:27you know, matchup wise, I can see why
55:29it's, you know, all the money, even
55:31looking at a poly market right now, all
55:32the bets, all the money is just on
55:34Seattle. So, it's like the public is
55:36coming in thinking they're getting a
55:37great number. Uh, especially if you're
55:39able to get three and a half. I I see
55:42this maybe potentially getting to four
55:44and a half by Sunday again. So, that's
55:46the only reason I was hesitant to even
55:48make a brass walls because I don't want
55:49to give people a bad number, honestly.
55:51like you you could take three and a
55:53half, you could take four right now if
55:54you wanted to on the Cardinals. I think
55:56if you're patient, you could easily get
55:58four and a half come Sunday. Like I just
56:00I don't see anyone but professionals
56:01like us taking a position on this
56:03Cardinals team. So, um as we stand right
56:05here from matchup wise, I already gave
56:08you those numbers. Mike McDonald on the
56:10road three and 13 and three against the
56:12spread. He's just incredible as a coach
56:14and we we know that. Um like he's just
56:16been so dominant since he's been a
56:18Seahawks coach on the road. I mean, I
56:20remember last year we just blindly bet
56:21him every time on the road. So, we're
56:23going against ourselves here back in
56:25this Cardinals team here. But, it just
56:26feels like a little bit too much of an
56:28inflated line. And, uh, I do think the
56:30Bucks made the right move by moving it
56:32so much, right? If it was still above
56:34seven, this would have been an automatic
56:36hammer type of bet for a lot of
56:37professionals. But, the fact that you're
56:39still above the key number of three and
56:40a half, I still think you're getting
56:41great value here on this Cardinals team.
56:43So, not going to let Mike McDonald scare
56:45us off here. We'll we'll take this
56:47number. Simon, I feel like
56:51when we talk about it on Sunday, just to
56:53recap here, the Eagles are going to be
56:54in the conversation, the Colts will be
56:56in the conversation, the Saints will be
56:58in the conversation,
57:00Pittsburgh
57:02and Arizona will all be in the
57:04conversation,
57:06but the Jags are lingering, Minnesota is
57:10lingering. Uh it's not it's not going to
57:13be as easy to get to those final five uh
57:16as as we were hoping it might be. We'll
57:20figure it out on Sunday. Our Discord
57:23grouper of the week. Reminder, join the
57:25Discord. You can pre-order my book that
57:27comes out in January called The Number
57:30at the.com. It's all about the
57:31highstakes world of sports betting and
57:34prediction markets. I traveled all over
57:36the world, spent a lot of time with
57:38really high stakes betterers. Uh, go to
57:41readthenumber.com,
57:44get the invite, join the discard, help
57:46us raise money for St. Jude's. We won
57:48our biggest uh, our Discord grouper of
57:51the week last week with the Pittsburgh
57:53money line. This week, we had a lot of
57:56choices. We had the Eagles money line.
57:59Um, I think we had Denver on the money
58:01line. I threw a couple in teasers in
58:03there. And this is a sick sick group,
58:06Simon, because the winner with the most
58:09votes, the top two vote getters were
58:13both teasers. The winner, Ravens,
58:16Eagles, six-point teaser, taking them
58:18down to uh Ravens - 2 and a half, Eagles
58:20minus one. Minus 134 is the number I
58:24got. In second place was a Ravens uh
58:28Bucks teaser. Maybe an Eagles Bucks
58:30teaser. One of those. What do you think?
58:35>> I hope it hits.
58:37>> Do you like the play? Would you do a a
58:39Ravens Eagles teaser?
58:42>> Um I I don't honestly I don't hate it. I
58:45just told you my my view of the Ravens.
58:48Like that's just historically a spot
58:50where they tend to let down. But yeah, I
58:51would bet it like just it's you're
58:54against NFC indoor team that could it
58:56could be in the weather. It's like,
58:58sure, no, no problem there taking a
59:00teaser on uh taking on him. But if you
59:03want to just put the Bucks in rather
59:05than that one, that's also a smart play
59:06in my opinion. Like I have amazing
59:08amazing Buck stats when you talk about
59:10Survivor here coming up. So that's
59:12another one where it's like if I do a
59:13team of Survivor,
59:15>> you bet your ass I'm putting them in a
59:16ton of money line parlays. Like if I'm
59:18losing all my Survivor contests, my
59:20chance to win millions of dollars, I'm
59:21also going to lose all my own money
59:23betting on that side as well. That's
59:24just how it is. All right, we're going
59:26with the uh with the Ravens and the
59:28Eagles teaser minus 134. Uh join the
59:31Discord, make your voice heard, join the
59:34voting, read the number.com pre-order
59:37the book, get the invite. Our underdog,
59:39uh roundroin, moneyline,
59:43uh parlay, the the roundroin. That was
59:47my bad. I didn't do the roundroin last
59:49week. I got the feedback in the discord
59:51uh to do it this week. Simon, who are
59:54money line underdog, roundroin entrance?
59:59>> So, we're doing three or five. Three or
1:00:01five teams.
1:00:03>> Let's Let's do five.
1:00:07>> All right. Well, we got to if if we're
1:00:08going off games we're betting here. Got
1:00:11to do Pittsburgh.
1:00:12>> Yep.
1:00:13>> Gotta do Jets.
1:00:15>> Yep.
1:00:16>> Gotta do Atlanta.
1:00:18>> Yep.
1:00:20>> And then we got to go with our Darlings,
1:00:21right? We got to go with the Colts.
1:00:23and the Cardinals.
1:00:24>> Yeah, Cardinals.
1:00:27>> Wow, that's an ugly one.
1:00:30[laughter]
1:00:30>> Yeah, it is.
1:00:31>> That is legitimately
1:00:32>> I would go very small on that one
1:00:34because even even saying out loud, it's
1:00:35like, man, we that would be an insane
1:00:37week two results if uh we go four for
1:00:39one in that one.
1:00:40>> Yeah, let's just take a taste. Don't be
1:00:42irresponsible. Um favorite Ron Robin,
1:00:47last week we won with Pittsburgh,
1:00:49Philadelphia, and Detroit.
1:00:52Uh,
1:00:54Eagles,
1:00:57you got to do them.
1:00:59Um,
1:01:00>> it feels pretty simple, right? You go
1:01:02Eagles. I like Bucks, obviously.
1:01:05>> And then if you want to do Chargers, you
1:01:06believe Chargers bounce back, you can.
1:01:08I'm going to do the Rams. Like the Rams
1:01:10just feel like,
1:01:11>> yeah,
1:01:12>> McVey started 0 and2 with them laying
1:01:14another egg in that spot. It just it
1:01:16would be shocking. As much as I think
1:01:17the Giants are better, it's really a
1:01:19Rams bet. And statistically,
1:01:22if if a team is coming to the season
1:01:24with the high standards that this this
1:01:26Rams team has, you just expect with the
1:01:29Super Bowl quarterback they have and a
1:01:31Super Bowl head coach, they would bounce
1:01:33back here. Like they know the pits of
1:01:35being 0 and2. And the vibes could not be
1:01:38higher for that Giants team. I just like
1:01:40again a great test for Harbaugh as a
1:01:42head coach to have his young team ready
1:01:44for this game because this feels like a
1:01:45total letdown spot for the Giants. So,
1:01:48um, yeah, for me, Rams, Eagles, Bucks,
1:01:52uh, if you want to switch out Rams and
1:01:53put it in the Ravens as well, got no
1:01:55issue with that. For my three, that's
1:01:57what I would do.
1:01:58>> I mean, look, we I love the Rams. We
1:02:00talked about it on Tuesday. I love the
1:02:02Rams at minus 7. So, I love the idea of
1:02:06putting them in this probably. I think
1:02:08the I think everything you just said is
1:02:10exactly right. Biggest bets, Simon.
1:02:16Yeah, I mean for for for right now
1:02:18because I it's really about the numbers.
1:02:20That's what week two I try to let the
1:02:21public and pros move numbers to my
1:02:23advantage. And it's like I'm just
1:02:25waiting to pop on key numbers here. So
1:02:26honestly for for bets I've heavily
1:02:29invested in right now, I would probably
1:02:31say Colts is number one. And then right
1:02:34behind that, I mean hopefully people can
1:02:36hear before the game kicks off. I just
1:02:38the more I look at I love this this
1:02:39under so much in this Lions Bills game
1:02:41where it's like I've already bet the
1:02:43Bills as well. Like I've invested in the
1:02:45Bills because I think I'm pretty sure
1:02:47their right tackle is out for the
1:02:48Detroit and their left guards out. So
1:02:52now they're already down 40% of their
1:02:53offensive line, the Lions. They're also
1:02:55missing two starting safeties. Like it
1:02:57just it feels like a lot here, but it's
1:02:59it's a I give you that stat about these
1:03:01short weeks and it tends to favor these
1:03:03dogs that come off these overtime games.
1:03:05So, um, the the total
1:03:08once again a had an amazing amazing twe
1:03:11tweet that I retweeted.
1:03:14The total opened at 52 and a half. It's
1:03:16now up to 54 and a half.
1:03:17>> It's ridiculous.
1:03:18>> This would be the highest overunder game
1:03:20on teams on short rest that we've had
1:03:22since 2022. So, since 2020 2012, teams
1:03:26on short rest on a Thursday game with a
1:03:29total above 51, the under is nine and 0.
1:03:33So, it's like the exact thing lines up
1:03:36to me, right? Two teams come off very
1:03:38highscoring games. Public is all in on
1:03:39it. They love it. It's a short week.
1:03:41They're just blindly going to bet this
1:03:42over total. I honestly think the Lions
1:03:45offense could struggle. Like, you're
1:03:46going to as much as much crap I want to
1:03:48give the Bills defense for being bad.
1:03:50You saw they were able to get after CJ,
1:03:52especially end of that game. Like, they
1:03:54do have some type of pass rush. You're
1:03:56taking away now a guy starting right
1:03:57tackle and left guard. There's no way
1:03:59the Bills don't take advantage of that.
1:04:01So yeah, for my two biggest bets right
1:04:03now, definitely Colts. If you want to
1:04:04get that now, I I think that could
1:04:05easily get under six for this total 54
1:04:08and a half, 55 if you're lucky. I grab
1:04:11an odd. There's no way professionals
1:04:13don't just hammer this under before
1:04:15kickoff tonight.
1:04:17Uh, all right. Sharp versus square. Last
1:04:19week, I had the New York Jets plus one
1:04:22and a half. You had the New York Giants
1:04:25plus three. We're both winners.
1:04:27carryover from last season since you won
1:04:29and we tied in the first week. I will
1:04:31give you first choice.
1:04:35>> All right. Even though I love the Colts,
1:04:36we already used that for um
1:04:38>> Balls
1:04:40like to break it up a little bit. So,
1:04:45I'll uh Damn it. I guess I guess I'll do
1:04:48it. I'll take uh give me the Cardinals
1:04:51plus four.
1:04:52>> Okay. Okay, that's great because I'm
1:04:55gonna take the Saints plus eight and a
1:04:56half. Um,
1:04:59and
1:05:01I was debating between the Saints and
1:05:04the Cardinals. So, I feel like that's a
1:05:06that's a fair bet there. Survivor
1:05:10escaped, survived with Pittsburgh last
1:05:12week. You just mentioned the Bucks. The
1:05:15other obvious option is San Francisco
1:05:17minus 13 and a half against Miami.
1:05:22I guess when I when I'm looking down the
1:05:24road, who do I have more of an option to
1:05:26use later in the season? Uh,
1:05:30but that would be my my thinking. I'd
1:05:33probably lean San Francisco, but I'm I'm
1:05:35You seem dug in on the Bucks.
1:05:38>> Yeah, if you're an absolute coward, want
1:05:41to play as safe as possible, 49ers.
1:05:43Like, there's just I can't see a world
1:05:45where Miami actually pulls off that
1:05:46upset. Now, covering, sure, maybe
1:05:48there's a potential of that, but even
1:05:51that is a slim to no chance. Like, it's
1:05:53just um when I look at the film of
1:05:56Miami, there are so many glaring holes
1:05:57and weaknesses to that team that a head
1:05:59coach like Kyle, even if he's sleepd
1:06:01deprived or jetlagged, he's going to
1:06:03find a way to exploit. So, very, very
1:06:05safe play. My push against using them,
1:06:08once again, it's all about game theory.
1:06:10I believe they have a by-week in week 10
1:06:12or 11 49ers and then they play the
1:06:14Raiders at home. So potentially
1:06:18Mendoza is now their starter potentially
1:06:19because this is going to be much later
1:06:20in the season. The Raiders aren't coming
1:06:22off any any break. They're g this is
1:06:24going to be their 11th straight game,
1:06:26right? They they haven't had a buy yet.
1:06:27So you're hoping for a beat down Raiders
1:06:30team against a well-rested uh 49ers team
1:06:32at home. That's why you save them. Bucks
1:06:34couldn't find another game. Like if you
1:06:36want to risk them against the Saints at
1:06:39home, against Carolina at home, against
1:06:41Atlanta at home, you can do that. That's
1:06:42their easiest games. But we talk all the
1:06:44time, divisional games get a little
1:06:45wonky. Like there is no safe game there
1:06:47with the Bucks.
1:06:48>> Yeah,
1:06:48>> this is the stats I absolutely love
1:06:50though about this Bucks team. Um, first
1:06:52one, very stupid stats. Shout out to our
1:06:54guy Evan because I just I love some of
1:06:56his really stupid stats. They're just so
1:06:57great though. It's Bucks are nine and0
1:06:59against the spread in week two. So
1:07:02again, totally useless stat, but I love
1:07:04that that they're nine and0 against the
1:07:06spread in week two um over the last 10
1:07:08seasons covering covering by nine points
1:07:10per game. last 20 seasons they are 16
1:07:14and three against the spread in week
1:07:16two. So Bizaro World for some reason
1:07:19this Bucks team is just money in week
1:07:21two. Deshawn Watson, he's faced 16
1:07:24opponents that have averaged 27 points
1:07:26per game in his career. He is three and
1:07:2913 straight up. He's lost eight in a row
1:07:33and his last uh he's lost eight in a row
1:07:36since playing the Chiefs in the playoffs
1:07:37in 2020. So that's how long it's been
1:07:40since Watson's beat a team that can is a
1:07:43highscoring team. So it's like if I die
1:07:46here in Survivor on this Bucks team. I
1:07:48mean it's going to be brutal, but it's
1:07:49like even the underlying numbers is
1:07:51screaming at you. You have to take the
1:07:53Bucks here to bounce back after such a
1:07:55bad week one loss. You have to back
1:07:57Baker here to bounce back as well. And
1:07:58it's like matchup wise, this just feels
1:08:01like such a nice number. And one more
1:08:03Deshun Watson stat. Deshun Watson his
1:08:05career. If he finishes, you know, this
1:08:07line stays where it's at, right? If he's
1:08:09an underdog of six points or more, he is
1:08:120 and n in his career straight up.
1:08:14Deshun Watson has never ever won a game
1:08:16outright. The exact spot with this
1:08:18number. So, I know it's scary. I'm going
1:08:20all in on this Bucks here with Survivor,
1:08:22but we we have to people. This is the
1:08:24exact spot to use this team and not
1:08:26think about it ever again. Just like the
1:08:28Pittsburgh.
1:08:29It's nice to get these teams out of out
1:08:31of your your list right away. And that's
1:08:33how I feel about the Bucks.
1:08:35>> Well, it's interesting you say that and
1:08:36we don't want we won't spend too much
1:08:37more time on it, but the reason I leaned
1:08:39into the NerS is because the Bucks scare
1:08:43me playing the Falcons. They scare me
1:08:45playing the Saints. They scare me
1:08:47playing the Panthers. Um, so looking
1:08:50down, I mean, the reason why I didn't
1:08:51like I didn't go too hard into the ners
1:08:54is because I thought later in the year,
1:08:57I don't know when I'm going to want to
1:08:58use the Bucks again because of their
1:09:00division. So,
1:09:02it's going to be the Bucks. It'll be the
1:09:05Bucks. That's our show, folks. Uh Simon
1:09:08and I will be back on Sunday with our
1:09:11final NFL week 2 bets that we'll throw
1:09:14into the contest into the free $25,000
1:09:18pick them contest. Sign up now. Sharp
1:09:20orers square.thevolume.com.
1:09:22This has been Sharper Square presented
1:09:24by Poly Market, part of the volume
1:09:26podcast network. Watch or listen on
1:09:28YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this
1:09:30video, subscribe to the channel.
1:09:31Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
1:09:33wherever you get your pods. Rate review.
1:09:35Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say
1:09:37whatever you want. Feedback as a gift
1:09:38until Sunday. Love you.
1:09:42>> Let each new temple nobler than the last
1:09:44shut thee from heaven with a dome more
1:09:46vast. Poet all over window homes. Might
1:09:48well have been prophesying today's era
1:09:49of sports stadium construction.
1:09:51>> Well said, Brent. It does seem as though
1:09:53city after city, though, is trying to
1:09:54encapsulate its populace and ever nobler
1:09:56temples and vaster domes. We finally
1:09:59reached the point the structure has
1:10:00become a greater attraction than the
1:10:02teams it was built to house.
1:10:06>> [music]

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