"SCHD vs 국내고배당 어떤 거 사야할까?"...배당주 ETF 투자와 종목 선택 20분 안에 끝내 드립니다 — Transcript

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1. 0:00Hello. I'm Lee Ho-seok.
2. 0:02Today, let's talk about dividend stocks
3. 0:04.
4. 0:05It’s a topic we don’t often cover at the
5. 0:07Lee Ho-seok Academy. That’s because I’m
6. 0:09not really a big fan of dividend stocks
7. 0:11.
8. 0:12I hate to say it right from the start,
9. 0:14but since I prefer growth stocks over
10. 0:15dividend stocks, I don't usually invest
11. 0:17in them, but in times like these when
12. 0:19it’s hard to beat the market, I think, "
13. 0:20Ah, should I have bought some dividend
14. 0:22stocks back then?"
15. 0:24It’s that kind of timing, and besides,
16. 0:26when the cold wind blows, dividend stock
17. 0:28investments aimed at year-end payouts
18. 0:30tend to become popular again.
19. 0:32So, today we are going to talk about
20. 0:34dividend stocks. You know, I talked
21. 0:37about covered calls last time.
22. 0:42When I explained covered calls back then
23. 0:45, I described them as... "These are like
24. 0:48MSG."
25. 0:50"It's like a processed food." That’s how
26. 0:52I described it.
27. 0:56If you think of covered call products as
28. 0:58something that forces a dividend to be
29. 1:01created through financial engineering,
30. 1:03then dividend stocks are like organic
31. 1:06products.
32. 1:07Purely organic.
33. 1:09So, if you actually want to receive
34. 1:12dividends, dividend stocks are cleaner
35. 1:14and better than covered calls.
36. 1:17But the problem is, these are still
37. 1:20stocks. Meaning the stock prices can go
38. 1:23up or fall. So it feels a bit
39. 1:24nerve-wracking. Also, they say it gives
40. 1:26dividends, but is it guaranteed to keep
41. 1:28paying them? Is it for real? It’s hard
42. 1:31to trust, right? Because covered calls
43. 1:33are processed foods, they at least pay
44. 1:34you something no matter what. Whether
45. 1:36the price of the underlying asset drops
46. 1:38or not, they’ll pay you. But with stocks
47. 1:40, you worry, "What if they don't pay?""
48. 1:42What if the company's performance
49. 1:44worsens and they stop paying dividends?
50. 1:45"
51. 1:46Because of these concerns, there's less
52. 1:49trust, and it's a bit ambiguous, but as
53. 1:51I said, since it’s not a processed
54. 1:53product, it is actually a better
55. 1:55investment.
56. 1:56If you want cash flow. Which one do I
57. 1:59personally prefer? I would generally
58. 2:02lean more towards dividend stocks. So, I
59. 2:05think we first need to define what a
60. 2:07dividend stock is.
61. 2:09Let’s take a company, say, HS Academy.
62. 2:14The company makes money. It generates
63. 2:16revenue. Let’s say the revenue is,
64. 2:18hopefully, 1 trillion—is that too much?
65. 2:211 trillion.
66. 2:22>> It’s gotta be 1 trillion.
67. 2:23>> It’s gotta be 1 trillion, so that’s good
68. 2:24. Revenue of 1 trillion, and let's say
69. 2:27the expenses are how much? Shall we say
70. 2:29around 0.5 trillion?
71. 2:31So, a profit of 500 billion won—a day
72. 2:34like this will come, right?
73. 2:36Let’s just say such a day comes. So, if
74. 2:38HS Academy has a net profit of 500
75. 2:39billion won, that’s huge. The more I
76. 2:41think about it, it’s incredible, though
77. 2:43it does seem a bit too large, but let’s
78. 2:45just say 500 billion won. Then, from the
79. 2:47company’s perspective, there are various
80. 2:49concerns. "Wow, we made so much profit
81. 2:51this year, how should we use it?" That
82. 2:53becomes a new concern. At first, our
83. 2:55company worried, "Oh, how are we going
84. 2:56to pay salaries?" We worried about that
85. 2:58, but now that there's money left over—
86. 3:00by the way, our company is very far from
87. 3:02this situation. I’m just saying that I
88. 3:03purposefully talked about something far
89. 3:05off, but let’s assume 500 billion is
90. 3:06left. Let's just assume. It's 500
91. 3:07billion won, where should we spend this
92. 3:09? Oh, what should I do? We start to have
93. 3:11these concerns, and to talk about this,
94. 3:13we need to know the concept of a "life
95. 3:15cycle." The concept of a life cycle.
96. 3:17What does a life cycle mean? When a
97. 3:19company is born, it comes into the world
98. 3:22crying, right? Our company is 3 years
99. 3:25old now, but when it’s first born, it’s
100. 3:27in the red. A deficit. It’s naturally a
101. 3:29deficit. There’s no revenue because we
102. 3:31started with just an idea, so it’s a
103. 3:33deficit.
104. 3:34So, moving from a deficit to a surplus,
105. 3:37this period is what we call high growth
106. 3:39.
107. 3:40"Wow, this is crazy, at this rate we’re
108. 3:43going to pierce the sky," and that’s why
109. 3:45we call them growth companies or growth
110. 3:48stocks.
111. 3:49At first, as a startup, it doesn't make
112. 3:51money, but once it grows and starts
113. 3:52making money, it begins to earn at a
114. 3:54scary pace. Then the slope starts to
115. 3:57bend a little. How does it bend? Look
116. 3:59here. It bends like this right here.
117. 4:01It’s still growing, but the slope of
118. 4:04that growth is bending. This is what we
119. 4:07call the maturity stage. Maturity stage
120. 4:09.
121. 4:10If you compare it to a person, that’s
122. 4:12the turbulent period. If you view that
123. 4:14as adolescence, the maturity stage is
124. 4:16like when you get a job and start to
125. 4:18mature. Then, what comes after the
126. 4:20maturity stage? The twilight years.
127. 4:22>> After passing through the maturity stage
128. 4:24, you go through a decline stage.
129. 4:26Decline stage.
130. 4:27>> Decline, meaning the company’s standing
131. 4:30gradually begins to tilt.
132. 4:33We thought revenue would be amazing and
133. 4:34we’d make even more profit, but alas, it
134. 4:36turns out like this.
135. 4:38Oh, it just ends up like that. Then you
136. 4:40might think like this.
137. 4:43At first, the profit is 100 billion,
138. 4:44then 200 billion, 300 billion, 500
139. 4:46billion, and you think it will continue
140. 4:48, but then suddenly, it’s 500 billion,
141. 4:50then 400 billion, then 300 billion—if it
142. 4:52seems like it’s going to decrease like
143. 4:54that, the problem is that companies grow
144. 4:56at first.
145. 4:58Then everyone, including me, wants to
146. 5:00buy your company's stock. That's what
147. 5:02happens. When making money. But until
148. 5:04this point, I want to buy your stock too
149. 5:06. But what happens when it gets to this
150. 5:08point?
151. 5:09You'd think, "I don't want to hold your
152. 5:10stock anymore.""I want to sell it,"
153. 5:12you'd say. Then what happens if people
154. 5:14just keep selling? The company
155. 5:16>> fails.
156. 5:16>> It will disappear, right? So, what can
157. 5:18be used to tell these people not to sell
158. 5:22is dividends. "Don't sell your stock; if
159. 5:24you hold it, I'll give you a dividend."
160. 5:25That's what it is. For example, it's
161. 5:27like this. The net profit of a company
162. 5:29called HS Academy is 0.5 trillion won.
163. 5:31Then, they could pay dividends out of
164. 5:34this. And they could also buy back and
165. 5:36retire their own shares. It means buying
166. 5:38back treasury shares and retiring them.
167. 5:40What "buying back and retiring shares"
168. 5:42means is, for instance, in our company,
169. 5:44all the employees hold a little bit of
170. 5:46stock. "Hand it over.""Just sell it to
171. 5:48me." And then we just get rid of them.
172. 5:50Then the value for those who didn't sell
173. 5:53goes up. Automatically. So, the company
174. 5:55buys them with its own money, meaning
175. 5:57they pay shareholders to buy back the
176. 5:58stock and eliminate it. Since the number
177. 6:01of shares decreases, the people who
178. 6:02originally held the stock see their
179. 6:04value go up just by sitting still.
180. 6:06Dividends are just giving money directly
181. 6:08to the shareholders.
182. 6:10When paying that dividend, for example,
183. 6:12if the net profit is 0.5 trillion, what
184. 6:14if they pay out 20%?
185. 6:16Then they would pay out 0.1 trillion won
186. 6:19.
187. 6:20And thankfully, luckily, HS Academy is
188. 6:22listed, so the market cap of this
189. 6:25company is...
190. 6:281 trillion? Does that even make sense?
191. 6:30Anyway, let's say it's 1 trillion won.
192. 6:32Then what happens now? Let's just
193. 6:34imagine for a moment. The company was
194. 6:35originally making a lot of money, but
195. 6:37now that it's starting to decline, they
196. 6:38pay a 0.1 trillion won dividend. But the
197. 6:40market cap is 1 trillion won. So what
198. 6:42happens then? Should we sell it? Should
199. 6:45we buy it? When you're pondering this,
200. 6:47what you can think about is the dividend
201. 6:52yield.
202. 6:54How do you calculate the dividend yield
203. 6:55? The dividend is 0.1 trillion. But the
204. 6:57market cap is 1 trillion. So it becomes
205. 7:000.1 divided by 1. What is that? It
206. 7:02becomes 10%. Then you can say this. As I
207. 7:05mentioned earlier, when it reaches the
208. 7:06maturity phase and begins to decline, if
209. 7:08they pay a dividend, well, it's 0.1
210. 7:10trillion, so that's 10%.
211. 7:12"Why would you sell the stock when you
212. 7:14get a 10%dividend just by holding it?"
213. 7:16You can tell them not to sell. The
214. 7:18reason I'm telling you this is that
215. 7:21stocks with high dividends rarely fall
216. 7:25into this segment. They are stocks in
217. 7:27this segment.
218. 7:29I drew this diagram calling it 'Setek,'
219. 7:31and while there are various types of
220. 7:34companies, the point I want to make is
221. 7:36that there is no growth.
222. 7:39But even if there is no growth, to tell
223. 7:41investors not to sell our stock, we must
224. 7:43pay high dividends. So, there are
225. 7:45companies that pay high dividends. But
226. 7:47there are companies capable of paying
227. 7:48high dividends. Which companies can
228. 7:50afford to pay high dividends?
229. 7:51>> Those with solid earnings.
230. 7:53>> Exactly. What does it mean to have solid
231. 7:55earnings? The company is doing well.
232. 7:58>> Being successful is part of it, but
233. 7:59>> consistently.
234. 8:00>> The expression 'consistently' is
235. 8:01important.
236. 8:02'Consistently' means that if you want
237. 8:04people to believe dividends will
238. 8:06continue, you must pay them steadily.
239. 8:08What does 'paying consistently' mean? It
240. 8:11means they are recession-proof. That's
241. 8:13how it is.
242. 8:14A company that makes huge profits when
243. 8:15the economy is good but suffers heavy
244. 8:17losses when it's bad cannot pay
245. 8:18dividends.
246. 8:19Basically, why couldn't they? Well, if
247. 8:22they might face a loss next year, how
248. 8:23could they pay dividends? They'd rather
249. 8:25save that money to cover next year's
250. 8:27potential losses. Because of this
251. 8:28mindset, they cannot pay dividends. So,
252. 8:30companies that can pay dividends
253. 8:32consistently are mostly domestic-demand
254. 8:35stocks. Domestic stocks. Domestic demand
255. 8:37. What does 'domestic demand' mean? It
256. 8:40means doing business within our own
257. 8:42country. Within our country. When doing
258. 8:45business domestically, our economy also
259. 8:47has its ups and downs. But in reality,
260. 8:50the difference isn't that massive. A
261. 8:53prime example would be food and beverage
262. 8:55companies.
263. 8:56>> Companies like Lotte or KT&G—I actually
264. 8:59consider KT&G to be practically the only
265. 9:02true dividend stock in Korea.
266. 9:06Besides food and beverages, there are
267. 9:08financial stocks, insurance firms, and
268. 9:10financial companies.
269. 9:12Even when times are tough, they still
270. 9:15make money. So, these companies have the
271. 9:17capacity to pay dividends.
272. 9:19Therefore, you can view stocks related
273. 9:21to domestic demand as the ones that pay
274. 9:23high dividends.
275. 9:25Now, here is where a very important
276. 9:27point arises. Are you going to invest in
277. 9:29Korean dividend stocks? Are you going to
278. 9:31invest in US dividend stocks?
279. 9:32Surprisingly, the answer to this
280. 9:34question can be found in this one word.
281. 9:36Why is that? Well, the Korean domestic
282. 9:39market is small, isn't it? The US
283. 9:42domestic market is enormous.
284. 9:45So, among the companies doing business
285. 9:47in the US, there are so many that just
286. 9:49keep earning money consistently.
287. 9:52>> I have a question.
288. 9:53>> What about China or India then?
289. 9:55>> In China or India, there aren't many
290. 9:58companies that think they should work
291. 10:00hard to pay dividends.
292. 10:03That’s why I say it’s very good to
293. 10:06invest in dividend stocks in the U.S.
294. 10:09Let me give you an example; was it three
295. 10:11years ago?
296. 10:14I went to Omaha.
297. 10:17I was really surprised after visiting
298. 10:19Omaha.
299. 10:20It felt like such a rural area, smack in
300. 10:23the middle of the U.S., to the point
301. 10:25where I wondered if it was really that
302. 10:27rural. But they were just doing their
303. 10:30own thing inside, and they had no
304. 10:31problem making a living at all.
305. 10:34The reason I’m telling you this is that
306. 10:36the U.S. is a country where you can make
307. 10:37a living just by doing business well
308. 10:39within its 50 states.
309. 10:41So, since they are making a living, what
310. 10:42can they do? They can pay dividends. And
311. 10:44they can keep paying those dividends.
312. 10:46So, in a way, it could be more
313. 10:48advantageous to invest in dividend
314. 10:49stocks in the U.S. You can see it as
315. 10:51that kind of story.
316. 10:53Then, what kind of dividend stocks are
317. 10:54there actually? I’ll talk about just two
318. 10:57of them. The first one is a dividend
319. 10:59stock in Korea. It's the Plus High
320. 11:01Dividend stock.
321. 11:05Yes. Since you might not know it by just
322. 11:07saying "Plus High Dividend," I'll give
323. 11:09you the code as well. If you look up
324. 11:11161510, it will come up.
325. 11:13What are the characteristics of the Plus
326. 11:15High Dividend stock?
327. 11:17It has been managed by Hanwha Asset
328. 11:19Management since 2012. It has the
329. 11:21largest AUM among dividend stocks in
330. 11:23Korea.
331. 11:24It holds as much as 2.2 trillion won.
332. 11:27How do they choose them? They pick 30
333. 11:29companies expected to pay high dividends
334. 11:31in the future from 200 large-cap
335. 11:33companies. They select 30 stocks and
336. 11:36invest intensively in them. For example
337. 11:39, I mentioned it earlier.
338. 11:41DB Insurance, then Woori Financial Group
339. 11:44.
340. 11:47And companies like Industrial Bank of
341. 11:49Korea are also included. KT, such
342. 11:50telecom stocks will likely be included
343. 11:52here as well.
344. 11:54Telecom stocks are included, and
345. 11:55companies like KT&G that I mentioned
346. 11:57earlier are also in there.
347. 11:59These are representative dividend stocks
348. 12:01in our country. These dividend stocks
349. 12:03seem like they will pay a lot of
350. 12:04dividends now and in the future as well
351. 12:05. So, if you want to invest in dividend
352. 12:07stocks, investing in Plus High Dividend
353. 12:09stocks is also a good method.
354. 12:11Domestically, that is. But what if you
355. 12:12want to invest in the U.S.? Then what
356. 12:14happens?
357. 12:15Many of you are probably already
358. 12:16investing in the U.S. It’s the concept
359. 12:18of SCHD.
360. 12:19This ETF called SCHD has its own
361. 12:21characteristics.
362. 12:23To get into this ETF, since there are
363. 12:25many companies in the U.S. that pay high
364. 12:28dividends, they can line them up and say
365. 12:30, "You come in, and you go away."
366. 12:32That’s how many pools of
367. 12:33high-dividend-paying companies there are
368. 12:34right now. There aren't that many in our
369. 12:36country. But in the U.S., there are
370. 12:37truly many companies like that. So,
371. 12:39there are criteria, such as having no
372. 12:42years without dividends for at least 10
373. 12:45years. But honestly, this is a very
374. 12:47difficult task. I mean, it means you
375. 12:49have to keep doing business well for 10
376. 12:50years. Or it could even be like this.
377. 12:53Some companies didn't do well, but they
378. 12:54even borrowed money just to pay
379. 12:56dividends. Companies like Apple borrow
380. 12:58money to buy back their own shares. So,
381. 13:00the determination to return value to
382. 13:02shareholders through dividends must be
383. 13:04that firm. This 10-year period is what
384. 13:06is truly important. Second is cash. When
385. 13:10cash comes in, we examine if they have
386. 13:13the ability to pay off their debt with
387. 13:15it.
388. 13:16We also look at whether they make good
389. 13:18money, and naturally, whether they have
390. 13:20increased dividends is another criterion
391. 13:22.
392. 13:23Meaning they don't just pay a little, or
393. 13:25pay the same amount, but they have been
394. 13:27increasing dividends every year.
395. 13:29If we think about how this is possible,
396. 13:31it's because, as I mentioned, the U.S.
397. 13:33domestic market is so robust. That is
398. 13:35how it can be seen.
399. 13:38This dividend product, SCHD, has very
400. 13:40important advantages in this sense, and
401. 13:42if I were to explain the reason why it
402. 13:45can continue to invest well personally,
403. 13:47in one word, it has built a strong
404. 13:49economic moat.
405. 13:53So, by building a moat to keep out
406. 13:55competitors and protect their business
407. 13:58from being disrupted, companies can
408. 14:00continue to earn a lot and pay high
409. 14:02dividends, so there's no problem for us
410. 14:05to invest.
411. 14:07This is how we can summarize it.
412. 14:10>> Oh, CEO, but you said last time that for
413. 14:12Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, it might be more
414. 14:14profitable to buy products replicated in
415. 14:16Korea due to tax issues.
416. 14:18>> Ah, right, right, exactly. We always
417. 14:20emphasize the importance of accounts.
418. 14:24Among accounts, as you are likely
419. 14:26familiar with now, there is the pension
420. 14:28savings account.
421. 14:30And there is the ISA account. In fact,
422. 14:32those who invest in dividend stocks
423. 14:35should make good use of all of these.
424. 14:38Because the dividend yield is high,
425. 14:40there are conditions when using these
426. 14:41accounts.
427. 14:43For pension savings, you must not
428. 14:44withdraw until age 55. For ISA, you must
429. 14:47hold it for at least 3 years.
430. 14:49There are criteria like these, and since
431. 14:51meeting them allows you to save on taxes
432. 14:53when receiving dividends, you really
433. 14:54need to pay close attention to your
434. 14:56accounts when investing in dividend
435. 14:57stocks.
436. 14:59But the problem is, unfortunately, you
437. 15:01cannot invest in this through such
438. 15:03accounts. However, there are replicas of
439. 15:06the same thing created in Korea. You can
440. 15:09actually invest in those through this
441. 15:11account.
442. 15:12So, if you search for "US Dividend Dow
443. 15:17Jones" under TIGER or KODEX, those
444. 15:20products will come up.
445. 15:25Since these are Korean-listed products
446. 15:28that replicate SCHD, you can invest in
447. 15:31them and receive benefits while doing so
448. 15:34.
449. 15:35I think you can look at it that way. CEO
450. 15:37, you explained high-dividend stocks
451. 15:39earlier, but what about Samsung and
452. 15:41Hynix this time?
453. 15:42>> I hear they pay out huge dividends, so
454. 15:44why aren't they included?
455. 15:45Ah, regarding the domestic demand we
456. 15:47discussed earlier, the opposite of
457. 15:49domestic demand is exports. The opposite
458. 15:52of domestic demand is exports.
459. 15:53While doing well in exports is a great
460. 15:55thing, to succeed in exports, other
461. 15:57countries 'economies must be strong and
462. 15:59the demand for semiconductors must also
463. 16:01be high.
464. 16:02And currently, the demand for
465. 16:03semiconductors is incredibly strong. It
466. 16:05will likely be good next year as well.
467. 16:06But will it still be good in ten years?
468. 16:08When I think about whether it will
469. 16:09remain this good for ten years, I start
470. 16:11to have some concerns. That’s because,
471. 16:13in any case, this sector is highly
472. 16:14sensitive to the economy. It is
473. 16:16sensitive to economic cycles. It is also
474. 16:18sensitive to demand, which is why we
475. 16:20call it cyclical. There are times when
476. 16:21it's good and times when it's not,
477. 16:22repeating the cycle.
478. 16:24Because of this, since they aren't
479. 16:25domestic demand stocks and can't earn
480. 16:27money consistently, we can't yet assume
481. 16:29that dividends will be stable.
482. 16:32But what if Samsung and Hynix were to
483. 16:34say, "Hey, we're going to keep earning
484. 16:36plenty of money next year and the year
485. 16:37after, so we'll pay out generous
486. 16:39dividends."
487. 16:40If they spoke with such confidence, then
488. 16:42they could truly be classified as
489. 16:43dividend stocks.
490. 16:45At that point, I truly believe our stock
491. 16:47market would enter an incredibly massive
492. 16:49bull market.
493. 16:50That would be the day Samsung
494. 16:52Electronics and Hynix become like TSMC.
495. 16:55Right now, the PER of Samsung and Hynix
496. 16:58is not even five, while TSMC’s is over
497. 17:0020. Just from that alone, there is
498. 17:02potential for a four-fold increase.
499. 17:03So, while I believe this opportunity
500. 17:05will come someday, for now, the market
501. 17:07view on Samsung and Hynix is that
502. 17:09because they are cyclical, they make
503. 17:10money now but will eventually lose it
504. 17:12later.
505. 17:14Since these thoughts dominate the market
506. 17:16, that is the reason why Samsung and
507. 17:18Hynix cannot be categorized as dividend
508. 17:21stocks yet.
509. 17:22However, since they pay decent dividends
510. 17:24now and their stock prices have dropped
511. 17:25significantly, it would be good to
512. 17:27consider those factors when investing.
513. 17:29So, I’ve explained dividend stocks today
514. 17:31.
515. 17:33To sum it up, while you should look at
516. 17:36dividend yield—how much you get relative
517. 17:40to the stock price—the key is the
518. 17:42numerator: the earnings.
519. 17:45You need to invest in dividend stocks
520. 17:49based on whether those earnings are
521. 17:52consistent, not just hit-or-miss. I’ve
522. 17:56covered some ETFs and which accounts to
523. 18:00use, so I hope those investing in
524. 18:03dividends will actively use this
525. 18:06information. As mentioned earlier, when
526. 18:08comparing covered calls to dividend
527. 18:09stocks, the latter are like organic
528. 18:11products, which offer many more
529. 18:12advantages.
530. 18:14However, it would be best if you
531. 18:15considered the pros and cons when making
532. 18:17your investment decisions.
533. 18:19Alright, that wraps up today’s
534. 18:20discussion on dividend stock investing.
535. 18:21We’ll see you again next time. Thank you
536. 18:24.