Sarah Paine: The Iran War and the Future of American Power | Interview — Transcript

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1. 0:00They have no idea what to do. Don't
2. 0:02blame just Donald Trump because he's
3. 0:04just one person. You have a superpower.
4. 0:06You know what it is? It's shutting
5. 0:08Hormuz and hostaging the whole world
6. 0:10economy. It's going to be ugly. They've
7. 0:11been destroying um oil infrastructure
8. 0:14all over the Middle East, wrecked a
9. 0:16number of US bases. And then he's going
10. 0:18to throw some more bombs on on Iran. It
11. 0:21won't make a difference. The collateral
12. 0:23damage is mindblowing.
13. 0:26It's global. Uh there are a lot of
14. 0:28children who have been taken down in
15. 0:29this war. All the children of Gaza. I
16. 0:32think we're going to see nuclear
17. 0:34proliferation as a result of the Ukraine
18. 0:36war. Can't be a global power unless you
19. 0:39have friends. We've lost our privileged
20. 0:41position and Europe is going to become
21. 0:43stronger. The problem is uh there are
22. 0:46these faright basically fascist
23. 0:49movements. All it's not just the United
24. 0:51States. Europe has it as well. Bombing
25. 0:54Iran is incapable of achieving that
26. 0:56objective. I mean, you may want that
27. 0:58objective, but it's not feasible.
28. 1:03US is into a war with Iran. So, does it
29. 1:06know how to get out?
30. 1:09>> No. Next question.
31. 1:12No, it's going to be Iran that decides
32. 1:15under what terms ships are going to go
33. 1:16through Hormuz. And what's interesting
34. 1:18is that wasn't even a question before
35. 1:21this war,
36. 1:23right? And there was the
37. 1:26agreement that was negotiated by the EU
38. 1:29and the permanent members, all of them
39. 1:32of the UN Security Council. So that
40. 1:34includes us uh with the Obama
41. 1:36administration. Everyone agreed to it,
42. 1:38including Iran. And whatever's coming
43. 1:40out now is just so inferior to that. And
44. 1:42Trump dumped that one in his first
45. 1:44administration. Said he was going to get
46. 1:46something better. And the something
47. 1:48better was this war. Okay,
48. 1:52what a mess. It's called a pivotal error
49. 1:56and it's causing inflation globally and
50. 1:59uh what is it? We got shortages of
51. 2:01fertilizer that has implications to not
52. 2:03only prices but also whether people
53. 2:05starve if they don't get enough
54. 2:06fertilizer. And who knew what helium,
55. 2:08right? Apparently you need helium to
56. 2:10make computer chips.
57. 2:12And these things weren't in question
58. 2:15before this war.
59. 2:17And what do you suppose the value of the
60. 2:19object is for Iran in all of this?
61. 2:22Right? We've talked about value of the
62. 2:23object. How high do you suppose it is
63. 2:25for them?
64. 2:26>> Does US have an real iron strategy?
65. 2:31>> No, there's no strategy
66. 2:32>> or just a list of punishments.
67. 2:34>> They have no idea what to do. You can
68. 2:36watch it. Trump his tweets are
69. 2:38hilarious. Oh, we're going to put fees
70. 2:40on ships. No. Oh, no. We're not going to
71. 2:42put
72. 2:42>> So, this is only the list of
73. 2:43punishments.
74. 2:45I mean, and then he's going to throw
75. 2:46some more bombs on on Iran. It won't
76. 2:48make a difference and the war will keep
77. 2:50going on. And then they say, "Oh, the
78. 2:52war's over. The war never ended." When
79. 2:54you're throwing when you're bombing each
80. 2:57other, you're not having a ceasefire,
81. 2:59right? Cease fire means no one's firing
82. 3:01anything. If you're firing things, that
83. 3:03means closed the stray to hormos, right?
84. 3:07>> Who knows what the twisted logic is, but
85. 3:09here's the the the incontrovertible
86. 3:11story. Ships cannot freely go through
87. 3:14the straight of Hormuz, right? And no
88. 3:18one knows under what circumstances they
89. 3:20will get sunk
90. 3:22and or how much they have to pay Iran to
91. 3:26get through, whether they will get
92. 3:28through or won't get through. So maybe
93. 3:31some ships do get through. Uh it's not
94. 3:34um you're talking at massive cost. This
95. 3:36is not uh the free flow of trade
96. 3:38anymore. It's done. The question is uh
97. 3:44uh under what terms Iran would agree not
98. 3:48to stop sinking ships in and hormuz
99. 3:53because they can easily do it right
100. 3:55mines things from the shore
101. 3:59and then um they're spreading the pain
102. 4:01all over the Middle East by uh saying
103. 4:05hey we can wreck anything you have there
104. 4:07and now the United States is talking
105. 4:08about moving things further out of the
106. 4:10Middle East because we can't protect
107. 4:11them.
108. 4:12>> US killed Iran's supreme leader first
109. 4:16day. So,
110. 4:17>> what did they actually change?
111. 4:19>> Well, hold on. It was more than that.
112. 4:21Uh, so apparently Israel did the hit,
113. 4:23but we combined the intelligence. I
114. 4:25don't know the story, but so it kills
115. 4:27the Supreme Leader. The current leader,
116. 4:30his son, apparently suffered real
117. 4:32wounds. His wife's dead. It's a
118. 4:35sister-in-law and someone's a child.
119. 4:37He's lost numerous family members and
120. 4:40Iran has a revenge culture. It's just
121. 4:42part of their culture which is if
122. 4:44someone does unto you, you do exactly
123. 4:47you do the same thing back, right? So,
124. 4:50okay. And um they have long memories.
125. 4:53So, uh boy, if it if since we've decided
126. 4:56we can assassinate family family members
127. 4:59down to small children,
128. 5:01uh all of that's on the table probably.
129. 5:04So by doing this
130. 5:07uh who would do this? You're endangering
131. 5:09all of your own children, your
132. 5:11grandchildren's lives forever
133. 5:14for having done this. And what does it
134. 5:17solve? It's there was no question about
135. 5:20uh the things going through the straight
136. 5:22of Hormuz before this thing. And now
137. 5:24we've told the Iranians, you have a
138. 5:26superpower. You know what it is? It's
139. 5:28shutting Hormuz and hostaging the whole
140. 5:30whole world economy. They're never going
141. 5:33to forget this.
142. 5:34>> Nations spend fortunes protecting their
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176. 7:15plan. Now, back to Sara.
177. 7:18>> Does killing the man at the top ever
178. 7:21kill the system?
179. 7:22>> Uh, I don't believe so. And there's u
180. 7:25there's another thing. So, if you're in
181. 7:27a leader, so you haven't the other side
182. 7:31has an an unlimited objective against
183. 7:33you. They're going to personally kill
184. 7:34you and all family members. Also, they
185. 7:37aren't going to adhere to any deals
186. 7:39because we've watched and from both
187. 7:41sides cheat on deals. That's part of the
188. 7:42problem. Um, so you can't ever assume
189. 7:46they're not going to try to assassinate
190. 7:48you, right? So, what is it going to make
191. 7:50you do? You're going to play every card
192. 7:52you have.
193. 7:54It's going to be ugly. They've been
194. 7:55destroying um oil infrastructure all
195. 7:57over the Middle East. Uh they've
196. 8:00apparently wrecked a number of US bases.
197. 8:04Uh the United States um has monitoring
198. 8:09facilities and radars and things uh to
199. 8:14keep track of what's going on and
200. 8:16they've destroyed loads of these things.
201. 8:18Oh yeah, and then we've just been
202. 8:19incredibly wasteful on how we're using
203. 8:21the Patriot missiles because we're oh so
204. 8:24arrogant. This is Major Hegth who's
205. 8:26running the department of the beardless
206. 8:28department of war that's going to make
207. 8:29America great again. And now he's going
208. 8:31to measure testosterone levels to see if
209. 8:33that's the problem. Who knows? But um so
210. 8:37you got him
211. 8:39uh thinking, how is this? It's it's made
212. 8:43our situation so much worse. And there's
213. 8:47big ships can indeed close narrow seas.
214. 8:50They cannot open them. So he thinks he's
215. 8:52going to open the straight of Hormuz.
216. 8:54What are you going to do? Convoy? You're
217. 8:55going to lose a lot of ships on convoys.
218. 8:57Go study the Battle of Atlantic. A lot
219. 8:58of merchant shipping and convoy ships
220. 9:00went down. It wasn't We did win the
221. 9:03Battle of Atlantic, but it wasn't cheap
222. 9:04and it went on a long time.
223. 9:06>> What would victory over Iran actually
224. 9:09mean?
225. 9:12Well, I think what they thought was that
226. 9:16uh you want them to stop doing what you
227. 9:19consider to be a malign things of
228. 9:22destabilizing parts of uh the Middle
229. 9:24East and uh wanting to uh destroy
230. 9:28Israel. But uh bombing Iran is incapable
231. 9:32of achieving that objective. I mean you
232. 9:34may want that objective but it's not
233. 9:36feasible. There are certain things in
234. 9:39this world. You may want them all. You
235. 9:41may we may want everyone to be
236. 9:43billionaires. It's not feasible.
237. 9:45So, uh, wanting Iran not to hate you,
238. 9:50uh, that's probably not feasible. And if
239. 9:52you bomb them, they probably are, it's
240. 9:54not going to be they're going to hate
241. 9:55you less, they're probably going to hate
242. 9:56you more. So, it's choosing a militarily
243. 10:01uh, well, just an unfeasible objective.
244. 10:04And uh the collateral damage is
245. 10:07mindblowing.
246. 10:09It's global. And this is entirely the
247. 10:11fault of the Republican party of the
248. 10:14United States. And I haven't been
249. 10:15partisan in my life. I've never seen uh
250. 10:19Americans be this incompetent in my
251. 10:21entire life where uh it's the
252. 10:25Republicans own the judiciary, the
253. 10:27legislative branch, and the White House,
254. 10:30and Trump wants to put in incompetent
255. 10:33appointees, and they could have denied
256. 10:35him these people like Hegathth, who is
257. 10:37historically not qualified for the job.
258. 10:40Put him in anyway, and then you get
259. 10:42these consequences. They own it. Is the
260. 10:44West romantizing
261. 10:46a democratic Iran?
262. 10:48>> No. No, don't. The West isn't
263. 10:50romanticizing anything. I think
264. 10:52Europeans are looking at this and
265. 10:53they're appalled. This is one of the
266. 10:56stupidest things the United States has
267. 10:57ever come up with.
268. 10:58>> Would the regime's collapse bring
269. 11:00democracy or chaos?
270. 11:02>> Probably chaos. But no, no, it's a
271. 11:06democracy.
272. 11:07Again, you know, in Poland, it's the
273. 11:09work of centuries.
274. 11:11It takes a it takes habits of mind,
275. 11:14right, of how you treat each other, how
276. 11:16you settle differences. Do you settle
277. 11:18differences by killing someone really
278. 11:19fast? Can Iran ever trust a deal with us
279. 11:23again?
280. 11:25>> Uh, I don't think anyone trusts anything
281. 11:27with this administration. We don't
282. 11:28enforce the laws of the land in our own
283. 11:30country, let alone things with other
284. 11:31people. I mean, we're violating the
285. 11:34terms of our constitution. It's
286. 11:37incredible what's going on. We have
287. 11:40It's mind-blowing the the uh the rules
288. 11:42that are being broken. And again, the
289. 11:45Republican Party of the United States
290. 11:47owns this.
291. 11:49>> It's entirely their fault.
292. 11:51>> The question is,
293. 11:52>> don't blame just Donald Trump because
294. 11:54he's just one person even though he
295. 11:56comes with a really um pernitious
296. 11:58family.
297. 11:59>> The question is also if the US can trust
298. 12:02deal with the Iran.
299. 12:03>> No, I don't think so. But see what what
300. 12:06the Obama it was the EU the five
301. 12:09permanent members of the of the UN that
302. 12:11means Russia, China and the United
303. 12:13States were all on board along with
304. 12:14England and France uh EU and Iran with
305. 12:18the Obama uh deal and what that one had
306. 12:22all sorts of things Iran needed to do
307. 12:25and then it had inspections and it was
308. 12:28going to reduce sanctions in tandem with
309. 12:31the inspections going well and did it
310. 12:34solve Iran? No. But compared to what's
311. 12:38going on now, it was a bargain. And
312. 12:40understand, it's what's feasible and
313. 12:43what's not. It's really important. All
314. 12:45right. Here's another concept. Situation
315. 12:47versus um a problem. A problem you can
316. 12:50solve. A situation uh lacks a feasible
317. 12:54solution. So if there is no feasible
318. 12:56solution, you need to manage it. And so
319. 12:58the United States is trying to treat a
320. 13:00country of 90 million people, which is
321. 13:02Iran, like a something you can solve.
322. 13:05You can't. You have to manage it. And
323. 13:07China is even more so at 1.4 billion.
324. 13:09Don't try solving China. It won't work.
325. 13:11Well,
326. 13:12>> Iran's process collapse and its leader
327. 13:15is dead. Yet the regime still stands. So
328. 13:17what actually holds it up?
329. 13:20>> I don't know. I'm not an expert on Iran,
330. 13:22but uh presumably the current theocracy
331. 13:25that's there has got a very robust um
332. 13:28connections with intelligence and army
333. 13:30and and we've seen them. They they shoot
334. 13:32anyone who gets in their way. It's a
335. 13:34reprehensible regime, but um it's
336. 13:38clearly uh quite well entrenched in
337. 13:40power.
338. 13:41>> What's about Israel? What seats the
339. 13:44limits of this war? I I mean that isn't
340. 13:48that the problem with Israel would like
341. 13:50to have people trying to
342. 13:54it's had neighbors who historically want
343. 13:56to erase it right and not allow it to
344. 13:59exist as a state and Israelis for
345. 14:02excellent reasons find that intolerable
346. 14:05but again changing what other people
347. 14:07think uh it's a question of whether
348. 14:09Israel's military means actually change
349. 14:13what they think or they make them think
350. 14:15it even more deeply.
351. 14:16Does Israel think this war is finished?
352. 14:20>> I have no idea about Israel, what Israel
353. 14:22thinks. Truly, I have no expertise on
354. 14:25Israel whatsoever. But um the ru the war
355. 14:27is boomeranging because it never used to
356. 14:30be in the United States a US uh a
357. 14:33support for Israel was just
358. 14:34unquestioning for decades and decades
359. 14:36and decades. Now it's very much
360. 14:38questioned. This is uh this is new.
361. 14:42>> Watching who gets bump and who doesn't.
362. 14:44Well, it's it has to do with killing all
363. 14:46sorts of uh there are a lot of children
364. 14:49who've been taken down in this war. All
365. 14:52the children of Gaza and trying to do um
366. 14:55an ethnic cleanse in Gaza. It's awful.
367. 14:59>> Who wouldn't every country want
368. 15:02a nuclear weapon?
369. 15:04>> I I think we're going to see nuclear
370. 15:06proliferation as a result of the Ukraine
371. 15:08war. And uh yeah, that if you have one,
372. 15:12people like North Korea, people aren't
373. 15:14invading North Korea even though it's a
374. 15:17smaller place cuz they have a nuclear
375. 15:19weapon. It's like why would you invade
376. 15:20there? It's called leave them alone. Let
377. 15:22them live their own miserable lives.
378. 15:23They want to be miserable. Have fun. Go
379. 15:25enjoy being North Korean.
380. 15:27>> US defense Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan,
381. 15:33Israel, and the Gulf at once. So what's
382. 15:39happened on the day two wars start
383. 15:42together?
384. 15:43>> Wait a second. So what why did you list
385. 15:45all those places? What do they have in
386. 15:47common?
387. 15:47>> This the list of you know uh the places
388. 15:51protected by the United States.
389. 15:53>> Okay. Well, um I think the protections
390. 15:56haven't been good enough for people in
391. 15:58the Middle East, right? I mean, I I
392. 16:01think if you're in the United Arab
393. 16:04Emirates or Bahrain or Kuwait, you're
394. 16:06going this isn't quite enough.
395. 16:08>> Which promise does American break first?
396. 16:11>> But the Trump breaks all promises.
397. 16:14That's what's wrong with him. He doesn't
398. 16:16follow any rules. He's profoundly
399. 16:19dangerous to the United States. He's
400. 16:22also incompetent. And the reason I I'm
401. 16:24choosing my words carefully, look at how
402. 16:27this world war plays out. It is
403. 16:29incompetent.
404. 16:31General Mattis and General Kelly, who
405. 16:34worked for the first Trump
406. 16:35administration, there's no way on this
407. 16:37planet that they would have uh uh
408. 16:40allowed this war to go on. There would
409. 16:42have been some really highprofile
410. 16:44resignation or something going on,
411. 16:46putting enormous pressure of don't do
412. 16:48this.
413. 16:49But hey, we got Major Hegsth who doesn't
414. 16:52know he's gonna the guy who's good on
415. 16:54cutting beards. Which US is the
416. 16:59exception? The super power of the last
417. 17:04eight years or the quiet republic of the
418. 17:09150 years before Americans would have
419. 17:12preferred the former. Um but after World
420. 17:16War I and World War II, I think the
421. 17:18conclusion was that if you don't deal
422. 17:20with problems far away, they come get
423. 17:22you at home. No, we're having a crisis
424. 17:25in democracy in the United States right
425. 17:27now where we have a party in power of
426. 17:30the Republicans who are trying to change
427. 17:33gerrymandering. They're trying to change
428. 17:35uh all all the electoral rules and how
429. 17:38they're going to count votes to
430. 17:39guarantee that they win. Not an actual
431. 17:42majority, but whatever gets counted
432. 17:45there. And they're trying to rig the the
433. 17:47uh elections.
434. 17:49And it's
435. 17:52uh it's unbelievable what's going on.
436. 17:55>> America first was a real move movement.
437. 17:58Who were they?
438. 18:00>> I don't know. I know about the the
439. 18:02America Firsters that I know about
440. 18:04because I'm not an American historian.
441. 18:06The ones I know about are uh come into
442. 18:09play in the 1930s.
443. 18:12And that group uh was going back to this
444. 18:15isolationist tradition and saying look
445. 18:18let's just forget about these other
446. 18:19problems and they're playing halfcourt
447. 18:22tennis and they're talking about we need
448. 18:24to save the US economy in the Great
449. 18:26Depression and they think the solution
450. 18:28is we do tariffs and of course if you
451. 18:31realize well what do you suppose the
452. 18:32other side's going to do? You suppose
453. 18:33they're going to sit there and just pay
454. 18:34the tariffs? No. They're going to do the
455. 18:37same thing to you and then you're going
456. 18:39to ruin trade globally. Brilliant. Not.
457. 18:43It doesn't work. It's a bad strategy.
458. 18:46And we're trying it again. It's a bad
459. 18:47strategy.
460. 18:48>> And what killed it?
461. 18:50>> What killed it?
462. 18:51>> Yeah.
463. 18:52>> Uh the Great Depression and then World
464. 18:55War II
465. 18:56because uh when you do the tariff war,
466. 18:59you're making people desperate globally,
467. 19:03right? If they're already desperate
468. 19:04because of the depression, you're making
469. 19:06the depression worse. So you got people
470. 19:07who are much poorer than you are, so
471. 19:09they're more desperate. And then they're
472. 19:10going to tend. These are hot house
473. 19:12conditions for dictators like Hitler to
474. 19:13come to power and or the Japanese
475. 19:15militarists.
476. 19:16>> So what brought the argument back? Oh,
477. 19:20um the argument back I think after it's
478. 19:23again this brilliant generation that
479. 19:24lived through it and they're analyzing
480. 19:26like what happened and it's a conclusion
481. 19:30that you know we need to work together
482. 19:33and that actually if we make instead of
483. 19:37people like now like to talk about as
484. 19:39sacrifices like I'm giving things up no
485. 19:41making major investments in each other
486. 19:44instead of looking at as sacrifices as
487. 19:46investments uh we're all going to
488. 19:48prosper together it's going to be this
489. 19:49massive win-win and it was this is the
490. 19:52inner war period. They they set the
491. 19:54institutional foundation so it could
492. 19:56happen. This brilliant group of people
493. 19:59and then the question is do people
494. 20:00require searing life experience in order
495. 20:03to become wise? Do we require uh Ukraine
496. 20:07style warfare on each of our home
497. 20:09countries for us to become wise? Well,
498. 20:11if that's the case, probably won't
499. 20:13survive because we'll get a nuclear war
500. 20:14and that'll be it. Has America ever been
501. 20:17this divided and still run a foreign
502. 20:21policy?
503. 20:24>> Well, yeah, but you're talking about uh
504. 20:26we've been divided um all sorts of times
505. 20:29and we were divided in the McCarthy era.
506. 20:31We were divided through the Vietnam War,
507. 20:33but what's different is um there were
508. 20:35agreement on both parties to play by the
509. 20:38electoral rules. and um when you lost an
510. 20:42election, you uh congratulated the
511. 20:44winner and you said um you know, I'll
512. 20:47run the next time. Whereas you have
513. 20:49Trump denying he lost the first
514. 20:50election. He won't show up at Biden's
515. 20:52inauguration. Who does that, right?
516. 20:56Americans love to play sports, right?
517. 20:58And part of sports is sportsmanship,
518. 21:01right? Um so your football team loses,
519. 21:03what are you going to do? go run off the
520. 21:05the field and go, I don't know, I'll
521. 21:08never play again. What is this?
522. 21:10>> Who do allies do while America argues
523. 21:14with itself?
524. 21:16>> What are they doing? They're organizing.
525. 21:18They're organizing without the United
526. 21:20States. I've told you we're going to
527. 21:21lose our privile we've lost our
528. 21:23privilege uh position in the
529. 21:25international system. And Europe is
530. 21:27going to become stronger as it organizes
531. 21:30because it has to. It's facing an
532. 21:31existential threat with Putin. the guy
533. 21:34um is busy destabilizing everybody uh
534. 21:37blowing up warehouses and doing all
535. 21:39sorts of crazy stuff. Who needs this?
536. 21:41>> What's about Europe? Europe talks about
537. 21:43strategic autonomy but US general steel
538. 21:48command NATO. So it's Europe a power or
539. 21:52protectorate a little bit for United
540. 21:55States.
541. 21:56>> Well, these institutions are in flux. So
542. 22:00um that's why I'm telling you to watch
543. 22:01elections in the United States. Is this
544. 22:02a long-term thing? Is this what the
545. 22:04United States is becoming? A malign uh
546. 22:07continental power where you've got a
547. 22:09grifter class that can u monopolize all
548. 22:12the money for themselves and uh do
549. 22:15whatever. Is that what the United States
550. 22:16is? And oh, by the way, we're killing
551. 22:18off our scientific research by fooling
552. 22:20around with federal funding on grants
553. 22:23and we want to politicize that. Uh the
554. 22:25United States was a great power uh a
555. 22:29great economic power in large part. It
556. 22:31has to do with being at the head of
557. 22:32technologies. Well, if you get rid of
558. 22:34all your scientists, you won't be at the
559. 22:36head of anything. But it we'll see
560. 22:38whether these things um continue or not.
561. 22:42But currently where the United States is
562. 22:44in um on its national suicide. I I quote
563. 22:48this guy many times. Uh it's uh Toinby
564. 22:52who was a very fine British historian of
565. 22:55the west of the 20th century who said
566. 22:56civilizations do not die by murder like
567. 22:59other people killing them but by
568. 23:01suicide. It's all the stupid stuff they
569. 23:03do. Well, we're deep into stupid stuff
570. 23:05in the United States right now.
571. 23:07>> What would Europe have to give up to
572. 23:10grow up? Poland is example of growth,
573. 23:14but not Europe itself. Well, isn't um
574. 23:17the story is that uh the Baltic states,
575. 23:23what is it? It's the Baltic Nordic a are
576. 23:26some very thoughtful members of Europe.
577. 23:29I I also suspect it the Dutch are as
578. 23:32well, the Netherlands, uh Poland and uh
579. 23:36nuclear weapon.
580. 23:38>> No, no, I'm talking about people who are
581. 23:39thinking deeply about what the security
582. 23:41architecture needs to be. in Germany has
583. 23:44gotten on board more recently of
584. 23:46starting to think whoa uh okay um and
585. 23:49thinking what's going to go forward and
586. 23:52you have ample people to do this and oh
587. 23:54Germany is liberated in the sense that
588. 23:58in the 20th century Germany couldn't be
589. 24:00at the forefront of foreign policy
590. 24:02because of World War II right it wore
591. 24:05the crown of infamy well Vladimir Putin
592. 24:08has taken the crown of infamy and
593. 24:10Russians shall wear it going forward
594. 24:12this frees up Germany to take a leading
595. 24:14role.
596. 24:15>> Why Europe is so addicted to United
597. 24:17States? Because you know France has
598. 24:19nuclear weapon it made sure and Germany
599. 24:22has money it made spent. So why is
600. 24:25Europe's defense still made in US
601. 24:29>> but wait you're talking about uh the
602. 24:30United States uh went uh rogue very
603. 24:33recently and so it takes time to change
604. 24:37around your investments. It's very
605. 24:39recent uh that deciding uh the really
606. 24:44crazy decisions have come in the second
607. 24:46Trump administration, not the first one.
608. 24:48In the first one, there were some they
609. 24:50were his cabinet appointments were not
610. 24:53univer uniformly incompetent. Now we got
611. 24:55a whole bunch of incompetent people in
612. 24:57the cabinet who truly don't know what
613. 24:59they're doing. It's the rest the
614. 25:01Rasputin have taken over the cabinet.
615. 25:05Uh, and so it's going to take Europe a
616. 25:08time. It'll be over the next decade
617. 25:10where you'll see massive changes.
618. 25:12>> Could a European
619. 25:14army ever agree on whom to fight?
620. 25:19>> I have no idea. But I think the story is
621. 25:20you don't want to be fighting, but you
622. 25:22want to um have uh fine enough air
623. 25:25defenses and other things uh in order to
624. 25:28protect yourself from Russia, right?
625. 25:30China's a long way away. I mean, what
626. 25:32China's going to do to you is probably
627. 25:33nothing. I mean, you'll be squabbling
628. 25:35about things. So, it's Russia military
629. 25:37defenses for that. And then you're going
630. 25:39to be using non-military instruments of
631. 25:42power to deal with others. That's where
632. 25:44sanctions are important because if you
633. 25:46have someone who just cannot behave, you
634. 25:49give them a timeout from the world order
635. 25:50and say you can't trade with us on equal
636. 25:52terms and then the compounding effects
637. 25:56of bad choices ruin them long term. Do
638. 26:00you really believe that American
639. 26:02soldiers would really die for war? So,
640. 26:06>> well actually a lot of American soldiers
641. 26:08died to build democracy. That's what
642. 26:11they thought. I had the students in my
643. 26:13class uh for Afghanistan
644. 26:16and Iraq. So, but we aren't there now.
645. 26:20And and there was um a an issue with
646. 26:25those two countries. They didn't um pass
647. 26:28what I call the son-in-law test. And the
648. 26:31son-in-law test is if you send your
649. 26:33troops to wherever
650. 26:35uh will and they want to marry some of
651. 26:38the
652. 26:38>> local
653. 26:39>> troops troops troops if you send them
654. 26:41wherever and they're fighting wherever.
655. 26:43Well, the people in the country in
656. 26:45question welcome them as son-in-laws if
657. 26:48they marry their daughters.
658. 26:50uh many US servicemen who went to Japan,
659. 26:53Korea, Vietnam, they brought back wives,
660. 26:57right? All over Europe, you know this, I
661. 27:00mean just all kinds of people married,
662. 27:02but not in Iraq and not in Afghanistan.
663. 27:05So those two places don't fall uh pass
664. 27:08the uh in-law test, which is a a problem
665. 27:11for of us even being involved there
666. 27:13deeply. How does a country like Poland
667. 27:17make sure of it
668. 27:18>> of the United States? Well, you aren't
669. 27:20sure of it. That's the problem right
670. 27:22now, isn't it? Uh, no one's sure of it.
671. 27:24I'm American and I don't know what's
672. 27:26going on in Washington. It seems crazy.
673. 27:28I mean, really, we we're arguing about a
674. 27:30reflecting pool.
675. 27:31>> So, from the another side, should Poland
676. 27:35have its own nuclear weapons?
677. 27:39>> Um, it's not a question of should. I
678. 27:42think the story is if trends continue
679. 27:44Poland will
680. 27:46or Germany will somebody will uh that uh
681. 27:49Europe uh will have robust nuclear
682. 27:52weapons if things don't sort themselves
683. 27:55out for precisely the reasons it's not
684. 27:58should it's just if this is the world
685. 28:00that we're in and Europe has the
686. 28:02technology to do it it's expensive but
687. 28:04you have the ability
688. 28:05>> Germany's rearming should Poland
689. 28:08celebrate or worry
690. 28:11>> are you going to need Germany to rearm.
691. 28:13What are you going to make it as Poland
692. 28:14by yourself? But I think the problem is
693. 28:18uh there are these faright basically
694. 28:21fascist movements all it's not just the
695. 28:23United States. Europe has it as well.
696. 28:26It's very important uh that they do not
697. 28:29take power and because they'll ruin
698. 28:32their own countries.
699. 28:33>> Poland spends more of its economy on
700. 28:36defense than US does.
701. 28:39>> Percentage. Yeah.
702. 28:40>> Yeah. So is the student overtaking the
703. 28:43teacher?
704. 28:43>> Well, Bismar said that fools, idiots,
705. 28:46and drunk fools drunkards in the United
706. 28:49States. But uh Charles de Gaulle had
707. 28:51another comment about the United States.
708. 28:53If only we had that anyone with that
709. 28:55kind of strategic location. We have
710. 28:57these huge oceans. No one can get to it.
711. 28:59Isn't that great? Except um our security
712. 29:02paradigm only works as long as Mexico
713. 29:05and Canada are friends. And why we're
714. 29:07being so nasty to them, I will never
715. 29:10understand.
716. 29:12>> Can America stay a global power if
717. 29:14Americans no longer want to pay for
718. 29:16this?
719. 29:18>> No. But it's also you can't be a global
720. 29:20power
721. 29:22uh unless you have friends.
722. 29:24>> Friends?
723. 29:25>> Yeah. You can't be a global power. How
724. 29:27are you going to be global? Why is the
725. 29:28United States You think the United
726. 29:30States is a global power? Well, doesn't
727. 29:31it have basing all over the world? And
728. 29:34these people quite often invite us to
729. 29:36have bases, right? And many of them like
730. 29:38in Europe complaining about us
731. 29:39threatening to pull people out of bases,
732. 29:41right? It's not like complaining like
733. 29:43would you would you want Russia to do a
734. 29:45base in Poland? How likely would that
735. 29:48be? Zero.
736. 29:48>> Zero.
737. 29:49>> Right? But in the United States, there
738. 29:51was a thought of people benefiting from
739. 29:53this system. So um Americans
740. 29:58uh the United States is a global power
741. 30:00to the extent that other people accept
742. 30:02it as such and find it to be a winwin.
743. 30:05>> So what replaces American leadership if
744. 30:08America stepped back. Well, but the
745. 30:13greatest generation built a really
746. 30:15important set of institutions because
747. 30:17after World War II there were hardly any
748. 30:19institutions now. And then what has been
749. 30:22built since then is very extensive set
750. 30:24of institutions where um the medium
751. 30:27powers have more than enough ability to
752. 30:29use these institutions to organize
753. 30:32things the way they want to organize
754. 30:34things. And the world is mostly
755. 30:36medium-sized powers. So go have at it.
756. 30:38Make a better world order. Truman tried
757. 30:41to buy Greenland in 1946.
758. 30:44>> Oh, what? How did that work? He must
759. 30:46have proposed it. And then I'm presuming
760. 30:48Denmark said no.
761. 30:49>> So why does that island keep tempting
762. 30:53Americans?
763. 30:54>> Oh, this is just Trump, but he's a
764. 30:55continentalist. He wants to have
765. 30:56territory. I have no idea. He thinks
766. 30:58he's got a mineral deal for his
767. 31:00reprehensible family.
768. 31:02>> Is the Arctic the next front line?
769. 31:04>> I have no idea what they're trying to
770. 31:06do. Um, the man is scenile.
771. 31:09um and uh he's not fit for office. Look,
772. 31:14you've never seen any world leader
773. 31:16behave the way he is, who the way he's
774. 31:18he's behaving. None of it makes any
775. 31:20sense.