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Russian Shock Geran Daylight Strike Hits Kiev Railway; Dobropilia Cauldron; Trump Zelensky Talk Flop — Transcript

by Alexander Mercouris · 8,380 words · 1,782 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Good day. Today is Wednesday, 23rd
0:03September 2026,
0:05and I'm going to say straight away that
0:07last night and this morning we have
0:11begun to see, or we are seeing in
0:15Ukraine, over the skies over Ukraine
0:18something happened on a scale
0:22which has never happened before
0:25and which has been mostly been
0:26astonishing.
0:28And that is that the Russians are
0:31conducting and I'll continue to conduct,
0:33even as I'm making this program a
0:36massive drone attack on Kyiv.
0:39So far as I am aware no missiles have
0:44actually been used.
0:46Hundreds of Geran 4
0:50and Geran 5 drones, I suspect mostly
0:53Geran 4 drones, since we're talking
0:55about Kyiv are
0:58in the skies, having in the skies over
1:00Kyiv.
1:01And lots of them have been hitting
1:04targets. But what has made this
1:06particular attack
1:08really remarkable is is not just its
1:11scale
1:13um with
1:15drones being used, as I said, in their
1:17hundreds
1:19but the fact that the greater part of
1:21this attack
1:23has been taking place in daylight
1:27throughout the daylight hours.
1:30The Russians have conducted drone
1:33attacks on Kyiv during the daylight
1:36hours
1:38on other occasions.
1:40They did so, for example um
1:43over the course of the summer
1:45when they first began their drone and
1:48missile offensives.
1:50At that time
1:52I pointed out that the Russians were
1:55conducting drone strikes 24/7
1:58on Kiev a tactic clearly intended to
2:03exhaust the Ukrainian defenders.
2:06But
2:08I don't recall a situation
2:12where the bulk of the drone strike
2:15has taken place over Kiev during the
2:19day.
2:20And well, there are all kinds of
2:23explanations being floated around for
2:26this.
2:28One, which is undoubtedly true
2:32is that the attack
2:35has exposed
2:37the lack of air defenses in Kiev
2:41and the fact that Ukrainian claims to
2:44have shot down hundreds of Russian
2:46drones in any particular strike are
2:50almost certainly propaganda and fiction.
2:54One of the interesting and important
2:57facts about this particular latest drone
3:00attack
3:01is the fact that Ukrainian air defenses
3:06and this is as it is happening during
3:07the day
3:08have been mostly invisible.
3:11The second
3:13is that
3:15we see that the Russians have been able
3:19to strike targets across Kiev
3:22gasoline stations and that kind of
3:25thing.
3:26And this time the Ukrainians have not
3:29been able to conceal the extent of the
3:32damage as it is easier for them to do
3:36during the night.
3:38That is a second thing.
3:41And the third
3:42is that the Russians carried out this
3:45attack during the day mostly during the
3:48day in order to send a message
3:52to the Western powers,
3:54but first and foremost to the United
3:57States, to Donald Trump himself.
4:01Now, I'm going to say here, I express my
4:03own opinion,
4:04I think that there is very little,
4:08all but nothing in fact, in the first
4:11two explanations,
4:12but there might be some
4:14force in the third.
4:16If we are talking about exposing the
4:19fact that Kiev is without air defenses
4:22and demonstrating to people in Kiev and
4:25across Ukraine
4:28the amount of damage that Russian drone
4:30strikes do,
4:32well,
4:33I think that these factors
4:37hardly enter into Russian calculations.
4:42The Russians know
4:46pretty well
4:47what the state of the air defense is in
4:50Kiev is.
4:52Why should they care
4:54what the Ukrainians
4:57tell their own people
4:58and the West about it?
5:01If the Ukrainians want to pretend that
5:04the air defense picture in Kiev is
5:06better than it really is, that the
5:08Ukrainians are shooting down more drones
5:12than they really are, well, so be it. I
5:15don't see that this is a matter that
5:18will trouble the Russians very much. The
5:21more important thing for them is that
5:24their drones are getting through and are
5:27successfully hitting targets.
5:30The second view about demoralizing the
5:34population of Ukraine and of Kiev in
5:36particular by exposing the damage done
5:41by the strikes during the day,
5:44well, on the surface, it might have some
5:47weight.
5:48But then, by now, most residents in Kyiv
5:53must be aware of the extent of the
5:56damage that Russian drone strikes do, at
6:00least to some level.
6:02And I can't imagine
6:04that the Russians would plan an entire
6:08drone attack
6:10in order to achieve that sort of
6:13outcome. It really doesn't make much
6:16sense to me based upon what I know of
6:21the way in which the Russians conduct
6:23war.
6:25Now, I will come in a moment
6:27to
6:28whatever message it is that the Russians
6:31might be trying to give the Americans
6:33and to the Europeans. But I
6:36believe that there is a very much more
6:38straightforward explanation
6:41of why this particular attack was
6:43carried out
6:45mostly during the day.
6:48As I have pointed out now on numerous
6:51occasions,
6:52Russian drones
6:54Geran-4s, Geran-5s,
6:57even to some extent Geran-2s, now carry
7:02electro-optical sensors. In other words,
7:06they're guided onto their targets by
7:10Russian drone operators based somewhere
7:14in Russia.
7:16Now, probably
7:18they don't the operators don't control
7:21the drones
7:23all the way
7:24until they reach the target.
7:27After the drones have taken off from
7:29Russia, most of the journey they follow
7:33a pre-programmed trajectory.
7:36Then they arrive in the area of the
7:40target.
7:41At that point, the ground controller
7:44takes over. The cameras are deployed.
7:48They observe the
7:51positions
7:53that the ground controllers think would
7:56be suitable to attack.
7:59Probably AI at various points plays a
8:03significant role in this process, but I
8:06have no doubt that these are not fully
8:08autonomous drones and that ground
8:11controllers
8:13>> [snorts]
8:13>> in Russia to some extent guide what they
8:17do.
8:18And despite the fact that there are such
8:20things nowadays as thermal imaging
8:23cameras and that sort of thing,
8:27I suspect that accuracy is always going
8:31to be better in daylight than it is
8:34going to be at night.
8:36And the Russians
8:38conducting precise targets on objects
8:43like gasoline stations want to make sure
8:47that the drones hit the targets rather
8:50than do damage to residential buildings
8:54and that sort of thing, which putting
8:58aside humanitarian
9:00and ethical considerations
9:03would be politically inconvenient and
9:06embarrassing.
9:08By now,
9:09given the fact that Ukrainian air
9:12defenses have to all intents and
9:14purposes broken down,
9:16especially over Kiev itself,
9:21by now, the Russians
9:23can feel confident
9:25that if they attack Kiev with their
9:28drones
9:30in daylight,
9:32most of the drones or enough of the
9:34drones will get through
9:36that the air defenses
9:39are so fragmented
9:41that they will not be able to intercept
9:45enough of the drones
9:47to do
9:49the damage that the Russians require
9:53and at the same time
9:55the benefits for the Russians of higher
9:58accuracy from
10:01an attack of this kind ought to be
10:06obvious.
10:07One should not look for in this war
10:09especially political
10:12reasoning to explain Russian military
10:15actions when there are perfectly obvious
10:18military explanations for what the
10:21Russians are doing.
10:23Now, there is the third
10:25point here
10:26about
10:28conveying a message to the Americans
10:32to Donald Trump in particular
10:34>> [snorts]
10:35>> and perhaps to the Europeans, too.
10:39And here I'm going to make
10:41an observation which I've made before
10:44and which um I think gets truer by the
10:49day.
10:50This is that Europe
10:52is now going through a period of panic
10:56and hysteria
10:58which in my
11:01experience
11:02both lifetime
11:04and historical
11:07is ex- is unprecedented.
11:11Perhaps
11:12for a few brief days during the Cuban
11:15Missile Crisis in 1962
11:19fear there might have been fear
11:22and hysteria at something
11:25of the same level.
11:27I don't know.
11:29I was alive in 1962
11:32but I was a baby, so I don't remember.
11:37Um
11:38There was of course the year before
11:40there was also the Berlin crisis in
11:411961,
11:44when the Berlin Wall was built. And
11:46again, there was an enormous amount of
11:48panic and hysteria, especially in
11:50Germany, but perhaps also mostly
11:55across Europe.
11:56But
11:57as happened with the Cuban missile
12:00crisis, that panic and hysteria quickly
12:05abated.
12:07To those of us who have studied the
12:11history of the first and second World
12:14Wars,
12:16I could say with confidence
12:18that neither in 1914
12:23nor in 1939
12:26did the same level of hysteria and panic
12:31grip
12:32the European political leaderships as
12:35what we are seeing today.
12:38In 1914,
12:40the crisis evolved in a very complicated
12:43way, which is still not fully
12:45understood, and it is still not quite
12:48understood how much
12:51the leaders of that time
12:55truly understood about what was
12:57happening.
12:59If you're talking about the wider
13:00population
13:02of Europe,
13:04and I have spoken in the past to people
13:09who were there
13:11both
13:12in some of the European governments, the
13:15Greek government in particular in 1914,
13:18and other governments, too, the British.
13:22Mhm. Um I
13:25get the sense
13:27that the wider populations
13:30in Europe
13:32did not understand
13:34that war was imminent
13:37until practically the moment when it
13:39started. Just [snorts] to say.
13:42And if we're talking about 1939,
13:46the period in August,
13:49early September 1939,
13:52where here I've spoken to many, many
13:54people and I can say again with
13:57confidence
13:59that nowhere in Europe
14:01was the the prolonged period of hysteria
14:05that we're seeing now.
14:07Because
14:09though fear of Europe was fear of war in
14:12Europe was indeed very deep and very,
14:16very great,
14:18the psychology
14:20and the experience of people at that
14:23time was completely different from which
14:27what it is today. So, there is panic and
14:31hysteria
14:32and war fever across Europe. My own
14:36view, and I've already expressed it
14:39several times in various programs, is
14:42that it comes from a gradual dawning
14:46understanding
14:48amongst European governments
14:51that the war in Ukraine is being lost.
14:57It's not just a case
14:59anymore
15:01of the Russians winning some battles in
15:03Donbas and breaking through at a place
15:05like Avdiivka and capturing a town like
15:09Saint Konstantinovka
15:11or Gulyaipole.
15:12Suddenly there is
15:16an understanding
15:18with the failure of Ukraine's
15:21own drone
15:24and with a cataclysmic failure or
15:26[snorts] with a cataclysmic effect
15:28rather of Russia's
15:33missile and drone offensive
15:37which is shattering Ukraine. There is
15:40finally I think a growing
15:43acknowledgement across Europe that the
15:46war in Ukraine is actually being lost
15:50that American power
15:53has proved less
15:56great
15:58in containing
16:00and defeating the Russians than had
16:03previously been imagined.
16:07That the Americans themselves are
16:09beginning to become skeptical about the
16:12war and about their own long-term
16:15commitment to Europe
16:17and are starting to distance themselves
16:21from European affairs.
16:23All of this is now coming together
16:26and it is causing the hysteria and the
16:29panic that we see.
16:31And this hysteria and panic is now
16:35focusing
16:36on
16:38trying to get
16:40the Russians to stop in Ukraine.
16:44A couple of weeks ago there was a
16:46report, I think it was in in the New
16:48York Times, about how European officials
16:51were
16:52pleading with the Americans to restart
16:55their diplomatic initiative with the
16:57Russians to try to get the Russians to
17:00agree to negotiate without of course any
17:04concessions being made to the Russians.
17:07Instead, the intention was to try to get
17:10the Russians
17:11to negotiate
17:14in order
17:15that they agree to a ceasefire along the
17:20existing conflict lines.
17:23In Europe,
17:24they are unable to think
17:27beyond that objective.
17:30Getting into
17:32a detailed discussion with the Russians
17:35>> [snorts]
17:36>> about the security architecture of
17:39Europe or the future of Ukraine or
17:43Ukraine's place in NATO or Ukraine's
17:46place in the European Union or about the
17:50rights of Russians in Ukraine.
17:54All of that
17:55remains completely unthinkable. It is
17:59as much of a taboo subject as it has
18:03ever been.
18:04But,
18:05following the failure of Ukraine's drone
18:07offensive of the summer and the crisis
18:11that is playing out in Ukraine now,
18:14there've been attempts to get the
18:15Americans to try to get the Russians to
18:18stop. We had the trip to Moscow by
18:22Ratcliffe, the CIA director. We had the
18:25trip to
18:28Moscow by Witkoff and Kushner,
18:31Trump's friends.
18:33On both occasions, the Russians refused
18:36to stop. They rejected
18:39Ratcliffe's threats.
18:42They rejected Witkoff's and Kushner's
18:46bribes.
18:47And well,
18:50the war continues. The things
18:54are going from bad to worse.
18:58There is now serious worry about whether
19:02Ukraine can get through the summer the
19:05winter.
19:06Bloomberg is saying that
19:09in Europe, they now believe
19:11that if Ukraine
19:13isn't able to get through the winter,
19:16I'm not quite sure what that means by
19:17the way, isn't able to get through the
19:19winter, then it will lose the war.
19:25So, again, there is this enormous effort
19:30to persuade the Russians, to get the
19:32Russians to stop.
19:34And we see this playing out now
19:36in the United Nations.
19:39So, Macron went to the United Nations
19:43and he floated again the possibility,
19:45the idea of a ceasefire in the sky, of
19:50the Russians stopping all attacks on
19:53Ukraine's energy system, on its civilian
19:56infrastructure, on its ships in the
19:59Black Sea,
20:01um in return for the Ukrainians ceasing
20:05all attacks on Russia's energy system.
20:11That, by the way, was a proposal that
20:13Macron also made a year ago
20:17when the Russians rejected it. And of
20:20course, they're going to reject it
20:22again. And I believe in fact that they
20:25have just done so.
20:27Anyway, Zelenskyy, needless to say, has
20:29made the same uh proposal. He too has
20:33said that Ukraine is willing and ready
20:36to enter into any energy ceasefire as
20:40soon as Russia is.
20:43Notice that he was not talking like this
20:45a few weeks ago, at the height of the
20:48summer, when the Ukrainians were
20:50carrying out drone strikes against
20:52Russian refineries. But okay, he's
20:55saying it now, but of course, once more,
20:58the Russians are not going to
21:00reciprocate.
21:01And it was the president of the United
21:03States, Donald Trump, has said it, too.
21:08And in fact, there's been something of
21:11an attempt at the United Nations this
21:13year in particular
21:16to try to get as many countries as
21:18possible to put as much pressure on
21:22Russia as possible. None of the big
21:25countries, not China, not India, not um
21:30the big Arab states, they're not joining
21:33in any of this. But I noticed that the
21:37UN Secretary General, I should say the
21:40outgoing UN Secretary General, Antonio
21:44Guterres,
21:46with whom
21:48relations
21:50between him and Russia
21:52have just did
21:54crumbled to critical levels. Well,
21:59he also made
22:01a speech which the Russians certainly,
22:04and I also, interpret as pretty clearly
22:07supportive of Ukraine in this conflict.
22:12Anyway,
22:13the point is that obviously
22:17the Russians,
22:18when they carry out a big strike on Kiev
22:22if of the sort that they have done,
22:25are sending a signal to these people.
22:29They're telling them, "Look, you might
22:32want us to stop, but we are not going to
22:36stop."
22:37But I don't think that this is the
22:39reason for the strike that we have just
22:42seen take place over the last few hours,
22:46the strike that has taken place mostly
22:49in broad daylight.
22:51I think, as I said, it serves a specific
22:54military motive and a military purpose.
22:58And the reason it has taken place in
23:00daylight is that it has increased the
23:04accuracy of the Russian attack.
23:08It is nonetheless
23:10an immense demonstration of power.
23:14It demonstrates
23:15that the Russians can now
23:18hit
23:19any target
23:21they wish in Kiev at will.
23:26They can strike any building
23:30they can strike
23:32any
23:33facility
23:35in Kiev at will day or night
23:40and they can do so with enormous power.
23:44And that brings us to some of the
23:46targets that the Russians struck last uh
23:50over the course of this latest strike.
23:54And here again
23:56it's interesting that people have been
23:59talking a lot about the fact that the
24:01attack took place in daylight
24:04which is of course
24:06true
24:07and important
24:09but not the selection of targets that
24:13the Russians chose.
24:15Now, the Russians have provided us with
24:17some information about these targets,
24:19but interestingly they've not said very
24:22much about the one which I considered to
24:26be far and away the most important.
24:31And that is Kiev railway station. The
24:34Russians have attacked it again. This is
24:37the railway station in the west of Kiev.
24:41They've attacked it again. Apparently
24:43two drones actually hit the railway
24:45station which is of course an enormous
24:48complex. Two drones are not going to be
24:52enough to attack
24:54or destroy rather to destroy the entire
24:57railway station. But anyway, two drones
24:59uh apparently hit the railway station.
25:02And the Russians have also been hitting
25:05various other facilities and structures
25:08in Kiev, which are connected to
25:14the operation of Ukraine's railway
25:17system. Now, bear in mind that the
25:21Russians have also been systematically
25:24destroying
25:25Ukrainian locomotives,
25:28500
25:29in total,
25:31according to reports circulating a few
25:35days ago, have been hit. That doesn't
25:37mean that 500 have been destroyed. Some
25:40of them probably can be repaired,
25:44perhaps a lot of them can. But overall,
25:47Ukraine's locomotive fleet is reducing,
25:51and that is putting more stress on the
25:54remaining locomotives, and must be
25:57complicating
25:59operations of the Ukrainian railway
26:02system.
26:03But it is not general attacks
26:07on the Ukrainian railway system
26:11that are important.
26:14It is specific attacks
26:17on that part of the railway system that
26:21connects the city of Kiev
26:25with
26:26Poland,
26:28the European Union,
26:30and the West.
26:32And I have already talked about this in
26:35several programs, how a few weeks ago
26:40the Russians attacked
26:43a building
26:44in central Kiev,
26:47in the vicinity of the railway station.
26:50That was apparently
26:52a missile strike.
26:55Then
26:56shortly after
26:59we had the report
27:02of the attack
27:03on the locomotive
27:05at the railway star siding in the
27:09railway station on the
27:12Ukrainian-Polish
27:14border.
27:16The
27:18locomotive
27:19which had brought a train to this
27:22station from Kyiv at the same time that
27:27Western dignitaries who had attended the
27:31Yalta Forum in
27:34Kyiv were passing through that very same
27:38railway station on their way back from
27:42Kyiv and traveling through to the west.
27:45People like Boris Johnson, Carl Bildt
27:49and others.
27:51And we had that report by Eric Schmitt
27:56in the Washington Post about how he
28:00arrived at the railway station during a
28:04raid, a missile and drone raid on Kyiv
28:11and the entire railway station was
28:13shaking whilst he was there
28:17hiding in the air raid shelters
28:20presumably located beneath the station.
28:25And now we've had more attacks this time
28:28with probably Geran-4 drones
28:32intentionally striking the railway
28:34station itself
28:37doing so moreover in broad daylight
28:44causing
28:45a certain amount of damage
28:49but signaling to the Ukrainians
28:52and to the west
28:54that the railway station
28:56is a target
28:58and the railway bridge, the railway
29:01system linking Kiev
29:05with
29:06Poland
29:08and the west
29:11is a target, too.
29:14Now,
29:15what this means
29:17is that the Russians are continuing
29:20methodically
29:22to move towards the point
29:24where
29:26they're going to seal off Kiev from the
29:28west. They
29:30have the ability to intercept trains
29:35along this railway system.
29:37We've seen them do that.
29:39They have the
29:41ability
29:43and the will
29:44to attack the railway station in Kiev
29:47itself.
29:48They have the ability and the will to
29:51attack locomotives
29:54in
29:56this station
29:58on the Polish border.
30:01Before long
30:04once that asvets system is in full
30:06operation
30:07they will have the ability and I have no
30:10doubt they have the bill the will the
30:12will to attack trains that are moving
30:16along this railway line
30:19between Kiev
30:21and Poland.
30:23There is going to come a point
30:26very soon
30:27when this railway line is going to
30:30become too dangerous for anybody to use.
30:34And if the attack in daylight
30:38was intended to convey a message
30:42the message it was intended to convey
30:45was, "Look, we are attacking Kyiv's
30:49railway station. We have told you
30:52repeatedly, get your people out of Kyiv.
30:55Get your embassies and your staff and
30:58your NGOs out of Kyiv. Kyiv is not safe
31:06and access to Kyiv
31:09is not secure
31:12and the day will come
31:15and the day will come relatively soon
31:19where that access to Kyiv is completely
31:23denied.
31:25So, if there was a message
31:29alongside this strike, that is the
31:33message the Russians were giving.
31:36It's one of the most frustrating things
31:39about this war is that you see things
31:41happen which are perfectly obvious
31:44and very few people discuss or comment
31:47upon them and then when we reach the
31:51point
31:52where
31:53in their full
31:56effectiveness,
31:58they finally happen, there is shock and
32:02dismay and outrage.
32:05Whereas in fact all of the warning signs
32:10were there.
32:11And I think that this is the case with
32:15the presence
32:16of Western embassies and Western
32:18diplomats and all of those people in
32:20Kyiv as well. The Russians said in May
32:24that Kyiv was becoming dangerous.
32:27They brought us to a position in
32:29September where Kyiv has no air
32:33defenses. They're attacking Kyiv night
32:37and day.
32:38They are now attacking in broad
32:40daylight.
32:42They're attacking the railway station.
32:44They've attacked the railway station
32:48in on the Polish border as well.
32:52They've
32:54launched missiles that have impacted
32:57near the railway station making the
33:00ground shake.
33:02The whole railway
33:04station shake.
33:06What more message what more warning
33:11do you need?
33:13Perhaps
33:16it would be wrong
33:18for the West to pull all its people out
33:21of Kiev.
33:22The situation at the moment is not so
33:24dangerous.
33:25There are Ukrainians that perhaps still
33:28need some help that the Westerners can
33:31still
33:32provide them.
33:34But Kiev is no longer safe as it was.
33:39I think stronger warnings
33:42to Westerners to think about leaving
33:45Kiev ought to be given.
33:49I am
33:50concerned
33:52troubled by the fact that so far they
33:56have not.
33:57Anyway, that was the big strike that the
34:00Russians conducted last night. Now, I've
34:03discussed the various
34:07demands, requests
34:10made
34:11by people in the West, by Macron and
34:14Trump and Zelenskyy and no doubt others,
34:17too, for the Russians to stop the energy
34:21war.
34:22The Russians, of course, are not going
34:23to stop the energy war. Not when they're
34:26such a position of such overwhelming
34:29advantage. And we can see that they're
34:32working towards a plan and they're not
34:35going to shift or adjust or change that
34:38plan.
34:39But it would be remiss of me or not to
34:41mention the meeting that took place
34:43between Donald Trump and Vladimir
34:45Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN
34:50session
34:51in New York.
34:53And they did meet and they spoke
34:55together for 40 minutes, which makes it
34:58by
34:59these kind of standards a relatively
35:01short meeting.
35:04Um
35:05Zelensky
35:07gave the impression that he was going
35:09into the meeting full of optimism.
35:13I've seen some photos of Trump and
35:16Zelensky
35:18which
35:19I have been led to believe were made
35:22after the meeting took place,
35:26but I am not absolutely sure that is so.
35:29They might have been made
35:31after previous meetings.
35:33I'm not sure.
35:35But
35:36if those meet those photos were taken
35:40after this meeting,
35:42well,
35:43the downcast faces of the two men would
35:48tell its own story.
35:50The meeting clearly didn't go well. And
35:52in fact, we have lots of reports about
35:55the fact that it didn't go well.
35:57Zelensky again came with his demand for
36:01more PAC-3 missile interceptors.
36:05I don't know where he thinks Donald
36:08Trump is going to find them given the
36:11critical shortages that the US military
36:14is itself experiencing of these PAC-3
36:18mid missile interceptors.
36:21Anyway,
36:22Zelensky didn't get them.
36:25Zelensky again asked for the license
36:30and the plan
36:32to produce these PAC-3 missile
36:35interceptors.
36:37Um
36:38he says
36:39bizarrely
36:41that
36:43it would take at least a year
36:45for Ukraine, if it was provided with the
36:48blueprints and the plans and all of
36:49that, to produce the PAC-3 missile
36:53interceptors.
36:55That is nonsense.
36:58The plans
37:00would be plans
37:02of a missile
37:04that Ukraine simply does not have the
37:08ability to produce in any form.
37:12It couldn't develop the rocket fuel. It
37:14couldn't produce the rocket fuel.
37:18Let alone
37:19all of the other parts of the missile.
37:22And by the way, if he wants the plans,
37:24he doesn't have to ask Trump for them.
37:27He can ask Raytheon Raytheon
37:29directly. Zelensky can ask Raytheon
37:32directly. And if he doesn't like
37:36when if Raytheon agrees, if he doesn't
37:39like to ask for the plans from Trump,
37:42well, Zelensky can get the plans from
37:44the Germans and the Japanese, who have
37:46both entered into long-term contracts to
37:50produce these missiles. Though the
37:52Japanese have produced only very few,
37:55despite being one of the world's great
37:57industrial powers, which by the way,
37:59Ukraine is not. And the Germans so far
38:03have not managed to produce any.
38:07Just say. So, Zelensky saying that if he
38:11gets these plans, these blueprints,
38:13Ukraine can produce them in a year is a
38:17grotesque, ludicrous, absurd fantasy.
38:21Whether the journalists who hang on his
38:24every word believe it, of course, is
38:27another matter. I would add also that
38:31Zelensky badgering Trump for the
38:34blueprints for the Patriot missile
38:37system
38:38is a massive vote of no confidence from
38:43Zelensky himself
38:45in his own Freya
38:48anti-aircraft
38:50missile system missile.
38:52Um a derivative apparently of the S-300
38:56missile system that Ukraine used to
38:59operate and which it inherited from the
39:01Soviet Union.
39:02Anyway, um that system, the Freya, is
39:06supposed to be entering service in the
39:09summer of 2027.
39:11If Zelensky wants Patriot PAC-3 missile
39:14interceptors instead
39:17or as well as the Freya,
39:20it suggests that he doesn't have very
39:22much confidence in the effectiveness of
39:25the Freya, just to say. Anyway, Zelensky
39:29didn't come away
39:31so far with any plans or blueprints for
39:35the Patriot missile system. Trump said
39:38he would talk about it with Raytheon,
39:41but that doesn't, of course, take us
39:43very far. Raytheon has said that they're
39:45open to the possibility. That doesn't
39:48take us very far, either. This whole
39:50debate about this topic is absurd and,
39:55in fact, it is boring.
39:57But anyway, I suppose I must cover it.
40:00>> [snorts]
40:00>> And well, as far as I can see in every
40:04other possible regard and respect,
40:06Zelensky and Trump weren't able to agree
40:09about anything. Zelensky, of course,
40:12continues to insist that he's not going
40:14to give up Donbas or a millimeter of
40:17territory.
40:18He's not going to give up on anything.
40:21He still wants to meet Putin.
40:24Um
40:25he won't get the message that Putin
40:29doesn't want to meet him.
40:33Of course, Putin says that Zelenskyy's
40:35welcome to come to Moscow.
40:38But, understandably enough,
40:40Zelenskyy won't won't go there.
40:43And by the way, and for the record, I
40:45think he's wise not to go.
40:48Um the Russians
40:49have, including Putin, have all but
40:52called him a terrorist.
40:55I think that
40:57it would be extremely dangerous for
41:00Zelenskyy to even think about traveling
41:03to Moscow after being
41:05called
41:07that by the Russians. But, anyway,
41:11the the sum total
41:13of everything that is coming out
41:16of the UN General Assembly,
41:20everything that the Europeans are saying
41:23and doing
41:25is that it is all completely
41:28meaningless.
41:29That it means absolutely
41:32nothing. Nothing at all.
41:35That
41:37the Russians
41:39no longer are taking any of this
41:41seriously anymore.
41:43They don't take the Americans seriously.
41:47They don't take the Europeans seriously.
41:49And they absolutely do not take Vladimir
41:52Zelenskyy seriously.
41:54And
41:55all of these words now, including words
41:59from, say, President Alexander Stubb of
42:03Finland,
42:05he's just said that all the Russians
42:06need to do again is to end this thing.
42:09They need to understand and accept that
42:12they obviously can't win. So, why don't
42:15they stop? All of these things that all
42:18of these people say, it's
42:21just
42:22wind,
42:24which the Russians
42:26just let
42:27fly past them.
42:30And when I say the Russians, I don't
42:32just mean Putin
42:34and the Russian leadership,
42:36but I mean
42:37the entire
42:41political structures in Russia
42:44and the population
42:47as well.
42:48I think, frankly, by now they are
42:52entirely and exclusively focused on
42:55winning the war.
42:57Now,
42:58Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, is
43:02at the General Assembly.
43:04He has had a meeting with Marco Rubio,
43:09the US's invisible Secretary of State,
43:13who barely travels, has hardly visited
43:16Europe, does not go to Russia,
43:19has only once been to China in Donald
43:22Trump's
43:23company,
43:25and who is mostly focused, so far as I
43:29can see, on South American matters.
43:33Anyway, Lavrov has had a meeting with
43:35Rubio, but I doubt that that has changed
43:38anything very much.
43:41Um
43:42Trump was asked
43:44whether
43:46he intends
43:48to put in place
43:50the Lindsey Graham-Richard
43:53Blumenthal sanctions from hell piece.
43:57He prevaricated
44:00and didn't provide a coherent answer.
44:04He's due to meet
44:06the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a few
44:09days.
44:10That is unless the Chinese decide to
44:12call the entire meeting off. There's
44:15been some suggestions that the Chinese
44:18have threatened to do so if the United
44:20States moves forward over the next few
44:23days with a major arms sale to Taiwan.
44:28I don't think
44:30that the Chinese are going to call off
44:32this meeting. I'm confident that the
44:34meeting will indeed happen. Anyway,
44:38um
44:39the word is
44:41that there's a negotiation underway
44:43between the Chinese and the Americans
44:47for another trade truce
44:50an agreement that for the rest of Donald
44:53Trump's
44:54term, 2 years in other words, there
44:57should be some kind of an agreement that
44:59the United States and China will not
45:02impose tariffs on each other.
45:06The Americans have
45:07supposedly pushed back
45:10on some of that. They don't want this
45:13trade truce to last for 2 years. They
45:16only want it to last for 6 months.
45:20The fact that they're talking about a
45:21trade truce with the Chinese at all it
45:25seems to me or but tells us
45:27that Donald Trump himself
45:31has no interest in putting into effect
45:35the Lindsey Graham Richard Blumenthal
45:39sanctions from hell
45:41because China, as we know
45:44is now the world's major buyer of
45:46Russian oil along with India.
45:50And
45:51if Trump is seriously negotiating a
45:55trade truce with the Chinese
45:59he is clearly not planning to slap 100%
46:03tariffs on China
46:06in the way that this new act envisages.
46:12So, it looks as if
46:14the Lindsey Graham-Richard Blumenthal
46:17bill
46:18is going to be filed away
46:21in some drawer gathering dust
46:24until and unless
46:26perhaps a new president at some point in
46:30the future
46:31decides to take it out and dust it out
46:35and impose it.
46:39Though
46:40I have to say
46:42with every day and week and month that
46:45passes, this looks more and more
46:49unlikely to me.
46:52Now
46:53Professor
46:55John Mearsheimer, who's recently been to
46:57Russia
46:58together with Larry Johnson,
47:01John Napolitano,
47:03um Alistair Crooke,
47:05and various other people,
47:07over the course of that meet meet visit
47:10had meetings with several senior Russian
47:13officials,
47:15including the Russian foreign minister
47:18Sergey Lavrov.
47:21Um
47:22I've had the privilege of a private
47:23conversation with Professor Well, with
47:26conversation wasn't private exactly.
47:29Uh with Professor Mearsheimer in
47:31Chicago.
47:33Um he told me
47:36exactly what he has been saying now on
47:39his own Substack site and in videos that
47:42he's done with various people that the
47:45Russians feel very, very angry
47:49about Anchorage, that they felt that
47:52they were lured to Anchorage
47:56by a proposal
47:59provided to them by Steve Wigoff
48:03on Trump's behalf.
48:06They accepted that proposal in Anchorage
48:11in good faith
48:13on the assurance
48:15from Trump that he would be able to
48:17bring the Europeans
48:19and
48:20the Ukrainians into line.
48:25The Russians
48:27are furious
48:29that Trump
48:31proved
48:32unable
48:34to act on that.
48:37And they have given up
48:39any hope
48:41or belief
48:42that there is any future
48:45in negotiations
48:47with Donald Trump
48:49or with the Americans.
48:51Professor Mearsheimer
48:53said something else.
48:55He said something that I've already
48:57written and spoken about.
49:00That though the Russians
49:04are angry about Anchorage
49:07and
49:09dismissive now
49:12of the prospect of negotiations
49:15with the Americans
49:17they still
49:19treat the Americans with a certain
49:21wariness
49:23and even respect.
49:25By contrast
49:27they loathe
49:29the Europeans who they feel have
49:32betrayed them.
49:34Betrayed them because of all of the hard
49:37work the Russians have put in to
49:40repairing their relations with Europe
49:43at the end of the Cold War and after
49:48and who the the
49:50believe
49:52are now
49:53obsessively
49:55even fanatically
49:57hostile to themselves.
50:00So, the Russians are furious with the
50:02Europeans and do not
50:04have any intention
50:06of engaging with the Europeans in any
50:10sort of negotiations
50:12at all.
50:14And that the
50:15Russians
50:17remarkably
50:19despite the fact that the war
50:21is going on
50:23harbor
50:24very little
50:26hostility to the Ukrainian people
50:29who basically they continue to see as
50:33kindred
50:34who have been
50:35lured
50:37into the war
50:39by the duplicity of the West.
50:42Anyway,
50:43I pass all that on. You can find it.
50:45Professor Mearsheimer discusses it
50:49in much more detail
50:50in
50:52various programs that he's done.
50:54It completely conforms
50:57with my own view.
51:00Except that
51:02angry though the Russians
51:06were
51:07after the failure of Anchorage
51:10in the autumn of last year
51:13my own belief
51:15is that the final straw
51:18the moment when the Russians decided
51:22that negotiations with the Americans
51:24were
51:26a totally wasted exercise
51:29was
51:30the attack on Valdai.
51:33The attack
51:35which as far as they were concerned
51:38was a deliberate attack on Putin's
51:40residence in Novgorod region
51:45targeting
51:46Putin himself
51:48in what was
51:50as far as the Russians are concerned
51:52an assassination attempt.
51:55I believe that since then
51:58the entire outlook of the Russians
52:02towards the war
52:04and towards negotiations
52:07has changed.
52:08That they are now effectively
52:10implacable.
52:12That they think only of a military
52:15victory even if they do go through the
52:18motions from time to time of talking
52:22about negotiations.
52:25And I believe
52:27moreover
52:29that these attempts to break the railway
52:33connection between Kyiv and Poland
52:37are part of this implacable
52:40mode that the Russians are now in. They
52:45do not want the West, the Europeans
52:48especially, in any part
52:51of Ukraine.
52:55Certainly not in Eastern Ukraine.
52:58Certainly not in Crimea.
53:00They don't even want them in Kyiv
53:03itself. They want to push them out of
53:06Kyiv
53:07and the fact that they do
53:10makes me believe
53:12that their ultimate objective as well as
53:16Odessa
53:17on the Black Sea must be Kyiv itself.
53:22I noticed that Larry Johnson
53:24who has also been to Russia with the
53:27same group as Professor Mearsheimer
53:30and who also met with the same Russian
53:32officials as Professor Mearsheimer did
53:36is
53:37of exactly the same view as me.
53:40Anyway,
53:42let's press on. It was not only
53:46the railway station that the Russians
53:49attacked in Kyiv. They did attack other
53:51facilities, as I discussed. They
53:53attacked gasoline stations, but they
53:56also discussed attacked many places
54:00across Ukraine as well.
54:03This was
54:04a drone strike that took place across
54:07the entire expanse of Ukraine.
54:12Zaporizhzhia
54:14and Dnipro, the two cities on the
54:17Dnieper River were both attacked.
54:20Um Odessa and the places around it were
54:23attacked, too. If we're talking about
54:25Odessa, there were lots of strikes in
54:28that area as well by the Dante and
54:31Bandera
54:32cheap, mass-produced cruise missiles
54:36that the Russians are using in the war.
54:40And of course, the Russians continue to
54:42bomb
54:44intensively
54:45along the front lines.
54:47I noticed that one particularly powerful
54:52bomb, a FAB 3000 bomb,
54:57according to the Russians,
54:59was dropped over the last few hours
55:02on what the Russians say was the
55:05headquarters
55:06of one of the Ukrainian bay brigades
55:09that is currently involved in the battle
55:14for Orikhiv.
55:16If that is true,
55:18and if the bomb hit,
55:22then well,
55:24a bomb of that size is going to do
55:27immense damage.
55:30There must have been many killed
55:33and many wounded.
55:35And I fear
55:36very few survivors.
55:39Meanwhile,
55:41the ground war
55:43continues
55:45unabated.
55:47And we
55:50had yesterday that report
55:55about the Russian encirclement
55:58of Dobropillia.
56:00And a few hours later
56:03we got a very detailed report
56:06about the fighting in Dobropillia
56:10from Readovka.
56:12Readovka says that the micro districts
56:18in the south of Dobropillia have now
56:21been captured by the Russians.
56:23That this explains
56:26why the Russian Defense Ministry is now
56:29talking about
56:32an encirclement
56:34of the Ukrainian forces in Dobropillia.
56:39Last night
56:40we also got the
56:42entirely predictable reports
56:46about
56:48>> [clears throat]
56:49>> a Ukrainian counter attack
56:52in the Dobropillia area supposedly
56:56seeking to break the ring that the
56:59Russians
57:01have established around Dobropillia.
57:05There was reports that the Ukrainians
57:08have reentered and have even captured
57:11the village of
57:13Arnofka
57:15to the north
57:17east of Dobropillia
57:20providing an escape route for the
57:23trapped Ukrainian troops within
57:26Dobropillia itself.
57:29A A hours later
57:32all reports about the supposedly
57:34successful Ukrainian offensive have
57:38melted away.
57:39The Russian Defense Ministry has told us
57:42has reported that yes, there were some
57:46Ukrainian attempts
57:48to punch through this ring, but that
57:51they were all unsuccessful,
57:53and that the ring around the Ukrainian
57:55troops in Dobropillya
57:59is tightening.
58:03And in fact,
58:05this morning,
58:07there are reports that the Russians are
58:09pushing northwards towards the next
58:14inhabited
58:16place north of Dobropillya, the village
58:21of I believe it's called Belozerske.
58:24This is
58:26supposedly
58:27the Ukrainians' forward base
58:31>> [snorts]
58:31>> in seeking
58:33the defense
58:35of Dobropillya.
58:38According to some reports, the Russians
58:40are now very close to this village,
58:43which according to other reports, might
58:45be rather difficult to defend.
58:48Uh it's not a big town
58:50or anything like that, or so it seems.
58:54And well,
58:57anyway,
58:59all of the indications as of now
59:02is that the cauldron
59:04in Dobropillya
59:06remains closed
59:08and is becoming hotter.
59:12Hotter for the Ukrainian troops inside.
59:17Now,
59:18I don't know how long this battle will
59:22last. Um
59:25in
59:26earlier in the war
59:28if the Russians wanted to capture a
59:31particular town,
59:33they would leave an escape route for the
59:35Ukrainian soldiers to leave.
59:38It was rare for the Russians to work
59:42towards establishing an outright
59:45cauldron
59:47in any particular town.
59:50But
59:51since December
59:54of last year,
59:56that is precisely the course the
59:59Russians have been taking. They
1:00:01established cauldrons in Pokrovsk
1:00:04and Myrhorod.
1:00:07They've established a cauldron in
1:00:11Kharkiv region
1:00:13where Ukrainian troops in northeast
1:00:16Kharkiv region are encircled. This
1:00:19morning the Russians
1:00:21announced that they'd captured more
1:00:23villages on the territory of this
1:00:27cauldron.
1:00:29My own assessment is that the
1:00:33territory within this cauldron that is
1:00:37not
1:00:39under Russian control
1:00:41is now
1:00:43about half of what it was
1:00:48about a week ago, just say. The cauldron
1:00:52is shrinking
1:00:53and the space for the Ukrainian troops
1:00:57that are trapped in it is reducing.
1:01:02And we see that the Russians
1:01:05have created, by their own account now,
1:01:08a cauldron in Dobropillia.
1:01:11There are some claims that the Russians
1:01:13actually established this cauldron about
1:01:17a week or maybe 2 weeks ago, which by
1:01:20the way I believe is true.
1:01:23Um
1:01:24but they delayed announcing it
1:01:27until yesterday
1:01:29because
1:01:31it took them until yesterday
1:01:35to make sure that the ring around this
1:01:38cauldron was secure.
1:01:41And that there was no possibility
1:01:44of a successful Ukrainian counterattack
1:01:47that could breach through this cauldron.
1:01:51And that might very well be true. But
1:01:52anyway, the Ukrainians have created this
1:01:55cauldron in Dobropillia.
1:01:58And
1:02:00according to Rybar,
1:02:01they've created a similar cauldron in
1:02:04Orikhiv.
1:02:06The The Russian Defense Ministry has not
1:02:09yet announced this.
1:02:11Though this morning, the Russian Defense
1:02:15Ministry did
1:02:17have a report
1:02:19from some paratroopers
1:02:22in the village of Novopavlivka.
1:02:25This is the new village
1:02:27northeast of Orikhiv, not the
1:02:32town of
1:02:34Novopavlivka Pavlivka,
1:02:37which has been
1:02:38heavily fought over by the Russians and
1:02:41the Ukrainians in your Dnipropetrovsk
1:02:44region.
1:02:45Anyway, the point about Russian soldiers
1:02:48fighting
1:02:50in Novopavlivka
1:02:52is that their presence there
1:02:55essentially tells us
1:02:57that the Ukrainian troops
1:03:00trying to escape northwards
1:03:04towards the city of Zaporizhzhia
1:03:07are indeed trapped
1:03:10because Novopavlivka
1:03:13is
1:03:14located
1:03:16along the escape route that these
1:03:18Ukrainian soldiers would be following.
1:03:22So,
1:03:23the Russian objective now
1:03:26seems to be more about destroying
1:03:29Ukrainian military formations
1:03:32than it is
1:03:34about
1:03:35capturing towns.
1:03:37The objective to capture the towns
1:03:41is, of course, there.
1:03:43But, whereas earlier in the war, the
1:03:46Russians might have let the garrisons
1:03:49escape,
1:03:50now they're pursuing a much
1:03:53tougher, more aggressive policy
1:03:57of trapping
1:03:59the garrisons
1:04:01inside the towns
1:04:03and destroying them.
1:04:06Now, what this does mean
1:04:09is that the Battle of Dobropillia,
1:04:11like the Battle of Orikhiv, and the
1:04:14Battle of Oleksievo-Druzhkivka,
1:04:18south of Kramatorsk,
1:04:21where, according to some reports, the
1:04:23Russians have also advanced further,
1:04:27that these battles, where Ukrainian
1:04:30troops are in effect surrounded, are
1:04:33going to last longer,
1:04:35and that it is going to take longer for
1:04:37the towns to be, as the Russians say,
1:04:41liberated,
1:04:42or as others would say, captured.
1:04:45And the reason is that men who have
1:04:48nowhere to retreat to
1:04:50have the choice of either
1:04:53surrendering
1:04:55or of staying where they are and
1:04:57fighting.
1:04:58And
1:04:59mostly in this war,
1:05:02when faced with that choice,
1:05:05they've stood where they are
1:05:07and have fought.
1:05:09Maybe at some point in this war, this is
1:05:13going to change. But, But for the moment
1:05:16at least, the impression I have is that
1:05:20the Ukrainians in Dobropillia
1:05:23and in Orikhiv are going to hold out.
1:05:27So,
1:05:28I doubt that they can hold out for very
1:05:31long.
1:05:32But maybe
1:05:34we should expect the end of the battle
1:05:38in these two places
1:05:42in a week or two's time. Maybe next
1:05:45week, maybe the week after,
1:05:47rather than tomorrow
1:05:49or the day after.
1:05:51That
1:05:53is a product of the choice the Russians
1:05:56have made.
1:05:58Destroy Ukrainian troops now
1:06:01in the places where they are trapped,
1:06:06rather than capture the places quickly.
1:06:10Do that so that you weaken further the
1:06:14Ukrainian army,
1:06:15depriving it of experienced soldiers,
1:06:19making your life easier further down the
1:06:23line. That seems to be the trade-off the
1:06:26Russians have made, and I think we need
1:06:29to be prepared for that.
1:06:31Now, the
1:06:33estimable and excellent blogger
1:06:37who writes as Events in Ukraine,
1:06:41and whose first name I believe is is
1:06:44Peter,
1:06:45has now written
1:06:47a fascinating and very informative piece
1:06:51about Ukraine's so-called Lyman
1:06:56offensive.
1:06:57And you can read it on his Substack
1:06:59site, which is titled is Events in
1:07:02Ukraine,
1:07:04and the title is Lyman Offensive
1:07:06Counteroffensive {question mark}.
1:07:09And of course, what this blogger does,
1:07:13which is so useful,
1:07:15is that he provides an account
1:07:18of this particular battle, or a
1:07:21particular battle,
1:07:23drawing on information provided by the
1:07:28more reliable commentators
1:07:31and bloggers on the Ukrainian side of
1:07:36the information space.
1:07:38He does not, in other words,
1:07:41draw on the Russians.
1:07:45He does not go to places like Khairullin
1:07:48or Slavyangrad
1:07:50or Intel Slava or those sort of places.
1:07:54He goes instead to people like Yugend
1:07:56Mychoy
1:07:57Mychoy and people like that who write
1:08:02about this war from a Ukrainian
1:08:05perspective and a Ukrainian point of
1:08:09view.
1:08:10Now, I've repeatedly said that the
1:08:13quality of war reporting on both sides
1:08:16is high and some of these war reporters
1:08:20from the Ukrainian side, who write from
1:08:23the Ukrainian side,
1:08:25show a very high standard.
1:08:30Anyway, the sum total of what these
1:08:32people are telling us is that there is
1:08:35indeed an intensive counter battle
1:08:37taking place in the Lyman area,
1:08:41but that none of the great victories
1:08:45that were being talked about
1:08:49some days or weeks ago
1:08:52ha have happened or bear much relation
1:08:56to reality.
1:08:58The Ukrainians have not crossed and
1:09:01advanced beyond the Zherebets River.
1:09:06The fighting continues to be
1:09:09to take place either
1:09:12on the Nyatrius River
1:09:15or still in some places to the west of
1:09:20the Nyatrius River.
1:09:22No Russian force has been surrounded.
1:09:27So,
1:09:28there is an encounter battle.
1:09:31It is another one of these grueling,
1:09:34grinding battles that the Ukrainians
1:09:37sometimes bring upon themselves.
1:09:41I suspect that the Russians did indeed
1:09:44expect a Ukrainian counterattack in
1:09:47precisely this area.
1:09:51The Azov movement led by Andriy Biletsky
1:09:56took the decision
1:09:58to launch this counterattack.
1:10:01They've run into
1:10:04many problems
1:10:06and are not making a lot of progress
1:10:10at least judging by the events
1:10:14as described in this Events in Ukraine
1:10:17piece.
1:10:19But they are suffering obviously
1:10:21significant casualties.
1:10:23And I think this is probably a fair and
1:10:27correct summary of what is taking place
1:10:29here.
1:10:30The way Events in Ukraine describes this
1:10:34is that the Russians, having advanced
1:10:37very far
1:10:39from the
1:10:40east
1:10:41to take out their positions
1:10:43on the Zherebets at Nyatrius River
1:10:48stopped
1:10:50in order to form a flank
1:10:54covering the Russian advances
1:10:57further south towards Slaviansk
1:11:01and Kramatorsk.
1:11:03The kind of battles we've been talking
1:11:04about in Oleksandrivka, Druzhkivka,
1:11:09Dobropillia, and elsewhere. And also, by
1:11:12the way, the
1:11:15intense battle that is going on east of
1:11:18Slaviansk
1:11:20for Mykolaivka
1:11:23and the Slaviansk thermal power plant.
1:11:26And
1:11:27the point
1:11:29about this
1:11:31this analysis is that if it is true,
1:11:34then this flank is holding. The
1:11:37Ukrainians have attacked,
1:11:40but they have not been able to break
1:11:42through,
1:11:43and they've not been able to disrupt
1:11:46Russian plans to any serious degree.
1:11:50And for the record, so far, most of the
1:11:55fighting appears to be taking place some
1:11:58distance from the city of Lyman itself,
1:12:02though
1:12:04there are Ukrainian troops in Lyman.
1:12:09We know that because the Russian Defense
1:12:12Ministry has itself told us.
1:12:15And what we can't say is whether these
1:12:18are troops who reached Lyman as part of
1:12:21this offensive or whether they are
1:12:24Ukrainian troops who are still holding
1:12:27out
1:12:28in Lyman
1:12:30after the Russians began their storming
1:12:33operation
1:12:35of the town.
1:12:36But anyway, it's an interesting and very
1:12:40informative piece, this piece by Events
1:12:43in Ukraine. And by the way, I think it
1:12:47provides the best overall analysis that
1:12:51I've read up to now about the battle of
1:12:54Lyman.
1:12:56To repeat again,
1:12:59if the Russians
1:13:02capture or when the Russians capture the
1:13:04village of Velykyi Burluk
1:13:07in Kharkiv region,
1:13:10the entire
1:13:13military geography of this territory
1:13:16will change.
1:13:17And the Ukrainians at that point will
1:13:21almost certainly have to call
1:13:23any offensive that they are currently
1:13:26organizing in this area
1:13:29off.
1:13:31And probably the same is true
1:13:35if the Russians capture Mykolaivka
1:13:38further south
1:13:40east of Sloviansk
1:13:42and are able to consolidate their
1:13:45positions there.
1:13:47Anyway, that's what I'm going to say
1:13:49about the situation on the front lines.
1:13:52The key events
1:13:54are the sieges
1:13:56of the following towns: Orikhiv,
1:13:59Dobropillia,
1:14:00Orikhiv and Dobropillia are the most
1:14:03important.
1:14:05And the two Druzhkivkas: Druzhkivka and
1:14:09Oleksievo-Druzhkivka.
1:14:11The Russians currently are involved in
1:14:15storming all four.
1:14:18And in Dobropillia itself, they're
1:14:21telling us that
1:14:24the Ukrainian garrison
1:14:26in that town
1:14:28is now trapped.
1:14:32Well,
1:14:34a lot, of course, else
1:14:36is going on in the world.
1:14:39The Saudis have managed to get their
1:14:42pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula
1:14:46back in operation. Though uh apparently
1:14:51to a reduced degree.
1:14:55The overall crisis in the Middle East
1:14:59continues unabated.
1:15:01President Trump
1:15:03continues his eccentric game
1:15:06of talking up the prospects of a
1:15:08successful negotiation
1:15:11with the Iranians.
1:15:13It seems that Steve Whit Gulf and Jared
1:15:16Kushner met with some members of
1:15:18President Rouhani's guns
1:15:21entourage in New York. Rouhani is in New
1:15:25York or is coming to New York in order
1:15:27to participate also
1:15:30in the UN General Assembly session.
1:15:34Uh Trump, as he always does,
1:15:39talked up
1:15:40the success of these contacts.
1:15:44He gave the impression
1:15:46that peace
1:15:48is round the corner,
1:15:50which frankly I don't think it is.
1:15:54The stories circulating
1:15:57that the Iranians agreed to lift the
1:16:01blockade
1:16:03of the Strait of Hormuz
1:16:057 days after the Americans ended their
1:16:09blockade
1:16:10of Iran's oil exports.
1:16:14Many people have seized on this last
1:16:16story,
1:16:17ignoring the fact that the Iranians
1:16:21have denied its truth.
1:16:24Anyway, putting all that aside,
1:16:28Trump then
1:16:30undermined
1:16:31what prospect there probably was
1:16:35in these negotiations, which
1:16:39I suspect
1:16:41are of a very, very tentative nature.
1:16:44By making a very belligerent speech to
1:16:48the UN Security Council, the UN General
1:16:51Assembly, in which he basically
1:16:53threatened to annihilate Iran.
1:16:57Now, the Iranians will not take well to
1:17:00that, and of course, that is going to
1:17:03make the negotiations between the
1:17:05Americans and the Iranians
1:17:10even more difficult than they would
1:17:12otherwise be.
1:17:14But, it's Donald Trump to a T. It's
1:17:17exactly how he behaves.
1:17:20I suppose we should not be
1:17:23unduly surprised
1:17:25that he has done this.
1:17:27Anyway, I don't expect there to be
1:17:30any resolution, any peace agreement
1:17:33between the United States and Iran
1:17:35anytime soon. I absolutely do not expect
1:17:39to see
1:17:41any negotiation, any successful
1:17:43negotiation between the Russians, the
1:17:46Americans, the Europeans, and the
1:17:48Ukrainians to settle the conflict in
1:17:51Ukraine. In fact, even as I was making
1:17:54this program, a Russian official, I
1:17:57believe it was Peskov, said that the
1:17:59conditions for
1:18:02successful negotiations to end the
1:18:04conflict in Ukraine at the moment simply
1:18:07do not exist.
1:18:09And
1:18:11I expect the Russians to continue to
1:18:13focus on the battle, on the war.
1:18:18Three things are happening.
1:18:21One
1:18:23is that the long battle of Donbas,
1:18:26essentially a prolonged siege operation
1:18:30by the Russian military, of the very,
1:18:34very powerful Ukrainian defenses that
1:18:37have been created in Donbas since 2014,
1:18:41that that long siege is now coming to an
1:18:45end.
1:18:46The second is that with the fall of
1:18:48Orekhov, the Russians will be able to
1:18:51enter Zaporizhzhia,
1:18:54the city of Zaporizhzhia, as I discussed
1:18:57yesterday, and the battle
1:18:59for the Dnieper will begin.
1:19:03And the third
1:19:04is that the Russians will continue to
1:19:07hammer
1:19:09Ukraine from the sky,
1:19:12probably at some point triggering some
1:19:15kind of major economic crisis,
1:19:18potentially even some kind of economic
1:19:21collapse,
1:19:24but more immediately,
1:19:26they're going to take steps to cut the
1:19:28railway link between Kyiv
1:19:32and Poland.
1:19:34All the indications
1:19:39confirm this.
1:19:41And then
1:19:43Kyiv
1:19:46and the Ukrainian government,
1:19:49if it is still there,
1:19:51almost certainly
1:19:53will find itself
1:19:55cut off from the west.
1:19:58Probably
1:19:59all of these things
1:20:01are going to happen this winter.
1:20:04The
1:20:06demands from Western leaders like Trump
1:20:10and Macron
1:20:12for some kind of stop by the Russians
1:20:17are beginning to look
1:20:19or sound
1:20:21plaintive
1:20:22and even pathetic.
1:20:25That's
1:20:27what I expect to happen
1:20:30over the next few months.
1:20:32Well, we will see if that is right.
1:20:36Well, this is where I'm going to end
1:20:38today's program. Let me remind you you
1:20:41can find all our programs on our various
1:20:43platforms, Locals, Rumble, X, and
1:20:46Substack. You can support our work via
1:20:48Patreon and subscribe star and by going
1:20:51to our shop. Links under this video.
1:20:54Last but not least, please remember to
1:20:56take the like button and to check your
1:20:58subscription to this channel. That's me
1:21:01for today. More from me soon. Have a
1:21:04very good day.
1:21:21>> [music]

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