Running Back Strength of Schedule - 2026 Fantasy Football — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:06Greetings and salutations everyone. My
2. 0:08name is AJ Kirik off and welcome to my
3. 0:09YouTube channel. Today we're talking
4. 0:11about my running back strength of
5. 0:12schedule for the 2026 fantasy football
6. 0:14season. Now a couple days ago we spoke
7. 0:16on just how important offensive lines
8. 0:19were for the success and or failures of
9. 0:21our running backs going into a given
10. 0:22season. But today I want to focus on the
11. 0:2411 defenders on the opposite side of the
12. 0:26field who have a singular goal of trying
13. 0:28to stop our running backs from scoring
14. 0:30every single week. In order to speak to
15. 0:32the importance of strength of schedule
16. 0:33on a given weekly basis between weeks 1
17. 0:35through 17 in our pursuit of capturing a
18. 0:37fantasy football championship, I always
19. 0:39talk about which running backs have the
20. 0:41most advantageous matchups going into
21. 0:43the given week. So let's talk about
22. 0:44which running backs are in the most
23. 0:46advantageous positions for the 2026
24. 0:48season. As you guys can see at the top
25. 0:50of this list are the Detroit Lions, New
26. 0:52Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Rams as
27. 0:54their running backs have the easiest
28. 0:55strength of schedules. While on the
29. 0:57other end of the spectrum, Cardinals,
30. 0:59Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, and of
31. 1:01course Buffalo Bills have the most
32. 1:02difficult schedules. But before you come
33. 1:04to any conclusions let me explain to you
34. 1:05how I derived at these rankings. First
35. 1:08and foremost, let me remind you when I
36. 1:09talk about strength of schedule and
37. 1:11advantageous matchups at the running
38. 1:12back position, I am purely looking at
39. 1:14running back rushing statistics allowed.
40. 1:17We're talking about rushing yards and
41. 1:19rushing touchdowns against these
42. 1:20opposing defenses. Now the receiving
43. 1:22statistics over the course of the season
44. 1:24is often influenced at the running back
45. 1:26position by a quarterback check down
46. 1:28rate, the game script whether a team is
47. 1:30ahead or behind in their given match up,
48. 1:32and a running back's ability to
49. 1:33influence the game from the receiving
50. 1:35role. If we're talking about running
51. 1:37backs like Derrick Henry, whether he is
52. 1:39taking on the number one match up at the
53. 1:40running back position in 2025 in terms
54. 1:42of receiving points allowed, that being
55. 1:44the Cincinnati Bengals, he took them on
56. 1:46twice last season. He didn't have an
57. 1:47increase in receiving usage. Same thing
58. 1:49with someone like James Cook taking on
59. 1:51the New York Jets who he took on twice
60. 1:53last season, but the receiving
61. 1:54utilization despite the fact that of
62. 1:56course they were the second-best running
63. 1:58back receiving matchup, it didn't
64. 2:00increase his overall opportunity share,
65. 2:01nor did it increase his fantasy points.
66. 2:03Therefore, we specifically are utilizing
67. 2:06running back rushing statistics allowed
68. 2:08from the 2025 season, alongside of, of
69. 2:10course, taking the PFF run stop grades
70. 2:13of every projected starter, including
71. 2:15rookies and trades that take place this
72. 2:17offseason. And yes, I'm anticipating
73. 2:19that Aaron Donald is going to come out
74. 2:20of retirement here. Now, run stop grades
75. 2:22take into account a player's ability and
76. 2:24frequency to stop the opposing offense
77. 2:26from getting a first down. In addition,
78. 2:27within the run stop grade, we have the
79. 2:29average depth of tackle. And the reason
80. 2:31why that's so important is because if
81. 2:32our defenders are tackling Jahmyr Gibbs
82. 2:3420 yards down the field, that's not a
83. 2:36stop. That's just a normal tackle after
84. 2:38a terrible showing from the defense as a
85. 2:40whole, and of course, a negative run
86. 2:42stop grade within that overall
87. 2:43circumstance. Now, after proportionally
88. 2:45weighing these metrics, we derive at our
89. 2:47rankings here. Now, before anybody asks
90. 2:49in the comment section, remember that
91. 2:51this is excluding running back receiving
92. 2:53statistics. So, if in fact you see one
93. 2:55of your, you know, running backs that
94. 2:57you're looking to draft this upcoming
95. 2:58season or have already drafted like
96. 3:00Jahmyr Love, James Cook, Chase Brown,
97. 3:02Omari Hampton, Christian McCaffrey,
98. 3:04Achane on the very bottom of this list,
99. 3:06all those running backs I just mentioned
100. 3:08are going to have a high volume of
101. 3:09receiving utilization. Some of them are
102. 3:11going to catch the ball upwards of 60,
103. 3:1270, if not 80 times this upcoming
104. 3:15season, and because of that, it
105. 3:16shouldn't discourage you from drafting
106. 3:18them. In fact, what I want to utilize
107. 3:19this episode for is to give you an idea
108. 3:22as to which running backs you can draft
109. 3:23safely, even though you may not have
110. 3:25been thinking of them based on the
111. 3:27influence of strength of schedule giving
112. 3:29them the advantage they require to
113. 3:31potentially be on your team in 2026.
114. 3:33Now, for some running backs that we
115. 3:34already know we're drafting like Gibbs,
116. 3:36Kyren, Achane, Henry, Barkley, of
117. 3:39course, this video doubles down on the
118. 3:41potential of drafting them and
119. 3:43committing to them or potentially
120. 3:44looking towards other running backs like
121. 3:46I mentioned that perhaps are in
122. 3:48Minnesota or in Washington and may have
123. 3:50themselves some incredible schedules
124. 3:52ahead in 2026. Now, before I get into
125. 3:56talking about the different spectrums of
126. 3:58the time throughout the remainder of the
127. 3:59NFL season, weeks 1 through 7, 8 through
128. 4:0214, and the fantasy football playoffs,
129. 4:04weeks 15 through 17, a quick reminder
130. 4:06for those of you guys who are trying to
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132. 4:09rankings at every single position for
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137. 4:18include up-to-date ADPs for all the
138. 4:20primary platforms you'll be drafting on
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171. 5:13course, play responsibly. Thank you very
172. 5:15much for all the support. Okay, let's
173. 5:16get into talking about the first
174. 5:18spectrum of time for the 2026 season,
175. 5:20weeks 1 through 7. So, the reason why I
176. 5:22wanted to begin with weeks 1 through 7
177. 5:24is because the accuracy of my strength
178. 5:25of schedule at the running back
179. 5:26position, it's going to be most potent
180. 5:29at the beginning of the year. Because as
181. 5:30the season progresses, injuries are
182. 5:32going to take players. Again, on top of
183. 5:34it, players are going to be traded,
184. 5:35they're going to be cut, and because of
185. 5:37the change of these defenses, and
186. 5:39effectively, the offenses alongside of
187. 5:41it, it may in fact change the rankings,
188. 5:44and of course, which teams have the
189. 5:45easiest strength of schedule as we get
190. 5:47to weeks eight and beyond. Therefore, we
191. 5:49will update these rankings as the season
192. 5:51progresses during the regular year. But
193. 5:53as of right now, I want to focus on
194. 5:55weeks 1 through 7 because there are
195. 5:56advantages to be had. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs
196. 5:59is still at the top of this conversation
197. 6:01as the Detroit Lions have a 13.75%
198. 6:04advantage in comparison to the average
199. 6:05of the league. Now, besides Jahmyr
200. 6:07Gibbs, there are running backs like
201. 6:08Kyren Williams, Devon Achane that are
202. 6:10going to be in incredibly advantageous
203. 6:12positions. But let's talk about Jahmyr
204. 6:13Gibbs' former backfield partner in
205. 6:16crime, David Montgomery, going into this
206. 6:18upcoming season. As you can see, the
207. 6:19Houston Texans to begin the year have
208. 6:21the fourth easiest running back strength
209. 6:23of schedule via rushing statistics going
210. 6:25into the season. Now, when you look at
211. 6:27their schedule, Buffalo, Cincinnati,
212. 6:29Indianapolis, Dallas, Tennessee,
213. 6:31Jacksonville, and the New York Giants.
214. 6:33Four of those teams, four of those
215. 6:34defenses cannot stop a nosebleed. That's
216. 6:37Buffalo, Cincy, Tennessee, and the New
217. 6:39York Giants. So, that in itself, on top
218. 6:41of the fact that David Montgomery is
219. 6:43going to be utilized as a workhorse
220. 6:45running back as this team tries to kind
221. 6:47of find the magic, which they once did
222. 6:49in 2024 with Joe Mixon. They've tried to
223. 6:51emulate exactly that by trading for a
224. 6:53veteran running back in the form of
225. 6:55David Montgomery, who's going to come
226. 6:56and make an immediate impact. And for
227. 6:58fantasy purposes, for those of you who
228. 6:59are wondering if you should be investing
229. 7:01in him, of course, grab him. He's an RB2
230. 7:04at base minimum. And if he can play as
231. 7:06an RB1 to begin the season, you may be
232. 7:08able to utilize David Montgomery as
233. 7:10trade bait as the season goes along.
234. 7:13Then we move on to another running back
235. 7:15who I believe has a very solid start,
236. 7:17specifically perhaps not in the first 2
237. 7:19weeks of the season. That's Cam Akers.
238. 7:21When you look at, of course, the Dallas
239. 7:23Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams matchups,
240. 7:25those are going to be difficult as a
241. 7:26whole. I don't think it's impossible for
242. 7:28him to find success as he's quite a good
243. 7:30receiving back in the National Football
244. 7:32League. But after week 2, we're talking
245. 7:33about the Titans, Cardinals, Commanders,
246. 7:35and Saints, who he will be buzzsawing
247. 7:37absolutely through as those four
248. 7:40defenses could not stop a nosebleed
249. 7:41either last season. So, when you look at
250. 7:43the potential of this overall
251. 7:44opportunity, I think both these running
252. 7:46backs were workhorses who are going to
253. 7:48see plenty of overall touches should be
254. 7:50able to start their year on fire and of
255. 7:51course elevate themselves in comparison
256. 7:53to where they're being drafted going
257. 7:55into 2026. Now, a couple other running
258. 7:58backs that I've mentioned this
259. 7:59off-season already, specifically in
260. 8:00conjunction with offensive lines that
261. 8:02Javonte Williams and Buck Irving, Blake
262. 8:04Corum and Kyle Monangai, all associated
263. 8:07with offensive lines that are highly
264. 8:08proficient in run blocking but
265. 8:10additionally to begin the season having
266. 8:11incredible strength of schedules. Now,
267. 8:14if we talk about some more difficult
268. 8:15strength of schedules to begin the year,
269. 8:17we have the Bengals, the Broncos, the
270. 8:18Cardinals, the Bills, etc. Again, I am
271. 8:20not looking completely away from guys
272. 8:22like Chase Brown. I still believe
273. 8:24because of the receiving utilization
274. 8:26that he is going to be able to put
275. 8:27forth, he's going to find success. As
276. 8:30for someone like James Cook, yes, he may
277. 8:32have the fourth most difficult strength
278. 8:33of schedule to begin the season, but the
279. 8:35reality of the situation is he's a part
280. 8:37of one of the most elite offenses in the
281. 8:39National Football that will score a
282. 8:41boatload of touchdowns and regardless of
283. 8:43couple hiccups in the beginning of the
284. 8:45season because of the difficulty of
285. 8:46those matchups, my expectation of his
286. 8:48receiving utilization expanding is
287. 8:50certainly still going to make him a
288. 8:52top-five running back as I anticipate.
289. 8:54Now, let's go ahead and let's move on to
290. 8:55weeks 8 through 14. As we look forward
291. 8:58again, we're still looking to
292. 8:59potentially draft some running backs who
293. 9:00may still have advantageous matchups
294. 9:02once the bye weeks begin. As we know,
295. 9:04bye weeks start in week five and end in
296. 9:06week 14. But if in fact you could
297. 9:08potentially look towards players such as
298. 9:10Aaron Jones, Jacquory Croskey-Merritt.
299. 9:13Looking at the Washington Commanders
300. 9:14upcoming schedule throughout this range,
301. 9:16yes, Philly and Los Angeles Rams are
302. 9:18tough, but then you get the Giants,
303. 9:20Bengals, Cardinals, Tennessee Titans in
304. 9:22a four-game streak there. In the event
305. 9:24in which you're able to draft Jacquory
306. 9:26Croskey-Merritt as a running back three,
307. 9:28running back four on roster who's going
308. 9:30to sit on your bench all season long,
309. 9:31when you need him to come in and play in
310. 9:34that bye week kind of save your
311. 9:35position, I think he could absolutely go
312. 9:37on a four-game streak of carrying your
313. 9:39team based on those, you know, given
314. 9:41match-ups. Maybe you're not looking
315. 9:42towards J.C.M. this season, you're
316. 9:44looking towards Rashad White. Perhaps
317. 9:46not Aaron Jones, but Jordan Mason. But I
318. 9:48I think both of their schedules here are
319. 9:50quite advantageous, and considering they
320. 9:52start the season and can will continue
321. 9:54on to have advantageous match-ups even
322. 9:56in the fantasy playoffs, I think these
323. 9:58are solid investments to make if in fact
324. 10:00you're not spending too much draft
325. 10:01capital. Now, other running backs at the
326. 10:03top of this conversation consist of of
327. 10:05course Bijan Robinson. I think the price
328. 10:06is right going into this upcoming season
329. 10:07based on the history of success for
330. 10:09rookie running backs selected in the
331. 10:10first round. Then we have guys like
332. 10:11Saquon Barkley at the top of this
333. 10:12conversation, Kenneth Walker. But
334. 10:14additionally, someone like Travis
335. 10:15Etienne or Travis Etienne. Again, this
336. 10:18off-season like I've mentioned before,
337. 10:20he did have a introductory press
338. 10:21conference with the New Orleans Saints,
339. 10:22specifically said that his family
340. 10:24pronounces their last name Etienne. So,
341. 10:26I'm going to go ahead and do him the
342. 10:27respect, and as long as he continues to
343. 10:28score fantasy points, I'll call him
344. 10:30whatever he wants me to call him. Just
345. 10:32continue to deliver for our
346. 10:35he did in 2025. Looking at the upcoming
347. 10:37schedule ahead after the bye week, of
348. 10:39those upcoming match-ups, four of those
349. 10:41teams allowed 15 or more fantasy points
350. 10:44per game last season via rushing
351. 10:46statistics allowed. So, with the
352. 10:47advantageous match-ups ahead, we would
353. 10:49look towards Travis Etienne as a
354. 10:50potential week eight bye target. Again,
355. 10:53I know it's early, but it could be a
356. 10:55player that we're going after in order
357. 10:56to set ourselves up for success for the
358. 10:58streak of games in which he can go ahead
359. 11:00and get us to the fantasy football
360. 11:01playoffs. Now, some of the more
361. 11:03disadvantageous match-ups throughout the
362. 11:04spectrum of time belong to of course the
363. 11:06Bears, Steelers, Cardinals, Raiders,
364. 11:08Chargers. Again, I'm not here to harp on
365. 11:09players who are going to have difficult
366. 11:11schedules. We'll cross that bridge when
367. 11:12we get there, but we just specifically
368. 11:14want to talk about players who are going
369. 11:16to be in advantageous positions to begin
370. 11:18the upcoming season, which may give us a
371. 11:19little bit more of a path as to how we
372. 11:21are navigating our upcoming 2026 fantasy
373. 11:23football drafts. Let's close out with
374. 11:25the most important spectrum of time, the
375. 11:27fantasy football playoffs, weeks 15
376. 11:29through 17. That is correct. Do not play
377. 11:31in week 18 if in fact you are playing in
378. 11:33a week that has a week 18 championship,
379. 11:35tell your commissioner now or forever
380. 11:37hold your peace. When we talk about the
381. 11:39potential of players like Jahmyr Gibbs,
382. 11:41by the time we get to the fantasy
383. 11:42football playoffs, he will have already
384. 11:44done away with guys like Tyler Allgeier
385. 11:45and James Conner as he will be clearing
386. 11:47away the RB1. Sure, maybe early on it'll
387. 11:49be a little bit of a three-headed
388. 11:50monster, but by the time we get here and
389. 11:53he's taking on the Jets, Saints, and Las
390. 11:54Vegas Raiders, he'll be capturing people
391. 11:56championships. Then we go further on to,
392. 11:58you know, someone like Jonathan Taylor
393. 12:00who in his career going back to 2024
394. 12:03from weeks 15 through 17, if you guys
395. 12:04remember, this looks eerily similar to
396. 12:06his overall year in which he took on
397. 12:08Denver, Tennessee, and the New York
398. 12:09Giants and was averaging 26.5 fantasy
399. 12:12points per game in the 2024 fantasy
400. 12:14football playoffs. This year takes on
401. 12:16the Titans, Bengals, and Browns. Looks
402. 12:17very similar and could end up winning us
403. 12:19a championship. Then we have guys like
404. 12:21Jahmyr Gibbs, of course, at the top of
405. 12:23this conversation. You know, Devon
406. 12:25Achane, elite running backs who of
407. 12:26course are going to be in our lineups as
408. 12:29first or second round picks this
409. 12:30upcoming season. And then there are some
410. 12:32players like, you know, again, Jordan
411. 12:34Mason, Aaron Jones. If in fact they can
412. 12:36get to week 15 through 17 healthy, have
413. 12:39themselves some advantageous positions,
414. 12:40especially week 16 and 17 as they'll
415. 12:42have, you know, that Washington and New
416. 12:44York Jets defense, which I'd be excited
417. 12:47to of course fire those running backs up
418. 12:48against. But that's going to cover in
419. 12:50regards to of course this spectrum of
420. 12:51time in terms of advantageous matchups.
421. 12:54Of course, we still have the Broncos,
422. 12:55Steelers, Jets, Saints, etc. But I also
423. 12:57want to talk about some of the more
424. 12:58disadvantageous positions to your head.
425. 13:00As you can tell, the Philadelphia Eagles
426. 13:02backfield will be taking on Seattle,
427. 13:05Houston, and San Francisco. That is no
428. 13:07joke at all. Saquon Barkley, again, he
429. 13:09is an elite running back and I'm going
430. 13:10to give him the benefit of the doubt,
431. 13:12but as we get closer, it is still going
432. 13:14to be a disadvantageous position to be
433. 13:16in, so be aware of that as you approach
434. 13:19your upcoming drafts. Now, before we
435. 13:20close out today's episode, of course, I
436. 13:22want to remind you guys, if you guys are
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451. 13:47that out today as I'm more than happy to
452. 13:49be your resource to helping you capture
453. 13:50a fantasy football championship this
454. 13:52year. And again, for those of you guys
455. 13:53who potentially are not interested
456. 13:55there, but want to still go ahead and
457. 13:56get my weekly rankings all season long,
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465. 14:09remainder of the season. That's going to
466. 14:11cover for me today. Thank you everybody
467. 14:12for watching, of course. We'll throw up
468. 14:14the running back strength of schedule
469. 14:16once again on screen. Take advantage of
470. 14:19this. I'm trying to be as helpful of a
471. 14:21resource as I possibly can to help us
472. 14:23win some championships. But until next
473. 14:24time, I'll see you guys. Peace.