Rocket Classic PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:04All systems gone. Clear for lift up.
- 0:36What's up everyone? Tyler Tamboline here
- 0:37aka Totag and Tambo. Back for another
- 0:40edition of Leverage Lane here on the
- 0:41Ship Nation YouTube station. Got my guy
- 0:43Alex Blickl here with me as always. And
- 0:45we're starting a little bit early. Alex,
- 0:47you say, you know, if you're early,
- 0:48you're on time. If you're on time,
- 0:49you're late. We always try and start at
- 0:50least before on time, but we got a
- 0:52little early this week. So, I'm excited
- 0:54to get it rolling. got a baseball slate
- 0:55coming up, I believe 12:10 Eastern time.
- 0:58So, I'll let people get through that. If
- 0:59you guys have your questions, you can
- 1:01throw them in the chat. But, we are
- 1:02going to be breaking down all things for
- 1:04the final Rocket Classic in Detroit, and
- 1:06that's going to be the setup there. So,
- 1:08um I guess the final Rocket Classic, and
- 1:10it's also in Detroit, but there's been
- 1:12some major course changes. We will talk
- 1:14about the um course fit, the weather.
- 1:16We'll talk about how this sets up now
- 1:18with the new course changes that I just
- 1:19talked about. And then we'll also talk
- 1:20about the chalk builds, how you can
- 1:22leverage that this week. A little bit of
- 1:24FGWC recap right quick and then go from
- 1:27there. But Alex, you missed last week. I
- 1:28was traveling out to the 3M. There's
- 1:30definitely some, you know, conversation
- 1:32to be had there quick, but I will say
- 1:34the big takeaway for me. We got to play
- 1:35the course on Monday in the same
- 1:38conditions.
- 1:39>> These guys, look, it's spoiler alert,
- 1:40they're good. These guys are good. It's
- 1:42like a saying all that stuff. The ball,
- 1:43you can't find it. If it goes in the
- 1:45rough, there's going to be balls. If
- 1:46there was a tournament there, thankfully
- 1:47there isn't next year because it
- 1:48wouldn't be looking for our balls that
- 1:50we lost on Monday on this course because
- 1:52the rough is it's that's and this is a
- 1:54course they're shooting 24 under. Man,
- 1:55you're a golfer. You know what this is,
- 1:57but man, it is crazy difficult on these
- 1:59courses and and we were with a scratch
- 2:00golfer and there's still he had some
- 2:02amazing shots and then some really bad
- 2:04ones, too. So, it's crazy how good these
- 2:06guys are.
- 2:07>> Yeah, it really is. And uh it's it's
- 2:09funny like one of the things that I
- 2:11always look at is course rating and
- 2:13slope. Like if if you play a lot of
- 2:16golf, if you keep a handicap, you know
- 2:17about course rating and slope.
- 2:18Essentially, it measures like how
- 2:20difficult the golf course is. And some
- 2:22of the courses on tour that we think of
- 2:24is like these birdie fests. When you
- 2:26actually go play those courses, the
- 2:28first thing you'll notice is, "Oh my
- 2:29god, this rating and slope is like the
- 2:31highest I've ever seen. It's it's such a
- 2:33long course. Like how are they shooting
- 2:34these kinds of scores?" It's cuz they're
- 2:36that damn good. And yeah, the the
- 2:38courses that actually do challenge them,
- 2:40think about how tough they have to be uh
- 2:43in comparison to the ones that we think
- 2:44of as like Birdie Fests that are
- 2:46actually like, oh, it's a course rating
- 2:47of 78. So, like, you know, a scratch
- 2:49golfer is going to shoot six over or
- 2:51something like that, right? So, yeah,
- 2:52it's it's incredible how good they are.
- 2:54And uh I'm glad you had a a fun
- 2:56experience. I know it wasn't the the
- 2:58outcome you you totally wanted, but I we
- 3:00we talk about it all the time, and I've
- 3:02told you this many times, ju just
- 3:03getting there is such a ridiculously
- 3:05cool accomplishment. So hopefully uh you
- 3:08still feel really proud of that. And it
- 3:09it's kind of the same I think as winning
- 3:11tickets, right? It's like you're only
- 3:13going to all you can control is how many
- 3:15chances you give yourself and then once
- 3:17you get there you kind of just have to
- 3:18hope things break your way.
- 3:19>> That's the key, right? It's not I loved
- 3:20it. The winner Woodward was just an
- 3:22awesome dude Matt and he had said even
- 3:23in his little interview after the win,
- 3:25he had three entries going in and he was
- 3:27he was up there. He looked like a huge
- 3:29um opportunity to win and then Saturday
- 3:31had these really low scores and he was
- 3:32like, "Oh shit." and then people caught
- 3:33up to him and so he really had to sweat
- 3:35Sunday but ultimately in the end he came
- 3:37through which was awesome to see but he
- 3:38said like this doesn't define me like
- 3:40it's a it's a win it's huge he's very
- 3:42thankful and excited and happy and was
- 3:44just a really modest down to earth guy
- 3:45but he said like you know if he didn't
- 3:47win he's played poker for years like
- 3:49this is your ups and downs you just have
- 3:50to keep putting yourself in the position
- 3:51to make that happen and you know back in
- 3:532024 I came 47th I look at it as like to
- 3:56yo 18th is quite an accomplishment and
- 3:58also I was with you on the Doug Gim hey
- 4:00hate came out of the spa on Friday
- 4:02morning. I'm thinking, "Oh, I'm all
- 4:04good." My VIP rep is like, "Oh, man. It
- 4:06looks like you'll at least get a five of
- 4:07six." And then next hole is hole 17 for
- 4:10Doug Gim and he makes that double. And
- 4:11it was just really, really bad after
- 4:13that. I I could have made it without Max
- 4:16McGrevy. He was in there and he missed
- 4:18the cut at one off the the line at two
- 4:19under. But
- 4:21>> I thought I had Gim. And Gim was a
- 4:22separator, right? Only six people in the
- 4:24tournament had him of the 50. And so I
- 4:27had a crazy run out. But I will say
- 4:29this, the Sunday I got Alex was insane
- 4:32because I have a four a four or six. I'm
- 4:34thinking it's like a minash at best. I
- 4:36got the Bez with the all four under 70.
- 4:39I got the Zack Blair um all four under
- 4:4270. He needed like a birdie at the end
- 4:44and he almost had an eagle try. He never
- 4:46even goes for it any of the days. The
- 4:47last day he goes for it and sticks it. I
- 4:49was like, "Okay, that's amazing." And
- 4:51then McNeely had the low Saturday and
- 4:53then the and the really low or sorry the
- 4:55low Sunday. So that helped. And then
- 4:57lastly was the winner, Quivven. So I did
- 4:58have the winner on the lineup, which was
- 5:00nice. Um, just didn't quite fully get
- 5:02there, but best live final, maybe second
- 5:04best live final I've ever been at. There
- 5:06was one other, but uh, you know, it
- 5:07doesn't really matter. Just noting it.
- 5:08This was a great experience all around.
- 5:10Like you said, it's fun just to be
- 5:11there. So I'll have a bigger recap over
- 5:13on DFS mastermind. You guys go
- 5:15dfsmastermind.com. I always recap my
- 5:17live final events with pictures and
- 5:18breakdowns of the lineups and theory and
- 5:20how I played it and whatever. But I felt
- 5:22really good about how I played. I was
- 5:23never moving off Doug Gim with my
- 5:25process. And people again, it's not
- 5:26about the pick and the play, it was the
- 5:28process. I was on him and that's what
- 5:30happens, man. I know he hurt you as
- 5:31well.
- 5:32>> Yeah, it was brutal. It It made it even
- 5:35more brutal. Like he made a 19footer or
- 5:36something on his first hole on Friday to
- 5:38get to three under. It's like, all
- 5:39right, he's there. All we need him to do
- 5:42is play even par the rest of the day on
- 5:43a really, really easy golf course in
- 5:46perfect scoring conditions. And he just
- 5:48had one of his worst ball striking
- 5:50rounds in years. Uh it was uh it was
- 5:52actually like his short game in putting
- 5:54that actually kept him at three under
- 5:56late in the round and then and then yeah
- 5:58the water ball in 17 was just a a real
- 6:01kick in the dick if you will. So that
- 6:03was uh that was not fun but still really
- 6:05good week and uh yeah lots of really
- 6:07exciting things. It's also I think like
- 6:09uh this is the part of the year where we
- 6:11might start to see some week one NFL
- 6:13tickets in the lobby uh sometime soon.
- 6:16So also keep your eye out for that. And
- 6:18uh it's yet another reason to be just as
- 6:20into MLB DFS this time of year as uh as
- 6:23PGA.
- 6:23>> Yeah, I didn't see it yet. I've been
- 6:25waiting all weekend because I got to
- 6:26assume like August 1. I mean, NFL
- 6:27pricing is coming soon. We always get it
- 6:29super early. That's why everybody
- 6:30complains about week one because like
- 6:31all the pricing, it's been out for a
- 6:32month and blah blah blah, but it's
- 6:33coming soon, but they got to get those
- 6:34tournaments out there. So, I'm expecting
- 6:36a very big um start to the year. Also,
- 6:39they teased the fantasy football world
- 6:41championship while we were there, just
- 6:42just of note. So that is um going to be
- 6:45in Miami this year in South Beach and
- 6:48it's going to be I think they said the
- 6:49biggest prize pool ever. So there's
- 6:51still again people talk about DFS and
- 6:52grow like football's never going away
- 6:54and it's actually only getting bigger.
- 6:55So I'm excited about that one. Let's
- 6:57talk about these course changes. We're
- 6:58going to skip the topic of the week for
- 7:00this one. You know we recaped some. I
- 7:01I'll go more into it on DFS mastermind.
- 7:03You guys have questions throw them out
- 7:04there. But I will say let's talk about
- 7:05these course changes. $16 million put
- 7:08into changing this course. This was why
- 7:10I said what I mentioned earlier, like
- 7:12you said, very easy golf course to your
- 7:13point for the pros, not as easy as you
- 7:16think, but also be like, well, score
- 7:17there's the scores aren't going to be um
- 7:19as low this year. Well, no [ __ ] They
- 7:21literally took away par fives and stuff,
- 7:22but it's the scoring. And again, from an
- 7:24Eagles perspective, yeah, you might lose
- 7:26some Eagles out there, things like that.
- 7:28But I just mean in general, they're
- 7:29still going to beat the course up for
- 7:31what the par number has been moved to.
- 7:33And I honestly don't know what your
- 7:35thoughts are, but I just don't know if
- 7:37they can make these courses, you know,
- 7:39as hard as people say or think they can.
- 7:41We've seen this before just too many
- 7:42times like, "Oh, they made all these
- 7:44changes. This should be a real
- 7:45challenge." And it's like, nope, they
- 7:46just destroy it. So, any thoughts from
- 7:48you on this? And I I'm sure you've got a
- 7:50lot. So, I'll let you go into it.
- 7:52>> Yeah, I'm I'm trying to think of where I
- 7:53want to start. Uh I I think the first
- 7:55place to start is we should recognize
- 7:58that the test that the course presents
- 8:01these players doesn't change just
- 8:03because you take a 540 yard par five and
- 8:06turn it into a 500 yard par4. I guess
- 8:09the scores aren't going to be quite as
- 8:10low. So you know uh in the past let's
- 8:13say 26 under one now it would be 18
- 8:16under because you're taking two par
- 8:18fives a day and and turning them into
- 8:20par fours. that's still a pretty low
- 8:22score um for for a winning score, but
- 8:25more importantly, it's the fact that the
- 8:27way the golfers are being tested is the
- 8:29exact same from that change. So, uh
- 8:32there are other changes that I do think
- 8:33will be a little bit meaningful. It
- 8:35seems like the green complexes are a
- 8:37little bit more challenging um both from
- 8:39around the green standpoint and then
- 8:41also making putts. Uh the I think the
- 8:44the biggest point that I want to make is
- 8:47Donald Ross courses are unique. He has a
- 8:49very kind of unique style uh of golf
- 8:52course. I actually played a couple
- 8:54Donald Ross courses like uh kind of
- 8:57consistently in college and I did not
- 9:00like either one of them. Like I you know
- 9:02they just weren't tailored for my game.
- 9:04I struggled to kind of understand the
- 9:06best way to approach them because they
- 9:08definitely require more strategy than
- 9:09just go out there and hit good golf
- 9:11shots. Uh, so one of the splits that I'm
- 9:14looking at this week because I actually
- 9:15found it to be really predictive is
- 9:17performance on other Donald Ross
- 9:19courses. And that includes a bunch of
- 9:21major championship like one-off courses,
- 9:23but then it's also here and Sedgefield.
- 9:26And interestingly, like one of the
- 9:28things you'll notice when you kind of
- 9:30read about the course changes this week
- 9:32is that a lot of it was restoring the
- 9:35initial Donald Ross plan, the initial
- 9:37Donald Ross design, especially around
- 9:38the green and uh you know, with fairway
- 9:40bunkers off the tea that actually are in
- 9:43play for some guys, maybe not the
- 9:44longest guys. So, we'll talk more about
- 9:46distance in a minute, but interestingly,
- 9:50historically, you have been you've been
- 9:53better off predicting performance here
- 9:55at the Rocket Classic by looking at
- 9:58performance at Sedgefield for the Windom
- 10:01than looking at past performance at the
- 10:03Rocket Classic itself. Because what
- 10:05little like Ross characteristics there
- 10:07were are more prevalent at Sedgefield
- 10:10than they have been here. that probably
- 10:12will change moving forward because now a
- 10:13lot of the Ross like design has been
- 10:15restored but I found that to be really
- 10:18really interesting. Uh so you know
- 10:20Donald Ross specialist is something that
- 10:21I'm really looking at this week. Uh same
- 10:23with easy conditions and same with
- 10:25treelined courses. Uh the other point I
- 10:28want to make about treeline courses. Um
- 10:31Ron uh PJs splits 101 had some really
- 10:34cool pictures just kind of following
- 10:36some guys around in practice rounds this
- 10:38week and there was one really really
- 10:40good one that I think tells the the
- 10:41story of why treeine courses can be
- 10:43predictive because it's not like there
- 10:45are a million trees here. It's not like
- 10:47when you miss you're always going to be
- 10:49missing in trees and chipping out
- 10:50sideways like you do at RBC's Heritage
- 10:53for example. But one of the kind of
- 10:56obstacles that trees present you and and
- 10:59this picture was of Cam Young and you
- 11:00can just see like he's hitting through
- 11:02this chute of trees, the other thing
- 11:04that trees do is that they force you to
- 11:07play specific shot shapes off TE's and
- 11:10you can't just hit like a banana cut or
- 11:12a banana draw when you want to because
- 11:14the ball can't fly through trees
- 11:15obviously. And so I thought that that
- 11:16was a really cool thing that again
- 11:18showed a lot of predictive value here.
- 11:20But at the end of the day, uh I do
- 11:22expect distance to continue to be really
- 11:24predictive. This has always been a
- 11:25bombers course. I think the changes were
- 11:29kind of made trying to prevent that from
- 11:32being the case, but the rough is not
- 11:33that bad. Uh it sounds like it's patchy.
- 11:36It sounds like uh you know one of the
- 11:38kind of biggest potential avenues for
- 11:41making uh this more of an accuracy
- 11:44course than a bombers course was if the
- 11:46greens were really really firm which is
- 11:47often the case when you renovate greens
- 11:49and you put new greens in but all
- 11:52reports are that they're actually pretty
- 11:54soft uh surprisingly and so I do expect
- 11:57this to be a bombers course once again
- 11:59uh especially if there are certain
- 12:02fairway bunkers that were put in place
- 12:03where they're saying okay Now, now it's
- 12:06going to make guys be strategic or play
- 12:08around these bunkers and oops, you know,
- 12:10the top 10% of distance guys can still
- 12:12just carry those bunkers and take them
- 12:13out of play. Like that could actually
- 12:14mean that distance is going to be more
- 12:16predictive now than it's been in the
- 12:18past here. So, I definitely want to lean
- 12:21uh on bombers as much as I can while
- 12:23looking at guys who play well on Donald
- 12:25Ross courses, while looking at guys who
- 12:26play well on treeine courses. And easy
- 12:29conditions are another split that's been
- 12:31really, really predictive here in the
- 12:33past. And again, just because the scores
- 12:35aren't going to reflect such easy
- 12:36conditions now because you have some
- 12:38parfs and a par fours like the golf
- 12:39course, the test is the same. So, I do
- 12:41expect easy conditions to continue to be
- 12:43really predictive.
- 12:44>> One thing I want to ask is Ron post a
- 12:45ton of great stuff and you know when I
- 12:47was there a couple years ago, we get to
- 12:48meet Ron at the Fantasy Golf World
- 12:49Championship when it was in um Detroit
- 12:51for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the
- 12:52time in 2024 and he was going through
- 12:54some stuff then and showing it all to
- 12:56us. But this time around, he did mention
- 12:58that point you talked about on the
- 13:00greens being softer, especially for new
- 13:01greens. um and renovated and everything
- 13:04put in. But he also, it was either him
- 13:06or somebody else that mentioned they
- 13:07watered them Tuesday night. How how
- 13:09quick can those greens in your opinion
- 13:11go from people saying they're softer to
- 13:14being the firmness we expected versus,
- 13:16you know, over the next two days?
- 13:18Because this was like Wednesday morning
- 13:19when that got posted uh or sorry,
- 13:21Tuesday morning, I think it was from
- 13:22Monday night he was saying, and then
- 13:23Tuesday morning that report was posted.
- 13:26Well, now they're going to golf tomorrow
- 13:27morning, another, you know, another day
- 13:28from now. So, how quick can those things
- 13:30tighten up and firm up?
- 13:32they can, but I would be I'd be really
- 13:35surprised if they don't continue to
- 13:36water throughout the week. Uh, and then
- 13:39on Saturday overnight, so before
- 13:41Saturday, it looks like the they're
- 13:43going to get some storms. So, at most
- 13:44you're probably going to get Thursday
- 13:46and Friday without any water.
- 13:48>> Like I said, I think they're going to be
- 13:49watering each day. So, um, I would
- 13:51expect them to be soft throughout. And
- 13:53the other thing is like
- 13:55it's important to remember that the
- 13:58difference between like really soft and
- 14:01kind of neutral or even a little bit
- 14:03firm greens isn't that much. Where you
- 14:07actually get like a big effect is when
- 14:09you get to like, you know, Bay Hill at
- 14:11its firmst where balls are taking a huge
- 14:14first bounce, especially if they're
- 14:16coming out of the rough with no spin,
- 14:17like they're just going to topple
- 14:18forward. Uh I I think it's an extremely
- 14:21low chance that we we see anything like
- 14:23that here this week.
- 14:24>> All right. As far as the weather goes
- 14:26this week, I mean it ties to it a little
- 14:27bit because you just mentioned the
- 14:28storms and that on the weekend, but you
- 14:30know, potential all these other factors,
- 14:31but coming in, don't really see much. Is
- 14:33there anything that you wanted to key in
- 14:34on with the weather before we get to
- 14:36start looking at the the chalk build?
- 14:39>> No, I it doesn't look like it's going to
- 14:41be uh too interesting. you know, uh,
- 14:45light winds, gusts under 20 miles per
- 14:47hour each of the first two days, maybe
- 14:49even less the second day. So, uh, it
- 14:51doesn't seem to me like weather is going
- 14:53to be part of the story at all this
- 14:55week.
- 14:55>> Yeah. So, we're going to bring it up in
- 14:56a minute. We are going to go to the
- 14:57Stone 2.0 over at Shipment Nation. This
- 14:59will be the rough draft. We'll break it
- 15:00down. I got the optimal up and then
- 15:02we'll look down from there at what we're
- 15:03doing. Before I get into that, I do want
- 15:05to remind everybody, so just under I
- 15:07think it's just over three weeks, I
- 15:08should say now that, you know, shout out
- 15:09to the big guy in the sky. We've got the
- 15:11big guy event in Las Vegas celebrating
- 15:14James Degenerate75. Many of you know him
- 15:16as we will be in Las Vegas for f the
- 15:18weekend of this, but the event is
- 15:21Friday, August 21st, 7:30 to 10:30 p.m.
- 15:24You can go to shipnation.comthe,
- 15:27it's the bigguy event with dashes
- 15:29the-bux
- 15:32totagambo, the links there, or DM me if
- 15:35you want details on how to get down to
- 15:36this thing. But um it's going to be a
- 15:38good time. We've got the whole Detroit
- 15:39ballroom rented out. So that's on the
- 15:4112th floor. We've had some gettogethers
- 15:42in the past when James was here with us,
- 15:44but this will just really be a night to
- 15:46celebrate and remember him. The entire
- 15:48DFS community or any fantasy sports
- 15:50players out there, anyone who wants to
- 15:51sort of come celebrate and remember
- 15:53James are welcome to the event. It's not
- 15:54just for Shipet Nation or anything like
- 15:56that. It's put on for everybody. There's
- 15:58drinks, there's appetizers, there's uh,
- 16:00you know, memorial video, maybe some
- 16:02games or a signature drink with
- 16:04ranchwaters and all the stuff that the
- 16:06big guy would want. His his mom's going
- 16:07to be there. There's just a lot of
- 16:09different things that uh you know, you
- 16:10should be a part of it if you can be. I
- 16:12know not everybody can make it, but be
- 16:14sure to go check out the the site or
- 16:15just hit me up directly and we'll go
- 16:17from there. If you guys want to join
- 16:19Shipment Nation, you can get in right
- 16:20now. $49 for your first month. Get the
- 16:23rest of sort of golf through the
- 16:24playoffs. We've got all the baseball
- 16:26going on. Um NBA or sorry, um NFL just
- 16:29around the corner, but I will say uh
- 16:32Jordan did mention it. So, I saw it in
- 16:33MLB they do got the 44 44 mega tickets.
- 16:36There is a few satellites now, but it's
- 16:38not posted yet for NFL, but that will be
- 16:40obviously week one that we see that. The
- 16:42question is, do we see like a $10 and a
- 16:44$100? Do we see a $25 as usual and cut
- 16:46it off? Do we see the big $5 with like
- 16:48800 million people? Probably. So, that
- 16:50probably makes it up. So, maybe it's
- 16:51like the $5, the $20, and the 444. But
- 16:54that's just something to keep in the
- 16:56back of your mind like Alex said, if
- 16:57you're you're checking that stuff out.
- 16:59This is the optimal that I have right
- 17:02now. Anyway, Alex, again, the rough
- 17:03draft, ownership's not final, nothing
- 17:05like that. But you you see got her up
- 17:07sew you see Spawn who's definitely
- 17:09popping as a guy in the 8K range this
- 17:11week. I'm not sure if Davis Thompson
- 17:13will get as much love, but he'll get
- 17:15some this week for sure. And then Sunj
- 17:17is a projections popper. Um I'm the
- 17:20biggest Sunj fan of his all of probably
- 17:22anyone. I know why he wore the Sunj him
- 17:25Melbourne sweater last week on Thursday
- 17:27because I don't know if he was getting
- 17:28to I mean this guy just doesn't have it
- 17:30still right now. Maybe this will be the
- 17:32week and because he it looks like the
- 17:34week on paper. Everyone's saying it's
- 17:35going to be his week on paper. I thought
- 17:37it was funny in your Discord. I think it
- 17:39was Donnie Donnie being the man. He
- 17:41posted like, "Wow, Sunday stuff is
- 17:43improving. His iron game is really
- 17:44improving. Check it out." And he has the
- 17:45chart. It's like
- 17:47>> red 130th, red 120th, red 114th, red
- 17:51107. It's like he's But he's improving
- 17:53though. Give me your thoughts on this
- 17:54lineup. And you can give the Sunj jabs
- 17:56as well if you want. Yeah, I think uh I
- 17:59think this is definitely the the type of
- 18:01structure that we're going to see. Uh I
- 18:03think ownership's going to be pretty
- 18:04balanced up top. So like uh I do think
- 18:06Cam might separate a little bit, but
- 18:08then all of Xander, Godup, Seiwoo,
- 18:10Windham, uh Kantlay, Ben Griffin, Jake
- 18:13Knap, JJ Spawn, and then a little bit of
- 18:15Ryan Gerard. Like I think all of these
- 18:16guys are going to get a decent amount.
- 18:19And so we'll probably see most lineups
- 18:21have minimum two, probably three, maybe
- 18:25even four of those guys. Uh and and then
- 18:29uh you know based on how many of those
- 18:31guys you get a secondary level of chalk
- 18:33like in the in the lower 8ks where
- 18:35you've got a hoygard Thor Bj Bjornson
- 18:38Bridgemond Keegan Davis Thompson as you
- 18:40mentioned Jackson Suber Cory Connors and
- 18:42then down in the values uh I think we'll
- 18:44see Kohl's and Meisner probably get uh
- 18:46maybe like the the two most popular down
- 18:48here. Some on Michael Kim, some on
- 18:50Jordan Smith, some on Sun JM. So yeah,
- 18:53pretty much in lock step with you. Um,
- 18:56but I will say like this is such a
- 18:58surprisingly strong field and and I
- 19:01think the fact that there's no Scotty
- 19:03has helped pricing where it it at least
- 19:06doesn't seem like anyone is massively
- 19:08underpriced or massively overpriced to
- 19:10that point. And so I think uh it's going
- 19:12to be a week where for the most part
- 19:15like
- 19:17you don't have to spend a ton of time
- 19:19thinking about ownership this week
- 19:21because as long as you're in certain
- 19:23sections of the pricing down the board
- 19:25like the the highest for example that I
- 19:28have under $8,500 is ash at 14.9% in
- 19:33single entries. So you're just not
- 19:35running into the kind of chalk that
- 19:36we've seen in past weeks.
- 19:38>> Yeah. Like I just threw up another
- 19:39version of it because you that was too
- 19:40that I saw as well like Meisner and Cole
- 19:42look like they'll pick up some steam and
- 19:44and that's just people like to play
- 19:45Meisner. The the other thing is there's
- 19:47some like weird pricing factor. So
- 19:49anyway, like just to finalize it, I do
- 19:50think Sunj's popping enough in the
- 19:52projections that we can move them up
- 19:53some like our ownership will come up on
- 19:54them for sure. Meisner and Cole are guys
- 19:56in there. Like you say, we'll be a
- 19:57little bit more spread out even up top.
- 19:59But just noting it, this type of build
- 20:02seems pretty common. And I know like you
- 20:03can get to three 9ks instead of JJ
- 20:05Spawn. Sure. You can do the Cam Young
- 20:07and then skip over the 9Ks or even play
- 20:10them. But I love what you said like the
- 20:11the other thing too is like I don't know
- 20:14how to explain like last week the field
- 20:16was
- 20:18buoied or I I guess it was like pushed
- 20:20because of Scotty Sheffler. Like you you
- 20:22added Scotty to the mix, but after that
- 20:24it was like the I think it was like
- 20:26Brian Kersner. This these people tried
- 20:27to like make fun of him and said like he
- 20:28said this event sucks and they're like
- 20:30well this event doesn't suck. It's got
- 20:31Scotty Sheffller and Tony Fee now. And I
- 20:33was like okay you just put your own foot
- 20:34in your mouth when you said that. He was
- 20:36not even being that harsh on them, but
- 20:38Kersner, but they were like saying he
- 20:40was saying, but it kind of was a rough
- 20:42field after Scotty. Like it was awesome.
- 20:44Like I I'm telling you how I was there.
- 20:45It was phenomenal to be there for
- 20:46Kovven's first win. The the atmosphere
- 20:48was electric. Like when it was Scotty
- 20:50and Hideki on Saturday, yes, Hideki
- 20:52would have been the guy I would have
- 20:52said, by the way, not Tony Fen now, but
- 20:54just noting it. Nothing against Tony,
- 20:55but that was part of it. But there was a
- 20:58lot of good DFS plays, meaning guys that
- 21:00we know and play every week and we're
- 21:02like trying to talk about. That's what I
- 21:04feel about this event. It's It's a
- 21:05little stronger up top with like yes, no
- 21:07Scotty, but Cam Young, X, Scott, Siwu,
- 21:10Quan, Clark, all like yes, much much
- 21:12better that way, but I'm seeing the the
- 21:15part that makes it more fun to me from a
- 21:17DFS perspective is okay. Well, what
- 21:20about like Deki did play good last week,
- 21:22can't Lacier, what about Nap incredible
- 21:24Sunday watching that round spawn? Okay,
- 21:27like him. Batia, he's exciting. Hoggar
- 21:29like oh wait, Thor is here still. And
- 21:31boom, I can do that for the 7K range,
- 21:33too. And then you even get into the
- 21:35sixes. And I'm not saying a lot of
- 21:36people are going to end up there because
- 21:37the standard um roster construction, but
- 21:40don't tell me people aren't thinking
- 21:41about playing some, you know, Chris
- 21:43Kirk, some Lee Hajes, some Mau people
- 21:45like Max McGrevy. Um there's a bunch of
- 21:48other names down here. Sergeant, uh you
- 21:50know, the the the conversation around
- 21:51him and Kven, right, being the two
- 21:53prospects. And then, you know, you got
- 21:54Stout out there and other guys, too. But
- 21:55just Poey and and then the other thing
- 21:58too is some of the pricing. So Bez was
- 22:02like 80 something last week. 8 Y
- 22:05>> 700. Was he? No, he was 7,900 I guess.
- 22:07Sorry. 7,900. Yeah.
- 22:08>> But he had a decent week and he drops to
- 22:1173 and some other guys around him were
- 22:13are higher now. Meisner, you know,
- 22:15missed the cut as this. Kohl's decent
- 22:17week and he's down. Graser insane Sunday
- 22:20down to 7,300. Neargard down from 77. So
- 22:23like it still changed some of the
- 22:25pricing around. And then guys like Doug
- 22:26Gim who missed the cut.
- 22:28>> Kefir missed the cut. a lot of missed
- 22:30the cut guys. Suber missed the cut.
- 22:32Pearson Cudy missed the cut. Brennan
- 22:34screwed people on Sunday. All their
- 22:35prices are down, too. So, I don't know.
- 22:37I think it's a really fun DFS slate and
- 22:39I think this is going to be good to talk
- 22:41about. Is there anything else with the
- 22:42chalk build or any of those comments
- 22:43that you want to sort of run through
- 22:44before we hop in, but I do see that like
- 22:47maybe we look at quickly a Cam Young
- 22:48version. Anything else you see?
- 22:51Not really. I think uh
- 22:55because again like ownership can be so
- 22:59spread out once you get past like JJ
- 23:02Spawn and and Ryan Gerard kind of where
- 23:04the the one thing I I do think is worth
- 23:06looking at is let's see what a build
- 23:08looks like if you try and get four of
- 23:10those top guys in instead of just three.
- 23:12So like what if you started with spawn
- 23:15nap uh Kentlay as the most expensive and
- 23:18then uh like Ben Griffin or Hideki or
- 23:22someone like that. What what does that
- 23:23leave for those final two spots?
- 23:25>> I'm going to go spawn nap can't lay
- 23:28Henley in a second. I just want to show
- 23:29something quickly though for um those
- 23:32looking at this like again I don't know
- 23:33I think we said it was spawn this is
- 23:35with a 6K guy but this is with Young and
- 23:38Godup by the way. Right. So, just of
- 23:40note, all I was trying to show is we'd
- 23:41said, what's his name? Cole. I won't
- 23:43even round it out, but you you can also
- 23:44go like if you put the Cam Young version
- 23:47in here and say, "Okay, I'm not going to
- 23:48play Spawn because he's going to be so
- 23:50popular." Well, even if you do like the
- 23:52Sunj Meisner Cole thing we did at the
- 23:54bottom, you're still in that mid and and
- 23:56I know nobody might want to l I think
- 23:58the chalk version of this was people
- 23:59said Keegan Bradley, right? And it's
- 24:01very close to the number. But just to
- 24:03note it, this is not that different from
- 24:05the build we just looked at. It's just a
- 24:06different version of it, right?
- 24:08>> Yeah.
- 24:09>> All right. All right. So, let's go back.
- 24:10Let's go. Clark, Kantlay, would you say
- 24:13God got her up? Nap or nap?
- 24:16Any of those uh top four guys.
- 24:21>> It's probably I mean just for what
- 24:23people can fit though,
- 24:25it's probably this, right? This I guess
- 24:28this would be the version of it and I'll
- 24:29let you play with it, but like Clark.
- 24:32>> Yeah. I mean, that's breakdown of it.
- 24:34And I'm going to put Novak because
- 24:36people love Novak at these. Well, they
- 24:38loved him at the John Deere Classic.
- 24:39Maybe they'll hate him here, but he's
- 24:40$7,100. So, and it looks like they will
- 24:43from an ownership perspective, but just
- 24:44to give you an idea, that's close, but
- 24:47then you will have to dip into the sixes
- 24:49if you're doing more than that with
- 24:50these AK guys.
- 24:52>> Yeah. So I I think what would happen is
- 24:53I think a lot of people would go from
- 24:55Clark there down to Hideki so that they
- 24:58can get up to Meisner or Kohl's as that
- 25:01last guy in um but but yeah so
- 25:04essentially like the the main point here
- 25:05is just this isn't difficult to do,
- 25:07right? Like you can do this while still
- 25:09playing some of the most popular uh
- 25:11quote unquote highest probability cheap
- 25:13guys. And so I I do think that we're
- 25:15going to see lineups like this as well.
- 25:17So, I just think it's an important point
- 25:19to make that like
- 25:22it just because we said, "Hey, the the
- 25:23most common lineup is going to have two
- 25:24or three of those top guys." Like, if
- 25:26your thought is, "Oh, I'm going to get
- 25:27four of those top guys instead." You
- 25:29that's that's not separating you in any
- 25:31way. So, I think this is the kind of
- 25:32lineup that we we also need to kind of
- 25:35keep in mind and try to uh leverage off
- 25:37of. And so, um so yeah, again, like I
- 25:40don't think um I don't think this is
- 25:42really a week where like roser
- 25:44construction is the way to get
- 25:45different. It's like you you actually
- 25:47have to do it by uh the the players that
- 25:50you use.
- 25:51>> Yeah, I think that's a key component
- 25:52there too because the other thing is so
- 25:53this just shows and I think now people
- 25:55have seen it enough. It's up on the
- 25:56screen or we talked through it. I mean
- 25:57this one was finished out on Kantlay
- 25:59Hideki. Uh it could have been I guess it
- 26:02could be Henley Hideki or it could be
- 26:04like Clark Ben Griffin. Whatever you
- 26:06guys decide but that's like you say
- 26:07you're not really getting that. Well
- 26:08technically I went to 38K. Like you kind
- 26:10of did but you kind of didn't. And so
- 26:12like if I'm going AK, one of my quick
- 26:14ones just, you know, early on, I would
- 26:15say for sure, actually, I'll wait
- 26:17because I'm going to save it, but I'll
- 26:18keep going through it with you here. My
- 26:20my takeaway though would be that none of
- 26:21these lineups are seeing the 6K range.
- 26:24Even if you do go all the way up to who,
- 26:27you know, is probably the most owned
- 26:28just because he's easy to fit in many
- 26:29ways. But Cam Young, uh, I don't know,
- 26:31you you could see like some of these, if
- 26:33somebody picks like a Godup, I showed
- 26:34you how easy it was to still get these
- 26:36two. You could actually see where God
- 26:37got her up is higher owned than Young or
- 26:40something just because he fits starting
- 26:43the build plus going into the build. If
- 26:45I don't know if people I don't think
- 26:48Quinn's going to stay, but if Clark gets
- 26:49love, you know what's he right now?
- 26:52Yeah, I don't know. I think I think it's
- 26:54about that. Yeah, I think it's between
- 26:55these two and it just depends on if more
- 26:57people decide to go with the balance
- 26:58version than the one we talked about.
- 27:00And then keep in mind like Alex always
- 27:01talks about if you're starting it with
- 27:04God up a lot more of those lineups are
- 27:06going to have JJ spawn
- 27:08>> because it we just showed you that's
- 27:10what oh I don't if you don't even above
- 27:11you can fit the 8K and then the more
- 27:13popular AK guys get pushed into more of
- 27:15those lineups. If you start with these
- 27:16two it's less likely that there's an 8K
- 27:19guy at all. So to Al to Alex's point,
- 27:21you can look at a bunch of different
- 27:22angles, but I think there's something to
- 27:23be said for this week for the new
- 27:26course, everything we talked about so
- 27:27far on the show, the new course, the
- 27:29roster construction thing we just
- 27:30mentioned, all these factors, the
- 27:32pricing, the DFS darlings of like
- 27:33there's so many of them in the field,
- 27:35all of that. to think about that. I
- 27:37don't know if just skill stacking but
- 27:38almost like what you think how the field
- 27:40is going to play because if you if you
- 27:43get it right there might only be a
- 27:45smaller pool like like for example and I
- 27:47know a lot of guys bomb it for sure but
- 27:48if you want I'm just going with the
- 27:49easiest one if you said okay I'm going
- 27:50to stick with bombers no matter what
- 27:52anyone says then and you've got all good
- 27:55good lineups with um the bombers you can
- 27:57make your pool that much smaller that
- 27:59much quicker to work off of if if that's
- 28:01what you decide if you said to your
- 28:03point on the splits yeah I like all
- 28:04these splits these three stand out and
- 28:07it'd be nice to have somebody who's good
- 28:08in all three of the splits that you
- 28:10mentioned, but you someone might say,
- 28:12you know what, Alex really hit home with
- 28:14me when he talked about the treelined
- 28:15setup here. So, I'm going to find guys
- 28:17within the treeline splits that also
- 28:20have good projections that also have
- 28:22good this and I'm going to stick with
- 28:23that. And then if that's right, and
- 28:25these trees do become a factor, I'm just
- 28:26throwing things out there, but you get
- 28:27what I'm saying. To me, that's where you
- 28:29get different. It might still not be in
- 28:31the end, it's always the picks in the
- 28:33result. Like I say, the the the picks
- 28:35are a result of the process, though. And
- 28:37the process to me would be how I just
- 28:38explained it. If you're right, you could
- 28:41be all the way right because you've
- 28:42already brought your player pool size
- 28:43down a ton. And I've talked about that
- 28:45for years about building in sets. That's
- 28:47how I look at it. You get to shrink your
- 28:49player pool immediately if you go with
- 28:51that angle. And I don't think this is a
- 28:53bad week to do that because this is a
- 28:55week where there's a lot of unknowns
- 28:57beyond that. And then there's a lot of
- 28:58names. So people can get overwhelmed
- 29:00with that, right? Like, well, I I like
- 29:02this guy. I like this guy. I heard this
- 29:03guy. It's a lot of that, too.
- 29:05>> Yeah. I think one of the most important
- 29:07points that you made there was like you
- 29:09want that to work directionally in your
- 29:11favor where it's not dependent on that
- 29:14thesis playing out exactly that way.
- 29:16It's like this lineup is good
- 29:18regardless. And if the the treeine
- 29:21splits end up being a really big piece
- 29:24of this or if Donald Ross courses end up
- 29:26being like even more predictive in than
- 29:27they were in the in the past here, my
- 29:30lineup goes from being good to even
- 29:32better and I'm not counting on that
- 29:35being the thing that makes it a good
- 29:37lineup. It's already a good lineup.
- 29:38That's just the thing that could take it
- 29:40over the top. So, I think that's a
- 29:41that's a really good way of putting
- 29:43that.
- 29:43>> Such a huge factor and and that's why we
- 29:45talk about this all the time, but like
- 29:46this is what DFS Mastermind is all
- 29:48about. That's the foundation. So, Alex
- 29:50and I got two things going on
- 29:51separately. And this is one of them.
- 29:52Like DFS mastermind, you can go there,
- 29:55you can join it, you can just get the
- 29:56modules for less than 50 bucks if you
- 29:58want to go start off. If you want all of
- 30:00the courses and the entire setup, you
- 30:02can get it for 4.97. You can use the 47
- 30:04bucks towards that. But that's the once
- 30:06a month round table Q&A, the Discord,
- 30:09all the pro interviews, the podcast
- 30:11feed, etc., etc. But the idea behind
- 30:13this is to teach what you just talked
- 30:14about. How it's not That's why I would
- 30:16say it's not the picks and the plays.
- 30:17It's it's not who you play, it's how you
- 30:19play them. That's the thought process
- 30:21around that.
- 30:22>> But then you take something like you do
- 30:24in your Discord with the splits and your
- 30:26your site that's up now that people can
- 30:28check out like that. That's kind of the
- 30:29setup where you can then say, "Okay, I
- 30:32learned the concept from mastermind, but
- 30:35now I'm going to go apply it via the
- 30:36other stuff." if a lot of people that
- 30:38you know just have splits or just have
- 30:39something they're just kind of guessing
- 30:40on stuff but they're not thinking about
- 30:42the roster construction in a different
- 30:43way to what you just pointed out there.
- 30:45So it's kind of like you got to combine
- 30:47those two to be able to get yourself to
- 30:49where you're like I'm playing a really
- 30:50good lineup but it also is going to be
- 30:52even better if this happens or I'm
- 30:54playing it because of this but it's
- 30:55actually good even if that doesn't
- 30:57happen. And and that's where people are
- 30:58like well if I hadn't have known that I
- 30:59would have done this or if I you just
- 31:01you might not think like that yet. And
- 31:03you'd be surprised, man, how many people
- 31:04I got to meet at the fantasy golf world
- 31:06championship that were, you know, first
- 31:07time at a live final. They just start
- 31:09explaining their process and telling
- 31:11you. And I'll tell you what, the most
- 31:12common thing that was said was, "People
- 31:16don't like to pay tuition, but in this
- 31:18game, you have to." And that was
- 31:20basically the words one guy used that
- 31:21others echoed it in a different way. But
- 31:23they said like, "Man, I I just lost a
- 31:25bunch of money and I I wanted to, you
- 31:26know, I learned the game, but I I paid
- 31:27for Discords. I paid for places that I
- 31:29could learn and I I play I paid to try
- 31:31and figure this game out just like I
- 31:33would anything else. If I was learning
- 31:34golf, I would go get a golf instructor
- 31:36and pay them money. If I want to, you
- 31:38know, learn how to drive a car, I go buy
- 31:40driving school classes and then I go be
- 31:42able to drive a vehicle and take it on
- 31:43the road. Like you you pay for that
- 31:46extra that you can sort of learn from
- 31:47others mistakes and get better and then
- 31:49you can start to learn how to apply it.
- 31:51And then that's the process of like
- 31:53playing a little bit smaller, playing
- 31:54satellites, things like that. But
- 31:56anything you want to add when it comes
- 31:57to that stuff? I know you're doing a ton
- 31:58of new and good things around DFS and
- 32:01analytics and all this stuff right now.
- 32:03>> Yeah, I I think it's a it's a cool point
- 32:06that you made there and it's it's true
- 32:07and I would say like it's true no matter
- 32:09who you are. like even you know my
- 32:12myself even you uh we are constantly
- 32:14looking for new ways to get better at
- 32:17this game to learn more to get new
- 32:19information right and so uh whether
- 32:21that's subscribing to uh a site or
- 32:24whether it's you know I'm paying $100 a
- 32:27month for you know a powerful claude
- 32:30subscription so I can go and do this
- 32:31research myself and then put it in the
- 32:33Discord and so now instead of paying
- 32:35$100 a month for Claude to do that you
- 32:38just go pay for my Discord instead and
- 32:40stuff like that, right? And so, oh yeah,
- 32:41um uh quick shout out, new site is up,
- 32:44blickanalytics.com,
- 32:46blanalytics.com.
- 32:48That's where all this stuff is. And uh
- 32:51uh you what you'll see is like all of
- 32:53the analysis, all of my slate thoughts,
- 32:55stuff like that is in the Discord. And
- 32:57then all the projections, the ownership,
- 32:59the splits are now up on the site just
- 33:01so it's a lot easier for people to
- 33:03actually see those charts. And uh
- 33:04they're they're fancy. They're kind of
- 33:06cool. It's uh it's very very kind of uh
- 33:10just neat I guess uh that I'm I'm able
- 33:12to create this stuff on online now cuz
- 33:14you know like six months ago like I
- 33:17never ever ever would have come close to
- 33:18being able to build something like this.
- 33:20So uh AI is really cool and uh it's been
- 33:23it's been a lot of fun a lot very
- 33:24rewarding kind of learning about it but
- 33:26the coolest part of it is now I get to
- 33:28share that with all the subscribers.
- 33:30It's just uh it's been really really fun
- 33:31and can't wait to continue to do more
- 33:33especially into the NFL season. Yeah,
- 33:35the Blicky. Okay, Kyle, but uh Blick
- 33:38scored is the one. Whoever came up with
- 33:39that originally, I don't know who it
- 33:40was, but that's the way uh the way to go
- 33:42on that one. I love the point you made
- 33:44about like we pay too. I I love the
- 33:46claude actually that that exact example.
- 33:47It's like again lot everybody can go I
- 33:50use this all the time with our partner
- 33:51at Sabersim or other sites that people
- 33:54use and different factors where it's
- 33:55like you can go just pay for it and
- 33:56press buttons and hope it works out but
- 33:58it's like you pay a hundred bucks
- 34:00because you h you also have experience
- 34:02now with prompting it a ton and getting
- 34:04you know the right answers out of it and
- 34:05and finding out and knowing how to
- 34:07adjust. Anybody could do that, but it's
- 34:09way better for someone to have the
- 34:10foundation. Or if you're not going to go
- 34:13pay to get the foundation, skip over it
- 34:14and move over to just paying for
- 34:16somebody who is and who already has that
- 34:18experience and has done it. And that's
- 34:19kind of the difference with that. So, I
- 34:21I love that call out, man. That's just a
- 34:22good one. We're paying for a ton of
- 34:23stuff ourselves to get better and learn
- 34:25and focus and be able to create stuff
- 34:27and do different things. Lots of people
- 34:28can do the same. Let's look at how to
- 34:30leverage this build.
- 34:32>> Yeah.
- 34:32>> So, we talked about a couple of these
- 34:33different builds that we saw. I mean,
- 34:35you don't see a lot of 6K guys, if any.
- 34:39Is it because the 6K range is just too
- 34:41weak this week, if you will, or or is it
- 34:43because you just think it's just because
- 34:44it's so unnecessary and maybe people
- 34:46will just pick a handful? I just I don't
- 34:48see very many. Maybe, you know, maybe
- 34:51sub five is what we see across the
- 34:53board. Like, what 6K guys stand out to
- 34:55you, if any? Mao, maybe Chris?
- 34:57>> I think like Howong maybe, but it's it's
- 35:03not fun down here. And like there's a
- 35:05there's a very clear kind of massive
- 35:08drop off uh in in all of my projections
- 35:11once you get into that like
- 35:14six uh yeah that upper 6k range really.
- 35:17And so I'm uh I'm very much not
- 35:20intrigued by it kind of at all. And and
- 35:23yeah, it's uh it's a it's a tough one to
- 35:25get sold on. And I think what what I
- 35:28noticed too, by the way, is like there's
- 35:31not much temptation to go down there
- 35:33because if you just look in the upper or
- 35:38in the lower 7K range, like you can find
- 35:40guys who are projected a lot better at
- 35:43pretty good ownership, too. You don't
- 35:45need to go down. Like sometimes
- 35:48everyone who's worth a damn in the low
- 35:50sevens is like, okay, well, they're
- 35:52going to be 10% on, they're going to be
- 35:5315% on, something like that. And so if
- 35:55you actually want to find a good player
- 35:58down there or at least someone who's
- 35:59like intriguing with low ownership, you
- 36:01have to go into the 6ks be because
- 36:04that's just like that you have to do
- 36:06that to avoid ownership, let alone
- 36:08looking for someone who actually has
- 36:10some real upside. This week we we can
- 36:12find all like the really good ownership
- 36:14plays we want in those low sevens. So
- 36:16there's no reason to me to to go any
- 36:18lower.
- 36:19>> Yeah, I think I love all that and agree.
- 36:21One thing I'll add though, again, this
- 36:22is obviously more large field tournament
- 36:24where that, you know, you're taking on
- 36:25the risk, but I think most people are
- 36:28inclined to go Cam Young and skip the
- 36:30nines or Cam Young with God up or and
- 36:33that and then down from there or got her
- 36:36up and down or I I definitely think a
- 36:38lot of people just say, "Oh, well, if
- 36:40I'm not going to go Cam Young, let me
- 36:41just I heard them say people are going
- 36:43to play two two NK guys, I'm gonna play
- 36:45three or four." We saw that, too. It
- 36:46wasn't like that difference. So, I will
- 36:48say that yes, this will be a little bit
- 36:50uncomfortable, but you still have 6,800
- 36:53per player when you load up like Cam
- 36:55Young with 29ks. And maybe it's not
- 36:57Conter. I used a popular one. You could
- 36:59probably get that. I mean, I know you
- 37:00can mathematically, but I'm saying let
- 37:02let's say it's this is your guys. Well,
- 37:04your average is now the low sevens and
- 37:06you might have to pick your one sixk
- 37:08guy, but we already said they're all
- 37:09going to be sub 5% for the most part,
- 37:12very likely. And it's not like you're
- 37:13saying, "Well, now I got to pick a bunch
- 37:14of It's not like picking Scotty last
- 37:17week where he comes in second and still
- 37:18is nowhere. You know, he was in the live
- 37:20final. I know he won it for the guy, but
- 37:21I'm just saying he wasn't really needed
- 37:23in all those large field tournaments
- 37:24because he was 142 and you needed to
- 37:27make extra um room for him at the
- 37:29bottom. This is an example with like Cam
- 37:32Young 29ks where you don't even have to
- 37:34go into the sixes, but if you do, you
- 37:36can you can still play around with a ton
- 37:38of lowowned guys to no owned guys in the
- 37:40sevenk range that just and by that I
- 37:42mean sub five percenters. You could get
- 37:44three sub 5enters in this lineup, no
- 37:47problem.
- 37:47>> Yeah.
- 37:48>> Not have got her up, not have Spawn, not
- 37:51have Mac Meisner and Cole and Sunj, and
- 37:54still be just fine. And this is totally
- 37:56different. And you might only be picking
- 37:58like one guy down there. But let's say
- 38:00you had a splits guy who looks good.
- 38:02Alex, I'm just going to use a popular
- 38:03one. But let's say Chris Kirk looks
- 38:05fine. Well, you now have almost 7,200
- 38:06per. You can do There's so many guys
- 38:09from 7K.
- 38:11Let's go. If I can do it this way for
- 38:14you guys on the screen like all these
- 38:16guys are pretty much going to work and
- 38:19Sunj will get a boost.
- 38:23Potguider maybe Kohl's maybe Graserman
- 38:26maybe like yeah there'll be some late
- 38:27steam on a little of these guys but
- 38:28we're talking steam to 10% maybe or
- 38:31something 11 you know like that type of
- 38:32range. So anyway you don't have to take
- 38:34them there's 20 guys around them so you
- 38:36could fill this lineup out. So I think
- 38:37one of my first thoughts is and it
- 38:39didn't even need a 6K. I just showed it
- 38:41with a $6,900 version is to go with Cam
- 38:44Young and two 9K guys as a way to get
- 38:47different up top right out of the gate.
- 38:49What do you got?
- 38:50>> I I mean down in the in the low sevens
- 38:53like as I said there there are so many
- 38:55guys who really intrigue me. You can
- 38:56start with Billy Horchel as a pivot off
- 38:58JM like his irons are as hot as anyone's
- 39:01in the world right now coming off a 13th
- 39:03place finish where he actually drove the
- 39:05ball well too. Uh, all he needs to do is
- 39:07make some putts. And historically, like
- 39:09that's not uh that's not something that
- 39:11will hold Billy Horchel down for a
- 39:13while. Eventually, he's going to start
- 39:15making putts again. So, I like him quite
- 39:17a bit. Uh, I think uh Kevin U, Michael
- 39:20Kim, you mentioned Pot Gator, um,
- 39:23Grazerman, Wallace, Kefir, Cudy, like
- 39:26there are just there's so many options
- 39:28down here that I I think that's that's
- 39:30probably how I'm going to to play the
- 39:32slate, which doesn't mean that I'm not
- 39:34going to try to get different up top.
- 39:36But like, let's remember, um, like
- 39:39currently the lowest owned guy that I
- 39:42have over $8,600 is Jackson Quinn at
- 39:4614.2% 2% in single entries. There's also
- 39:48Russell Henley at 14.4%. Like those are
- 39:52good ownership numbers relative to some
- 39:54of the guys around them who are at like
- 39:5625%. Things of that nature. But like if
- 39:59you get a a another KON win at 14% like
- 40:03that alone is not going to win you the
- 40:05tournament. You still have to be really
- 40:06good elsewhere in your lineup. So uh I
- 40:10I'm mostly just going to say, all right,
- 40:12I've got my separators down in the 7K
- 40:14range. Now I can play whoever I want
- 40:17from the upper eightks and the nineks
- 40:19and the 10ks and I'll just choose the
- 40:21guys who I think are are you know the
- 40:23most likely to have some real success
- 40:25this week and not really worry about
- 40:26ownership up top.
- 40:28>> Yeah, I think that's key to remember is
- 40:29like you said you I just used an example
- 40:31to show you could almost fill out the
- 40:32previous two with a lineup but it wasn't
- 40:33quite but it's just to show like that
- 40:35almost hits it just by picking some of
- 40:37those guys and they all fit the mold of
- 40:39what we discussed there already. So I I
- 40:42think there's a lot of different ways
- 40:43that you can go with this one, but any
- 40:45other methods you're thinking on how to
- 40:46leverage the chalk? I used like the Camy
- 40:48Young 29K guys, you just gave another
- 40:50example. Is there any other thoughts to
- 40:53um getting different this week on on
- 40:54this slate with the the last rocket
- 40:56mortgage and all the changes to the
- 40:58course? No, I think that's it because
- 41:00again like
- 41:02it it's a week I think where you you do
- 41:04it with uh the guys you play and not
- 41:07some kind of roster construction because
- 41:08I I don't number one like I don't think
- 41:10there's going to be a So put it this way
- 41:14like we know that a lot of people are
- 41:17going to load up on the upper 8k to low
- 41:1910k range right in in a major
- 41:22championship if that were happening we
- 41:24could say okay one of the ways you can
- 41:25deviate is you can go pay up for Rory or
- 41:28pay up for ROM or pay up for Scotty and
- 41:30that alone will kind of put you in in
- 41:33your own range or you can go down to the
- 41:35the low 6ks in, you know, twice instead
- 41:38of the 7K range three times. We don't
- 41:41have that, right? It's a it's a very
- 41:42condensed pricing uh kind pricing pool,
- 41:46not just a uh it's not it's not just
- 41:50like one where you have all these guys
- 41:54available at at the eights and the tens.
- 41:56Like there's there's no way around that,
- 41:57right? Like any lineup, even a super
- 41:59super balanced lineup is going to start
- 42:01in that upper 8K range. Even a quote
- 42:04unquote studs and duds lineup is going
- 42:05to start in that upper nine to 10k
- 42:08range. Like everything is just very
- 42:09similar to one another. So you can't you
- 42:12can't really deviate structure-wise this
- 42:14week. You have to do it through the
- 42:15players.
- 42:16>> Yeah. And I think we talked a lot about
- 42:17that that so we don't need to, you know,
- 42:18keep beating that one down. But to the
- 42:20point being of you you will find certain
- 42:22ranges like say like the 8K range is
- 42:24going overlooked as a whole. It's just,
- 42:26you know, it's so easy to get to Hideki
- 42:29and up and even if you include Nap and
- 42:30Spawn, like from Spawn up, it's easy to
- 42:33play three of those options together. We
- 42:34just showed multiple ways if even going
- 42:36to the very top where you could have
- 42:37like Cam Young, um, Clark and Kentlayer
- 42:40or Matsyama like we showed. So like you
- 42:42could definitely play three of these
- 42:43guys. So that's one thing. And then the
- 42:45other thing is that makes it so the you
- 42:48know 7200 and down range is kind of
- 42:52overlooked completely like almost all
- 42:54those guys because most people can
- 42:55easily land in a Meisner and above and
- 42:58whoever else you have fitting in there
- 42:59if it's you know Connors or Davis
- 43:01Thompson or whatever your chalk is there
- 43:03Cole we talked about Sunj at 7K flat
- 43:06fine he's like maybe the one down there
- 43:07but outside of that most will be sub 5%
- 43:10it gets really spread out so like Alex
- 43:12said you can just pick the plays that
- 43:14you like that fit whatever you're doing.
- 43:16But I would still be thinking of it,
- 43:17like I say, outside of that. For me,
- 43:18it's still the process of what what am I
- 43:20doing with my build and why and you
- 43:23know, how am I attacking this course and
- 43:24that to me makes it so that you land on
- 43:26your guys that fit that and it's not
- 43:29just the picks and plays, it's the picks
- 43:30and plays that go with the process
- 43:32you're using. So hopefully that helps.
- 43:34Um, let's talk a little bit about one
- 43:37and done. We we got to hit that quickly
- 43:38just because obviously one and done is
- 43:40rounding out the season. Many are just
- 43:41going down the stretch. You guys have
- 43:42your questions, you could throw them in
- 43:44there now, but what are you thinking for
- 43:45one and done as the season winds down?
- 43:47There's, you know, a lot of guys that
- 43:49people don't have remaining and now it's
- 43:51kind of like pure strategy time, right?
- 43:53There's only a few events left. If
- 43:55you're out of it, you can't just play
- 43:57the same guy everybody else is playing,
- 43:58but even if they are just the best on
- 44:00paper play.
- 44:01>> Yeah. Uh, I got news for you, by the
- 44:03way. We didn't have a leverage lane last
- 44:04week, but we had Jackson Quinn in our
- 44:07joint entry. So, last week we got a win.
- 44:10are all the way up to 416th place. So,
- 44:13we're making moves now.
- 44:16>> I just I sent my dad this morning in the
- 44:17mail one. Same one. We're 1900 and 2,000
- 44:21because we each have our own entry.
- 44:22>> Mhm.
- 44:24>> And uh what did he say for this week?
- 44:26He's He's using Jake Knap this week. He
- 44:28He likes Jake Knap. Yeah. I I don't even
- 44:32When does When does this uh end? Let me
- 44:35let me find this. So, dates it runs
- 44:38through the BMW. Okay. So,
- 44:41>> like the Rocket $10,000 purse, Windom 8
- 44:45and a half, FedEx St. Jude and BMW both
- 44:4820.
- 44:50We can we can get another Covenant type
- 44:52win. That'll help of course, but the
- 44:55position that we're in, we have to nail
- 44:58the FedEx St. Jude and the BMW. And we
- 45:00probably have to do that at fairly
- 45:02reasonable ownership. So the like the
- 45:05number one thing that I'm thinking of
- 45:07this week is let's just we we got to
- 45:10make sure that we have two really good
- 45:13options for those two weeks. So like I
- 45:16look at this board, we don't have Cam
- 45:18Left, we don't have Xander, we don't
- 45:19have Godup, we don't have Quaven, we
- 45:21don't have Henley, uh we don't have
- 45:23Hideki, we don't have Nikolai, Fowler.
- 45:26>> Who do we have?
- 45:27>> We've got Windham. We've got Seiwoo,
- 45:30Kentlay, Ben Griffin, JJ Spawn, Jake
- 45:33Knap, Ryan Gerard, Michael Thor,
- 45:35Bjornson. I'll I'll tell you right now,
- 45:36like my preference, I think, is Jake
- 45:38Knap. Uh his splits are really really
- 45:41good. Let me let me read them off. So,
- 45:43uh
- 45:453/10en of a stroke better in easy
- 45:47conditions. He gains strokes in five
- 45:49percentage points more of his rounds. In
- 45:52easy conditions, he has uh a 3.7
- 45:55percentage point boom boost. So, he's
- 45:58gaining at least I think that's 3.3
- 46:00strokes to the field. 3.7 percentage
- 46:02points more often in easy conditions
- 46:05than in all other conditions. And when
- 46:07you think of it, like how often you
- 46:09gaining 3.3 strokes in a round, right?
- 46:11It's it's not very often. So, 3.7% like
- 46:14that might be as high as a 25% boost or
- 46:16something like that. So, I I think this
- 46:18is a really really really good spot for
- 46:20Jake Knap coming off a very nice week
- 46:23for him. Uh so, yeah, I like that quite
- 46:25a bit. And yeah, exactly. How do we make
- 46:27up $13 million this week in one and
- 46:30done? And like I said, you you got to
- 46:32know the last two, right? When you're
- 46:33getting I think it's I think it's 4
- 46:35million uh for the winner in each of
- 46:37those weeks. So like eight in the last
- 46:40two is is not uh is not impossible.
- 46:43>> Yeah. Scooter said time machine heart
- 46:45went the other way. So give up. That's
- 46:47Cade said give up and try again next
- 46:49year. But I think it is interesting that
- 46:51you just look at um
- 46:54you know the setup of it and say, "Oh,
- 46:55it seems impossible." But it actually is
- 46:57possible. It's like there the big events
- 46:59exist to still make it happen. Is it
- 47:00likely? No. But is it possible? Yes.
- 47:02Kevin Garnett will tell you anything is
- 47:04possible. Alex now will tell you with
- 47:06LeBron showing up in Philly that
- 47:08anything is possible because now you got
- 47:10yourself a pretty stacked starting five
- 47:13over there for the 76ers this coming
- 47:15year.
- 47:15>> Um I think that's interesting. like
- 47:17obviously you know outside sports topic
- 47:19we're on a golf show but I will say
- 47:21really fun stuff going on in sports I'm
- 47:23getting all the football updates while
- 47:24we were live on this show it's you know
- 47:26Momes to Rice pass crossover like the
- 47:29you know stuff people are talking about
- 47:30so everyone's getting excited for
- 47:33football coming back and we will be here
- 47:34for leverage lane for that as well got a
- 47:37lot of other stuff coming. Nick says,
- 47:38"Maybe I'm the dumb one here, but I find
- 47:40it interesting that LeBen James,
- 47:42speaking of LeBron James, who we just
- 47:43talked about, misses his first cut by
- 47:45two strokes, drops to 7.3K, and now no
- 47:49one wants to play him, which is also
- 47:50funny because uh Quinn did not show up
- 47:54at his first event. Then he goes, I
- 47:56think it was T10 at the Isco and then
- 47:58goes on to win. So, not saying Ben
- 48:00Jane's going to hit that trajectory or
- 48:02that path, but it's funny about all this
- 48:04stuff. That's what I said earlier, like
- 48:06John Deere Classic. I'm not saying
- 48:07they're the exact same at all. I'm just
- 48:09because especially with the course
- 48:10changes, things just noting like these
- 48:11types of events, but like 50% of the
- 48:13field or something in these large field
- 48:15or the small field stuff wanted to play
- 48:16Andrew Novak in the fantasy golf world
- 48:18championship and now nobody wants him
- 48:20and he's at basically the same price.
- 48:22Like what do they want with him there
- 48:23that they don't want with him here? It's
- 48:24like, oh, but they just found out. Well,
- 48:26you'll you'll find out. All right. Is if
- 48:28you don't play him, then he comes back
- 48:29and crushes it again. Like anything can
- 48:30happen.
- 48:31>> Yeah. Yeah, I think with with someone
- 48:32like Ben James though, like we we should
- 48:34be reactionary because we have a small
- 48:37sample with him and so like each new
- 48:39data point is is a meaningful new data
- 48:42point, right? Like when when JJ Spawn
- 48:44has a really bad iron week, we don't
- 48:45say, "Oh, well now I don't really know
- 48:47if Spawn is a good iron player." Like,
- 48:48yeah, of course he's still a great iron
- 48:50player. With Ben James, now we have two
- 48:54very good iron performances in his last
- 48:56six, two neutral and two really bad iron
- 48:59performances. So, you know, as of last
- 49:02week, we were saying, "Oh, you know
- 49:03what? I think this guy's a really good
- 49:04ball striker. I think he's a great iron
- 49:06player." And now
- 49:08I I I'm not as confident. I'm not
- 49:10anywhere near as confident uh in his
- 49:12iron play moving forward as I was. So,
- 49:14yeah, I think it's it's not totally
- 49:17irrational to to kind of react to Ben
- 49:19James in that way. Whereas, like, let's
- 49:21say he had put up another good iron
- 49:23performance, drove it well, like he's
- 49:24he's driving it fairly well, but nothing
- 49:26special. He doesn't have distance, so
- 49:28maybe not the best fit. better fit last
- 49:30week I would say uh in that regard. But
- 49:33also like it looks like his around the
- 49:35green uh game is a is a real weakness.
- 49:37Maybe a better putter than we thought he
- 49:39was going to be. So like that that's a
- 49:42good thing. But like if if he had put up
- 49:44another really good iron performance
- 49:46last week and just couldn't make a putt,
- 49:48I would be much more inclined to agree
- 49:50and say, "Okay, yeah, I don't really
- 49:51care about the miscut. I'm I'm going
- 49:53right back to him." Because when he's
- 49:54when he's good, he seems to be uh quite
- 49:57good. So the upside's still there. I
- 49:58don't think he's a bad play in any way.
- 50:00I'm just saying like I I don't think
- 50:01it's totally irrational to not be on him
- 50:03after last week.
- 50:04>> Yeah. I think that's what people like to
- 50:06do. I guess where I'm a little bit
- 50:07different is like the sample's just too
- 50:08small because it's like you said, it's
- 50:10true every piece of the sample is new
- 50:12data and that's why you're the the data
- 50:13analytics guy, but it's like uh you
- 50:15know, you're it is nice to get more
- 50:16data, but it's also like it's just so
- 50:19how do we know like if that I mean
- 50:21honestly that's what I hated. So, I we
- 50:23were, by the way, flabbergasted when
- 50:25Kven got the 32% in the Fantasy Golf
- 50:28World Championship. Like, there was no
- 50:29reason. There was so many guys around
- 50:31him above and below. None of the
- 50:33projection sites really had him popping
- 50:34that crazy. Uh, he'd burned people in
- 50:37the FGWC already. If there was any bias
- 50:39to that, it was like it was just so wild
- 50:41that he popped to 32% and of course goes
- 50:43on to win. So, I know some people were
- 50:44tilted from that perspective, but it's
- 50:46like the sample said like bad good, but
- 50:50we know his history's amazing and his
- 50:51upside looks like, you know, incredible
- 50:53long term. But I just thought it was
- 50:55like one of those things where you just
- 50:57never know with these new guys as
- 50:59they're coming out. And we see it all
- 51:00the time over the years playing DFS.
- 51:02typically not with the new guys and it's
- 51:04more with the mo one of the other most
- 51:06common things a DFS player will say to
- 51:07me is and I'm sure you've heard a
- 51:08billion times is like of course so and
- 51:11so goes off the week after I was on him
- 51:13and it's like that's the thing but a lot
- 51:15of the times the weeks are very similar
- 51:17it's like last week to this week might
- 51:18end up being very similar but it's like
- 51:20people will just move off uh you know
- 51:21this week I'm not build the exact lineup
- 51:24but I mean you could literally put out a
- 51:26lineup that has uh Pearson Cudy Kefir
- 51:30Suber Um, who else was the other guy
- 51:33said down there? A Mac Mees Meisner.
- 51:34>> Mhm.
- 51:35>> There was couple others, but my point
- 51:37being like all those guys that people
- 51:38wanted last week and now they're not
- 51:39that nobody really wants them this week.
- 51:41It's like they all some of them actually
- 51:43played good um in round two even last
- 51:45week. And like just have you you can't
- 51:46make on those types of courses like last
- 51:48week for them. Like I know I preface it
- 51:50saying how hard it is for these guys.
- 51:51It's not hard and you cannot have a bad
- 51:53day and you only get a speaking of
- 51:55samples size you only get two days to
- 51:56have it happen. It's like [ __ ] I I just
- 51:58couldn't afford a bad day today or else,
- 52:00you know, it would have been totally
- 52:01different. So, I don't know. I think
- 52:02there's a lot of fun stuff with this DFS
- 52:04week, so I'm excited from that
- 52:05perspective. One and done. I'm good with
- 52:08um Jake Knap. Anything for the betting
- 52:11breakdown this week before we get to our
- 52:12leverage lanes?
- 52:13>> Uh actually, I don't have any outrights
- 52:16yet. Um it's on my list of like first
- 52:18things to do this afternoon. It's it's
- 52:20been a very very very busy week. Um but
- 52:23uh I I there are a couple uh comments in
- 52:25here I want to highlight. First, uh,
- 52:26Aaron, I actually like ran through a
- 52:28list of guys in the in the low sevens
- 52:30and tried to try to answer your question
- 52:31without doing it directly. Um,
- 52:34>> Scooter had a made a really good point
- 52:36kind of, uh, on um on the the ball
- 52:40striking from Ben James and how the
- 52:42approach play was really bad primarily
- 52:44because he went in the water on 18. And
- 52:47I want to say two things here. First, I
- 52:49think it's a really good idea to to kind
- 52:52of evaluate, you know, in small samples
- 52:54like does this guy look this bad because
- 52:56he was just bad throughout or was it
- 52:59like one or two outlier swings? However,
- 53:04there are two things with with Ben James
- 53:05that I think are are important here. The
- 53:07first is that wasn't the only reason why
- 53:09his approach play looked really bad.
- 53:11Even on Friday, he lost over a full
- 53:13stroke with his irons. Even if you
- 53:15exclude that water ball in 18 that cost
- 53:17him 1.8 strokes.
- 53:19>> That's what I just had up. He lost 1.8
- 53:21on hole 18, but he also lost over two
- 53:23and a like almost two and a half strokes
- 53:25across the first three holes. They were
- 53:27rough.
- 53:27>> Yeah. Yeah. It was that was that was
- 53:29ugly. The second thing that I the second
- 53:31point I want to make here is
- 53:34we don't have enough of a Ben James
- 53:37sample to kind of know this at this
- 53:38point, but we don't always want to just
- 53:41throw out those quote unquote outliers
- 53:43because
- 53:45it is very important that we find
- 53:48players who are making the correct miss,
- 53:50right? Like we we talk about this a
- 53:52bunch. Gary Woodland had a very real
- 53:54chance to win last week except for the
- 53:56fact that he made the wrong miss twice
- 53:58on 18. and he came up short in the
- 54:00water. If if he just plays 18 well
- 54:03instead of as poorly as he did, he would
- 54:05have been right there with Kovven. So,
- 54:09we we want to like there's very real
- 54:12signal is essentially what I'm saying in
- 54:14finding the players who routinely make
- 54:17the wrong miss. Now, we don't know that
- 54:19that's Ben James yet. This is a very
- 54:20small sample because he's young. I do
- 54:22think like that's uh a little bit more
- 54:24likely than than most guys. Uh but yeah,
- 54:28it's it's not something that I
- 54:29automatically want to just toss out,
- 54:31especially for a young guy. Like this is
- 54:33a okay, was was he trying? In other
- 54:37words, like we don't know what was going
- 54:39through his head. Did he select a club
- 54:41that was meant to carry twothirds of the
- 54:45way into the green and he just hit it a
- 54:48little bit high on the face and it just
- 54:49didn't carry for that reason? Maybe he
- 54:51misjudged the wind. Or was he saying,
- 54:54"Oh, I want to try and go make Eagle."
- 54:55Because I think if I remember correctly,
- 54:56that was the front left pin that was
- 54:58actually like in a bit of a bowl and if
- 55:00you landed it kind of in that front
- 55:02third of the left side of the green, you
- 55:04could get the back stop and have like a
- 55:0515 20 footer for Eagle. Was he too
- 55:08aggressive trying to do that and then
- 55:10just came up a little bit short? And so,
- 55:11you know, because we don't have that
- 55:13information, we can't possibly know
- 55:14that. Uh, I think that's an important
- 55:16thing to just say like
- 55:19I don't want to toss that out. I I want
- 55:21to take note of the fact that he made a
- 55:23really really bad miss there and we'll
- 55:26see in time if that's a consistent flaw
- 55:29of his game or if that really was an
- 55:31outlier and we should be really
- 55:33confident about his approach game moving
- 55:34forward. So I just wanted to talk
- 55:36through that kind of thing because
- 55:36that's that's the sort of thing that I I
- 55:38think gets
- 55:39>> lost a little bit when we look at PGA
- 55:41analytics, right? It's like not not
- 55:44every outlier swing is the same. We can
- 55:46learn more from some than others and
- 55:48particularly we can learn from a large
- 55:51sample of whether guys are making that
- 55:53miss or not over and over.
- 55:55>> Yeah. And I'll say this a couple things.
- 55:57One, we had the swee on 18 for Saturday
- 55:59Sunday. So I didn't get to see it on
- 56:00Friday, but I will say the Gary Woodland
- 56:03on Saturday was very painful for more
- 56:06more for him obviously. You could see it
- 56:07right on his face because you know why?
- 56:08Because it was the massive drive. He was
- 56:10much closer than expected and I was like
- 56:12there's no way like he just went in the
- 56:13water. Nobody, barely anybody was going
- 56:15in it at that point. And he couldn't
- 56:17believe it. And it was the best drive of
- 56:19the day. It was just perfect right out
- 56:20there. It's like nobody's hitting from
- 56:22there. It's like half the distance
- 56:23between where the layup guys are and the
- 56:25and the drive guys are. And it's like he
- 56:27was right in the middle of it. He hated
- 56:28himself after that one. That one really
- 56:30stung. And then another note just goes
- 56:32back to you digging into the rounds. I
- 56:34think that's why this is so important.
- 56:35Not enough people do it. It's more
- 56:36showdown related. But on on Sunday,
- 56:39Davis Chatfield or whatever I forget
- 56:42that guy's name is, but anyway, he was
- 56:44almost 30% in the round four showdown
- 56:47contest. Hubard, who started the day
- 56:50like two strokes behind him at the exact
- 56:52same price, was uh I think 6% to 28% was
- 56:56the difference in the two of them,
- 56:57right? So like three guys had them
- 56:58versus that many. So my point being
- 57:00though if you looked at Hubard and what
- 57:02I saw in round three was like Chatfield
- 57:04was all putter short game like there was
- 57:06nothing really standing out but if you
- 57:07looked at Hubard he'd made seven birdies
- 57:12only one bogey he left the par five out
- 57:15there at the end and his approach looked
- 57:16horrible but when you actually dug in it
- 57:18was the one hole it was it was 18 where
- 57:20he went into the water and lost a stroke
- 57:21and a half basically and it was like
- 57:23that to me was where I'd been in this
- 57:25spot too many times I was like I could
- 57:26play the safe guy in Chadfield or I
- 57:28could just take Hubard at this, you
- 57:30know, no ownership because of one bad
- 57:32shot. And then I looked at the other
- 57:34rounds and in round two it wasn't too
- 57:36bad. He left some power fives out there,
- 57:38but he made birdies. In round one, he
- 57:39left some power fives out there, but his
- 57:40approach was strong throughout and just
- 57:42missing with the putter. That's the type
- 57:44of stuff where when you do those deep
- 57:45dives and dig in and then know how to
- 57:46actually apply it, know how to apply it,
- 57:49have the data to use it, you're good to
- 57:51go. That's kind of the combination that
- 57:53leads to DFS success, at least in my
- 57:54opinion. So, anything you want to add
- 57:56besides that, my friend? If not, let's
- 57:58get into our leverage lane for the week.
- 58:00I'll let you go first. I
- 58:02>> think it's time for leverage lane. Uh,
- 58:03let's see. Where do I want to go here?
- 58:06Um, I think I think my leverage lane is
- 58:08going to be hammering that low 7K range.
- 58:11And I I mentioned some of these names
- 58:13already, but Cody, Kefir, Wallace,
- 58:17Grazerman, Poter, Michael Kim, Kevin U.
- 58:20All of these guys are popping like crazy
- 58:22in the GPP scores. All of these guys uh
- 58:25project pretty well. And then I'll
- 58:27probably just say, okay, well, which of
- 58:29these guys also directionally benefit
- 58:31from the splits that I'm looking at this
- 58:33week? And I'm guessing that it's not
- 58:35going to be like all seven. And
- 58:36hopefully it's two or three of them. And
- 58:38it just like makes, you know, the the
- 58:40the lineup kind of builds itself pretty
- 58:42seamlessly. But but yeah, I think that
- 58:44to me is is the range that
- 58:47really stands out is like these are the
- 58:49these are the really really
- 58:50inefficiently owned players for their
- 58:52upside. And when you think about like
- 58:54surrounded by Meisner, who I do think is
- 58:56a good play. Kohl's obviously in really
- 58:59good form. Meisner has really good
- 59:00splits as well, but
- 59:03we're talking like a quarter of the
- 59:06ownership of those guys on a lot of the
- 59:08guys that I just named. And so I I think
- 59:10that's just really really inefficient.
- 59:12Certainly when you look at like the top
- 59:1410 odds for them like Meisner,
- 59:16Graserman, Wallace, Cody, Gim, Connors,
- 59:20Suber, like all these guys are separated
- 59:22by like a percentage point at most. So
- 59:25the fact that
- 59:27those uh those two Kohl's and Meisner
- 59:29are like two, three, four times as owned
- 59:32as the guys around them with the exact
- 59:34same top 10 odds to me just seems like a
- 59:36a really kind of inefficient way to
- 59:39build down there. And so I'm going to
- 59:40try and take advantage of that for my
- 59:41levers lane. Yeah, I typically am a
- 59:43cooty truther. I always get on that.
- 59:45Don't Don't do the deep dive on his
- 59:47Friday round to see if it was just one
- 59:49hole because it was definitely not just
- 59:51one hole. That's crazy how much uh red
- 59:53you see and how dark red that is for
- 59:54some of those holes. He played poorly,
- 59:56but it could just been a bad day for
- 59:57him. I like the upside long term and at
- 59:59a course like this could be even better,
- 1:00:00especially if the splits lean that way.
- 1:00:03For me, I was trying to think about how
- 1:00:04to say this a couple different ways. I
- 1:00:06definitely think there's something to be
- 1:00:07said that like, you know, just seeing
- 1:00:08again, everybody has different stuff
- 1:00:10like the win equity is up there, but
- 1:00:13there's still some down here. And then
- 1:00:15you got a lot of other stuff in here. I
- 1:00:16wouldn't build a complete 8K balance
- 1:00:18build at all here personally. So, I
- 1:00:20guess I'll say it the other way, but I
- 1:00:21wouldn't hate if you had two or three AK
- 1:00:24guys as opposed to most lineups having
- 1:00:25zero to one with just spawn or like
- 1:00:27spawn and and something else. So, I
- 1:00:29could say it that way, but the other way
- 1:00:30I'll say it, Alex, is that I think
- 1:00:32everybody has two of these guys. And so
- 1:00:34I'll say this either I I'm only going to
- 1:00:37go one 9K and above guy. So I I'll
- 1:00:40figure it out that way and then drop
- 1:00:41into that more balanced build. So I'm
- 1:00:42not going to get stuck with like the oh
- 1:00:44you've got the most obvious 58k guy
- 1:00:46build or whatever that people. I
- 1:00:47wouldn't do that at all. But I could do
- 1:00:49like sew and then drop down and and I
- 1:00:51don't have the other guys up there and
- 1:00:53it just goes that way. But another thing
- 1:00:54I'll say is if I'm going to play two
- 1:00:56guys up above, I'm going to play a combo
- 1:00:59of the two lowest owned. So whether it's
- 1:01:01something like a Henley Kantlay, um
- 1:01:04we'll see like Seiwoo versus all of
- 1:01:06those around him. He might not end up
- 1:01:07being the lowest, but I'm thinking if if
- 1:01:09he does come in where let's say I think
- 1:01:11Quivven ends up and and our ownership
- 1:01:12updates tonight and Quivven's lowest out
- 1:01:14of everybody up there because Clark gets
- 1:01:16a boost, Sew gets a projections boost,
- 1:01:18Xander's squeezed, but it's just the
- 1:01:20squeeze boost like he's still going to
- 1:01:22be at a big number. Well, then I would
- 1:01:23probably think about playing like you
- 1:01:25could do like a Quoven Henley or
- 1:01:27something and you know something like
- 1:01:28that's going to be completely unique
- 1:01:29where I'm not saying to go away from
- 1:01:31this upper range, but I'm saying it in a
- 1:01:34different way that that would still put
- 1:01:35me into the 8Ks where I'm going to have
- 1:01:37at least two 8Ks. So, the the best way
- 1:01:38to probably say it is 28K plus and most
- 1:01:42likely in those two AKs not going to
- 1:01:43include spawn for my main lineup when I
- 1:01:46do it. I've got a couple other guys in
- 1:01:47there that I like. So, not a full
- 1:01:49balance build, but a couple different
- 1:01:51ways that I'm thinking about it. If not,
- 1:01:52you don't like that way. The one I gave
- 1:01:54away earlier was in consideration as
- 1:01:55well where I said it's like Cam Young
- 1:01:5729Ks and then get different down low.
- 1:02:00That's another great way that I think
- 1:02:01you can go this week, too. So, there's a
- 1:02:03couple for you guys for this week. Alex,
- 1:02:04let the people know everything else
- 1:02:05you've got going on. You talked about
- 1:02:07blickanalytics.com and all that, but
- 1:02:09you've got tons of other stuff. It's
- 1:02:10been a busy couple of weeks for you, my
- 1:02:12friend. So, let them know where they can
- 1:02:13find you, what you've got going on, and
- 1:02:14then we'll get out of here. Yeah, I
- 1:02:16think I I mentioned it on Pat's show
- 1:02:18last week, but I I can't remember if
- 1:02:20I've mentioned it yet on Leverage Lane,
- 1:02:22but um now that all of the ownership
- 1:02:24projections, all of my projections, and
- 1:02:27all of my GPP scores are available
- 1:02:30through my Discord atlickytics.com,
- 1:02:33uh the price will go up for the NFL
- 1:02:35season, but anyone who gets in before
- 1:02:38September will be locked into the
- 1:02:40current price forever. So, use promo
- 1:02:42code leverage. You get 10% off and you
- 1:02:45get locked into the current price
- 1:02:47forever.
- 1:02:48It's it's a really good deal. And and I
- 1:02:50mean, we're just doing so many really
- 1:02:52exciting things over here in the Discord
- 1:02:53and I know you're in there, Pat's in
- 1:02:55there, and it's it's been a ton of fun.
- 1:02:57I I I've already teased it a little bit,
- 1:02:59but like the NFL roster construction
- 1:03:02data project that I did, like I I've
- 1:03:04already done this for MLB, and it's been
- 1:03:06it it's it's led to a really really good
- 1:03:09MLB season for me so far. And I know a
- 1:03:11lot of my subscribers have said the same
- 1:03:13thing, like as soon as the MLB roster
- 1:03:15construction data came out, like it was
- 1:03:17just kind of automatic, like they've had
- 1:03:19the the best uh MLB season of their
- 1:03:21lives. I expected similar results for
- 1:03:25the NFL roster construction analysis,
- 1:03:27which is like, hey, if we do this, it's
- 1:03:29a bit of an it's a bit of an advantage.
- 1:03:31If we do this, it's a bit of an
- 1:03:32advantage. And if we add up these subtle
- 1:03:34advantages, they can create a pretty
- 1:03:35good advantage for us. The NFL roster
- 1:03:38construction analysis showed like there
- 1:03:40are massive inefficiencies that people
- 1:03:42are doing. They're not building certain
- 1:03:44stacks anywhere near often enough.
- 1:03:46They're doing certain things way too
- 1:03:48often. We put these together. Like I
- 1:03:52can't wait for the NFL season. So trust
- 1:03:54me, you guys want that data. It's
- 1:03:56available exclusively in the Discord. So
- 1:03:58uh I'll see you in there. And and like I
- 1:04:00said, use promo code uh leverage for 10%
- 1:04:02off. that that discount is every single
- 1:04:06time it renews, you get that same 10%
- 1:04:09off and you're getting 10% off of the
- 1:04:11grandfathered in price. So, now's the
- 1:04:13best time to uh to get in there for
- 1:04:15sure.
- 1:04:16>> Yeah, you you want the data, you want
- 1:04:17that stuff. Like Alex said, I'm over in
- 1:04:18the Discord. It's a ton of cool uh
- 1:04:20information and specifically with NFL
- 1:04:22just getting us even more excited for
- 1:04:23that. Only part one's out. I've read it
- 1:04:25twice and it's a lot, but it's very good
- 1:04:27and I'm excited for part two. So, like I
- 1:04:29said before, guys, if you want to learn
- 1:04:30how to play the game first and get that
- 1:04:32down, mastermind is the place to go.
- 1:04:33It's onetime payment. There's no monthly
- 1:04:35or any recurring. You can pay less than
- 1:04:3650 bucks. Gets, you know, do what I've
- 1:04:38taken thousands of hours to learn and
- 1:04:40and learn it in a day and a nineto-ive
- 1:04:42shift, if you will, of like a Saturday.
- 1:04:43It's seven hours of courses that you can
- 1:04:45go through, but they're actual modules
- 1:04:46where it teaches you like each category.
- 1:04:48There's 20 categories to break it down.
- 1:04:50You can listen to it on podcast feed.
- 1:04:52It's less than 50 bucks. If you want
- 1:04:53shipnation, go to shipnation.com. You
- 1:04:55could still get the first month
- 1:04:57including Saber Sim for less than 50
- 1:04:59bucks as well. These are all small costs
- 1:05:01to pay as part of that tuition. I just
- 1:05:02talked about earlier hanging out with
- 1:05:03some of the best DFS players in the
- 1:05:05entire world at least with PGA DFS at
- 1:05:07Fantasy Golf World Championship. All
- 1:05:09saying the same thing that you pay for
- 1:05:11your education, you pay to get ahead.
- 1:05:13It's to skip steps. It's to learn
- 1:05:14things, learn how to apply them. Get
- 1:05:16with Alex, get with Shipment Nation, get
- 1:05:18the data, learn how to actually use that
- 1:05:20data to your advantage to create your
- 1:05:21own process and not just follow somebody
- 1:05:23else's picks and plays, and that's going
- 1:05:25to put you in the position to find more
- 1:05:27success. But even when you do come up
- 1:05:29short, like we talked about my fantasy
- 1:05:30golf world championship, we put a bow on
- 1:05:32it all here, 18th place. Yeah, I would
- 1:05:34much rather a podium finish, but it's
- 1:05:37you got to get in the event first. That
- 1:05:38takes a lot of the stuff to get there.
- 1:05:40And then you can only be putting
- 1:05:42yourselves in those positions. the more
- 1:05:43often you put yourself in there, the
- 1:05:44more the opportunity exists to give
- 1:05:46yourself a shot to hit one of those
- 1:05:47life-changing scores or the events that
- 1:05:49you want to see happen. So, check us
- 1:05:51out. We'll be back next week for the
- 1:05:53Windham, the final event before the
- 1:05:55playoffs, right? We've got that coming
- 1:05:57up. So, next week, same time, Wednesday,
- 1:05:5910:30 a.m. Eastern. That's going to do
- 1:06:00it for this week, guys, for Alex and for
- 1:06:02myself, Totag and Tambo. Good luck in
- 1:06:04your contest this week. Let's ship it.
- 1:06:10Heat. Heat.
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