Robert Pape: Iran wants to 'wreck the Trump presidency politically and irreversibly' — Transcript

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1. 0:00Let's unpack what's next and the impact
2. 0:02on the midterms with political science
3. 0:04professor at the University of Chicago
4. 0:06who is also the author of the escalation
5. 0:08trap substack Robert Pape. Also with us,
6. 0:11former foreign policy adviser to
7. 0:12President Trump and Newsmax foreign
8. 0:14policy analyst, Dr. Wed Ferris.
9. 0:16Professor Pape, let's start with you.
10. 0:18This war is now deeply unpopular with
11. 0:20many Americans. With control of Congress
12. 0:23now at stake, why do you say we could be
13. 0:26in for what's called an October surprise
14. 0:29right before the midterms?
15. 0:32>> Well, we should also remember the term
16. 0:33October surprise actually came from
17. 0:36Ronald Reagan's campaign manager talking
18. 0:38about Iran's October surprise uh related
19. 0:42to the hostage crisis in 1980. So, I've
20. 0:44been warning Lydia uh for some time now
21. 0:47that Iran isn't just escalating military
22. 0:50pressure in some random way. They are
23. 0:52doing it uh in the run-up to the
24. 0:54midterms in order to wreck the Trump
25. 0:57presidency politically and irreversibly.
26. 1:01Lydia, I want to be very clear what I
27. 1:03think Iran's goal is. And the October
28. 1:05surprise that I've now been warning
29. 1:07about is Iran may move ever closer and
30. 1:11may actually test nuclear weapons in
31. 1:14October. And why do I say that? Well, as
32. 1:17we have been reporting, you have been
33. 1:19reporting for weeks now, um we have
34. 1:21increasing activity at Pickax Mountain.
35. 1:25Just in the last few days, uh the uh
36. 1:28national the security council uh supreme
37. 1:31national security council leader Ranzai,
38. 1:33the top military person in Iran has been
39. 1:37talking about with Iran withdrawing from
40. 1:39the non-prololiferation treaty. Well,
41. 1:42these are steps essentially preparing
42. 1:45the ground for exactly what I'm talking
43. 1:49about. And the timing of this, I worry,
44. 1:52would be perfectly timed in order to do
45. 1:56maximum political damage to the Trump
46. 1:59administration.
47. 2:00>> Wow. This is so this is not a
48. 2:02coincidence that this is happening now.
49. 2:04This is also a political war. Dr. Wi,
50. 2:07why is President Trump such a threat to
51. 2:10the Iranian regime that they are trying
52. 2:12to destroy him politically and weaken
53. 2:14him?
54. 2:15>> It is very simple, Lydia. We had those
55. 2:17conversations. I remember in February
56. 2:19already and we projected at the time
57. 2:21that the strategic goal of the Islamic
58. 2:24regime in Iran at the time was to delay
59. 2:27and delay and delay as long as possible
60. 2:30and we use the term the term elections
61. 2:32as a you know a center and time for them
62. 2:36to basically escape the strike. All what
63. 2:38they've done over the past 9 months or
64. 2:41so was to escape strikes, military
65. 2:45strikes and on the other hand escape a
66. 2:47revolution because military strikes and
67. 2:49a revolution will be the perfect recipe
68. 2:51for them to actually collapse. Now we
69. 2:54are so close. I don't think now we can
70. 2:56change strategies between now and
71. 2:58November elections. But uh as it's been
72. 3:01said at this point in time, they could
73. 3:03pull a lot of surprises. We have a whole
74. 3:06roster of them. One of which the
75. 3:08scenarios mentioned by the professor
76. 3:10which we mentioned as well here on your
77. 3:12show is to detonate maybe not a huge
78. 3:16hydro uh you know atomic one but a
79. 3:19tactical nuke a tactical nuke. My my
80. 3:22projection was that they have it or at
81. 3:24least they bought it. Where did they
82. 3:26store it inside Iran? outside. We don't
83. 3:28know. But that could could have a huge
84. 3:30effect on our midterm elections or or
85. 3:33also manipulate a situation where they
86. 3:36blow up something in the west or in the
87. 3:38region and say this is the fault of
88. 3:41Donald Trump and then pass the ball to
89. 3:43the opposition here just before
90. 3:46>> right and and we you know to what you're
91. 3:49saying uh doctor professor we are seeing
92. 3:52this conflict now escalating across the
93. 3:55region. the Iranbacked Houthi rebels
94. 3:57attacking Saudi oil infrastructure in
95. 3:59the Red Sea, shooting down a Saudi F-15,
96. 4:02escalating attacks on American allies.
97. 4:04So this escalation again is is also to
98. 4:08take out Trump politically. Would the
99. 4:10worst if we were say to back off because
100. 4:12that's what a lot of Americans say. We
101. 4:14need to just pull out, end this war,
102. 4:15mind our own business. Why, professor,
103. 4:18would that actually be the worst thing
104. 4:20the president could do? And what advice
105. 4:22would you give the president what he
106. 4:23should do next?
107. 4:25Number one, the fundamental fact is
108. 4:28America has a strategic interest in
109. 4:31stability in the Persian Gulf. Because
110. 4:34if Iran becomes the regional hedgeimon
111. 4:37and becomes the fourth center of world
112. 4:39power as it has been doing, it is likely
113. 4:43next step to start toppling governments.
114. 4:46Riad now in just in the last few weeks
115. 4:50that uh has suddenly become a concern
116. 4:52where it was not a concern before. Um
117. 4:55and this is something that we need to
118. 4:57expect is going to go on. The most
119. 4:59important thing to understand, Lydia, is
120. 5:02that um there have been cavalier
121. 5:04discussions that President Trump well
122. 5:06we'll just use a tactical nuclear
123. 5:08weapon, right? I want to be very very
124. 5:10clear here. The consequences of the
125. 5:13United States or Israel using a tactical
126. 5:16nuclear weapon in this situation would
127. 5:19be catastrophic
128. 5:21for the American economy. Just imagine
129. 5:24who's exactly going to buy our Treasury
130. 5:28bonds for months after we would do that.
131. 5:32This these scenarios that are being
132. 5:34discussed very big. President Trump, on
133. 5:37the other hand, is about to give a
134. 5:38speech at the UN on Tuesday, and that is
135. 5:42an opportunity now to do what Ronald
136. 5:46Reagan may have done, which is to double
137. 5:49down on the non-prololiferation treaty
138. 5:52and start talking seriously about the
139. 5:56consequences in the Middle East of the
140. 5:59dominoes falling here. Because once you
141. 6:03have Iran move to an actual nuclear
142. 6:05weapon, there are going to be a whole
143. 6:07series of con dominoes including Turkey.
144. 6:10So this is not something that we should
145. 6:13just sort of say, "Oh yes, we've just
146. 6:15going to do this big thing." Big mistake
147. 6:17here. What we should be doing is we
148. 6:20should be looking at this strategically,
149. 6:22more comprehensively. And President
150. 6:25Trump, I don't care what his speech was
151. 6:27written for, he has two days. And that
152. 6:29speech on Tuesday could fundamentally
153. 6:32shape our world
154. 6:35>> and hopefully get more allies. Right. He
155. 6:38to
156. 6:39>> Exactly, Lydia. This is the what I'm
157. 6:41saying. Ronald Reagan did not win the
158. 6:43Cold War by by bombing Moscow. He won
159. 6:47the Cold War by thinking strategically.
160. 6:50He surrounded himself with fifth degree
161. 6:53black belts who actually won the Cold
162. 6:56War. Wasn't just tough talk. It was
163. 6:59tough real real outcomes.
164. 7:01>> Prof.
165. 7:02>> Professor Pap, Dr. Ferris, thank you
166. 7:04both. Thank you.
167. 7:05>> Thank you.
168. 7:08>> Information
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170. 7:13is freedom
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