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Risk On Continues for Bitcoin and Altcoin Market as XRP, ETH, BTC & Alts Close Quarter Positive — Transcript

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0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
0:23at the Bitcoin price chart along with
0:25the total market cap of the
0:26cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin
0:29continues humming along being rangebound
0:31for about 10 or 11 days right now. But
0:34still really kind of continuing to hum
0:36along right on track of what you would
0:38expect as we're just kind of climbing
0:39back up a wall of worry here in the
0:41cryptocurrency market. You got XRP
0:43sitting down there at a $154 still
0:46bucking up against its 50WE moving
0:48average. So we'll kind of talk about
0:50this for a minute too. Otherwise, we're
0:52really just kind of moving along right
0:53on Q as we historically do and really
0:56how you would expect. After we hit the
0:57300WE moving average, we've now gotten
0:59through the 50WE moving average and we
1:01went ahead and did a completely
1:04full-sized bare market throughout here.
1:06Now, we're just in that wall of worry
1:08climb. Where will ranges start to build?
1:11How long will it take for us to get out
1:12of here? Those are the things we all
1:14speculate on and everybody wants to
1:15hear. incoming outrageous price targets,
1:18all those types of things right now as
1:20sentiment has clearly turned a corner
1:23after going through the depths of fear
1:25and extreme fear. Now to be entered back
1:27into greed for the first time since
1:29really back over in here since August of
1:312025 and just briefly there in October
1:35as you guys all know when the crowd kind
1:37of went a little wild and a little
1:38offsides right there at that up thrust
1:40after distribution for Bitcoin right up
1:43in here. But we do finally see some
1:45greed returning. These things always
1:47happen. We talked about it down in the
1:48depths of despair. Don't worry, it will
1:51come back and it's hard to realize it
1:53when you're right there in the thick of
1:54the moment and when you're at the max
1:56pain point rarely there of the market.
1:59But everything really just seems to be
2:01fine in this market. There haven't
2:02really been a whole lot of developments
2:04throughout this week to highlight to say
2:06something crazy happened. We're really
2:08kind of like right where we were last
2:10week. Although last week we did pull
2:12back a little bit to close the week. You
2:14can see this week it has climbed up just
2:15a little bit trying to produce the third
2:17candle close in the green after breaking
2:20through the 50week moving average. Of
2:22course highlighting every time we break
2:24through the 50week moving average. We
2:25are back into a riskon environment. It
2:29doesn't mean we won't have corrections.
2:31We won't see liquidations. They
2:32absolutely will come. New ranges will
2:34develop. But the context shifts from top
2:37bare market bottoming to now risk on.
2:40The thing with risk on is they can just
2:42take some time to work their way out and
2:44get their way up. The thing everyone has
2:46to focus on is just managing their own
2:47time expectations. Everybody wants it to
2:49happen very quickly. And while I'd love
2:51to tell you it's going to happen
2:52quickly, and I do think it'll happen
2:54faster than historical cycles. Like from
2:57this point it's usually about 85 weeks
2:59from breaking from the 50we moving
3:01average to actually being able to go
3:03into expansion. I think back in 2023 24
3:07was 86 weeks. Back here in 2019
3:12to 2020 it was 85 weeks, right? So we
3:15definitely get excited. We definitely
3:17want to hear, hey, we're going to the
3:18moon right away. Um I don't think it's
3:20going to take this long. I I've
3:21highlighted that many times due to this
3:23that Russell that was really holding us
3:26down that breadth struggle that was
3:27happening throughout macro markets
3:29compared to now that we have just such a
3:31massive divergence that needs to kind of
3:33close the gap throughout here along with
3:35that IGV. I just definitely don't see
3:37this taking you know way out till 2028
3:40to be able to get out of there. I think
3:41we'll do this faster than what we're
3:43used to and that playing the timing game
3:45is going to be a fool's errand. I think
3:46everybody can probably acknowledge that
3:48now. If you tried to play the timing
3:50game at the top, you got yourself
3:51wrongfooted. If you tried to play the
3:53timing game down here at the bottom, you
3:54got yourself wrongfooted. So sometimes
3:56you have to have a little bit of
3:58humbleness or humility on timing and
4:00just acknowledge the market's going to
4:02move at its own pace. But even moving at
4:04a velocity like this, I think it'd be
4:06reasonable to think, you know, somewhere
4:08in the middle of 2027, we could be
4:10trying to go and hit those new all-time
4:12highs there for Bitcoin. I'll take
4:14something sooner. But, you know, that
4:15seems to be a more reasonable analogy
4:18between what we're doing here in the
4:20market and what we've historically done.
4:21But, I could see us seeing price action
4:24and excitement happen prior to, of
4:26course, getting to 2027 potentially here
4:28in 2026. Just kind of even the velocity
4:31that even XRP has moved at in here. So,
4:33we're stuck at this 50week moving
4:34average for XRP. It's at a buck 53 right
4:37now. you know, based on all of our past
4:39bare markets that we've gone through for
4:41XRP, it has still just chugged along
4:44right on pace, right? It's hard to
4:45believe here we are in October of 2026.
4:49This is November of 2024. I think I kept
4:52saying while we were throughout all of
4:54this stuff is I'm like I people are
4:55trying to think that this bare market
4:57started right in here back in October,
4:59but the reality is the bare market
5:01actually began way back in here. uh we
5:03are already correcting throughout here
5:05throughout the crypto market and for
5:07Bitcoin and for most altcoins but even
5:09at this velocity of where the peak is
5:11how capitulations happen when you see
5:14little pops show up in here and the
5:16timings of these things right that I
5:18just wouldn't be surprised it's still
5:19this year here in 2026 that we could see
5:22price get as high as like 250 and I got
5:24to be careful with the XRP community
5:26because there are so many YouTubers and
5:28influencers who are telling you $1,000
5:30that I don't mean $250 I $2.50.
5:35That would be really the range boundary
5:37area for XRP to try to build a new range
5:39and then try to get to expansion. And
5:41like I've talked about in past videos,
5:44right? Typically, this is going to be
5:45our area. We're going to pause out
5:47throughout in here. This is more so just
5:49a ricochet happening off the lows and
5:52the market being incredibly offsides.
5:54Everybody trying to pour back in and get
5:56back in realizing, wait a minute, yeah,
5:58we've done everything that's already
5:59done. A bare market throughout in here.
6:01We went oversold way back over in here.
6:03We've already had our FTX moment. Uh
6:05these day these were 144 days apart
6:08between the capitulation phase and FTX
6:11collapsing and the capitulation phase
6:13and then Michael Sailor selling the
6:14literal low. Exactly 144 days apart and
6:17then of course we go do everything to to
6:19symbolize this. So people are waking up
6:20to it. People are trying to pour back in
6:22and get positions and all that stuff,
6:24right? I think even for the the October
6:26people, right? the September October 40
6:28to 50k crew. You know, today is now
6:30October 2nd. Uh this market obviously
6:32topped back there I believe on October
6:344th. Let's get the exact date. October
6:367th, right? So you've got less than a
6:38week now. And of course, if you go back
6:40and you measure all of these things,
6:41they're usually like there's November
6:4311th of 2021. You know, here's November
6:4620th. FTX collapses right in here. Same
6:48thing like November 11th. You go back
6:50throughout here, the peak of Bitcoin
6:52happened there on December 17th, whereas
6:54the altcoin market continued rampaging.
6:56But I know everybody uses Bitcoin but
6:58December 17th and then of course the
7:00bottom comes in here December 14th. So
7:02but you know if you listen to my
7:03argument down there when we were at the
7:04bottom my argument was the top of
7:05Bitcoin was actually right here August
7:0814th and that this was merely an
7:10upthrust after distribution and the
7:11altcoin market didn't cooperate with it.
7:14That was the literal peak in August and
7:16that's why we ricocheted off the lows in
7:18August. But you know when it comes to
7:19October you don't have many days left
7:21right for the for the October stuff. I
7:23think everybody's kind of capitulated on
7:25those dates. But the point I'm making of
7:27all of this is that the money coming
7:28back in, it's not like it's it's an
7:30actual expansion happening right now or
7:32like XRP people wanting to see the price
7:34absolutely skyrocket and go into new
7:36all-time highs. Believe me, I'm right
7:38there with you, man. But, you know, it's
7:39just kind of important to understand the
7:40context of where we're at. This is
7:42coming off the lows. This is a lot of
7:44wrong footing. There's a lot of money
7:45trying to come back in right in here. Uh
7:47it's not like we're in an expansion,
7:49which you would obviously see over here
7:51on the IGV happening at the same time.
7:53The IGV is stuck in that same area that
7:56we're talking about in here for Bitcoin.
7:58This is the capitulation zone in here.
8:00That's where IGV is all stuck throughout
8:02in here while Bitcoin's trying to do the
8:03catch-up trade right now. The Bitcoin
8:05dominance is still stuck. So, this tells
8:07you exactly what's going on. that this
8:09is the whole market rebounding,
8:11repricing, readjusting to the psychology
8:14of believing that the low was not going
8:16to hold and that we were going to see 40
8:17to 50, but that money is just kind of
8:19pouring back in everywhere or getting
8:20itself repositioned. Not necessarily
8:23that we have like an expansion of what
8:25happens during all seasons where the
8:26Bitcoin dominance really collapses
8:28throughout in here. So, we have to
8:29understand that context and being like,
8:31okay, look, there's no movement
8:32happening here in the Bitcoin dominance.
8:35So, our context is that the whole market
8:37is retracing. We're going to find a
8:39range and then once we can try to get
8:41our way out of here with macro markets,
8:43that's going to be where we can try to
8:45find things of expansions, altcoins
8:48pumping, XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum,
8:51everything, right? And so, still, I
8:52don't see anything telling us we're like
8:54ready to stop here just yet or that
8:56we're not going to continue climbing a
8:57little bit higher. Uh, but I think my
8:59main focus, of course, is just kind of
9:01keeping those expectations set because
9:02everybody has these time preferences
9:04that they do follow. And if we were on
9:06something where it would be like XRP, it
9:08is time you may send like in 2024, you
9:11know, I I would be looking for macro
9:12markets to be telling us that. Bitcoin
9:14setting a new all-time high. There's
9:16confluence. There's some type of event
9:18happening and there's just a lot of
9:19things all lined up together. We're just
9:22not there yet at this phase. This is us
9:24ricocheting off the low. Then we'll come
9:26the new range and then we're looking for
9:28macro to all break out together. And
9:31like shown, the way that makes the most
9:32sense to me is just if we just do do
9:35something like this where we're just
9:36kind of ranging throughout in here and
9:38it's this moment in time where we're
9:39looking for something to say Bitcoin can
9:41go back to the high and then right in
9:43here, this phase is very specific in the
9:46past two cycles that there's something
9:48that happens in the market that
9:49convinces people this is the Bitcoin
9:51only show. You'll have the Bitcoin maxis
9:54screaming, why would you own any
9:55altcoins? Look at how much pain you're
9:57in. Look at Bitcoin. We're killing it.
9:59We're amazing. And then the crowd starts
10:01to actually believe in it and kind of
10:02capitulates and and shifts all their
10:05stuff into Bitcoin. And then it's once
10:07that break happens, that's where the
10:08altcoins end up doing their stuff. And
10:11so what I'm trying to do is prevent like
10:12too much hype without being a wet
10:15blanket, without being Debbie Downer and
10:17saying, "Yes, look at this. This is
10:19awesome. We've got everything that we
10:20need to come off the lows, right? We
10:22came in and swooped off of that 300week
10:24moving average. We busted through the
10:2550week moving average. This is all
10:27excellent stuff. This is usually where
10:29we range ourselves out for a little
10:31while and then we're going to wait for
10:32macro to come in and cooperate to push
10:34us up in here and then that's where you
10:36see alt season. And until then, you
10:38know, we're just kind of, you know,
10:40humming along in this kind of stuff
10:41right in here. It's all great. It's all
10:43wonderful. Just trying to kind of
10:45present it from, you know, that most
10:47realistic light of what we see usually
10:49from that pre-capitulation range that
10:51ends up happening for markets that
10:53there's usually a stall out that happens
10:54in there like I've highlighted from past
10:56market cycles where you have your
10:58pre-capitulation range, you break
11:00through that 50week moving average, but
11:02then still there is some ranging that
11:04happens throughout in here. And so we
11:05just have to be mindful of it while at
11:07the same time still being allowed to,
11:09you know, be optimistic and excited that
11:11the market has turned the corner, things
11:12are better. We've gone a full-size bare
11:14market. We've done all the technicals,
11:16all the onchains for a reversal to
11:18happen. It's just usually when we kind
11:20of get to these types of phases
11:21throughout here, we all kind of get
11:22ahead of ourselves. We start kind of
11:24counting our chickens or counting our
11:25eggs before they've hatched because
11:27we've spent so much time down here in
11:29the fear and the extreme fear that once
11:31we have just a simple taste of that
11:33greed in there, you know, our time
11:34preferences all shift. And I think my
11:36job is just to come on here and say,
11:38"Hey, look, you know, this is how things
11:39typically go." And yet, I mean, it's
11:41still at the same time, it's really
11:43exciting, right? Frankly, I'm excited
11:45with the idea of it not taking 85 to 87
11:47weeks after the 50week moving average
11:50breaks, right? I think we could do it a
11:52lot faster than that. But it's important
11:53to remember this isn't like a meme coin,
11:55right? It isn't like an illlquid $50,000
11:58meme coin or a million dollar memecoin
12:00that an influencer can tweet about and
12:02pump and dump. It's a major market,
12:05right? in major markets tend to move a
12:07little bit slower than our time
12:08preferences, but at the same time, it
12:10still just looks fantastic. And frankly,
12:12I would rather have my expectations set
12:15and grounded in a way that's more
12:18realistic to past historical behavior of
12:21the market than to have my expectations
12:24set that we're going to moon today. And
12:26then that doesn't happen and you get
12:28disappointed because if you don't
12:30realize it, right? If let's say the
12:32price, just imagine an asset that goes
12:34to $100 and then it crashes down to 30,
12:38right? 100 and it crashes down to 30.
12:41That doesn't feel good. But you could
12:43have an asset that never does that. But
12:45you have somebody who believes, well,
12:47this thing's $10. They're believing this
12:50is coming and this is coming in 3 days,
12:53right? In 3 days it's going to go to
12:55100. And then they they 3 days pass,
12:57four days pass, 5 days pass, and this
12:59thing's just $11. Well, they
13:01psychologically went through that and it
13:03never happened. So, there's this like
13:05psychological impact of them believing
13:07in this like false reality that they
13:09were at 100 and they never were and then
13:11they they're back down at 11 and they're
13:13just like disappointed and sad and it's
13:15like they went through this big crash,
13:17right? And it was only their psychology
13:18that did that. They allowed them that to
13:20happen to themselves. But it happens all
13:22the time and I think we saw a lot of
13:23that last year, right? I think a lot of
13:25that's happening right now with this
13:27whole $1,000 per XRP stuff. And you
13:29know, I'm not going to fight that
13:30battle, man. Like, I'm okay with it.
13:32Whatever. I as long as you guys know, I
13:34don't believe that'll ever come anywhere
13:37remotely close to that number. But, you
13:39know, that's not my fight to pick or my
13:41fight to be a part of. And, you know,
13:43when I think about it, like, you know, I
13:45remember back in 2020, 20, uh, we were
13:48just coming out of C19, the price of
13:50Bitcoin was like $5,000, $6,000. My
13:53price target was 60, 70, $80,000 for
13:56Bitcoin. And people were, you know,
13:57really scared at that time. And then
13:58people were saying, "How could anybody
14:00ever pay 6070 $80,000 for a Bitcoin?"
14:04And I said, "You know what? It's just
14:05the magic of charts. We get to that
14:074.236 extension and suddenly everybody
14:09believes it and people will buy it and
14:11it's the craziest thing." And sure
14:12enough, once we got there, it was like
14:14a, you know, Wall Street Bets, Elon
14:16Musk, Tesla just added Bitcoin to their
14:18balance sheet above $30,000 and and like
14:20there just becomes all these reasons and
14:21everything like that. And and the truth
14:23is, you know, if XRP does ever get to
14:25seven, eight n $10, who's going to pay
14:27for that? Who's going to buy it? Well,
14:30there's an entire marketing machine out
14:31there trying to tell these these crowds
14:33that they're going to get $1,000. And
14:35so, they'll be the buyers. So, hate it
14:37or love it. You know, there's got to be
14:39the other side of the liquidity at some
14:41point, right? And if they want to if
14:42they want to be in charge of that, by
14:44all means, they can be. Um, otherwise,
14:47I'll try to stick to things that are
14:48just a little bit more realistic. And
14:50I'll still I'll appreciate the thousand
14:52call stuff because I frankly I think
14:54we're going to need it at some point.
14:56We're going to need that liquidity and
14:57and that belief to happen at some point.
14:59So, uh otherwise when we just stick to
15:01charts, you know, we're stuck underneath
15:02the 50, we're trying to get to a new
15:04range here for XRP. Uh the irony is that
15:07back there in 2015 and over here in
15:1120123, those things kind of moved right
15:13on target, which would have been kind of
15:14like December. I I definitely am not
15:16here to predict December. Don't even
15:18bother asking me in markets in the
15:20morning. Do you still think it's going
15:21to take until December? No, absolutely
15:23not. These are just I I find irony in
15:25these things in here. Uh otherwise, it
15:27is the same stuff for all of this.
15:29Trying to work our way back up, continue
15:31the wall of worry. And in the end, the
15:34the major thing that would get me
15:35thinking, hey man, this thing could
15:37start moving quick. uh we have a lot
15:39more elements in our favor macro wise uh
15:41would be of course if that IGV just
15:44suddenly decides to start busting its
15:46way out and actually sees a true
15:47expansion take place in there.
15:49Otherwise, we look great. We're marching
15:50along. No big changes in the last week.
15:52Just kind of reiterating thoughts and
15:54things that I'm seeing over here on the
15:56charts and in the market and just kind
15:58of waiting for the next pop to actually
15:59happen in here as we just work our way
16:02back up that wall of worry and continue
16:04our march out of that 50week moving
16:06average. while this market has behaved
16:08and ricocheted right off that 300week
16:10moving average getting through the 50
16:12just as we anticipated, hoped and
16:14tracked for the last year and a half. So
16:16the outlook is amazing. The outlook is
16:18fantastic but so was it down here and
16:20now we're just getting the rewards. So
16:22it's awesome. So otherwise guys, this
16:24week was pretty tame in there. However,
16:26we went ahead and flipped that. That
16:27weekly candle earlier in the week was a
16:29little bit red. Now we're a little bit
16:30green. But of course there are still,
16:32you know, from the time of me recording
16:34this at this moment, like 60 hours left
16:36in the week still. So there's time for
16:38that to play out. But of course, we
16:40closed yet another green monthly candle.
16:42And the quarterly candle was obviously
16:44epic. Till then, it's just a time to
16:46kind of sit back, enjoy the show,
16:47twiddle your thumbs, and wait for some
16:49developments to show up on the charts. I
16:51think we could still continue marching
16:52higher into this range, but, you know,
16:54we're going to eventually shift from,
16:56you know, trying to identify bottoms
16:58like we did for several months, right?
16:59We're looking at onchain data. We're
17:01looking at technicals. We're looking at
17:02all these things. And we're going to
17:03shift away eventually here from paying
17:05so much attention to exact structures
17:08that are happening in crypto and
17:09shifting way more towards we're looking
17:11for those elements and macro to show up
17:13that are going to give us the oomph to
17:15be able to carry our way out of here.
17:17We're not really there yet. We're still
17:18kind of in this rebound, repric,
17:20ricochet, retrace stuff off the lows,
17:23but eventually we're going to shift way
17:24more towards a macro picture. And I know
17:26everybody and you just have to remember
17:28that's how we've always operated this
17:29channel. I know everybody wants to
17:31focus, hey, can you look at my altcoin
17:32and tell me my altcoin is going to do
17:34great and but I've always tried to paint
17:35this whole picture that you have to look
17:37at the entire thing, right? Getting the
17:39top of the cryptocurrency market back in
17:41September and of October last year was
17:44not just looking at one thing. getting
17:45the bottom of it here. This year it was
17:48not just looking at one thing that it's
17:50a big giant picture and you have to
17:52really fit it all together and it takes
17:53a whole lot more work than you would
17:55imagine. And so the idea of really like
17:57focusing like if you're an XRP holder
17:58and focusing on Bitcoin, right? Or if
18:00you're a crypto holder and then focusing
18:02on, hey, we need to pay attention to the
18:04tech software sector of the equity
18:06market. It's like I get it, but it's all
18:10important and in due time I'm I'm sure
18:11you will all see that light. So, in the
18:13meantime, enjoy the show that you have
18:15right now. Have yourselves an absolutely
18:17wonderful weekend, and I will check in
18:18with you guys next week. In the
18:20meantime, just a couple of days ago, I
18:21did post another newsletter over here at
18:23blockchainbacker.substack.com.
18:25I do post two of these every month. This
18:28last one is titled, "The last domino has
18:30fallen. Bitcoin's move historically
18:31confirms risk on. Altcoins are waking up
18:34with giant structure building." And the
18:35next phase of the market begins. It
18:37includes a 30 minute audio recording. I
18:40do record these myself after I write
18:42them. These are my more indepth pieces
18:44that I put together and they take
18:45several days to put together and they're
18:47available over there at
18:48blockchainbacker.substack.com
18:50and there's a link down here in the
18:51description of this video or you can go
18:53directly within your browser. Otherwise
18:55guys, have a great weekend and I'll
18:57catch up with you soon. But that's it.
18:58Thank you so much for watching. If you
19:00could please like this video and give it
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19:10go live. As always, this is not
19:12investment advice and I am not a
19:13financial adviser, but if you ever need
19:16a pickme up or a little bit of
19:17reassurance, just remember that the
19:19blockchain backers got your back. Have a
19:23good one.

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