Right on Track for Bitcoin Price Chart, Altcoin Market, XRP, as Liquidation Back Test 50-Day Average — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
2. 0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
3. 0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
4. 0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
5. 0:23at the total market cap of the
6. 0:24cryptocurrency market along with the
7. 0:26Bitcoin price chart and the XRP price
8. 0:29chart. Coming off of yesterday's a
9. 0:31little bit over $1 billion liquidation
10. 0:33throughout the market. Earlier in the
11. 0:34week, we'd seen about a half a billion
12. 0:36or $500 million of long liquidations
13. 0:39happened throughout the market. And then
14. 0:41yesterday put up there close to a
15. 0:43billion after having three consecutive
16. 0:45breakout weeks from the 50week moving
17. 0:47average. We watched the market have its
18. 0:48first kind of pullback week. And with
19. 0:50Bitcoin pulling back and hitting that
20. 0:5250-day moving average after we've gotten
21. 0:54all these moving averages to start
22. 0:56shifting their way back up on the daily
23. 0:58time frame. Now, I'm actually quite
24. 1:00optimistic about that pullback. I think
25. 1:02we could stay down here for a couple of
26. 1:04days. However, with this getting to a
27. 1:06technical level of hitting the 50-day
28. 1:08moving average, I wouldn't be surprised
29. 1:10if we bounce from this level. And there
30. 1:12was a lot of interesting social dynamics
31. 1:14that were happening yesterday. One thing
32. 1:15I've like talked about and harped on
33. 1:17consistently for weeks on end has been
34. 1:20the conviction aspect of this market
35. 1:22that there is a ton of capital that was
36. 1:25expecting to get to 40 to 50K down here
37. 1:28and then was left in a very difficult
38. 1:30position in here and still said ah we're
39. 1:32not through that 50we moving average I
40. 1:34don't want to yolo in just yet and then
41. 1:36kind of got themselves forced in in
42. 1:38here. So any volatility in here, there's
43. 1:41way there's way too many emotions
44. 1:43sloshing around out here in the market.
45. 1:45So we've kind of focused on things like,
46. 1:46you know, conviction, understanding
47. 1:48where we are in every circumstance of us
48. 1:51producing all of these onchain signals,
49. 1:53all of these technical signals, and then
50. 1:55of course breaking through the 50we
51. 1:56moving average, having the breadth
52. 1:58finally open throughout the market. It's
53. 2:00all implied that we're beyond the
54. 2:02bottom. But what I found fascinating was
55. 2:04that this pullback in general was not
56. 2:07too big. However, the fear over there on
57. 2:09social media was enormous. And I think
58. 2:12it's just going to kind of be this game
59. 2:14we play along the whole time of just
60. 2:15being like conviction, conviction,
61. 2:17conviction because we are by all metrics
62. 2:20of all historical cycles, all of them
63. 2:23with every metric. We've always
64. 2:25historically been beyond the bottom. And
65. 2:27I think what happened yesterday is we
66. 2:29got to kind of witness how low that
67. 2:31conviction is for a lot of capital in
68. 2:33this market right now. And that's just
69. 2:36common, right? And we've all been
70. 2:38through it. Like there's no way no one
71. 2:40here or you watching have never been
72. 2:42found yourself in a position in here
73. 2:44where you're yolo buying here and then
74. 2:47you oh no, things are bad. You make a
75. 2:49bad decision. Oh wait, it's okay. YOLO
76. 2:51buy. Oh no, I'm going to make a bad
77. 2:53decision. Where you get yourself caught
78. 2:55on the opposite side each way because
79. 2:57your entry stinks. You get too excited.
80. 2:59And then you say, "Dang it, I messed
81. 3:00up." And you sell. Oh, I'm excited. Dang
82. 3:03it, I'm upside down. That was a bad
83. 3:04idea. And this just constantly happens.
84. 3:07And then the only way to really ever
85. 3:09like break that loop finally is to just
86. 3:11like buckle up, right, and go for it at
87. 3:15the lows. And then finally, you're out
88. 3:16of that vicious loop to where these
89. 3:18pullbacks aren't so painful because the
90. 3:20entries were at a low. But whenever the
91. 3:22entries keep getting made up in here, it
92. 3:25just constantly produces this fear and
93. 3:27this bad decision making that happens
94. 3:29when the market pulls back. And so we
95. 3:31know socially that the crowd was all
96. 3:33expecting this to break down and go
97. 3:36lower and it very quickly shot up. And
98. 3:38so you just imagine that just the the
99. 3:40larger crowd is stuck in that vicious
100. 3:43loop right now of having to buy up in
101. 3:46here. And any pullback is going to
102. 3:48create that fear in there. And so all it
103. 3:51takes is, you know, one tweet from some
104. 3:53random dude on the internet talking
105. 3:54about quantum risks and everybody freaks
106. 3:57out. Right? Today's October 9th. You've
107. 3:59got so many people who are so uneasy in
108. 4:02these positions. They're saying, "Oh,
109. 4:03tomorrow's the anniversary of 1010.
110. 4:05Watch. It's going to do the same thing
111. 4:07again." Yeah, right. But people believe
112. 4:08it, right? And that's just because the
113. 4:10conviction is so low. And that's just
114. 4:12what we keep talking about that when
115. 4:14you're down here just like everybody
116. 4:16ignores it. And I I categorize
117. 4:18everybody, which you know you're not if
118. 4:19you're watching this channel, but the
119. 4:20crowd, right? Yet to have the breadth
120. 4:22open, have Bitcoin hit 10.8 billion
121. 4:24coins in a loss, XRP hit 42.6 6 billion.
122. 4:27All the weekly bullish divergences after
123. 4:29being oversold and ricocheting, right?
124. 4:31Like all that madness on social media
125. 4:33yesterday was for that. But all it did
126. 4:35was go back and touch the 50-day moving
127. 4:37average. Now, things we've been looking
128. 4:39at from the bigger time frame for
129. 4:40Bitcoin are all still intact just fine.
130. 4:43The things that we've been talking about
131. 4:44here on the channel for a year and a
132. 4:46half, more importantly, really
133. 4:48discussing all of this stuff in here for
134. 4:49the past several months, right? that,
135. 4:52you know, the whole thing of the whole
136. 4:53bare market was to go back and hit the
137. 4:55previous high and then our big
138. 4:57liquidation that we had back in here was
139. 4:58just our secondary slam of the low to
140. 5:01confirm the low is in, but then we
141. 5:03ricochet out of there. And now that
142. 5:05we're back up in here, you know, this is
143. 5:07all kind of the slop and the ranging
144. 5:08action that happens in here. That is
145. 5:11quite common. So, this is clearly our
146. 5:14pre-capitulation range. This is where we
147. 5:16head to to go back and have our
148. 5:18liquidation occur in the market. We work
149. 5:20our way back up and then there's a big
150. 5:22challenge to have to fight through this
151. 5:24area where this pre-capitulation range
152. 5:27exists still where we sort of have to
153. 5:30ABC still pulling back down below here
154. 5:33and then still ABC pulling back down
155. 5:36below. Um there was a lot of fear
156. 5:38yesterday a billion dollar liquidation.
157. 5:40It's intriguing to me because I just
158. 5:41don't think I don't think we have to see
159. 5:43liquidations of the size that we've seen
160. 5:45for extremes, right? Obviously, the 1010
161. 5:48or the October 10th of 2025 liquidation
162. 5:51that was like $20 billion. This one
163. 5:53right in here collectively is a little
164. 5:55bit under five billion. Then this one
165. 5:57right here, this is like a $3 billion
166. 5:59short squeeze that happens in here. So,
167. 6:01you know, anywhere between one and two.
168. 6:03I mean, it's reasonable for me to think,
169. 6:05you know, hey, that's probably good
170. 6:06enough for a range low. It's hard to
171. 6:08call that when we're still less than 24
172. 6:10hours after this liquidation has
173. 6:11happened. However, we know we're at a
174. 6:13moving average. We know this is
175. 6:15structurally how prices try to build a
176. 6:17new range. And that's what I keep kind
177. 6:18of talking about is being like, you
178. 6:19know, do not be surprised if we have to
179. 6:21work out a range for a while in here.
180. 6:23And I think right now with how much
181. 6:25capital again got themselves offsides
182. 6:27yesterday and over the last several
183. 6:29months and then you know yesterday's
184. 6:31price action, you know, if this thing
185. 6:33ends up producing one of these, I think
186. 6:36this is where people would just have no
187. 6:38choice but to long the market to say who
188. 6:41are we kidding at this point? this
189. 6:43market has clearly and obviously
190. 6:45reversed right now they can kind of
191. 6:46convince themselves that oh maybe it
192. 6:48hasn't maybe it hasn't but then at this
193. 6:50point right in here they would have to
194. 6:52say look this is how do you not see it
195. 6:54that this is an actual reversal
196. 6:56happening in here that point of getting
197. 6:58to the top of that range could be a
198. 6:59moment where there's just like a sudden
199. 7:02spike in XRP to shoot it up into its new
200. 7:04range and I was kind of laughing about
201. 7:06it as I was getting this video ready
202. 7:07thinking if you're new to XRP or if
203. 7:10maybe if you entered all throughout in
204. 7:11here you you like when you just look at
205. 7:13this chart you could kind of really the
206. 7:14newcomers don't really know how the
207. 7:16price of XRP operates but all the OGs do
208. 7:20that this is how it operates for forever
209. 7:22and then suddenly there's that and then
210. 7:24it just does this and then boom it's a
211. 7:26sudden move and that's really how the
212. 7:28price has always operated in here for
213. 7:30really all the historical moves that
214. 7:32have happened for XRP we just kind of
215. 7:34sit horrible and then we just stair step
216. 7:36up really fast and I wouldn't be
217. 7:38surprised if we finally get the stair
218. 7:40step to happen in there in a moment
219. 7:41where Bitcoin tries to go push higher up
220. 7:44into this range. Like of course, like
221. 7:45we've already seen with the IGV up in
222. 7:47here, which has been kind of that
223. 7:48catch-up trade happening there for
224. 7:50Bitcoin versus the IGV as you'd put
225. 7:53Bitcoin maybe somewhere still around
226. 7:55right here trying to work its way back
227. 7:57into that pre-capitulation range that
228. 7:59we're trying to get right in here. Uh
229. 8:00but that, you know, again, I'm just kind
230. 8:02of shocked to see how how much fear but
231. 8:05not shocked at the same time because
232. 8:06that's just going to be our social
233. 8:07dynamic. And for people who were here in
234. 8:09the last bull run, you have to remember
235. 8:11what it was like in a bull run, and we
236. 8:13always described it this way. Uh if the
237. 8:15crowd is scared during the correction,
238. 8:17then we're probably still in a bull
239. 8:19market. But when the crowd is overly
240. 8:21confident and convicted in the
241. 8:23correction, that usually means we're in
242. 8:25a bare market. Now, what I witnessed
243. 8:27yesterday on social media and the
244. 8:29narratives and the tweets and everybody
245. 8:31talking about quantum and everybody's
246. 8:32scared and blleh. I don't know. Good
247. 8:34sign. Good sign with the liquidation,
248. 8:37right? So I I think here over the
249. 8:38weekend and really into next week
250. 8:40because I think we probably have an
251. 8:41answer by next week on if this is going
252. 8:44to be an extended correction that builds
253. 8:46a bigger range down here in a lower
254. 8:48range or if we see prices eventually
255. 8:50shift back up here, you know, about 85.
256. 8:53I think if we get back to 85 that then
257. 8:55it's probably telling us a story. This
258. 8:56thing is going to go in a fivewave move
259. 8:58to try to get back to the top of this
260. 9:00pre-capitulation range. That's where
261. 9:02euphoria exists. We talked a lot about
262. 9:04greed over the last week or two saying,
263. 9:06"Yeah, there's greed, but you're going
264. 9:08to expect greed when we're moving up."
265. 9:09It's when we get to extreme greed. My
266. 9:12thoughts are extreme greed likely sits
267. 9:14up here in the mid 90,000s for Bitcoin.
268. 9:17And that's where it becomes unequivocal
269. 9:20to the crowd that there's clearly a
270. 9:22visual reversal in here. And it's just
271. 9:25funny cuz that's how our psychology
272. 9:27works, right? Like at this point, you
273. 9:29would I mean, just clearly see it,
274. 9:30right? But right in here that the crowd
275. 9:32can sit here and say, "I don't know,
276. 9:34man." Quantum. So, this idea is still
277. 9:37playing out exactly right. Um, and now
278. 9:40we'll just kind of give it a few days to
279. 9:42see if it can kind of settle here after
280. 9:43the liquidation and if there's some type
281. 9:45of wrong footing that happens. Uh, you
282. 9:47never know what will happen with news
283. 9:48narrative. Some type of positive news
284. 9:50narrative could happen and that thing
285. 9:51could shoot to the upside and
286. 9:52everybody's screaming in the opposite
287. 9:54direction all over again. Just be
288. 9:55careful. The thing that I keep trying to
289. 9:57reiterate is the bigger picture. A lot
290. 9:59of times when we're grinding up in these
291. 10:01ranges, they're very difficult. Ranges
292. 10:03by design are chaotic. It's about having
293. 10:06like the big picture perspective on
294. 10:07saying, have we created the bottom?
295. 10:09Well, based on every historical bottom
296. 10:12that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency
297. 10:13market has done, we've done literally
298. 10:15everything for a bottom. Then we also
299. 10:17broke through the 50week moving average.
300. 10:19Well, after we already did everything
301. 10:21for the bottom, whether it's onchain
302. 10:23technicals or an opening of Brett. for
303. 10:25the thing that is the exact same but
304. 10:27will not change is going to be crowd
305. 10:29sentiment and how washed it can get. And
306. 10:31so your biggest your biggest danger
307. 10:32really is hanging out on social media
308. 10:35all day because there's too much
309. 10:36offsides capital and too much low
310. 10:38conviction capital. But in the end, it's
311. 10:41just been kind of right on the money
312. 10:43there. And I don't actually think that
313. 10:45this will end up being the hard part. I
314. 10:47think the hard part would be if we get
315. 10:49this right, which we don't know yet. We
316. 10:51got to wait for this thing to play
317. 10:52itself out yet. But I I think if we
318. 10:54ended up getting this, this is where you
319. 10:55would see a lot of difficulty uh with
320. 10:58social media on how to handle it. Um
321. 11:00because I do think that extreme greed
322. 11:03and euphoria does exist up in here. And
323. 11:06then comes the thinking we're not going
324. 11:08to correct. And then that's where, you
325. 11:10know, it's that same stuff we just
326. 11:11talked about how, you know, people
327. 11:13getting in at the wrong time up here and
328. 11:14then getting out here, getting in,
329. 11:16getting out, right? Buy high, sell low.
330. 11:18that the crowd's emotions all exist
331. 11:20still with fear here. Uh but extreme
332. 11:22confidence of the crowd would exist here
333. 11:24until we correct. And then if we pull
334. 11:26all the way back down in here, this
335. 11:28would be where the crowd once again
336. 11:30says, "No, I'm out." And then there's
337. 11:32probably some type of narrative or
338. 11:33something as we come back to back test
339. 11:34that support level in there. Right? So,
340. 11:37we'll see how it transpires throughout
341. 11:38the weekend, if anything even happens
342. 11:40throughout the weekend and then into
343. 11:41next week. But I would expect by next
344. 11:44week we'll have a cleaner idea on
345. 11:46whether a range establishment will
346. 11:48happen here or happen from up in here.
347. 11:50And that's all just going to depend on
348. 11:52how quickly this thing corrects and if
349. 11:54that 50-day moving average is going to
350. 11:56be the thing to hold it in here. You
351. 11:58know, I could spend a couple of days
352. 11:59trying to bounce around down in here and
353. 12:01then just trying to see it shift its way
354. 12:02back up and show a little bit more
355. 12:04strength and then, you know, then you go
356. 12:05there, then it to me it's like a a
357. 12:07no-brainer. We're heading to the top of
358. 12:09this range. But uh this is the stuff
359. 12:11we've obviously been showing on the
360. 12:12channel consistently for quite some
361. 12:14time. Absolutely nothing new. Um and the
362. 12:16crowd sentiment acting exactly how you'd
363. 12:18expect it to. Extremely low conviction,
364. 12:20lots of chaos. Um but we are still just
365. 12:22in the the repricing of the market
366. 12:24phase. Um and that's been kind of a
367. 12:26boring thing I've been saying over and
368. 12:28over again in the market too is that
369. 12:29it's important to remember this has not
370. 12:31been an alt season happening in here.
371. 12:34This is the repricing of the market.
372. 12:35This is the ricochet off the low. I
373. 12:37think the harder part for the market
374. 12:39will be when we actually are in a range
375. 12:41like this throughout in here as we're
376. 12:43waiting to see some type of external
377. 12:46catalyst come from the macro side that
378. 12:48pushes the IGV into the new high. Till
379. 12:51then, we just treat this for what it is,
380. 12:53right? All bottom signals in. We're
381. 12:55ranging right now. We're trying to build
382. 12:57a range from a higher price, but
383. 12:59ultimately what everybody does care
384. 13:00about is the alt season part of it. uh
385. 13:03that's likely not going to come until we
386. 13:05see macro cooperation at the same time.
387. 13:07Uh which is what I've said for a week.
388. 13:09But I think when you have crowd
389. 13:10sentiment like this and then you see a
390. 13:11big liquidation like that, which we can
391. 13:13define big, whatever, you know, billion
392. 13:15dollars there, everybody latches on to
393. 13:17why did prices fall? What happened that
394. 13:20caused prices to fall? And then they
395. 13:22search for some type of fundamental
396. 13:24reasoning. And the reason they find is
397. 13:27quantum's going to destroy crypto. And
398. 13:29so they view that as an existential
399. 13:31threat that there's no solution to. So I
400. 13:33must sell my bag because of quantum.
401. 13:35Right? So it's a dirty game when it
402. 13:37comes to social media narratives and
403. 13:39that whole aspect of it. But when you
404. 13:41just simplify things and and just remove
405. 13:43all noise that this is what you get,
406. 13:45right? You get a market that spent 3
407. 13:47weeks breaking out of the 50we moving
408. 13:48average. You got your first pullback.
409. 13:50Pullbacks are to be expected. Ranges are
410. 13:52to be expected. The thing I've tried to
411. 13:54do is kind of keep those time
412. 13:55expectations in line of saying, "Look,
413. 13:57we're we're past the bottom. all
414. 13:59historical guidelines, all historical
415. 14:00onchain technicals, breadth, everything.
416. 14:03We're beyond the bottom. If you for some
417. 14:04reason start getting your time
418. 14:06expectations thinking we're about to go
419. 14:08into alt season, then pullbacks like
420. 14:10this are telling you, wait a minute,
421. 14:12something is is fundamentally wrong with
422. 14:13the market because I thought we were
423. 14:15ready to explode into alt season, but
424. 14:17now we have quantum risks. No, it's a
425. 14:19big macro game. It's a big technical
426. 14:21game. This is technically normal. And
427. 14:23even if we push higher and the crowd
428. 14:25gets extremely excited, it's still
429. 14:27unlikely the time to become euphoric
430. 14:30with the crowd, barring that we don't
431. 14:32see IGV like surging out into new highs
432. 14:34or something, right? So an easy time to
433. 14:36really just be calm throughout all of it
434. 14:38because the bigger picture tells us
435. 14:40we're fine. This is all normal stuff.
436. 14:41It's going to be expected that there's a
437. 14:43lot of this. It's going to be expected
438. 14:44that there's a lot of this still. And
439. 14:46the moment when it becomes time to start
440. 14:48getting those time expectations of being
441. 14:50like we are going to infinity and beyond
442. 14:53theoretically will be when we have all
443. 14:55the confluences aligning together. Right
444. 14:57now all of our confluences say we're
445. 14:58beyond the bottom. We're ranging. We're
446. 15:00trying to grind our way back up to
447. 15:02establish a larger range. And it's the
448. 15:04one after that that we're all going to
449. 15:06be trying to hoot and holler for the big
450. 15:08fun. But it's like saying we're right in
451. 15:10here and having time expectations that
452. 15:11we're like already there when we're not.
453. 15:13It's like just being right in here. So,
454. 15:15um, pretty chill. Uh, ignore the online
455. 15:17narratives, ignore the chaos, perfectly
456. 15:19normal stuff. Right onto a moving
457. 15:21average. So, I put in a little bit of
458. 15:22capital yesterday. I did a couple of
459. 15:24small buys. I'm kind of eyeing the next
460. 15:26couple of days to see if we double test
461. 15:28the range low in there. And I'll
462. 15:30probably put a little bit more. I'm
463. 15:31still not ready to get to 100% just cuz
464. 15:33I'm already like mostly in the market. I
465. 15:34got 80% in before we saw the runup
466. 15:37happen there in August. Now, I'm just
467. 15:39playing like real conservative with my
468. 15:41last 20% of capital and picking coins
469. 15:43that I have on my list that are like in
470. 15:46buy levels still. There's other coins
471. 15:48that I do want, but they've just run
472. 15:49away too far and I don't know if I'm
473. 15:51going to end up getting them. Either
474. 15:52way, I'm treating this market as we're
475. 15:54beyond the bottom. It's hard to figure
476. 15:56out how each range ends up getting
477. 15:58established in here. But when there's
478. 16:00liquidations happening in the market,
479. 16:02historically, those are those are better
480. 16:03opportunities than trying to like we
481. 16:05just talked about earlier, chase and
482. 16:07FOMO. Uh but when a a liquidation
483. 16:09happens in the market and people are
484. 16:10scared that those are times where I like
485. 16:12to put in some capital. So we'll see how
486. 16:14things transpire throughout the weekend
487. 16:15and into next week and see if we see
488. 16:17kind of a faster recovery on Bitcoin
489. 16:19back up to 85 by next week. In the
490. 16:21meantime, again, focusing on the big
491. 16:23picture. Absolutely everything looks
492. 16:25fine. So all right, that'll be it for
493. 16:27this one you guys. I hope that you have
494. 16:29a wonderful weekend. Throughout the
495. 16:30weekend, of course, check out the
496. 16:31newsletter over here at
497. 16:32blockchainbacker.substack.com.
498. 16:34I put out two of these every month. I
499. 16:36also audio record them, so I'll read
500. 16:38them to you and go through some of the
501. 16:39charts. This last one's 30 minutes long
502. 16:41of my audio recording titled, "The last
503. 16:43domino has fallen. Bitcoin's move
504. 16:45historically confirms risk on. Altcoins
505. 16:47are waking up with giant structure
506. 16:48building and the next phase of the
507. 16:50market begins." That's available over
508. 16:51here at blockchainbacker.substack.com.
509. 16:54There's a link down here in the
510. 16:55description of this video to the
511. 16:57newsletter, or you can just go directly
512. 16:58within your browser. Otherwise, don't be
513. 17:01fooled by the crowd sentiment. On the
514. 17:0250-day moving average, we're
515. 17:04structurally climbing just fine and
516. 17:06we've done every signal of being beyond
517. 17:07the bottom. The problem is too many
518. 17:10voices didn't get themselves positioned
519. 17:12properly and we're getting to watch
520. 17:14their emotions in real time on social
521. 17:16media. Hopefully, you're not in that
522. 17:18position. Hopefully, everything is fine.
523. 17:19I know I am. But we'll see how next
524. 17:21week's candles produce themselves and if
525. 17:23we're about to see an actual extreme
526. 17:26greed scenario start to show up in here.
527. 17:28Otherwise, we'll wait to see what
528. 17:29happens and I'll check in with you guys
529. 17:30next week. I hope you have a wonderful
530. 17:31weekend and that's going to be it. Thank
531. 17:33you so much for watching. If you could
532. 17:34please like this video and give it a
533. 17:36thumbs up. If you're new to the channel,
534. 17:38please subscribe and hit the
535. 17:39notification bell so you can be notified
536. 17:41of when I create new content and when I
537. 17:43go live. As always, this is not
538. 17:45investment advice and I am not a
539. 17:47financial adviser. But if you ever need
540. 17:49a pickme up or a little bit of
541. 17:51reassurance, just remember that the
542. 17:53blockchain backers got your back. Have a
543. 17:56good one.