Read The Market Like A Pro Using OMM — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:01[clears throat]
- 0:01>> Okay.
- 0:02Hi, this is Russell. I can explain the
- 0:05OMM graph.
- 0:08There's two portions of it.
- 0:10There's the bias,
- 0:13which is the top portion.
- 0:16And what this does is tell us
- 0:19at any moment in time
- 0:23what the bias is, either long or short.
- 0:27And that comes by the
- 0:30PML line, which is this red line.
- 0:33So when the green line, which is price,
- 0:35is above the red line,
- 0:37the bias is long.
- 0:39So here it's long. And then when it
- 0:42transitions through the red line, the
- 0:44overall bias is short.
- 0:48So when it's short, that means that, you
- 0:50know, signals that are
- 0:53that go red on our vector line are the
- 0:56ones that are active, that work the
- 0:59best. And then of course when we're
- 1:01long, signals above the vector line are
- 1:04the ones that tend to work the best. So
- 1:07you can see we came down here and we got
- 1:10near the floor. So we tend to maintain a
- 1:14margin.
- 1:15And for QQQ,
- 1:17the margin is one point, roughly,
- 1:21approximately.
- 1:24So what that means is when we're headed
- 1:27into the floor
- 1:29>> [clears throat]
- 1:29>> and we're
- 1:30interrogating, we're looking at the OMM,
- 1:34we tend to not intercept the floor, but
- 1:36we tend to come within a margin of the
- 1:38floor, within about a point of the
- 1:40floor. And you can see it came down here
- 1:42and then it bounced off. And then with
- 1:44time,
- 1:46it started consolidating and then it
- 1:48started working back up towards the PML
- 1:50line again.
- 1:52So
- 1:53the theme of this is on a PML line
- 1:59that's like [snorts] this. Our green
- 2:02line is constantly above and below. It's
- 2:07constantly oscillating above and below
- 2:10the PML line.
- 2:12So, when we get underneath
- 2:14we can look for some point an
- 2:16intersection
- 2:18to get above.
- 2:20Here it tried to get above. And then
- 2:22when we're above, we can look at some
- 2:24point like here where it tries to get
- 2:27below.
- 2:29>> [clears throat]
- 2:29>> And then as we have our margin, there's
- 2:31also a margin up here. And the margin up
- 2:33here is roughly it's also one point.
- 2:38So, we have that as a margin of one
- 2:41point.
- 2:43Now, we do not have to get into the
- 2:45margin. So, what I do is myself
- 2:49I
- 2:51typically I lied into today, but
- 2:52typically I draw on the screen and I put
- 2:54in my margin.
- 2:55So, if the ceiling is here, I subtract
- 3:00one point from the ceiling which gives
- 3:03the margin.
- 3:05And if we start to encroach on the
- 3:07margin, usually it's a kind of a target,
- 3:10but
- 3:11if we start to encroach on the margin
- 3:14there tends to be a rejection from the
- 3:15margin.
- 3:17Only occasionally and it's mostly on
- 3:19Fridays do we get what we call positive
- 3:21exposure.
- 3:23And that's more times than not on
- 3:24Friday, not during the week.
- 3:27And where that's
- 3:29what that is is when we encroach on the
- 3:31margin.
- 3:34So, we get into here, then we start to
- 3:36encroach on the ceiling.
- 3:39And this is the only time when we mark a
- 3:41ceiling that we can go through it. And
- 3:43if we go through the ceiling, it's
- 3:45roughly
- 3:46um
- 3:47plus two points. So, either have a a
- 3:51plus two to a plus one point move
- 3:55if that does occur.
- 3:59So,
- 4:01it's something I look for, but it's
- 4:03mostly on Friday.
- 4:05You know, like a month or two ago, I
- 4:06think it was AVP, I think it was on a
- 4:09Friday we were talking just about this
- 4:11and I was like, "Okay,
- 4:13we could probably have a positive
- 4:14exposure event
- 4:16that day, which we did. We went through
- 4:19the ceiling and we acquired slightly
- 4:22over two points.
- 4:24So, on that, you know, the high leverage
- 4:26plays like calls that are up here
- 4:30usually have a hundreds of a percent
- 4:33range because they're usually relatively
- 4:34cheap. They're usually
- 4:36um a quarter to 10 cents and they'll
- 4:39usually move to 50, 70, 80 cents, $1.50
- 4:44off that.
- 4:46And the same thing down here, if we do
- 4:48break through the floor, which is
- 4:50not a very often event,
- 4:53um it's a positive exposure ne- negative
- 4:55exposure event technically cuz we exceed
- 4:58the floor. I just refer to as positive
- 5:01exposure because it's the same thing.
- 5:02It's
- 5:03moving outside of expectations of the
- 5:05market makers, of the writers of the
- 5:07contracts.
- 5:09So, the writers are
- 5:11basically pricing this out
- 5:15and they're trying for this to crush
- 5:18down on premium.
- 5:20So, we interrogate it. We do
- 5:22This gets driven by synthetic trading.
- 5:25So, we interrogate it,
- 5:27drive these values through synthetic
- 5:29trading. So, we trade up and down in
- 5:32front of us and then that lets us
- 5:34calculate
- 5:36the
- 5:37floor and the ceiling and the P&L. The
- 5:40P&L's where they want to move away from.
- 5:42This is where they have the max risk.
- 5:44So, in order for them to lighten up,
- 5:46they need to move away from it
- 5:48>> [clears throat]
- 5:48>> and then they can start to close out
- 5:51um their positions profitably by selling
- 5:54premium.
- 5:55So, this basically ends up being a max
- 5:57premium line.
- 5:59Which is way different than they have a
- 6:01thing called max pain.
- 6:03And
- 6:04oddly enough, max pain they kind of do
- 6:07this. The reality of it is there's kind
- 6:09of an inverted thing. This is what's
- 6:11really going on. Where the writers have
- 6:14um
- 6:15you know, like PIV.
- 6:18Peak volatility.
- 6:20Cuz they have to sell into volatility.
- 6:22They can't
- 6:23sell on the edges cuz they don't make
- 6:25any money.
- 6:26So, what happens is PML becomes this
- 6:27peak volatility line.
- 6:30And then the market
- 6:33uh needs to move away from that either
- 6:35up or down.
- 6:36>> [clears throat]
- 6:37>> And then that lets them
- 6:38collect premium. So, you can look at
- 6:40this PML as a max premium line.
- 6:43And then as the uh the green line is
- 6:46price as it's moving away from it up or
- 6:48down.
- 6:49>> [snorts]
- 6:49>> And it tends to move away from uh the
- 6:52most contracts. So,
- 6:54we know here that this call side up here
- 6:58has
- 6:59um the it's the heaviest waiting of
- 7:02contracts.
- 7:03So, there's more selling of premium up
- 7:06here.
- 7:07And it's more beneficial for the market
- 7:10to move down.
- 7:12And a lot of times like the writers they
- 7:15will
- 7:16a lot of them are institutions. So, they
- 7:17will control a lot of the underlying
- 7:18stock, but
- 7:20at the same time, it's not really a
- 7:22rigged game. It's just they calculate
- 7:25out and they're like, "Okay, the most
- 7:27probable path the market move is down.
- 7:30So, we'll just write more calls."
- 7:33Here, when we're down here,
- 7:36the most probable path the market move
- 7:38is long.
- 7:40So, we'll write more puts down in here.
- 7:42So, we'll just sell more put side
- 7:43premium. So, as the price eventually
- 7:46tries to, you know, drift up,
- 7:49uh they can cover that
- 7:51premium and collect on it. And ideally,
- 7:53if they can get 100%, that's the best
- 7:56thing, but
- 7:57typically, if they can get 50% or
- 7:59better,
- 8:00that's [clears throat] kind of what
- 8:01they'll shoot for.
- 8:03Now, when we look at the graph, we've
- 8:04also got a bottom portion in it.
- 8:08And this is
- 8:09the portion I look at a lot, cuz this is
- 8:12the one that I have the most interest
- 8:14in.
- 8:15And this is in who's in control
- 8:18of the session.
- 8:21>> [sighs]
- 8:22>> Now, that breaks down into either bulls
- 8:27or bears.
- 8:29And this is key because when I'm looking
- 8:32at
- 8:34let's say this is 9:30 in the morning,
- 8:38and this thing, it takes a few minutes
- 8:39to start printing. And the reason is, it
- 8:42has to work on trading volume. There has
- 8:43to be some options start to trade. The
- 8:46QQQ has to trade. The spy has to trade.
- 8:49The spy options have to trade.
- 8:51So, it's not a classical indicator where
- 8:54it's just like based on momentum or
- 8:56price. That's not at all how this thing
- 8:58works. It starts to look at where
- 9:02the volume's coming in. Like where and
- 9:05not even volume, I should say
- 9:07necessarily, but where the trades are
- 9:09starting to fire off.
- 9:11Because if we know that institutions are
- 9:15collecting on premium,
- 9:18>> [clears throat]
- 9:18>> we're trying to see which side they're
- 9:19selling the premium on. So, that's kind
- 9:22of what this is all boiling down to. And
- 9:24it does it, again, through synthetic
- 9:26trading. It's trading up and down.
- 9:28It's trading the chain up and down. And
- 9:30it's trying to figure out which side,
- 9:34which it does it very successfully. It's
- 9:36trying to figure out which side they're
- 9:37selling on.
- 9:38So, when we have this red line rising,
- 9:42like we have here,
- 9:44this means they're selling put side
- 9:47premium.
- 9:49So, when red line is rising,
- 9:55selling put side premium.
- 9:59Now, when the
- 10:00um
- 10:03light green line
- 10:07rising,
- 10:09they're selling
- 10:10call side premium.
- 10:14Now, since institutions buy a larger in
- 10:17control of the volume and most of
- 10:20trading throughout the day,
- 10:23they're the ones doing all this selling.
- 10:26So, we interrogate through synthetic
- 10:29trading, trading up and down
- 10:31synthetically all the time, just
- 10:32constantly, millions of times a day,
- 10:35seeing where the drive
- 10:38ceiling and floor is at, where the PML
- 10:40is at, and where the contracts premiums
- 10:45being sold. So, when this red line is
- 10:47rising,
- 10:49I know that I can buy, you know, long
- 10:52side calls.
- 11:01So, we can buy just long calls
- 11:07um for
- 11:09uh potential incoming of
- 11:14a premium inflation.
- 11:19Now, as long as the calls aren't too far
- 11:21out of the money, like
- 11:23you know, if you go beyond the ceiling,
- 11:24that's a problem. So, you want to keep
- 11:26it underneath the ceiling, the call
- 11:28side,
- 11:29when you're doing that. And you can keep
- 11:31it out the money, too, so it kind of
- 11:33locks in.
- 11:35Now, on the flip side,
- 11:37conversely,
- 11:38if the light
- 11:40green line is rising,
- 11:44we can buy
- 11:47long puts for a potential
- 11:53incoming of premium inflation.
- 11:58So, when this line's rising,
- 12:01the red line,
- 12:04so it's going up here,
- 12:07that means the market, so let's say
- 12:11that's the QQQ,
- 12:13so the market's like this.
- 12:17The market can be fairly sedate
- 12:20during all of this.
- 12:23So, during all of that, it can be very,
- 12:26kind of like sideways, pretty sedate,
- 12:28not really moving up and down that much.
- 12:30A little bit more of a chop.
- 12:33And I can already tell that because of
- 12:34the screen line. See how this green line
- 12:37is stalking?
- 12:42The screen line's kind of mirroring
- 12:45the red line.
- 12:46I know when that's happening, price
- 12:50is
- 12:52just chopping, kind of like this.
- 12:55Now, when this red line starts, or
- 12:58excuse me, when the green line Let's say
- 13:00the green line
- 13:02flipped over and went down like this,
- 13:04what's going to happen is
- 13:06our price that has been chopping is
- 13:09going to go like that.
- 13:12So, it's going to take off.
- 13:15So, today, case in point, I was using
- 13:18um Meta.
- 13:20And Meta came kind of down, and it was
- 13:22kind of chopping around. It was hitting
- 13:24those open lines.
- 13:26>> [snorts]
- 13:26>> So, I I was I bought it down in here
- 13:29when it was doing that.
- 13:32Um
- 13:33and then finally the condition cleared
- 13:35up
- 13:36and then it just goes like boink like
- 13:39that.
- 13:41So, I was down there and then when we
- 13:43were hitting the um
- 13:45I think it was an open line or something
- 13:46I had in there whatever I had in there.
- 13:48Uh that's when I ended up selling it.
- 13:51So, these matters, you know, like down
- 13:53in here they were $2
- 13:57and less.
- 13:59And then they went up to I don't know it
- 14:01was like four or something or whatever
- 14:03it was.
- 14:04Feels like eons ago.
- 14:06>> [snorts]
- 14:07>> And that's because we had this action
- 14:11where
- 14:13we were running in parallel.
- 14:15Uh the market is fairly sedate. It was
- 14:17consolidating.
- 14:19And then finally we had some price break
- 14:22and uh
- 14:24it took off.
- 14:27Then
- 14:28a little bit into the session later
- 14:31right in here we had a cross over a
- 14:34green line
- 14:35to the red line and then this is where
- 14:38the bears came in.
- 14:40So, right here it was highly bearish and
- 14:42then we got some big pullbacks.
- 14:45And then there was another fight again.
- 14:47So,
- 14:48we don't know how long this will last.
- 14:52It could run the entire session. We've
- 14:54had sessions where the red line or the
- 14:56light green line just continues to
- 14:59accelerate and just kind of go
- 15:01parabolic.
- 15:03And then we've also had situations like
- 15:05today where
- 15:06running in parallel, we have a switch up
- 15:08here, context change in it. Then it
- 15:10attempts to have another context change.
- 15:13The green line maintained.
- 15:15The light green line light green line
- 15:17maintained. So, overall it was kind of
- 15:19maintaining short.
- 15:21But we don't know how long that'll last.
- 15:23So,
- 15:24what I tend to do is
- 15:26on the screen for myself or in the
- 15:29background, either way,
- 15:30I have these, you know, I have these
- 15:32open lines I'm looking at.
- 15:35And what I'll do is
- 15:37I will look at them in um W 20
- 15:435-minute.
- 15:46And then I'll
- 15:48I'll also kind of look at W1 5-minute.
- 15:54W2 5-minute.
- 16:00I'll do W10 15-minute.
- 16:05I'm just looking at different sequences
- 16:09to see where our open lines are at.
- 16:12And um because typically the bears or
- 16:15the bulls, they are heading towards one
- 16:17of those open states.
- 16:19As if you're a bear, you want to take
- 16:21the price as low as you can get it, of
- 16:22course.
- 16:23Prior lows, which open states
- 16:25represents.
- 16:27That's one target area, right? To keep
- 16:29going to those lows and trying to get to
- 16:31a lower low. Same with the bulls. You
- 16:33want to get to open states that are high
- 16:36and try to get to the next one, the next
- 16:37one, next one until finally it fails and
- 16:39there's no participation.
- 16:42So, you want to keep uh they want to
- 16:44keep pushing towards that.
- 16:46The highs and the lows. So, as long as
- 16:49we are short here,
- 16:53you know, I'll look over here and I'll
- 16:54see what open lines there are. And you
- 16:56can also use clusters. And you can also
- 16:58use imprints and just look over to the
- 17:00right and see where
- 17:02we've got groupings or clusters of
- 17:04imprints where and that represents where
- 17:07our reversions come in cuz market
- 17:09there's some repetition to it. It'll
- 17:11kind of seek out certain levels over and
- 17:13over, you know.
- 17:15>> [clears throat]
- 17:15>> And around the pivot when we get into
- 17:17these tighter wave frames
- 17:20like the one in 5-minute the W
- 17:232 5-minute, you'll see that
- 17:26the price action on the pivot it's
- 17:28pretty much just kind of spinning around
- 17:30it. And this is the same technique I
- 17:32used on Friday where we had Nvidia and
- 17:35it moved up to 700%
- 17:38at the last minute. So on Friday we had
- 17:40Nvidia
- 17:42and that one jumped 700
- 17:46and what we were doing is we were
- 17:47watching
- 17:49just this. We were watching our open
- 17:51states
- 17:52and we're watching the um
- 17:55wave 2 5-minute it was for compression
- 17:58and stuff. So
- 18:00at any rate watching that against this
- 18:02information
- 18:04is very good. If you see this
- 18:06green line rising like this and it's
- 18:09above the red line
- 18:11you want to avoid
- 18:13the call side signals on the vector.
- 18:16In the same way with the red line, if
- 18:17you see the red line above this light
- 18:19green line
- 18:21then you want to avoid short side
- 18:23signals. So if the red's above, you want
- 18:25to avoid short and if this green's
- 18:27above, you want to avoid long cuz what
- 18:30tends to happen again is when the
- 18:33green's above
- 18:35um you can get these spurts down like
- 18:38that. So I just, you know, if you have
- 18:41an entry here and you're like, okay, I
- 18:43know it's going to flip back to red
- 18:47well, before you know it it maintains
- 18:48green and then you're way down here and
- 18:51you're way, you know, for options you
- 18:53can start to get way out of the money so
- 18:55that they cannot recover if we do get a
- 18:58flip.
- 19:00It's the same way with the call side.
- 19:03If you've got the call side going up
- 19:07so the red line's going up and you You
- 19:10the price on the calls kind of going
- 19:11like that.
- 19:13Um
- 19:14you know, you want to avoid any shorts
- 19:16because if you put a short on here,
- 19:19you're like, "Aha, I think it's going to
- 19:21flip and it's going to pull back." And
- 19:23before you know it, it's way up here,
- 19:25and there's
- 19:27you know, it's so far from where you've
- 19:29put your position on that for an option,
- 19:32it can't really feasibly get back down
- 19:35there
- 19:36in time, especially if you're using like
- 19:38a zero DTE and you're running out of
- 19:40time a little in the session. It's
- 19:42better to avoid that. So, I always look
- 19:44at this light green, this light red, or
- 19:47excuse me, the red line
- 19:49for my positioning to know which way
- 19:52I'm starting to win. And it's going to
- 19:54be very hard to see. When we first start
- 19:57in the morning,
- 20:00I struggle with this, so I actually need
- 20:02to probably, you know, clean that graph
- 20:03up a little bit, but
- 20:06Okay, let's say this is where we start
- 20:08off that line.
- 20:10I will literally look for And you can
- 20:13use a query, too. You don't have to be
- 20:15crazy like me. I'll literally look for
- 20:17this. I'll look for a little
- 20:20dot of red,
- 20:23and like maybe a little dot of that
- 20:26light green to see where we're falling
- 20:28out. I like to see it visually. So, when
- 20:31we first start in the morning, it's
- 20:32going to be hard to see it
- 20:35cuz it's going to be like way down here,
- 20:37just like little nubs popping out. So,
- 20:40I'm looking for that. And if I see the
- 20:41reds on top, I know my go-to contract is
- 20:45going to be call side.
- 20:47And conversely, if I
- 20:49you know, it's like a little after 9:30,
- 20:51it starts to print. If I see a little
- 20:53bit of green up there,
- 20:55and then I'm seeing a little bit of red
- 20:57underneath down there, and this is, you
- 21:00know, barely starting to print, barely
- 21:01see it.
- 21:03On this, I know it's going to be the put
- 21:05side is going to be the go-to contract.
- 21:10And I know that
- 21:12more more than likely probably have to
- 21:14give it a little time because
- 21:16again, a lot of the time
- 21:19the um contracts
- 21:22are going to be a little bit sluggish
- 21:26to move.
- 21:28It's not going to be an instantaneous
- 21:29thing.
- 21:30So, when we see these things occurring
- 21:35and maybe we have a put up here
- 21:38and we can have price action kind of
- 21:41pretty mellow.
- 21:43You know, and then it may be cuz a lot
- 21:46of times the first 15 minutes of the
- 21:47session, not always, but sometimes when
- 21:49they're
- 21:50they call it the orb, the breakout
- 21:52range, but
- 21:54whenever that occurs, um there can be a
- 21:56little bit of time of confusion in here
- 21:58because there's other traders like us,
- 22:00they're doing the same techniques, the
- 22:02institutions and stuff. It's This isn't
- 22:04anything novel.
- 22:06And they're waiting for the same things
- 22:08to occur. They're waiting for people to
- 22:10start to make the first move and then
- 22:13just to kind of piggyback off of them.
- 22:15So, a lot of times you might have some
- 22:17overnight volatility is a little high.
- 22:19The put jumps, maybe the put was down
- 22:22here, jumps up here, then it kind of
- 22:24starts working down, hits
- 22:27you know, our vector or whatever for
- 22:28support and then finally starts working
- 22:31up. So, we've got our light green line
- 22:33leading with the red line underneath,
- 22:35but it just takes a little while and
- 22:37today um one of the guys saying he's
- 22:39having a really hard time trading.
- 22:42And
- 22:44you know, I know
- 22:46have an idea of what's going on.
- 22:48You know, it's it's more like a
- 22:49ping-pong match to him.
- 22:52And that's not how the market's moving.
- 22:55Cuz a lot of times like let's say the
- 22:56call side, let's say we get we have the
- 22:58call down here the night before and that
- 23:01morning jumps up here,
- 23:04you know, starts to fill,
- 23:06you know, this thing's starting to
- 23:08expand slowly.
- 23:10Premium kind of lets off on the gas,
- 23:12comes back down, then starts to work up.
- 23:15And a lot of times when people, you
- 23:17know, traders are real antsy, like, you
- 23:19know, like, I don't understand what's
- 23:21moving the market. I don't understand
- 23:22what to look for. I don't understand
- 23:23what's important to me.
- 23:26You have to know that when this light
- 23:28green line is is leading and the put is
- 23:31in control, the short side's in control,
- 23:33or the red side's leading and in
- 23:35control, you have to give this time.
- 23:38Like, we see this
- 23:40and other traders are not, even some
- 23:43institutions, they will be working
- 23:46differently than what we're doing. And
- 23:48we see this
- 23:50and we see that the red's leading and
- 23:52that the call side can work, the long
- 23:54side can work. So, sometimes you have to
- 23:57back off and you have to be like, okay,
- 23:59I'm going to wait for our standard
- 24:01setup, maybe it's a tabletop,
- 24:04or I'm going to wait for a vector, you
- 24:06know, the exit, a side exit.
- 24:08You just have to be patient. You can't
- 24:10be like,
- 24:11oh my god, the red's leading. I'm in
- 24:14here right this second. It's 9:30,
- 24:18you know, 9:00 and it started printing
- 24:21and and then all of a sudden it fills
- 24:25and then it goes up and you're like, oh
- 24:26my god. And then you're panicking all
- 24:28the way through this. And then you sell
- 24:31it down here and then it reverses and
- 24:33you just don't know what to believe. So,
- 24:36you have to, I use this stuff all the
- 24:38time. I've been doing this over 30
- 24:40years. So, you have to watch this stuff.
- 24:44Because it worked today, it will work
- 24:46tomorrow, believe me. This isn't just,
- 24:48the red line worked today and tomorrow
- 24:50it's going to fell, or the light green
- 24:52line worked today and tomorrow it's
- 24:53going to fell. That's not how this works
- 24:56whatsoever. It doesn't work that way.
- 24:59When the light green line is leading,
- 25:01the bears are in control. When the red
- 25:03line's leading, the bulls are in
- 25:04control.
- 25:05The only thing you have to worry about,
- 25:07there's only one thing you have to worry
- 25:08about, and that's a flip.
- 25:12You know, so if you're going to panic
- 25:14and you're over here like, "Oh my god,
- 25:16it's in a flip." So you're out, and then
- 25:18you're back in, and then you're out, and
- 25:20you're back in, and you're out, and
- 25:21you're back in cuz you're freaking out
- 25:23on every
- 25:25head eddy here on flow. You're like, "Oh
- 25:27my god, it's going up and down. You know
- 25:28it's in a flip."
- 25:30I Again, we've seen this thing run for
- 25:33hours without intersecting and touching.
- 25:37And then we've also seen other times
- 25:38where it's all
- 25:40yucky and noisy.
- 25:42But again, if it's if the red's leading,
- 25:46you're looking at call side, and you got
- 25:48to be patient. This stuff pays off if
- 25:51you're patient. If you're using this and
- 25:54you're using your signals, it will pay
- 25:55off. It will work. I swear to you.
- 25:58We see this [clears throat] every day in
- 25:59QQQ live. You can go back and look
- 26:01through the things I post, and it it's
- 26:04not working one day and not the next. It
- 26:06works every day the same way. The only
- 26:09thing we have to worry about, again, is
- 26:11any flips or, you know, maybe one day
- 26:15we tend [clears throat] to get a really
- 26:16bad noisy day with the red line and the
- 26:18green line
- 26:19just
- 26:21in entanglement. [clears throat]
- 26:22They keep spinning around each other,
- 26:24coiling around each other. And that's
- 26:26just the way trading is. It's like, you
- 26:29know, maybe some days there's not much
- 26:31new information coming into the market,
- 26:33and it's fairly stagnant.
- 26:36And uh the bulls and bears, neither one
- 26:38has a real advantage, either side. So
- 26:41people can sell both sides of the
- 26:43premium.
- 26:44And it can be fairly equal.
- 26:47So, um that can occur, too. But a A of
- 26:50the times, by and large, if you go back
- 26:51and look,
- 26:53one side will be leading more times than
- 26:57not. And the rallies,
- 27:00they may not be super strong. Like, you
- 27:02know, one day you might get,
- 27:04you know, a two-point move, we might get
- 27:06a three-point move. And then we've also
- 27:08had five, six, seven, eight-point moves,
- 27:10plus.
- 27:12But, again, if we defer back to the red
- 27:15and green line, and then we choose
- 27:17what's leading, that's the go-to
- 27:21side. So, it's either call or short, so.
- 27:25And it, you know, it's going to work
- 27:27every day.
- 27:28Just not one day, and then it quits. I'm
- 27:31even I for
- 27:32I think it's year or something like
- 27:33that, I'm even was doing the
- 27:35calculation, showing the seven mills,
- 27:38and
- 27:39you know, it just didn't work back then
- 27:40when he was doing it, it
- 27:42>> [laughter]
- 27:42>> still works today. It's
- 27:44I maybe two years later, I'm not even
- 27:46sure, but this has been working a long
- 27:48time, and it still works the same way.
- 27:50>> [snorts]
- 27:51>> You know, the
- 27:52writers are selling premium, and they're
- 27:54trying to collect on the premium. They,
- 27:56you know, want to get paid.
- 27:59Got to pay their staff, the traders got
- 28:00to get paid, everybody's got to get
- 28:02paid, so.
- 28:04You know, everybody's doing this every
- 28:05day, trying to drum up money, or trying
- 28:07to game them, trying to go long
- 28:11on calls, or long on puts, or, you know,
- 28:13sell credit spreads, or call spreads, or
- 28:15whatever, and
- 28:17you know, they're trying to sell us
- 28:19premium that they think's going to, you
- 28:21know, go to zero, and think we're the
- 28:23sucker for buying it. So,
- 28:25you know, every side's got their game
- 28:27they're trying to play and benefit.
- 28:30Yeah, it'll work every day, so you just
- 28:33keep tabs on it, and don't try to risk
- 28:37too much.
- 28:38If If you start to get comfortable, and
- 28:40you're like, "Oh my god, this red line,
- 28:42you know, I saw yesterday the calls just
- 28:44really shot up."
- 28:45>> [snorts]
- 28:46>> That doesn't mean the next day it's
- 28:47going to have that aggressiveness to it.
- 28:49So, again, you know, it's like you got
- 28:52to trade
- 28:53Kelly criterions like around 2 3%. You
- 28:56know, not oversizing.
- 28:59And um
- 29:00keeping, you know, the bet size
- 29:02consistent and not not overtrading.
- 29:06Not trying to
- 29:08pre-guess where things are going. That's
- 29:10another problem. You don't want to
- 29:11pre-guess when we're getting these
- 29:14flips.
- 29:15Um back and forth on the red and green.
- 29:17So,
- 29:18that usually leads to
- 29:21a disaster.
- 29:23So, anyways, I think I've covered most
- 29:26of it. Top is biased. The bottom one's
- 29:30who's in control. The bottom one
- 29:32determines which side you can look for
- 29:34contracts.
- 29:36Um
- 29:37or if you're doing futures, which side
- 29:39you join.
- 29:41The short or long side.
- 29:43And um
- 29:45the other thing I should have mentioned
- 29:47is this is very powerful down here.
- 29:50So, if we have resistance,
- 29:53let's say we've got a bunch of
- 29:54resistance imprints or, you know, open
- 29:56lines, whatever on the graph.
- 29:59And red line's leading.
- 30:01This means it can knock out these open
- 30:05lines, these resistive lines, and
- 30:07continue the trend up.
- 30:09So, when the red line's leading, not
- 30:11only is it bulls are in charge,
- 30:13but they have the momentum and they can
- 30:16break resistive areas. The same way when
- 30:19the light green line's leading. If
- 30:21there's supports down here, when the
- 30:23light green line's leading,
- 30:25they can break through those supports.
- 30:28So, not only is it telling us who's in
- 30:30control, but the power of the market and
- 30:34whether the bulls or the bears have
- 30:36uh the momentum behind them.
- 30:41So, I hope this helps. So, thank you
- 30:43very much. Bye.
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