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Read The Market Like A Pro Using OMM — Transcript

by The Fractal Exchange · 4,695 words · 799 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:01[clears throat]
  2. 0:01>> Okay.
  3. 0:02Hi, this is Russell. I can explain the
  4. 0:05OMM graph.
  5. 0:08There's two portions of it.
  6. 0:10There's the bias,
  7. 0:13which is the top portion.
  8. 0:16And what this does is tell us
  9. 0:19at any moment in time
  10. 0:23what the bias is, either long or short.
  11. 0:27And that comes by the
  12. 0:30PML line, which is this red line.
  13. 0:33So when the green line, which is price,
  14. 0:35is above the red line,
  15. 0:37the bias is long.
  16. 0:39So here it's long. And then when it
  17. 0:42transitions through the red line, the
  18. 0:44overall bias is short.
  19. 0:48So when it's short, that means that, you
  20. 0:50know, signals that are
  21. 0:53that go red on our vector line are the
  22. 0:56ones that are active, that work the
  23. 0:59best. And then of course when we're
  24. 1:01long, signals above the vector line are
  25. 1:04the ones that tend to work the best. So
  26. 1:07you can see we came down here and we got
  27. 1:10near the floor. So we tend to maintain a
  28. 1:14margin.
  29. 1:15And for QQQ,
  30. 1:17the margin is one point, roughly,
  31. 1:21approximately.
  32. 1:24So what that means is when we're headed
  33. 1:27into the floor
  34. 1:29>> [clears throat]
  35. 1:29>> and we're
  36. 1:30interrogating, we're looking at the OMM,
  37. 1:34we tend to not intercept the floor, but
  38. 1:36we tend to come within a margin of the
  39. 1:38floor, within about a point of the
  40. 1:40floor. And you can see it came down here
  41. 1:42and then it bounced off. And then with
  42. 1:44time,
  43. 1:46it started consolidating and then it
  44. 1:48started working back up towards the PML
  45. 1:50line again.
  46. 1:52So
  47. 1:53the theme of this is on a PML line
  48. 1:59that's like [snorts] this. Our green
  49. 2:02line is constantly above and below. It's
  50. 2:07constantly oscillating above and below
  51. 2:10the PML line.
  52. 2:12So, when we get underneath
  53. 2:14we can look for some point an
  54. 2:16intersection
  55. 2:18to get above.
  56. 2:20Here it tried to get above. And then
  57. 2:22when we're above, we can look at some
  58. 2:24point like here where it tries to get
  59. 2:27below.
  60. 2:29>> [clears throat]
  61. 2:29>> And then as we have our margin, there's
  62. 2:31also a margin up here. And the margin up
  63. 2:33here is roughly it's also one point.
  64. 2:38So, we have that as a margin of one
  65. 2:41point.
  66. 2:43Now, we do not have to get into the
  67. 2:45margin. So, what I do is myself
  68. 2:49I
  69. 2:51typically I lied into today, but
  70. 2:52typically I draw on the screen and I put
  71. 2:54in my margin.
  72. 2:55So, if the ceiling is here, I subtract
  73. 3:00one point from the ceiling which gives
  74. 3:03the margin.
  75. 3:05And if we start to encroach on the
  76. 3:07margin, usually it's a kind of a target,
  77. 3:10but
  78. 3:11if we start to encroach on the margin
  79. 3:14there tends to be a rejection from the
  80. 3:15margin.
  81. 3:17Only occasionally and it's mostly on
  82. 3:19Fridays do we get what we call positive
  83. 3:21exposure.
  84. 3:23And that's more times than not on
  85. 3:24Friday, not during the week.
  86. 3:27And where that's
  87. 3:29what that is is when we encroach on the
  88. 3:31margin.
  89. 3:34So, we get into here, then we start to
  90. 3:36encroach on the ceiling.
  91. 3:39And this is the only time when we mark a
  92. 3:41ceiling that we can go through it. And
  93. 3:43if we go through the ceiling, it's
  94. 3:45roughly
  95. 3:46um
  96. 3:47plus two points. So, either have a a
  97. 3:51plus two to a plus one point move
  98. 3:55if that does occur.
  99. 3:59So,
  100. 4:01it's something I look for, but it's
  101. 4:03mostly on Friday.
  102. 4:05You know, like a month or two ago, I
  103. 4:06think it was AVP, I think it was on a
  104. 4:09Friday we were talking just about this
  105. 4:11and I was like, "Okay,
  106. 4:13we could probably have a positive
  107. 4:14exposure event
  108. 4:16that day, which we did. We went through
  109. 4:19the ceiling and we acquired slightly
  110. 4:22over two points.
  111. 4:24So, on that, you know, the high leverage
  112. 4:26plays like calls that are up here
  113. 4:30usually have a hundreds of a percent
  114. 4:33range because they're usually relatively
  115. 4:34cheap. They're usually
  116. 4:36um a quarter to 10 cents and they'll
  117. 4:39usually move to 50, 70, 80 cents, $1.50
  118. 4:44off that.
  119. 4:46And the same thing down here, if we do
  120. 4:48break through the floor, which is
  121. 4:50not a very often event,
  122. 4:53um it's a positive exposure ne- negative
  123. 4:55exposure event technically cuz we exceed
  124. 4:58the floor. I just refer to as positive
  125. 5:01exposure because it's the same thing.
  126. 5:02It's
  127. 5:03moving outside of expectations of the
  128. 5:05market makers, of the writers of the
  129. 5:07contracts.
  130. 5:09So, the writers are
  131. 5:11basically pricing this out
  132. 5:15and they're trying for this to crush
  133. 5:18down on premium.
  134. 5:20So, we interrogate it. We do
  135. 5:22This gets driven by synthetic trading.
  136. 5:25So, we interrogate it,
  137. 5:27drive these values through synthetic
  138. 5:29trading. So, we trade up and down in
  139. 5:32front of us and then that lets us
  140. 5:34calculate
  141. 5:36the
  142. 5:37floor and the ceiling and the P&L. The
  143. 5:40P&L's where they want to move away from.
  144. 5:42This is where they have the max risk.
  145. 5:44So, in order for them to lighten up,
  146. 5:46they need to move away from it
  147. 5:48>> [clears throat]
  148. 5:48>> and then they can start to close out
  149. 5:51um their positions profitably by selling
  150. 5:54premium.
  151. 5:55So, this basically ends up being a max
  152. 5:57premium line.
  153. 5:59Which is way different than they have a
  154. 6:01thing called max pain.
  155. 6:03And
  156. 6:04oddly enough, max pain they kind of do
  157. 6:07this. The reality of it is there's kind
  158. 6:09of an inverted thing. This is what's
  159. 6:11really going on. Where the writers have
  160. 6:14um
  161. 6:15you know, like PIV.
  162. 6:18Peak volatility.
  163. 6:20Cuz they have to sell into volatility.
  164. 6:22They can't
  165. 6:23sell on the edges cuz they don't make
  166. 6:25any money.
  167. 6:26So, what happens is PML becomes this
  168. 6:27peak volatility line.
  169. 6:30And then the market
  170. 6:33uh needs to move away from that either
  171. 6:35up or down.
  172. 6:36>> [clears throat]
  173. 6:37>> And then that lets them
  174. 6:38collect premium. So, you can look at
  175. 6:40this PML as a max premium line.
  176. 6:43And then as the uh the green line is
  177. 6:46price as it's moving away from it up or
  178. 6:48down.
  179. 6:49>> [snorts]
  180. 6:49>> And it tends to move away from uh the
  181. 6:52most contracts. So,
  182. 6:54we know here that this call side up here
  183. 6:58has
  184. 6:59um the it's the heaviest waiting of
  185. 7:02contracts.
  186. 7:03So, there's more selling of premium up
  187. 7:06here.
  188. 7:07And it's more beneficial for the market
  189. 7:10to move down.
  190. 7:12And a lot of times like the writers they
  191. 7:15will
  192. 7:16a lot of them are institutions. So, they
  193. 7:17will control a lot of the underlying
  194. 7:18stock, but
  195. 7:20at the same time, it's not really a
  196. 7:22rigged game. It's just they calculate
  197. 7:25out and they're like, "Okay, the most
  198. 7:27probable path the market move is down.
  199. 7:30So, we'll just write more calls."
  200. 7:33Here, when we're down here,
  201. 7:36the most probable path the market move
  202. 7:38is long.
  203. 7:40So, we'll write more puts down in here.
  204. 7:42So, we'll just sell more put side
  205. 7:43premium. So, as the price eventually
  206. 7:46tries to, you know, drift up,
  207. 7:49uh they can cover that
  208. 7:51premium and collect on it. And ideally,
  209. 7:53if they can get 100%, that's the best
  210. 7:56thing, but
  211. 7:57typically, if they can get 50% or
  212. 7:59better,
  213. 8:00that's [clears throat] kind of what
  214. 8:01they'll shoot for.
  215. 8:03Now, when we look at the graph, we've
  216. 8:04also got a bottom portion in it.
  217. 8:08And this is
  218. 8:09the portion I look at a lot, cuz this is
  219. 8:12the one that I have the most interest
  220. 8:14in.
  221. 8:15And this is in who's in control
  222. 8:18of the session.
  223. 8:21>> [sighs]
  224. 8:22>> Now, that breaks down into either bulls
  225. 8:27or bears.
  226. 8:29And this is key because when I'm looking
  227. 8:32at
  228. 8:34let's say this is 9:30 in the morning,
  229. 8:38and this thing, it takes a few minutes
  230. 8:39to start printing. And the reason is, it
  231. 8:42has to work on trading volume. There has
  232. 8:43to be some options start to trade. The
  233. 8:46QQQ has to trade. The spy has to trade.
  234. 8:49The spy options have to trade.
  235. 8:51So, it's not a classical indicator where
  236. 8:54it's just like based on momentum or
  237. 8:56price. That's not at all how this thing
  238. 8:58works. It starts to look at where
  239. 9:02the volume's coming in. Like where and
  240. 9:05not even volume, I should say
  241. 9:07necessarily, but where the trades are
  242. 9:09starting to fire off.
  243. 9:11Because if we know that institutions are
  244. 9:15collecting on premium,
  245. 9:18>> [clears throat]
  246. 9:18>> we're trying to see which side they're
  247. 9:19selling the premium on. So, that's kind
  248. 9:22of what this is all boiling down to. And
  249. 9:24it does it, again, through synthetic
  250. 9:26trading. It's trading up and down.
  251. 9:28It's trading the chain up and down. And
  252. 9:30it's trying to figure out which side,
  253. 9:34which it does it very successfully. It's
  254. 9:36trying to figure out which side they're
  255. 9:37selling on.
  256. 9:38So, when we have this red line rising,
  257. 9:42like we have here,
  258. 9:44this means they're selling put side
  259. 9:47premium.
  260. 9:49So, when red line is rising,
  261. 9:55selling put side premium.
  262. 9:59Now, when the
  263. 10:00um
  264. 10:03light green line
  265. 10:07rising,
  266. 10:09they're selling
  267. 10:10call side premium.
  268. 10:14Now, since institutions buy a larger in
  269. 10:17control of the volume and most of
  270. 10:20trading throughout the day,
  271. 10:23they're the ones doing all this selling.
  272. 10:26So, we interrogate through synthetic
  273. 10:29trading, trading up and down
  274. 10:31synthetically all the time, just
  275. 10:32constantly, millions of times a day,
  276. 10:35seeing where the drive
  277. 10:38ceiling and floor is at, where the PML
  278. 10:40is at, and where the contracts premiums
  279. 10:45being sold. So, when this red line is
  280. 10:47rising,
  281. 10:49I know that I can buy, you know, long
  282. 10:52side calls.
  283. 11:01So, we can buy just long calls
  284. 11:07um for
  285. 11:09uh potential incoming of
  286. 11:14a premium inflation.
  287. 11:19Now, as long as the calls aren't too far
  288. 11:21out of the money, like
  289. 11:23you know, if you go beyond the ceiling,
  290. 11:24that's a problem. So, you want to keep
  291. 11:26it underneath the ceiling, the call
  292. 11:28side,
  293. 11:29when you're doing that. And you can keep
  294. 11:31it out the money, too, so it kind of
  295. 11:33locks in.
  296. 11:35Now, on the flip side,
  297. 11:37conversely,
  298. 11:38if the light
  299. 11:40green line is rising,
  300. 11:44we can buy
  301. 11:47long puts for a potential
  302. 11:53incoming of premium inflation.
  303. 11:58So, when this line's rising,
  304. 12:01the red line,
  305. 12:04so it's going up here,
  306. 12:07that means the market, so let's say
  307. 12:11that's the QQQ,
  308. 12:13so the market's like this.
  309. 12:17The market can be fairly sedate
  310. 12:20during all of this.
  311. 12:23So, during all of that, it can be very,
  312. 12:26kind of like sideways, pretty sedate,
  313. 12:28not really moving up and down that much.
  314. 12:30A little bit more of a chop.
  315. 12:33And I can already tell that because of
  316. 12:34the screen line. See how this green line
  317. 12:37is stalking?
  318. 12:42The screen line's kind of mirroring
  319. 12:45the red line.
  320. 12:46I know when that's happening, price
  321. 12:50is
  322. 12:52just chopping, kind of like this.
  323. 12:55Now, when this red line starts, or
  324. 12:58excuse me, when the green line Let's say
  325. 13:00the green line
  326. 13:02flipped over and went down like this,
  327. 13:04what's going to happen is
  328. 13:06our price that has been chopping is
  329. 13:09going to go like that.
  330. 13:12So, it's going to take off.
  331. 13:15So, today, case in point, I was using
  332. 13:18um Meta.
  333. 13:20And Meta came kind of down, and it was
  334. 13:22kind of chopping around. It was hitting
  335. 13:24those open lines.
  336. 13:26>> [snorts]
  337. 13:26>> So, I I was I bought it down in here
  338. 13:29when it was doing that.
  339. 13:32Um
  340. 13:33and then finally the condition cleared
  341. 13:35up
  342. 13:36and then it just goes like boink like
  343. 13:39that.
  344. 13:41So, I was down there and then when we
  345. 13:43were hitting the um
  346. 13:45I think it was an open line or something
  347. 13:46I had in there whatever I had in there.
  348. 13:48Uh that's when I ended up selling it.
  349. 13:51So, these matters, you know, like down
  350. 13:53in here they were $2
  351. 13:57and less.
  352. 13:59And then they went up to I don't know it
  353. 14:01was like four or something or whatever
  354. 14:03it was.
  355. 14:04Feels like eons ago.
  356. 14:06>> [snorts]
  357. 14:07>> And that's because we had this action
  358. 14:11where
  359. 14:13we were running in parallel.
  360. 14:15Uh the market is fairly sedate. It was
  361. 14:17consolidating.
  362. 14:19And then finally we had some price break
  363. 14:22and uh
  364. 14:24it took off.
  365. 14:27Then
  366. 14:28a little bit into the session later
  367. 14:31right in here we had a cross over a
  368. 14:34green line
  369. 14:35to the red line and then this is where
  370. 14:38the bears came in.
  371. 14:40So, right here it was highly bearish and
  372. 14:42then we got some big pullbacks.
  373. 14:45And then there was another fight again.
  374. 14:47So,
  375. 14:48we don't know how long this will last.
  376. 14:52It could run the entire session. We've
  377. 14:54had sessions where the red line or the
  378. 14:56light green line just continues to
  379. 14:59accelerate and just kind of go
  380. 15:01parabolic.
  381. 15:03And then we've also had situations like
  382. 15:05today where
  383. 15:06running in parallel, we have a switch up
  384. 15:08here, context change in it. Then it
  385. 15:10attempts to have another context change.
  386. 15:13The green line maintained.
  387. 15:15The light green line light green line
  388. 15:17maintained. So, overall it was kind of
  389. 15:19maintaining short.
  390. 15:21But we don't know how long that'll last.
  391. 15:23So,
  392. 15:24what I tend to do is
  393. 15:26on the screen for myself or in the
  394. 15:29background, either way,
  395. 15:30I have these, you know, I have these
  396. 15:32open lines I'm looking at.
  397. 15:35And what I'll do is
  398. 15:37I will look at them in um W 20
  399. 15:435-minute.
  400. 15:46And then I'll
  401. 15:48I'll also kind of look at W1 5-minute.
  402. 15:54W2 5-minute.
  403. 16:00I'll do W10 15-minute.
  404. 16:05I'm just looking at different sequences
  405. 16:09to see where our open lines are at.
  406. 16:12And um because typically the bears or
  407. 16:15the bulls, they are heading towards one
  408. 16:17of those open states.
  409. 16:19As if you're a bear, you want to take
  410. 16:21the price as low as you can get it, of
  411. 16:22course.
  412. 16:23Prior lows, which open states
  413. 16:25represents.
  414. 16:27That's one target area, right? To keep
  415. 16:29going to those lows and trying to get to
  416. 16:31a lower low. Same with the bulls. You
  417. 16:33want to get to open states that are high
  418. 16:36and try to get to the next one, the next
  419. 16:37one, next one until finally it fails and
  420. 16:39there's no participation.
  421. 16:42So, you want to keep uh they want to
  422. 16:44keep pushing towards that.
  423. 16:46The highs and the lows. So, as long as
  424. 16:49we are short here,
  425. 16:53you know, I'll look over here and I'll
  426. 16:54see what open lines there are. And you
  427. 16:56can also use clusters. And you can also
  428. 16:58use imprints and just look over to the
  429. 17:00right and see where
  430. 17:02we've got groupings or clusters of
  431. 17:04imprints where and that represents where
  432. 17:07our reversions come in cuz market
  433. 17:09there's some repetition to it. It'll
  434. 17:11kind of seek out certain levels over and
  435. 17:13over, you know.
  436. 17:15>> [clears throat]
  437. 17:15>> And around the pivot when we get into
  438. 17:17these tighter wave frames
  439. 17:20like the one in 5-minute the W
  440. 17:232 5-minute, you'll see that
  441. 17:26the price action on the pivot it's
  442. 17:28pretty much just kind of spinning around
  443. 17:30it. And this is the same technique I
  444. 17:32used on Friday where we had Nvidia and
  445. 17:35it moved up to 700%
  446. 17:38at the last minute. So on Friday we had
  447. 17:40Nvidia
  448. 17:42and that one jumped 700
  449. 17:46and what we were doing is we were
  450. 17:47watching
  451. 17:49just this. We were watching our open
  452. 17:51states
  453. 17:52and we're watching the um
  454. 17:55wave 2 5-minute it was for compression
  455. 17:58and stuff. So
  456. 18:00at any rate watching that against this
  457. 18:02information
  458. 18:04is very good. If you see this
  459. 18:06green line rising like this and it's
  460. 18:09above the red line
  461. 18:11you want to avoid
  462. 18:13the call side signals on the vector.
  463. 18:16In the same way with the red line, if
  464. 18:17you see the red line above this light
  465. 18:19green line
  466. 18:21then you want to avoid short side
  467. 18:23signals. So if the red's above, you want
  468. 18:25to avoid short and if this green's
  469. 18:27above, you want to avoid long cuz what
  470. 18:30tends to happen again is when the
  471. 18:33green's above
  472. 18:35um you can get these spurts down like
  473. 18:38that. So I just, you know, if you have
  474. 18:41an entry here and you're like, okay, I
  475. 18:43know it's going to flip back to red
  476. 18:47well, before you know it it maintains
  477. 18:48green and then you're way down here and
  478. 18:51you're way, you know, for options you
  479. 18:53can start to get way out of the money so
  480. 18:55that they cannot recover if we do get a
  481. 18:58flip.
  482. 19:00It's the same way with the call side.
  483. 19:03If you've got the call side going up
  484. 19:07so the red line's going up and you You
  485. 19:10the price on the calls kind of going
  486. 19:11like that.
  487. 19:13Um
  488. 19:14you know, you want to avoid any shorts
  489. 19:16because if you put a short on here,
  490. 19:19you're like, "Aha, I think it's going to
  491. 19:21flip and it's going to pull back." And
  492. 19:23before you know it, it's way up here,
  493. 19:25and there's
  494. 19:27you know, it's so far from where you've
  495. 19:29put your position on that for an option,
  496. 19:32it can't really feasibly get back down
  497. 19:35there
  498. 19:36in time, especially if you're using like
  499. 19:38a zero DTE and you're running out of
  500. 19:40time a little in the session. It's
  501. 19:42better to avoid that. So, I always look
  502. 19:44at this light green, this light red, or
  503. 19:47excuse me, the red line
  504. 19:49for my positioning to know which way
  505. 19:52I'm starting to win. And it's going to
  506. 19:54be very hard to see. When we first start
  507. 19:57in the morning,
  508. 20:00I struggle with this, so I actually need
  509. 20:02to probably, you know, clean that graph
  510. 20:03up a little bit, but
  511. 20:06Okay, let's say this is where we start
  512. 20:08off that line.
  513. 20:10I will literally look for And you can
  514. 20:13use a query, too. You don't have to be
  515. 20:15crazy like me. I'll literally look for
  516. 20:17this. I'll look for a little
  517. 20:20dot of red,
  518. 20:23and like maybe a little dot of that
  519. 20:26light green to see where we're falling
  520. 20:28out. I like to see it visually. So, when
  521. 20:31we first start in the morning, it's
  522. 20:32going to be hard to see it
  523. 20:35cuz it's going to be like way down here,
  524. 20:37just like little nubs popping out. So,
  525. 20:40I'm looking for that. And if I see the
  526. 20:41reds on top, I know my go-to contract is
  527. 20:45going to be call side.
  528. 20:47And conversely, if I
  529. 20:49you know, it's like a little after 9:30,
  530. 20:51it starts to print. If I see a little
  531. 20:53bit of green up there,
  532. 20:55and then I'm seeing a little bit of red
  533. 20:57underneath down there, and this is, you
  534. 21:00know, barely starting to print, barely
  535. 21:01see it.
  536. 21:03On this, I know it's going to be the put
  537. 21:05side is going to be the go-to contract.
  538. 21:10And I know that
  539. 21:12more more than likely probably have to
  540. 21:14give it a little time because
  541. 21:16again, a lot of the time
  542. 21:19the um contracts
  543. 21:22are going to be a little bit sluggish
  544. 21:26to move.
  545. 21:28It's not going to be an instantaneous
  546. 21:29thing.
  547. 21:30So, when we see these things occurring
  548. 21:35and maybe we have a put up here
  549. 21:38and we can have price action kind of
  550. 21:41pretty mellow.
  551. 21:43You know, and then it may be cuz a lot
  552. 21:46of times the first 15 minutes of the
  553. 21:47session, not always, but sometimes when
  554. 21:49they're
  555. 21:50they call it the orb, the breakout
  556. 21:52range, but
  557. 21:54whenever that occurs, um there can be a
  558. 21:56little bit of time of confusion in here
  559. 21:58because there's other traders like us,
  560. 22:00they're doing the same techniques, the
  561. 22:02institutions and stuff. It's This isn't
  562. 22:04anything novel.
  563. 22:06And they're waiting for the same things
  564. 22:08to occur. They're waiting for people to
  565. 22:10start to make the first move and then
  566. 22:13just to kind of piggyback off of them.
  567. 22:15So, a lot of times you might have some
  568. 22:17overnight volatility is a little high.
  569. 22:19The put jumps, maybe the put was down
  570. 22:22here, jumps up here, then it kind of
  571. 22:24starts working down, hits
  572. 22:27you know, our vector or whatever for
  573. 22:28support and then finally starts working
  574. 22:31up. So, we've got our light green line
  575. 22:33leading with the red line underneath,
  576. 22:35but it just takes a little while and
  577. 22:37today um one of the guys saying he's
  578. 22:39having a really hard time trading.
  579. 22:42And
  580. 22:44you know, I know
  581. 22:46have an idea of what's going on.
  582. 22:48You know, it's it's more like a
  583. 22:49ping-pong match to him.
  584. 22:52And that's not how the market's moving.
  585. 22:55Cuz a lot of times like let's say the
  586. 22:56call side, let's say we get we have the
  587. 22:58call down here the night before and that
  588. 23:01morning jumps up here,
  589. 23:04you know, starts to fill,
  590. 23:06you know, this thing's starting to
  591. 23:08expand slowly.
  592. 23:10Premium kind of lets off on the gas,
  593. 23:12comes back down, then starts to work up.
  594. 23:15And a lot of times when people, you
  595. 23:17know, traders are real antsy, like, you
  596. 23:19know, like, I don't understand what's
  597. 23:21moving the market. I don't understand
  598. 23:22what to look for. I don't understand
  599. 23:23what's important to me.
  600. 23:26You have to know that when this light
  601. 23:28green line is is leading and the put is
  602. 23:31in control, the short side's in control,
  603. 23:33or the red side's leading and in
  604. 23:35control, you have to give this time.
  605. 23:38Like, we see this
  606. 23:40and other traders are not, even some
  607. 23:43institutions, they will be working
  608. 23:46differently than what we're doing. And
  609. 23:48we see this
  610. 23:50and we see that the red's leading and
  611. 23:52that the call side can work, the long
  612. 23:54side can work. So, sometimes you have to
  613. 23:57back off and you have to be like, okay,
  614. 23:59I'm going to wait for our standard
  615. 24:01setup, maybe it's a tabletop,
  616. 24:04or I'm going to wait for a vector, you
  617. 24:06know, the exit, a side exit.
  618. 24:08You just have to be patient. You can't
  619. 24:10be like,
  620. 24:11oh my god, the red's leading. I'm in
  621. 24:14here right this second. It's 9:30,
  622. 24:18you know, 9:00 and it started printing
  623. 24:21and and then all of a sudden it fills
  624. 24:25and then it goes up and you're like, oh
  625. 24:26my god. And then you're panicking all
  626. 24:28the way through this. And then you sell
  627. 24:31it down here and then it reverses and
  628. 24:33you just don't know what to believe. So,
  629. 24:36you have to, I use this stuff all the
  630. 24:38time. I've been doing this over 30
  631. 24:40years. So, you have to watch this stuff.
  632. 24:44Because it worked today, it will work
  633. 24:46tomorrow, believe me. This isn't just,
  634. 24:48the red line worked today and tomorrow
  635. 24:50it's going to fell, or the light green
  636. 24:52line worked today and tomorrow it's
  637. 24:53going to fell. That's not how this works
  638. 24:56whatsoever. It doesn't work that way.
  639. 24:59When the light green line is leading,
  640. 25:01the bears are in control. When the red
  641. 25:03line's leading, the bulls are in
  642. 25:04control.
  643. 25:05The only thing you have to worry about,
  644. 25:07there's only one thing you have to worry
  645. 25:08about, and that's a flip.
  646. 25:12You know, so if you're going to panic
  647. 25:14and you're over here like, "Oh my god,
  648. 25:16it's in a flip." So you're out, and then
  649. 25:18you're back in, and then you're out, and
  650. 25:20you're back in, and you're out, and
  651. 25:21you're back in cuz you're freaking out
  652. 25:23on every
  653. 25:25head eddy here on flow. You're like, "Oh
  654. 25:27my god, it's going up and down. You know
  655. 25:28it's in a flip."
  656. 25:30I Again, we've seen this thing run for
  657. 25:33hours without intersecting and touching.
  658. 25:37And then we've also seen other times
  659. 25:38where it's all
  660. 25:40yucky and noisy.
  661. 25:42But again, if it's if the red's leading,
  662. 25:46you're looking at call side, and you got
  663. 25:48to be patient. This stuff pays off if
  664. 25:51you're patient. If you're using this and
  665. 25:54you're using your signals, it will pay
  666. 25:55off. It will work. I swear to you.
  667. 25:58We see this [clears throat] every day in
  668. 25:59QQQ live. You can go back and look
  669. 26:01through the things I post, and it it's
  670. 26:04not working one day and not the next. It
  671. 26:06works every day the same way. The only
  672. 26:09thing we have to worry about, again, is
  673. 26:11any flips or, you know, maybe one day
  674. 26:15we tend [clears throat] to get a really
  675. 26:16bad noisy day with the red line and the
  676. 26:18green line
  677. 26:19just
  678. 26:21in entanglement. [clears throat]
  679. 26:22They keep spinning around each other,
  680. 26:24coiling around each other. And that's
  681. 26:26just the way trading is. It's like, you
  682. 26:29know, maybe some days there's not much
  683. 26:31new information coming into the market,
  684. 26:33and it's fairly stagnant.
  685. 26:36And uh the bulls and bears, neither one
  686. 26:38has a real advantage, either side. So
  687. 26:41people can sell both sides of the
  688. 26:43premium.
  689. 26:44And it can be fairly equal.
  690. 26:47So, um that can occur, too. But a A of
  691. 26:50the times, by and large, if you go back
  692. 26:51and look,
  693. 26:53one side will be leading more times than
  694. 26:57not. And the rallies,
  695. 27:00they may not be super strong. Like, you
  696. 27:02know, one day you might get,
  697. 27:04you know, a two-point move, we might get
  698. 27:06a three-point move. And then we've also
  699. 27:08had five, six, seven, eight-point moves,
  700. 27:10plus.
  701. 27:12But, again, if we defer back to the red
  702. 27:15and green line, and then we choose
  703. 27:17what's leading, that's the go-to
  704. 27:21side. So, it's either call or short, so.
  705. 27:25And it, you know, it's going to work
  706. 27:27every day.
  707. 27:28Just not one day, and then it quits. I'm
  708. 27:31even I for
  709. 27:32I think it's year or something like
  710. 27:33that, I'm even was doing the
  711. 27:35calculation, showing the seven mills,
  712. 27:38and
  713. 27:39you know, it just didn't work back then
  714. 27:40when he was doing it, it
  715. 27:42>> [laughter]
  716. 27:42>> still works today. It's
  717. 27:44I maybe two years later, I'm not even
  718. 27:46sure, but this has been working a long
  719. 27:48time, and it still works the same way.
  720. 27:50>> [snorts]
  721. 27:51>> You know, the
  722. 27:52writers are selling premium, and they're
  723. 27:54trying to collect on the premium. They,
  724. 27:56you know, want to get paid.
  725. 27:59Got to pay their staff, the traders got
  726. 28:00to get paid, everybody's got to get
  727. 28:02paid, so.
  728. 28:04You know, everybody's doing this every
  729. 28:05day, trying to drum up money, or trying
  730. 28:07to game them, trying to go long
  731. 28:11on calls, or long on puts, or, you know,
  732. 28:13sell credit spreads, or call spreads, or
  733. 28:15whatever, and
  734. 28:17you know, they're trying to sell us
  735. 28:19premium that they think's going to, you
  736. 28:21know, go to zero, and think we're the
  737. 28:23sucker for buying it. So,
  738. 28:25you know, every side's got their game
  739. 28:27they're trying to play and benefit.
  740. 28:30Yeah, it'll work every day, so you just
  741. 28:33keep tabs on it, and don't try to risk
  742. 28:37too much.
  743. 28:38If If you start to get comfortable, and
  744. 28:40you're like, "Oh my god, this red line,
  745. 28:42you know, I saw yesterday the calls just
  746. 28:44really shot up."
  747. 28:45>> [snorts]
  748. 28:46>> That doesn't mean the next day it's
  749. 28:47going to have that aggressiveness to it.
  750. 28:49So, again, you know, it's like you got
  751. 28:52to trade
  752. 28:53Kelly criterions like around 2 3%. You
  753. 28:56know, not oversizing.
  754. 28:59And um
  755. 29:00keeping, you know, the bet size
  756. 29:02consistent and not not overtrading.
  757. 29:06Not trying to
  758. 29:08pre-guess where things are going. That's
  759. 29:10another problem. You don't want to
  760. 29:11pre-guess when we're getting these
  761. 29:14flips.
  762. 29:15Um back and forth on the red and green.
  763. 29:17So,
  764. 29:18that usually leads to
  765. 29:21a disaster.
  766. 29:23So, anyways, I think I've covered most
  767. 29:26of it. Top is biased. The bottom one's
  768. 29:30who's in control. The bottom one
  769. 29:32determines which side you can look for
  770. 29:34contracts.
  771. 29:36Um
  772. 29:37or if you're doing futures, which side
  773. 29:39you join.
  774. 29:41The short or long side.
  775. 29:43And um
  776. 29:45the other thing I should have mentioned
  777. 29:47is this is very powerful down here.
  778. 29:50So, if we have resistance,
  779. 29:53let's say we've got a bunch of
  780. 29:54resistance imprints or, you know, open
  781. 29:56lines, whatever on the graph.
  782. 29:59And red line's leading.
  783. 30:01This means it can knock out these open
  784. 30:05lines, these resistive lines, and
  785. 30:07continue the trend up.
  786. 30:09So, when the red line's leading, not
  787. 30:11only is it bulls are in charge,
  788. 30:13but they have the momentum and they can
  789. 30:16break resistive areas. The same way when
  790. 30:19the light green line's leading. If
  791. 30:21there's supports down here, when the
  792. 30:23light green line's leading,
  793. 30:25they can break through those supports.
  794. 30:28So, not only is it telling us who's in
  795. 30:30control, but the power of the market and
  796. 30:34whether the bulls or the bears have
  797. 30:36uh the momentum behind them.
  798. 30:41So, I hope this helps. So, thank you
  799. 30:43very much. Bye.

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