YouTube transcript (qC0LogyIk2I) — Transcript

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1. 0:29welcome back folks this is the fourth
2. 0:32of eight
3. 0:33installments for the first month of the
4. 0:35ict mentorship
5. 0:37we are
6. 0:38covering
7. 0:39equilibrium versus discount
8. 0:43now
9. 0:45again
10. 0:47just as a forewarning uh for some some
11. 0:49of you were actually uh
12. 0:52pupils of mine
13. 0:53prior to me starting this mentorship
14. 0:55this is going to seem a little bit
15. 0:57elementary initially but i promise i'll
16. 0:59add something to it that
17. 1:01may
18. 1:01bring a little bit more
19. 1:03depth the understanding of what optimal
20. 1:05trade entry is
21. 1:08a long time ago
22. 1:09back in 2010 i introduced a
23. 1:12simple idea of
24. 1:15looking at swing projections
25. 1:16retracements and identifying what would
26. 1:19be deemed as optimal trade entry
27. 1:22and everyone knew that saw it obviously
28. 1:25fell in love with they liked it it was
29. 1:27easy for them to see they would apply it
30. 1:29really quick to the chart and i think
31. 1:30the reason why is because it had a
32. 1:32indicator applied to it
33. 1:34and that being the fibonacci now
34. 1:36fibonacci doesn't have any magic doesn't
35. 1:38have any uh you know significance by
36. 1:41itself and yet to understand
37. 1:43where the market may want to reach for
38. 1:46so there's going to be a certain measure
39. 1:48of prognostication on your part the fib
40. 1:51doesn't do everything for you so
41. 1:53i want to draw your attention to
42. 1:55looking at where
43. 1:57markets are most likely to create
44. 2:00by conditions now this is not by signal
45. 2:02entries this is just framing a context
46. 2:05initially as a new trader someone new to
47. 2:08technical analysis someone new to my
48. 2:10principles it's going to give you a
49. 2:12foundation so that we can go into the
50. 2:13charts and start looking at these things
51. 2:15and measure them and then study them
52. 2:18okay
53. 2:19so
54. 2:20all this is meant is to give you a
55. 2:22framework to work within in your demo
56. 2:23account
57. 2:24everyone should be working inside the
58. 2:26forex ltd demo account as i established
59. 2:29um at the beginning of this mentorship
60. 2:32so
61. 2:34we have multiple price swings in here
62. 2:38on this daily chart we're looking at
63. 2:39primarily a daily chart uh initially for
64. 2:42our setups
65. 2:43if you're a new trader okay and you
66. 2:45seemed overwhelmed you probably heard me
67. 2:48talk about certain things already in
68. 2:49this mentorship
69. 2:51maybe you've watched some of my videos
70. 2:52on youtube or on my website's tutorial
71. 2:55section
72. 2:56and
73. 2:57you heard terms that went right over
74. 2:58your head
75. 3:00some of the terms are created by me some
76. 3:03of them are industry standards uh some
77. 3:07are going to require a little bit more
78. 3:10uh description about what they mean
79. 3:12later on in the mentorship so if you
80. 3:14hear something even in this
81. 3:16presentation just make a note of it in
82. 3:18your notes and then obviously you know
83. 3:19you'll pick up the understanding as we
84. 3:21go deeper every month or something new
85. 3:24but for now i want you to focus on
86. 3:27a simple question
87. 3:30if a trader believes that the market's
88. 3:32going to go higher
89. 3:34what would frame that context what would
90. 3:38give the the trader that
91. 3:40a conclusion to trust
92. 3:43buying a specific market like what goes
93. 3:45in what goes into making that decision
94. 3:48well the first thing i want you to
95. 3:50understand is this is going to be like
96. 3:51the very first baby step to
97. 3:53understanding institutional order flow
98. 3:56the first thing you need is movement you
99. 3:58have to understand that to be a buyer
100. 4:01there has to be a willingness of
101. 4:03somebody with bigger
102. 4:05uh bigger pockets than you more money
103. 4:07than you and they are the ones that move
104. 4:09price around and they are the banks okay
105. 4:12uh they're they're only going to let
106. 4:14price go higher when it suits their
107. 4:15purpose
108. 4:16okay so it's not going to be a supply
109. 4:17and demand factor it's going to be a
110. 4:20greed factor they want money okay
111. 4:22they're in the business of making money
112. 4:23after all that's their nature their
113. 4:24business that's a bank
114. 4:26so
115. 4:27if we are looking for buying
116. 4:28opportunities okay
117. 4:31many retail traders look for
118. 4:33all of these patterns and indicator
119. 4:36based ideas
120. 4:37and i want you to focus primarily on
121. 4:39price price alone will give you
122. 4:41everything you'll ever need in terms of
123. 4:44indicating higher or lower price and
124. 4:46it'll actually give you the actual
125. 4:47specific entries and your exits you
126. 4:49don't need anything else outside of a
127. 4:51price chart okay the open high low
128. 4:52enclosed does everything for you
129. 4:56i want you to look at this low down here
130. 4:59and i want you to look at this high up
131. 5:00here
132. 5:01okay do you see how that is the biggest
133. 5:03price swing
134. 5:05on this entire
135. 5:06chart
136. 5:07so between
137. 5:08august 14th all the way to the present
138. 5:10time in september
139. 5:12there is only been one major price swing
140. 5:15higher and lower
141. 5:17so if we take a fibonacci level
142. 5:20okay and i'm only going to use fibonacci
143. 5:22to illustrate equilibrium okay because i
144. 5:24first have to establish what equilibrium
145. 5:26is
146. 5:27this is the largest price range okay or
147. 5:31the market range that's presently being
148. 5:34traded in now what do i mean by
149. 5:36present market range this is the highest
150. 5:38range we've seen
151. 5:40okay
152. 5:41in the last month or so
153. 5:44so if we look at this range and i'm
154. 5:46going to scroll back here so you can see
155. 5:47there's nothing
156. 5:49more significant than that except for
157. 5:50this one back here but we're going to
158. 5:51primarily use this because it has a very
159. 5:53strong reaction we can use these back
160. 5:56here
161. 5:56okay and i'll do it for completeness
162. 5:58sake later on in the video but for now i
163. 6:00want you to see we have very strong
164. 6:01impulsive move away
165. 6:04then it comes back retraces and then
166. 6:05have another strong impulsive move away
167. 6:08and comes all the way up here to the
168. 6:09high
169. 6:10okay when we say impulsive price move or
170. 6:13what we refer to as
171. 6:16impulsive price swing going forward
172. 6:18throughout this mentorship
173. 6:20that is the indication that there has
174. 6:22been displacement now displacement is
175. 6:24where
176. 6:25someone with a lot of money okay comes
177. 6:27in the marketplace and they have a
178. 6:29strong conviction to move price higher
179. 6:32we already know that price is going to
180. 6:33be set by central bank so if they're
181. 6:36letting price run this high they're
182. 6:38offering at a higher price as long as
183. 6:40there's buyers coming in
184. 6:41they're going to keep offering that
185. 6:42price there
186. 6:44as long as they keep finding buyers as
187. 6:46they keep raising price up they'll keep
188. 6:48expanding price higher higher until
189. 6:50there is no longer any interest for them
190. 6:52to pair up orders with participants
191. 6:55okay other open interest in the
192. 6:57marketplace so they'll allow price to
193. 6:59retrace a little bit
194. 7:01until they can get more
195. 7:04buy stops above the marketplace it is
196. 7:06not
197. 7:07a
198. 7:08buyer buyer buyer buy a buyer market and
199. 7:11they keep um
200. 7:12stretching price they have already
201. 7:14bought down here and then they're
202. 7:16allowing price to be
203. 7:18uh offered to the marketplace at higher
204. 7:21prices
205. 7:22okay and as that happens
206. 7:24there all they're doing is is selling
207. 7:26off their positions they establish at a
208. 7:28lower low okay
209. 7:30from here the banks are assume long
210. 7:32positions in here they accumulate long
211. 7:34positions once they accumulate a
212. 7:35position they allow price to go higher
213. 7:38okay once that price goes higher higher
214. 7:41higher it keeps going higher
215. 7:43until
216. 7:44their position
217. 7:46is funded and they no longer want any
218. 7:48more
219. 7:50position held
220. 7:51so they're going to be looking for
221. 7:52liquidation areas where they know that
222. 7:54they're going to be willing participants
223. 7:55to buy that's going to be above this old
224. 7:58high back here why would they want to
225. 7:59take price above that oh high here
226. 8:01because there's going to be buy stops on
227. 8:03a fund level that means big money
228. 8:06managed funds will have stop loss orders
229. 8:09right above that high and i'm going to
230. 8:11go into details in this mentorship
231. 8:14about where stops are how to how to pick
232. 8:16out institutional funds
233. 8:17levels where their stops are at where
234. 8:20high
235. 8:20target big money moves are going to
236. 8:22occur all those things will be taught to
237. 8:24you but for now i just want to start you
238. 8:26very small because then there's a lot of
239. 8:28folks that just started with this
240. 8:29mentorship and they've never really been
241. 8:31through the complete library of my uh
242. 8:34concepts or they haven't really exposed
243. 8:36themselves to technical analysis so all
244. 8:37this seems greek to them
245. 8:39and i don't mean that to offend anybody
246. 8:41that may be greek but it's an expression
247. 8:42in the states it means it's alien to
248. 8:44them
249. 8:46but
250. 8:47the first thing i want you to look for
251. 8:48in price is you want to see impulsive
252. 8:51price swings
253. 8:52okay and since we're primarily looking
254. 8:53for discount markets okay and relative
255. 8:56terms to equilibrium
256. 8:58we first have to understand what an
257. 9:00impulse price swing is so let me take
258. 9:02the fib off real quick and go back to
259. 9:04that
260. 9:05price leg right here let me take all
261. 9:07this stuff off over here
262. 9:09okay so we have one big strong impulsive
263. 9:11price swing right here comes off
264. 9:14this low and rallies up
265. 9:16we don't need to know what caused the
266. 9:18buy down here it's not interesting at
267. 9:20all to me i don't care okay
268. 9:23we don't know this price link is gonna
269. 9:25start until
270. 9:27i'm sorry we don't know this price leg
271. 9:29is here okay until it forms so i'm
272. 9:32giving you a perspective
273. 9:34studying in hindsight
274. 9:37the low
275. 9:39to this high in here
276. 9:40okay that rally up or that impulsive
277. 9:42price swing
278. 9:44we only require price to start
279. 9:48coming down off of that and it takes at
280. 9:50least four candles no matter what time
281. 9:52frame you're on you need four candles
282. 9:55okay from when the market makes a low
283. 9:57and starts rallying up
284. 9:59what you're going to look for is once
285. 10:01you see a high form let me zoom in
286. 10:05once you see a high form you need four
287. 10:08candles why four candles you need to
288. 10:10have one candle to the left one candle
289. 10:12in the center of the most highest one
290. 10:14then a lower candle to the right that's
291. 10:16a swing high and then you've got to see
292. 10:17price go lower
293. 10:19when that happens you start waiting for
294. 10:21price to retrace back to equilibrium
295. 10:24now what is equilibrium
296. 10:26equilibrium is a midway point of a price
297. 10:29move
298. 10:34okay so we're measuring the high
299. 10:36from this low you take your fib you draw
300. 10:38it up to
301. 10:39the low and you drop it
302. 10:41equilibrium is over here let me scrunch
303. 10:44this up a little bit more
304. 10:54okay so we have this price leg up
305. 10:58so impulsive price swing goes higher
306. 11:00as soon as we get three candles then and
307. 11:02only then
308. 11:03will we start watching
309. 11:06for price to come down to the
310. 11:07equilibrium price point and that is
311. 11:09basically the fibonacci level 50
312. 11:12okay
313. 11:13we're looking for price to come down to
314. 11:15that level and soon as it comes back to
315. 11:17that level and we're on a daily chart we
316. 11:19go down into a lower time frame and we
317. 11:21hunt buying opportunities now i'm not
318. 11:23teaching you buying entry signals okay
319. 11:26i'm giving you context of how to discern
320. 11:29when the market goes to discount and
321. 11:31when it's at a premium and we're not
322. 11:33trading at premiums okay well i'll teach
323. 11:36you how to use premiums uh the first
324. 11:38video of next week okay so
325. 11:41we're only focusing primarily on
326. 11:43equilibrium versus discount
327. 11:46we have a price swing
328. 11:48that moves from a low aggressively up
329. 11:51we don't do anything
330. 11:53until we start seeing
331. 11:54a down move and it has to happen after
332. 11:56three candles basically making a swing
333. 11:58high
334. 11:59now swing high looks like this
335. 12:03okay you can see it has a high
336. 12:06and a candle to the left that's lower
337. 12:07and a candle to the right that's lower
338. 12:11that's a swing high
339. 12:12and once that swing high forms we're
340. 12:14waiting for the fourth candle
341. 12:17okay to start coming lower in other
342. 12:18words we're looking for four candles to
343. 12:20start turning around when that happens
344. 12:23okay it gives you now you're allowed to
345. 12:26start looking for the market to come
346. 12:27down into equilibrium that means the 50
347. 12:30level okay once you're on a 50 level and
348. 12:34you're in a higher time frame and we
349. 12:35start everything at a daily chart at the
350. 12:38daily chart we know we know now that
351. 12:40between the low here
352. 12:42and the high here
353. 12:44the market now has gone back to
354. 12:45equilibrium so it's at fair value
355. 12:49or at fair market value
356. 12:52if you get something at fair market
357. 12:54value obviously you're not paying a
358. 12:55premium but you're not really getting a
359. 12:57discount either but it's still a neutral
360. 13:00to bullish condition that means you're
361. 13:02not buying at an inflated price
362. 13:05so
363. 13:06this time period right here the market
364. 13:09is offering an opportunity to be long
365. 13:13i'm not going down the lower time frames
366. 13:14today i'm not going to teach you that
367. 13:15today only thing i'm giving you right
368. 13:17now is developing context
369. 13:19around the daily institutional price
370. 13:22levels that are derived at on the daily
371. 13:25chart and all you're looking for is
372. 13:26impulsive price swings first
373. 13:29letting price settle back down into
374. 13:30equilibrium
375. 13:32and then we discern what we're going to
376. 13:33do once we when we get to that level
377. 13:36as you can see without going into lower
378. 13:37time frames the price does rally again
379. 13:39where does it rally back up to its old
380. 13:42institutional order flow reference point
381. 13:44which is an old high back here so it
382. 13:46goes right above that previous high
383. 13:49see that
384. 13:51now the market trades off again and goes
385. 13:53lower so
386. 13:55we have now a new
387. 13:58new range we have to now put the
388. 14:00fibonacci on this high keeping it off
389. 14:02the same low now why did i do that
390. 14:04because this price low has not been
391. 14:06violated
392. 14:07it only retraced down to here and
393. 14:09rallied up again
394. 14:10then we wait for three candles
395. 14:13the high candle to the left there's a
396. 14:15lower one to the right there's a lower
397. 14:17one this is probably a sunday and even
398. 14:19still this is one here
399. 14:20either way you don't want to count
400. 14:22sundays by the way mt4
401. 14:25one else forex ltd does give you the
402. 14:28sunday candle so you gotta factor that
403. 14:30out don't don't count on these candles
404. 14:32because it's a non-event
405. 14:34so that's probably going to end up
406. 14:35becoming
407. 14:36this candle here once you get the down
408. 14:38candle here that the market has
409. 14:41in fact turned it's starting to go lower
410. 14:43notice what's happening here we're not
411. 14:45rushing we don't need to catch the high
412. 14:48okay it gives us all kinds of time to
413. 14:50wait and plan and build an idea about
414. 14:53what it is specifically we're going to
415. 14:54do when price gets to equilibrium
416. 14:57price drops down a little bit more then
417. 14:59it goes up what do we do the whole time
418. 15:00this is happening nothing we're not
419. 15:02doing anything this is a higher time
420. 15:04frame principle most of you are all
421. 15:06begging for a higher time frame
422. 15:07principle to trade with this is the
423. 15:09beginning building blocks to that okay
424. 15:12market trades lower lower what do we do
425. 15:14here nothing
426. 15:15we're not doing anything here yet okay
427. 15:17nothing trading lower lower lower lower
428. 15:20all of a sudden boom it hits equilibrium
429. 15:22over here now we can start studying
430. 15:24price we want to study price
431. 15:28on the lower time frames we'll look for
432. 15:29entries but i'm not teaching you entry
433. 15:32signals here i'm giving you context as
434. 15:34soon as we get to equilibrium we are now
435. 15:37at fair market value so the market is
436. 15:39permitted
437. 15:40to be bought
438. 15:42okay at the banking level they will be
439. 15:44able to buy at these levels because
440. 15:46they're not at a premium
441. 15:48based market
442. 15:50the levels that are trading at this
443. 15:51level here
444. 15:52are at fair market value
445. 15:54now banks are just like anyone else if
446. 15:56you go to the grocery store and you see
447. 15:58steaks for ten dollars of uh i don't
448. 16:01even know what they cost because my wife
449. 16:02does all the shopping the uh if a state
450. 16:04costs ten dollars at the market
451. 16:07and it drops down to eight dollars and
452. 16:09fifty cents a steak that's probably you
453. 16:11know a discount and it may not be that
454. 16:13price i don't know but for the sake of
455. 16:15analogy we're using it
456. 16:18that means that we are now at a discount
457. 16:20anything below equilibrium is now a
458. 16:22discount market
459. 16:24when markets go below equilibrium
460. 16:28they do not spend much time below
461. 16:30equilibrium and there's usually a very
462. 16:33dynamic price move away from that
463. 16:35especially if the context behind the
464. 16:37marketplace is bullish
465. 16:39now
466. 16:41looking at this framework we have here
467. 16:42we had an impulsive price swing here
468. 16:45a little tiny little tracing came back
469. 16:47to equilibrium rallied one more time
470. 16:49took out the high over here and then
471. 16:51sold off
472. 16:52okay went back down into equilibrium
473. 16:55again and went to a discount
474. 16:57below 50
475. 16:58of the impulse price swing
476. 17:02that is now at a discount
477. 17:04so the market on
478. 17:06the banking perspective is that this now
479. 17:08is now at a discount
480. 17:10it is allowed to be bought now you just
481. 17:12don't go indiscriminately in there
482. 17:14trying to buy it just because it goes
483. 17:15back to 50
484. 17:17or less that's not enough you got to
485. 17:19have more information
486. 17:20but for now i just want to give you
487. 17:22when we have a bullish scenario for a
488. 17:26marketplace okay if we think it pairs
489. 17:28bullish
490. 17:29we look for impulsive price swings on
491. 17:32the daily chart the frame higher time
492. 17:34frame ideas there's other trades that
493. 17:37you can take in lower time frames in
494. 17:39between these but for now i want you
495. 17:41primarily focused on just this
496. 17:44because it'll give you all the things
497. 17:45that you've probably been lacking with
498. 17:47higher time frame ideas and
499. 17:49the beginning blocks of directional bias
500. 17:53because it's daily
501. 17:54it gives you a lot of time too you don't
502. 17:56have to be sitting in front of an
503. 17:57intraday chart
504. 17:58you don't have to worry about the boss
505. 17:59catching you doing something and
506. 18:00stealing time at the job
507. 18:02this gives you a lot of flexibility and
508. 18:04time to prepare for an idea to trade on
509. 18:07so
510. 18:08when we get the equilibrium we know that
511. 18:10we are at fair market value it's a
512. 18:12market that could be bought if we are
513. 18:14bullish but we can't buy it
514. 18:16we can't buy above this level up to here
515. 18:18okay that's that's the point what i'm
516. 18:20saying
517. 18:20the best buys come at equilibrium
518. 18:24or less
519. 18:26anything below equilibrium or 50 level
520. 18:28is viewed as a discount
521. 18:31now
522. 18:32the wonderful thing about understanding
523. 18:34this is
524. 18:36when a market's at discount and its
525. 18:38underlying
526. 18:39uh basis is bullish discount prices
527. 18:43don't stay
528. 18:44in the market very long the market's
529. 18:46going to want to run away from that
530. 18:47really quick
531. 18:49because this is a daily chart this isn't
532. 18:50that bad in terms of how much time it's
533. 18:52spent down here
534. 18:53below equilibrium but you can see
535. 18:55finally it
536. 18:56explosively moved away from that and
537. 18:58rallied up through what i asked you guys
538. 19:00to do
539. 19:02in the third
540. 19:03tutorial which was to on your charts
541. 19:05mark out areas of where equal highs
542. 19:08would be
543. 19:09and where old highs would be
544. 19:11the market rallies from that price point
545. 19:13and goes right back up and clears out
546. 19:15these equal highs
547. 19:16when these equal highs are taken out if
548. 19:19you were a trader that only took a long
549. 19:21in this area and it don't have to be an
550. 19:23exact science as far as where it was
551. 19:25we're going to speak in general terms if
552. 19:27you went along somewhere in this small
553. 19:29little consolidation before the
554. 19:31expansion
555. 19:33okay
556. 19:34between buying the 95 big figure roughly
557. 19:38up to
558. 19:39these equal highs that's about 98.50
559. 19:47yeah about 98.50 and you bought around
560. 19:5095.50
561. 19:51sets 300 pips move
562. 19:54on a signal that would have formed it
563. 19:56took a little bit a while
564. 19:57to
565. 19:58come to fruition but based on
566. 20:00equilibrium
567. 20:01and discounting okay you can frame the
568. 20:04ideas in which the market should react
569. 20:07it should be
570. 20:08viewed as a discount across the board
571. 20:11and if it is in fact bullish the banks
572. 20:13will dog pile on this and send the price
573. 20:15higher and it should be with quick
574. 20:17dynamic price action
575. 20:20understanding where it should be
576. 20:21reaching for
577. 20:22above old highs above equal highs
578. 20:25okay above
579. 20:27um
580. 20:28closing a range
581. 20:30okay which we don't really have in here
582. 20:32but i'm just showing you just in one
583. 20:33example here already the first one it's
584. 20:35300 pips
585. 20:37okay
586. 20:38then we have another price move
587. 20:40all the way up here this there's no real
588. 20:42retracements in here because lots we
589. 20:44have a high
590. 20:45equal a little bit lower here and then
591. 20:47here's one here
592. 20:48if we were to measure the low
593. 20:50to this high it doesn't come down to 50
594. 20:52it's nowhere near i can eyeball that you
595. 20:54can probably do that too
596. 20:55but i probably might
597. 20:57let's just do it because i'm probably
598. 20:59going to have
599. 21:00so you folks that are from different
600. 21:02countries have a hard time understanding
601. 21:04my english let alone
602. 21:074x if we would have measured just this
603. 21:09impulsive price swing right here
604. 21:11notice that even though we had
605. 21:13the the candle here lower on the fourth
606. 21:15one it kind of up close but it was still
607. 21:17lower
608. 21:19nothing came back down the equilibrium
609. 21:20it stayed at a high price
610. 21:23and it just kept going higher and higher
611. 21:24and higher and higher higher
612. 21:26so if we go back to adding the fib to
613. 21:29that initial
614. 21:31price low
615. 21:33here
616. 21:34and we stretch it because now we we bro
617. 21:36we broke this high
618. 21:38we're going to keep drawing the fib up
619. 21:40on swings that move up
620. 21:42dynamically so we have this big parent
621. 21:45price swing
622. 21:46so now we're going to wait until price
623. 21:48gets back down to equilibrium when do we
624. 21:50start waiting for that when the market
625. 21:51shows a swing high which it does here
626. 21:54then we start counting to the fourth
627. 21:56candle where it drops so the fourth
628. 21:57candle has to move
629. 22:00lower or be lower
630. 22:02than the highest candle that makes the
631. 22:04swing high it's all it's a very simple
632. 22:06thing and then from there we just start
633. 22:08waiting and we count down every time it
634. 22:10goes down to a newer low low lower low
635. 22:12lower low and finally what's a hit right
636. 22:14here
637. 22:15equilibrium that's that 50 mark since it
638. 22:18does that the market is at a fair market
639. 22:21value so that it can be bought on the
640. 22:23banking level it cannot be bought until
641. 22:26it gets to that level or below
642. 22:28it they won't come in they won't do it
643. 22:31it's not based on fibonacci i'm just
644. 22:33showing you in terms of
645. 22:36equilibrium between old highs and old
646. 22:38lows assists evaluation marker that's
647. 22:40all it is okay so the algo will kick
648. 22:42into a buy mode in here especially if
649. 22:45they have orders
650. 22:47at that level or just a little bit below
651. 22:49it and if they are there you'll know
652. 22:51because the price will react immediately
653. 22:52like it does here it hits it one time it
654. 22:55doesn't have another camera touch it
655. 22:56this one gets close to it but it still
656. 22:58rallies away
657. 22:59okay so now watch what happens we have
658. 23:01another impulse swing here
659. 23:04price moves away from an area where we
660. 23:06expect it to rally why do we expect it
661. 23:07to rally there because between this low
662. 23:10and this high
663. 23:12price should be sensitive here on the
664. 23:13upside and it rallies now watch what
665. 23:15happens this is a big big step i'm going
666. 23:18to keep this fibonacci just like it is
667. 23:20i'm going to add another one
668. 23:22right on the low that starts here and it
669. 23:24runs up
670. 23:25here
671. 23:27see that so between this low
672. 23:29up to this high why are we counting this
673. 23:31swing why are we using this fibonacci
674. 23:33price swing michael and not something
675. 23:34else because this one showed reaction to
676. 23:37want to move away
677. 23:38from an area we would expect it to move
678. 23:41and now watch we have a swing high
679. 23:42here's a high lower high lower high and
680. 23:45this candle is lower than the one on the
681. 23:48highest portion of the swing high so now
682. 23:49we start counting down until price gets
683. 23:51to what equilibrium or less
684. 23:54the next candle doesn't do it this
685. 23:56candle does it goes right down through
686. 23:58equilibrium
687. 23:59down into what we call optimal trade
688. 24:01entry
689. 24:02so when we get below equilibrium
690. 24:06all this time in here look how much time
691. 24:08it gives you opportunities to get in at
692. 24:1062 to 70 and a half percent which is the
693. 24:12optimal trade entry sweet spot
694. 24:15if you look at that
695. 24:16price
696. 24:17gathers up more orders
697. 24:19and rallies away aggressively
698. 24:22watch it happens again now we have
699. 24:24another reference point
700. 24:27this is where we expected price to react
701. 24:30and it did it gives us another price leg
702. 24:33we pull it all the way up here
703. 24:36from this low to this high
704. 24:38we get a high a low a lower low on this
705. 24:41one and we're already below equilibrium
706. 24:45look at the buys of the candle we wick
707. 24:46through it
708. 24:48i'm not going to talk about order blocks
709. 24:49here as much as i want to right now
710. 24:51it's for some of you guys that do know
711. 24:52and block you probably know what i'm
712. 24:54talking about before i would say it
713. 24:56but in here we expect price to be
714. 24:57sensitive in here
715. 24:59okay because we're below 50 percent or
716. 25:01equilibrium we're at a discount price
717. 25:03should not spend much time there at all
718. 25:05it quickly rallies away
719. 25:07okay and it comes back down
720. 25:10i could draw a fib on this low to this
721. 25:12hot matter of fact let me just do it
722. 25:15after all that's the context of what
723. 25:16we're teaching here today right
724. 25:18pulling the fib on all these levels
725. 25:21where there should be reaction
726. 25:25okay market rallies up
727. 25:28here's the swing high the next candle
728. 25:30the fourth candle has got to be lower it
729. 25:32does it trades through equilibrium right
730. 25:34into optimal trade entry does it stay
731. 25:36there long no it rallies up comes back
732. 25:38it doesn't break the high comes back one
733. 25:40more time to equilibrium and then
734. 25:42aggressively moves away
735. 25:44and expands expands expands expands
736. 25:46expands and then finally it gives us a
737. 25:48reversal but nonetheless that right
738. 25:50there from buying in here
739. 25:52to here let's look at that in terms of
740. 25:54range
741. 26:01300 pips again
742. 26:04okay you're not it's not every
743. 26:07not every
744. 26:09day setups okay but it's giving you
745. 26:11significant setups if we look at the
746. 26:13moves that we called in here using what
747. 26:15i'm showing you
748. 26:23if you bought down in here
749. 26:26just to this level here's 140 pips
750. 26:29to here it's 272 pips if you held on to
751. 26:32it
752. 26:34it's 400 pips
753. 26:39this price move in here
754. 26:42price should be sensitive right here
755. 26:44i'll throw it in here order blocks right
756. 26:46here you'll learn about those but the
757. 26:47fibonacci we just showed you it's still
758. 26:49there and watch this
759. 26:52we had a price swing here that reacted
760. 26:55off of a level that should be bullish
761. 26:57here's our new price leg here
762. 26:59we have a high and a higher high so we
763. 27:01have a
764. 27:02higher
765. 27:03magnitude price swing that's going
766. 27:05higher
767. 27:06we wait for the swing high to form down
768. 27:08candles right here equilibrium is right
769. 27:10here into the optimal trade entry which
770. 27:12is discount it's got to be below
771. 27:15equilibrium
772. 27:16if the market is below equilibrium we
773. 27:19are in a discount market and it should
774. 27:22not
775. 27:23go below the old blow it forms
776. 27:26in other words wherever the impulse
777. 27:28price swing is
778. 27:31that low it starts from
779. 27:33it can't go below that so think about
780. 27:35what it's already giving you it's giving
781. 27:36you a framework to work within okay i
782. 27:38don't need to know exactly where i'm
783. 27:40buying at i just know a general area i
784. 27:42can fine tune that down into lower time
785. 27:44frames when we do top-down analysis i'll
786. 27:46teach that but for now
787. 27:49if we understand this is the low we draw
788. 27:50our fit from that that a stop loss has
789. 27:53to be below there
790. 27:54on this time frame
791. 27:56so we can buy in this area here put a
792. 27:58stop loss down here define the risk
793. 28:00between that and then how much of a risk
794. 28:02the reward will we get based on how far
795. 28:04should reach up
796. 28:08every time
797. 28:09every time that price
798. 28:11makes an impulse price swing higher
799. 28:14we just wait for it to come back down
800. 28:16and there's no rush we just wait it
801. 28:18takes three candles on the third candle
802. 28:20it can hit equilibrium and go below it
803. 28:23but we need to just simply wait for the
804. 28:24swing high to form and then you watch it
805. 28:26drop down
806. 28:27once it drops down you know what you're
807. 28:28going to be expecting
808. 28:30the price move should be explosive to
809. 28:32the upside because the market goes back
810. 28:34to a discount
811. 28:37below equilibrium it can be as sensitive
812. 28:40at equilibrium but here's what we're
813. 28:42supposed to be focusing primarily on you
814. 28:44want high odds trades you want high
815. 28:46probability explosive price action moves
816. 28:48in your favor
817. 28:49that happens when it goes below
818. 28:51equilibrium because the market will go
819. 28:53to a very
820. 28:54very suppressed levels and when they go
821. 28:56below equilibrium to a discount level
822. 29:00markets will not sustain discount prices
823. 29:02very long if the underlying pinnings of
824. 29:05the marketplace is bullish so it gives
825. 29:07you two things it gives you a context to
826. 29:09work within when you
827. 29:10for buys and it gives you also
828. 29:13a relative strength study that's built
829. 29:16in it should be sensitive it should be
830. 29:18dynamic price action moves away from
831. 29:20that equilibrium or less
832. 29:22more specifically below equilibrium so
833. 29:25that's where the optimal trade entry
834. 29:27idea came from when i was using the 62
835. 29:29percent of 79 tracement levels that you
836. 29:31see on my fibonaccis
837. 29:35well it's this area 62
838. 29:3770.5
839. 29:39and 79 percent okay and
840. 29:42those levels are very very sensitive not
841. 29:44because of fibonacci sake but because
842. 29:47it's really just measuring how far the
843. 29:49per the current price range has been
844. 29:51the algo had a low down here and it had
845. 29:53a high here this is the total range that
846. 29:55we're trading inside of right now
847. 29:58okay right now
848. 29:59this is
849. 30:02this is right now current as of today um
850. 30:04friday's close of september 16th
851. 30:07okay
852. 30:08so right now we are in the range that's
853. 30:11been defined by the high and the low
854. 30:13here
855. 30:14so that level of equilibrium still
856. 30:16exists which is here
857. 30:18so any by condition that occurs below
858. 30:20this level here
859. 30:22is high probability
860. 30:24what does that mean that means you just
861. 30:26measure every single impulsive price leg
862. 30:28higher
863. 30:29when it moves up
864. 30:32actually let's do this let's shade this
865. 30:34area
866. 30:37and that way we'll understand
867. 30:38that anything below
868. 30:42anything below here
869. 30:45that's in a high probability
870. 30:48or
871. 30:49discount market
872. 30:51okay
873. 30:52so now when we when we understand that
874. 30:54we can define every single price leg
875. 30:57that moves up which is an impulsive
876. 30:58price swing
877. 31:00when it moves higher
878. 31:04all we have to do is measure the new
879. 31:07equilibrium point that which it's
880. 31:09created
881. 31:10and here i'm going to start right here
882. 31:14there's the impulse price leg right
883. 31:16there so we have the low up to the high
884. 31:20swing high
885. 31:21fourth count is going to be down it does
886. 31:22hit equilibrium should it respond yes it
887. 31:25should be dynamic does it go higher yes
888. 31:27it does
889. 31:28makes a new high
890. 31:30where does it go to michael
891. 31:32above a previous high over here and then
892. 31:34it trades back down now here we have
893. 31:37equilibrium again it trades the
894. 31:38equilibrium and then aggressively trades
895. 31:39through it you're probably thinking oh
896. 31:41it failed it does
897. 31:42that's what's going to happen sometimes
898. 31:44you're going to lose money i want you to
899. 31:46understand that it's not going to be
900. 31:47perfect but it's going to give you more
901. 31:49context than you have right now
902. 31:51especially if you're new if you have
903. 31:52been looking at price action before you
904. 31:54probably have never looked at it like
905. 31:55this in terms of valuation between
906. 31:57equilibrium and discount and we're going
907. 31:59to teach the the importance of that the
908. 32:02rest of this month and the remaining
909. 32:04teachings but for now i want to
910. 32:05introduce you the idea of viewing price
911. 32:07in this context
912. 32:10below equilibrium here no discount we
913. 32:12come all the way back down and take out
914. 32:14a stop stop runs is what's going to be a
915. 32:16different profile and if you take a loss
916. 32:18that's what you expect you expect this
917. 32:21occurrence to happen where the market
918. 32:23takes the low out well if it does take
919. 32:25that low out what is it probably really
920. 32:26doing it's taking stops out so that it
921. 32:28should be a turtle soup turtle soup's a
922. 32:31false breakout pattern it went below
923. 32:32that low we should see a responsiveness
924. 32:35that's aggressive that moves higher we
925. 32:37see that here okay
926. 32:39market trades up makes an impulsive
927. 32:41price leg
928. 32:46from that low
929. 32:49all the way up to
930. 32:51here
931. 32:52now watch here's the cool part about
932. 32:54this we have a swing high you have the
933. 32:55high the lower high the lower high and
934. 32:57the fourth candle is down does it ever
935. 32:59get down to equilibrium no so we have no
936. 33:02trade we don't catch anything that keeps
937. 33:03going up no problem i'm worried about
938. 33:05you ain't worried about it
939. 33:06next price leg we look for
940. 33:10okay we have this price leg here
941. 33:14we're only focusing on inside the yellow
942. 33:16area that's the shaded discount
943. 33:19portion of this market the dollar swissy
944. 33:22this current market is a discount below
945. 33:28below
946. 33:30this
947. 33:31line here this this is equilibrium the
948. 33:33top of the yellow shaded area and below
949. 33:35is discount
950. 33:37so the market should be responsive
951. 33:40at levels of discount
952. 33:46after we after we see this high form we
953. 33:48look for the high the swing higher form
954. 33:50and the fourth kilo has got to show
955. 33:51willingness to be lower it does and then
956. 33:53we simply just wait we get wait wait
957. 33:55wait wait wait wait wait wait until it
958. 33:56hits the equilibrium and then we go down
959. 33:58to lower time frames and we look for
960. 34:00trading signals
961. 34:01there may or may not been
962. 34:03they may or may not have rather been one
963. 34:06here okay
964. 34:07i'm gonna say maybe you took one there
965. 34:09and maybe it took and you took a loss
966. 34:10great no problem you took a loss here's
967. 34:13a here's a losing trade here and here's
968. 34:14a losing trade here no problem
969. 34:17we had a winner here the market's gone
970. 34:20down into a deeper discount
971. 34:23look at this swing low over here okay
972. 34:25this is the building blocks of
973. 34:26understanding how institutional overflow
974. 34:28will incorporate
975. 34:29bullish order blocks
976. 34:31when market comes down into a discount
977. 34:33and a deep retracement of this impulsive
978. 34:35price swing
979. 34:36you're looking at the down candles right
980. 34:39at the low
981. 34:40okay if you have two of them
982. 34:41consecutively it begins at the top of
983. 34:44this candle right here
984. 34:46so draw that out in time the market goes
985. 34:48into that area this is a buying
986. 34:50opportunity you would go down to a lower
987. 34:52time frame again the daily chart
988. 34:54is very high it's it's high time frame
989. 34:56so you're going to be able to break that
990. 34:57down into four hours 60 minute 15 minute
991. 35:00and five minutes
992. 35:02look for buying opportunities in that
993. 35:04that area for discounting market
994. 35:07immediately aggressively
995. 35:09moves away
996. 35:11when we get that we get another price
997. 35:14leg and we can take our fibonacci and
998. 35:17measure it to
999. 35:19come up with another
1000. 35:20equilibrium
1001. 35:22doesn't come back down to discount or
1002. 35:24equilibrium in here so we don't have any
1003. 35:25trade here the market rallies again
1004. 35:30from that level we put our low on our
1005. 35:32fibonacci
1006. 35:35and here's our
1007. 35:37high here
1008. 35:38so we have a high a lower high and a
1009. 35:41down candle
1010. 35:42it hits equilibrium we get a response
1011. 35:45rallies up
1012. 35:46trades right back up to an old low
1013. 35:49rejection
1014. 35:50i'm not looking for sell signals we're
1015. 35:52not teaching that here
1016. 35:55now we have a higher
1017. 35:57magnitude price swing
1018. 35:59all this impulsive price swing even
1019. 36:01though it's broken up into three legs
1020. 36:03you still have to measure that because
1021. 36:04that's the end
1022. 36:06there it's the parent price swing that's
1023. 36:08currently being traded in right there
1024. 36:10okay so
1025. 36:11this movement here when price gets down
1026. 36:13to equilibrium we would study and see if
1027. 36:15there's a reason to be a buyer there's
1028. 36:16an order block over here so it may be in
1029. 36:18something to look at in a lower time
1030. 36:19frame
1031. 36:20maybe there was a loss maybe you didn't
1032. 36:21take a trade i don't know but price goes
1033. 36:24down into a deeper discount trades right
1034. 36:26into
1035. 36:28bullish overblock
1036. 36:31price hits it does it spend much time
1037. 36:32there no it rallies aggressively and it
1038. 36:35fills in an area where price had already
1039. 36:37moved in rather quickly
1040. 36:39and i'll just toss this in there from
1041. 36:40for
1042. 36:41teasing purposes it goes right up to the
1043. 36:43bottom
1044. 36:45of this bullish candle which is a
1045. 36:46bearish order block and that's an area
1046. 36:48where you would look to take profits on
1047. 36:50a long position
1048. 36:52if you did something like that
1049. 36:55buy and say you bought it right here in
1050. 36:56the middle less range here and you got
1051. 36:58out there
1052. 37:00that's 175 pips
1053. 37:03factoring sped by 170 pips
1054. 37:06how can anyone be upset with something
1055. 37:08like that when you're waiting around
1056. 37:09you're not getting a million trades okay
1057. 37:11there's not a lot of this is the daily
1058. 37:13chart so you're getting about one per
1059. 37:15week
1060. 37:16really good high odds opportunities so
1061. 37:18when you see moves like this okay you
1062. 37:20can see uh there's a willingness to to
1063. 37:23recapitalize these levels based on the
1064. 37:25fact that market goes to a discount
1065. 37:29uh we have the same price swing back
1066. 37:30here you always use the same ranges that
1067. 37:32we're
1068. 37:33currently in
1069. 37:35this range is still in effect
1070. 37:37mark comes back down into the 79 certain
1071. 37:39channel level which is still a deep
1072. 37:41discount market
1073. 37:42and also it blows out an old low so
1074. 37:45there may be some stops down here that
1075. 37:47the market takes out now think if the
1076. 37:49market's going to go higher generally
1077. 37:53now think if the market's going to go
1078. 37:55higher
1079. 37:56and it's bullish and it comes down below
1080. 37:58an old low
1081. 38:00that's generally going to be a stop loss
1082. 38:02run that was the first thing i taught in
1083. 38:042010 to look for dynamic price moves if
1084. 38:07you understand what a bullish market is
1085. 38:10okay you want to define every time the
1086. 38:13market creates a low and then violates
1087. 38:15that low if it does that generally that
1088. 38:17means that the market makers or the
1089. 38:19institutional banking algo will go down
1090. 38:21below the lows and gather up any orders
1091. 38:24that will be resting below those orders
1092. 38:26i'm below that low this low here it's
1093. 38:28violated here immediately rejects and
1094. 38:30goes higher this low here
1095. 38:33it goes below here rejects immediately
1096. 38:35and goes higher
1097. 38:36this low here it goes down below it
1098. 38:38rejects immediately goes higher so now
1099. 38:40think about what i've just given you
1100. 38:42i've given you framework to map out what
1101. 38:44equilibrium is okay what is that
1102. 38:47and then i told you what the benefit of
1103. 38:49knowing what below equilibrium is it's
1104. 38:51discount
1105. 38:52so when you're looking for a market when
1106. 38:54you're looking at a range in the
1107. 38:55marketplace and the market goes below an
1108. 38:58old low that gives you context to look
1109. 39:00for what stop raids below the lows and
1110. 39:03there should be a reaction going higher
1111. 39:05if the market's bullish
1112. 39:07if the market's underlying tone is
1113. 39:09bullish then we're going to frame all
1114. 39:10that stuff but for now i want you to
1115. 39:11study go in your charts and you'll see a
1116. 39:14plethora of these things occurring all
1117. 39:16the time
1118. 39:17and it gives you the building blocks of
1119. 39:19knowing what trading setups form how the
1120. 39:21market should react and you'll start
1121. 39:23seeing these things before they happen
1122. 39:25you want to study them in the past first
1123. 39:27but then start looking for them to
1124. 39:29anticipate
1125. 39:30future moves based on what i'm teaching
1126. 39:32here
1127. 39:34so again in summary we understand that
1128. 39:36equilibrium is the midway point of a
1129. 39:38range we need an impulsive price leg
1130. 39:41higher
1131. 39:42once we identify that an individual
1132. 39:45impulse price swing
1133. 39:47we
1134. 39:48run our fibonacci from the low up to the
1135. 39:49high and then we wait for four candles
1136. 39:52once this fourth candle is lower than
1137. 39:54the highest one we start waiting for
1138. 39:56price to come down into equilibrium when
1139. 39:58it does that
1140. 39:59we can go in and hunt for buying
1141. 40:01opportunities on the lower time frames
1142. 40:03we blend in institutional order flow
1143. 40:05ideas like the order blocks mitigation
1144. 40:07blocks breakers turtle soups
1145. 40:10okay and optimal trade entries all those
1146. 40:13things either one of them any one of
1147. 40:15them can be applied for a buying
1148. 40:16scenario but if you ever see the
1149. 40:19conditions that's bullish and a low is
1150. 40:22swept out
1151. 40:23that's when you anticipate a turtle suit
1152. 40:26the question i get all the time is how
1153. 40:27do i know if the market's going to keep
1154. 40:29going lower or if it's going to just go
1155. 40:32below an old low and then rally up this
1156. 40:34is the beginning basis point of knowing
1157. 40:36when that occurs and when not to expect
1158. 40:38it to uh to turn around
1159. 40:41so
1160. 40:42we have the market reacting off of this
1161. 40:45it rallies up now we have another price
1162. 40:47leg right in here it took out an old
1163. 40:49high so
1164. 40:51we can go over here draw our fibonacci
1165. 40:53on that low
1166. 40:56up to this high
1167. 40:59price comes down to equilibrium we start
1168. 41:01hunting for buying opportunities right
1169. 41:02in here in a lower time frame i don't
1170. 41:04know if there's anything there yet
1171. 41:05you'll have to go and look in your
1172. 41:07charts yourself but we go down into 62
1173. 41:09percentation level which is now discount
1174. 41:12okay so
1175. 41:14when we identify equilibrium that's the
1176. 41:1750 level
1177. 41:19when price goes below 50 percent it it's
1178. 41:21at a discount when is it the highest
1179. 41:24probable
1180. 41:26degree of bullishness at a discount
1181. 41:29price
1182. 41:30that's when you have this
1183. 41:36the 62 to 79 tracement level
1184. 41:40in that area right there that's the deep
1185. 41:42discount that we look for
1186. 41:44in bullish conditions and why fibonacci
1187. 41:4762 to 79 transfer levels work
1188. 41:50any other time fibonacci is going to
1189. 41:52fail you all the time it's the
1190. 41:54foundations behind price action that
1191. 41:57cause these indicators to work sometimes
1192. 42:00even overbought sold indicators will
1193. 42:03work if you apply these ideas to them
1194. 42:06bullish divergence uh trend following
1195. 42:09hidden diversions okay or type 2 trend
1196. 42:11following which is uh really what it is
1197. 42:13developed and discovered by nick van
1198. 42:15nice and not george lane by the way
1199. 42:17the
1200. 42:19the ideas have to come by way of
1201. 42:21sound
1202. 42:23price action understanding if it's not
1203. 42:26there based on what the foundations of
1204. 42:29price action are implying then it's not
1205. 42:31going to work it doesn't matter what in
1206. 42:33here you slap on your chart you need to
1207. 42:35have the underpinnings of the market
1208. 42:37being dictated by price action not by
1209. 42:40mathematically derived or crunching of
1210. 42:42past price to give you some
1211. 42:44prognostication it doesn't work like
1212. 42:46that the market will not respond to an
1213. 42:48indicator the indicator is only
1214. 42:50reflecting a mathematical historical
1215. 42:53reference of something that price has
1216. 42:55already done
1217. 42:56that has no basis on what the market's
1218. 42:58going to do going forward so when we
1219. 42:59look at markets we have to number one
1220. 43:01define what these price ranges are that
1221. 43:04means number one if we're bullish all
1222. 43:06we're doing is waiting around what are
1223. 43:07we waiting around for michael we're
1224. 43:08waiting for a price move well i'm
1225. 43:10missing all that yeah you probably are
1226. 43:12and that's patience
1227. 43:14traders that make money professionally
1228. 43:16or manage funds are not chasing
1229. 43:19everything that goes on in the
1230. 43:20marketplace they know exactly what
1231. 43:22they're looking for
1232. 43:23once you get a price run like this it's
1233. 43:25an impulsive price swing then you wait
1234. 43:28what are you waiting for four candles up
1235. 43:30here when the fourth one comes then you
1236. 43:32simply wait for it to come back down the
1237. 43:33equilibrium once it gets to equilibrium
1238. 43:36you can look for a signal
1239. 43:38but i'm stressing the difference between
1240. 43:40equilibrium versus discount is you want
1241. 43:42it to now go below equilibrium into
1242. 43:4662
1243. 43:47minimum
1244. 43:48down into 79 tracement when it does that
1245. 43:50that's when you have the highest
1246. 43:52probable degree of bullishness while the
1247. 43:55markets in a discount
1248. 43:57then you should see
1249. 43:58explosive price acting to the upside
1250. 44:01if you're using a daily chart you'll be
1251. 44:03able to use this as a day trader as a
1252. 44:05short-term trader a position trader a
1253. 44:07swing trader
1254. 44:09nothing has been changed in the delivery
1255. 44:11of what i look for
1256. 44:13relative to bullish order blocks
1257. 44:16turtle soups all that business here's
1258. 44:18the cool thing
1259. 44:20if we understand that we're bullish in
1260. 44:22the discount zone like we've had here
1261. 44:25defined by this fibonacci level okay
1262. 44:28down in this area here
1263. 44:29we're looking for specific things to
1264. 44:32happen we're not just looking at um well
1265. 44:36i just use the term
1266. 44:37zone but not like zone like supply and
1267. 44:39demand zone in this
1268. 44:42section or or well let's say here it's
1269. 44:44not because it's not really defined in
1270. 44:45the sense that it's supplying demand
1271. 44:47zones but
1272. 44:48it's a total area of valuation
1273. 44:52where between equilibrium and less
1274. 44:54then it's in a discount
1275. 44:57so
1276. 44:57if you're going to have this as a range
1277. 44:59to work with them what inside of the
1278. 45:01range are you really specifically
1279. 45:02looking for okay well you're looking for
1280. 45:05specific reference points in terms of
1281. 45:07institutional order flow that means a
1282. 45:09stop run like we defined here
1283. 45:12and here
1284. 45:13where the market went lower than a
1285. 45:15previous low in here and then you
1286. 45:17anticipate what the market to expand to
1287. 45:18the upside
1288. 45:20if we understand that that's the
1289. 45:21occurrence that should take place
1290. 45:23when we're down here and we're looking
1291. 45:24for bison areas so if it goes below
1292. 45:27equilibrium and blows out a fibonacci
1293. 45:29level and you take a loss just find the
1294. 45:31low that it just blew out and then
1295. 45:32expect the buy signal there
1296. 45:35then and then you're buying at a really
1297. 45:37deep discount then you're going to get
1298. 45:38it explosive move the upside so now if
1299. 45:40we're using
1300. 45:42false breaks below previous lows down
1301. 45:44here what can you do to get out
1302. 45:47of a profitable position the same thing
1303. 45:50you look for a high
1304. 45:52if you're buying down here after stops
1305. 45:53been run you take your profit once this
1306. 45:55market goes above a previous high
1307. 45:58over here
1308. 46:00the market makes a lower low it rallies
1309. 46:03okay it rallies up
1310. 46:05starts to retrace where you want to get
1311. 46:07out at when it gets above
1312. 46:08old high here's an ohio you take your
1313. 46:10profits right there but wait a minute
1314. 46:11michael wait a minute it didn't go above
1315. 46:14this one here what if i would have held
1316. 46:15on to that one then you would have been
1317. 46:16greedy
1318. 46:19he gave you two chances to do it the
1319. 46:21market made a new high here
1320. 46:23turn back a little around and then one
1321. 46:24more time punched above it
1322. 46:26get out above an old high
1323. 46:28markets will distribute or let me say it
1324. 46:31this way market makers and
1325. 46:33smart money will distribute long
1326. 46:35positions above old highs it doesn't
1327. 46:38have to be the oldest high
1328. 46:40it didn't go over above this one either
1329. 46:42you didn't go above this one you don't
1330. 46:43need it to once it creates a high they
1331. 46:45they only allow price to retrace to
1332. 46:47allow stops to build up above an old
1333. 46:49high that's how they engineer liquidity
1334. 46:52so when engineered liquidity comes in
1335. 46:54the marketplace in the form of a buy
1336. 46:55stop protecting a short position that
1337. 46:56somebody out there
1338. 46:58you know foolishly put in there then the
1339. 47:00run price above it hitting those buy
1340. 47:02stops those buy stocks become market
1341. 47:03orders to buy the market and they sell
1342. 47:05to those buy stops their long positions
1343. 47:07they accumulated back here that's all
1344. 47:10institutional order flow is
1345. 47:12understanding the storyline between what
1346. 47:14the highs and the lows are giving you
1347. 47:18if you frame the ranges
1348. 47:20based on your understanding of what the
1349. 47:22market should be bullish or bearish and
1350. 47:24that's easy don't worry about that
1351. 47:26we'll get to that but for now i'm trying
1352. 47:28to trying to institute
1353. 47:31a
1354. 47:32foundation for looking at price on a
1355. 47:34higher time frame and then
1356. 47:37managing your expectations based on what
1357. 47:39you see on this time frame and and also
1358. 47:42building the beginning basis to your
1359. 47:44anticipatory skills for looking for
1360. 47:47future moves
1361. 47:49wait a minute michael
1362. 47:51this is this is it you just form-fitted
1363. 47:53this one
1364. 47:55this is probably just only working on
1365. 47:56this chart here
1366. 47:58what happens if you go into
1367. 48:00um
1368. 48:01what happens if you go into a hourly
1369. 48:03chart
1370. 48:04suddenly it's all going gonna be
1371. 48:05different right
1372. 48:07it's gonna be different
1373. 48:08it's all gonna be different well
1374. 48:13here we have a price leg here okay
1375. 48:15impulsive price swing
1376. 48:18you map that out okay
1377. 48:22swing high fourth candle doesn't get
1378. 48:24back down to equilibrium no problem we
1379. 48:26wait for it to uh do it it doesn't do it
1380. 48:28makes another leg higher what happened
1381. 48:30we missed it don't worry about it don't
1382. 48:32chase it
1383. 48:33you know exactly what you're waiting for
1384. 48:35price makes the new higher high so we
1385. 48:37have the low to the high what are we
1386. 48:39waiting for price to get down to
1387. 48:40equilibrium okay great but what happens
1388. 48:42when it gets below that we're in a
1389. 48:44discount market it has to go into the
1390. 48:46what 62 retracement level minimum right
1391. 48:48here it does does it stay there long no
1392. 48:50way it doesn't stay that long what
1393. 48:52happens the price moves away from it
1394. 48:55and then what does it do
1395. 48:56it comes back down into equilibrium
1396. 48:58again and it expands again
1397. 49:00it consolidates a little bit makes a
1398. 49:02short-term high
1399. 49:04where do you take your profits at
1400. 49:05michael above old time uh short-term
1401. 49:07high
1402. 49:08boom it rallies above it knocks that
1403. 49:10high out and even comes back and clears
1404. 49:12this one out too just by a little bit
1405. 49:13and then look what happens it retraces
1406. 49:15all the way back down to equilibrium
1407. 49:16again does it spend time much there no
1408. 49:19rallies back up where does it go back to
1409. 49:21the bottom of this bullish
1410. 49:22uh candle which is a bearish order block
1411. 49:24fills it right to the right to the pip
1412. 49:27and i'm gonna tell you something i hate
1413. 49:28this pair i literally hate this pair
1414. 49:32with a passion because it's just a
1415. 49:34sneaky pair like the japanese yen and
1416. 49:37you swiss folks and uh japanese folks
1417. 49:39please don't take offense to that i'm
1418. 49:40just i don't like your currencies put
1419. 49:42that way
1420. 49:44the uh the open online candle is 97.68
1421. 49:48and the high on this candle comes in at
1422. 49:50exactly 97.68 so you take your profits
1423. 49:53right there not at that high you exit
1424. 49:55before you get to that remember we
1425. 49:56always want to get out before we get to
1426. 49:57the actual price leg now we have another
1427. 50:00higher high
1428. 50:02right here see that so we're going to
1429. 50:04wait for price to get down to
1430. 50:05equilibrium and less it does it here
1431. 50:07again 62 percent
1432. 50:0962 retracement level should it stay
1433. 50:11there long no does it no it doesn't it
1434. 50:14rallies away retraces it back to
1435. 50:15equilibrium again and then what do we
1436. 50:16expect at equilibrium what did i teach
1437. 50:18you about the algo it goes from
1438. 50:21consolidation which is always going to
1439. 50:22be at equilibrium
1440. 50:24to expansion what's it expanding to
1441. 50:27to liquidity where's the liquidity at
1442. 50:29right here before it takes off going
1443. 50:31vertical where is the liquidity at it's
1444. 50:33above this high and above this high here
1445. 50:35what is it buy stops somebody wants to
1446. 50:37protect a short position so if they're
1447. 50:39going to buy down here as smart money
1448. 50:41they're going to sell it to who somebody
1449. 50:43that wants to buy at a higher price the
1450. 50:45buy stops here and the buy stops here
1451. 50:47look what happens it goes up a little
1452. 50:49bit small little retracement and then
1453. 50:50expands aggressively what's it going for
1454. 50:52it stops right here and then right here
1455. 50:56then once we go above look what happens
1456. 50:59this movement here what did i teach you
1457. 51:02i teach
1458. 51:04that markets move in intraday price
1459. 51:06action
1460. 51:07in
1461. 51:08grades of
1462. 51:1010
1463. 51:11which is 10
1464. 51:1310 and
1465. 51:1520 pip ranges above a high that's how
1466. 51:16far they'll reach for a stop
1467. 51:18boom
1468. 51:19there you go there's your stop run on
1469. 51:22equal highs remember i told you on your
1470. 51:24charts mark out areas where there's
1471. 51:26equal highs they're too clean
1472. 51:28the market's going to want to run there
1473. 51:30so anything below 50 is discount
1474. 51:34but it can go back to equilibrium and
1475. 51:36consolidate and then expand
1476. 51:38so i'm blending
1477. 51:39two components
1478. 51:41giving you introduction to the uh
1479. 51:43the interbank algo where you'll know
1480. 51:46what the
1481. 51:46what the price engines were gonna do
1482. 51:49before they do it they're going to offer
1483. 51:50the price higher when it's time to do so
1484. 51:53but they're going to have to capitalize
1485. 51:55discounted markets
1486. 51:57before it goes higher it won't just go
1487. 51:59straight up for no reason it doesn't it
1488. 52:01doesn't operate like that the market has
1489. 52:02to come back down to a discount and
1490. 52:05below equilibrium
1491. 52:07then you get explosive moves then it may
1492. 52:08come back to equilibrium
1493. 52:10to consolidate and wait for an expansion
1494. 52:13then the expansion comes and you look
1495. 52:14for the locality above the marketplace
1496. 52:17so the difference between equilibrium is
1497. 52:19yes it's fair market value at
1498. 52:21equilibrium
1499. 52:23we as traders we want to trade at
1500. 52:24discounts we have to get below
1501. 52:26equilibrium when it gets into 62
1502. 52:29retracement level or down into 70.5 or
1503. 52:32even 79 traditional levels you really
1504. 52:34need to be considering being interested
1505. 52:36in being long on those markets when your
1506. 52:38underlying bullishness is there
1507. 52:40waiting for expansion
1508. 52:42blending in all the tools that you'll
1509. 52:43learn
1510. 52:45look at the low here
1511. 52:47okay we're below equilibrium here's a
1512. 52:49low it comes all the way down hits those
1513. 52:50right there what would you expect even
1514. 52:52if you didn't see the fibonacci what
1515. 52:54would you expect
1516. 52:55that this is a turtle suit
1517. 52:57it's a run on stops it quickly rejects
1518. 52:59comes back down what if it's going to go
1519. 53:01lower michael it shouldn't why because
1520. 53:02it already took the stops out
1521. 53:04so it's only retracing a little bit if
1522. 53:06you took another fibonacci
1523. 53:09and you put it on this range because
1524. 53:10we're looking at an hourly chart here
1525. 53:12this would be a smaller price leg in a
1526. 53:14lower time frame look what it does it
1527. 53:16goes right back down into optimal trade
1528. 53:17entry again below equilibrium
1529. 53:20optimal trade entry and does it spend
1530. 53:21much time down there no it rallies up
1531. 53:23hits the 62
1532. 53:2462 retracement level again and then
1533. 53:27expands boom takes off
1534. 53:29there's no magic in fibonacci none
1535. 53:33the only thing it helps you do is
1536. 53:34visually see what equilibrium is in
1537. 53:37price
1538. 53:38and then
1539. 53:40below equilibrium where is a good price
1540. 53:42to enter at a discount and here's the
1541. 53:44benefit
1542. 53:45if it goes lower than the optimal trade
1543. 53:48entry between 62 and seven times chasing
1544. 53:49labels and your online bullishness is
1545. 53:52there wait for the turtles to buy
1546. 53:55boom it's that easy it's that easy
1547. 53:58and you don't believe me i know you
1548. 54:00don't believe me that's the beautiful
1549. 54:01part about this and that's why i want
1550. 54:02you to go into your charts and look for
1551. 54:04it
1552. 54:05if we have a bullish market
1553. 54:07okay and we know that markets are
1554. 54:09retracing you won't need to see the
1555. 54:11fibonacci you can just eyeball it
1556. 54:13between this low and this high midway
1557. 54:16points about right here
1558. 54:18this market move below that is below
1559. 54:20equilibrium it's at a discount and guess
1560. 54:22what it cleared out stops over here
1561. 54:25what's it going to do rally
1562. 54:27it rallies up
1563. 54:29equal lows in here too clean market
1564. 54:32drops down what's it doing coming down
1565. 54:34the equilibrium fibonacci levels
1566. 54:36optimal trade entry i'm not going to put
1567. 54:38the fib on it you can do it from this
1568. 54:40low to this high
1569. 54:41goes right down into optimal trade entry
1570. 54:43explodes why because it cleared out the
1571. 54:44equal lows down here boom explodes up to
1572. 54:46the outside
1573. 54:48what about this low over here michael
1574. 54:50sure comes down cleans it out what
1575. 54:52should happen it should expand it's
1576. 54:54bullish we're in a discount market
1577. 54:56they're only coming down to take the
1578. 54:57stops below the marketplace out these
1579. 55:00are sell stops why would the market
1580. 55:01makers want to take the market down to
1581. 55:03take out sell stops because it injects
1582. 55:04people that want to sell to them that
1583. 55:06want to buy
1584. 55:08they get counter parties to their buy
1585. 55:09orders by having the sell stops tripped
1586. 55:11below that low boom explodes
1587. 55:16this low right here
1588. 55:18violated right here not by much it
1589. 55:19doesn't need to be much once it hits
1590. 55:21that level then the orders go hot bang
1591. 55:23it explodes up the upside
1592. 55:25well it doesn't make a new high michael
1593. 55:26it doesn't have to you get exited right
1594. 55:28here at your old order blocks
1595. 55:31you don't need to have
1596. 55:33everything out there to come in
1597. 55:34alignment the stars don't have to align
1598. 55:36to give you a profitable trade you just
1599. 55:38need a couple things that make sense
1600. 55:40they have to start with
1601. 55:42equilibrium to discount for buys it has
1602. 55:45to happen if you don't get that
1603. 55:47you're not going to have these explosive
1604. 55:49buy signals it's going to fall on your
1605. 55:51lap it's not just knowing give me a buy
1606. 55:53signal michael tell me when to get in
1607. 55:54get out this stuff this is why i told
1608. 55:56you you have to understand things
1609. 55:58before just looking for bullish order
1610. 56:00blocks before turtle suit longs before
1611. 56:02optimal training entry longs before
1612. 56:04stochastic divergence bullishly
1613. 56:07none of those things work outside of
1614. 56:09understanding the central tenant to what
1615. 56:11a market is at equilibrium or below it
1616. 56:14at discount that's a favorable buying
1617. 56:16market anything apart from that
1618. 56:19you stay away from it you wait
1619. 56:21or look for the opposite side of the
1620. 56:23market which is what we'll talk about
1621. 56:24next week when we look at equilibrium
1622. 56:26versus premium