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Prices on These Cards Are Spiking - Legit or Manipulated? + One Piece TCG Market Update — Transcript

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0:00Hello, and welcome to Piece of Insight.
0:03In today's video, we're going to be
0:04doing a quick market update to see where
0:06we stand with our SP 500 and Dow indexes
0:10for both SPs and booster boxes. But,
0:12we're going to spend most of the video
0:13looking at where there have been recent
0:15buyouts in the market and ask the
0:17question, is there a legitimate demand
0:19driving these buyouts or is it just
0:22market manipulation? So, with that,
0:24let's jump right in. All right, let's
0:26start by quickly looking at the SPs that
0:28are currently valued at $500 or more.
0:30So, over the last 2 weeks, we have seen
0:32them go up 7.3%, which is the most
0:35movement that we have seen in a 2-week
0:36period in a positive direction since we
0:38started tracking this. Over the last 4
0:40weeks, we're up 7.8%. So, the Nami on
0:43the left is actually the big winner of
0:45the week. It increased a significant
0:47amount over the last week. It's hard to
0:49tell whether or not this is speculation
0:51or whether people legitimately feel that
0:53the EBO3 SPs hit a bottom
0:57and now need to continue to move up.
0:58I'll be honest, they still feel quite
1:00expensive to me, but I know a lot of
1:01people feel really passionately about
1:04them. So, it's entirely possible I'm
1:05wrong here and that, you know, $1,000 is
1:08going to have looked like a good price a
1:10year from now. Really hard to say. The
1:12wanted Luffy poster, on the other hand,
1:14is the big loser of the week as it
1:15continues its sort of freefall from its
1:18all-time highs.
1:20As I've said in every video that this
1:22has gone down, I don't understand this.
1:24To me, this is like one of the most
1:25iconic cards of all time. So, I think
1:27that if the this is a card you wanted to
1:29add to your collection, now would
1:30probably pick it up, but, you know, I
1:33continue to be wrong about this. So,
1:34maybe there's something I'm not seeing.
1:36If anybody's got an idea in the
1:37comments, please hit me up because I
1:38would love to know, but, again, for me,
1:41I absolutely adore this card and I think
1:43long-term it's going to be a winner.
1:44Okay, so let's talk about booster boxes.
1:46So, over the last 2 weeks, we've seen
1:48booster boxes go up 4.3%, which you'll
1:50notice is slightly less than the SPs.
1:53The SPs tend to be more volatile, so
1:54they were down more over the previous
1:56couple months than the booster boxes
1:58were, but when they go up, they tend to
1:59go up a little bit faster. So, that's
2:01kind of consistent with what we expect.
2:03Over the four-week period, we've seen
2:05boxes increase by 5.8%
2:08continuing the positive trend from the
2:10last 2 weeks. The big winner this week
2:12is OP14, which has gone from, you know,
2:15around its bottom of $200 up to like
2:17$265 now. This makes a ton of sense to
2:20me. I've been saying for a long time I
2:22thought OP14 was the best value booster
2:24box out there, so I'm not surprised to
2:26see it make this move. I do think a year
2:29or 2 years from now we'll see it
2:31somewhere between OP06 and OP11 in terms
2:34of quality, so $350, $400. Whether it's
2:37going to make that type of move in the
2:38short term, it's really, really hard to
2:39say. I think it's fairly priced at its
2:42current price. I don't see it as being
2:43like wildly undervalued anymore.
2:45>> [snorts]
2:46>> And then actually the only box to go
2:48down this week was the OP01 white
2:50bottoms, which fell a little bit. To be
2:52honest, this is probably just a small
2:53sample size thing, so I wouldn't read
2:55into this too much. It seems in general
2:57like all the boxes are moving in a
2:58positive direction. Okay, so let's jump
3:00into the meat of what I want to talk
3:02about this week. So, let's start by
3:04talking about the gold SPs from EB02.
3:07Now, this is not something new, but over
3:10the last 6 months or so, people have
3:12come to realize that these cards are
3:14incredibly rare and have been buying
3:16them out. I was talking to somebody
3:17recently who said that when the set
3:19first came out, they sold their gold
3:21leader Luffy for like 175 bucks, and now
3:24it's like a $5,000 plus card. So, this
3:27is an example of the type of thing that,
3:30although the buyout has been relatively
3:31slow, I think the train has already left
3:34the station. I'm going to show you why,
3:35but I also think that this is justified,
3:38and I'm going to talk about why that is
3:39as well. But first, let me show you some
3:41evidence that I think the train has left
3:43the station. If you go on eBay right
3:45now, these are the listings that you're
3:46going to see for the gold SPs from EB02.
3:49Now, you will notice that there are no
3:51bargains to be had anywhere. This bow is
3:53a Chinese one.
3:54Uh, you know, all of these cards in
3:56graded condition are many thousand
3:58dollars. Uh, and even the ones that are
4:00in non-graded condition
4:02uh, are going for a lot of money. You're
4:03probably thinking these are eBay
4:04listings, they haven't been sold,
4:06they're also looking for best offers.
4:07People are probably just testing the
4:09price ceilings for these cards.
4:11Absolutely true. 100% agree. But also,
4:14if we look over at TCGPlayer, you will
4:16see that all of the listings have been
4:18cleaned out for most of these cards.
4:20Even the lower tier cards, there were
4:22only a handful of options that are
4:24available for like less than $800.
4:28And I'm going to show you the best one
4:29because if you're still looking to pick
4:31one up, this may be legitimately your
4:33last chance to get one of any character
4:35for under $500. And unfortunately, that
4:37character is Foxy. So, if you were like
4:40me and you got hit with a slow slow beam
4:42and did not actually buy one of these
4:44cards early, this is sort of what you're
4:47stuck with. I actually just bought a
4:49lightly played Kiros for like 200 bucks
4:51just because
4:53I wanted to have some exposure to the
4:54gold SPs just to have one and I like
4:57Kiros, so I was fine with that. But
4:59unless you're willing to spend
5:00significant coin, this is basically the
5:02best option that's available to you. So,
5:04some of the other things that we're
5:05going to talk about are not this far
5:07into having been like completely bought
5:09out where the supply is gone, but I
5:12wanted to highlight this set to show
5:13what the future could look like for some
5:15of these other sets.
5:17Now, why do I think this is justified?
5:19So, if we've talked about previously on
5:21this channel, the gold SPs, my estimate
5:23is that there's like 385 of each of
5:26these cards. They were one per case,
5:29there's 26 in the set, and at an
5:31estimated print run of around 10,000,
5:33that is the smallest number of cards
5:36printed in any One Piece set. So, these
5:39are essentially the rarest cards that
5:40you can pull out of the box if my
5:42estimates are correct. They are about
5:45three times as rare each as a red manga
5:47Luffy for context. And so for that
5:49reason, there is never going to be a lot
5:52of supply for these, and the most supply
5:54that was ever going to exist existed
5:56over the past few months because people
5:58were still trying to sell them after
6:00initially opening them. So, this is the
6:02type of thing where they're going to
6:03come to market so infrequently, a small
6:06number of people have the ability to
6:08really move the market price if they
6:10want it. I think we're going to get to a
6:12point in a couple years where having one
6:13of each of these is like the ultimate
6:15flex that a collector can have. And so
6:17for that reason, I think even the lower
6:19cost ones are going to be incredibly
6:23coveted just because of how scarce they
6:25are. Okay, so let's talk about some
6:27things that haven't been totally bought
6:28out yet. And naturally, the first thing
6:30we're going to talk about is the first
6:31anniversary collection.
6:33I've seen other creators point out that
6:35this has undergone a buyout over the
6:37last week or so,
6:39and I'm not surprised to see this, to be
6:41honest. It's actually funny. I recorded
6:43a segment in a previous video talking
6:45about how I thought this was going to
6:46get bought out in the near future, and I
6:48cut it because I was like afraid that it
6:50was going to lead to like excess
6:52speculation. Well, it turns out we're
6:54here now anyway, so now we're going to
6:55talk about it. So, over the last few
6:57days, we've seen this jump from like,
7:00you know, $2,800
7:02all the way up to $4,000.
7:04And it's not just the sealed box. What's
7:07interesting to me about this set is
7:08there really is no good reason to keep
7:11it sealed. It's not like a booster box
7:13where maybe there's an amazing chase
7:14card inside, and if you open it, you
7:16sort of ruin the illusion that you might
7:17pull something. Here, what's in the box
7:20is exactly what you get. So, for me, I
7:22would much rather have the cards and the
7:24playmat in the box and all that stuff
7:25actually out and just keep them together
7:27than to have a brown box in my closet
7:30that cost $4,000. That's just me, but I
7:33imagine for that reason the brown box is
7:35going to be pretty scarce. So, maybe it
7:37goes up because of that, but as a
7:38collector, like why you would keep that,
7:40you know, doesn't make as much sense to
7:42me.
7:43Um but we're not limited to just the
7:44sealed product in terms of it moving up
7:46quickly. If we look at the individual
7:48cards, this Luffy, for example,
7:51has gone up from I think it was like 300
7:56and some odd dollars not that long ago,
7:58yeah. Uh and now it's selling for over
8:01$400. The most recent sales were $800
8:05uh in near mint, 450 in lightly played.
8:08But here's the most important thing. If
8:09you look at the number of listings,
8:12uh
8:12there are not very many and all of them
8:14are slightly expensive. You know, you
8:16have a slightly warped one for $1,000
8:18and otherwise you're going to $1,700.
8:21So, I think the question is
8:23is this crazy for this price? So, the
8:26first thing I wanted to look at to try
8:27to answer this question is how rare is
8:30the first anniversary set actually? If
8:32you've watched this channel before, you
8:33know I like to use graded cards to try
8:35to estimate the population of things.
8:37This is not an exact science by any
8:39means, but I think it helps to give us a
8:40ballpark of what the population might
8:43be. And so, right now between Beckett
8:45and PSA, there are around 1,420
8:50of these Luffys that have been graded.
8:52This is an old card, so I think that
8:55there has been plenty of time for them
8:57to be graded. I think one could argue
8:59that it hasn't been that expensive, so
9:00maybe we'll see more cards get sent in
9:02to be graded. And I think that's totally
9:04fair. So, I actually modified my
9:06estimate up to account for the fact that
9:08it hasn't been that expensive of a card
9:10until recently. But even with that, I'm
9:12estimating that there's around 3,000 of
9:15these cards out there, which would put
9:17it on the scale as less rare than the
9:19Chopper manga and significantly more
9:21rare than the OP05 Gear 5 Luffy manga,
9:24than the Oda sig. So, assuming these
9:27estimates are not wildly wrong, this is
9:30quite a rare card and this would be
9:31among one of the rarer cards that you
9:33could pull in a box. And so, for that
9:36reason, I think even at like $800, it
9:39doesn't strike me as a ridiculous price
9:41given what the other Luffy's are going
9:43for. Now, I'm not saying that I think
9:44that this card is equivalent to those
9:46cards, right? There's a lot of reason to
9:47like those other cards better, but I do
9:49think there are a lot of positive things
9:50to say for this. It's old, it's first
9:52anniversary, it's like a traditional
9:54Japanese style that also reflects Wano.
9:57And so, for that reason, I thought it
9:58was undervalued for a while, and so I'm
10:00seeing this buy up as being kind of
10:02justified. The other thing I'm going to
10:03say, too, is that these cards are
10:05extremely difficult to grade. The
10:07centering is awful on these cards. It's
10:11so awful, in fact, that BGS has never
10:13given a 10 to one of these cards that
10:15it's graded, and I'm pretty sure I saw
10:16recently that one of these cards got a
10:186.5 in centering from BGS. I honestly
10:21didn't even know BGS had centering
10:22standards that went to 6.5, so
10:25I don't really know how that's possible.
10:27The point is, though, if you're looking
10:29for something more exclusive than a
10:30standard PSA 10, these are going to be
10:32really, really hard to find. So, let me
10:35give you an example. So, I don't know
10:37exactly what this sold for because it
10:38was a 2800 or best offer situation, but
10:42even at $2800, let's assume it sold for
10:44full price.
10:45Small seller, not great photos, all
10:47those things. The population on this is
10:5010
10:51in a BGS 10. And the gem rate is like
10:54shockingly low compared to One Piece
10:55cards for BGS 10. There are zero black
10:58labels because Beckett's never given a
10:5910 in centering.
11:01To me, this is the type of like hyper
11:03rare card in a high grade that I am
11:06shocked doesn't command more of a
11:07premium. I don't play in these
11:09incredibly expensive cards, so I don't
11:11know the market quite as well as some of
11:13the cheaper things, so you should of
11:14course take all of this with a grain of
11:16salt, but I just see this as being a
11:18wildly expensive card in the future
11:21given its incredibly low population. And
11:23it's not just the Luffy, either. The
11:25Nami, uh last I checked, the population
11:27was around 10, as well, and all all them
11:30seem to have a population of less than
11:3135. Now, if you're wondering why I'm
11:33hedging on this instead of just giving
11:34you the answer, the answer is because
11:36BGS's population report is broken.
11:38There's absolutely no way to verify any
11:39of this information right now. Super,
11:41super helpful. So, the next question is,
11:44is this limited to just the Luffy card
11:45or is it extending to all the other
11:46cards as well? So, we have the Zoro card
11:49here that again is following the same
11:50trend. The lowest available is now $550
11:54after it having been available for like
11:55250 bucks for a while. We're seeing the
11:59same thing here with the Chopper. I
12:01think long-term the Luffy will be the
12:03most expensive followed by the Zoro, but
12:05I actually think the Chopper is probably
12:06going to end up being third just because
12:08the art on this one I think is
12:09fantastic. We're looking at like $500
12:12here and of course that's the lowest
12:14listing, but even sales, you know, $350
12:18in the last couple days, over $300. So,
12:21as we see the sealed box prices move up,
12:23it's not surprising that we're going to
12:24see all of these prices move up. You
12:26know, Robin the lowest available is 500.
12:29Nami the lowest available is 350, which
12:32of the ones we've seen so far, you know,
12:33seems like not too bad of a deal. You
12:36know, the Sanji is 200, the Brook is
12:38250,
12:40the Usopp is 200, the Frankie is 200,
12:44right? The Jinbe is 200. So, I think
12:46that clearly someone has decided that
12:49the floor for these cards should be
12:50around $200 each and is sort of price
12:54enforcing at that level.
12:56The reason why I think that even though
12:57this is clearly a buyout that this is
12:59legitimate is because there's not going
13:02to be a lot of supply to come in and
13:04backfill it.
13:05For context, I want to compare this to
13:06another card that we have seen jump in
13:08price recently to show why I think this
13:11is legitimate. So, if you look at the
13:13Santa Chopper, I know we talked about
13:14this previously, there has been a
13:16concerted effort to try to buy this card
13:18out to raise its price all the way up
13:20from like $70 up to around $250.
13:23But, what you're seeing is that we have
13:25new cards that are coming in at below
13:26those prices, and people are
13:28consistently trying to buy them out.
13:30But, there's still a ton of supply
13:32because there are actually a lot of
13:34these cards out there, right? If you
13:36look at how many have sold over the last
13:37year, 1,519.
13:41That's a pretty high population. Now,
13:42let's compare that to the Luffy.
13:46How many first anniversary Luffy's have
13:47sold over the last year?
13:49333, right? So, there just isn't as much
13:52supply of these first anniversary cards
13:54to come in and backfill and replace the
13:57supply that has been purchased. Now, I
13:58also just want to be clear since
14:00whenever I talk about cards, I don't
14:02want to give the appearance of
14:03impropriety of trying to pump my own
14:05stuff. I do love this set. I have this
14:07set. You know, could be motivated
14:09reasoning on my part. I just want to be
14:11up front about that so you can decide
14:12for yourself whether or not you agree
14:14with what I have to say here. So, let's
14:16look at some other cards that have been
14:17pumped recently. So, again, sticking
14:19with the theme of Chopper, we have the
14:21Egghead Chopper. We talked about this a
14:22couple weeks ago. You know, I said I
14:24like this at $5, it's now $18. I still
14:26like the card, but I think $18 is too
14:28much. This feels like a deliberate pump
14:30to me, and there are probably a decent
14:32number of these out there, so I expect
14:34this to come back down. We also have
14:35this Wano Chopper here that is clearly
14:37being pumped. You know, this card was
14:40$35 a month ago and is now the lowest
14:44listing is 85, and it's seeing sales up
14:47in those prices. You know, I think
14:49clearly some people have decided like,
14:51"We're going to buy out all the cute
14:52Choppers and see which ones stick."
14:54Again, I'm not expecting this to stick.
14:56This is not like a super low population
14:58card, so I would expect it will fall
15:00back down at some point. Okay, so
15:02obviously we talked about the Chopper
15:03from the Gift Collection set, but I also
15:06think the Gift Collection set is
15:07starting to get a little bit of a buyout
15:08here as well. The lowest listed for this
15:11Luffy is now $67. It was like $28 back
15:16in March, and we're seeing multiple
15:18sales at that price, you know, trying to
15:20lift this up.
15:21This one's kind of in between for me. I
15:23do really like the gift collection and I
15:26did think that this was a bit underrated
15:28for a while. Again, it's relatively old
15:30set. I think the art is really, really
15:31interesting. I honestly like all the
15:33cards in this set and they're not super
15:36duper common. But again, like the
15:38Chopper, we've seen 1,500 sold over the
15:40last year. So, this is not like an
15:42incredibly scarce card. So,
15:44do I think it's ridiculous at $67? I
15:46don't. I like it better at like 50
15:48bucks, but I wouldn't go crazy on this
15:50either, even though I do sort of like
15:52the potential of this card long-term.
15:54You know, another card from this set I
15:55like is the Nami card. This one is also
15:58seeing a bit of a buyout here. Again, it
16:00was in the low 40s for a while. Now,
16:03it's selling for like 69 across the
16:06board with a relatively high higher than
16:08typical volume. So, again, same caveat
16:11as the Luffy. I do like the card. I
16:13think it's decent long-term. I just
16:14wouldn't go crazy here. I think there's
16:15a decent chance these fall back down a
16:17little bit. But if you're afraid of
16:18missing out on these, I also think
16:20there's a chance that they go up
16:21further. So, I think that's the risk.
16:23Another card that we talked about
16:24recently was this Luffy alt secret. When
16:27we talked about it, it was $25. This has
16:30seen a massive buyout all the way up to
16:33$65
16:35with sales, you know, as high as $75
16:38just 2 days ago. I'm not really sure
16:40what's going on here. I obviously did
16:42think this was underrated at $25, but at
16:45$65, it does seem quite high to me. I
16:49expect that people will come and
16:50backfill
16:52this to bring the price down a little
16:53bit. So, you know, I think 65 is too
16:56high. I think 25 is too low. So, I don't
16:58know, 40, 50 dollars if it falls back
17:00into that price range, you know, I
17:01wouldn't hate it, but I would probably
17:03wait a little bit on this card given how
17:05rapidly it's increased. Okay, so one
17:08other category of cards I want to talk
17:09about are
17:11something that hasn't been bought out
17:12yet, but given what we've been seeing in
17:13the market, I think might be one of the
17:15next ones to go. And so, let's talk
17:18about the One Piece Film Red promo
17:20cards. Okay, why do I think that this is
17:22might get bought out? Well, first of
17:24all, I think we're starting to see
17:25little signs of it in the increased
17:27volume. There've been a number of sales
17:29over the last couple days of people
17:30trying to stock up on larger quantities.
17:33That is often indicative of a buyout
17:35potentially on the horizon. But, the
17:37other reason I like these cards is
17:39because if you're seeing the buyouts in
17:41the first anniversary collection, and if
17:44you're seeing the buyouts in the gift
17:45collection, you're probably going,
17:47"Well, what's kind of similar to those
17:48things?" And one of those things is this
17:50set. So, what does it have in common?
17:52Well, first, it's pretty old like the
17:54other ones, you know, it's almost
17:55certainly not going to be reprinted. And
17:57also, the artistic style is really,
17:59really interesting. Now, you might not
18:00love it, but it is interesting. And so,
18:04we have the Luffy here. It's still
18:05around $20. We have the Zoro, that's
18:08still only $18.
18:11We have the Nami for only $21. You know,
18:14all of these cards have started to see
18:16like a slight uptick in prices, but they
18:18haven't exploded yet, and there's still
18:20a decent amount of supply still
18:21available. So, if these are cards that
18:24you're interested in, I think now is
18:25probably the time to get on the train
18:27before they get bought out. You know, in
18:29terms of buying the entire product, $130
18:32for 12 cards, that's like an average of
18:34slightly more than $10 a card, and you
18:36have all the Straw Hats in here in
18:39addition to Uta. So, I think if you like
18:41the artistic style, this is a totally
18:43reasonable pickup. One other thing I did
18:44want to flag here is that while the like
18:46complete set of the One Piece Red could
18:48go much quicker because there's much
18:50more limited supply, there is a lot of
18:52supply of these individual cards out
18:53there. So much so that Mystic TCG
18:55actually has 133
18:58of this Nico Robin, and this is not the
19:00only one that they have over 100 of. If
19:02you are interested in these cards, I
19:04recommend jumping on it, but I think you
19:05probably have a little bit of time
19:06because it would be very difficult for
19:08someone to buy out the entire supply of
19:09these cards all that quickly. The last
19:11market observation I want to make today
19:13is that last weekend I actually went to
19:15a card show to help a friend vend, and I
19:17talked to a lot of the One Piece vendors
19:19there, and it was really interesting to
19:20hear them say that things were really,
19:22really slow. They were not getting a lot
19:24of sales, particularly at the lower end.
19:26And what I wanted to point out here is
19:27that most of the changes we're seeing in
19:29the One Piece market, although they look
19:30very positive, seem to be driven by a
19:33relatively small number of individuals,
19:36or at least a class of very sort of
19:39well-to-do, high-spending individuals
19:42that are pulling up the value of the
19:43highest cards,
19:44um rather than seeing sort of a return
19:47of casual collectors into the game. So,
19:49I do think, while I don't think this is
19:50cause for immediate concern, I do think
19:52that this is something we want to keep
19:53an eye on, because, you know, again,
19:55being at the show and seeing like tons
19:58and tons of people coming to buy cheap
20:00Pokémon cards, taking their kids to buy
20:02Pokémon cards, we weren't seeing that in
20:04One Piece, right? One Piece seems to be
20:05like a wealthy collector's game. And I
20:09do think that's a bit of a risk
20:10long-term. So, I think we want to do
20:12what we can to help grow the lower end
20:14um of this market as well. So, that's
20:16something I just think people should
20:17keep in mind. So, that's all I have
20:19today. I hope this was useful. As
20:21always, you know, I would appreciate if
20:22you would like, if you would comment and
20:24tell me what you agreed with, disagreed
20:25with. Please help me understand why the
20:27Luffy wanted the poster keeps falling
20:28down in the comments. Uh if you haven't
20:31already, please subscribe. If you're
20:33thinking about picking up any of the
20:34cards we talked about today, or frankly
20:36any card, uh we have our TCG affiliate
20:38link uh in the description of the video.
20:40It helps us out a ton and doesn't cost
20:42you anything. As always, I appreciate
20:44your time, and I will see you in the
20:45next one.

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